Latest / Mastering Encompass® / Inflation Progress Stalls - Market Update 4/15/2024

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Inflation Progress Stalls - Market Update 4/15/2024 · Mastering Encompass®

• 0:29
  Hey everyone, Larry Bailey here with Awesome Technologies Inc.
• 0:32
  bringing you this week's weekly newsletter looking at the week of April 8th, 2024 in review. As always this information is brought to you from MBS Highway.
• 0:41
  Get over to mbshighway.com to get a subscription and get this information yourself.
• 0:45
  directly. It's also brought to you from Awesome Technologies Inc.
• 0:49
  Gang, if you are on the Encompass platform, there's a lot that you need to know. First of all, you need to be able to look through all your settings using ATI's setting analyzer. It's 200 bucks a month, lets you see everything. Every single setting, inside and out, things you could never see with any other third party technology So check that out. Also, if you're looking to actually understand how to master the Encompass platform, check out the admin training.
• 1:15
  You can also check out the Mastering Encompass Web Essentials.
• 1:19
  Learn everything there is about Encompass Web.
• 1:21
  Things that you had no idea you could do right now.
• 1:24
  Things that are native. It's very important to learn this information so that you don't waste your money on technology that you don't need to buy from other third parties. So, let's get into this review. This is for the week of April 8th.
• 1:38
  Inflation has improved significantly after peaking in 2022, but recent hotter than expected readings have stalled the progress lower.
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  Here's last week's headlines. First is Inflation Progress Stalls.
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  The next story is Wholesale Inflation Better Than Feared.
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  The third story is Continuing Unemployment Claims Top 1.8 Million.
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  And the last story is Latest on Small Business Optimism or Lack Thereof.
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  So our first story is Inflation Progress Stalls and that basically means that the latest consumer price index showed higher than expected inflation in March with the headline reading up .4% from February.
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  And we're getting this information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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  And if you're listening to this on podcast, thank you.
• 2:23
  Thank you. Thank you. If you want to get over to the mortgage community It's a free account. You can get there no matter who you work for.
• 2:29
  It's open to everyone and You can check out the video and you can see what we're sharing on screen so on an annual basis The CPI moved in the wrong direction if you're trying to get rates lowered Rising from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent the core measure which strips out volatile food and energy prices increased 0.4 percent while that annual reading remained at 3.8 percent though it was expected to decline to 3.7 percent Bottom line here is March is hotter than expected consumer inflation report continues a trend we've seen in recent months as rising energy and shelter costs have added to pricing pressure Tell you something else that's in that number is insurance uh you actually can pull this apart there's been a bunch of articles on that uh CPI number, insurance was like up 22 percent, like what? So I don't know, I don't know if this is real or not but there were things that were real in that report like food like again, things that you have to have, food and shelter, and gas, even if you strip that volatile stuff out, it doesn't matter, it's still real money.
• 3:34
  So, uhm, the price stability is part of the Fed's dual mandate of course, when inflation becomes rampant A few years ago the Fed began hiking its rates.
• 3:43
  We know this story, we've seen this story, we've lived this story for a couple of years now.
• 3:48
  And the hope was this year the Fed was gonna reduce rates, but, uhm, you know a few snags along the road here. First of all, the cooling jobs were unemployment rate, that's not exactly motivating the Fed to cut rates, so we're gonna have to wait and see what happens. here in the coming months and more data. So wholesale inflation, here's the next story. Wholesale inflation is better than fear.
• 4:20
  It's a weird way to say it, but here's the story. So the producer price index, and this measures the inflation at the wholesale level, that rose .2% in March. Just below estimates.
• 4:32
  On an annual basis, the PPI rose from 1.6% to 2.1%, but this was better than 2.2% estimate.
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  The core PPI, which strips out that volatile food and energy prices, was in line with forecasts at a rise of .2%.
• 4:45
  So the year of year reading rose from 2% to 2.4% just above forecasts.
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  So with the PPI, the bottom line here is these readings were tame and better than feared. Which was a relief after the hot CPI readings that were reported the previous day. Plus some of the PPI could be comments that factored into another important consumer inflation measure called a Personal Consumption Expenditures. This is actually the Fed's favorite measure.
• 5:09
  This could potentially lead to slightly better PCE report when that data is released on April 26th. Later this year.
• 5:16
  This month. Here's the next story continuing unemployment claims stop 1.8 million. So the initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 in the latest week, retreating from a 2 month high as 211,000 people fall for unemployment benefits for the first time. However, continuing claims- claims.
• 5:33
  Surged higher by 28,000 with 1.817 million people still receiving benefits after falling their initial claim.
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  Bottom one here is- initial jobless claims can be involved till a portion of the week, but they- but they're relatively low.
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  So. Level suggests that employers are still trying to hold on to workers.
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  Yet, continuing claims are still trending higher near some of the highest levels we've seen since November 21, and it's becoming harder and harder for people to find new employment once we let go. Just go on side- side.
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  We do the New York Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations.
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  Response noted that the main probability of finding a job within three months of losing one is now at the lowest level.
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  The probability, this is perception, the probability of finding a job is at the lowest level in almost three.
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  So umm you know what people believe tends to come true umm so we gotta get that, gotta get that reality to fly in the face of expectations umm that's gonna be a challenge.
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  Especially with you know.
• 6:37
  Some of us hoping that the economy cools down which means people lose jobs because you're trying to get lower rates but it's a, that's a hard, it's a hard shell game right there.
• 6:46
  Here's his next story on the latest in small business optimism or lack thereof.
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  So the National Federation of Indi- and Independent Business, the NFIB, Small Business Optimism Index, fell to 88.5 in March.
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  This is the weakest reading since the December of 2012.
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  It's like 12 years ago. As quote, owners continued and managed numerous economic headwinds close.
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  But quote, this is for the chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.
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  Bottom line here is the NFIB noted that inflation is back on the top of those biggest problems for small businesses who are facing as owners are likely feeling the impact of higher oil prices and the stalling progress of reducing pricing pressure. Plans to higher also fell for the 4th straight month, despite taco strong economy, small businesses are still feeling pessimistic.
• 7:34
  Um, here's the family hack of the week. If you're interested in this recipe, get over to the mortgage.community. You can check it out.
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  This one sounds really good. This is all from, this is all about the National Grilled Cheese Month.
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  And this cheddar and apple cheese grilled sandwich is coming from the Food Network.
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  It's gooey and delicious. Um, I actually want to try this sucker. Um, apples and grilled cheese. Sounds cool.
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  Um, but head over to Morsachina, you can check out the recipe there.
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  That's the family hack of the week. Here's what we're looking for this week.
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  So, Monday today, um, there's an update on the home builder sentiment for this month. Tuesday, tomorrow brings news on March.
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  March's housing starts. And building permits while existing home sales data follows on Thursday. Well, I'll see you at an update on March's retail sales and the latest manufacturing data for New York region on Monday.
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  That was today. I'm recording this at 1022 at night, Eastern. So, you can see it was not a good day.
• 8:29
  Um, Treasury was up 9 basis points and the bond fell 48 basis points. That sucker was down 40 basis points at the open.
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  So, it went, it dropped like a rock and it then it sat there.
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  Um, again. Yeah. And if you go back to earlier replays from like, I don't know, January, February, um, this number was well over 101 and a half.
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  Um, so that means in English that money has gotten, um, again 99 is below par.
• 8:59
  So you get a pay- . So that's .61, excuse me, I can't do math, .71, and then add another one and a half to that. So that's 2.21% in money, like real money, um, that's, that's changed that quick.
• 9:16
  And that's why mortgage rates are going to continue to stay high, because the cost of money is going up.
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  Umm, and we'll see, and we'll see how this goes. It's, uh, it's bumpy right. So, my name is Larry Bailey, thanks very much for always coming, uh, also always make sure you come over to the Tuesday meetings. We have Tuesday meetings at 4 o'clock.
• 9:33
  Every Tuesday, uh, uh, 2 o'clock p.m. Eastern, and we have an open, it's 30 minutes. We have an open call in the community for anybody who wants to come and talk about mortgage. We tend to talk a lot about Encompass, um, because that's the only thing that's there, but, you know, we could talk about other L.O.S.
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  plus- platforms or POS platforms or any other technology questions as a mortgage community as a whole. Bring your questions.
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  We'll see you there. My name's Larry Bailey.
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  Thanks as always. Catch y'all next one.