Latest / Simply Bitcoin / LEAKED: Did They FINALLY Buy Bitcoin For The Strategic Reserve? | EP 1436

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LEAKED: Did They FINALLY Buy Bitcoin For The Strategic Reserve? | EP 1436 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:01
  What if the US government has already bought Bitcoin for the
• 0:05
  strategic reserve and nobody even noticed?
• 0:09
  And why are there rumors that the US government was allegedly
• 0:12
  buying Bitcoin at $60,000 during last week's flash crash?
• 0:17
  Well, these rumors aren't just coming from Twitter.
• 0:20
  It's not just coming from Bitcoin Twitter out here.
• 0:23
  We have a clip for you from the national news talking about
• 0:27
  this. So let's play the clip and then
• 0:29
  we'll break breakdown this. We'll breakdown the clip here.
• 0:35
  Do. You think that the president is
• 0:36
  going to fill the Bitcoin reserve?
• 0:38
  I don't know that will. Well, that's what I.
• 0:40
  Heard. 60 I heard at 60 he's going to fill the Bitcoin
• 0:43
  reserve. You better cover.
• 0:45
  Do you think that Trump is serious about creating this
• 0:47
  Bitcoin reserve and how how would that work?
• 0:51
  I think he is. And you know, if you think about
• 0:55
  the Louisiana Purchase, California and Alaska, we paid
• 0:58
  $40 million to buy 75% of the United States.
• 1:02
  Nobody remembers the $40 million.
• 1:05
  But if you know where the money's going, you should buy
• 1:08
  the property by the future. All right, you guys saw it.
• 1:12
  Of course, it is coming from Jim Cramer, which I guess we have to
• 1:16
  hold our breath here, but I have been convinced that he is.
• 1:21
  I, I, I don't know exactly how to, how to say it.
• 1:24
  He is saying what the, how do you say powers that be want to
• 1:29
  be known here. I think that's his actual job.
• 1:32
  So when they say, you know, buy something.
• 1:35
  I'm calling it bro I'm. You're doubling down.
• 1:38
  You're doubling down. I'm.
• 1:38
  Calling it I'm calling. Could you share the screen?
• 1:40
  Yeah, yeah. All right, let me let me pull
• 1:42
  everything up. OK, so First off, I'm calling in
• 1:44
  here. Here's the tweet.
• 1:46
  Here's the tweet. Yeah, you you want to take it
• 1:48
  from here, Nico? No, no, no, I'm going to pass it
• 1:50
  back on to you. I just want to save my bit and
• 1:52
  then I'll jump back in. But here it is guys.
• 1:56
  Here's the TLDR. This was a picture from Ivanka Trump's
• 2:02
  Instagram. And as you could see on the
• 2:05
  right hand side of that picture, there's our boy Michael Saylor,
• 2:10
  right? Yeah.
• 2:11
  What it? What it?
• 2:12
  Opted in this picture that is not that's not photoshopped,
• 2:19
  that is from her story. And I actually got this message
• 2:25
  from someone who worked in kind of Fortune 500 companies and
• 2:32
  he's been telling me the same message for the last year or so.
• 2:35
  And I'll break it down like this.
• 2:38
  I think there is a high probability that by the end of
• 2:44
  Trump's term they're going to announce that the United States
• 2:48
  government has been buying Bitcoin for the reserves.
• 2:52
  This is why Sailor is always around the Trump family.
• 2:56
  This is why Sailor went to Mar a Lago.
• 2:59
  This is why Sailor is winning and dining.
• 3:03
  This is what it's all about. All right?
• 3:05
  And remember, every single pump we had last year was essentially
• 3:11
  cut short when Trump would go on X or go on Truth Social and
• 3:17
  basically say, hey, actually there's a tariff and that would
• 3:25
  cause the price to crash like 50 to 60 to 70%, right?
• 3:30
  Every single time it was like horrific crashes, right?
• 3:35
  And then you connect the dots with Howard Lepnick.
• 3:38
  Howard Lepnick famously went on the Anthony Pompliano podcast
• 3:43
  and was basically saying, like, look, every time there's a dip,
• 3:47
  you know I'm going to be buying 10s of millions, hundreds of
• 3:49
  millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, right?
• 3:54
  Howard Lupnik is the head of commerce.
• 3:57
  I believe in the isn't he? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 4:01
  Commerce. So if you put these pieces
• 4:06
  together, they're all incentivized for number go up.
• 4:13
  They all have very big bags, right?
• 4:17
  And I bet you that there's conversations that are happening
• 4:20
  behind the scenes that we are not Privy to, right?
• 4:26
  But they're all incentivized for number to go up.
• 4:29
  How does number go up? What's, what is the biggest
• 4:31
  catalyst that can happen for number to go up?
• 4:35
  the United States government announcing that not only have
• 4:40
  they established A strategic Bitcoin reserve, but they're
• 4:42
  actively accumulating Bitcoin. That's the massive catalyst.
• 4:48
  That is the huge catalyst and between we've been more right
• 4:53
  than we've been wrong on this show, like 85 to 90% of our call
• 4:58
  outs have been right. It's just a six month delay,
• 5:01
  right? It's a six month delay and I'm
• 5:05
  I'm calling it right there. When you see an Instagram story
• 5:09
  like that, like it, it's it's not just things just don't
• 5:14
  happen in coincidence like that, right?
• 5:17
  Like, why is he there? Why are they having that?
• 5:20
  Do you think he's just there to like, socialize and have
• 5:23
  conversations? No, he's there for one specific
• 5:27
  reason. What is the one specific reason?
• 5:31
  The Trump family's there? Who's in office?
• 5:34
  Who is part of the administration?
• 5:37
  Donald Trump, who has the 6th largest Bitcoin treasury
• 5:40
  company. Donald Trump, whose sons and
• 5:44
  family are heavily involved in the Bitcoin industry.
• 5:48
  Donald Trump, who's the president of the United States?
• 5:51
  Donald Trump, his commerce secretary.
• 5:54
  What? What?
• 5:55
  What about him? He's literally saying he's
• 5:58
  buying 10s of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars worth of
• 6:00
  Bitcoin. Treasury, Treasury Secretary
• 6:04
  Scott Besson. What is he saying?
• 6:07
  Right? You saw him getting interviewed
• 6:10
  in a Senate, in a Senate committee last week, and he's
• 6:13
  literally basically saying how the importance of the Clarity
• 6:16
  Act getting passed. And the person who's asking this
• 6:19
  question is Senator Cynthia Lummis, right?
• 6:22
  Like, this is speculation, but it's also not rocket science,
• 6:27
  right? It's very clear what's happening
• 6:30
  here. And I think you could make a
• 6:32
  very strong argument that what happened in 2025 was essentially
• 6:38
  them not wanting the Bitcoin price to go up so that they can
• 6:44
  accumulate cheap, right? And if you take a look at some
• 6:47
  of the volume, no, pure hopium. No, I'm calling it like this is
• 6:52
  what's happening. Like this is what's happening in
• 6:54
  the background. I'm telling you like this is
• 6:56
  what's happening. Like I, I this is literally
• 6:59
  what's happening. This let let me let me connect
• 7:01
  some more dots here 'cause there is, there is some interesting
• 7:04
  stuff and I and I will bring in the charts and, and well, not
• 7:07
  I'm not going to like you know, TA for you guys, but we got to
• 7:10
  remember look, so we have you know the screenshot here.
• 7:14
  This is from her official Twitter account.
• 7:16
  Obviously, you know, sailors in the background just being sailor
• 7:21
  lol. But you got to remember he did
• 7:24
  just do the MicroStrategy shareholder meeting and he was
• 7:29
  in a hotel room and you got to remember what was the opening
• 7:33
  frame in that shareholder meeting?
• 7:35
  Do you remember Nico? Do you remember what the opening
• 7:37
  frame was for this shareholder meeting?
• 7:40
  Oh dude, did it just reset on me?
• 7:42
  Hold on it My my Twitter just reset on me.
• 7:45
  Here we go. Here is the opening frame for
• 7:49
  the shareholder meeting for the MicroStrategy.
• 7:53
  What is it, you know, year review or whatever.
• 7:56
  Literally the first slide was about Donald Trump being the
• 8:00
  Bitcoin president, you know, his intent of making America the
• 8:03
  Bitcoin superpower, crypto capital world, the leader in
• 8:06
  digital assets. And you can see here he's not in
• 8:09
  his usual, you know, Giga mansion here.
• 8:14
  He was at that specific hotel. So he's literally at that hotel
• 8:17
  doing a shareholder meeting saying, hey, Trump, Trump's the
• 8:21
  Bitcoin president of the world. Then he gets caught at the
• 8:24
  Ivanka Trump, whatever that was. Who knows?
• 8:26
  I don't even know what it was. And Nico and I have been saying
• 8:31
  for a little bit that this is most likely what's going on.
• 8:34
  If you are a nation state out there and you're you're saying,
• 8:38
  hey, we want to do this, I don't think, and again, I don't know
• 8:42
  the legalities of this. So maybe Nico can clarify some
• 8:45
  of this more political stuff here.
• 8:47
  But just from a Bitcoiners perspective, you may announce
• 8:51
  that you're going to be buying Bitcoin, but you don't actually
• 8:53
  announce when you're buying that Bitcoin.
• 8:54
  Now, again, there might be some legalities of them actually
• 8:57
  having to announce these buys. I'm I'm not the most versed on
• 9:00
  this, but the coincidences. Nico's shaking his head.
• 9:03
  Legality, my ball says. Look, they're waiting.
• 9:08
  They're literally waiting till they have their bags packed.
• 9:11
  That's my point and they're that's the smartest move to do.
• 9:13
  They're just going to come out and say, hey, we've actually
• 9:16
  been accumulating that's. Literally let's go I'm I'm all
• 9:19
  for that, I guess. All right, all right, let's go
• 9:22
  do the Coinbase premium here is the end screen here.
• 9:25
  This is what everyone is pointing at.
• 9:28
  Obviously we all know last week the price dumped and you can see
• 9:33
  the Bitcoin Coinbase premiums index, the prices and I don't
• 9:36
  even know what this is black Coinbase premium index.
• 9:39
  You can see it has been skyrocketing.
• 9:41
  So someone is definitely in the market right now scooping it up.
• 9:46
  Now going back to the clip, I know a lot of bitcoiners do not
• 9:50
  like Jim Cramer because we we always joke the inverse.
• 9:53
  Kramer's probably the best way to make the most money possible.
• 9:56
  If Kramer says something, he's most likely, you know, what is
• 10:02
  the exit liquidity out here. He's most likely telling the
• 10:05
  market what what his how do you say it?
• 10:09
  I, I don't want to I don't want to say handlers here, but what
• 10:12
  the elites want him to say. And he'd be like, hey, you know,
• 10:15
  you should buy this because they want the average person to buy
• 10:18
  it because they want exit liquidity.
• 10:20
  Now it is interesting that he is saying that the US government is
• 10:23
  buying Bitcoin that he is hearing credible speculation
• 10:27
  that they bought the 60 K dip. Now, I don't think that the
• 10:31
  Trump administration would want him to necessarily say that, but
• 10:36
  it is very interest that Kramer is saying this on, you know,
• 10:40
  what's it CNBC or, or what's it mad money or whatever.
• 10:44
  But I, I, I also believe before you go, I also believe they've
• 10:47
  been buying. Bro it it's not rocket science.
• 10:50
  It's not rocket science, right? Like the president has the 6th
• 10:53
  largest Bitcoin treasury company.
• 10:55
  All his his cabinet members have huge stakes in Bitcoin.
• 11:00
  Even RFK the health guy is basically saying he has his the
• 11:05
  majority of his liquid net worth in Bitcoin.
• 11:08
  The vice president literally has owns Bitcoin.
• 11:12
  Like all of this is like this is confirmed.
• 11:15
  Tulsi Gabbard spoke at the Bitcoin conference.
• 11:18
  The vice president spoke at the Bitcoin conference.
• 11:20
  His sons have huge stakes in Bitcoin businesses.
• 11:25
  Like it, it, it, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to put two
• 11:29
  and two together. Now, you would ask, like, why
• 11:33
  hasn't this been announced yet? Like, why hasn't this been
• 11:36
  revealed yet? Well, I don't think that they've
• 11:38
  packed their bags as much as they've wanted to pack their
• 11:41
  bags because the way that this works is basically suppress the
• 11:45
  price as much as as long as humanly possible so that you can
• 11:49
  accumulate cheap sats. You can literally point out the
• 11:53
  times last year where Bitcoin was pumping and then trump fat
• 11:59
  fingers on true social says some things.
• 12:02
  And then the price takes a catastrophic dump shortly after.
• 12:07
  And then then the following day he goes on, he's like, you
• 12:10
  should probably be buying right now.
• 12:12
  And then he goes on true social the next day and he's like,
• 12:14
  actually, we're reversing back those tariffs, right?
• 12:18
  And then the price recovers, right?
• 12:20
  He kind kind of did the same thing, by the way, recently with
• 12:24
  this crash TO60K and then we went back to 70K.
• 12:27
  He said, look, we're going to have a run.
• 12:29
  We're going to have the most one of the most epic runs ever.
• 12:31
  Like he's done this recently. So clearly, like at the end of
• 12:36
  the day, if you want to see the outcome, you have to look at the
• 12:39
  incentive. The incentive is they own a lot
• 12:42
  of Bitcoin. The incentive is they're heavily
• 12:44
  invested in the Bitcoin industry.
• 12:46
  The incentive is their cabinet members are all heavily invested
• 12:50
  in the Bitcoin industry. The regulators are pro Bitcoin.
• 12:55
  Scott Besson, the future Fed chair, they're all pro Bitcoin.
• 12:59
  So if you think that the first pro Bitcoin president is going
• 13:06
  to leave office with a price lower than when he got into
• 13:12
  office, you are bat shit crazy, full stop.
• 13:17
  You're crazy. You're like you're, you're,
• 13:19
  you're, you're, you're living, you're, you're living in a
• 13:22
  different reality, ladies and gentlemen, right.
• 13:25
  So what I think is happening is there actively trying to keep
• 13:31
  the price down so that they pack their bags.
• 13:34
  When their bags are sufficiently packed, then they're going to
• 13:38
  make an announcement and that announcement is going to send
• 13:41
  Bitcoin to the moon. That's my 2 sats.
• 13:43
  When I saw this picture of Sailor basically like kind of,
• 13:47
  you know, in the background, like, you know, Shake looking
• 13:50
  his head over just like that. Like, do you do you think
• 13:54
  Sailor's there for social reasons?
• 13:56
  Absolutely not. He's not there just to socialize
• 14:00
  and just be like, all right, guys, let's have a great time
• 14:03
  and, you know, let's talk and, you know, we, we, we got to
• 14:07
  just, you know, converse and like, no, he's there for one
• 14:12
  reason and one reason only. He wants MicroStrategy.
• 14:16
  He wants strategy to go to the effing moon before Elon Musk,
• 14:20
  right? That's literally what's that?
• 14:22
  That's literally what Sailor wants, right?
• 14:25
  And what what is the most efficient way for strategies to
• 14:30
  go to the moon as fast as humanly possible for the United
• 14:33
  States government to make a global announcement that they
• 14:38
  are actively not just holding Bitcoin, actively accumulating
• 14:43
  Bitcoin. And that is the biggest catalyst
• 14:47
  the world has ever seen. And I think it will send Bitcoin
• 14:51
  to at least half $1,000,000 per coin in a very, very, very,
• 14:55
  very, very short amount of time. That's my take on all this.
• 15:00
  I'm with that. Even though I am, you know, even
• 15:04
  though we are, we are separation of state and money.
• 15:09
  Maxi I. Didn't even know.
• 15:11
  I didn't even know someone made like a like a.
• 15:14
  Montage was great. Of my tweet, bro, but it's so
• 15:17
  obvious like it's so we've been saying this for months, but when
• 15:20
  I saw that I'm like, dude, like come on now, this is this is
• 15:23
  incredibly obvious and this is what.
• 15:27
  Wait, wait, wait, wait. Before you go on, I'm going to
• 15:29
  cut you off real quick. Are you willing to take back
• 15:33
  your take from last week about the US government not being
• 15:37
  serious ever since Bo Hines and Lummis back down?
• 15:41
  After I see this picture, I saw this picture 100 percent, 100%.
• 15:45
  Not taken back. After I saw this.
• 15:47
  So now you have faith in politics again.
• 15:50
  You have faith and incentives. I'm trolling.
• 15:52
  I'm trolling. You have faith and incentives.
• 15:54
  It's not. This isn't.
• 15:55
  This has nothing to do with politics.
• 15:57
  This has nothing to do with politics.
• 15:59
  It has to do with incentives. It has to do with the fact that
• 16:03
  I think the Trump family sees Bitcoin as a way to get
• 16:07
  fabulous. Like fabulous.
• 16:09
  British hodled. British hodled.
• 16:11
  Quote here I. Think that they see Bitcoin as a
• 16:15
  mechanism to get very wealthy themselves.
• 16:17
  That's what it's not rocket science Like this isn't
• 16:20
  politics. This is literally human
• 16:22
  incentives, right? And I think that the only reason
• 16:27
  they haven't done so already is because they weren't
• 16:30
  sufficiently positioned in order to make that type of
• 16:33
  announcement to benefit the most they can from it.
• 16:39
  We're getting screamed at. Yeah, the Chad's cooking.
• 16:42
  The Chad's so good. Oh, man, This is this is good.
• 16:47
  This is delicious. OK, hold on.
• 16:48
  This is a delicious Monday. Wine wants us to mention the
• 16:51
  giveaway. Dude, it's not time yet.
• 16:54
  It's not, it's not time yet. Wine, chill out.
• 16:57
  It's on time. I I mean, I guess whatever,
• 16:59
  whatever, do it now. Who cares?
• 17:00
  All right. We will be giving away a, we
• 17:04
  will be giving away a bit. Key another one.
• 17:07
  Why yo chill there's there's a. We will be giving away a bit
• 17:11
  key. There's motion to this so.
• 17:13
  Go on Twitter. Enter the contest.
• 17:15
  It has all the details there. And then we'll be announcing the
• 17:19
  the winner on Friday. So I'll keep reminding you guys
• 17:22
  all throughout the week. But anyways, the intro for
• 17:24
  today's episode is this. I've completely changed my mind
• 17:29
  since last week. I think that they're going to
• 17:36
  announce that the US government has been buying Bitcoin and I
• 17:40
  think it's 100% because the Trump's have a large stake in
• 17:45
  Bitcoin and Bitcoin businesses. And I think that Michael Saylor
• 17:49
  has been putting in the work to influence the Trump family to
• 17:57
  basically make this announcement.
• 17:59
  There's absolutely no reason as to why he would be in these
• 18:04
  events otherwise. And I'll tell you another thing
• 18:06
  too, right? Out of all the people, you
• 18:10
  didn't have to one what? You put it in the chat, bro, But
• 18:15
  OK, out of all the people in that, can you pull up that
• 18:21
  picture 'cause it's hilarious out of all the people in that?
• 18:24
  Event wait the the Sailor. One, there's probably like 500
• 18:26
  people at that event, right at like 500 to 1000 people at that
• 18:30
  event. And you're trying to tell me
• 18:32
  that when they take this beautiful picture of the Trump's
• 18:39
  and the. Family let me go to the the big
• 18:41
  one here. That the only time they take a
• 18:45
  picture is the time when Sailor's kind of in the back.
• 18:48
  Like just poking his head out like that to me is a sign.
• 18:53
  That's some symbolism right there bro.
• 18:55
  I I don't. Think it was on purpose.
• 18:56
  I think that's just simulation. That's.
• 18:58
  Simulation bro I 100. I 100% believe that was on
• 19:02
  purpose. Now.
• 19:03
  Now you're really reaching no? I'm not reaching bro.
• 19:06
  Think about it. Why Outlook?
• 19:08
  Look, if you take a picture and then someone kind of photo bombs
• 19:13
  it, right? That's not even a photo bomb
• 19:15
  bro. He's just like in the
• 19:16
  background. That's a photo bomb bro.
• 19:19
  Isn't a photo bomb when you like jump?
• 19:21
  In that guy's famous bro, that guy's famous if it was like he's
• 19:26
  got motion, if he, if he was a random person, if he was a
• 19:29
  random person. Honestly, I think that's what
• 19:31
  happened. The person taking a picture was
• 19:33
  like, there's just some random in the background.
• 19:34
  We're cool. And Bitcoin Twitter's like, oh
• 19:36
  dude, Sailor's chilling with the Trump.
• 19:38
  Got it. But he was chilling with the
• 19:40
  Trump's bro. He was making a move.
• 19:44
  He was. He was approaching.
• 19:48
  All right, all right, can I throw another little conspiracy
• 19:50
  theory in here? This is not a conspiracy.
• 19:52
  Theory. I'm not, I'm not.
• 19:53
  I'm not saying this is AI want to throw one in.
• 19:55
  I want to throw a conspiracy. Theory in we are tomorrow's
• 19:57
  Bitcoin news today, all right. And so far, Opti, we have a
• 20:01
  very, very high track record of the shit we call out.
• 20:04
  Yeah, someone's. This is denial, boys.
• 20:07
  Yeah, this is Coke. This is.
• 20:08
  This is. This is.
• 20:10
  Peak. Peak bear market coke.
• 20:12
  I'm not. Saying the price, I'm not saying
• 20:13
  we're not in a bear market. I'm not saying we can't go down.
• 20:16
  We could totally go down to like 45-K30K.
• 20:19
  We could all of that. OK, enough of that, enough of
• 20:22
  that. Let me hold on.
• 20:23
  Let me get wait. Wrong one.
• 20:25
  Let's. All of that stuff is still gonna
• 20:27
  happen, right? Like we're still gonna have a
• 20:30
  bear market. I'm not.
• 20:31
  I'm not debating that. But what I'm trying to tell you,
• 20:33
  ladies and gentlemen, is that there is no doubt in my mind
• 20:37
  that by the time we get to 2028, the Trump administration will
• 20:42
  have made an announcement that they're actively accumulating
• 20:47
  Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• 20:49
  I have no doubt in my mind that is the case.
• 20:54
  All right, bet. All right.
• 20:55
  Well, can I add another wrinkle into this?
• 20:57
  Can we add another wrinkle? It's just an opinion, but.
• 21:00
  It's just an opinion, but. That's.
• 21:02
  My All right, let's add another wrinkle into this.
• 21:04
  What? Why else would he be there?
• 21:08
  Maybe, maybe he cares about children with cancer.
• 21:10
  No, I, I, I'm not, I'm sure he, I'm sure Sailor's a, a very, you
• 21:14
  know, a philanthropist, philanthropic person.
• 21:17
  Sailor's a philanthropist and he wants to give back to, you know,
• 21:20
  he wants to give back to on, you know, to children and Saint Jude
• 21:25
  Hospital, Saint Jude Hospital. I'm not, I'm not saying that he
• 21:28
  wouldn't do that. But what I'm trying to say is
• 21:30
  that these types of events are some of the the best networking
• 21:33
  events ever. True, true, true statistic.
• 21:36
  Like probabilistically, the fact that they took that picture and
• 21:40
  Saylor was the one in the background like.
• 21:43
  Dude, it's just simulation week. Why?
• 21:45
  Why do you think sailors at, at, at at Mar a Lago?
• 21:47
  Oh, I'll put another thing in here.
• 21:50
  Why do you think in the earnings call, Michael Saylor mentions
• 21:55
  that's what I was winning the election?
• 21:57
  That's what. I was saying why is like, why,
• 22:00
  why does he keep mentioning that over and over and over again,
• 22:03
  right? He he went to C PAC, bro, he's a
• 22:07
  tech CEO and he went to C PAC, right?
• 22:11
  He went to a conservative. He went to a conservative
• 22:17
  conference. You look good.
• 22:19
  What are you talking? What?
• 22:20
  Are you it? It looks like it's my camera was
• 22:25
  see like it's like it's getting unfocused on me.
• 22:28
  What's going on here anyways? Anyways, keep going.
• 22:31
  Sorry. Dude.
• 22:37
  Go keep going, keep talking dude.
• 22:39
  I'll I'll figure out the camera thing.
• 22:40
  So OK. So last thing and then we're
• 22:43
  going to move. On Wait, no, no, I I want to add
• 22:45
  one more thing into this. What is it that you want?
• 22:47
  My camera keeps on focusing on me.
• 22:52
  Let's not forget that last week, most of all Bitcoin, Twitter was
• 22:56
  blaming CZ for dumping in the price.
• 22:58
  You know, he said he was going to buy a couple of billion.
• 23:01
  Turns out, oopsie, sorry, we accidentally sold a billion and
• 23:05
  we nuke the price of Bitcoin on a random, what was it, random?
• 23:08
  Thursday we had one of the biggest, the biggest dumps in
• 23:13
  history. No one knows why, you know, CZ
• 23:18
  totally also got pardoned. Maybe there was some back end
• 23:22
  conversation about, hey, you know, at a certain point we're
• 23:26
  going to need you to give us a good entry into the market.
• 23:31
  Maybe that's what happened. And now and now there's rumors
• 23:34
  that Trump or the the US government is adding to the
• 23:37
  strategic Bitcoin reserve. Hey, man, I I'm putting all my
• 23:41
  tinfoil hat on today, but it do be making some sense.
• 23:44
  It do be making some sense. So you're going to be bummed
• 23:48
  when we rally and don't stop. I totally agree with that.
• 23:51
  Someone gets it. How do you how do you fat finger
• 23:56
  a billion? Yeah, how do you fat finger sell
• 23:59
  a billion? All right, no, listen, bro.
• 24:02
  Doesn't make sense. Look, they pardon CZCZ dumps the
• 24:06
  market. Everyone has a chance.
• 24:09
  All the insiders have a chance to pump their bags, right?
• 24:12
  And then we get back above. 70K and then all of a sudden
• 24:15
  sailors, Trump goes on true social like he always does and
• 24:19
  he's like, look, instead of bombing Iran, we've bought.
• 24:23
  Oh hey, what? Can you say that you can't say
• 24:26
  that? What?
• 24:26
  Do you mean we're? On YouTube bro.
• 24:29
  Anyways, keep going. Keep going.
• 24:30
  Instead of instead of doing things metaphorically
• 24:36
  metaphoric. I never said bro that like that.
• 24:40
  What do you mean? That's like, that's what Trump
• 24:42
  does. Bro look, I'm he goes.
• 24:44
  On true social, he's like, listen, we, we, we kidnapped.
• 24:48
  Oh, well, we kidnap, we kidnap, we kidnap the president of, of,
• 24:53
  of, of a country. Like, I mean, this is, this is
• 24:58
  Trump's status quo. This is what he does, bro.
• 25:00
  This is this is like his his matters, his his operandi bro.
• 25:04
  This is this is typical Trump. You know, he does have
• 25:08
  brinksmanship. I will give him that.
• 25:10
  And I, I don't think it's above them to dump the market to get a
• 25:13
  good position. So I'm I'm on board that they
• 25:15
  have bought. Bitcoin not Imagine for just one
• 25:18
  second all caps, bro. Let's just picture it in your
• 25:21
  mind. Ladies and gentlemen, all caps.
• 25:24
  We bought the mother effing dip, right?
• 25:29
  We bought the dip. the United States of America has added
• 25:35
  Bitcoin to their strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• 25:38
  Thank you for your attention to this matter.
• 25:41
  That be a lit tweet, Donald Trump.
• 25:43
  That be an awesome tweet. That's what's going to happen.
• 25:46
  I'm telling you that's what's going to happen.
• 25:48
  I'm with it. I'm.
• 25:49
  Super like bro like this is what's going to happen.
• 25:52
  Let's be honest though, the only way they could actually be the
• 25:54
  Bitcoin superpower of the world is basically two things.
• 25:57
  Stack a lot of Bitcoin and then eliminate capital gains and.
• 26:02
  Then we're good to go. Bitcoin Superpower of the world
• 26:04
  confirmed. I don't know about the capital.
• 26:06
  I don't know how like see that is like that is radioactive.
• 26:11
  Like, I don't know how they're going to get away with.
• 26:12
  What? Dude, the the whole
• 26:14
  administration's radioactive. Let's just, let's just drop one
• 26:17
  dude, Let's just get it over with.
• 26:19
  RIP the Band-Aid off. No, but like the problem with
• 26:21
  that is who put the pumpkin back, by the way, was that you
• 26:25
  that put the pumpkin back, that little pumpkin?
• 26:27
  That was you. I didn't put that little pumpkin
• 26:29
  back there, no, But then it looks bad now the.
• 26:33
  Now, so it was you. It was you.
• 26:37
  There we go. See now.
• 26:39
  Now it's dude, Now he's doing and now he's.
• 26:42
  Doing fashion design and now set design all right anyways
• 26:46
  anyways. OK guys, it's going to be an
• 26:48
  incredible show. We got Mauricio, the Co founder
• 26:51
  of Leaden, joining us a little bit later, joining us in about
• 26:54
  20 minutes or so. It's going to be fantastic. 700
• 26:57
  of the whole narrative is how preposterous?
• 27:00
  How is that preposterous? Could you pull up the picture
• 27:03
  please? What's the impressive?
• 27:06
  Just play the clip once again. The clip does it does it best
• 27:10
  do. You think that the president is
• 27:12
  going to? Fill the Bitcoin reserve?
• 27:14
  I don't know that. Will.
• 27:15
  Well, that's what I. Heard, 60I.
• 27:17
  Heard it 60 He's going to fill the Bitcoin reserve.
• 27:19
  You better cover. Do you think that Trump is
• 27:22
  serious about creating this Bitcoin reserve and how?
• 27:25
  How would that work? I think he is.
• 27:28
  And you know, if you think about the Louisiana Purchase,
• 27:32
  California and Alaska, we paid $40 million to buy 75% of the
• 27:37
  United States. Nobody remembers the $40
• 27:39
  million. But if you know where the
• 27:42
  money's going, you should buy the property by the future. 00
• 27:46
  and also let's let's not forget that Sailor bought.
• 27:50
  This guy. This guy wants to buy Greenland.
• 27:53
  Are you trying to tell me that he doesn't want to buy?
• 27:56
  He doesn't want to be remembered as the president that basically
• 28:00
  put like took a huge portion of the supply and and bought it for
• 28:06
  his country. Like the dude wants to buy
• 28:09
  Greenland. Like are you telling me he
• 28:11
  doesn't want to do the same for Bitcoin?
• 28:13
  And Sailor bought another 1000 coins like we like we predicted.
• 28:17
  Coins, bro. Like we did predict that, right?
• 28:21
  So like I like, it's not rocket science.
• 28:24
  It's not rocket science. It's not too much of A stress.
• 28:27
  I don't care if you guys call it preposterous or whatever, it is
• 28:30
  speculative, right? I'll give you guys that much.
• 28:33
  Right. I'll give you guys that much.
• 28:35
  But like, come on now. Like it, it's, it's not, it's
• 28:39
  not complicated to like come to this conclusion.
• 28:42
  What, like Jim Cramer's asking the same question.
• 28:44
  They're asking Sailor if he thinks this is going to happen.
• 28:48
  Sailor is saying yes. The whole administration is
• 28:51
  watching Chart A. 100 facts. Literal facts.
• 28:54
  Bro Baron is buying the dip every time.
• 28:57
  Yo Baron's the best trader of our generation.
• 29:00
  Baron. Baron has Trump's, Baron has his
• 29:02
  dad's Truth Social login and he's, a lot of those posts are
• 29:07
  coming from Baron just, you know.
• 29:10
  No, all those secret shorts and logs are coming from Baron.
• 29:17
  I'm just saying anyways, we just broke 800 live viewers on
• 29:20
  YouTube. If you guys are enjoying the
• 29:21
  show so far, make sure to smash that like button.
• 29:24
  Consider subscribing to. The We got a believer.
• 29:27
  It makes perfect sense. To the most watched Bitcoin live
• 29:30
  show on planet earth, simply Bitcoin live.
• 29:33
  Also check us out on rumble. Rumble's been popping off
• 29:36
  lately, so shout out to everybody watching us on rumble
• 29:39
  and shout out to everybody watching us on X and primal as
• 29:43
  well. Again, if you guys are enjoying
• 29:44
  the show so far, make sure to smash that like button.
• 29:48
  Consider subscribing to simply Bitcoin.
• 29:52
  We have a hell of a hell of a show lined up for you guys
• 29:54
  today. Shout out for all the zaps so
• 29:56
  far. We've got in 210 zaps on Noster.
• 30:03
  No wonder why. Oh, I can't say that.
• 30:05
  Nico says politicians could say something and do something else.
• 30:08
  Essentially, essentially, essentially salute.
• 30:11
  Everything is fine. Don't worry, Be happy.
• 30:13
  I I love, I love the Noster energy.
• 30:15
  Let's see the rumble energy. The rumble energy is is shit on
• 30:18
  Nikko energy. Nikko, stop touching your, your,
• 30:24
  your Bitcoin. The Van Baron dynasty.
• 30:27
  Hi my simply bitter family. That's my favorite.
• 30:32
  Comment This is hilarious. All right, guys, we're going to
• 30:35
  get to the next section section. We have this awesome, fantastic,
• 30:39
  amazing, wonderful, wonderful thread by Jack Mahler's, Jack
• 30:45
  Ballers, which I got to interview in El Salvador, which
• 30:48
  is pretty cool. We're going to go through that.
• 30:50
  And then we have Mauricio from Leaden joining us in about 15
• 30:55
  minutes or so. So anyways, guys, it's going to
• 30:57
  be a great show. Bunker down, smash the like
• 31:00
  button, grab a grab a seat, you know, grab a drink, relax, sit
• 31:05
  back, enjoy the show and we're going to be right back just a
• 31:08
  bit. Today's episode is brought to
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  se-ed.com store. All right everybody, let's get
• 33:47
  into today's numbers. At the time of recording, the
• 33:49
  Bitcoin price is $70,400 sats per dollar 1420 block height
• 33:56
  935,778 Realized monetary inflation .83% Market
• 34:02
  capitalization 1.41 trillion Bitcoin versus gold market cap
• 34:07
  4.7% percentage issued 95.17%. The grand scheme of things, we
• 34:14
  are just getting this party started.
• 34:16
  Anyways, I do want to show this thread that I read this morning
• 34:20
  by Jack Mahlers that is quite interesting.
• 34:23
  Maybe you guys would find some value in it.
• 34:25
  I definitely did. But anyways, Jack Mueller starts
• 34:29
  with Bitcoiners have long viewed Bitcoin as the solution to
• 34:33
  currency decline. Better gold, ultimate money.
• 34:37
  Instead, the broader market has treated it like a software
• 34:40
  stock. Painful, but this dip may be how
• 34:45
  Bitcoin stops trading like tech and starts trading like a hard
• 34:48
  asset. Bitcoin has confused everyone
• 34:51
  recently. Hasn't tracked gold.
• 34:53
  It hasn't tracked QQQQ, it has tracked software.
• 34:57
  Bitcoin and the software ETF have moved identically at times,
• 35:01
  including during this recent sell off.
• 35:04
  This explains a lot, including the recent violent sell off.
• 35:08
  Software, SAS, Cloud, High multiple growth, and MAG 7 are
• 35:12
  all taking a beating. Why?
• 35:15
  2 reasons. First, AI is changing the
• 35:18
  economic profile of software itself.
• 35:20
  Software is moving from a cash machine to a capital intensive
• 35:24
  business. Look at big tech CapEx growth
• 35:28
  recently. So he's showing 2 screenshots.
• 35:31
  Tech AI spending may approach 700 billion this year and then
• 35:36
  another another Yi watering CapEx number.
• 35:40
  Amazon sees 2026 CapEx, about 200 billion and let's keep going
• 35:46
  with the thread. So it goes on to say, second,
• 35:49
  the US is structurally redirecting capital from tech
• 35:53
  buybacks plus high multiples and toward reshoring plus domestic
• 35:57
  infrastructure. Big Tech is no longer returning
• 36:01
  cash to shareholders. It's deploying existing and
• 36:04
  future cash into data centers, power, etcetera.
• 36:08
  When an asset class goes from a cash machine to a capital sync,
• 36:13
  the multiple has to change. That's why even the best
• 36:17
  software companies can trade at their lowest valuations ever.
• 36:21
  The category premium is gone. Amazon is trading at its lowest
• 36:25
  valuation ever. Regime shift.
• 36:29
  So as you can see what Jack was pointing out, because of the
• 36:34
  above capital's responding rationally, liquidity is
• 36:38
  rotating out of software, buyback, dependent equities,
• 36:41
  momentum and leverage and into CapEx, energy, industrials,
• 36:46
  infrastructure and the real economy.
• 36:48
  We are living through a regime change or regime shift.
• 36:53
  These 4 old economy stock sectors should be a buy after
• 36:57
  the market's anti AI meltdown, analysts say.
• 37:01
  Now back to Bitcoin, what all you guys have been waiting for.
• 37:04
  Bitcoin has been pulled into this rotation because it shares
• 37:08
  the same investor base for now. Same holders, same liquidity,
• 37:12
  same for selling dynamics. It's trading like software
• 37:16
  because over the last decade the market has classified it as
• 37:20
  software. Bitcoin fundamentally doesn't
• 37:22
  need what software needs. It doesn't need margins,
• 37:26
  earnings, buybacks, CapEx, refinancing.
• 37:29
  Software needs that companies needs that the hardest neutral
• 37:33
  money in human history does not. The market size sized Bitcoin up
• 37:38
  wrong. We're early.
• 37:39
  So that is Jack Mahler's analysis of you know why number
• 37:43
  go down. As painful as this draw down has
• 37:46
  been, it may be necessary, even constructive for Bitcoin if this
• 37:50
  cycle washes out highly leveraged short term risk on
• 37:54
  software capital. What remains is a base of long
• 37:57
  term money, long term hard money Hodlers.
• 38:00
  That's how we moved on from this chapter.
• 38:03
  By the fucking dip I mean I guess so I I will say this.
• 38:19
  Yeah, All right. Sorry.
• 38:20
  Keep going. Sorry.
• 38:24
  I never finished fourth grade. Just kidding.
• 38:29
  I couldn't agree more with that take.
• 38:31
  Go. Continue.
• 38:31
  Sorry. You should read things from now
• 38:33
  on up. I'm.
• 38:34
  Just I just might have to. Bro, how can you not read?
• 38:40
  It's crazy. All right, go, go.
• 38:43
  Let's, let's talk about. Let's not talk about your bad
• 38:46
  reading skills. Let's let's talk.
• 38:48
  About the let's. Talk about that thread dude.
• 38:54
  OK. So in all seriousness, look, I,
• 39:01
  I just, it's unfortunate that Bitcoin is kind of it, it's
• 39:08
  correlated to traditional assets that used to not always be the
• 39:13
  case before. Back in the day, Bitcoin was an
• 39:17
  uncorrelated asset and it was, it was I would say a lot funner
• 39:21
  back then. The volatility was a lot
• 39:23
  greater, but it didn't go hand in hand with liquidity.
• 39:27
  It didn't go hand in hand with the stock market.
• 39:30
  It didn't go hand in hand with, you know, the Federal Reserve's
• 39:34
  like policy. It didn't go hand in hand with
• 39:36
  the regulatory environment because Bitcoin has gotten so
• 39:40
  big. It kind of goes hand in hand
• 39:42
  with all these things. I think the game fundamentally
• 39:45
  changed with the introduction of the ETFs.
• 39:47
  Now, where I perhaps disagree with Mahler's is and perhaps
• 39:54
  Opti disagrees with me on this one, but I think that.
• 40:00
  I think Bitcoin is acting, I think Bitcoin is acting like
• 40:04
  it's in a traditional four year cycle.
• 40:07
  That's what I think. And we peaked in October and
• 40:12
  then we have, you know, 10 months to a year of a
• 40:15
  traditional bear market. And then number go up starts
• 40:20
  happening again as we approach the next halving and then the
• 40:23
  next halving causes a supply shock and then the price goes up
• 40:27
  like that's what I think is happening.
• 40:29
  I think that there was a little bit of a front run this cycle
• 40:32
  because of the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• 40:35
  So we did have an all time high before the halving and I think
• 40:41
  that potentially might have might have accelerated a lot of
• 40:49
  the gains earlier into the cycle rather than later into the cycle
• 40:54
  as traditionally has happened. But I am I'm 100% still believer
• 41:00
  in the four year cycle until that is fundamentally broken and
• 41:04
  it and it still hasn't broken. I think what did change a little
• 41:09
  bit was the kind of like the price action of Bitcoin.
• 41:12
  And I think that changed again because of the introduction of
• 41:15
  the ETFs. And now that kind of Wall Street
• 41:17
  is involved in the asset. There's a correlation like at
• 41:21
  Jack Mahler's did point that out.
• 41:23
  And I do agree with him then him there that it is correlated.
• 41:26
  It does behave like this, this this type of tech stock, right?
• 41:31
  That's how the market is seeing it, even though it's not.
• 41:34
  And I do agree with Mahler's there as well.
• 41:36
  Like, it is, it's it, it's, it's, you know, the best neutral
• 41:40
  money the world has ever seen. And that's what it is.
• 41:44
  It's it doesn't, it isn't a tech stock whatsoever.
• 41:47
  It doesn't, it's not a company, right.
• 41:50
  So yeah, I mean, but I remember, you know, back in the early
• 41:55
  days, Opti, back in the 2017 era, like Bitcoin would just
• 41:58
  pump on fake news like back in the day it was.
• 42:01
  Like it was good time it. Was crazy like that, you know,
• 42:04
  and it that that just isn't the case anymore.
• 42:06
  It's a little bit different. It's it's kind of grown up, you
• 42:09
  know, bit bitcoins grown up a little bit, right.
• 42:12
  But I think that the world is going to come to realize that
• 42:16
  Bitcoin is different. And I think one of the biggest
• 42:18
  catalysts is going to be to kind of connect this with what we
• 42:23
  were talking about during the intros during the intro segment
• 42:26
  a little bit. One of the biggest catalysts is
• 42:28
  going to be the one of the biggest catalysts is going to be
• 42:34
  the United States government announcing that it is actively
• 42:38
  accumulating Bitcoin and adding it to the strategic Bitcoin
• 42:42
  Reserve. I think that catalyst it, people
• 42:45
  are sleeping on it. People are not seeing it.
• 42:47
  One of the things that I've noticed this cycle as well is
• 42:50
  there was so much certainty in 2025.
• 42:53
  Now there's a lot of uncertainty, like people don't
• 42:57
  know with 100% conviction that Bitcoin is going to even reach
• 43:01
  all time highs. Like there's this theory that's
• 43:05
  going around basically like look like the Ponzi is over.
• 43:08
  You know, Bitcoin hasn't reached all time highs with gold like
• 43:13
  these, Mark, there's no more buyers to push Bitcoin to higher
• 43:17
  and higher prices, right? That isn't the case anymore.
• 43:22
  I think that the moment that that announcement gets made, and
• 43:25
  I'm pretty confident that announcement gets made and it's
• 43:28
  going to happen when you least expect it, I think it's it's
• 43:34
  going to catch everybody by surprise.
• 43:36
  And I think Bitcoin is just, it's, it's just going to leave
• 43:41
  everybody you know behind that hasn't bought spot Bitcoin or
• 43:47
  exposure to Bitcoin. And this thing's going to take
• 43:50
  off like like we've never seen before.
• 43:53
  And that theory by the way, of like, oh, the market cap is so
• 43:56
  big. So you can't have these, you
• 43:58
  can't have this crazy volatility.
• 44:00
  Silver and gold just proved that isn't true, right?
• 44:05
  Gold is an enormous asset and it moves 60% in a year, right?
• 44:10
  And gold, what has a $30 trillion market cap something,
• 44:14
  it's something absurd. Silver.
• 44:16
  I haven't checked in the last couple of days.
• 44:18
  Silver. Silver had a huge market cap and
• 44:20
  it moved it, it moved it, it, it, it made huge moves, right?
• 44:26
  So this kind of narrative that, oh, Bitcoin is so big that it
• 44:30
  can't move, I think I'm calling bullshit.
• 44:33
  I all I think is that it needs. A 34 trillion.
• 44:36
  It needs a catalyst. I told you guys what that
• 44:39
  catalyst would be. It would be legitimization of
• 44:43
  Bitcoin. It would it would in the eyes of
• 44:45
  the world, Bitcoin would be on par with gold if the United
• 44:48
  States government makes that type of announcement.
• 44:50
  And I tell you guys, like the reason that Bitcoin wins is
• 44:54
  because people want to benefit from number go up and Trump is a
• 44:58
  human being and the Trump cabinet, they're human beings
• 45:01
  like every everybody else. And guess what?
• 45:03
  They want to get wealthier like everybody else.
• 45:06
  Anybody who's telling you that, you know, they don't want to get
• 45:09
  wealthier for the future, you know, unless they're doing it
• 45:13
  for like religious and moral reasons, you know, OK, I
• 45:16
  understand that. But like Trump is the
• 45:18
  businessman, like, you know, he's a reason.
• 45:20
  There's a reason he's a billionaire, right?
• 45:23
  You know, and I think that this is, you know, a, a, a perfect
• 45:27
  example of he's looking at this and he has the power of the
• 45:31
  presidency and he thinks to himself, OK, you know, this is a
• 45:34
  good opportunity to obviously put America first.
• 45:37
  I said it. And obviously, you know, benefit
• 45:40
  his family simultaneously, right.
• 45:42
  It's kind of that alignment of incentives that we always talk
• 45:45
  about on Simply Bitcoin. So anyways, that's my take on
• 45:50
  this. Opti.
• 45:51
  Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then we got Mauricio on the
• 45:53
  wings. Who's gonna join us?
• 45:54
  Yeah, so dude, see, it's still doing it.
• 45:58
  Whatever. I actually probably agree with
• 46:01
  Jack Mahler's on this and it, it might sound bad the way that I
• 46:07
  view it, I'm going to, I'm going to put it as nicely as possible,
• 46:11
  but I do fundamentally believe, like I've been saying it for a
• 46:14
  while, there is a quote UN quote new investor in the market.
• 46:17
  They're the ones with all the capital.
• 46:19
  Of course. These are the people coming from
• 46:20
  Wall Street. These are the ETF buyers.
• 46:22
  These are the nation states. These are the the huge asset
• 46:26
  managers that for better worse still use, I don't know,
• 46:29
  traditional kind of lenses into the market.
• 46:32
  And so they, you know, they use what they're used to to try to
• 46:36
  explain what this new thing is, which is Bitcoin.
• 46:39
  And I haven't actually heard a lot of people say this idea
• 46:42
  about Bitcoin being related more to like the software ETF like
• 46:46
  Jack Mullins was saying, but it does make sense.
• 46:48
  We have been seeing Bitcoin be treated like this high beta tech
• 46:52
  play. And I think that makes sense
• 46:54
  when you understand just a lot of the capital coming in are
• 46:58
  these Wall Street types? Are these these traditional suit
• 47:00
  coiners, if you will? And that's how they look at
• 47:02
  this. They don't really understand
• 47:04
  Bitcoin in the way that we do or maybe not necessarily even
• 47:07
  understand it. They don't they don't see
• 47:09
  Bitcoin in the same lens that we do.
• 47:12
  And that might be the fundamental difference here.
• 47:14
  Whereas like for us, we're like Bitcoin's the finish line.
• 47:17
  It is the money and they're like, it's just a, it's just a
• 47:21
  high tech, you know, play here and and therefore that's why
• 47:24
  it's been treated like this. So I do agree that it's going to
• 47:27
  break at certain point. Guys, we have a very special
• 47:29
  guest joining us on the show today.
• 47:31
  We have the Co founder of lead in.
• 47:34
  We have Mauricio joining us on the show.
• 47:36
  We're going to bring him we're going to bring him up right
• 47:38
  after the break and we're going to talk about all things lead in
• 47:41
  and we got a special video that we created for you guys.
• 47:45
  We're really excited to share it.
• 47:46
  We're going to be right back in just a little bit.
• 47:50
  Oh, I pressed the wrong button. Mauricio joined us instead.
• 47:53
  Anyways, we're going to be right back.
• 47:57
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Leaden, the leader
• 48:00
  in Bitcoin Back loans. Unlock the liquidity in your
• 48:03
  Bitcoin without having to sell your Bitcoin.
• 48:06
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• 48:10
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• 48:16
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• 48:33
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  rely on local infrastructure. Iridium has 77 satellites in
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• 49:12
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• 49:33
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• 49:38
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Big Key.
• 49:40
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  hardware wallets by now. Complex setups, clumsy
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• 49:50
  forgotten. Bit Key fixes that.
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  Square and Cash Out. It packs a cryptographic
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  One of the best inventions of 2024.
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  Get 20% off at bitkey dot world. That's BITKEY dot world with the
• 50:22
  code simply. All right, everybody, we're
• 50:29
  back. And of course, we got our boy
• 50:31
  Mauricio joining us in the house today.
• 50:34
  Mauricio, it was great to see you in El Salvador.
• 50:36
  Man, that was fantastic. Yeah.
• 50:38
  Always great to see you, man. That was really fun and excited
• 50:41
  to present the little project we worked on down there.
• 50:45
  Absolutely. I'm super excited to to show off
• 50:48
  this video to you guys today. And we might switch the show to
• 50:52
  Spanish only, but I think it's a good representation of the fact
• 50:57
  that Leaden is international, right?
• 50:59
  And it has a low barrier to entry.
• 51:01
  And again, just because you're from a specific country doesn't
• 51:06
  mean that you can't get access or you can't tap into the wealth
• 51:09
  of your Bitcoin, right? And that's what, you know, the,
• 51:12
  the, the products that Leaden offers, right?
• 51:14
  So we're really excited to tell this story.
• 51:17
  I know this person individually and just watching him build up
• 51:20
  his business, you know, again, it, it's like, kind of like a, a
• 51:25
  miracle story. So many of these miracle stories
• 51:27
  happening in El Salvador and I'm so glad that you know Mauricio
• 51:33
  was was able to help this particular individual build up
• 51:36
  their business and you see these stories happening all over the
• 51:39
  place right it's incredible to see so anyways no more delay I'm
• 51:42
  going to play you guys the video then we'll talk about it we're.
• 51:53
  Going to be right back in a bit. ES.
• 52:46
  The. E.
• 53:19
  All right, so I just got to say Marisa, you could have also been
• 53:23
  a male model as well, other than being the founder of one of the
• 53:31
  most successful companies in the Bitcoin industry with the
• 53:34
  glasses and the that you're in shape, bro.
• 53:37
  I I got to I got to find out who your trainer is.
• 53:40
  But in all seriousness, man, that that it was so cool.
• 53:44
  It was so cool to see that. And for anyone who doesn't know
• 53:48
  bit driver is this kind of like, it's just like Uber in El
• 53:53
  Salvador, essentially. So you, you, you mess, you send
• 53:57
  Napo a message. There's this, there's this chat,
• 53:59
  you send them a message and then they send you a, a, a driver to
• 54:03
  come pick you up and you pay in Bitcoin.
• 54:06
  It's like, it's super, super cool.
• 54:08
  The first time Opti told me about it, like I couldn't
• 54:11
  believe it existed, you know, and like, it's, it's hilarious
• 54:14
  because Napo puts like memes in the chat when you like, tell him
• 54:17
  like, Hey, could you pick me up at a certain time And he'll put
• 54:19
  like memes. It's like super.
• 54:21
  It's like, it's like Uber and Bitcoin had a baby in El
• 54:25
  Salvador. That's what bit bit driver is
• 54:27
  it's, it's fantastic. And again, I think Napo found
• 54:31
  himself in the situation that a lot of us find ourselves, you
• 54:35
  know, if if you're a, a, a, a business owner in the Bitcoin
• 54:39
  space where hey, perhaps you need some capital to grow your
• 54:43
  business. In the case of Napol, it's to
• 54:45
  expand his fleet of cars, obviously, and this is where he
• 54:50
  tapped into Leaden's product to do just that.
• 54:54
  And there was a fantastic marketing opportunity because
• 54:57
  now if you're around the streets of El Salvador, you will see a
• 55:01
  Leaden car driving around, which is super, super cool.
• 55:05
  So it was awesome to get to film that, Mauricio, you know, and
• 55:10
  then the success story of Napol is so inspiring.
• 55:14
  And then again, using your product to again grow his
• 55:17
  business. And we're also going to be
• 55:20
  telling a very interesting story around the Bitcoin conference as
• 55:24
  well. Another, another, another
• 55:27
  example. And they're, they're all unique.
• 55:30
  They're all very interesting. But I'm going to hand it off to
• 55:33
  you. I'm going to hand it off to you,
• 55:34
  Mauricio, 'cause that was super fun, man.
• 55:36
  That whole weekend was super, super fun.
• 55:38
  No, 100%. And yeah, the, the, the
• 55:41
  opportunity came about cause I've, I had the luck of meeting
• 55:44
  Apple a few times in person at these conferences.
• 55:46
  And you know, I used the driver myself several times while I was
• 55:50
  in El Salvador. And when he came to us or came
• 55:53
  to me and said, listen, I'm, I want to grow my fleet.
• 55:55
  I don't want to sell my Bitcoin. I want to learn more about your
• 55:57
  letter loans. I basically walked him through
• 55:59
  the product, how he could use it and he said I want to use it to
• 56:02
  expand my fleet. And when he said that I, I, I
• 56:05
  basically said we would love to work with you.
• 56:08
  As we've done in some other cases where, for example, people
• 56:11
  or Bitcoiners with very interesting businesses come to
• 56:13
  us for financing. Sometimes we see an opportunity
• 56:15
  to do more with them than just provide the financing.
• 56:17
  Sometimes we can do some type of marketing partnership or joint
• 56:20
  messaging or joint education, because a lot of times
• 56:23
  Bitcoiners that we service can be potential clients of them and
• 56:27
  vice versa. So the same opportunity came
• 56:29
  about with Napo and I thought, man, how cool would it be to
• 56:32
  have El Salvador's, you know, Bitcoin driving service, you
• 56:36
  know, promote Latin and tell people that our loans exist and
• 56:38
  that they're using our loans to grow their business.
• 56:40
  How inspiring would that be? And he, he was based, he was all
• 56:43
  for it. So we work to put in these
• 56:46
  special headrests that were we made them in El Salvador.
• 56:48
  By the way, everything about this campaign was built and made
• 56:51
  and designed and El Salvador produced in El Salvador.
• 56:53
  And so again, we, we not only does our financing help create
• 56:57
  more jobs in El Salvador by getting him more cars and
• 57:00
  providing a better service leading to more tourism, but
• 57:03
  also by doing some, you know, the production and the
• 57:06
  manufacturing call it, of any of these local pieces in El
• 57:09
  Salvador. The campaign went on to do much
• 57:11
  more, right. We, we created the opportunities
• 57:13
  to build the headrest to deploy the, the decal even the sheep
• 57:17
  that we built to unveil the car was also produced in El
• 57:20
  Salvador. So it's AI think it's a great
• 57:22
  story and it shows how much more than just, you know, Internet
• 57:27
  money Bitcoin can be and the the doors that it can open.
• 57:30
  I think, you know, the, the other point that I'd like to
• 57:33
  make, I think in the context of of these recent moves that we
• 57:36
  can get into is when you're using these products, you have
• 57:39
  to size them properly. You have to plant properly when
• 57:42
  you're using these products. That'll ensure that when rights
• 57:45
  action like what we had this weekend comes in and, and
• 57:48
  materializes, you have a plan and you can respond and your
• 57:51
  loan can basically continue to be healthy while price recovers.
• 57:55
  I'm happy to say that Napo had, you know, Napo and others, but
• 57:58
  many, many more, I would say the vast, vast, vast majority of all
• 58:01
  of our letting clients, you know, had a plan responded.
• 58:05
  It was, you know, I, I, I was very, very happy to see both the
• 58:08
  tech that we built helping people with by allowing for
• 58:11
  things or facilitating things like auto top up partial
• 58:14
  repayments, etcetera. So it's really great to see how
• 58:17
  many of our clients had plans for this type of volatility and
• 58:21
  the resilience of the book, the stability of the platform.
• 58:24
  You know, this is just one more episode for us, but I think it's
• 58:27
  important again, when you take these products, I'm sure it's in
• 58:29
  everybody's minds right now and you see episodes like this.
• 58:33
  Well, you should plan for a Bitcoin to be volatile that that
• 58:37
  is part of of, you know, the market that we're in.
• 58:40
  And as long as you have that plan, you're going to be fine
• 58:42
  and you're going to come out together.
• 58:43
  I the other side really happy. But it's important that you have
• 58:45
  that plan. I think this week demonstrates
• 58:48
  A, how important it is to have a Plan B, how important it is to
• 58:50
  choose a reliable platform, a consistent platform that helps
• 58:54
  you react in times of need. So happy to get more into that.
• 58:57
  But I think just to close on Napo, I'm incredibly happy how
• 59:03
  this turned out. I hope that this is the first of
• 59:05
  many. It was a huge hit.
• 59:07
  You know, even Peter Schiff got picked up by one of his cars and
• 59:11
  tweeted on, tweeted about the headrest.
• 59:13
  So it was, I think this was great to put the spotlight on
• 59:16
  him. And yeah, I mean, this is a
• 59:19
  story about Bitcoiners using Bitcoin to enhance their lives,
• 59:23
  and I think there was no better example than than Apple.
• 59:25
  Dude, so you, you, you, you mentioned the auto top feature,
• 59:30
  which I used it for the first time and it's so effing bad ass,
• 59:36
  right 'cause the volatility happens right?
• 59:39
  The volatility happens and you're like, OK, And then I, I
• 59:44
  think it's, and Mauricio, I'm sure you see this 'cause I think
• 59:48
  Bitcoiners by their nature or like very conservative in terms
• 59:52
  of like the way they approach the these loans.
• 59:57
  And like for me, like I was totally fine, but I was like,
• 1:00:02
  OK, but you know, we did, you know, we did drop like 1520% of
• 1:00:06
  the day. So like I, I, if anything, I
• 1:00:09
  said too much, but like I, it's really cool 'cause there's this,
• 1:00:13
  there's this transaction account, right?
• 1:00:15
  And I got to experiment with all of this, like over the weekend.
• 1:00:18
  It was, it was, it was, it was a great time.
• 1:00:20
  I was resisting not to text Maudicio, but basically so
• 1:00:27
  obviously with a Bitcoin collateralized loans, you have
• 1:00:30
  to use them responsibly, which we've always been telling you
• 1:00:32
  guys for the longest time. But if you use them responsibly,
• 1:00:34
  they're a great tool, right, to really kind of tap into your
• 1:00:39
  Bitcoin without having to sell it.
• 1:00:41
  But obviously in times of volatility, you obviously want
• 1:00:46
  to maintain the LTV in, you know, in a, in a healthy ratio,
• 1:00:50
  so at a healthy percentage, so to speak, right.
• 1:00:53
  So obviously over the weekend, you know, the volatility
• 1:00:55
  happens, right? And one of the products that you
• 1:00:58
  guys offer, which is really cool, is instead of just sending
• 1:01:01
  more Bitcoin for it to be collateralized, what you do is
• 1:01:05
  you send it into a transaction account.
• 1:01:07
  And if the LTV reaches a certain level, the transaction account
• 1:01:12
  automatically transfers that Bitcoin to collateralize the
• 1:01:17
  Bitcoin even more. You don't even have to do
• 1:01:19
  anything. And at the same time, let's say,
• 1:01:22
  you know, the market stabilizes or starts going back up again,
• 1:01:26
  you can just withdraw the Bitcoin out of the transaction
• 1:01:29
  account whenever you want as well.
• 1:01:31
  So it's a really, really cool feature.
• 1:01:33
  I totally didn't do that. I fat fingered and just put a
• 1:01:36
  bunch of collateral into the loan just 'cause I'm, I'm like
• 1:01:40
  that, but I, I, I played around with the transaction account,
• 1:01:45
  you know, just to kind of just to see how it worked and how
• 1:01:48
  interesting it was. And it's super, super cool.
• 1:01:51
  And again, I could tell that it's a product that you guys
• 1:01:53
  designed specifically for moments like these because you
• 1:01:57
  know that Bitcoiners don't fully want to give up that custody
• 1:02:02
  because once it's in the loan, obviously it needs to hit a
• 1:02:04
  specific price for for you, for you to be able to redeem it.
• 1:02:09
  But at the same time, it's like, what if you want to go away for
• 1:02:11
  a weekend? What if you're traveling for a
• 1:02:14
  month and you like take off your cell phone and you're like, OK,
• 1:02:17
  but obviously, you know, I don't want my loan to be at risk, but
• 1:02:21
  at the same time, I don't want to give up full custody of my
• 1:02:23
  Bitcoin. What do I do?
• 1:02:24
  This is where the transaction account comes into place.
• 1:02:27
  And again, first time, first, first weekend I personally
• 1:02:31
  experienced using it and it was super, super badass.
• 1:02:33
  It was really cool and I I want to pat myself on the back a
• 1:02:36
  little bit because I didn't text Mauricio to, to, to ask for
• 1:02:43
  advice and to hand hold me through the process.
• 1:02:45
  So. Hey, no, I mean it.
• 1:02:47
  I love it when when people have the right plan and they know
• 1:02:50
  what to do and and they came in ready some very interesting
• 1:02:54
  stats from auto top up because this was I believe one of the
• 1:02:56
  first major drops since the features been built.
• 1:02:59
  We had 4600 loans with auto top up on protecting $130 million
• 1:03:06
  worth of principal which which was protected.
• 1:03:08
  There was only I think it was less than 5% of cases where auto
• 1:03:12
  top up balances were set. But the balance on the auto top
• 1:03:15
  up was just basically it was it was not enough to support the
• 1:03:18
  down move. But in the vast majority of the
• 1:03:20
  cases where the where the feature was used correctly and
• 1:03:22
  size correctly, it basically protected, you know, 95% plus of
• 1:03:26
  people over $130 million worth of loans, what were basically
• 1:03:30
  topped up by auto top up. And another very again, just to
• 1:03:34
  show you the scale of the type of response we get from our
• 1:03:38
  clients, we have 44,000 lone pop up events that that brought in
• 1:03:43
  over over 4000 Bitcoin of extra Bitcoin to collateralize, let
• 1:03:46
  alone so it it was it was really just these are are every time
• 1:03:53
  these events happen, they really test the system, right?
• 1:03:55
  We had perfect uptime. Everything basically works
• 1:03:58
  smoothly as intended, which is, you know, how we've made our
• 1:04:01
  name is by being resilient, consistent and reliable during
• 1:04:05
  these types of events. That is really what Ledens DNA
• 1:04:10
  is about and and even in the other part is the other side of
• 1:04:15
  that that you don't see is like sure, the price is dropping,
• 1:04:17
  which makes people that have open loans have to basically
• 1:04:21
  respond and make sure that loans are kept healthy.
• 1:04:23
  But on the other side and other other people were seeing it as a
• 1:04:25
  debt buying opportunity. So we had one of our biggest
• 1:04:28
  weeks in terms of loan originations.
• 1:04:30
  At the same time we had over, we've had over 65,000,000 loans
• 1:04:34
  funded since Jan 28th, which is again, there's just transactions
• 1:04:38
  from all sides, right? There's people protecting loans
• 1:04:40
  as the price drops, there's people using the price drop to
• 1:04:42
  come in, take new positions. So really this is where you want
• 1:04:45
  to be all hands on deck and and dialed in.
• 1:04:48
  And that's exactly, you know, what, what we have done here in
• 1:04:51
  Lenin and, and seeing, seeing the response from our clients
• 1:04:55
  and the fact that the, the book has behaved the way it has and,
• 1:04:59
  and our clients have responded the way they have it, It really
• 1:05:01
  makes us, it reassures us that these tools that we're building
• 1:05:05
  are helping and that people are using them the way they have to
• 1:05:08
  be used. And that just is exactly what
• 1:05:11
  what we're here for. So we just, we want to continue
• 1:05:13
  building things like auto top up, giving people that, that,
• 1:05:18
  that, that knowledge or basically letting people know
• 1:05:22
  and reassure them every single time that no matter what the
• 1:05:25
  market conditions are, we will be here for you.
• 1:05:27
  And, and we did that one more time.
• 1:05:28
  So I'm immensely proud of the team.
• 1:05:30
  I'm immensely proud of our clients.
• 1:05:32
  And, and I think this is the type of event where once you see
• 1:05:36
  it, you say you have a loan and you when you live through this
• 1:05:40
  and everything worked the way it should, it just reassures you
• 1:05:42
  even more that you know this is, that was a sound decision.
• 1:05:47
  Yeah, and, and I agree, man. And again, as a as a, as a
• 1:05:52
  customer myself and, and just getting to know your products
• 1:05:55
  thoroughly, which by the way, save my ass over the weekend.
• 1:05:58
  I'll get to that story in a second.
• 1:06:02
  But you know, I can see that you guys have designed these
• 1:06:07
  products with Bitcoiners in mind.
• 1:06:09
  I could see it. Not only can I see it, I've I'm,
• 1:06:12
  I'm, I've experienced it right from the bottom to the top, and
• 1:06:16
  in the beginning I was texting Maudicio like crazy.
• 1:06:19
  I resisted this time and I figured it out.
• 1:06:22
  I'm smart, I guess, But and you know, he should have opt.
• 1:06:29
  He should have cut to himself, but you know it it I could tell
• 1:06:35
  that it's designed for user experience, specifically a
• 1:06:39
  bitcoiners user experience. Now one of the things I want to
• 1:06:43
  tell you guys this story cause Marisa was there with me is I, I
• 1:06:48
  basically had to moderate a panel off the cuff and it was A
• 1:06:53
  and it was a panel relating to the Bitcoin backed loans
• 1:06:58
  industry. I had no preparation and I had
• 1:07:01
  to just do it off the top of my Dome and I think I did pretty
• 1:07:04
  well. But I have some of those
• 1:07:05
  questions from from that panel that I enjoyed.
• 1:07:09
  But at the same time, it was it was it was an adrenaline rush.
• 1:07:14
  Mauricio, when when these types of you know, when, when this
• 1:07:17
  type of volatility happens, right?
• 1:07:20
  What are you seeing on your side the most?
• 1:07:22
  Like what like on your end from your from your data, from your
• 1:07:27
  perspective, like what how are bitcoiners treating this?
• 1:07:30
  Because there is one of the things, one of the things from
• 1:07:32
  your presentation that you did on the mainstage that stuck out
• 1:07:36
  to me the most, right. First of all, it was epic cause
• 1:07:39
  Mauricio wore the Maduro Nike hoodie on stage.
• 1:07:44
  So like the, the Opti shaking his head in approval.
• 1:07:47
  So basically the, the Nike hood. Yeah, it was, it was, it was.
• 1:07:54
  But basically the the hoodie that Maduro was wearing right in
• 1:07:58
  the famous picture like this, Marisha went on stage and he did
• 1:08:01
  his whole presentation in that exact same hoodie.
• 1:08:04
  I don't know where you found it but you did the presentation in
• 1:08:06
  the exact same hoodie and there is 2 moments in that
• 1:08:09
  presentation that stuck out to me.
• 1:08:11
  First before the presentation, me and Marisa we, we talk a lot.
• 1:08:16
  Like we talk excessively and I think it's like a cultural
• 1:08:18
  thing. I have no idea but we will
• 1:08:20
  literally talk for like 2 hours straight non-stop.
• 1:08:24
  And I remember we were like he was like about to go on stage
• 1:08:28
  and like me and Marisa were like sitting next to each other.
• 1:08:30
  And I remember like Marisa wasn't being very talkative and
• 1:08:33
  I was like what's going on here? So he goes on stage, crushes the
• 1:08:36
  presentation and one of the parts is Marisa's on stage, on
• 1:08:40
  stage with the Nicolas Maduro like Nike hoodie.
• 1:08:45
  And behind it, it says Bitcoin is the king pristine collateral
• 1:08:50
  like all black, all black and white.
• 1:08:53
  It was bad ass. But there was another part of
• 1:08:55
  that presentation that really stuck out to me.
• 1:08:57
  And it was actually somebody who took out a loan back in 2020,
• 1:09:02
  right? And you put you put the graphic
• 1:09:05
  up and it was really, really interesting.
• 1:09:08
  So you take a look at this loan and basically it started with a
• 1:09:12
  lot of Bitcoin as collateral, right?
• 1:09:14
  Obviously, you would think so. And then you see basically as
• 1:09:19
  the price of Bitcoin goes up, you see the amount of Bitcoin
• 1:09:23
  posted as collateral go down. But then the bear market hits.
• 1:09:27
  And then you see the Bitcoin as collateral go up a little bit,
• 1:09:32
  but then another bull market hits and then you see the amount
• 1:09:34
  of Bitcoin posted as collateral go down to lower levels than the
• 1:09:41
  previous all time high of the previous bull market.
• 1:09:45
  It was, it was a very kind of like eye opening graph and stuff
• 1:09:49
  like that. And to me, I'm looking at this
• 1:09:52
  and I'm like, this is the, This is why it is called pristine
• 1:09:56
  collateral. This is why it's called, you
• 1:09:59
  know, the king of collateral because you can do stuff like
• 1:10:03
  that where it's obviously a win for the lender, it's a win for
• 1:10:08
  the lende. But what I will have to tell
• 1:10:11
  everybody, because I, I have seen a lot of this on X, which
• 1:10:14
  is a lot of people are like, basically saying stuff like, you
• 1:10:17
  know, like you have to be careful with the loans and stuff
• 1:10:21
  like that. Look, if you're irresponsible,
• 1:10:24
  if you're putting 100% of your stack into a loan, then you're
• 1:10:28
  not, in my opinion, you're not doing this properly, like you're
• 1:10:32
  not doing this responsibly. You're taking leverage that you
• 1:10:36
  can afford. If these types of drawdowns make
• 1:10:39
  you feel uncomfortable regarding your your Bitcoin loans, you
• 1:10:44
  took out too much. Right.
• 1:10:47
  If. These types of drawdowns make
• 1:10:49
  you feel like, oh, I should probably top top it up, then
• 1:10:56
  you're fine, right? So it, it's all like money's
• 1:10:59
  relative, right? So, you know, one Bitcoin to
• 1:11:02
  somebody is a lot, 100 Bitcoin to somebody perhaps is a little.
• 1:11:06
  So it's all very, very specific to your type, to your situation.
• 1:11:10
  But I promise you that if you've been doing this responsibly and
• 1:11:14
  my rule of thumb, and I think I've said this the last time
• 1:11:17
  Edisa came on the show is you should always be prepared for 70
• 1:11:22
  to 75% drawdown. If you cannot survive a 70 to
• 1:11:27
  75% draw down in your loan, then I think you're doing it
• 1:11:31
  irresponsibly. That's my personal opinion,
• 1:11:33
  Mauricio, Perhaps you disagree with me because I saw a lot of
• 1:11:36
  people talking, I'll of, you know, like, hey, you shouldn't
• 1:11:40
  take out loans. And my, my in personal
• 1:11:43
  interpretation of this, Mauricio, not just because of
• 1:11:46
  course you're on the show and we're friends as a user myself
• 1:11:51
  is it is a tool that if you use properly can help you on your
• 1:11:57
  Bitcoin journey tremendously. But as any tool, right, if you
• 1:12:01
  use it irresponsibly, obviously you know you can end up with a
• 1:12:06
  negative outcome, right? So that's my take on all that
• 1:12:09
  Maricio. Would love to hear your
• 1:12:10
  thoughts. And now I know why Maricio
• 1:12:14
  didn't want to talk to me before he went on to do his
• 1:12:16
  presentation is because he was slightly nervous.
• 1:12:19
  But after the presentation, he absolutely crushed it.
• 1:12:22
  Like he crushed it like he could have done this with his eyes
• 1:12:25
  closed, but that's why he didn't want to talk to me.
• 1:12:28
  Anyway, Maricio stage. Is yours bro.
• 1:12:31
  Listen, I think everything you said, it makes complete sense to
• 1:12:34
  me, I think to talk a little bit about the sizing of the loan, to
• 1:12:39
  your point about it being relative, you should have, you
• 1:12:42
  should be prepared when you're taking these loans to support at
• 1:12:45
  least the sort of 50% drought on 70 percent, 80% to be very
• 1:12:49
  conservative on the conservative side.
• 1:12:51
  But again, Bitcoin is a volatile asset.
• 1:12:54
  We should not try to deny that or change that.
• 1:12:57
  We should embrace that and prepare for that.
• 1:13:00
  Like you said, a loan is just like any other tool, right?
• 1:13:02
  Like a chainsaw could use, can be used to cut down a tree super
• 1:13:05
  fast, but you can also use a chainsaw to do a lot of other
• 1:13:08
  bad things. Somebody could cut their arm
• 1:13:09
  off. That's not to say chainsaws are
• 1:13:11
  bad. And you should never use a
• 1:13:12
  chainsaw, right? Like if you use it properly and
• 1:13:15
  you take the right steps and you do the right planning, it helps
• 1:13:17
  you move much faster. But it's just like any other
• 1:13:20
  tool, if not used correctly, it could potentially damage you.
• 1:13:23
  Again, it's not to say that you should not use the tool is that
• 1:13:26
  you should basically learn and plan so you could use it
• 1:13:29
  properly to make you complete your work or your goals faster.
• 1:13:32
  So I think that point, I fully echo that.
• 1:13:35
  I think one of the most important things for us at Lenin
• 1:13:38
  when anybody comes in new considering these products is to
• 1:13:41
  help them plan. And I actually think that's why
• 1:13:43
  our book performs a lot better in moments like this, because
• 1:13:46
  people come in eyes wide open, right?
• 1:13:48
  When you take a loan at Lenin, even the loan itself in the
• 1:13:51
  application page will tell you when your 70% threshold is, when
• 1:13:55
  your 80% threshold is, when you're making a partial
• 1:13:57
  repayment at Lenin using stablecoins, we'll show you what
• 1:14:01
  that partial repayment does to the liquidation price, right?
• 1:14:04
  So because we're always, again, we're, we understand and we know
• 1:14:08
  that people coming to Lenin are taking out loans because they
• 1:14:11
  think Bitcoin will be worth much more in the future, right?
• 1:14:13
  That is the premise of our business, right?
• 1:14:15
  Is don't sell something that's going to appreciate today if you
• 1:14:18
  could basically use it as collateral.
• 1:14:19
  That's the whole point, right. So of course we understand that
• 1:14:22
  the liquidation is something that a is not the desired
• 1:14:25
  outcome that our clients want and the we don't want it either.
• 1:14:28
  We were very hard to open loans and we don't benefit when loans
• 1:14:32
  get closed and clients don't have a great experience.
• 1:14:34
  So our sort of North Star is helping you plan and size that
• 1:14:38
  loan so that even when moments like this hit, you're just
• 1:14:41
  responding and moving on. And then just another day in
• 1:14:43
  your life, right? If to your point, if you're
• 1:14:45
  seeing a 5% down move, a 10% down move, when you find
• 1:14:48
  yourself looking at your watch stressing and sweating, your
• 1:14:51
  loan's probably too big at that point, right?
• 1:14:53
  You should look to, to, you know, de risk a little bit or
• 1:14:55
  hedge down. And we did see some clients
• 1:14:58
  basically do partial repayments to, to be safe.
• 1:15:01
  We saw some clients even proactively settle some of their
• 1:15:03
  loans to, to basically use the Bitcoin to protect other loans.
• 1:15:06
  Like people have plans and those plans can take many different
• 1:15:08
  shapes and sizes, but you have to have a plan, right?
• 1:15:11
  And you have to assume that at some point Bitcoin may go down
• 1:15:14
  momentarily and you need to have enough of a cushion to basically
• 1:15:17
  bring it back up. Because again, as to to the
• 1:15:20
  example of the chart that you mentioned, right, The chart that
• 1:15:23
  you mentioned is a graph that I've put and I can share with
• 1:15:25
  you. We can discuss it at length at a
• 1:15:27
  different at a different show. I just don't have it right off
• 1:15:30
  like I don't have it right now handy that that graph in
• 1:15:32
  particular, but basically what the graph shows is what would
• 1:15:35
  have happened for a person that took out $100,000 loan on
• 1:15:38
  January 1st, 2020. Okay and that person went
• 1:15:40
  through Covic the FDX crash. I'll update that model to even
• 1:15:43
  model out this price volatility episode.
• 1:15:46
  But in essence, the amount of collateral that you need for
• 1:15:50
  your Bitcoin is an inverse relation, give or take, with the
• 1:15:54
  price of Bitcoin. So if we're looking at the price
• 1:15:56
  chart and the pressure is doing this over time, the collateral
• 1:16:00
  needed for the same dollar amount over that same period is
• 1:16:02
  going to do this, right? And that's exactly what the
• 1:16:04
  chart shows. You know, when, when Bitcoin's
• 1:16:07
  going up at steady state, right, or it's flat, you don't really
• 1:16:10
  see it. But everyone here watching this
• 1:16:13
  that's been around Bitcoin for long enough knows that every so
• 1:16:16
  often we'll have these Omega candles or Bitcoin will go up
• 1:16:19
  2025% in a day. And then all of a sudden, you
• 1:16:22
  know, you're looking down at $20,000, which was the previous
• 1:16:25
  all time high. And you're kind of looking down
• 1:16:27
  at it. And you know, from, from a sort
• 1:16:28
  of nose bleeding height looking saying, well, we're at 120.
• 1:16:30
  Remember that 20K top all right? And so it, it the, the, the loan
• 1:16:36
  itself over the long term will allow you to increase your net
• 1:16:40
  worth if you use it properly. It's important to be able to
• 1:16:43
  have a plan to respond throughout the volatility
• 1:16:45
  because the worst that could happen is that on your path to
• 1:16:48
  the top of the mountain, you get derailed because you, you, you
• 1:16:50
  know, you over borrowed or you didn't size it or you didn't
• 1:16:53
  think that Bitcoin could do this or that.
• 1:16:54
  So it's better always to assume or prepare for the worst and
• 1:16:59
  wait for the best. Absolutely no, I, I, I
• 1:17:02
  completely agree. And I, I think this is when you
• 1:17:05
  know, like this is, it's moments like these where you know, it's
• 1:17:12
  moments like these where you, you obviously again, it, it's,
• 1:17:18
  it's moments like these where it's incredibly important for
• 1:17:20
  you to understand the tool that you are using.
• 1:17:23
  But one of the things that you said on stage when, when, when
• 1:17:29
  we were all on stage together, Madisha, that stuck out to me,
• 1:17:32
  which was the, the fact that there has been no liquidations.
• 1:17:38
  That was one of the things that stuck out to me when we were, we
• 1:17:42
  were speaking. And I think that's a
• 1:17:45
  representation of, you know, the the Bitcoin community as a whole
• 1:17:51
  in terms of being responsible, so to speak.
• 1:17:55
  Yeah. And listen like again the the
• 1:17:57
  October 10th episode again was not a a Bitcoin episode.
• 1:18:01
  So that one did not lead to some to to liquidations at lead and
• 1:18:04
  we did see some liquidations on this recent drawdown.
• 1:18:07
  Just mathematically, it would have impacted and like if you,
• 1:18:11
  if you run the numbers where you're taking a 50% Bitcoin back
• 1:18:13
  loan at 121 hundred, a price of 70A price of 60 does get you
• 1:18:18
  into that critical area that could trigger some liquidations,
• 1:18:20
  right. So in this instance, what was
• 1:18:23
  what was tested really was the resilience, the stability of the
• 1:18:26
  platform and and the, the, the performance of things like auto
• 1:18:30
  top up, right. And so I again, I think
• 1:18:34
  liquidations are a part of any Bitcoin back lending companies
• 1:18:39
  risk management that they have them working as intended.
• 1:18:41
  I think it's actually a great sign of sound risk management.
• 1:18:45
  But you know, people, that's why we, we lean so hard in telling
• 1:18:49
  our clients listen, assume that this volatility could hit, plan
• 1:18:52
  for it. Make sure it doesn't catch you
• 1:18:54
  off guard. If you need to respond fast.
• 1:18:55
  Here's all the top up. You know, here's three other
• 1:18:57
  ways you can protect your loan, But it's important to to
• 1:19:00
  understand that that is a risk for you taking out these loans
• 1:19:03
  and you just have to plan for them.
• 1:19:05
  Yeah, absolutely. And you have to do, you have to
• 1:19:06
  do it responsibly. I I would say is, is the thing
• 1:19:09
  now, Mauricio, I I do want to mention the fact that like we,
• 1:19:14
  we there was this other thing that you mentioned during on
• 1:19:16
  stage. I do want to bring it up, but
• 1:19:18
  it's not coming to mind. I'm going to pass it on to Opti
• 1:19:20
  while I have this brain fart. Opti, you want to jump in.
• 1:19:23
  Well, I dude, my camera, I I have the same issue that
• 1:19:27
  Mauricio is having right now. I don't know what's going on.
• 1:19:30
  Here we go. All right, look, I, I really
• 1:19:34
  personally and I, I don't want to derail this conversation
• 1:19:36
  'cause I know the, the chat is really interested in this
• 1:19:39
  conversation. So I really wanted to talk more
• 1:19:41
  macro stuff here, but I, I don't, I don't.
• 1:19:44
  Yeah, I'll do. That after the.
• 1:19:45
  Break. Yeah, I don't.
• 1:19:46
  I don't want to derail this. We'll do that after the break.
• 1:19:48
  We'll do that after the break. But no, we let's, let's, let's
• 1:19:52
  finish up the conversation regarding to let in 'cause I, I
• 1:19:55
  know a lot of people had questions.
• 1:19:56
  I know it's it's it's been your brains have been farting all
• 1:20:00
  day. Thank you guys.
• 1:20:01
  I love the simply Bitcoin chat. You guys are so supportive.
• 1:20:04
  We appreciate all of you guys. Thank you guys so much Love you
• 1:20:08
  guys, but no man, look, there was another thing that you said
• 1:20:14
  on stage that really stuck out to me and I'm having trouble
• 1:20:19
  remembering what it was. Oh my God, what was it?
• 1:20:26
  Well, I would luckily, I mean, I, I was up a few times there.
• 1:20:29
  I had the, I had that panel with you.
• 1:20:32
  I had a bunch of the stuff. So I, I, I would be, I don't
• 1:20:36
  want to blurb you with all the presentations, but you know that
• 1:20:39
  there was a mainstage in the history of lending and then
• 1:20:40
  there was a panel that we did on lending the Napa presentation.
• 1:20:45
  No, the Napa presentation was good, but no, it was, it was
• 1:20:48
  while we the the ad hoc moderating panel, there was a,
• 1:20:55
  there was a question that I I can't, the chat is going crazy.
• 1:21:00
  There is a, there is a question that I asked you then I really,
• 1:21:04
  really, I found that really quite interesting.
• 1:21:07
  Anyways, I guess I guess I'll get back to it.
• 1:21:09
  But anyways, Mauricio last bit. And then we do want to pick your
• 1:21:13
  brain in terms of the overall kind of macro, you know,
• 1:21:17
  situation and what's going on with that.
• 1:21:20
  So what piece of advice would you give to people kind of
• 1:21:26
  navigating this market with high volatility?
• 1:21:30
  You as the Co founder of let in? What piece of advice would you
• 1:21:33
  give to people that are looking at Bitcoin back loans?
• 1:21:38
  They see the volatility. They're like, Oh my God, this is
• 1:21:40
  not 'cause it's so funny because it's like when there's downward,
• 1:21:44
  it's when there's downward volatility, it's like, Oh my
• 1:21:47
  God, blah, blah, blah. When there's upward volatility,
• 1:21:49
  it's like, Oh my God, this is genius.
• 1:21:50
  This is such a great idea. So I think it's like unfair
• 1:21:53
  framing, right? So I, I just, I, I, I want to
• 1:21:57
  just like, what piece of advice like would you give to, you
• 1:22:02
  know, bitcoiners that are potentially interested in using
• 1:22:04
  this product? I would say the, the main piece
• 1:22:08
  of advice is even at these levels, right, If you're
• 1:22:10
  considering taking out a Bitcoin back loan at these levels,
• 1:22:14
  assume that we could get lower, right?
• 1:22:15
  Like I'm not saying that we will go lower nor do I predict or
• 1:22:18
  want us to go lower, but you're always trying to look out for
• 1:22:22
  yourself and your ability to come out this loan on the other
• 1:22:25
  side, right? So regardless of what the price
• 1:22:28
  of Bitcoin is size your loan in a way that you can endure AA50
• 1:22:33
  to 70% drawdown at all times, right?
• 1:22:36
  Because that will make sure that you could sleep at night, that
• 1:22:38
  you don't have to worry about it, that if, if whatever reason,
• 1:22:41
  volatility hits, you have a plan for it and it's not derailing
• 1:22:45
  your day-to-day, right? Like if you're taking out loans
• 1:22:48
  and there's a price that you feel we might hit price starts
• 1:22:50
  heading in that direction, that's just going to immediately
• 1:22:52
  take you out of your box and distract you, right?
• 1:22:55
  And I think that's actually one of the the main heuristics that
• 1:22:58
  I like to use to basically assess whether or has somebody
• 1:23:00
  has taken out more of, you know, a bigger loan or taking on more
• 1:23:03
  risk than they should have. If you're thinking about it too
• 1:23:06
  much or if you're thinking about it a few times a day, you
• 1:23:09
  probably size it up too, too big, right?
• 1:23:11
  So for me, the most important thing as you're working out the
• 1:23:15
  plan or the decision to take a loan like these is to ensure
• 1:23:19
  that you have a plan and that you have the means to react to
• 1:23:22
  that plan to to to protect that loan, right.
• 1:23:25
  Because taking a Bitcoin back loan is suggesting that you
• 1:23:28
  think Bitcoin price is going to be higher, right?
• 1:23:30
  Not but but at the same time, nobody has a crystal ball
• 1:23:33
  between now and two years or two years from now, Bitcoin might
• 1:23:36
  trade lower than where we are today for whatever reason, right
• 1:23:39
  China bandit, you know, treasury companies puked whatever, you
• 1:23:43
  know a certain reason here, you know hard in in this particular
• 1:23:47
  drought down. People were just asking
• 1:23:48
  questions and saying, OK, what what's the source of it?
• 1:23:51
  What's the source of it? There's still no no real sort of
• 1:23:53
  boogeyman or culprit for the the drop.
• 1:23:56
  It's just the drop. It's just Bitcoin being Bitcoin
• 1:23:59
  and we can talk about the reasons I have some ideas or
• 1:24:01
  some some sort of insights as to what I what I think would be
• 1:24:05
  driving this. But again, regardless of what's
• 1:24:07
  driving it, we've seen this before this probably won't be
• 1:24:10
  the last time we see this. So just prepare yourself and
• 1:24:13
  size your loan to assume that we might have downside volatility.
• 1:24:17
  And that way, you know, when it hits, you have a plan, it's just
• 1:24:21
  one more day, business as usual and you can continue and it
• 1:24:24
  doesn't derail your plan. So again, I think, you know,
• 1:24:27
  measure twice, cut once, right? It's the same thing with a loan,
• 1:24:30
  right? Size it twice, take the loan
• 1:24:32
  once. Or, you know, not not
• 1:24:34
  necessarily you might need another loan.
• 1:24:35
  But what I'm trying to say is plan, spend twice as much on
• 1:24:38
  your planning because once the position is set, a lot of people
• 1:24:41
  just set it and forget it, right?
• 1:24:43
  And then you, you leave out a top upon, you have to make
• 1:24:44
  monthly payments. You don't really think about it
• 1:24:46
  much. The product is designed to make
• 1:24:49
  you not lose sleep. And if you use it that way, you
• 1:24:51
  know as as many clients will tell you as you as from your own
• 1:24:55
  experience, right? It works.
• 1:24:57
  You don't have to worry. It doesn't stress you out, but
• 1:24:59
  the moment you start using it a little more than you should or
• 1:25:02
  you're taking a bit less, a bigger loan than you should
• 1:25:04
  have, then it starts getting stressful.
• 1:25:06
  And that's not really the position you want to be in, in
• 1:25:09
  the downside volatility move because then you might miss
• 1:25:11
  other opportunities, right? If your head's always on, what's
• 1:25:13
  going to happen to my loan, what's going to happen to my
• 1:25:14
  loan, you might miss other things that are happening that
• 1:25:16
  day. They're right in front of your
• 1:25:17
  face like the opportunity to buy the dip, right?
• 1:25:20
  And so just plan, spend more time over indexed on the
• 1:25:26
  planning and the response so that you can have a great
• 1:25:29
  experience. Yeah, I 100% agree with that
• 1:25:34
  advice. And again, my rule of thumb is
• 1:25:37
  if you can't survive an 80% drawdown, you're probably a
• 1:25:41
  little bit overextended. And we've been, by the way,
• 1:25:43
  we've literally been saying that for months.
• 1:25:45
  I've literally been saying that literally for, for I think every
• 1:25:49
  single time. What easier comes on the show?
• 1:25:52
  So it's just, again, reality hits like when you start to have
• 1:25:55
  that downward volatility. But if you use it responsibly,
• 1:25:59
  again, it's one of the most powerful tools that you can use
• 1:26:02
  because then you don't have to sell your Bitcoin, which is
• 1:26:04
  like, obviously as a bitcoiner, you wanna end up with more
• 1:26:07
  Bitcoin today than you have tomorrow.
• 1:26:09
  And this is a great tool that you can use if you use it
• 1:26:12
  responsibly. But as Mauricio said, like every
• 1:26:14
  tool, if you don't use it properly, you know, things could
• 1:26:17
  happen. So anyways, guys, we're going to
• 1:26:19
  be right back. I want to get Mauricio's kind of
• 1:26:21
  general macro takes on things. Who's calling me?
• 1:26:25
  My sister, and I'm going to ignore you.
• 1:26:27
  I don't know why my phone is silent on silent.
• 1:26:29
  It is Monday. I apologize, guys.
• 1:26:32
  So we're going to get Mauricio's macro takes right after the
• 1:26:35
  break. We're going to be right back in
• 1:26:36
  just a little bit. I want to give a shout out to
• 1:26:39
  our partner Hive Digital Technologies.
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• 1:27:21
  All right, everybody, we are back Opti.
• 1:27:23
  I'm going to pass it on to our macro expert.
• 1:27:25
  I don't know about all that. I don't know about all that, but
• 1:27:27
  that that's why I wanted, I wanted, you know, pick
• 1:27:30
  Mauricio's brain because the last time you were on I oh, no,
• 1:27:33
  it wasn't the last time. It was like maybe three months
• 1:27:36
  ago. You pretty much called the
• 1:27:38
  situation where we are today and we're like, dude, Mauricio was
• 1:27:41
  saying that this was exactly going on and the chats like,
• 1:27:44
  hey, all the all the leaden stuff's cool, Mauricio, but give
• 1:27:48
  me some opium. What are you seeing with the
• 1:27:50
  macro? What is you're taking and if you
• 1:27:52
  can explain to the audience, why do you why you personally think
• 1:27:57
  the price drops? So just general macro, where do
• 1:28:00
  you think we are? You know what's going on with
• 1:28:02
  Bitcoin and further what's going on with just like the global
• 1:28:04
  economy. Yeah.
• 1:28:07
  So I'll talk a bit about Bitcoin.
• 1:28:08
  So what I'll mention is back on October 6th, John Glover, our
• 1:28:12
  chief investment officer basically said this is the top,
• 1:28:15
  we're going to see a slight correction.
• 1:28:17
  He was he was looking to go down to 7471.
• 1:28:20
  And at the time, you know, when he put out this this view, it
• 1:28:24
  was met with a lot of skepticism.
• 1:28:26
  Everybody said, John, what are you talking about?
• 1:28:29
  So because at Lenin, again, we first of all, not financial
• 1:28:32
  advice, we just, you know, we put on John's technical analysis
• 1:28:37
  for people to just basically gauge a reference as to, you
• 1:28:40
  know, his view on the market. But he was dead on, right?
• 1:28:44
  And we, we came down, we saw 7471, I think we're at 71 right
• 1:28:49
  now, which is dead on target. Like we, we ran past on the low
• 1:28:52
  side, a little further than his target.
• 1:28:54
  And this isn't to say John has a crystal ball, but he's a very
• 1:28:56
  seasoned investor. He's been around for many, many
• 1:29:00
  decades in market. So he has a really good pulse on
• 1:29:05
  just basically macro markets in general.
• 1:29:07
  And he called this now the the foot side to that is that for
• 1:29:11
  his analysis, at least speaking to the analysis he shares and
• 1:29:14
  continues to share through the Leaden X account 71 is sort of
• 1:29:18
  the base where we're going to start forming the rally up to
• 1:29:21
  the next leg. And I think his target on the
• 1:29:23
  way up is I think it's 1:40 to 1:50.
• 1:29:25
  I'll have to double check exactly.
• 1:29:28
  But this is, you know, According to him, if we if we basically
• 1:29:32
  move significantly below the 70K range, we would basically lose
• 1:29:36
  the count based on his analysis and and that would basically
• 1:29:39
  reset his view. But right now it's going dead on
• 1:29:43
  to the levels that he had, you know, called out months ago in
• 1:29:48
  October. As far as the reason and, and I
• 1:29:52
  think from a Hopian perspective, I guess what I'll say is just my
• 1:29:55
  observation is I think that bid at 60 that we caught was quite
• 1:29:58
  strong. So again, I don't have a crystal
• 1:30:01
  ball. This is not financial advice,
• 1:30:03
  but I would be hard pressed if we if we even try to revisit 60.
• 1:30:07
  I think the, the, the aggressiveness of that bid at 60
• 1:30:12
  was pretty stood out to me. I guess it's pretty significant.
• 1:30:15
  And if you look at the volume traded at that level, it was
• 1:30:17
  pretty, pretty sizable. So I think there is a great deal
• 1:30:20
  of interest to buy on the buy side around those levels.
• 1:30:24
  The theory that I, I subscribe to the most as to what's driving
• 1:30:28
  this, they're the most credible sort of explanations.
• 1:30:32
  I think some of them were put out by Jeff Park and others
• 1:30:35
  relate to a Trat 5 fund that was doing some type of carry trade
• 1:30:39
  using Ibid and some other treasury company stock, right.
• 1:30:43
  I think what you saw for a while when these when these treasury
• 1:30:47
  companies were trading at like a crazy multiples to their net
• 1:30:50
  asset value is that some arbitrage shops.
• 1:30:54
  So an opportunity to go short the treasury company loan
• 1:30:56
  Bitcoin right to basically are about that trade.
• 1:31:00
  Well, how do you unwind that trade is you buy back the
• 1:31:03
  treasury company and sell Bitcoin right?
• 1:31:05
  And if you're using instruments in doing that, there will be
• 1:31:08
  times based on market dynamics where if you were putting in the
• 1:31:12
  trade when the when there was a lot of sort of volumes for
• 1:31:16
  Bitcoin, So you were going long Bitcoin at a time where there
• 1:31:21
  were sellers, sellers of that Bitcoin.
• 1:31:24
  And if you're trying to unload that Bitcoin and there's not
• 1:31:26
  enough bid on the spot markets, that's going to cause a rundown
• 1:31:29
  in the price of the book, right. And so again, I don't
• 1:31:33
  necessarily have the the sort of receipts to say it was this
• 1:31:36
  fund, it was that fund, it was this particular arbitrage trade.
• 1:31:39
  But I do think that given the timing of it, also the fact that
• 1:31:44
  we were bleeding so hard during U.S. market hours suggests to me
• 1:31:49
  that this had more to do with a track Fi unwind or some type of
• 1:31:54
  track Fi position or margin call than it was with a sort of
• 1:31:58
  crypto specific systemic issue. Also, I have to look at the
• 1:32:05
  altcoin landscape. I think they they got absolutely
• 1:32:07
  slaughtered, But again, I think they should have gotten
• 1:32:09
  slaughtered even more if this wasn't some type of Bitcoin
• 1:32:13
  unwind trade and was some sort of, you know, discretionary
• 1:32:17
  crypto sell off, right? So, so that's the the
• 1:32:20
  explanation that I think makes the most sense to me.
• 1:32:23
  We'll see what happens and maybe I wouldn't be surprised if later
• 1:32:26
  this week there's some evidence or some bodies come up floating
• 1:32:31
  from, from companies that basically weren't that got
• 1:32:34
  caught offside from by the move. But again, I, I, I don't really
• 1:32:39
  have any sort of what you call evidence that it was this fund
• 1:32:44
  or that fund or this trade in particular.
• 1:32:47
  I think the explanation that makes the most sense is this
• 1:32:49
  sort of our unwind from a tried fight shop and potentially even
• 1:32:54
  a a blow up because of improper hedging or too much risk taking.
• 1:32:59
  Yeah, that that makes that makes a lot of sense to me.
• 1:33:01
  I I did see Jeff Park's tweet about that and it's like, OK
• 1:33:05
  though, wasn't Jeff Park's tweet saying it was like a Hong Kong
• 1:33:09
  fun but. Yes, yeah, yeah, Asia, Asia,
• 1:33:11
  yeah, yeah, yeah. Again, I don't know he's closer
• 1:33:15
  to that world than I am. But again, when when these type
• 1:33:18
  with these types of things happen.
• 1:33:19
  So for example, when FDX the blow up was happening within the
• 1:33:22
  crypto circles, you, you know, people were saying, OK, well, it
• 1:33:27
  could be these market makers. We we knew that 3 arrows and
• 1:33:31
  Terra Luna had already failed. So some companies could have had
• 1:33:35
  exposure to those failed companies.
• 1:33:37
  And then that created this sort of Daisy chain of, of, of knock
• 1:33:41
  on effects. In this case, this was not what
• 1:33:44
  I would say a nuclear market event for a large crypto
• 1:33:49
  participant. I think by and large most
• 1:33:51
  platforms, I mean there were some outages here and there, but
• 1:33:53
  I think most platforms were pretty reliable and we're up for
• 1:33:57
  the most part not no sort of blow UPS or or bank run type of
• 1:34:02
  conversations I've seen anywhere these type of this time around,
• 1:34:05
  particularly around you know, Bitcoin or crypto specific
• 1:34:07
  firms. So that that suggests to me that
• 1:34:10
  this is more sort of tratify related than than crypto.
• 1:34:14
  Yeah, yeah, I hate the word. I hate that word.
• 1:34:16
  Yeah, yeah, I saw that, that that makes sense.
• 1:34:18
  All right, putting Nikko on the spot because Nikko was gloating
• 1:34:22
  all last week that he called this perfectly.
• 1:34:25
  I don't want to make give you, I don't want you have to make
• 1:34:28
  Bitcoin price predictions here. I want you to react to Nico's
• 1:34:32
  call here for 403040K Bitcoin, you know, four year cycle.
• 1:34:37
  He's like, we're probably going to 3040K.
• 1:34:40
  So the reason, so the reason I said that is because again, the
• 1:34:44
  four year cycle is intact until it's not.
• 1:34:47
  And the moment that it hit in October, we hit the peak and the
• 1:34:52
  top in October. I was telling you for like one
• 1:34:55
  or two months. Hey, man.
• 1:34:57
  It's true the. Cycle's probably over.
• 1:34:58
  It's probably done and from like again, this all goes back to you
• 1:35:04
  have to prepare for the worst. And I I know I was telling you
• 1:35:07
  guys this this entire time in October and you guys gave me so
• 1:35:11
  much shit every single day. I remember you and Walker came
• 1:35:15
  on the show, bro. And you guys literally beat me
• 1:35:18
  up with the metaphor 2 by 4. You know, for me basically
• 1:35:22
  saying, listen, we probably topped the four year cycles
• 1:35:26
  intact. And I said you should as a
• 1:35:29
  Bitcoiner, you should always be mentally prepared for an 80,
• 1:35:33
  which I don't think we'll get an 80 because the market's a lot
• 1:35:36
  bigger, but you should always be prepared for an 80 to 75 to 70%
• 1:35:41
  draw down. That's what I always have said.
• 1:35:43
  I've consistently said that since October.
• 1:35:46
  So if you mentally prepare yourself for that and we don't
• 1:35:49
  hit those, those price levels, you'll be, you know, you'll be
• 1:35:54
  pleasantly surprised. But if you do hit those price
• 1:35:57
  levels, then you're prepared for it.
• 1:35:59
  You're mentally prepared, you're spiritually prepared, you're
• 1:36:01
  financially prepared. If you have a loan, you're
• 1:36:03
  prepared for that as well. You should always be prepared
• 1:36:07
  for that in Bitcoin. If you're not prepared for that
• 1:36:09
  in Bitcoin, you can find yourself in a very bad situation
• 1:36:14
  very quickly. And the reason I know this is
• 1:36:18
  from experience, OK, I've been in these markets for more than a
• 1:36:23
  decade now and I've gone through what this is going to be my
• 1:36:27
  third bear market. I've gone through brutal bear
• 1:36:30
  markets, 80% drawdown, 75% drawdowns, and every single time
• 1:36:37
  I always remembered like I always remember the tops.
• 1:36:40
  Like I was like, oh, OK, there's no way it can't go lower.
• 1:36:42
  There's no way it can't go lower and it ends up going lower.
• 1:36:46
  So right now I, I've prepared this mindset, which is why I
• 1:36:49
  think I called October, right? I've prepared this mindset where
• 1:36:53
  it's like, listen, this is probably the top.
• 1:36:57
  I feel it in my gut. I feel the feeling that the top
• 1:37:00
  feelings always the same. It's always kind of like, you
• 1:37:03
  know what happens if you're having a good time and they just
• 1:37:06
  they stop the music and they turn on the lights.
• 1:37:09
  It's like kind of like that feeling.
• 1:37:11
  And then it always feels like you're, you're on the edge of a
• 1:37:14
  Cliff and you're looking down, right?
• 1:37:16
  Like it's like the combination of those two things and you put
• 1:37:18
  them together. I think Mauricio dropped off
• 1:37:22
  There we go and you put and you put them together.
• 1:37:26
  And I remember having that feeling in October.
• 1:37:28
  And I've only ever had those that feeling, that very
• 1:37:32
  particular feeling two times in my life.
• 1:37:36
  And it was at the tops of the previous bull markets, right?
• 1:37:40
  So this time I learned from the past and I was like, OK, Nico,
• 1:37:45
  prepare. Even if it doesn't happen for
• 1:37:49
  that 70 to 75 to 80% drawdown, right?
• 1:37:53
  If you do so, you're very well prepared, like from a financial
• 1:37:57
  perspective, if you have loans, from a loan perspective, from a
• 1:38:00
  business perspective, I, I run a Bitcoin business, right?
• 1:38:04
  So if you run a Bitcoin business and you're not prepared, you
• 1:38:07
  know, financially for an 80% drawdown, you're going to get
• 1:38:11
  blindsided, right? So that's where I was coming
• 1:38:15
  from. Opti, like you, you should be
• 1:38:17
  prepared for these drawdowns. And the volatility, in my
• 1:38:20
  opinion, is a gift because once the volatility goes away, you
• 1:38:24
  won't the, the, once the volatility goes away, the
• 1:38:27
  volatility doesn't just go away to the downside, it also goes
• 1:38:31
  away for the upside. So the volatility is a good is a
• 1:38:34
  good thing. The volatility is life in my
• 1:38:36
  opinion, right. So Modici, I want to get your
• 1:38:39
  perspective on that. Dude, you've, you've been in
• 1:38:41
  this industry as long as I have, perhaps even more so.
• 1:38:45
  I'm I'm assuming you think the exact same way.
• 1:38:49
  Yeah, 100%. You know, there's, there's
• 1:38:52
  Bitcoin is volatile and it and it cuts both ways, right?
• 1:38:54
  It cuts down, it cuts up. And obviously everybody loves
• 1:38:58
  upside volatility, especially if you're long Bitcoin.
• 1:39:00
  Nobody loves downside volatility, right?
• 1:39:03
  And, and I think again, I keep going back to this idea that you
• 1:39:06
  all should always prepare for the worst, expect the best,
• 1:39:10
  right? If you do so, then the worst
• 1:39:12
  that can happen is, oh, your plan materialized, right?
• 1:39:15
  You plan for the worst, the plan materialized, you know what to
• 1:39:17
  do. You're mentally and spiritually
• 1:39:19
  prepared, as you said. And so it's not this sort of
• 1:39:22
  massive earth shattering event, right?
• 1:39:24
  It's an outcome that you had definitely within your probable
• 1:39:26
  range of outcomes. The the pain comes when you
• 1:39:29
  never planned for that outcome and then you get hit with
• 1:39:32
  unexpected downside volatility without a plan or means to react
• 1:39:35
  right. If you, if you size yourself up
• 1:39:38
  to the downside and you just keep the upside open and let
• 1:39:42
  Bitcoin do its thing, that's the type of setup that we encourage
• 1:39:46
  you having at Latin right, because you know, we had a lot
• 1:39:49
  of clients that there's not a peep throughout this town forum,
• 1:39:51
  right? You know, they, they were so
• 1:39:52
  prepared, they were so dialed in.
• 1:39:54
  I'm very proud of you, Nico, for not, not texting because I, I
• 1:39:58
  think that means to me that you just, you knew you were prepared
• 1:40:02
  for this, right? The volatility came, you had a
• 1:40:04
  plan, you knew where the Bitcoin was, you know what price your
• 1:40:06
  loan could withstand. You know, we were far from it.
• 1:40:08
  You just went on about your day planning today's show or the
• 1:40:11
  next week's show, right? That's exactly the type of
• 1:40:14
  experience that you should. That you, that you will have if
• 1:40:17
  you plan accordingly, right? Conversely, there were a few
• 1:40:20
  clients of of course that were like, Oh my God, I can't, you
• 1:40:23
  know, I can't get to my hardware wallet.
• 1:40:25
  It's, it's this or that. And they just didn't have a
• 1:40:27
  plan, right. And so this, all this happens
• 1:40:29
  every so often, every time one of these cycles happen, people
• 1:40:31
  learn, you know, oh man, I, I, I, I was counting on this or I
• 1:40:35
  was counting on that and that didn't materialize.
• 1:40:38
  And the other point that I'll make is this is now the 4th, 3rd
• 1:40:43
  or 4th volatility cycle since Lenin has been around.
• 1:40:46
  We started lending in 2018. So we saw COVID, we saw FTX and
• 1:40:49
  Alameda, we saw this, you know, we, we've seen everything
• 1:40:52
  basically since 2018. And every time the book becomes
• 1:40:57
  more resilient, more people respond, more, less people write
• 1:41:00
  to us. If from a percentage basis, the
• 1:41:02
  business is growing in absolute number terms, but like on a
• 1:41:04
  percentage basis, it's always less and less and less because
• 1:41:08
  people are learning how the product works, right?
• 1:41:11
  Like we have clients today that have been borrowing with us
• 1:41:13
  since 2018. They, this is definitely not the
• 1:41:15
  first rodeo neither nor is it ours.
• 1:41:17
  So they know the drill, right? And every so often you have
• 1:41:21
  especially the newer people, right?
• 1:41:22
  Like these would be people that started taking out loans 2025,
• 1:41:25
  right? Like this is their first rodeo.
• 1:41:26
  So they are learning a few things about these loans and
• 1:41:29
  these systems and how they need to react.
• 1:41:31
  So again, you know, don't put yourself in a position where
• 1:41:36
  you, you're going to have to learn a lesson and the, and the
• 1:41:39
  pay the price yourself, like try to learn on other people's
• 1:41:41
  lessons. When we tell you, like Nico,
• 1:41:43
  when you say to somebody, size it up, I've been through this,
• 1:41:46
  I've done it. I know what it I know, you know,
• 1:41:49
  I know you can have a great outcome or a good experience if
• 1:41:51
  you size it this way, if you plan it this way, you know,
• 1:41:55
  don't, don't think that we're saying plan, plan, plan just
• 1:41:58
  because we like saying it. We don't want you to take a loan
• 1:42:00
  or whatever reason, right? Like we're saying it because we
• 1:42:02
  want you to have a great experience and not be caught
• 1:42:06
  flat footed with one of these, the volatility episodes.
• 1:42:09
  You just reminded me of where I had a brain fart of the question
• 1:42:14
  that I was going to ask you that I, that I, that you said on
• 1:42:17
  stage. That really stuck with me.
• 1:42:19
  You said that. And it was very important that
• 1:42:22
  you said this, Mauricio. And I want, because again, this
• 1:42:25
  is what I hear from Twitter and I and I, I want you to speak on
• 1:42:28
  this. It is more beneficial for you
• 1:42:31
  guys not to have liquidations than to have liquidations.
• 1:42:36
  And you actually broke down the numbers.
• 1:42:38
  Thank God you said that because I would have forgot that
• 1:42:40
  question. And it was a very important
• 1:42:42
  question because I love when you, when you spoke about that
• 1:42:44
  on stage, when we did that ad hoc conversation.
• 1:42:49
  So could you talk a little bit about that?
• 1:42:50
  Because that's part of the that's like on Twitter, I see
• 1:42:54
  that as like kind of like part of like this narrative.
• 1:42:57
  It's like, oh, they want people to get liquidated.
• 1:43:00
  And you had a very good response.
• 1:43:03
  You're like, no, we actually don't want people to get
• 1:43:05
  liquidated. You broke down the economics of
• 1:43:08
  it, the financial aspect of it. You actually want people to keep
• 1:43:13
  their loans and that is actually more beneficial to you guys.
• 1:43:16
  So can you break that down? Because that was one of the
• 1:43:18
  narratives that's been being talked about, and I loved how
• 1:43:21
  you broke it down on stage. Yeah, 100%.
• 1:43:24
  So at Lenin, our incentives are aligned with our clients, the
• 1:43:28
  borrowers, right? Like we make money on the spread
• 1:43:32
  or the interest rate spread between what we lend the money
• 1:43:34
  at and we borrow the money at, right?
• 1:43:35
  So we make money while the loan is open.
• 1:43:37
  Lenin has no liquidation fees, right?
• 1:43:40
  Like we don't make any extra money when you're going through
• 1:43:42
  these liquidations and we and, and your loans get closed.
• 1:43:46
  We work very hard to earn your trust so that you come to Lenin
• 1:43:50
  when you need a loan, right? And you work with us, you keep
• 1:43:52
  your loans open. We believe that and we've seen
• 1:43:55
  this in our numbers, right? Like if if you're a client that
• 1:43:58
  has two Bitcoin with us and you started working with that in in
• 1:44:01
  2018, right, Your loan capacity was very small relative in
• 1:44:06
  dollar terms, because you have two Bitcoin at 3K each Bitcoin.
• 1:44:09
  Fast forward to 2026, right? Like your two Bitcoin right now
• 1:44:13
  have a pretty sizable borrowing capacity.
• 1:44:15
  So at Lenin, not only do we want you to keep your lows open over
• 1:44:19
  time because that's better for us, but we believe that if we
• 1:44:23
  can, if you can use the product right and you can benefit from
• 1:44:26
  the product that Bitcoin appreciates, you are going to,
• 1:44:30
  you know, be able to do more business with us in the future
• 1:44:32
  with that same amount of Bitcoin, right?
• 1:44:34
  And so not only do we want to make sure your loans, you know,
• 1:44:37
  are as protected as possible, we, we want to make sure you
• 1:44:41
  have a great experience with this loan because we believe
• 1:44:43
  that even if you stop needing the loan in a year's time, you
• 1:44:46
  might need a loan in two or three years from now.
• 1:44:48
  And you'll at that point, you'll be much more successful if you
• 1:44:50
  kept that Bitcoin. So we want you to have lead on
• 1:44:51
  top of mind. And for that reason and many
• 1:44:54
  others, like we don't want our client loans to get liquidated,
• 1:44:57
  right? Like it, it, it makes very
• 1:44:59
  little financial sense for us and certainly no makes very
• 1:45:02
  little strategic sense to, you know, have a client that could
• 1:45:05
  have been a multi $1,000,000 opportunity for us in 10 years.
• 1:45:10
  Get, you know, don't have a great experience and decide
• 1:45:13
  that, you know, these loans, you know, basically take a break
• 1:45:16
  from these loans or, or because they didn't use the tool right,
• 1:45:19
  the the product didn't work for them.
• 1:45:20
  So we want to make sure you're using these things correctly so
• 1:45:23
  that you can come to the other side, not get liquidated because
• 1:45:26
  that's not the outcome we want or you want and you can grow
• 1:45:29
  with us with that same Bitcoin because if we let you keep that
• 1:45:32
  one Bitcoin today, that's 100K or 70 K 10 years from now, that
• 1:45:36
  can be 1,000,000 bucks, right? And so that's a great thing for
• 1:45:40
  our business if we can keep your trust and continue doing
• 1:45:43
  business with you until such time.
• 1:45:45
  And I think there's this sort of belief out there that companies
• 1:45:51
  want to liquidate you to take your Bitcoin.
• 1:45:52
  We're not buying if loans get liquidated, let doesn't keep any
• 1:45:55
  of that. This is literally just de
• 1:45:57
  risking the platform so that we can settle the loans that have
• 1:46:01
  have basically gone into the fall by not having enough
• 1:46:03
  Bitcoin and ensure we keep the integrity of the platform so
• 1:46:07
  that we can protect everyone else that's borrowing with let
• 1:46:10
  in. So we we are aligned with your
• 1:46:13
  loans not getting closed. We are aligned with your loans
• 1:46:16
  remaining open because that's also more beneficial for us from
• 1:46:19
  a financial perspective and from a strategic long term value of a
• 1:46:22
  client perspective. Yeah, and, and, and I'd love,
• 1:46:25
  and I'm so glad that you brought that up because I totally
• 1:46:27
  mentally farted that when we were, we were talking about it
• 1:46:31
  earlier. I'm so glad that when you were
• 1:46:33
  talking, you reminded me to ask you that question because again,
• 1:46:36
  that was one of the kind of, that was one of the conceptions
• 1:46:41
  that you see. But it's like, no, your guys's
• 1:46:44
  incentive is actually to keep your clients happy for your
• 1:46:48
  clients not to get liquidated. So they actually meant they,
• 1:46:52
  they keep being a long term client.
• 1:46:55
  You guys don't actually have a lot of upside.
• 1:46:57
  If there is a liquidation event, it's obviously just to protect
• 1:47:00
  your guys's business, right? Ultimately.
• 1:47:03
  So anyways, Manicio, it's always a pleasure having you on the
• 1:47:06
  show today. Guys like the show.
• 1:47:10
  If you guys liked it, subscribe. Of course, we appreciate you all
• 1:47:13
  was a killer show. We hit 800 live viewers on
• 1:47:16
  YouTube alone in a bear market. It's not that bad, Opti.
• 1:47:19
  Maybe I'm jinxing it. Maybe I shouldn't say.
• 1:47:20
  That volatility's good. Volatility's good, but anyways,
• 1:47:24
  if you guys enjoyed today's show, you know to do smash the
• 1:47:26
  like button, consider subscribing all of that good
• 1:47:28
  stuff. Go check out leaden dot IO.
• 1:47:31
  Use the promo code in the description because if not, I
• 1:47:34
  get in trouble. And shout out to Mauricio for
• 1:47:38
  coming on the show today. Thank you, Mauricio, for joining
• 1:47:41
  us. Always a pleasure guys.
• 1:47:43
  Stick around for a little bit, all right, guys.
• 1:47:44
  We'll be we'll see you guys tomorrow.
• 1:47:47
  Take it easy. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:47:49
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:47:53
  mission to enable financial independence.