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GTA August 2026 Dip: Buyers and Renewers | Your Mortgage Minute · Your Mortgage Minute | Onlendhub

• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to another episode of your mortgage minute.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Sarah.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: We're looking at the Greater Toronto area's August 2026 sales and listings dip and what it means if you're mortgage bound or renewing.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Moli, T-R-R-E-B, reported 5,057 home sales in August 2026, down 2.1% year over year.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: New listings were 12,075, down 14.1%.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'd push back on calling that automatically bullish.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: Seasonally adjusted sales were down slightly month over month, while new listings were up.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's mixed, isn't it?
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Hmm.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: TRREB is industry data, not government data.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: The board says less choice and more competition could lead to renewed price growth, but that's a forecast.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: For buyers, fewer listings can mean less negotiating room.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: The mortgage side is separate.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Fixed rates are moving on bond yields.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: That's the contradiction I want to unpack.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on September 2nd, 2026, its seventh straight hold.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: Variable rates stayed anchored, yet fixed rates rose.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, listen.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Variable rates track Prime.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Fixed rates track bond yields.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: CBC noted global bond yields were surging to multi-decade highs.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Canadian mortgage trends added Canada's five-year government bond yield rose by about a quarter of a percentage point that week, pushing lenders to raise fixed rates.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: By how much?
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: Canadian mortgage.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Trends quoted increases anywhere from 20 basis points to almost 100 basis points.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Major banks raised fixed rates by 10 to 20.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Nesto reported that lenders raise fixed renewal rates faster than they cut them.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: So what does this look like?
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: What assumptions are we using before any example?
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Assume a$480,000 mortgage balance, a current rate of 1.9%, a renewal rate of 4.5% 25 years remaining, and a 30-year extended amortization option.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: These are illustrative, not a quote.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: At those assumptions, the current monthly payment is$2,09.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: At renewal, 4.5% over$25 years gives$2,657.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: What's that jump look like?
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Current is$2,009.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Renewal is$2,657.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's an increase of$646.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Extended to 30 years, the payment is$2,420, which is$236 lower.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: But extending means principal falls more slowly.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Now, does everyone switching at renewal face the stress test?
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: The official primary OSFI source we have does not set out straight switch or minimum qualifying rate details.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Secondary commentary says an eligible uninsured straight switch with the same balance, same amortization, and no new money may not automatically face the prescribed minimum qualifying rate.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: But lender underwriting can differ.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: If the prescribed stress test applies, it's the greater of your contract rate plus two percentage points or 5.25%.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: At 4.5%, that's 6.5%.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: So an eligible uninsured straight switch must not be described as automatically subject to that prescribed minimum qualifying rate.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: It depends on the transaction, the lender, and whether it's insured or uninsured.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Official rules and lender policy aren't the same.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: And an appraisal is one input.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't decide approval by itself.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: What about the renewal wave?
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: The Canadian Wire says more than 1.15 million mortgages renew in 2026.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: BIPS says 1.8 million.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: Those don't match.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: They don't.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Calkeen reported the Bank of Canada estimates about 12% of outstanding mortgages are the final wave of pandemic era five-year fixed mortgages, with payments potentially rising by roughly 15% on average.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Another 14% are variable payment and shorter-term fixed mortgages.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: BIPS shows a June 2026 peak and 5.7 million renewals from 2024 to 2028 counts conflict.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Shorter terms can offer short-term budget relief, but increase vulnerability at the next renewal.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: The GTA dip sits alongside rising fixed rates, a renewal wave, and more variable or short-term borrowing.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: For buyers, less inventory may mean less choice.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: For renewers, the payment reset is the main event.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: The Bank of Canada held at 2.25%, but fixed rates rose because bond yields rose.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: Renewers should compare contract rate, amortization, and lender underwriting before assuming any rule applies automatically.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: Illustrative only, lender calculations, fees, insurance, taxes, and payment frequency can differ.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Sarah.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm Mooley.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for listening to your mortgage minute by OnlandHub.ca.