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When The Data Can't Be Trusted, How The Heck Can We Know How The Economy Is Doing? | Wolf Richter
The war of conflicting narratives continues. Bulls point to Q2's robust GDP growth, still relatively low unemployment, an upside surprise in July retail sales, and record high prices for both stocks and existing homes. Bears on the other hand warn about slowing Q3 estimated GDP growth, the triggering of the Sahm rule recession indicator, this week's massive downward revision in payrolls, rising consumer debt delinquencies and recent surveys reporting that half of American adults have less than $500 in savings. When sentiment is full of such crosscurrents, it's prudent to seek the counsel of…
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