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College Football Week 3 BEST BETS | You Gotta Be Kiffin Me · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: They made you this mad. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: out That fell apart by its heart But it don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: get the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: And we won week zero, at least. So I think
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: we're one game below. 500 probably on the show, which
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: is not great in college football. But hopefully we get
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: back to it here. I'm going to give out four
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: plays here. Most of them are big underdogs. I actually
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: have one favorite this week. I know that's really unlike me.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: No, not necessarily.
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: I'll throw favorites in there. It depends on the spot.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: It depends on the number as well. But, I mean,
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: the odds makers know what they're doing with the numbers, so.
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: The number's never really going to be that far off.
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, maybe sometimes it's some of the lesser games,
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: but I don't want to take too long with this, man.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: Let's get into it here. Let's bring this up. All right.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: College football. You know me.
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm going to do chronological order here. I'm
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: going to hit all the ranked matchups. I'll hit the
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: TV ones. Try to not make this take too long.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: If you want me to talk about some game I'm
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: not talking about, I'll.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Do that as well.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: CBS Sports has a 10.30 a.m. Eastern game between Coastal
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: Carolina and Delaware, so it's like we're back in high
• 2:47
  Speaker 4: school football, man, with the 11.30 start time here, local
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: time in this case. I've heard some professional opinions on
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: Coastal in this game, and I probably agree. I actually
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: think this is a decent play to make on Coastal here.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: It's not going to quite make the cut for me,
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: but Delaware is coming off a pretty big game against Vandy.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Where they played pretty well against Vandy. They only lost by.
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: Nine at Vandy, but of course this is not the
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: Vandy of last year. They don't have Diego Pavia anymore
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: or whatever, but still that's a pretty impressive performance from
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: Delaware to go in there. There were three touchdown underdogs
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: and they came to within nine points. So they were
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: down 15 though, late in the game. And that last
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: touchdown was, a little bit cosmetic, although there's still six
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: minutes left. But if you look at the box score,
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: Delaware did actually play pretty well, but that worries me
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: a little bit as far as fading Delaware, because they
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: actually were better in this game than it looks like.
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: Almost even in yardage with Vandy in that game. Still
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: a big game for Delaware. And coming off of that, yes,
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: this is going to be their FBS home opener, though.
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: But it's an early start time, so sometimes the drunkenness
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: isn't really there yet.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: It's not as Hyped up as a night game.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: Plus, it's Delaware, although they're new to FBS, so maybe
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: there's some excitement there. But Delaware does play Virginia next.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: I think that's going to be a bigger game as well.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: That's one of their biggest games. That is the biggest
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: game on the remaining schedule for them, and it's the
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: only ranked matchup they have all season. So that is
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: probably a look ahead. That's a major look ahead, I
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: would say. So I think it's a bad spot for Delaware.
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: I've heard professionals basically saying that the number is off
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: on this too and that Delaware should not be as
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: big of a favorite as they are. Coastal, they looked
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: good in their first game against West Virginia in that
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: they only lost by seven in that game as 21-point underdogs.
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: But if you look at what happened in that game,
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. I mean, they were down 24-0
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: at halftime in that game. They did wind up outgaining
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: West Virginia, but I'm wondering if West Virginia up big,
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: like kind of took their foot off the gas late
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: because it was– a 31-14 game in the fourth quarter,
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: you know, and then I think maybe West Virginia just
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: packed it in early, so maybe that game's a little
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: bit misleading, but that would make me not want Coastal.
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: Coastal did get their first win last week against an
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: FCS team, Fordham, so.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: That's the type of win that will just, I think,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: propel you forward.
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: Like, I think it's a good win, and it's not
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: going to make you overconfident, you know, but the spot
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: is really bad for Delaware here, I think. sandwiched in
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: between their two biggest games of the year the two
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: big conference games that they have so yes I would
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: take the points with Coastal if I was going to
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: play this one 58% of the tickets 88% of the
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: cash on them they're five and a half point underdogs
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: at some shops here maybe five not much of a
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: difference between those two numbers so yeah that's how I
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: would go in that game that one's close to being
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: a play for me I would say I think that's
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: one of the better looks on the board actually but
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: it doesn't make the cut to get onto my card
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: but Maybe I'll be mad about it later when Coastal
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: wins the game outright, and then I'll be mad about it.
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: Number two, Georgia at Arkansas in the noontime ABC game here,
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: SEC matchup. I believe it's the first SEC game for
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: both teams. Arkansas got obliterated last week by Utah. They
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: went out and had to play Utah on the road.
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's not an easy environment to have to
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: go in, high elevation. I did not think they would
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: do well in that game. and they certainly did not.
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're going to get up for this game
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: against Georgia, though. They get to host Georgia. Huge game
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: for Arkansas.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: For Georgia, Georgia's looked really good so far. I mean,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: they put.
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: Up 133 points in their first two games against Tennessee
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: State and Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky not looking good so far.
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Will Georgia be able to be that good against Arkansas?
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: Probably not.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: Also, it's Georgia's first road game of the season, and
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: I do not love to play on teams in their
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: first road game of the season because they're not really
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: used to that road environment yet, even though, of course,
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, these guys have done it before, you know,
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: Gunnar Stockton, whatever, Kirby Smart knows how to coach in
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: a situation like that. But I think it is still
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: a negative, nonetheless, that first true road game that you have.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: And Georgia does have Oklahoma up next, a big ranked
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: matchup there.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: So this game, I think it probably means a little
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: bit more to Arkansas.
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: Georgia's ranked number two in the country, so they're going
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: to be a little bit overvalued in the market. So
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: I think Georgia probably is laying too many points. I
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: don't really have much of a situation to latch onto
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: other than maybe it's a look ahead for Georgia to
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: that Oklahoma game. Georgia's laying 24.5. The line hasn't really moved.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: I'd lean towards taking the points with Arkansas here.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: 93% of tickets, 92% of.
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: The cash on what is a very public Georgia side.
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: The total's not really that high in the mid-50s, so
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: Georgia not expected to put up anywhere near as much
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: offense as they did against those two bad teams that
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: they played so far, and I.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Believe that should be the case.
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: This is an SEC game now, so it's going to
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: be more difficult for Georgia, obviously.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: Next game, Kent State at number six, Ohio State. This
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: is a game that Ohio State could name the score, probably,
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: if they wanted to. The question is, do they really
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: want to? This game is on Fox. I consider putting
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: this on my card, actually, because you know Ohio State's
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: not in a good spot. They had that huge game
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: against Texas last week, although I think the game meant
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: more to Texas. Ohio State, they do have a pretty
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: difficult Big Ten schedule, I guess, but I mean... we'll
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: see how they uh how they handle it like i
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: don't know if that loss is gonna how much it's
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: gonna hurt them as far as their playoff potential you
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: know what i mean i still think ohio state is
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: the best team in the country probably that was a
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: difficult spot uh at texas but that is what they're
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: coming off of and they blew a big lead as
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: everybody knows ohio state was winning the game i think
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: it was 23 to 3 right or something or yeah
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: was it 23 to 3 something like that and then
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: texas want to being the only team to score after that,
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: and they wound up winning the game. So Ohio State
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: could be a hangover spot after that. Kent State also,
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: they're a little brother in the state of Ohio, so
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: they'll get up for a game like this, but it's
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: just Ohio State is so much better than they are.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: The question is, does Ohio State take their foot off
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: the gas?
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: I think, and I guess maybe they could start slow
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: after that Texas game. Ohio State plays Illinois next, which
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: will be a big 10 opener for them so that
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: it's big just because it's their first big 10 game,
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: but Illinois is not a formidable opponent this year. So
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: technically I guess I would say, yeah, it's a sandwich spot.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: I would lean towards Kent state here getting more than
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: 50 points here, but do I really want to do it?
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: I don't really think so. Kent state, their only FBS
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: game so far, they got absolutely murdered about 57 and
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: nothing by South Carolina and Ohio State's better than South Carolina,
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: and South Carolina, I don't think they're really that good
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: of an offense either, so maybe that's not a good
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: sign for Kent State.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: But people are going to look.
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: At that and think Ohio State will just blow out
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: Kent State here. Kent State won against Wofford last week,
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: an FCS team, so that does give them a little
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: bit of positive momentum moving into this game. at least.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: And this will be basically Kent State's Super Bowl, at least.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: It'll be their biggest game of the season.
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: Ohio State's got 84% of the tickets, 90% of the
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: cash on them.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: They're laying 52.5 in a 59 total game here. I mean, okay, so,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: you know, what?
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: They're expected to win, like, 56-3, basically. Is that what
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: that comes out to? You know, I'd lean towards taking
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: the points with Kent State, but, yeah, I don't want
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: to do it. It's almost similar to betting Kent State
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: to just score any points in the game, pretty much. Like,
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: taking Kent State's point total over two and a half.
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: It's probably two and a half in the game or
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: something like that.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: So, yeah. So it's almost the same thing, taking Kent
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: State to cover it.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: I think if you play that game, maybe that's the
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: better option, is to just take Kent State to score
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: something in the game and not get shut out. Maybe
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: that's the way to go there. Big Ten Network at noon,
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: Buffalo at number 14, Penn State. Penn State's looked good
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: in the new era where basically Iowa State came in
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: and became the new Penn State, the Matt Campbell era.
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: But they only played Marshall and Temple so far, but
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: Buffalo is.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: Not really that good of a team.
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're a Mac team, I believe. So it's
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: not like Penn State is having to play a better
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: opponent here, really. Penn State does have their Big Ten
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: opener next against Wisconsin. But like I was saying in
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: the season preview, Penn State has a pretty easy schedule
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: this year. Like they get USC at home and then
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: their only road ranked opponent as it stands right now
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: is going to be Michigan. That's definitely going to be
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: their most difficult game, I would say. Because it's on
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: the road in a really hostile environment. But they get
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: the rest of the... They get USC at home, and
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: USC is going to be a weird travel spot for
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: them at the very least. So that game is actually
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: probably winnable for Penn State.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: But whatever. We're looking at this game against Buffalo. I
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: don't know.
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, will Penn State look ahead to Wisconsin next?
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that. Buffalo didn't cover against
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: FIU last week. FIU was kind of in that Florida
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: sandwich that I talked about last week. But I also
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: thought FIU was better than they appeared to be in
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: that South Florida game, so I didn't really want to
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: fade them. Plus, kind of a weird environment for Buffalo
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: to have to go down to FIU. Second straight road
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: game for Buffalo.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: It won't be easy. Penn State, obviously, a difficult place
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: to play. Happy Valley.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: But I think if I was going to play the
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: game at all, I mean, you know Penn State's going
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: to be overvalued because they're number 14 in the country.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: They've looked good so far.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: None of the public are going to play Buffalo here.
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: So probably that's the lean in this game.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Would I do it?
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: I don't think so, but the total's definitely really low, 49.5,
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: and you're getting 40.5 points if you take Buffalo here.
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: So Penn State getting a lot of respect. Also, Buffalo
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: not getting any respect. 81% of tickets, 52% of the
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: cash on Penn State.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: So the money is leaning towards Buffalo.
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and I forgot to kind of, like, go over
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: what the percentages meant in that previous game I talked
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: about with, or the, well, I said Georgia was public.
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: And then, yeah, I think Ohio State is public with
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: less of the money on them as well.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: So whatever.
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: All these ranked teams that I'm talking about, they're all
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: public sides. But yeah, if you take Buffalo, I mean,
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: you're getting 40 and a half points in a game
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: with a really low total, 49 and a half.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: Although the total did go up a little bit, but
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: that is the type of.
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: Thing where I do like to look for underdogs with
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: really low totals like that. because it's more likely they're
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: going to score because it's supposed to be a, or
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: more likely they're going to cover because it's supposed to
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: be a lower scoring game, I should say. So, uh,
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: like for Buffalo to not cover this, they would have
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: to score very few points most likely in this game. Uh,
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: But no real situation to latch onto there, but I
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: would lean slightly to Buffalo.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: ESPN 2 at noon. Tulane at Kansas State.
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: Kind of a weird spot for Tulane to have to
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: go play in Kansas State. It's going to be in
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: a hostile environment here. Kansas State looks pretty good so
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: far in their new era under former quarterback Colin Kline,
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: I believe is their coach now, who quarterbacked at Kansas State.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Not that long ago, it feels like to me.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: It really makes me feel old that he's their head
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: coach now because I remember watching him play. Kansas State,
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: easy wins for them so far, but pretty impressive that
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: they blew out Washington State last week. I was right
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: about Kansas State covering in that one. It was kind
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: of a weird spot for Washington State coming off their
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: Apple Cup game against Washington and then having to make
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: this weird travel spot.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Now, Kansas State.
• 14:36
  Speaker 4: Does have this game sandwiched in between two Bigger conference opponents,
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: if you will.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Pac-12, Washington State in the newly formed Pac-12, reformed.
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: Pac-12, and then Kansas State has their Big 12 opener
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: next at Cincinnati. So maybe they don't fully pay attention
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: to Tulane here. Tulane is coming up, barely getting by
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: South Alabama. Their loss was at Duke, which Duke's not
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: as good this year as they were last year, I'm thinking.
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: Tulane looked really bad in that game, to be honest. Um,
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: and deservedly lost, but, uh, maybe there'll be a little
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: bit better coming off a game against South Alabama or Tulane.
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: I think it was like a nine point favorite, I
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: want to say, or something like that. And they almost
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: lost the game to South Alabama. Um, So maybe they
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: were looking ahead. It was kind of a sandwich spot
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: for Tulane, in a way, between Duke and Kansas State,
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: at least. I talked about it last week. I think
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: I leaned South Alabama, but I did not put it
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: on my card. Tulane escaped with the win, didn't cover.
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: Sometimes when that happens, you do get up for the
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: next game, and this will be their biggest remaining game
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: on the schedule. This is their only other remaining big
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: conference team, I think, for the rest of the season. So, yeah,
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'd probably lean towards Tulane in this one.
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: Kansas State, 63% of tickets, 65% of the cash on them.
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: They're laying 20.5 now, though, with another low total, 49.5.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: So, again, you know me.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: I like taking bigger underdogs with lower totals like that
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: because it's more likely.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: They're going to be able to come within that number.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: I think that's what I would do. Kansas State's looking
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: like they're going to be a little bit public there.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: But Tulane, you know, it is a weird.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: Spot for them to have to travel to an unfamiliar
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: environment like that.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: So that's, yeah, nowhere near my card. Next game up
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: will be a play for me.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: This is the first one that I identified on the
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: week that I knew I was going to make a
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: play out of this. Bowling Green at Iowa State on
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: ESPNU at noon. And this is one that I mentioned
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: that it's ugly, but I think I have at least
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: one uglier one than this, really. Although this one's still
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: pretty ugly. We're going to take Bowling Green plus 24 here.
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: There are a lot of 23 1⁄2s out there, but
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: I think if you have enough books available to you,
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: I think you'll get 24 on this. When you get
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: up to the numbers that are this big, though, the
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: number matters a little bit less, but the Roman Emperor's
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: book right now has the 24 on it. And if
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: you're in Florida, it looks like you might be able
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: to get it at the.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: HR book. Not Human Resources. And then, I don't know,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: some of the other books might have it, too. It
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: looks like I'd have to.
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: Extend this oh maybe i should just yeah kind of
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: extend it just to the end there just to see
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: everything uh if it still looks good on the screen
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: i don't know the reason why i shrunk shrunk it
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: horizontally though is because it looks better on the screen
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: you know what i mean uh i think at least
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: i don't know the zero people in the chat can
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: let me know But anyway, yes, Bowling Green is going
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: to be the play here. 24 is going to be
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: a key number, so I would just wait around. There's
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: no harm in waiting. Like 23, 23.5, you're going to
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: get one of those numbers at the very worst. And
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: Iowa State's going to be a public side here. But
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: the money looks like it is coming in on Bowling Green.
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: And this isn't going to be one of the more.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Heavily bet games, though. So wait around, though.
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: See if you can get the 24 on it, I
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: would say, because it is a little bit more of
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: a key number. I would still probably take the 23.5 here, though.
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: I like the spot here, man. Iowa State, people are
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: going to think they're better than they are right now
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: because they looked really good against number 21 Iowa last time.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: And that Cy Hawk trophy game, huge battle between Iowa
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: and Iowa State. It seems like that game is always close.
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: And I thought it might not be this year because
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: usually it's like a three-point spread in that game and
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: one team wins by three or whatever. This time, yeah,
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: it was a three-point win for Iowa, but Iowa was
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: a double-digit favorite in that game. Iowa was a 14-point
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: favorite in that one. So this is a down year
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: for Iowa State. The oddsmakers are continuing to tell you
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: that because, again, Matt Campbell, as I just talked about,
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: he moved a bunch of his people along with himself
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: over to Penn State. So Iowa State's in like a
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: rebuild mode here. That was a huge game for Iowa State.
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: So not only are they coming off a huge rivalry game,
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: which is always one of their biggest games of the year,
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: but they played really tough against a punishing Iowa defense
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: as 14-point underdogs, and they almost won the game.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: The game was tied. I think Iowa won on a
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: last-second field goal.
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: So you've got to think Iowa State's going to have
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: a hard time getting off the mat after that, even
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: though this will be their FBS game. home opener it's
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: against Bowling Green I mean come on man I don't
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: like Iowa State's spot here at all and it's even
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: worse because they got to play Utah next and that's
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: their conference opener and it's against one of the best
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: teams in the conference number 17 ranked Utah horrible horrible
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: spot for Iowa State here It's a massive sandwich spot,
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: so I do not see them having full attention here.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: Nobody's going to want 0-2 Bowling Green here, who just lost.
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: They lost to Tarleton State in their first game, which
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: is an FCS team. But Tarleton State is not that
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: bad out of the FCS teams, to be honest. I
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: think that game was like a 1-2. spread, so that's
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: not as bad as it looks for Bowling Green. And
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: then Bowling Green got destroyed by Nebraska last week, but
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: Nebraska's pretty good.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not going to take much away from that.
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: I don't think Iowa State's offense is going to be
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: anywhere near as capable as Nebraska's is right now. Yeah,
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: it's a second straight road game for Bowling Green, but
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: they're still looking for their first win of the season.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: I think they're going to be hungry. I mean, after this,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: they have one kind.
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: Of big-ish game against South Florida when they come back
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: home for their first FBS game. And then after that,
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: it's all conference play. And Bowling Green should get some
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: wins in the MAAC. I mean, they're usually a decent
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: MAAC team.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: They got Eddie George there still as their coach, I'm
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: pretty sure.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: Not that he's necessarily great, but Basically, the spot is
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: horrible for Iowa State.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: That's what we're doing here.
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: We're fading Iowa State in this spot where I really
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: think Iowa State, not only are they in a bad spot,
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: but I just think they're way overvalued. They're just being
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: in total rebuild mode here. I'm surprised that they were
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: able to hang with Iowa to the extent that they did.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: 83% of the tickets are on Iowa State, so the
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: public is only coming in on that side.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: 52% of the tickets are on Bowling Green.
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: And the total has gone down three points, basically, down
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: to 43.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: So you know I like that. We're going to take
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: 24 points in a game where.
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: The total is 43. Yeah, give it to me. Give
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: me a huge underdog when there's a ridiculously low total.
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: So the odds makers are telling you that they don't
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: think Iowa State's going to put up that many points
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: on offense.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Let's do it. Bowling green, plus 24.
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to want that, and I think it's one
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: of the best plays of the week, so possibly the
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: best play of the week, to be honest.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: Arizona State, Kansas, Fox Sports 1, and this game is
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: in London at Wembley Stadium. So yeah, we have these
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: international games getting into the mix now. Normally, it was
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: just like that Dublin game in week zero, whatever, and
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: then it was, we don't have to worry about international crap,
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: except for in the NFL.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: I hate all this bullshit, dude. I don't think we
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: want it. I mean, come on, whatever.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: Football's an American sport. I say keep it in America.
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is ridiculous, but whatever. You get to
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: handicap the travel spot here. Which team is going to
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: travel better?
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Who fucking knows, dude?
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: Like....
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know if either of these teams were involved
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: in any of those Europe games so far over the
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: last couple years. If these programs are used to this,
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: probably they're not. So I think both teams are kind
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: of on even footing in that they're not used to this.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: As far as the spot, Kansas had that big game
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: in a primetime game, I think on Friday night against
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Missouri last week. And Kansas was hanging around for the
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: first half.
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: So they do have an extra day of rest here,
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: Kansas does, because I think Arizona State played on Saturday yesterday.
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: So Kansas has one extra day of rest here. They
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: are coming off a big game, though, against Rank, Missouri.
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: That's a rivalry game. It's the border war or whatever.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: Between these two teams. So it was a big game.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Kansas wound up failing to cover, though.
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: And they looked good for the first half. At least
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: they were tied at halftime, I'm pretty sure. But then
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: Missouri just completely put their foot on the gas and
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: they ran away with it in the second half. If
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: you look at the stat sheet, though, Missouri absolutely destroyed
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: Kansas in this game.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: It was not close at all. Missouri outgained them by
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: more than 200 yards.
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: And on top of that, Kansas lost the turnover battle.
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: So I honestly have no idea how Missouri didn't win
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: this game by more. It's actually a misleading final that
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: makes Kansas look better than they actually were in the game.
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: So those would be a couple of strikes against Kansas, really,
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: in this game. Arizona State, they have one less day
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: of rest, though. They played on Saturday, but they got
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: kind of blown out by Texas A & M. They
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: lost by 28 points at Texas A & M. That's
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: a really difficult game, though. having to go into College
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: Station and do anything there. You know, I mean, it
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: wasn't that bad of a result for Arizona State, to
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: be honest, losing 48-20. What do we do with this game?
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: I mean, obviously it's a pass for me in this one,
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: but the money is indicating towards Kansas in this game.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Arizona State's a five-and-a-half-point favorite, so the oddsmakers are telling
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: you Arizona State's the better team here.
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: 81% of tickets, 74% of the cash on Arizona State.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: The money is fading. A public Arizona State team here.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I agree.
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: Like I said, Kansas, they do have an extra day
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: of rest here, but that was a big game for
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: them in the border war against Missouri. They were not
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: even as good as they looked in that game. Arizona
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: State actually might have been a little bit better than
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: they looked in the Texas A & M game.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: Let me see.
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Arizona State outgained Texas A & M by more
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: than 100 yards in that game, and they committed four turnovers.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: They lost the game because they were minus three in turnovers. Statistically,
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Arizona State could have actually won that game against.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: Texas A & M, yet they lost.
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: By 28 points, but the stat sheet does not tell
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: you that that's what happened in that game. The stat
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: sheet tells you it was at worst like a close
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: game for Arizona State, but they dominated the yardage in
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: that game. Although, again, sometimes that's a little bit misleading
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: because if they're the team that was way behind, you'll
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: see their yardage kind of get racked up a little bit.
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: Like Texas A & M with a big lead probably
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: just started running the football.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: And Arizona State was probably just chucking it out. all over,
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: you know, just throwing it all over the place. So
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: that will increase your yardage when that happens. But, yeah,
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: I think I disagree with the market in this one.
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: I think I would lean towards Arizona State in that game,
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: but not a strong opinion from me there. All right,
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: ESPN at noon, North Carolina and Clemson. Yeah, two programs
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: that used to be good to some extent, and right now, yeah,
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: that's not the case. Clemson has looked really bad so far,
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: getting destroyed by LSU in their opener. And then they
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: didn't even look good against Georgia Southern last week, only
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: winning 22-7. I mean, I think it was a legitimate
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: win statistically for Clemson. Georgia Southern is at least an
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: FBS team that... is usually somewhere around being bowl eligible
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: and stuff like that. They usually get to a bowl,
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure, so they're not a.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: Horrible team, at least.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: I think Clemson might be a little bit undervalued coming
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: into this one, though. What has North Carolina really done?
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: Even though North Carolina's 2-0, yeah, they pulled off that
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: upset in Dublin against TCU. It was a revenge game,
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: and North Carolina only put up 15 points in that game,
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: and it's not exactly impressive.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: And then they beat ETSU, East Tennessee State, in a.
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: kind of sandwich spot, if you want to call it that,
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: after I believe UNC had a week off.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: So maybe it hurt their momentum a little bit.
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: East Tennessee did cover in that game. Like I said,
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: I leaned that way. They were 35-point underdogs, I think,
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: and they lost 35-3. This is going to be UNC's
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: first true road game. And after next week's bye, they
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: do play Notre Dame after that. Now, I'm not going
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: to say they're going to overlook Clemson. I don't think
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: they will because this is a big game. So I
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: don't think it's that much of a look ahead to
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: Notre Dame. But I just think Clemson is being undervalued here, man.
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: They're only a three-point favorite. And it looks like they
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: opened nine and a half. And I don't think there's
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: really any huge personnel change here. So I don't know
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: what's going on with this number here. But I think
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: you're getting value on Clemson. at this point, like I
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: think they're better than North Carolina. I mean, neither team
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: is supposed to be that good this year, but North
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: Carolina is supposed to be pretty bad this year. Like
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: one of the worst teams in the entire conference. Um,
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: you know, I'm not sold on bill Belichick and his
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: man boobs. If you, if you saw that picture of
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: him this week, uh, I, I don't think, I don't
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: think he could do much anymore, man.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: If I never even thought he was a good coach,
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: to be honest, I thought he got lucky.
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: With the, the personnel that he had, uh, with New
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: England and, you know, some of the stuff that they
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: were doing to, uh, gain an edge in those games.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: Although I guess that's the coach's job to do that,
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: but why is he sucked to literally everywhere else in
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: his career besides New England? And basically not even just that,
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: but after Tom Brady left, New England was terrible, even
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: with Belichick still there. So without Brady, Belichick has been
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: terrible everywhere else in his career. So whatever, 50% of tickets,
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: 55% of the cash on, on North Carolina, uh, I
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: don't think I agree with that slight percentage.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Leaning towards North Carolina.
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: I think I would lay the three. I think you
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: can find a three out there. Maybe it's a little
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: bit juiced with Clemson. I don't really want to do it.
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is not one of my plays or anything,
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: but I think I would play Clemson here. I just
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: think the stock is really low on Clemson. I think
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: you're buying low on Clemson, and I still think they're
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: the better team over North Carolina here. even though the
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: records don't indicate that. But Clemson's facing a more difficult
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: schedule because they played LSU. So North Carolina only played TCU.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: LSU is obviously the better of.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Those two teams.
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: And TCU's defense is probably still ass, and North Carolina
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: only put up 15 points against them.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: That's probably not a good sign. All right.
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: Big Ten Network Akron at Minnesota. I don't have much
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: on this game. Minnesota, I mean, they just lost pretty
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: badly to Mississippi State.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: So even though they do have their Big.
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: Ten opener next against Washington, and this game is in
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: between two big conference games, after that embarrassing loss to
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State, I was surprised. I thought Minnesota would do
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: better than that. There was a strong market read on
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: Minnesota last week. There just wasn't really a situation there.
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: Maybe Mississippi State is actually going to be better than
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: we thought, man. I mean, they've been a down program.
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: for a bit now but they've looked good to start
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: the season at least and that was an impressive win
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: for Mississippi State in kind of a weird environment in
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: Minnesota but after that, I don't necessarily think Minnesota's going
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: to totally overlook Akron here with Washington on deck for
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: Minnesota here to start Big Ten play. Akron lost to
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: Wake in their first game. I believe they might have
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: covered in that game, and then they So not too bad.
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: And Wake just covered tonight against Miami. And that was
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: my very, very weak lean that I gave out this
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: morning was correct. I didn't even really have that much
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: of a lean. It was very slight towards Wake in
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: that one. Akron beat Robert Morris last time. So they
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: got a win against an FCS team. It should give
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: them a little bit of positive momentum at least. I
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: don't know what to do with this game, man. I
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: have no real opinion on this. So I'd probably default
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: to reading the market and 72% of tickets, 73% of
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: the cash on Minnesota.
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: So they're definitely public.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: They're also laying 23 and a half with a total
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: only 49 and a half. So it's another situation where
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: I'd probably lean just towards Akron here, taking the dog,
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: taking the points, getting 23 and a half points here
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: with a total of 49, like I said, 49 and
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: a half. It makes more sense to take the underdog,
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: and Minnesota's going to be a public side.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: So those are my thoughts on that game. All right.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I actually didn't look at North Texas, Texas State.
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: I actually skipped completely over that in my handicapping, so
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: I'm going to live handicap this one real quickly. This
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: is on USA Network at noon. Texas State is 0-2,
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: but they had to play Texas in their first game, man,
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: so you knew they weren't going to win that game.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: And then they had a close game against in-state rival
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: UTSA last time out. My problem with Texas State is
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: just that they keep doing the same thing over and
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: over again, man. They won the yardage battle by 100
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: yards against UTSA, and I felt like I was saying
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: that every week last year with Texas State. It was like,
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: Texas State is better than the record looks, man. They
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: dominated the yardage battle, but they lost the turnover battle.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: Well, they're still fucking doing it. Like, they should fire
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: their coach. I don't know what else to tell you.
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: Like.
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: If it's a couple games, I'm like, yeah, that's like
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: an outlier. But I kept saying that over and over
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: again last year. I'm like, nope, Texas State's better than
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: they look. They outgamed their opponent again. They lost the
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: turnover battle again. But they do it every fucking game.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: And they did it again in this game. Like, what gives,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: you know?
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, again, they won the yardage battle. They lost the
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: turnover battle. They lost the game. Probably because of that,
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: they were the better team in the game statistically, but
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: when they keep doing it, I don't know how I
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: can trust Texas State, although what I will say is
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: they're not as bad as an 0-2 record looks, and
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: I think they're probably the better team over North Texas.
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: Although North Texas, pretty impressive win against UNLV last week.
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: They blew out UNLV, just annihilated them. I thought North
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: Texas would cover in that game, but I did not
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: expect that. And they lost to Indiana in week one.
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: Very difficult opponent, obviously. You knew they weren't going to
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: beat Indiana. North Texas, they also don't have continuity coming
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: into this season. They're in a rebuild mode because their
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: coach left and took the quarterback with them over to
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma State. So this North Texas team, I don't know, man.
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: Maybe that game against UNLV, I mean, is UNLV bad?
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard to say. North Texas, they won
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: the game legitimately.
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: They outgained UNLV pretty substantially, but the final score was
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: also still misleading because UNLV had four turnovers in the game.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: So yeah, North Texas definitely should have won, but not
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: by as much as they did on the scoreboard.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: So I think I'm leaning towards Texas State in this one.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: Slightly, uh, 60% of tickets, 67% of the cash on them.
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: They're about minus three. A lot of times the public
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: is going to see an, an own two team against
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: a team that has a win. And if the team
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: that's winless is favored, the public is not going to
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: want to be on them.
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: So that would be Texas state here. Um, I'll lean
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: slightly towards Texas State. Plus, Texas State brought back a
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: lot of their guys from last year, but apparently it's
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: a team that still will give you a lot of yardage.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: And will turn the ball over all the time. So
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: there you go.
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin on Peacock at 1230 Eastern. I
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: don't have a whole lot on this. I mean, Wisconsin,
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: they've done exactly what we expected them to do so far.
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: They lost to Notre Dame, and then they beat Western Illinois.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: Okay. Now, we expect them to beat Eastern Michigan. Yeah,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: but will they cover the spread here? I don't know.
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: Wisconsin has Penn State next, so maybe that's a little
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: bit of a look ahead. Eastern Michigan got a win
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: for us in Week 0, and they haven't won since.
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: I thought they would do better against San Jose State.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: They didn't, and in fact, they were worse in that
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: game than the score looks. And then last week, they
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: couldn't really compete with Michigan State, and Michigan State looks
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: like they might be getting a bit better here in
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: the Pat Fitzgerald era. Now it's a second straight road
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: game for Eastern Michigan here. I got pretty much nothing
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: on this. The money is coming in on Eastern Michigan
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: for what that's worth. Wisconsin, 78% of tickets on them,
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: so Wisconsin is public.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: They're laying 23.5, but it is a really low total, 44.5.
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: Wisconsin, not a good offense. 79% of tickets over on
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: Eastern Michigan. I'd probably agree with that. I'd probably lean
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: towards taking the points if I was going to do
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: anything with it, solely just because the market is saying so,
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: but also, again, getting a huge amount of points in
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: a game with a really low total is usually the
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: way that I would lean. I would not want to
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: lay points in a game with a Low total length
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: points to that degree. No thank you. NC State at
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: Vandy on the SEC network at 1245 Eastern. Vandy, like
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: I said, they kind of struggled against Delaware last week.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Weren't exactly that impressive against in-state rival Austin Peay the
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: game before that.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Like I said, Vandy is.
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: Kind of rebuilding here, man. I mean, they lost some
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: of their guys. They lost their QB. Now they've got
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: to step it up in class, and they've got to
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: play an NC State team that's better than the opponents.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: That they've faced so far.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: NC State really didn't look good against Virginia in week one.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: I thought NC State would do a lot better than that.
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: And NC State bounced back just crushing Richmond last week.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: But that's an FCS team. I mean, what can you
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: really take away from that? I don't know. But beating
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: somebody 73-0 is still pretty impressive. What do we do
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: with this one?
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: Honestly, I have no clue. I have almost no read
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: on this game at all. It's really difficult to figure out.
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: You might have to give NC State a little bit
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: more credit because they've faced some more difficult schedules so
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: far just because they're the only one of.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: These two teams that's faced an FBS team so far.
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: And yeah, they didn't look good in doing so.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in towards Vandy, though. 79% of tickets,
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: 57% of cash on NC State.
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: Public seems to want NC State, and they're one of
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: those dreaded public underdogs for what that's worth. Vandy's about
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: a minus three, three and a half point favorite here. Really,
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: I'm kind of surprised by that. I thought the public
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: would be on the SEC team in Vandy. Plus, I
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: said Vandy's 2-0, right?
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: They are.
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so you'd think the public would just be on
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: Vandy because they haven't really done anything wrong yet. and
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: they're an SEC team, so I am pretty surprised by that.
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: And NC State really didn't look good in that heavily
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: publicized Week Zero game, I think it was, against Virginia.
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: The money's saying Vandy here. You know, I really don't
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: like public underdogs, but I don't know. I mean, the
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: plus for Vandy is maybe they'll bounce back after kind
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: of a lackluster outing against Delaware, but I don't know.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: NC State's the more battle-tested team.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: And they might get up for a game against an SEC.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: So I don't know.
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: That one I kind of like NC State more than Vandy.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: But yeah, there's no way I want to touch that game.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: Skipping some of the FBS-FCS games. 3 p.m.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: CBS Sports. Temple and Toledo here. Don't have a whole
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: lot on this one either. Toledo.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: Was pretty good in a loss to Michigan State in
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: week one. They only lost by 10, so I think
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: they covered. I think the line was 10.5 there. And
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: then they crushed Central Connecticut, an FCS team, last week.
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: But Toledo more than did what they were supposed to
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: do in that one. Now they got Temple here. They
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: do have San Diego State coming up next. I don't
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: know if that's that big of a deal or not.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: Temple is coming off one of their big rivalry-ish games
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: as a little brother against Penn State. Not sure I
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: love the spot for Temple coming off of that. Plus,
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: it's going to be their first true road game here
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: at Toledo. I kind of lean Toledo here. I think
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: Toledo might be a little bit under the radar here.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: The money doesn't agree with that one, though. It's all
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: coming in on Temple. 67% of tickets on Toledo, 73%
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Temple. Toledo initially did move up
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: from 4.5% to 6%, though, so it looks like some
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: initial money did come in on Toledo, but it looks
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: like the buyback is coming in on Temple. I will
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: say it's a pretty low total in the high 40s,
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: so that does help the case for the underdog there.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: But looking at the scheduling and whatever, I don't know, man.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: I kind of like Toledo on that one. Toledo is
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: also the better team, as the oddsmakers are telling you.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: They're supposed to be the better team this year. I
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: think the spot is a little bit better for them,
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: so that's what I got on that game. Not much.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: Kentucky at number nine, Texas A & M on ESPN, 3.30 p.m. Eastern.
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: Texas A & M, I mean, they've done nothing wrong
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: so far. They beat Missouri State and Arizona State fairly handily.
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: But like I said, they weren't really that good in
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: this game against Arizona State. As I pointed out, Arizona
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: State out gained them and Texas A & M definitely
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: took advantage of the turnovers there so that's kind of
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: a knock against A & M they're not as good
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: as they looked in that game at all and statistically
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: they kind of lost that game now they got Kentucky
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: which is their SEC home opener here.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: But Kentucky's kind of an easy team to overlook because
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: they haven't really been that good and A & M' s
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: got LSU on deck. Obviously, that's a huge game. Having
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: to go to Death.
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: Valley, it's going to be a big ranked matchup next week,
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: so I don't love A & M here. They looked
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: a lot better than they were last week. They have
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: a pretty big look ahead here. Kentucky is Yeah, I mean.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: They're 1-1. They did what they're supposed to do. They
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: beat Youngstown State, and then.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: As expected, they lost to Alabama, although I expected better
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: out of Kentucky there. Kentucky was only a 10-point dog
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: in that game, so it looked like Kentucky was going
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: to be able to maybe hang around in that game.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: They certainly didn't, but even so, it is their first
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: road game. I don't love that. It's a hostile environment,
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: so it is a difficult spot. Like, it is a difficult....
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: Task for Kentucky to have to go in there, but
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: I think the spot is worse for A & M,
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: and I think A & M is not as good
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: as they looked last week, and you know you're not
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: going to get any value playing A & M here.
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: They're laying up to 17 now.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: It opened 15.5, and it's up to 17.
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: The money's coming in on Kentucky, so public is on
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: A & M, and because it's an ESPN game, this
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: one is going to.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: Have a lot of betting volume on it.
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: 76% of tickets are on A & M, 54% of
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: the cash on Kentucky. I'll agree with Kentucky in this one.
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: I would take the points with Kentucky. It's a fairly
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: low total as well in the high 40s, so taking
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: 17 looks like not too bad of an idea in
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: a situation like that. Kentucky, I still think their defense
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: tends to not be that bad, and they tend to
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: get themselves in some lower-scoring, ugly games, which I thought
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: was going to happen last week against Alabama, although it didn't. But, yeah,
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: key number 17 here. If you can find a 17
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: on this, which I think you should be able to.
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: By the time the game kicks off tomorrow at some
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: point because the public's coming in on A & M
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: in this one it's going to be somewhat high volume
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: here so yeah I like Kentucky plus the points in
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: that one Florida State at number 10 Alabama on ESPN
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: 3 30 p.m or on ABC excuse me 3 30 p.m
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: eastern I don't know which game is the college game
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: day game although I'm presuming that it's the Big, big
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: game of the night, which, well, I'll get to it
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: when I get to it, but maybe I'm wrong about that, actually.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: Anyway, we all remember Alabama last year. They had that
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: horrible loss early in the season, and it didn't keep
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: them out of the playoffs, though. Alabama still made the playoffs,
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: but I believe that was last year, right? They had
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: that really bad loss to open the season against Florida State,
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: and it looked worse as the season went on because
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: Florida State was bad.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: So does Alabama have revenge in mind here? Maybe. I
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: don't know, man. Alabama, I mean, they haven't done much yet.
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: They beat East Carolina and Kentucky, but going into Kentucky
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: and blowing them out like that, fairly impressive. Florida State, yeah,
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, they have not been totally impressive so far.
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: They beat New Mexico State, not by a ton, and
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: then lost to.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: SMU at home, which... Was a big TV game. It
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: was close.
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, Florida State had chances to win. Maybe you
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: shouldn't knock them too much for that. I believe Florida
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: State does have extra rest here, too.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Am I right about that? I feel like that game
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: was like two weeks ago. Is my memory right? Yeah,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: I am right. So, yeah, Florida State had a bye
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: last week. That was a.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: That was a Monday game, so then Florida State got
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: the bye last weekend. So they haven't played since the 7th,
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: so Florida State does have extra rest. And like I say,
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: with the bye, if you went into the bye on
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: a bad note, I think that will help you. Now,
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know if that was a bad note or
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: a good note because it was a loss, but it
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: was an acceptable loss, kind of, like a close loss
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: against a good team.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: So how much does this rest help Florida State? I
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: don't know exactly. This is a tough game to read, man.
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: Alabama played last week, so they do have a rest
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: disadvantage here. They only have South Carolina next, which is
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: not going to be that much of a look-ahead spot.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: I don't believe.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: Alabama is public, which makes sense. 81% of tickets, 78%
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them. 20.5 point favorite here, but it's.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: A low total. 49.5, man.
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: So, again, maybe that one seals the deal. I feel
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: like I'm just broken record.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: Underdog, underdog, underdog. Not always, but, and of course, none
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: of these have been plays for me except the Bowling
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Green one I gave out so far. I think I
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: would lean.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: Towards Florida State here, I guess, plus the points, although
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: Alabama might remember that game last year. Embarrassing loss and
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: have revenge in mind here, but is that going to
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: be enough motivation that Alabama really just cares about blowing
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: Florida State out by three touchdowns?
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Honestly, I have no idea.
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: Like, Alabama, because they play in the SEC, they have
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: plenty of chances to prove themselves. So I don't think
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: they need style points, you know what I mean, to
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: make the playoffs. You've got to beat the good teams
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: that you're going to play, but you don't really need
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: style points. A team like Notre Dame actually does need
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: style points because they don't play in a conference. So
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: they need to just annihilate teams. But SEC teams don't
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: need to do that, you know what I mean? They
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: just need to win their big games to be like
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: playoff teams.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: That's what I'll say about that. CBS, 3.30 p.m., number 12,
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: USC at Rutgers. Weird spot for USC, man. This is
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: the first time they're leaving the Pacific Coast. It's not
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: an early game.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: It's 3.30, so maybe that'll help them a little bit.
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: They won't have to play at 9 a.m.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: Biological clock time. Even that, I think, is overstated. You
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: know me.
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: I think the late-night... pacific coast games for the east
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: coast teams is worse because you're playing late at night
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: on your biological clock i think it's earlier to play
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: in the morning on your biological clock you know what
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: i mean because you're up you're energized like usually guys
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: work out early you know typically um at least i
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: think if you if you work out at night you're
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: a weirdo um anyway usc they haven't done anything really
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: impressive so far they beat who they were supposed to
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: beat san jose state fresno louisiana They didn't beat Louisiana
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: by much.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: They only won by 19.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: I think Louisiana is a pretty good team in the
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: Sun Belt, at least. And if you look at the
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: box score, that game, USC, and in the first game
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: against San Jose State, USC totally took their foot off
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: the gas. They were winning that game by more. And
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: then I think they just rested all the starters because
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: that seems to be Lincoln Riley. It seems to just
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: be what he does.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: He just.
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: starts resting his guys. And then the game gets a
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: little bit closer at the end. And the game wasn't
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: really what it looked like on the scoreboard. Like it
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: was a blowout for USC, but now this will be
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: their first road game. They got to go all the
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: way across the country to Piscataway, New Jersey.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: It's going to be kind of a weird spot for USC.
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: And they do have a big game on deck against
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: Oregon who plummeted all the way to number 21, dude.
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: And like I said, we couldn't take advantage of that
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: because Oregon's playing right now against Portland state and they're
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: destroying them. Um, you know, so we couldn't really take
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: advantage of the fact that Oregon was plummet, like plummeted
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: too far in the rankings. It was a huge rankings
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: overreaction at Oregon losing one game. You're going to knock
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: them down from number two in the country all the
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: way down to 21 because they lost one game.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: That is such an overreaction, man. Uh, but anyway, um,
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much Oregon is going to move
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: up when they wind up beating Portland state by 77
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: points or whatever. They're going to beat them by, but whatever. Um,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: It could be a look ahead, though, is what I'm
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: saying for USC looking ahead to Oregon here.
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: I'd lean Rutgers here. It looks like a weird spot.
• 46:56
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to want Rutgers here. They're getting three touchdowns here.
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: They're an 0-2 team so far. Of course, famously, they
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: got upset by UMass as a huge favorite. Rutgers in
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: week one, horrible game for them there. They did better
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: against Boston College last week, although they still lost in BC,
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: which I thought Rutgers was going to win that game,
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: to be honest, and have a nice bounce back. They
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: really didn't, but they lost in a pretty close game,
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: at least, although they were losing by more, but they
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: came back. I think statistically it was closer than maybe
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: the The lead made it look that because BC had
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: a pretty big lead at one point there. Rutgers will
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: be hungry at least to try to get their first
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: win here, man. It's a weird travel spot for USC.
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: So that is how I would lean here. What do
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: I have to do to fix this? I blocked the
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: FAQ element finally. So that's not here anymore. But I
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: got to figure out how to.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, man. There we go. All right. Yeah, I got
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: to figure out how to get the percentages back here. Yeah, USC,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: 92% of tickets, 85% of the cash on them. They
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: dropped from an opener at 24.5 down to 21.5. So
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: you missed one key number already. If you like Rutgers, 24.5
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: is gone, but you could still get 21.5.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: I still would lean that way. I'd lean towards Rutgers
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: covering in that one. But not a strong opinion from me.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: ESPN 2 at 3.30 p.m. We do have another ranked...
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: This is a ranked, ranked matchup here. This is one
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: of the only ones of the week. I think there
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: are only two.
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: Number 16, SMU, is at number 23, Louisville. The public
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: might be coming in towards SMU here, man, because I
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: think the public is going to kind of look towards.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: Like, the public looks at the rankings, you know what
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: I mean? Oh, SMU's the better team. Oh, Louisville's a
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: little bit of a favorite here. Oh, give me the
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: better team as the underdog, you know what I mean? Like,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: that's kind of the public's mentality.
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: They see, oh yeah, the better ranked team as an underdog, okay.
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: Not sure that that's the right way to look here, though. Now, SMU,
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: they did bring back a lot of their players this year.
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: They brought back their quarterback. Louisville did not bring back
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: their quarterback. They brought back their running back, who was
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: really a stud. And Louisville's looked pretty good so far, man. Yeah,
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: they have a loss, but it was a really difficult
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: game against Ole Miss. And Louisville played pretty well in
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: that game. They made a huge comeback, and they almost
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: won the game.
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: I believe it was overtime. right?
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: Or they lost right at the end. No, it wasn't overtime.
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: They lost right at the end. I remember watching the
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: end of it, though. And then Louisville blew out Villanova,
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: and that beat one of my plays, if you remember.
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: I thought Louisville was in a sandwich. Villanova's a solid
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: FCS team, man. They're a ranked FCS team. So I
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: thought they'd be able to somewhat compete in that game. Nope,
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: Louisville annihilated them. So I think what Louisville has done
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: is more impressive so far. And I believe SMU annihilated
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: Louisville in SMU last year, if I'm not mistaken. So
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: this could be a little bit of revenge for Louisville here.
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: I might be wrong about that, but I think I'm
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: right about that. Yes, SMU beat them 38-6 at home
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: last year. So maybe Louisville remembers that. Maybe it's a
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: little revenge. SMU, they've not impressed me so far. They
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: won at Florida State. That's a fine win, I guess.
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: And then they beat UC Davis.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: Who cares? So Louisville's the more battle-tested team here.
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: The oddsmakers are telling you that even though SMU is
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: slightly better, it's not by that much. Louisville's a two-point
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: favorite here, one and a half. The money seems to
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: be definitely indicating on Louisville. SMU, 63% of tickets on them.
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: 76% of the cash on Louisville, though. So Louisville's getting
• 50:33
  Speaker 4: the money. I think I agree with that. It's a
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: somewhat high total in this one, so... Seems like it's
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: expected to be a lot of scoring in this one too.
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: I could see that being the case. I think both
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: these offenses are definitely capable and probably have the edge
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: over the defenses. Although a lot of times I do
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: like defenses in a big game like this. Sometimes the
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: defenses will show up and play better, but whatever. I'm
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: not really much of a totals guy, as you know,
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: except for Major League Baseball. Louisville seems like the right
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: side to me. So laying one and a half or
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: two I think makes sense there. Obviously, it doesn't make
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: the cut for me. Utah State at number 17, Utah
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: on Fox. So we have a rivalry game here that's
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: a little bit one-sided in recent years. So Utah State
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: is the little brother for sure here. Utah State probably.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: The game means more to Utah State here. Utah looked
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: really good in destroying Arkansas last week. They beat Idaho
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: before that by a lot. So losing Kyle Whittingham over
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: to Michigan and having the new coach step up for
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: Utah hasn't been a problem so far. And I didn't
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: think it would be because Utah, they promoted from within
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: and their new coach was already in the system and
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: they already knew he was going to be.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: The next coach for a while.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: So they're just maintaining their system here. But They just
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: beat Arkansas. They do have a big 12 game next.
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: They start conference play next, like I said, at Iowa State.
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: So it's a little bit sandwichy, I think, for Utah here.
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: And Utah State hasn't won a game yet. Utah State
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: was really.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: Pitiful against Idaho State in their first game, and that
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: was bad, dude. Losing to Idaho State like that, not
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: a good thing. Although I think Idaho State's not that
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: bad for an FCS team. Utah State was still a
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: pretty big favorite, though. 15.5, losing the game outright.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: Well, Utah State bounced back pretty nicely, and they only
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: lost to Washington by two last time, although they caught
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: Washington off of their rivalry game or whatever. But Utah State,
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: much better performance. But now that's my problem with Utah
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: State here, is now they're playing two ranked matchups in
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: a row on the road. They came fairly close to Washington.
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: I think they were losing by two scores, though, to Washington.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: They scored.
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: with not much time left to cut it to one
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: score when there really wasn't much of a chance they
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: were actually going to win. But still, Utah State played
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: really close as a big underdog in that game against Washington.
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: They definitely covered. After a performance like that, it's going
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: to be tough to maintain that level again in the
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: next game. So that would be my worry with Utah State.
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: I think I still lean Utah State here, though. But
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: it makes me worried when they're coming off a game
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: where they played really well as a big underdog.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: Utah is getting all the money here, though. 66% of tickets,
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: 92% of the cash on them. They're all the way
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: up to a 28-point favorite here.
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: Now, although if you're going to try to play Utah,
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: I would find a 27.5 somewhere, which still exists at
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: numerous places. But interesting, though, the lean of the sharper books,
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: like the C book that's in Vegas here, They're at
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: the 28.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: So the sharp lean is on Utah in this one.
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: And usually the public books like DK and whatever, those
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: are usually the places that have the heavier favorite price.
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: Like the favorite is usually heavier favorite of those books
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: as the public likes to play favorites.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: But in this case, that is not the case.
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: The sharper books actually have the favorite heavier, more heavily favored.
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: So the money is definitely backing Utah in that one.
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: And maybe it is just because Utah.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: State It's coming off that really close game. I don't know, man.
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: This is a big rivalry game for Utah State. So
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: I think I slightly disagree. I think I lean Utah
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: State slightly.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, man. Maybe I'll... I reserve the
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: right to change.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: My opinion on some of these, man. But this is
• 54:12
  Speaker 4: just what I'm thinking right now, at least. But I
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: do have to make my pick seven. I'll lock that
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: in for tomorrow. I didn't use any of tonight's games
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: for it. Got to lock all that in. And, of course,
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: I'm going to use my four plays for it. But
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: I got to pick other games as well.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: And, yeah, Coastal is probably going to be one of
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: them for me as well.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: I forget where my train of thought was going there, but, yeah.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: And I'm in, like, the ESPN pick-ems and stuff like
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: that as well, where ESPN just– they give you all
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: the ESPN TV games, though, which is kind of annoying
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: because so many of them are big favorites.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: Like, that's not an interesting game to pick, man. You
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: know what else is not an interesting game?
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: UTEP at number 19, Michigan on Big Ten Network, except
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: this is going to be a play– It just keeps
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: getting uglier for me. We're going to take UTEP plus
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: 35 here against Michigan. This is another game with a
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: really low total. I like getting all these points with
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: a really low total. But you know what we're doing here, man.
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: The rankings makers just keep Dude, they overreact so much.
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: Michigan State came into the season number 16. They should
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: have lost to Western Michigan.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: And what happened? They plummeted completely out of the rankings.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: Then they beat Oklahoma.
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: And I gave you guys Oklahoma as my best play
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: of the week last week.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: We won that one. Michigan won outright. Because I thought
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Michigan was just.
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: It was just such an overreaction to the Western Michigan game.
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: I think Western Michigan's not that bad. And Western Michigan
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: was the only team that beat... here on the show
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: last week as far as the plays I gave out. So, yeah,
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: I think Western Michigan's not a bad team, at least
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: as far as MAAC teams go. And you remember in
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: my MAAC preview, because of all the returning starters, I
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: actually liked Western Michigan as a value play to win
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: that conference. Anyway, they're not as good as Michigan, obviously, though.
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: Michigan played badly, but Michigan had a much better game
• 56:09
  Speaker 4: against Oklahoma. Huge win for them. And now Michigan's ranked again,
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: number 19. They're playing a UTEP team they might look
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: right past. And who does Michigan play next?
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: They start Big Ten play against ranked Iowa. It's been
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: pretty good so far. This is a sandwich spot, man.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: Michigan.
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: They're coming off what I would kind of consider to
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: be their legitimizer game.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: It's kind of a thing just in.
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: College football or maybe college basketball where that first big
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: win that you get that legitimizes you in the public's eyes, right?
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: Like Michigan was not legitimate in the public's eyes after
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: that first game. Now they beat Oklahoma. Yeah, the public's
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: going to be like, yep.
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: Okay, we were wrong. Michigan's legit. They should blow out UTEP.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: I don't think so, man. I don't think so.
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: This Michigan team, you're asking them to cover a 35-point spread,
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: and they haven't scored more than 17 points in either
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: game so far. In fact, their combined score in their
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: first two games is not even 35.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: It's 30. I mean, and you're asking them to.
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know UTEP is worse than Western Michigan
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: and Oklahoma. Yeah, of course they are.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: UTEP sucks. But still, this is a ridiculous ask. 35 points....
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: You got to get the key number here, by the way,
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: because it is 34 and a half in a lot
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: of books. And I think you will find a 35
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: if you have enough books available. I'd still do it
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: probably at 34 and a half. It's just 35 is
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: a key number, of course. It's right on a number
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: of touchdowns, the five touchdown mark here. Once you get
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: up to those higher numbers, it doesn't matter as much.
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: But yeah, horrible spot for Michigan here. And there's another
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: aspect to this, too, where Who.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: Did Oklahoma play in Week 1? Do we remember? Oh, yeah,
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: that's right. Oklahoma played UTEP in Week 1. And what
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: did they do?
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: They beat UTEP 51-0. So the public's going to probably
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: see that. Oh, yeah, Oklahoma beat UTEP 51-0. Michigan beat Oklahoma.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: So that means Michigan should beat UTEP by more than 51. So,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: of course, they're going to win by 35, right? That's
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: what the public is going to think doing that transitive
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: property stuff. I'm telling you, that's not the way that
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: it works. And Michigan, their.
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: Offense is not getting a lot of respect here. This total,
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: 48 and a half, that's telling you something. This is
• 58:22
  Speaker 4: a low total. I don't know if I've ever seen
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: a spread this high with a total this low. 35-point
• 58:28
  Speaker 4: spread with a 48 and a half. And yes, I
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: do see that the Sharp book here in Vegas is
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: actually at the 35, and a lot of the other
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: books are at 34.5, but whatever. Most of them, they're
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: pretty much all 35. I see 34.5 with heavy juice
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: in a lot of these books. So I think you
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: can find a 35 out there. It opened 36.5, by
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: the way, but the public's coming in on Michigan, so
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: 81% of tickets on them, 66% of the cash. I'd
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: still do it at 34.5, but I think you'll be
• 58:56
  Speaker 4: able to find a 35 on this.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: I like it.
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: Again, it's a huge spread with a low total, too,
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: so I like that. With a low total, it's going
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: to be more difficult for Michigan to cover. We can
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: see Michigan's offense has not improved. put up offensive numbers
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: that are good enough to cover a line like this, man,
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: even though UTEP will be the weakest opponent they've faced
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: so far.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: UTEP, they'll at least try to get up for this game.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: This will be... Their biggest game on their remaining schedule.
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: And yes, I know they got blown out by Oklahoma.
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: But UTEP was at least good last week against a
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: little brother, Texas Southern, in the state of Texas.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: They blew them out. So at least that'll give UTEP
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: some confidence and some momentum coming into this one.
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: Even though it was a game they were supposed to win, obviously.
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: But this is one of the biggest games remaining on
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: the schedule. This is a big game for them at
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: the big house, man. And it does seem like Michigan.
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: Like at home, it seems like they don't really step
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: it up that well in some of these games against
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: lesser teams. I mean, we just saw it with Western Michigan.
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: Michigan didn't pay attention to them and didn't play well. Now,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: do I think this game is going to be close?
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: No, not really.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: But can UTEP come within 35? Yeah, I think so.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: So let's do it. Play UTAP, hope they lose by 20-something,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: and Michigan get in, get out. Maybe Michigan will start
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: packing it in early. With a game like this, the
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: back door can always be open, man, because Michigan might
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: have a big lead, and then, oh, we got to
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: start getting ready for Iowa now, and they might just
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: start putting backups in, and who knows?
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So the back door tends
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: to be open in a game like that. All right.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: What else we got here?
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: I'm skipping the non-TV and non- FBS games at least here.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: Actually, let me see. How many games do I have
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: left here? Am I through about half of the schedule?
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: Let me see.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it feels like it. I think maybe I'll take
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: a break. Let me do one more game, I guess,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: and then I'll take a break. Once I get to
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: the evening games, maybe I'll take a break. Western Kentucky
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: at number four, Indiana on Peacock. I don't have much
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: on this game. Indiana, I mean, yeah, they've been, you know,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: they've been good so far, but they've played two bad teams,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: North Texas and Howard especially. North Texas, yeah, they're an
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: FBS team, but like I said, they lost their quarterback
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: and coach coming into this year.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: We know Indiana, I mean, they're.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: A wagon, although really we should call Oklahoma a wagon,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: but Oklahoma's not as good as Indiana. So Indiana, they
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: haven't been tested yet, but Western Kentucky's not going to
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: be that much of a test either. Indiana does have
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: Northwestern next. That'll be their Big Ten opener. Maybe they
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 4: start overlooking Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky has been atrocious so far. Yeah,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: they lost to Georgia last week. I mean, they weren't
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: expected to do anything against Georgia, but they lost pretty badly, 70-20.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: And really damning, I would say, is Western Kentucky in
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: Week 1.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: They were a.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: Favorite, I think, at Nevada last And the line just plummeted.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: I guess the professionals not high on Western Kentucky and
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: what happened? They got absolutely annihilated by Nevada in that game.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: And now this is going to be Western Kentucky's third
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: straight road game to open the season, man.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: That's tough. Um, not an easy spot for Western Kentucky here, man.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: Uh, I would not really want to back them here
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: in this one, but you know, Indiana, you're going to
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: have to pay way too much of a price for it. Um,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: Indiana is very public. 95% of tickets, 93% of the
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: cash on them. They're laying 44 and a half here.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: Total is somewhat high. It's 60.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: That is pretty high.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: Cause Indiana is expected to put up points in this
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: one against, I think a Western Kentucky defense.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: That's probably not too good.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: Especially, I mean, you've seen what they did in their
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: first two games. Their defense was pretty much non-existent. Yeah.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, the public is, is definitely on Indiana. The
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: market read is saying to go against them. I don't
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: think I, yeah. I mean, I think I might lean
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: towards laying it with Indiana on that one.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah. I mean, I guess there's not much
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: value there and doing it though.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, if any, there probably isn't any value in
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: doing that because the public's only going to play Indiana
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: on that one, but I don't know, man.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's, it's an ugly game though. All right.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: Um, If you want me to talk about any of
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: these other games, I can. Like the ones that I'm
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: skipping that are non-FBS, whatever. I won't have much of
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: an opinion on really any of them, though.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: Except I think I had one opinion on one of them.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: Did I skip it yet? Let me see. It would
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: have been Oklahoma State. No, I haven't gotten to it yet.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: Stanford and Duke on the CW. This would be a
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: weird spot for Stanford to have to go play in CW.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: the Eastern time zone, of course, but it's not really
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: an early game or anything. So whatever Duke is to,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: you know, I don't think Duke is anywhere near as
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: good as, um, what they were last year. You know,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: when they, um, won the ACC Duke, they did just
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: pull off an upset at Illinois last week. And it's
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: kind of telling that Illinois was favored against it because
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: it's Illinois team.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's that good either.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: Duke, um, Duke is expected to be down this year,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: and they beat two other teams that I thought would
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: take a step back this year, too. Tulane and Illinois,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 4: so I'm not too impressed by Duke getting those wins.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: I did like Duke to cover last week against Illinois,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: and they won outright.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: Okay, cool. Now they got Stanford at home.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: Maybe Duke should win this game, but it would be
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: just because it's a weird travel spot, I think, for Stanford. Stanford, yeah,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: they didn't look good against Miami, but Stanford has more
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: rest here, so the schedule makers were nice to them.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: And Stanford hasn't played since September 4th, which was that
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: bad game where we took a loss on the show
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: against Miami. I thought it was a spot to play Stanford, man,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 4: and it didn't happen. But you know what I always say,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: when you have a bye and you're coming off a
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: really bad performance like Stanford was, a lot of times
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: you'll play better after that. So even though they're going
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: to the East Coast here or the Eastern time zone,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, Stanford's the more battle-tested team and they're the
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: only one of these teams that's played like a really
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 4: legitimate foe or legitimate team, I should say, in Miami.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: And plus, Stanford has the extra rest here. I probably
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: like Stanford in this one, and the money does agree
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: with that one. Duke, 84% of tickets on them. 82%
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Stanford. If you like Stanford, you're
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: getting 10, 10.5 here. So you'd be getting on that
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 4: key number there. So yeah, I think I lean Stanford,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 4: which is what the money is saying in that one.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: Louisiana Tech at Baylor on ESPNU, 4 p.m.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: I don't have much on this game. Baylor, they lost
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: their one tough game so far against Auburn on a
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: neutral close game. They did what they were supposed to do,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: and they beat Prairie View last time out.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: They should beat Louisiana Tech here. The spot might not
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: be great for La Tech. I know we took La
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: Tech last week, and they covered against LSU, but... LSU
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: was definitely not focused. LSU had a bunch of turnovers
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 4: in that game. Louisiana Tech had a 100-yard pick six
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: in the game. In fact, when LSU was about to
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: go up 17-0, Louisiana Tech took it back the other
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: way and made it 10-7. So maybe we got a
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: little bit lucky. with Latek covering in this one. I mean,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: LSU did dominate them yardage-wise. Both teams had a ton
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: of turnovers in the game. It was just a sloppy
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 4: game all around. But when it's a sloppy game, even
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: for both teams, it's hard for the favorite to cover, man,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: especially when LSU was laying all those points. So we
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: did get the win with Latek. Latek's coming off that.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: This will be another big game for them, though, going
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 4: to play Baylor here. And for Baylor, they do have
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: a big 12 play to start next, at least against Colorado.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: I don't have much of an opinion on this game, though.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: The money is saying La Tech here.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: Baylor, 71% of tickets on them, 56% of the cash
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: on La Tech. It is another low total in the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: high 40s with Baylor laying 20, 20.5 here. So it
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: is another situation where if you take the dog here,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: Maybe it's the right move because you're getting a huge
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: dog in a game with a really low total again.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: So probably I guess that's the lean.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of tech plus the points, even though
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: they're coming off a game where they were not as
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: good as maybe the final score made it.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: The final score still didn't make them look good. So
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: Nobody will really read into that, I guess I would say.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: But I think the game probably means a little bit
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: less to Baylor at the very least.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: Mississippi State at South Carolina. This is an interesting one.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: An SEC matchup here. South Carolina, they've beaten nobody so far.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: Kent State and Towson, whatever.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: They handled their business. They won. They put up a
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: lot of offense, but Now.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: That they're starting SEC play, I'm not convinced that South
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: Carolina is going to be that good offensively. Not convinced
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: that Sellers is that good as their quarterback.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: He's still there. Shane Beamer is still their coach. I
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: don't know. South Carolina has been kind of mediocre, man.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: They do have Alabama next, but will they overlook their
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: first SEC opponent? Probably not.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: Mississippi State has been more battle-tested. They played Minnesota last week.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: They crushed UL Monroe in Week 1, whatever. Minnesota, that
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: was a big road win for them last week, and now, yes,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: it's their second straight road game. But Mississippi State is,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, they're a more battle-tested team here, so...
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: I think I kind of like Mississippi State in this one,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: but the money's laying it with South Carolina.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: Minus three and a half, minus four.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: 59% of tickets on Mississippi State, 51% of the cash
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: on South Carolina. Professionals, I think, do have South Carolina
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: ranked as the better team. The oddsmakers are kind of
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: telling you that because they're laying a little bit more
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: than home field here, but... I don't know, man, Mississippi state,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: they've been better than we thought so far.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: Uh, kind of impressive so far.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: And again, they're the only one of these two teams
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: that's faced like a really legitimate opponent so far in Minnesota. So,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, Minnesota, I think is at least legitimate enough.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: At least I will say, um, like South Carolina faced
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 4: two really weak teams so far so Mississippi State has
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: the tougher straight schedule so far all right now I'll
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: be right back and I'll talk about some of these
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: evening games here I'm going to talk about some of
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: the ones that are like kind of rivalry ish games
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: as well and whatever and maybe there's some angle on
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: some of those.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: I do have two more plays to give out as well.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back. Yep.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: Inside, I want to kill myself. We were on an
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: 0-7 run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: to start off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: 1-5.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this, man. With the
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season, man. With weekends.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: Slump.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: March 8th?
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: Back with you as I always am. Until I die,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: at least. 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: for me. 0-5, the worst month that I've ever had
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: in my 18 years doing this.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: even know what I should do at this point other
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: than potentially end it all.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: All right, as we get to some of these evening
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: games here, we do have East Carolina, Old Dominion. This
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: one was a little bit interesting when I looked at it.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: Old Dominion is kind of in a Virginia sandwich. They
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: just played at Virginia Tech. They lost by 23, but
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: they always kind of get up for a game like that,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: and they have JMU on deck, which is another Virginia game.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: So Old Dominion, maybe.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: Not in the greatest spot here, even though I guess
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: they're battle-tested, at least because they faced.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: Virginia Tech, but East Carolina's battle-tested as well. They had
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: to play Alabama, and then they lost last week as
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: a favorite. East Carolina lost to in-state little brother App State,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: so I like East Carolina more in this game. I
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: think nobody's going to really want them because they're owned too. Yeah,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 4: I think East Carolina might be the right play. to
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: making this one, with Old Dominion kind of being a
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: little bit of a sandwich-ish spot there. And I like
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: playing on teams that lost as a favorite, like ECU did,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 4: because a lot of.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: Times they'll tend to bounce back.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: And East Carolina did outgain App State in the game
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: by a little bit, so they could have won the game,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: but they also had turnovers that kind of did them
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: in in that game, it looks like. Um, the money
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: does agree here at 65% of tickets, 89% of the
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: cash on East Carolina.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: They're plus three.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: It's a game with a pretty low total, although it
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: is also a really low spread at three, but I
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: think I would take the three points with East Carolina
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: in that one.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: Uh, we have FIU FAU, which.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: Is a big rivalry in Florida, Florida international, not Florida,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: Illinois against Florida Atlantic, not Florida, Alabama. Uh, FAU is
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: coming off a nice upset win against Navy, but they
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: are battle-tested. They played Florida and then Navy, although Florida
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: killed them. And I thought FAU would actually do better
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: in that game than they did. FAU coming off the
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: game against Navy. possible, maybe a little bit of a letdown,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: but I'm not so sure about that because I believe
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: FIU did upset Florida Atlantic last year. I think FIU
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: had to go to FIU last year and FIU beat them.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure. Uh, so maybe a little bit of revenge.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: I can look, I think it's a little bit of
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: revenge for FIU here. So there is that.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: So these teams, it's the type of revenge that does
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: matter because it's a rivalry. FIU won the game by
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: 10 last year.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: Uh, As far as FIU is concerned, they lost to
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: South Florida. They actually played better than it looked on
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: the scoreboard in that loss to South Florida, so they
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: were actually not bad in that game.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: Then they beat Buffalo last time out. Pretty difficult spot.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: They still beat Buffalo and covered in a Florida sandwich,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: if you will.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 4: So I think they're going to get up for this
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: game as well. You know, I mean, this game is difficult.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to do with it. I think
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: maybe FIU is the right side. If you look at FIU,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: even though they're maybe a little bit more battle-tested, that
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: was a.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Big upset win over Navy.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: The reason to play FIU would be the revenge angle here,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 4: but I don't know if that's enough. The money's coming
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: in on FIU. 50% of tickets and 79% of the
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: cash on them. If you like them, you miss the seven, though.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: It's pretty much six and a half everywhere. Maybe you'll
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: be able to find a book that may get back
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 4: to seven. I don't really think so, though, because the
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: public is not heavy on one side or the other
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: in this one. But it looks like just the money
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: is coming in on FIU there from the professionals. It
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: is a high total in that game, though, in the 60s.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: So taking the points is a little bit less enticing
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: because of that. Charlotte and App State was a little
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: bit interesting to me because this is a little brother,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: big brother game.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: Switch type of situation where Charlotte, I'm pretty sure considers
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: themselves to be the little.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: Brother against basically all the other North Carolina schools, including
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 4: app state app state is now shifting from the role
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: of little brother where they pulled off an upset at
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: East Carolina to now being the big brother against Charlotte
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: and Charlotte will be gunning for them. And then app
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 4: state has another little brother situation next week where they
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: have to go to NC state. So I think there's
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: a sandwich spot for app state, uh, playing two of
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: the bigger teams, at least one of the bigger teams,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: NC State coming up next in North Carolina, and another
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: school that's bigger than they are, East Carolina, and pulling
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: off an upset against them. So I think this is
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 4: kind of a letdown spot for App State off of that,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: kind of a sandwich spot. A game where it's a
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: little brother, big brother sandwich, basically, where they're the big
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: brother in this game, but the little brother in the
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: other two games surrounding it. Meanwhile, Charlotte, yeah, losing to
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 4: the Citadel was bad. There's no doubt about that. Yeah,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 4: disgusting loss, but I gave out Charlotte as a play
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: last week against Ole Miss. Ole Miss was in a
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: bad spot. Charlotte covered, believe it or not. They did
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: get a win for us because the spread was insane.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: It was like 47 and a half. So we got
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: the cover with Charlotte there. Now they're at least somewhat
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: battle-tested after that. Now coming into this game against App
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: State here, I like Charlotte in this one. I think
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: they're at least going to be motivated here. App State's public,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 4: 84% of tickets, only 71% of the cash on them.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 4: App State's now going from being like a six-point underdog
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 4: last week or whatever it was to now being.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: A 17.5-point favorite.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: So I like to fade teams that go from one
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: week being an underdog And especially if they played well
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: to then being a huge favorite the next week. Yeah,
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: I like to fade teams like that. So this one
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: is close to making the cut for me as well.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: I like Charlotte in this one. Maybe this one goes
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: in my pick seven or whatever. I don't think I
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: like this one enough to put it on my card,
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: but you also missed a little bit of.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: The number there.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: 20 and a half is where it opened, but you're
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 4: still getting 17, 17 and a half, which is a
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: key number there.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: So I would lean Charlotte in that one. Plus the points.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: But yeah, the number's a little bit gone there. Marshall
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 4: at Missouri State. CBS Sports here in the evening. Missouri
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: State got blown out by A & M in their
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: first game.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: Texas A & M. That was expected.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 4: They bounced back and beat Lindenwood, which was also expected
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: last week. So now they have a little bit of
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: confidence after beating a small guy. last week they get
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 4: marshall here they do have smu on deck which is
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: kind of a bigger game um reminiscent of last year
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: i gave up missouri state against smu last year and
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: kind of a weird spot for smu having to go
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: to missouri state which our friend justin who's out there
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 4: somewhere i think remembered uh that he he'll remember that
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: game uh it was a win for us on the
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 4: show with They lost to Penn State in their first game,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: so kind of a similar schedule.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: Got shut out by a better team, a much better
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: team in week one, a ranked team, in fact. And
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: then both teams bounced back in the most recent game,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: although for Marshall, they beat MTSU. MTSU is at least
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: not an FCS team, although they're not a very good team.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: And Marshall was an 11.5-point favorite, although they dropped from 17.5.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: But they were a double-digit favorite, Marshall was, and they
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 4: only won the game by two points. And they lost
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: the yardage battle. That's what concerns me with Marshall. Because
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: normally I would say, well, yeah, Marshall didn't play that
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: well as a big favorite, right?
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: They were winning by eight late in the game. It
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: was still a one-score game.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 4: And in fact, they dodged a two-point conversion late in
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: the game that would have tied the game for MTSU.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: So Marshall did not play well, but a lot of
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: times what I will say is when a big favorite
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: doesn't play well, they bounce back and they play better
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: in the next game. And maybe that will be the
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: case for Marshall here, but I worry about it because
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: they were bad.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: Like, they got outgained, I think is what I said, right,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: in that game against MTSU. That's not a good sign.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: Marshall did not play well in that game. In fact, statistically,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: they should have lost that game. So, yeah, I mean,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: I still think I would lean Marshall here, and the
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: money seems to agree. It looks like Missouri State is
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: a dreaded public home underdog. Very rare.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: Very rare that the public is going to come in
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: on a Home dog, because they usually don't like underdogs,
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: and it's also not as common to have a road favorite.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: And usually if there is a road favorite, it's a
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: good enough team that the public will be coming in
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: on them, but not here. 60% of tickets, 59% of
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 4: the cash on at Missouri State. The money is saying Marshall.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: The number's gone up a little bit to a minus 4%.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to want to do it. Nobody's going to
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: want to lay the points with Marshall, I don't think,
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: in that game.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: I would not imagine. I think maybe that's the right
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: way to look, is to lay it with Marshall.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: But also, it is kind of a weird spot for them.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 4: Missouri State's fairly new to FBS, and Marshall having to
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: go all the way out there, kind of a weird
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: spot for them. All right, Troy at number 20, Missouri,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 4: as we get... We still have a lot of games left, geez.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: Missouri... A little bit of extra time off. They beat
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: Kansas in that Friday night game. That was a big
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: game for them, though. The border war.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: Winning at Kansas. Missouri was, yeah, they won. They were
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 4: the better team in the game. Now they face Troy.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: They might overlook Troy a little bit, man.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: Missouri starts SEC playing next against Mississippi State. So kind
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 4: of a sandwich-ish looking spot here for Missouri State. And
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: maybe that extra time off won't help them because they're
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: riding that high of beating their rival, Kansas. And sometimes
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: when that happens, you have extra time It's.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: Bad, and that extra time, you just kind of bask
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: in that win. So I kind of like Troy in
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: this one. Troy is sneakily 2-0 so far, but they
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: beat Sam Houston and then Alabama State. I mean, that's
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: an FCS team, so Troy is definitely not battle-tested so far.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: Missouri is, so I don't really want Troy either.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: But I think if I had to play this game,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: as I'm giving out opinions on everything here, I would
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: lean towards Troy in this one. Missouri, 85% of tickets,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: 75% of the cash on them. They're a 27-point favorite.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: Total's not that high at 50. So money is seemingly
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: agreeing with this with Troy. I think that's what I
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: would do. If you're actually going to do it, I
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: would try to find the 27.5 because that's the key
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: number there, 27. You get the hook on that. That
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: would be nice. Take at least 27, I guess, with Troy.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: I think you'd be able to find at least that
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: out there.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: Uh, Florida and Auburn is the primetime ESPN game. Although
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 4: I thought that, um, the game day was going to
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: be at the, uh, I mean, of course the big
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: game is this ABC game, LSU and Ole Miss, which
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: I haven't gotten to yet. I thought that's where game
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: day would be. Maybe it still is.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: Cause ABC and ESPN are all owned by the same
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 4: parent company.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: So whatever.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: Um, But yeah, Florida and Auburn, interesting SEC matchup between
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: two teams that haven't really been that good over the
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: recent years, but I think this will be a competitive matchup.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: It looks like it should be.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 4: Auburn, decent win over Baylor in week one, and then
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: they did what they were supposed to do, and they
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: clobbered Southern Miss last week.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: Now they've got a big game against Florida. Both teams,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: to me, I think will show up for this. Florida...
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: has had the lesser schedule so far. So Auburn's more
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: battle-tested because they had a legitimate win against Baylor. Florida
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: doesn't have that yet.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 4: Florida's wiped out their opponents so far, FAU and Campbell,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 4: but is that really that impressive?
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: This is their first road game of the season.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: Florida does have Ole Miss next, which is a ranked matchup,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: although I don't think they're going to overlook their first
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 4: SEC game of the season, but still, I think Auburn is...
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: Maybe the way to look up, I was wrong. Oregon
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: did not win 77-0. It's going to be 84-0. My apologies.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: As I was watching the way that game was going,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: only in Auburn in this one. I mean, Florida seems
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: to just get more name recognition, so they tend to
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: kind of be public. Auburn is a little bit more
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: battle-tested here, and I think Auburn... I mean, you know
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: they piss me off because they seem to just turn
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: the ball over every time I play them, and they
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: screw me. But this isn't a play for me, but
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: I'll lean Auburn in this one. They're a home dog
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: here of a couple points. 58% of tickets, 52% of
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 4: the cash on Florida, so the money seems to agree
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: with the Auburn side here at plus two, two and
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: a half here.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: So that is the way I would lean in that one.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: Okay. I was going to just go over it quickly.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: Murray State and Oklahoma State, even though Murray State's an
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: FCS team, we know what Oklahoma State did last week.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 4: They've been a zigzag team so far. They got upset
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 4: by Tulsa in week one, the little brother Tulsa there.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: And what happened after that? Oh, yeah, Oklahoma State. I
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: thought they were the right side in the game last week,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: but I did not think they would win outright. And
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: they did. They beat Oregon outright.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 4: Oregon was number six, sorry, not number two, but whatever.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: Oregon still plummeted way too much in the rankings just
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 4: for that one loss there. Oklahoma State, huge win for them.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: So you got to think this is a letdown spot
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: for them here. And Oregon State does have Oklahoma State,
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: excuse me, does have West Virginia on deck. So they
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: start their Big 12 play next against West Virginia. So
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: I think it's a sandwich spot for them. They might
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 4: overlook this FCS opponent in Murray State here. Murray State
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: has not been good so far, though. They lost to
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: Eastern Illinois, and then they lost to an FBS team,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: at least, MTSU.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: But they're still not a good team. Middle Tennessee State.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: Murray State finally got a win last time against Valpo, though,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: so that's at least good, because what that does is
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: it gets that chip off your shoulder.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: You know, like, we haven't won a game yet. What gives?
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: Now they have. They can put that to rest. Play
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit looser. This will be their biggest game
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: of the season.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 4: They get to play one of the big boys, Oklahoma State.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: You know, biggest game of the season for them. Biggest
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: game on their schedule. For Oklahoma State, this is one
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 4: of the least games on their schedule. So Murray State
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: is the way to play this game, in my opinion. Also,
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 4: you're factoring in the major letdown spot Oklahoma State is in.
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 4: If you take it, you're getting 56 and a half. Basically,
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: that's the spread, not the total. The spread is, the
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: total is 70 and a half. Looks like 60% of tickets,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: 70% of the cash on Murray State.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: I don't think I want to do it.
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: You know, I mean, Oklahoma State could name the score,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 4: but I just don't really think they have incentive to,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 4: and it's a letdown spot technically for them. So I'd
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: take the points with Murray State if I was going
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: to play that game. All right, what else do we
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: have here? Again, if you want me to talk about
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: some of these other games, I can, but a lot
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: of them are kind of uninteresting and not TV games.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: Some of them are not FBS games. Let me see.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: Were there any other interesting games? Well, Middle Tennessee, like
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: I said, they're playing Nevada. Middle Tennessee almost pulled off
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 4: the upset against Marshall, so it could be a little
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: bit of a letdown. off of that, but it will
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: be their FBS home opener, and like I said, they
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: actually outgained Marshall in that game, so they actually played
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: better than they.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: Looked in that game.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: Nevada, I mean, they're coming off an ugly-looking loss to
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: Montana State. After crushing Western Kentucky, who really doesn't look
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: good right now. Montana State, though, was actually like a
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 4: five-point favorite in that game, believe it or not. That's
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 4: how bad Nevada is right now. They were a five-point
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: underdog against an FCS team. Although Montana State, I think,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: might be like the number one FCS team, though.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: They're like up there.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: They're one of the best FCS teams. So it's not
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: that bad that Nevada lost to them. But that is
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 4: an ugly loss for Nevada. I think I lean Nevada
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: in this one, even though it's a weird travel spot.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 4: It is their first road game. They've got to go
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 4: all the way to Tennessee for this, which is weird.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: But coming off losing to an FCS team just mentally
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: seems like it's kind of embarrassing. And Middle Tennessee almost
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 4: pulled off an upset still as a double-digit dog.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: So I kind of lean Nevada on this one. The
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: money doesn't agree.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: 67% of tickets, 89% of the cash on Middle Tennessee.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: And the line.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: Dropped from 6 to 3.5 with Nevada being the favorite there.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: But the odds makers are still telling you Nevada's a
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: better team. This Middle Tennessee team is ass, dude.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: Although, you know me. I mean, I play on ass
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: teams all the time. That's how you win, man. You've
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: got to play on ass teams. But in this case.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'd probably lay it with Nevada, especially
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: if you're getting more value on it now.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: Don't have a whole lot on that, though. Ohio at
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: South Alabama was a little bit interesting. South Alabama almost
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: pulled off the upset of Tulane last week. Like I said,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: I think they were about a nine-point dog. Is that
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: right in this game?
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: Something like that. I'm trying to remember. Yeah, nine and
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: a half. South Alabama almost pulled off the upset there.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: Now it is going to be their FBS opener here,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: but I think it's a bad spot for South Alabama.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: They almost pulled off the upset against Tulane. Now they
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: get a Mac team, Ohio here, whatever. And next up,
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: they got an SEC opponent, man, Kentucky.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: That's the biggest game on South Alabama's entire schedule. So
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: they might be looking ahead to that Kentucky game, man.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 4: So I like Ohio in this one against South Alabama. Ohio,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: they barely got by Jacksonville State last time. Jacksonville State covered,
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 4: but Ohio did win the game. 29-27, it was close.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: It was four overtimes, though, and that's kind of the problem.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 4: If you really want to take four overtime game, absolutely
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: insane that these teams only scored five and three points
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: combined in overtime.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: That's insane.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 4: Like four overtimes, you'd expect the teams to score like
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 4: 20 extra points each in overtime. And that's not what
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 4: happened here. Jacksonville State got away with the cover. Thing
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: about this is, though. I don't want to play on
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: a team coming off a four overtime game, man.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: Like you could be tired potentially after that, but the
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: spot still looks better for Ohio.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: To me um you know what I mean and.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: They're more battle tested than South Alabama Ohio played Nebraska
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 4: already and they hung with Nebraska for about a half
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: so Ohio's not that bad uh South Alabama is also
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 4: very public 90% of tickets 91% of the cash on
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: them uh the line looks like it is seven at
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 4: some shops here. It looks like you might be able
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: to find that key number seven. So if you, if
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: you want Ohio, I would say wait and get the
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: seven on this. The total is not that high in
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 4: the high forties. I still don't want to play them
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: coming off of an overtime game like that. Even though
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: I did with, um, Charlotte, it was last week, right? They, they,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: they were coming off a multiple overtime game. Um, when
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 4: I played them last week and they still got it
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: done for us, but whatever. But yeah, I still lean
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: Ohio in that one.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: What other games we got going on here that are
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 4: of note to Michigan state at number three, Notre.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: Dame on NBC.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 4: As we get into the later, well, not later games
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: at 7 30 PM, Eastern Notre Dame. They haven't done anything, uh,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 4: huge so far, but they really have an easy schedule, man.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: This is going to be their most difficult game so far.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: At the very least they beat Wisconsin on a neutral
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: and then they crushed rice last time up in Michigan state.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: Looks like they're kind of upstart man. Uh, at least, uh,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 4: They beat Toledo, not that impressively, but they crushed Eastern
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: Michigan last time.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: They're 2-0.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: They got Pat Fitzgerald there now. This will be one
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: of their biggest games on the schedule, going to Notre Dame.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: Maybe Michigan State can kind of hang around here.
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 4: Maybe it'll be more of a kind of defensive type
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: of game here in this one. Notre Dame is going
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: to be a huge favorite still, though. They're about a
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: 30-point favorite here. Notre Dame is one of the better teams.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: They're one of the top teams in the country. I
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: just don't think they're going to be that battle-tested. I mean,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: you know they're not.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: They have a really easy schedule.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 4: So once they get into the playoffs, assuming they do,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: which I think should happen, they won't really be battle-tested.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: So I might be looking to fade them once they
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: get to the playoffs. And it does look like the
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: money's agreeing with Michigan State plus the points here. 79%
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 54% of the cash on Notre Dame.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: The public....
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: They're all in pretty much on Notre Dame here right now.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: Michigan State's been kind of an ugly team in recent years.
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 4: The total's not that high in the low 50s. Taking
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 4: 30 points probably is the right move in that game
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: if you're really going to play the spread in that one.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: That would be my lean, Michigan State.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 4: All right, then we have the biggest game of the weekend,
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: the Lane-Kiffin battle, which I had to put in the
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: title here because I'm coming up with bad puns now. ABC,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 4: it might be game day. I think it probably is
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 4: because this is the huge game of the week. One
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: of only two ranked versus ranked matchups. Number 7, LSU.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: Number 8, Ole Miss at Ole Miss. It's the Lane
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 4: Kiffin battle. As we know, Lane Kiffin was with Ole
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: Miss the last couple of years. And then what did
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 4: he do? He left Ole Miss before the playoffs last year.
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: kind of left them in the lurch, I guess, if
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: you want to say, and went to LSU. So he
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: left Ole Miss to fend for themselves sort of in
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: the playoffs without him, and they elevated Golding to their
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: head coach, and he was the coach for Ole Miss
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 4: in the playoffs last year, and he's still their head
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: coach now this year. So now the question becomes, what's
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 4: going to win out in this game? Is it going
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 4: to be Ole Miss being angry and wanting to beat
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin because he left them?
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: And, you know.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: Ole Miss they're going to probably know some of Lane
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: Kiffin's coaching tendencies as well so that'll help Ole Miss
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: a little bit but then on the other hand isn't
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: Golding still running Lane Kiffin's system here that's that was
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 4: the whole deal right Lane Kiffin left but Golding knew
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: the system so he just kept it going at Ole
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: Miss so doesn't that mean Lane Kiffin's going to know
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: the Ole Miss system here and that might be the
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 4: determining factor here man if Lane Kiffin we've seen it
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: before right like when John Gruden left uh the Raiders
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 4: and was at Tampa Bay and they played the Raiders
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl and the Raiders were still calling
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: his plays.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: So he knew exactly what they were going to call.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: It's ridiculous. Is that going to happen here? I don't know.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: And Lane Kiffin, of course, they're doing some weird things here.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin is a weird guy. We all know he
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 4: likes to mack on all the ladies and whatever, the
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 4: college chicks, even though he's an older man at this point.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 4: But the other thing he did this week is he
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 4: was pulling games with the injury report that I think
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 4: would get you fined and maybe suspended if you did
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: it in the NFL he had Sam Levitt their quarterback
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 4: that they got in the transfer portal this year out
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: of Arizona State they had him listed as doubtful on
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: the injury report and the line never moved so even
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: though Lane Kipman was like yeah Levitt's doubtful LSU was
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 4: still a three-point favorite like I think it might have
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 4: ticked down to two and a half but the odds
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 4: makers are telling you they didn't even think that they
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 4: like basically the odds makers said Lane Kipman is lying
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: pretty much, and that's how you know that Levitt was
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: still going to start in this game, and it's come
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 4: out that, yeah, he is going to start this game.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: But we all already knew that. It was so stupid.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin lists him as doubtful just to play mind
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 4: games with Ole Miss, and the Ozmakers knew because they
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: never moved the line. It was always two and a
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 4: half or three, and if Levitt was out, LSU has
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 4: some inexperienced quarterback behind them, so the line would have
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 4: to move, like probably close to a pick-em if Levitt
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: wasn't going to play, but that never happened, so you
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: knew the guys that had the inside information knew that
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 4: Lane Kiffin was bluffing.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: It's just so ridiculous. So yes, I'm almost.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 4: Positive Leavitt is playing in this game. I think that
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: was already announced. I think the official injury report came
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 4: out and he wasn't on it anymore.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: Totally stupid. Uh, Now, what do we get in this game? Well,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: both teams are going to be motivated.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 4: LSU looks really good because they crushed Clemson, but Clemson
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 4: does not look good this year. And then LSU beat
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 4: Louisiana Tech, and Leavitt was not.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: Good in that game.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 4: I think he threw like three interceptions in that game,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 4: including the 100-yard pick six that I talked about. Leavitt's
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 4: got to clean up his act here, man. He's a
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 4: strong quarterback anyway, though. However, Ole Miss probably does have
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: the better QB. And Trinidad Chambliss was their QB in
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 4: the playoffs last year or whatever.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: He's pretty good. I think I'd rather have him than
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: Levis to me. Levit. Not Levit. Will Levis. Is he
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: playing in college again? No. Levit. Sam Levit.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 4: Now, is having the better quarterback for Ole Miss enough
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 4: to overcome on this?
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: Honestly, I don't know, man. And this is kind of
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: a rivalry. These teams play each other every year.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 4: Ole Miss won the game last year, which was at
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 4: Ole Miss, actually.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: So Ole Miss gets to host two. That's weird. Ole
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: Miss hosting two years in a row. I thought they
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: alternated home and road. Very weird.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: But yes, Ole Miss won the game 24-19 last year
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 4: at Ole Miss. LSU won the game in overtime the
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: year before that, 29-26, and I believe Ole Miss won
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 4: the game the year before that, yes. That really high-scoring
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: game back at Ole Miss in 2023. Ole Miss won
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 4: that game 55-49. I remember that game.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: It was crazy.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 4: Those games don't have much bearing on this one here, though,
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: although LSU, I guess, has revenge, I guess, here because
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: of last year, because they lost, but Lane Kiffin won
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: that game last year, though, because he was the coach
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 4: for Ole Miss in that game last year. So, LSU
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: lost to Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss, last year. It's totally ridiculous, man.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 4: Will Lane Kiffin have revenge against himself in this game?
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 4: The old self-revenge spot. I don't know what to do
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 4: with this game, man. I mean, maybe an under in
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 4: this game. I mean, the offense has looked good so far,
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 4: but you've got to think this is going to be a... pound,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 4: you know, pounded out type of game.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 4: Like a defensive battle more so that these teams are
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: just going to really focus.
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: And step it up. And the last, I think it
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: was the last two games that I shared, right?
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: Both, I think, did go under this total here. The
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 4: last two times these teams played. Now, Ole Miss is,
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 4: they're the more battle-tested team, actually, Ole Miss, because they
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 4: played Louisville. In week one, and Louisville is better than
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 4: Clemson right now. So Ole Miss has been more battle-tested.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 4: They beat Charlotte last week and didn't cover. That was
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 4: a win for us. We faded both these teams on
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 4: the show last week, and we got wins with both games.
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: What do we do with this game, man? Seriously, I
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: have no clue.
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 4: I've heard professional opinions, mostly on the Ole Miss side,
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: but I kind of disagree, and the money is.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: somewhat disagreeing as well 67% of tickets 79% of.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: The cash on LSU and yes I know Ole Miss
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 4: is more battle tested and they haven't quite looked as
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 4: good as LSU and Ole Miss is one of those
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: home dogs here in a night game where the crowd's
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: going to be completely crazy you know they want to
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 4: stick it to Lane Kiffin but I don't know something
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 4: about this the money's coming in on LSU for now
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: 67% of tickets 79% of the cash on them they're
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: about a three-point favorite oz maker's telling you all let's
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: use the better team and you know they're ranked better
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 4: but you know to me it seems like the public
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 4: would actually kind of come in on the underdog in
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: a ranked matchup like this the public does kind of
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 4: have a tendency to do that a lot of the
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: time and they see oh these two teams are like
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 4: very even they're almost evenly ranked so let me take
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: the points like that's kind of what their mentality tends
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 4: to be and i tend to kind.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: Of look towards favorites in a.
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 4: Even though I'm more of an underdog type of guy,
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 4: as we know, but that's... Usually I'm playing really ugly dogs,
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 4: not in these high-profile games like this. In these games,
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 4: I tend to actually lean more towards favorites a lot
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 4: of the time. Yeah, the money looks like it's slightly
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 4: indicating towards the under. I mean, maybe that is a
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: way to play this game. I think I lean LSU, though.
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Something about this. I think Lane Kiffin.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 4: knowing the Ole Miss system kind of being able to
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: know what their tendencies are that might be the determining
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: factor here so yeah that's what I got with that
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 4: one uh number 11 BYU at Colorado State on CBS
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: BYU pretty highly ranked here man and this is an
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 4: old mountain west matchup that's no longer a mountain west
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: matchup it's byu's in the big 12 colorado state are
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: they in the pack 12 now yeah they are so
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 4: neither team is in the mountain west now this feels
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: like a mountain west matchup BYU got the win against
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: Arizona last week, although they really shouldn't have covered, I
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: wouldn't say. I mean, it was a close game, and
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 4: then BYU got another touchdown right near the end of
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: the game. But it was a good win for BYU.
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 4: Now they got their first road game, though, and they're
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 4: in a conference sandwich, at least. That was a conference
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: game against Arizona, and they do have TCU next. So
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: BYU may kind of overlook Colorado State here, and maybe
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 4: Colorado State feels like kind of the little brother of
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 4: the two from the Mountain West, because Being in this
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: new Pac-12 is not as.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: High profile, I guess I would say, as being in
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: the big... The Big 12 is still considered to be
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: the better conference, the bigger conference, even though I don't
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: think it's.
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 4: A particularly good conference at this point. Colorado State is
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: 2-0 as well, but they're not battle-tested. They beat Wyoming,
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 4: which I thought Wyoming was going to win that game
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 4: as a small underdog, and that didn't happen. Colorado State
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 4: beat them, and then... destroyed Southern Utah last time. And
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 4: I think Southern Utah is not that bad for an
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 4: FCS team.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: So that's pretty impressive.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 4: This is going to be the biggest game on Colorado
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 4: State's schedule, man, whereas BYU does have bigger games in
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: the future, in the Big 12, especially against Utah and
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 4: the Holy War and stuff like that. So I think
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 4: this game does mean a little bit more to Colorado State.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 4: It's the first road game for BYU, so it's a
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 4: little bit weird. I'll link Colorado State here, and the
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: money is strongly agreeing. 75% of tickets on BYU, 82%
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Colorado State. And the line has
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: dropped from 20.5 down into the 17.5, 18 range. Hasn't
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: really gone through any key number yet, though, because it
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 4: wasn't at 21.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: 20 isn't really that key.
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 4: So, yeah, if you like it, you'll get Colorado State
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 4: plus 17.5. I think that would be my lean in
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 4: that one. New Mexico at number 24, Oklahoma on ESPN2.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 4: Oklahoma has dropped quite a bit in the rankings. A
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: lot of ranking overreactions there. Potentially, man, because Oklahoma lost
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 4: that game to Michigan. It was a tough game.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: It was a tough loss. It was a big game
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: in the big house, even though Oklahoma was a favorite.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 4: And a lot of times when a favorite loses, I
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: look for them to bounce back. Maybe not in that case,
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: because that was a tough game, man.
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: Michigan, a good team.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: And Oklahoma up next, they have a huge game against Georgia.
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 4: And then I believe they have a bye, it looks like.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 4: And then they have Texas after that. So they have two,
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 4: that's the Red River rivalry against Texas. They have two
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 4: big games upcoming after this New Mexico game. Oklahoma might
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: overlook this game a bit, man. So I do lean
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 4: New Mexico here. It does look a little bit sandwichy
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 4: for Oklahoma here. New Mexico has been pretty solid so far.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: They're just not battle-tested at all. They beat Central Michigan,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: and then they beat FCS Mercyhurst, but they absolutely pounded them.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 4: And I guess, is this really what their coach looks like,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: Jason Eck? Dude, he looks like an Elvis impersonator. He's
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 4: wearing like a bowling shirt.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: He's fat. He's got the slicked back hair, sideburns, sunglasses.
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: I kind of like that, man.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: He looks like he'd be in, I don't know, like
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 4: some sort of crime movie or an Elvis impersonator or both.
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 4: I guess he's the guy. He's the coach at New Mexico.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 4: And you know I was high on New Mexico coming
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: into this season. I thought they would compete for the
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 4: Mountain West.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: We'll see if they do.
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 4: But they're bringing back a lot of returning players here,
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 4: a lot of returning production.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: So is Oklahoma this year, though. And I was high
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: on Oklahoma this year, too. But I think if we're
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: going to play this game, I would take the points
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: with New Mexico. And it's a low total. The total
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: is 45 here. And you're getting three touchdowns with New
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: Mexico here. You're getting 21.5, basically, here. Obviously, try to
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: find the best number.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 4: I would try to find 21.5 here on this, if
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 4: you can, or at least 21.5. Make sure you get
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 4: at least three touchdowns here with this one if you
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: do it. I like this one more than a lot
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 4: of the other ones I've talked about here. 65% of tickets,
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: 85% of the cash on New Mexico.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: I agree with that. I think it is a bit
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: of a sandwich for Oklahoma, so that's what I would
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: say about that game.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 4: Justin, what's up, man? I mentioned you when I talked
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: about that game. I just talked about it not that
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 4: long ago. Yes, I shouted you out. So, yes, Justin,
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 4: like I.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: Said, he is working the CBS Sports game, Missouri State-Marshall.
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: Unfortunately for you, I did lean Marshall in that game,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 4: but just my lean doesn't mean a whole lot.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: I don't have a strong opinion on that game, though,
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: so I don't know.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 4: It seemed like the situational setup was more beneficial to
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: Marshall by a little bit.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 2: I think the market didn't agree with that one, though,
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. We will see.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 4: Missouri State does not have a good quarterback. Is that
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: what you're saying, but they have a good defense?
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: But we'll see.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 4: We'll see what they can do in their conference. Although
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I'm expecting that much.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: All right. West Virginia versus Virginia.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 4: Number 25, Virginia on the ACC Network.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: This is a neutral site game, by the way. It's
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: not in London, at least. This is in Charlotte, North Carolina.
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 2: Not Charlottesville, Virginia here. So it's not a Virginia home game.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: It is.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: I think this is a renewed rivalry, too. I think
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: West Virginia-Virginia used to be a rivalry, and I think
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: West Virginia kind of considers themselves to be like the
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: bastard cousin because West Virginia, as a state, broke off
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: from Virginia.
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 4: So, maybe a little bit of a bigger game for
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: West Virginia. Virginia's the ranked team, and they're the team
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: that's getting the hype here. What have they really done, though?
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, they beat NC State, and they... did
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 4: a lot better than I thought they would in that game.
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: Then they beat Norfolk state FCS little brother in the
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 4: state of Virginia. I'm not sold on what Virginia has
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 4: done so far. Um, Oh God, this is the Duke's
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: Mayo classic. It's not the Duke's Mayo bowl though. Wait, just, um, yeah,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 4: it looks like I picked Virginia to cover. I think
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 4: I'm going to change that. Um, in my pick them
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 4: pool here.
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: Um, Anyway, I'll do it later. I don't know. It
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: didn't take.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 4: Anyway, yeah, because I do lean West Virginia in this game,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure. Anyway, yeah, like I just blindly make
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 4: the picks and set them in case I forget.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: But, yeah, you like Marshall as well. No, that's all right.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: We both like Marshall in that game. Then, oh, boy.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: Anyway, Duke's Mayo, what I was going to say is,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 4: is the winning coach in this game going to get
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: a mayo bath, like in the Mayo Bowl, or is
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 4: that just the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: That does that? For these coaches' sake, hopefully it doesn't happen.
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 2: But for our sake, we can just talk about how
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: ridiculous football has gotten and all these gimmicks with the
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: Pop-Tart Bowl and whatever, the Mayo Bowl. I don't know.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: We'll see.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to be a mayo bath, though.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: I think that's only in the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: But whatever.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 4: And I think the Dukes-Mayo Bowl is in the same stadium.
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 4: Dukes must be out of Charlotte, North Carolina, man.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 4: For West Virginia, they're 2-0 as well, but they look
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: kind of bad against Coastal. Though, like I said, I
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 4: dug into that box score, and West Virginia was ahead
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 4: by more than what the final was. I think they
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: kind of took their foot off the gas. Coastal closed
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 4: the gap a little.
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: Bit at the end there. And then West Virginia beat
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: UT Martin. I mean, they took care of business there.
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 4: So Virginia has faced a more difficult schedule just because
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 4: they face NC State. But I think I like West
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 4: Virginia here, man. I think West Virginia is a little
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 4: bit under the radar. I'm not sold on Virginia. 64%
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 77% of the cash on West Virginia. So
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 4: the money is kind of agreeing with that. They're a 10.5
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 4: point dog. West Virginia is in a total of 53.5 here.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean that way as well. I heard
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 4: some professionals give out an opinion leaning in that direction
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 4: as well. Unless, yeah, something kind of crazy changes or whatever. Yeah,
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: I think West Virginia is a little bit under the
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 4: radar here right now, man, with Rich Rod there.
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: Is it his second year or his third year? Usually
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: the third year.
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: Is when that team takes a real step up. We
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 4: just don't know what these teams are yet. But I
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 4: think a lot of it is perception from last year, though, right?
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 2: Like Virginia was.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 4: a lot better than people thought they would be last year.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 4: West Virginia hasn't been that good for a while, so
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 4: I think maybe this is kind of a perception still
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 4: lingering from last year. Virginia has a new quarterback this year.
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 4: They have Pribula from Missouri, and I think the jury's
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: kind of still out on him. Colorado at Northwestern on
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: Fox at 730. This game, I don't know, man. I mean,
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 4: it's kind of a weird travel spot for Colorado. Northwestern,
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 4: I think, hasn't played since week one. So yeah, Northwestern
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 4: played on the 5th, and they haven't played since then.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 4: They won against South Dakota State. So does that mean
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 4: their momentum is going to be stopped by having the bye?
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: Maybe. They might not pay attention to Colorado here, man.
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 4: They do have a huge game on deck on Friday.
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 4: They have to go to Indiana for a Fox Friday
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 4: night game.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: Northwestern does. So that is a big game.
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 4: They might look ahead to that, and maybe the time
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: off won't help them, even though they do have a
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 4: rest edge here. They went into that rest on a
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 4: good note, having won, so Colorado might set up a
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: little bit better here. They've won both of their games
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 4: so far, and they upset Georgia Tech, who doesn't really
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 4: look that good this year.
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 2: Then they beat Weber State, whatever. It's an FCS team.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 2: Now Colorado going to Northwestern here.
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 4: It is a weird travel spot, though, for sure, for
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 4: Colorado to have to go to the chicago area which
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 4: they're not usually used to although they did already travel
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: to georgia tech this year so they are at least
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 4: kind of used to these spots where they're traveling east
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: here i kind of lean colorado here the money doesn't
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 4: agree with me on this one though 69 of tickets,
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 4: 54% of the cash on them. So Colorado is a
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 4: dreaded public underdog in this one. I've leaned on a
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 4: couple of those today.
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I love that.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: None of them are going to be anywhere near my card, though.
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 4: Northwestern's a three-and-a-half-point favorite here. It's a low total in
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: the 40s here. I think the spot is worse for Northwestern, man,
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: so I kind of like Colorado here.
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. Sometimes the market.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 4: Stuff is mostly numbers guys betting it and not situational guys.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: So we will see. But 69% of tickets, 54% of
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 2: the cash are in Colorado.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 4: So they're a dreaded public dog in that one. Fox
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 4: Sports 1 has Virginia Tech at Maryland. Virginia Tech, I mean,
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 4: they're getting hyped because they have James Franklin there now, whatever,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: but they've only beaten VMI and Old Dominion, so they've
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: beaten two little brothers in the state of Virginia.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: Now they have their first true road game.
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 4: And it's going to Maryland here.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: It's their first big conference game as well.
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 4: So it might be difficult for them because they're not
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 4: really totally battle-tested yet.
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 2: Kind of a weird spot.
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, traveling to Maryland's not a huge distance or anything, obviously,
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 4: but I don't think they usually have to play Maryland,
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 4: so it might be a little bit of an unfamiliar
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 4: stadium for them. Maryland did win at UConn by margin
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 4: last week. I did lean towards Maryland, laying the points.
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: It just seemed... Like UConn was still riding the perception
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 2: from the previous year, but UConn does not have Fagnano anymore,
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: a quarterback. So Maryland went in and beat them. Maryland
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: has not really done anything of note so far, beating
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: Hampton and UConn.
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 4: But now this will be their FBS home game here,
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 4: home opener here at night. I kind of like Maryland
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 4: in this one. Not a strong opinion, but 72% of tickets,
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 4: 68% of the cash on Virginia Tech. So Virginia Tech
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 4: is a public side. It looks way too easy to
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 4: play them. They're minus three here. You know the public,
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 4: based on what they've seen out of these teams in
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 4: recent years, they're going to play the Virginia Tech side here.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: Or basically the fact that Maryland has been pretty bad
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 4: for a while, more so than anything else.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: But yeah, public is on Virginia Tech. It looks like
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 2: less than the money is. I think I agree. I
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 2: would take the points with Maryland in that one if
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 2: I was going to play it. All right.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: Next up, we have another one of my plays. This
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 4: is maybe even uglier than the other one in a way.
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: But it's a spot, man. I think we have to
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 4: do it. This is a smaller underdog than the second
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 4: one I gave up. But we're on both UT acronym
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 4: schools here. UTEP and UTSA.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: Plays on both of them here. This one's UTSA plus 30.5.
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: Maybe you can wait and.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 4: Find a 31 because 31 is a little bit key
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 4: in football. But I'd still do it at 30.5. But
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 4: you might find a 31 somewhere. So maybe I'll look
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: and update it if I find one. We're fading Texas here, though.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: That's kind of the main thing here. We know what
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 4: they did last week. Texas became completely legitimate in everybody's
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 4: eyes because they finally beat Ohio State, which they hadn't
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 4: been able to do the last two times, like in
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 4: the playoffs two years ago. And then last year, the
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 4: opening game of the regular season, Texas lost both of
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 4: them to Ohio State. And we lost on the show
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 4: with both of them, too. Huge win for Texas. They
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 4: finally got the revenge. They beat the number one team.
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: They did it at home. And not only that, but
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 2: they had to make a huge second half comeback to
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: do it.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 4: After they were down 23-0, this has to be a
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: flat spot for Texas after that, man. They're going to
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: be riding really high off of.
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: That win over Ohio State. And what do they have next? Oh, yeah.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 4: They've got to start SEC play against back-to-back ranked teams
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 4: in Tennessee and then the Red River rivalry against Oklahoma
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 4: after a bye, though. But, yeah, this is a sandwich spot, man,
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 4: between Ohio State and Tennessee next week. Horrible spot for
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 4: Texas here. UTSA is a little brother in the state
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: of Texas. So this is going to be one of
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 4: the biggest games on their schedule. This is the biggest
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 4: game on their schedule. This is UTSA's Super Bowl. And
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 4: I know I talked about UTSA beat Texas State, but
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 4: Texas also beat Texas State. So people are going to
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 4: look at that and say, oh yeah, Texas beat Texas
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 4: State by 52 points. UTSA only beat them by five.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 4: So what does that mean, right? It means Texas is...
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 4: 40 whatever points better right so of course texas uh
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 4: because they beat uh texas state the common opponent by
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: so much more of course texas should cover a 30
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 4: and a half right so we get that you know
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 4: transitive property handicapping coming into play here as well so
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 4: i like that too because that's not the way that
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 4: things work this is utsa super well man like i
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 4: said the only thing that really worries me is that
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 4: Texas state, like I already pointed out when I talked
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 4: about them earlier in the show, Texas state won this
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 4: game in the yardage battle, man, against UTSA. UTSA won
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 4: the game because Texas state can't stop committing turnovers.
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: That's what happened.
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: Although UTSA committed a lot of penalties, but both teams did.
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: That would be my only concern with this is that UTSA,
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 4: it is a second straight road game, but they're staying
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 4: in the state of Texas at least. And it's, I
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: don't think it's that far from San Marcos to Austin
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 4: or whatever, but whatever.
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 2: Um, Anyway, yeah, I still like it, man.
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: This is a fate of Texas for the most part,
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: but you are getting a probably motivated UTSA team. And
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: UTSA is not that bad, really. They've had a decent
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 4: program the last few years. They've been a bowl team,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 4: I think, the majority of those years. So they're not
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 4: like a total pushover here, and you're getting them at
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: a huge price here. 87% of tickets, 79% of the
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 4: cash on Texas. So yes, Texas is a public side
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 4: with less of the money on them. So yes, the
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 4: market agrees with this. Mostly 30, 30 and a half
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: out there.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: So maybe I'm wrong.
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 4: Maybe you won't find a 31, but that's okay. Still
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 4: going to do it at 30 and a half.
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: 58 and a half is the total. So this isn't a,
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: it's not a game with a crazy low total. It's
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 2: not like the other two games I gave out with
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: the lower totals than this, but still, I think it's
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: the right play to make. Horrible spot for Texas.
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 4: Sandwich spot so let's do it we'll take UTSA in
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: that one all right Arkansas State TCU on ESPNU TCU
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: after that opening loss in Dublin in North Carolina they
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 4: beat Grambling now I don't know when TCU's bye I
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 4: assume was after the Dublin game right yes it was
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 4: so they played last week and they beat Grambling to
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 4: get back on track So that'll give TCU some momentum,
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 4: at least. They do start conference play next against UCF,
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 4: so I don't know if that's a huge look ahead
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 4: or not, though. This will be a big game for
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 4: Arkansas State, though. It's the biggest game on their schedule, right? Like,
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: they get to play a Big 12 team here.
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: So they'll step it up, their effort to play TCU.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 4: They probably should have covered for us against Memphis. So
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 4: Arkansas State is... I would say they're actually more battle-tested
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 4: than TCU is because TCU, the best team they played
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: was North Carolina. I think Memphis is better than North Carolina. So, yeah,
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: I think Arkansas State's actually more battle-tested. And, yeah, they
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 4: probably should have covered at least for us against Memphis.
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 2: They didn't. But then Arkansas State did get their first.
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: Win against West Georgia, so they have some momentum behind
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 4: them now.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: I think I'll lean Arkansas State here. Not a strong opinion,
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: but you know, I always think these, the big boys
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: are like always overvalued in matchups like this. And TCU
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: is definitely public, 83% of tickets, 75% of the cash
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 2: coming back the other way on Arkansas State though. And
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 2: you'll get them, it was 20 and a half.
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 4: I don't think it was ever 21 though, but you'll
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 4: still get them at about 19 and a half here.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 4: So not losing too much on the number there at all.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 4: So I think I lean Arkansas State, but that is
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 4: not a strong opinion for me.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 2: Meaty, what's up, man? Thanks for hanging out. All right.
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 2: Getting close to the end of the show here. JMU
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: and San Diego State on CW, man.
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 4: This is kind of an interesting game. These teams have
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 4: both been pretty good over the last few years. Although
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 4: James Madison, they're such a good program. Their coach keeps
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 4: getting hired at bigger schools. Kurt Cignetti and then Chesney,
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 4: I think was his name. So now Cignetti is at Indiana.
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 4: Chesney is at UCLA.
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 4: San Diego State, speaking of UCLA, San Diego State just
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 4: lost to UCLA. That was a big game for San
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 4: Diego State, but they didn't play that well in the game.
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 4: They took that loss. They're staying in California, though, and
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 4: I think that's really kind of the crux of this.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 4: You know, I talk about it when these East Coast
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 4: teams go out West. I don't think it's a good
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: spot for them. And JMU looks way too good. They
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 4: put up 87 points against Wagner last week.
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 2: Wagner. But it's Wagner, man. I mean, they're an FCS team.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're that good. People will be impressed
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: seeing James Madison do that. And James Madison beat us
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 4: by a half point in the first week against Liberty.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 4: I'm not happy about that, but still, like I said,
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 4: James Madison's dealing with another new coach this year, so while, yeah,
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 4: their program's good and it's been built up, but you
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 4: gotta think they're gonna take a step back this year
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 4: from being that playoff team that they were last year,
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 4: and now an East Coast team has to go all
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 4: the way out West and play a 10 p.m.
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: Game, you know I think that's bad.
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 4: You have to try to adjust your biological clock to
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 4: playing a late-night game.
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 2: It's going to end at like 1 a.m.
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 4: Your time, basically. That's not good. So I think that's
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 4: a pretty big disadvantage for JMU here.
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 2: And San Diego State's more battle-tested because they played UCLA already.
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 2: They're staying in the Pacific time zone, so the travel
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: spot is a lot better for San Diego State. So
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 2: I got to lean San Diego State in this one.
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in on James Madison. I don't know why.
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: I don't understand it.
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 4: 67% of tickets, 92% of the cash on them. You'd
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 4: think the public would be on James Madison because it's
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 4: a pick-the-winner price. San Diego State's about a 1.5-point favorite here.
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: That's a low total, by the way. It's expected to
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 2: be kind of a defensive battle total in the mid-40s. But, yeah,
• 1:58:09
  Speaker 2: I like San Diego State. State to get it done, man.
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: Don't like the spot for JMU.
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 4: To me, I think the public's going to be on
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 4: them because, oh, it's a 2-0 JMU.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: Team against a 1-1 San Diego State team.
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 4: Once we get a few weeks in, I might be
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 4: able to find some of those plays where the records
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 4: are extremely misleading based on the Strength of schedule and whatever.
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 4: We'll see if we can find some of those within
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 4: the next couple weeks.
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: Usually around week four.
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 4: You can find some... Week four or five, you can
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 4: find some nice spots like that.
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 2: So we'll see.
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I like San Diego State in that one.
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 4: To me, it doesn't seem like the public's going to
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 4: want them. I'm kind of surprised the money's on JMU
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 4: in that one, though.
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 2: And San Diego State just... It's interesting because San Diego
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 2: State did just lose to Chesney's new team. Yeah, UCLA.
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: So UCLA, I believe that's right, has James Madison. James
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 2: Madison's coach.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 4: From last year is at UCLA now. So San Diego
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 4: State's going to face a similar team two games in
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 4: a row. But I think that's an advantage to San
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 4: Diego State, actually, because if those teams have similar plays
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 4: that they run and whatever, well, San Diego State just
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 4: saw UCLA doing it under the coach that JMU had
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 4: last year. And I know they have a new coach
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 4: this year, but if their system is anything like it
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 4: was last year, then San Diego State should be a
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 4: little bit more familiar with it now after that.
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 2: All right. TNT at 10.30 p.m. Northern Illinois and Arizona.
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to say about this one.
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 4: Arizona had kind of a close game against BYU last week.
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 2: That was a big game for them, I guess. I mean,
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: it was.
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 4: They were in elevation. It was a big 12 game.
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 4: Now they're coming off of that. This will be their
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 4: FBS home opener. But they do have bigger games on deck.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 4: They play Pac-12, Washington State next, and then they start
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 4: conference play after that. At the very least, maybe they're
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 4: a little bit hungover coming off that pretty big BYU game,
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 4: so I don't really love Arizona here. Northern Illinois, I mean,
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 4: weird that they're in the Mountain West this year, but
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 4: they've looked bad so far, man. They got killed by Iowa.
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 2: That was expected.
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 4: Then they lost to Illinois State, an FCS team, which
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 4: doesn't look good, but Northern Illinois is bad enough that
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 4: Illinois State was actually a favorite against them, even though.
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 2: Illinois State is.
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 4: little brother to them I'm pretty sure Illinois State was
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 4: actually the favorite in that game so Northern Illinois is
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 4: coming off of that it seems like an ugly boss
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 4: whereas Arizona looked pretty good and they're lost to BYU
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 4: could be a little bit more hungover so I would
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 4: lean towards Northern Illinois here it is a weird spot
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 4: for them that's the other thing though like Northern Illinois
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 4: they're not used to playing in Arizona though the money's
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 4: coming in on Arizona in this one 81% of tickets
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 4: 93% of the cash.
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: On them.
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 4: But they dropped from a 35.5 to a 33.5, so
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 4: you did lose that key number of 35 with Arizona there,
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 4: if you care about that sort of thing, which I
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 4: would a little bit. But once you get into the high,
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 4: high numbers like this, it doesn't matter as much. Plus,
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 4: it's a low total of 50. So, yeah, I think
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 4: the move is to lean more towards northern Illinois there.
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 4: All right, plus the points, obviously. North Dakota State, Sacramento
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 4: State on ESPN, 10.30 p.m. This is interesting because these
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 4: are the two teams that are both new to the
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 4: FBS here. So they both came up from FCS this year.
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 4: North Dakota State is definitely the better of these two
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 4: teams significantly. North Dakota State was really good in the FCS,
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 4: and they're off to a good FBS start as they
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 4: won all three games so far. And I thought they
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 4: would be up against it at Air Force. And they
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 4: still won that game. It was somewhat close, but they
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 4: won it anyway in high elevations.
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 2: That's pretty impressive. North Dakota State was able to win that,
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: although now they have to go to an unfamiliar venue
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 2: here to the Pacific time zone and play Sacramento State.
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 2: You know, I think North Dakota State should win, but
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: maybe they won't cover here in this one. It's interesting because, yeah,
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 2: both of these teams are new to the FBS, but
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 2: North Dakota State... came up because they were so good
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 2: in FCS, whereas Sacramento State really wasn't. It was just
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 2: kind of a conference realignment type of thing that caused
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 2: Sacramento State to move to the MAAC, which makes no
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: sense that they have to play in... you know, the.
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 4: Midwest, basically, when they're literally from Sacramento, California.
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 2: It makes no sense.
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 4: This game will be in Sacramento, California here. It's a
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 4: weird venue for North Dakota State, unfamiliar venue. Sacramento State
• 2:02:29
  Speaker 4: has not been impressive so far, though. We faded them
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 4: in week one. We got the win with them, and
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 4: they should have lost worse than they did. They did
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 4: get killed by Fresno last time out. Their only win
• 2:02:40
  Speaker 4: is against Mississippi Valley State, who is a lesser team here,
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 4: an FCS team.
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: I think I would probably still.
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 4: Lean Sacramento State plus all these points, though. North Dakota
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 4: State looks like they are kind of getting the money.
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 4: 84% of tickets, 94% of the cash on them. Minus 27, 27.5 here.
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 2: Low total, though. 50.5, fairly low.
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 4: I'd probably lean towards taking the points, but North Dakota
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 4: State is definitely the better team there. But you're asking
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 4: them to cover a huge number in kind of a
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 4: weird spot.
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 4: I think I'm going to talk about two remaining games here,
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 4: and this next one will be my final play of
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 4: the Big Ten Network. Whoops, that's not what I wanted
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 4: to do. I'm just going to play the intro again
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 4: in the middle of the show. I know people like
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 4: the song, though. I told you I had one favorite,
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 4: and yeah, we're laying 14 points with UCLA here against Purdue.
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 4: I got some reasons for it. Mostly, I think it's
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 4: a bad spot for Purdue. So I say we're going
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 4: to do it. UCLA, I think they should be on
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 4: the rise here with Chesney there. Now, like I said,
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 4: with what he did with James Madison, whatever, UCLA should
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 4: be better at least. Although, yes, they're implementing a new
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 4: system here. But Purdue is Purdue, man. I mean, they're
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 4: not very good at the very least. But this spot
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 4: is not good for Purdue. Purdue's coming off a multiple
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 4: overtime game against Wake Forest, a two-overtime game.
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 2: Purdue, I liked them to cover, and they did, barely.
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 4: But coming off a big overtime game like that, I
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 4: know it wasn't a huge game against Wake Forest, but still.
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 4: It was a game where both teams battled, man.
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 2: It was a tough game.
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 4: Purdue took the loss, and they were the underdog of
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 4: the game. It went multiple overtimes, and now Purdue has
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 4: to go all the way to the Pacific Coast for
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 4: an 11 p.m. game to a venue that they're not
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 4: that familiar with.
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 2: And it's tough. These Big Ten teams.
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 4: I know this is a Big Ten matchup here, a
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 4: conference game, but... These Big Ten teams, they tend to
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 4: struggle with this travel, but I think especially the East
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 4: teams going, like Penn State lost here last year, man,
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 4: at UCLA, and I should have put that on my card.
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 2: I was mad.
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 4: I liked UCLA to cover in that one. Didn't really
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 4: think they would win outright, but they did, and that
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 4: one just missed the cut for me. I think it
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 4: was in my pick five, excuse me, pick seven entry
• 2:04:58
  Speaker 4: at least, or pick six, whatever it was last year,
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 4: but whatever. I think it's going to be difficult for
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 4: a team like Purdue to go all the way out
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 4: west and have to play an 11 p.m. game, which
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 4: is going to wind up ending at like 1 or
• 2:05:10
  Speaker 4: 2 a.m. based on their biological clock. That's not good
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 4: for them. And it gets even worse because who does
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 4: Purdue play next after they play UCLA? Oh, yeah, they
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 4: play Notre Dame next, even though this is a conference game,
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 4: so they should theoretically focus on this against UCLA. Notre
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 4: Dame is a massive game for Purdue because they're in-state rivals.
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 4: It's a huge rivalry game. So I think this is
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 4: a bad spot for Purdue, man. And I like UCLA here.
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 4: UCLA's staying on the Pacific Coast. They just beat San
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 4: Diego State, whatever. They've beaten Cal and San Diego State.
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 4: At least they're somewhat battle-tested here. They've played some decent
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 4: teams here. We know UCLA is the better team. We
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 4: do have to lay two touchdowns with this, but it's
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 4: going to be the move. It's about the travel spot.
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 4: It's about the lack of rest for Purdue as well.
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 4: It's about Purdue possibly having a look ahead as well.
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 4: The money agrees with this. Purdue is a public underdog here, man,
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 4: so I am giving you an anti-public favorite on the
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 4: card here. You know I like that because the– The
• 2:06:11
  Speaker 4: oddsmakers are telling you UCLA should win this game by
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 4: a lot, and the public is not even wanting it.
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 4: 84% of tickets on Purdue, 60% of the cash. So
• 2:06:21
  Speaker 4: the public is taking Purdue here. I believe Purdue, yeah,
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 4: Purdue's 1-1, UCLA's 2-0, but I guess the public just
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 4: doesn't buy UCLA to the extent that they want to
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 4: lay points like that. I think the public doesn't even
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 4: know that UCLA has James Madison's coach from last year now, so...
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 4: I expect a turnaround, maybe not a Cignetti-level turnaround for UCLA,
• 2:06:42
  Speaker 4: but yeah, they should be a lot better this year
• 2:06:44
  Speaker 4: at the very least. The total is not too low here, 53,
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 4: so that'll help us cover here. Definitely an anti-public favorite here.
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 4: 84% of tickets, 60% of the cash on Purdue, like
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 4: I said.
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 2: We're on it.
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 4: We're going to lay the points with UCLA. That's my
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 4: final play of the show. And then I will talk
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 4: about this last game on the schedule here. Fresno and
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 4: San Jose State on Fox Sports 1. a California battle here.
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 4: San Jose's played three games because they played in week
• 2:07:13
  Speaker 4: zero against USC. They weren't as good as it looked
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 4: on the scoreboard because like I said, USC, Lincoln Riley
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 4: is taking his foot off the gas at the end
• 2:07:20
  Speaker 4: of these games.
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: So San Jose State.
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 4: Was getting blown out and they scored some cosmetic scores
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 4: at the end of that game. But since then, they
• 2:07:28
  Speaker 4: beat Eastern Michigan, which kind of impressed me because I
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 4: thought it was kind of a weird spot for them.
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 4: And they beat Cal Poly last time, but it was
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 4: not an impressive win against Cal Poly.
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 2: A little brother to them.
• 2:07:39
  Speaker 4: And San Jose State was a 21 and a half
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 4: point favorite and they only won the game by 10.
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 4: Although if you look at the box score, San Jose
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 4: State dominated the yardage. So really, I don't know how
• 2:07:50
  Speaker 4: they didn't win this game by more, to be honest.
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 4: So this game was not what it looked like. It
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 4: was a scare for San Jose State. It was a
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 4: three-point game late in the game. So I like San
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 4: Jose State in this game here. Coming off of a
• 2:08:02
  Speaker 4: game like this, you know, like I say, when a
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 4: team is coming off a big scare like that as
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 4: a big underdog, I like to look towards that team
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 4: in the next game. And they put up a lot
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 4: of yards in this game, man, and they should have
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 4: won the game by.
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 2: More than what the scoreboard... had on it.
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it's a little bit of a misleading result there.
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 4: Fresno also played USC, by the way, they lost 39
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 4: and nothing.
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 2: So yeah, San Jose state does look better than Fresno.
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 2: If people look at, Oh, both of these teams played USC. Um, Yeah,
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: San Jose State's performance against USC was more impressive, but
• 2:08:37
  Speaker 2: it was because USC took their foot off the gas.
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 2: So that worries me a little bit about wanting San
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 2: Jose State here because if the betters look at those
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 2: two games, they're going to think San Jose State is
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 2: the better team, and they're not. Fresno is favored here,
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 2: but I still like San Jose State as a side
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 2: because they're coming off of that bad performance. Whereas Fresno, yeah,
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 2: they beat Sacramento State last time out, whatever. Fresno's not
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 2: done anything to impress me so far.
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 4: And against Lincoln Riley, who's taken his foot off the gas,
• 2:09:07
  Speaker 4: and Fresno still couldn't score against them. And now you're
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 4: asking Fresno to lay 6.5 on the road here with
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 4: a fairly low total of 49.5? Yeah, I don't think so.
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 4: But San Jose State looks like they're a public underdog, though.
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 4: 75% of tickets, 59% of the cash. It's like almost
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 4: every public underdog I actually... have a lean towards all
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 4: of them except for Purdue this weekend. Of course, the
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 4: one that I'm actually playing, one of the games that
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 4: I'm actually playing.
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 2: Is that one though.
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 4: So I do like that, that I am at least
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 4: fading that public underdog there with an actual play. But yeah,
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 4: I think San Jose State might be the right way
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 4: to look in this one. 75% of tickets, only 59%
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them though. And you missed out
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 4: on the seven and a half. So you don't get
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 4: this key number anymore. I don't think you're going to
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 4: get it back either because it looks like the public
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 4: is actually on the San Jose State side. The public
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 4: might use this as kind of the bailout. Well, they're
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 4: probably going to use Purdue-UCLA as the bailout. So I
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 4: like that even more. So that's basically the public. If
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 4: they lose money during the day, they use one of
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 4: the late games to try to bet and bail themselves out.
• 2:10:13
  Speaker 4: And it might be this Purdue-UCLA one because that's the
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 4: biggest game in this very, very late schedule here as
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 4: far as who's playing in it.
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 2: So Yeah, that's what we got going on in this one.
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 2: I like San Jose State in this one, though, like
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 2: I said. Getting the 6.5. I don't think you're going
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 2: to find a 7 on it. And you missed.
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 4: It was out there really early in the week, but
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 4: you missed it.
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 2: 49.5, not a high total there.
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 4: So that makes a little bit more sense. It makes
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 4: a little more sense to play the underdog with a
• 2:10:41
  Speaker 4: game like that.
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: That's it, man.
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 4: So the plays that I'm giving you for Week 3.
• 2:10:47
  Speaker 4: Bowling Green plus 24. UTEP plus 35. Try to find
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 4: the best numbers you can because those are two key
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 4: numbers there.
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 2: UTSA plus 30.5.
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to find the 31 on
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 4: that one, but I'm still fine with it. And UCLA
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 4: minus 14. Those are my four plays of the week.
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 4: Sometimes I want to– dude, I didn't think I was
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 4: going to have that many of those two. I knew
• 2:11:09
  Speaker 4: I was going to have the play against Texas, but
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 4: then the UCLA one came up late in my handicapping.
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 4: So as I went through it in chronological order, for
• 2:11:18
  Speaker 4: a while I only had the one play. on my
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 4: card for a while, but it comes out to my
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 4: average is about four in college football.
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 2: So that's going to do it.
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 4: Learn to tote on Twitter, learn to tote on Instagram,
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 4: like subscribe to the channel here, leave comments, hype it up,
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 4: all that good stuff. Um, subscribe and you'll get notified
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 4: when I go live. Cause I'm going to, I don't sleep.
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 4: I'll be live again in the morning to run down
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 4: the baseball card and see how many plays we find
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 4: in baseball. Um, we're on audio, Apple, Spotify, speaker, check
• 2:11:48
  Speaker 4: that out there. The numbers have been doing a bit better.
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 4: covered in uke on youtube for ukulele covers you can
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 4: check that out did a new one today but it's
• 2:11:55
  Speaker 4: not up there yet um with the banjo lately actually
• 2:12:00
  Speaker 4: um i don't think it came out that great but
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 4: it's a little bit harder of an instrument to play
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 4: than just the straight up uke um it's it's very
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 4: similar but it's i don't know the body is a
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 4: little bit harder to deal.
• 2:12:11
  Speaker 2: With um.
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 4: That's what she said i don't know um But also,
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 4: I have to promote Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you want
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 4: to throw me support over there. Loser cast every Tuesday,
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 4: and I have no idea about the Giants G-Spot podcast, man,
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 4: because I don't think I'm going to be here on Sunday.
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 4: So I don't want to bail on that idea of
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 4: doing the live shows or whatever. I'm pretty sure the
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 4: Giants are playing in the afternoon on Sunday against.
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 2: No, wait, no, they're not. Yes, perfect. They're in the
• 2:12:40
  Speaker 2: Monday night game. Yes, that's right.
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 4: And I'm giving out a play against them. As you
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 4: guys already know, probably, if you've watched my show.
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 2: So, all right, good.
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 4: I don't have to worry about it. That's going to
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 4: do it for now. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 3: Peace.
• 2:12:57
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 2: Not now.
• 2:13:23
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold.
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 1: On, let me pull you out.
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 3: That bad luck fights hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold.
• 2:13:43
  Speaker 2: On, stay with me now.
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 2: You're still here now.