Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 263 - 4/23/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 263 - 4/23/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 263 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:26
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:29
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:37
  Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
• 0:40
  week and we are now guys just one day away from the NFL draft.
• 0:45
  And I am deep, deep, deep into tracking the line movement for
• 0:48
  these NFL draft prop bets. And I actually have one bet for
• 0:52
  you guys today. I'm going to look at one player
• 0:55
  just being a first round pick. All Yeah, all that has to happen
• 0:58
  is he goes in the first round. But I got a pretty good mock
• 1:01
  draft edge and also a comparable one book to another book edge
• 1:06
  here. So I'm going to give you my
• 1:07
  first official NFL draft prop bet and there probably will be
• 1:11
  more tomorrow. I really want to not get too out
• 1:14
  ahead of it. Obviously, if you're betting
• 1:15
  something a day out, you feel pretty confident in it.
• 1:18
  But we can also see a ton of game day movement or day of
• 1:21
  draft movement. So I'm got I'm monitoring a few
• 1:24
  others and probably will add a couple more on tomorrow's pod.
• 1:27
  But I officially do have an NFL draft prop bet for you guys
• 1:30
  today. Also, we're going to get right
• 1:32
  back to Major League Baseball in the NBA draft.
• 1:35
  NBA draft, NBA postseason. I should say I have two Major
• 1:39
  League Baseball bats excited to share with you.
• 1:41
  And then one play in the NBA. No total tonight, but a side a
• 1:45
  side with a really sharp line move and a ton of system
• 1:48
  matches. So 3 pack overall baseball and
• 1:50
  NBA playoffs and as well a NFL draft prop bet.
• 1:54
  Now, looking back to our last night, guys, I guess all good
• 1:57
  things must come to an end. We had a pretty good hot streak
• 1:59
  going there last night, 1 and 3 -, 2.38 units.
• 2:04
  Had a good one with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• 2:05
  We got it done for the team, but all three losses, Giants,
• 2:09
  Detroit and Minnesota and the Lakers over.
• 2:12
  Did you guys notice the closing lines for all those games?
• 2:14
  We crushed the closing line value on all three of those
• 2:17
  bets, and yet they're all three losers.
• 2:20
  For example, we got the giants -135 they opened the floodgates
• 2:24
  and gave up a million runs there late in the game.
• 2:27
  Ended up losing 11 to 3 I believe.
• 2:29
  But they actually closed -145 -, 150.
• 2:32
  So we beat the closing line by 10 to 15 cents.
• 2:35
  Giants couldn't come through Detroit, epic CLV, Detroit
• 2:39
  Tigers -115 got a great number there.
• 2:42
  They closed -140 -, 145, literally like 25-30 cents of
• 2:47
  CLV. They lose to nothing and
• 2:49
  Minnesota and the Lakers over two O 9 1/2 maybe even got 210
• 2:53
  or 210 1/2 that close to 11 1/2 or 212 1/2.
• 2:57
  So tells me that we are just, you know, reading the market
• 3:00
  correctly. We got our finger on the pulse
• 3:02
  of these line moves and we're getting good numbers.
• 3:04
  But here's the thing in sports betting, This is why sports
• 3:07
  betting to me is so rewarding when you win, but also
• 3:10
  frustrating when you lose, is that we can get a great number
• 3:13
  and do our part, but the guys on the field, you know, don't come
• 3:16
  through for us. So Giants, Detroit and the
• 3:18
  Lakers, over all great. CLV, all losers.
• 3:22
  So CLV never guarantees you a win, but it does tell you that
• 3:25
  you're reading the market correctly and making sharp bets.
• 3:27
  And over the course of hundreds and thousands of bets over a
• 3:31
  full calendar year, if you're beating CLV by 10-15 cents,
• 3:34
  couple points on a total, you're going to have a pretty good year
• 3:37
  overall. So that being said, let's see if
• 3:39
  we can get back to our winning ways and start a new winning
• 3:42
  streak for today. So real quick, I want to give
• 3:45
  you right off the bat my NFL draft prop bet.
• 3:49
  I love betting the NFL draft. I mentioned this a couple days
• 3:52
  ago or maybe it was late last week, but the one reason that I
• 3:56
  like betting the NFL draft is that it's an information based
• 3:58
  endeavor. So if you stay glued to the mock
• 4:01
  drafts, to the betting markets, remember I told you guys a week
• 4:03
  ago, screenshot the odds, see how they move.
• 4:06
  Well, if you missed out on that, at least screenshots the
• 4:08
  screenshot the odds today again, I'm looking at right now,
• 4:12
  DraftKings screenshot the odds on draft position pick number,
• 4:16
  top five, top ten first round draft matchups, who will get
• 4:20
  drafted ahead of the other guy, position totals.
• 4:24
  Again, screenshot those so you have a point of reference
• 4:26
  between today and tomorrow. One thing that I really like
• 4:29
  too, is with the mock drafts, you know, if you're, if you're
• 4:32
  months and months away from the draft, you know, people, you
• 4:35
  know, I don't want to rag on people who live in their mom's
• 4:37
  basement, but anyone can put out a mock draft.
• 4:39
  It may not be that informative, but when you get to the big
• 4:42
  guys, Todd Mcshay, Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, you know, these
• 4:46
  big name kind of draft Nicks, their final mock drafts are
• 4:50
  usually pretty good because by this point, a day away from the
• 4:53
  draft, a lot of information is leaking out on who's going to
• 4:56
  take who. You're now hearing reports of
• 4:58
  maybe their teams trading up, which as a Patriots fan, you
• 5:01
  know, I'd be OK with the Pats traded away 4 and got, you know,
• 5:05
  a stockpile of plays or picks. But usually these mock drafts
• 5:08
  are pretty accurate, which is why I want to late, wait late.
• 5:10
  And then you have word leaking out and lines moving really the
• 5:14
  day of the draft. So it's a great information
• 5:15
  based bet if you're paying attention.
• 5:17
  Also, you talk to the odds makers.
• 5:19
  They hate booking the draft because it's a loser for them
• 5:23
  and again, typically the house always wins, but it's it's hard
• 5:25
  for them to set accurate numbers.
• 5:27
  Then they kind of just move off of big action coming in.
• 5:30
  So I think that creates an opportunity for sharps to make
• 5:33
  some money on the NFL draft. Now with all that being said,
• 5:37
  I'll probably have a few more bets for you guys tomorrow.
• 5:39
  But there's one bet that I put in last night and I woke up
• 5:42
  today and at one book it's still the same number, but across the
• 5:45
  market it's much higher. So my one bet, if you'd like to
• 5:49
  ride it with me, it is a chalk price.
• 5:51
  Remember, the pros aren't scared off by land chalk minus numbers,
• 5:55
  whereas you know the betting public wants to bet big plus
• 5:58
  money numbers. But the one that I landed on was
• 6:01
  a Mecca Egbuka, the stud wide receiver from Ohio State to be a
• 6:07
  first round pick. Now, his over under draft
• 6:10
  position right now at DraftKings is 29 1/2, but the under is
• 6:15
  juiced to -275 so they're making you pay a big price, expensive
• 6:19
  price to take the under. So he'll go somewhere from one
• 6:23
  to, you know, 29. Basically.
• 6:26
  You look at a lot of mock drafts right now, Mecca Egg Buka, who
• 6:29
  set the record for catches at Ohio State, that's hard to do.
• 6:32
  They got a lot of great stud wideouts that have gone there.
• 6:35
  But a lot of my drafts have him, like in the early 20s.
• 6:39
  You're seeing also, who is it? The Chargers may be focusing on
• 6:43
  Egg Buka, but he's a really good wide receiver.
• 6:46
  He's rising late in all these mock drafts.
• 6:48
  Under 29 1/2 is -275 what I did is I played Egbuca just to be a
• 6:54
  first round pick that protects you a little bit if he ends up
• 6:56
  going, you know, 303132. But what I got there at as the
• 7:02
  number is -300 so -300 it's a big price.
• 7:06
  I fully admit, you know, your, your limits are low when it
• 7:09
  comes to these NFL draft prop bets.
• 7:12
  You're risking a unit. You're getting 1/3 of a unit
• 7:14
  back. But what I liked about this one
• 7:16
  is when I saw DraftKings at -300 egg Buca to be a first round
• 7:20
  pick just for s s and GS, I went to FanDuel.
• 7:24
  And at FanDuel he's -500 to be a first round pick.
• 7:28
  So FanDuel is -500 DraftKings is -300 even though it's kind of an
• 7:33
  expensive chalk price tells me that's a pretty good number
• 7:36
  there. And maybe DraftKings is kind of
• 7:38
  underestimating or giving us a far better price for this one.
• 7:42
  So I know it's a minus number. I know it's -300 you know, this
• 7:45
  is a 1 unit play for me like any other bet.
• 7:48
  But if we can get 1/3 of a unit, hey, it may not seem like much,
• 7:51
  but we'll take it and we'll reinvest it.
• 7:53
  So I did play IGBUCA first round pick -300 at DraftKings.
• 7:58
  Now let's get to our NBA play here for tonight. 3 pack
• 8:01
  overall, one NBA, 2 MLB. Let's try to go 2 in one eek out
• 8:05
  a winning night. So I'm going to focus on the
• 8:07
  Warriors and the Houston Rockets.
• 8:10
  This is Game 2 of the first round in the West.
• 8:13
  We had the Warriors take the opener in Houston 95 to 85.
• 8:17
  Now we have Game 2 with Houston down 10.
• 8:20
  Now the first thing that jumped out to me was the line move.
• 8:23
  I like the Rockets to win this game tonight, guys.
• 8:26
  Rockets open this game as low as -1 1/2 - 2.
• 8:30
  We're now seeing the Rockets get steamed up to -3 -, 3 1/2.
• 8:34
  Some shops even creeping up a little bit toward -4.
• 8:37
  So this is one of the biggest line moves of the day.
• 8:39
  And that movement is all going toward the Houston Rockets.
• 8:42
  Again, as low as -1 1/2, as high as now -4 So that just jumped
• 8:47
  out to me. And this is the beauty of having
• 8:49
  a live odds page. You hear me talk about odds
• 8:50
  logic all the time, but just by having that column that says
• 8:53
  open, it's a static column that never changes.
• 8:55
  It just gives you the opening number.
• 8:57
  And then all the other numbers to the right are the current
• 9:00
  prices at all the different sports books.
• 9:01
  So you immediately can see 1 1/2 up to 3 1/2 four lines going to
• 9:05
  the Houston Rockets tells me a lot of money came in on the
• 9:08
  Rockets. Second thing I noticed are some
• 9:11
  fantastic bet splits on the Rockets.
• 9:13
  If you look at DraftKings right now on the spread, 55% bets 93%
• 9:18
  of money. At Circa, 57% of bets 89% of the
• 9:22
  money. So both DraftKings and Circa
• 9:25
  very similar where it's like kind of split public a little
• 9:28
  bit toward Houston, but heavy, heavy big dollars on Houston.
• 9:33
  And then we have a lot of these other angles that I look toward.
• 9:36
  So #1 if you look at just favorites in the postseason so
• 9:40
  far, this does include the play in tournament, but favorites
• 9:44
  chalk 11 and eight against the spread, 58%.
• 9:47
  If you are a playoff team with a line move in your direction,
• 9:51
  just as long as the line goes in your direction, at least a half
• 9:53
  .10 and six ATS 62%. And then the system that I
• 9:57
  really like is your zigzag system.
• 10:00
  So the zigzag, if you've been paying attention to NBA
• 10:03
  playoffs, you know, over the years it was a kind of under the
• 10:06
  radar, just awesome system. It has leveled out a little bit,
• 10:10
  but it still has some pretty good stats on it.
• 10:13
  But play if you're a playoff favorite off a loss, so your
• 10:16
  favorite in a chalk postseason where chalk does well, you're
• 10:19
  off a loss, so you got to bounce back.
• 10:21
  Houston's also at home. So if you go O2 at home, then
• 10:24
  you got to go on the road down O2.
• 10:26
  You know, you're pretty much cooked there unless you're my O
• 10:28
  4 Boston Red Sox. But in that spot, playoff
• 10:32
  favorites off a loss, they're one and O against the spread
• 10:35
  this postseason, they're 74 and 52 against the spread of 59%
• 10:40
  cover rate since 2020. So favorites, favorites, line
• 10:44
  moves and playoff favorites off a loss all lighting up on the
• 10:48
  Houston Rockets. Now, I'm going to protect myself
• 10:51
  a little bit because again, this line did open as low as 1 1/2.
• 10:55
  It's all the way up to 3 1/2. Let's say the Rockets win by 1-2
• 10:58
  or three. We lose our 3 1/2.
• 11:00
  So I played the money line on the Houston Rockets to just win
• 11:03
  this game. It's also very important that
• 11:05
  you shop for the best number because right now the Houston
• 11:08
  Rockets you can get -155 at DraftKings, next best price is
• 11:12
  -160 at BET MGM. But other books are closer to
• 11:16
  -165 -, 170. So you definitely want to shop
• 11:19
  around. If you have access to
• 11:20
  DraftKings, that's your best price -155 Our friends at Rhythm
• 11:25
  gave us three models for this game.
• 11:27
  And here are the final predicted scores.
• 11:29
  Rockets win one O 6 to one O 3.1, Rockets win one O 6.4 to
• 11:35
  one O 2.7, and Rockets win one O 4.5 to one O 2.6.
• 11:41
  So if you do some math, you know there's some 3 point wins there.
• 11:44
  There's some like two 2 1/2 point wins there.
• 11:47
  If you know, rhythm ends up being, you know, nailing this
• 11:50
  one. Maybe they win by two or three.
• 11:52
  We don't we don't cover a 3 1/2. So that's why I went money line
• 11:56
  to just hashtag win the damn game with the Rockets -155 and I
• 12:01
  did notice there is a 6% sharp mush edge from the Juice Real
• 12:05
  app that is lighting up on the Rockets.
• 12:07
  So this is a classic zigzag game one at home, you lose.
• 12:11
  Game two, you got the line move, you got to bounce back.
• 12:14
  We got some great bet splits, some good movement, some good
• 12:17
  rhythm edges. I'm a big Houston Rockets fan
• 12:20
  tonight I'm going Rockets to win the game on the money line.
• 12:23
  I got them at -155. Now let's go to some Major
• 12:27
  League Baseball. I am sweating someday game
• 12:29
  action here today, but I got two games later tonight for you.
• 12:32
  So first one, let's go to my backyard, Fenway Park, Boston,
• 12:36
  MA, the Red Sox here hosting the Seattle Mariners.
• 12:41
  Now, if we look back toward yesterday, I'll set the stage,
• 12:45
  talk some line movement talk system matches and I'll give you
• 12:47
  my play here. Red Sox, we're now 14 and 11.
• 12:50
  Pretty good start decently for our win total over 85 1/2.
• 12:53
  If you played with me, had a big win last night, eight to three,
• 12:57
  they covered, covered. They won that game as a -, 120
• 13:00
  home favorite. So pitch match up tonight, we
• 13:03
  got the Mariners, who are 12 and 11 going at the ready.
• 13:06
  Emerson Hancock. He's Owen one with a 12.71 ERA.
• 13:10
  He'll be opposed by the lefty Sean Newcomb for the Red Sox,
• 13:13
  Owen 2, but a decent 3.63 ERA. So what have we seen across the
• 13:18
  market here? Well, this came open with the
• 13:19
  Red Sox listed round A -. 130 home favorite in Seattle, around
• 13:23
  a + 115 row dog. And we've seen nothing but steam
• 13:27
  on Boston Red Sox -130 now up to -140 I got Boston -138 little
• 13:33
  bit earlier today. You can still get -140 at both
• 13:36
  Bet MGM and Caesar's. But aside from that 10 cent
• 13:39
  steam move in favor of Boston, when I'm looking at baseball,
• 13:43
  $0.10 kind of gets me excited. That's kind of the line of
• 13:45
  demarcation of quote UN quote, a big move, but really good bet
• 13:49
  split the Red Sox at circa 80% bets, 99% money.
• 13:54
  So low bets, higher dollar sharp split out there in Vegas in
• 13:57
  favor of Boston. Then we light up all of our
• 14:00
  system matches here on the Red Sox.
• 14:01
  Red Sox are a home favorite. Home favorites are 156 and 7867
• 14:06
  percent, 10% ROI. This year, non division home
• 14:10
  favorites off a win with at least $0.05 of steam, they're 44
• 14:13
  and 1772 percent, 16% ROI. Home favorites with a winning
• 14:18
  record 80 and 3073 percent, 18% ROI.
• 14:23
  And lastly, just our classic favorite with a line move in
• 14:26
  your direction, 151 and 8265% with a 7% ROI.
• 14:32
  I also like the fact that this is a non division game, so lack
• 14:34
  of familiarity, hopefully benefiting quote UN quote the
• 14:37
  better team. And I'll bank on the Red Sox
• 14:39
  bats hopefully coming to life here tonight.
• 14:41
  I can tell you in Boston, even though my allergies are killing
• 14:43
  me, I got I always get spring allergies and everything's in
• 14:46
  bloom, but it is pretty nice in Boston.
• 14:48
  Fenway Park should be, I think upwards of like 65° tonight,
• 14:52
  which is always good for the bats.
• 14:54
  But the Red Sox rating two 49116 runs scored.
• 14:57
  Seattle's only hitting 223 with 101 runs scored.
• 15:01
  Red Sox, by the way, are hitting 251 against righty's this year.
• 15:04
  That's the 8th best in baseball. Mariners only hitting 214
• 15:08
  against lefties. That's 21st in MLB.
• 15:11
  And then lastly, a little bit of home Rd.
• 15:13
  Red Sox 8:00 and 4:00 at Fenway. Seattle just four and six on the
• 15:16
  road. So Sox won last night.
• 15:19
  I'm going back to the wall. Hope they hope they can get a
• 15:21
  win for us here tonight. But we got some good steam, good
• 15:24
  system matches, bat splits, better bats and hopefully some
• 15:28
  home Rd. edge at Fenway tonight. So I'm on the Red Sox, I got a
• 15:32
  -, 138 again, you're upwards of around -140 now at Bet MGM and
• 15:37
  Caesars. Last bet of the night and ain't
• 15:40
  broke. Don't fix it play.
• 15:41
  Let's go right back to the desert Tampa Bay Rays at the
• 15:44
  Arizona Diamondbacks. So setting the stage here, the
• 15:47
  Diamondbacks 14 and 9 on the season.
• 15:49
  They won last night's interleague series opener for us
• 15:52
  5 to 1. Did you notice they close?
• 15:54
  Like -190 what did we get them at yesterday?
• 15:57
  I think they're a -, 160. So weird night where we just
• 16:00
  crushed all the CLV last night but only went one and three.
• 16:03
  That's a bit frustrating. Anyway, tonight we have the Rays
• 16:07
  who are 9 and 14, sending out Taj Bradley, the righty 2 and
• 16:12
  one 5.24 ERA. Meanwhile, the Snakes are going
• 16:14
  to go with the lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, 1 and 2, ERA of four
• 16:18
  point O 9. So what have you seen across the
• 16:20
  market here? Well, this game opened with
• 16:23
  Arizona around a -, 140 home favorite Tampa Bay around a +
• 16:27
  125 Rd. dog. And as I mentioned, ain't broke.
• 16:31
  Don't fix it. Sharps are going right back to
• 16:33
  the well with the snakes tonight.
• 16:34
  That's where I'm going. We saw the snakes open around
• 16:37
  -140 now they're all the way up to -160 I jumped on Arizona
• 16:42
  little earlier today at -146 again, if you sign up for the
• 16:46
  tip jar best bets $4.99 a week on Juice Reel.
• 16:50
  You'll get all these numbers hopefully a little earlier in
• 16:52
  the day and get some COV. We did see the steam in favor of
• 16:55
  the snakes -140 up to -160 good bet split, in particular at
• 17:00
  Circa. At circa, Diamondbacks are
• 17:02
  getting 64% of money line bets, but 95% of money line dollars.
• 17:08
  So big low bets, higher dollar discrepancy out in Vegas in
• 17:11
  favor of the snakes. Then you look at the system
• 17:14
  matches lighting up here, all on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• 17:18
  We have the first one. As always, your home favorites
• 17:21
  67 percent, 10% ROI this year, favorites with line movement in
• 17:25
  their direction, those teams are 151 and 8265 percent, 7% ROI.
• 17:31
  Home favorites with a winning record, 73 percent, 18% ROI.
• 17:35
  Non division home favorite off a win with Steam $0.05 or more, 72
• 17:39
  percent, 16% ROI. So all those matches lighting up
• 17:43
  on Arizona, I want to bank on Arizona's bats hopefully coming
• 17:46
  to play tonight. They got going late in the game
• 17:49
  last night, which was nice. But they've hit 32 homers,
• 17:51
  scored 125 runs. Rays have only hit 21 homers and
• 17:55
  scored 95 runs. D backs are hitting 279 at home
• 17:59
  this year, third best in baseball.
• 18:01
  Rays are only hitting 211 against lefties.
• 18:03
  That's 22nd in Major League Baseball.
• 18:06
  Home Rd. splits Tampa Bay O and four on the road.
• 18:09
  They've only played four Rd. games.
• 18:10
  They've been at home a lot, but Arizona's 747 and four at home
• 18:14
  this year. So good.
• 18:16
  Good sharp steam, kind of a notable system match play, good
• 18:20
  bet splits, better bats, home Rd. splits.
• 18:23
  I'm going with the Diamondbacks hopefully to get another win for
• 18:26
  us again. I got Arizona -146 now you're
• 18:29
  looking at around -160 -, 165 Let's go snakes.
• 18:34
  So Boston and Arizona, can we get at least one?
• 18:37
  Getting both would be great. And let's see if Houston Rockets
• 18:40
  hopefully can come through for us tonight.
• 18:42
  So that about does it for episode 263 of the All Systems
• 18:46
  Go sports Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 18:48
  Of course. This is the part of the pod
• 18:50
  where we wrap things up. And I start first by saying
• 18:52
  thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 18:54
  out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
• 18:57
  the virtual bar. And so it's some sharp
• 18:59
  data-driven breakdowns with me. If you do enjoy the pod, could
• 19:03
  you please do me a solid, give it a five star review on Spotify
• 19:06
  or iTunes If you want to leave a nice comment under the review
• 19:09
  section or click the follow button.
• 19:11
  That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
• 19:14
  Or recommend the pod to a friend.
• 19:15
  That would also be very much appreciated.
• 19:18
  Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
• 19:22
  sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the market is
• 19:25
  doing, not betting games based on our gut instinct and bias,
• 19:28
  but trying to get down on games that fit our model from a
• 19:31
  data-driven perspective. Focusing on line movement, bet
• 19:34
  split system matches, all that great stuff.
• 19:37
  If this style of betting has appealed to you and you want to
• 19:39
  learn more about data-driven betting or maybe you have
• 19:42
  someone in your life, a friend, a colleague, a family member who
• 19:45
  maybe is looking to get into betting and doesn't really know
• 19:47
  where to start or does bet a little bit and just you know,
• 19:51
  it's just throwing darts basically.
• 19:52
  You know what you should do, You should buy a copy of the
• 19:55
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 19:57
  Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 20:00
  Betting. It's the first book I ever
• 20:02
  wrote, very proud of it. But it's really geared toward
• 20:04
  brand new betters or kind of intermediate betters.
• 20:07
  But I do have a lot of kind of high level betting system
• 20:09
  matches as well. But if you want to pick one up,
• 20:12
  it'll mean mean the world to me. And if you already have, I
• 20:14
  really appreciate it. While you're at it, while you're
• 20:17
  on Amazon.com, you can go to the sports gambling or sorry, Yeah,
• 20:21
  yeah, sports gambling. That's right, sports gambling
• 20:25
  section and go to the number one bestseller.
• 20:28
  I noticed today my new book is the number one bestseller for
• 20:31
  sports gambling on Amazon. Very happy about that, very
• 20:35
  humbled and and excited. You can also pre-order a copy of
• 20:38
  that new book called the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
• 20:41
  How to analyze the market, go contrarian and bet like a
• 20:43
  data-driven wise guy. I cannot wait for you guys to to
• 20:46
  check it out. But if you'd like to pre-order a
• 20:48
  copy for 24 bucks, it would really really make me happy and
• 20:51
  make my publishers at Triumph very happy as well.
• 20:55
  You can pick up one or both of those books, bring them to the
• 20:58
  sports book. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 21:00
  ale. We'll sweat some games together.
• 21:01
  Get some nachos next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 21:05
  Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 21:07
  apps. Well if you haven't done it yet,
• 21:08
  what are you waiting for? Rhythm is great for their AI
• 21:11
  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 21:14
  Juice Reel where you can get the all systems go.
• 21:17
  Best bet picks for $4.99 a week. Again, this pod is free.
• 21:22
  Do I hopefully give you 5 bucks worth of betting insights per
• 21:25
  week? I would like to think I do, I
• 21:26
  hope so, but you can let me know you appreciate the pod by
• 21:30
  signing up for those best bet picks.
• 21:32
  You can just click the tweet that I put out each day guiding
• 21:35
  you toward that, that buy sell page on Juice Reel.
• 21:39
  Or you can again, just go to buy sell and search ASG under score
• 21:42
  podcast. But also you're going to get the
• 21:45
  Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
• 21:48
  arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line futures.
• 21:50
  It's all located in the Juice Reel app.
• 21:53
  Another cool thing about Juice Reel, as you sync up your sports
• 21:55
  books, when you bet them at your app on your your phone, they go
• 21:58
  right to juice Reel. And then you can have a running
• 22:01
  track record of all your sweats to get the graph showing you
• 22:03
  the, you know, the green when you're winning or the however
• 22:06
  the game's going. It's kind of cool to just give
• 22:09
  you some more insight. It's almost like a report card
• 22:12
  for all your betting action, but go download rhythm, go download
• 22:16
  Juice Reel, and then you'll be off and running with two great
• 22:18
  sports betting apps. Lastly, if you're betting on
• 22:22
  sports, you got to have a live odds page.
• 22:24
  You got to know number one, just the most basic question, which
• 22:28
  games are played today? What are the games I can bet on?
• 22:31
  The out The live odds page will show you every game on the board
• 22:33
  that day, all the upcoming games from all the different sports.
• 22:37
  But then you also got to know what the line opened at, how it
• 22:39
  moved. So you get the opening column
• 22:41
  and the current prices and you want to follow the market
• 22:44
  setting books like Pinnacle, like Circa, and once they get
• 22:47
  set and move, then other books will copycat.
• 22:50
  So the great part of that is shopping for the best line where
• 22:53
  you can easily do that from the Odds Logic live odds page.
• 22:56
  So if you haven't done it yet, I think you should give Odds Logic
• 22:59
  a shot. Maybe you don't have an odds
• 23:00
  page and you need one, or maybe you have one, but it's free,
• 23:03
  which is great, but it's delayed and it doesn't give you all the
• 23:06
  books and the good bet splits. Or maybe you have one and it's
• 23:09
  too expensive. You know, you know what you
• 23:11
  should do. You should switch to Odds Logic.
• 23:14
  And to do that, all you got to do is go to
• 23:15
  thislinkoddslogic.com/josh 123. That's Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 23:23
  You click that link again, make sure you have the slash Josh 123
• 23:27
  at the end because that's going to give you a free seven day
• 23:29
  trial. And then you're also going to
• 23:31
  get 50% off your first month. So it'll be off and running with
• 23:34
  I would argue the best and most valuable live odds page around.
• 23:39
  So that about does it for episode 263 of the ASG pod on a
• 23:42
  big Wednesday on the eve of the NFL draft.
• 23:46
  As always, guys, I'll leave you a couple things.
• 23:47
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 23:52
  River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
• 23:54
  Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston, or
• 23:57
  Plain Ridge Park casino R.E.M. Gem Springfield in my neck of
• 24:00
  the woods in Massachusetts. Or of course, the Nash, my new
• 24:03
  favorite sports book that's closest to me.
• 24:05
  We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down or
• 24:07
  Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest juice
• 24:10
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 24:12
  So in sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium swim
• 24:15
  pool, when you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
• 24:19
  you are going to walk up to me. Unfortunately, we only had one
• 24:22
  winner last night. Show me an Arizona Snakes ticket
• 24:24
  again. I can't believe we crushed CLV
• 24:26
  on all three of those other games and they were all losers.
• 24:27
  But hey, that's betting. Sometimes it happens.
• 24:30
  But guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 24:32
  you. We'll post about the book and
• 24:34
  sweat some baseball, NBA Playoffs and then the NFL Draft
• 24:37
  together tomorrow night. As always, guys one and three,
• 24:41
  three and 1-2 and two, four and OO and four again.
• 24:44
  The previous day's record should never talk us into a bet or talk
• 24:48
  us out of a bet. We just got to stay even keeled,
• 24:50
  stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
• 24:52
  And if we can do that, bet games based on our head and not our
• 24:55
  heart. Against the public, with the
• 24:57
  house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
• 25:00
  line value. If we can do that, and I'm
• 25:02
  confident that we can and guess what, we're going to be
• 25:05
  successful sports bettors. So have a great Wednesday night,
• 25:08
  everybody. I'll be right back at it
• 25:10
  tomorrow for a big thirsty Thursday.
• 25:12
  Thursday, NFL draft day. Cannot wait.
• 25:16
  Have you ever seen the NFL draft movie with Kevin Costner?
• 25:18
  It's actually not that bad. I kind of, I kind of like it if
• 25:21
  you've never seen it before. But anyway, I'll see you guys
• 25:23
  tomorrow. Look forward to it.
• 25:25
  Hope you have a great night and I hope we can catch some
• 25:27
  tickets. Good luck everybody, take care.