Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 158 - 11/7/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 158 - 11/7/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 158 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. The work week rolls on, it's
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almost over before you know it. We got a big Friday tomorrow and
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then another huge weekend of college football and Pro
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Football. So a lot going on right now in
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the sports betting market, not just football obviously NBANHL.
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And thank you to the the sports betting calendar for now giving
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us college basketball back in our lives.
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So a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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I have a 5 pack of sweats that I'm excited to share with you.
1:01
You guys know the drill. Let's try to get three or more
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eek out a winning day, and I'm looking first at a big Thursday
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Night Football matchup because we have the Bengals and the
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Ravens. Interesting kind of lack of line
1:12
movement here. That caught my eye, as well as a
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player prop that I will be playing.
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So I got a side and a player prop and then we're going to
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look at college football. There's two games tonight.
1:20
I could have maybe leaned or forced another, but I'm going to
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stick with one. That reminds me a lot of NIU
1:27
from last night who came through for the team and then playing
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college basketball going right back to our model of a added
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game, extra game. Public has no interest, but wise
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guys are moving the number and then back to the ice.
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NHL play here with a good sharp line move and a couple of really
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good system matches. So 5 pack overall.
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Thursday Night Football pro in college, college hoops in NHL.
1:48
Now looking back to our last night guys winning night 3 and 2
1:51
+ 0.5 units. But I'll kind of say this, you
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know, there's some nights where you go three and two, eke out
1:57
1/2 you and you're like oh, good night.
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I'm kind of annoyed because we should have probably been better
2:01
than three and two last night. We were close to a sweep or a
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four and one. The winners.
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NIU, love that play again. Dog to favorite.
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NIU opened as a dog, flipped to a favorite.
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Only half the tickets with 70% money.
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NIU, that fishy team on a losing skid versus Western Michigan
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playing well. NIU rolls.
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You love to see it. Got the under in Ohio, Kent
2:21
State, Ohio kept scoring and scoring 41 nothing, but luckily
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Kent State didn't score at all. Got her under 52 1/2 there.
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I also got a nice hit with Cal State Northridge against
2:33
Lemoyne. The fact that we had a added
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game, extra game, but a good sharp line move.
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Northridge came through for the team.
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So we're sitting three and O with two games remaining.
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I'm like, hey, maybe, maybe we'll go four and one.
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Maybe we'll even go 5 and O. But what's frustrating to me
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first was that NBA game, the Sixers and the Clippers, because
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ended up going under under 214 F, We had over 214 F but two
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things. Did you guys notice that?
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That total closed at like 215 and a half 216.
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So we beat the closing line. Unfortunately, the Sixers got
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terrible offensive production, Tyrese Maxi and ended up getting
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hurt. And also they missed so many
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bunnies. If you watch that game, it was
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an ESPN game. So many just, you know, rebounds
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around the offensive boards and they could not put it back.
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So I think we're right spot on there.
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I just couldn't come through unfortunately, with the over.
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And then the other frustrating one was San Diego.
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Did anyone stay up late and watch that game?
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I was one of those crazy people that stayed up until, I don't
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know, 1:00 AM watching that thing.
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But they lose by one point. And the frustrating part about
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that is if you watch that game, the last minute or so, they had
3:39
multiple opportunities at the free throw line to tie or take
3:42
the lead. They even had the ball to end
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the game, to score and win the game.
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They pretty much strike out on all these late opportunities.
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But again, beat the closing line on that one because we had, what
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was it? San Diego got money line them at
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-3 They closed 3 1/2 or 4. So again, three and two, half a
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unit. I will take that every time.
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That's a winning night. But we kind of felt like, or at
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least I felt like there was a little, little more meat on that
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bone. So let's see we can keep it
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going tonight and have another winning night.
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So I want to start off with, of course, every time we get to
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Thursday, you know what it is Thursday Night Football,
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Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens biggest, most heavily bet
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game of the night. I'm looking at a couple angles
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here for this game. So let's set the stage then I'll
4:25
give you my play on the side, my take on the total and then a
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player prop for you. So 8:15 PM Eastern Time tonight,
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as always, the annoying, the annoyance of having to go
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through Amazon Prime. Get that ready to go.
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But anyway, Bengals 4:00 and 5:00.
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They have 1/3 of their last four.
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They just took down the Raiders 4124 easily covered as an 8
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point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Ravens, remember
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they started O and two, they've won six of their last seven just
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took down the Broncos 41 to 10, easily covering as a nine point
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home favorite. So what do we see across the
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market here? Well, I would argue this is a
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kind of sharp line freeze on the Bengals.
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I'm going Bengals in the points here, guys.
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This game opened Baltimore listed as a six point home
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favorite and it's not majorly lopsided, but you're currently
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getting 57% of spread bets laying the points with
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Baltimore. But we've pretty much stayed
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right at six open -6 Baltimore stay -6 Baltimore.
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I did notice some books briefly got up to 6 1/2 with the hook
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and was also important to me is that the hook didn't really stay
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there very long. It immediately got back down to
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six. So that tells me one in terms of
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a line freeze, Publix, Baltimore.
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But oddsmakers don't want to move the number tells me
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liability Cincy. And then also don't want to give
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out the hook to Cincy because every time throughout the week
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it was available, it got, you know, scooped up and brought
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right back down. So reading between the lines,
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looks like a line freeze here on Cincinnati.
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I think the next move is important.
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Obviously, you're sitting on a key number of 6, not quite the
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seven and the three, but right up there.
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I think that's your third most common key number.
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But do we rise up to 6 1/2? If so, good sign for Baltimore.
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Do we get down to 5 1/2? That's a good sign here.
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Late money for Cincinnati. So pretty much every book is at
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six. One book FanDuel was at 5 1/2,
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but another book, ESPN bet, was hanging 6 1/2.
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So I jumped on ESPN bet with the hook plus 6 1/2.
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It's the only book right now that has the hook available.
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Obviously the six should be widely available, but I'm going
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with the plus 6 1/2 ESPN bet. Give me a good number there.
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But Bengals, aside from the line freeze, they are contrarian and
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heavily bet game. They're only getting 43% of
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spread bets and then we get into some system matches here.
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A lot of them are popping on the Bengals.
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Rd. dogs getting 6 points or more, 19 and eight against the
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spread. 70% this year. And again, it's been a year of
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surprisingly overs and and favorites, but still those big
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Rd. dogs are doing well since he also was a divisional dog.
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Both teams from the AFC North. Lack of built in familiarity as
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well as the rivalry aspect levels the playing field,
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benefits the team getting points.
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Primetime dogs, they haven't been great this year, but if you
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just isolate primetime dogs that are getting 6 points or more,
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they're four and two against the spread this season they're 55
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and 37 ATS 60% since 2020. Joe Burrow by the way, he's been
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good as a dog, 18 and 10 against the spread 64%.
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And Lamar Jackson last four years he's only 5 and 14 against
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the spread, 26% when he's laying 6 points or more.
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So a lot of angles pointing towards Cincy, some angles here
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to to fade Baltimore with Jackson winning a lot of these
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games, but not covering these big spreads.
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If you remember, Bengals probably should have won.
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It was a 4138 game. I think it was an overtime game
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earlier this year. So maybe some, you know, another
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tight game on tap. That's what I'm hoping for.
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But I'm going to go contrarian with this line freeze and a lot
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of system matches. I'm on Bengals again, plus 6 1/2
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shop out shop round for the hook because ESPN bet has it.
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But again, most shops are at six.
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In terms of the total, I look at it one of two ways.
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It's pretty clear there's a lot of over money that came in the
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total open around 50 1/2 high total.
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It got bet up all the way to 53 1/2.
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Public's going over 65% of bets. Again, it was a 3128 game last
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time or something like that. It was a very high scoring game.
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Feels like it's going to be another high scoring game.
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That's what the public's saying. However, now that you got all
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the way to 53 1/2, starting to come back down 52 1/2, some
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books even 52. So I'm going to lay off this
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total. But I was actually thinking like
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if I could have gotten that 53 1/2 under, I would have bought
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low or sold high. However way you want to look at
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it and gone under there, it's contrarian.
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There's late movement coming back.
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Outdoor divisional unders are 55% this season or sorry, since
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2021. Prime time unders when the total
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is 47 or more, there's 64 percent, 25 and 14 since 2022.
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And then just a classic high total again, 52 1/2 and college
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is is pretty low. NFL, that's pretty high.
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If you look at when the total is 50 or more, those high totals,
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the under is 7 and four this year and it's 30 and 1567% since
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2022. Also, both teams are offensively
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explosive, but they're kind of slower in terms of pace.
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Ravens are 17th, Bengals are 26th.
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Now, there's nothing in the way of weather.
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Baltimore looks like pretty good night here tonight at M&T Bank
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Stadium. It's going to be clear skies,
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low 60s, high 50s, five mile per hour winds, nothing, nothing
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crazy in the way of weather. So again, clearly went up.
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If anything, I'd lean, you know, taking that buy low under at
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this point. But I'm going to bypass the
9:28
total because I feel more confident in the spread.
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I got Bengals plus 6 1/2 ESPN bet again, most shops at six
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player prop for you. I'm going to focus on a wide
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receiver tonight, Zay Flowers, the pride of Boston College.
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I can tell you in New England, college football really is not
9:45
meaningful. It's not that important.
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But this is one guy that I do remember when he was on BC, he
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was really good. He was the first round pick last
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year for Baltimore. But anyway, I want to focus on
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Zay Flowers going over his receiving yardage now.
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It was 59 1/2 earlier today. It's now been bet up to 61 1/2.
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I got over 61 1/2 at FanDuel. Caesar's is also offering.
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It's more juiced up. But again, shop around with
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these props because bet MGM is 62 1/2, Fanatics is 65 1/2.
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So again, if you want to get the best of the number now, FanDuel
10:18
or Caesar's appears to be the best, but I got over 61 1/2 for
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Zay Flowers. Here's my thought process.
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One game day. We've seen this total rise 59
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1/2 to 61 half. So you could argue it's either
10:28
public or sharp, but either way, I respect game day movement.
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His prop is going up tells me some money came in on the over
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Flowers in particular. He's gone over this number in
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four of his last five games. He's also gone over this number
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in seven of his last 10 home games.
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He's becoming a, you know, pretty go to guy when it comes
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to Lamar Jackson. He's very quick slot receiver.
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Last week he had 127 yards on five catches against the
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Broncos. And then I also like it when you
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get a second divisional matchup against an opponent cuz you can
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go back to the first box score. And Zay Flowers, that first game
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against Cincinnati, that was back in week five, he had 7
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catches for 111 yards. So hopefully some familiarity
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benefit to Flowers here as he kind of tore up since he's
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backfield or defensive backfield last time anyway, since he
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they're giving up 212 passing yards per game at 17th in the
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NFL. So bottom half.
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And also I'm thinking, hey, it's a high total.
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The total has been rising. It's coming back down, but it's
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a high toll that's going up. The weather is perfect.
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I think it's good conditions here to to bank on some offense
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and hopefully have Zay Flowers have a good night receiving.
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So I took Zay Flowers over 61 1/2 receiving yards.
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Maybe you were proactive and got a 59 1/2.
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But my last angle here, Rhythm, our friends at Rhythm, they're
11:46
predicting Zay Flowers with 68.5 receiving yards.
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So even though it's gone up a couple yards throughout the day,
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you're still looking at around A7 yard cushion with Rhythm
11:56
predicting or projecting him to go over this number.
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So I'm going to follow the movement, the match up, the tail
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of the tape here at the Rhythm edge.
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I'm going Zay Flowers over 61 1/2 receiving yards and I'm
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going Bengals plus 6 1/2. Those are my bets for Thursday
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Night Football. Now let's look at some more
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Thursday Night Football, this time in college football.
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Two games tonight, Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, App
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State, Coastal. I'm going to focus on App State
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and Coastal. This is a pretty big game.
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Let me just pull up my my data for this one, but let me just
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find it for you. OK, so big match up here.
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Obviously in the Sunbelt app state and coastal are both four
12:42
and four on the year, but this one reminds me quite a bit.
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Deja Vu of Northern Illinois last night, if you guys
12:48
remember, Northern Illinois came through for us as a great hit.
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But the whole point is that it was our favorite move or one of
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our favorite dog to fave. You open a Northern Illinois
12:57
getting a point, they flip to a what do they close at?
13:00
Like -2 two and a half. Well guess what, App State is in
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the same position tonight. App State open this game as a
13:08
one point or 1 1/2 point dog. Now they flipped to a 1 1/2
13:12
point favorite. So just like NIU dog to fave
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line move. Why is that important?
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Because it tells me when you flip the designation of who
13:20
should win the game, it took a lot of money to flip that
13:23
designation. So I always look out for dog to
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fave line moves. Now, aside from the dog to fave
13:27
in the eerily similar spot spot to Northern Illinois last night,
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I also really like the bet split on this game.
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Northern, sorry, Northern Illinois, App state is getting
13:37
57% of spread bets. So you know, slight public
13:41
support here, but they're taking in 75% of dollars, so little
13:46
more than half the tickets, but heavy money, 75%.
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And remember, when we look at UFC, we want basically low bets,
13:53
higher dollars in a line move. That's what you're getting here.
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Low bets, higher dollars in a line move toward App State.
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I'm also going to bank on a little bit of recent
14:01
performance. I do like to buy low, sell high,
14:03
but I was reading about how kind of both of these teams are
14:05
trending recently and they've kind of gone in opposite
14:08
directions. Like if you look at App State,
14:11
they struggled to start the year.
14:13
App State opened what, 2 and 4? But now they put it together.
14:17
They beat Georgia State, they beat Old Dominion, they won two
14:19
straight. They're playing pretty well.
14:21
It's been the opposite for Coastal Carolina.
14:23
Coastal Carolina actually open the year 4 and one.
14:27
They've lost three straight and they are not playing very well.
14:31
They're giving up a ton of yardage defensively and they're
14:33
kind of going in the opposite direction.
14:35
So normally I would say let's buy low, sell high.
14:38
Like, you know, if coastal had the line move and they haven't
14:41
been playing as well recently, that would interest me.
14:44
But this maybe is just a don't outsmart yourself.
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App state's playing better. Coastal struggling.
14:50
We got a good sharp bet split. We got a dog to fave line move.
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I'm going to go right back to the well, same play as NIU last
14:56
night. Give me app state you want to
14:58
lay the 1 1/2 and and save some juice.
15:00
I totally, totally can't argue with that.
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But I'm going to stay true to my money lining of short favorites
15:06
open, you know, 1 1/2. Now it's 1 1/2 the other way.
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Think about it this way. Odds makers are saying this
15:11
could be a very close game. So I'd hate to win by 1 and lose
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my 1 1/2. So I'm going to go money line
15:16
here. I got app state at -118 at
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FanDuel. Most books are around -120 so
15:23
again, if you can save two cents, I'll I'll do it every
15:26
time. But just like NIU, app state fit
15:29
in the bill tonight. Let's go app state baby, we got
15:31
app state money line at -118 Now let's go over to some college
15:36
basketball. By the way guys, isn't it great?
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I'm thinking to the days in the summer when it was like
15:40
baseball, which I don't get me wrong, I love betting baseball
15:43
every day, but that was all we had.
15:45
Now with this huge calendar of all different sports going on, I
15:48
feel like we have a little bit more of an edge because we have
15:51
more games to choose from. We can be selective.
15:54
With that being said, let's go right back to college hoops
15:57
where again had a great hit Cal State Northridge last night, San
16:00
Diego, boy, did you let me down. If you watch that game, you know
16:03
what I'm talking about. Anyway, big slate today.
16:06
There's there's like 25 games basically, but I'm going to go
16:10
to kind of my go to, pun intended, I guess when it comes
16:12
to college hoops. Added game, extra game line,
16:16
move system match with Ken Palm and rhythm.
16:19
That's really kind of what I like to see.
16:21
So the game I landed on 8:00 game, game 3O6761, game 3O6762,
16:28
Bucknell out on the road against southern Indiana.
16:34
So this one caught my eye on the first kind of notable angle here
16:37
of it's extremely low bet. You know, it's an added game,
16:40
extra game. We talked about this yesterday.
16:42
The six digit ID number. It's hard to find on your app.
16:45
It's hard to find if you're walking up to the window.
16:47
So therefore it's lower bet and public doesn't care much about
16:50
these games. They're not sexy, they're not
16:52
interesting, they're not big name teams.
16:54
You know, they want to bet on the bigger name games that are
16:56
on ESPN. So with that being said, line
16:59
moves are meaningful in these low back games.
17:01
So the first thing I noticed is a line move toward Bucknell.
17:04
I'm going Bucknell money line guys.
17:06
I got him at -155. Bucknell opened as around A2 or
17:11
2 1/2 point Rd. Favorite added game, extra game,
17:14
very low bet. Bucknell is now up to -3 So we
17:18
have a low back game. Obscure line moves, as I like to
17:21
call them. Line move is going toward
17:22
Bucknell. Now Bucknell on the spread is
17:25
getting 72% bets, 80% dollars. On the money line, they're
17:29
getting 73% bets, 84% dollars. Normally I would say, you know,
17:33
mid 70% bets public. I don't like that.
17:37
But remember, public's not betting these tiny little games.
17:39
So even though by definition 7375% is public, this tells me a
17:45
low back game. It's probably more quote UN
17:47
quote sharp better. So we've targeted this one.
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So don't. My whole point being, don't be
17:51
scared off by 70% ticket counts in low back games.
17:54
It's not as public as you think. Lines going to Bucknell.
17:58
I should mention Bucknell comes in one and O.
18:01
They just beat Delaware 8573 on the road.
18:04
Southern Indiana's O and one they lost to DePaul 80 to 78 in
18:07
overtime. But aside from the line move
18:10
toward Bucknell, here's where we get into some interesting stuff.
18:14
Ken Palm has Bucknell winning by three, which again, 3 right now
18:20
you're laying it, you're really not getting an edge.
18:21
But on the money line, you know, he's got him winning the game by
18:24
three. That's a good thing.
18:26
But I also look at the Ken Palm ratings because they're
18:29
important to me because they're based on data.
18:31
It's not based on like voters. But if you look at this match up
18:34
here with Bucknell, Ken Palm has Bucknell ranked 210 in the
18:40
country. That doesn't sound very good,
18:42
right? 210.
18:43
He's got Southern Indiana ranked 3/16, so Bucknell is literally
18:48
ranked 106 spots higher than Southern and Indiana tells me
18:52
again, Bucknell is the better team.
18:54
Then I pop open my Rhythm app, look at my Rhythm prediction
18:58
here for the money line and it tells me play Bucknell they have
19:02
Rhythm has Bucknell winning 72.7 to 70.6.
19:07
So it's not a blowout, it's not a 10 point win.
19:10
But Ken Palm tells me Bucknell should win the game.
19:12
Rhythm tells me Bucknell should win the game and the lines
19:16
moving toward Bucknell in a obscure low bet line move.
19:19
So that's good enough for me guys.
19:20
I'm going Bucknell on the money line.
19:23
Win the damn game at -155 Now to finish up the pod, let's go to
19:29
the NHL. Looking at a match up here
19:31
tonight. It's a big slate.
19:33
You have what, 12 games overall? Only four games tomorrow.
19:36
Again, don't get me started. I don't know why they don't
19:39
spread these games out to have a ton one night and way less the
19:42
other night. But anyway, that being said, I'm
19:44
going to look at a late night game, 10:30 PM Eastern Time, the
19:47
Vancouver Canucks visiting the LA Kings.
19:51
Now I must admit, I feel like the last two times I've bet
19:53
against the Kings, they've beaten me.
19:55
So let's get some revenge tonight.
19:56
I'm going Vancouver here guys. I'll tell you why going into it.
19:59
Vancouver 62 and 3:00. They have won two straight.
20:04
Kings also looking good, 8, three and three.
20:06
They've also won two straight. But this to me is an angle to
20:11
play Vancouver. I'm going Canucks here guys.
20:13
The first thing I noticed. Is a really good sharp line move
20:16
toward Vancouver. A lot of books actually open
20:18
Vancouver like a very short minus one O 5 dog.
20:22
You open the kings around a -, 115 favorite.
20:25
We've now flipped dog to favorite in favor of Vancouver.
20:28
Vancouver minus one O 5. Now Vancouver is up to -120 -,
20:33
125 S again, hockey is not a very heavily bet sport to move
20:37
that number 20 cents or so. That's that's notable.
20:41
Tells me a lot of big money came in on Vancouver.
20:43
Vancouver has a really good bet split at DraftKings.
20:46
Vancouver is only getting 45% of money line bets, but they're
20:50
taking into account 80% of money line dollars.
20:53
So less than half the tickets, but 8 out of 10 bets tells me we
20:56
got a really good bet split here on Vancouver.
20:59
Also rest first, tired now. Both teams last played on the
21:03
5th, so a couple nights ago that would be Tuesday, but prior to
21:07
that the Kings played on Monday and prior to that the Canucks
21:12
played on Saturday. So both teams last played on
21:15
Friday or sorry on on Tuesday. But basically the Kings are now
21:19
playing their third game in four days.
21:21
Vancouver's playing their second game in four days.
21:24
So I think when you're looking at rest, first tired, it's not
21:26
just when was the last game, but look at the bunching of games.
21:30
Like was there? Is this a big kind of cluster of
21:32
games for one team last three or four days?
21:35
I don't really go more more than like 3 or 4 days get to a week
21:37
ago. You know that kind of the time
21:39
has passed at that point in terms of finding an edge.
21:43
But anyway, rested over the last four sharp line move, great low
21:47
bets, higher dollars bet split. Vancouver is five and one at
21:49
home or sorry, five and one on the road.
21:51
They played pretty well at home and then hopefully a goal
21:54
tending advantage because if you look at the projected starters
21:58
here in net, we have Kevin Lankinen predicted to go for and
22:03
again, I use daily face off. It's really good Twitter account
22:06
and follow with which gives you line combos and starting
22:09
goalies. But Kevin Lankenen may not sound
22:12
very impressive. You may never heard of this guy.
22:14
He was a backup, I think with predators for a while.
22:17
But anyway, he's been good this year. 2 point O nine goals
22:20
against, 9/23 save percentage. He'll be opposed likely by Darcy
22:25
Kemper, who has a 2.67 goals against 899 save percentage.
22:30
So Lincoln has been really good. He's really their number one guy
22:33
now because they're waiting for Thatcher Demco to come back.
22:38
And Darcy Kemper, who did win a cup with the ABS a few years
22:40
ago. Not bad numbers, but Lincoln has
22:43
been better. So if you're giving me dog to
22:45
fave line move, great bet split rest first.
22:47
Tired. Oh, let me layer in a few system
22:50
matches for you. A road favorite who made the
22:52
postseason last year. 34 and 2162% this season. 2% ROI rested
22:58
Rd. favorite at least two days between your last game, 44 and
23:02
2663 percent, 5% ROI Rd. favorite off a win, 64 percent.
23:08
3% ROI since 2021 and rested Rd. division favorite, 66 percent.
23:13
8% ROI since 2021. So a lot of matches are lighting
23:17
up here on Vancouver. So I'm going to stay up late.
23:20
I'm going to sweat the Canucks tonight.
23:21
Guys, give me Vancouver. I got it -120 Some shops as high
23:25
as -125 so Canucks and Bucknell on the money LINE app stayed on
23:31
the money line. Bengals in the points try to get
23:33
the hook and Zay Flowers over 61 1/2 receiving yards.
23:38
That about does it for episode 158 of the All systems Go Sports
23:42
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:44
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
23:46
start by asking a favor of you. Can you do me a solid?
23:50
Please make my day and give this podcast a five star review.
23:53
It only take a couple seconds out of your day if you're
23:56
already listening to the pod. Hey, it won't won't take much
23:59
longer to do this pretty painless, but give it five stars
24:02
under the rate or review button. If you want to leave a nice
24:04
comment under the review, that'll be great as well.
24:07
But those those five star reviews go a long way to gaining
24:11
credibility, gaining more traction, more listens, rising
24:15
up the charts. That's all part of it.
24:17
But really my whole point is I want to grow this podcast and
24:20
that's an easy way for you guys to help me do it by giving it a
24:23
five star review. If there's an option to follow,
24:25
click that. That way you get alerted as soon
24:27
as it drops each day. And if you want to recommend it
24:30
to a friend, hey, word of mouth is always the best
24:32
recommendation. Next, if you enjoy the style of
24:36
betting breakdown, looking at the data, looking at what the
24:39
market is doing, how the line has moved, where it open and how
24:43
it's gone since looking at bet percentages, bets and dollars,
24:46
taking a contrarian approach, flat betting and not parlaying.
24:49
If any of this style of betting has appealed to you or you're
24:53
interested by it and you want to learn more about data-driven
24:55
betting, guess what I wrote a book on data-driven betting.
24:59
This is my foundation, my philosophy.
25:01
I didn't create it, but I learned it over time and it's
25:04
treated me pretty, pretty decent.
25:05
So I I wanted to share with other people how to bet in terms
25:09
of data-driven philosophy. So if you want to make my day a
25:12
second time in a row, not just the five star review, but go buy
25:16
my book. It's going to be less than 20
25:17
bucks, maybe around 20 with shipping and handling.
25:20
But anyway, Bezos will drop it on your front porch with a
25:23
drone. All you gotta do is go to
25:25
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
25:28
Betting. Pick up a copy for you, or a
25:30
friend or a colleague or a buddy of yours.
25:33
Or someone who's newly into sports betting and doesn't know
25:35
where to begin. Maybe someone who lives in
25:36
Missouri who just legalized betting.
25:39
But anyway, it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
25:40
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
25:43
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
25:46
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
25:49
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
25:51
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
25:53
If you also want to bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you
25:56
and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some
25:58
games together. Next.
26:01
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
26:04
Rhythm? My two favorite sports betting
26:05
apps help us to power this podcast.
26:08
The rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
26:11
for game bets and player props. Again, who's going to give you
26:15
like last night, a rhythm edge on Cal State Northridge?
26:18
Again, this is this is how rhythm can really be a benefit.
26:21
Also with Juice Reel, if you want to tell the Robo Jackson
26:24
best bet picks that come out at noon each day, you want to take
26:27
a look at the sharp mush indicators for all different
26:30
sports where the best betters in the app are playing versus the
26:33
worst arbitrage opportunities, real bets and dollars breakdowns
26:37
from people have synced up their sports books.
26:39
It's very important you sync up your books.
26:40
That way you can get a report card of your action.
26:43
But all these great features are included with Juice Reel and
26:46
Rhythm and Juice Reel. They give you a 7 day free
26:48
trial. You don't have to take my word
26:49
for it. Test it out, see if you like it.
26:50
I'm pretty sure you will. It's just another layer of data
26:53
that you can apply when you're capping a game.
26:56
But please sign up for them in a specific way.
26:58
Click those custom links that are located in the bio
27:01
Description of each podcast today should say something like
27:04
an episode 158. Josh dishes out a 5 pack of
27:06
sweats. Yadda, yadda yadda.
27:08
Scroll down. There should be a link to Juice
27:10
Reel and Rhythm. Sign up for the seven day free
27:12
trial. Boom, you're off and running.
27:14
So without further ado, finishing up the pod here.
27:17
Of course, I'm going to leave you with two things.
27:19
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
27:22
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods
27:25
or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
27:27
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
27:30
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
27:32
They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
27:34
where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
27:37
juice possible is found at the South point or sweat and sharp
27:40
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
27:43
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
27:46
you're going to walk going to walk up to me and show me some
27:48
nice tickets from last night. NIU dog to fave Ohio under Cal
27:52
State Northridge again winning night.
27:56
I would argue we should have won more San Diego and that Philly
27:59
over let us down. But either way, guys, flash me
28:01
one of those tickets. First one's on me, next one's on
28:03
you. We're going to post about the
28:04
book Sweatsharp Contrarian Place all night long.
28:08
So wish you the best luck everyone.
28:09
Enjoy your Thirsty Thursday. As always, some parting words.
28:13
Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
28:16
yourself on the side of the house.
28:18
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
28:20
Will smart money win every time? No, nothing's, nothing's
28:23
guaranteed. No such thing as a locker
28:25
guarantee. But here's the thing, smart
28:27
money is going to win a majority of the time long term, between
28:30
55 and 60% of the time. So that's why we want to be with
28:34
the sharp action against the public, with the house, with the
28:37
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get some closing line value.
28:40
If we can do that, if we can follow that model and bet based
28:43
on her head and not our heart, we're going to be successful
28:46
long term. So have a great Thursday
28:48
everyone, good luck and as always, hope you have a great
28:51
day. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
28:53
a big Friday edition episode 159 of the All Systems Go Sports
28:57
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:00
Good luck everybody, have a great night.