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Episode 240 - 3/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 240 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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  week. We're halfway through the 1st 4,
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  had two last night, 2 tonight. And then all of the insanity,
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  the madness, the craziness, full stop, starts tomorrow because
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  we're going to get March Madness beginning bright and early.
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  Creighton, Louisville, 12:15 PM Eastern Time.
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  And we get a full day of sweats on Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
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  Sunday. The madness is upon us, guys.
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  So one of the best times a year to be betting on sports and we
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  are going to be doing just that on today's podcast.
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  So with that being said, I do have a three pack of sweats for
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  you today guys, including two plays on these final or first
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  four games. They're both going to be totals
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  here. There was a couple sides that
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  were interesting me, but at a couple red flags.
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  I'm be looking at totals for both of these games.
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  When it comes to Mount Saint Mary's and American and Xavier
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  in Texas, although I was pretty close on one side.
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  I'll tell you what that is here shortly.
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  But there was again one red flag that caught me a little bit, a
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  little bit by surprise, scared me a bit and then going to get
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  right back to the NBAI got a total for you in the NBA as
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  well. Looking for a high scoring game
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  in this one with some good market movement, a good sharp
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  mush edge from Juice Rio and hopefully a winner here with a
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  lot of points in this NBA matchup.
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  So it's all basketball. It's all totals today, guys.
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  That's the theme of the day. Now before we dive in our sweats
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  for today, looking back toward last night, guys, how important
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  it is to get the best number. Perfect example, last night we
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  capped a couple totals pretty good, but you may have either
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  only gotten one or neither of them.
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  Because if you look back toward that, that Alabama State, St.
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  Francis under, remember it opened as high as 142 1/2.
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  I got the under 138 1/2. It actually closed at 135 1/2.
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  So boy, did we nail that, that sharp money under.
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  And at the time of the pod, the total was 137 half.
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  Well, wouldn't you know it, it landed right at 1:38.
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  So it goes to show you that the early betters 130 1/2 or better
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  able to cash that bet. Anything lower than that you
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  lost. If you bought loan went over
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  when you saw it fall so hard all the way down to 135 1/2.
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  Talk about some insane steam. That just really is the perfect
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  example of even though you might have identified an under, it's
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  all about when you place the bet, when you got the good
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  number. So depends on what you got it.
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  If you got it earlier, you won. If you got it late, you lost.
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  The other one that was not very fun to watch was the North
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  Carolina game because I had the under in that one as well.
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  Under 142 1/2 or yeah, 142 1/2. It actually ended up closing at
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  1:41. So once again, beating the
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  closing line. Reading the market, you know,
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  UNC could not stop scoring. They were on fire.
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  I guess they took it personally that they maybe shouldn't have
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  made the tournament but beat the closing line.
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  That thing sailed over. And then of course the Bucks dog
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  to fave with the rest advantage. Just no show against the Golden
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  State Warriors. So the Bucks you are complete
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  and total frauds. So either way guys, it was a 1
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  and 2 -. 1.05 unit night for me. It could have been even a three
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  an O and three because of that late number there with Alabama
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  State. But either way, win, lose or
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  draw, we're going to get right back to it today, hopefully post
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  a winning day. So let's get right to March
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  Madness, baby, because we got to play in games tonight and I got
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  plays on both of these games. So first one 6:40 PM Eastern
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  Time, the early matchup, Mount Saint Mary's and American.
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  This is your east region matchup.
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  Couple 16 seeds going out at the winner Lamb to the slaughter
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  going to face number one seed Duke.
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  So what do we see across the market here?
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  Well, it's set the stage talk some line movement and I'll give
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  you my play for this one. So Mount Saint Mary's comes into
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  this game 22 and 12. They just beat Iona 63 to 49 to
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  win the MAAC tournament. They went out right as A5 and A5
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  point neutral site dog. Meanwhile, American 22 and 12 as
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  well just crushed Navy 74 to 52 to win the Patriot League
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  tournament, easily covering as a four and a half point neutral
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  site favorite. So what do you see across the
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  market here? Well, this kind of this line was
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  kind of all over the place. I saw a bunch of books open -2
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  1/2 stay -2 1/2 American. I saw one book that open
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  American -3 and got down to 2 1/2.
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  I saw some books that opened American -1 1/2 and got up to 2
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  1/2. But the one thing I have noticed
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  is that once it's settled at 2 1/2, it really has not moved at
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  all. So maybe this is just the
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  perfect line from the odds makers perspective because not
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  only is the line not moving off of American -2 1/2, and this is
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  a perfect example of, you know, paying attention to late juice
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  movement. Do we see it between now and
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  6:40 PM rise up to three? Do we see it fall down to two?
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  Right now it's sitting right there in the middle, sitting on
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  the fence at -2 1/2 and a lot of juices -110 both sides.
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  So something worth monitoring here.
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  But also the public doesn't know what to do. 5050 down the
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  middle. So the line hasn't moved and the
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  public doesn't know what to do. Now if you dig a little bit
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  closer, American does have one thing I noticed they have a
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  little bit better of the low bets, higher dollars bet split
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  at DraftKings, 50% of spread bets, 56% of spread dollars at
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  circa 57% of spread bets, 59% of spread dollars.
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  So you do have low bets, higher dollars technically in favor of
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  American. But then here's where it gets a
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  little difficult. Ken Palm has American only
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  winning by 1. So that would kind of provide
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  some value to Mount Saint Mary's plus 2 1/2.
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  So in this case, you know, we got American.
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  They do have the better offensive efficiency, 250 second
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  in the country versus 294th for Mount Saint Mary's.
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  But then Mount Saint Mary's has the much better defensive
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  efficiency, 176 in the country versus 2O6.
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  So Ken Palms got a one point game.
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  The line hasn't moved off a 2 1/2.
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  The public's pretty much right down the middle.
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  I really see no clear edge guys, when it comes to the side, we
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  haven't seen a huge line move. There isn't a great contrarian
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  opportunity. There isn't a huge Ken Palm edge
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  aside from actually Mount Saint Mary's in the points.
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  So without a clear edge here, I don't want anything to do with
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  this side, but I do have an interest in the total.
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  It's a low number, but I'm going under with this one guys.
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  This total opened for Mount Saint Mary's American as high as
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  132 1/2. It's now down to 129 1/2 and
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  some books are even down to 129. So aside from or you know, you
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  kind of flip it here, the side it's 5050 hasn't moved at all.
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  This one has been all sharp under movement and the bet
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  splits look really good on this under the under DraftKings only
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  38% of bets, but 55% of dollars and we've seen this line drop.
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  And then also these are two pretty slow teams.
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  You have Mount Saint Mary's ranking 171st in possessions per
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  game. American is one of the slowest
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  teams in the entire nation, 300 and 49th.
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  So in this spot, didn't really see much here on the side.
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  You tell me you want a money line American, You tell me,
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  sorry, there's my there's my alarm going off.
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  You won't tell me you want a money line, American.
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  You tell me you want to go Mount Saint Mary's plus 2 1/2 or wait
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  for a three. I can't argue either way.
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  But I don't see a clear edge, guys.
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  But I do see some pretty consistent sharp money going
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  under. So that's my play.
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  I'm going under 129 1/2. And again, got to make sure you
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  get the hook there because how important was it last night with
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  the 138 1/2 landed 138. But I'm going to go American
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  Mount Saint Mary's, hopefully a low scoring game, maybe a 62 to
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  60 game. What do you think?
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  Under 129 1/2. Next one for you, The big boy
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  tonight, the big boy matchup, Xavier and Texas, the Midwest
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  region couple 11 seeds going out at the winner goes on to face
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  six seed Illinois. So let's set the stage for this
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  one talk some line movement. This came open with Xavier.
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  I'm sorry, sitting the stage here.
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  Xavier is 21 and 11 on the year. Just came up short against
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  Marquette 89 to 87. Remember that was the game where
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  we money line Marquette. Thank God because there is a
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  what was his name? I think Conwell hit that three
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  there from half court to make it a 2 point game instead of A5
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  point game. They did cover though Xavier as
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  a 2 1/2 point dog in that Big E tournament quarterfinal match
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  up. Meanwhile, Texas 19 and 15 on
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  the year just fell to Tennessee though 83 to 72 and the SEC
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  tournament quarterfinals didn't cover as a nine and a half point
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  neutral site dog. So in terms of what we've seen
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  across the market, it looks like the sharp play is Xavier.
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  This game open with Xavier listed as a 2 point favorite,
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  neutral site and the public says give me the points with Texas.
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  Big name school made a little bit of noise, won a couple
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  rounds in the tournament or their conference tournament.
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  So 55% of bets are on Texas. Yet this line is moved further
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  towards Xavier -2 up to -3 So right off the bat, public Texas
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  line going to Xavier tells me you got some reverse line
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  movement. Fade the trendy dog in favor of
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  the Musketeers. Now the splits look pretty good
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  on Xavier. They're getting 45% of spread
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  bets, 54% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
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  At Circa, they're getting 52% of spread bets, 59% of spread
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  dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa are
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  showing a good low bets, higher dollar split with that reverse
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  line move fade the trendy dog play in favor of Xavier.
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  So it's pretty clear market is moving towards Xavier.
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  They do have the better defensive efficiency, 44th in
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  the country versus 56th for Texas, but a three-point
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  shooting 39% versus 36% and better free throw shooting 79%
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  versus 75%. But what trips me up a little
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  bit and worries me is that we have a Ken Palm sound the alarm
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  on Texas. Remember that that's when Ken
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  Palm has a team winning the game.
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  Yet in the betting market there a dog getting points, Ken Palm
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  has Texas winning this game by 1.76 to 75.
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  So it's hard for me to lay a three, even though Xavier does
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  look to be the sharp play when Ken Palm has Xavier losing the
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  game and yet I'm laying 3. And then the money line, I mean,
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  they're like -155 on the money line that doesn't, that's not
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  that expensive of a price. But that was enough for me to
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  lay off a bit just because again, it looks like, and I
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  should probably trust the market over Ken Palm.
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  But you have seen these games, they can be very tight.
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  That just worried me that Ken Palm has Texas winning, which
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  would provide value to actually take in Texas +3.
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  Or you can maybe even find a 3 1/2 out out, you know, at a, at
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  a straggler book. So for that reason, I ain't
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  touching the side, even though based on the market, it looks
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  like Xavier is sharp. What I am going to do is play
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  the total. I'm going to go over here guys.
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  I'm going to look toward and over and one thing we've seen
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  you look at even last night like technically both oversit based
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  on the closing line, but the market fell.
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  The market went down. Same thing with Mount Saint
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  Mary's American Hope that under cash is what that total fell.
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  This is the first game among the 1st 4 where the total went up.
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  The total open at 1:50, it's up to 150 and a half, 151 even 151
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  1/2. And that's notable because
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  again, typically you get these first four games, you know,
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  leaning toward lower scoring games, yet this one has been hit
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  pretty clearly toward the over. So you look at the bet splits at
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  DraftKings, the over is getting 66% bets, 83% dollars, circa,
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  75% bets, 93% dollars. So we got the line going up.
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  It's a high total to begin with and it still went up.
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  Both bets and dollars look really good in favor of the over
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  at both DraftKings and Circa. And then we get into these teams
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  specifically. They're both top 50 in offensive
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  efficiency. They are both top 95 in
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  effective field goal percentage. And Xavier also plays at a
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  pretty fast pace, ranking 74th in tempo.
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  So that was enough for me to say, hey, let's root for some
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  points in this one. Again, I feel like Xavier is the
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  play. I'm just worried that Ken Palm
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  has Texas winning the game, but it looks pretty clear here with
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  the bets in dollars, you know, low bets, higher dollars to the
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  over the total ticked up a bit. I'm going to play this this over
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  here. So you can definitely get over
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  151 1/2. If you shop around, you might
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  even find over 150 1/2 at FanDuel.
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  But both these teams can score. I'm hoping for points in this
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  one. I'm going Xavier, Texas over 151
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  1/2 and again, if you can find 150 1/2 even better.
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  So Xavier over Mount Saint Mary's under.
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  Let's see if we can get at least one of those.
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  We get both. That would be amazing.
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  Now let's go over to the NBA. I got one play for you guys in
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  the NBA that caught my eye. It is a 7:00 game tonight
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  between the Dallas Mavericks and the Indiana Pacers.
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  Now going in this one, we got Dallas 33 and 36.
• 13:01
  Still can't believe they traded Luca and then they actually are
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  asking for Mavericks fans to pay higher ticket prices.
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  You know, sometimes I feel bad being a Boston sports fan when
• 13:11
  my team stink, but hey, it's never as bad as if you're a
• 13:13
  Mavericks fan right now. But anyway, 33 and 36 on the
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  air, Pacers 38 and 29 playing pretty well.
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  Mavericks have lost three straight.
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  Pacers have won three of their last four.
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  So in terms of the side we have seen this line move toward,
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  Pacers open as low as -8 1/2. They're up to -10 1/2.
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  But I'm going to focus on the total in this one.
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  And this is my overplay of the night.
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  I'm looking for points in this one.
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  First thing that jumped out to me, this total ticked up.
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  This total opened around two 33233 1/2.
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  It's now been but up to 234, even 234 1/2 at some shops.
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  I was able to find over 233 1/2 -, 112 at FanDuel.
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  So again, Lam's 234. You want to cash that ticket,
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  but we've seen the total tick up.
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  We have a contrarian play at DraftKings.
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  This is interesting. Only 47% of bets, but 62% of
• 14:04
  dollars are on this over. So good low bets, higher dollar
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  split. 80% of bets, 87% of dollars are on the over at
• 14:11
  Circa. Both these teams are decently
• 14:13
  rested. Mavs haven't played since the
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  16th. Indiana hasn't played since the
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  17th. 1st matchup we saw this, the Pacers win 134 to 127.
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  So we're getting more of the same in terms of some points.
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  We got three over refs Bill Kennedy, Sheree Mitchell, and
• 14:30
  Jason Goldenberg all between 4051% and 54% to the over.
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  Then you look at some analytics pace.
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  Both are top 15, Indiana's 9th, Dallas is 14th offensive
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  efficiency, Indiana is 8th, Dallas is 12th defensive
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  efficiency, Dallas is 23rd, Indiana is 15th.
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  So bottom 15. And then also I got some betting
• 14:54
  system matches non conference overs this year.
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  Pretty simple system, but it is 196 and 163 this year, 55%, four
• 15:03
  percent ROI and over that rises at least 1/2 point total goes up
• 15:07
  half point play the over. That's 54% this year, 2 1/2
• 15:11
  percent ROI. Non division over in which the
• 15:14
  total stays the same or rises. Combination of both systems, 54
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  percent, 4% ROI. So all those systems are
• 15:21
  matching with this over. And last but not least, we have
• 15:24
  a 20% sharp mush edge in favor of the over.
• 15:29
  So at juice rail, 20% of the sharper winning batters are
• 15:32
  playing the over as opposed to the losing batters who are
• 15:34
  leaning more toward the under. So this is a game for me.
• 15:37
  I'm looking for points. You look at some of these box
• 15:39
  scores, you know, last game against Philly, Mavs lost 1:30
• 15:44
  to 1:25. Last game went to OT for the
• 15:46
  Pacers, but they won 132 to 130. Let's get both teams into the
• 15:51
  one 20s. How about that?
• 15:52
  And maybe we can catch this one. So give me the over again.
• 15:55
  Go to FanDuel, 233 1/2 -, 115 at FanDuel.
• 16:00
  So that about does it for episode 240 of the ASG pod.
• 16:03
  I actually got to go get my haircut.
• 16:05
  I didn't tell you guys this, but this weekend I'm going to
• 16:07
  Baltimore. I know it's March Madness but my
• 16:09
  cousin's getting married so I had to get my hair cut before
• 16:12
  the wedding. I want to mention as always,
• 16:14
  download Rhythm and Juice Reel is going to be the very very
• 16:16
  short final synopsis here, but download Rhythm and Juice Reel.
• 16:20
  Go to Amazon.com and buy my book The Everything Guide to Sports
• 16:23
  Betting. pre-order my new book The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
• 16:27
  Also, if you need a live odds page, go to oddslogic.com/josh
• 16:31
  123 and get 50% off your first month and a 7 day free trial.
• 16:35
  Also, if you enjoy the pod, give it a five star review on Amazon,
• 16:39
  on Spotify, iTunes, any any way you get your platform or
• 16:43
  platform you use for podcasts nowadays.
• 16:46
  And as always, I'll leave you a couple things.
• 16:48
  Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 16:51
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 16:54
  Sundown in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
• 16:57
  Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
• 16:59
  Massachusetts or the Nash. We're out in the desert where
• 17:02
  the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
• 17:05
  runners where the lowest use possible sound at the South
• 17:06
  Point or sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 17:09
  stadium swimming pool when they catch a big ticket at Circa,
• 17:12
  wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
• 17:14
  and dear God, show me, show me please, that you got the under
• 17:17
  138 1/2 for that Saint Francis game.
• 17:20
  What a crazy ending to the the Miracle Pass.
• 17:22
  Like thank God it didn't go to overtime.
• 17:24
  But anyway, guys, first one's on me.
• 17:26
  Next one's on you will post about the book.
• 17:28
  Sweat Sharp contrarian plays all night long.
• 17:30
  So 1 and 2, two and one, O and three, three and O.
• 17:33
  The model. The blueprint never changes.
• 17:36
  Keep on grinding guys. Making bets with our head and
• 17:38
  not our heart, against the public, with the house, with the
• 17:40
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
• 17:43
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 17:46
  So get ready, fill out your brackets, get them in before
• 17:49
  noon tomorrow. Guys.
• 17:50
  Sorry this pod was a little bit short, but again, I'm up against
• 17:53
  it. Got to get my hair cut so I can
• 17:55
  look decent at the wedding at my cousin's wedding this weekend,
• 17:58
  but wish you guys all the best tonight.
• 18:00
  Keep on grinding. And then we right back at it for
• 18:02
  a March Madness edition. Hopefully I'll get the pot out a
• 18:04
  little bit early tomorrow, although it'll be episode 241 of
• 18:08
  the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
• 18:11
  Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
• 18:13
  So we can get two out of these three totals tonight.