Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 2 Lines and Spreads with Scooch
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Chad, moment
- 0:10Speaker 1: of the Action Network. This is the podcast with my
- 0:15Speaker 1: good friend Bookmaker at the Orleans and all the boy
- 0:18Speaker 1: gaming books in the state of Nevada and elsewhere. Soon
- 0:23Speaker 1: to be Bookmaker to the world. Mr Bob Scucci, Hey Chad,
- 0:26Speaker 1: what's going on? My brother? I was getting into the
- 0:29Speaker 1: groove man that music. I love that music. I honestly
- 0:32Speaker 1: feel like and this is connecting to the theme from
- 0:34Speaker 1: last week. I feel like I'm in sort of a
- 0:37Speaker 1: very cool movie starring George Clooney and Brad Pitt and
- 0:42Speaker 1: directed by Steven Soderberg and um. It reminds me that
- 0:46Speaker 1: last week when we did the podcast. And for those
- 0:49Speaker 1: of who are new, this is the Favorites podcast. Bob
- 0:53Speaker 1: Scucci and I will talk about all the games on
- 0:55Speaker 1: the board and we will examine where the wise guys
- 0:57Speaker 1: are putting their money. Those are the professional betters, will
- 0:59Speaker 1: exam and where the markets are moving, all that kind
- 1:02Speaker 1: of good stuff. The other shows on the Favorites Network.
- 1:05Speaker 1: On Monday's You Get Me, former NFL player Jeff Schwartz,
- 1:10Speaker 1: former MLB All Star Paula Duca setting up the week
- 1:13Speaker 1: with our favorite bets. Looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday
- 1:15Speaker 1: we do in nine team Parley, and then on Fridays
- 1:17Speaker 1: you'll get me and my Action Network brother, black Jack Fletcher,
- 1:21Speaker 1: trying to choose five games that we like for the
- 1:24Speaker 1: Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest so we can win million dollars. Scooch.
- 1:29Speaker 1: When we spoke last week, the power was out at
- 1:33Speaker 1: the Orleans and I was pretty sure it was a heist.
- 1:36Speaker 1: Can you confirm for people, yes or no? Was it
- 1:38Speaker 1: a heist? It was not a heist. Power was out
- 1:41Speaker 1: for a long time. It was not a hoist though.
- 1:43Speaker 1: Security was working overtime making sure that that. How did it?
- 1:47Speaker 1: Where do you like? The power goes out? What happens
- 1:50Speaker 1: to the money? It gets protected? Like you guys just
- 1:53Speaker 1: have a fay links of security guards who are like
- 1:56Speaker 1: in front of the money. Yes, literally, so we we
- 2:00Speaker 1: had somebody just standing in front of the sports book
- 2:04Speaker 1: the entire time. Uh. Same thing with the other areas
- 2:07Speaker 1: of the gaming areas. Some of them get locked up,
- 2:09Speaker 1: the chips get covered up and uh you know there's
- 2:12Speaker 1: a lock and key. So all the all the chips
- 2:14Speaker 1: at the blackjack and crap table and roulette tables get
- 2:17Speaker 1: get locked up. Uh, and then the cashier's cage same thing,
- 2:23Speaker 1: just like the sports book gets kind of locked up
- 2:25Speaker 1: there and get security outside there. So it's a whole drill.
- 2:30Speaker 1: I like it. So like when it's all over, does
- 2:32Speaker 1: the money get recounted or just you just assume that
- 2:34Speaker 1: everything's there. It depends on the area. But do you
- 2:37Speaker 1: assume everything everything is there? Because there I mean there's
- 2:40Speaker 1: backup generators, So so the power is out. I mean,
- 2:44Speaker 1: even if it gets goes black entirely for like a second,
- 2:47Speaker 1: the backup generators come on. So then there's always areas.
- 2:50Speaker 1: I mean, it's never completely black, but there's areas that
- 2:55Speaker 1: maybe doesn't they we don't get network connectivity, which affects
- 2:58Speaker 1: a lot of the computers thing like that, So we
- 3:01Speaker 1: have a lot of redundancy, meaning when the power goes
- 3:04Speaker 1: out one area, use use power from another area to
- 3:07Speaker 1: try and get the essentials going. I think we're all
- 3:10Speaker 1: familiar with what redundancies are. Well, maybe they're not out there,
- 3:16Speaker 1: you know, I feel like yes or no. Three things
- 3:21Speaker 1: before you retire from the gaming industry, and you've been
- 3:24Speaker 1: in the gaming industry now for probably like I don't know,
- 3:27Speaker 1: almost thirty years, maybe even longer. You would like to
- 3:31Speaker 1: be in a casino when there is a heist. You
- 3:33Speaker 1: would like to uh be in a casino when what
- 3:39Speaker 1: else is sort of catastrophic yet not scary. I don't
- 3:45Speaker 1: know that I want to be in the casino door
- 3:46Speaker 1: in the heist. I wouldn't mind being in a movie
- 3:49Speaker 1: about a casino being hoisted. I don't know if I
- 3:52Speaker 1: actually want to be in it. I really, I guess
- 3:54Speaker 1: that's fair. Speaking of heist, I feel like I was
- 3:58Speaker 1: fleeced last weekend, Scooch, How did you guys? Do we
- 4:01Speaker 1: did fairly well? I mean two or three games carry
- 4:03Speaker 1: the whole weekend for us. There was a lot of
- 4:05Speaker 1: games we lost, but the games we won were pretty big.
- 4:08Speaker 1: Let me thank you won. What were the big games
- 4:11Speaker 1: that you won last week? And hold on, I'm gonna
- 4:12Speaker 1: look at the Action Network gap right now. You want
- 4:15Speaker 1: a lot of money on Tampa Bay for sure? That
- 4:18Speaker 1: was the biggest and then uh, I think, yeah, I
- 4:23Speaker 1: think that was your big game. I think that's where
- 4:25Speaker 1: you nailed it. Hmm. What else? The other big games
- 4:29Speaker 1: for us was Sunday Night game the Bears in the
- 4:32Speaker 1: pack um it would have been great if the Bears
- 4:36Speaker 1: held on to win the game out right, uh, to
- 4:38Speaker 1: kill some teasers and money line parlays, but getting the
- 4:42Speaker 1: cover was was pretty good for the house. Uh. A
- 4:46Speaker 1: couple of other games were bad for straight bets. The
- 4:49Speaker 1: wise guys kind of beat us up, but the general
- 4:52Speaker 1: public uh kind of went down. So a game like
- 4:55Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Browns, where the public were all
- 4:58Speaker 1: over the Pittsburgh Steelers even at the opening numbers of
- 5:02Speaker 1: six and five and a half, the Wise guys roll
- 5:06Speaker 1: over the Browns and that line got bent down to
- 5:08Speaker 1: the Steelers minus three by game time. So we lost
- 5:11Speaker 1: a lot of straight pet money to the sharp guys.
- 5:13Speaker 1: But it was a big game for for Parley's and
- 5:15Speaker 1: a big game for the house. And another game that
- 5:19Speaker 1: kind of similar to that was the Texans and the Patriots, uh,
- 5:25Speaker 1: but kind of opposite where the straight pet money went
- 5:28Speaker 1: down but the Parley money won. That's the game. There
- 5:32Speaker 1: were two games that it made me so sick to
- 5:35Speaker 1: my stomach that on Sunday afternoon, it's coming down to
- 5:39Speaker 1: the wire, I'm watching Red Zone and I am standing
- 5:45Speaker 1: in front of the television like two ft away and
- 5:48Speaker 1: I am in sort of an athletic stance in ready position,
- 5:52Speaker 1: like my knees are bent, my hands are on my knees.
- 5:56Speaker 1: I'm watching the Giants game so closely as if I'm
- 6:01Speaker 1: inside the football, and my eleven year old comes in
- 6:04Speaker 1: and he just looks at me, and he's like, what
- 6:07Speaker 1: is wrong with you? And I'm trying to explain to
- 6:10Speaker 1: him why I feel so sick to my stomach in
- 6:13Speaker 1: that moment, and how how like I remember from last
- 6:18Speaker 1: season what a bad feeling it is on red Zone
- 6:21Speaker 1: when they go to a game break and come back
- 6:24Speaker 1: and they're showing your game, and like it's almost never
- 6:27Speaker 1: a good thing when they're showing your game. It's like
- 6:29Speaker 1: it's like if the opponent has the ball and they're
- 6:32Speaker 1: showing your game, you feel like it's inevitably a touchdown.
- 6:35Speaker 1: And if your team has the ball and they're showing
- 6:36Speaker 1: the game, it's inevitably a turnover. And that's kind of
- 6:41Speaker 1: what I felt like for the Giants. Yeah, there was,
- 6:44Speaker 1: And I agree, And there's certain games that you're watching
- 6:48Speaker 1: and you're really into. And for me, I'm at work
- 6:53Speaker 1: and I'll have somebody coming into my office talking about
- 6:57Speaker 1: a particular situation, whether it's about guests, or about some comps,
- 7:01Speaker 1: or about some rooms where something's not working correctly, and
- 7:04Speaker 1: they're asking me a question, and as I'm about to answer,
- 7:08Speaker 1: I see an interception return for a touchdown, and the
- 7:11Speaker 1: expression on my face I just can't hide. But the
- 7:14Speaker 1: person that's asking me a question doesn't see that. I
- 7:16Speaker 1: don't always have the sound, so so they just see
- 7:20Speaker 1: my face kind of explode, and they're they're thinking it's
- 7:23Speaker 1: because of what they just told me that I have
- 7:26Speaker 1: to just tell no, no, no, relax, it's not you,
- 7:28Speaker 1: it's this game. Sorry. I get it. I get it.
- 7:31Speaker 1: Do you think you'll ever get sick of sweating it? Like?
- 7:34Speaker 1: I love the feeling so much, and I hate the
- 7:36Speaker 1: feeling so much, and it feels like obviously, I spend
- 7:41Speaker 1: most of my time when I'm betting on college football
- 7:44Speaker 1: in the NFL, and you know, I don't bet much baseball,
- 7:47Speaker 1: so and I'll bet a decent amount of NBA UM
- 7:51Speaker 1: more recently, you know, But like I sort of feel
- 7:56Speaker 1: like I'm out of practice a little bit. I'm out
- 7:59Speaker 1: of practice of feeling queasy. Yeah. Yeah, I I never
- 8:03Speaker 1: get you know, it's second nature. I don't even think
- 8:05Speaker 1: about it. Anymore. It just happens. And whether I want
- 8:08Speaker 1: to sweat the games or don't want to sweat the games,
- 8:11Speaker 1: it just feels like I just automatically am even if
- 8:14Speaker 1: I'm not watching the game. I'm watching it the scores
- 8:18Speaker 1: on the on the phone or wherever wherever I am,
- 8:21Speaker 1: or if I have it on a live game cast
- 8:23Speaker 1: on a PC. But I'm constantly just watching the scoring
- 8:28Speaker 1: if not watching the actual games. So I don't know.
- 8:31Speaker 1: It has nothing to do with wanting to or not anymore.
- 8:34Speaker 1: I will tell you you know, I work at the
- 8:36Speaker 1: Action Network, as you may or may not know, and
- 8:38Speaker 1: we have this new feature on our app, win Probability,
- 8:42Speaker 1: So it measures the probability that your bet is going
- 8:44Speaker 1: to cash or not cash, and it changes in real
- 8:48Speaker 1: time with every practically every play on the field and
- 8:52Speaker 1: every series that happens on the field. And so I
- 8:55Speaker 1: spend all Sunday just checking this thing as if it
- 9:00Speaker 1: is my e KG, like and like as as if
- 9:03Speaker 1: my my breath is connected to it um and it
- 9:07Speaker 1: is exhausting. I love that. Yeah, so we have you know,
- 9:11Speaker 1: we have live in game betting on our VOYD be
- 9:15Speaker 1: Connected Sports app as well on every every on every game,
- 9:21Speaker 1: and I'm doing the same thing where it's it's it's
- 9:25Speaker 1: robo scooch, it's it's booking the games. It's automatic on
- 9:29Speaker 1: every play, every interception, and you know, the betting gets
- 9:32Speaker 1: suspended and then the new price appears. Um, And I've
- 9:36Speaker 1: got to be honest with you, I've got to get
- 9:38Speaker 1: used to this because it runs contrary to kind of
- 9:42Speaker 1: some of the booking that we've done over the last
- 9:44Speaker 1: twenty five years. And I'll give you an example. When
- 9:47Speaker 1: a sharp guy bets a number word, we typically move
- 9:51Speaker 1: that number in that direction so that the next guy
- 9:54Speaker 1: lays an unfavorable number after him. Right, But with this,
- 10:00Speaker 1: somebody can lay minus four and a half for the limit,
- 10:03Speaker 1: and the next price that appears maybe minus four or
- 10:07Speaker 1: minus three and a half. Because now it just depends
- 10:09Speaker 1: on how the game is going in right, really doesn't
- 10:11Speaker 1: have anything to do not it doesn't have as much
- 10:14Speaker 1: to do with the money coming in as it does
- 10:16Speaker 1: just a game situation now and it changes on every play.
- 10:20Speaker 1: It's crazy, I agree with you. And it's uh. It's
- 10:23Speaker 1: going to only get more radical as supports betting becomes
- 10:26Speaker 1: more prominent in more places and more states around the country. Uh.
- 10:30Speaker 1: Speaking of wise guys, I was one of those who
- 10:33Speaker 1: was on the Texans at plus six and a half.
- 10:35Speaker 1: You pointed out in our scoot roulette, which we will
- 10:39Speaker 1: discuss later in the show, when we were going to
- 10:40Speaker 1: make our gun to your head picks, the picks that
- 10:43Speaker 1: we have to make, the picks that we are we
- 10:46Speaker 1: are betting our lives on. Um. I had the Texans,
- 10:51Speaker 1: you had the Bears. Kudos to you, my bookmaking friend. Uh,
- 10:56Speaker 1: I'm crushed. You reminded me that you never make any
- 10:59Speaker 1: money betting to Bill Belichick. And yet it's time to
- 11:02Speaker 1: get to the games because I am so frea contempted
- 11:05Speaker 1: by the Jaguars as two point underdogs. So let me
- 11:09Speaker 1: ask you this, Bob Scucci, as we ease our way in,
- 11:13Speaker 1: as we do a smooth, molefulous transition from the preamble
- 11:19Speaker 1: to the main event, that's the first game to talk about. Okay, Yeah,
- 11:23Speaker 1: that's the that's the big match rematch from from last year,
- 11:26Speaker 1: the big game. Uh. And like you said, you do,
- 11:29Speaker 1: you don't make a living betton against New England. And
- 11:32Speaker 1: this is one of those situations where, uh, we know
- 11:35Speaker 1: we're gonna get a lot of parlay money on New
- 11:37Speaker 1: England a short road favorite, any short road favorite, we
- 11:39Speaker 1: usually we typically get more more money on that short
- 11:43Speaker 1: road favorite. Uh. In this matchup, though, I will say
- 11:48Speaker 1: that the public does believe in this Jacksonville team. So
- 11:53Speaker 1: just looking at the at the ticket account, it's definitely
- 11:56Speaker 1: skewed towards the Patriots, just not as much as I
- 11:59Speaker 1: thought it would be. Uh, it's about four to one,
- 12:02Speaker 1: and I thought it would be somewhere in the neighborhood
- 12:04Speaker 1: of seven or eight to one. But we're still gonna
- 12:07Speaker 1: end up needing the Jaguars in this There's not enough
- 12:10Speaker 1: in the point spread. If the point spread was three,
- 12:13Speaker 1: that that that extra point that gets you to the
- 12:15Speaker 1: field goal would would be the kind of deciding factor
- 12:18Speaker 1: for for the public to want to take the Jags
- 12:21Speaker 1: in this one. But I don't think the Jaguars were
- 12:24Speaker 1: impressive enough against the Giants to warrant going basically at
- 12:29Speaker 1: a pick up game against the Patriots. So, UM, We're
- 12:34Speaker 1: we're careful in this one. We don't want to go
- 12:35Speaker 1: too high. We don't want to give him the three
- 12:37Speaker 1: on the Jaguars, but I have a feeling will be
- 12:40Speaker 1: at three by game time. I have already bet the
- 12:43Speaker 1: Jaguars and plus two. You think I made a mistake,
- 12:46Speaker 1: You think I pulled the trigger too early. I do.
- 12:48Speaker 1: I don't think it's coming down. I can't. I can't
- 12:51Speaker 1: see the sharp guys betting this turning the game around.
- 12:56Speaker 1: Barring an injury. Uh, the only injury right now is
- 12:59Speaker 1: is for and that's for the for Jacksonville then, and
- 13:02Speaker 1: he's listed as questionable right now. So if if anything, um,
- 13:07Speaker 1: you know, if we know that he's out, if anything,
- 13:09Speaker 1: the line goes up even more. But I just see
- 13:14Speaker 1: the public driving this number up to at least two
- 13:16Speaker 1: and a half and by game time maybe three. The
- 13:19Speaker 1: Patriots are so frustrating because they blow every axiom out
- 13:22Speaker 1: of the water. Right, you are not supposed to bet
- 13:25Speaker 1: on short road favorites. That is just that that is
- 13:29Speaker 1: historically losing proposition. And that's there's a couple of games
- 13:32Speaker 1: this weekend that screw me up because I'm thinking about
- 13:35Speaker 1: that percentage and for some reason, betting the first couple
- 13:39Speaker 1: of weeks is so freaking hard, man, Like you just
- 13:42Speaker 1: don't know these teams, and so um, I've already gone
- 13:46Speaker 1: in on the Jacks and now you're just making me
- 13:48Speaker 1: feel bad about it. Um, is that going to be
- 13:52Speaker 1: your scrutual epic? You can't, you can't talk about it yet,
- 13:57Speaker 1: not anymore. Yeah, Um, They're is just not enough value there,
- 14:01Speaker 1: you know, one point two points. Yeah, it's a it's
- 14:05Speaker 1: a home dog, but it's not a significant enough home
- 14:07Speaker 1: dog that that getting to that extra point is really
- 14:10Speaker 1: the difference. I feel like pulling a Tommy Boy, you know,
- 14:12Speaker 1: like in the movie Tommy Boy where he just starts
- 14:14Speaker 1: banging his head and pulling his hair. Gosh, so stupid. Yeah, yeah,
- 14:22Speaker 1: right now I've done I've done that all right. The
- 14:25Speaker 1: next game I want to talk about is the Los
- 14:27Speaker 1: Angeles Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals. Very interesting game
- 14:31Speaker 1: to me, Scooch. I have bet already the Arizona Cardinals
- 14:36Speaker 1: as thirteen point underdogs in this game. I feel like
- 14:41Speaker 1: in the Action Network power rankings this game, the delta
- 14:45Speaker 1: between where we think the spread should be and where
- 14:47Speaker 1: it is is about three three and a half points. Um,
- 14:53Speaker 1: it's way inflated. Because the Rams just kicked the crap
- 14:56Speaker 1: out of the Raiders and the Cardinals were so thoroughly destroyed.
- 15:02Speaker 1: I don't think you're ever going to get a better
- 15:03Speaker 1: value on the Cardinals than you are this weekend. It
- 15:07Speaker 1: still scares me, but this is where like you just
- 15:09Speaker 1: don't know anything the first couple of weeks. Right, So
- 15:11Speaker 1: I'm gonna play. I'm gonna play the value. I'm gonna
- 15:14Speaker 1: play where I know bookmakers are trying to make me
- 15:17Speaker 1: pay a higher price. Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean
- 15:21Speaker 1: what I do is I make the lines for the
- 15:23Speaker 1: following week's games before Sunday's games, and then just from there.
- 15:27Speaker 1: So this this line was about ten prior to both
- 15:30Speaker 1: of the games on Sunday. So the Rams performance Monday
- 15:36Speaker 1: night and then the Cardinals performance or lack of a
- 15:40Speaker 1: performance adjusted both lines by by a point and a half,
- 15:44Speaker 1: maybe close to two points. You don't want to take
- 15:46Speaker 1: too much out of the first week, I mean that
- 15:48Speaker 1: that's kind of the key. Is how much really to
- 15:50Speaker 1: adjust off of week one and week two? There's so
- 15:53Speaker 1: many factors you have to start wondering. The teams that
- 15:57Speaker 1: didn't play a lot of their starters during the preseas
- 16:00Speaker 1: and rested a lot of their players, how many games
- 16:02Speaker 1: does it take them to get into their prime form? Uh.
- 16:05Speaker 1: The teams that maybe have a lot of players that
- 16:07Speaker 1: are a little older. Uh, do they wear themselves out
- 16:10Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter because they're not in the best
- 16:13Speaker 1: of condition yet, or I mean, there's so many, so
- 16:15Speaker 1: many different factors that you don't want to over adjust
- 16:18Speaker 1: off of one performance, even if it's a really bad
- 16:20Speaker 1: for performance, because then you get in a situation where
- 16:23Speaker 1: you're you're just bouncing back and forth these huge points wings.
- 16:26Speaker 1: So we we tend to be slow with the adjustments.
- 16:29Speaker 1: But this is a case where the one team was
- 16:31Speaker 1: adjusted higher and one lower, So you do have that big,
- 16:34Speaker 1: uh difference. And I see this line coming down. I
- 16:37Speaker 1: I see this line. Actually, most of the wise guys
- 16:40Speaker 1: will take a double digit underdog regardless of who the
- 16:43Speaker 1: team is, but I think in this one you will see, uh,
- 16:46Speaker 1: this line coming down a little bit. So why did
- 16:48Speaker 1: you overadjust? Why not just sort of public marketing, basically,
- 16:52Speaker 1: because we want to attract that money. I want to
- 16:54Speaker 1: be in a situation like I was with the Steelers
- 16:56Speaker 1: and the Browns. I know the public was on the Steelers,
- 16:59Speaker 1: so we had acted some straight pet money on the Browns.
- 17:02Speaker 1: Sometimes you win those games, sometimes you lose in terms
- 17:04Speaker 1: of the straight bets, But I don't mind being on
- 17:07Speaker 1: the same side as the straight bets as long as
- 17:09Speaker 1: they don't overcome the amount of parlays. That the amount
- 17:12Speaker 1: of money that's on the parlays. So in other words,
- 17:14Speaker 1: I don't mind taking a lot of Cardinal money to
- 17:16Speaker 1: offset all the public money I'm going to get on
- 17:19Speaker 1: the Rams and parlays. I just don't want to take
- 17:21Speaker 1: more on the Cardinals than I take on the Rams parlays.
- 17:25Speaker 1: But do you think the Cardinals are going to be
- 17:27Speaker 1: a side that anyone in the public takes. There's gonna
- 17:29Speaker 1: be all wise guy money. It's all it's all wise guys. No, No,
- 17:33Speaker 1: no one in the public. I don't know, no if
- 17:35Speaker 1: anyone that's in the room and any of the sports
- 17:37Speaker 1: books here that's coming in saying, yeah, the Cardinals are
- 17:39Speaker 1: just going to beat the Rams or you know, because
- 17:42Speaker 1: that's the first thing they do is they say can
- 17:44Speaker 1: the can the team win outright? And then they look
- 17:46Speaker 1: at the points bread and said, okay, well maybe they
- 17:48Speaker 1: can cover the points, but they want a team that
- 17:50Speaker 1: can at least have a shot to win the game.
- 17:52Speaker 1: And then if you're getting the points, then then that's
- 17:54Speaker 1: a bonus. That's really the only time I see the
- 17:57Speaker 1: public betting on underdogs. That's why the public generally just
- 18:00Speaker 1: bets on the favorites because they know they're going to
- 18:03Speaker 1: win the game. Go ahead, I want you to finish.
- 18:05Speaker 1: I was cutting you go ahead? No, go ahead, come
- 18:07Speaker 1: you go ahead. I'm just saying that's why the public
- 18:13Speaker 1: loves because what are we on a delay? There? I
- 18:22Speaker 1: was just growing with you. Okay, al right, next game,
- 18:27Speaker 1: here we go my beloved Cincinnati Bengals, who totally covered
- 18:32Speaker 1: for me against the Colts. That was a game that
- 18:34Speaker 1: I desperately needed, and they are currently That game is
- 18:39Speaker 1: pick against Baltimore. So the money while the uh, the
- 18:43Speaker 1: looking at the action app here, the betting tickets have
- 18:45Speaker 1: come in on the Ravens, but it looks like the
- 18:48Speaker 1: wise guy money has come in on the Cincinnati Bengals
- 18:52Speaker 1: because that line has moved in their direction exactly. Now,
- 18:55Speaker 1: this is another game that the Bengals probably would have
- 18:58Speaker 1: been a little bit bigger of a short favorite prior
- 19:02Speaker 1: to both Sunday's performances. The Bengals got the win, but uh,
- 19:06Speaker 1: they didn't look great in that win. I think too
- 19:09Speaker 1: long eighty yard fumble recoveries for touchdowns was really the
- 19:14Speaker 1: difference in that game that the Colts were able to
- 19:16Speaker 1: move the ball. The Bengals defense didn't look stellar. Uh,
- 19:20Speaker 1: Dalton didn't look great. Yeah, they got the win, but
- 19:23Speaker 1: you know it was against the Colts have a solid wind,
- 19:26Speaker 1: but not enough to really uh persuade a lot of
- 19:29Speaker 1: the public that they're gonna now beat the Ravens. So, uh,
- 19:34Speaker 1: this is the public is all over the Ravens in
- 19:36Speaker 1: this one. And we did adjust a little bit, and
- 19:38Speaker 1: we're actually at the Ravens minus one. So I know
- 19:40Speaker 1: that there are picks out there, but uh, we have
- 19:43Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more uh money and parlays than
- 19:47Speaker 1: than other places. We're at the Ravens minus one. So
- 19:50Speaker 1: what would you do in this situation? I I like
- 19:53Speaker 1: the Ravens here, I I really am not. Uh, I
- 19:57Speaker 1: didn't see I know it was hard to really determine
- 20:00Speaker 1: how good Baltimore looked because they were playing a really
- 20:04Speaker 1: bad Bill's team. But I was high on this Ravens
- 20:08Speaker 1: team coming into the season, not real high, but I
- 20:12Speaker 1: just I think they were gonna be just quite a
- 20:14Speaker 1: bit better than last year. So um, and I don't
- 20:18Speaker 1: see the Bengals as a team that's improving from last year.
- 20:23Speaker 1: This next game is so hard, so hard. I mean, boy,
- 20:28Speaker 1: you couldn't get two teams that look more opposite unless
- 20:32Speaker 1: you were betting the Rams and the Cardinals. Kansas City
- 20:35Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh. Kansas City's visiting Pittsburgh. Ton of tickets coming
- 20:39Speaker 1: in on Kansas City and not surprising. Uh, they are
- 20:42Speaker 1: five point underdogs against the Steelers at home. This is
- 20:48Speaker 1: the same thing to me. This is like the same philosophy.
- 20:51Speaker 1: Like you had one team that looked so bad in
- 20:54Speaker 1: week one and one team that looked like world beaters
- 20:57Speaker 1: in week one against the team everybody thought was going
- 21:00Speaker 1: to be the best team in the Chargers and one
- 21:02Speaker 1: of the better teams and the Chargers. It's like you
- 21:06Speaker 1: almost have to bet the Steelers just because of the regression. Yeah.
- 21:13Speaker 1: This so yeah. We talked about it a little bit
- 21:16Speaker 1: in the last couple of weeks that I feel like
- 21:18Speaker 1: the Steelers there were probably not going to be as
- 21:21Speaker 1: good as as most people fought this year, and the
- 21:24Speaker 1: ten and a half games seemed like an awful lot
- 21:26Speaker 1: in terms of the over under for them to overcome.
- 21:29Speaker 1: I really did like I was high on the Chiefs.
- 21:31Speaker 1: If you remember last week, I was really high on
- 21:33Speaker 1: this team. Uh, we have a great, great staff, coaching staff.
- 21:38Speaker 1: And Uh the question mark was how Mahomes was gonna play?
- 21:42Speaker 1: So he answered that that question for me. Last week
- 21:45Speaker 1: I like them again. Uh this week I was I
- 21:49Speaker 1: thought five is that that dead number? Uh. We were
- 21:52Speaker 1: debating on whether to open five and a half and
- 21:54Speaker 1: four and a half, and we really don't like opening five,
- 21:57Speaker 1: so I opened five. Uh minus ol five is where
- 22:00Speaker 1: I'm at now. So we're making them lay minus one
- 22:03Speaker 1: fifteen on Kansas City. But I'm I'm real close to
- 22:05Speaker 1: going down to four and a half. I think it
- 22:08Speaker 1: just took one week. The public was not on the
- 22:10Speaker 1: Chiefs last week. We actually needed the Chiefs. But I
- 22:13Speaker 1: think the public's all over the Chiefs this week. And
- 22:16Speaker 1: so the fact that I'm not getting early Steelers money
- 22:19Speaker 1: now tells me that the line is gonna go one
- 22:22Speaker 1: way and it's gonna be down. So that tells me
- 22:25Speaker 1: that I want nothing to do with the Chiefs right now.
- 22:27Speaker 1: Maybe by Sunday, let's say, how loo can this go? Hello?
- 22:32Speaker 1: Can you go? You know how you might like the Steelers? Yeah?
- 22:37Speaker 1: Maybe if it got to like I don't know, you
- 22:40Speaker 1: keep taking money if it gets to four, gets to
- 22:42Speaker 1: three and a half. Actually, I wouldn't like the Steelers
- 22:44Speaker 1: unless it got to three. And here's a game. I
- 22:47Speaker 1: know the Steelers kind of laid an egg there in
- 22:49Speaker 1: the second half of that game. I wouldn't put too
- 22:52Speaker 1: much into that game. Again, you're trying not to over
- 22:56Speaker 1: just on the on the first couple of weeks. I mean,
- 22:59Speaker 1: there was a driving rain in that game. There was
- 23:01Speaker 1: all the distractions with Levy on Bell being in, being out. Uh.
- 23:06Speaker 1: I just I think coming back this week, I do
- 23:10Speaker 1: think they bounced back. You're not going to see two
- 23:12Speaker 1: real bad performances in a row. So if it gets lower,
- 23:16Speaker 1: I might go with the Steelers. That might be against you. Yeah, yeah, no,
- 23:20Speaker 1: And I want to really have a side, so you
- 23:21Speaker 1: wouldn't be against me. But I'm just kind of making
- 23:24Speaker 1: a case for both sides here, Scooch. I have to
- 23:26Speaker 1: be against somebody. It's how I live. I live for
- 23:30Speaker 1: for adversary of the relationships and conflict. Yeah, if you're
- 23:34Speaker 1: not with me, you're against me. Get on fucking board, Scooch. Okay, alright,
- 23:42Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts at the Washington Redskins. The Washington Redskins who
- 23:46Speaker 1: beat up on the hapless Arizona Cardinals. Are that I've
- 23:50Speaker 1: already bet to cover a two touchdown spread. Are six
- 23:54Speaker 1: point favorites against the Colts. Yeah, and and here again
- 24:00Speaker 1: just the case I kind of made with the Colts
- 24:02Speaker 1: in that game against the Bengals. They were able to
- 24:04Speaker 1: move the ball. It was Andrew Luck's first game out
- 24:08Speaker 1: in a while. I I don't think he played that bad.
- 24:12Speaker 1: I think he looked okay. So I think there's this
- 24:15Speaker 1: is a lot of points where we're taking into account
- 24:17Speaker 1: how good the Redskins looked. So we're taken into account
- 24:20Speaker 1: the public who we think they're gonna come in on.
- 24:23Speaker 1: So that's why this line is as high as it is.
- 24:25Speaker 1: But it's a little it's a little inflated. And I
- 24:27Speaker 1: think the Colts plus the five and a half is
- 24:29Speaker 1: the play here. I do too. The thing that worries
- 24:33Speaker 1: me is the Colts defense is just so bad, like
- 24:38Speaker 1: it's dreadful. And look, Andrew Luck was amazing and I
- 24:42Speaker 1: definitely was so nervous when he had the ball at
- 24:45Speaker 1: the end then they were going to drive and score
- 24:48Speaker 1: a touchdown. I didn't think the Bengals will be able
- 24:50Speaker 1: to stop him like he looked amazing and so um
- 24:53Speaker 1: he looked like Andrew Luck. You know, you forget how
- 24:55Speaker 1: sort of Clutchy really was. Um, I don't know. I
- 24:59Speaker 1: didn't wach enough of the Redskins Cardinals game to know, like,
- 25:03Speaker 1: how did the Redskins win that game? What did they
- 25:05Speaker 1: do that the Cardinals were so bad at that the
- 25:09Speaker 1: Cults might be better at. That sort of gives people
- 25:12Speaker 1: the wrong perception. Yeah, and I and I will agree
- 25:15Speaker 1: with you even as not. I wasn't impressed with the
- 25:18Speaker 1: Bengals offense against the Colts, but the Colts defense did
- 25:21Speaker 1: look pretty bad and that that does concern me a
- 25:24Speaker 1: little bit. Um, I think was more of Washington's defense
- 25:28Speaker 1: against Arizona and Arizona's lack of offense that kind of
- 25:32Speaker 1: struck me more so than you know, thinking that Washington
- 25:36Speaker 1: is just explosive on offense. You didn't really help me there,
- 25:40Speaker 1: not at all. You didn't give me the you know
- 25:43Speaker 1: what you did there. You rejected the premise of the question.
- 25:47Speaker 1: I asked you a very specific question, what did the
- 25:50Speaker 1: car what did the Redskins do to win that game?
- 25:54Speaker 1: And uh, what you told me was that, Um, the
- 25:58Speaker 1: Colts defense defense isn't very good, and that the Cardinals
- 26:01Speaker 1: weren't very good. Well, that's what Washington did to beat Arizona.
- 26:05Speaker 1: They their defense, their defense was was good. Arizona's defense
- 26:09Speaker 1: offense was terrible. That listen, that is the kind of
- 26:16Speaker 1: insight that has so many people downloaded this podcast. They
- 26:21Speaker 1: can't get that commentary. You can't get that anywhere. You
- 26:25Speaker 1: can only get that if you're talking to the bookmaker
- 26:27Speaker 1: to the world, Bob Scucci. How's your business still still growing?
- 26:31Speaker 1: Still flying? Have you open any more sports books in
- 26:33Speaker 1: any more states? Not yet. We're working on it, closer,
- 26:37Speaker 1: working on it. You want to do a deal right
- 26:39Speaker 1: now in the podcast? What kind of deal? I don't know.
- 26:42Speaker 1: Let's figure something out. All right, all right, I can
- 26:46Speaker 1: open it. I can open a sports book for you. Okay,
- 26:50Speaker 1: I believe you can. You're pretty sharp, you said, alright,
- 26:56Speaker 1: Philadelphia is visiting Tampa Bay. Oh boy, this is a
- 27:01Speaker 1: great number to talk about what this would have been
- 27:03Speaker 1: before the games were played on Sunday. This game would
- 27:07Speaker 1: have been six six. Yeah, that's exactly what we made
- 27:12Speaker 1: six Lescano. Yeah, he was going to remember him, he was.
- 27:16Speaker 1: I liked him. Now it's three. Yeah, And here's what
- 27:20Speaker 1: I think before you get into it, before we get
- 27:23Speaker 1: into it with your the Eagles are good and the
- 27:26Speaker 1: Bucks are terrible. Analysis, here's my feeling. You're gonna get
- 27:31Speaker 1: a craploaded action on the Eagles, and this is gonna
- 27:35Speaker 1: be one of those games where the Bucks are a
- 27:38Speaker 1: short home dog and it's going to be the action
- 27:42Speaker 1: coming in the Eagles, and I am going to be
- 27:45Speaker 1: forced forced to choose the Bucks based on all the
- 27:49Speaker 1: action coming in on the Eagles. That's what's going to happen. Yeah. Yeah,
- 27:55Speaker 1: the public is not. It's it's incredible that that Nick
- 27:59Speaker 1: Foles in the Thills can go on and win a
- 28:01Speaker 1: Super Bowl, come back the next year, and still the
- 28:06Speaker 1: public is just not completely sold. They would love to
- 28:09Speaker 1: see Carson Wentz back in the game. They they're just
- 28:12Speaker 1: knowing that Nick Foles is the quarterback just doesn't completely
- 28:16Speaker 1: uh convince them. So I don't think it's gonna be Eagles.
- 28:20Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be probably double. I think, in
- 28:24Speaker 1: other words, just like a two to one ratio of
- 28:26Speaker 1: bets on the Eagles to the Buccaneers before the Buccaneers
- 28:29Speaker 1: beat the Saints. I think you're right, it probably would
- 28:31Speaker 1: have been a five to one ratio. But uh, people
- 28:35Speaker 1: remember what they've seen most recently, and the Buccaneers really
- 28:40Speaker 1: looked good. Their offense look good. Uh, they played, they
- 28:44Speaker 1: beat a team that most people thought, we're gonna go
- 28:46Speaker 1: deep into the playoffs if not win the NFC, and uh,
- 28:51Speaker 1: and that's gonna stick in a lot of the public's mind.
- 28:53Speaker 1: The the Sharp guys will probably be on the Eagles,
- 28:56Speaker 1: which is rare that they'd be on a favorite. But
- 28:58Speaker 1: I agree with you because is there's more value in
- 29:01Speaker 1: the number. If a week ago you could have, uh,
- 29:04Speaker 1: you know, you would have had to lay minus six
- 29:06Speaker 1: and now you're only laying minus three. Um, I think
- 29:10Speaker 1: the Sharp guys will probably lay this number right now
- 29:14Speaker 1: according to the Action Network app, about the bets are
- 29:18Speaker 1: on the Eagles how much? Okay, I'm I'm seeing probably
- 29:24Speaker 1: about a two and a half to one ratio Eagles
- 29:27Speaker 1: to Buccaneers. Maybe we need to get the BOYD Gaming
- 29:30Speaker 1: properties into the Action Network app so we can track
- 29:33Speaker 1: those lines specifically. That's the deal you and I ought
- 29:35Speaker 1: to do. Say you're already trying to open another sports book,
- 29:38Speaker 1: look at that. Gonna work on that after the show.
- 29:41Speaker 1: After the show, why don't you connect me to your people,
- 29:46Speaker 1: and I'll connect you to my people, and they can
- 29:49Speaker 1: have a preliminary conversation. They can send fifteen to sixteen
- 29:53Speaker 1: emails and eventually, uh tie it back together with me
- 29:57Speaker 1: needing to talk to you. Okay, that sounds about right,
- 30:02Speaker 1: And by the time we get to January, you and
- 30:05Speaker 1: I will be uh having a conversation about how we're
- 30:10Speaker 1: going to try to paper this deal for next football season. Wow. Boy,
- 30:14Speaker 1: that mine's always spending, isn't it, When we could just
- 30:17Speaker 1: paper this deal right now and let's just do it.
- 30:21Speaker 1: Let's just get the deal done, alright. Alright, So here's
- 30:23Speaker 1: the thing. I'm gonna have to bet on Tampa. No,
- 30:26Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it. I'm gonna avoid this game.
- 30:28Speaker 1: Forget that I said that. Wow, second guest in yourself,
- 30:32Speaker 1: that's not that doesn't sound like a wise guy. I'm
- 30:35Speaker 1: lacking a little bit of confidence, right, Yeah, you're just
- 30:39Speaker 1: flip flopping. Well, the week one like just screwed the
- 30:44Speaker 1: funk out of me. Like I'm not even kidding like
- 30:47Speaker 1: those freaking Giants, those freaking Texans, the Titans. Are you
- 30:51Speaker 1: kidding me? The Titans? No? No, no. Also, and I've
- 30:57Speaker 1: said this before. I said this with with Schwartz and
- 31:00Speaker 1: Laduca on the Favorites that we aired on Monday. Um,
- 31:05Speaker 1: this roughing the passer penalty is going to give me
- 31:09Speaker 1: a heart attack. Yeah, a full scale heart attack. It
- 31:12Speaker 1: is gonna cost people so much money this year. So
- 31:15Speaker 1: many drives are going to be extended because some defensive
- 31:18Speaker 1: lineman throws all of his body weight onto a quarterback.
- 31:22Speaker 1: How are you supposed to stop yourself? This is the
- 31:24Speaker 1: stupidest rule in the history of rules. It's been getting
- 31:29Speaker 1: worse and worse every year. You know, you can't hit
- 31:32Speaker 1: him high. Then you can't hit him low and take
- 31:34Speaker 1: him out his legs in front, and you can't, you know,
- 31:37Speaker 1: lead with the helmet, you can't. You basically can't touch
- 31:40Speaker 1: him anymore. But now, if you're rushing the passer and
- 31:43Speaker 1: your momentum carries you into it, I mean, it's a flag.
- 31:47Speaker 1: So now you have to somehow stop your momentum. Uh.
- 31:51Speaker 1: You know, I've seen guys like throwing up their hands
- 31:53Speaker 1: knowing that, hey, there's gonna be a collision here. I
- 31:55Speaker 1: can't stop myself, but so so the only answer is
- 31:59Speaker 1: to just slow down the rush, which means you're going
- 32:01Speaker 1: to give him more time in the pocket, and there's
- 32:03Speaker 1: gonna be like you said, uh, scoring tribes extended and
- 32:07Speaker 1: and more scoring and and so we're gonna see these
- 32:10Speaker 1: these totals go go higher and higher. You can't even
- 32:13Speaker 1: hit him with the hind no anywhere just and then, uh,
- 32:19Speaker 1: you know, if you're driving him to the ground, I
- 32:21Speaker 1: mean let you gotta let up. And you can't swing,
- 32:23Speaker 1: and you can't you can't do anything with them. The
- 32:27Speaker 1: New York Jets are now three point favorites over the
- 32:29Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. What are you doing? What are you doing?
- 32:34Speaker 1: So you already saw the money coming in on the Dolphins. Huh, Jesus,
- 32:40Speaker 1: you are you know, gusking to get beaten on that game.
- 32:44Speaker 1: So three, I think three is a solid number. We
- 32:46Speaker 1: know the wise as are gonna take the three which
- 32:49Speaker 1: they already have. And uh again the public season remembers
- 32:53Speaker 1: what they see, they've seen last and uh they saw
- 32:56Speaker 1: the Jets beat beat the Lions. I agree with the
- 33:00Speaker 1: I think I think we made this a little too high.
- 33:02Speaker 1: We're gonna be quick to move it. So the liability
- 33:04Speaker 1: we already have now on the Dolphins, Uh, we're not
- 33:08Speaker 1: going to double down on it. We're just gonna, uh,
- 33:11Speaker 1: we're gonna move this very quickly. It'll probably close Jets
- 33:14Speaker 1: Jets one and a half. Jeff Jets too, might even
- 33:17Speaker 1: move it right now. To be honest with you, line change,
- 33:21Speaker 1: line change, line change, we're going to two and a half.
- 33:24Speaker 1: You know, we have new producers of the podcast. They
- 33:26Speaker 1: don't know that when there's a line move on the podcast,
- 33:30Speaker 1: we we celebrate it like it's a big deal. It's
- 33:33Speaker 1: like news has happened. They're looking at me like like
- 33:36Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm talking about it, but like
- 33:39Speaker 1: Scoochs just changed a line, Like we need to celebrate this,
- 33:42Speaker 1: We need to acknowledge that, like real, something real happened
- 33:47Speaker 1: on this podcast. Just now. Another justification for the line change.
- 33:52Speaker 1: When we when we lose on a team the previous
- 33:55Speaker 1: week and and feel like the line was not it
- 33:59Speaker 1: was a little soft line, then will make an adjustment.
- 34:02Speaker 1: So the Dolphins last week, even though it was a
- 34:05Speaker 1: nine hour game or whatever it was from that weather delay. Uh,
- 34:08Speaker 1: we were on the wrong side of that one. So
- 34:10Speaker 1: we're not We're not going to get me twice on it.
- 34:13Speaker 1: I do want to make one change. Yeah, I've I've
- 34:17Speaker 1: railed on the Southeastern teams and they're uh their uniforms. Yeah,
- 34:22Speaker 1: I love the Titans new helmets, really love them. I
- 34:26Speaker 1: love that, like deep navy blue color. I could go
- 34:30Speaker 1: for that. I'm not sure which teams I've seen that
- 34:34Speaker 1: have the kind of crevices in the helmets. I kind
- 34:37Speaker 1: of like that. Look. They're more like a have you
- 34:39Speaker 1: seen these? They're not smooth helmets? Is that? Is that
- 34:41Speaker 1: all the teams now wearing those kind of helmets that
- 34:45Speaker 1: are not exactly smooth? Have you you know what I'm
- 34:48Speaker 1: talking about? Or am I just Lou the producer is
- 34:51Speaker 1: not in his head he knows what you're talking about.
- 34:53Speaker 1: I have no idea what you're talking about. Yeah, they're
- 34:55Speaker 1: kind of they're kind of cool. They look like kind
- 34:58Speaker 1: of a new type of war war game video game
- 35:02Speaker 1: that they're that they have on their They're kind of
- 35:05Speaker 1: new new look. I like it because football needs more
- 35:07Speaker 1: references to violence. Uh. The Los Angeles Chargers are seven
- 35:12Speaker 1: and a half point favorites over the Buffalo Bills. Um
- 35:15Speaker 1: hard not a like this is gonna be one of
- 35:19Speaker 1: those games, hud. So here's what I'm Here's what I'm saying.
- 35:24Speaker 1: Like game, huge, huge, road favorite. Huge. What do I
- 35:32Speaker 1: do about this? I'm gonna have to bet the Buffalo Bills.
- 35:35Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to bet the Buffalo Bills as seven
- 35:39Speaker 1: and a half point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers.
- 35:44Speaker 1: Are you getting that money? Are you getting that money?
- 35:46Speaker 1: Are you getting that money? In the Bills? I am.
- 35:49Speaker 1: I'm at seven and a half and uh and they're
- 35:51Speaker 1: taking the plus seven and a half and they can
- 35:54Speaker 1: take it all day long because is probably concerned privative.
- 36:00Speaker 1: I mean, it's just a bet against the Bills for
- 36:03Speaker 1: the public. There's absolutely no way the public and they're
- 36:06Speaker 1: not even sure which quarterback they're gonna get. We talked
- 36:09Speaker 1: a little bit about Peterman last week. He left right
- 36:13Speaker 1: off from from last year with the with the five
- 36:16Speaker 1: interceptions that I mean that that was bad. And so
- 36:19Speaker 1: to bring in a rookie quarterback again, you know, for
- 36:23Speaker 1: for this game, Um, the Charges still have a good defense.
- 36:27Speaker 1: You you know, they played a tough team. You can't
- 36:30Speaker 1: just say that they lost last week and so they're
- 36:32Speaker 1: not as good as you thought they were. That the
- 36:34Speaker 1: Chargers still a good team. It's a lot of points
- 36:36Speaker 1: to lay on the on the road, but I think
- 36:39Speaker 1: I'll just take all the bills money here. Maybe I'll
- 36:42Speaker 1: pass on that game. Okay, all right, do you have
- 36:46Speaker 1: Tennessee Houston on the border? Is not on the board
- 36:48Speaker 1: right now because we don't know about Mary, We don't
- 36:50Speaker 1: know about Mariota. We don't know about DeShawn Watson. Uh,
- 36:55Speaker 1: I mean both of them. It could be one two
- 36:57Speaker 1: or either of them, so we we need more information.
- 37:00Speaker 1: Pass Carolina Atlanta. Atlanta is a five and a half
- 37:04Speaker 1: point favorite, but um, they've had some injuries and I
- 37:10Speaker 1: feel like, why did you make the line the way
- 37:13Speaker 1: it is? And who's betting which way? This was a real,
- 37:16Speaker 1: real tough one because we have Atlanta rated pretty high. Uh.
- 37:22Speaker 1: And then we adjusted them slightly after after game one,
- 37:25Speaker 1: but but after their first game, but but not much.
- 37:29Speaker 1: And Carolina, Uh, their defense looked looked great. We made
- 37:34Speaker 1: a slight adjustment on Carolina. I think we're a little
- 37:37Speaker 1: I thought we were going to be high when I
- 37:39Speaker 1: when I hung this number. Uh at uh we hung
- 37:42Speaker 1: it at four and a half. I thought we were
- 37:44Speaker 1: going to be high, and it turns out there laying
- 37:47Speaker 1: the four and a half. We just as since we
- 37:49Speaker 1: started the podcast, we've moved it to five and a
- 37:51Speaker 1: half and I see some six is popping out. So
- 37:55Speaker 1: there's some money coming in on Atlanta right now, which
- 37:58Speaker 1: surprises me a little bit. I'm very surprised by that.
- 38:03Speaker 1: Uh you know, unless there's an injury with the Panthers
- 38:05Speaker 1: that I'm I mean, I know, uh Luke Keickley kind
- 38:08Speaker 1: of went down with uh you know, either his shin
- 38:11Speaker 1: or his leg or his knee. I don't have any
- 38:14Speaker 1: new information on him, but unless somebody knows of something
- 38:17Speaker 1: that that we don't. But they're they're in the last hour,
- 38:20Speaker 1: there's been some heavy money on Atlanta. Hold on, I'm
- 38:23Speaker 1: getting a note from the producer and it looks like
- 38:25Speaker 1: he's telling me to buy Meta Muesl. So I'm not sure. Oh,
- 38:32Speaker 1: Greg Olsen is out. Yeah, but Dion Jones, a linebacker
- 38:36Speaker 1: for the Falcons, is out. So that, uh, I mean,
- 38:40Speaker 1: I can't I don't see that being enough to to
- 38:43Speaker 1: drive the line up to six. I don't either, And
- 38:45Speaker 1: we're getting more. We might even go to six as
- 38:48Speaker 1: as we speak. Should we do it? Let's do it?
- 38:52Speaker 1: Here we go. So let's like, I can't give an
- 38:56Speaker 1: opinion on that game. I can't give a side on
- 38:58Speaker 1: that game. I don't think either of a seer real Anda,
- 39:00Speaker 1: you've got dead numbers. You're moving into a live number
- 39:03Speaker 1: with teams that like, we don't have a real handle
- 39:05Speaker 1: on yet. I favor the Panthers here. I I kind
- 39:09Speaker 1: of like taking I wouldn't mind taking the plus six. Yeah,
- 39:13Speaker 1: minde that down, alright. New Orleans Saints the team I
- 39:17Speaker 1: have a super Bowl ticket on, which was uncomfortable on Sunday.
- 39:21Speaker 1: Uh minus nine over the Brownies. Yeah, I think they
- 39:25Speaker 1: bounced back. This game scares me and I'm I'm gonna
- 39:29Speaker 1: be high on them. Uh. I still look at the
- 39:32Speaker 1: first three quarters of that brown Steelers game and uh
- 39:35Speaker 1: I started thinking, boy, when am I ever gonna learn
- 39:38Speaker 1: about these this Brown's team. But then they surprised me
- 39:41Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. So but I don't think they
- 39:44Speaker 1: get as lucky again. Um, it's a Saints team that's
- 39:47Speaker 1: not gonna lose a second game. Uh So I think
- 39:52Speaker 1: the Saints has roll them in this one. So we
- 39:54Speaker 1: wanted to be on the high side. The public agrees
- 39:56Speaker 1: with me. Uh this is another game that's going to
- 39:58Speaker 1: be probably close to eight twenty, you know, maybe eighty,
- 40:02Speaker 1: maybe seventy twenty. I don't know, but it's it's definitely uh,
- 40:06Speaker 1: you know you need to have it. You can't be seven.
- 40:13Speaker 1: I want to I want to bet at your bookmaking
- 40:16Speaker 1: shop because clearly the math isn't working. Do you know
- 40:19Speaker 1: what I'm looking at. I'm looking at there's seven hundred
- 40:21Speaker 1: and twenty tickets to a hundred and ninety tickets, So
- 40:24Speaker 1: I'm looking at seven and ninety right now. So I'm
- 40:28Speaker 1: looking So that's what I saw, the seven and the two,
- 40:31Speaker 1: and I'm thinking the seventy. So it happened sometimes pretty
- 40:34Speaker 1: high total to you set it at forty seven and
- 40:36Speaker 1: a half. We're fifty now, wow, I was gonna say,
- 40:39Speaker 1: and now it's wowser. You're basically expecting the Saints to
- 40:46Speaker 1: put up a fifty Burgero by themselves. Yeah, and we're
- 40:49Speaker 1: and the Saints defense, I mean, Ryan Fitzpatrick just lit
- 40:54Speaker 1: them up. And the Browns were able to move the
- 40:56Speaker 1: ball at least on on the Pittsburgh Steelers. So even
- 40:59Speaker 1: though the Saints can can put up forty and fifty,
- 41:02Speaker 1: I think the Browns can probably put up seventeen to
- 41:04Speaker 1: twenty on on the Saints. If you had to bet
- 41:08Speaker 1: this game would you bet the Saints. Yeah, at that
- 41:11Speaker 1: big of a number. Yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't take
- 41:15Speaker 1: the Browns here Minnesota, Green Bay? Can you post this game?
- 41:20Speaker 1: So we still have to we still have to wait
- 41:23Speaker 1: on this one. But it's gonna be it's gonna be
- 41:27Speaker 1: right around one and a half on on Green Bay. Um,
- 41:31Speaker 1: you know unless Rogers is absolutely if he's definitely out,
- 41:34Speaker 1: then Green then Minnesota is going to be about a
- 41:37Speaker 1: three and a half four point favorite. Wow, he's worth
- 41:41Speaker 1: about five six points. I think six and a half
- 41:44Speaker 1: to seven. I think you're underrating him. It's still they're
- 41:47Speaker 1: still on the road. They're still four and a half.
- 41:50Speaker 1: We might open. We have to wait. We have to wait,
- 41:53Speaker 1: to say Scooch, listen to me. Yeah, I'm telling you
- 41:57Speaker 1: right now, Aaron Rodgers with six and a half to
- 41:59Speaker 1: seven to the point spread, if you post this game
- 42:02Speaker 1: at three, you're going to get bet up to four
- 42:04Speaker 1: and a half or five so fast you will not
- 42:07Speaker 1: know what hit you. You will be so sad, you
- 42:10Speaker 1: will be What do you say? I thought I said
- 42:13Speaker 1: four and a half? Five? Did I say three? Well,
- 42:16Speaker 1: you said you said the equivalent of what was gonna
- 42:18Speaker 1: be five points? Okay, dude, all right, all right, believe
- 42:24Speaker 1: you and me. If you need me to come down
- 42:26Speaker 1: there and do the percentages and set the book for you, Okay,
- 42:29Speaker 1: well you can do it all. I don't. I don't
- 42:31Speaker 1: really want to talk about this game because we can't
- 42:33Speaker 1: say anything yet. Okay, alright, San Francisco Detroit. San Francisco
- 42:37Speaker 1: is a five and a half point favorite. This game
- 42:39Speaker 1: was opened at three. I'm assuming that opener was before
- 42:42Speaker 1: the Week one games ended. Um, the Lions looked awful.
- 42:46Speaker 1: A little bit of the bloom is off the rows
- 42:49Speaker 1: on the Niners. Tell me about your methodology here. Uh, well,
- 42:54Speaker 1: we weren't real high on the Niners going in. We
- 42:56Speaker 1: kind of thought that they were going to be a
- 42:58Speaker 1: little overrated going into going into Week one. I was
- 43:02Speaker 1: kind of hoping we were wrong, because it turned out
- 43:05Speaker 1: we needed them pretty big against the Vikings. Um. A
- 43:09Speaker 1: couple of just a couple of plays was the difference
- 43:11Speaker 1: in that game. So I don't. I don't think the
- 43:14Speaker 1: uh the forty Niners played a bad game. Uh, not
- 43:18Speaker 1: enough to really adjust it too much. I think the
- 43:20Speaker 1: adjustments all had to come on the Detroit Lions side. Um,
- 43:24Speaker 1: and uh, you know, we still don't know what to
- 43:27Speaker 1: make of the coaching with with Matt Patricia, and there's
- 43:31Speaker 1: you know, not a whole lot to take that was
- 43:33Speaker 1: positive from that game against the Jets. So we're just
- 43:37Speaker 1: trying to anticipate a lot of public money coming in
- 43:40Speaker 1: and what number do we think we'll drive the sharp
- 43:44Speaker 1: guys to take the Lions in this one? And it
- 43:47Speaker 1: doesn't seem like five and a half is high enough here. Um,
- 43:52Speaker 1: the public is on this game at a rate of
- 43:54Speaker 1: about four to one, you know, watching the red zone.
- 43:59Speaker 1: It seemed like every time they went to this game,
- 44:02Speaker 1: Jimmy g had the ball and an opportunity to keep
- 44:05Speaker 1: his team in the game. And it wasn't until the
- 44:08Speaker 1: very end that they were just out of it. But
- 44:09Speaker 1: that was astonishing, like they were getting dominated in that
- 44:12Speaker 1: game and yet he kept it close enough. He threw
- 44:15Speaker 1: a lot of picks and so you know, that's a
- 44:17Speaker 1: big reason why they lost. But I was also impressed
- 44:20Speaker 1: that it just seemed like he was making some good
- 44:23Speaker 1: throws that kept them in that game, and that was
- 44:25Speaker 1: he was. Yeah, there was one pick six where the
- 44:28Speaker 1: receiver fell or maybe it wasn't a pick six, but
- 44:31Speaker 1: it was close enough to the goal line where but
- 44:33Speaker 1: it was he couldn't pin that one on him. He
- 44:36Speaker 1: threw it to where it needed to be thrown, then
- 44:38Speaker 1: the receiver fell, and then there was the fumble by
- 44:40Speaker 1: the forty niners on the one yard line as they're
- 44:43Speaker 1: going into to score a touchdown. Uh so, so some
- 44:46Speaker 1: real big swings. There was one play they had the
- 44:49Speaker 1: receiver wide open and went on his fingertips. He would
- 44:52Speaker 1: have been easy touchdown and he wasn't able to pull
- 44:55Speaker 1: it in. And the very next play I think was
- 44:58Speaker 1: the pick six, So there was like a four team
- 45:00Speaker 1: points swing on that just within two plays. So, um,
- 45:03Speaker 1: the team is about right about where we we thought
- 45:07Speaker 1: they should be. We're not going to just too much.
- 45:09Speaker 1: Uh this Lions team though, And I thought it was interesting.
- 45:12Speaker 1: I think seven new coaches first year coaches, and all
- 45:16Speaker 1: seven lost their first game. Oh and seven with the
- 45:20Speaker 1: new coaches. So or according to your math, okay, I
- 45:28Speaker 1: deserve that one. I got there fast, you did, Yeah,
- 45:33Speaker 1: go ahead, well listen, but the analysis you just gave
- 45:36Speaker 1: a spot on. That's what makes betting so hard, right
- 45:38Speaker 1: because people will look at the box score and see
- 45:40Speaker 1: that they lost to the Vikings and that they were
- 45:43Speaker 1: losing the whole game. They won't know that they were
- 45:45Speaker 1: like four key plays that were the difference between them
- 45:48Speaker 1: keeping the considerably closer being ahead. And so to me,
- 45:52Speaker 1: I look at that line and think, oh, maybe the
- 45:56Speaker 1: Niners might be the right side at a dead number
- 45:58Speaker 1: of five and a half, and I should probably try
- 45:59Speaker 1: to get it if I liked them a little bit.
- 46:01Speaker 1: Because the Lions, there was no escaping it. Like there
- 46:03Speaker 1: is no hidden box score, that box score stat that
- 46:06Speaker 1: can tell me the lines were any better than what
- 46:08Speaker 1: they were. They were just awful, correct. Yeah, there was
- 46:11Speaker 1: nothing to take from them from that game that was positive.
- 46:14Speaker 1: All right, we're wrapping it up here. We got three
- 46:16Speaker 1: more games Denver before we get a Scooterrough at Denver
- 46:20Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites over the Raiders. Uh,
- 46:23Speaker 1: Denver disappointed me. I thought they should have put the
- 46:25Speaker 1: Seahawks away so many times, and they just let them
- 46:28Speaker 1: let them hang around. Their defense was not nearly as
- 46:30Speaker 1: good as I thought they would be. Yeah, same here
- 46:33Speaker 1: and uh in case Keenum wasn't as sharp as uh,
- 46:37Speaker 1: not that we had like some real high expectations of him.
- 46:40Speaker 1: But he didn't look great either. Uh. We we talked
- 46:43Speaker 1: about it before that there was some sharp money on
- 46:45Speaker 1: the Broncos going into the season, and we're trying to
- 46:49Speaker 1: decipher what everyone was, what those guys were seeing that
- 46:52Speaker 1: we weren't necessarily seeing, so we we tried to be
- 46:54Speaker 1: a little high on them. We certainly did not need
- 46:57Speaker 1: Denver in that game last week, so a little disappointing there,
- 47:03Speaker 1: But so we tried to be high on the game
- 47:06Speaker 1: against the Raiders here. And you know, the line was
- 47:11Speaker 1: probably gonna be about Denver three and a half four
- 47:15Speaker 1: point favorite um before before last week's game, so we
- 47:19Speaker 1: thought five and a half was kind of inflated when
- 47:21Speaker 1: we hung it. But the first couple of bets out
- 47:24Speaker 1: of the gate, we're on Denver, So I'm sorry, we're
- 47:28Speaker 1: on the Raiders. The first couple of bets were at
- 47:31Speaker 1: plus five and a half on the Raiders, which surprised
- 47:34Speaker 1: me a little bit. Um. I thought that we'd uh.
- 47:38Speaker 1: I thought we'd see more Broncos money here. So the
- 47:41Speaker 1: ticket account is dead even and the money's on the Raiders.
- 47:44Speaker 1: So I guess that first half uh that the Raiders
- 47:47Speaker 1: played against the Rams was impressive enough, uh for for
- 47:51Speaker 1: to make the betters believe that they're the right side here.
- 47:55Speaker 1: We got two prime time games. One of them is
- 47:57Speaker 1: the New York Giants plus three against the Dallas Cowboys.
- 48:00Speaker 1: People with any knowledge at all are gonna bet those
- 48:04Speaker 1: Giants like they need them for their lungs. Scooch. Yeah. Uh,
- 48:11Speaker 1: Cowboys were horrendous. Yeah, they did not look good. Um,
- 48:17Speaker 1: they didn't look good at all. This is I mean
- 48:21Speaker 1: a matchup like this primetime Giants and Dallas almost always
- 48:26Speaker 1: you're going to see some equal amount of bets on
- 48:29Speaker 1: both these teams. Uh. So we're slightly heavy on on
- 48:33Speaker 1: the Giants, uh in terms of ticket account but we're
- 48:37Speaker 1: really heavy. This is probably the most bet game in
- 48:40Speaker 1: terms of the wise guys. As I'm looking at this,
- 48:43Speaker 1: it's probably a toss up between the Dolphins and the Giants.
- 48:46Speaker 1: And if you remember, I just moved the Dolphins during
- 48:49Speaker 1: the podcast here, so uh, the Giants might be the
- 48:53Speaker 1: next one to fall. Uh. We like to hang a
- 48:55Speaker 1: solid number and not move on and off of three
- 48:57Speaker 1: two much, especially this early in the week. Um, but
- 49:01Speaker 1: there's enough sharp money here on the Giants to to
- 49:03Speaker 1: to make me want to move this to two and
- 49:06Speaker 1: a half. Um, the Giants didn't play. You know, there's
- 49:10Speaker 1: a lot of mistakes in that game against the Jaguars.
- 49:12Speaker 1: And if you believe that the Jaguars are good enough
- 49:14Speaker 1: now to beat New England, then uh, it wasn't that
- 49:17Speaker 1: bad of a loss. Uh. For for the Giants, they're
- 49:20Speaker 1: dealing with a new coaching staff, and we talked about
- 49:22Speaker 1: them new offensive line, kind of a whole revamped offense.
- 49:27Speaker 1: But Uh, anytime Giants and Cowboys play, it's usually a
- 49:31Speaker 1: tight game. Though. Yeah, And honestly, that's what I was thinking,
- 49:34Speaker 1: Like the Jaguars were just their defense was amazing. Um.
- 49:38Speaker 1: And the Giants they did pretty well, considerable. They scored
- 49:41Speaker 1: fifteen points against a really great defense. Um, and they
- 49:45Speaker 1: had a couple of bad drops, so they could have
- 49:47Speaker 1: been even better, right, Whereas the Cowboys didn't do anything
- 49:50Speaker 1: against the defense that I don't think it is news
- 49:51Speaker 1: get as the Jags. Um, if it weren't such cliche,
- 49:54Speaker 1: I'd be all in on the Giants right now. But
- 49:56Speaker 1: I've done that once before, and I need to find
- 49:58Speaker 1: a new a new tune to play. Uh. The Chicago
- 50:01Speaker 1: Bears on Monday night, Um, they are coming off a
- 50:05Speaker 1: heartbreaking loss. They're playing the Seattle Seahawks. There three and
- 50:09Speaker 1: a half point favorites, and who are the wise guys
- 50:17Speaker 1: are right now? Uh, they're on Seattle and we uh,
- 50:20Speaker 1: we've gone down to three actually actually three minus twenty
- 50:24Speaker 1: on the Bears. And here's another game that was made
- 50:27Speaker 1: an adjustment on on both sides, quite an adjustment on
- 50:30Speaker 1: the Bears. Most of that was with the Khalil mac
- 50:33Speaker 1: Uh the addition of Khalil Mack and he really lived
- 50:36Speaker 1: up to every expectation in that game against the Green
- 50:40Speaker 1: Bay Packers. Um the public now that you know, they
- 50:43Speaker 1: saw that game and they're on the Bears in this
- 50:46Speaker 1: one minus three on a primetime game. But uh, I
- 50:53Speaker 1: don't know, you don't What impressed me the most about
- 50:55Speaker 1: the Bears is after they lost the lead and wanted
- 51:00Speaker 1: to see miss Drabinsky and how he responded. This guy
- 51:03Speaker 1: didn't fold. You know, the defense gave up um all
- 51:08Speaker 1: those points in the fourth quarter with with Aaron Rodgers
- 51:11Speaker 1: on one leg. So there's really no excuse for that.
- 51:14Speaker 1: You don't know how much just a tribute to the
- 51:15Speaker 1: greatness of Aaron Rodgers or how much just to the
- 51:19Speaker 1: collapse of the Bears defense there. But I think I
- 51:22Speaker 1: was really most impressed with No matter what situation, mits
- 51:25Speaker 1: Drabinsky came in, he didn't make a bad play, he
- 51:28Speaker 1: didn't lose his composure. He looked like he was just
- 51:32Speaker 1: ready to lead the team right back down. So that
- 51:35Speaker 1: impressed me. That impressed me quite a bit. Um So
- 51:38Speaker 1: I could understand the public wanting to bet the Bears
- 51:42Speaker 1: in this one, but the sharps are on Seattle. I
- 51:45Speaker 1: was convinced, as a Bears fan that when they were losing,
- 51:49Speaker 1: that the game was going to end on a pick
- 51:51Speaker 1: six and they weren't even gonna cover. That's what I
- 51:54Speaker 1: texted my body. I'm like, not only is this a
- 51:57Speaker 1: devastating loss, but this will be a devastating us for
- 52:00Speaker 1: me personally. So when they didn't, when they just covered,
- 52:03Speaker 1: I took it as a wine. Well that's something that's funny.
- 52:09Speaker 1: How you watch games now? Is it amazing? Yeah? All right, Scooch,
- 52:14Speaker 1: we gotta play some Scooch roulette. Let's go you one.
- 52:21Speaker 1: Last week you had the Chicago Bears speaking of I
- 52:24Speaker 1: had the Houston Texans not speaking of them at all.
- 52:28Speaker 1: So let's roll. Let's roll them bones. Why why don't
- 52:34Speaker 1: you go first? Arizona Cardinals plus thirteen versus the Los
- 52:37Speaker 1: Angeles Rams. Go Panthers plus six against the Falcons. Yep,
- 52:45Speaker 1: here we go. That's a bold Stallion pick right there.
- 52:48Speaker 1: Yeah it is. What do you think of my pick?
- 52:50Speaker 1: I like it. I think that line is gonna come down.
- 52:52Speaker 1: I think you got a good number. There, got the
- 52:53Speaker 1: best number. That's all you can dom right there, get
- 52:57Speaker 1: the best of the number. I like it. Scooch, You're
- 53:01Speaker 1: my friend. You're my friend. Glad we can connect for
- 53:05Speaker 1: this time. You're my favorite, You're my favorite person. You're
- 53:12Speaker 1: my person. All right, buddy, I'm glad we got your
- 53:16Speaker 1: comrads working, so we'll talk to you a get don't
- 53:18Speaker 1: turn it off. I won't. I'll leave it on. Everybody
- 53:21Speaker 1: should listen to the favorites. We have another show coming
- 53:23Speaker 1: up on Friday, Me and Blackjack will make our five
- 53:26Speaker 1: picks for the Westgate Super Contest. Tune in Monday, where
- 53:29Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz, Paul Duke and I set the week up
- 53:32Speaker 1: with our favorite bets for the following weekend. Download rate, subscribe, unsubscribe, redownload, resubscribe, review.
- 53:43Speaker 1: This has been the favorite time. Chat Nolman from the
- 53:45Speaker 1: Action Network. Thank you