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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the economic impact of the US election · The SME Stream

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  Speaker 1: Ever Duple c Ellen, Heather Kara and Nate Traveller YouTube's
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  Speaker 1: endorse ag one also thank you. Yeah, we're going to
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  Speaker 1: talk to John about that after help us six. Now
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  Speaker 1: it's seventeen past six, just six more sleeps to go
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  Speaker 1: until voters in the US decide who's going to be
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  Speaker 1: the next president. We're going to be watching it like
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  Speaker 1: hawks as well, because of course it might affect the
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  Speaker 1: New Zealand businesses. Liam dan is The Herald's Business editor
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  Speaker 1: at large.
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  Speaker 2: He Liam, Hey, Heather.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, who do you reckon would be better for our economy? Oh?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I guess you know. It's a weird one because
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  Speaker 2: we don't really know a lot, partly because I think
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  Speaker 2: Kamala Harris has been a bit vague on policy. We
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  Speaker 2: don't know exactly what's coming there. And then of course
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  Speaker 2: good old Donald Trump. He is so incredibly specific about
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  Speaker 2: all the things he's going to do, and then it's
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  Speaker 2: very hard to know, you know, exactly whether he will
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  Speaker 2: do them because what he sees is sometimes a bit different.
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  Speaker 2: The trade stuff I think makes life a little bit
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  Speaker 2: difficult for New Zealand. So's that's the big policy from
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  Speaker 2: Donald trum rumps putting ten percent tariffs on everything that
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  Speaker 2: goes into the United States, and then sixty percent tariffs
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  Speaker 2: on Chinese goods, which could also have some weird you know,
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  Speaker 2: if you think about it, what's that going to mean
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  Speaker 2: for all the Chinese goods around the world. It may
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  Speaker 2: actually mean some cheap stuff coming our way, which we
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  Speaker 2: don't probably need more of, but maybe electric cars all
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  Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. You know, it's kind of it's
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  Speaker 2: kind of uncharted territory. It's a big experiment, so even there,
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  Speaker 2: we don't know for sure. I know that you know
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  Speaker 2: that the big mainstream economists at the IMF and the
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  Speaker 2: World Bank are a bit nervous about the prospect of
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  Speaker 2: Trump winning, which you know, like looks like a pretty
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  Speaker 2: good chance. I guess you'd have to say, just because
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  Speaker 2: of the uncertainty. It could be good for sheer markets,
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  Speaker 2: could be good for our kiwi save but they still
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  Speaker 2: expect a bit of a trumpet bump.
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  Speaker 1: It was great last time, wasn't it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you're not quite sure what it would
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  Speaker 2: be predicated on so much this time because he's talked
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  Speaker 2: about tax cuts again, but there is a possibility that
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  Speaker 2: he just can't do them. Partly for cong because he
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  Speaker 2: might have Congress, but also because the deficit is so
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  Speaker 2: huge in the United States, you get in that same
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  Speaker 2: situation that Tersa May had in the UK, which is
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  Speaker 2: that you're up against bond markets which absolutely punish your
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  Speaker 2: economy if you start trying to do things like cut
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  Speaker 2: taxes while you have a giant deficit. And as you know,
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  Speaker 2: I think it was James Cavell Caville, Wilkinton's advisor once said,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the only thing he'd ever want to come
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  Speaker 2: back as to be the bond market because everybody is
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  Speaker 2: scared of it, and you know that that could just
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  Speaker 2: stymy those plans. So there's a bit of skeptics tax cuts. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: On the other hand, Liam, I mean it kind of counterintuitively,
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump actually is pretty good for world peace, right,
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  Speaker 1: So isn't that actually weirdly good for us because if
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  Speaker 1: you settle down all those tensions, we benefit.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it weirdly could be. If you think
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  Speaker 2: about our worst case scenario in New Zealand, it's probably
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  Speaker 2: some sort of military action around Taiwan, right, because we
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  Speaker 2: have to pick aside and if if it's more likely
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  Speaker 2: in that sort of scenario, which hopefully doesn't come to that.
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  Speaker 2: You that you'd have Donald Trump sitting down with Jujun
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  Speaker 2: purning or maybe deciding not to get involved, or something
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  Speaker 2: which would which potentially could make life easier for New Zealand.
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  Speaker 2: But you know that that's I guess, you know, big
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  Speaker 2: geopolitical stuff. It's hard. It's hard to know. I guess
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  Speaker 2: that's what gets me. It's it's all very very uncertain,
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  Speaker 2: including obviously the result, which you know that we've got to.
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  Speaker 2: We're so close now that it's very hard for the
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  Speaker 2: polls to really tell us what's going to happen in
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  Speaker 2: six counties and three different states. You know, it's crazy
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  Speaker 2: how tired it gets in America
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  Speaker 1: Totally, Liam, thanks very much for talking us through to
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  Speaker 1: appreciated is Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor at large,