HEDGEYE MACRO SHOW OCT 30 — Quad 4 Risk Builds for 2027: Yields Break Down, Asia Cracks, Defensives Take the Lead

Exponential Learning · Oct 30, 2026 · 10m

Alex and Jordan distill the October 30, 2026 edition of Hedgeye Risk Management's The Macro Show. Hedgeye's GIP model map (updated Oct 22) keeps inflation sticky through year-end (CPI 3.86% in 4Q26) then collapses it to 1.94% YoY by 2Q27 — flipping the regime to Quad 4 on an inflation rate-of-change rollover, not a GDP recession (their real GDP YoY stays 2.26-2.41%). The evidence: the 30-year yield first to signal bearish TREND with the 10-year teetering (10Y 4.93%, -36bp MoM) while long oil (BNO) breaks to cycle highs; 37.8% of Mag 7 2Q26 net income was unrealized marks on private AI stakes…