Latest / TaylorMade Retirement with Taylor Demars, CFP® / The Exact Moment You No Longer Need To Save For Retirement
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: Today's content is pulled from Taylor's YouTube channel.
- 0:04SPEAKER_01: If you want to watch the video version or catch more great content, subscribe by clicking the link in today's show description.
- 0:13SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Taylor Made Retirement, where we explore what it takes to build a retirement that works for your money and your life with third generation certified financial planner Taylor DeMars.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: If you've saved three or four million for retirement, working one more year could add millions to projected ending wealth.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: But what if it doesn't meaningfully change the retirement you can actually afford?
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Maybe you're ready to retire now, but every time you run the numbers for just one more year, your financial projections look stronger.
- 0:46SPEAKER_00: And after spending decades building your wealth, it's hard to walk away when working just one more year feels like the financially responsible decision.
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: But before you postpone your retirement, wouldn't you want to know whether working that extra year will actually improve your lifestyle or financial security?
- 1:02SPEAKER_00: Because you could spend another year working, only to discover that most of the benefit is simply having more money left over later in life.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: I'm Taylor Demar's third generation retirement planner and tax strategist.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: And today I'm going to show you an example where working just one more year increased a couple's projecting ended wealth by more than two and a half million.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: But then we went back to their original retirement date and made just two changes to their financial plan without asking them to save another dollar or work another year.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: We'll walk through what happened and how to determine whether you've reached the point where continuing to save is no longer necessary for the retirement you actually want.
- 1:37SPEAKER_00: Over the past few years, you've likely come to realize that your ongoing contributions drive a much smaller portion of your overall portfolio growth.
- 1:44SPEAKER_00: The way that I like to think of this is as retirement savings having two engines.
- 1:49SPEAKER_00: The first is the money you're contributing from your paycheck.
- 1:52SPEAKER_00: Earlier in your career, that's often what drives most of your progress.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: If you have 100 grand invested and contribute 20,000 over the next year, you've added an amount equal to 20% of your starting portfolio, which is substantial.
- 2:04SPEAKER_00: And maintaining that habit over decades is likely how you built your wealth.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: But there's the second engine, which is the investment performance of the money you've already accumulated.
- 2:13SPEAKER_00: And once you have a few million dollars invested, that second engine becomes enormously influential.
- 2:19SPEAKER_00: So let's use a household with approximately$3.5 million in financial assets.
- 2:23SPEAKER_00: And if 3.4 of that is invested, a hypothetical 10% increase in the portfolio would generate around$340,000 in investment gains before adding another dollar.
- 2:35SPEAKER_00: Of course, a 10% decline would mean approximately$340,000 in losses.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: And if the market remained completely flat, then your contributions would be the primary way your account balance increases, assuming you weren't taking withdrawals.
- 2:48SPEAKER_00: Now, I'm not suggesting which of these market outcomes is more likely.
- 2:51SPEAKER_00: The point is understanding the scale of the numbers we're talking about.
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: Because for a couple that's in their late 50s, maximizing their workplace retirement contributions, we might be talking about around$65,000 in combined employee contributions under the standard 2026 limits.
- 3:07SPEAKER_00: And that's significant money.
- 3:08SPEAKER_00: But compared to their$3.5 million of financial assets, it represents less than 2% of what they already have.
- 3:16SPEAKER_00: So the relationship between these engines has changed.
- 3:19SPEAKER_00: Because three decades ago, your contributions were likely doing most of the work.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: Yet today, market performance can move your wealth by several times what you're able to physically add.
- 3:28SPEAKER_00: That doesn't mean your contributions are worthless, nor telling you that you're ready to retire, but I find this is where things get interesting.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: Another year of work can still make substantial difference despite how much you're adding to your 401k.
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: I want to give the financial benefits of working longer the credit they deserve because they're not limited to someone who contributes to a retirement account.
- 3:47SPEAKER_00: So let's take that couple with about$3.5 million saved.
- 3:50SPEAKER_00: They're earning a combined$320,000 a year and contributing around$65,000 between their workplace retirement accounts with the possibility of additional employer contributions or savings elsewhere.
- 4:01SPEAKER_00: And if they continue working another year, those contributions are certainly valuable.
- 4:05SPEAKER_00: But they also may not need to touch their investments to pay their living expenses.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: Let's say their ongoing lifestyle costs are around$11,000 per month.
- 4:14SPEAKER_00: That's$132,000 per year before we add in additional goals like healthcare, housing, or miscellaneous ones like travel.
- 4:21SPEAKER_00: While they're still working, their employment income may cover those costs.
- 4:25SPEAKER_00: And once they retire, they'll need to draw on some of their investments or other income sources to support that same lifestyle.
- 4:31SPEAKER_00: So working another year gives them the opportunity to continue accumulating assets while postponing the need to withdraw money.
- 4:38SPEAKER_00: And particularly when markets are volatile, avoiding withdrawals during an unfavorable year can be very beneficial.
- 4:44SPEAKER_00: There may also be continued employer benefits, maybe changes to future retirement income, and one fewer year their portfolio needs to support them.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: When you add up all these factors, another year of work can genuinely strengthen someone's retirement plan.
- 4:58SPEAKER_00: But what I want to understand is what that actually accomplishes.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: For example, does it allow them to spend more?
- 5:05SPEAKER_00: Does it provide additional protection against a market downturn?
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: Does it help them accomplish a financial goal they could not otherwise afford?
- 5:12SPEAKER_00: Maybe does it primarily increase the amount of money that they're projected to have left over later in life?
- 5:17SPEAKER_00: And those are very different outcomes.
- 5:20SPEAKER_00: While we can calculate the financial benefits of another year of work, there's another side of that decision that doesn't appear on your retirement account statement.
- 5:28SPEAKER_00: For some people, that may ultimately matter more than the additional money.
- 5:31SPEAKER_00: And if you're wondering whether you've reached that point, there's a link in the description where you can schedule a conversation with me to evaluate your own retirement numbers.
- 5:38SPEAKER_00: Because when we put together a retirement projection, we can estimate what another year of employment might add to someone's financial resources.
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: But a software or tool can't tell us what that additional year of work will cost them personally.
- 5:51SPEAKER_00: Imagine a couple has spent most of their working lives talking about what they'll do once they're finally retired.
- 5:57SPEAKER_00: Maybe they'll want to spend several weeks traveling together each year, or maybe taking dedicated time to visit their children and grandchildren more often, or simply have the freedom to arrange their lives around things like investing in their own health rather than their boss's work schedules.
- 6:11SPEAKER_00: If they delay retirement, those opportunities don't necessarily disappear, but they do get pushed further down into the future.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: And I found among clients when they hit that milestone of age 60, that deserves some real consideration, because there's no guarantee that you'll have the same health, energy, or circumstances at 70 that you do today.
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: I don't mean to say that everyone should retire as early as humanly possible, because some people genuinely enjoy their careers and get tremendous fulfillment from what they're doing at work.
- 6:40SPEAKER_00: But I have to ask, when someone is ready to retire and the only thing keeping them at work is uncertainty about whether they have enough, I think it is worth asking what financial improvement they're waiting for.
- 6:50SPEAKER_00: And there's also a less obvious financial consideration that retirement often changes your tax situation.
- 6:56SPEAKER_00: For someone earning 200 grand or more, the opportunities to make Roth conversions or realize investment gains at favorable tax rates can look very different after their employment income stops.
- 7:07SPEAKER_00: Because depending on your account balances and other income sources, those years may create valuable opportunities to reduce your lifetime taxes.
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: Again, it doesn't mean that retiring early automatically saves you more money in taxes, but it's something we need to evaluate before assuming that another year of employment always produces the best financial income.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: And ideally, this planning begins before retirement.
- 7:29SPEAKER_00: I sometimes liken it to driving down the freeway where you're spending 30 years in the left-hand lane, making good time, but retirement is your exit.
- 7:38SPEAKER_00: You don't want to wait until it's a quarter mile away or less before figuring out how you're going to safely cross those three lanes of traffic.
- 7:45SPEAKER_00: Your investment allocation, liquidity, and withdrawal strategy need to be prepared for that transition to going from saving money to actually living on it.
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: So the decision to work another year isn't exclusively about additional contributions or future portfolio balances.
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: I think it also involves experiences you may postpone and the financial opportunities that change once your paycheck stops.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: So now that we've looked at both sides of this decision, let's put these numbers to the test.
- 8:13SPEAKER_00: Because what surprised me about this particular example wasn't about how much more wealth another year could generate.
- 8:19SPEAKER_00: It was about what happened when we went back and examined the plan that they already had.
- 8:24SPEAKER_00: Let's look at a hypothetical couple.
- 8:26SPEAKER_00: We've got James and Julie.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: He's 59, she's 58, and together they have about$3.5 million in financial assets.
- 8:34SPEAKER_00: They also own a home worth$1.25 million, although we're not treating as if that home can actually be used for spending in retirement.
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: Their combined salaries are$320,000, and they're maximizing their available workplace retirement contributions in our example.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: They want to maintain a comfortable lifestyle costing around$11,000 per month in ongoing expenses adjusted for inflation.
- 8:55SPEAKER_00: On top of that, we've separately accounted for healthcare, vacations, extended family trips, replacing their vehicles, as well as income like Social Security.
- 9:03SPEAKER_00: But we're not simply dividing their portfolio by an assumed withdrawal percentage to see if we can generate enough income.
- 9:09SPEAKER_00: We're going to examine how their assets and future income might support the things they actually want to do.
- 9:14SPEAKER_00: Now let's compare some different retirement scenarios.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: Right capital, our tool of choice here, allows us to evaluate a plan across a thousand different investment scenarios, producing what's called a probability of success score.
- 9:26SPEAKER_00: That score represents the percentage of modeled scenarios where the plans, projected assets aren't depleted during the projection.
- 9:34SPEAKER_00: I like to think of this as a temperature gauge rather than a literal prediction of someone's financial future.
- 9:40SPEAKER_00: And the thing that surprises me is that we aren't necessarily trying to achieve a 100% score.
- 9:45SPEAKER_00: In our firm, we commonly use something around an 80% benchmark as a starting point when the plan feels like it has reasonable flexibility and we've projected out what those examined risks might be.
- 9:56SPEAKER_00: Now, that's not a universal recommendation.
- 9:59SPEAKER_00: Someone with substantial fixed expenses and a few opportunities to adjust may need a very different level of financial security than someone with considerable discretionary spending.
- 10:08SPEAKER_00: This score just tells us where to investigate.
- 10:18SPEAKER_00: Under the initial assumptions, their Monte Carlo score comes back at about 81%.
- 10:23SPEAKER_00: And across the simulations seen here visually, the median projected ending value of their invested assets is about$7.6 million, expressed in today's dollars.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: That's not a guarantee they'll have$7.6 million when they die, and it isn't money that they can automatically spend today.
- 10:40SPEAKER_00: It's just modeling that ending value that helps us compare some outcomes.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: What's interesting is that this couple is already around the benchmark we commonly start our analysis with, but they didn't know it until they've gone through a proven process to find out.
- 10:53SPEAKER_00: Yet I still wouldn't tell them immediately that they're ready to retire.
- 10:57SPEAKER_00: What we need to do is look at the different scenarios to compare against, including where their plan breaks, to examine their spending flexibility and make sure the plan accurately reflects their circumstances.
- 11:06SPEAKER_00: And if they're not comfortable with this base scenario or an 81% score, I don't need to assume that they automatically need another year of work without exploring some alternatives.
- 11:16SPEAKER_00: So let's explore what that additional year of work accomplishes.
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: What we're looking at now is after we remove the retirement dates back one year from 60 to 61 and 59 to 60, with the additional employment income and the contributions and the portfolio growth that come under that decision.
- 11:33SPEAKER_00: Under the original planning assumptions, their Monte Carlo score increases from that 81% to 88%.
- 11:39SPEAKER_00: And that's a seven percentage point improvement, which is certainly worth paying attention to.
- 11:43SPEAKER_00: But what's also interesting is looking at the projected ending assets.
- 11:47SPEAKER_00: They go from approximately$7.6 million in today's dollars to approximately$10.1 million.
- 11:54SPEAKER_00: And that's a difference of more than$2.5 million again in today's dollars.
- 11:59SPEAKER_00: When people see that number, it's understandable why another year of work looks so appealing.
- 12:03SPEAKER_00: But they aren't earning an additional$2.5 million next year.
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: This is the difference in projected median ending wealth after the effects of working longer play out over the entire retirement projection, which we're assuming conservatively to be until they both live until age 100.
- 12:18SPEAKER_00: And that's where I want to look beyond just the dollar figure.
- 12:21SPEAKER_00: Because if they're worried about running out of money, moving from 81% to 88% may provide valuable additional reinsurance.
- 12:29SPEAKER_00: But if their spending goals are already adequately supported and that additional wealth primarily increases their projected estate, the benefit may not justify postponing retirement for them.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: But we haven't answered that yet.
- 12:40SPEAKER_00: Because there's something else we haven't yet examined, which is so far we've been asking whether working longer improves the plan.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: We haven't considered whether the assumptions in the original plan accurately reflect how the couple wants to live, or whether their existing assets could be used even more efficiently.
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: So let's go back to the early retirement date and take a closer look.
- 12:59SPEAKER_00: The first thing I want to consider is how we're modeling their spending.
- 13:02SPEAKER_00: Remember, our initial projection said that they would spend$11,000 per month in core lifestyle expenses that would increase with inflation over time.
- 13:11SPEAKER_00: But think about what that means.
- 13:12SPEAKER_00: Someone retiring at 60 is maintaining essentially the same inflation-adjusted core spending at age 85, 90, or longer.
- 13:21SPEAKER_00: And some people may absolutely live that way, but firsthand experiences and studies show that households experience changes in their spending habits as they get older, which is why we like to adapt some form of the go-go slogan no-go stages of retirement.
- 13:35SPEAKER_00: During the earlier years that you're looking at now, people are often more active and spending more.
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: And by their mid-70s, we beg assume that maybe their mind and or body are going to slow down and just spend less on the same things.
- 13:47SPEAKER_00: And so we reflect that in their scenario by saying, what if they dropped that core$11,000 a month by 15% at their mid-70s?
- 13:56SPEAKER_00: And then again by another 15% by their mid-80s.
- 13:59SPEAKER_00: For this couple, that takes their original$11,000 per month to about$9,350 and eventually to about$7,950 in today's purchasing power.
- 14:09SPEAKER_00: The actual plan is going to continue adjusting for those amounts for inflation.
- 14:13SPEAKER_00: But here's an important detail.
- 14:15SPEAKER_00: We're not reducing every expense by those percentages because we're modeling things such as healthcare separately, as well as goals like vacations or replacing vehicles.
- 14:24SPEAKER_00: We also want to factor in the possibility of significant expenses later in life, including long-term care.
- 14:29SPEAKER_00: So these spending reductions are standard assumptions we want to use as a starting point, not as a claim that every household will spend exactly a certain percentage less at certain ages.
- 14:39SPEAKER_00: The objective is to construct a projection that reflects how things realistically might play out rather than having an automatically fixed number played out for eternity.
- 14:48SPEAKER_00: The second improvement is how we coordinate our taxes and withdrawal strategy.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: Instead of deciding which retirement account to use without considering the broader tax consequences, we're incorporating a three-part strategy that examines first which accounts to hold and which different account types, when to make withdrawals from which types of accounts, and then whether there are years when converting traditional retirement assets to Roth accounts makes sense.
- 15:11SPEAKER_00: And in this example, we're incorporating an assumption of Roth conversions designed to use the available room in the 12% federal income tax bracket during their applicable years.
- 15:20SPEAKER_00: We could spend an entire video exploring these strategies, but for the simplicity of today's conversation, the principle is pretty straightforward.
- 15:28SPEAKER_00: The way that you use your retirement accounts can affect how much of your accumulated wealth remains available to support your ideal lifestyle.
- 15:34SPEAKER_00: So now you're asking, what happens when we incorporate these spending assumptions and coordinated tax strategies into the earlier retirement plan?
- 15:42SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately, their plan improves significantly.
- 15:45SPEAKER_00: Our Monte Carlo score, which was originally at 81%, has increased from 81 to 87%.
- 15:50SPEAKER_00: And the projected median ending value of their invested assets increases from$7.6 million to approximately$10 million.
- 15:58SPEAKER_00: Now, if we compare that with our original retirement in one year scenario, the delayed retirement scenario showed an 88% score and roughly$10.2 million and median ending assets.
- 16:09SPEAKER_00: Yet the optimized early retirement scenario shows an 87% score with roughly$10 million.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: These are remarkably similar results, I was surprised to see, even though the second approach keeps the earlier retirement date.
- 16:22SPEAKER_00: But there's an important distinction that we also have to acknowledge.
- 16:25SPEAKER_00: We changed the spending and tax assumptions, reflected right here as well as right here, while the work longer example was still using our original assumptions.
- 16:34SPEAKER_00: Applying those same improvements to the delayed retirement plan would obviously improve that scenario as well.
- 16:39SPEAKER_00: But because these are simulated outcomes, I wouldn't treat a difference of just one percentage point as a precise measurement of how much safer one plan is over the other.
- 16:49SPEAKER_00: So I'm not saying this proves that better planning always replaces the benefit of working another year, but it does demonstrate to me that it's the assumptions that are underlying a retirement plan can make a break or difference of how you decide how to move forward.
- 17:02SPEAKER_00: And for someone in your shoes, that's super valuable because the decision is no longer limited to just retiring under the original assumptions or continuing to work.
- 17:11SPEAKER_00: We now have another reasonable option to investigate, provided the updated assumptions accurately reflect your ideal intentions.
- 17:18SPEAKER_00: So at this point, the next step for me isn't to chase the highest possible Monte Carlo score, but to understand what happens when things may not go as planned.
- 17:26SPEAKER_00: For example, there's an enormous difference between a scenario where the couple runs out of investment resources relatively early while still needing to pay essential expenses, and another one where shortfall occurs much later in retirement after meeting decades of their goals.
- 17:40SPEAKER_00: I want to understand how much flexibility they have starting today.
- 17:44SPEAKER_00: For example, would they be comfortable postponing an expensive vacation if a market downturn was much more or longer prolonged than we thought?
- 17:52SPEAKER_00: Or could they temporarily reduce discretionary spending by a small percentage?
- 17:55SPEAKER_00: Is using their home equity a realistic contingency for affording future long-term care expenses, or is holding onto their home forever something that they want to preserve?
- 18:05SPEAKER_00: These details are really crucial because people don't experience retirement as a predetermined mathematical projection as much as we would love to think so.
- 18:12SPEAKER_00: They make adjustments as circumstances change.
- 18:15SPEAKER_00: I even joke sometimes that if we happen to have a zombie apocalypse combined with World War III and all in the same week, there's only so much that we'll be able to do, and at that point we're not worried about how much is inside of your Fidelity IRA.
- 18:29SPEAKER_00: But that doesn't mean we should dismiss realistic financial risks as if they're all impossible catastrophes.
- 18:35SPEAKER_00: We like to think that good planning means understanding which risks could genuinely threaten your retirement, how serious they might be, and then what you would do if they occurred.
- 18:44SPEAKER_00: For this couple, the important discovery isn't that 87% is some magical number telling them that they can tear down their two weeks.
- 18:51SPEAKER_00: It's that once we've examined their retirement plan more carefully, they have an early retirement option that deserves some serious consideration.
- 18:58SPEAKER_00: And that's a very different position from simply assuming that they should keep working because another year will make their portfolio larger.
- 19:05SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're wondering whether changes like these could affect your own retirement date, that's exactly the type of analysis we help clients through with the retirement readiness roadmap.
- 19:13SPEAKER_00: You can find information about scheduling a conversation with me in the description below.
- 19:17SPEAKER_00: So by now you're asking yourself, how do you apply this to your own retirement?
- 19:21SPEAKER_00: I would start with three questions about your current financial plan.
- 19:25SPEAKER_00: First, does it accurately reflect the retirement you want to live?
- 19:29SPEAKER_00: Not just your monthly expenses today, but how you expect your spending to change as you get older, which major expenses need to be planned for separately, and what you're actually trying to accomplish with your money.
- 19:40SPEAKER_00: And if those assumptions aren't realistic, then the amount you think you need to save may not be realistic either.
- 19:46SPEAKER_00: And second, do you understand where your financial plan is vulnerable?
- 19:51SPEAKER_00: If your plan doesn't succeed in certain market scenarios, you deserve to know why.
- 19:55SPEAKER_00: For example, is the problem concentrated in the first few years of retirement?
- 19:59SPEAKER_00: Does it involve a risk you could reasonably address through your investment withdrawal strategy?
- 20:04SPEAKER_00: Or might you need to make a significant lifestyle adjustment that you are just not comfortable with?
- 20:08SPEAKER_00: That's far more useful information to me than simply knowing a simplified score.
- 20:12SPEAKER_00: And third, has anyone shown you what working another year actually changes using the same planning assumptions?
- 20:18SPEAKER_00: If I were you, I'd want to see the retirement dates compared side by side, including the impact on your spending capacity, lifetime taxes, portfolio withdrawals, and more.
- 20:27SPEAKER_00: Then you can determine whether working another year addresses a genuine problem in front of you, or just primarily increases the amount of wealth you're projected to leave behind.
- 20:36SPEAKER_00: For someone with a few million dollars saved, decisions around taxes, Roth conversions, and investment allocation, healthcare, and withdrawal strategies can many times affect the plan more than just another year of contributions.
- 20:48SPEAKER_00: But the value comes from coordinating these decisions and then measuring their impact, not just assuming every financial planning strategy is beneficial.
- 20:56SPEAKER_00: And that's the work we do when helping clients prepare for retirement.
- 20:59SPEAKER_00: By our definition, retirement is a work optional lifestyle.
- 21:03SPEAKER_00: And you deserve to figure out when that line is.
- 21:06SPEAKER_00: What you're trying to understand is when your money can reasonably support your ideal lifestyle, what your risks are, and which decisions could improve your outcome.
- 21:14SPEAKER_00: And sometimes that leads to being able to retire earlier than expected.
- 21:17SPEAKER_00: Other times it confirms that yes, another year of work is worthwhile.
- 21:21SPEAKER_00: But either way, you can make that decision based on a clear understanding of your financial situation rather than a gut check that you probably should keep saving just to be safe.
- 21:30SPEAKER_00: So the exact moment when you no longer need to save for retirement isn't when your portfolio reaches around three or four million dollars or when the investment growth starts exceeding your contributions.
- 21:41SPEAKER_00: I find it's when your existing assets can reasonably support the retirement you want with financial risks you understand and are comfortable managing without depending on another year of employment.
- 21:52SPEAKER_00: And once you reach that point, the question changes.
- 21:55SPEAKER_00: It's no longer about whether another year of work will improve your finances, because yeah, it probably will.
- 22:00SPEAKER_00: The question is whether that financial improvement is worth another year of your life.
- 22:04SPEAKER_00: And once you've determined you've had enough, the next question you're asking is how much of that money you can actually afford to spend.
- 22:10SPEAKER_00: So, in this next video, I'm going to show you the limitations of a familiar 4% rule that many use as a starting point, but is very misleading if you treat it as a personalized retirement income strategy.
- 22:21SPEAKER_00: So, here I'm going to unpack what you should consider instead.
- 22:24SPEAKER_00: You can click on it now, and I'll see you there.