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Transcript

Felix Prehn - The Stock Market is About to Go Insane + Stock Market News 14 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Felix, here, guys and I wanted to make sure we don't miss our daily update on the market because literally the greatest freaking opportunity in the world just opened up and everything just changed.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: But there are also some potholes, so I want to walk you through the five or six key things you need to understand.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I'll also walk you through some of our most favorite stocks, and especially the ones I've just flipped, so the ones that have gone from don't touch me please to please buy me please.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: And, of course, as always, this isn't financial advice.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: You've got to come to your own conclusions, and the best way you can actually do that is by learning the rules that I use every single day, every single week, and making money on a day like yesterday is easy.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Actually, everybody makes money.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter what you throw your money at, it's going to make you money.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: But it's in weeks where we don't have a big move in the market.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: That's actually where I'm most proud of my winnings, and I would try to get into that frame of mind where we are less excited about making money when the market goes up and more excited about making money when the market doesn't.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: But let me share my screen with you here and you can see what I'm looking up.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Why are we so freaking bullish right now?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Well, there was a an expectation that and if you're wondering why, I'm in can here, which is a rather glorious place in the south of france, and we're in this beautiful hotel, um, where the can film festival is, and it's stacked full with, uh, celebs and celebs and everything else, and it's rather marvelous.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: So that's the fun stuff you can do when you have freedom, because you can hang out wherever you want and tomorrow will be an amazing day with all your friends and just yeah.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Anyway, go back to this.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: This is what the market was worried about.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: See, there was this thing out there that inflation expectations were insanely high.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Somebody this thing out there that inflation expectations was insanely high.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Somebody in the US thought that inflation would go to 8%.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Now, that was, of course, politics.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So, again, try not to let your politics get in the way of making money.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Whether you love Trump, whether you hate Trump, it doesn't matter.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: You elected him as president maybe not you personally, but that system that you call democracy did and therefore you have to put up with it.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: So people thought you would end the world and inflation would go to 8%, which of course is bollocks.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: And then the Republicans maybe a little extremely thought inflation would go to zero, which was also a little extreme, and then you get an average of that, and that was, of course, nonsense.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: But the reality is that inflation came in yesterday and it is falling.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work that out, because while oil prices are down and a lot of other things are down quite significantly and therefore you know, we've got low inflation.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Now, why is low inflation good for us?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Because it means the Fed could actually cut interest rates, because that's really what it's all about.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So CPI at 2.3% is pretty good and it was lower than expected because of this political tilt.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Half the country thought the world was going to shit, so that was good.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: And here it is the surprise in inflation.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: That wasn't really a surprise if you had something between the two ears.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we are basically seeing a massive negative inflation data surprise in the market.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Of course, love's out there celebrating it, and it means that the Magnificent Seven, the big tech stocks, are back above, and that's really, really important.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: You might want to take a note of this.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: They are back above that 150-day moving average line and all of these rules.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I give them away.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I explain it all to you.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: There is a mini masterclass at felixfriendsorg slash.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Get free.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: It's only 15 minutes long, because that seems to be about the attention span of the average human, and it's literally just like where do we buy, where do we sell and how do we get out with profits?
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And again, I would urge you, make sure the profits you've just made if you've made profits or maybe you've gone from negative back to zero or nearby make sure you hold on to that, because the market does not move in a straight line, and that's again really, really an important lesson here.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: So we had a beautiful gap up here.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: We had an amazing bullish candle the day after, and now we're very, very nicely above the 150.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So the MAC7 are basically in buy territory again, which is a huge shift from where we've been.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, you could have sold I'm going to be close here.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: That was the exit up there and that was at about $55.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: This is the MAC7 ETF.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: And then we went all the way down to 39 or something like that, and now we're back up to 50.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: So was it a good point to sell there, yes or no, yeah, of course it bloody was, because what you can do is, if you sell here, you sell at 54, you've got 54 money and now you buy back I'm not telling you you should at 52.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: That's a $2 difference, right?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: That's actually quite significant.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So you made 5% improvement on your wealth and you didn't take the downside pain and risk and you actually put your money into something else because we've been making money all along, right.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So that's important.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Now, even more important than that is that the shorts the bastards.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: By the way, there is actually fundamentally nothing wrong with shorting a stock.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: You only think there is something wrong with shorting a stock if you married a stock and you have a relationship with a stock.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: If you do, maybe tell your wife about that.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I always say marry the girl, don't marry the stock, and we can make money as the stocks go down.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: But I appreciate it isn't a popular thing for most people, so we tend to paint the sort of guys who short as evil somehow.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But the Goldman Sachs data saying the most short stocks well, they absolutely exploded upwards and that, of course, means they're getting squeezed, because if you're short a stock, all it means is you've sold stocks.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: You can do that in a portfolio.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't recommend it necessarily, but you could sell a stock even if you don't own it, and then you have minus one stock.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I have only one position open like that right now it and then you have minus one stock.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I have only one position open like that right now which is not a stock but it's on a sort of volatility related thing and which is making money and to close a short position.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: What do you have to do if you're minus one share?
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: You have to buy the share back, to go back to zero, right?
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So they have to buy shares and if we got more, there will be a lot more forced buying from these guys and that'll be very, very good for le market.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: As they say in france tesla and I love tesla.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I love elon musk.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I think he's one of the smartest guys out there.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Uh, maybe you don't care for his politics.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I don't really care because I'm not american.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I don't really have to care.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I just think he's one of those genius inventing chaps who actually get stuff done.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: And I see the hate rolling in in the comments already, and that's okay.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: By the way, you can disagree, we can disagree, and still be friends.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Well, at least on my side.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: So what do we see on Tesla?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: We also saw a beautiful setup here, very much like on the Mark 7.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So we saw let me get a pen here we saw a gap up here, beautiful candle.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Then yesterday we moved all the way up above that 50-day moving average line here, even higher after hours.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: So very, very, very bullish.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: And I will do another full video on the whole Saudi Middle East deal stuff because there's a lot to unpack there and I think I want to do it in a little bit more structured way.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: So I was just looking into that, reading about that.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I'll put that out for you guys a little later today if you're around and you're subscribed.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're actually back in bullish Tesla buy territory.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So I think to see Tesla back into the 400s seems likely.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: We are going to see a bit of resistance when we hit these lows here and these guys bought up there are going to start to offload.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: $400 will also be definitely resistance From the market makers.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: They're sitting at 350.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So maybe you want to write that one down too here.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: You see that resistance here at 350, that red line.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: That's where the market makers will sell and that is sort of their job really, and we might not like them for it, but that's sort of their job.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So, 350 is something that's going to be a little bit of resistance, as they say here in Cannes, but yeah, very, very bullish setup for big tech right now.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: And this is even more bullish.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: And what's this?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: This is rate cut expectations and we're now looking at well, we're looking at two cuts.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Is that bullish?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Well, we're hoping for more cuts, but if we can have a rally like this with two cuts, I think we'd be fine.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Now, why do I think that we'd be fine?
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Well, I think there are two things to this.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: One is it's the two Ts.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Really, it's tariffs and tax cuts, if you get those.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So, if you actually get more tariff deals and bear in mind, the China deal is a suspension of tariffs, it isn't a deal in itself.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So we have to be careful not to celebrate, you know, till the fat lady sings, so to speak, and therefore there is a risk, as we get to the tail end of the 90 days without a deal, that the markets might tank.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to enjoy that, we're going to make money out of that, we're going to buy all the things that are going to go up in that moment, and I'll tell you more about that if you are a part of my mentorship gang.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: But the most important thing is, like you know, less red card expectations, which sort of doesn't make a lot of sense really, because, well, inflation's down.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Apparently, there's still concerns around the economy maybe a little bit less now because did you see the flip-flops of the banks?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Like about four weeks ago, they all said we expect a recession and now they're saying we actually don't expect a recession.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Like analysts and all those economists in Wall Street banks, they're sheep.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: They follow the crowd.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: And that's also why I don't really pay any attention to analyst price targets, because they move for the market.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: I can tell you now that all of these analysts are going to increase their Tesla price targets because they look a bit silly with a $300 price target and we're trading at $339.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So they're going to move to $350.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: We take out $350, they're going to move it to $3.50.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: We take out $3.50, they're going to move it to $400.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: That's the nonsense game they play.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So pay no attention to those guys.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: But here is one you might want to pay attention to, and that is the funds, the big boys, the ones with all the money.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: They have been buying more stocks than at any time in the last five years, except for what was that?
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: December 2023.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: And that will be largely driven by shorts, right?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So by short covering, a little bit of actual long buying, but most of it is actually short covering and that could, as I say, that could drive us quite a lot higher.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: And now let me run you through a couple more important charts here, and one that I'm very excited about so far.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Because it's a really good business.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: They've got really good management and somehow wall street doesn't want to acknowledge it.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: And I'll tell you why.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: They're a competitor to the buggers on wall street.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: So what do we see?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Well, we actually closed here higher.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: So the fat part of the candle is the open and the close, the tails, are intraday moves, so they're not as important because the fat parts are always more important.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Can you hear the sirens?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I think they're coming for me, straight jacket and all.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: And we actually closed higher than that 29 April earnings breakout there.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: That's quite bullish.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: We've also closed higher.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: So let me draw sort of a trend line backwards here, if I may.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: You see that?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So that was a high here.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: That was a high.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Second high was higher.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Third high is now higher.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: That's quite bullish.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: We're also above the 150 day moving average line.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: The 50 is starting to move up again.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Volume is decent but not tremendous.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: So what are we looking for here?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: It's starting to look very bullish.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: It really is starting to look very bullish again.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I mean you should run out and buy it.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: You need to understand the risk management, my friends.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: That's where the money is made.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Because I see you say risk management, because risk management is actually also profit taking.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So where do I take profits?
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Where do I sell?
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I never do it's just that stops do it for me.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: So I move the stops up when we move up.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: We've got stocks at the moment that are up like 50%, 60% in just two weeks and I moved my stops up on those yesterdays because if something moves like 10% in a day, well, I'm going to kind of want to lock that in, right.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So if we drop significantly below those, well, at those levels, then I take profits and I might not Say it's a 50% up.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: My goal isn't to lock in 50%, my goal is to lock in maybe 43%, 45%, something like that, and that way I allow for a little bit of movement, which means if it comes down a little bit and then bounces higher, I might lock in 60% or 70% or 80%, but, worst case scenario, I lock in 45%, which I'm pretty happy with that.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: So we never try to get the tops of the market.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: We never try to get the bottoms of the market.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: So for everybody who's now going to be screaming at my commentary around AMD, is it you know?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Felix said don't buy it.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I actually still wouldn't buy it, to be honest with you, despite all the good news, although two gaps up in a row, we're getting to a point where this is getting a little silly.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm still not a fan.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I'm much more of a fan of this one here, which is the market leader, which is generally a better place to be, and most of the market seems to agree with me because we're actually above the 150.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: So NVIDIA looks very bullish to me.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Amd I'm still cautious on.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: And it's just, these guys have 90% of the AI market, like 90%.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like going OK.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Well, we also have an operating system.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: It competes with Microsoft Windows.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Well, good luck to you.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: But I'm not going to buy your stock, probably because I could just buy Microsoft.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Which how's Microsoft doing at the moment?
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: It's pretty freaking amazing, isn't it?
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: It's basically hanging out here at the all-time highs, so doing well near the all-time highs.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Look at that gap up there from earnings.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: That's tremendous, isn't it?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So we're looking good.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of opportunity in the market at the moment.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: What I'd say to you is this Don't buy too late.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: And for the stuff that's really extended, so things that have really really, really, really run up a lot, make sure you've got your profit taking in place, because that's where you actually make money.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: The difference between somebody who's everybody starts talking about their portfolio when it's up a lot and then they go quiet when it goes down a lot, and you want to be the person who's just irritatingly, annoyingly, always talking about their portfolio because you lock in those gains and that's the difference between being wealthy and retired and doing whatever the heck you want and between being dependent on the market.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: We don't have to be dependent on the market because there's always a corner of the market, there's always a sector that makes us money, right.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: So we were making our money out of things like gold stocks the last last two weeks and last couple of weeks and and you know, right now they come down a little bit, but not that much.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: We're still at the lows that we were in in may, so I'm actually quite liking the setup.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I'll have a think about it by the end of the week.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: See where we are.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: We might nibble on some more gold stocks, because the market is a cyclical thing.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: So we do Well, we lock in the gains and then we exit them with automations and then we buy the next stuff that's going up.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: We really don't care.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: We're not monogamous with stocks, because that's not how you make money.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Do that with your family, that's very important, but definitely not with stocks.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: We do not care.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: We don't have a deep kind of rooted compassion or conviction for any particular stock, no matter how marvelous you think it might be.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: So all I'd say to you is literally use this recent memory of the pain of the market and the market's looking sweet now, but this was not pleasant, right?
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Don't erase it from memory.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Use it to push yourself forward, to learn the rules that all the successful guys on wall street use, and I give them to you for free, felixfrancoorg.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Get free, and my hope is that they'll get you free, as it's done for me, and I learned it from my mentors.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I didn't make that up.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not some sort of whiz kid.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I just learned what the big guys do and I follow it slavishly with automations.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, I don't trade during the week.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Usually I do nothing during the week.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: The only thing I might do is move my stops up.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: So I do everything on Sunday and then I do nothing and I just observe and I don't ever feel FOMO.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: I don't ever feel like, oh, I need to get into this.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: What if I miss that one?
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Really don't care, because we can make a lot of money with really boring stocks.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: You know something like this here.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: That was a really boring stock.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I bought it at 1260, which is down here somewhere.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Where's 1260?
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: So this was last week.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: We're up at the present 54%.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: At one point we were up 58%.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Do I care?
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Nope, we have a stop set and it might trigger.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll trigger today, who knows, but I'll be happy because I would have made 50% of my money, which is pretty good.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: So I've got a bit more money then to put into the next opportunity come the weekend.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: If you get some value out of this, share it with a friend, and I will be enjoying the beauty of Cannes right now, and I wish you all the best.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Take care.