Latest / The Fourcast / What will Israel do if Trump doesn’t attack Iran? | ex-IDF intelligence chief

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What will Israel do if Trump doesn’t attack Iran? | ex-IDF intelligence chief · The Fourcast

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  Iran is the source of all the problem in the Middle East.
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  If it's gone, it's a huge opportunity.
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  Where does that leave the 2.2 million people of Gaza, the 3.5
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  million Palestinians in the West Bank?
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  You are failing to the same trap, the trap that the source
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  of the problem in the Middle East is the Israeli Palestinian
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  conflict. You think it's Iran?
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  I think it's Iran. The regime collapse will be the
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  best result of this campaign. But you could get chaos as a
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  result in Iran. You could get what we had in
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  Libya or what we had in, you know, Afghanistan.
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  Nothing will be worse than this regime.
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  Welcome to this special edition of the Forecast from the hills
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  above Tel Aviv. There's an awful lot going on,
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  as you can imagine. We've got the continuing
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  ballistic duel between Iran and ISO.
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  We've got still the threat, or perhaps it's a promise of
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  President Trump getting involved on Israel's side.
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  And the key question in all this is what would the blowback be
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  from that involvement, but also what can the Americans actually
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  achieve in terms of neutralising Iran's nuclear programme?
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  Well, someone who knows the answers to both of those is
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  General Amos Yaddin, the only human being alive to be involved
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  in the neutralisation of two nuclear issues.
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  One was the 1981 attack on the Asarak nuclear reactor in Iraq,
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  where he was a fighter pilot and then as head of Israeli
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  intelligence in 2007. General Yaddin, it's a pleasure
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  to have you on the on the forecast if the Americans get
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  involved. But if Trump decides to get
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  involved in this, what difference will that make?
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  And what do you think? The reaction could be from Iran
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  itself or from Hezbollah, for instance.
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  I think the importance of the American participation has to do
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  on the technical issue of destroying most of the Iranian
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  nuclear facilities. There is like 20 sites, Israel
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  can reach 19 of them. There is one important place
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  called Fodor which is very much fortified against the most
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  formidable bombs that Israel possess and it cannot be
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  penetrate by Israel and the only Air Force that can destroy it is
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  the American Air Force. So this is about the in generic
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  part of the House, but the political part is even more
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  important because if you destroy even 90% of the Iranian
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  capabilities, the 10%, if you don't do any agreement and you
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  let the Iranians develop what they want to develop, they will
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  have the nuclear bomb, not in six months, not in one year, but
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  in two or three years. So what is important is to reach
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  a different agreement on Iran nuclear ambitions.
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  A political agreement. Political agreement.
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  But can that be done if you push them into a corner?
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  No, On the contrary, when you push them enough to the corner,
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  there will be negotiation and Mr. Witkoff will come like
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  Popeye and they will come with a very weak cards.
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  So this is the political objective of this campaign and
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  the Americans, as I say, they can contribute to the in
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  generica part of the House, but more to the political goal.
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  And if the Americans get involved, do you think that will
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  enhance the political strategy of bringing them to the
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  negotiating table in a weakened position, or could it have the
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  opposite effect? Let's speak about the American
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  intervention, because it must. It may be in two forms.
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  One form is the surgical for door operation, a company with a
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  message. We are not interested in
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  destroying Iran. We are not fighting against the
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  Iranian nation. We are only helping the Israelis
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  to complete the nuclear mission. Don't even think about
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  retaliation because then we will go to a full scale war.
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  The other option is to say the Iranians are going to retaliate.
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  They may not listen to the message.
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  Let's pre empt at least on every element of the Iranian
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  militaries that can attack our forces in Qatar, in Kuwait, in
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  UAE and make sure that the Iranian retaliation will be as
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  weak as it can be. From what you know about the
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  Iranians and what you can imagine their current position
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  to be like, what do you think they will decide to do?
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  I think the Iranians were surprised very much from the
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  attack six days ago. They were in a state of shock,
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  surprise, but they may getting out of the of the trauma and
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  craft strategies that will try to take advantage of their
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  strengths, which is strategic, patient, long wars that will
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  make the price for the Israelis and for the American higher,
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  hoping that they will do something like the eight years
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  of the war against Iraq. However, don't mislead
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  ourselves, it is not the same Iran.
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  Most of the Iranians now hate the regime, don't want to go to
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  even 8 months of war and Iran itself.
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  In 1988, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini say I'm
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  drinking the glass of poison because the Iraqis are now
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  firing missiles to nozzle and Tehran where the elite is
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  living. So let's have a look.
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  Israel have done it not in the in the eight years at the
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  beginning of the war, in the first or second day.
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  So I think there will be a lot of pressure on Iran to to end
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  the war. But we need I think about a week
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  to see where the regime is going.
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  What is the decision making process now?
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  Is the supreme leader really understand what's going on?
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  You know, in the dictatorial regimes, the bad news are not
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  going up so quickly and he may see a different picture of the
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  world that is really there. Was it helpful for Prime
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  Minister Netanyahu to say, as he did the other day, that, you
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  know, regime change could be one of the results of this?
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  Why not go for regime change? And he wasn't exactly calling
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  for it. He wasn't saying that Israel was
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  pursuing it, but he said it would be a welcome result.
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  Was that a helpful thing for him to say?
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  I think it was very smart not to put the regime change in the
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  list of the objective of the campaign.
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  Which he didn't do. Which he didn't do not.
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  Publicly, anyway, yeah. And I think we are not good in
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  having instrument to induce a regime change.
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  The lessons from Iraq, from Afghanistan, from anywhere Libya
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  is is a is a bad lesson. So it is smart not to put it on
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  the list. We are also not good in
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  predicting when it will happen. 19901988 Nobody predict the
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  collapse of the Soviet Union, nobody predicted the collapse of
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  the Egyptian President Mubarak or Assad.
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  So we have to be very modest on that, or after saying that a
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  regime collapse will be the best result of this campaign.
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  But you could get chaos as a result in Iran.
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  You could get what we had in Libya or what we had in, you
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  know, Afghanistan. Nothing will be worse than this
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  regime. This regime is very cool.
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  He has the the goals of wiping Israel off the map is the source
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  of non non stability in the Middle East.
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  If there will be a chaos which I'm not sure.
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  Iran is a state with a tradition of a state.
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  It is 3000 years old empire that know what they want and if it
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  will come back to another regime it's maybe taking some time but
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  they will be busy in their own and they will not endanger Iraq,
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  Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Yemen and the the western world.
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  So nothing is worse than this regime point.
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  Again, if the Americans get involved, is it possible that
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  the political landscape in the Middle East will be so disrupted
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  that even those countries that are currently on Israel's side,
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  or on the fence or on America's side might be forced to
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  intervene against either Israel or America?
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  No way, no way. I just came from a defence
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  conference in Prague. So the Arabs are calling for
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  stability and we all understand what they want, stability as the
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  main political phenomena of their regimes, their kingdoms,
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  the export of oil. However, they will not shed the
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  tear if Iran will be destroyed. Iran is a man's sweat to the
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  Gulf States and to any Arab country, any Arab country.
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  So to your question, I'm I'm look at it exactly from the
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  other side that if the Iranian regime will be toppled, it's a
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  huge opportunity for President Trump and for the Arab countries
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  to shape the Middle East in a new alliance, Arab American
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  Israel that will end the war in Iran and the war in Gaza, go
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  forward with normalisation, go forward with non religionist and
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  Iran is the source of all the problem in the Middle East.
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  If it's gone, it's a huge opportunity.
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  Where does that leave the 2.2 million people of Gaza, the 3.5
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  million Palestinians in the West Bank who are more angry, more
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  bitter, more upset than they've ever been?
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  I think you are failing to the same trap, the traps that the
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  source of the problem in the Middle East is the Israeli
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  Palestinian conflict. You think it's Iran?
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  I think it's Iran. I think we cannot solve the
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  Israeli Palestinian issue because Iran is encouraging the
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  terrorist group Hamas, Islamic Jihad to spoil any any going
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  forward. So we have to finish the war in
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  Gaza, absolutely. But how?
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  What? But what's on the horizon for
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  the Palestinians in Gaza or indeed in the West Bank, their
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  own state, living as second class citizens in a in an
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  Israeli state? What ideas do you have there?
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  This is a subject for another interview.
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  We're coming today to speak about the war, but.
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  Is that also a problem that needs to be solved?
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  Of course, of course. And that's what I said.
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  I said if Iran will be defeated, it's been be much easier to
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  solve the Israeli Palestinian issue because the terror
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  organizations that they supported with money, weapon,
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  ideology will be weaker. And those in the Palestinian
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  part of the the problems that there is no peace has to do with
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  Israelis and Palestinians, you know, You know what the
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  Palestinians are shouting in the in the street of London?
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  Yeah, Palestine, from the river to the sea.
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  We also know what the settlers think.
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  They say Israel from the river to the sea, I mean.
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  So, OK, so let's weaken those who are against peace and it can
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  be done only after we finish the war in Iran and we finish the
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  war in Gaza, we will remove Hamas with against peace against
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  Two state solution. Two state solution still has
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  some leverage, so it has a possibility.
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  Two state solution disappear on the seven of October, but it can
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  come back. It can come back after we defeat
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  Hamas. I think there will be
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  Palestinians that will do the thinking of where it LED them,
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  the Hamas and the terror way. In my plan that I say you need
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  another interview, but it was published in November 2023 that
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  the Gaza Strip will be under an Arab mandate.
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  It will be managed by Palestinians, technocrat
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  Palestinians with some connections to the PA.
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  But it should change the the Gaza Strip into a non
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  militarized region with an Arab education that is not inciting
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  for terror and from Palestine, from the river to the sea.
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  Then we will have a chance for peace.
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  It's unfortunately a generation from now.
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  Just getting back to Trump and Israel and Iran, do you think
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  Trump's somewhat erratic, unpredictable behaviour is
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  helpful to what Israel wants to achieve here or not?
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  No, I think Trump is in a dilemma.
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  On one hand he is against forever wars.
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  He has the MAGA people make America great against that, want
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  isolation, don't want America to be involved in the global
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  affairs. On the other hand, it's he speak
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  about peace through strength and he thinks that America should
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  deter Russia and China. This is make America great
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  again. So who will decide what is the
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  right interpretation? Who will make what is make
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  America great again? It's Trump.
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  So I think at that moment, Trump loves winners.
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  You know America in history came to rescue countries that fail.
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  Like ours. Like yours in World War One, in
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  World War 2, like going to to Kuwait against Iraq.
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  This is the first time that America can join a war on
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  national security goal for America but with a winner and
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  helping them to finish the war. On that question, if they don't
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  get involved for whatever reason, whether it's the MAGA
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  camp or they're worried about blowback in the Middle East, can
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  Israel finish this war on its own terms without Trump's help?
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  When you say finish, you may ask about achieving all the goals.
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  This is not easy. It's not easy to destroy, as I
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  say for though, is. So fordo stays basically.
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  Fordo may stay, Never underestimate the Israeli
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  innovation on other means to destroy Fordo, not by the Air
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  Force, but it will be much difficult to complete the
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  missions. However, for me it's more
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  interesting what is the right time that you are in a climax
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  with your achievement and now you start going down.
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  You know, even successful wars always look like a big victory
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  in the beginning, and then it is, it may change.
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  So Israel must find the times that it achieved most of its
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  goal and look for a mechanism to end the war.
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  Of course there is the other side and we discussed the
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  strategies that the Iranians may choose, but I think we have now
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  a huge leverage against Iran. We achieve El superiority as a
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  fighter pilot who believe in El superiority.
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  What was achieved there is amazing.
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  El superiority, which Israel has, doesn't mean that they
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  still can't fire ballistic missiles in Tel Aviv.
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  No, this is another story. It's the story of the campaign
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  against ballistic missiles. By the way, Israel has the best
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  air defense in the world. Ballistic defense.
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  The Iron David Sling arrow. And intercepting all the drones,
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  about 99% of the drones, hundred of them that were launched
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  against Israel were destroyed. So this is also priority in
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  defence. But we have also priority over
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  the enemy strategic areas, which is I think will make it very
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  difficult for the Iranians to adapt a strategy of long war,
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  war of attrition. Just on their strategy, what do
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  you think it is at the moment? Because they're still firing
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  missiles every day and every night.
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  But a relatively small number, I gather.
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  Is that because they're worried about running out?
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  I think it has to do with with both their capabilities were
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  destroyed, were reduced dramatically.
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  Once again, as a veteran of 1991, I saw the Americans trying
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  to to hunt the launchers. And during the whole War 0
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  success. Really.
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  Yeah. And here about 50% out of 300
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  launchers were already. And without launchers, those
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  missiles are useless, right? Yeah, exactly.
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  So no doubt that their capabilities went down, but it
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  also has to do with their intentions.
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  If they thinking about a long war, they have to have economy
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  of launching. Yesterday it seems like they
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  decided that they are going to a very low number of missiles in
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  every attack to keep the Israelis running to the shelters
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  and to disturb to disrupt our life.
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  This morning it was more massive attack.
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  And of course there is the other side.
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  We have to make sure that we have enough interceptors and to
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  do the right decision which of the missiles will be intercepted
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  and which one you can absorb. Technical question on Fodor, the
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  the bombs, the American bombs, those NOP bombs, I think they
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  have 20 of them launched by the B2 bombers.
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  They can penetrate 60 meters into the ground.
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  I'm told that Fodor is 80 meters in the ground.
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  So how does that work? 1st 4 door is under a mountain
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  and the mountain at the top is if I remember right 110 but you
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  are not attacking them. Go to the side.
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  Yeah. You go to the side here, to the
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  side here when you know that you can penetrate.
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  And there is also a technique that you drop the first ball
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  which is doing 60 and then in the same hole you drop the
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  second ball, so another 60 done. Final question, much of the
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  world sees this as a a really big moment of peril, you know,
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  for your two countries, but also for the region ABS beyond.
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  Is that the way you see it, or do you see it as a moment of
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  opportunity? I think all the grave
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  predictions that if Israel attack Iran, there will be at
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  least regional war and maybe World War Three.
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  All these predictions were found two pessimistic and not
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  connected to reality. And you still believe that even
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  though we don't know whether the Americans have got involved or
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  not I. Always said that no World War
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  Three, no regional war, maybe more than Israel and Iran.
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  If the Iranians will decide to go after their threat to close
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  the Strait of Hormuz or to attack Americans pay attention
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  that they are very, very careful.
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  So I think it's a moment of opportunity if Iran.
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  Will change if the regime will fail and even if the same regime
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  will not have this formidable instruments of nuclear program
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  in the threshold and thousands of ballistic missiles and terror
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  organization all over the Middle East.
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  It's a wonderful opportunity to shape the Middle East towards
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  peace. Let me tell you the the last war
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  President Trump want very much to have Nobel Prize for peace.
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  I'm not sure the Norwegians will give it to him.
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  They would drive him crazy that Obama got it in the first term
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  in the first year one. 100 days, yeah.
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  Without doing any contribution to peace.
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  So he has a plan. His Nobel Prize for peace is a
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  table with four legs. Ceasefire or peace in Ukraine,
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  peace in Gaza, agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue and
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  normalization of Israel and Saudi.
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  Each one of them is a Nobel Prize for peace.
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  He want all of them. But pay attention, three of them
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  are in the Middle East and to shape differently the Middle
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  East. Iran should be removed and then
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  the the sky is the limit opportunity wise.
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  You're an optimist. Let me tell you something.
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  When I was Chief of Intelligence, I used to brief
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  President Shimon Peres. And you know when you are chief
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  of intelligence, you usually put forward the risk and President
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  Peres, say, Amos, why you are so pessimistic.
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  The pessimist and the optimist are dying the same but living
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  differently. General Gandin, thank you very
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  much indeed. That's it from the special
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  edition of the forecast in the hills above Tel Aviv.
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  I hope you enjoyed it. See you next time.