Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Why Russia is expanding its war against Ukraine beyond the front lines

Transcript

Why Russia is expanding its war against Ukraine beyond the front lines · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I'm joined now by Francis Farrell. He's the senior reporter
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: at the Kiev Independent and co-author of the weekly newsletter
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: War Notes. In his latest article, he argues that Russia
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: is gearing up for a new phase of total war
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: against Ukraine. Francis, it's good to have you on the program.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Let me just ask you, when you use the words
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: total war, tell me what has fundamentally changed here?
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: War comes from an image of the world wars of
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: the 20th century, both World War One and World War Two,
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: where the allies on one side and Germany and their
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: allies on the other were basically seen as throwing everything
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: they've got at this war, whether that was in terms
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: of manpower. in terms of weaponry, and in terms of economy.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: And that means mobilizing one's own resources, but also targeting
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: the resources of the other side, most famously in World
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: War II, of course, with the strategic bombing of cities,
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: of big factories, of anything, even just the country's economy
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: that was seen as contributing to the war effort. And
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: it also includes an idea of mass mobilization and conscription
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: on both sides. And so, so far, what we've seen
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: is that this war has, of course, been existential for Ukraine. Russia,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: in their propaganda, calls it existential. And we have seen
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: massive strikes. We have seen massive casualties, the biggest kind
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: of interstate war since World War II, perhaps. But we
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: haven't seen that kind of total, total mobilization that has
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: brought about the term total war. But in the last
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: few months, We've seen two things, especially from both sides.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: We've seen attacks on the economy, whether it's Ukraine going
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: after oil refineries, going after logistics hubs of Russia's Amazon
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: wild berries and Russia responding in turn with attacks on
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: on Ukraine's ports. Those are the ports that are feeding
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: much of the global south with grain, exporting a lot
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: of resources, attacks on petrol stations, supermarket chains, logistics warehouses
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: as well. And in the future, probably going to mobilize
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: forcefully inside Russia, which they've been really holding back from
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: for the last.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: Week of war.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: When I hear you say all of that, Francis, you know,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I have to think, OK, today was Ukraine's, what, fifth
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Independence Day since the full invasion, full scale invasion began.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And by the sounds of what you've written and what
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: you're saying, these won't be the last celebrated under the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: shadow of war.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's true. I mean, things have been looking up
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: for Ukraine in this year in many ways. First on
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: the front line, where Russian advances have been much, much
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: slower compared to the year before and the year before that. Normally,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: spring and summer is the time traditionally in war where
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: you really pick up speed, and that's been the case
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: here in Ukraine. But they haven't done that. Ukraine's actually
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: taken back almost as much territory as Russia has taken themselves.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: And of course, you know, this offensive pressure that Ukraine
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: has put with the deep strikes on oil refineries, the
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: fact that we're seeing, you know, lines for petrol in Moscow,
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: cutting off Crimea from logistics. These were all designed to
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: hopefully push Vladimir Putin to the decision to maybe wind
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: down the war because the costs were just getting too high.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: But unfortunately, we do see that he seems to be
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: doubling down with strikes on Ukraine's economy and mobilization. And
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: that means a lot more war.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Russian attacks, they're relentless. And President Zelensky,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: he is pleading for air defenses, more air defenses. The
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: rate of civilian deaths are the highest that they've been
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: since the start of the invasion back in 2022. I mean,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: do Ukrainians think that they can sustain this war effort?
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I think Ukrainians, whether it's the soldiers on the front
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: line or the people in cities preparing for what is
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: undoubtedly going to be a very difficult winter... they have
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: been united with the understanding that the only alternative now
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: is still the alternative that Russia is putting forward on
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: the table with their minimal but really maximalist demands for peace,
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: which is handing over territory and basically weakening Ukraine for
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: the next Russian invasion, which could happen immediately or a
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: year down the line. So that's basically capitulation. And Ukraine
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: as a country, there are tensions, there are issues, but
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: they understand that for now, they can't let go. They can't,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: you know, relax or just sue for peace now, because
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: the only alternative is still going to be capitulation and
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: even more disaster down the line.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Is this, Francis, is this still primarily a war for
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: territory or Is this increasingly a contest to break the
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: other country's ability to function? I mean, it seems like
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine now have maybe resigned themselves to something
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: even worse than a war of attrition. They're going to
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: try to make each country unable to function.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: I think I would agree with you in some sense.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I think the front line is still super important because
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: that is where Russia's ambitions to take the rest of
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: the Donbass, for example, are continuing to continue, but also
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: continuing to fail. It could be years before they take
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: that whole region and they're still trying and they're still losing.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: you know, upwards of a thousand soldiers per day. But
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: in the meantime, as you say, we have entered this
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: newer kind of total war phase. And what that means
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: for the people, the populations and the leadership on both sides,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: it is that it's almost a contest of wills. And
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: that's what I always say about what a secure peace
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: for Ukraine really looks like. It's not about retaking territory.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: It's about breaking Russia's conviction that it can break Ukraine.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Francis Farrell, senior reporter at the Kyiv Independent. Francis, we
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: appreciate your time and your insights tonight. Thank you.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Good to be here. Thank you.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today delivered a defiant message to
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Moscow saying that his country will not back down until
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: there is a just and lasting peace. The strong words
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: from Zelenskyy came during an address to mark Ukraine's Independence Day.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Today marked 35 years since the country broke free from
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: decades of Soviet rule. European leaders were on hand and
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: pledged more support for Kiev's defense against the full-scale invasion
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: that Russia launched four and a half years ago.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: Paying tribute to the fallen, President Zelensky met relatives of
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: soldiers killed during four years of war. During the Independence
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: Day ceremony, Ukraine showcased its military hardware, including drones and
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: fighter jets. In his national address, the president urged allies
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: to provide their full support for his nation's struggle against Russia.
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: We're not asking you to fight for us. Give Ukraine
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: everything it needs to stop this war, to stop it
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: faster than Putin can start the next one. To prevent that,
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: we must act together.
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: Europe must be Europe, united, ambitious and brave. European countries
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: sent high-ranking officials to Ukraine in recent days to show
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: their support, including leaders from the Nordic and the Baltic countries.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: France and the UK have also stepped up their assistance,
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: saying they would share technology to help Ukraine build long-range
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: cruise missiles, a key topic at today's meeting of the
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: Coalition of the Willing Allies, co-chaired by Britain's new Prime Minister,
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Andy Burnham.
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: Despite Russia's outrageous threats to my country, we will continue
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: our support for Ukraine's defence. I know you need more
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: help to protect your skies and your civilians. I know
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: how hard the winters have been and the need to
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: be ready this year when the nights draw in.
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: The Kremlin was quick to respond, saying the increased support
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: will add fuel to the fire. The anniversary comes as
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: more Russian attacks were reported overnight, including here in Odessa. Meanwhile, U.S.-led
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: peace talks appear to have stalled, while the weekly toll
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: of civilian deaths has reached its highest level since Russia's
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: full-scale invasion. For many here, Independence Day is less about
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: the past than the uncertain future Ukraine is fighting to secure.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Well, a short while ago, we asked our correspondent Nick
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Connolly what he makes of UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: handing out classified information to build missiles.
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: So this is about the Storm Shadow cruise missiles, known
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: as Scalp, in France. Ukraine has received repeated reports deliveries
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: of these missiles in recent years, and they've been used
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: to destroy things like Russian command posts in occupied Crimea,
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: weapons factories deep inside Russia. And this is about helping
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: Ukraine to make its own weapons. So obviously that doesn't
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: mean that these will be ready anytime soon. Lots of
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: speculation here also about whether Ukraine will even try to
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: produce these kind of weapons in the country, given the
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: vulnerability to Russian ballistic missile strikes, given how low those
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: stocks of Patriot interceptors are. So maybe Ukraine will set
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: up production somewhere in a safer location. But certainly this
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: shows quite how far Ukraine's come in terms of trust, right?
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: That countries like the UK are willing to share some
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: of their kind of most valuable technology with Ukraine. They
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: know that Ukraine will hold on to that technology, that
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: they won't put that know-how at risk in a way
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: that the Russians could then easily copy it. I think
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: that is important. But right now, the main priority for
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: people here in Kiev is air defence because basically in
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: the last six months, we've gone from a situation where
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: most ballistic missiles or at least two-thirds of them on average,
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: were being shot down over Kiev to basically none of
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: them being shot down. We're in a situation right now
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: in Kiev where the Russians have left off for the
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: last day or so with all these foreign leaders in town.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: But as soon as those leaders leave tonight, the expectation
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: is that Russian attacks will once again start back on
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: track and we'll have people here in Kiev down in
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: the metro tonight and the nights to come.