Latest / WCHS Network Podcasts / 07/20/2026 Retire Right Radio with John Burdette

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07/20/2026 Retire Right Radio with John Burdette · WCHS Network Podcasts

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Speaker 1: The views and opinions expressed on this program do not
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Speaker 1: necessarily reflect the views and opinions of five ADWCHS, its
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Speaker 1: employees or WVRC Media. This is retire Right Radio, a
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Speaker 1: weekly show from John Verdett at Fourth Avenue Financial that
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Speaker 1: aims to answer your questions about financial planning, investing, and
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Speaker 1: how to retire right. Fourth Avenue Financial is located in
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Speaker 1: downtown Charleston at one seventy Court Street. More information online
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Speaker 1: at Fourth Avenue Financial dot com. Join the conversation by
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Speaker 1: calling three oh four three four five fifty eight fifty
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Speaker 1: eight or text three oh four nine three five fifty
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Speaker 1: oh eight. On retire right Radio, Let's go live to
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Speaker 1: the studio with host Dale Cooper and John Verdett from
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Speaker 1: Fourth Avenue Financial.
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Speaker 2: And a very happy, good Monday morning to you out there.
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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in Monday morning on five ADWCHS. We
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Speaker 2: are the voice of Charleston. John Burdett from Fourth Avenue
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Speaker 2: Financial is in studio with us this morning and he
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Speaker 2: can show you how to retire right.
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Speaker 3: John, Good morning, how you doing this morning?
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Speaker 4: Pretty good? I can show them if I can see
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Speaker 4: through the smoke.
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Speaker 2: Oh it's a little little are we allowed to talk
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Speaker 2: about that. A little hazy out there, isn't it's a
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Speaker 2: little bad. I was driving back from my mom's yesterday.
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Speaker 2: She lives up in Beaumont, and so we're riding around,
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Speaker 2: winding down through the mountains, just on the highway, you know.
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Speaker 2: But boy, you could really see it starting to settle
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Speaker 2: in last night, at about six o'clock or something like that.
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Speaker 2: You could really see it starting to smell, it settle
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Speaker 2: into the valley here, a little little little bit crazy
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Speaker 2: out there. Hopefully it will blow away or whatever happens
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Speaker 2: to it eventually. Yeah, yeah, that's but it is a
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Speaker 2: little different out there, so it's not haze. There's a
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Speaker 2: little bit of smoke that's in the area coming from
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Speaker 2: the Canadian wildfires. And now there's wildfires out west in
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Speaker 2: the United States and the airs going up into Canada.
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Speaker 2: So we're just like recycling all the smoke here. I
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Speaker 2: guess I don't know. Yes, half some of our wildfires
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Speaker 2: or forest fires, Chris Lawrence will get on you because
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Speaker 2: depending on where you are in the country depends on what.
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Speaker 3: They're called wildfires or forest fires.
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Speaker 2: Oh, didn't didn't know that until that's the things you
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Speaker 2: learn listening to West Virginia Outdoors on Saturday mornings. So
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Speaker 2: institutional knowledge from years of doing that show with Chris.
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Speaker 2: But hey, John can help you see through maybe the
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Speaker 2: haze of your retirement plan this morning. If you want
2:07
Speaker 2: to give us a call, three zero four three four
2:09
Speaker 2: five fifty eight fifty eight is our number three or
2:10
Speaker 2: a four three four five fifty eight fifty eight. You
2:12
Speaker 2: can text threes are four non three five five zero
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Speaker 2: zero eight three zero four non three five five zero
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Speaker 2: zero eight is the way you can get a hold
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Speaker 2: of us this morning. Well, just take a look back
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Speaker 2: and see what happened as far as the market and
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Speaker 2: sort of the take the temperature of the the country
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Speaker 2: in general. Taking a look back to last week, and
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Speaker 2: I mean we're still kind of in this thing where
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Speaker 2: there's crazy stuff happening with is there there's a war
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Speaker 2: again now? So I mean we've confirmed that on like
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Speaker 2: two weeks ago where it was over again. Now it's the.
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Speaker 4: Oil prices are are back, not a little bit high, they're.
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Speaker 2: A little bit higher, but the rest of the market
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Speaker 2: just kind of shrugs a lot of this stuff off.
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Speaker 4: Now, a big sector rotation going on in the market,
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Speaker 4: which really probably would have gone on with or without
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Speaker 4: the war, just because of the way the market were.
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Speaker 4: But you know, the the big chip stocks and tech
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Speaker 4: stocks make up such a large percentage of the s MP.
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Speaker 4: So last week the SMP was down about one percent,
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Speaker 4: roughly taking a little breather a little bit off the
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Speaker 4: off the run up we've had, we've really been on
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Speaker 4: a trading pattern for a while, and and in that
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Speaker 4: trading pattern there definitely has been uh, some noticeable rotation
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Speaker 4: out of those some of those chip stocks and tech
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Speaker 4: tech stocks and into other areas of the market. You know,
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Speaker 4: you're seeing healthcare and industrials and consumer stocks, things of
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Speaker 4: that nature. They've actually been going up while the the
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Speaker 4: tech stocks have have been kind of in the doldrums
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Speaker 4: here for a little bit. And because the tech stocks
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Speaker 4: make up such a large percentage of the indexes with
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Speaker 4: when those aren't participating, even though the underlying probably a
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Speaker 4: more number of stocks have done well, it hasn't been
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Speaker 4: enough to really break into new hives because of the
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Speaker 4: weight of the the tech stocks and the indexes.
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Speaker 2: So this rotation and this broadening that that we're seeing
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Speaker 2: a little bit, like you said, it may have been
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Speaker 2: a natural inclination of things anyway. You know, tex stocks
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Speaker 2: AI sort of the undertow from a and stuff was
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Speaker 2: burning very, very hot. So it's probably a natural sort
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Speaker 2: of cycle that we see people starting to you know,
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Speaker 2: whatever the reasons are. I mean, some people are skeptics.
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Speaker 2: Some people would just think that you need to slow
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Speaker 2: down a little bit. Some people are now seeing opportunities
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Speaker 2: in other areas. Whatever it might be. But that seems healthy.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, lots of money have poured into those
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Speaker 4: those companies over the last several years. Now people are
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Speaker 4: starting to have the question of will all of these
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Speaker 4: investments pay off in revenue and earnings, all these billions
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Speaker 4: and billions of dollars, will that pay off? And so
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Speaker 4: now earning a rep worts are being looked at a
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Speaker 4: little a little closer, looking at the capex spending that
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Speaker 4: these companies made to see if if there are actual
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Speaker 4: results that follow. And you know, so far tech earnings
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Speaker 4: are growing faster than the rest of the market, but
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Speaker 4: they need to because so much money and so much
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Speaker 4: capital has been put there to fund that. So you know,
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Speaker 4: we're getting into earnings will be coming up again. And
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Speaker 4: that's what I think people are going to be keying
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Speaker 4: on you know, how are these companies, you know, all
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Speaker 4: the money they've spent on these data centers and all
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Speaker 4: the things that they're building out for a h are
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Speaker 4: they starting to see revenue growth? You know, profit growth
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Speaker 4: would be great, but revenue growth first. You knows, as
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Speaker 4: a new industry builds out, the profits come usually a
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Speaker 4: little farther down the road. The good thing is most
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Speaker 4: most of these companies are already widely profitable, so it's
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Speaker 4: it's not as if they don't have the the runway
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Speaker 4: or wherewithal to make these investments and and and wait
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Speaker 4: it out a little bit. But the market is going
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Speaker 4: to uh, they've priced in a certain amount of earnings
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Speaker 4: growth and revenue growth into the future, and it needs
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Speaker 4: to hit those those uh those benchmarks or you you know,
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Speaker 4: you could see some price adjustments on those.
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Speaker 2: You can see how tech is sort of trying to
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Speaker 2: adopt and how even some of the big players in this.
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Speaker 2: I read last week where I think Facebook had decided
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Speaker 2: that they would least computing power to anthropic as as
6:42
Speaker 2: part of you know, if if anthropic needs and to
6:44
Speaker 2: help them grow. But that sort of seeds a little
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Speaker 2: bit of the AI space that I think Meta was
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Speaker 2: hoping to h to capture maybe seeds that a little bit,
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Speaker 2: and they're trying to find a different route maybe to
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Speaker 2: be profitable and that instead of creating the bod itself
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Speaker 2: to to help with some of the computing power. But
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Speaker 2: that's kind of what you would expect in this situation,
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Speaker 2: and companies will kind of find their slots. Not everybody
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Speaker 2: can be the number one chatbot. There's going to be
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Speaker 2: all kinds of ancillary and supportive industries that go along
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Speaker 2: with that, and in these places will find their slots.
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Speaker 4: And there will be winners and losers. I mean, certainly
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Speaker 4: there will be. But there again, if you look this
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Speaker 4: year at the S and P five hundred, overall earnings
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Speaker 4: growth this year is projected to be, believe it or not,
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Speaker 4: about twenty four percent, which is, you know, really really
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Speaker 4: strong growth. Last year it was about fourteen percent. So
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Speaker 4: there's an acceleration of earnings overall, and the tech stocks
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Speaker 4: earnings have been up about projected to be up about
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Speaker 4: sixty three percent this year, up thirty two percent last year.
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Speaker 4: So obviously you know earnings are coming through. It's just
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Speaker 4: does it keep up and is it justified with the
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Speaker 4: amount of money being spent in the capex and some
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Speaker 4: of those companies. Of course, as we know, energy has
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Speaker 4: been the far and the way leader as far as
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Speaker 4: earning growth. Energy companies earnings have averaged over one hundred
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Speaker 4: and twenty percent growth, and that's that's because of the
8:12
Speaker 4: obviously the oil prices. But all across the board you
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Speaker 4: have earnings growth. With the exception of healthcare, there is
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Speaker 4: a downturn that expected this year in healthcare earnings, but
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Speaker 4: pretty much, you know, there's there's strong growth across the
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Speaker 4: board and and accelerating growth over the previous year.
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Speaker 2: And I was reading where there was a couple of breakdowns.
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Speaker 2: You know, the the inflation number is a little noisy
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Speaker 2: because of energy prices being being factored in and so
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Speaker 2: oil goes way up, oil goes way down. That that's
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Speaker 2: big enough to affect the inflation prices just a little bit.
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Speaker 2: But I was reading where some some people that do
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Speaker 2: this for a living, we're trying to factor out oil
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Speaker 2: paces figure out where core inflation stood at. And the
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Speaker 2: best guess is it's basically exactly the same as it
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Speaker 2: was a year ago. That inflation is based the same
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Speaker 2: as it was. It's it's mostly unchanged at the core level.
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Speaker 4: Yes, which doesn't mean prices go down.
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Speaker 3: Right, No, that's the thing. It doesn't mean it means that.
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Speaker 4: They're growing slower.
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Speaker 3: Right.
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Speaker 2: The inflation is a little higher than we would like it,
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Speaker 2: but it's but it's consistent. Yeah, so I guess that, uh,
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Speaker 2: depending on where you feel that that uh, that that
9:18
Speaker 2: that leads uh, that leads us out at And again
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Speaker 2: that's just information that you use to make this not
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Speaker 2: necessarily to make decisions on, but it makes a sum
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Speaker 2: of the hole. It's a part of the hole that
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Speaker 2: that you use to make decisions on.
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Speaker 4: And of course there's a lot of fear too with
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Speaker 4: the with the new FED chair that there might be
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Speaker 4: this pressure for lower rates. That doesn't seem to be
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Speaker 4: the case. You know, some of the comments that have
9:40
Speaker 4: been made there leads you to believe that there's not
9:43
Speaker 4: going to be much change in policy. It's going to
9:46
Speaker 4: be a wait and see rather than rushing to to
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Speaker 4: cut rates to make sure that the inflation is is
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Speaker 4: in check.
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Speaker 2: It's kind of strange, how noisy that was, right, Like
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Speaker 2: the whole thing about the FED chair and doing the
9:58
Speaker 2: right you know what, and then like there's a change
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Speaker 2: and it's basically the same.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I mean there's there's not a huge and.
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Speaker 4: In this environment, there's going to be noise about everything.
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Speaker 4: You know, who left the light on in the west.
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Speaker 2: Going back to what you said a minute ago, with
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Speaker 2: a little bit of a secret of rotation, I was seeing,
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Speaker 2: like you mentioned about the about tech and semiconductors, and
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Speaker 2: I was seeing one of the hugest e f ts
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Speaker 2: dropped nine percent in just a week. They've been dropping
10:24
Speaker 2: relatively consistently over the last few months. And then Chinese, Uh,
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Speaker 2: there's a new AI model that they announced called Moonshot
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Speaker 2: that really rocked the market a little bit because again
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Speaker 2: they and their claims are always.
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Speaker 3: Pond the sky.
10:37
Speaker 2: You know, we did this for a fraction of this
10:39
Speaker 2: and a month later you find out that they lied
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Speaker 2: about a lot of stuff. I mean, frankly, that's just
10:43
Speaker 2: the way that it works. But that didn't put a
10:45
Speaker 2: little bit of a rock into the market. But going
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Speaker 2: back to what you said last week is when banks
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Speaker 2: reported earnings, zoom zoom, zoom to the moon. I mean
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Speaker 2: the banks were just off the charts.
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Speaker 3: Yeah.
10:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I say, there's there's a lot of good
10:57
Speaker 4: stuff underpinning the market and and and it is it
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Speaker 4: is a a I guess, you know, one of those things.
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Speaker 4: There's a separation between what's going on in the news
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Speaker 4: that you see every day and the underlying health of companies.
11:15
Speaker 4: And it seems like it shouldn't it shouldn't quite go
11:19
Speaker 4: together that way, but it is. You know, corporate profits
11:23
Speaker 4: are strong. When corporate profits are strong, you know, you
11:27
Speaker 4: typically are going to see the market do well. And
11:31
Speaker 4: and you also see things like employees, uh, you know,
11:37
Speaker 4: and their wages tend to rise in in some of
11:40
Speaker 4: those environments. When when you look at it, that's what's happened.
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Speaker 4: Even though we have inflation that is higher than we'd like,
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Speaker 4: employee wages have have been slightly outstripping the rising costs.
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Speaker 4: So you know, it's not an overnight catch up from
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Speaker 4: the inflation we had a few years ago when when spiked.
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Speaker 4: But but at least now we're starting to slowly make
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Speaker 4: some of that ground back up. They're again not in
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Speaker 4: actual you know, dollars, we'll never see things trading in
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Speaker 4: those dollars again, but the purchasing power of our labor
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Speaker 4: is growing, you know, in the market, in the marketplace,
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Speaker 4: and that's that's a healthy thing.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, you always want to see that happen. I mean
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Speaker 2: that that and that's real results for people now in
12:26
Speaker 2: in the future. I mean, that's something that helps.
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Speaker 4: But they're small and incremental, so it's you know, it's
12:31
Speaker 4: not a headline you know type thing. Uh. You know,
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Speaker 4: everybody sees in the grocery store when the price goes up,
12:39
Speaker 4: and and you know they see their wage too. But
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Speaker 4: it seems like it it it crawls ahead, you know,
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Speaker 4: and and it does, but it but over time, if
12:48
Speaker 4: it's outstripping it by a few percentage points here and there,
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Speaker 4: that adds up.
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Speaker 2: John Berdada is with us this morning for Fourth Avenue
12:55
Speaker 2: Financial online, Fourth Avenue Financial dot com. You spell out
12:57
Speaker 2: the whole thing Fourth Avenue Financial dot com. You can
12:59
Speaker 2: also that page on Facebook by doing that same search,
13:02
Speaker 2: and you can be kept up to date with all
13:03
Speaker 2: the information that's going on over at Fourth Avenue Financial.
13:06
Speaker 2: We'll get you the contact information and things as we
13:08
Speaker 2: go along here a little bit more this morning. If
13:11
Speaker 2: you have questions for John, you're more than welcome to
13:13
Speaker 2: goes to call this morning. Three zero four three four
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Speaker 2: five fifty eight fifty eight three zero, four, three, four, five,
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Speaker 2: fifty eight fifty eight text threes or a four non
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Speaker 2: three five five zeros or eight one more thing just
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Speaker 2: in with sort of this rotation that we're talking about.
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Speaker 2: If you're somebody that's been you know, if you've been
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Speaker 2: following the tech industries, and maybe you do a little
13:30
Speaker 2: bit first and foremost, if if John is your your advisor,
13:35
Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about this quite as much
13:36
Speaker 2: because this is the type of thing that John looks
13:38
Speaker 2: out for. But if somebody handles this stuff on their own,
13:41
Speaker 2: and maybe they're looking into some different funds that had
13:44
Speaker 2: that had some of these tex stocks and things like that,
13:47
Speaker 2: and now of course they're going to do their job
13:49
Speaker 2: as well and move things around. Maybe you buy some
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Speaker 2: individual stocks or whatever. But this isn't this little bit
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Speaker 2: of a rotation. You've done well up until this point.
13:58
Speaker 2: So you want to make sure that you handle this correct.
14:00
Speaker 2: You don't want to like suddenly cash out all your chicks.
14:03
Speaker 2: You don't want to do that. You want to make
14:04
Speaker 2: sure you handle whatever this rotation is well within your
14:07
Speaker 2: own portfolio.
14:08
Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's where rebalancing comes into play. You know,
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Speaker 4: if you've been all tech and you've outperformed everybody the
14:18
Speaker 4: last couple of years, but now this rotation is working
14:24
Speaker 4: against you. So everybody's outperforming you in the last few months.
14:29
Speaker 4: Where a balance portfolio where you're you're managing those allocations.
14:34
Speaker 4: You know, oh, I've got twenty percent of my money
14:36
Speaker 4: in these growth tech stocks. Now it's thirty percent of
14:40
Speaker 4: my money because that sector of the market grew faster. Well,
14:44
Speaker 4: you want to harvest some of that and redistribute it
14:46
Speaker 4: to keep in balance. So when these major rotations happen,
14:50
Speaker 4: you know, you're you're giving up a little bit in
14:52
Speaker 4: the in the in the big years, but you're also
14:55
Speaker 4: maintaining stability in the years where we see rotation and
15:01
Speaker 4: away from those those high flyers by keeping that balance
15:05
Speaker 4: in place. And that really is just as important, maybe
15:09
Speaker 4: more important as a retiree to have a little more
15:12
Speaker 4: stability in a portfolio if you're drawing the money out,
15:16
Speaker 4: the wild swings of a sector of the market work
15:21
Speaker 4: against you. And actually you can see that if you
15:24
Speaker 4: if you actually chart out a distribution strategy and you
15:33
Speaker 4: show the same rate of return over time, but one
15:36
Speaker 4: is more stable versus the other more volatile. Oftentimes the
15:42
Speaker 4: most times the stable one actually performs better with those distributions.
15:48
Speaker 4: Even sometimes if the market itself, the more volatile portfolio
15:53
Speaker 4: performs better. So you might have a long term rate
15:56
Speaker 4: of return of twelve percent in one portfolio and nine
15:59
Speaker 4: percent another, but sometimes the nine percent actually outperforms well.
16:03
Speaker 2: Interesting because in the years where it was still averaging
16:06
Speaker 2: out nine or whatever, that one might have been up
16:08
Speaker 2: and down a little bit.
16:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, imagine if you were imagine two thousand and eight,
16:12
Speaker 4: if you were drawing your money out and the market's
16:14
Speaker 4: down forty percent, will you draw the income you need
16:17
Speaker 4: out Now you're down more than forty percent as far
16:20
Speaker 4: as your portfolio value. It takes a lot to earn
16:24
Speaker 4: that back. You know, a lot of movement. Now it
16:28
Speaker 4: does if you're not drawing money out, But once you
16:32
Speaker 4: each reach retirement age, those volatile swings work against you
16:36
Speaker 4: and you're no longer that long term holder getting that
16:40
Speaker 4: long term average. So those are things you really have
16:43
Speaker 4: to think about as you approach retirement.
16:45
Speaker 2: And as in retirement, really get it from multiple directions
16:47
Speaker 2: when it comes to this, I mean, just in budgeting
16:49
Speaker 2: for something like I mean, obviously fuel it can be
16:52
Speaker 2: an issue right now, especially when it kind of scales
16:54
Speaker 2: a little bit in different directions, but with just the
16:57
Speaker 2: price of groceries and different things like that, whether it's
17:00
Speaker 2: be for lettuce or I mean, whatever it is that
17:02
Speaker 2: it is that you're getting. I mean that affects the retiring.
17:04
Speaker 2: You know, you have a budget that you're setting. You
17:06
Speaker 2: try to figure out what maybe a worst case scenario is,
17:09
Speaker 2: but sometimes you overshoot that or sometimes that there's other
17:12
Speaker 2: pressures that come into place. I mean, that's really effective
17:14
Speaker 2: for folks that are entering retirement or that are in
17:17
Speaker 2: retirement now, which is why it's important to do it
17:20
Speaker 2: right and to have yourself properly invested in to have
17:24
Speaker 2: different options in your income streams and things like that.
17:26
Speaker 2: You don't want to find yourself over the top in
17:29
Speaker 2: one industry or not in a situation where you can
17:31
Speaker 2: generate income in your retirement.
17:33
Speaker 4: And a lot of times there is a big thought that, hey,
17:38
Speaker 4: I've done this for twenty five years in my company
17:41
Speaker 4: retirement plan, it's work. Why do I need to change? Well,
17:45
Speaker 4: you need to change because once you start drawing it out,
17:48
Speaker 4: everything changes and you need to be aware of that
17:52
Speaker 4: or you might be you know, stepping into some trouble
17:56
Speaker 4: that you didn't anticipate because your stage of life is
18:00
Speaker 4: different and your investments have to adjust to that.
18:03
Speaker 2: The other and I guess that this is more of
18:06
Speaker 2: like the psychological profile. But I was looking again at
18:09
Speaker 2: you know, bank earnings are good. Earnings are are very
18:12
Speaker 2: good across the board when you look at the general
18:14
Speaker 2: health of the market. Sure you see some rotation out
18:16
Speaker 2: of out of tech, and you have the war that's
18:19
Speaker 2: going on over in Iran, but consumer sentiment is still
18:24
Speaker 2: pretty shaky for the most part, you know, regardless of
18:27
Speaker 2: what you can tell folks about the market and it's
18:30
Speaker 2: fundamentals or whatever it might be. It's almost like the thing,
18:33
Speaker 2: you know, like on social media, where you send out
18:35
Speaker 2: the incorrect fact first and that gets like a certain
18:38
Speaker 2: amount of traction, and then when you send the correction,
18:40
Speaker 2: it only gets a fraction of that, And so many
18:42
Speaker 2: people have the wrong information in their head for so
18:44
Speaker 2: long because they never see the follow up to it.
18:46
Speaker 2: It seems that that we really celebrate the strength of
18:50
Speaker 2: the market when consumer sentiment is high and there's like, hey,
18:53
Speaker 2: the market's really crank and we're doing great, and that
18:56
Speaker 2: kind of feeds that. But we divorce ourselves from that
18:59
Speaker 2: when the market's doing okay, but whatever it is, our
19:01
Speaker 2: sentiment is not there, and we're kind of divorced from
19:04
Speaker 2: the reality that the market's still doing fine.
19:07
Speaker 4: Yeah, and there again that depends on my guess is
19:11
Speaker 4: how much news you watch.
19:12
Speaker 3: That's probably true.
19:13
Speaker 4: Yeah, Unfortunately, you know, there there's there's the news out
19:17
Speaker 4: there in the world, and then there's you know, the
19:20
Speaker 4: news down the street, and most people the news down
19:23
Speaker 4: the streets not as bad as the headline it is,
19:28
Speaker 4: but it's hard to marry those two things together sometimes.
19:32
Speaker 4: You know, the reality is, are there people hurting in
19:37
Speaker 4: this economy? There certainly are, but and there are people
19:42
Speaker 4: benefiting more than others, for sure. I mean if you certainly,
19:46
Speaker 4: if you own a lot of stocks and and and
19:48
Speaker 4: and investments, you've done pretty well and probably done better
19:52
Speaker 4: than most. Uh and uh. You know, so when you
19:56
Speaker 4: seek that consumer sentiment, certainly some people feel better than others.
20:00
Speaker 4: But overall, you know, consumers wouldn't be spending at a
20:04
Speaker 4: higher pace if overall there wasn't an okay feeling that
20:10
Speaker 4: things are going to be be be solid in the
20:14
Speaker 4: near future, or people would be saving. I mean, that's
20:16
Speaker 4: what's happening in China right now. That's why they're having
20:19
Speaker 4: such struggle. The consumer sentiment over there is so bad
20:23
Speaker 4: that nobody wants to let go of any of their money.
20:27
Speaker 4: You know, they're saving, well, they're saving. That sounds like
20:29
Speaker 4: a good thing to do. It probably is for an individual.
20:33
Speaker 4: But when the whole economy does that, who's spending, who's
20:37
Speaker 4: consuming the goods that are being produced? You know, that's
20:40
Speaker 4: why China is trying to export everything. They're making more
20:43
Speaker 4: stuff than they can consume themselves. It's got to go somewhere,
20:48
Speaker 4: and a lot of times it goes somewhere at a loss,
20:51
Speaker 4: you know, just so they can get rid of it.
20:54
Speaker 2: Not to get into the theory of society or anything,
20:56
Speaker 2: but I'm sure that you know, there's concerned about the
20:58
Speaker 2: China's birth rate and things along those lines. I'm sure
21:01
Speaker 2: if you're if you have low confidence and you don't
21:04
Speaker 2: really and you're worried about money, the last thing you
21:06
Speaker 2: want to do is add to that lack of confidence.
21:09
Speaker 2: You know, we're having a child and whatever that unknown
21:12
Speaker 2: brings into the world. So I mean that is you know,
21:15
Speaker 2: probably a part of that narrative when it comes to
21:17
Speaker 2: their birth rate, and frankly, it might be part of
21:19
Speaker 2: the problem if people you can debate if there is
21:22
Speaker 2: a problem birth rate or not in the United States,
21:24
Speaker 2: but it may even play into that a little bit.
21:25
Speaker 2: If if sentiment is so low, then people don't want
21:27
Speaker 2: to take that quote unquote risk, and then then that
21:31
Speaker 2: really could affect somebody at the pocketric level.
21:33
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, no doubt about it. And you know, you
21:37
Speaker 4: see that in solid economies, birth rate kind of naturally
21:41
Speaker 4: declines because people, you know, they have careers, they maybe
21:47
Speaker 4: delay having children, things of that nature. Most wealthier economies
21:53
Speaker 4: have a lower birth rate than than developing economies do.
21:59
Speaker 4: Is it a problem here? You know, I think it
22:01
Speaker 4: would be nice if we had a little more birth
22:05
Speaker 4: rate to for for replacement, because you know, you want
22:08
Speaker 4: to have a vibrant youth in an economy. You know,
22:15
Speaker 4: they're the ones that that develop and and have to
22:19
Speaker 4: strive to make their lives better. Old folks like us
22:22
Speaker 4: are kind of set certainly.
22:24
Speaker 2: If you ballot down to it to like a regional level.
22:26
Speaker 2: I mean, West Virginia definitely has that problem, you know
22:28
Speaker 2: when you when talk about it. So wherever that is,
22:30
Speaker 2: even if it's just pockets within you know, if you
22:32
Speaker 2: have enough areas like West Virginia in the country, although
22:35
Speaker 2: the city next door might be doing fine, if you
22:37
Speaker 2: have enough of those that are underperforming, that could drive
22:39
Speaker 2: down the whole thing. And and I think unfortunately West
22:41
Speaker 2: Virginia is probably a microcosm of that.
22:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, so so youth. You know, if you look
22:45
Speaker 4: at the cities in America that are growing, I mean
22:47
Speaker 4: there are a lot of times have a lot of
22:50
Speaker 4: college students, you know, have a lot of a lot
22:53
Speaker 4: of young people rare in to go and and uh,
22:57
Speaker 4: you know, start their lives out and that and that
22:59
Speaker 4: creates consumption and and like you say, some some countries
23:04
Speaker 4: are are much worse off than than than we are
23:07
Speaker 4: in that that department. But it is an economic issue.
23:11
Speaker 4: I mean it really long term will have an impact on,
23:15
Speaker 4: you know, how well the global economy does if if
23:20
Speaker 4: we have a shrinking population.
23:22
Speaker 2: I remember the owner of the mortgage company that I
23:25
Speaker 2: used to manage for This was back in the houseyon
23:28
Speaker 2: days of mortgages, but kind of an old school business guy,
23:35
Speaker 2: loquacious to the point of of of h He's selling
23:39
Speaker 2: ice cube to a polar bear type of thing, right,
23:41
Speaker 2: But his whole thing was to his staff was anytime
23:44
Speaker 2: that he heard about somebody getting ready to go out
23:46
Speaker 2: and buy a car, getting ready to buy a house,
23:49
Speaker 2: whatever it might be, he would go out of his way, like,
23:51
Speaker 2: do you need some time off, you need you need
23:53
Speaker 2: to go buy that because because the thing was it
23:55
Speaker 2: was a commissioned job, and he's like, if you're buying
23:56
Speaker 2: a car, you're gonna be working twice as hard next month.
23:58
Speaker 2: His whole thing was like, get into as much debt
24:01
Speaker 2: as you can because that means you're going to work
24:02
Speaker 2: harder for me, which which seems very selfish, but there
24:06
Speaker 2: is something to that, I mean. And a lot of
24:07
Speaker 2: the people we hired were self starters, were relatively young,
24:09
Speaker 2: and things like that. So these were people that saw,
24:12
Speaker 2: you know, maybe in this day and age, your first
24:14
Speaker 2: paycheck might have been ten grand, and suddenly they're ready
24:17
Speaker 2: to consume. They want to go out and put that
24:19
Speaker 2: down payment down on a car, they want to go
24:20
Speaker 2: out and buy that house, or buy a computer, whatever
24:23
Speaker 2: it might be. They were ready to consume because the
24:26
Speaker 2: industry was one where you could get into with relatively
24:28
Speaker 2: low barriers and make a pretty good amount of money,
24:31
Speaker 2: and people were ready to consume, and we need people
24:33
Speaker 2: to consume.
24:34
Speaker 3: That's not a bad fate.
24:35
Speaker 4: Absolutely, you know, if who's going to buy what we
24:38
Speaker 4: produces any consumers.
24:40
Speaker 2: So that was a good advice from old Jim Rice.
24:42
Speaker 2: I think that was pretty good advice from him. It'll
24:44
Speaker 2: make it work twice as hard.
24:45
Speaker 3: Let's do this.
24:46
Speaker 2: We have a couple of text messages as it came in.
24:47
Speaker 2: We'll get those when we come back. Let's go ahead
24:49
Speaker 2: and take our break. We can come back and we
24:51
Speaker 2: could get some calls and text in. If you want
24:52
Speaker 2: to call John, you're more than welcome to do that.
24:54
Speaker 2: Three zero four three four five fifty eight fifty eight
24:56
Speaker 2: is our phone line this morning where you can get
24:57
Speaker 2: in and get some expert advice on how to manage
24:59
Speaker 2: your portfolio into retirement, how to retire right three zero
25:02
Speaker 2: four three four five fifty to fifty eight. You can
25:04
Speaker 2: text three zero four non three five five zero zero eight.
25:07
Speaker 2: John Bredet is here from Fourth Avenue Financial Online, Fourth
25:10
Speaker 2: Avenue Financial dot com. Their phone number three zero four
25:13
Speaker 2: seven four six seven one seven seven. We'll give all
25:15
Speaker 2: that again when we come back. We'll take a break
25:17
Speaker 2: and be back right after this. I'm del Cooper you're
25:19
Speaker 2: listening to retire Right Radio with JOBREDBT on five ADWCHS,
25:22
Speaker 2: the voice of Charleston.
25:23
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26:16
Speaker 6: The savings are on all summer long at Walker Chevrolet
26:20
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27:01
Speaker 4: Back from Myrtle Beach.
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Speaker 6: The new car, truck or suv you've been dreaming of
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27:16
Speaker 7: This is retire Right Radio with John Burdett from Fourth
27:20
Speaker 7: Avenue Financial, taking your calls at three oh four three
27:24
Speaker 7: four five fifty eight fifty eight.
27:26
Speaker 1: Or text on three oh four nine three five fifty
27:29
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27:39
Speaker 3: It is this. It's about eleven minutes the hour.
27:45
Speaker 2: You got hold and you are listening to We're Sorry
27:48
Speaker 2: Right Radio one five e W you see HS the
27:50
Speaker 2: voice for Charles and give John a call. Three zero
27:52
Speaker 2: four three four five fifty eight fifty eight. Three zer
27:54
Speaker 2: four three four five fifty eight fifty eight is our
27:55
Speaker 2: phone line number this morning. And also text in any questions.
27:58
Speaker 2: You have to three zero four non three five five
28:00
Speaker 2: zero zero eight. This one came in a little bit
28:02
Speaker 2: earlier and someone maybe listening. Uh, let's see online from
28:06
Speaker 2: the threeser of four six nine to two h Let's see.
28:11
Speaker 2: I got a bunch of money and a tech fund
28:13
Speaker 2: that I bought myself and it got pretty got hit
28:16
Speaker 2: pretty hard last week. Do I wait this out or
28:20
Speaker 2: is this something that I should do something about?
28:24
Speaker 4: Well, that's a great crystal ball question.
28:27
Speaker 3: You can't predict that one.
28:28
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, No you can't. But I would look at your
28:33
Speaker 4: overall portfolio and just see what percentage that particular fund
28:38
Speaker 4: is in your overall portfolio, it's okay if a position
28:42
Speaker 4: like that is down pretty hard if it's within a
28:44
Speaker 4: diversified portfolio, because that's just a piece that makes up
28:48
Speaker 4: that portfolio and you're not overweight. If that's your only investment,
28:55
Speaker 4: you know, then it's a matter of, hey, I probably
28:58
Speaker 4: need to take look at this, get a good sound
29:02
Speaker 4: strategy going forward that is diversified, that is covering all
29:06
Speaker 4: the bases and all the sectors in the economy. Uh,
29:09
Speaker 4: and go from there. You know, as far as what
29:12
Speaker 4: you should do tomorrow, you know, that's just a call
29:15
Speaker 4: that you have to make and not know the future.
29:19
Speaker 4: You know you may you may make that change, and
29:23
Speaker 4: you know, tech stocks catch fire next month and you'll
29:27
Speaker 4: feel like, oh, I did the I did the wrong thing.
29:30
Speaker 4: But that's why you don't go all in on something
29:33
Speaker 4: because it creates an emotional cycle that is hard to break,
29:38
Speaker 4: and you end up on a roller coaster where you're
29:40
Speaker 4: buying when it's doing well and then no, no, I'm
29:43
Speaker 4: selling when it's going down, and you're always on the
29:46
Speaker 4: wrong side of that because the emotions are are making
29:49
Speaker 4: the decisions for you, and you know it's probably the
29:54
Speaker 4: best thing generally to take a look and get on
29:58
Speaker 4: the right path as soon as possible and just accept, well,
30:02
Speaker 4: you know, maybe you know in hindsight, you can always
30:07
Speaker 4: look at things and say I should have done this
30:09
Speaker 4: or that. But get on the right path from this
30:12
Speaker 4: point forward is the way I would think about it,
30:16
Speaker 4: because we don't have a crystalot ball of what's going
30:18
Speaker 4: to happen to that sector in the next week or two.
30:22
Speaker 4: You know, it could get worse, it could get better.
30:25
Speaker 4: We don't know. We don't know, but we do know
30:27
Speaker 4: that sound strategy will work over long periods of time.
30:31
Speaker 2: I have two questions that came in here now that
30:34
Speaker 2: that kind of to me kind of match. So I
30:35
Speaker 2: want to read both of these out and we'll see
30:37
Speaker 2: what John has to say about this. First of all,
30:39
Speaker 2: from the three zero four five to three my four
30:40
Speaker 2: one K has been doing fine all year, and then
30:43
Speaker 2: last week it dropped more than it has in a
30:45
Speaker 2: long time. I'm fifty nine. Should I be moving things
30:47
Speaker 2: around or just leave it alone. That's sort of the
30:49
Speaker 2: same question that we just had. But the other question
30:51
Speaker 2: that I that we got in is from the three
30:54
Speaker 2: zero four eight four too. My financial advisor keeps telling
30:57
Speaker 2: me to stay the course. I've been staying the course
30:59
Speaker 2: for three years. What point is staying the course not
31:01
Speaker 2: doing anything? Now with that one, it seems like that, okay,
31:04
Speaker 2: stay the course, but you should see movement in three years,
31:08
Speaker 2: like you shouldn't be down or flatten three years.
31:12
Speaker 4: No, I would think so that that would be that
31:15
Speaker 4: would probably be an issue the way the market is
31:18
Speaker 4: performed now. I think all of these, these last three
31:22
Speaker 4: questions get to the same thing, allocation in what stage
31:26
Speaker 4: of life are you are you in? We've had such
31:30
Speaker 4: a tech heavy movement in the market, it can feel
31:35
Speaker 4: like you're going nowhere if you if you're not heavily
31:37
Speaker 4: invested in those things. But that changed in the last
31:42
Speaker 4: month or so, and so these questions that are happening,
31:48
Speaker 4: you know, tell me that that they probably way out
31:50
Speaker 4: performed in the last few years and now they're taking
31:52
Speaker 4: it on the chin, which which hasn't happened in the
31:57
Speaker 4: near last couple of years. And my guess is from
32:05
Speaker 4: these questions is that there is that over concentration. You know,
32:10
Speaker 4: like I say, if you own a diversified portfolio, you know,
32:15
Speaker 4: maybe you have twenty percent large gap growth, maybe you
32:18
Speaker 4: have ten or fifteen percent international. Maybe you have you know,
32:22
Speaker 4: small caps in the mix, you know, so on and
32:24
Speaker 4: so forth. They're not going to perform the same. So
32:28
Speaker 4: the job really is to own pieces of the market,
32:32
Speaker 4: except that sometimes some will outperform others. But when they
32:35
Speaker 4: do outperform, that's when you Every so often you'll go
32:40
Speaker 4: back in and rebalance. You know, if tech stocks, like
32:44
Speaker 4: I say, grow from twenty percent of your portfolio to
32:46
Speaker 4: thirty and you harvest and redistribute and go back to twenty.
32:51
Speaker 4: When we have things like this, you're not going to
32:53
Speaker 4: feel it as much because you're going to be more
32:55
Speaker 4: broadly diversified.
32:57
Speaker 3: Makes a lot of sense.
32:58
Speaker 4: But at the same time, if if X stocks go up,
33:01
Speaker 4: you're still participating, but you're only going to make twenty percent,
33:05
Speaker 4: while your buddy that's all in might make thirty. But
33:09
Speaker 4: long term, you have a more sound strategy that gives
33:12
Speaker 4: you a higher probability of achieving your goal than the
33:16
Speaker 4: emotional roller coasters that you Statistically most people get on
33:21
Speaker 4: when they are over concentrated in an area. I go
33:27
Speaker 4: back to the nineteen eighties, the Fidelity Magellan Fund by
33:32
Speaker 4: Peter managed by Peter Lynch. It was the best fund
33:35
Speaker 4: of the eighties averaged over fourteen percent a year for
33:37
Speaker 4: a decade. Incredible, But the average person in that only
33:42
Speaker 4: captured about a third of that fourteen percent because they
33:48
Speaker 4: were on the wrong side of that roller coaster. They
33:51
Speaker 4: would buy when the market was up, and then they
33:54
Speaker 4: would sell when they'd panic when the market was down.
33:58
Speaker 4: And it's just human nature and it's hard to overcome that,
34:01
Speaker 4: and it's hard to fight against that. That's what all
34:03
Speaker 4: these questions are alluding to. Yeah, right, yeah, right, that
34:07
Speaker 4: type of a cycle. It's an emotional cycle that it's
34:12
Speaker 4: just natural for us to feel that way. And so
34:15
Speaker 4: you avoid that by by having bits and pieces of
34:19
Speaker 4: everything and just accepting the overall overall market, not a
34:24
Speaker 4: sector of the market, and it will be less volidible
34:27
Speaker 4: just by nature. If you've if you spread your risk,
34:30
Speaker 4: it's going to be less foalible.
34:32
Speaker 2: There's sometimes I tend to run into folks. I don't
34:35
Speaker 2: know if it's ego or PROD or whatever it might be.
34:37
Speaker 2: But with the assumption that with chat GBT and my
34:43
Speaker 2: intelligent brain, which sure lots of smart folks out there,
34:46
Speaker 2: that I can figure these things out there, there's just
34:48
Speaker 2: such a difference between that and somebody that actually knows
34:51
Speaker 2: and has experience in the field and what they're doing
34:53
Speaker 2: that like.
34:54
Speaker 3: The gap is just incredible.
34:55
Speaker 2: And I've done some of the stuff that I've done
34:57
Speaker 2: in research and trying to prep for the show, especially
34:58
Speaker 2: in the past, where you put questions, are trying to.
35:00
Speaker 3: Come up with stuff.
35:01
Speaker 2: It just doesn't get the nuance when you're talking about
35:04
Speaker 2: these things that talking to a real individual person would
35:07
Speaker 2: And that kind of leads me into the last question
35:09
Speaker 2: that I got. This is from the threes four seven two.
35:11
Speaker 2: My wife and I were trying to figure out if
35:12
Speaker 2: we can retire in about five years. We have substantial savings,
35:17
Speaker 2: no investments, and we don't know if that's enough. We
35:19
Speaker 2: don't even know how to ask the question. Is that
35:22
Speaker 2: what Third Half Avenue Financial does. Absolutely, yeah, that's exactly
35:26
Speaker 2: what we do.
35:27
Speaker 4: Seems good, and you know, if you have substantial savings,
35:31
Speaker 4: that's good, but that's unless it's an extremely excessive savings.
35:39
Speaker 4: Over the course of retirement, we know what's going to happen.
35:43
Speaker 4: What's going to happen is prices are going to go
35:45
Speaker 4: up and your income needs are going to go up,
35:48
Speaker 4: and it's going to require more of that savings to
35:51
Speaker 4: meet those needs, you have to turn that savings, at
35:55
Speaker 4: least portions of that savings into productive assets that row
36:00
Speaker 4: to keep up with that. You know, when we work,
36:05
Speaker 4: we are participating in the market of producing our goods
36:07
Speaker 4: and services. Our wayes tend to keep up with that.
36:10
Speaker 4: In retirement, you're not doing that anymore. The companies you
36:13
Speaker 4: own in a portfolio are they're making the goods and services,
36:19
Speaker 4: their earnings tend to keep up with inflation. And if
36:22
Speaker 4: their earnings keep up with inflation, the stock price grows
36:26
Speaker 4: to match that. Historically, that's the best way to deal
36:29
Speaker 4: with inflation owning productive assets.
36:32
Speaker 2: And so.
36:35
Speaker 4: You know, the savings is great, but now it's a
36:38
Speaker 4: matter of turning it into a portfolio that will meet
36:42
Speaker 4: your needs, not just tomorrow and five years from now
36:45
Speaker 4: and ten years from now, but fifteen and twenty years
36:47
Speaker 4: from now.
36:48
Speaker 2: And from my lay position with this question anyway, I
36:51
Speaker 2: would also say that a contacting John for something like
36:54
Speaker 2: this would behoove you as well, because of the tools
36:57
Speaker 2: that you need to know that are available to you
36:58
Speaker 2: to make large and vas like you know, we're used
37:02
Speaker 2: to contributing to a four to one k or whatever
37:04
Speaker 2: it might be. And there's limits to what we can
37:06
Speaker 2: put into certain tools, and so you need to know
37:08
Speaker 2: what tools you can use in the things that you
37:10
Speaker 2: can use. If you're already at that mature age and
37:12
Speaker 2: you're looking to try to invest cash, you need help
37:15
Speaker 2: in doing that because there's certain ways to do it right.
37:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, no doubt about it. And we'll have a conversation
37:20
Speaker 4: when we set down about what's important to you and
37:23
Speaker 4: how you feel about investments. And you know, I may
37:27
Speaker 4: come up with a portfolio that I think is the
37:29
Speaker 4: right portfolio, but maybe you're not comfortable with it. That's fine.
37:33
Speaker 4: We'll talk about that and we'll try to find something
37:36
Speaker 4: that moves you in the direction that you should prudently
37:41
Speaker 4: go into. So it's just not I'm coming in and
37:45
Speaker 4: John says, buy this. That's not how we work.
37:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, you're not an order giver.
37:50
Speaker 4: No, we sit down and we talk about because everyone's different.
37:54
Speaker 4: It does no good to build a portfolio if you
37:56
Speaker 4: can't sleep at night because you're not going to stick
37:59
Speaker 4: to it long term. Time allowed to work.
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Speaker 2: Man, That's that should be the ending quote. I guess
38:03
Speaker 2: right there, because that works out pretty well. That's jombre
38:05
Speaker 2: Dat from Fourth Avenue Financial, just dropping wisdom every Monday
38:09
Speaker 2: right here on retire Right Radio at eight twenty. For
38:11
Speaker 2: all those texts that we just got in, here's your information.
38:14
Speaker 2: Fourth Avenue Financial Online, Fourth Avenue Financial dot Com. Fourth
38:17
Speaker 2: Avenue Financial dot Com. Three zero four seven four six
38:20
Speaker 2: seven non seven seven three zero four seven four six
38:22
Speaker 2: seven non seven seven One more time three zero four
38:25
Speaker 2: seven four six seven non seven seven is how you
38:28
Speaker 2: get hold of Johnberdat, Fourth Avenue Financial. John, thank you
38:30
Speaker 2: so much for your time again this week. All right,
38:32
Speaker 2: take care, so you're back here on Monday. Dave Allan
38:34
Speaker 2: is up next. I'll be back at three oh six
38:36
Speaker 2: this afternoon on hot Line with Dave Weekly. Have a
38:38
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