Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Desperate For A Deal… And Iran Knows It + The FBI’s Kash Patel Problem

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Desperate For A Deal… And Iran Knows It + The FBI’s Kash Patel Problem · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: rates may vary. Hello Aaron, Welcome to the Monday episode
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: of the Chuck Podcast. For some of you, today is
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: a very important holiday because it's four twenty. Like I said,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: for some of you, it's a very important holiday for
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: those who say celebrate, so enjoy yourself in moderation, but
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: in all seriousness. Welcome to the third week of April,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: and it is we're in a precarious time here. We've
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: got I think, very nervous about the current state of
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: the economy because of the current state of the war.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I feel like our friends at Wall Street are basically
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: just in denial that somehow what's happening in the straight
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: of horror moves is having going to have no impact
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: on the world economy. It is this fascinating dynamic of
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: which we know when reality sets in it is going
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: to be a brutal and ugly moment on that front.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: But hey, that's for those of you closer to retirement
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: age constantly nervous about that. I just hope you're prepared
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: for what is likely to be more knee jerk reactions.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: But look, let me give you a quick rundown of
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: the episode. Today obviously got three topics. I'm gonna hit
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: on Iran Cash, Betel, and Virginia. Tuesday is the last
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: day to vote in the Virginia redistricting arena, so we
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: will get to that. And of course it's Monday, which
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: means we jump into the time machine and I'm gonna
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: give you a hint. It's about America's first real war
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: of choice. That's where we're going back. We've been talking
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: about Iran as a war of choice, clear war of
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: choice here, and we see what happens. Most war of
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: choices don't go well for those that choose to make
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: war first. And this story I'm going to talk about
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: is because we are in an anniversary week of essentially
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: America's first war of choice that wasn't about its own
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: territorial expansion. And that's the hint I.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Will give you.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: We'll talk a little NBA playoffs at the end. I
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: don't think I have some medium takes, call them hot takes.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: I have some medium NBA takes, just enough to make
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: it interesting. But with that, let's start with which should
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: be more of an obsession by the American press corps, frankly,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the world's press score. Because we are sitting here in
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: this incredibly precarious position of the straight upfor moves being closed,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: we know that we're going to have fuel rationing starting
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: to hit in the next few weeks in some places
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: in Asia and possibly Australia the next few months when
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: it comes to jet fuel and Europe and so forth,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: and so this is an incredibly crucial week. The ceasefire
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: that we've been operating under expires in the middle of
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: this week, so it is crucial that some something happens here. Look,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: if I'm not a big fan of TLDR, but if
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: you want the quick TLDR, expect some sort of extension
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: of the ceasefire. Maybe it's a week, maybe it's two weeks,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: in order to keep negotiating going. Because here's what I
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: am pretty confident about. I will be shocked if they've
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: got a deal locked in loaded. If you tell me
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: they're still talking and they're still trying to put pen
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: to paper and they need more time, that's where you
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: could see an extension. I mean, realistically, even though we've
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: been operating in a two weeks ceasefire that's about to expire,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: it it feels like the ceasefire has been like a day, right,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: considering what we've had with Israel Lebanon as well. So
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I think the most, like you know, the most likely
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: result of this set of talks is more punting, more stalling,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: and more because neither side is going to feel the
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: need to cave I thing. So let's get to where
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: things stand. So the United States sending JD Vance back
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: again to Pakistan for another round of talks to try
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: to see where if things can move along into some
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: sort of negotiated settlement out of this war. Now you
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: may wonder sending Vant's good or bad. Well, if if
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: we somehow didn't send him, then that would to me
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: look like a signal we weren't interested in saw it, right,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: You send the Vice president and the first time you
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: have talks, if you somehow didn't do that this time, right,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and you just left it to Kushner and whit cough,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: it would certainly send the signal that we might not
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: be as serious about ending. It is pretty clear Donald
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Trump is desperate to figure out a way out of
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: this war because he miscalculated, all right, everybody miscalculated. The
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: people around him didn't have the guts to tell him
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: that bb net Yahoo was leading him down a path
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: that was going to put him in this box. He
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: chose to believe bb net, Yahoo and foreign intelligence agencies
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: rather than his own. So let's make sure when history
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: tells this story correctly, we can't even blame this on
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: an American intelligence failure.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: It is not.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: It is an Israeli intelligence failure that pushed us into that.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: So what it really is, it's a new American president
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: failure because he didn't.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: Listen to his own intelligence agencies.
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  Speaker 1: So what is the box that we're in? And it's
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: obvious we are desperate, me being the United States here
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to get out of this. From
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the beginning, it seemed like the strategy seemed clear, apply pressure,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: escalate if necessary, and try to convert that pressure into
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: a deal. But it also depended on Iran deciding it
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: had no choice but to fold. And this is the
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: miscalculation that hasn't happened. Instead, Iran has shown it still
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: has leverage, real leverage, because as long as the US
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: maintains it's blockade, Tehran can choke off the one thing
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the global economy depends on energy moving through the straight
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: ofform moves, you know. And we're sitting here obsessed with
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the nuclear do at the end of the day, if
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: you're the Iranian regime here and you want to stay
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: in power and you want to keep your power, do
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: you really care about the nuclear aspect or do you
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: care about control of the Strait? Because it turned out
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: the Strait is the best to turrent to have. It's
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: better than nukes at this point. So here we are
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: and the Iranians have said it plainly. If Iran can't
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: pass through the strait, others shouldn't assume they can't either.
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  Speaker 1: So it's not a temporary dispute. It is a structural stalemate.
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  Speaker 1: And this is where the US is boxed it and
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: where Trump did this to us and did this to himself.
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  Speaker 1: But what he does to himself impacts all of us.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: If he wants the straight open because the economic pressure
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: is real, but he also wants to keep maximum pressure
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: on Iran, which means maintaining the blockade, Well you can't
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: do both.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: That's the problem he's got.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: And the result is what we're seeing right now, a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: system that looks like it's functioning but isn't. Ships are waiting,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: routes are uncertain, risk building underneath the service right And
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: if you're watching oil prices you might miss it right
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: because the headline number suggests things are stabilizing. I mean,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: it is a whole bunch of traders who are just
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: literally not living in reality. But what you see traded
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: as the price of oil isn't the reality of what
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the actual price of oil is. If you're trying to
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: get oil to Southeast Asia or get oil to South
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Korea or get oil to Australia. The price is much
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: higher than what the trading price is at the moment. Right,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: the real market is telling a different story than what
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: you're seeing in the traded commodities markets. Actual delivered oil
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: is trading its steep premiums at the moment. Supply is
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: incredibly constrained. The system is under huge stress. So this
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: is why we're in this huge disconnect. The screen is
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: saying one thing. If you're a trader in Wall Street,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: reality says another. Now let's layer in the domestic picture.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: We've got yet another new pull, this one from NBC.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: One of the NBC polls done by the professional campaign
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: pollsters Heart McInturff. This is the survey Monkey poll, which
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: is a panel survey. It's very similar to you gov
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and IPSOS. Obviously, it's getting a lot of tension. He's
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: sitting at thirty seven percent, But do realize all of
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: these panel surveys are usually include a lot more folks
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: who are not considered the electorate for the midterms, which
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: means his numbers are lower. It's usually adults, or at
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: least a lot less weighted of who actually shows up
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: to the polls, So it all depends on It's why
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: if you've noticed you gov ipsos, anything in a panel
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: survey has Trump in the thirties. Anybody that uses voter
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: files and is looking for registered voters or even likely voters,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: the approval rating is still sitting at forty one forty two,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So you know, I wouldn't you know until the other
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: NBC pollsters find his numbers at thirty seven. I don't
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: think it's a big headline, but it still matters that
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: he's still obviously underwater for what it's worth, and it's
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: and that still matters. It's clear the public does not
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: like this war. They know it's hurt the economy in
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: a bad way. And guess what, Trump knows it. He's
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: well aware of it. So what does Trump fear? And
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: this is the part that matters because it probably explains
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: his behavior. Trump, No, he doesn't want a wider war, right,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: he does not have the stomach for it. He doesn't
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: want American casualties. He doesn't want to pay the political
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: price for either one. So what you're seeing as an
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: attempt to apply pressure without triggering the consequences of that pressure.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So he uses crazy escalatory language getting rid of all
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: sorts of this nonsense talk. But the action is extraordinarily cautious,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: and he's just signaling, please, please, please make a deal
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: with me, Please make a deal with me. His issue
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: here is he thinks everybody is motivated by the same
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: things that motivate him. Right, He's always motivated by being
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: bought off, right, ultimately, so he just assumes everybody else
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: is motivated by being bought off. And by the way,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: it turns out, it's kind of true with about seventy
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: to eighty percent of entities, But not everybody can just
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: be bought off in the way that he thinks everybody
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: can be bought off. And that's the problem he's stuck
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: with with the Iranians. The Iranians know he wants a
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: deal really badly, and they're, you know what, they love
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to do, negotiate and negotiate and negotiate.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: Remember the original Iran nuclear.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Deal with another president who clearly wanted a deal, and
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the Iranians knew he wanted a deal already looks like
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: a better deal than whatever deal Donald Trump is going
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: to get here. So what do the Iranians say? They
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: see constraint? Right, Trump hasn't escalated. Iran's escalated, and the
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Americans haven't really escalated. Yes, the blockade is it's just
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Trump desperate to grab some leverage. His problem is he
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't really have leverage. It's working with this regime because
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: he's overestimated how much of this regime cares about its people.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: They don't care about their own people. You know, that's
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: the asymmetric part of this conflict at the moment. So
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: the Iranians in the regime, they see hesitation, and they
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: see the clock. They're well aware of the campaign pressures
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and the political pressures. You know, that's the thing. And
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: of course Trump doesn't hide. He's the worst poker player
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in the world. He's shouted from the rooftops that he
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: wants to deal. He's made it so clear that he
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: is not going to send ground troops in, even as
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: he does send enough ground troops that if he chose
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: to order, say an attempt to open the Straight of
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Horn moves and try to take control of the Straight,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: he has the resources to do it if he orders it,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: But he's afraid of the casualties. So the Iranians are
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: watching and they know they can hold firm on their
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: core issues, the nuclear material position in the horror moves,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: and their refusal to concede under pressure because they believe
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the US has more to lose from this dragging on.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Right, they have nothing but time. Right.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: It goes back to that old Tallybaan saying it's like
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: you have the watches, we have the time.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: And that's the Iranians are operating right now.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: They know Trump is on the clock and there they
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: don't feel this pressure that Trump feels at the moment.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: There's been another untended consequence here, and that has been
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the strengthening of China. This is my friend Ian Bremer,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: who is a frequent guest on this show.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: Back.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: It's probably about time for me to get them back on,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: but I want to wait until we're actually pears to
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: at least be in a true pause in this war
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: with around. I say pause because I have a feeling
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: we're going to be in these It's going to be
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: kind of like this DHS shutdown. It's never really going
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: to end, but it's never really going to continue either,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: if that's possible. So as he and were put it
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: this week, and I think it's the cleanest way to
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: understand it, and you should take his look at I
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: hope if some of you really interested in foreign foreign affairs,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I think Ian's newsletters are the best out there at
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: G zero. As he writes, China is weathering the war
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: better than expected and looks to look set to emerge
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: relatively stronger. In some ways, They've been prepared for this
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: moment and preparing for this moment, While the United States,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: who at one point was trying to prepare for this
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: moment Donald Trump came in, it's a new We are
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: not going to be prepared to diversify our energy resources.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: We are going to.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: Triple down on oil and gas and put us and
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: put us in a position that we're in now where
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: almost we're overly dependent on oil and gas at the moment.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: So the reasons though for his take of why is
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: China Essentially they're going to emerge the biggest winner of
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: this war with Iran. The war has depleted US military stockpiles,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: so if they choose to walk into Taiwan tomorrow, they
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: probably The US is not is probably too stretched to help.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: It's pulled attention and assets away from Asia. Remember the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: old pivot to Asia. We've been trying to pivot to ASA.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: It's like Infrastructure Week, and it's forcing allies to quietly
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: reassept how reliable the US is. We have This war
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: is sort of is it finishing off the job that
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I guess Donald Trump wanted to do, which is to
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: detach America from various military and treaty alliances. Well he's
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: doing a great job of that, and those folks are
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: running in other places. I mean, you have the new
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Premier Serre of Canada in September plans to host countries
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: and investors from around the world about investing in Canada,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: basically ignoring the United States, realizing he's got to diversify
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: his economic ties around the world because the United States
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: is no longer reliable trading card. He's not alone. This
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: again big win for China. And that's the other thing
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: that's happening here. The current disruptions and oil flows are
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: accelerating demand for the very things China dominates, clean energy,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: electrification and the critical supply chains that provide it, right,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: solar panels, things like that, all of these things that
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the United States decided to get out of the business.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: Upper At least Donald Trump, did.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: You know it's going to make for an interesting Earth
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Day later this week, isn't it anyway? Bremmer's bottom line
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: is simple. China doesn't need to get involved to benefit,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: and they're benefiting. They're going to win the piece without
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: getting anywhere near this war. Talk about a strategic form
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: policy disaster that's probably generational, right. This is the type
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: of after math effects. You know, the mess for the
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: next president only gets bigger by the day thanks to
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: this just inft leadership and massive mistakes by Donald Trump
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: listening to his quote unquote gut to really put us
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: in a good spot. So the moment matters here right
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: now because this conflict hasn't produced a clear demonstration of
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: American leverage. This is why we can't end this war
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: yet on our terms. We could, but it would mean
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: risking blood and treasure. It would mean sending in ground troops.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: It would mean going all the way. And that's what
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have the stomach for. He got talked into
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: something by BB that he thought was quick and easy,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: and as always BB sort of you know, talks a
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: bigger game than his reality. He's suckering the United States
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: into something he wanted to do, and there you go.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Heck of a job, BB, because you've now alienated even
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: a greater number of Americans when it comes to support
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: for Israel. There is nobody when you look at if
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: you are upset about the loss of support for Israel
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: the United States, there is only one person to blame.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: He is singularly the person to blame, Bibe Data, who
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: has destroyed this relationship. He did it inside the Democratic Party,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: He's now doing it inside the Republican He alone is
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: at fault for this. I am somebody who considers myself
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: a big supporter of Israel, and I am really upset
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: at him. If you do care about it, take your
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: blinders off and realize who did this.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: He did this.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: So here's where we are. The US wants a deal,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Iran knows it. Both sides are holding positions they don't
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: want to move off of, which probably means this isn't
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: really moving towards an immediate resolution. We're stuck. So what
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: a stuck look like? Probably more extensions, we'll see. Trump
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: thought he could use pressure to force Iran into a box.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: This is not how this version of this Iranian regime thinks.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: And if anything, whatever divide he was hoping to create, right,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: it is clear. The IRGC is more radical than ever
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: and they're in charge. And you know, the current president
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: probably is somebody you can deal with, but he doesn't look.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: Like he's got much juice inside. Right.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: The Iranian the IRGC is in charge of this whole thing,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: and that's a problem, and it's you know, they got
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: more power thanks to these decisions by President Trump. So
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know he gets out of it. I think
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the best he can hope for is redoing the around
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: nuclear deal. That's the best he can hope for. And
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: maybe what he can do is claim that he's got
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: Iran agreeing to a longer moratorium than Obama agreed to,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and maybe he can agree to more you know, trust
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: but verify payments and relief und sanctions. Okay, here's you know,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: you get this relief fund sanctions, if you get this
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: amount of traffic moving through the Strait, you get this
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: relief in sanctions, if you get this amount, you know,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: that might be the best they can hope for. But
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: do remember it took years for the first Iran deal
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to get done, and perhaps he can just take it
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: off the shelf and start from there, and that may
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: be what they do without ever admitting it. But that's
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: the best we can hope for now, and that he
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: really only has two choices, get the Iran nuclear deal
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: back on the table or escalate. That's the position he's
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: put himself in, he's put the country in, and I
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: don't think I don't think he's I don't think there's
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: political will in Congress. And let's keep this other thing
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: in mind. I think when the sixty day clock expires
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: in the War Powers Resolution, yes, there's a pretty easy
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: way to extend it another thirty days. So in essence,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: we're looking at right, so February twenty eighth essentially to
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: April twenty eighth, so it's coming in at the you know,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: at the end of this, you know we're getting close
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: to sixty days. You throw in another thirty after that,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: so we're looking at Memorial Day basically. That's that's what
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: he's got. And I think once Congress starts waying, it
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: ain't going to go well for him. We're already seeing
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: what happens, right, he's kind of already this FISA struggle
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: for him to get FISA is sort of the latest
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: evidence that the Lame Duck is starting to show itself here,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: I think a lot more elected Republicans realize, Hey, Donald
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Trump isn't going to be on the battle again. This
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: may not be. He may not have the persuasion powers
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: that he once had, and we're finding out right Speaker
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Johnson is not really an effective speaker if Donald Trump
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: is not popular with the Republican base, and he's finding
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: out the hard way. So at best, he's probably got
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: about five weeks to get this done, and then there
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: could be just a humiliating moment where Congress and the
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: White House fight over the direction of this war going forward.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: But he's got a heat.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I think the last thing this White House out of
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: risk is where Congress will be. I think where Congress
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: is by Memorial Day politically may not be in a
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: place where he can find a majority to support keeping
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: whatever this looks like going forward forward. This episode of
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• 25:11
  Speaker 1: before we go today.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: A couple other stories I want to touch on.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: We'll spent a few minutes on this on a story
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: that I think deserves a lot.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: More attention than it has gotten.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Sometimes the peace lands in Washington and everybody reads it
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: for the scandal, but the real significance isn't the scandal,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: it's the institutional warning that's embedded inside. That's how I
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: read the Atlantic piece on FBI director Cash Btel. The
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: headline is blunt, the FBI director is mia all right,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: and the allegations are really serious. According to the reporting,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: more than two dozen current former officials describe Patel as
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: a radic, frequently absent and at times impaired by alcohol.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: By the way, some of the visuals that we have
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: as Americans with Cash Pattel is him chugging beer at
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: the Olympic game. Right, So the visuals that we have
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: of him and his constantly using you know, taxpayer funded
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: planes to like, you know, go follow his girlfriend around
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the country, that's the stuff we have on camera, right,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: And this is what we're hearing behind the scenes. So
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: the allegations are quite serious. Betel's response, of course, is
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: total denial. That's oh, that's that's the that's the Trump
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: administration's you know, default position on everything. And you know
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: he's hoping for for White House backup. And we know
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: the White House never wants to cave in to a
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: report at first. But just because the White House is
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: backing Pattel at the moment doesn't mean they feel really
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: good about how Cash Betel is performing as FBI director.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: And the Justice Department, of course right now wants to
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: dismiss it as a hit piece. Yeah, it is a
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: hit piece, but sometimes hit pieces, you know, sometimes a
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: hit piece is true, right it is. You could say
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: it's about Cash Battel. Yes, his leadership has been a
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: problem this entire time. There are quietly people who have
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: been complaining about Cash Battel, and yes, this has been
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: begging for deep dive reporting, and that's what the Atlantic did.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: So you can call it a hit piece.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: That is correct.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: It is a hit piece on Cash Battel. But just
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: because it's a hit piece doesn't mean it's not factually correct.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: So let's be clear about what this is and what
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: it isn't. These are allegations, they're detail allegations.
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: They're widely sourced.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Allegations, but they're still allegations. And Patel is not ducking that.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: He's essentially saying false and I'll see you in court. Okay,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Let's see if he follows through on that. Right, it's
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: always easy to say you're going to file a lawsuit,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: and Donald Trump files dummy lawsuits all the time. I
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: don't think The Atlantic is going to be settling with
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Cash Battel. But I digress. But here's why this piece
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: is so damaging. Even before you prove every specific claim,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: it paints a pike sure of the FBI where people
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: inside the building no longer trust the steadiness, availability, or
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: judgment of the person running it. That's the real shame here, right.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: We came from an incredibly stable FBI director, want to
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: point up by Donald Trump, by the way, in Christopher Ray.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: And now we have the most political sort of least
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: qualified person ever to run the FBI in the history
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: of the FBI. So you have an FBI director that
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: basically does not have the trust of the rank and file.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: That's what this piece seems to say. That alone is
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: a crisis. Doesn't matter whether you know it is. If
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: he does not have legitimacy within the rank and file,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: then he can't do the job. The White House, of
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: course knows this. They just have to decide when are
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: they going to admit defeat on this one. This is
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: an agency responsible for domestic law enforcement, counter terrorism, counterintelligence,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: and it certainly looks like they've dropped the ball on
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: certain issues. Whenever Patel has put himself right, he inserted
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: himself into the missing Nancy Guthrie thing and created heightened expectations,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: and you know, he sort of seems to be really
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: sort of putting the FBI's reputation in a bad spot.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: The more he the more he's in charge. So if
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: people inside that building are asking basic questions like is
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: he even reachable, is he focused? Is he making decisions
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: based on facts? Is he too inebriated? Right, the FBI
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: director is a twenty four hour job, then the right
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: then this is bigger than one person's operational incompetence. So
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: what makes the piece hit is how specific it is.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: The reported computer lockout incident where Patel briefly believed he
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: had been fired Clay, So he's paranoid already. The fact
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: that he thinks he might be fired proves that he
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: has no legitimacy right now. Even inside this administration, claims
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: that meetings had to be rescheduled after late nights, accounts
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: of him being unreachable at key moments, even a report
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: reported request for breaching equipment when he couldn't be accessed
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: behind lock doors. Again, he's denying all of this. This
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: is the Atlantic, this is not page six. But the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: portrait isn't of a controversial leader who's unpopular. It's a leader.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: It's of a leader parts of the institution, now see,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: is just completely unreliable. So we have a national security problem.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: And this is the line in the piece. You can't ignore.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Officials in the piece describe warring about what happens in
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: a crisis, a domestic terror event, a fast moving intelligence threat.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: What if the FBI director isn't available. Apparently that's already
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: been the case once or twice or isn't operating at
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: full capacity too many late nights. That concern is apparently
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: intensified with the US now at war with Iran.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Right, we know the way.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Iran operates asymmetric will they have no doubt have sales
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: in this country. They are going to try to infiltrate.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: They're going to try to do things in asymmetric warfare.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: RBI has got to be do encounter terrorism surveillance in ways.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: It's got to be at the peak of its powers
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: and at the top of its game. And cash Ptel
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: is not somebody who's going to put you at the.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Top of your game.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: So even if you set aside the personal conduct allegations,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the management critique alone is rough from this piece. Irregular presence,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: delayed decisions, investigations slowed down. There's even a public example
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: Patel prematurely announcing a person of interest in a major case,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: only for that person to be released. Right, that was
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: in the Charlie Kirk situation. So it's not just a
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: bad day, it's a pattern concern. Right, It is pretty
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: clear he has never gotten the trust of the rank
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: and file, and now his leadership style is landing with
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: a thud to be.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Generous, so you're really effective.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: FBI directors have to be disciplined, and let's just say
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: this guy lacks discipline.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: So what's the.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Institutional damage over time? This kind of leadership question spreads
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: morale drops, turnover rises, experience, walks out the door, field
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: office to stop trusting headquarters. You don't know what intelligence
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: is being put in. I really worry that our rank
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and file intel folks don't trust the people in charge.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: And I understand that right because Donald trust it. Donald
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Trump doesn't want to trust our own institutions.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: So here we are.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: The bureau now starts running on a habit instead of direction,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: and that's when mistakes happen. That's when things get missed.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: And the last thing we need is the FBI's reputation
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: to take another hit. And right now, Cash Ptel leading
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: the FBI is giving it a pretty big black eye
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: at the moment. Now, let's layer in the politics. Part
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: of Ptel's durability appears tied to his willingness to carry
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: out the President's agenda right particularly around purges and the
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: targeting of perceived enemies. And I think he thinks anytime
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: he's in trouble. He can just sort of lean in
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: on that, and because you know, there's no way they'll
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: get anybody.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: As as sort of.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: There's no way he can get another FBI director who
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: will be as willing to do what Patel does, and
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: he's counting on that as his get out of get
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: out of jail free card with the West winge. So
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: you're going to get this tensions concerns inside the institution
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: paired with protection from above, at least that's what it
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: looks like publicly. But you know what, here's one thing
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: you need to understand about Donald Trump. He hates anecdotes
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: about drinking. And I promise you he didn't like and
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: remember word came out that he didn't like Patel being
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: on camera chugging a beer at that at the Olympic,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: at the post Olympic celebration with the US men's hockey team.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: I do think the reports of his drinking and the
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: consistent reports of his drinking that stuff Trump hates. So
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: while Trump may not like to throw somebody under the
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: bus after public political pressure, I do think Petel's days
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: are numbered. This is why this feels like not a
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: question of if, but more like a question of when,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: because after the story ran, the reporter of The.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Atlantic, p.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Sarah fit Patrick went on ce Inn and added something
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: for reportant. She said, Pttel himself has been telling people
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: close to him that he believes he's about to be fired,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: so he knows he's got some issues inside the West Wing.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: And more than that, senior administration officials have already been
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: discussing who his successor would be, not whether, but who.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: So it's clear this is about and if anything, knowing
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Trump World, some of Sarah Fitzpatrick's sources in the Atlantic
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: probably came straight from the West Wing, from inside the
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: White House. Like these folks, this is how they play.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: They will publicly say they don't.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Trust major news organizations like The Atlantic, who do independent reporting,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: but they certainly leak like a sieve when they've got
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: when they've got a point that they want to make
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: sure it gets into public, and that when they've got
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: information that they actually want the public to believe in
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: our quest to try to get us back on the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: in a better direction when it comes to small D democracy.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about Virginia and where.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: That is headed, because that's the battling closes on Tuesday,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: We've had a.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Couple of polls both showing the same thing. It appears
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: that a narrow majority will end up doing this. The
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: massive get out the vote effort here in northern Virginia
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: has been.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: Increasing.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: The financial disparity between those that are trying to get
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: these maps changed and those that are trying to stop
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it is probably why this will pass fifty two forty eight,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: But it looks like it's going to be closer than
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the experts ninety. And you know what's ironic is they're
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: doing this for two seats. This is not for four seats.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: This is for two.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: Right. Have they made no changes?
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: If this map is rejected, right, and we stick with
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: this six' five, Map democrats are likely to still pick
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: up two districts under the old. Lines the first and
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the second both have already become. Bluer they're both suburban
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: districts Ones Virginia beach ones in a little bit different,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: area but they're both getting. Bluer they didn't need to
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: redrop a map to get an eight three. Advantage so
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: just think about. It and you Know i've been harping on.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: This they're pissing away all this political. CAPITAL i Mean
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Abigail spamberger is you, know already lost her brand with
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of folks in the in
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: the sort OF dc intelligence. Here whether that's fair or,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: not you, know she's got certainly has time to fix,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: it but she really does not look like she's in
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: charge Of. Virginia that, instead it's The democratic controlled, legislature
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: whether It's Louise lucas Or Speaker, scott but they seem
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: to be calling the shots and she just does whatever
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: is asked of. Her it's you, know it's been a
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: terrible start start for, her and the polling has shown it.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Right she is the got the lowest job rating of
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: any governor, this you, know in the first one hundred
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: days of her, governorship any governor we've had since nineteen ninety.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Three that's saying. Something and it's been a mix of
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: d's and rs and all of, that and she's at the.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: LOWEST i never would have guessed. THAT i never would
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: have guessed, that BUT i thought she would have shown some.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Independence but this is what, happens right when you know
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: the pressure that an executive gets whether you're. President we
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: saw it With Joe biden Where democrats got control of
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: both The house and The, senate and suddenly the. Left
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: he got dragged to the. Left, well she wins Both,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: democrats you, Know democrats are in charge of both The
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: assembly and the State. Senate she gets dragged to the.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: Left we saw, This pat McCrory In North carolina got
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: dragged to the.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Right you, know the all.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Party control isn't always what it's cracked up to be
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: because of suddenly you you as an, executive particularly if
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: you're a governor or, president where you want to try
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: to stay above this partisan. POLITICS i, say generally not
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: all governors or presidents end up wanting to do, that
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: but generally they. Do and she's in this and she's you, know,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: look she's made a political, decision BUT i don't understand
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: she's nothing to worry. About there's no reelection with the,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: governor so she should have felt freer to push back
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: on the. Left so the fact that she hasn't has BEEN.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: I have to tell, You i'm.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: SURPRISED i thought she was going to have a stiffer
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: spine on some of these.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: Things and maybe she. Will maybe this.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Will be a lesson learned because this has been you,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: know even If democrats win what if they. Won so,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: anyway let's assume they do. Win all, right let me
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: walk you through what this map is going to look.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Like you, know so the way they do it is
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: actually pretty.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Textbook.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: Right you start with your safer districts and you squeeze.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Them so you take these deep Northern virginia, seats the
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: eighth and the. Eleventh i'm in the eighth congressional. District
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: That's Don. Bayer it's all Of. Arlington now they're going
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: to Cut arlington in half and do all. This the
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: eleventh is the one that included a lot Of Fairfax.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: County they're going to mess around with that as. Well
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: both are Overwhelmingly, democrats so under this, map they Stay,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: democrat but they get trimmed and they'll Pull democratic voters
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: out of those two districts and they'll move them into
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: some neighboring competitive. Districts they're doing the same thing in
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: The richmond, suburbs the same thing In Hampton. Roads their
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Core democratic districts stay, blue but they've tightened up just enough.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: To export voters.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Elsewhere so when you look at the districts that are
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: already Leaning democratic but that are not quite, safe you
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: look at the seventh and the. Tenth the tenth is
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: the one that has a. Piece it's, like it's Got Louden,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: county it's Got, MacLane got a little bit of The Shenandoah.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Valley the seventh is that one that kind of basically
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: Connects Northern virginia suburbs with The richmond suburbs sort of.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Right so they're getting. Reinforced so the tenth gets more
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Of Louden, county which has been trending bluer and. Bluer
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: they'll lose some of those rural edges which kept it
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: swinging at. Times the seventh will become more consolidated as
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: a suburban. Seat it pulls in more Of Prince william
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: and it's shedding more of its conservative. Areas and then
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: suddenly they took two semi competitive. Districts they became much
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: harder For republicans to, win at least in a midterm
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: that looks like. This not all of these districts are
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: going to be slammed dunks if the political winds will
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: start blowing in the other, direction by the, way but
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: here's where they get. Aggressive the real action is in
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: the districts that are Currently republican health in the first
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: which was already trending.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: Blue this Is Rob.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: WHITMAN i think they could have pulled this off without
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: having to do a. Remap but they push it. Further
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: they take out some conservative rural, areas add Some richmond,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: suburbs and then, suddenly instead of being A republican leaning,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: seat it's A democratic leaning. Seat and they did the
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: same thing With Virginia. Beach they stripped out a few conservative,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: pockets added more urban, areas urban cores Of Norfolk Virginia,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: beach just to make it slightly. Bluer and now both
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: are them leaning again in.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: A Good republican. Leyear they both could actually, flip but
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: it would be harder to. Flip but the.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Biggest change might be the fifth. District right now that
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: it's a Solid republican, district a little bit Of charlottesville in,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: there but under this, map they crack it and they
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: pull it Towards charlottesville And. Lynchburg they cut away from
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: the rural base and they. Flipped it wasn't a tweak total.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Redesign and then the six a traditionally Safe republican, territory
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: it got. Reshaped there it starts by connecting college towns.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: Stretch then they stretched the lines. More they created a
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: hybrid district that becomes. Copetitive it's not guaranteed, democratic but
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: it's no longer Safety republican. Either this is the one
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: where if they end up nine to two instead of
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: ten to, one it'll be this district that doesn't go.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Democratic and then you ask, yourself while they did all
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: of this for one additional, SEAT i, mean this is
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: WHY i think this is just such an asinine. DECISION
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: i understand the energy behind, IT i understand the frustration
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: of What texas was, doing but all of this rigormarole
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: for maybe one or two extra seats seems like a
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: waste of political.
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: Capital but we shall. See.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Now the final move in this re, redistricting and it's
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the most, revealing is they take all the Remaining republican
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: strength and they essentially pack it into one, district the.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Ninth it's sort of like a, sink if you, will,
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: right they've just drained all of The republicans into this ninth.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Sink every conservative precinct you don't want influencing other, races
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: it gets put into this, ninth if you, will one
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Overwhelmingly republican seat in order to try to Keep republican
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: voters having any influence anywhere. Else so what is this
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Really if the amendment, Fails democrats probably gain seats anyway
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: just through demographic. Change if it, passes they don't just gain,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: them they basically will guarantee them before election, day which
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: kind of makes the victory Spurric in my, OPINION i
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: think they'd actually mean, something and they would be reflective
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: of where the voter will is more if they want
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: a fair. MAP i think your mandate is more concrete
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: if you win and gain, seats be a fair map
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: than if you rig.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: It but, hey that's just, Me so we'll see what.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Happens i'm we're going to have live ELECTION i Coverage
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: My friends And Decision death And, crystalizo so we will
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: be live at seven.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Pm virginia's at fast counting.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: State we expect to do a one hour, special probably
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: be done by eight, pm so we should know pretty.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: Quickly if we, don't it means we're waiting for the Northern,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: virginia which is always it is south to north the
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: Way virginia.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: Counts so if it's.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Not clear what this vote's going to, be then maybe
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: we are on for. Later BUT I i don't know
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: what The democrats think they've won, here AND i don't
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: think winning is going to feel as good as they
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: think it does when all of a sudden. Bie this
• 44:28
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  Speaker 1: Two i'm a. Customer, no we're not going to go
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  Speaker 1: to some four to.
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  Speaker 2: Twenty although that could have been fun and.
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Tempting for those of you that know, me you're probably, thinking,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: oh he would have done even more of. That. Now, no,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: no but actually we've got a pretty good one this
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: week that has a little rhyme to, it if you
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: if you, will when it comes to the current current global.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Landscape so some weeks in. History give you a, moment,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Right this one gives you a. Countdown it was five
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: days In april of eighteen ninety. Eight that's where we're going.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Back On april, twentieth eighteen ninety, Eight congress issued an
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: ultimatum to the country Of. Spain On april twenty, first
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: The United States navy started a blockade Of. Cuba On
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: april twenty, Third spain declared war on The United, states
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: and By april twenty, fifth The United states made it
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: official and quietly rewrote when it all began and made
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: the declaration of. War they backdated the declaration of war five.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Days that's all it took for The United states to
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: go from debate to inevitability to. War we're going to
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: The Spanish American. War but the real story isn't what
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: happened that. Week it's how a country with options ended
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: up acting like it didn't have. Any does it sound,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: Familiar so let's talk about the. Spark the spark actually
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: took place On february, fifteenth eighteen ninety. Eight that's when
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: THE uss main exploded in The Havannah. Harbor more than
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: two and Sixty americans are. Killed almost immediately the conclusion
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: arised before the Investigation spain did, it except no one
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: actually knows that at the. Time the evidence is, unclear
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: and even today most modern investigations point somewhere far less,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: dramatic a likely, accident a coal bunker fire igniting the ship's.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Magazine that it wasn't, sabotage it wasn't an, attack just a,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: tragedy which makes what comes next feel a bit different
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: because the facts didn't lead to the. Conclusion the conclusion came.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: First think about. That this is when we first wondered
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: if we were losing the information, Ecosystem and it goes
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: all the way back to eighteen ninety. Eight so let's
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: talk about the role of the press in this. One
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: publishers Like William Randolph hurst And Joseph pulitzer were locked
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: in a circulation war and they discover something Powerful.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: And we still know this.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Today outrage travels faster than. Truth, yeah we learned it
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: in eighteen ninety, eight and we're relearning the lesson all
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: the time, now aren't. We So cuba becomes not just
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: a story but a, feeling graphic, reporting emotional, framing constant.
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Repetition remember the main to hell With spain rang a
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: headline and maybe the most telling line of the. Era
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: you furnished the pictures And i'll furnish the. War Whether
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: William randolphirst actually said, it this point doesn't, matter does?
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: It that it was believable and repeat it tells you
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: everything you need to. Know and for the first time
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: In american, history millions of people are absorbing the same
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: emotional narrative at the same. Time congress isn't reacting in a.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Vacuum it's reacting to a country that's already. Reacting the
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: press didn't cause the, war but it helped create a
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: country that was ready for. One they certainly amplified the
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: idea behind. It at the center of all of this
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: as the sitting president at the, Time william, McKinley and
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: he doesn't want this. War he understands something. Instinctively once
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: the war.
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: Starts you don't control how it.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Ends he tries, diplomacy tried to delay. Negotiation he was
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: searching for an, offering but every day the pressure kept,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: building new, headlines new outrage from the, public and A
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: congress that was simply reading the same. Newspapers and here
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: was the. TENSION a president trying to slow down time
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: while the country was trying to speed things. Up and
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: this is the part that matters. Most this wasn't a
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: war forced on The United. States spain hadn't attacked The american,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: mainline not at. All there was no immediate existential. Threat
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: remember we're worrying About spain putting nuclear arsenal in the
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: island Of cuba just ninety miles From american. Territory there
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: was A it was a volatile, situation no, doubt but
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: there were, options which makes this something. Different this was
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: a war of choice that slowly stopped feeling like a
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: war of, choice which was what makes the press's role
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: in this. Uncomfortable so On april, twentieth eighteen ninety, eight
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: choice became starting to get, momentum if you, Will congress
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: passed a joint resolution demanding That spain Leave. Cuba this
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: was not technically a declaration of, war but it functioned like.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: One it's the moment where a decision starts to look like,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: inevitability and inside it was something. Revealing it was The
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: Teller amendment and included this promise The United states will
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: not a Next. Cuba before the war, Begins america defines
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: its moral. Identity this was a good. Thing we are
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: not going to be, conquerors you, know basically Like, spain
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: we want to be in the role of. Liberators that's
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: the story the country needs to tell. Itself it will
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: now be the, last it will not be the last
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: time when a war of choice That america started was
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: grounded in this belief that we were going to be,
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: liberators not. Conquerors but then everything started to happen really.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Fast On april twenty, first The United states imposes a
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: naval blockade Of. Cuba basically that starts the war wasn't,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: declared but it was chosen because in eighteen ninety eight
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: a blockade is considered an active war and it had.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Consequences american ships begin freezing this excuse. Me american ships
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: began Seizing spanish, vessels and again we hadn't technically declared war.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: Yet so On april twenty, Third spain does declare war
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: in The United. States that's their. Response and on twenty,
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: FIFTH i, mean look at this all within five, days,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: man boom, boom boom. Boom congress makes it. Formal but
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: this was a weird. Thing they decided to backdate the.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: War they backdate the war To april. Twenty, first you
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: might ask, why because that's when The United states had
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: already crossed the. Line the declaration isn't starting the, war
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: it's legalizing what already. Happened congress isn't deciding to go
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: to war catching up to the one that had already. Begun,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: now there was another force in the system that was
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: squeezing McKinley. Here so while McKinley was trying to slow things,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: down the accelerant was a gentleman by the name Of Theodore.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Roosevelt at the, time he's The Assistant secretary of The,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: navy and he resigns to fight in the. War By
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: july of eighteen ninety, eight he's In San Juan hill
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: and suddenly he's. Everywhere he's a national. Hero but what
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: matters isn't just the. Battlefield it's what comes. After roosevelt
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: returns with something. Rare he's a popularity that doesn't depend
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: on party. Structure he's, charismatic he's, independent he's. Unpredictable he's
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: a rising, force and that makes him a problem.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: For The republican party in.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Power as One republican power broker put it at the,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: time don't any of you realize there's only one life
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: between this madman and the. Presidency that's how some Establishment,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: republicans that's what they thought Of. Teddy they move him
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: onto the ticket with McKinley vice, president a place they
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: assume will contain, him and a year, later when McKinley is,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: assassinated he becomes.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: President the war.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Didn't just produce a, hero it produced a. President now
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: what does the war? Do the war ends. Fast Actually spain.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: Loses The United states steps into the, Vacuum Puerto, Rico,
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: guam The, philippines across two. Oceans that's the territory we.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Require the country that promised not to Take cuba didn't take.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: It it just took everything else That spain had in
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: The caribbean and out in.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: The, pacific And cuba.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: Well through the Plat, amendment The United states reserved the
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: right to intervene In cuba's. Affairs we didn't own, it
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: but we didn't quite let it go. Either we even
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: helped write some of The. Constitution so when you look
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: at that week Between april twentieth And april twenty, fifth
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: eighteen ninety, eight it's tempting to say it's When america
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: decided to go to. War but it's not quite right
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: because the decision had already been made, slowly publicly and,
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: emotionally until it no longer felt like a decision at.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: All it was a war of choice until it felt
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: like we were back pushed into. It that, kind it's
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: the kind that begins with options and ends with the
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: feeling that there weren't Any you can, Argue AMERICA i
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: had fought wars of choice, before but those wars were
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: about land that would later become part of The United.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: States this wasn't.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: That this was a war fought outside the country that
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: ended With america staying.
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: There, anyway war of choices they just don't go. Well
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: they don't end. Well you just hope it doesn't end
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: in a.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: Disaster and with The Spanish American, war obviously at least
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: it didn't end in a disaster.
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: As, alrighty let's do a little last. Check this one
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: comes From JODY.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: C the question is long, time first time, aspiring five
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: time aer here all? Right trump lacks the character and
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: personal integrity to be the manager of A pizzat all,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: right it looks like we're off to an interesting start, Here,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: jody this isn't a recent, development but as his support
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: erodes with his, base is there any chance twenty Fifth
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: amendment would be invoked to prevent him Using america's standing
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: in the world as viagra to Make i'd like to
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: SEE ps never miss an. Episode i'm forty, five AND
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: i attribute some of my interest in politics to your
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: early career AT, nbc specifically.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: The energy you brought to election night.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: COVERAGE i remember the decision just throwing into our resident political,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: Junkie Chuck, todd and your enthusiasm for the process was
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: and still is. Contagious keep those election live streams coming.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: EXCELLENT i have a fifteen year old daughter who is
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: now politically activated In your election.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: Coverage is appointment viewing for. Us keep up the great,
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: work brother.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: Man that is music to my. Ears, jody thank you
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: so much for saying THAT i do love the. Election
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: so we'll see You tuesday. NIGHT i hope that's what that,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: means seven Pm eastern will be come in on The.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: Earth you know it's.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: Interesting on the TWENTY I i go back to something
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: THAT i sort of felt about in hindsight with the,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: impeachments AND i, say in, hindsight because, look both impeachments were.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Valid obviously when you look at the two that he he.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: Was that he faced the one After january.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: Sixth, now you, know if you you, know if you,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: knew if you, knew if we knew that was gonna,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: happen they might not bother with the first one and
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: just focused all their energy with the second.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: One, Right.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: But let me just say. THIS i think if you
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: use a mechanism that isn't the ballot, box you don't
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: fully eradicate the.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: Problem.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: Right you gotta win this at the ballot. Box you
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: got to defeat him at the ballot. Box he's got
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: to be humiliated.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: At the ballot.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: Box Trump ism has to be defeated at the ballot,
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: box not on a, technicality.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Not you.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: KNOW i that doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: This but here's another ISSUE i. Have you, know, oh
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: hiss behavior is a. Erratic, now well it's been erratic
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: the whole, time AND i know we it feels like it's,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: escalatory but it's kind of been the same. THING i,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: mean this is the same guy that his immediate reaction
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: With john McCain in early on was LIKE i like
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: people who don't get shot, down you, know some ridiculous
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: comment like, that like he's been this erratic behavior is
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: not a recent.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Development SO i JUST i just come back to.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: If you use any other, mechanism it clearly turns him
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: into a martyr with a with a large enough chunk
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: of the country that it becomes a. Problem, Right and
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: he got turned into some weird martyr on free speech
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: and all of this nonsense Following january. Sixth now, again
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: it's all because The Republican party, choked, Right mitch McConnell
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: choked at the at the, moment, right and he's got
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: to live with, that, right he just it is what it.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: IS i promise you there's a whole bunch Of republican
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: senators that are still especially now at the you, know
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: now that he's essentially Put america's he's thrown away whatever
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: prestige we had left on the world stage pretty.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: Much thrown it.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Away i'm sure plenty of them wish That mitch McConnell
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: had had had just pulled the band aid off. Then
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: but it's a. If, AGAIN i go back to, you
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: if you think if you get rid Of trump Or
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: trump is't on a. TECHNICALITY i don't think you actually
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: get rid of. It that's my short answer. There BUT
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: i will see you during our election live stream On,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: tuesday SO i appreciate. That so this next question comes
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: from the mayor Of Harvey, Cedars New. Jersey It's john M,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: imperially mister, MAYOR i appreciate the, question and he, writes
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: thank you again for answering my previous. Question i'm curious
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: Whether James madison's argument In federalist ten that a, large
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: diverse republic would prevent tyranny still holds up, today as
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: if our current division suggest otherwise given out fracture the country,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: feels do we still function as one nation in the
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: Way madison and? Vision and is there any serious case
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: to be made for a new constitutional? Convention if you've
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: if you're ever near The jersey shore or the key
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: to the, city, well small town is waiting for. You
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: oh that's, fantastic mister. Mayor let's just say.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: THAT i.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: Am you, know when you get an offer like, that
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: you put that in the you put that in the
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: file of you put that in the file that you
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: make sure you you check back. With SO i Am
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: i'm putting that in my, pocket, uh my proverbial.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: Pocket SO i, well first of, ALL i do a constitutional.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: Convention i'm not afraid of, it BUT i understand there's
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of partisans that are afraid of. It,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: look we have the rules of what it takes to
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: have a constitucial amendment. Added if we have a country
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: amendment to consider new amendments of The, CONSTITUTION i think
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: they would be quite. Healthy and some sort of governor
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: led effort that would do that maybe would be. INTERESTING
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: i think it's pretty clear That Donald trump has been
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: AN mri on the on the SMALL d democratic system Of, america,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: Right and what DO i mean by, That, well he's
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: exposed all our vulnerabilities and there are a whole bunch
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: of places that turns out we need to update some,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: things whether it's money in, politics whether it's enriching yourself
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: all in. Office there's sort of a lot of SMALL
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: d democratic reforms THAT i think are necessary for this
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: for they essentially we've got to modernize the infrastructure of our. Democracy.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: Right it's, like you, know we're not pulling a big you,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: Know it's, like you, know eventually you had to update
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: your bathrooms to, work you, know differently than the original
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: flush model that indoor plumbing allowed. For, right you just
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: got to, update and our democracy definitely needs some. Updating
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: BUT i also think that the, COUNTRY i would argue
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: that it's not as if the country isn't acting together on. This.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Right there's a large majority now that disapprove of this,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: presidency and they disapprove pretty much on every issue he's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: touching other than the.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: Border. Right SO.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: I don't, KNOW i think that that the in you're,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: in you're sort of seeing political you, know there's been
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: this illusion that somehow political gravity doesn't apply To. Trump
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: well we're SAYING i think that political gravity applies to.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: Him SO i.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: AM i, know we feel, fractured and we definitely are,
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: polarized but you do sort of see you, know it's
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: not like we're swimming against each other in the current, situation,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Right just it is there is definitely a growing majority
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: here that is.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: Sour on this.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Presidency, so, uh and there's a large majority we know
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: what we don't, want, right we just haven't agreed on
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: what we. Want, LOOK i think we're at a period
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: where we've hit some where we've hit some crucial moments
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: where we realize we needed we need to do something.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Right the jerry, mandering how we how we draw election,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: lines this has gotten sort of absolutely. Insane NOW i think,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: THERE i think we need to uncap The. House that
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: make The house Of representatives. Bigger it would make the
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: h it would make the ability to jerry man or
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: not say it goes. Away it just makes it less
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: influential on the overall makeup of The. House if you
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: if we if we had a if we uncapped The
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: house and added essentially expanded the actual size of The
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: house Of, Representatives it's clear we've got to deal with
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: something with dark money and invisible. Money that has got to.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Stop right it, is and we are we are allowing
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: way too much power to be accumulated by the private,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: sector including having some sort of uh too much influence
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: on some national security. ISSUES i, mean just look at
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: the control a guy Like Elon musk has over. Satellites,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Right we've we've allowed a little bit of. That so
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: there's definitely some updating and modernizing that needs to get,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: done AND i think it would be. Healthy SO i
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: do think a constitutional convention to consider new, amendments not
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: to consider a new constitution. RIGHT i think that's The
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: some people hear that and, think, oh a new, constitution
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: by the, way plenty of. Democracy you, know it's amazing
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: how long this constitution has. LASTED i Think i've shared
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: this with listeners. Before but my friend over at that
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: runs The George Washington, Library i've always asked her to this,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: Question Lindsay, SHRAVINSKY i, say, so what was the founders?
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: Thing they came back today AND i, said she, said
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: the number one thing they'd be shocked at is that
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: we're using the same. Constitution and the number two fact
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: they'd be shocked at is that if we are using
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: the same, constitution.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: You really only have twenty seven. Amendments you don't have
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: like twice as. Much. Right, SO i think we're in
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: one of those periods where it would be. Healthy but you,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: KNOW i don't you, know do you do this and
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: sort of force the parties to follow? Along you?
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: KNOW i definitely think there there's there's fracturing happening in both.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Parties you have two very weak political parties right. NOW
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: i wrote about this last week on a column that's
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: both On substack And newsphere if you want to check it.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: OUT i think give you look at what's happen depending
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: in THE, uk where they're two major parties are fracturing
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: and and splintering off into new political. Parties right The
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: tories are being impacted by The Reform party there And
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: labors being chipped away at by The Green. PARTY i
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: think we may see a situation where something like that.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: DEVELOPS i think this is the cycle we'll. See will
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: a couple of independents breakthrough and actually Win, Montana, Nebraska
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: michigan probably the And Kevin kylie who just left The
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: Republican party to run for re election as an. Independent you,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: know do those four?
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: Go you know how many?
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: Win if none, win that's, uh that will probably set
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: back a lot of these independent third party. Movements if two,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: WIN i think it accelerates interest in. It and if
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: three or four, WIN i think IT i think we
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: might think that the moment has.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Arrived so.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Ultimately i'm kind of pro constitutional convention for new amendments
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: and more, importantly MAYOR. Imperialiy why don't you host it
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: on The Jersey shore And i'll share, It you AND
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: i will co share.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: It let's do it all.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: Right next question comes From alan From, minnesota longtime, listener
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: first time. Emailer you've spent a lot of time in
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: your top five segments going over various races likelihoods of.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: Flipping i'd love to see a list of races where
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: the consensus is most wrong that can be defined in several.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: Ways for state wide races coming up In, november you
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: could list the five where you think that betting markets
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: are most, off or where the more most frequently shared
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: takes on major news networks is most. Off that could be,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: subjective but still of. Interest you could even do this
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: separately by party races which either party specifically is too
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: barish or bullish. About this could be a way of
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: teaching the public and your listeners what we're likely getting.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Wrong even if you don't do a top five segment for,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: This i'd be curious to hear if even one or
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: two immediately come to mind for. You thanks for inducting
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: me into the slightly less vaunted one timer. Club, well
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: let's you know make It, Well, look you're riding From
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: minnesota a, lot AND i Think minnesota is a. Race
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: is a state That republicans are underrating their chances. AT
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: i think give a very Divisive senate race there ideological
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: divide between sort of progressives and the and the. Pragmatists
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: Antie craig sort of the leading candidate of the Pragmatist
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Peggy flana again the leading candidate the. Progressives AND i
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: Think Michelle tafoya is potentially a quality. Candidate now she's
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: probably it's it's you, KNOW i think this is part
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: of a two cycle run for her because there'll be
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: Another senate. Race If amy klobasherw wins the governor's, race
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: she'll appoint a. SUCCESSOR i guess is If Anjie craig
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: is not THE Us senator by, election she'll Appoint Antie
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: craig to THE Us.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: Senate BUT i, digress SO i.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Suspect but that's one quickly that comes to mind for
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: me that it's a that that That republicans underrate their
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: own chances In. Minnesota AND i know UNDER i understand
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: why they do, it because they've been kind of lucy
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: with the, football, right they'll throw money in there and
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: it just never you, know they never, succeed But flanagan
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: might just you, know, LOOK i think this political Environment
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: minnesota probably Means republicans can't win because of the mess
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: that ice made, There but if you're asking, me that's
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: one that quickly comes to. Mind on the, right on the,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: left it's always for, me it's almost Always. MISSISSIPPI i
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: think that The National party And National party strategists totally
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: Underrate mississippi's. Competitiveness, yes it's hard for to you, know
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: it's sort of it's very similar To republicans In minnesota
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: And New, jersey, right which are the two states That
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: republicans have a way of becoming competitive but never quite.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: Win mississippi for me is that on The democratic, side you,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: know AND i Guess i'm trying to think of another
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: state i'd put in that category where they where they
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: get competitive but can't quite get over the. Top, well
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: you'd Say, texas, Right It's texas And. Mississippi although this,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: CYCLE i think that they they feel kind of bullish
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: on at least The Texas. Senate i'll tell you a
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: race THAT i Think democrats underrate their, chances AND i
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: think the final result is going to show a more competitive.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: Race than people will be surprised. About It's texas.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: GOVERNOR i Think gina he knows has a strong candidates
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: running all things. Education she focuses on. Education people are
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: pissed about this voucherized. Program it's not let people don't like.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: CHOICE i think people love choice for education in, Schools
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: but if you live in rural parts Of, texas what's your,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: choice right it becomes the public school or, Homeschool AND
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: i don't think some people feel like that's much of a.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Choice SO i think there's a lot of discontent about
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: How republicans have pushed, this and you see. It it's
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: kind of Divided republicans a little. Bit so you, know
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: those are the it's those two, races those those.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: Three come to.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: Mind Texas governor for The, Democrats Minnesota senate for The,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: Republicans Mississippi senate for The. Democrats AND i guess IF
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: i were to do one, more you, know sort of
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: even this out right two and, TWO i GUESS i would.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: Probably.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: Oregon you, KNOW i Think oregon is a much more
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: competitive state For, republicans and they they sort of just, assume,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: well it's sandwich Between Washington, california so it's impossible to.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: Win And oregon is very similar To New jersey And.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: Minnesota there's a high floor For. Republicans they can get
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: to forty five pretty, easily very hard to get that
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: last four or five percentage. Points But oregon is another
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: place THAT i think That republicans under, estimate and you
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: could say that About New, mexico and they're really flailing
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: In New. Mexico they may not even feel the center candidate,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: there which is just shocking Because New mexico has always
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: been a light blue, state not a dark blue.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: STEAK i love the top five suggestion, overall.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: And you got me, Thinking i'm, gonna you, KNOW i
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: want To i'm gonna play around with with your.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: Idea, There so thank you for. That next question comes
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: From bill And, Wilsbury. Pennsylvania he writes On, Wednesday april, fifteenth,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: show DID i hear a dog in the?
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: Background SO i did not know you had a? DOG
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: i feel like you've buried the lead AND i want
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: to know his or her Name fingers.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: Crossed It's. Jessie, also you're a daily listen on the.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: Podcast keep up the good. Work it. Is, yes you
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: DID i?
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: Know my mother said she heard It's. Callie she's about
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: two and a. HALF i got. Her we've we've basically
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: been a two dog family ever since my wife AND
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: i got. Together she had a. DOG i had a
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: dog when she moved, in and so we've always been
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: a two dog.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: Family and.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: It's always been one one bigger, one one bigger, dog
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: one smaller. Dog and that's kind of the situation we've been.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: In so we we're a two dog. Family but the
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: the dog you heard is our bigger. Dog she's our
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: younger dog, now and we obviously go back and forth
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: who gets and the older dog always gets to be the.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: Alpha it's always funny to we've watched these. Dynamics right
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: the minute a dog realizes they get to be the older.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: Alpha you see this, transformation you, know when it comes
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: to toys.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: And food and and and things like.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: That it's a it's it's, uh it's it's, amusing uh
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: and certainly to. Watch but, Yeah callie's pretty. Good she
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: she starts scratching the carpet when she's, like come, on
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: can we?
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: Go can we? Go can we? Go so she was
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: clearly getting a little.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Antsy she may have made an appearance or, TWO i
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: think if You i'm not. SURE i think she might
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: have made an appearance or. Two but, yeah she's mostly pretty.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: Good she's she doesn't Realize i'm talking about her now.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: Because she's now. Snoozing but you, know she already had
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: a big walk, today SO i think we're in good.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: Shape next question comes from comes from The king of
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: The Five Timers.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: Club he said he spent the weekend promoting the, pod,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: which let's be, honest mostly means shamelessly promoting myself as
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: the president of the Ass chuck Five Timer. Club one
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: of my friends mentioned that you And Stephen colbert did
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: a skit back in twenty. Fifteen it got me thinking
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: it's time for a late night. Crossover please consider Bringing
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: colbert or Maybe John, Oliver Seth meyers Or Bill maher
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: on the. Show the political nerdom would be off the.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: Charts Best President chase Of Little, Rock. Arkansas, LOOK i
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: love the. Idea, Yeah i've Done colbert's, Show i've Done mars,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: Show i've Done seth's, show not.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: Done John oliver on that.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: FRONT i do think of colbert appearance is a good.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: One we were working On Jimmy kimmel for a. While that's,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: that you, know we'll see that that's hoping coming. Through
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: but we'll Get colbert. On he's Somebody i've been friendly
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: with for a long time AND i think his political
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: nerddom is. HE i think of, everybody he's probably the
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: guy that was into politics even before he got into
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: late night. Television some of these other guys that are,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: MENTIONED i feel like gravitated towards politics as they as
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: they realized it did well for late, night WHERE i
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: Think colbert kind of was always kind of kind of
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: kind of into it. There and you, know HE'S i
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: love me a, good a good dry humor. Guy AND
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: i just, think you, know the original concept of The
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: colbert rapport uh is still, brilliant is still one of
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: the more brilliant things out. There AND i think in some,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: ways you, know we forget the brilliance of that. Program you,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: know he went and you, know just Became Stephen, colbert you,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: know rather than rather than his his sort of alter.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: Ego let's just hope that after after when he gets
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: to declare his, independence maybe he brings the alter ego
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: and makes that his his central organizing force. Online but,
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: yes we'll we will work on that in the booking.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: Department so thank you for. Those let's sneak in one
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: more question here and then we'll call.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: It we'll call it an. Episode this comes From.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: Chicago, well it's actually comes From MICHAEL l who says
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: he's From, Chicago, illinois In chicago by way Of.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: Nola so what that tells?
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: Me and you know both, cities people From New, orleans
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: even when they, leave they're always From New orleans no
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: matter where they.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: Live they really love to refer them.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: To but Then chicagoans feel the same, way, Right they're
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: always From if you're From, chicago no matter where you,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: live you still feel like you're From.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: Chicago there's a lot of.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: Pride so you Combined chicago And, nola which Is i've
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: got relatives that have, combined had that Combined Chicago nola love,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: affair and it is it is one of. Those it's it's.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: Serious so, anyway let's get to your. Question, Hey, chuck
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: with huge fundraising numbers From senate hopefuls and attention grabbing
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: races Like tallerico And cooper referring To texas cent In
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, center can you give a layman's primer on
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: some of the basic rules regarding what cannon can't be
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: done with that. Cash i'm reminding of big holes from
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: The amy McGraths and The Sarah gideons referring To Kentucky
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: senate And Main center in the, past and always wondered
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: assume there was a reason some of the more eyeball
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: grabbing candidates with big numbers didn't share the wealth with
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: other races where the funds could go a lot. Further You're, Alaska's, mississippi's.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: Etcetera love the pod let chees re, Anyway, WELL i
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: appreciate you being a both THE tk listener and A ct,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: listener if you, will you, know this is part of
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: the you, know this has been part of the struggle
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: right the nationalization of our political. Dialogue and you have
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: and you've seen. It i've seen it on the right
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: where you get candidates who have no, chance but they,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: Say i'm running Against Alexandrio Casio. Cortez give me, money
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: and they raise absurd amounts of money from sort of
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: A i don't want to call it a it's not,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: gullible but you. Are but BUT i do think some
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: of that money comes from semi gullible, people meaning gullible that,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: like they don't fully realize that it's wasted, money but
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: they want to believe they're sort of probably more, naive
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: not quite, gullible but probably more naive about how politics. Works,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: Now i'm somebody who's a bit more who believes that
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: any with the right, candidate the right, spending the right,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: strategy you can you can be competitive in any any
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: any part of the country if you positioned yourself. Correctly
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: So i'm not as LIKE i hate this thought that,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: well that's a red, state so don't bother running if
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: you're not a member Of Team red or that's a blue,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: state don't f find another way to, run right every
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: politics and wards of, vacuum run is an.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: Independent you, know one thing is, true there's always you,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: know there's always.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: An audience for, change no matter the state you live,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: in whether It's, Idaho, vermont or anywhere in the ideological in.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: Betweens but a lot of times you know the, consultants you,
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: know first of all these big money hauls usually it
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: takes a lot of money to raise a lot of.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: Money so a lot of times the people you're focused
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: on are the people that did a lot of national
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: fundraising Through ActBlue and they made. It spend a lot
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: of money On facebook, ads or spend a lot of
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: money on other digital advertising in order to get as
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: many new donors as they, can and then they go
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: back and ask for a couple of dollars all the,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: time you, know you're looking for recurring. Donations and then
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: of course act blue and all and When red both do,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: this which is every, time you, KNOW i think a
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: lot of times they get they encourage, People, hey instead of,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: giving you, know one hundred, dollars now do you want
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: to give twenty dollars every month between now and the?
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: Campaign and it allows them to sort of create a
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: recurring amount of money coming. IN i think both parties
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: need to figure out a better way to to to
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: to take you, know money that's going to be wasted
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: in some, places like it's going to be an interesting
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: challenge In North. CAROLINA i Think COOPER'S i think that
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: race is done, now it's not done, done It's North.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina But cooper's going to have plenty of. Money when
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: when do you when Does cooper start putting that money
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: to use for? OTHERS a lot of times these, campaigns
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: these candidates they don't they want to hoard, right they're
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: not interested in or they want to use their money
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: to maybe help advance their. Ambition you, know maybe they'll you,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: know maybe If cooper's interested in running for, president he
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: suddenly transfers money To Josh, shapiro or transfers money To Wes, Moore,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: right you, know two people that may maybe running for
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: president as. Governors or does he start to give money
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: to Too democrats In, Iowa New, Hampshire South. Carolina, right
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: you could, see you could see something like. That But
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: i'll be really curious Because Roy cooper is going to
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: have a ton of money and he probably won't need it,
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: all but he's probably not going to feel comfortable giving it,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: away not at least not until Mid october when when
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: all them when he knows how much money you, know
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: he's already spent or already had in, hand so.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: DO.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: I we'll, see, right we have no evidence that any
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: of these parties have gotten better at figuring out how
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: to take excess donations and unwinnable races and move that
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: to other, races because ultimately you've got to get the
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: candidate to, agree and that's usually the hardest thing to,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: do is to get the candidates in because they all believe, that,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: well if all these people are giving me, money they
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: must you, know maybe you guys are underestimating, me the
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: general public isn't. Right it just plays into the to
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: the ego of the. Candidate and, remember if you've chosen
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: to run for, office you already have a pretty big
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: ego and so you're not going To you may not
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: be as logical about. This but but a guy Like,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: cooper who's been head of THE dgah knows what it's
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: like for other. Parties so you, Know i'll be curious
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: to see If cooper shares the, wealth and if anybody
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: shares the, wealth he's the ONE i expect the most
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: to share the. Wealth you get a guy like Tall
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: rico In. TEXAS i, mean you, know no matter how
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: much money he, raises it's still never going to be
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: enough for all the, resource for all the all the
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: infrastructure That democrats lack In. Texas so my curiosity there
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: is do they spend the Right do they spend the
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: money there the right?
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: Way you? Know is it is?
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: It are you spending the money both to help you
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: in the current election but maybe create structure that helps
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: you in the next election as. Well both parties have
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: not been good at that over time, either.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: So we'll, say but it's an interesting question.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: Now but LIKE i, said that the probably the biggest
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: test will be For cooper where it looks like it's
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: a done.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: Deal you, know how willing is he going to be
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: to share the? Wealth all, Right, well we will put
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: a pin in this.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: WEEK i have to SAY i have a feeling the
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: first round of THE Nba playoffs are being kind of.
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: Snoozer although thank You La lakers and Watching, lebron you,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: know they do have home court advantage every. Year that's
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: probably to, me that's probably the most interesting. SERIES i,
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: Know Minnesota denver is supposed to be just Because minnesota
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: is one of the few teams that has Beaten denver
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs in a seven game. SERIES i don't you,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: Know i'm not sure of. That one first round SERIES
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: i think is going to end up Being houston IN
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: la Because durant will come. Back they'll probably win win
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: A game two pretty big or game three pretty, Big
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: and you, know the longer the series goes, on the
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: more likelihood That luca makes it. Back and If luca
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: makes it, back The lakers get into the second. Round right,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: now they have to play the problem The lakers have
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: is that they would go to okay it immediately in
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: the next series is okay, see AND i Doubt luca
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: And reeves are both healthy. Enough they need fully healthy
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: team to go after okay, See so they're probably not
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: going to make. It but that's the series THAT i
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: think is going to end up having because it could
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: be the it could Be Lebron james's last Meaningful playoff.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: Appearance so for, me that's something to, watch that's something
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: to soak. In and you, know that's probably for THE
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: i have trying to figure out If i'm rooting for.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: ANYBODY i guess it's The. Spurs you, Know i'm trying to,
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: find you, know who are the most rootable teams. HERE
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: i think it's The spurs and The. KNICKS i just
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: feel sorry For knicks. Fans i'd kind of like to
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: see them in the. FINALS i Think. BRUNSON i Love.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: BRUNSON i enjoy Watching Jalen. Brunson so you, know IF
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: i could Get Nick spurs in the, Finals i'd have
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: a good time with. THAT i guess that's where Where i'll,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: be you, know slightly, pulling but you, KNOW i just
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: want some competitive. Basketball we haven't had COMPETITIVE nba basketball
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: really since before The All star, break you, KNOW i mean,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: this this second half of THIS nba season was just
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: a was just a shit, show and the commissioner knows.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: IT i think we See atlanta's being. Exposed you know.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: That Oh atlanta did, well they beat all the tanking.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: Teams they weren't a legitimately good, team and The knicks
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: are already exposing.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: Them.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: Right this was this was a shameful season for THE.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: Nba hopefully they will come up with real rays to
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: try to fix. This and you, know if they if
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: all the top teams, win if all the favorites win
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: as we, expect starting with the you, know the final, eight,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: right the final sixteen is kind of you, know but
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: if the final, eight that we may get the final
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: four on each. Side these things could be a lot
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: of fun to watch throughout the month Of. May so with,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: That i'm gonna put a pin in this. EPISODE i
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: will see. You we've got the live Stream tuesday. Night
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: chrystial is a decision DESK. Hq we will be calling
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: it faster than everybody else. Does so if you want
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: to be on top of The virginia results, first there's
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: only one place to tune into, first you know, That
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: so we'll have That. Tuesday i'll have a new episode
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: of course On, wednesday.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: And i'll see you. There thanks for. Listening don't get
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: to like and. Subscribe yah