Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 10

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NFL Gambling Recap | Week 10 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:14
Speaker 1: is our NFL Week ten Sunday recap episode. I am
0:19
Speaker 1: Chad Millman. I am joined by my bff, my companion,
0:22
Speaker 1: Mike and Padre my co host professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
0:28
Speaker 1: Everyone is here with us watching us sweat the end
0:32
Speaker 1: of this Washington Commander's Seattle game. People just came in
0:37
Speaker 1: to see the pain in agony in our faces with
0:41
Speaker 1: Ron Rivera having a chance to get a win or
0:45
Speaker 1: give us the cover we need, and instead he goes
0:49
Speaker 1: for the extra point.
0:50
Speaker 2: I hate him where I keep saying he's damned Dynasaur.
0:52
Speaker 2: He really is. He's the worst. And no Chad today.
0:57
Speaker 2: So I love what we do. I hate it today.
0:59
Speaker 2: It's miserable. I think I lost every one PM game
1:03
Speaker 2: and now I'm looking at hopefully going four for four
1:05
Speaker 2: in these four PM games. So that's gambling, baby, It's
1:09
Speaker 2: a never ending sweat.
1:10
Speaker 1: It really is. Right now, we are one in one.
1:14
Speaker 1: We lost the Jags, we won the lines. We're sweating.
1:18
Speaker 1: We're sweating the Commanders, and we have the Jets and
1:24
Speaker 1: Denver to go. But I do need to set the
1:26
Speaker 1: stage a little bit for how we ended up where
1:29
Speaker 1: we did, because a lot happened between Thursday, when you
1:32
Speaker 1: and I recorded the podcast and then we made our picks,
1:35
Speaker 1: and when we and Friday night. Because everyone knows who listens,
1:41
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and I were in Copenhagen last week, and
1:44
Speaker 1: we were in Copenhagen when we recorded the Friday episode.
1:48
Speaker 1: On Friday night, Mitchell and I were part of a
1:51
Speaker 1: large group of people from the Action Universe that went
1:55
Speaker 1: to dinner our last night in town. It was close
1:57
Speaker 1: to nine pm. Two tequilas, two glasses of wine into
2:02
Speaker 1: a four course tasting menu. I go to use the
2:07
Speaker 1: boys room while at the stall. Standing there, my phone
2:11
Speaker 1: buzzes against my better judgment cause I don't like to
2:14
Speaker 1: check it when I'm standing at the stall. I checked
2:17
Speaker 1: it and there's a message on the lock screen and
2:20
Speaker 1: it's from Simon and it reads can you call me
2:23
Speaker 1: as soon as possible? Now, Simon is not prone to hysterics,
2:29
Speaker 1: he's not prone to I'm and he's not a texter text. Yeah,
2:34
Speaker 1: So like Simon sending me a text when he knows
2:37
Speaker 1: I'm in Copenhagen, you call me as soon as possible.
2:41
Speaker 1: My first instinct is that he's in grave physical danger
2:44
Speaker 1: because there's something we did on the show. And so
2:47
Speaker 1: outside the bathroom door, I call you. And again, I'm
2:51
Speaker 1: in like a semi loud restaurant, and I call you
2:54
Speaker 1: when you are huffing and puffing. So I'm sure like
2:57
Speaker 1: you are being chased down some street in and I'm
3:01
Speaker 1: for some reason, me and Copenhagen, I am your only lifeline, yeah,
3:06
Speaker 1: to survival. I say, are you all right? You say yes,
3:10
Speaker 1: I'm just climbing a mountain in Hawaii. But we need
3:13
Speaker 1: to change our picks right away. So what had happened
3:18
Speaker 1: was on Thursday when we walked in, we were on
3:22
Speaker 1: Cleveland plus six and a half, Cincinnati minus six and
3:25
Speaker 1: a half, Jacksonville plus three and a half, Detroit minus
3:29
Speaker 1: two and a half, Denver seven and a half. So
3:33
Speaker 1: I call you back. You're like, we need to change
3:35
Speaker 1: your picks right away. Explain the first thing you heard.
3:39
Speaker 1: Explain the first thing you heard about Washington.
3:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, even the whole week, Chad loved Seahawks, and I
3:46
Speaker 2: was just like, there's some offish about this number. I
3:48
Speaker 2: didn't get the line all week and when I call it, Chad,
3:52
Speaker 2: I basically a big negative of living Hawaii. It takes
3:55
Speaker 2: like a year for anything to get out here, any information,
3:58
Speaker 2: So you know, it's whatever that I was eight in
4:00
Speaker 2: the morning, nine in the morning, I was going for
4:02
Speaker 2: my my like pollylocala the mountain side, and I got
4:06
Speaker 2: no bars. And you know, I finally get to an
4:09
Speaker 2: area and I get like fifteen text messages and three
4:13
Speaker 2: miss phone calls. And the first one is just basically
4:16
Speaker 2: someone telling me this so and so group is putting
4:19
Speaker 2: down seven figures on the Washington plus six and a half.
4:23
Speaker 2: Grab it before it's gone. So, being the good guy
4:27
Speaker 2: I am, before I text an am, I runners anybody,
4:30
Speaker 2: I text Chad first to give me a call because
4:33
Speaker 2: I was like, we gotta get this six and a half.
4:35
Speaker 2: I mean, Chad might have taken five minutes. This is
4:38
Speaker 2: how quick these lines move. So again I was delayed
4:40
Speaker 2: getting information. I text Chad, I sent out my own information.
4:45
Speaker 2: I was only able to get sixes and like maybe
4:47
Speaker 2: two books gave me six and a half's, but I
4:49
Speaker 2: missed the number. When Chad checked our line, it was
4:52
Speaker 2: five and a half. Like that number literally in half
4:55
Speaker 2: an hour had totally moved, and yeah it was again,
4:59
Speaker 2: I hear a lot of noise. But there's certain groups,
5:02
Speaker 2: certain guys who are like, you know, they're my idols.
5:04
Speaker 2: There are dudes I put up on a really high
5:06
Speaker 2: pedestal and when I hear they're making moves, let alone
5:09
Speaker 2: seven figure moves, it's like I got to hit my guy,
5:12
Speaker 2: Chad up. And again, I'm not always me right, I'm
5:14
Speaker 2: make stupid fucking bets like I'm an idiot, But you know,
5:18
Speaker 2: I know these contacts, I know the people I deal with,
5:21
Speaker 2: and it's like these guys make these moves they always know,
5:25
Speaker 2: like they always have a reason. And I didn't know
5:27
Speaker 2: how I was going to land on three or land
5:29
Speaker 2: on four in the Seattle game. I don't even know
5:30
Speaker 2: if it's going to They could still win a touchdown here.
5:32
Speaker 2: This game's happening live. But when these dudes take me
5:35
Speaker 2: up and I joke that these guys have time machines
5:37
Speaker 2: and they're telling me this game is gonna land on
5:39
Speaker 2: three and four, grab the six, grab the six and
5:42
Speaker 2: a half, I'm all in on it. So yeah, Chad,
5:45
Speaker 2: my guy, he trusts me, he knows that, Like I'm
5:48
Speaker 2: not fucking around especially if I'm hitting dude up at
5:50
Speaker 2: you know, eight in the morning my time, Like that's
5:52
Speaker 2: something I would never.
5:53
Speaker 1: Do to anybody, and at night in my time.
5:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And like in Chad knows, I'm always one.
5:58
Speaker 2: I'm okay with waiting for things. But if I know
6:00
Speaker 2: what number is gonna move and I know these dudes
6:02
Speaker 2: are for real, I always try to get us the
6:04
Speaker 2: best of the numbers. So yeah, like, I don't know
6:08
Speaker 2: how they do with people. And it's final now they
6:11
Speaker 2: just kicked a field goal Seattle, And like again, I
6:14
Speaker 2: don't know how they fucking do with people. Like they
6:15
Speaker 2: ask you, guys ask me all the time. How do
6:17
Speaker 2: I get these contexts in these wait.
6:19
Speaker 1: It's it's so we covered Yeah, yeah, we did it.
6:23
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's amazing.
6:26
Speaker 2: That's what I mean, though, is that these guys they
6:29
Speaker 2: just fucking know and I don't get it. It'll never
6:32
Speaker 2: make sense. But Chad knows me well enough that, like,
6:36
Speaker 2: you know, I'm gonna say, dumb shit, I'm gonna miss that.
6:39
Speaker 2: Ravens game is a great example of the Chad was
6:41
Speaker 2: dead on with that, But it was more that Chad
6:43
Speaker 2: just knows I'm trying to protect us if all their
6:45
Speaker 2: offensive linemen around the Browns, I can't put him in
6:48
Speaker 2: our contest. Chad knows how how much I care about
6:50
Speaker 2: offensive line play and when I'm hitting them up and
6:54
Speaker 2: I'm just saying to him, like, I don't care. That's
6:56
Speaker 2: five and a half. Remember Chad, you were like it's
6:58
Speaker 2: five and a half. Nowt not taking I'm like, I
6:59
Speaker 2: don't don't care. Yeah, Like these dudes are saying it's
7:02
Speaker 2: going to land on three or four. We got to
7:04
Speaker 2: take it no matter what. And I cannot believe this
7:08
Speaker 2: game landed on three. I don't I don't know how
7:10
Speaker 2: they fucking do it, man. And that's my favorite thing
7:12
Speaker 2: about this job is like I'm like all of you,
7:15
Speaker 2: like I love it. I'm in this world and I
7:17
Speaker 2: live it. But I'm always shocked about how these dudes know.
7:20
Speaker 2: And like that's my favorite part is people are shocked
7:22
Speaker 2: how I know. I don't know either, Like my model
7:25
Speaker 2: that that Detroit game, I cannot believe that Detroit game
7:27
Speaker 2: landed on three. And it's just that's my favorite part
7:29
Speaker 2: about doing this shit. It's like you make a number,
7:32
Speaker 2: you trust the number. Bet the lines at one, Bet
7:35
Speaker 2: the lines one and a half bet the lines of two,
7:36
Speaker 2: but the lines of two and a half. The game
7:38
Speaker 2: lands on three, and it's like, you know, this day suck.
7:41
Speaker 2: Me and Chad were staring oer to three in the
7:42
Speaker 2: face and here we are two and one, brothers right
7:45
Speaker 2: on course.
7:46
Speaker 1: It's so all of a sudden on Friday night, I
7:52
Speaker 1: can barely see, I'm telling it. I come out of
7:55
Speaker 1: the bathroom hallway and I tell Matt Mitchell what we're doing,
7:58
Speaker 1: and I go back into Dotactionnetwork dot com to change
8:03
Speaker 1: our contest picks. Take Cleveland out, take Cincinnati out, put
8:09
Speaker 1: Washington in. And because we took two games out, we
8:11
Speaker 1: had to add one more were in. So we ended
8:14
Speaker 1: up putting in the New York Jets. So instead of
8:17
Speaker 1: sitting here at two and two, because we with the
8:19
Speaker 1: Broncos to come on Monday night at seven and a half,
8:23
Speaker 1: we're now two and one. We would have been we
8:27
Speaker 1: would have won Cleveland, we would have won Detroit. We
8:30
Speaker 1: would have lost Cincy, we would have lost Jacksonville, we'd
8:33
Speaker 1: have Denver left. Now we're two and one. We got
8:36
Speaker 1: the Jets left, we got the Broncos left. You know,
8:40
Speaker 1: just we just need to go one on one, which
8:45
Speaker 1: I think we can do. And uh, you know it's
8:48
Speaker 1: interesting you mentioned let me, let me, let me set
8:51
Speaker 1: us up for one more second here. So uh, by
8:54
Speaker 1: the way, when I did this, Matt Mitchell was in
8:56
Speaker 1: the middle of eating five plates of beef tartar by himself.
9:02
Speaker 2: Poor wife. I can't imagine you crop dustin man.
9:05
Speaker 1: Listen. I had a full date with Matt Mitchell and
9:09
Speaker 1: his wife Karen. They are lovely, beautiful people. I made
9:14
Speaker 1: them go sicing with me and Copenhagen because we had
9:16
Speaker 1: afternoon fights and they were such troopers that got out
9:19
Speaker 1: of the hotel. We saw castles and gardens and had
9:21
Speaker 1: a traditional Danish meal. It was amazing. As a reminder,
9:25
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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, please
10:12
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
10:14
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, Jacksonville loser, Detroit winner,
10:20
Speaker 1: Washington winner, Jets minus a half, Denver plus seven and
10:26
Speaker 1: a half. The games we passed one more time, Cleveland
10:29
Speaker 1: six and a half, Cincy six and a half. All right,
10:33
Speaker 1: let's talk about the jackson first. Let's get out, Let's
10:35
Speaker 1: get out of the way. It's an interesting team. We
10:40
Speaker 1: we just missed it. I mean, I think we were.
10:43
Speaker 1: We were banking on the Jags and the streak they've
10:47
Speaker 1: been on looking good. We're huge Doug Peterson fans. Doug
10:52
Speaker 1: Peterson teams played better in the second half of the year.
10:55
Speaker 1: We thought there might be lingering issues with Brod Purdy.
10:59
Speaker 1: The IU did with the Jackson been doing to lose games,
11:01
Speaker 1: which is a lot of bad turnovers. And I think
11:05
Speaker 1: we missed the most important element, which was Deebo Samuel.
11:12
Speaker 1: Like it's so clear he was out the past three games.
11:15
Speaker 1: They lose those games. He's such a weapon, such a
11:19
Speaker 1: multi tooled weapon from every position, whether he's lining up
11:22
Speaker 1: in the backfield, lining up in the slot, lining up wide,
11:26
Speaker 1: he just makes the key plays and gives Brock Purdy
11:29
Speaker 1: that that element that makes him such a better player, right,
11:33
Speaker 1: And so we just missed it. We undervalued Deebo Samuel.
11:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the blame for this one because I
11:40
Speaker 2: said I wouldn't let us put this in if if
11:41
Speaker 2: Trent Williams was back, and he was back, and I
11:44
Speaker 2: still let us put it in. So yeah, that was
11:47
Speaker 2: total blind spot on me. Look, but like I said,
11:49
Speaker 2: I was terrible today, Like my one PM picks were horrible.
11:53
Speaker 2: I could not pick a winner. Thank god we only
11:56
Speaker 2: had one in the contest because it's like like I
11:58
Speaker 2: just said, I went for for in the Lake game.
12:00
Speaker 2: And that's that's the difference right now for us where
12:03
Speaker 2: yeah got away from what got us here? These divisional
12:07
Speaker 2: jogs like I shouldn't have doubted chat on that Cleveland number.
12:10
Speaker 2: But yeah, the worst one. Again. I feel bad for
12:13
Speaker 2: people that listen to the show. It's like, I love
12:15
Speaker 2: the Bengals, and then, like Chad said, I hit him up.
12:18
Speaker 2: I told them I'm out on the Bengals because of
12:19
Speaker 2: I thought there's gonna be no Chase and no Higgins.
12:21
Speaker 2: So you know, got really lucky. Didn't matter right, Chase played,
12:25
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown, had a great game, had game, but
12:29
Speaker 2: got out of that game. Another game I liked early
12:32
Speaker 2: in the week that we luckily we avoided the Saints.
12:35
Speaker 2: I love the Saints. Yes, heard from really sharp people
12:38
Speaker 2: they liked Minnesota. I'm like, all right, I'll keep my betting.
12:43
Speaker 2: I'll have my bets on it, but I'm not going
12:45
Speaker 2: to bet it more. And I wouldn't. I didn't even
12:46
Speaker 2: bring it up to chat for our contest. We wake
12:48
Speaker 2: up this morning, Chris Raybaund's on the vikings as well,
12:51
Speaker 2: and it's just like, okay, so that was a good read.
12:54
Speaker 2: The only one we missed on, which I think, you know,
12:57
Speaker 2: I don't blame us for it because we're big in
13:00
Speaker 2: luck rankings, was Pittsburgh. Like we like Pittsburgh. We talked
13:03
Speaker 2: Sunday night about Pittsburgh. Everything we said about Green Bay
13:07
Speaker 2: feels like it was true that, like Jordan Love, if
13:10
Speaker 2: you need him to drive the field the end of
13:11
Speaker 2: the game, you have no confidence, you have no faith.
13:14
Speaker 2: And I almost ate those words because the guy almost
13:16
Speaker 2: drove the field to win the game at the end.
13:18
Speaker 2: But it is what it feels like. We kind of
13:21
Speaker 2: at this at this point of the season, right, chat,
13:23
Speaker 2: We kind of keep saying these teams are what they are, right, Yeah,
13:26
Speaker 2: every week's a little different, but you know, everyone feels
13:29
Speaker 2: the same. How did we not take Dallas? We knew
13:31
Speaker 2: exactly how that game was gonna go. I said it
13:33
Speaker 2: our Sunday more. I told you I didn't know a
13:34
Speaker 2: single professional, not one professional. All the people I talked
13:38
Speaker 2: to said the Giants this week. So I didn't know
13:40
Speaker 2: a single person that had money on the Giants, and
13:44
Speaker 2: that that should have been Tailtales signed. So yeah, brillly pissed.
13:48
Speaker 2: I kept the Jaguars in because there was other games
13:51
Speaker 2: we had in the back of our mind. And its
13:52
Speaker 2: just I should have known better, right, Because like you
13:55
Speaker 2: just said, the forty nineers have been playing bad. They
13:59
Speaker 2: were due for having a good game they're a really
14:00
Speaker 2: good team, and the Jaguars on the other side, they
14:03
Speaker 2: would due for a bad game, like they had been
14:04
Speaker 2: winning all these really close games, and I think they
14:07
Speaker 2: had won five straight or six straight up to that point.
14:10
Speaker 2: Everything went wrong in that game, right. They had all
14:12
Speaker 2: bad turnovers, bad fumbles, bad penalties, Their defense was getting stops.
14:18
Speaker 2: It was still ten to nothing, and it was ten
14:19
Speaker 2: to three, and their defense was still getting them the
14:21
Speaker 2: ball back. And Trevor just couldn't put a drive together.
14:23
Speaker 2: He just completely did not have it today. So yeah,
14:26
Speaker 2: sorry everyone, that was a horrible bet.
14:28
Speaker 1: It's interesting, Trevor Lawrence. There are times hen there's a
14:35
Speaker 1: big difference to me between the development of Trevor Lawrence,
14:39
Speaker 1: the development of Jalen Hurts, the development of Justin Herbert,
14:43
Speaker 1: like even the development of Tua. He has yet to
14:48
Speaker 1: rise to the level of being discussed as an elite
14:52
Speaker 1: quarterback yet, and I think we keep waiting for him
14:54
Speaker 1: to get there. We keep saying his flashes, his flashes,
14:58
Speaker 1: but like he's not putting it to And also when
15:01
Speaker 1: you watch him throw, he doesn't throw with the same velocity,
15:06
Speaker 1: the same accuracy that guys like Justin Herbert or TUA
15:12
Speaker 1: in terms of accuracy, do.
15:15
Speaker 2: Like they're older though they've been in the league longer.
15:19
Speaker 2: I'm with you, though I'm disappointed to what Trevor did today,
15:22
Speaker 2: But at the same time, it's like I still gonna
15:25
Speaker 2: keep giving him time because he has the body of
15:27
Speaker 2: the body frame, the talent, the arm, talent, the head,
15:30
Speaker 2: and he is the coaching Doug Peterson. But I'm with you,
15:32
Speaker 2: like I feel like we keep seeing him in big
15:35
Speaker 2: games not living up to the moments, and this was
15:37
Speaker 2: a big game today, Like you want to measure yourself
15:39
Speaker 2: against the best teams in the league, and now, like
15:43
Speaker 2: you know, obviously they won't see each other the playoffs
15:44
Speaker 2: turing different divisions, But is it not going to make
15:47
Speaker 2: you more hesitant to take him against a team like Safe?
15:50
Speaker 2: They have to play Houston in the first round, and
15:53
Speaker 2: Houston's a team that today went on the road, had
15:56
Speaker 2: a huge win. And CJ just keeps coming from behind
15:58
Speaker 2: the end of these games and having these drives, And
16:00
Speaker 2: it's like, that's what I'm agreeing with you about, where
16:02
Speaker 2: it's like Trevor's not having these moments that CJ is
16:05
Speaker 2: and CJ's kind of guy now where it's like, I mean,
16:09
Speaker 2: you know, again, I don't want to beat up these
16:11
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers fans, but it's like you missed the once
16:15
Speaker 2: in every five to ten year guy, And that's got
16:17
Speaker 2: to be sickening to you because the shit CJ is
16:20
Speaker 2: doing as a rookie, like you just don't. You don't
16:22
Speaker 2: see guys at four or five years in the league
16:23
Speaker 2: do these kind of things back to back week. So
16:26
Speaker 2: it is crazy right now, has been.
16:29
Speaker 1: He's the kind of player where it doesn't matter the scenario,
16:33
Speaker 1: whether he's dropping back or scrambling. Every time he throws
16:36
Speaker 1: the ball, you believe before the camera gets to where
16:41
Speaker 1: the ball is going that the player he's throwing to
16:45
Speaker 1: is wide open or the ball is going to be
16:47
Speaker 1: absolutely pin point perfect.
16:51
Speaker 2: Well, I just love you threw that really bad pick
16:52
Speaker 2: that was almost a pick six, came right back exactly,
16:56
Speaker 2: And I told you, like we did a rank in
16:57
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago with Cowhard and that was
16:59
Speaker 2: my rankings about guys who can throw pick sixes and
17:01
Speaker 2: just bounce back. And like he's got that moxie as
17:05
Speaker 2: a rookie. It's mind blowing. Like I just, man, I
17:09
Speaker 2: really hope Houston doesn't ruin this guy in the future
17:11
Speaker 2: because they really do have such a rare talent. Like
17:15
Speaker 2: the kid is just so cool, it's crazy, like really
17:18
Speaker 2: is like today today's games are so much fun, and
17:21
Speaker 2: he's if he keeps playing this way. I mean, obviously'll
17:24
Speaker 2: uin Rookie of your year, but how can you not
17:26
Speaker 2: talk about him for MVP like you think about.
17:29
Speaker 1: It's in my notes, I wrote it down. I'm like,
17:31
Speaker 1: you have to have a conversation right now about we
17:34
Speaker 1: might have to say Stroud as MVP.
17:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, cause it's just it's again, it's really hard to
17:41
Speaker 2: be consistent in football, especially as teams get more film
17:43
Speaker 2: on you and they start prepping defenses to take away
17:45
Speaker 2: what you like to do. And the fact that this
17:48
Speaker 2: kid keeps producing. I mean, you saw Tampa's d today, right,
17:51
Speaker 2: Tampa completely dominated Tennessee. Right. Is Tampa's defense really that
17:55
Speaker 2: bad or CJ this good? And that's the hardest thing
17:57
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, I'm trying to guess what
17:59
Speaker 2: this kid going to be like, and it's like, well,
18:00
Speaker 2: since he's got a good deed, they should be able
18:02
Speaker 2: to scheme up and step up against him. Now, Like
18:05
Speaker 2: the guy through for over three hundred yards, and yeah,
18:08
Speaker 2: if I really do look at this year, where all
18:11
Speaker 2: these teams are kind of equal, right, and all these
18:13
Speaker 2: teams are like right there, neck and neck, and you know,
18:15
Speaker 2: last week was Lamar's week and he was the MVP,
18:18
Speaker 2: and then he loses, and there's always some there's always
18:20
Speaker 2: the next guy up. Right, this whole season, everyone's so close.
18:24
Speaker 2: If you're a writer, and he gets them either shockingly
18:28
Speaker 2: they could do it win the division or gets them
18:30
Speaker 2: the fifth seed or sixth seed in the AFC, they
18:34
Speaker 2: really should have a serious talk about CJF for MVP
18:36
Speaker 2: because he's changed that whole identity of that team and
18:40
Speaker 2: a couple of months. It's incredible, Like it really is
18:42
Speaker 2: incredible what this kid's doing.
18:43
Speaker 1: Kudos to Brandon Anderson, who, in one of our preview
18:46
Speaker 1: shows for The Favorites podcast predicted that the Texans would
18:51
Speaker 1: win the AFC South. All Right, the other game one
18:56
Speaker 1: of our winners today, Detroit minus two and a half
18:59
Speaker 1: at the Chargers. Like you said, we talked about it
19:01
Speaker 1: last Sunday. The number was one better at one better
19:07
Speaker 1: at two and a half put them the contest. Very
19:09
Speaker 1: Chalky did not get the best of the number of
19:11
Speaker 1: the contest. You know what's funny you say you were
19:15
Speaker 1: sweating this game. I never was nervous about this game.
19:18
Speaker 1: This felt like a backyard whoever has the ball last,
19:22
Speaker 1: better coach wins kind of game.
19:24
Speaker 2: It was because of the refs though. The refs.
19:26
Speaker 1: Man, I was never sweating this game.
19:28
Speaker 2: But the refs are just a refs were brutal a
19:30
Speaker 2: couple of games today, but they were really bad in
19:31
Speaker 2: this one. And anytime the Chargers needed a new first
19:35
Speaker 2: down or another set to go, they kept getting the
19:37
Speaker 2: call they needed. Not all of them was bs right.
19:40
Speaker 2: The refs were making the right calls, but a lot
19:41
Speaker 2: of them were very TICKI tack and you know, the
19:44
Speaker 2: lines look like the much better team. But this is
19:47
Speaker 2: what I'll never get about Herbert Man. How does Herbert
19:50
Speaker 2: have this game and then other games he can't make
19:51
Speaker 2: the throws like, oh man, he's just a frustrating guy.
19:56
Speaker 2: And you know they're they're wasting his career, like Ben Johnson,
20:01
Speaker 2: the guy on the other side of the ball, the
20:03
Speaker 2: Lions OC him or Eric bellenemy like the the OC
20:08
Speaker 2: for Washington. That's that's that's all the Chargers need to
20:11
Speaker 2: do is go hire one of those guys to be
20:13
Speaker 2: the new the new catch coach. And it's not against
20:15
Speaker 2: Matt Moore. I think man Matt Moore has done great
20:17
Speaker 2: with the scheme, everything he's doing with Kellen Moore, Kellen
20:20
Speaker 2: Moore with this team. But you know, I just I
20:24
Speaker 2: can't get over how much wasted time we have here
20:26
Speaker 2: with Herbert. Like you look at his record this year
20:29
Speaker 2: in his career, He's barely five hundred, right, I think
20:32
Speaker 2: we saw some stat like that, so you know, I
20:36
Speaker 2: every like I hated betting against them today, like it
20:39
Speaker 2: was nerve wracking, especially like you know, seeing him making
20:43
Speaker 2: those big time throws. But like you said, the lines,
20:46
Speaker 2: they're the Juggernaut, they break the rules. I mean, you'll
20:49
Speaker 2: never catch me betting on an eighty percent public bet
20:52
Speaker 2: road favorite, right, that's so rare for me. It's gotta
20:55
Speaker 2: be the right situation of the Chargers have no home career,
20:58
Speaker 2: no home field advantage, and I don't know why, but
21:02
Speaker 2: this Lion's team is a short favorite. I think Emma
21:04
Speaker 2: gave us a stat about how they just cover like
21:07
Speaker 2: they're really good at being road chalk. And yeah, Evan
21:11
Speaker 2: just put in our chat Herbert twenty nine to thirty
21:14
Speaker 2: straight up in his career, dude, twenty nine and thirty.
21:17
Speaker 2: Like a guy that me and you both had in
21:20
Speaker 2: our top ten, top five quarterbacks in the league right now,
21:22
Speaker 2: So pretty embarrassing to that whole organization.
21:26
Speaker 1: A guy we bet on twenty five to one to
21:27
Speaker 1: lead the league passing yardage. Dan Campbell in his career
21:34
Speaker 1: thirty four and twenty one, So he's basically sixty two
21:37
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. One hundred and fifteen NFL coaches
21:42
Speaker 1: have had fifty plus games of experience since nineteen ninety.
21:49
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell now has the best ATS win percentage of
21:53
Speaker 1: all of them. Jared Goff continues to be the most profitable.
22:00
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna be Dennis Allen after that, which
22:01
Speaker 2: would have been funny. He's like one hundred and fortieth.
22:03
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we know that around spread.
22:07
Speaker 1: It's funny like the Saints. To me, we talked about
22:10
Speaker 1: this in the show. I don't think we were ever
22:12
Speaker 1: going to put him in the contest. We were so
22:14
Speaker 1: opposed on that.
22:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, well I liked it, but I'm saying I just
22:19
Speaker 2: by by Saturday morning, I'd heard like a bunch of
22:21
Speaker 2: people were coming on this Viking steam. Now I was
22:22
Speaker 2: just like, you know what, I'm just missing it. So yeah,
22:25
Speaker 2: luckily we didn't even talk about that this morning.
22:27
Speaker 1: Jared Goff continues to be the most profitable quarterback in
22:30
Speaker 1: the NFL past five twenty and six against the spread
22:34
Speaker 1: the last two seasons.
22:37
Speaker 2: And.
22:39
Speaker 1: You just you can't help but love this team.
22:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're so fun.
22:44
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell going forward consistently on fourth down, Yeah, side
22:48
Speaker 1: the five, it's just because he has so much There's
22:51
Speaker 1: such a difference between the way Brandon Staley goes forward
22:55
Speaker 1: on fourth down and the way Dan Campbell goes for
22:58
Speaker 1: it on fourth down. Dan Campbell will do it, and
23:01
Speaker 1: then we'll call a play that tells you I believe
23:05
Speaker 1: in you. Do you know what I mean? Brandon Staley
23:07
Speaker 1: will do it, and he will someone will call a
23:10
Speaker 1: play because he's not calling the office of plays that
23:12
Speaker 1: basically says I'm nervous and I'm tight, and like, I
23:17
Speaker 1: think at one point it was a fourth and five
23:20
Speaker 1: or third and nine and they called a run and
23:24
Speaker 1: was basically saying, block the fuck out of people, guys,
23:27
Speaker 1: and we'll get the first down. And that's exactly what
23:29
Speaker 1: they did. And they're an awesome team to watch now
23:33
Speaker 1: They're seven and two, and it's hard not to look
23:37
Speaker 1: at the NFC and think, Okay, the class of the
23:41
Speaker 1: NFC right now is the Eagles and the Lions. And
23:44
Speaker 1: the Lions are actually playing a little bit better and
23:47
Speaker 1: probably healthier than the Eagles. Right now, I.
23:50
Speaker 2: Still got them third. I still got the Eagles forty
23:52
Speaker 2: nine ers then like literally a hair ahead of Dallas.
23:57
Speaker 2: So if it's Dallas, I mean, I can't believe about
24:00
Speaker 2: to say this, but it who the hell are the
24:03
Speaker 2: Lions to begin to respect in the playoffs somewhere they
24:05
Speaker 2: haven't been in like years. If if the Lions are
24:09
Speaker 2: more than two and a half three favorite over Dallas, guys,
24:14
Speaker 2: you already know I'm gonna be on Dallas Like that's
24:17
Speaker 2: just that's gonna be too much, too much respect to
24:19
Speaker 2: this Lions team, even even in a home playoff game.
24:22
Speaker 2: So I do get you're coming from. They they have
24:24
Speaker 2: a chance to be the one seed. I mean, that's that.
24:28
Speaker 2: That to that to them, that has to be everything,
24:31
Speaker 2: because I mean I might make them a four and
24:35
Speaker 2: a half five point dog in Philadelphia in January, and
24:39
Speaker 2: I probably would make them the same number in San Francisco.
24:43
Speaker 2: So they have to get that one seed or they're
24:45
Speaker 2: they're dead, like they just they have to get that
24:47
Speaker 2: one seed. They need golf indoors at home. Like we've
24:51
Speaker 2: seen the splits him indoors versus outdoors. We've seen the
24:53
Speaker 2: difference between him at home than outdoors. They got to
24:57
Speaker 2: get the one seat. So yeah, like the lines that
25:00
Speaker 2: that win this this week, not to dictate their whole season,
25:05
Speaker 2: but they couldn't lose this game. They needed to beat
25:07
Speaker 2: a good team on the road. And now if you
25:09
Speaker 2: look at the rest of their schedule, I mean, especially
25:12
Speaker 2: in your division, like you need that, you need that
25:15
Speaker 2: for them, they got an easy division. They needed to
25:18
Speaker 2: win this kind of road game. So yeah, Lions fans,
25:20
Speaker 2: Cloud nine, I mean, don't listen to assholes like me.
25:22
Speaker 2: You think your team's the best team in NFC. Believe it.
25:24
Speaker 2: Like you guys are playing like the best team. It's
25:27
Speaker 2: just I gotta be real with you. It's just if
25:29
Speaker 2: golf is outdoors in January, I am not betting on that. Man,
25:34
Speaker 2: Love Love.
25:35
Speaker 1: As we've said, the NFL is better with Dan Campbell
25:39
Speaker 1: in it, and I feel like we're gonna get because
25:42
Speaker 1: of this season, We're gonna get at least two to
25:45
Speaker 1: three more years of Dan Campbell.
25:48
Speaker 2: Let me tell you something I got.
25:52
Speaker 1: We can skip over Washington. We did a lot of
25:55
Speaker 1: talking about Washington. You know, we washed it live. We
25:58
Speaker 1: sweated it live, We won it live. Recap for other picks, Foxhole,
26:04
Speaker 1: Jacksonville plus three, Simon says, Cincinnati minus six and a half.
26:10
Speaker 1: Executive decision, Cleveland plus six. Our big balls is the
26:15
Speaker 1: Jets plus one survivor.
26:17
Speaker 2: There we go.
26:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we got that right, Matt. Is that
26:20
Speaker 1: what we talked about?
26:21
Speaker 2: Ye?
26:23
Speaker 1: Survivor is Dallas Round Robin, Jets, Jags No, Cleveland, yes, Minnesota. Yes.
26:32
Speaker 1: So we got a chance to go four out of
26:33
Speaker 1: five here. Now.
26:35
Speaker 2: Round Robin's been good this year, even though it's been
26:37
Speaker 2: tough with these dogs out right, we've had a nice
26:38
Speaker 2: run with these Ron Robins.
26:41
Speaker 1: All right, the lean for tonight, We've said it, We've
26:44
Speaker 1: said it many times. We're on the Jets. We got
26:48
Speaker 1: the Jets in the contest. Go j E t s
26:52
Speaker 1: anything to add there?
26:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, we need it. We need the Jets defensive show up.
26:57
Speaker 2: I mean talk about a day where uh, you know,
27:01
Speaker 2: Ben bad quarterbacks and we need we need Zach Wilson
27:05
Speaker 2: to come through or Russell Wilson.
27:06
Speaker 1: Here Monday Night football. The line has moved in our direction.
27:11
Speaker 1: We got it at seven and a half Denver plus
27:13
Speaker 1: seven and a half against Buffalo. I mean, I'm not
27:19
Speaker 1: going to bet it at seven, but I loved it
27:21
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. And I think the fact
27:22
Speaker 1: that's moved in our direction says everything we need to
27:25
Speaker 1: know about why we liked it at seven and a half.
27:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I hope it works out. Like we
27:29
Speaker 2: talked to the number didn't make sense. It felt too big,
27:32
Speaker 2: and the Bills are just they're banged up on defense.
27:36
Speaker 2: They're they're really, you know, still one of the best
27:39
Speaker 2: teams in football on offense, but you know, defensively, how
27:45
Speaker 2: can you have faith in them to get stops, let
27:47
Speaker 2: alone they're trying to cover seven and a half number.
27:49
Speaker 2: That's such a huge number. So yeah, hopefully me and
27:52
Speaker 2: Chadow'd stepping into like we did with Jaguars. Like that
27:54
Speaker 2: number felt way too big too, uh, But yeah, feels
27:59
Speaker 2: good that it's down to say and now most books,
28:01
Speaker 2: if you missed it and you're trying to still trying
28:03
Speaker 2: to make a choice, I do have this at six.
28:05
Speaker 2: So I am showing value right now on the bills,
28:09
Speaker 2: I mean on Denver. But yeah, I feel bad tell
28:11
Speaker 2: you to bet it because me and Chad both have
28:13
Speaker 2: been betting the seven and a half all week. So yeah,
28:16
Speaker 2: deal with what you want, but you know I wouldn't
28:20
Speaker 2: let the seven scarry me off, Simon.
28:22
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
28:24
Speaker 1: United States?
28:26
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28:27
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I like Game
28:30
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28:33
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28:44
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28:46
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28:50
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28:56
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29:00
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29:24
Speaker 1: all right, early week eleven spots simon. Earlier in the show,
29:28
Speaker 1: we talked about these division dogs. We talked about the
29:31
Speaker 1: opportunity to bet division dogs. You want to bet division
29:35
Speaker 1: dogs on a regular basis, because all of numbers say
29:40
Speaker 1: bet division dogs next week, the Bys, the Falcons, the Colts,
29:46
Speaker 1: the Patriots, the Saints, any bets you've made already.
29:57
Speaker 2: Now just because honestly, we were watching that Washington game
30:00
Speaker 2: to the last minute, so I really haven't. I mean this,
30:02
Speaker 2: I just opened up the app and I'm looking at the
30:05
Speaker 2: lines now. Yeah, it's it's tough because a couple ones
30:10
Speaker 2: that jump out, I feel like I might be able
30:12
Speaker 2: to get better value down the road. Like the Rams
30:14
Speaker 2: are plus two and a half right now against Seattle
30:16
Speaker 2: at home. That's going to go up right, like without
30:20
Speaker 2: knowing which if Stafford is going to play or not,
30:22
Speaker 2: and who the quarterback will be of the Rams. But
30:25
Speaker 2: that's interesting. They hung a line. So you know again,
30:28
Speaker 2: I tell you guys all the time, they take small
30:30
Speaker 2: bets right now, like they're not taking anything over, you know,
30:34
Speaker 2: a thousand bucks on these bets for the most part,
30:36
Speaker 2: so that that to me is really jumps out, like
30:40
Speaker 2: you can get Seahawks right now for under a field
30:42
Speaker 2: goal against. I mean, who's the quarterback of the Rams?
30:46
Speaker 2: Do you even know?
30:49
Speaker 1: So?
30:49
Speaker 2: I think they cut Brett Rippen, didn't they? And they
30:52
Speaker 2: added Carson Wentz.
30:53
Speaker 1: And they signed Carson Wentz and we're all hearing the
30:56
Speaker 1: same thing that the expectation is he's going to be
30:59
Speaker 1: a starting quarterback for the I want.
31:02
Speaker 2: To I want to fade the Seahawks here because I
31:05
Speaker 2: just I think they're fraudulent. But am I not supposed
31:09
Speaker 2: to take that two and a half. That's what sucks.
31:11
Speaker 2: Like I feel like I'm supposed to take the Seahawks
31:13
Speaker 2: and I can buy on my position later if it
31:14
Speaker 2: is Stafford And obviously I'm gonna love the Rams like
31:18
Speaker 2: a home divisional dog in that spot. That's a nice
31:20
Speaker 2: spot for the Rams.
31:22
Speaker 1: But well, it's divisional week. Look it's Tennessee plus uh
31:26
Speaker 1: six at Jacksonville, you know, and like it's Mike Vrabel
31:32
Speaker 1: in a spot.
31:33
Speaker 2: It's already up to six and a half.
31:35
Speaker 1: Well, great, then let's hold on because like this is
31:40
Speaker 1: no different than betting Washington plus six in Philly, do
31:45
Speaker 1: you know what I mean?
31:46
Speaker 2: It is just because it's a rookie. You have to
31:48
Speaker 2: keep remembering these quarterbacks now. And that's why, like again,
31:51
Speaker 2: I you when you're trying to get me on Tennessee
31:53
Speaker 2: this past week, and I wouldn't let you know. It
31:55
Speaker 2: was just because CJ is the unicorn, right CJ's we
31:59
Speaker 2: got to throw him out. But these rookies, Todd Bowles
32:01
Speaker 2: defense completely shut this kid down. Like Tampa completely dominated
32:06
Speaker 2: Tennessee today. And you'll see that with these rookies where
32:09
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, they might flash and pop and make
32:11
Speaker 2: all right throws, but every game you're putting up more
32:14
Speaker 2: film and they can track where it's like, okay, weill
32:18
Speaker 2: Levis throws ninety percent of his balls to the middle
32:20
Speaker 2: of the field. Let's just put everyone in the middle
32:22
Speaker 2: of the field and make them throw outside. He couldn't
32:24
Speaker 2: throw the ball outside. And it's like little things like that.
32:26
Speaker 2: I get. I don't know if that's what they did
32:28
Speaker 2: to him. I'm saying, that's how these teams take these
32:30
Speaker 2: quarterbacks away. So at first glance, I get where you're
32:32
Speaker 2: coming from. Rabel is a big divisional dog. Just wait,
32:36
Speaker 2: I think this could keep going up. Brother, I think
32:38
Speaker 2: it might be able to you might be able to
32:39
Speaker 2: get seven.
32:40
Speaker 1: What about Pittsburgh plus three and a half this week
32:47
Speaker 1: against Cleveland?
32:49
Speaker 2: It's a plus four, um bet three six five. Well,
32:52
Speaker 2: I'm grabbing it, especially that Brown's huge emotional win like
32:56
Speaker 2: they just had. We know, Pittsburgh, they muddy the water,
33:00
Speaker 2: you down in the mud, and they make you playing
33:01
Speaker 2: these close, ugly games. And yeah, I mean, I agree
33:04
Speaker 2: with the guys. They keep saying they're the luckiest team.
33:06
Speaker 2: But mean you joked, it's like they were the luckiest
33:08
Speaker 2: team in twenty nineteen, the luckiest team in twenty twenty,
33:11
Speaker 2: luckiest team whatever it was last year. At what point
33:14
Speaker 2: do you say it's not luck, it's just really good
33:16
Speaker 2: coaching and that's just what they are, right with Tomlin?
33:19
Speaker 2: Tomlin at the Helm. Yeah, exactly what. Yeah, I liked
33:22
Speaker 2: that you went to that one. I definitely am with you.
33:24
Speaker 2: I'm in line with you on that Pittsburgh number.
33:26
Speaker 1: The other one that I looked at, which I hate. Yeah,
33:32
Speaker 1: and there's part of me that things I might want
33:34
Speaker 1: to bet the other side. Historically, we played the Bears
33:38
Speaker 1: plus nine Lions. But like the Lions had been a
33:43
Speaker 1: sick dog, Cents has been so good at home.
33:46
Speaker 2: Just wait, I'll keep going up. People are gonna put
33:49
Speaker 2: that in teasers. I think I'll hit ten.
33:51
Speaker 1: Also, we think Justin Field is going to come back.
33:54
Speaker 2: I'm hoping, I mean I really am, like you know.
33:59
Speaker 1: But those were the and then the other one that
34:00
Speaker 1: stuck out to me. Houston, which area or an eight
34:05
Speaker 1: hour ago, is now at five against Arizona.
34:09
Speaker 2: Now it's five and a half at BET three, six five,
34:12
Speaker 2: So I'm just waiting, give me, give me Kyler at six.
34:16
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess, I guess some pushback would be
34:18
Speaker 2: like you know, he he he looked. He did look
34:26
Speaker 2: different today, Like right, I'm used to seeing old Kyler,
34:28
Speaker 2: and to me, it's just him being rusting. I think
34:30
Speaker 2: he'll get more comfortable as the games go along. Here.
34:32
Speaker 2: But we saw the flash, like the moment where like
34:35
Speaker 2: you know, he's about to get sacked and he does
34:37
Speaker 2: that huge loop and he runs thirty yards across the
34:39
Speaker 2: field and makes a bunch of guys miss and then
34:41
Speaker 2: throws the ball down the field. It's like, that's why
34:43
Speaker 2: this guy was a number one pick. Kyler has so
34:45
Speaker 2: much unique and unusual skill set. I think people just
34:50
Speaker 2: forget and like, no one was watching that game today, right,
34:53
Speaker 2: I'm the only one that bet that over that Arizona
34:55
Speaker 2: Atlanta game. So I had that on my big TV
34:57
Speaker 2: and like I'm locked in on it, and and you know,
35:01
Speaker 2: Arizona does stink. But Chad just said it, we're getting
35:05
Speaker 2: them in a really big number here like this, this
35:09
Speaker 2: is this is too big. We've seen this Houston team
35:13
Speaker 2: play close, right, they usually played down to their competition.
35:16
Speaker 2: I mean they lost to Carolina Panthers. They they played
35:20
Speaker 2: a really close game against the Buccaneers. Like I'm with you, Chad,
35:25
Speaker 2: Like to me, you know, I'm gonna bet this five
35:27
Speaker 2: and a half just in case it does go down,
35:29
Speaker 2: but like, if this gets the six, it's you know,
35:34
Speaker 2: it's been a couple of weeks, but this might be
35:35
Speaker 2: one of my bigger bets if this gets up to six,
35:37
Speaker 2: because that's just that's just too much respect to CJ
35:40
Speaker 2: in this Houston team, where I do think they're really
35:42
Speaker 2: good and he's incredible, but come on, man, like him
35:47
Speaker 2: catching six against Kyler, Like that's too much disrespect to Kyler.
35:51
Speaker 1: That that's the Texas might be one of those teams
35:55
Speaker 1: that has had the biggest swing in power rating maybe
36:00
Speaker 1: in the past five years in the middle of a season.
36:02
Speaker 2: I would say week the week, though, their power ratings
36:05
Speaker 2: week the week are really hard to do because, like
36:06
Speaker 2: I just said, they they look like complete dog shit
36:09
Speaker 2: against the Panthers, it was bizarre. Right now, he's had
36:14
Speaker 2: back to back weeks where I think he's what put
36:16
Speaker 2: up more than thirty points CJ again.
36:17
Speaker 1: And look that Cincinnati game. That defense, by the way,
36:21
Speaker 1: we were pretty high on that defense.
36:23
Speaker 2: They're really good.
36:24
Speaker 1: And so he did something against the defense on the
36:28
Speaker 1: road that was ready to kind of.
36:30
Speaker 2: And they had three turnovers like they used to in
36:33
Speaker 2: three turnovers and they still won that game.
36:35
Speaker 1: And that's a top five pass rush, like grading out
36:38
Speaker 1: as a top five pass rush, which leads to Cincinnati
36:43
Speaker 1: is a three and a half point dog at Baltimore
36:46
Speaker 1: this week. I'm a little worried about Trey Hendrickson. We
36:49
Speaker 1: don't know what happened to him at the end of
36:51
Speaker 1: the game. Yeah so, but Cincinnati getting the hook at Baltimore.
36:55
Speaker 2: Right now, it's up to four brother, about three six five.
37:00
Speaker 2: I don't know what to deal with it because it's
37:02
Speaker 2: a short week. It's a Thursday, and you know.
37:07
Speaker 1: Those games, I just hate that.
37:11
Speaker 2: I always favorite the home team on the Thursday because
37:13
Speaker 2: it's a short week. They don't need to travel. That's
37:17
Speaker 2: a big deal when you're trying to heal your body, right,
37:19
Speaker 2: Like there, they get to be at home, especially as
37:22
Speaker 2: you get later into the season here, you know, before
37:26
Speaker 2: before before today, I probably had that set three and
37:30
Speaker 2: now without T Higgins And like you said, the Bengals
37:34
Speaker 2: might have some injuries to some key players on their defense.
37:39
Speaker 2: I would say the four is about right, Jad like
37:41
Speaker 2: this probably should be four, four and a half just
37:43
Speaker 2: because it is such a short turnaround. And the Ravens
37:47
Speaker 2: they're really good. I know they didn't look at today right,
37:50
Speaker 2: their defense didn't show up today, But throughout the season
37:53
Speaker 2: their defense has been really good. So you know what,
37:56
Speaker 2: what what unit do I have more faith in bouncing
37:59
Speaker 2: back after a bad showing Between these two defenses, Yeah,
38:02
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Ravens, So especially them at home.
38:05
Speaker 2: We know how on more plays at home compared to
38:07
Speaker 2: on the road. So not shocking to see that number
38:11
Speaker 2: move up to four, because, like Chatty said, I was
38:13
Speaker 2: three and a half. Now it's showing four any other game.
38:16
Speaker 1: So we talked about Pittsburgh, We talked about Arizona quite
38:21
Speaker 1: a bit, talked about Houston.
38:25
Speaker 2: I just want to get your initial read on this
38:26
Speaker 2: because I'm obviously biased. But Chiefs minus two and a
38:30
Speaker 2: half at home against the Eagles.
38:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Eagles.
38:35
Speaker 2: Here, thank you, that's my guy love.
38:39
Speaker 1: I love the Eagles in this spot. I feel like
38:43
Speaker 1: they are performing at a higher level and more comfortable
38:48
Speaker 1: with who they.
38:48
Speaker 2: Are, especially offensively. It feels like offensively they keep getting
38:52
Speaker 2: better and better every week. This Eagles team were the Chiefs.
38:55
Speaker 2: They've just been spinning their tires now for weeks. But
38:57
Speaker 2: they've luckily been going against SUBPARP competition, like Miami should
39:01
Speaker 2: have beat them, right, doesn't feel like they stole that
39:02
Speaker 2: game from Miami where they didn't score a single point
39:05
Speaker 2: in the second half, but they still somehow beat Miami,
39:08
Speaker 2: which is crazy.
39:10
Speaker 1: By the way, there is a plus three available minus
39:17
Speaker 1: one oh five, So I am going to bet that
39:21
Speaker 1: right now before it goes away and it's gone. It's
39:26
Speaker 1: down to two and a half again. Literally literally, as
39:29
Speaker 1: I was pressing, bet changed to two and a half.
39:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's weird. They hung the three, but I get
39:36
Speaker 2: it right. The chiefs at home, you got we always
39:38
Speaker 2: talk mahomes at this number, Evan, is it up to
39:41
Speaker 2: twenty twenty nine or twenty and six whatever it is? Right?
39:45
Speaker 2: It was nineteen and six. I think now it's twenty
39:47
Speaker 2: and six. I mean, I get it. Yeah, twenty six
39:51
Speaker 2: and one. Wo scary, Chad, But it feels like the
39:56
Speaker 2: Eagles are the better team right now. I was just
39:58
Speaker 2: I was trying not to be byas so I'm I'm
40:00
Speaker 2: glad my man chat said it first.
40:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's an interesting one.
40:05
Speaker 2: All right, sucks it sucks you missed the three though.
40:07
Speaker 1: That would have been nice, I know, right, such a tease.
40:13
Speaker 1: All right, So Eagles plus two and a half, Pittsburgh
40:18
Speaker 1: plus four, Arizona. We're waiting to see if it can
40:21
Speaker 1: get to six. But you might take the five and
40:23
Speaker 1: a half, right.
40:23
Speaker 2: I already did. Yeah, I bet itive and a half.
40:28
Speaker 1: I'm curious about Chicago plus nine. I'm gonna wait to
40:32
Speaker 1: see if I can get a better number. I do
40:33
Speaker 1: feel like with a couple of these games this week,
40:37
Speaker 1: I didn't get the best of the number. I bet
40:39
Speaker 1: too quickly, So I'm going to try to be a
40:41
Speaker 1: little bit more.
40:43
Speaker 2: And just be careful of Chad because there's injuries. Brother, Like,
40:45
Speaker 2: we're at the point of the season now where like
40:48
Speaker 2: you know, I had no idea t Higgins was going
40:50
Speaker 2: to miss the game this week, like you know that
40:52
Speaker 2: that to me was a big deal. So yeah, definitely,
40:56
Speaker 2: we're getting late into the season here, people, things things change.
40:58
Speaker 2: I definitely bet the way it change where I bet
41:01
Speaker 2: a lot more now than I did early in the season.
41:04
Speaker 2: But I don't make all though. I don't push all
41:07
Speaker 2: that money until you know, Saturday midday Saturday into Sunday morning,
41:11
Speaker 2: because I want to exactly know who's going to play
41:14
Speaker 2: in every game, and we're at the point of the
41:16
Speaker 2: year where you just you don't know until that final
41:18
Speaker 2: injury report to really know who's going to play.
41:21
Speaker 1: Well that's interesting to me, like because I was wondering
41:24
Speaker 1: the same thing. When do I want to start pushing
41:27
Speaker 1: my bank roll a little bit and you are like,
41:31
Speaker 1: you're betting significantly more now than you did before the
41:35
Speaker 1: sea like earlier in the season.
41:37
Speaker 2: Well, it all depends. Like I told you, my biggest
41:39
Speaker 2: week is Week one, just because I'm able to bet
41:41
Speaker 2: it for four or five months. I'm able to get
41:43
Speaker 2: a ton of money down as soon as they open
41:44
Speaker 2: the lines. I can bet it every day if I want,
41:47
Speaker 2: and they'll take the money. Because why I went to
41:49
Speaker 2: the sportsbooks. Want to sit on your money for three
41:50
Speaker 2: four months. But yeah, week two, Week three, not as much,
41:55
Speaker 2: and then week four I started ramping up a little bit.
41:57
Speaker 2: I just remember this year. Yeah, we didn't start coming
42:01
Speaker 2: out of the gate really hot, but I just remember,
42:02
Speaker 2: like I noticed it was really favoring the favorites early
42:06
Speaker 2: in the season, and you know, normally you think that
42:09
Speaker 2: would give me pause, but it didn't gave me more
42:11
Speaker 2: confidence to put more money on certain favorites to certain spots.
42:14
Speaker 2: And you know, one of my biggest bets of the
42:16
Speaker 2: year was that Bills against Miami. The Bills were at
42:19
Speaker 2: the time, they're at home. Miami was, you know, I
42:22
Speaker 2: viewed as the best team in football. I think it
42:23
Speaker 2: was just after they'd beat Denver by seventy points. Yeah yeah,
42:27
Speaker 2: right now to date, that's probably my biggest bet, but
42:31
Speaker 2: like yeah at this point, yeah, like again, A good
42:36
Speaker 2: example of that Bengals game that took me thirty six
42:39
Speaker 2: hours to buy it up of my position because I
42:40
Speaker 2: had already put so much money into the Bengals and
42:43
Speaker 2: then I have to go back the other side. It's
42:44
Speaker 2: a pain in the ass. Yeah, So like that's why
42:47
Speaker 2: I'm like not just saying it to chat, I'm saying
42:48
Speaker 2: it to myself, where it's like I got to stop
42:50
Speaker 2: betting so much earlier in the week. There's just so
42:53
Speaker 2: many unknowns and we really don't know who's hurt until
42:56
Speaker 2: you know, Thursday once, like they're really not practicing. It's like,
42:59
Speaker 2: oh shit, Skuy really might not play now. So yeah,
43:02
Speaker 2: just everyone just be careful. It's even for my own self.
43:04
Speaker 1: Be careful out there. That's all we're saying. As a
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