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Pro Farm Crop Tour Thursday Scouting Reports · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: Let's check-in on the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour. We're now joined by Oliver Sloop on this Thursday. Oliver, thank you for being with us all week and reporting. Can you start with some kind of the fundamentals that came out of Illinois for you as you were listening last night to what all the rest of the folks that were on the routes had to say about the state?
• 0:25
  Oliver Sloup: Well, it it becomes kind of a recurring theme, and it's just underwhelming. And I've had to explain to people, you know, what I mean by underwhelming all week long. It's not that it's it's bad corn or terrible corn. It's really good corn out there. But coming into this week, the expectations were set just so high.
• 0:44
  And, it's just can you meet those expectations? Pro Farmer came out with Illinois at one ninety nine point five seven. That's below last year's two zero four point one four. So, again, underwhelming is the key there. Now the margin for error for pro farmer versus the USDA's final number in Illinois is about four and a half bushel.
• 1:05
  So if you tack that on to what they released last night, you're still looking basically right at last year's yield near two zero four, and that's well below what the USDA has estimated right now, which is two twenty one. So falling short of expectations so far has been the theme, and I think you're starting to maybe see that add a little bit of a tailwind to prices here, in today's trade.
• 1:25
  Todd Gleason: You know, August, by the way, was $2.17 from USDA, so that number, was large kind of like this year. So as you said, it's a big number regardless. It's just not as big as it had been. The good news is there's 8¢ on the marketplace. Because you're a broker, I'm gonna ask you this question about this really quickly.
• 1:47
  Given the size of the crop, the fact that soybeans are unlikely to move, at least in through November unless there's some breakthrough in the trade agreements, with China, and we might have some real issues with storage. Do you think producers should take advantage of making cash sales that would have to go across the scale? I know it's a low price.
• 2:12
  Oliver Sloup: It is it is a low price. I think it probably is, very dependent on each person's, you know, situation. We work with a wide number of clients. Some have done really good at marketing this year. Some have maybe waited for a little bit better price action that just never came.
• 2:28
  So it's you know, it depends on an individual situation. I would say we do get a nice rally like we've seen over the last week and a half. You should probably consider rewarding the market, and and protecting some of that downside. Because if we do end up with decent weather here to round out this year's crop, there's, you know, potential for a retest of the recent lows. The upside, you know, potentially limited unless we do get some sort of trade agreement, which I'm not gonna hold my breath for.
• 2:57
  Todd Gleason: Okay. Now let's turn your attention back to the task at hand, which is taking counts in the state of Iowa. You are South of Dyersville, and to the North and East of Cedar Rapids in Jones County. What have you been finding?
• 3:15
  Oliver Sloup: So far, it's been it's been pretty good corn. I would say, quite a bit better than what we've seen, in Illinois in the prior two days. A little bit more consistency. Here in Iowa, I think, a lot better moisture situation has certainly helped things along, through the first three districts yesterday, and then Pro Farmer came out with about a 200 bushel per acre average. So, again, it was a little bit short of what the expectations are, but still really, really good corn.
• 3:44
  It'll be interesting to see what the what the final numbers for Iowa are tonight and then what Pro Farmer puts out tomorrow afternoon with regards to a national estimate.
• 3:53
  Todd Gleason: You're at the moment traveling through an area that extends through the Southwestern Part of Wisconsin that, generally speaking does a lot of corn on corn acres. I'm wondering if you found anything that wasn't so good today.
• 4:08
  Oliver Sloup: There were a few little hiccups, but, I would say for the most part that the consistency here in Iowa so far has been really key. We did drive past some, some areas on the highway that had obviously been hit by some storms and some hail. But largely speaking, things look, a little bit more consistent than what we saw in the prior few days.
• 4:29
  Todd Gleason: And one last thing, I know you stop every 20 miles, and it's the first cornfield probably on the right or something along those lines after that. When you go in, do you have a set number of paces that you walk into a field?
• 4:42
  Oliver Sloup: Yeah. So we go 35 paces in past the end row, and then we hook the 30 foot rope and count the ears on each side, and then we pull ears five, eight, and 11. So we can stay consistently random, I guess, is the way to put it.
• 4:55
  Todd Gleason: That is a good way to do it. Thank you much, and thank you so much for being with us all week, Oliver.
• 5:00
  Oliver Sloup: Thank you. Take care.
• 5:02
  Todd Gleason: Oliver Sloop is with Blue Line Futures traveling on the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer crop tour. On the western leg, we've been talking to Sherman Newland this week. He now joins us. Hey. Thank you much, Sherman, for being with us, and congratulations on being awarded last night as a master scout.
• 5:21
  I bet that's kind of a big thrill. There can't be too many of you, I suppose.
• 5:26
  Sherman Newlin: Yeah. I don't know how many there are. Yeah. It was it was, sure a surprise, last night, to say the least. You know?
• 5:34
  They usually get them out on Friday night, but, since Chip wasn't gonna be here tonight or, yeah, tonight, they they decided to do it last night.
• 5:42
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. I know. He's a big Iowa State fan, so he had to fly out for that game in in Ireland. But but, you know, that's we we'll we'll forgive him for that.
• 5:55
  That's okay. That's okay. So you have been traveling in the Northwestern Part of Iowa. I think you started today, not very much. And then mostly along I 94 in Minnesota, not actually on 94 or thereabouts, but really close.
• 6:14
  What'd you find today?
• 6:15
  Sherman Newlin: Yeah. We didn't make any stops in Iowa, but we had to get up here in the Southwest Corner of Minnesota. We've been in Nobles County, Murray County, Cottonwood, Watawnwan, and Martin County today. A lot better than what we saw last year, that's for sure. We've had 10 stops in District 7 And 8.
• 6:33
  Our corn truck average is two twelve year over year. That's 29% over last year, which is one sixty four. 19% over 02/2023, which is one seventy seven. SOIC, we have 1,300 pod counts on. That is up 10% from last year and up 15% from 2023.
• 6:56
  Overall, pretty good crop, not a lot of disease, a little bit of rust. Last year they had so much rain in through here that drowned out a lot of areas, but things are progressing pretty well. A lot of the corn's in early dent stage, so overall it's kind of like what we saw in Iowa, a pretty good looking, lush looking crop.
• 7:18
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. So in Iowa, you traveled through the most productive district in the state year in and year out. That's the Central District in the western part of the state. You're also in one of the most productive areas of Minnesota today. When you talked to producer or to your fellow scouts last night about other parts of Iowa, were they as impressed with the crop as you were?
• 7:44
  Sherman Newlin: In spots. I mean, lot of they saw a lot of rust. They really did see a lot of rust. We saw some, you know, we saw a couple of fields that may, you know, end up hurting the yield on those fields, but they had a representative there from BASF and his comment was they didn't know if, you know, some of that corn was going to make it the black layer before it starts shutting down because of the rust. We'll see.
• 8:12
  Still a good crop out there, I mean, in Iowa, but, you know, the disease is kind of surprising how quick it takes over and, you know, how bad it is in some fields and then not not bad, you know, not near as bad in others.
• 8:24
  Todd Gleason: When you think about the whole of what you've seen and what you've scouted in your part of the world near Hudsonville, which would be kind of the Terre Haute area, just for lack of a better place to put it, Indiana. But you're on the Illinois side. What do you think of the crop as a whole? What do suppose?
• 8:42
  Sherman Newlin: As a whole, I mean, it's a good it's a big crop. It's gonna be a big crop now. But I'm beginning to think, you know, we're not probably going to maybe reach the lofty goals of what USDA put out there. I mean, I could see them dropping this corn yield two or three bushel anyway, wouldn't surprise me with the disease and what they found in Northern Illinois in some of the dry areas. But the Western states, I mean, talk about Kansas, you talk about Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, they're going to be quite a bit above average.
• 9:14
  So, I mean, we could come in a little bit below USDA numbers, but overall, it's still going to be a big crop no matter how we cut it.
• 9:22
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. Somebody had asked me on X what the trade was thinking and what you were you guys were working with a couple of days ago. And I said, I really didn't know, but that it was about how good the crop was gonna be in South Dakota, Nebraska, parts of Western Iowa, Minnesota, and how much it would offset anything that's not coming in Ohio and Indiana. I hadn't thought about Illinois coming up short. I'm still not certain.
• 9:51
  I don't know. Do you think Illinois will come up very much short?
• 9:54
  Sherman Newlin: I, you know, I don't know. I did make a stop on my way up to Chicago on Saturday, you know, North Of Gilman a little bit and the corn looked really good. I mean, I didn't see any problems there. Nice, good sized ears. You know, seemed like North Of Champaign.
• 10:07
  Yes, there's some dry areas and I know some other areas have been hurt, you know, from there north. But again, there's going to be some really good corn, you know, in the state of Illinois and soybeans. I mean, our particular farm, I think we're, you know, we're pushing, we're gonna push a record if not beat it for corn. I don't know about beans because the forecast is wind dry and, you know, we still need rain in August to finish these soybeans.
• 10:33
  Todd Gleason: Yeah, there are places in Southern Illinois that just have had way too much rain up front.
• 10:40
  Sherman Newlin: Way too
• 10:40
  Todd Gleason: much. And then really dry. But again, the the acreage numbers are just not big enough to to move the needle really. And I did note that in Illinois the crop scouts, while they found disease and there is southern rust in the northern part of the state, at least to this point, it hadn't blossomed out. And so unlike in Iowa where you heard about it a lot on on x, so much in Illinois.
• 11:06
  Sherman Newlin: Just Yeah.
• 11:07
  Todd Gleason: Note noted that it was there, not that it was a problem.
• 11:10
  Sherman Newlin: Right.
• 11:10
  Todd Gleason: See how all that turns out.
• 11:12
  Sherman Newlin: Yeah. Exactly.
• 11:13
  Todd Gleason: Well, it'll be interesting to see what the numbers look like when they're released on Friday from the folks at Pro Farmer. There is a difference between the tour numbers and their national numbers, and even their statewide numbers when they give them. So we'll have those tomorrow, and I thank you for being with us all week. It's really great that you do this year in and year out for us.
• 11:36
  Sherman Newlin: You bet. Glad to do it.
• 11:37
  Todd Gleason: Sherman Newland he is traveling on the western leg of the pro farmer crop tour he's with risk management commodities a division of Zaner ag hedge