Demographic Trends and Real Interest Rates: Laubach-Williams r, Summers Secular Stagnation, Eggertsson-Mehrotra-Robbins OLG, Goodhart-Pradhan Great Demographic Reversal, and Dependency Ratio Dissaving

Deep End Era. Engineering with Sankalp · Oct 29, 2026 · 1h 17m

Fertility rates in South Korea, Japan, Italy, and China have plunged well below replacement while longevity keeps rising. Does an aging world face decades of secular stagnation and negative natural real interest rates as capital-to-labor ratios swell and longevity savers hoard safe assets—or are we entering Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan's Great Demographic Reversal, where shrinking workforces, elderly dissaving, and ballooning pension and healthcare deficits drive real interest rates and inflation structurally higher? We build the macroeconomics of demographics and $r^$ from first…