Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 283 - 5/21/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 283 - 5/21/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 283 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week. It's hump day, baby.
0:40
You guys remember those GEICO commercials where the camel
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would come in? It's hump day.
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It's hump day. I always think about that on a
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Wednesday, Just kind of says, hey, you're halfway through the
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week. You're one day closer to the
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weekend. And I'll tell you what, guys,
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I'm especially excited for this weekend because it is one of my
0:54
last bachelor parties for quite a while.
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My good buddy Lars getting married and we are renting a
1:00
cabin in the woods in Vermont with me and about 6 of my best
1:04
friends so should have a good time.
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Although the weather doesn't look great it's going to be like
1:09
50s and rainy. Hey what are you going to do?
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We're going to make the most of it so just a couple more days
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until I ship up to to Vermont. The white, the Green Mountains
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with the Green Mountain boys getting after it this weekend.
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But we had a lot to get to between now and then.
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Guys, I do have a three pack of sweats for you today.
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It's going to be all Major League Baseball.
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Wanted to get the pot out a little bit earlier than usual
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because there are a couple day games that caught my eye as well
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as a late game tonight out in out in the great state of
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California. So 3 pack overall.
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We're going to try to go 2 and 1 eke out a winning day.
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Now looking back toward last night, guys, bit of a
1:43
frustrating night. 2 and 3 -. 1.5 units had a good day in
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baseball. 2 and one both the Giants and the Brewers came
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through. I don't know what it is about
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the the Orioles right now, but betting against them continues
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to to cash. The only loser was the Reds.
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That was kind of a frustrating game because they lost one
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nothing. They just could not get anything
2:01
going from an offensive standpoint.
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And then right when I dabble into post season hockey and and
2:07
NBAII immediately regret it because the Florida Panthers,
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Carolina under 5 1/2, they had three goals in the first period.
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I thought there was a chance in the third period because it was
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AI think it was a four to one game or three to one game.
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Basically, we're kind of right on the edge there of maybe
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sneaking out with a win. Then they score a bunch of goals
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late to cash that over. So hey, what are you going to
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do? It was juiced under great bet
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splits and a lot of sharp people I respect like that under it
2:35
flies over. And the one that was really
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frustrating was the Minnesota Timberwolves one from the
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standpoint of getting closing line value.
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Did you guys see where that line closed?
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We got plus 7 1/2 with the hook closed at 7, some even close
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closer down to 6 1/2. So he beat the closing line.
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And to add insult to injury, you know the the T Wolves were
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playing pretty well. They were basically winning
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pretty much the entire first half and then third quarter the
3:00
wheels fell off and then fourth quarter they got absolutely
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blown out. So not only is it annoying when
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you beat the closing line, you get a 7 1/2 close of seven and
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you lose, but the T Wolves, man, you guys had a massive rest
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advantage. What the hell were you doing?
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OKC was off a grueling 7 game series.
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They're laying a big number at home.
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T Wolves rested, ready to go, and the T Wolves look like the
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team that ran out of gas in the second-half.
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So hey, what are you going to do?
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Hey, beat the closing line. That's always the goal.
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We can't control what happens on the field or the court or the
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ice or whatever. So we're going to continue to
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grind. See if we can post a winning day
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for today. So without further ado, let's
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get right into it because there are some day games here.
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I want to give you guys the opportunity to listen to the
3:41
breakdown, decide if you want to sweat these games with me.
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So first one that caught my eye, 1:10 PM Eastern Time, first
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pitch, let's go down to Florida, Chicago Cubs visiting the Miami
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Marlins. It's the final game of a
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three-game set. Let's give a breakdown, talk
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where the smart money's going and I'll give you my play for
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this one. So as I mentioned, rubber match
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of a three-game series. The Marlins were 19 and 28.
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They won the opener eight to seven, walking off in the bottom
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of the ninth as a + 145 home dog.
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Don't remind me because I was on the Cubs and they blew the save
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in that one. Then the Cubs bounced back.
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They're now 29 and 20 on the air.
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Had a huge 14 to one win yesterday.
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Took care of business as a -, 150 Rd. favorite.
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So in this afternoon series finale, the Cubbies are going to
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go with the righty Cade Horton. He's 2 and O ERA of 6.
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He'll be opposed by the Marlins fellow righty Max Meyer.
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He's three and four, 4.47 ERA. And what have we seen across the
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market for this one? Well, nothing but steam on the
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Cubbies. Cubs open this game around a -,
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130 Rd. favorite. Miami around a + 110 home dog.
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And we've seen big steam hit the Cubs take Chicago up from -130
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up to -145. I got the Cubs -142 at FanDuel.
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I think -144 is your best price. Some books again, shop around as
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always because they're as high as -150 but pretty good.
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Bet splits Cubs at DraftKings 87% of money line bets, 95% of
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money line dollars and at Circa over 95% of money line bets in
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dollars. So both books have a pretty good
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lopsided one way pro and Joe split in favor of the Cubs,
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which aligns with that line move.
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I like the Cubs from a non division standpoint.
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Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team
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and in particular if you isolate sweet spot non division
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favorites that are between -135 and -160.
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Those teams are 88 and 5462 percent. 5% ROI this year.
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Now the Cubs bats went nuts yesterday.
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Hope that continues. They do have the better offense.
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Knock on wood. Between these two teams they're
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hitting two 6168 homers, 291 runs scored.
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Marlins hitting 24845 homers, 196 runs scored.
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And in particular over their last 10 games, Cubbies are
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hitting 282. Marlins are hitting 248 in
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particular, 2 righties on the bump.
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The Cubs are hitting 257 against righties.
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That's fifth best in baseball. Marlins only hitting 247.
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That ranks 14th. Chicago is 20 and 10 on the
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year. 67 percent, 8% ROI as a favorite.
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So they've done well as a chalk favorite and they are 7 and 370%
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win rate, 20% ROI as a road favorite.
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So when they're chalk, they do well, especially on the road.
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Of course, they're a chalk favorite today on the road and
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in particular, Max Meyer. I want to fade this kid.
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He's got a 7.16 ERA and three May starts.
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He's given up 13 runs and 16.1 and he's pitched and then
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classic home Rd. splits. Chicago is 14 and 10 on the
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road, good winning record. Miami just 13 and 14 at home.
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So both teams have gotten to win in this series.
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We got the rubber match this afternoon.
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One way steam on Chicago system matches, better bats.
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I'm going to bank on the Cubbies here in this one.
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Guys, I got Chicago -142 at FanDuel.
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Another early game for you. 1:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
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Let's stay in the state of Florida.
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Let's check out the Houston Astros visiting the Tampa Bay
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Rays. Once again, a rubber match in
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the series. We got the Astros who are 25 and
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23, taking the opener 4 to 3. Cash as a + 120 Rd. dog.
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Then we saw the Rays who are 22 and 26 claw back with a three to
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two win yesterday took care of business as a -, 135 home
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favorite. So pitch a match up here.
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I think there's a distinct advantage.
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Knock on wood with the Astros are going to go with the ready
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Hunter Brown. This kids been great six and two
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1.43 ERA raised. Meanwhile, we're going to go
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with fellow ready Taj Bradley. He's three and three with a 4.8
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O ERA. So what do you see across the
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market here? Well, similar to the Cubbies, we
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got big Rd. steam this game open with the Astros around a -, 135
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Rd. favorite, Tampa Bay around a + 115 home dog and nothing but
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Stroh's money here, guys. We've seen Astros get steamed up
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-135 up to -155 some shops even approaching -160 I did jump on
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the Astros. I believe it was -150 or -148 I
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think might have been at either DraftKings or FanDuel.
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But again, shop around, get that best price.
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But aside from the line movement, good bet splits on the
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strokes at DraftKings. 81% of bets, 96% of dollars at Circa.
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87% bets, 99% dollars. So good low bets, higher dollar
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split at both DraftKings and circa.
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Then I got a lot of system matches lit up on Houston.
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I got five overall. Here's some of the best ones.
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Rd. favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous
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year. 42 and 2365 percent. 8% ROI sweet spot non division
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favorites. This was the same one that
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matched with the Cubs 135 to 160.
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Those teams are 88 and 5462% with a 5% ROI.
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And then favorites with line movement in their direction who
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made the playoffs the previous year, kind of a combination of a
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couple of these systems. That system is 165 and 8766
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percent, 5% ROI. Astros in particular, they're
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the second best bounce back team in baseball.
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They're 16 and 673% win rate, 32% ROI after a loss.
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Again, lost yesterday and I want to back Hunter Brown.
9:05
I actually I saw how his numbers are pretty good, but then I saw
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him pitch last week against Texas.
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If you remember, that was the degrom versus Hunter Brown game
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and he really impressed me. We're able to get a win with
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degrom, but Brown battled. He was 4.
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He's now four and one with a 1.66 ERA on the road.
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Houston is five and one in his last six starts.
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Also Bradley, 5.28 ERA in May, he's giving up nine runs and
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15.1 innings pitched. So we got someone way steam on
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the Strohs bunch of system matches.
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Got a good pitcher on the bump. I'm back in Houston here guys,
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shop around. I got Houston at -150 last bit
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of the night, late night game. Let's go now to the great state
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of Cali, baby. We're going going back, back to
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Cali, Cali, Arizona Diamondbacks, LA Dodgers, once
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again the rubber match of a three-game series.
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We got the D backs coming in 26 and 23.
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They took the opener 9 to 5, cashed as a + 130 Rd. dog.
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Meanwhile, the Dodgers, who are 30 and 19, bounced back with a
10:07
four to three win an extra innings last night.
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They won that game and took care of business as a hefty -235 home
10:13
favorite. So in tonight's series finale
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pitching matchup looks like it favors Arizona on paper, right?
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Corbin Burns the the stud ace who they gave a lot of money to
10:22
in the offseason. 3 and one 2.56 ERA Dodgers meanwhile, going
10:27
with the fellow ready Dustin May 1 and one 4.43 ERA.
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Remember he was a really highly regarded prospect and then he
10:35
had Tommy John came back this year.
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But this is notable because it seems like Corbin Burns is the
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better pitcher, right? Well, this game open LA around a
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-. 130 home favorite Arizona a + 110 home Rd. dog.
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And you would think, hey, take the plus money with Arizona,
10:51
right? But no lines actually going
10:53
toward the Dodgers. Dodgers have gotten steamed up
10:55
-130 now up to -145 some shops even as high as -150 now I'm
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going Dodgers here. I got dodgers -142 at FanDuel,
11:05
but one really good bet split in particular out at Circa.
11:08
At Circa we are currently getting only 60% of money line
11:13
bets on the Dodgers, but it accounts for 98% of the money.
11:17
So really good low bets, higher dollar split there in favor of
11:20
LA Tells me a lot of wise guys out in Vegas are going with the
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Dodgers. I have 6 system matches on LAA.
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Couple big ones here. Home favorites off a win with a
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winning record. They're 112 and 5766 percent. 5%
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ROI Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year. 156
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and 7667% with an 8% ROI. Dodgers.
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Let's hope their bats come to life here and get to Burns.
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They have the better bats overall between these teams.
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Hitting 26880 home runs, 281 runs scored.
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D backs hitting 25569 homers, 255 runs scored.
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You look at Burns, great pitcher, been great at home 1.48
12:00
ERA. On the road though, 3.8 O he's
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on the road tonight. Meanwhile, Dustin may not great
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on the road 5.4 O ERA, but he's been better at home 3.38 ERA.
12:10
And if this becomes a close game, you know, hopefully the
12:13
Dodgers pen will come through for us.
12:14
They have an ERA of four point O 6, basically middle of the pack.
12:18
But the Diamondbacks have the 4th worst burp bullpen in
12:21
baseball. 5.32 ERA. Doesn't hurt that we do have a
12:24
10% sharp mush edge here lighting up on the Dodgers.
12:28
So we got low bets, higher dollars kind of fishy.
12:30
How do you not take Corbin Burns with plus money yet the lines
12:33
moving further for the Dodgers in this spot.
12:35
So I'm going to stay up late. I'm sweating LA in this one.
12:38
Give me the Dodgers. I got them at -142 at FanDuel.
12:42
So Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, let's try to get two of these and eke
12:45
out a winning day. That about does it for episode
12:48
283. Short but sweet 1 here today,
12:51
guys, I know there's NBA, there's NHL, but after last
12:54
night, I'm going to I'm going to take a breather again.
12:57
Always try to maximize your edge.
12:58
Baseball's been pretty decent to us this year.
13:01
So let's see if we can have a winning night instead of maybe
13:03
forcing something just because it's on TV.
13:05
That's kind of the note one of the no Nos in sports betting.
13:08
Don't just bet a game because it's popular and everyone's
13:10
talking about it. Bet it because you feel like you
13:12
have an edge. Felt like we had an edge with a
13:14
of course, Minnesota in the under last night for Florida.
13:17
Carolina didn't come through, but I'm I'm going to stick to
13:19
baseball here today, but I wish you the best of luck no matter
13:23
what you bet on. But anyway, guys, it's the part
13:25
of the pod where we wrap things up.
13:26
I want to start first, as always, by saying thank you.
13:30
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
13:32
busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
13:35
sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
13:37
If you do enjoy the pod, you won't help me grow the pod.
13:40
Could you please give it a five star review in the in either
13:43
Spotify or iTunes? If you want to click the the
13:46
review button and leave a nice comment.
13:47
Hey, I'll take it. If you want to recommend the pod
13:49
to a friend or click the follow button, it's important to click
13:53
that follow button. That way you get alerted as soon
13:54
as it drops each day. But I do appreciate you guys, as
13:57
always, win, lose or draw tuning into the pod because again,
14:02
we're we're sticking to our data-driven approach as always.
14:05
And I think once you kind of switch from, you know, bias and
14:07
favoritism to data, hopefully you'll see some some fruits of
14:11
of that transition. But anyway, guys, next, if you
14:14
enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp,
14:16
contrary and betting, which is again what we focus on.
14:20
If you want to learn more about data-driven betting, you want to
14:22
you want to let me know you appreciate the pod.
14:24
You have someone in your life who loves betting but doesn't
14:27
really ever win and could you know, easily make some changes
14:30
from a data-driven approach and hopefully perform a little
14:33
better. You know what you should do.
14:35
You should go to Amazon.com and either buy for yourself or that
14:38
person in your life who's new to betting or needs a leg up and
14:42
and go type in on Amazon.com. The following the everything
14:46
guide to sports betting. It's my first book I ever wrote.
14:49
I'm really proud of it, but it's got everything I've learned in
14:51
the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how to
14:54
read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
14:56
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
14:59
how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
15:02
the everything guide to sports betting.
15:04
So pick one up and while while you're still on Amazon.com, then
15:07
you should type in the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
15:11
It's the first book I ever wrote or sorry, it's it's my next
15:13
book, I should say, but it comes out August 12th.
15:16
It's specifically how to bet the NFL from a data-driven approach.
15:19
If you want to make me happy and my publishers happy, would you
15:21
please consider pre ordering a copy cost you 24 bucks, but I
15:26
think it'll be well worth it. And maybe you want to gift it to
15:29
that new person in your life who you know is new to betting or
15:32
you know, needs a leg up. Again, this is all kind of rate.
15:36
Hold it in your hand. Everything we talked about on a
15:37
daily basis. So pick up the everything guide.
15:40
Go pre-order the NFL sharp betting playbook.
15:43
Bring them to the sports book. We'll meet at the Nash.
15:46
How about that? It's close to me pretty good new
15:48
brand new casino, but I'll sign them for you.
15:50
I'll buy a beer or truly or ginger ale.
15:53
We'll get some nachos. We'll sweat some games together.
15:55
Sounds sounds pretty good to me. Next, if you haven't done it
15:58
yet, go download rhythm and juice reel, my two favorite
16:01
sports betting apps because they're all about that data.
16:04
You know you know Megan trainer all about that bass.
16:07
So it's all about that data. I love rhythm for their AI
16:11
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
16:14
Of course, you got baseball live right now WNBANBA as well.
16:18
I can tell you there's something new coming.
16:20
Hint, hint, it's quote UN quote power trends, which is a new
16:24
addition to the app, which I've been beta testing, which looks
16:26
great, but then also go download juice reel.
16:29
Juice reel. I'm going to hold out the hat,
16:30
the tip jar. If you enjoy the pod, the
16:32
insights, this pod is free. It cost you nothing, but if you
16:35
want to let me know you appreciate the pod, please.
16:37
I would love for you guys to sign up to get the all systems
16:40
go best bet picks officially and exclusively only on the Juice
16:44
Reel app. You can sign up and get them for
16:46
only $4.99 a week. It's basically a cup of coffee
16:51
or half a cup of coffee. If you're like my wife and only
16:53
go to Starbucks at Dunks. That's you know, Dunks is about
16:56
a three and three and a half dollar coffee.
16:58
But anyway, you'll get those exclusively from the app.
17:02
You can also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
17:06
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
17:09
the best line futures sync up your sports books to the app and
17:13
you can of course get those, which I think are really cool.
17:15
The exact dollar breakdowns that's in dollars from everyone
17:19
who have synced their books for every single game.
17:21
So you can literally see like tonight, the dodgers, there's,
17:23
you know, $87,000 and 353 eighty 7353 on the the money line or
17:30
whatever. It's kind of cool to see, but
17:33
download rhythm, download juice reel, give them a five star
17:35
review in the App Store. They'll be off and running
17:37
making sharp plays. Next, do you have a live odds
17:42
page? You need a live odds page.
17:44
It's such a crucial important factor whether you're a quote UN
17:47
quote new, better intermediate, better even sharps wise guys.
17:51
You need a live odds page. You got to be able to track the
17:53
market. See when line lines move, that's
17:55
when the numbers get lit up in red because you're operating in
17:58
real time. It's basically like if you like
18:00
trade stocks and you have an E*Trade account.
18:02
It'll show you every game on the board.
18:04
Live scoring. Once the game gets going, live
18:06
lines will pop up to you and automatically adjust throughout
18:09
the game. You'll get an opening column,
18:12
gives you the opening number. Then you can quickly compare
18:14
that opening column to all the numbers on the right.
18:17
The current odds. See which direction the line is
18:19
moving. Get your line history shop for
18:21
the best price. You can see when big books move
18:24
and then the other slow moving books will adjust.
18:26
You have a little bit of a window top on a number, like if
18:29
Pinnacle highlights something in red and it's moving, most likely
18:33
the the entire markets about to move.
18:34
So you better find that slow moving bet MGM or out those
18:38
other books and get a good number before it adjusts.
18:41
And I know there are a lot of live odds pages out there, but
18:44
the best one you got to give this one a shot.
18:45
It's called odds logic. You heard me talk about it a
18:48
bit. I'm not here to show for odds
18:50
logic, but it's a great and I hope you guys know by now like I
18:53
try to be an honest person. Many of you have been with me
18:57
for a very long time at this point.
18:59
I would never recommend something that I don't use
19:00
myself and I don't believe in. And I know that you know, it
19:03
helps me. It's going to help you.
19:05
So there are a lot of live odds pages out there.
19:08
Some are quote UN quote free, but they're actually delayed and
19:10
you don't know where the percentages are coming from.
19:13
They don't have a lot of books. Odds logic is real time.
19:15
It's got all the books, including books like Pinnacle
19:18
and Chris and and Circa and it does a great job of giving you
19:22
line history, line movement, shopping for the best price.
19:25
And again, live odds pages can be, you know, 205 hundred eight.
19:29
I've seen ones that are like 699 a month, like 700 bucks odds
19:33
logic. Give it a shot if you like it,
19:35
it's only 99 bucks a month. But if you want to try it out,
19:38
use this, use this link odds logic.com/josh 123.
19:43
That'll give you a 7 day free trial and then 50% off your
19:47
first month. So that about does it.
19:49
Short but sweet pod here on a Wednesday.
19:51
Just baseball. But as always, leave you the
19:54
couple things. One, whether I see you at the
19:56
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
19:59
Brooklyn New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
20:01
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
20:04
casino R.E.M. gem Springfield in my neck of the woods in
20:07
Massachusetts, or of course, the Nash National New Hampshire
20:10
brand new spanking book right over the border.
20:13
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down, or
20:15
Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
20:17
possible is found at the South Point.
20:19
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
20:22
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
20:24
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
20:26
and you're going to show me a Reds ticket, a Brewers ticket.
20:29
Couple good wins there. Whatever you do, don't show me
20:32
CLV with Minnesota. What a pathetic second-half you
20:35
were. The rest of team, it was OK.
20:37
C was tired. I can't get over that.
20:40
Or the Reds are that Carolina under gross.
20:43
But guess what, guys? We keep grinding.
20:45
First ones on me, next one's on you.
20:46
We're going to post up and sweat some games here tonight.
20:49
As always, guys two and three, three and two, five and OO, and
20:52
five, four and one, one and four.
20:54
Again, previous day's results should never talk us into or out
20:58
of a good bet. Whether we're hot, cold, up,
21:01
down, somewhere in the middle, grinding.
21:03
Just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint.
21:05
I know it sounds cliche, but it's true.
21:07
You can't kill yourself when you have a bad night and you can't
21:09
be, you know, screaming from the rooftops thinking you're
21:12
invincible when you have a good night.
21:13
You just got to keep grinding sports betting.
21:16
You got to have thick skin. I tell you that.
21:17
And it took me quite a few years to get that thick skin because
21:20
if I had a bad night again, I I would freak out.
21:23
I don't like I still don't like it.
21:24
I hate it, but I've learned to kind of realize that we're we're
21:27
working in a very difficult business because we love it
21:30
because it's challenging. But anyway, guys, as always,
21:34
we're going to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
21:36
find games that fit our criteria against the public with the
21:40
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
21:43
line value. If we can do that, then we're
21:45
going to be successful sports betters.
21:47
So have a great Wednesday night, everybody.
21:49
We'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big thirsty
21:52
Thursday. That'll be episode edition 284
21:55
of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
21:58
rhythm. Good luck everybody, and let's
22:00
get some winners on the diamond.