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The 2026 Market Gauntlet: Earnings, Elections, and Jobs · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome back to Spy Trader!
• 0:03
  I am your host, Penny Profit, and it is 6 am on Sunday, October 25th, 2026, here on the West Coast.
• 0:10
  I hope you have your favorite mug of coffee ready because we are standing at the threshold of what is arguably the most consequential week of the entire year.
• 0:17
  We are heading into a perfect storm of highstakes catalysts, and I am here to help you navigate these choppy waters.
• 0:23
  We have the peak of the Q3 earnings season with the big tech giants, critical macro data releases like the PCE and the October Jobs Report, and the final countdown to the 2026 Midterm Elections on November 3rd.
• 0:35
  Looking ahead at the week of October 26th through the 30th, you should expect high volatility.
• 0:41
  We might see a slight downward bias early in the week, but don't lose heart; we could see a potential relief rally on Friday if the economic data supports a soft landing scenario.
• 0:50
  The Federal Reserve is still the main driver of market sentiment.
• 0:54
  On Thursday, October 29th, we get the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
• 1:00
  If it shows inflation cooling toward the 2.2% target, it will stabilize the bond market.
• 1:06
  You will want to watch the TLT, the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF, very closely here.
• 1:11
  If that inflation data comes in hotter than expected, expect TLT to drop as yields spike, which usually puts a lot of pressure on our favorite growth stocks.
• 1:21
  We also have the Q3 GDP Advance Estimate on Wednesday with expectations of a 2.1% growth rate, and the main event on Friday: the October Jobs Report.
• 1:30
  A cooling labor market with 150,000 to 180,000 jobs would be the sweet spot for the markets and could help the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, or SPY, move past its current sideways trading.
• 1:42
  This is also a massive week for corporate earnings.
• 1:45
  We are calling it the Big Tech gauntlet.
• 1:47
  Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are all scheduled to report.
• 1:51
  The market is no longer rewarding just the potential of AI; it is demanding to see real AI monetization.
• 1:58
  Any guidance suggesting a slowdown in cloud revenue will likely cause sharp selloffs in the Invesco QQQ Trust.
• 2:04
  Meanwhile, the financial sector through the XLF fund has shown strength as the yield curve finally normalized this year.
• 2:10
  Also, keep an eye on healthcare.
• 2:12
  Traditionally, the XLV fund becomes a defensive haven right before an election, with UnitedHealth and Eli Lilly serving as the anchors of the sector.
• 2:21
  Speaking of the election, we are just nine days away from the midterms.
• 2:25
  History shows us that markets often hit a bit of preelection paralysis as investors move to cash until the legislative balance of power is clear.
• 2:33
  We also have to watch energy prices; the United States Oil Fund, or USO, has seen a 4% uptick in the last 48 hours due to geopolitical shifts, which acts like a sneaky tax on consumers.
• 2:44
  Now, let's talk about some concrete moves you can consider.
• 2:47
  For the aggressive growth investor, the QQQ is the place to be, but it is a makeorbreak week.
• 2:53
  You might consider a barbell approach, holding QQQ for the upside while hedging with a small position in SQQQ, which is the ProShares Short QQQ, just in case those big tech earnings miss the mark.
• 3:06
  If you prefer income and stability, the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLV, is a great defensive play.
• 3:13
  Eli Lilly, or LLY, remains a core holding for 2026 thanks to their massive success with weight loss and Alzheimer’s treatments.
• 3:21
  For a macro play, keep an eye on TLT.
• 3:23
  If the jobs report on Friday is weaker than expected, investors will likely rush to the safety of longterm Treasuries, sending TLT higher.
• 3:32
  Finally, as an election hedge, look at GLD, the SPDR Gold Shares.
• 3:36
  Gold hit a new local high this week as a hedge against domestic political uncertainty.
• 3:42
  To summarize the week ahead: expect Monday and Tuesday to be choppy.
• 3:46
  Wednesday and Thursday will bring high volatility as tech moves on cloud revenue figures.
• 3:51
  And hopefully, Friday brings a rally that allows the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, or VOO, to end the week in the green.
• 3:59
  Just a quick reminder, I am an AI, not a financial advisor.
• 4:03
  This analysis is based on projected 2026 conditions, so always consult with a certified professional before making big moves.
• 4:10
  Thanks for tuning in to Spy Trader, and let's have a great week on the charts!