Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW REPORT: $3.41T Giant SENDS HUGE BITCOIN WARNING [FULL BREAKDOWN] | EP 1472

Transcript

NEW REPORT: $3.41T Giant SENDS HUGE BITCOIN WARNING [FULL BREAKDOWN] | EP 1472 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:01
  Google's new report claims Bitcoin wallets could be hacked
• 0:05
  in 9 minutes. When the third largest company
• 0:09
  in the world drops a report like this, people listen and the
• 0:12
  entire Internet has been freaking out since this drop.
• 0:15
  But I think the real interesting thing about this report is that
• 0:19
  when you look into who actually co-authored it, I think you
• 0:23
  might get the signal. And it's co-authored by Coinbase
• 0:25
  and the Ethereum Foundation. So it really makes you wonder,
• 0:30
  is this just another attack on Bitcoin?
• 0:33
  We're gonna do a full breakdown of it.
• 0:35
  And I think most surprising about this is Bitcoin's still at
• 0:39
  67 K right now. Oh, Mika's popping in.
• 0:43
  Let's be specific, popping in. Google dropped a report that.
• 0:46
  Said yeah, yeah, let me. Quantum computing is gonna break
• 0:50
  Bitcoin's cryptographic. Algorithm, yes, that's what it's
• 0:53
  saying. So let me let me read some of
• 0:55
  these headlines guys, 'cause some of the headlines are
• 0:57
  actually kind of crazy. So here's the first one I'm
• 1:00
  going to pull up from Yahoo and it goes Google warns quantum
• 1:04
  attacks could crack Bitcoin in 9 minutes.
• 1:08
  I do have one from Forbes, which is written by our boy Javier
• 1:11
  Bostardo, you know, great Venezuelan bitcoiner.
• 1:14
  And that one, I think really gives you the hint here.
• 1:18
  It really, it really exposes what this is about.
• 1:20
  So we're going to start here. We're going to read the Yahoo
• 1:23
  one. It goes after announcing A2029
• 1:25
  target for migration to post quantum cryptography.
• 1:29
  Google has warned that a quantum system could attack a Bitcoin
• 1:33
  transaction in about 9 minutes. Obviously, this isn't so much
• 1:37
  about just stealing, say, Satoshi's coins, coins that are
• 1:41
  sitting there with this new report, with this new
• 1:44
  experiment, or rather more of a theory, more of a thought
• 1:47
  experiment. When you really look into it,
• 1:49
  they're basically saying that Quantum will get to the point
• 1:54
  where it can steal transactions in real time before they're
• 1:56
  settled. Of course, they just said this
• 1:59
  is going to happen today, which is I think where the
• 2:02
  conversation really goes. When I break this down, a lot of
• 2:06
  people on Twitter, basically all of the names that you are
• 2:10
  familiar with that are huge Quantum FUD guys are like
• 2:14
  panicking. They're like, I've been telling
• 2:16
  you this is happening. The price is down because
• 2:18
  Quantum risk is already priced in from AI.
• 2:23
  Think a a less, I don't know, panic position.
• 2:27
  You realize there is still time for this to happen and it is
• 2:30
  actually being looked into, so I'm not gonna read the whole
• 2:33
  understanding of the quantum. But here is what happened.
• 2:36
  On March 30th, Google published a new white paper in which
• 2:39
  researchers explained that most cryptocurrencies depend on the
• 2:42
  256 bit elliptic curve discrete log problem, or ECD LP256 to
• 2:48
  secure wallets and transactions. The paper found that it could
• 2:51
  take fewer than 500,000 qubits, far less than the millions of
• 2:54
  qubits cited earlier, to crack the cryptography used by crypto
• 2:59
  currencies like Bitcoin and Etherium.
• 3:01
  Quote. This is an approximately 20 fold
• 3:03
  reduction in the number of physical qubits required to
• 3:06
  solve EC DLP 256. And here is how grave Google
• 3:10
  estimated the threat to be. Instead of going after old
• 3:13
  wallets, a quantum hacker could target real time Bitcoin
• 3:16
  transactions. When a Bitcoin transaction is
• 3:19
  made, the public key is revealed for a brief period.
• 3:21
  A powerful and fast quantum computer can use the public key
• 3:24
  to arrive at the private key and steal the money.
• 3:28
  Such a quantum computer could be prepared to launch the attack in
• 3:31
  advance by making necessary calculations and then crack a
• 3:34
  Bitcoin transaction about 9 minutes, the paper warned.
• 3:37
  Obviously, roughly about 10 minutes for transactions to
• 3:41
  settle. Now let's pop over to Forbes
• 3:43
  because that one is very high on the FUD.
• 3:46
  That one's like, oh man, this is eminent.
• 3:48
  This is going to happen. I think this forb article from
• 3:51
  our BOR Javier, I think this really exposes what this is all
• 3:55
  about. This titled on Forbes is Google
• 3:59
  finds quantum computers could break Bitcoin sooner than
• 4:02
  expected. And I I think this is a more
• 4:04
  realistic headline here, less fun.
• 4:06
  It it does, you know, highlight what was discovered in this
• 4:11
  report, but it's also not so much of A panic.
• 4:15
  It's not like it's over tomorrow, bro.
• 4:17
  So again, I just covered the report came out, they had Google
• 4:22
  AI researchers demonstrating that in fact, you know, maybe
• 4:26
  it's going to take less quantum computing qubits than we thought
• 4:30
  it was going to be, which is I think where the real panic came
• 4:32
  out. But this is where it gets
• 4:34
  interesting to me. The paper carries serious
• 4:37
  institutional weight. Its co-authors include Justin
• 4:40
  Drake of the Ethereum Foundation, Don Bonnie of
• 4:43
  Stanford and six Google Quantum AI researchers led by Ryan
• 4:47
  Babesh and Hartmett Nevin. Google says it engaged with the
• 4:51
  US government before publishing and names Coinbase to Stanford
• 4:54
  Institute for Blockchain Research and the Ethereum
• 4:57
  Foundation as collaborators. I.
• 5:01
  I I think personally that's like this is where this is where it
• 5:05
  all comes from. If you look into it and I looked
• 5:09
  at Justin Drake on Twitter, here is like his response to it in
• 5:14
  his Twitter bio, it says Bitcoin security researcher, but he
• 5:19
  works at the Ethereum Foundation.
• 5:21
  So I, I think you're starting to see where the bias is coming
• 5:24
  from now. It's hard to really pinpoint
• 5:26
  what they're going to gain from this.
• 5:28
  Obviously there's been a lot of talk about quantum computing and
• 5:31
  in this post I'm not going to read the whole thing, but you
• 5:33
  can see I think where the bias happens at the tail end of this
• 5:37
  post. And he goes Bitcoin proof of
• 5:39
  work. Commercially viable Bitcoin
• 5:41
  proof of work via Grover's algorithm is not happening
• 5:44
  anytime soon. We're talking decades, possibly
• 5:47
  centuries away. This observation should help
• 5:49
  focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr.
• 5:52
  Side note, as an unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I
• 5:56
  still believe Bitcoin proof of work is cooked due to the
• 5:59
  dwindling security budget. So you're you're starting to see
• 6:03
  the incentives growing here. Not only is it backed by
• 6:07
  Ethereum foundation and Coinbase, which as you guys
• 6:10
  know, I'm not the biggest fan of what Coinbase has been doing,
• 6:13
  but the lead quote UN quote quote, UN quote, right quote, UN
• 6:19
  quote Bitcoin security researcher is a guy that works
• 6:23
  at the theorem foundation and is bearish on bitcoins proof of
• 6:28
  work. I think that would tell
• 6:30
  everything. Personally, I think that that
• 6:33
  eliminates this whole idea as a FUD at just pure FUD, a pure
• 6:36
  attack. Now, of course, Nick Carter, you
• 6:38
  guys know Nick Carter has been beating the trail, beating the
• 6:42
  drum leading this conversation about quantum computing and how
• 6:45
  we need to fix it today or it's over Bros.
• 6:48
  And he is kind of taking a victory lap basically saying,
• 6:51
  hey, I've been telling you guys this is the case.
• 6:54
  I've been telling you that the institutions are concerned about
• 6:56
  quantum from a, you know, like a broader Bitcoin perspective of
• 7:01
  Bitcoin, not just in a vacuum. If quantum computing did get to
• 7:05
  the point where it's cracking, you know, cryptography, we have
• 7:08
  a lot bigger problems on our hands.
• 7:10
  And I I don't think Bitcoin is going to be the biggest concern
• 7:14
  here. It literally means like the
• 7:15
  modern world is done for. Everything's going to be
• 7:18
  cracked. And yeah, we could, we could,
• 7:20
  since we are Bitcoiners, we obviously hyper focus on
• 7:23
  Bitcoin. But that means most of
• 7:26
  traditional finance, literally, you know, these security codes
• 7:29
  holding nuclear arms like this is a huge catastrophe if this
• 7:34
  happened. But I think that the reason
• 7:36
  we're having these conversations now is because one, obviously it
• 7:40
  seems with this new theory, again, I will look, I will break
• 7:44
  down exactly what it said. But with this new report,
• 7:49
  they're saying, hey, it's actually going to take less
• 7:51
  computation than we expected by a lot.
• 7:55
  And further, it might be coming up sooner than we think.
• 7:59
  You know, the, the, the deadline, the ETA has been
• 8:02
  roughly 20-30 after this report. They're moving there kind of,
• 8:06
  you know, Q day kind of Armageddon quantum's going to
• 8:10
  crack everything to 2029. So the timeline is starting to
• 8:13
  shift. And I think that is part of the
• 8:16
  conversation of just how fast things are evolving, whether
• 8:19
  it's AI, whether it's quantum computing, like things are
• 8:22
  moving very quickly and and we can acknowledge that and still,
• 8:27
  you know, have have a little semblance of logic lesson and
• 8:29
  not just freaking out with fear and FUD and all of the kind of
• 8:34
  concern trolling here. But an interesting community
• 8:38
  note is on this coin Bureau post about this, There's a post,
• 8:42
  obviously it's talking about this headline and check out this
• 8:45
  brutal community note. And it goes, there was no
• 8:47
  confirmed breakthrough or eminent threat.
• 8:50
  The recent Google quantum headlines are about future risk
• 8:53
  planting, not current compatibility.
• 8:55
  There is no machine today that can break any encryption, let
• 8:58
  alone Bitcoin. And that's where this
• 9:01
  conversation is interesting. And actually, before I give you
• 9:05
  like a full breakdown, I saw Wicked post a good, good one.
• 9:08
  Let me, let me see. Did did I pull it up?
• 9:10
  I thought I pulled this one. Yeah.
• 9:12
  Here we go. Here's Wicked trolling.
• 9:13
  He goes. We figured out how to make the
• 9:16
  algorithm that breaks Bitcoin run more efficiently on a
• 9:19
  quantum computer that will never actually exist.
• 9:22
  So you're seeing the kind of fear mongering concern trolling
• 9:27
  about this in the headlines and also from groups that I think
• 9:31
  are incentivized to attack Bitcoin because they're backed
• 9:35
  by a shit coin that is bitcoins quote lead competitor here.
• 9:39
  But when you look into it, this like wicked's troll here, this
• 9:42
  meme here is literally what happened.
• 9:45
  And so going further more of a more solid breakthrough or
• 9:49
  breakdown from TFTC and it goes a quantum computer just quote
• 9:53
  broke Bitcoin. Except it didn't.
• 9:55
  Not not even close. Google Quantum AI publisher
• 9:58
  papers showing they've cut the theoretical EC DSA attack down
• 10:01
  to 1200 logical qubits. They didn't publish the
• 10:04
  circuits, they didn't run the attack.
• 10:06
  They published A0 knowledge proof that their math works,
• 10:09
  then cited national security. Here's where we actually are
• 10:13
  entangled logical qubits achieved so far 96.
• 10:16
  The coherence time is 1 to 2 seconds time.
• 10:19
  The attack requires days. Physical qubits needed 500,000.
• 10:23
  Largest quantum computer today is 1200 noisy non error
• 10:27
  corrected qubits. That's 100,000 X coherence gap.
• 10:31
  It's not a software problem. It's a fundamental engineering
• 10:33
  problem that nobody has solved. But here's what most people are
• 10:36
  missing. Bitcoin developers.
• 10:38
  We aren't waiting for this crisis.
• 10:40
  It's already shipping. We're already talking about
• 10:42
  this. There's already conversations
• 10:44
  about, of course updating bitcoins, cryptography,
• 10:48
  encryption so that it is quantum proof.
• 10:50
  This has been a conversation that's going on, but you are
• 10:53
  seeing that there is a lot of FUD around quantum and the
• 10:56
  timing I think is also very suspicious.
• 10:59
  Like Bitcoin seemed to be having a bottom and now we get a new
• 11:03
  Quantum report backed by Google, co-authored by Coinbase and the
• 11:07
  Ethereum Foundation. It's like, OK, what, what, why
• 11:11
  are they doing this now? What, what is the point?
• 11:14
  And it's not like this is a, a new conversation.
• 11:17
  Satoshi himself talked about this.
• 11:20
  We've been talking about this for over a decade at this point
• 11:23
  in Bitcoin. This is not a new conversation,
• 11:26
  but you are seeing a lot of concern trolling, a lot of fear
• 11:28
  mongering. The FUD is coming out.
• 11:30
  We're literally rolling out the same FUD that we've seen in
• 11:33
  Bitcoin for years. But now that there is, you know,
• 11:36
  seemingly authoritative reports about this, it, it's starting to
• 11:41
  catch headlines. Everyone's freaking out on
• 11:43
  Twitter. You're seeing crazy headlines
• 11:45
  from the corporate press. But of course, you know, here's
• 11:49
  conversations been happening since 2010.
• 11:52
  However, here's Satoshi quote tweeting.
• 11:55
  There's a quote in this. However, something happened and
• 11:57
  the signatures were compromised. Perhaps integer factorization is
• 12:00
  solved, quantum computers, etcetera.
• 12:02
  Then even agreeing upon the last valid block would be worthless.
• 12:05
  Of course, Satoshi goes true if it happens suddenly.
• 12:07
  If it happens gradually, we can still transition to something
• 12:10
  stronger. When you run the upgraded
• 12:11
  software for the first time, it would resign all your money with
• 12:14
  the new stronger signature algorithm by creating a
• 12:16
  transaction, sending the money to yourself with a stronger
• 12:19
  stronger sig. So again, this is actually
• 12:22
  happening gradually. Yes, there seems to be quote
• 12:26
  breakthroughs, but again, it's in theory like there there is no
• 12:30
  actual computer that can crack quantum.
• 12:34
  But you do see when this conversation happens, people
• 12:38
  take it and run with it. And it's it's a very easy
• 12:41
  headline. It's a very easy FUD, not only
• 12:43
  to dismantle, but to run with. And see, I told you Bitcoin was
• 12:46
  trash. I told you Bitcoin was going to
• 12:48
  0. And I think this is exactly
• 12:51
  where we are now. Shout out to my boy Dom.
• 12:53
  He did a good quote tweet here and he is quote tweeting
• 12:57
  literally one of the authors of this report and he says, and
• 13:01
  this was in 2025 December, so not that long ago.
• 13:05
  And the quote is to my knowledge today, quantum computers cannot
• 13:08
  yet solve any valuable real world problems.
• 13:11
  So on the one hand, one of the reporters, one of the analysts
• 13:15
  researchers is, is essentially saying publicly on stage a
• 13:19
  couple of months ago, quantum computing is nowhere near this.
• 13:22
  And then on the other hand, they're like, well, in theory
• 13:26
  they could crack it if XY and Z were solved for it.
• 13:30
  So you're starting to see there, there really isn't Bitcoin being
• 13:34
  cracked. The headline is good, Bitcoin
• 13:36
  gets cracked in 9 minutes. Wallets are going to be hacked.
• 13:40
  You know, let's all panic, let's freak out about it, but we're
• 13:44
  not there yet. The quantum computers are not
• 13:47
  even close to being able to crack anything in real life.
• 13:50
  These computers aren't built that we don't even have enough,
• 13:55
  you know, qubits. There's not enough computation
• 13:57
  for these computers to even be built.
• 14:00
  It's really this idea. In theory, this could happen,
• 14:03
  which is where literally where we've been for what, 1616 years
• 14:08
  on this conversation. But now it has become a moment
• 14:13
  where there is a pressure point here.
• 14:17
  There is a conversation of people saying, see, I've been
• 14:20
  telling you we need to update Bitcoin.
• 14:22
  This is going to happen in somewhere between 2:00 to 9:00
• 14:24
  years. We got to be ready for this.
• 14:26
  Bitcoiners have been ready for this.
• 14:28
  Bitcoiners are actively working on this.
• 14:30
  Yes, It's not a sexy headline to be like, yeah, we're going to
• 14:33
  make it quantum proof. But it they're working on it.
• 14:36
  Bitcoiners are ahead of the curve.
• 14:39
  This is on the radar for Bitcoin.
• 14:40
  I don't think it's as big a concern as we're seeing from the
• 14:44
  headlines. And of course, like the
• 14:47
  incentives here are are just skewed.
• 14:52
  The researchers are not only from the Ethereum Foundation,
• 14:57
  they are quantum, you know, AI quote experts, but even them,
• 15:02
  they're having kind of distorting point of view here.
• 15:05
  On the one hand, quantum computing is going to crack
• 15:07
  Bitcoin. On the other hand, wait, quantum
• 15:10
  computers aren't even up to par to solve anything in real life.
• 15:14
  This is like the utmost you can find right now.
• 15:18
  But as we've seen and there has been a lot of conversation about
• 15:22
  this, which is probably why we're talking about it today, is
• 15:25
  there is a push to get this done now.
• 15:29
  And by that I mean updating Bitcoin to be quantum proof.
• 15:32
  But further, we have seen from the institutions, you know,
• 15:36
  whether it's Wall Street, whether it's think takes,
• 15:39
  whether it's colleges like Stanford, they, they are pushing
• 15:42
  this idea that this needs to happen now or else Bitcoin is
• 15:46
  over. And that's just not the case.
• 15:48
  That's just far from the case. In actuality, we're not even
• 15:52
  near this. Yes, our timelines are shifting.
• 15:55
  Yes, in theory we knew this was going to happen.
• 15:57
  But as I started the show, when Google says this, people do
• 16:01
  listen to it and they just read the headlines.
• 16:04
  They don't really look into what actually happened, what the
• 16:07
  technical details really are. This is, this is the old FUD,
• 16:13
  the same as the new FUD. We, we, we're just not there
• 16:17
  yet, guys. Yeah.
• 16:18
  So let me try and chime in here. So I'm going to read you guys 1
• 16:22
  of Satoshi. Satoshi actually responded to
• 16:25
  this back in 2010, so long time ago.
• 16:30
  So this was this is Satoshi's own words he said.
• 16:35
  True if it happens. Someone commented and and
• 16:38
  Satoshi was replying to him said however, if something happened
• 16:41
  and the signatures were compromised, then you know and
• 16:46
  then the person the original poster suggested quantum
• 16:48
  computers, then even agreeing upon the last valid block would
• 16:52
  be worthless. Satoshi replied true.
• 16:55
  If it happens suddenly, if it happens gradually, we can still
• 16:58
  transition to something stronger.
• 17:00
  When you run the upgrade software for the first time, it
• 17:03
  would re sign all your money with the new stronger signature
• 17:07
  algorithm. Now, a couple things I do want
• 17:09
  to talk about, right, because this report was dropped by
• 17:13
  Google and this would not only compromise Bitcoin, but it would
• 17:16
  essentially compromise basically the entire Internet that's
• 17:19
  running on non quantum resistant encryption, right?
• 17:23
  So it wouldn't just be Bitcoin that'd be compromised, it'd be
• 17:26
  everything else. Now, the fundamental difference
• 17:28
  between Bitcoin and everything else is that Bitcoin isn't
• 17:31
  centralized and it isn't a democracy.
• 17:34
  It requires consensus for you to have this type of fork because
• 17:37
  it would require a fork. And that's where things get a
• 17:41
  little bit tricky, and they're a little, a little bit tricky and
• 17:45
  a little bit political. So let me give you guys one
• 17:47
  example first. We don't know if it's even
• 17:52
  possible to crack addresses where the public key has never
• 17:56
  been exposed, right? We don't know that.
• 17:59
  We know that This is why you shouldn't reuse addresses, by
• 18:02
  the way. We know that once you use an
• 18:06
  address and let's say you use that address again and the
• 18:09
  public key was exposed and that type of address potentially is
• 18:14
  vulnerable to quantum attacks in the future, right?
• 18:20
  The other thing I'll say is what, what's going to happen
• 18:24
  with Satoshi's coins, because a lot of those coins were spent,
• 18:28
  right? So a lot of those coins, we do
• 18:31
  know the public key of a lot of those addresses, right, of, of
• 18:34
  the original 1,000,000 Satoshi coins and that's 1,000,000
• 18:37
  coins. That's a that's a lot of the
• 18:39
  supply that, that, that could, that that could potentially be,
• 18:44
  you know, you can call it mind or, you know, brute force or
• 18:47
  whatever. What what happens to all the
• 18:50
  other lost coins, right? So that that when I mean
• 18:53
  contentious and when I mean that there's going to be a debate.
• 18:56
  That's what I'm talking about, right?
• 18:58
  Because the community is so divided on this 100%.
• 19:01
  Now, I come from the camp of like, I don't think Satoshi's
• 19:05
  coins should move, right? Like one of the greatest things
• 19:08
  Satoshi ever did was disappear, right?
• 19:11
  That was like one of the one of the greatest things he ever did.
• 19:14
  And I hope no one ever finds out his identity.
• 19:17
  If you're still searching for Satoshi's identity, you don't
• 19:20
  get it. You don't understand it, right?
• 19:24
  Who Satoshi was or the group of people that he was isn't
• 19:29
  important. What he left us is important,
• 19:32
  right? So anyhow, but that's still
• 19:36
  1,000,000 coins that could potentially be dropped on the
• 19:40
  market as a a, a a great deal of the supply, right?
• 19:46
  So that's talked about, right. What about all the other coins
• 19:49
  that are lost? What about the people that are
• 19:51
  not sophisticated enough to, you know, switch to the new
• 19:56
  addresses? Like because Bitcoin isn't a
• 19:59
  centralized protocol, right? Comes with trade-offs.
• 20:03
  It's not easy to just do a centralized, you know, software
• 20:08
  upgrade like you would with an iPhone, for example.
• 20:10
  You know, they send you like a software update at night.
• 20:13
  You, you know, you wait, you go to sleep, you wake up and then
• 20:16
  your, your phone has the new update, right?
• 20:18
  Like Bitcoin doesn't work like that.
• 20:20
  Whoever's running the nodes get to choose what type of software
• 20:23
  they're running, whoever, you know, downloads the wallets,
• 20:27
  they get to choose what type of wallets they're using, right?
• 20:30
  That that's just the reality. They're still Ogs that are still
• 20:33
  using like the original Bitcoin addresses to start with one and
• 20:37
  they have like hundreds of thousands of coins.
• 20:39
  And they, and I'm, and I'm 99% sure these dudes are using paper
• 20:43
  wallets, right? Like so, you know, again, it it
• 20:47
  because it's not centralized, switching to something quantum
• 20:53
  resistant would be like, it would be messy and it would take
• 20:58
  a long time. So I think we do have to
• 21:02
  address, yes, theoretically this could potentially be a problem.
• 21:09
  I don't think anyone is denying that.
• 21:12
  You know, Nick Carter has been beating the battle drums all
• 21:14
  morning or I think it was yesterday basically saying like,
• 21:17
  look like this is this is a problem.
• 21:19
  This is an issue. I I don't, I'm not denying that,
• 21:23
  but what I am saying is this flood has been around for a
• 21:26
  decade. I mean, like Satoshi was even
• 21:30
  talking about this back in 2010, right?
• 21:32
  So 16 years ago, they're talking about the quantum threats to
• 21:37
  Bitcoin. I still think that this is, you
• 21:42
  know, at least a decade out, in my humble opinion.
• 21:47
  And there's a bunch of very smart cryptographers that are
• 21:50
  actively working on this. They're actively trying to solve
• 21:54
  this problem or, or trying to come up with solutions.
• 21:57
  But you know, switching Bitcoin like updating the software isn't
• 22:02
  going to be easy. It's going to require a mass
• 22:05
  consensus of a lot of people that are actively running the
• 22:08
  Bitcoin nodes and people that have Bitcoin wallets to upgrade.
• 22:13
  They're all going to have to do it individually.
• 22:15
  Like there is no force patch that's going to be sent out,
• 22:18
  right? So, and but again, you know,
• 22:23
  incentives are are extremely powerful.
• 22:25
  So it that doesn't really, you know, that doesn't really, that
• 22:30
  doesn't really concern me. Now a couple things I do want to
• 22:32
  mention too is this is theoretical.
• 22:36
  So this is a theoretical thing. They haven't really showed this
• 22:42
  on a on a bigger scale, right? What they have showed is, oh,
• 22:48
  you know, we found something that we can do about efficiency
• 22:54
  relating to quantum computers, but it's still isn't prove
• 22:58
  proven whether they can build these at scale for it to
• 23:04
  potentially be a threat to Bitcoin.
• 23:08
  But clearly it's something to keep an eye on.
• 23:11
  It's something that we've known since the very beginning of of
• 23:15
  Bitcoin and I think it's I think it's important to you know, to
• 23:22
  to understand what's happening here.
• 23:25
  Now I do want to talk about, you know, what this means for your
• 23:30
  bags ultimately, because, you know, This is why we're here.
• 23:34
  A lot of a lot of us, This is why we're here.
• 23:37
  So very simple. Bitcoin and most crypto rely on
• 23:42
  elliptic curve cryptography to generate public addresses from
• 23:45
  private keys. If a quantum computer can solve
• 23:49
  the discrete logarithm problem efficiently, an attacker could
• 23:53
  derive a private key from a public key ad from a public
• 23:56
  address, allowing them to steal funds or forge transaction.
• 24:00
  The biggest risk? Address reuse.
• 24:03
  So you shouldn't reuse the same address every time you're
• 24:06
  receiving Bitcoin or you're sending Bitcoin.
• 24:09
  It should be sent to a new change address and it should be
• 24:12
  sent to a new address entirely. You shouldn't be using old
• 24:15
  addresses. That's like, that's like the
• 24:17
  number one thing you should be doing right now.
• 24:20
  If this is the type of thing that keeps you up at night.
• 24:22
  Once you send a transaction, your public key is exposed.
• 24:28
  So anyways, what are the recommendations of the study
• 24:32
  'cause I think it's important stop reusing wallet addresses.
• 24:35
  I think that's an obvious one. Addresses the lost coin problem.
• 24:39
  The paper suggests the community develop policies to handle these
• 24:43
  vulnerable assets, agility and protocol design as quantum
• 24:48
  capabilities evolve. Now that last one, again, if we,
• 24:53
  you know, we were talking about the Etherium Foundation.
• 24:55
  This is all about, you know, kind of the Etherium philosophy.
• 24:58
  Move fast, break things. You know, they really do treat
• 25:02
  it like this like text software product type thing that I don't
• 25:05
  really know what it does other than like have second layer
• 25:08
  tokens on top of it. But like what does it solve?
• 25:11
  I have no idea. You could say it's useful for
• 25:13
  those second layer tokens on top of Etherium.
• 25:16
  You that you can't deny that it they don't have use now do they
• 25:19
  have value? I don't think so, but you you
• 25:24
  could make an argument that they do some whatever.
• 25:26
  But anyways, Etherium's entire philosophy is right.
• 25:28
  It's a centralized foundation. They kind of make the rules.
• 25:31
  They own the majority of the supply and you know, it allows
• 25:34
  them it it, it gives them the ability to do these massive
• 25:38
  updates. Right.
• 25:39
  So that last point I I'm a little bit hesitant on I'm a
• 25:43
  little bit skeptical. Better said, but the lost coin
• 25:47
  problem, I would say that is up for that's a huge, that's going
• 25:51
  to be a, a massive debate. I mean, we've been talking about
• 25:55
  the whole, you know, the centralization of mining pools
• 25:59
  and the proposed, you know, BIP solution to that.
• 26:03
  You know, and look how contentious it's been in within
• 26:07
  the Bitcoin community between the Luke Dash camp and the other
• 26:12
  camp like the Bitcoin Core camp and the Knotts camp.
• 26:15
  Like it's been extremely contentious to say the least.
• 26:19
  So this type of upgrade, this type of fork, this type of, you
• 26:25
  know, like contentious is like not even like this is going to
• 26:30
  put the block size wars to shame basically because like.
• 26:35
  I don't really think so. I think so, man.
• 26:37
  Because essentially like, like, OK, like.
• 26:40
  Like everyone's incentivized to be quantum proof.
• 26:43
  Yeah, but quantum resistance. Like OK, but like.
• 26:46
  I mean, I, I think maybe the contention is on the solution.
• 26:49
  I, I, I probably agree on that, but I think we all are going to
• 26:52
  want to. Upgrade Like I understand that
• 26:54
  that it's not people that are actively using Bitcoin that have
• 26:58
  access to those addresses. I think the problem arises when
• 27:03
  essentially this upgrade gets to decide that the Satoshi coins
• 27:08
  are unusable. Oh yeah, OK, that.
• 27:10
  That's a very slippery slope because now all of a sudden
• 27:13
  you're basically deciding, OK, this part of the supply is
• 27:17
  unusable. If you set that type of
• 27:19
  precedent, who's to say that's not going to be used against you
• 27:23
  in the future? That goes against the censorship
• 27:27
  resistant nature of Bitcoin, right?
• 27:30
  And then you talk about mandatory migrations, right?
• 27:33
  You talk about a burn, right? Let's say you don't migrate to
• 27:37
  the new addresses by a specific time, then those coins are
• 27:40
  burned. All of that I'm telling you guys
• 27:42
  right now it's it's I don't even I can't even tell you guys my
• 27:46
  opinion and my answers because The thing is to this is that
• 27:49
  there isn't a perfect solution. It just comes with trade-offs.
• 27:53
  Like if you do this, this is what the trade-offs are.
• 27:56
  If you do that, this is what the trade-offs are.
• 27:59
  And I guarantee you that there's going to be unintended
• 28:02
  consequences here, right? So like, you know, like that,
• 28:06
  that is kind of like my my concern.
• 28:09
  But in terms of timeline, let's talk about this because Google
• 28:13
  is talking about 2029, which is 2 1/2 years away.
• 28:18
  It's not even that far away. Do I think quantum computers are
• 28:23
  going to crack Bitcoin in 2 1/2 years?
• 28:27
  The answer is absolutely not. Do I think this could
• 28:32
  potentially be a problem by the mid twenty 30s, you know, early
• 28:37
  twenty 40s? Possibly, potentially, yeah,
• 28:42
  probably yes, 100%. But do I think this is going to
• 28:47
  be a problem in the next 2 1/2 years?
• 28:49
  No, no. And the reason I'm bringing up
• 28:51
  the next 2 1/2 years is because that's when the next Bitcoin
• 28:54
  cycle is. So like, like the, the higher,
• 28:59
  the higher the Bitcoin price goes, the greater the incentive
• 29:03
  for someone to solve this type of problem.
• 29:06
  Like if you think that strategy and Michael Saylor is basing his
• 29:11
  entire company's legacy and future on the future price
• 29:15
  appreciation of Bitcoin, If you think he's just going to sit on
• 29:19
  his hands and just be like, you know what, whatever quantum
• 29:24
  computing, it's coming, whatever this is in that like, you know,
• 29:30
  I got a bridge to sell you, bro, because like, like that's not
• 29:33
  going to happen. So there there's a massive
• 29:36
  economic incentive by the holders of Bitcoin to solve this
• 29:42
  problem, right? And again, I don't think it's a
• 29:44
  problem to solve. I think it's basically we have
• 29:48
  to make up a, we have to make a decision as a community on which
• 29:56
  route we're going to take and what are the trade-offs that
• 29:59
  come with that direction. To put it simply and bluntly,
• 30:05
  that's the TLDR here, ladies and gentlemen.
• 30:08
  So yeah, I mean, this is quite interesting.
• 30:12
  We'll, we'll, we'll stay on top of it.
• 30:13
  We'll keep talking about it. But if you are to take anything
• 30:17
  away from today's show, this isn't going to happen anytime
• 30:20
  soon. So I don't think you should be
• 30:21
  worried for the next 5 years at least, which is a a cycle.
• 30:26
  And then stop reusing your wallet addresses.
• 30:29
  Like if you want to protect yourself now, don't use the same
• 30:32
  wallet address. It's as simple as that.
• 30:34
  Like if you have a friend or you have like because the exchanges
• 30:37
  love to do this, right? Like they have like an address
• 30:40
  where like it saves, right? Like this is your approved
• 30:44
  address and then you keep sending it to that same address
• 30:47
  and then you spend from that address.
• 30:49
  That's that's address re reuse, right?
• 30:52
  So you shouldn't do that every single time you withdraw or you
• 30:56
  get a new transaction, you should be using, you should be
• 30:59
  looking to use a new address and then you are essentially
• 31:04
  protected from this. So anyways, that's today's
• 31:08
  headline story. We have a heck of a show for you
• 31:11
  guys. I think we have Matt Hill
• 31:13
  joining us. Matt Hill is the founder of
• 31:16
  Start Nine. They make, we have the link in
• 31:18
  the video description if you guys want to check it out.
• 31:21
  They make some of the best Bitcoin nodes in the business.
• 31:24
  I personally write, run the Start 9 pure.
• 31:26
  It's like it's fantastic. It's like a mini computer.
• 31:29
  It's constantly running the Bitcoin software.
• 31:32
  I can connect to it anywhere around the world.
• 31:34
  I, I, I run my node through Tor and it like it's, it's so bad
• 31:39
  ass. And then it has all these other
• 31:41
  really cool apps and stuff like that.
• 31:43
  Well, they're releasing a new product and it's very exciting.
• 31:47
  We're going to be talking about that today if Matt's able to
• 31:50
  join the show. And then also we're going to be
• 31:52
  talking about we called this Opti and I called this, we
• 31:57
  called this so hard, right? And it's actually a good thing I
• 32:01
  told you guys that this Bitcoin cycle, in particular the bear
• 32:06
  market signs were going to be the capitulation of these giant
• 32:11
  public companies, right? So we had some major
• 32:15
  announcements from the second largest Bitcoin treasury holder.
• 32:21
  They sold a lot of Bitcoin. They had another announcement
• 32:25
  for another treasury company. They, they sold some Bitcoin as
• 32:28
  well. And I told you guys back in
• 32:33
  October when I called the top and Opti and Walker were giving
• 32:37
  me so much shit for it. I told you guys that part of the
• 32:43
  of the capitulation signs that you're going to see this cycle
• 32:47
  is you're going to see these companies start to announce that
• 32:50
  they're selling Bitcoin at a loss.
• 32:53
  And that is exactly what is happening.
• 32:56
  So this is a very good sign in terms of the progress that we've
• 33:03
  made in this particular bear market.
• 33:06
  We want this to happen, ladies and gentlemen.
• 33:10
  The faster this happens, the faster we reach bottom, the
• 33:14
  faster we reach bottom, then we could start picking back up
• 33:17
  again, right? So we want these types of
• 33:20
  capitulations, We want this this is a good thing.
• 33:23
  This is this is nature healing itself.
• 33:26
  You also have giant public minors that are essentially
• 33:32
  they're announcing that they're pivoting entire, they're not
• 33:34
  even mining Bitcoin anymore. They're they're pivoting
• 33:37
  entirely to AI. So we're going to be talking
• 33:40
  about that as well. So anyways, guys, it's going to
• 33:43
  be a great show. If you guys are enjoying the
• 33:45
  show so far, make sure to smash that like button.
• 33:48
  We're going to be right back after the break.
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  All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Simply Bitcoin
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  Live. Before we move on, I do want to
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  give a shout out to our partner, Stamp Seed.
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  salt water. And it survived.
• 36:43
  Like the data survived, right? So yeah, don't write down your
• 36:47
  seed words on paper. Don't be that guy.
• 36:49
  Anyways, at the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is
• 36:53
  $67,980. That's per dollar 1471 block
• 36:58
  height 943,088. Realize monetary inflation .83%
• 37:04
  Market cap 1.36 trillion Bitcoin versus global market cap 4.54%
• 37:10
  Percentage issued 94. 4 point 95.28% declined from all time
• 37:15
  high. We're sitting at -46.1%.
• 37:19
  The grand scheme of things. We are just getting the party
• 37:22
  started. I remember when Opti and I were
• 37:26
  were euphoric. It's so obvious in hindsight.
• 37:30
  The Bitcoin versus gold market cap was at 10%, ladies and
• 37:33
  gentlemen, 10%. If Bitcoin were to reach the
• 37:36
  market cap of gold today, that would be at 1.5, roughly $1.5
• 37:41
  million per coin. I think that if Bitcoin doesn't
• 37:45
  reach the market cap of gold, it's a failure.
• 37:48
  That's that's the lowest bar, that's the lowest bar, that's
• 37:52
  the lowest bar. Talk about the, the total
• 37:54
  addressable market of 400 trillion.
• 37:57
  What's gold, 2530 trillion, something like that.
• 38:01
  I mean, we're not asking for much.
• 38:03
  We're not asking for much. I think bitcoins $100 trillion
• 38:08
  asset minimum, right, which is more than A50X from here, more
• 38:13
  than A50X. That sounds fantastic, doesn't
• 38:16
  it? You just need patience.
• 38:17
  You just need patience. You need to go to, you need to
• 38:19
  go outside. Bear market years you need to go
• 38:22
  outside. I'm tired, boss.
• 38:23
  You need to go outside. Anyways, let's go through some
• 38:28
  of the news today. Quite a little bit depressing,
• 38:32
  but let's talk about this. Let's check out this Yahoo
• 38:35
  Finance article. Bitcoin on the brink of its
• 38:38
  longest losing streak on record. I told you guys we're making
• 38:42
  history. Bitcoin hovered around 67,000 on
• 38:46
  Tuesday, on the brink of either snapping A5 month losing streak
• 38:50
  or extending losses for the longest period in the tokens
• 38:54
  history. Quote Bitcoin has never recorded
• 38:57
  6 consecutive monthly declines in its 17 year history.
• 39:02
  After declining for five straight months from October to
• 39:06
  February, Bitcoin was trading within 1% of February's $67,000
• 39:12
  closing price. Bitcoin has shown more
• 39:15
  resilience than equities, as the S&P 500 has declined roughly 6%
• 39:20
  over the past month, while gold has dropped about 10%.
• 39:25
  Although the token seemed overdue for a relief rally,
• 39:28
  Quote blockchain data still indicates bearish flows, which
• 39:32
  increases our confidence that BTC retest the 60K low.
• 39:37
  Quote, March's resilience looks like a textbook relief rally
• 39:41
  within a broader crypto winter. So yeah, this is different.
• 39:48
  This is different, ladies and gentlemen.
• 39:49
  I told you guys it was different.
• 39:51
  I told you guys it was different.
• 39:53
  So let's talk. Didn't you say it wasn't
• 39:54
  different? I I think I was the one saying
• 39:57
  it was different. I was wrong.
• 39:58
  I was wrong at the time, but I think it's different.
• 40:01
  It's different in the sense that like, I think so like this is
• 40:04
  what I, this is my, my, my base case.
• 40:06
  So I think essentially like the price action is essentially the
• 40:11
  same. It's just extended.
• 40:13
  That's all it is, right? And that this goes back to the
• 40:16
  whole like power law thesis, right?
• 40:18
  Which is like basically it takes twice the amount of time for
• 40:22
  Bitcoin to double every time it double s, right?
• 40:27
  So like basically like everything's elongated.
• 40:31
  That's why, you know, 10 years ago when me and Opti got into
• 40:35
  the space, you'd see like 50% volatility in a day.
• 40:38
  You don't kind of see that anymore, right?
• 40:41
  It's a little bit muted, but that doesn't mean that you're
• 40:43
  not going to see that 50% volatility.
• 40:46
  It's just 50% volatility over a period of time rather than just
• 40:50
  in one day, right? And I think you're going to
• 40:53
  start to see the same kind of on the upside as well, right?
• 40:58
  So anyways, is Matt joining us today?
• 41:02
  Let me see. I just messaged him.
• 41:07
  Let's hope so. If not, I I can.
• 41:10
  I could whip something up. We could whip something up.
• 41:13
  Dude, it's all good. It's Monday.
• 41:14
  It's Tuesday. Doc, it's Monday.
• 41:16
  It's really Monday. It is it.
• 41:17
  Does it feels like a Monday? It feels like a Monday.
• 41:19
  All right, so let's talk about the other things.
• 41:23
  And again, all this is positive, ladies and gentlemen, like from
• 41:26
  a historical perspective, the best time to buy Bitcoin are
• 41:31
  during these times. These times, you know, where
• 41:35
  it's essentially it's all quiet on the rest Western Front.
• 41:39
  People feel demoralized. We they feel bored.
• 41:42
  I mean, this is me and Opti included, right?
• 41:44
  Like, we talk about Bitcoin every single day.
• 41:47
  We didn't realize how good we had it during those euphoric
• 41:50
  times, bro. We didn't realize how good we
• 41:52
  had it during the Biden administration.
• 41:55
  A part of part of me wishes Cackle Cackle and Kamala got
• 41:59
  elected, bro, because at least we'd have something to talk
• 42:02
  about from the gulags, you know? Yeah, like when they when they
• 42:05
  were fighting us, Like when they.
• 42:06
  Were fighting us like every day. We're like all right guys,
• 42:09
  breaking news, you know now like so much winning, bro.
• 42:14
  Golden Era. So much winning and win World
• 42:17
  War. Three around the corner, baby.
• 42:20
  Anyways. But at least, you know, at least
• 42:22
  we have a pro Bitcoin president anyways.
• 42:27
  Is that a hint of sarcasm? Dude, I mean, look, I'm super
• 42:31
  happy with everything Trump has done for the industry.
• 42:34
  I'm super happy with everything. The only thing I'm kind of
• 42:38
  bummed about is the one promise that I think was the most
• 42:42
  important promise in Nashville, which is like, I'm going to take
• 42:48
  your Bitcoin to the moon, dude. When he was inaugurated, Bitcoin
• 42:52
  was at 109,000. It's at 67,000 today, almost two
• 42:58
  years into his presidency. Like all the other stuff,
• 43:02
  regulatory clarity, whatever, not even the clarity thing, I'm
• 43:05
  not even going to get into that. But like, you know, the, the
• 43:08
  regulatory environment, etcetera, etcetera.
• 43:12
  Like you could say all that's fine, that's great.
• 43:16
  Maybe it's building a foundation.
• 43:18
  Maybe I lack patience, but I was promised that Bitcoin was going
• 43:26
  to go to the moon and that we were going to have fun with our
• 43:28
  bitcoins. That's what I was promised.
• 43:31
  I'm not having fun with my bitcoins right now, bro.
• 43:34
  I'm not. I'm not.
• 43:38
  I'm feeling. I'm tired.
• 43:39
  I'm. I'm feeling pain and and and and
• 43:42
  I'm tired as well. I'm just tired anyways, so
• 43:46
  another good sign and this was quite interesting.
• 43:51
  So Mara sells 1 billion in Bitcoin at a loss to pay down
• 43:55
  debt as hedge fund CIO warns. Just the beginning.
• 43:59
  Holy shit. Mara Holdings sold 15,133
• 44:04
  Bitcoin between March 4th and March 25th for approximately
• 44:07
  $1.1 billion, using the proceeds to repurchase roughly 1 billion
• 44:12
  dollars of its convertible notes due in 20-30 and 2031.
• 44:16
  The sale slash Mara's holdings by about 28%.
• 44:21
  The kicker? Mara disclosed separately that
• 44:24
  it bought 4267 BTC in 2025 at an average price of around 111,000,
• 44:31
  roughly 45,000 above where the token trades today.
• 44:35
  The CIO of hedge fund Lurker Capital row on X dot Mara is now
• 44:41
  a distressed seller, calling this just the beginning of a
• 44:45
  major unwind across the sector. Ladies and gentlemen, this is
• 44:52
  what we have been waiting for. This is what capitulations look
• 44:57
  like. This is what they look like.
• 45:00
  They've always looked like this. We predicted this was going to
• 45:03
  happen. I told you guys in October of
• 45:05
  2025, I said this cycle ends when you see these giant
• 45:10
  companies start to sell Bitcoin at a loss.
• 45:13
  I told you guys, I've been telling you guys this for months
• 45:17
  and it seems like it's starting to happen now.
• 45:20
  What's crazy with this cell is that now Mara isn't the second
• 45:25
  largest Bitcoin treasury company.
• 45:29
  I don't even know I I wouldn't even consider it a treasury
• 45:31
  company, but. I mean, they, they had the
• 45:32
  second biggest. Treasure, the second largest
• 45:34
  publicly traded company with a Bitcoin, with Bitcoin now
• 45:38
  they're third. Second place now is 21, which is
• 45:43
  Jack Mahler's and Tether and Softbank's company.
• 45:47
  So anyways, Thompson's thesis centers on a paradox.
• 45:51
  Bitcoin mining economics are in crisis and the only way they
• 45:55
  heal is through a decline in hash rate which is being driven
• 45:59
  by companies like Core Scientific, Terra Wolf Cyber
• 46:03
  Mining and Iron pivoting away from mining.
• 46:07
  The hash rate decline is healthy for network long term, but the
• 46:11
  near term problem is that public miners hold close to 80,000 BTC
• 46:17
  on their balance sheets. As they become AI companies they
• 46:20
  both need capital to fund the build out and have no reason to
• 46:24
  hold Bitcoin anymore. On chain data from crypto quant
• 46:28
  backs him up. The miners miners position index
• 46:32
  has climbed to A7 day high, signaling A broader uptick in
• 46:37
  minor outflows beyond just merit.
• 46:40
  BTC dropped below 70K on the news.
• 46:43
  The average all in cost of mining a single BTC currently
• 46:47
  sits at 78, $1000. Terra Wolf ended 2025 with three
• 46:54
  BTC on its balance sheet. Iron liquidated all mine Bitcoin
• 46:58
  daily. Cypher sold 214 million in BTC
• 47:02
  last year. Mara still holds 38,689 BTC
• 47:07
  after the sale, making it the largest remaining minor treasury
• 47:12
  and a potential source of further supply pressure on
• 47:15
  polymarket traders. Price a 51% chance Bitcoin dips
• 47:19
  to 45,000 bring it on baby 27% chance it hits 35,000 and only
• 47:26
  an 18% chance it regains 120,000 and this year so ladies and
• 47:32
  gentlemen, I told you guys we're about I would say if you were to
• 47:36
  ask me 30 to 40% through the bear what you need to focus on
• 47:41
  these next six to seven months is survive that's it you got to
• 47:46
  survive. You got to take us as much
• 47:48
  capital as you can. You got to buy the dip and you
• 47:51
  got to survive. That's all.
• 47:52
  That's all you got to do, right? But what I will tell you is
• 47:56
  this, which is quite interesting, ultimately, this is
• 48:02
  very, very good for the industry.
• 48:07
  The strongest miners are going to continue mining Bitcoin.
• 48:12
  They're going to continue and, and these miners essentially
• 48:17
  saying, hey, we're pivoting, we're getting out of the Bitcoin
• 48:20
  mining space completely, actually creates an opportunity
• 48:25
  for the public miners that continue to weather the storm
• 48:29
  and to mine Bitcoin. This is nature healing itself.
• 48:32
  The most efficient miners will survive.
• 48:36
  The less efficient miners are going to try to pivot, they're
• 48:40
  going to try to sell Bitcoin. And this just tells me that they
• 48:42
  were over leverage. This that's what it tells me
• 48:45
  that they, you know, that they put themselves in a position
• 48:48
  where, you know, perhaps, you know, they weren't essentially
• 48:52
  making, you know, the the best decisions because if they were,
• 48:58
  then they wouldn't have to, you know, sell their bags
• 49:01
  essentially. So it's not only those
• 49:04
  companies, right Bit farms conference BITF to rebrand as
• 49:10
  keel infrastructure pivoting from Bitcoin mining to AI data
• 49:15
  centers. This news dropped today, another
• 49:18
  publicly traded Bitcoin miner. So I'm, I'm calling it right
• 49:21
  now, the miners that survive and they stick around to Bitcoin,
• 49:28
  they are going to be very well positioned when the price of
• 49:32
  Bitcoin recovers. I remember in my, in my career
• 49:35
  in this industry, one of the biggest regrets that I've had is
• 49:42
  I got into the industry through Bitcoin mining and I capitulated
• 49:47
  in 2018. I said that's I, I've had
• 49:50
  enough. I can't take this anymore.
• 49:52
  My, my business is losing money. This isn't a good idea In my, my
• 49:57
  mining business is still my Twitter handle.
• 50:00
  It's, it was Bitvault. That was the name, right?
• 50:03
  And I said if I kept going in 2018 and 2019-2020, I would have
• 50:09
  made a fortune. I'd probably have a mining
• 50:11
  company today, not a media company, right?
• 50:14
  So, you know, again, the ones that survive are the ones that
• 50:19
  are going to thrive when the price starts to pick up again.
• 50:23
  That's my, that's my opinion. And this is also an opportunity
• 50:27
  cause a lot of this hash rates going to go away for other
• 50:30
  miners to come in and, you know, be a bigger percentage of the
• 50:36
  overall hash rate, which means bigger, more rewards for them.
• 50:40
  So last but not least, before we move on, no, actually let's have
• 50:45
  a quick commercial break and then we will talk about this.
• 50:48
  We're going to be right back in just a SEC.
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  All right, ladies and gentlemen, before we get into the rest of
• 53:33
  the story today. Again, guys, this is good.
• 53:37
  This is very good. All of this is it's wonderful
• 53:40
  news. This all indicates capitulation.
• 53:44
  Capitulation is good. That means that we are we're on
• 53:49
  the way to the bottom right when you have to use that articles
• 53:54
  own quotes, distressed sellers, meaning sellers that they
• 53:58
  normally wouldn't want to they wouldn't want to sell in these
• 54:01
  in these situations, but they have to sell because of the
• 54:04
  economics of their business that that's a good thing.
• 54:08
  That's a good thing. That means we're near the
• 54:09
  bottom. So anyhow, or at least we're
• 54:15
  starting to go into the process of finding a bottom, which is
• 54:21
  very good to hear 'cause we're in March.
• 54:23
  Oh man, imagine if this happened later.
• 54:25
  It would just extend the pain, right?
• 54:28
  So this is good. This is very good.
• 54:30
  And from a an opportunity, opportunity, opportunity
• 54:38
  opportunistic, I don't even know what what.
• 54:40
  What? I don't know what you're trying
• 54:41
  to say. A great opportunity.
• 54:45
  Like, I don't know, whatever I did.
• 54:46
  Anyhow, listen from a risk adjusted return, I'll phrase it
• 54:52
  like this much better. This year is the best year
• 54:59
  historically speaking from buying Bitcoin right now after
• 55:06
  it's 45 per, even if it goes lower, like let's say it goes
• 55:09
  from 67, it goes down to 45. Let's say it does that right.
• 55:16
  Actually, it can get worse. It can totally get worse, 100%.
• 55:19
  Yeah. I've been saying, guys, have you
• 55:21
  not been tuning into this show Opti's been making?
• 55:23
  Now Opti's starting to believe because he's not pushing back so
• 55:26
  hard. I'm hedging my bets.
• 55:30
  Opti's not pushing back so hard. I, it's funny because I, I, I,
• 55:34
  you know, I had the honor of being invited on Walker's show
• 55:38
  on, on, on Roxham. And, and first thing I started
• 55:41
  with, I was like, bro, I told you.
• 55:42
  So look, this is, this is part of the healing process, right?
• 55:51
  This is all part of the healing process.
• 55:52
  Like the hash rate going down, like companies pivoting away,
• 55:58
  companies essentially selling Bitcoin.
• 56:03
  This is what bottoms look like. And we haven't had a full
• 56:06
  capitulation of that yet. It happens every cycle, by the
• 56:09
  way. Every cycle there's one major
• 56:13
  effing blow up. It's like huge.
• 56:16
  We don't know what that is yet. We have no idea what that is
• 56:19
  yet. So we'll wait and see.
• 56:23
  We'll wait and see what happens anyways, So I'm going to keep
• 56:26
  going with more kind of like news of just capitulation again.
• 56:34
  Same day that Bit Farms announces that they are pivoting
• 56:41
  away from Bitcoin mining to AI data centers.
• 56:44
  Same day that happens, Nakamoto, again, one of the largest one of
• 56:51
  the larger treasury companies, sells roughly 5% of its Bitcoin
• 56:55
  holdings, offloading 284 Bitcoin goes on to say.
• 57:04
  Nakamoto Holdings said it's sold about 284 BTC for $20 million in
• 57:09
  March, marking a rare reduction in its holdings as its as it as
• 57:15
  it pivots towards a Bitcoin treasury strategy.
• 57:19
  The proceeds will be used to support working capital and fund
• 57:23
  operations following its acquisitions of BTC Inc and
• 57:27
  UTXO, two businesses central to its transition into a Bitcoin
• 57:32
  focus platform, the company said in its full year earnings
• 57:35
  filings. The pump.
• 57:37
  The company went public in May by merging with Kindly MDA
• 57:42
  healthcare provider and raised $710 million to to pursue the
• 57:47
  treasury strategy. The March sale represents some
• 57:51
  5% of the company's Bitcoin holdings and took place despite
• 57:55
  its stated intention to continue accumulating the asset.
• 57:59
  Based on the disclosure, the average sale price was around
• 58:03
  770 thousand 400 and 2020 four $70,422 per coin.
• 58:09
  The move highlights growing liquidity pressures.
• 58:13
  Nakamoto has an 8% two $110 million USDT loan from Kraken
• 58:19
  secured by a majority of its Bitcoin, limiting financial
• 58:23
  flexibility and increasing the potential need for further asset
• 58:28
  sales to meet the interest payments.
• 58:31
  According to the K the the 10K filing, the company remains
• 58:36
  unprofitable, reporting a pre tax loss of $52 million for the
• 58:41
  year ended in December 31st, wider than the $3.6 million loss
• 58:47
  the previous year. The drop was driven primarily by
• 58:50
  a $166 million slump in the value of its digital assets due
• 58:56
  to a late 2025 Bitcoin price decline.
• 58:59
  The shares have fallen 99% from their all time high in May.
• 59:08
  So a couple things to say. And this isn't just this isn't
• 59:15
  just this isn't just Nakamoto. I, I, I had the pleasure of
• 59:22
  being able to interview Jack Maulers at the Plan B Forum in
• 59:29
  El Salvador. If you guys want to check out
• 59:31
  the interview, it's quite interesting.
• 59:33
  First time I ever had, I ever got to interview Jack.
• 59:37
  It's actually on Rumble right now.
• 59:38
  It's a Rumble exclusive. And essentially these treasury
• 59:46
  companies are realizing that they need to become businesses,
• 59:53
  right? Just because you hold Bitcoin
• 59:59
  doesn't mean you're a business. And I think that there was a
• 1:00:03
  time last year which we famously memes and called the paper
• 1:00:08
  Bitcoin Summer. We said that no, what was
• 1:00:16
  happening, it doesn't matter what we said, but what was
• 1:00:18
  happening was essentially these treasury companies.
• 1:00:22
  There was like a mania that was happening.
• 1:00:24
  So essentially like like they all like 10203040X in a very
• 1:00:31
  short period amount of time, right?
• 1:00:33
  Like Metaplanet and Nakamoto and they would even go up and down
• 1:00:39
  based on use. Like Nakamoto hired like a like
• 1:00:45
  a very well known salesman in the Bitcoin in the Bitcoin space
• 1:00:48
  and the stock dropped jumped like 40%, right.
• 1:00:53
  But that mania went away, right. And these treasury companies
• 1:00:59
  like if you think about it, what is the business model, right?
• 1:01:06
  I understand strategy, right. Strategy I think sticks out from
• 1:01:11
  the rest. First, it has first mover
• 1:01:14
  advantage. Second, it has an underlying,
• 1:01:19
  has an underlying business behind it, even though it's not
• 1:01:23
  quite apparent strategy is a software company, right?
• 1:01:28
  They sell software, so there is an underlying business behind
• 1:01:33
  it. Do the underlying businesses
• 1:01:38
  behind a lot of these other treasury companies justify the
• 1:01:43
  valuations that they have? Because ultimately, right,
• 1:01:47
  you're buying these treasury companies to get levered,
• 1:01:52
  levered exposure to Bitcoin, essentially.
• 1:01:55
  But you're paying a fee for that, right?
• 1:01:57
  You are paying for management. You are paying for people's
• 1:02:01
  salaries. Why not just buy Bitcoin, right?
• 1:02:06
  So the reason I brought up Jack Mahler's conversation is quite
• 1:02:10
  enlightening to me. He was coming to the conclusion
• 1:02:13
  that like, hey, listen, like ultimately we kind of have to
• 1:02:18
  pivot our strategy. So that 21 is a cash flow
• 1:02:24
  producing business, right? So they have the business
• 1:02:28
  produces cash flow and they use that cash flow to buy Bitcoin,
• 1:02:32
  right? I think Nakamoto is going
• 1:02:37
  through this very something very, very similar with the
• 1:02:40
  acquisition of BTC Inc BTC Inc is what owns Bitcoin Magazine is
• 1:02:44
  what owns the Bitcoin conference.
• 1:02:47
  Of course, 21 is backed by Tether and soft banks like
• 1:02:52
  enormous investors. I think the question on
• 1:02:56
  everybody's mind, and I think this is where you need to ask
• 1:02:59
  yourself as an investor if the risk is worth it for you is do
• 1:03:06
  you believe that they can actually successfully pull off
• 1:03:09
  these pivots, right? Because if you do, then you're
• 1:03:13
  getting a 99% discount, right? So I think that's the question
• 1:03:19
  on everybody's minds right now. You know, my, my take on this is
• 1:03:31
  I think that if they can figure out because the, the, the, the
• 1:03:37
  issue guys here is, is the valuations, right?
• 1:03:39
  Like if if these treasury companies had revenue behind
• 1:03:48
  them that isn't just tied to the price appreciation of Bitcoin,
• 1:03:55
  you could make an argument that the that the valuations are
• 1:04:00
  justified. I think what the market is
• 1:04:02
  signaling is that they don't have confidence on a Bitcoin
• 1:04:08
  only type of play. So like they don't have
• 1:04:11
  confidence in treasury companies just holding Bitcoin, taking on
• 1:04:18
  more debt to buy more Bitcoin. It seems like right now that
• 1:04:25
  that's not to say I'm not saying this can't change when the price
• 1:04:29
  of Bitcoin turns around, right? I'm not saying that I don't know
• 1:04:34
  to be honest. But what the market is signaling
• 1:04:39
  right now is that like it it it needs to see a cash flowing
• 1:04:43
  business Now if the price of Bitcoin appreciate starts to
• 1:04:48
  appreciate again and we start to head into the 250 K, 300 K400
• 1:04:53
  K500K region, which I think we should easily see in the next,
• 1:04:57
  you know, four to five years. Like, are you telling me that
• 1:05:05
  these companies that are holding 10s of thousands of Bitcoin,
• 1:05:08
  you're telling me that their stocks aren't going to go up?
• 1:05:12
  I think they will, right? It just doesn't make sense.
• 1:05:18
  Like I, I don't see how people wouldn't get caught up in the
• 1:05:20
  mania. And then that 99% discount, you
• 1:05:23
  look like a, you look like a genius, bro.
• 1:05:27
  Don't they have like a? Isn't there like a like a cut
• 1:05:29
  off date right? Yeah, I forget what the date is
• 1:05:33
  at this point, but it was, I thought it was like 6 weeks.
• 1:05:38
  So it's coming to, it's coming, it's coming close.
• 1:05:43
  The, the, the time, the clock is ticking here.
• 1:05:46
  So we'll see what happens. I want to I want to read some of
• 1:05:50
  the. I want to read some of the the
• 1:05:52
  chat so ultra dip says I don't know man, Strive is extremely
• 1:05:56
  capable and has a damn good leadership, but Bitcoin isn't
• 1:05:59
  their only angle. This is what I'm this is what
• 1:06:01
  I'm trying to tell you right and by the way, I love the the
• 1:06:04
  strive CEO. He's the man I got to interview
• 1:06:07
  him at the big Bitcoin 2025. I I like Bailey too.
• 1:06:11
  I love the Bitcoin conference. I like Mahler's also like strike
• 1:06:15
  is fantastic. So we have another one.
• 1:06:22
  Investors paid a 40X premium on NACA so that the executive team
• 1:06:27
  could have fat salaries and travel on private jets, all
• 1:06:30
  while the stock tank nearly all of its value.
• 1:06:33
  MSTR will be the sole survivor. I mean, I, I can't comment.
• 1:06:38
  I don't know. I don't know.
• 1:06:39
  I don't know. I, I, I guys, I'm just a
• 1:06:41
  bitcoiner. Just buy Bitcoin.
• 1:06:44
  If I had money, I would buy Bitcoin and and put it in self
• 1:06:47
  custody. So I'm not the, I'm not, I'm not
• 1:06:51
  the person to talk to you about, you know.
• 1:06:53
  No, but can can we, can we not necessarily just talk about the,
• 1:06:57
  the Bitcoin treasury companies in general, but like what we've
• 1:07:00
  been saying, I, I want to talk about the capitulation.
• 1:07:03
  Yeah, well, wait, I I want to check out these comments.
• 1:07:06
  Think those zombie treasury companies are going to bring the
• 1:07:10
  new dip? I got smoked buying MSTR last
• 1:07:14
  summer a little. Did I know the entire system was
• 1:07:17
  attacking it? I think that's everything.
• 1:07:24
  I think that's all the comments. OK.
• 1:07:28
  My question for you, Nico, is as we've been saying, usually to
• 1:07:35
  mark the end of a bear market, we see a final capitulation
• 1:07:39
  moment, right? We see a lot of Bitcoin being
• 1:07:41
  sold by some of the big, you know, we, we always joke about
• 1:07:44
  like there's always a Bitcoin sacrifice at the very end of a
• 1:07:48
  bear market. Now at this point, we've seen I,
• 1:07:53
  I can't even count how many public Bitcoin mining companies
• 1:07:56
  pivot to AI. They've sold, you know, 10s of
• 1:07:59
  thousands of coins. We've obviously saw the OG sell
• 1:08:02
  a lot of coins around 100K for the last, you know what, 6
• 1:08:05
  months, nine months. Now we're getting to the point
• 1:08:09
  where I don't know if this is the end per SE of the bear
• 1:08:12
  market, but we are starting to see signs of what historically
• 1:08:16
  marks the end. So the question I have for you,
• 1:08:18
  Nico, is like what would be a final capitulation these
• 1:08:25
  companies selling all of their Bitcoin or does just them
• 1:08:28
  selling a portion of their Bitcoin count as a final
• 1:08:30
  capitulation in your mind? I'm going to answer that
• 1:08:33
  question right after the break. I want to give a shout out to
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• 1:09:19
  All right, everybody, it was smooth.
• 1:09:22
  It was silky smooth. So OK, here's my take.
• 1:09:34
  Here's my take. Sorry if you guys heard that
• 1:09:36
  call my my silencer. You're turned off.
• 1:09:40
  Yeah, my do not disturb got turned off.
• 1:09:43
  Chad is savage man, like people. Dude, that's what they do.
• 1:09:51
  Yeah, look at this comment from Jake Fever.
• 1:09:53
  Buy Naka options. Own Bitcoin.
• 1:09:55
  Naka calls are cheap with huge upside.
• 1:09:59
  See like it's it's so divide like I can't I just can't give
• 1:10:03
  you guys a like a like a good opinion on this because I'm just
• 1:10:06
  not a stock person. If they're rehypothecating, they
• 1:10:14
  could absolutely. That's that's about Coinbase.
• 1:10:16
  That's about Coinbase. OK, numb NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM.
• 1:10:21
  What is the final capitulation going to look like?
• 1:10:25
  Is it 100% of balance sheets getting liquidated or does a
• 1:10:30
  2050% sell off of their holdings?
• 1:10:33
  Would that count as a final capitulation moment?
• 1:10:36
  I think, I think one of these big companies are are just going
• 1:10:40
  to blow up. I think that's what's going to
• 1:10:42
  happen. Bitcoin Treasury Company.
• 1:10:44
  Yep, completely liquidated. I think one that would be
• 1:10:48
  prudent, one of them it it's it's literally it's going to be
• 1:10:50
  could. It be a small one.
• 1:10:53
  No, because that wouldn't just Historically speaking, at the
• 1:10:56
  end of every bear market there is a giant disaster that
• 1:11:01
  happened. So the bear market's not over
• 1:11:03
  until I'm decompiled, bro. My my my 58 SAT's will not
• 1:11:09
  affect the market. OK, no.
• 1:11:12
  No, no. So like look like if you're any
• 1:11:15
  Bitcoin company in the bear market right now, like, you
• 1:11:18
  know, your job is to survive. But the the I think what's going
• 1:11:25
  to happen, what's going to mark the bottom is some type of
• 1:11:30
  capitulation event from one of these companies that got over
• 1:11:36
  levered a little bit. And I think you might find
• 1:11:41
  themselves in a situation where if Bitcoin falls another 50%,
• 1:11:45
  which it totally could, you know, they might get margin
• 1:11:52
  called on their loans and then it starts this like kind of
• 1:11:54
  cascading effect. That's what I think could
• 1:11:59
  happen. What what about what intra
• 1:12:02
  Belden is that? Yeah, Belden says.
• 1:12:05
  What if it's an ETF that blows up?
• 1:12:07
  That would that would count? No, you're you're specifically
• 1:12:10
  focused on the Bitcoin treasuries.
• 1:12:11
  And ETF, there's no, there's no risk there.
• 1:12:14
  Like they're they're essentially just buying like and it like
• 1:12:18
  BlackRock is like every time. Supposedly this is what they're
• 1:12:22
  doing. We don't actually know because
• 1:12:24
  again, there's no proof of reserves.
• 1:12:27
  There's no like it. They're not just making the the
• 1:12:29
  address public like it's it's in.
• 1:12:32
  Coinbase. Right.
• 1:12:33
  It's in Coinbase custody and you have to trust, you have to trust
• 1:12:36
  Brian Armstrong. And from what I heard,
• 1:12:38
  essentially like he just keeps all the Bitcoin and the Ledger
• 1:12:41
  next to his night stand. But it in all reality an ETF
• 1:12:51
  that I don't think there's, there's exposure like that.
• 1:12:53
  Cause like an ETF essentially what they're doing is like
• 1:12:56
  they're just buying. They're just buying.
• 1:13:00
  They're just buying Bitcoin on behalf of their customers and
• 1:13:04
  they're taking a fee for that. They're not like playing games
• 1:13:07
  and whatever strategy. Hell no.
• 1:13:11
  Sailor's a honey badger, bro. That guy.
• 1:13:13
  Strategy is no way a guy. That guy survived 20 years.
• 1:13:18
  His company was down like. Not literally 90. 9%the.com
• 1:13:22
  bubble like crushed him. The dude remain so honey
• 1:13:26
  strategy is not going anywhere. I, I would be personally, I'm
• 1:13:29
  not a stock guy, but you know, under $100 Bitcoin, I mean under
• 1:13:34
  $100 strategy stock, like dude, like that's a no brainer in my
• 1:13:40
  opinion. And then what he's doing with
• 1:13:43
  STRCSTR. C is crazy.
• 1:13:46
  They're buying like 1000 Bitcoin a day right now.
• 1:13:48
  That's nuts. So effing cool, you know, and
• 1:13:51
  then he's just dropping memes. So I, I don't, I don't foresee
• 1:13:57
  it being, I don't foresee it being strategy.
• 1:14:02
  At all, Not even a it's a non 0. It's a zero chance I'm.
• 1:14:06
  Actually quite bullish on, on MicroStrategy.
• 1:14:11
  So I don't think it's gonna be strategy.
• 1:14:14
  I don't think it's gonna be 21 'cause they, their backers are
• 1:14:19
  very like, are literally, you know, like it's Tether.
• 1:14:24
  They're it's just not gonna happen and it and again, huge
• 1:14:30
  fan of leadership and all that. Nakamoto, it's very difficult
• 1:14:34
  for me seeing that just because of like how much influence they
• 1:14:39
  have in the space. Like I mean, they run the
• 1:14:41
  Bitcoin conference. Huge fan of that.
• 1:14:44
  You know, UTXO management, they've made some great
• 1:14:47
  investments in metaplanet and stuff like that.
• 1:14:52
  So like, I don't know, I don't, I don't foresee them being one
• 1:14:58
  of them, even though like it doesn't look too good from like
• 1:15:05
  a price action perspective, but I don't foresee them being one
• 1:15:07
  of them. But again, I, I, I think that
• 1:15:10
  the capitulation event this cycle is going to be some type
• 1:15:13
  of treasury company like blowing up.
• 1:15:19
  That's what I think. I think it's going to be a
• 1:15:22
  leverage a a levered 1, some type of levered event unravels
• 1:15:28
  like a company that borrowed money to buy Bitcoin and they
• 1:15:32
  bought at like 110 or 100,000. When Bitcoin goes to 30,000 and
• 1:15:37
  they're on the hook for those payments, that will like set off
• 1:15:41
  a domino effect. That's what I think, aw.
• 1:15:45
  Man, that's why I'm so tired of winning.
• 1:15:47
  I can't wait to win more. That's what I think is going to
• 1:15:49
  happen. That's what I think is going to
• 1:15:55
  happen. Coinbase is custody for all of
• 1:15:59
  them. Coinbase and other exchanges
• 1:16:00
  will not run out of Bitcoin. There's always buyers and
• 1:16:02
  sellers training each other. It's going to be chain link.
• 1:16:07
  In 10 years, they will be. What?
• 1:16:11
  You're on the, you're on the wrong.
• 1:16:12
  Yeah, hold on. I.
• 1:16:13
  Have not heard that name in so long.
• 1:16:16
  You know they were still. I didn't know me either.
• 1:16:19
  But Jake Fever says if MSTR gets to 100, no one shells by STR
• 1:16:24
  they should. Just no one should buy STR, they
• 1:16:26
  should just buy Ms. Well, I mean they're hitting different
• 1:16:28
  markets. So a different, yeah, it's
• 1:16:30
  different markets, different. It's different pools of capital.
• 1:16:32
  Do you want fixed income? Do you want the upside of buying
• 1:16:35
  it like a stock? Like MicroStrategy?
• 1:16:39
  Past history. Dude chat guys, Nico just found
• 1:16:42
  the chat and he's. Having a lot of fun on the.
• 1:16:44
  Chat today. Let's check out Rumble.
• 1:16:47
  Let's see how how how my ass is getting kicked on Rumble because
• 1:16:51
  35 bit 35 KBTC. Now you're talking shit, Nico.
• 1:16:56
  Here's the thing, Mr. Roboto. The fact that you say that is
• 1:17:02
  not good, right? Like it's not good.
• 1:17:06
  Yeah. Wait, wait, wait.
• 1:17:07
  Can we, can we, can we do that one thought experiment the other
• 1:17:09
  day we were sitting in the in the in the studio.
• 1:17:12
  We had a couple people over. It was like, I don't know, six
• 1:17:15
  or something of us and. And OK, so let me give a little
• 1:17:19
  bit. Of context.
• 1:17:19
  This one's funny, we. Had like like an off.
• 1:17:21
  We had like an off site for for simply and we had like like 5 or
• 1:17:25
  6 simply team members here in the studio and we brought in
• 1:17:30
  like a major kind of mainstream political commentator.
• 1:17:34
  Who was also a bitcoiner. He has a huge.
• 1:17:36
  Channel too and like obviously if you have 3 podcasters in A
• 1:17:43
  room. It turns into a podcast.
• 1:17:45
  And it condensed like in a in a small.
• 1:17:47
  And it's not the studio isn't small, but like it's it's it's.
• 1:17:50
  It's a room. It's.
• 1:17:51
  It's homey for like 6 people. You know, you're going to get
• 1:17:55
  into some like crazy type of conversations, right?
• 1:17:59
  And I remember we were obviously talking about price and five out
• 1:18:08
  of the six people were like, there's absolutely no way that
• 1:18:14
  Bitcoin's going to go under 40K. And when I heard that, I'm like,
• 1:18:21
  that's not good. And and this is where I think I
• 1:18:24
  think this is where I started to re evaluate my position because
• 1:18:28
  you guys know me. It's like when I'm on the side
• 1:18:30
  of the majority, I'm like, damn, I'm probably wrong.
• 1:18:33
  And Nico's like, all right, everyone raise your hand in the
• 1:18:36
  room that thinks that we have already bought them and we're
• 1:18:39
  like making arguments and literally all of us raise your
• 1:18:41
  hand and Nico's the only one. Well, it's Nico and Sophie,
• 1:18:44
  which is just basically Nico squared, the only ones like, no,
• 1:18:47
  we haven't bought them yet. And he's like, see, everyone in
• 1:18:49
  here thinks that we to bottom, which makes me think it's going
• 1:18:53
  to go lower. And I sat there and I'm like,
• 1:18:55
  damn, I might be. On the wrong side of this look
• 1:19:00
  so like it. Again, the fact that you're
• 1:19:05
  telling me that is not a good sign, right?
• 1:19:08
  Like the psychology of capitulation is despair, right?
• 1:19:13
  Like you're literally like, Oh my God, this thing's going to
• 1:19:16
  like 15K, right? Like that, That's how you're
• 1:19:19
  going to feel, right? When this, when you know, when
• 1:19:22
  this, when this, when this starts to, you know, unravel, so
• 1:19:28
  to speak, they're laughing. With me, I don't know if they're
• 1:19:31
  laughing at me or laughing with me, but anyway, let let Nicole
• 1:19:35
  let's all right, he's reading the chat.
• 1:19:37
  Let's only thing I would worry if it was this show.
• 1:19:41
  Is so cooked, Ron. All right, let's let's.
• 1:19:45
  Wrap up today. Let's wrap up all right anyways.
• 1:19:51
  Wait wait, intra ha ha. Damn, I agree with everyone.
• 1:19:55
  What's about to go wrong? That's literally my thought
• 1:19:57
  process. That's what I was thinking.
• 1:19:59
  And I was like, I might be wrong.
• 1:20:00
  I'm I'm, I'm glad. Yeah, let's wrap this up.
• 1:20:03
  So I'm glad. To to just wrap this up and put
• 1:20:06
  a, a nice bow on top Elaine, yay 15K I'm in.
• 1:20:15
  So to like wrap this up and put a nice bowl on top.
• 1:20:18
  Here's the here's the TLDR everyone, y'all are
• 1:20:24
  understanding that we're in a bear market now.
• 1:20:26
  That's a good thing. We have major capitulation
• 1:20:30
  events from major companies pivoting from Bitcoin, pivoting
• 1:20:36
  away from Bitcoin, selling Bitcoin.
• 1:20:40
  Those are all very, very good signs.
• 1:20:44
  All very good signs, ladies and gentlemen, very good signs
• 1:20:47
  'cause that means that the bear market is in full force.
• 1:20:51
  It's happening, it's transpiring, right?
• 1:20:55
  And again, that obviously creates opportunities for you to
• 1:21:00
  for you guys to get discounted prices in Bitcoin.
• 1:21:05
  So you know, also too, I will say that if you guys want to
• 1:21:18
  take out a loan right now, it's like literally one of the best
• 1:21:20
  times historically speaking as well.
• 1:21:25
  So obviously you got to be careful.
• 1:21:28
  Of course, we recommend our our sponsor LED and they're awesome.
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• 1:21:35
  But again, you got to be responsible with this shit
• 1:21:38
  because I've, I've said this like every single time.
• 1:21:41
  You guys don't listen to me. Bitcoin collateralized loans are
• 1:21:47
  super powerful if you use them responsibly.
• 1:21:51
  If you go ape shit and put 60% of your stock into a loan and
• 1:21:57
  then you get margin called, bro, you're being reckless.
• 1:22:01
  But if you're taking 5 or 10% of your stock and you know that the
• 1:22:06
  price could go down 50, sixty, 70% and you could just
• 1:22:09
  collateralize that loan more than you're fine, right?
• 1:22:13
  But if you're being reckless with the loan, like you, you
• 1:22:18
  might potentially get margin called.
• 1:22:19
  But again, if you're taking out a loan when Bitcoin's 60% down,
• 1:22:25
  like you know, you're probably gonna you're probably gonna be
• 1:22:30
  very happy in a couple of years, right?
• 1:22:33
  So anyways, if you guys enjoyed the show, you know what to do
• 1:22:35
  smash the like button, subscribe all of that good stuff.
• 1:22:38
  Thank you guys so much for tuning in to simply Bitcoin
• 1:22:43
  live. What does the rumble say?
• 1:22:44
  Inverse Nikko Inverse Nikko effect happening Sailor has
• 1:22:48
  created. A high yield savings account
• 1:22:50
  supported by you. You exited out of it, man.
• 1:22:53
  What happened? That was an old comment.
• 1:22:56
  It just said inverse Nico. Just said inverse Nico.
• 1:22:58
  Yeah. Yeah, alright.
• 1:23:00
  Well, I've been I've been right so far Chat.
• 1:23:04
  Believe, let the chat believe. I do want to give a shout out to
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  All right everybody, I'll catch you guys on the next one.
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  Take care everybody. Today's episode was brought to
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  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:24:02
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