From Oil Shock to Policy Dilemma

Macro Pulse · Apr 9, 2026 · 11m

Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy:

• Global growth and inflation surprises

• Shifting monetary policy expectations

• Energy shocks and central bank reaction functions

• Real yields vs inflation expectations

• Diverging electricity prices

• Structural differences in energy capacity