Latest / The Curve / Elon vs. OpenAI, NZ Property Surge & The Soho House Showdown.

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Elon vs. OpenAI, NZ Property Surge & The Soho House Showdown. · The Curve

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How are you feeling so?
2:00
Are you asking me this because I bought my eyes out and now I'm going to squeeze some
2:04
podcast here for some reason?
2:05
Yeah we had a bit of a Kim Kardashian crying, don't we?
2:08
Yeah.
2:09
No, how are you?
2:10
I, it's quite funny because I remember the episode that you cried and the financial
2:15
burn out.
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I had so many friends who messaged me.
2:20
It was actually, I'm going to cry.
2:22
It was actually really about to be a period so just, yeah, it was really special.
2:29
You're going to cry.
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Jesus, what's wrong with us?
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We need to get in sync with our cycles otherwise everyone was always going to be someone
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crying in the pocket.
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No, but it was really like everyone's like, oh my God, why didn't you reach out to
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me?
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Oh my God, why didn't you know like it was?
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In fact, if you haven't listened to that episode, what one was it?
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Let me just get it up because there actually was such an important lesson and just how
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like overwhelming finances can get and how you can try and avoid getting to the point
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where you're like at breaking point with a 137 signs that you're facing financial burn
2:57
out and how to fix it.
2:58
If you haven't listened, we've put out a third episode last week.
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We normally do two.
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We do the Curve Weekly on a Monday or Tuesday and then I'll raise in the Curve like interview
3:07
style episodes and we're doing a three part like mini series with trade me around my
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property journey.
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And let's just say I didn't realise how there's a little bit of a bump in the road.
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There was a real bump in the road and it was supposed to be quite an inspirational
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mini series and but it became a real, you know, a very real journey, gosh, I mean, yeah
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and do you know what the weirdest thing was?
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We were recording and I think we've got to the point with podcasting where we're kind
3:39
of able to push through like if someone says something stupid or someone mucks something
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up like we don't really stop anymore like we kind of just always keep going.
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That was the first time I think in like, I don't know, but it feels like over a year
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where I was like, I actually can't talk, I need to put my microphone down and like just
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have a actual cry was so, I mean I was sitting there going, there's this like part of it.
4:03
Do you want me to have my microphone?
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Like are we recording?
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Are we not?
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Please Emily, I'll produce as hard.
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She was like, she sent me a message after us being like, I feel like I'm exploiting
4:13
you for good content and she was like, I've put a trailer together, you may be crying
4:18
at the start of it and the highlights are all quite emotional.
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I was like, oh God, the highlights are low lights, exploit me for content, you know, but
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it was also like we normally do funny podcasts, I like to think, do you reckon you're pretty
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really?
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Where is?
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This one was quite more poignant.
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Well, it's basically I've been wanting to buy house for ages and yeah, anyway, in fact
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maybe just listen to the episode and it's called, oh God, what has she called it?
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I'm like, do I want to know?
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Sophie has a meltdown episode.
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What is it?
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Why buying a home feels impossible?
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Good title.
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Very title.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Was that Emily?
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Yeah, nice.
5:00
What are we talking about in the Curve Weekly?
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What's happening in the news?
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Well, you know, we're not talking about.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Perfect.
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Yeah.
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Okay.
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For once, he is not being talked about.
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I mean, there's nothing happening.
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I mean, we've just decided he can absolutely eff off for like a whole week of content.
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A bit of both.
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Yeah, nice.
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Love it.
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So here for that.
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Well, I just didn't want to sound like a broken record, you know, talking about the
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same things.
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No, no, definitely.
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Yeah.
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And also, there's heaps of other stuff going on.
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It's not that we're going to ignore it.
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We're not putting our heads in the sand here.
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We're just giving it a breather because let's be honest, it's probably going to be honestly
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four years of this.
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I've also been asked in the street what my view is on track.
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Have you.
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And I'm just, yeah, we need to shop the other day.
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You're like, oh, love the podcast.
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What's your view on Trump?
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I was like, listen to the last scene of taking podcasts.
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Also, I just like caught me really off guard.
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You don't like, I don't know, I just talk about Trump and when you're shopping.
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Yeah.
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Well, I was just not in the zone.
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I was kind of wrecked my brain of like notes and things that I'd previously seed.
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I got a bit flustered.
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Really.
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It's so fun.
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But that must be like the politician not saying on politician, but, you know, if someone
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just sort of out of the street and asks you, what's your view on the economy or why
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are you increasing taxes?
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You know, like it would be quite like, I mean, I have to be fair.
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I feel like they probably are pretty on top of their policies.
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They'd be able to talk about them at the drop of a hair, but you're always researching
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lots of different things.
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Yeah.
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And also, I would say with, I mean, classic that we're actually still talking about Trump
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five minutes later, but I'd say probably your overarching zoom down opinion is just
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like, it's just going to be an up and down four years in the stock market.
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Yeah.
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As the stock market just throws long behind this quite unpredictable person, the stock market
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is just going to be unpredictable.
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And there'll be headlines of things that he does and the market will react, but yeah,
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the best thing you can do is not react.
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I mean, unless Elon Musk goes and phones AI, Jesus, if that point, I'm like, what, why
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are you smiling?
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You just stole the next topic.
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Oh, what a stunning segway.
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But yes, Elon Musk has not, he's made a bid for open AI, which owns ChatGPT, how much
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was he trying to bid?
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98 billion.
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Oh, get off it.
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Like, at this point, their billions are just our dollars, right?
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I know.
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Just like, flashing money around like, you're absolutely having a lot of some of these people
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just have far too much money.
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And Sam Altman, who is the, why does that name sell for the founder of open AI?
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Oh, yes, yes.
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And he was like, no, thank you, but we'll buy Twitter if you want.
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Oh, really?
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And sometimes this stuff is like, it feels like when you're being a billionaire and being
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like, I'll buy you.
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No, I'll buy you.
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Yeah.
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Anyway.
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Yes.
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Sam Altman was like, almost like, piss off.
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I'll buy Twitter if you want.
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So they have a bit of a big company.
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Do you reckon that he, like, he'll go home at night to like, I don't know, his partner
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and be like, hilarious, wouldn't idea like Elon Musk tries to, I'm going to do this.
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You don't think it's just this big game to them, would they actually find it quite
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funny to just throw their weight around?
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Because if there's so many, like, little, like, FU moments that are public, it's like
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celebrities, right?
8:06
Yeah.
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But in, like, we're related to money.
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Yeah, there's a bit celebrity, like, isn't it?
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But he was like, yeah, I'll buy Twitter for 9.7 billion.
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You're basically trying to be like, you're Twitter, all like X sucks.
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It sucks.
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And you want to buy my company for 98 billion?
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I'll buy yours for 9.7.
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Oh my God.
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And Musk bought Twitter, which is now X, back in 2022 for 44 billion.
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So he was like, bit of a jab in there.
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That's got to hurt.
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So he was like offering less than a quarter.
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But open AI was actually founded in 2015, funded by Musk.
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Elon Musk.
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Elon Musk.
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Why are we calling Musk?
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Is that like professional?
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Can we just call him?
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Sorry, Elon.
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I don't want him that much respect, you know?
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Yeah.
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But sorry.
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So he founded it.
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Yeah, he founded in 2015.
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With who?
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I thought it was meant to be like a charity thing.
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It was.
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It was set up and then now it's become like, it's converted from a not profit to a business.
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But he set it up because he wanted it to be almost a competitive Google in the sense
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of it's AI research and stuff.
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So quite interesting that he also in 2018 wanted to fold open AI into Tesla, imagine putting
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Tesla in open AI together like get there to crazy.
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Hold on.
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So sorry.
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So who did he founded with?
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Because I feel like they were co-founders and obviously massively fell out.
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Yeah.
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So Elon Musk and Sam Altman actually founded it together in 2015 and then were fighting
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over who should lead the business and then Musk stepped away in 2018.
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Oh my god, that's so funny.
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Yeah.
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And then now he's come back being like, I'll buy it.
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Imagine it would be like us.
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Who's going to run the curve, falling out over it and then in like publicly throwing our
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way around being like, well, I'll buy it for $2.
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Yeah.
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It's not enough.
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I'd buy your business.
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You're like, whoa.
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For kids.
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Well, actually.
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Oh my god.
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Also, wouldn't you think that Sam Altman is having like a bit of a, oh my god, get over
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yourself.
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Like you left when it was kind of nothing and I built it up to be what it is today.
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So jog on.
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Like.
10:10
Yeah.
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And Microsoft was open AI's first biggest investor and it's still invests in open AI.
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So.
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But why is Microsoft is it a computer service something?
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No, but it's just like it's in there as well.
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So we tend to think of open AI as kind of its own kind of what you have got other investors
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in there.
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Yeah.
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But imagine open AI, Tesla, in bed with Trump, US government, like I'm just, it kind
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of scares me.
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I like it.
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Well, it sounds like it's Microsoft's in there.
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Yeah, yeah.
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You've got like the stable ball father that's in there.
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It's like kids.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Stop fighting.
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Yeah.
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Yes.
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Microsoft feels like it really does feel like they've got a sane stable father in there.
10:56
Yeah.
10:57
It's like got just like pulling the two kids away each other kind of thing like the aggressive
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teenagers.
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Yeah.
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Just sort of shut out.
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How weird.
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Where is Elon getting this money?
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You know.
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What's his worth?
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What's Twitter has been?
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But that's in stock.
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You know what I mean?
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You'd have to sell billions of his Tesla stock.
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He has 378 billion and how much he bid for it, like a third of his wealth, basically.
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You could always go to the banks and get along when you work that much, but also he's probably
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friends.
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He actually have e-mails.
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I'm like, you know, Donald Trump, rich, like a lot of people is like, you know, I want
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to chuck a couple of billion in and like, oh, yeah, sure.
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Wow.
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I mean, I was talking this morning with a friend about, she used to work in Australian
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media and we were talking about is a massive public deal that the show I used to work on.
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They basically are being paid each one million a month for 10 years.
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That's their deal that they've had signed.
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One million a month.
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One million a month, each.
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That they have just coming into their bank account.
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And I'm like, are you sure a month?
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No, it's public.
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They did a $100 million deal across 10 years and that split, yeah, is $12 million a year.
12:03
It could have been you, babe.
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No, they're the hosts.
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I know.
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But like, can you imagine just having a million dollars in your account every month?
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Like, what the fuck would you do with it?
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Even if it came into my account, once, I would probably be like, okay, we'll call it
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a day.
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I don't worry about the other 12 months.
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I'm actually sorted.
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It would have been like, I spoke to a friend this morning about, she's got her own business
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and it's been such a grind for so many years and now it's got to a place where she wants
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to sell it and she'll get a lot for it and she was just like, it's so weird going from
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working your ass off, you know, having very little money to, she's like, all of a sudden
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I'm going to have so much wealth and it's like, it does concern me that people, not necessarily
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her, but there's people like that or that might sign a big contract like that in radio
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or in media and just get so excited and do something all of it.
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I mean, in terms of the end, they've been paid that much for a long time, so it's not
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like news.
12:59
But even like athletes, for example, when you go from not having much to having heaps,
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you really need to have a financial plan.
13:05
You're friend, how you're talking to, does she know what she wants to do with it?
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No.
13:08
Is that why she was talking to you about it?
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Not really, it was just like a kind of a passing comment, but yeah, she was just more
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like, it's going to be such a mind boggle, just to go from that to like, yeah.
13:16
Do you not think that if you had that much value in a business that you knew you could sell?
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You'd be prepared for that.
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You'd be, or you'd, most of your kids have the mindset of like, I have money, even if
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you don't.
13:28
Yeah, but I think it's more like the lifestyle of change as well, you know, you'd be able
13:31
to afford maybe a bigger house, maybe a new car, maybe, you know, go to a nice restaurant,
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like they'd be definitely a step up and maybe some people would just invest it straight
13:41
into another business.
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I don't know, but it's just like making sure that you don't go and spend it all because
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you have built that wealth up over so many years.
13:50
Yeah, I mean, it's such a, it's like a really intangible wealth, isn't it?
13:54
And the thing about business is like, you know, she doesn't also have that until someone
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buys it.
13:59
There's just so many factors that play into it, but you know, I mean, hopefully she
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can successfully exit because that's amazing.
14:05
Speaking of side hustles though, you know, the deep seek founder, which was that
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computer that it came out of nowhere in terms of the computer for Nvidia, he only started
14:15
that two years ago.
14:18
What?
14:19
And these estimations that it's worth like $150 billion.
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And he is now worth about $30 billion.
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So he's one of the Asia's wealthiest tech people and he didn't do it in two years.
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Two years.
14:35
I feel like I'm really lacking brain cells.
14:37
I know.
14:38
And I think about what we've been doing the curve for like four and two years, he's
14:42
my gosh.
14:43
There's just so much money in tech, isn't it?
14:46
I know.
14:47
I know.
14:48
Because it's scalable.
14:49
Yeah.
14:50
You know, it's, yeah.
14:51
Other news, Goldman Sachs.
14:53
Now if you haven't signed up for our curve weekly, do you know what, Vic, I wanted to give you
14:58
some credit here.
14:59
I thought your curve weekly newsletter this week was so amazing.
15:04
Like really, I read it and I thought, I didn't know if you were just saying next
15:06
they were pretty stressful week and you're like, you know, good job.
15:08
No, I could really tell if you put so much time into the research piece, but like particularly
15:13
this week, I was just like, the way that it read, I thought you could write a book that
15:18
was so.
15:19
No, seriously, I was speaking in event earlier this week.
15:22
And one of the questions was with something to do with why do I think finance and businesses
15:26
such a masculine or like male dominated space?
15:30
And my answer to it was I honestly think that for so long, because obviously we're just,
15:36
you know, we're at a tipping point now, there's so many women that have careers that are
15:39
in the workforce, but because for such a long time, those spaces have been so masculine,
15:46
the way that business and the economy is spoken about is boring and masculine or mate,
15:50
but just might not resonate with people.
15:51
I said at this event, you will not find me looking at Wall Street Journal or any of the
15:57
news outlets because I read it and I'm just like, oh, I'm falling asleep.
16:01
Well, we had that girl at the other event and she was like, well, there's some good news
16:04
publications and I honestly get stumped at this question because I'm like, well, I don't
16:08
want to see you there because it'll just be so confusing.
16:11
Don't want to see you there because you have to pay for it and, you know, for someone
16:16
who's not reading it every single day that that's a cost they probably can't afford.
16:22
And but it made me realise and I actually said I was like, if it honestly it wasn't for
16:27
that and me, all of a sudden now feeling like news and business updates actually entertain
16:32
me and interest me because of the way they're spoken about in this conversation on the
16:36
podcast and in the newsletter, I would have no interest in staying informed and I really
16:42
think that and this is, I'm honestly not trying to blow smoke up your bar, but I genuinely
16:46
think that's no blower.
16:48
Yeah, I think the curve weekly and the curve weekly newsletter is game changer.
16:53
It will change how so many people feel like they want to stay involved and what's happening
16:58
in that type of news, which in turn makes us see opportunities for making money, understand
17:04
businesses and why they work and so many of the women at the event came up to me afterwards
17:08
and said the same thing.
17:09
They were like, I love the curve weekly newsletter.
17:11
So I just thought, you know, if you're listening to this and maybe you have friends that you
17:15
think don't get the newsletter or the podcast, can you forward it to them?
17:20
Because I think we, the more women that we have informed on this kind of thing, the better
17:23
it's just that from the outside people think it's not for them.
17:26
Yeah.
17:27
And I thought it was so good, think like one of your best.
17:31
Thanks.
17:32
Yeah.
17:33
There was one bit in there that I spoke about and it was about this whole, we spoke about
17:37
this last week as well on the podcast, but it's just gaining more and more traction as
17:40
this whole, step away from diversity that companies are doing right now.
17:44
Yeah.
17:45
And it's on the back of Trump and on the back of him, you know, removing policies that
17:49
you have to have X amount of diversity in companies and in governments and so, anyways, filtering
17:54
down and we're starting to see, you know, every week there's another few big, big companies
17:59
that are like, we're stepping away from our diversity policies, which is really, really
18:03
sad and unfortunate.
18:04
But one of the ones this week was Goldman Sachs.
18:08
So this is the world's, one of the world's biggest financial institutions, like they hire
18:12
tens of thousands of people all around the world and it's always been known as like a
18:18
boys club.
18:19
I remember when I was pretty sure I had a uni and I had interviewed Goldman Sachs and
18:25
I was like, oh my goodness, like this is me going straight to the top, you know, like
18:30
it was everyone wanted to work there, even yet the job I did, but they wanted to meet
18:36
a start and I was traveling for three months and they wanted me to start then and I remember
18:40
my mum being like, screw the travel, like it's Goldman Sachs.
18:44
And I was like, but I've booked and we're going south America and I was just on the edge
18:47
to call your sister or your parents and get them to transfer when I was in South America
18:50
yeah, yeah, because I wanted to go handlighting, real important.
18:54
I was like, it's a once in a lifetime opportunity.
18:56
I know.
18:57
I know.
18:58
It's all sorry that you're calling from over there and then I need money and they're like,
19:01
we should have gone to Goldman Sachs.
19:03
But also when you're a girl in South America calling your parents, like thankfully I could
19:08
actually call my parents and they were in a position to let me money, but if they'd
19:12
said no, and I'm stuck in South America with my money, you know, a lot of all places.
19:17
I'm really scared that I'd be smuggling some money to help you.
19:20
Not just a British Jones moment, I'm trying to get a snail, something from some random man
19:24
and oh my god, that's right.
19:26
That would so happen to me.
19:27
The Jones four is out.
19:28
I can't wait.
19:29
I know.
19:30
I can't wait.
19:31
Love her.
19:32
I said to flower man, I was like, should we go watch that on Valentine's?
19:35
Cute.
19:36
Yeah.
19:37
I'll be really at 5.30 and picking up.
19:38
Oh, that's fun.
19:39
Yeah.
19:40
That's a good Valentine's.
19:41
Yeah.
19:42
And then I found the receipt for something in the car.
19:45
That was fun.
19:46
That was fun.
19:47
But it was out here.
19:48
I'm really funny.
19:49
Yeah.
19:50
What did you buy him?
19:51
A cricket bat?
19:52
No, he really wanted one of those things that hooks onto your bed.
19:54
It holds your phone and you're kind of fucking kidding.
19:56
I know.
19:57
So he can lie in bed without having to hold.
19:59
That is the most.
20:00
That is the most.
20:01
You didn't get that from Valentine's day.
20:02
I know.
20:03
And his face was, he was pretty, I'm like, you got me this Valentine's.
20:07
Victoria, that's such a dad move.
20:09
Well, you said you wanted it and you needed it.
20:14
It's like you said you wanted it.
20:16
We're fucking through Instagram and it had popped up.
20:18
He's like, how cool.
20:19
I was like, it's not the time.
20:20
I know.
20:21
You're not been married for 45 years.
20:22
Just for 60.
20:23
You couldn't have got a license.
20:25
You must surely say you need to get something else and we like that.
20:30
That was a joke.
20:31
Anyway, what were we talking about?
20:32
Goldman Sachs five years ago said that they would not support any IPOs.
20:38
So that's been a company.
20:39
It becomes public for the first time.
20:41
That had boards that were full of all white men.
20:44
So that was quite big for them.
20:46
Yeah.
20:47
And everyone was like, oh my god, this is like seismic change in the industry.
20:51
Like amazing.
20:53
And this week, they reversed that and said that it's been unfair to white men.
21:01
Unfair.
21:02
I know.
21:03
For darling.
21:04
For white men that have had it so good for so long.
21:07
There's been a few years.
21:09
Oh, for God's sake.
21:11
Yeah.
21:12
It's unfair, white.
21:13
But this whole move is coming from an activist group.
21:16
It's anti-diversity, equity inclusion.
21:18
And they're all balding.
21:21
Oh, yeah, probably.
21:22
Yeah.
21:23
Their push or their motivation is that boards, for example, are putting people on the board for tokenism.
21:29
Yeah, not because of their skills.
21:31
So they're like, this is why we should remove these targets or policies or anything.
21:37
Because you're putting companies at risk.
21:40
So I'm like, sometimes you have to put lines in the sand to create movement.
21:45
Otherwise, you're going to say you just get in the same result.
21:48
Totally.
21:49
Like, yes, you might have to go through a period of tokenism.
21:51
But then it'll be a point, you know, women, people of other minority groups will see that reflected at a board level.
21:58
And aspire to be that.
22:00
And then you'll get more talented people.
22:01
And then you can tell it just takes a while.
22:03
And it's not going to happen in five years, you know, it'll happen like maybe 10, 20 years.
22:09
But you have to, you know,
22:10
It's also just more effort to go outside of your echo chamber to find the right high or the right person.
22:17
Yeah.
22:18
It's not that they don't exist at that.
22:19
It's that you have to try a bit harder.
22:20
And I think that's what the problem is really is that.
22:23
Yeah.
22:24
I mean, I was actually speaking to a friend and she was saying that the company she was working at made some comments about how women feel a bit like stressed or panic drunken.
22:33
The idea of having kids because, you know, their job is at risk and blah blah.
22:36
And she was like, you know how to change that, right?
22:38
Like that's a systemic problem within your culture.
22:41
Yeah.
22:42
And apparently they were like, oh, maybe we need to get a crush or something.
22:44
And I was like, that's a great idea.
22:45
I wanted to make that happen.
22:47
But it's true.
22:50
It's like, you know, if you realize something, but you have the chance to change, I don't know.
22:54
Yeah.
22:55
It's like, I definitely see companies that have tokenism of like one female newborn.
23:00
And I'm almost like, that's just why even bother.
23:02
Do you know?
23:03
But at least it's a step in the right direction because we wouldn't have seen that, you know, 20 years ago.
23:08
Also, a bit closer to home, this will be good for you, so actually you'll be stoked.
23:13
Or what?
23:14
I think.
23:15
Or you think, what?
23:16
My prediction.
23:17
Oh, love that.
23:18
New Zealand property is about to be very strong.
23:21
Really?
23:22
Yeah.
23:23
What makes you think that?
23:24
The reason assets go up in value or increase in price is because there's more demand than supply.
23:31
You know, that's kind of natural economics 101.
23:34
So a very, very simple example of that is there's lots of kids that want to buy lollies at the dairy.
23:40
And they're all buying the dollomax.
23:42
And there's only five dollomaxes, but there's 20 kids.
23:45
So they make them more expensive because you'll weed out the people who will pay for it.
23:50
Yeah.
23:51
You'll weed out the ones a pair of dollar and then only the ones that have two dollars can afford it.
23:53
Yeah.
23:54
Yeah.
23:55
Pure capitalism.
23:56
I went into a dairy the other day and the rich kids get fat.
23:59
No, the rich kids get fat.
24:00
The dollomix had like four lollies in it.
24:03
I remember used to get.
24:04
We used to get bags of lollies for a dollomix.
24:07
I think God you can't.
24:08
Yeah.
24:09
It's good for the kids, you know, sugar and tape.
24:11
Oh, I remember going.
24:12
Oh, you still love this.
24:13
You'd ask for dollomix and you'd say, and you'd be like, one of those, one of those.
24:18
Actually, no, no, no, put that one back.
24:21
But they're in the guy behind the tell is you can just say he's like, you're the tenth kid
24:27
that's coming and done this.
24:28
You know, for a freaking dollar.
24:30
But should we also talk about the lollies at the movies?
24:33
You know, there's giant things that used to shut, like there's like a shovel you would put in
24:37
and pull out the sharks and then you'd pull out of this.
24:39
And you would actually go in with like what felt like potentially 4KGs of sugar.
24:43
Like it was just, it was pretty stressful.
24:45
Oh, you'd weigh it at the ends.
24:46
Yeah.
24:47
And you'd be like, oh gosh, that's like 40 bucks.
24:48
You sit there for the entire film.
24:50
Just shoveling lollies in.
24:52
I used to get so excited by sweet food.
24:54
I'd vomit.
24:55
I'd just eat way too much.
24:56
Your ice cream story?
24:57
Oh yeah.
24:58
And even I'd go to birthday parties and I was little and Mum would have to put me up
25:01
because I'd vomit everywhere.
25:02
Because I just got...
25:03
Honestly?
25:04
She was like, not again.
25:05
And I wasn't allowed to do like birthdays and sleepovers because I'd vomit.
25:09
You're kidding.
25:10
I just, I get so excited.
25:11
I love when the sun comes out about you where I'm just like, I love that I still am finding things out.
25:16
But just like that is so funny.
25:18
How do you not have a concept of your full?
25:20
Oh, it's hard.
25:21
Yeah.
25:22
It's exciting.
25:23
But I just very breathed these Cheerios.
25:25
And these chips.
25:26
And I just...
25:27
Yeah.
25:28
Poor Mum.
25:29
Sorry about my child.
25:31
She doesn't have to feed at home.
25:32
And your wife has vomited again if you could come and pick her up.
25:35
Anyway, so property.
25:37
So we've got a New Zealand.
25:40
One of the most prohibitive policies.
25:44
Pretty much in the world of foreigners buying property in New Zealand.
25:49
What does that mean?
25:50
So you have to be a New Zealand citizen to buy property.
25:53
So if you're American, tough luck.
25:55
And you have to be a tax resident.
25:57
So thanks to Australians and Singaporeans have exemptions to buy houses here.
26:01
But aside from that.
26:02
I think of poor.
26:03
It's so random.
26:04
Aside from that, you have to be a citizen or a tax resident in New Zealand.
26:07
Okay.
26:08
So coming back to the supply demand.
26:11
So the whole lolly, derailleur conversation.
26:14
That means there's less demand.
26:17
Say supply is growing steadily year-of-year as you build more houses.
26:20
But the demand.
26:21
There's less people overseas that can buy houses.
26:24
This is now being...
26:26
Is it changing?
26:27
Yeah.
26:28
So this is now changing.
26:29
And I don't know who we spoke to.
26:31
But do you remember they said just how many people that they have been speaking to in America
26:38
that want to get out of there now with Trump and power?
26:40
Who was that?
26:41
Oh, you were talking about investors.
26:43
Yeah, yeah.
26:44
It wasn't actually someone on the podcast.
26:45
It was one of our investors.
26:46
That's right.
26:47
Yeah.
26:48
She was just like, honestly, the number of people I've spoken to that want to buy property in New Zealand and get out.
26:50
And, you know, just have a bit of an escape.
26:52
So this is really, really good news.
26:54
And hopefully just lead to house prices increasing and increasing and increasing.
26:58
You said we're at the top end because there'll be...
27:00
That's what I was about to say like...
27:02
But everyone, you know, it's still...
27:04
You know, those houses, maybe let's say a $10 million house.
27:07
That had no buyer before.
27:09
Would have dropped it down, maybe to like seven or eight.
27:12
And then you...
27:13
You'd target like a people within that bracket where it's now all those people.
27:16
There's a new influx of people.
27:17
So it does...
27:18
Yes, it will be at the top end.
27:19
But it still helps in terms of demand.
27:21
Does that?
27:22
Or is it just the extensive houses?
27:23
Because like, let's say you wanted to buy a house.
27:25
And there's wealthy people bidding for it and you can't afford.
27:28
Then the price just goes up and up and up.
27:30
And then everyone feels more wealthy.
27:32
More people will start selling their houses.
27:33
Because I'll be sitting here going, oh, actually.
27:36
The house prices are going up and up and up.
27:37
I'm going to jump in and sell mine.
27:39
And then it's a wealth of sex.
27:40
And also just putting money into the economy as well.
27:42
It also helps.
27:43
I mean, it's probably a good thing.
27:45
It's even so stressed about the New Zealand economy, right?
27:47
Yeah.
27:48
And everyone also is often like, ah, the New Zealand property market.
27:51
It's not going to go up like this forever.
27:53
But it's like, well, hopefully it does go up again like that.
27:56
Because the economy needs it, right?
27:58
Yeah.
27:59
Probably prices in New Zealand have increased by 60% over the last 10 years.
28:05
Wow.
28:06
Yeah.
28:07
So, and actually the biggest increase has been outside of main city centers, so outside of
28:11
I don't call my name a question.
28:13
Really?
28:14
Yeah, it's in the regions.
28:15
Because when I was talking to my dad, you know, about me wanting to buy a property.
28:19
He was like, why are you not locking an Auckland?
28:21
I was like, why are you looking?
28:23
I can't afford to buy an Auckland.
28:25
But also because I'm not in a position where I need to live in the house because I'm buying an investment property.
28:30
So I have the option of buying outside of the main centers, you know?
28:33
So I like the stand.
28:34
Yeah.
28:35
New Zealand has also simplified its golden visa program.
28:40
So there's less requirements that you need to get one, which also helps bring people into the country.
28:44
But sorry, what is the golden visa?
28:46
So it's...
28:47
Is it for skilled migrants?
28:48
Yeah.
28:49
And it means, you know, if you come in here, you invest a certain amount of money into New Zealand and you get a pathway to citizenship.
28:56
I think of that.
28:57
Yeah.
28:58
It all helps in terms of more people in the country, more people being able to access and buy property here.
29:03
So on the one side, it kind of not scares me, but it concerns me that we're having to pull these levers because the economy is shit.
29:10
Or doing shit.
29:11
But then it's also good that we've got these levers to pull and hopefully it'll benefit in the long run.
29:16
Is it?
29:17
Having invest people investing money in New Zealand through property or businesses or...
29:21
Is it wildly creative, the things that they've done or have you heard of these things before?
29:27
No.
29:28
So Grace and Portugal have done the golden visa, and it's done really, really well.
29:32
So Portugal's now become this like tech hub for a lot of...
29:35
Oh, it has actually tech entrepreneurs.
29:37
Because there's that web conference.
29:39
It has every year that's like tech breaks and stuff as well for innovation and entrepreneurship in Portugal.
29:44
That's one thing I think New Zealand really needs.
29:46
Yeah.
29:47
I agree.
29:48
Yeah.
29:49
That's quite cool.
29:50
So maybe there will be people who see the golden visa and think, oh, like there's opportunity there.
29:55
They bring their money, they bring their expertise and their bolsters up the whole economy.
29:59
And previously there was a whole lot of requirements for the golden visa which have now been removed.
30:04
So this just opens up the threshold for more people that might have only considered Canada and Singapore.
30:11
And now they're like, oh, we can actually move to New Zealand as well.
30:14
Or even for global businesses here wanting to attract talent as well.
30:18
Super, super helpful.
30:19
That's so cool.
30:21
This one's a bit close to home.
30:22
Lowell.
30:23
So Soho House has been an absolute, terrible investment.
30:28
So it's a public company.
30:29
Yeah.
30:30
I didn't even realize it was public.
30:32
For anyone that doesn't know.
30:33
Soho House is like probably the most commonly well known, somewhat elite club, right?
30:39
Yeah.
30:40
That you get a membership too.
30:41
And it was one of the kind of the original like OG members clubs.
30:45
It started in London and Soho.
30:47
That's why it's called Soho House.
30:49
Like that.
30:50
And then they kind of expanded into New York.
30:52
And now it's got a ton of different locations all around the world.
30:56
Yeah, like all over Europe, like North America, like everywhere.
30:59
And they're essentially restaurants.
31:02
And you can stay there and there's German.
31:05
You can bring a certain amount of friends in.
31:07
Yes, I have an membership.
31:09
So it is Vic.
31:10
And I must say I'm starting to think I need to cancel.
31:13
I emailed to put it on hold where we're in New Zealand.
31:15
And they were like, it's 150 pounds to put on hold.
31:19
Bear in mind this is about 230 pounds a month.
31:23
And you can only do it once in your life.
31:25
And I was like, oh, I might as well just cancel.
31:27
But then it's like they've closed accepting new applicants in America and the UK.
31:35
So if I canceled, yeah, just until further notice, because if you said so many inbound.
31:39
I'm like, is that a marketing toy?
31:42
Probably, but it works.
31:43
I don't want to cancel.
31:45
But how are they doing so badly if there's that much demand for membership?
31:49
Well, if you think about the concept, it's like it's a private members club.
31:53
And now it's a public company.
31:55
So like everything is visible.
31:57
It's financials.
31:58
It's like everything like that.
31:59
And I remember we were in there one day and I saw holes in the cushions.
32:02
Not for you all there.
32:03
But when you change the incentive from, you know, I guess being customer driven
32:08
to being shareholder driven.
32:10
Yeah, the couches.
32:11
They don't need upgrading because that's a cost, that's a profit, that's a way to the profit.
32:16
But then the foreign effect of that if people coming and being like, oh, gross couches.
32:20
And not resubscribing.
32:23
But then they kind of stuck there like us because they don't want to cancel.
32:26
So it's like this whole, I don't know, it's quite interesting.
32:28
But people are saying that the growth has come at the expense of the club's exclusivity.
32:33
So, you know, it's trying to scale because it's now a public business and it needs growth
32:38
because it needs, you know, that's what investors are demanding.
32:41
But at the same time, you want that kind of intimate private locations and houses.
32:46
So it's quite interesting how this has played out.
32:49
And since it's IPO in 2021.
32:53
So it's actually not been a public company for very long.
32:56
No, no, around $12.
32:58
And it's now about $8.
33:00
But only two bands.
33:02
Recently though, so two months ago, it was $4.
33:06
And this one I'm talking about is recently there was a takeover offer for it.
33:12
So there was a bid for the company.
33:15
And who was trying to buy it?
33:17
It's just there's an unknown consortium of people.
33:20
So this could probably be like so suspicious.
33:23
But it could be like individuals plus bank debt or like, you know, it's kind of like people
33:28
that have copped in cobbled together to buy it.
33:30
So it's not like a competitor or someone well known.
33:34
They obviously want to be a bit private.
33:36
They try to find the right.
33:38
But anyway, there is one majority owner called Ron who's in there and he's like,
33:43
yeah, let's sell.
33:45
Like this is a great deal.
33:47
And there's another investor and they're going, no, no, I want to hold out for a better deal.
33:51
So there's this kind of issue going on with, yeah, one of the largest shareholders is trying to convince
33:57
all the other little investors to accept the deal.
34:00
And the other majority investor is like, no, no, no, let's wait for a better deal.
34:03
So yeah, it's kind of this big disagreement with these two billionaire investors.
34:09
What do you think will happen?
34:10
I don't know.
34:11
But the share prices jump because there's a takeover offer and that always kind of happens because they need to
34:16
a company that's going to buy another public company needs to incentivize the current investors by,
34:22
you know, offering them a price that's well above the current share price.
34:25
So like you own something, you're not just going to sell it for what you bought it for.
34:28
It's like, well, make me want to sell it.
34:30
Otherwise, I could just sell it on, on the stock market right now.
34:34
So is the stock price going up because people are anticipating because they're going to have to then
34:38
if a takeover offer does come through the amount they have to pay on top of the current share price.
34:44
Yeah, it's always more.
34:45
So like the people are just paying it by out $4.80 to $7.60.
34:52
That's a massive, that's like well over 50% increase.
34:55
But that's also still really low compared to.
34:57
Yeah, exactly.
34:58
So people, there might be investors going, oh, you know what?
35:00
It's never going to get back up to $12.00.
35:02
Like, when I bought it at IPO, I'm just going to take this and kind of cut my losses.
35:06
And there will be others, which is the other majority shareholder going, no, no, no.
35:10
The company is so still undervalued at the price now.
35:15
Let's wait for a better offer.
35:17
The risk is there is no better offer.
35:20
And because he's a majority investor, if he doesn't sell into the current offer, that falls away too.
35:28
So get it.
35:29
So like you've got, let's say ease of argument, you've got one shareholder is 40%, she's holding one's 40% in the others.
35:35
You know, that's 20% is lots of little.
35:37
You've got Ron here who's like, yep, let's accept the offer.
35:40
I'm going to sell my 40% to this new consortium.
35:42
And then you've got Dan, who is the other 40%, he's like, no, no, no, I don't want to sell.
35:48
And it's like, well, come on, I can't sell unless you're on board because I can't sell the whole company.
35:53
I can only sell my 40%.
35:55
So come on, Dan, like, this is a really good offer.
35:57
And Dan's going, no, Ron, like, don't sell yours.
36:00
And then nothing goes through.
36:02
There is no deal because they can sort him because it wanted to buy 40% of the company, the one about the whole company.
36:08
It would be like an offer for the curve.
36:10
And you and me disagreeing, but I need you on board to sell the business and you need me on board to sell the business.
36:17
But you just said before, I mean, I understand that part, but you said, but the real problem is if there's no other deal.
36:22
And then, so what was that second?
36:24
So sorry, the, well, Dan is like, no, no, we can get a better deal.
36:27
We can get another offer or we can get a higher price.
36:31
But he doesn't necessarily know that he's just looking at probably the share price and the value of the business and going.
36:37
It's still signed a value at this price.
36:40
Let's wait for more.
36:41
You know, it's like kind of like, we've been offered a billion, but I think we could get 1.1 billion.
36:47
It's like, come on, don't be greedy for that extra amount because this offer might go away.
36:51
So you're kind of holding out for a little bit more of an offer, but it's like sometimes you just have to take what you've got otherwise that could go away.
37:00
There are also billionaires.
37:01
I'm kind of like, why are you so stressed about it?
37:03
No, but Dan's probably got a strategy to either turn it around more because he's like an activist investor.
37:10
So he, that means like they get in there.
37:12
They, he's actually doing what they like, remove management or they sell parts of the business and they get in there and they try to realize, realize values.
37:21
So he's probably got a lot more a plan to play out.
37:25
Well, it sounds like he's the one that's like got the plan.
37:27
The other guy's kind of probably a little bit unconscious, just a huge amount of wealth in there once you get it out.
37:31
And when your ship price is going like this, you know, sometimes you just take, when your ship price is going down, down, down.
37:36
Sometimes you're like, oh, well, it would be hard if you're the one's a strategy and the, the ship price is going down.
37:41
So I can turn it around.
37:42
Yeah, yeah.
37:43
And lastly, so the world's second biggest economy, China.
37:49
Who's the third US China and then her?
37:53
Japan, India.
37:55
Oh, oh, fun game.
37:57
Canada?
37:58
No.
37:59
I just said it.
38:02
India.
38:03
Japan.
38:04
Really?
38:05
Really?
38:06
Yeah.
38:07
Isn't it quite a small country?
38:08
Yeah.
38:09
But it's got like Samsung, Toyota.
38:11
You know, you've got a lot of.
38:13
Wow, that's amazing.
38:14
I didn't realize that Japan was so strong.
38:16
Yeah.
38:17
It punches above its weight.
38:18
It's small, but might.
38:19
Small, but might.
38:20
Same size as New Zealand.
38:21
I do have a soft spot for Japan.
38:23
Same.
38:24
I'd love to go.
38:25
Same.
38:26
You are going.
38:27
I know.
38:28
I'm so excited.
38:30
But yes.
38:31
In the second biggest economy, so China, marriages have plunged to the lowest level on record last year.
38:40
It does in new marriages every year.
38:42
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
38:43
Or not the amount of people married.
38:46
Marriages.
38:47
Yeah, but like, is it the total number or is it the new ones every year?
38:50
Oh, I see.
38:51
The number of marriage registrations.
38:53
So new people getting married.
38:54
Yeah.
38:55
I thought you meant like seeking marriages.
38:56
And I'm like, I don't know.
38:57
No, like, yeah.
38:58
Total.
38:59
Yeah, sorry.
39:00
Is it divorces or is it just not new relationships?
39:01
It's the number of marriage registrations.
39:03
So that would be seeking marriages and infants.
39:06
Yeah.
39:07
But new marriages.
39:08
Yeah.
39:09
So this is, so since public records began in 1986.
39:12
So it's back down to that level in 1986, which is.
39:15
It was a hold on.
39:16
1986 would have had heaps, right?
39:18
It wasn't getting married at that time, just the only thing to do.
39:20
Yeah, but we've had population growth since then.
39:22
And now you've kind of gone, yeah, I'm back to square one.
39:26
I'm so interested if that's a global trend.
39:29
Or if that's just in China.
39:31
I would say it's a global trend.
39:32
Thank.
39:33
Because population growth around most developed countries is falling.
39:40
Yeah.
39:41
Or not rising as much as it has previously had.
39:44
It's quite interesting to talk about marriages.
39:46
We're recording this on Valentine's Day.
39:48
Oh, my God.
39:49
Yeah.
39:50
Yeah.
39:51
When this comes out, it's not Valentine's Day, but still.
39:52
Yeah.
39:53
So what does this mean?
39:54
So if you're in China and you're thinking of getting married, do one for the team and boost
39:58
the numbers.
39:59
But why do we need the numbers to go up?
40:01
Because it represents birth rates as well.
40:05
So, you know, traditionally, the stepping stone is marriage, then babies.
40:11
And they're encouraging people, you know, the failure areas of people tying the knot means
40:16
that people are having less babies as well.
40:18
And we've seen that play out in China.
40:20
I'm just still not convinced that this is a bad thing.
40:22
I think this is a good thing.
40:23
I think the planet needs a way less people.
40:25
We just did.
40:26
A whole podcast on it.
40:28
Yeah.
40:29
It's very nice.
40:30
But we're expert from 10 to all that we're doing us.
40:32
Anyways, coming out in a few weeks time, will we look at big trends that are happening in the world?
40:36
And actually it was so fascinating, wasn't it?
40:38
The financial impact of having less young people in the world is really, really bad.
40:43
So yeah, if you've got a higher weight of adult people, that means that...
40:47
Taxes are higher for younger people.
40:49
Because they're the funder, because they're not working.
40:51
Yeah.
40:52
And this is, we go into detail.
40:53
And that's, so that'll come out soon.
40:55
But so essentially, China having less marriages is just another stat that says the population's
41:01
not growing economy versus blah, blah, blah.
41:04
And last year saw the second lowest number of births ever since the people's Republic of China was founded.
41:11
Again, you're not going to get any under that.
41:13
I know.
41:14
But interesting.
41:15
Will that economy shrinking?
41:17
And that feeds into a lot of other economies around the world.
41:21
So if that economy is shrinking, that means there's less tourism for our country, for example.
41:27
That has reverberations to less spending in restaurants and in regions and all of that,
41:33
which means less economic growth for us.
41:35
And so that's just one kind of tree, let alone Australia, let alone the US, yeah.
41:41
So I'm just thinking of the trees.
41:43
This is what I'm getting at.
41:44
Yeah, but a tree's not going to be there.
41:46
No, I mean the environment and the environmental impacts of less people on the planet,
41:51
less waste, less usage of natural resources.
41:54
Like all of those things are, I also think though when economies have money and funding and growing,
42:02
they can put that into technology and resources.
42:05
Yes, but only when politicians are focused on 100%, which is not what we're seeing.
42:10
So vote or the right politicians.
42:14
Yes.
42:15
So everyone, make sure you have sex that we are with it.
42:19
In China or elsewhere in the world, have sex.
42:23
Because it's Valentine's week and lovers in the year and it needs to be for economic growth.
42:28
So go pro-creative run.
42:30
Well, that's romantic.
42:31
Yeah.
42:32
Oh, the economy needs a baby.
42:34
Yeah.
42:35
I'll go ahead for it.
42:36
Hey, baby.
42:37
So we need economic growth.
42:39
Stop it.
42:40
Yeah.
42:41
When you said your project of vomiting the other morning, I did.
42:43
I know.
42:44
I knew exactly God, even I see if I was like, there could be one of three things.
42:51
You have a stomach stress, pregnancy or tummy bug.
42:54
And I think it's hopefully not number one and two.
42:57
Yeah.
42:58
Thank you.
43:00
I know.
43:01
It was really weird.
43:02
I think the night before I did, I had cake for dinner.
43:05
Yuck.
43:06
Cake, ice cream and chips.
43:07
Like honestly, it just goes back to little Vic days.
43:10
Little Vic.
43:11
Little Vic just made too much.
43:12
Oh, Michael, what happened?
43:13
Yeah.
43:14
I know.
43:15
I know.
43:16
I know.
43:17
I know.
43:18
Yeah.
43:19
Yeah.
43:20
Yeah.
43:21
Yeah.
43:22
Yeah.
43:23
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43:25
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43:29
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43:46
Bye.
43:48
Sweet.
43:49
Yeah.
43:50
See you next Tuesday.
43:51
Well.
43:52
See you next Tuesday.
43:53
I mean Monday.
43:54
No, actually though, new episodes out every Tuesday.
44:01
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44:07
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44:16
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44:21
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44:25
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44:26
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