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Murder In Moscow: The Moscow Murders And The 48 Hour Rule · Beyond The Horizon

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  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the program. The first 48 hours of
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  Speaker 1: a homicide investigation are usually pretty critical. However, if a
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  Speaker 1: case isn't solved in the first 48 hours, that doesn't
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  Speaker 1: mean it's going to go cold. Now, for me, I
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  Speaker 1: think the most important part is the evidence, right? How
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  Speaker 1: long the evidence is sitting there before the police get
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  Speaker 1: a look at that evidence, because things can deteriorate. Things
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  Speaker 1: can walk away. a lot of things can happen to
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  Speaker 1: the crime scene. So I think that's the most crucial
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  Speaker 1: part of these investigations. Not so much the first 48
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  Speaker 1: hours and finding the killer, right? I don't think that's
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  Speaker 1: logical for the most part. Now, of course, sometimes it is.
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  Speaker 1: There's a lot of evidence or there's a witness, something
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  Speaker 1: like that. But in the case that we have here,
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  Speaker 1: there's no way that it's going to be solved that quickly,
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  Speaker 1: 48 hours or whatever, if there's no ties that bind.
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  Speaker 1: And if the police don't have any quality DNA or
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  Speaker 1: any quality test results from the lab and up until
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  Speaker 1: this point, they haven't had those. Now they're starting to
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  Speaker 1: get those in. But up until this point, they haven't
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  Speaker 1: had those. So if you don't have all of that stuff,
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  Speaker 1: it's very difficult to try and, you know, move a
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  Speaker 1: case forward because you're working on basically speculation and what
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  Speaker 1: you see in the crime scene. But collecting that evidence
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  Speaker 1: that gets sent off And the period between the time
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  Speaker 1: the police arrived and the time that the person died
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  Speaker 1: and the time that evidence was collected, that's the crucial
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  Speaker 1: hours for me. So today we have an article from
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  Speaker 1: News Nation. And in this article, they're talking about how
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  Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that the case is going to be
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  Speaker 1: cold if it's not solved in 48 hours. Because there
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  Speaker 1: is a lot of talk about that, right? A lot
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  Speaker 1: of people are nervous or scared that the case isn't
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  Speaker 1: going to be solved. Now, I'm certainly not there yet,
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  Speaker 1: not by a long shot, but I understand why people
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  Speaker 1: have some concerns. This article was authored by Andrew Dorn. Headline.
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  Speaker 1: Amid Idaho case, many killings aren't solved in 48 hours.
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  Speaker 1: There's a general rule of thumb when it comes to
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  Speaker 1: homicide investigations. The longer the case goes without an arrest,
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  Speaker 1: the less likely it is to be solved. Now that's
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  Speaker 1: a fact. However, 48 hours, that's a bit of a stretch.
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  Speaker 1: This is often thought of as the 48-hour rule or
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  Speaker 1: the first 48, as the popular A & E show
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  Speaker 1: is named. It's based on the idea that the first
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  Speaker 1: two days are the most crucial in an investigation. Maybe
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  Speaker 1: not in the overall investigation, but the collection of evidence.
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  Speaker 1: That's the most crucial part. And when you don't have
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  Speaker 1: a you know, pure crime scene and uncontaminated crime scene,
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  Speaker 1: it's very difficult for you to collect that evidence that
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  Speaker 1: you're going to need as an investigator to build this
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  Speaker 1: proper roadmap to lead you to the killer. After the
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  Speaker 1: first two days, competing resources, competing interests, perishable evidence, alibis,
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  Speaker 1: all of these things become increasingly problematic, said Michael Arntfield,
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  Speaker 1: a criminologist and co-director of the Murder Accountability Project, a
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  Speaker 1: nonprofit that focuses on unsolved murders. And it's a pretty
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  Speaker 1: cool website, a cool resource to check out. Obviously, if
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  Speaker 1: you're listening to this podcast, you're into true crime. So
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  Speaker 1: if you haven't checked out the Murder Accountability Project, That's
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  Speaker 1: certainly something you might want to click on. The 48-hour
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  Speaker 1: adage will come as no comfort to those in Moscow, Idaho,
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  Speaker 1: where nearly three weeks ago, four University of Idaho students
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  Speaker 1: were found stabbed to death in an off-campus home. Authorities
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  Speaker 1: have yet to identify a suspect or find a murder
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  Speaker 1: weapon in the case, but that doesn't mean it's gone cold.
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  Speaker 1: And I said this earlier. I don't want people to
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  Speaker 1: think that it's a cold case because there's no arrest yet.
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  Speaker 1: These things take time. And while we all want things
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  Speaker 1: to come to a conclusion quickly, and we all want
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  Speaker 1: the person to be held responsible, it's going to take
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  Speaker 1: some time. Without there being that direct witness or a
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  Speaker 1: direct line to the person who did this, they have
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  Speaker 1: to go through all of these steps. Although data can
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  Speaker 1: be difficult to trace, multiple analyses have found that most
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  Speaker 1: homicide investigations don't lead to an arrest in the first
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  Speaker 1: 48 hours. Well, a lot of that has to do
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  Speaker 1: with the fact that there's not a lot of resources
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  Speaker 1: to go around in most homicide cases, right? Big cities,
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  Speaker 1: if they're turning a lot of homicides, they're not going
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  Speaker 1: to be able to solve these homicides in 48 hours
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  Speaker 1: for the most part, unless again, you have that direct
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  Speaker 1: witness or something. A Washington Post report from 2018 examined
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  Speaker 1: 8000 homicide arrests across 25 major cities and discovered that
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  Speaker 1: only 30 percent of cases had an arrest in the
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  Speaker 1: first two days. About two thirds of the arrests were
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  Speaker 1: made within one month after the incident. So we're not
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  Speaker 1: at the month mark yet, but we're steadily creeping. And honestly,
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  Speaker 1: there's no way to sugarcoat the fact that the investigators
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  Speaker 1: are certainly working against the clock. But for cases that
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  Speaker 1: remained unsolved after one year, just 5% ultimately led to
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  Speaker 1: an arrest, the Post determined. A separate 2021 murder analysis
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  Speaker 1: in the New York Times found that the amount of
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  Speaker 1: time it takes to clear a murder varies widely from
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  Speaker 1: city to city. Of course it does. The quality of policing,
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  Speaker 1: how good your homicide division is, how much resources you have,
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  Speaker 1: how much help they have as far as logistically matters.
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot that goes into it. And these bigger
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  Speaker 1: cities that might have more resources or these richer counties
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  Speaker 1: with more money, well, they're going to have a better
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  Speaker 1: shot to turn over some of these homicides and clear
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  Speaker 1: some of these cases. Just two of the 13 police
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  Speaker 1: agencies studied cleared more than half of their murder cases
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  Speaker 1: within the first 48 hours. The Times found, at the
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  Speaker 1: higher end, police in Louisville, Kentucky solved 62% of homicides
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  Speaker 1: in the first 48 hours. That's pretty damn good, honestly.
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  Speaker 1: Whereas authorities in St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago cleared murder
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  Speaker 1: cases in the first two days less than 25% of
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  Speaker 1: the time. And they have a heavier load, right? If
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  Speaker 1: you're working in Chicago, my guess is you're catching a
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  Speaker 1: ton of bodies if you're working in homicide. Have you
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  Speaker 1: taken a look at the news lately? What Chicago looks
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  Speaker 1: like on a weekend? So yeah, they're going to have
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  Speaker 1: a tougher time you know, turning these cases and closing
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  Speaker 1: out these homicides in a short period of time. Much
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  Speaker 1: of the discrepancy can be explained by the sheer number
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  Speaker 1: of homicides and thus the amount of resources available for
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  Speaker 1: each case. So that shouldn't come into play here, right?
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  Speaker 1: Let's make that very clear. They have more resources right
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  Speaker 1: now in Moscow than they know what to do with.
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  Speaker 1: You have federal agencies. You have a million dollar grant
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  Speaker 1: given to you by the governor. You have the FBI
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  Speaker 1: there with all of their resources. So there's no excuse
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  Speaker 1: about resources. The more resources, the more detectives that are
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  Speaker 1: available to work a case, be it a murder or
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  Speaker 1: a non-fatal shooting, the more likely you are to find
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  Speaker 1: that really important evidence, said Jeff Asher, the co-founder of A.H. Datalytics,
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  Speaker 1: who authored the New York Times report. And that's just
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  Speaker 1: common sense. The more hands on deck, the better chance
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  Speaker 1: you have of finding the person responsible. So they have
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  Speaker 1: all hands on deck here. And I'm certainly not questioning that,
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  Speaker 1: not in the least. My biggest issue is what happened
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  Speaker 1: in that time frame from when these kids were murdered
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  Speaker 1: to the time that those bodies were found by the police.
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  Speaker 1: With local, state, and federal law enforcement investigating, the importance
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  Speaker 1: of significant resources bodes well for a case like University
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  Speaker 1: of Idaho killings. There are other factors working in law
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  Speaker 1: enforcement's favor. The size of the town. and the manner
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  Speaker 1: of the killings. Yeah, I guess you could say that,
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  Speaker 1: the manner of the killings for sure. Up close and personal,
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  Speaker 1: using a knife, possibility of DNA being sprayed everywhere. Absolutely.
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  Speaker 1: But the town being small? Well, I guess that would
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  Speaker 1: work in the favor of these investigators if it's somebody
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  Speaker 1: who's local. In a small community like Moscow, Arnfield says,
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  Speaker 1: the pool of potential suspects is more stable than a
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  Speaker 1: large urban area. Yeah, that also means they go through
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  Speaker 1: that pool quicker. And now, remember, we're already three weeks
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  Speaker 1: into this. Do you think the local population, the local
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  Speaker 1: pool of suspects has not been absolutely looked at and
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  Speaker 1: went over with a fine-tooth comb? Those are the low-hanging fruit.
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  Speaker 1: Those are the people that have to be looked at first.
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  Speaker 1: And both experts agreed stabbings, as opposed to gun-related homicides,
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  Speaker 1: are more likely to result in DNA evidence, either on
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  Speaker 1: a murder weapon or left by the perpetrator at the scene.
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  Speaker 1: that investigators can use to identify a suspect. But if
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  Speaker 1: the perpetrator isn't in the system and you run that DNA,
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  Speaker 1: it's going to come back, but you're not going to
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  Speaker 1: have a hit or a match. But cases near college
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  Speaker 1: campuses also present unique challenges. Social circles are vast and ever-changing.
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  Speaker 1: Student schedules tend to be more irregular than someone working
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  Speaker 1: a 9-to-5 job, and living situations can be fluid. I'll
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  Speaker 1: play devil's here and say this because those social circles
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  Speaker 1: might be so vast and all of that jazz that's
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  Speaker 1: fine and well but all of those social circles are
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  Speaker 1: localized it's not like these kids were up in seattle
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  Speaker 1: partying they were all hanging out in moscow maybe in
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  Speaker 1: pullman or something like that but for the most part
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  Speaker 1: the social circles shouldn't be far away and they should
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  Speaker 1: have been the first people investigated especially considering all of
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  Speaker 1: the resources that are available to this investigation You've got
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  Speaker 1: four different people who are socially active, engaging with dozens,
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  Speaker 1: if not hundreds of people virtually, said Arnfield. Their routines
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  Speaker 1: become very difficult for police to nail down. And there's
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  Speaker 1: no doubt there's a little bit of that going on.
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  Speaker 1: The police are, you know, they're up against it. But
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  Speaker 1: I would think that them being in sororities and a
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  Speaker 1: fraternity would make it easier to pin down their social circles.
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  Speaker 1: At the very least, eliminate people from who might have
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  Speaker 1: done it, Arnfield said he suspects there is physical evidence
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  Speaker 1: at the scene, but that the offender may not be
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  Speaker 1: in the DNA databank, which would mean investigators have nothing
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  Speaker 1: to compare it to. He said that's more common than
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  Speaker 1: many people realize. That's a fact. That's definitely a fact.
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  Speaker 1: And the DNA is only as good as what they
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  Speaker 1: can run it against. Now they can file that DNA
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  Speaker 1: so that if they do catch a suspect, they can
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  Speaker 1: run his DNA against what they have filed. But if
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  Speaker 1: they just have DNA with no connectors to it, it's
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  Speaker 1: really not doing them any good. On Wednesday, hundreds of
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  Speaker 1: community members gathered for a vigil to honor the victims.
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  Speaker 1: Ethan Chapin, Madison Mogan, Zanna Kernodle, and Kaylee Goncalves. At
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  Speaker 1: the vigil, Steve Gonsalves, Kaylee's father, disclosed that his daughter
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  Speaker 1: and Mogan were killed together in the same bed. He
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  Speaker 1: said Kaylee and Madison were lifelong best friends who were
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  Speaker 1: together until the end. And it's my deepest hope, my
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  Speaker 1: deepest hope, that none of these kids suffered at the
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  Speaker 1: end here. Hopefully it wasn't something that they had to
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  Speaker 1: suffer through. I don't even want to think about that, honestly.
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  Speaker 1: It's so heinous, so disgusting, and so unnerving that I
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  Speaker 1: don't even want to think about it. And to think
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  Speaker 1: about the way her dad feels or any of these parents,
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  Speaker 1: it is just beyond the pale. No parent should ever,
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  Speaker 1: ever have to deal with their child dying and being
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  Speaker 1: killed or murdered. It is just unimaginable for most of us.
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  Speaker 1: But now this is the reality that these parents, these friends,
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  Speaker 1: these family members are going to have to live with forever.
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  Speaker 1: And there's no going back. There's no fixing it. All
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  Speaker 1: there is now is the pursuit of justice. And hopefully
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  Speaker 1: that happens very quickly. All right, everybody, that's going to
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  Speaker 1: do it for this episode. If you'd like to contact me,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: you can do that at bobbycapucci at protonmail.com. That's B-O-B-B-Y-C-A-P-U-C-C-I
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: at protonmail.com. You can also find me on Twitter at
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: B-O-B-B-Y underscore C-A-P-U-C-C-I. The link that I discussed can be
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: found in the description box.