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The new terror stalking Ukraine · The Morning Edition

0:02
S1: I'm at the train station. The phone goes off air alert.
0:06
S1: You also get the loudspeakers around telling you there's an
0:10
S1: air alert. I can see on my phone that it's yellow,
0:13
S1: so I know that it's going to be a drone, right?
0:16
S1: But it's a large city, so it doesn't mean that
0:18
S1: I know that above me there's going to be a drone.
0:20
S1: I just know somewhere there's that risk. I don't see
0:25
S1: people running for cover. It's only a yellow alert on
0:28
S1: their phone. And this is the thing about four years
0:30
S1: of war. People gauge the risks on the street. Most
0:35
S1: people continue with their daily lives.
0:41
S2: For many Ukrainians, daily life continues. Four years and six
0:46
S2: months since Russia launched its full scale invasion. But something
0:50
S2: significant has shifted in the war recently, as our correspondent
0:54
S2: David Crowe reports. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're listening
0:58
S2: to Morning Edition from The Age and The Sydney Morning
1:01
S2: Herald today. Europe correspondent David Crowe on the new terror
1:06
S2: stalking Ukrainians and what other countries can do to help. David,
1:15
S2: welcome back to the podcast.
1:17
S1: Good morning Sam.
1:18
S2: You are currently in Lviv, which is in the west
1:21
S2: of Ukraine, and you've been reporting in Ukraine, previously in
1:25
S2: Kyiv and in general, that many cities now are being
1:29
S2: stalked by a new terror. So let's just start there.
1:32
S2: What is different? What's happening, David?
1:35
S1: It's really the intensification of the attacks from the Russian side.
1:38
S1: It's really quite dramatic in the sense that people had
1:42
S1: been accustomed to drone strikes happening through the night, sometimes
1:46
S1: during the day. What the Russians have done is that
1:49
S1: they have stepped up that technology in a very deadly way,
1:54
S1: because they've fitted turbo jet engines to those drones. Now,
1:58
S1: this isn't a new development this week or this month
2:01
S1: because it's been happening over a couple of months. But
2:04
S1: it's the intensification that's really been noticeable. So we're now
2:09
S1: getting thousands of these jet powered drones hitting Ukraine per month.
2:14
S1: And it shows the ability of Russia to manufacture these
2:17
S1: at scale. In recent days, there have been hits on
2:22
S1: petrol stations.
2:23
S3: Russian drone hits a petrol station in Kyiv early this Tuesday,
2:27
S3: according to the city's mayor.
2:28
S1: A locomotive, several locomotives and a bus.
2:31
S4: A Russian drone attack on Kiev to Warsaw passenger train
2:35
S4: near its border.
2:36
S5: When the train behind them this is. The video was
2:39
S5: hit by a Russian drone, causing that big fireball and
2:43
S5: lots of smoke. So clearly a very serious attack.
2:51
S1: So this targeting of civilian infrastructure and civilian services is
2:57
S1: also another noticeable change. And this is why the people
3:01
S1: of Kyiv that I talk to, you know, started using
3:04
S1: this expression total war. It's very difficult for Ukraine to
3:08
S1: defend because the speed of the jet powered drone is
3:12
S1: about three times the speed of the ordinary drone. We're
3:15
S1: talking 600km an hour for some of these things when
3:18
S1: they're cruising. When you are trying to stop that, you
3:22
S1: need something extremely fast. And unfortunately, an old drone can't
3:26
S1: stop a jet powered drone, mostly. So that's what the
3:30
S1: Kyiv people are experiencing, that kind of intensification of attack.
3:37
S6: And so how do Ukrainians.
3:39
S2: Actually receive these alerts?
3:41
S1: Well, I've been in venues where everybody's phone has just
3:45
S1: gone off at the same time with no air raid alert.
3:49
S1: Proceed to shelter. It says things like, your complacency can
3:53
S1: be your undoing. And if I was at a petrol station,
3:55
S1: I would leave it immediately. However, the ones that concern
3:59
S1: people most are the red ones that they see on
4:01
S1: their phone, color coded to tell them that there's a
4:04
S1: risk of a ballistic missile. The reason they know that
4:07
S1: is because the air monitoring systems on the Ukrainian side
4:11
S1: know when a MiG aircraft has taken off from Russia
4:15
S1: or from Belorussia and is over the airspace near Ukraine.
4:19
S1: And when an aircraft like that is in the skies,
4:22
S1: they know that it's going to launch a ballistic missile
4:25
S1: or a missile of some kind. So it's the constant
4:28
S1: monitoring system that enables these alerts to be done.
4:32
S6: And what sort of devastation.
4:34
S2: I guess, are these new jet powered drones causing? Because
4:37
S2: as you say, you know, they're not that new this month,
4:40
S2: but it's the scope of the devastation. So what are
4:44
S2: we talking about here, David?
4:45
S1: Well, I went to a petrol station the other day
4:48
S1: that had been hit, uh, in Kyiv and above the bowsers.
4:53
S1: The roof was falling apart and they were dismantling it.
4:58
S1: The drone had struck the ground next to where the
5:01
S1: cars would pull up to fill up their tanks. Fortunately,
5:05
S1: it didn't actually ignite the storage tanks at the petrol station.
5:09
S1: So this is, I guess it highlights the the constant
5:14
S1: technical issue of the drones. They have a great range
5:17
S1: and they have a speed. They don't always have a
5:20
S1: massive payload. And so in this case, the drone did
5:23
S1: not damage the entirety of the petrol station. A couple
5:28
S1: of the bowsers were out of action. Half the bowsers
5:31
S1: in the petrol station were back working again. So I'm
5:36
S1: always struck by the ability of the community in Kyiv
5:40
S1: and elsewhere in Lviv to just get on with things.
5:44
S1: The shop was open again. People could go in, they
5:47
S1: could fill up their tanks. Life resumed. They've got this
5:50
S1: ability to do that. But of course it depends on
5:52
S1: the scale of the strike. In the case of the
5:54
S1: locomotive that was hit. It wasn't attached to passenger carriages
5:58
S1: at the time it was hit, but it was certainly
6:01
S1: very disturbing because it was right near the Polish border.
6:04
S1: And so, again, that showed the willingness of Russia to
6:06
S1: interfere in civilian infrastructure and send a message to Western
6:09
S1: countries that they weren't safe either right on the border
6:13
S1: with Ukraine.
6:14
S6: Well, it's interesting.
6:15
S2: That you mentioned there the messaging to other countries, because
6:18
S2: a Ukrainian colonel has said that these new jet powered
6:20
S2: drones aren't just a problem for Ukraine. They're a problem
6:23
S2: for I'm going to quote him here, the entire civilized world.
6:27
S2: So do you think he was putting the rest of
6:29
S2: us on notice that this is just a new frontier
6:32
S2: of warfare? You know, might army chiefs from other parts
6:34
S2: of the world be looking at what's happening and what
6:37
S2: you're seeing the aftermath of there in Ukraine with perhaps
6:40
S2: not alarm, but a realization that there's a new type
6:43
S2: of enemy with regards to weapons, I guess.
6:45
S1: Yeah, I've been thinking about that a lot because when I,
6:49
S1: I came into Ukraine on the overnight train from the
6:52
S1: Polish border and then went straight into a big event
6:55
S1: in Kyiv where there were a lot of people diplomats,
6:57
S1: military chiefs, uh, Ukrainian army officers and others all talking
7:03
S1: about what's happening in Ukraine today. And one of the
7:05
S1: big themes there was this necessity for the West to
7:09
S1: scale up in the face of what is a greater
7:11
S1: Russian threat. Uh, David Petraeus, the former CIA director I
7:16
S1: found to be very interesting as a speaker because he
7:18
S1: was he's totally connected and aware of what's happening in
7:23
S1: the Ukraine military. He says that the Russians are going
7:26
S1: to manufacture 10 million drones this year. He says that
7:29
S1: the Ukrainians are hoping to increase their manufacturing from 8
7:32
S1: million to 10 million. And this highlights an arms race,
7:37
S1: of course, but it also highlights the fact that every
7:41
S1: country now needs to be totally across this kind of technology.
7:44
S1: With the advent of turbojet engines, which are manufactured in China,
7:50
S1: by the way. So, you know, it's something for us
7:52
S1: to be aware of this is this is not limited
7:55
S1: to Europe as a technology. Uh, that change is going
8:00
S1: to be something that every country has to adapt to.
8:04
S1: And you can't just develop and then sit still. You
8:09
S1: actually have to prepare your defenses by being able to
8:14
S1: match the scale of manufacturing as well as the innovation
8:17
S1: of the technology. And it's sad to say, but it's
8:20
S1: something that I think Australia is falling behind on, and
8:22
S1: so we have to be aware of that. I thought
8:26
S1: that one interesting message out of that conference with everybody
8:30
S1: talking about, well, how does the West support Ukraine? Clearly
8:35
S1: supporting the industrial capacity of Ukraine is going to be vital.
8:39
S1: Manufacturing in Europe in order to supply Ukraine is going
8:43
S1: to become even more important when this current phase of
8:48
S1: the war is really highlighting the industrial power of Russia
8:53
S1: to keep manufacturing missiles and keep manufacturing drones. Despite sanctions
8:58
S1: on oil, despite financial restrictions. Despite the economic pressure that's
9:04
S1: been on Russia for four years, it hasn't been enough
9:07
S1: to stop the Russian economy being capable of this total
9:11
S1: war against a neighbor. And it highlights that economic measures
9:14
S1: alone are not enough, and that Europe is going to,
9:18
S1: I think, clearly has to do more if it's going
9:22
S1: to be able to help protect Ukraine.
9:27
S2: We'll be back in a minute.
9:36
S6: And you mentioned.
9:36
S2: Just before the connection between Russia having this technology and China.
9:41
S2: So talk to us a little bit more about this,
9:42
S2: because this is a reflection, isn't it, of the deepening
9:46
S2: alliance between the Kremlin, China and North Korea as well. Right.
9:50
S1: Yes. And I thought that the Polish Foreign Minister, Sikorski,
9:55
S1: made a very good point, which is that this war
9:58
S1: suits China very, very well. It's turning Russia into a
10:03
S1: vassal state of China. Russia's dependence on China just grows
10:08
S1: every day. Uh, and that is a very strategically a
10:13
S1: very good thing for China. It's not causing any problems
10:16
S1: for Beijing. The turbojet engines are just a small example
10:20
S1: of this. They're manufactured according to a Wall Street Journal
10:23
S1: report by a company that's based in Shenzhen. Uh, the
10:28
S1: Chinese coastline. And they have developed this and sent them
10:32
S1: through to Russia to be fitted on the Shahed drone,
10:36
S1: which in turn is based on an Iranian design. So
10:38
S1: there's Iranian work that's gone into this Russian work, Chinese work.
10:43
S1: North Korea is supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, which are
10:47
S1: being used against Ukrainian targets It. At the same time,
10:53
S1: it's also sending troops, and it manufactures artillery shells for Ukraine,
11:00
S1: for Russia to use against Ukraine. Now, one of the
11:05
S1: really disturbing conversations I had was with the former Swedish
11:10
S1: prime minister, Carl Bildt. He's totally across all these things.
11:16
S1: And he raises this key question. We know Russia is
11:20
S1: giving North Korea something in return. We don't know enough
11:22
S1: about what that is. There's a lot of speculation that
11:26
S1: North Korea wants to develop a nuclear powered or even
11:29
S1: nuclear armed submarine. Are they going to get technical assistance
11:34
S1: from Russia in order to manufacture that? So what happens
11:37
S1: to the power balance in Asia because of this alliance
11:40
S1: between North Korea and Russia, and because of this assistance
11:43
S1: from China that goes to Russia? What are the long
11:46
S1: term developments for Australia out of that shift? It's something
11:50
S1: that we absolutely have to be aware of. And I
11:52
S1: think it's pretty clear that, uh, abandoning Ukraine has grave,
11:59
S1: grave consequences if that ever happens for Europe, because it's
12:03
S1: a victory for Vladimir Putin. But it also has serious
12:06
S1: consequences for us, for Australia in terms of that global
12:09
S1: power balance. Uh, there is a clear interest in making
12:14
S1: sure that there is not a Russian victory in Europe.
12:18
S6: And you mentioned just.
12:19
S2: Before that, you know, other countries in the West are
12:21
S2: clearly on notice that they are going to need to
12:23
S2: help Ukraine develop countermeasures to to combat these new, you know,
12:27
S2: this new technology, these new tactics. But is there any
12:31
S2: suggestion do we hear any appetite from other countries to
12:34
S2: step up in that way?
12:35
S1: Yes. Uh, there is work being done in Western countries.
12:40
S1: The Baltics are very strongly supportive of Ukraine because being
12:44
S1: close to the Russian border, they really feel there's pressure.
12:47
S1: So you get examples where there's manufacturing of defense technology
12:51
S1: in neighboring countries that does assist Ukraine. I think one
12:55
S1: of the questions is about the scale of that and
12:56
S1: whether it needs to be greater. So that is underway.
12:59
S1: And also Western countries are in their rhetoric fully behind Ukraine.
13:06
S1: When the discussion turns to how does that lead to
13:10
S1: a ceasefire? And what is the what is the settlement
13:13
S1: after a ceasefire? I certainly didn't get any clarity on
13:18
S1: this key point in listening to speakers and having conversations
13:24
S1: in Kyiv in recent days. And so I think that
13:27
S1: is the challenge. Nobody really knows how a ceasefire would work,
13:31
S1: because nobody thinks that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is
13:36
S1: anywhere near trustworthy and that anything that he senses as
13:40
S1: a victory against Ukraine may only encourage him to further
13:45
S1: conflict with Europe. There's one other thing that's happening at
13:48
S1: the moment that really highlights this problem and this anxiety
13:53
S1: about Russia. We've seen civilian disruption. Blamed on sabotage at
14:02
S1: an airport in Germany, on railway lines in Poland, at
14:06
S1: a weapons factory in Bulgaria. Uh, we've seen a kind
14:11
S1: of a tension between Danish and Russian forces in recent days.
14:16
S1: This idea of the hybrid warfare being used by Russia
14:22
S1: against the West is a really major topic of conversation
14:26
S1: in Europe, because they're seeing more of it. And I
14:29
S1: thought one of the really interesting remarks I've heard over
14:33
S1: the past week has been that hybrid war is such
14:36
S1: a terrible euphemism for what's happening here. If you are
14:41
S1: having sabotage at a civilian airport, uh, is that really
14:45
S1: hybrid war or is that just war? Uh, so there
14:48
S1: is this, this, um, debate about how strongly Europe answers
14:54
S1: Russia because of the attacks it's seen.
14:57
S6: And given that.
14:57
S2: You've taken us through that Ukraine doesn't have the appropriate
15:00
S2: interceptors to stop these this new wave, I guess, of
15:04
S2: of Russian missiles. Does that mean that this could potentially
15:07
S2: become a turning point? Uh, and not a good one
15:10
S2: for Ukraine in this war. Like, could this be a
15:12
S2: point where Russia actually really gains the upper hand? Because
15:16
S2: for those of us non-experts who've been watching this war
15:19
S2: from afar for quite a long time now, it appears
15:22
S2: that there's been broadly not, if not a stalemate, then
15:25
S2: not much movement on each side. Right. So is this
15:28
S2: sort of a real upper hand moment potentially, or could
15:31
S2: it become one for Russia, or is it just not
15:33
S2: that much necessarily of a game changer?
15:36
S1: No, I think it is a it is a point
15:38
S1: where Russia has an advantage in this civilian warfare. Uh,
15:42
S1: Russia is certainly more willing and able To brutally strike
15:47
S1: civilian targets. The answer on the Ukrainian side is to
15:51
S1: try and hit the Russian supply chains, try and hit
15:54
S1: oil refineries, try and weaken the Russian economy, try to
15:57
S1: hit the supply chains that are a part of the
16:00
S1: manufacture of the drones and the missiles. Stop them at
16:04
S1: the source. In a sense. Now, Ukraine's been incredibly good
16:08
S1: at developing off its own bat some missiles, and it's
16:13
S1: sending drone strikes deep into Russian territory. It's way far
16:17
S1: into Russian territory. They've been hitting warehouses, for instance. They
16:21
S1: say that that is because those warehouses are part of
16:23
S1: a military supply chain, but it's also causing civilian disruption
16:27
S1: in Crimea, a Russian controlled territory. There are huge, uh,
16:32
S1: petrol and diesel shortages. You've got people queuing up at
16:35
S1: petrol stations. You've got people who can't buy fuel. So
16:38
S1: the civilian pain on the Russian side is significant. And
16:42
S1: Ukraine is trying to Get the war to a point
16:47
S1: where Russia cannot recruit enough soldiers to keep throwing wave
16:53
S1: upon wave of soldiers at the Ukrainian defenders in the East.
16:59
S1: So I wouldn't be in a position to make any
17:05
S1: forecast about how that will play out. But I do
17:07
S1: think in terms of the the the daily and nightly raids,
17:12
S1: Russia is certainly showing. It's got it's got the greater
17:15
S1: power right now. Uh, I don't get a sense that Ukraine.
17:21
S1: Certainly the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, would be willing to say, okay, uh,
17:26
S1: let's let's cave. Now he has said Ukraine would stop hitting, uh,
17:34
S1: energy infrastructure on the Russian side if Russia stopped hitting
17:37
S1: energy infrastructure on the Ukrainian side. He clearly wants some
17:41
S1: kind of ceasefire, some kind of terms where the the
17:45
S1: impact on the Ukrainian side can be moderated. Uh, but
17:48
S1: there's no sign that Russia is willing to do that.
17:51
S1: And there's no sign that Volodymyr Zelensky is willing to
17:54
S1: simply sign away the territory in the East that Vladimir
17:58
S1: Putin wants and claims. So they are far apart on
18:03
S1: the fundamental question of how to end the war. And
18:06
S1: as you would always see in this kind of situation,
18:09
S1: in every war, there are camps emerging that are pro-war, anti-war.
18:15
S1: There's a big debate about an essay by Julia Mendel,
18:17
S1: who used to be a press secretary to Vladimir Zelensky,
18:20
S1: where she says, we're not winning and we need to
18:23
S1: have a different outcome, basically. This is an argument that
18:26
S1: is in favor of getting to a negotiated settlement as
18:30
S1: fast as possible. She's been called a traitor, right? This
18:36
S1: is a common dynamic in countries at war. If you
18:39
S1: get a pro-peace faction emerging at a point like this,
18:44
S1: they will be called traitors. It's very hard to get
18:47
S1: a consensus in a country at war. To find a
18:50
S1: way to end the war. And Ukraine is not the
18:52
S1: first country, and unfortunately, probably not the last to have
18:55
S1: to go through that kind of debate. But that's where
18:58
S1: things are at right now.
19:02
S2: That's really interesting, David. And it brings me to my
19:04
S2: last question, because I wanted to ask you, you're there
19:07
S2: on the ground what your sense is of Ukrainian support
19:10
S2: for this war. Like, have people grown tired of it
19:13
S2: or are they as steadfast as ever?
19:15
S1: Many of them are as steadfast as ever. I talked
19:17
S1: to somebody in a bookshop, cafe, a beautiful bookshop, cafe
19:20
S1: in Kyiv, the sense bookstore. He's just about to sign up. Right.
19:26
S1: So he's absolutely determined to defend Ukraine. So he's going
19:32
S1: to he's in the process of signing up for the Army. Um,
19:35
S1: I talked to a lady. She wouldn't tell me her age.
19:39
S1: It's over 70. Selling flowers on the street behind a
19:42
S1: blackened building in Kyiv. Look. She was crying when she
19:47
S1: was telling me about. You know, how hard it is.
19:51
S1: I think for some people, they just want it to
19:53
S1: be over. Um, so you do get a range of opinion,
19:58
S1: but I don't get a sense that people are turning
20:01
S1: against the war in large numbers. The ability of the
20:05
S1: population to keep going is quite incredible. I mean. I
20:11
S1: don't want to sort of convey the sense that the
20:15
S1: country is crumbling, because when I walk around Kyiv, when
20:19
S1: I walk around Lviv, I see living cities full of
20:23
S1: activity where people are getting on with their lives. Even
20:27
S1: at the same time, there may be an alert on
20:29
S1: their phone. The traffic is busy, the pedestrians are busy,
20:33
S1: the coffee's great. You can get a matcha latte. Life continues.
20:38
S1: And for that, there are moments where you think, oh,
20:40
S1: I'm just in just any other European city. And that
20:44
S1: I find is quite incredible. You know, there's a pride
20:49
S1: in the Ukrainian people in being able to get through this.
20:52
S1: Just little things. The streets are swept. Things are looked after,
20:56
S1: flowers are put out. People are enjoying the moment. If
20:59
S1: there is a moment of peace, do they savour it
21:01
S1: all the more? Um, if somebody always had their hair
21:07
S1: just perfectly right before the war, they still do that
21:10
S1: during the war. And you know, if they had a
21:13
S1: bit of fashion sense before the war, they still turn
21:17
S1: up to meetings as if they were in any other
21:19
S1: European city. You don't get a sense that everybody's walking
21:23
S1: around in a flak jacket with a helmet because they
21:26
S1: are resigned to the war, or they they accept that
21:28
S1: it's the reality, but they're determined to live life and
21:32
S1: enjoy the peaceful moments as best they can.
21:36
S2: Well, David, it's a privilege to speak to you there
21:38
S2: on the ground in Ukraine this far into the war.
21:41
S2: So as always, thank you so much for your time.
21:44
S1: Thanks for having time to talk from this distance, Sam.
21:46
S1: Look forward to talking again.
21:56
S2: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Julia Carcasole.
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