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The Favorites - NFL Week 15 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by Fandoel. It might be cold,
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  Speaker 1: and why or text hope and why for six nine
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  Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www Dot one gambler dot net
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Milman, Chief Content
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as I
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: am in every episode by my bff, my companion Mike
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: and Padre professional Better Simmon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: What's brother? Listen? There's a lot a lot. So we
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: took a bye last week in the contest as is
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: required unfortunate Lee. We like to take a bye in
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: the contest and then hypothetically, you know, talk about the
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: picks we're gonna put in and hope that they go
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: terribly wrong. This week, the five picks we made that
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: you put out on Twitter that we would have made
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: went three and two, And the truth is, uh, we
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: probably would have dropped one of those games and play
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: something else and we probably would have gone four and one.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Uh So that's a bummer because who likes to miss
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: a week when we know we're gonna win. And we'll
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: break that down in a second. Let me table set
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Foxhole we had the Broncos plus nine and a half.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: One Simon says, Giants plus seven did not go our way.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Exact decision. The Lines minus two and a half nailed it,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: big Balls, Chargers plus three and a half nailed it.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Scooch Roulette, you had the Chargers the Broncos. So like,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: we just had another crushing week. It was good, but
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: we gotta be careful, right had pride comes right before
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: the fall, so cometh before the fall. I gotta stay
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the course. Um. One of those weeks that we just
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: it's tough that we had to do. By week we
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: kind of knew we we we knew we had games
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: we loved. Um. My hope was, you know, the public
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: would maybe catch one, just because we were on a
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: lot of public sides when we saw the charts the money, Um,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: we love the Jets. The Jets were one of the
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: most bet sides. Like that was one of the bigger,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: big games of Sunday that that was like flukey, you
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: could say it was fluky, but we had a safety
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: and a few about the end of the game to
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: cover that number. That's just not how you draw it up,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: but we say it to people at the time. You
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: just I get what people were like. You know, they
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: can get mad about that Giants game, but that's how
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: it is when you're playing the numbers in a model
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: where I don't want to say jail and hurts his
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: neo from the matrix, but he kind of is. He
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: kind of breaks the mold where the mahomes throwing Pete
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: three interceptions and having a bad game against Denver and
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: the so Denick cat backdoor that cover. That's what I
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: thought was gonna happen that Eagles game. It's just like, Okay,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: Eagles should win this game, but it's gonna be a
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: close game. It's a divisional game, they're on the road.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: But he went next level, I mean fourth and seventh
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: throwing a touchdown. That's what I knew. That Giants game
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: was just gone. So that's where it was a good
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: week for people that play models. Played big dogs. We
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: just played the numbers and it's like we talked about,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: we didn't feel great about that Broncos game. You said,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: you've got a lot of hate online from people getting
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: upset before bets, even at halftime when it was twenty seven.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Nothing where I didn't know that was the score. I
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: honestly didn't watch that game, stayed away from it just
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: because I knew it was gonna be stressful. I can't
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: believe the reason we covered that game is Russell Wilson.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: The fact that he drew a pick six and was
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: able to come back in that game is the definition
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: of just play the numbers, don't don't, don't think about
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the teams, don't think about the names. Just play. Play
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: what you know is getting you to this where we're
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: at now, which is playing ugly dogs. So good weekend
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: for the fans of the show and for us betting personally.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: But yeah, sucked. We we took a bioweek in a
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: week we crushed in the contest. Uh you mentioned the
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Broncos game. I'm actually astonished at this. You know, me
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and you and Matt Mitchell we don't text on Sundays
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: during the games because a bad juju. But be you
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: remember when what happened the one time I let you
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: calling me on a Sunday. I don't want to talk
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: about it, so uh A, it's bad juju. B. We've
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: been around long enough to know these games can go
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: sideways one way or the other. So fast In my
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Twitter timeline, filled up with people who were just ripping
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: me for the Broncos. And I want to be like,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: if you're a sports fan, you know better than to
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: go after someone in the middle of a game. If
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: you've ever made a bet in your life, you know
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: better than to go after someone in the middle of
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: a game. And by the way, if you're ripping me,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I would only assume that European because you took the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Broncos too, and in the end it worked out great
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: for us. So are you are you now apologizing to me? Um?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Number one? Number two? You and I joke about this
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: all the time. People in Miami. A few weeks ago,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: we said if we were going to fade any team
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: down the stretch right now, we'd fade Miami. And I
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: think that was heading I forgot which game that was
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: heading into, maybe the Niners. And and we're like a
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: lot of games on the road. Their schedule has been
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: pretty easy. Two has looked great against bad teams. The
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: last six weeks of the year. They got a tough
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: road to how literally, on the road against really good defenses.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Broncho has been blown out two weeks in a row. Um,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not looking good doing it right? So we had
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. Big ball. People. We want to remind you
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: of one more thing. I got a really good life.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: I don't live with hate. I don't. I don't live
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: with hate. I don't live with jealousy. I don't give
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: a funk about the Vikings. Okay, I don't make bets
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: against the Vikings because emotionally I don't like the Vikings.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: I could care less about the Vikings. I make the
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: bet on the number. I make the bet based on
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: what we discussed. I make the best of what we see.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I bet against the Vikings every week because they're overrated.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: That's it. Like I love the Bears. That's great. When
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the Bears win or lose, the end of that day,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I'm done with it. I'm not thinking, oh, well, I
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: gotta bet against the Viking because I hate the Vikings.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: That's for other people. Well, sir, thank you. Meanwhile, we
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: gotta get back to it. We gotta get back on
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: the horse. We gotta out. We gotta why both no
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: more buys four weeks left the home more guys four
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: weeks left, and look, we got to find a way
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to make up some ground because during the bye we
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: lost one more game. So the guy is leaving the
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: contest the last five weeks. That's not even a joke.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: So we're now five games back where top one d
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: out of four thousand people. Um, but we got to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: find a way to close it out this last month.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: We got to close it out strong. First game up
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, Seattle Seahawks, uh three and a half against
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: the Niners. We don't like to bet Thursdays, but dude, yeah,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I we might have to chat. This is a pretty
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: good scenario. It's it's another home dog in a divisional
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: game and a team that I feel like everyone has
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: completely gotten off the boat the Seahawks, that that that
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: was his worst game, that was his worst game of
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: the year against that Carolina d and a game full
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: of people for saying, well the four has even better
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: version of that Carolina's defense. And we know that McCaffrey
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: has been out of this world for his fourtwners team,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: and then they've been running the ball so well. Um
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. I mean we and not
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: that I I was bashing Jimmy G, but I just
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: said Jimmy G wasn't worth two the four now as
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: much as people really thought he was where he was
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: just mostly a game manager. I only moved him, moved
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: a half a point when Brock took over. That was
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: like literally the only difference I saw of it. Now
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: it's equal. I still might be a little too under
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: rating brock Purty here, Like that was a really good
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: game by him. He ran the ball, he had some
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: good throws, and he was able to read a defense,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: which I still can't believe he was able to do. Um,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: just because of what he's coming from, he's the last
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: pick in the draft. Usually these guys have major flaws. Um,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Kyle's hiding his flaws right now, but he's going up
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: against the Seahawks team that Pete does really well against
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Kyle and this offense. Historically, the Seahawks even the last
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: five games, you go back there four and one straight
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: up against his FOURT howners team, and that's when Jimmy
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: was healthy and plane. Now they've got a young kid
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: in there in a spot that's just such a short turnaround.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: That's my biggest thing to me is the fact that
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: not only do I like the match up for the
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Seahawks offense, I think this is kind of the same
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: thing where they're gonna spread it out and they'll be
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: able to throw the ball through the air against the
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: sport ours team. But the fact that it's a short
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: week and the Seahawks had such a bad loss at
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: home on this short week just a couple of days ago.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: The fort the other side, they just blew out Tampa
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Bay like they're gonna definitely be feeling good Monday, still
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: be thinking a little bit about that game on Tuesday,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: and then maybe get their head turned around for Seattle
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: by Wednesday. We look at the flip side, it's like
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the seat treat to turn the page. They're they're like,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: all right, let's get over that one. Now. We're playing
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: for our division here. And that's what this kind of is.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: This is like a divisional whoever wins this, you know,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: has the potential to win this division and that and
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks need this to make the playoffs. So there's
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a bunch of things I like about. But the biggest
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: one is I make this line too. It's three and
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: a half just because of what we just talked about.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: The Seahawks. They laid in a complete egg while the
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: forty is completely blew out of team. You're getting free
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: points here it's another week of you just have to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: kind of take these three points. In fact, that's an
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: island game. We know the public is going to be
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: pounding the forty nine. I'm gritting the three half now
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: just in case it does drop in the prose take it,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: but you should be able to get value. Like I
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: just see the public coming in so happy on the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: fourts here that if everyone's fully healthy, ifficious debo, that's out.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: This number should be closed at three and a half.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So I'm driving out just to be safe because it
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: does drop the three, but I do feel like I'll
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: close the three and a half. Well, I'm glad you
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: put a number on it as and it should be
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: rated at two. It's a Bilow cell Bilow cell high right,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Like brock Purty was nearly perfect in the first half
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: against the Bucks, every throw that he needed to make
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: was in the exact right spot. Can you expect those
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: circumstances to replay themselves on Thursday night on a short
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: week on the road in Seattle. Everything lined up for
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: him perfectly the other day. So I agree this is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: the spot where we've struggled this year on Thursday nights.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Do we really want to back the home dog you've
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: smartly been like on the Buffalo side and that Patriots
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: game and a couple of other spots, but it does
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: feel like you're getting the hook. You take the hook, yeah,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: and just the Usually there is value with going with
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the favorites on these spots, but I feel like the
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: value is totally shifted in this position where the Shawks,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: it's just there's just too many points. Now where I
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: do agree the four nine is there is a gap there,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: there are a better team, But I mean it's that's
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: just so many weeks on our road to put together.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Just playing that well, they're gonna get tripped up, and
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: this is the perfect matchup we get tripped up in.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: It's just a divisional game. You know, it's gonna be
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: ugly and close. The fact that we're getting over three
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: and a half, it's like, man, it's something I love.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: If if this wasn't a Thursday game, this was a
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Sunday game, this would be one of my bigger bets
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: of the week. But like you just talked about, because
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the favorites do get a little bit more of a
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: bump on Thursdays, it's giving me a little bit hesitancy
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: but the three and a half, it's just such great value.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I just can't pass on that. Colts Vikings Colts four
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: and a half. I fucking hate the Vikings. We know that.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I started the show explaining that emotionally I'm gonna have
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: to beg against the Vikings, but in reality I love
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the cults here. The Vikings. The hate we have for
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: them isn't the hate of them being overrated, um. The
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: hate is their defense isn't good enough to keep getting
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: all these points in different matchups where that's that's what's
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: holding them back. They just give up tons of yard
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: even when Kirk plays well, their defense is still letting
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: you know, these these no name quarterbacks there for three
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: yards um. So that to me is the struggle for
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: this Vikings team. And yeah, I'm with Chad. We're gonna
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: be back in the Colts here, but we're not bad
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: like the String. We need we need a quarterback that
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: can move the ball down field and we're not really
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: getting that here with the Colts. Um that's not really
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan strength. But I feel like Chad's right where
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: we have to trust a number that this is a big,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: big balloon number, and one team that the public hates
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the Colts and the other side of the Vikings that
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the people have until last week, and the most part,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: they've won a lot of money this year back in
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: this Vikings team. So I understand where they're coming from
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: that they want to back the team that wins close games.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: That's kind of want why I want to take the Colts. Like,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: even if the Vikings win, which we got no issue
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: with it, We're getting four points. That's that's a big
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: deal in these kind of matchups. So don't know if
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: it will be one of my best five, but I
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: do like the value right now sitting there on the Colts. Also,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: by the way, uh, this is a top three luck
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: rankings matchup in favor of the Colts and the luck
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: rankings this year we've talked about on the show constantly.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: If you are getting a luck ranking differential of about
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: let me look it up exactly here. Hold on, I apologize.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: If you get a luck ranking differential of um ten
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: plus points the r O I on at they're covering
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: it a fifty clip sixteen plus points clip the luck
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: ranking differential in this game, which essentially is saying, how
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: can you quantify regression the luck ranking differential in this
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: game is so just bet the Colts, all right, just
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: do it, lock it in. It's not personal. We don't
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: feel we don't hate the Vikings. We just don't like
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the way they're graded in the market right now, that's
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: it fair to say, right Simon. All Right, Um, Ravens
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: three point underdogs at the Browns. We whipped on the Browns.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I should say last week the games we would have had,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: we would have had the Browns at plus six against
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. We probably would have had the lines two
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: and a half, the Jags four, um, the nine, Ors
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: three and a half of Chargers five. So those would
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: have been the five. The Browns would have been the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: game that we lost. Yeah, and that was a typical
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I mean you even talked about four in the morning
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: where I just didn't understand, Um, I knew the group
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that had took a large position on the Browns. I
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: just don't understand the position of you're you're backing Watson
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: after we've seen him struggle after two years and not
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: playing football, and I saw nothing and read nothing during
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: the week that he had looked better in practice anything
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: like that, And it just did not make sense to me.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: He felt like they're playing the spot of well, well
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: back to the Bengals will struggle offensively and they have
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: injuries to their offensive you know, wide receiver group and
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: every whatever their reasoning was, and I just didn't get it.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: I kind of blindly followed them because I like Cleveland
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: that spot of Yeah, I can see them playing this
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: game close. But that was just crazy. That was one
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: of the biggest bets of the year. I just it
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: is just bizarre. These people fall in love a certain games,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: certain picks. So yeah, we saw that game go from
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: six down to four. We had six and a half
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: in the contest. It was just it's gonna be really
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: hard to avoid that one where I knew the guys
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: who made the bet respect their opinion, got where they
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: are coming from. But Watson, he's been bad. So looking
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: at this matchup here, yeah, I want to take Watson.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I want to take the Browns. That's where the value is.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: But at what cost. We saw last week. If you
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: can't move the ball, if you can't make completions on
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: third downs, it's all irrelevant. You can throw all their
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: numbers out, it doesn't matter. So I don't trust any
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: of my numbers on Watson because it's like all my
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: stuff is based off who he was two years ago,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: which is a top five quarterback. He really was that
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: good people. People might not remember it that way, but
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: he was. I mean you could you could drive to
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: to Hopkins. I mean that was a big, big key
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: to his success over the years as well. But the
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: players with his feed is is presence in the pocket.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: He was just such a good quarterback. So um, for me,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: I love to take Cleveland here. I just can't do
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: anything of this game where I really don't know I'm
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: a going from Watson. So there's just other games I'll
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: bet this week. I'll just I'll just keep waiting to
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: see what we have in him. Maybe I'll I'll take
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: some Browns bets next year. But for everything I've seen
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: from Watson, he just does not look the same. He
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: looked a little lost. So I just want to put
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: money on that. Yeah, this is one you know we
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: always talk about, you wanna you want to ride to
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the peak of the market, and you've got one, then
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: you want to get out at that peak. And I
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: think we've been trying to play the Browns as we
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: believe the value in the market was on them because
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: of Watson, and I don't feel like I need to
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: keep betting on Watson because I'm expecting him to get
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: better in this game. Like I can wait, Like I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: can I can pass on this one. Yeah, me as well. Dolphins. Uh,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: we said we wanted to start fading the Dolphins. The
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Dolphins are seven and a half point dogs at the Bills.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Who knows what's going to happen with the weather on
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the East Coast this week. I keep getting alltterates about
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: how terrible it's gonna be. Um, this is a pro
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: was Joe's game with about seventy of the money coming
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: in on the Dolphins at plus seven and a half,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: but all the bets coming in on the Bills. Yeah.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Interesting matchup of it's a short week. I mean it's
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: a Saturday night game, so it's a short week, primetime
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: game in Buffalo. This usually where Josh Allen does really well, uh,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: in these positions, especially at home. So my gut instinct
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: was you just take the Dolphins, So you take the
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Especially we already talked to earlier
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be snow and no wind. That's a huge advantage,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: especially to a team like Miami that it's all scripted,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: like where tiree Hills going, where while are running to.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Those are just all McDaniel written up plays where they're
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: all scripts exactly where they're going. That's a huge advantage
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: of wide receivers. Like the defense that's who needs traction,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: they need their backpedaling. They're they're taking weird angles and
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: stepping in weird angles because they're trying to guess where
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: our players going. Imagine doing that the tire killing waddle
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the two fastest players of football in snow. So yeah,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: this is one of those Chad where we wake up
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning there is snow or Saturday sorry, Saturday morning,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: and there's snow on the ground, and by time kickoff
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: comes around, I text you at seven o'clock, I'm like, hey,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: there's no win. Should we just take the pointer and
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: take the seven and a half? I think we do
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: it because we've seen Josh Allen since this injury, they've
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: not been the same, This offense has not been the same.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: So um, even with my doubts right now, Miami's defense
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: man three straight row games. That's a tough position to
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: put any team in. But this is one of these games.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: I just can't see them overlooking or having a letdown game,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: which what they had last night or two nights ago
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers, and this is not their season, but
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: kind of right, this is kind of in those games.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: It's like, all right, you win this, I could see
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: you guys get the playoffs. You lose it. It's a tailsman.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: You've lost three straight. It's not getting any easier down
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: the stretch here. So yeah, an interesting game, interesting number,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: A little little stinky that it's seven and a half
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: because they're sucking me in, like I love that that seven.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: It happened a divisional game here. So this is definitely
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: one of these games. People. I'm not gonna bet right now,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: or if I do, maybe I'll throw a little on it,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: but it's one I need to know exactly what I'm
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: getting into on Saturday. I need to know the weather.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: You know what the lake effects. No is gonna be
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: all that. That's it's a big deal up there in Buffalo.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: So this is one of these I'm just gonna wait
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: and see. I was gonna make it, my Simon says,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna wait now and see. Once I know
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: the weather, report Simon, Uh, a wise man has said
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: to me, and I will share it with you. The
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: bookmakers are not our friends. Okay. If they're giving you
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, there there's something stinky going on. Reminder,
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: as Matt Mitchell just just slapped me and Simon, and
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Simon pointed out the past three games that we just
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: talked about, the Vikings and the Colts, the Browns and
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: the Ravens, UM, the Bills and the Dolphins. Those are
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the Saturday eight games. Don't forget three Saturday games now
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: getting into the Sunday games. Falcons plus four and a
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: half against um, the Saints not. I don't have a
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on this one. It's actually at four at
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: fandor right now, so it's pretty much moved universally. I
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: think I just don't like, I don't see this being
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: in our final five, you know, yeah, Like I like
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: the Saints in the simple fact that it's a rookie
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: making his first start on the road. UM, I can't
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: really see this working out for the kid. I mean,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: he's played well the different times he's come in. That's
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: a lot to ask of a kid, especially in the Superdome. UM.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I'm with Chatt here. I don't
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: really know what to do it with this one. I
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: might have a better opinion for it on Thursday, but
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: early indications I I like the Saints, but I just
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: need more time to fair and what I'm gonna do
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: with Atlantic team because Marioda did get stagnant there. He
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: just seemed like the defense has kind of figured him out,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: that kind of wearing this little zone safety on him
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: where the safety would step up in the middle of
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the field, he would get just an inkling, oh the
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: hand for him running the ball. They would step up
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: into the box and just just wasn't working like it
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: was early in the season when they want all those
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: games and we're covering machine. They just haven't been that
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: down the stretch here. So um yeah, initial instincts back
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: any Dalton one PM at home, you fade him in
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: primetime games are usually back him at home here. But
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: just no real read like chat on this game yet.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: The bummer for since fans that franchise went from having
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: a real attitude and flavor and personality even without Drew
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Brees because of Sean Payton, just by virtue of him
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: being who he is. You got Andy Dalton and Dennis Allen,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: and they are the pitome of a forgettable franchise. Yeah,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: but this is just how football is though, right, It's
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: just the ups and down. You if you have a
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: nice tenure run, you're about to go on a nice
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: little run of hell. But I'll tell you what, this
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: proves my point. Nobody ever forgets about the Bears because
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: the Bears are his store franchise. If the Saints don't
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: have anybody in a position to make people think about them,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: no one will think about them. The Bears could be
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: one of fifteen they're still getting in prime time. The
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Saints will never be in prime time on a regular
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: basis unless they are a team that has some kind
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: of swagger. It as if you guys have been around
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: sixty years before the Saints are around. How about that?
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: I know that's my point. I'm not I'm owning it.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it for any other reason. Speaking of
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: the Bears, the Bears are nine point underdogs in the
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Simon Versus Chad Bowl. We hopping on in the foxhol Well, listen,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: you're you know you only love the Eagles and you
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: can't see straight unless you know so I'm happy to
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: jump in the foxhol. I was gonna make this an
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: e D but you want to get in the foxhole.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Let's get in fucking foxhol. Let's put the Bears a
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: plus nine to the goddamn foxhole. You know me, regardless
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: foxhole guy. Gotta I understand people's worries. Here hurts his
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: m v P level playing right now. It is incredible,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: But holy heck, have they just had so many fortunate
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: bounces going their way, these Eagles these last couple of weeks,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: and this line has just ballooned up. I mean, if
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: it was seven, sure I could be talked into the
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Eagles because I make this line six and a half,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: and maybe I could give a little bit of a
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: little bit of leeway to this Eagles team because they
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: are the better side. But now we've crossed the key
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: number of eight eight and a half rolling up to nine.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: At this point with this Barriers team, we just have
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: to do it. We've just seen it so many times
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: with Justin Fields. He's so athletic, he's so incredibly gifted
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: that in games like this, he just keeps it close,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: especially at home. This year, They've been in a lot
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: of these games. I mean that that Green Bay game
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: was brutal. They were covering that game. They're winning the
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: whole time. At the very end of it, a little
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: broken tackle Green Bands I winning by ten. That's just
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: a really flukey, unlucky noncover. If you were on the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Bears side, I just don't. You can't really count those
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: things in these models. So to me, I counted that
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: as a win for this Bears team. So I still
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: getting the benefit and moved up the points to make
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: this game six and a half. It's nine. Just because
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the public is completely out on this Bears team. They're
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: like what Jack kind of said earlier. I don't know
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: if you're on airboard, but it's just about the Bears
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: already kind of looking for next year. They already know
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: what they have and hurt I mean on hurts and fields.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: They just want to keep him healthy and keep him
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: up right. He's such a competitor, Like to me, he's
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: if he's playing this game, he's going full boar. Nine
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: points in this matchup, it's just a lot of points.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: So Eagles even if they're up big, up twenty in
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: the first half, I still won't be worried because I've
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: just seen this Bears team have multiple games, even that
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Vikings game. The Vikings rub big first half, Bears come back.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: That's just how I feel about this Bears team. They're
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: just a team that can keep coming back, keep fighting.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: You're never out of him. You're getting nine points in
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: those kind of those For those kind of teams, you
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: have to back it. Yeah, Look, if he's going to
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: be playing, there's a possibility the Bears can score just
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: because you can't account for justin fields. He's so athletic
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: in the same way we've seen game changers like what
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes can do or what Lamar Jackson can do.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: You know what we've seen Jalen Hurts do. Like he's
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: just gifted and like finds a way he can dup
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: people in ways that five people in the NFL may
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: be able to do. So, of course you've got to
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: play the Bears. Is nine point at home underdogs? Do
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: we think that delta between the Bears and the Eagles
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: is smaller than say, the Chiefs and the Broncos. I do?
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Did I bet as much as I could on the
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Broncos at plus nine and a half, I did, so,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: of course we're gonna bet the Bears a plus nine. Yeah,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I have six figures on this one,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: just because, uh, it's the m v P of the
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: league right now. It hurts, but yeah, it's just it's
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: just an overinflated line. Like Chad was just saying, I've
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: got eight figures on this game, right eat eat figures. Uh.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: The Dallas Cowboys, I mean, god, we're shaping up to
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: love so many games here. The Dallas Cowboys are on
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: the road. They are four and a half point favorites
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I love the Jacks here. Yeah,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: we're screwed. Of course we love them. I mean we're
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna bet this. We're gonna lose money on it.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: It's just the way the world works for us this season.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: I just love this Jaguars team. We're finally seeing these
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks exactly what we saw coming to
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the season of Trevor Lawrence being that guy taking that
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: next step. It took a while. It took a while
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: for him to get comorable on Doug system. We've seen
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: it these last couple weeks. So he is finally comfortable.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: This team is really potent on offense when he's got
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: everything going. So, you know, Chad, I just I feel
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: bad because people are getting so scarred from our love
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: with the Jaguars. I can really understand it because even
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: last week they might have been down seven, nothing, whatever
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: it was, and I was just cursing myself, saying, why
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: do I keep betting this Jaguars team? But the Trevor
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Lawrence effect. Man, he's so talented. There's just certain throws
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: he makes. You're just like, man, this kid has all
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: the tools to be good in this sports. So Chad
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: and I we might be buying high on the Jaguars
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: here after the biggest, biggest one of the year against
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: the Titians. Now coming home and we're selling on a
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Cowboys team that they just had their worst game of
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the year against the Texans. They definitely should have lost.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: The Texans just can't beat They can't put teams away,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: and they let Dallas hang around Dallas. It was still
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: that game. But my concern here is just what it was.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago I talked about with Doc
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I just I don't like what I've seen from Dakdak
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: doesn't look comfortable. He hasn't looked right all season. That's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: why I don't take them serious. Come playoff time, I'd
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: still put the point irs over them, even with this
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: seventh round quarterback. It's just it's the Doc effect. He
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: just doesn't make the plays like he used to, doesn't
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: run out of the pocket like he used to he
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: does and make the smart reads like he used to.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on deck. It's just something
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: something is different with him this year. Something's wrong, and
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: he's already struggled in his whole career in the playoffs.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: To me, that's just gonna inflate come playoff time. So
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: um me and have I'm not gonna probably have with
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: this is one of our five. Like, I really do
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: like this number Against a Dallas team that sure they
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: might be a put up points run the ball. I
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: just don't see their defense really slowing down this Jaguars offense.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: They just have a lot clicking for them right now.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: So yeah, good matchup for this Jaguars team. What I
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: like about this right now? The last six weeks since
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Week nine Trevor Lawrence, according to Pro Football Focus, second
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: highest rated passer in the NFL. It's got ten touchdowns,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: no picks. Early in the year when we love the Jags,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: they were not converting in the red zone. And the
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: problem wasn't the play calling, it was Trevor Lawrence. And
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I'm no football I'm not like a football analyst, but
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I watched more than the average person. He was throwing
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: these balls that had no touch and we're super flat
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: in the red zone. And you could see that's evolving,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: especially in that game against the Titans. You also saw
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: him running against the Titans. He had a great bootleg
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: to score a touchdown against the Titans. UM and the
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: one thing I'll say is that their offensive line is
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: really good, top five against pressure in the NFL, and
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: so that mitigates Dallas is strength, which is rushing the passer,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: and the Cowboys have a lot of injuries in the
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: back end of their defensive secondary. UM, give me this
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: game at home. I like the matchup. I just do,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: I really really do we have to make this, Simon says,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: because I'm like looking at it four and a half
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: right now, I could see a drop in of four
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: over the next day or two. So I'm I'm I'm
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: making Timon says Simon says, Simon says jazz or half. Wow,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: that came out of nowhere. Well, I'm just thinking that.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: I was like, this number is definitely gonna move because,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: like you just said, it's just it's such a good
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: matchup for their strength against Dallas's weakness. All right, well,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: look we have the Foxhold Bears plus nine. The son
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: that says Jack's plus uh four and a half were
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: rolling lately, folks. So these are things you want to
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: jump on. I'm looking to get more out of the
• 32:22
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  Speaker 1: three three four two in Arizona one eight eight seven
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  Speaker 1: eight nine seven van seven seven or visit c CpG
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  Speaker 1: dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred nine
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: with it In Indiana ks gambling help dot com in
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Louisiana one eight seven and seven eight Hope NY or
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: text Hope n Y. In New York, Tennessee. Redline is
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine eight nine one eight
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: hundred five to two hundred in Wyoming, or visit www.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: One eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. The Lions.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting, the three things, the three teams we
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: talked about most for future bets for season win totals
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: before the season began. The Bears under five and a half.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I think they've got three wins over the next four weeks.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: They've got to go three and one. The Lions over
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: six and a half over the next four weeks. They
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: gotta win one more game. And then the Jets. We
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: had under five and a half. We're not going to
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: win that obviously. We also have the Jags at plus
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: seven fifty to win the a f C South. We
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: still got a shot with that one. We got the
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Lions playing the Jets basically pick. You know, some books
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: have it a Lions plus one, some have it Jets
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: plus one. It's a tough one though. I love the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Jets here, but they got injuries, so off to wait
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: and see. This was gonna be on my favorite bigger
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: bets of a week. We gotta wait and seeing right now.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: For Sunday, we're looking at a nor Eastern hitting the
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: North the Northeast. We got Jared Golf outdoors and a
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Northeastern that that actually would really be happened. So that
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: is just a complete nightmare fuel if you're a guy
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: that likes back on this Lions team, the splits are
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: just insane. What he does on the road and what
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: he does at home. Um this year, if you go
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: back and watch that Patriots game when that got shut out,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: that was just your classic. It was. It wasn't so
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: much bad weather, it's just golf got in his head
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: early on and they kind of took him out of
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: his element. We've seen that. That's how you kind of
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: beat this to Troit team. If you can kind of
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: get him off his spot, make him uncomfortable the offense
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: can't produce. That's a huge deal. But the key to
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: this matchup is the injuries. Like if the Jets are down,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: you know two guys in their D line. They got
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Mike Mike White is banged up, you don't know who
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: their quarterback is, I can't back it. And I want
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: to be on this Detroit team because that's like Chad
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: just talked about, this is the team. I love this team.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I have a lot invested in to make the playoffs,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: So I got no move on this one right now.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: But I can promise you the value right now is
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: on the Jets. It's just I don't know who the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: quarterback is. I don't know who's healthy. So I just
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: can't bet this on Tuesday. But if if they have
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: all their pieces in and Mike White's fully you know,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: good to go, and Queen and Williams is there on
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: the is back for the deal line? Like all right,
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: I could get on this movement and back the Jets
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: is a home dog here. But as we sit here
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, I just don't know who's in or not.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: So I just can't put any money in this game. Yet.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: You and I don't talk about these games before we
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: get on the air. Uh. I like the Jets here too,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: and the only reason I don't just because I just
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: want the lines to win. I love the Lions so much,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: and I love Dan Campbell and I want this team
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: to finish with a winning record. I want them to
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: finish in the playoffs. I want Dan Campbell to coast
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: the Lions for the next decade. That's way to win. Man.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Now you're figuring it out. Now, we're figuring it out.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: That's outstanding, gentlemen. So I'm passionately rooting for the Lions
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: and kind of keeping my eye on what the what
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: happens with the Jets roster right now because we gotta
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: be a mercenaries like we love them, but we're here
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: to make money. Yeah, that's why we don't care about
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Dolphins. Uh. The Steelers are two
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and a half point dogs on the road at the
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: resurgent Panthers. Very interesting game to me, right, I don't
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: know that this the Panthers should be two and a
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: half point favorites at home. You're obviously getting the bounds
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: from what they did against Seattle. They're a better team
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: with Sam Donald than they are with Baker Mayfield the quarterback.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: They're running the ball well, their defense is playing really well.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: A lot of pressure from the edges, especially with Brian Burns. Um.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know that Kenny Pickett is going to be
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: playing because of the concussion protocol. They are not a
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: very good team with Mitch Trubisky. I don't know. Do
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: you have a strong opinion here? Yeah, I'm shocked that
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: you don't. You don't want to take Carolina here. It
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: just feels like if Kenny's out and it is Mitch, Yeah,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: Mitch could burn us have a miracle game. But the
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: odds don't say that. They say, all right, this, this
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: is a one to one and a half point drop.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Him coming in over being Kenny Pickett, who just he
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: makes smarter plays. Mitch just does not. Can't read defense.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, how do you throw three interceptions? Um, the
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Ravens were begging to give that game away? I mean
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: three three interceptions? I don't I think two of them
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: might have been the red zone and a missfield goal.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: You're right, the value probably is on Pittsburgh, especially at
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Carolina had such a big game. But to me, the
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: values have shifted enough where if it is Mitch three, yeah,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I started thinking Pittsburgh with two and a half, that's
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: that's that's fair value right now to me on Carolina.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: So not not enough where I would make this one
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: of our five. But Yeah, my early lean right now
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: is towards this Carolina team that they have a great
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: defense and they kind of note they are on offense here.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, Sam Donald just an ultimate game manager. He
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: really didn't put his team in any position to lose
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: last week. He didn't do much offensively, he didn't have
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: that crazy were big throws, but he just didn't put
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: his team in a bad position. Their defense kind of
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: did the rest for him. So same kind of view
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: here of like, all right, maybe we just take the
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: under as well, and we just take Carolina again where
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: it's we're kind of back on their defense at home. Um,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: not so much, Sam Donald, because they have the same
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: film we do. You could run they're running. The Ravens
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: are running about ten yards anytime they wanted up the
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: middle with Gus Gus Edwards and j K. Dobbins. So
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if these Carolina running backs for a
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: bunch of no namers, they can run the ball. I mean,
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: they just ran all over the Seahawks. So a couple
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: of little favorable matchups on the D line and O
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: line positions for this Carolina team that just makes real
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: interest in them. But um, as we're sitting here on Tuesday.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Another game. I just need to wait and see who's
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: gonna be the quarterback for Pittsburgh this next one. The
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Kancity Chiefs. We just faded as nine and a half
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: point road favorites, go back on the road fourteen point
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: favorites against the Texans. Now, Like, look, Simon, yeah, you
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: and I both know we have to take the Texans. Yeah,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: we have to. Yeah, I wouldn't make one of our
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: five though, But this is this is like just the
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: classic we're bend the number we've been against. My home
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: is a big favorite because he just lets these teams
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: stay close. And I know I got lucky that earlier
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: this year I was on the Chiefs against the Rams,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: and I think they got a last second field goal
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: to cover that number. Um, but it feels like another
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: game where the Chiefs aren't going to show their best stuff.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: This is kind of be a tune up game for
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: the following week. They're just gonna try to stay healthy,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: get right against Houston team that they gave their all
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: last week, and like still even when every little thing
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: was bouncing their way, they still couldn't win that game outright,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I wanted back Houston here. I probably will
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: have fourteen, but won't be one of my bigger bets
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: this week. No, I should say, by the way, I
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: talked about the luck rankings, the biggest differentials in the
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: luck rankings this week, we've talked about all the games already.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Chicago is number one. We love Chicago. Houston is number two.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: We're taking Houston, but not in the contest. Indie is
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: number three. We're gonna take Houston, Indie probably in the contest.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville was number four. We're probably gonna take Jacksonville on
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: the contest. You've already made it your Simon says, bears
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: are a foxhole Cleveland who you didn't know the luck
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: rankings yet but you liked Cleveland, and uh New Orleans,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: who you lean towards. I have no opinion. There's number
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: six in the luck rankings this week. Biggest differentials not
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: not a nut shocker that line up with all them,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: because that's kind of where they're telling you, that's where
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the value is going to be. A lot of people
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: are making opinions on teams that they just haven't had
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: things bounced their way, and that's where you get a
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: couple of free points. But it makes me honestly feel good.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, last week, I know the luck Rankin's question,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: so um, it feels good to be on the same
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: side as those guys, the Patriots. One last night, they're
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: going on the road at the Raiders. Patriots are one
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: point favorites. I'm surprised that so much money of the
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the Patriots right now. Admittedly low
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: volume giving the Patriots is played last night, but uh,
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: tough one. Yeah. I love Vegas. I mean, Vegas got embarrassed,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: had one of the worst comebacks ever on Thursday night.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, Patriots just blew out the Cardinals by whatever,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: that was fourteen points. So um, to me, Vegas is
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: what you like against the Patriots team, that they're high
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: explosive offense, they can move the ball down feel in fact,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: that you're coming off such a bad, embarrassed seen loss.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: We love it like this. If they would have just
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: beat that game, if they would have won that game
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: by fourteen, but they were up in that final fourth quarter,
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: this line will probably Vegas minus three minus two and
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: a half. It's completely flipped the other way. Just because
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: people think this Vegas team is completely quit. Now on
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: their head coach where if you look at it, they
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: still actually have a chance somehow making the playoffs. It's
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: not that crazy. They can still have outside chance of
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: getting back into the playoffs. So I don't know, it
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: feels like I'm getting free points around Vegas. Um, I'll
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: take the value on that, uh, just because there's so
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: many other games I love this week that have good
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: value on bigger dogs. I don't know if they'll be
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: one of our five, but I do really like this match,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: and I like the value I'm getting on this this
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Vegas team after just such an embarrassing loss. Like usually guys,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: when they get embarrassed like that, there's kind of comeback.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Wins usually sparked something in the team the following week.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: This issue is McDaniels might be one of the worst
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: coaches in football this year. Josh mcdonnels. I mean the heat.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: We've never seen anything like that historically a team. They've
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: had four games now, they've been up double digg as,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: they've lost in the fourth quarter. So Um, a lot
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: of little negative things about this Vegas team, But can
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: can deny it. That's where the value is this week.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: The patriotsarial inflated line because what they beat Colt McCoy,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: the backup the Arizona last night. I don't know, it
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: was like just to get free points here with Vegas. Well, look,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if the team is quit on him.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: He's not going anywhere. So he's the coach this year
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: and next year, so the team can't really quit on him.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: And I don't know that they have quit on him.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: I think that they're all confused, they're all frustrated, they're
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: frustrated with each other. But they had a really good
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: run going there. They had a bad quarter and now
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: they're going to have to look at this as a
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: way to say, hey, we still got a shop, we
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: got a rally. We can beat a team that isn't
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: as talented as us. They just aren't look at across
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: the offense, who is the Patriots top receiver, Who is
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: their quarterback? Who is their running back? One on that
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: side of the ball is going to be as good
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: as Davante Adams, Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs. I mean, I
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: think generally the Patriots are in bad ship, Like they're
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: not good right now. The Patriots when this wins this
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: year are against backup quarterbacks. Dude, how are we not
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: making you know what, how are we not making the
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: Raiders the biggest bet we've ever made just based on that?
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Not kidding, but you're you're right, Like it's a good spot.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: The fact that it's making us so uncomfortable it probably
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: makes even more like this is definitely when you want
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: to take Vegas, because even even when you try to
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: talk about it's like, oh God, this fucking team in Vegas,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: they just keep blowing these games. But man, this is
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: such a nice matchup for them against his Patriots team.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: I think the question is going to be how long
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: do we wait? Because right out at FanDuel, uh, you
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: can get the Raiders at plus one and a half.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's a no brainer teaser. As soon as
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: we got off this call, I'll tease that up seven
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: and a half. I'll tell you that much. I'm just like,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: how do you not take the one and a half
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: right now? Could keep growing that you just had. All
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: this money is pouring on the Patriots, So who's a
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: key number. I'll wait to grab that too if it
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: hits it. But you're right, I mean, that's good value,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: good value Cardinals with Colton McCoy against the Broncos. Broncos
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites. You don't have
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: to bet every game, right, No, we have no idea
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: who the quarterback is. I mean, my gut tells me
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: to take the Cardinals here. Um, you got Russell Wilson
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: coming off what he looked like was a major concussion.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: He does play. Um, but yeah, no, no idea what
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: to do any of these teams. Two were the biggest,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: two of the biggest disappointments of this year. Cardinals, we're
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: a playoff team. Last year people thought, you know, they
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: could be able to keep riding on momentum even though
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: people had them as the third team that division behind
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: the Rams and the forty Niners. The flip side, the Broncos.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: I knew this crazy guy who wrote a best time
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: in New York Times bestseller book that made that he's
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: written four of him. Uh, he made them his one seed,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: despite his talented co host telling him all summer Russell
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: Wilson wasn't that good and he was overrated, So no calories. No,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: he drank the kool aid two. He loved Russell Wilson too. Um,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: but yeah, thank you guys for that easy value on
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs to win that division this year. That was
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: nice of you. It is amazing. There was so much
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: backlash against Patrick Mahomes was having an m v P title. Yeah,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: I drink my My, My Buddy the other day, Like
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I laughed for him. I said, can you believe that
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: we got the Chiefs at eleven o one? Like to
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl just because of that, like the
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: fact that people were just that down on them. Uh.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Still though, even even now, Matt Mitchell's team, the Bills
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: are still favorite for the Super Bowl, which it blows
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: my mind, just because Josh Allen hasn't played that well
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. The Tennessee Titans are now
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: on the road. We loved fading the Titans against the
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Jacks at home, but we also like fading Mike Vrabel
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: as a favorite of more than the field goal. And
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: so the Titans are now on the road two and
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: a half point dogs against the Chargers. Blindly, we have
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: said you fade the Chargers is favorites, and we've also
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: said you take the Titans as dogs and don't don't
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: change anything. You just do exactly what you said. Chad.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: We'll wait, give us, give us the three sports books
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: be nice to us. I don't think we're gonna get it.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I hope we do, just because I think the Pulk
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: will bet the Chargers. I mean, they looked like I'm
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: a completely different team with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: on the field together, don't they? Dude, as we're talking,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: it just went to three right, so to I mean,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: I feel like it would get there eventually, just because
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: the Titians have so many injuries and we don't know
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: if we don't know if Burks is gonna be back yet.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: For their wide receiving years, which is a is a
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: big deal for them, they need eat some type of
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: deep threat, especially that's how you can attack this Charger's team.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: But the biggest reason we want to take the Titans
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: here is people forget how do you beat the Chargers?
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: You run the ball? Like That's how they're losing all
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: these games and why they were run all these close
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: games was teams are picking up a hundred fifty seventy
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: five yards a game. First time. They were one of
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: historically one of the worst run defenses in football. Did
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: they figure it out last week or did they just
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: get it a lead and Miami couldn't run the ball.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: They had to pass the whole time. That was one
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: of those things where as soon as Miami kind of
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: throneto that game, scrip of they only were able to
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: pass um. They just were able to move the ball. Thanks,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: you really aren' built that way. They kind of just
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: stick to what they are. They like to run the ball.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: This is as low as it gets buying the Titans,
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: And this is the worst they've looked all year, right
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: they who do they play before the Eagles? You don't
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: remember they played by I'm pretty sure they lost. Then
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: they get absolutely dominated by the Eagles, and they absolutely
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: dominated here by the Jaguars. Oh man, it that's that's
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: the fear here, Chad. Where it's like the Titans they
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: are kind of reverting back to what they were early
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: in the season of this team that we thought we're
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: gonna just be bad. Right. They lost a lot of
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: key positions on offense. Their defense was struggling and very
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: able kind of righting the ship during the middle of
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: the season. They've reverted back to it a little bit
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: here these last couple of weeks. But how can we
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: not this is what we do against the Charges we
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: take the dog, especially if it's at three. So uh,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: I gotta hold your nose and and take the Titans
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: here at plus three. Done. Milman did it while we
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: were talking. He saw the three on the board. It's
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: plus three minus one eighteen at fandel Um. Thank yep.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Quick slipped it. Quick slipped it. For those who are listening,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: if you're in a legal state, go into your Action app,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: pick the game you want, quick slip it immediately to
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: fan duel. You don't have to go into the FanDuel
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: l app. Look for the game you get the bed
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: slip right there, punch in your bed. It's super easy.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: One of the is next two games will be my
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: executive decision, of which I am on a roll. Bengals
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I can't think of a reason to bet the Buccaneers. Yeah,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: even though we're supposed to, like this is this is
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: where we're supposed to bet them. This is a good
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: biolo spot. But Joe Burrow is he's that dude right now,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: like they're covering every game, He's making the big throws.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: I can't deny it, so I'll admit it. I'm scared
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: of Joe right now. Like nine out of ten times,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: I auto auto bet this Tampa team. Close my eyes.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Auto bet theom home dog against a team that's over inflated,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: especially value wise. Um, this Bengals team. But like you,
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: I just said, I can't do it. I don't know
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: what the hell I'm bet when this Buck's team. They're
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: showing nothing. They have bad drops every week, Brady never
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: has time in the pocket. Everything is just so negative
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: right now, Tampa, um Man. I mean off the time
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: I head. The only game I could think of them
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: covering was that Seahawks game in Germany. These last like
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: six seven weeks, they just they're just bad this year.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Gonda, I might end up with the public here.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I might have on the Bengals. I don't even care
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: if it's all the money, all the tickets are coming in.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Might end up on the Bengals this week. But I'll
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: hopefully just stay away from this one. I listen, I've
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: been riding the Bengals four weeks. I didn't against the Browns.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: It was a mistake. Um, But there's not a lot
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: of evidence that the Buccaneers are a very good football team.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: But this line stinks. It should stinks, Simon, This line
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: freaking stinks. Should be six and six should be six.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: It's three and a half. It's terrible. It is suspicious.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Suspect is saying the movies, you suspect. You know what's
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: not suspect making an executive decision to bet on the
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: New York Football Giants at plus four and a half
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: against the Washington Commanders. Simon, these teams played two weeks ago.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: These played two weeks ago when they tied New Jersey.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: So now because the Giants get blown out and the
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Commanders get a by and now they're playing in Washington,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: which has no home field advantage, the Commanders are all
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: of a sudden four and a half point favorites. Makes
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: no sense, makes no sense. And you're getting a team
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: that just got blown out. If you look back at
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: the data, look into the bet Labs database going back
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: twenty years, teams get blown up by twenty points or
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: more the following week covered clip. We're taking the Giants
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: as the executive decision. Damnit, Chad, I don't know. I
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: don't like it. I don't like it. The only thing
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: I don't like is I try to think of these
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: guys as humans, and Washington played the Giants and then
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: had a bye week and now they're playing them again.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: That's a big deal to me, Like that's all they
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: thought about and they've worked on for two weeks now,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: so they prep for a team for a week, played them,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: and then it got to just chill and rest and
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: think about that same team, and they know that's all
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: they gotta do is just beat these guys and they're
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Damn it, Chad, damn you, because you're
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: right like the Giants, this is a big line divisional
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: game or a prime time game. But I'm gonna wait
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: and see because if the public's all over the Giants,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: I am fucking all over Washington because I just I
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: do not trust this line at all. I'm right there
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: with you. Makes more sense if it was three or
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: three and a half. You saw these two teams played
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: to a tie. There's not a four and a half
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: point difference between being on the road and at home
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: for this Washington team. So another line that just stinks
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: to holy hell this week. Um, don't do not like
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: get I don't. I don't trust it on the fact
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: that Washington has done nothing but think about this team
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: in this game for two weeks. That's got to be
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: a big deal. Like it's it's I can't hear the
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: fact they've just had to prep for this team while
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: the Giants to go and get their ass kicked by
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: the Giant, by the Eagles, and I gotta turn around
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: and go play another primetime game against Washington. So I
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: get exactly where Chad's coming from. Can't fault them for it.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: It's the smart move. Um, I can't back it. As
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: we say here on Tuesday, the Rams are on the road,
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: that's all you gotta. You never buttle I love it.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: I I what you're saying makes me nervous because it's
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: never a gooting. I'm on the opposite side of you
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: when you're on the road dog as I think you're
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: over four this year going against the road Dogs. And
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: and what's annoying is, look, I play it by the
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: book generally, and I get where you're coming from on
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: this one, and like that's just what the book says
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: to me. And you've made some really good points, like
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: you gotta play the teams that you get to the
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: end of the year. But I don't think the Commanders
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: are anything special. I know, just be careful this line.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: It stinks, stinks, stinks, stinks. Smelly cheese. Rams plus seven
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: against the Green Bay Packers playing against Aaron Rodgers in
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: the tun draft. Oh my god, football is better with Baker.
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: Football is better when Baker is good and has people's
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: attention and is making comments. It just is has the's
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: something that loves the gamble. I obviously will gamble in
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: this game. Well, this is a this is one of
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: those people should just take off. This is a horrible
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: game between two just bad quarterbacks. No, no, there's nothing here.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, like the funny thing is in August, this
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: game is amazing, Like, oh my god, we get Green
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Bay the Rams in a week fourteen or fifteen in
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: the snow, they'll both be fighting for playoff positions. Where
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: now these guys are both fighting for the bottom of
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: the barrel. Um just bad teams. So when two bad
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: teams matched up like this, I take the seven, I'll
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: take the I'll take the points with Baker zero faith
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: in catching that ticket probably only have a penny on it,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: but this is this is the time I backed that number.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: It's who the hell are is green Baby catching over seven? Points.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: They're terrible, So yeah, I'll take seven points with Baker. Here,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: can I say something, Yeah, I want to change my
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: exact decision, thank you. I want to go with the
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Colts plus four. There the choice between the unthinkable and
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: the impossible. Exec decision. I would have to on that
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: in the beginning, and I forgot and then I felt
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: like I couldn't go back because we moved down to
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: the Bears and I couldn't go back, and then we
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: got the Jacks. I'm like, funk, I just completely whipped
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: on it. And I went through the rest of the schedule,
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: and I was looking at all the games and it
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: came down to the to the Bengals and the Giants
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: and and the Titans, and I felt like the Giants
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: were the best of all those. But I think I
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: feel best about the Colts. I like it too. Yeah, alright,
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: the Vikings just play close games. I'm going back to
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: the Colts. That's my exact decision. Colts plus four. Giants
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: think it's people burn those Giants burn him. I hope,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: I really hope people listening didn't bet the Giants right
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: away at four and a half, because even honest to God,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: even I like normally when we're talking about this, I'm
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: making bets at the same time we're talking about these numbers.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Even I didn't pull the trigger on the Giants, I
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: put the bet slipped in. I'm like, wait a second,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: all right, Bears plus nine, Fox all Son and says,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Jacks plus four and a half exact decision, and Cults
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: plus four our leans. Right now we will be putting
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: in five for the context. No more buys, Seahawks plus
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: three and a half, Cults plus four, Bears plus nine,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: Jags four and a half. We're watching the Titans, Miami,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, and the Texans, and of course things could
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: change over the course of the next few days that
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: make us think even differently about these things. So full slate,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: no buys. We've given you all we can give you
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: timean here you got, you got Thursdays, you got Saturdays,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: you got Sunday, and you got Monday. Just never ending
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: football games. Uh. I know this is pathetic, But when
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: I woke up this morning, I was going to the bathroom,
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: and as I was going to the bathroom, my thoughts
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: to myself, we got NFL football four out of seven
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: days of the week. No, it's good life. It's a
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: really good life. I am Chad Mellman. He is Simon Hunter.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: Our producer extra ordinaris Matt Mitchell. This has been the
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Please download us
• 1:00:05
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• 1:00:10
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• 1:00:13
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• 1:00:15
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• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: a gift Until next time. I love you Yeah. Action
• 1:00:26
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• 1:00:31
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