Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Back to Business | NHL Stanley Cup Finals + MLB & WNBA | 6/2/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Back to Business | NHL Stanley Cup Finals + MLB & WNBA | 6/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
0:19
Speaker 1: your chips.
0:20
Speaker 2: The black coffee on the felt.
0:22
Speaker 1: Man, you look like a Mence three teen Parlette turned
0:27
Speaker 1: the dust in your head. Now you stare at the
0:30
Speaker 1: chips like they made you this man.
0:33
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet?
0:35
Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
0:38
Speaker 1: something on somebody for show?
0:41
Speaker 2: Put the glass.
0:42
Speaker 3: Down, baby, look at me. Now, hold on, hold on nothing.
0:54
Speaker 4: Nice not now, hold on, Hold on me, but it don't.
1:11
Speaker 2: Get the crown.
1:14
Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
1:19
Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you with
1:30
Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports for Tuesday, June second. The only play that
1:36
Speaker 2: I gave out on the show yesterday after I was
1:38
Speaker 2: gonna give out nothing was Cincinnati Red's run line. It
1:43
Speaker 2: was largely dependent on Chase Burns being the starter. He
1:46
Speaker 2: might be hurt or something because he got scratched and
1:49
Speaker 2: he is not listed in their upcoming schedule and he's
1:53
Speaker 2: not on the injured list or anything either, So I
1:55
Speaker 2: don't know what that was. But hopefully if you made
1:58
Speaker 2: that play, hopefully you specified starting pitchers must start, which
2:02
Speaker 2: is the default. And I don't know if I made
2:04
Speaker 2: that clear. But that was one where yeah, you didn't
2:07
Speaker 2: really know who was gonna start for Kansas City because
2:09
Speaker 2: it looked like it could be a bullpen game. But
2:11
Speaker 2: they actually had their listed starter actually went like five
2:14
Speaker 2: innings or something, their reliever who was their starter. But
2:18
Speaker 2: obviously you needed Burns to start that game if you're
2:20
Speaker 2: gonna make that play, so you would have had to
2:22
Speaker 2: have specified Burns must start the game. I think you
2:25
Speaker 2: could specify one team as well, like this starter must start,
2:29
Speaker 2: but I don't care about the other starter, but I
2:32
Speaker 2: think by default the listed starters must start for both teams,
2:38
Speaker 2: so hopefully that's what you did. It was a no
2:40
Speaker 2: play assuming that you did do that, which is the default. Obviously,
2:46
Speaker 2: again we had to specify it, like you know, I mean,
2:50
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what else to say about that,
2:52
Speaker 2: but yeah, I don't know, I'm rambling here, all right,
2:55
Speaker 2: But yeah, it was a no play as long as
2:57
Speaker 2: long as you went with the default bet on that
3:00
Speaker 2: starting pitchers listed must start, then you got your money back.
3:04
Speaker 2: Because Burns did not pitch, so it was a no play.
3:07
Speaker 2: I should have just not even played it, but I
3:11
Speaker 2: kind of liked it, as I thought about it more.
3:13
Speaker 2: But whatever, hopefully Burns is okay, let's talk about baseball here,
3:19
Speaker 2: and I guess well I could mention I don't know
3:20
Speaker 2: the NFL trades that I've been going on here. The
3:23
Speaker 2: AJ Brown won AJ Brown to the Patriots. We knew
3:25
Speaker 2: that was going to happen. When I did my NFL preview,
3:29
Speaker 2: I already assumed that was going to happen. Miles Garrett
3:32
Speaker 2: was more of a surprise. That was an interesting trade.
3:36
Speaker 2: Browns are playing for the future right now, even though
3:38
Speaker 2: they suck at drafting, but they made that trade. The
3:42
Speaker 2: Rams are trying to win right now, so that made
3:44
Speaker 2: sense for the Rams bolster their deepfense. The Rams are
3:48
Speaker 2: definitely gonna be in contention again this year, man, as
3:52
Speaker 2: I already mentioned that in my NFL season preview as well.
3:54
Speaker 2: I had the Rams being a playoff team and being
3:58
Speaker 2: one of the top two teams in their vision. I
4:00
Speaker 2: think Seattle actually might take a little bit of a
4:03
Speaker 2: step back from what they did last season. I like
4:06
Speaker 2: the Rams and the forty nine ers a little bit
4:08
Speaker 2: better than Seattle, but that is a powerhouse division. Except
4:12
Speaker 2: for the Cardinals, I think the other three teams are
4:15
Speaker 2: fairly likely to make the playoffs. All right, Detroit and
4:19
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay in baseball, let's go. We're gonna have a
4:24
Speaker 2: full baseball slate today. There's WNBA Cup bullshit. I almost
4:29
Speaker 2: had a WNBA play, but I don't like the numbers,
4:32
Speaker 2: so I'm not gonna do it. And then I'm not
4:34
Speaker 2: going to have a play in the hockey game. But
4:36
Speaker 2: there is Stanley Cup final action tonight as well. All right.
4:40
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay and Detroit played yesterday. It was a very
4:42
Speaker 2: high scoring game. Detroit actually got the win ten to nine.
4:47
Speaker 2: And Detroit went with a bullpen game yesterday, I believe,
4:50
Speaker 2: so they used basically all of their relief pitchers. Tampa
4:53
Speaker 2: Bay used fewer of theirs. So I'll give Tampa Bay
4:56
Speaker 2: a bullpen edge year because they're more rested, although neither
4:59
Speaker 2: bullpen has been very good. Tampa Bay is nineteenth, Detroit
5:03
Speaker 2: twenty third based on whip. Tampa Bay's era is worse
5:06
Speaker 2: than that, though, But I think Tampa Bay does have
5:09
Speaker 2: a little bit of a bullpen edge here, not much.
5:12
Speaker 2: They have a bigger offensive edge. They're tied in seventh
5:15
Speaker 2: offensively based on ops. Detroit is twenty seventh. Detroit's just
5:21
Speaker 2: falling off a cliff offensively, even though they did put
5:23
Speaker 2: up a bunch of runs yesterday. Jack Flaherty's getting the
5:27
Speaker 2: start for Detroit here. You know, I'm not a fan.
5:29
Speaker 2: He's not very good five point eight one ERA this year,
5:33
Speaker 2: one point six to one whip. His offense behind him
5:36
Speaker 2: hasn't helped either. He's own seven really really ugly stuff.
5:39
Speaker 2: He's been worse on the road as well, six point
5:42
Speaker 2: zero four road ERA. Not a lot to like. However,
5:46
Speaker 2: he did pitch well in his last outing against Anaheim.
5:49
Speaker 2: Had nine strikeouts, one walk in five to two thirds innings.
5:52
Speaker 2: Gave up three and runs on six hits. That was
5:54
Speaker 2: not that bad. And two starts prior to that, he
5:57
Speaker 2: made it six innings, gave up four runs to Toronto,
6:00
Speaker 2: no walks, one strike or four strikeouts. I know that's Toronto.
6:04
Speaker 2: Their offense isn't that good. But Flowerty is kind of
6:07
Speaker 2: like alternated good and bad starts here, although that would
6:09
Speaker 2: indicate that this is going to be a bad start
6:11
Speaker 2: if he keeps doing that. But he is pitching better
6:14
Speaker 2: than maybe it looks like right now, at least in
6:17
Speaker 2: that he had a high strikeout rate over the month
6:19
Speaker 2: of May thirty six strikeouts and twenty seven to third
6:22
Speaker 2: innings eight walks. That was a good ratio, but he
6:24
Speaker 2: was way too hittable thirty three hits allowed, and of
6:28
Speaker 2: course Detroit lost all of his games during the month.
6:31
Speaker 2: They've lost eight games in a row that he started.
6:34
Speaker 2: I think overall, in the course of the season, his
6:36
Speaker 2: walk number is way higher. Though his walk number is
6:39
Speaker 2: bad on the course of the season, but again, he
6:41
Speaker 2: seems to be much improved in that department recently, so
6:45
Speaker 2: maybe we could overlook that a little bit. His strikeout
6:49
Speaker 2: rate is actually really high, and his hit rate is
6:51
Speaker 2: slightly bad on the course of the season, So I
6:54
Speaker 2: think Flowerty's still bad, but right now he's better than
6:58
Speaker 2: he was at the beginning of the season. He does
6:59
Speaker 2: have good numbers against the Rays and thirty nine career
7:02
Speaker 2: at bats twelve to one strike out walk ratio one
7:05
Speaker 2: seventy nine average five to eighty five ops not too bad,
7:10
Speaker 2: so he might actually match up Okay here, I still
7:12
Speaker 2: don't think I would want to trust him. Though. Steven
7:15
Speaker 2: Motts is getting the start for the Rays. They have
7:17
Speaker 2: converted him back into his starting pitcher this season. He
7:20
Speaker 2: did deal with an injury a little while ago his
7:23
Speaker 2: numbers are kind of mediocre at four point six to
7:26
Speaker 2: seventy RRA's definitely not very good. One point two four
7:29
Speaker 2: whip is not horrible. Kind of indicates that his ERA
7:32
Speaker 2: should be a little bit better than it is. He
7:34
Speaker 2: is better at home as well for era at home,
7:37
Speaker 2: so the home road splits lineup in his favor. He
7:40
Speaker 2: had a bad outing last time out against Baltimore, but
7:42
Speaker 2: maybe you give him a pass for that because he
7:45
Speaker 2: was coming back from injury. I think it might have
7:48
Speaker 2: been in that start. I know it was the previous
7:49
Speaker 2: start he came back from injury. Only went four innings
7:52
Speaker 2: in that one, but that was also against Baltimore, so
7:55
Speaker 2: Baltimore had just seen him, so that was a little
7:57
Speaker 2: bit of an advantage to Baltimore, I think after that,
8:00
Speaker 2: so Baltimore was able to hit him a little bit
8:02
Speaker 2: better than that in the next outing. He's not a
8:05
Speaker 2: lot more than four earned runs in any other start
8:07
Speaker 2: besides that, so he's not as bad as he looked
8:11
Speaker 2: in that last game. We could at least say that
8:13
Speaker 2: he's allowed fewer than one hit per inning on the season.
8:16
Speaker 2: His strikeout rates not that high. On his walk rate
8:18
Speaker 2: is a little bit too high, so there are some
8:20
Speaker 2: concerns here with them. He's an okay pitcher though against
8:25
Speaker 2: Detroit he has pretty good numbers and thirty four at
8:27
Speaker 2: bats one seventy six average, allowed six to twelve ops,
8:30
Speaker 2: six strikeouts, one walk. So the matchup numbers seem to
8:34
Speaker 2: indicate the both starting pitchers might actually do okay here.
8:39
Speaker 2: I don't know if I really want to necessarily bank
8:41
Speaker 2: on that. The totals eight and a half. There are
8:44
Speaker 2: arguments there because of the matchup numbers. There are arguments
8:47
Speaker 2: that this could be a first five under. You're kind
8:49
Speaker 2: of fading what happened yesterday. If you do that, I
8:52
Speaker 2: would not go full game if I went under, though,
8:54
Speaker 2: that's for sure, because I would not trust the bullpens
8:57
Speaker 2: at all. The money is also indicating onto Troit here.
9:01
Speaker 2: Ninety three percent of the tickets are on Tampa. The
9:03
Speaker 2: public is going to play the team with the better record,
9:06
Speaker 2: which is Tampa, and they're around minus one p thirty
9:09
Speaker 2: something on the money line, seventy six percent of the
9:12
Speaker 2: cash on Detroit though, so the money is saying Detroit
9:15
Speaker 2: in that game there. And then, of course, because of
9:19
Speaker 2: all these issues with all these odds screens, that I
9:22
Speaker 2: use Maybe I have to start buying odds logic. Man,
9:24
Speaker 2: I don't know. But then if I do that, I
9:26
Speaker 2: can't show it on here because it's a paid product,
9:29
Speaker 2: although I can kind of mention it in vague arms,
9:32
Speaker 2: you know, if I am using it. But yeah, we
9:35
Speaker 2: don't see the total percentages on this new updated screen here. Whatever. Yeah,
9:42
Speaker 2: I don't really have a strong opinion on that game.
9:44
Speaker 2: I think my best opinion on it, which is still
9:48
Speaker 2: really weak, is a first five under in that game.
9:50
Speaker 2: But I would not I still really wouldn't trust those
9:53
Speaker 2: starting pitchers though. San Diego at Philadelphia is actually a
9:56
Speaker 2: pretty interesting game on TBS. These teems did not play yesterday,
10:01
Speaker 2: so we have rested bullpens. Philadelphia was traveling back from
10:05
Speaker 2: the Pacific Coast and while they were out there, they
10:07
Speaker 2: swept San Diego. So this is a quick revenge scenario
10:12
Speaker 2: for San Diego, which a lot of times that is
10:14
Speaker 2: a factor. Like the team that lost and just got
10:17
Speaker 2: swept at home is going to be a little bit
10:19
Speaker 2: more motivated perhaps to come in and play better here,
10:22
Speaker 2: So that would be San Diego. The situation looks pretty
10:26
Speaker 2: positive for San Diego here, a negative for Philadelphia. Because
10:29
Speaker 2: Philadelphia is in the spot where they have the avenging
10:33
Speaker 2: team going up against them, they might overlook San Diego
10:36
Speaker 2: after beating them on the road in a sweep. But
10:39
Speaker 2: also Philadelphia's returning home from the road, so I always
10:41
Speaker 2: talk about this. When a team returns home from the road,
10:44
Speaker 2: they have to get back to home life. It could
10:45
Speaker 2: be a distraction. Especially when you just beat that team
10:49
Speaker 2: that you're playing, you really might overlook them. So I
10:52
Speaker 2: think it's a negative situation for Philadelphia. So that's how
10:55
Speaker 2: I started my handicap here, thinking that, you know, this
10:58
Speaker 2: is potentially a spot to place San Diego here, and
11:01
Speaker 2: even better for San Diego, they're already on the East
11:04
Speaker 2: coast because they were just in Washington, so they're only
11:07
Speaker 2: going from Washington to Philadelphia, so the travel spot is
11:10
Speaker 2: a lot better for San Diego. Here. They're already adjusted
11:12
Speaker 2: to this time zone, and they're probably going to be
11:16
Speaker 2: trying to bounce back from a loss here because they
11:18
Speaker 2: lost to Washington the last two games there. They're on
11:21
Speaker 2: a spiral though they've lost whatever this is, six of
11:24
Speaker 2: their last seven games. But the spot is definitely better
11:28
Speaker 2: for San Diego. So okay, we start the handicap there.
11:32
Speaker 2: Both bullpens are fairly good, although San Diego's is very good.
11:35
Speaker 2: They're one of the best bullpen eras in baseball, the
11:38
Speaker 2: ranked fifth in WHIP. Philadelphia is not bad at twelve,
11:42
Speaker 2: but their bullpen eray is worse, so San Diego does
11:45
Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. Offensively, both teams have struggled to
11:49
Speaker 2: a shocking degree. Philadelphia twenty eighth, San Diego twenty ninth.
11:54
Speaker 2: That's kind of crazy. So we have offenses that don't
11:57
Speaker 2: look that great here. Now we're this handicap in the
12:01
Speaker 2: situation on San Diego kind of starts falling apart a
12:04
Speaker 2: little bit. Looking at the starting pitching matchup, and you
12:07
Speaker 2: might think, well, why because Randy Vasquez has better numbers
12:10
Speaker 2: than Aaron Nola, So it looks like you should want
12:13
Speaker 2: to take San Diego. It looks like everything lines up
12:15
Speaker 2: for that. I don't actually think it does when you
12:17
Speaker 2: start digging into the matchup numbers and the you know,
12:21
Speaker 2: some of the other metrics these guys have. Yeah, Vasquez
12:24
Speaker 2: has good looking numbers this year three point two ADRA
12:27
Speaker 2: and one point two to three WHIP for San Diego,
12:30
Speaker 2: and he's also way better on the road. One point
12:32
Speaker 2: four to six Roady Ray, So those line up nicely
12:35
Speaker 2: for him to pitch. Okay, here, it doesn't make any
12:38
Speaker 2: sense to me why his homier array is so much
12:40
Speaker 2: worse when San Diego is a very pitcher friendly ballpark.
12:43
Speaker 2: But that you know, to put that aside here where
12:47
Speaker 2: this handicap starts kind of indicating that you know, at
12:50
Speaker 2: least in my opinion, I don't really want to actually
12:52
Speaker 2: make San Diego a play. Vasquez pitched in that series
12:55
Speaker 2: against Philadelphia didn't pitch that well. You give up four
12:59
Speaker 2: and runs on eight hits in five to two thirds innings,
13:01
Speaker 2: only two strikeouts one walk. Yeah, he got a little
13:04
Speaker 2: bit unlucky. He gave up three on runs in that ballpark.
13:07
Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is there, but he
13:10
Speaker 2: didn't have a very good outing. And if you look
13:11
Speaker 2: at what he's done over the last month, yeah, he
13:13
Speaker 2: has a three point seven to one ERA, which looks
13:16
Speaker 2: pretty good, but thirteen to six strikeout walk ratio is
13:19
Speaker 2: not good. Really. The strikeout rate is just is really
13:22
Speaker 2: low in twenty six to two thirds innings. Also twenty
13:25
Speaker 2: nine hits allowed. Now Vaska has usually the walks are
13:30
Speaker 2: a huge issue for him. And he has fixed that,
13:32
Speaker 2: but in doing so, he's gotten a bit more hittable.
13:35
Speaker 2: I just don't think I could trust him. Man, his
13:37
Speaker 2: numbers over the course of the season, they're not really bad.
13:40
Speaker 2: He's allowed fewer than one hit per inning. His walk
13:42
Speaker 2: rates not that bad, his strikeout rate is low. So
13:44
Speaker 2: that's kind of a concern with him, is that he's
13:47
Speaker 2: just not He doesn't have stuff that's gonna fool hitters.
13:49
Speaker 2: But then the big concern here comes not only in
13:52
Speaker 2: the fact that Philadelphia just saw him, so they're recently
13:56
Speaker 2: familiar with him because they just saw him, and they
13:58
Speaker 2: did fairly well in that game. But Philadelphia has a
14:00
Speaker 2: good track record against him anyway, in forty four at bats,
14:04
Speaker 2: four h nine, batting average a lot twelve twenty oh ps.
14:07
Speaker 2: And I think I mentioned this when we handicap those
14:10
Speaker 2: games during that series, and in fact, I think we
14:12
Speaker 2: had the same pitching matchup that we have today. Happened
14:15
Speaker 2: in that series as well, And I believe Philadelphia won
14:19
Speaker 2: that game. I believe it was the four to three win.
14:22
Speaker 2: It was that game. Philadelphia obviously won that game because
14:25
Speaker 2: they swept the series, but yeah, it was the four
14:27
Speaker 2: to three Philadelphia win there, so Vazquez is not of
14:31
Speaker 2: good numbers against Philadelphia. And then it was this, I
14:34
Speaker 2: don't know what strike out walk ratio was against them.
14:37
Speaker 2: I have to keep switching it back to the team.
14:39
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, three to three not a good strike out
14:41
Speaker 2: walk ratio either. Aaron Nola getting the start for Philadelphia
14:45
Speaker 2: here he's coming back for paternity leave. So you know
14:50
Speaker 2: what I always talk about, fade the baby. I made
14:53
Speaker 2: that joke the other day because he's Louisiana. He's from Louisiana.
14:57
Speaker 2: You know his name is Nola, which is even more
14:59
Speaker 2: a kil so that he's from Baton Rouge. I was like,
15:03
Speaker 2: when he has a baby, doesn't like, doesn't come out?
15:07
Speaker 2: Does his wife give birth through a king cake? The
15:11
Speaker 2: Marty Grat cake If you guys are unfamiliar with that,
15:14
Speaker 2: Marty Grat cake is like this huge cake. There's a
15:17
Speaker 2: little plastic baby hidden in it, so it's a choking hazard.
15:22
Speaker 2: But if you find the baby, I guess it's like
15:25
Speaker 2: considered to be good lock for you or whatever. I
15:28
Speaker 2: found one once at a Marti Gras party. I got
15:30
Speaker 2: the slice of cake with the baby in it. I
15:33
Speaker 2: delivered the baby out of a cake. Man I'm basically
15:36
Speaker 2: an obgyn, all right, But anyway, enough of those jokes.
15:43
Speaker 2: Aaron Nola is coming off of paternity leave. The last
15:45
Speaker 2: time he pitched was May twenty six, so he's almost
15:50
Speaker 2: on schedule here, but his schedule starts and pushed back
15:52
Speaker 2: a little bit. Although it looks like he basically is
15:55
Speaker 2: on schedule though, because he's lining up against Vazkez again
15:58
Speaker 2: and they pitched against each other last time, so it
16:01
Speaker 2: seems like he's not off schedule. However, I have a
16:05
Speaker 2: thing where I took it from the fighting handicappers, where
16:08
Speaker 2: they have a concept of fading the baby when they're
16:11
Speaker 2: looking at like an individual sport where the individual has
16:15
Speaker 2: a huge effect on the game, and I think it
16:17
Speaker 2: does with a starting pitcher, although this hasn't worked out
16:19
Speaker 2: for me so far. We tried to do this once
16:22
Speaker 2: with Ryan Weathers and then I think I laid off it.
16:24
Speaker 2: There was another picture that I had a baby where
16:26
Speaker 2: I didn't make a play on that game. But generally
16:30
Speaker 2: the idea is when a guy has a baby, it's
16:34
Speaker 2: a distraction because you're dealing with all that you know,
16:37
Speaker 2: home life, family life, You're dealing with having to deal
16:39
Speaker 2: with the baby. Whatever, you're getting less sleep, you know
16:42
Speaker 2: what I mean. So usually it's a bit of a distraction,
16:45
Speaker 2: it's a problem, so usually you want to fade that picture.
16:47
Speaker 2: So that is something I think to be considered here.
16:51
Speaker 2: But a lot of other things look good for Nola here. Now.
16:54
Speaker 2: Some things don't look good, like his ra and his
16:56
Speaker 2: whip five point seven two ERA one point four I've whip. Yeah,
17:00
Speaker 2: those are bad numbers. He still hasn't really completely come
17:04
Speaker 2: back from his injury, but Philadelphia has won four of
17:07
Speaker 2: his last five games, and in his last outing he
17:09
Speaker 2: pitched well, and that was against San Diego in that
17:13
Speaker 2: series that I've been talking about here. He went six innings,
17:16
Speaker 2: allowed to earn runs on three hits, five strikeouts, no walks,
17:20
Speaker 2: And in fact this month he has the past month
17:23
Speaker 2: twenty one to five strike out walk ratio in twenty
17:26
Speaker 2: five and third innings. So he is pitching better recently,
17:29
Speaker 2: although he allowed twenty eight hits over that span two
17:32
Speaker 2: but generally he's pitching a bit better right now, So
17:34
Speaker 2: I think he is possibly sort of coming into form now.
17:40
Speaker 2: And I know he pitched a lot of last year
17:42
Speaker 2: and didn't do well coming back from that injury. He
17:44
Speaker 2: started pitching well at the end of the season, which
17:47
Speaker 2: led me to believe he was kind of on his
17:49
Speaker 2: way back to what he once was because he used
17:51
Speaker 2: to be a good pitcher. But you know, there are
17:54
Speaker 2: a lot of things to consider in this game. Man.
17:56
Speaker 2: Obviously he's not pitching well this season, but he seems
17:58
Speaker 2: to be pitching a little bit better. And now he
18:01
Speaker 2: pitched well against San Diego last time out. And yeah,
18:04
Speaker 2: he has good numbers against San Diego. They have one
18:06
Speaker 2: hundred of bats against him, thirty three strikeouts, two walks,
18:09
Speaker 2: one sixty average for sixteen ohbs. So Nola actually dominates
18:14
Speaker 2: San Diego historically, so in a huge sample. So I
18:19
Speaker 2: don't want to fade Nola. I don't want to fade
18:22
Speaker 2: the baby, even though there are a ton of situational
18:25
Speaker 2: aspects of this game that are very much against Philadelphia here.
18:29
Speaker 2: So that whole handicap is crazy. It's like, you have
18:32
Speaker 2: a really really crazy situational spot here to fade Philadelphia.
18:38
Speaker 2: The problem is the starting pitching matchup is to me
18:42
Speaker 2: highly against fading Philadelphia here, So I can't bring those
18:46
Speaker 2: two together, you know what I mean. So it's a
18:48
Speaker 2: pass on this game for me. You know. I mean,
18:52
Speaker 2: I guess there might be some arguments for a lower
18:56
Speaker 2: scoring game. The totals at eight. I mean, both offenses
19:02
Speaker 2: are really not that good and the bullpens are okay
19:04
Speaker 2: and the rested, so when you have teams coming off
19:07
Speaker 2: of a rest, you know, it can cool off the
19:09
Speaker 2: hitting a little bit. The travel can kind of distract
19:11
Speaker 2: a hitting a bit too. So I think it under
19:14
Speaker 2: makes some sense in this game under the aid, but
19:17
Speaker 2: I would not want to do that either. And the
19:18
Speaker 2: money is back in Philadelphia here, by the way, sixty
19:21
Speaker 2: one percent of tickets, eighty two percent of the cash
19:23
Speaker 2: on Philly, they're around minus one point thirty. I think
19:26
Speaker 2: I agree generally with that idea, even though the situation
19:30
Speaker 2: is highly negative for them though, so I can't do it.
19:33
Speaker 2: But we're at twenty minutes in. I've only talked about
19:35
Speaker 2: two games that that game is a really really crazy handicap.
19:38
Speaker 2: There's a lot going on in that game, But the
19:42
Speaker 2: money is saying Philadelphia, So do with that information what
19:44
Speaker 2: you want. It seems like the professional betters might be
19:47
Speaker 2: weighing the matchup above the situation there, and I know
19:51
Speaker 2: the advanced analytics guys don't like Vazquez. They think he's
19:54
Speaker 2: gonna regress in a major way, and they might be
19:56
Speaker 2: right about that. Garrett, what's up? You're ready for the
20:00
Speaker 2: hockey tonight? Pete, what's up? Oh? You got some kinkeke
20:06
Speaker 2: You found the baby? All right? That should bring us
20:10
Speaker 2: all a good luck with these bets. I'm gonna talk
20:13
Speaker 2: about that hockey game at the end of the show.
20:17
Speaker 2: I don't know it's I think it's difficult to handicap it.
20:22
Speaker 2: Baltimore at Boston is the next game here. These teams
20:25
Speaker 2: were both off yesterday as well, so again we have
20:28
Speaker 2: rested bullpens here, possibly cooled off hitting. The Red Sox
20:32
Speaker 2: hitting has actually started improving recently. Go figure. They just
20:37
Speaker 2: beat Cleveland in a series. There you go. The Red
20:40
Speaker 2: Sox are returning home from Cleveland. But it was only
20:42
Speaker 2: a single series road trip, so it's not the worst
20:45
Speaker 2: like road trip return spot there, so I don't think
20:47
Speaker 2: it's really that negative for the Red Sox. Baltimore is
20:51
Speaker 2: starting a road trip with a little bit of momentum
20:53
Speaker 2: off of beating Toronto. I think both teams are gonna
20:56
Speaker 2: show up generally motivated here. The Red Sox have better
21:00
Speaker 2: bullpen I don't know why I'm looking at the rest
21:01
Speaker 2: because I just said neither team played yesterday. Red Sox
21:04
Speaker 2: are rayed fourth and bullpen whip. They have one of
21:07
Speaker 2: the better bullpen rays in the league as well. They're
21:10
Speaker 2: a good bullpen. Baltimore's is not as good at twentieth,
21:14
Speaker 2: so the Red Sox have a decent bullpen advantage here. Offensively,
21:18
Speaker 2: the Orioles are the better team. They are eleventh right now.
21:23
Speaker 2: Red Sox have moved up a little bit. They're twentieth
21:26
Speaker 2: right now, tied in twentieth. The Red Sox do appear
21:29
Speaker 2: to have a starting pitching edge if you just look
21:31
Speaker 2: at it on the surface. Shane boz is pitching for
21:34
Speaker 2: the Orioles. He's not doing great. Four point four to
21:37
Speaker 2: eighty RRA, one point four to three WHIP. He's been
21:40
Speaker 2: basically the same home and away. It doesn't really matter.
21:43
Speaker 2: He did pitch well in his last few outings, though,
21:45
Speaker 2: like he's allowed three or four earned runs over his
21:48
Speaker 2: last three outings. I think you could argue he just
21:50
Speaker 2: got really pumped up to face his former team though,
21:54
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, because a lot of times when these pitchers
21:57
Speaker 2: are let go by a team, they go out in
21:59
Speaker 2: the perform really well that first time or maybe in
22:02
Speaker 2: this case, the first two times they go up against
22:05
Speaker 2: that team, because they just want to prove themselves against them.
22:08
Speaker 2: So Boz did do well in those outings, but his
22:10
Speaker 2: walk number is still very, very high. Even though he's
22:14
Speaker 2: allowed three or four earned runs in the last three outings,
22:16
Speaker 2: twenty five hits allowed in thirty in the third innings
22:19
Speaker 2: over the month of May. That's all pretty good, but
22:21
Speaker 2: sixteen walks is really bad. Twenty eight strikeouts is good,
22:26
Speaker 2: good enough, but that number of walks is crazy, dude.
22:29
Speaker 2: And over the course of the season. Yeah, he has
22:31
Speaker 2: a really high walk rate, which is his major problem.
22:34
Speaker 2: His hit rate is a little bit highest, strikeout rate
22:36
Speaker 2: is not as high as maybe you would want with
22:39
Speaker 2: a guy like him, but his walks are really the
22:42
Speaker 2: main issue here. However, he does do well against the
22:45
Speaker 2: Red Sox. He has fifty four at bats against them,
22:48
Speaker 2: twelve strikeouts, four walks, one sixty seven batting average allowed
22:52
Speaker 2: four to twenty eight ops. Boz might actually do well here.
22:57
Speaker 2: He's going up against Connolly early though, who is having
22:59
Speaker 2: a good and early in his career with the Red Sox.
23:03
Speaker 2: Two point nine to five Ray one point one six
23:06
Speaker 2: whip pretty good. He's been a little bit worse at
23:09
Speaker 2: home three point twenty nine ERA, but obviously that's not bad.
23:13
Speaker 2: He's coming off a nice outing against the Braves or
23:16
Speaker 2: he shut them out in Fenway for seven innings, four
23:19
Speaker 2: hits allowed in that one, didn't allow any runs. Like
23:24
Speaker 2: I said, seven strikeouts, three walks a little bit concerning,
23:27
Speaker 2: but he'd only walked two guys over the last three
23:29
Speaker 2: starts combined, so his walk issue seems to have gotten
23:33
Speaker 2: a bit under control. He was walking a lot of
23:35
Speaker 2: guys earlier this season. Is walk right on the season
23:39
Speaker 2: is still too high, but that does seem to be improving.
23:42
Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is decent for a guy like him,
23:44
Speaker 2: and then his hit rate is really low. So generally, yes,
23:47
Speaker 2: I think he's a good pitcher, and if he can
23:48
Speaker 2: pitch well multiple times. Really he pitched against Atlanta twice
23:52
Speaker 2: over the last three games, and he pitched well against
23:55
Speaker 2: Tampa and Houston before that did okay against the Yankees
23:58
Speaker 2: as well this season. He could ok against some of
24:01
Speaker 2: those good lineups like that. Actually Houston didn't go well,
24:04
Speaker 2: but all the rest of those starts were good. If
24:07
Speaker 2: he could do that then, yeah, I mean, that's a
24:09
Speaker 2: good sign that he's pitching well against some of the
24:10
Speaker 2: top offenses in baseball. He's a lot more than three
24:13
Speaker 2: earned runs only once the season against Houston, and of
24:17
Speaker 2: course he's gonna be facing a Baltimore team that doesn't
24:21
Speaker 2: have a lot of experience against him. They did see him,
24:23
Speaker 2: I think probably last year, or was it this year. No,
24:26
Speaker 2: it was this year. He pitched at Baltimore and actually
24:29
Speaker 2: did fine in that game too. He went six to
24:31
Speaker 2: two thirds innings, two earned runs on four hits, four strikeouts,
24:34
Speaker 2: one walk, so he did well in that one. Those
24:37
Speaker 2: numbers of what we see here, basically Baltimore's hitters have
24:40
Speaker 2: twenty one at bats against them, four strikeouts, one walk,
24:43
Speaker 2: one ninety average but somewhat high seven O three OPS
24:48
Speaker 2: given that the rest of those numbers are really good.
24:51
Speaker 2: The OPS is a little bit high because Basalo and
24:54
Speaker 2: Henderson each have a home run off him, but maybe
24:56
Speaker 2: that's a little bit fluky. So I I really think
25:00
Speaker 2: Early will do well here. But Boz has good matchup
25:03
Speaker 2: numbers as well. So it's like, well, what do we do.
25:06
Speaker 2: I'm gonna zoom in a little bit here, what do
25:08
Speaker 2: we do with this game. The money's coming in a
25:10
Speaker 2: little bit on the Red Sox. They're around minus one
25:12
Speaker 2: thirty something on the money line here. They do have
25:15
Speaker 2: a bullpen advantage, so i'll give you that. So if
25:17
Speaker 2: you think, you know the Red Socks might have a
25:19
Speaker 2: slight starting pitching edge, hear plus the bullpen edge, maybe
25:23
Speaker 2: I would slightly lean that way, but I don't think
25:25
Speaker 2: there's a big edge in this game as far as
25:27
Speaker 2: the side. Seventy three percent of tickets seventy nine percent
25:29
Speaker 2: of the cash on the Red Sox, and of course
25:31
Speaker 2: you have to think that they have enough of an
25:34
Speaker 2: edge that outweighs the price that you're paying, to which
25:37
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that that's the case. Obviously, I don't
25:39
Speaker 2: have a play on this game. The totals at eight
25:42
Speaker 2: and a half based on the fact that both starting
25:44
Speaker 2: pitchers look like they have good matchup numbers. Here, though
25:48
Speaker 2: you could make an argument for an under and I
25:50
Speaker 2: would maybe even possibly full game, but I don't know.
25:53
Speaker 2: I don't like Baltimore's bullpen enough though, so under first
25:57
Speaker 2: five innings makes sense here as well. Maybe the Red
26:00
Speaker 2: Socks will fall back into their poor offensive ways at
26:03
Speaker 2: home because They've been really bad offensively at home this season,
26:07
Speaker 2: except in their last home stand. They did actually hit
26:09
Speaker 2: well though at home. So all that to keep in mind.
26:14
Speaker 2: What's up man, edb D. I hope you don't have
26:17
Speaker 2: an irrectile dysfunction. No, I don't have a play on
26:22
Speaker 2: the first game either the I had. I really have
26:26
Speaker 2: no read on that first game. So yeah, the first game,
26:29
Speaker 2: I had nothing, really, very very slight lean maybe towards
26:33
Speaker 2: a first five under in that one. But I got
26:35
Speaker 2: nothing on that game. It's very difficult. I don't like it.
26:38
Speaker 2: And yet the San Diego Philadelphia one is just a
26:41
Speaker 2: it's a real conflict of the things that I use
26:44
Speaker 2: for handicapping. So I do have three baseball players, by
26:47
Speaker 2: the way, I forgot to mention that they're all in
26:50
Speaker 2: the later half of the board. I would say them,
26:53
Speaker 2: and I was considering a couple other games, so I
26:55
Speaker 2: will point those out. I'm gonna point out, you know,
26:57
Speaker 2: the other games. I'll point out where I saw some
26:59
Speaker 2: of the like money reads coming in as well. All right,
27:04
Speaker 2: Miami at Washington, Washington, these teams played yesterday. Miami won
27:09
Speaker 2: the game yesterday, excuse me, seven to three. Miami does
27:13
Speaker 2: have the better bullpen, and I believe they're more rested
27:15
Speaker 2: after yesterday too. Miami, yeah, used two relief pitchers yesterday,
27:20
Speaker 2: Washington used three. Miami's is a significantly better bullpen, though
27:23
Speaker 2: they're ranked sixth right now. Washington is twenty fourth offensively,
27:29
Speaker 2: Washington is better. They're fourth, And they tend to be
27:31
Speaker 2: really good at home. And we saw yet another high
27:34
Speaker 2: scoring game in Washington yesterday, and they play a lot
27:37
Speaker 2: of high scoring home games. Dude, they hit well at
27:40
Speaker 2: home and they're pitching it's bad at home, and just
27:43
Speaker 2: generally that is the type of team they are. Miami
27:45
Speaker 2: is twentieth in offense, by the way, tied with the
27:48
Speaker 2: Red Sox, so Washington has an offensive edge here. Miami
27:52
Speaker 2: is going with Lake Bashar. Is that you pronounced this
27:56
Speaker 2: guy's name? It sounds like a geographic form alke by
28:00
Speaker 2: Kl What is he in Russia? I have no idea
28:04
Speaker 2: Lake Bashar. He's a relief pitcher. He's got some solid
28:08
Speaker 2: hair hair game going on here at least, but I
28:10
Speaker 2: think he's only gonna go about one inning here. Man. Yeah,
28:13
Speaker 2: he's got good numbers on the season. Whatever. He's a
28:16
Speaker 2: relief pitcher though, so he's gonna probably open for Miami,
28:20
Speaker 2: and the reason for that is Uri Perez is supposed
28:23
Speaker 2: to be pitching today, but he's injured, so we have
28:25
Speaker 2: all these guys going on the injured list and whatever.
28:27
Speaker 2: So Miami looks like they're going with a bullpen game
28:30
Speaker 2: here in what would have been Uri Perez's turn in
28:33
Speaker 2: the rotations. That is definitely a downgrade for Miami, even
28:36
Speaker 2: though their bullpen's good, they gotta go with a bullpen
28:39
Speaker 2: game here. So I don't know. I honestly have no
28:41
Speaker 2: idea what we're gonna get out of Miami here. Bashar
28:45
Speaker 2: kind of got wrecked by the Mets in his last
28:47
Speaker 2: out and he went two innings in that one. That's
28:49
Speaker 2: not a good sign because the Mets are not a
28:51
Speaker 2: good team. Well at least they haven't been hitting well,
28:55
Speaker 2: I should say. I do think they're better than the
28:56
Speaker 2: record looks though. So Yeah, he's allowed runs in four
29:01
Speaker 2: of his last five appearances. That's not good because they're
29:04
Speaker 2: all short appearances, so I don't really trust him here.
29:08
Speaker 2: His numbers against Washington. He's not gonna be in the
29:10
Speaker 2: game very long though, so it doesn't make sense to
29:12
Speaker 2: really overhandicap this but he's got a high ops allowed
29:16
Speaker 2: to Washington, not really a high batting average, but it's
29:19
Speaker 2: a very small sample size. He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas,
29:23
Speaker 2: who I guess Washington doesn't have any better option than
29:27
Speaker 2: this guy. I mean, he's not a good pitcher. Five
29:29
Speaker 2: point seven two ERA, one point three to nine WHIP.
29:32
Speaker 2: His numbers have actually gotten a little bit better over
29:35
Speaker 2: the last month, but he's been bad at home seven
29:37
Speaker 2: point six six homeyra really bad. Last outing at Cleveland,
29:41
Speaker 2: he only lasted three and two thirds innings. Things aren't
29:45
Speaker 2: going well Man. Even though his walk rate has gone
29:48
Speaker 2: way down this month, He's only walked three guys in
29:50
Speaker 2: twenty three innings over the past month. Twenty hits a lot.
29:54
Speaker 2: I keep forgetting it's June. Twenty hits. Allowed only thirteen
29:57
Speaker 2: strikeouts though, so he's not a strikeout pitcher. But yeah,
30:00
Speaker 2: he's been a little bit better this month. Like I said,
30:02
Speaker 2: he's allowed four or fewer earned runs and all those outings,
30:05
Speaker 2: but some of them have been pretty short outings. Over
30:08
Speaker 2: the course of the season, his hit rate is still
30:11
Speaker 2: too high. He's allowed too many home runs. His walk
30:13
Speaker 2: rates not that bad, and his strikeout rate is really low.
30:17
Speaker 2: I mean, he's just kind of an older junk pitcher man.
30:19
Speaker 2: He's just not very good. He's definitely not good at home.
30:22
Speaker 2: Miami does not have great offensive numbers against him though,
30:26
Speaker 2: thirty three at bats, ten strikeouts, two walks to forty
30:28
Speaker 2: two batting average allowed, uh seven ops. So when I
30:34
Speaker 2: first looked at this, I was thinking, oh God, he
30:36
Speaker 2: got a bullpen game from Miami. Micholas is pitching for Washington,
30:40
Speaker 2: plus they're bad bullpen. Washington plays all these high scoring
30:43
Speaker 2: games at home. It looks like an over game to me.
30:46
Speaker 2: But diving into him, I'm like, well, you know, Miami's
30:48
Speaker 2: bullpen could actually maybe stifle Washington's offense to some degree here.
30:54
Speaker 2: Micholas actually doesn't have horrible matchup numbers here. So I'm
30:58
Speaker 2: not gonna do anything with this game. I'll'll lean over though,
31:01
Speaker 2: just based on the way this thing sets up, and
31:03
Speaker 2: the odds makers have thrown a total of nine out there,
31:06
Speaker 2: kind of indicating they think this is gonna be a
31:07
Speaker 2: higher scoring game. There are definitely reasons over does still
31:11
Speaker 2: make sense. And again Washington, again, they play a lot
31:15
Speaker 2: of high scoring games at home, and Micholas is also
31:18
Speaker 2: really bad at home, So more things indicate for an
31:21
Speaker 2: over to me than anything else in this game, so
31:23
Speaker 2: I'd still lean that way. Washington is a small favorite
31:28
Speaker 2: in this game as well, which I don't have a
31:30
Speaker 2: good read on the side at all. But yeah, I mean,
31:33
Speaker 2: I don't really. I still don't trust Micholas though, so
31:37
Speaker 2: I don't know. The game just looks like an over
31:39
Speaker 2: game to me. Though maybe that it's just intuition. I
31:43
Speaker 2: don't know. I know sometimes when I said that, I
31:45
Speaker 2: said that the other day about whatever that San Diego
31:48
Speaker 2: game was, and that was not correct. I think it
31:52
Speaker 2: was San Diego Washington actually, all right, Cleveland and the Yankees.
31:56
Speaker 2: These teams both did not play yesterday. Yankees, we're in
32:00
Speaker 2: a bit of a negative situation here there, returning home
32:02
Speaker 2: from a road trip where they went to Kansas City
32:05
Speaker 2: and then Sacramento. So they're returning home from that. It
32:08
Speaker 2: was a successful road trip. They won five out of
32:10
Speaker 2: six on the road trip. They're coming home across the
32:13
Speaker 2: country though, so I talk about it even though they
32:15
Speaker 2: had a day off whatever, I think the day off
32:18
Speaker 2: is debatably even worse because it's it gets you settled
32:22
Speaker 2: back in at home, I think it becomes more of
32:24
Speaker 2: a distraction in some ways, so you have to readjust
32:26
Speaker 2: to the time zone, it could be a distraction. You
32:28
Speaker 2: have to get back to home life. Whatever. Maybe the
32:32
Speaker 2: Yankees won't totally overlook Cleveland because I think they're in
32:35
Speaker 2: first place in the AL Central still, but the AL
32:38
Speaker 2: Central is a bad division, dude. This is still a
32:40
Speaker 2: negative spot for the Yankees, I would say on the
32:43
Speaker 2: return home situation. But you look at the starting pitching
32:46
Speaker 2: matchup here, It's like, yeah, there's no way you can
32:47
Speaker 2: really fade the Yankees here, even though yeah, they're gonna
32:50
Speaker 2: be overpriced in the market. So I guess maybe that's
32:52
Speaker 2: the one that plus the situation, I guess maybe is
32:56
Speaker 2: the reason, you know, for doing it if you really
33:00
Speaker 2: want to. But you know, I there's no way I'm
33:03
Speaker 2: gonna face Schlitler though. I'm just not gonna do it.
33:06
Speaker 2: Unless there's some crazy, crazy setup for the game where
33:10
Speaker 2: like he has horrible matchup numbers or something, plus it's
33:13
Speaker 2: a horrible spot, then maybe I'd do it, but yeah,
33:16
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do it in this game. Bullpen wise,
33:19
Speaker 2: the Yankees bullpen's been decent. They're fourteenth right now, Cleveland fifteenth,
33:24
Speaker 2: a little bit worse there. Ei Ray is a bit worse.
33:27
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the Yankees have a slight bullpen
33:29
Speaker 2: advantage here. Yankees obviously have a huge hitting advantage here.
33:32
Speaker 2: They're number two in offense. Cleveland is twenty fourth. Yankee
33:37
Speaker 2: Stadium tends to be a higher scoring stadium, and the
33:40
Speaker 2: Yankees have been a very high scoring home team. I
33:42
Speaker 2: think there's still the highest scoring home team. Gerald, what's up.
33:47
Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to turn around. Yesterday was a no
33:49
Speaker 2: play for me because Burns did not pitch, so that
33:52
Speaker 2: was a you know, as long as you did the
33:55
Speaker 2: default thing, which specifies that the starters must start in
33:58
Speaker 2: that game. I don't know why Burns is not there.
34:01
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on. He must be injured
34:03
Speaker 2: or something. Because he did not pitch in that game.
34:07
Speaker 2: They scratched him in the middle of the day. I
34:09
Speaker 2: commented on my video here and on the and on Instagram.
34:13
Speaker 2: After I posted all the stuff, I commented on it saying,
34:16
Speaker 2: you know, Burns isn't playing, so obviously I don't recommend
34:20
Speaker 2: this play anymore. And instead my lean on that game
34:23
Speaker 2: changed it to being an over, which was correct by
34:27
Speaker 2: the way the over one, although I don't think it
34:30
Speaker 2: would have made my cut though the over it seemed
34:32
Speaker 2: pretty good for an over though with two bullpen games
34:36
Speaker 2: he was sick. Burns, you gotta come back, man Burns,
34:41
Speaker 2: Baby Burns, mister Burns. All right, Well, I guess we'll
34:45
Speaker 2: expect Burns. You know, he'll make a start at some point,
34:49
Speaker 2: but he'll be off schedule, so I might not want
34:51
Speaker 2: to actually give out a play on him whenever that happens.
34:54
Speaker 2: He's not scheduled to pitch today, so that's the next
34:58
Speaker 2: game we're gonna talk about, by the way. But Cleveland
35:00
Speaker 2: and the Yankees here. Joey Cantillo is pitching for Cleveland.
35:05
Speaker 2: He's got a decent looking three point five seven e RA,
35:08
Speaker 2: but his whip is pretty bad one point four, so
35:10
Speaker 2: he's not as good, not as good as his era looks.
35:13
Speaker 2: He's been pretty good on the road though, three point
35:15
Speaker 2: oh seven ROADYRA. But you look at his recent outings,
35:19
Speaker 2: he's not really going deep into these outings. Cleveland had
35:22
Speaker 2: won five games in a row of his but he's
35:24
Speaker 2: not going deep. He's had a bunch of walks. He's
35:27
Speaker 2: had three plus walks in all but one outing in
35:30
Speaker 2: the month of May. That's not good. And he only
35:33
Speaker 2: lasted two winnings last time out against Washington. This is bad, dude.
35:38
Speaker 2: Eighteen to eighteen strikeout walk ratio over the month of May,
35:41
Speaker 2: that is horrendous. In twenty seven to two thirds innings,
35:44
Speaker 2: pitch twenty three hits a lot is fine. The eighteen
35:46
Speaker 2: walks is just outrageously high. You can't do that, dude.
35:50
Speaker 2: And of course, his walk rate on the season is
35:52
Speaker 2: way too high. His strikeout rate is fine, it's a
35:55
Speaker 2: little bit low. And his hit rate is also low,
35:58
Speaker 2: which is good, but this guy is walking a ton
36:01
Speaker 2: of batters. You can't do that, especially on the road
36:04
Speaker 2: against the Yankees, one of the best lineups and the
36:06
Speaker 2: best home lineup in baseball. You if you start walking guys,
36:10
Speaker 2: you're gonna pay in a situation like this. So I
36:13
Speaker 2: don't like that. His numbers against the Yankees are actually
36:17
Speaker 2: not horrible. Only fourteen at bats against him two fourteen
36:21
Speaker 2: average is really good. But an eight twelve ops is
36:24
Speaker 2: kind of high, but a lot of it is because
36:26
Speaker 2: Judge has a home run against him. It's a very
36:29
Speaker 2: small sample size here, five strangouts, two walks. I still
36:33
Speaker 2: don't really trust Katio though. I can't trust the guy
36:35
Speaker 2: that has that type of walk rate, and he's gonna
36:38
Speaker 2: have to go up against Cam Schlittler, who is probably
36:41
Speaker 2: gonna win the cy young of in the American League
36:43
Speaker 2: unless something ridiculous happens. He's got a one point five
36:47
Speaker 2: RA point eight five whip and while those numbers are
36:50
Speaker 2: pretty unsustainable, I would say he's still one of the
36:53
Speaker 2: best pitchers in baseball. He's a little bit less good
36:56
Speaker 2: at home, two point three eighty RA still really good,
37:00
Speaker 2: but he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in every
37:02
Speaker 2: out and going all the way back into mid April,
37:05
Speaker 2: hasn't allowed more than three in any outing this season.
37:09
Speaker 2: Has a high strikeout rate, a low walk rate, a
37:11
Speaker 2: very low hit rate. Yeah, we get it. He's a
37:14
Speaker 2: top tier pitcher in baseball already. He's going up against
37:18
Speaker 2: Cleveland here is not a very good offense. They basically
37:21
Speaker 2: haven't seen him before. Only Patrick Bailey has ever faced him.
37:24
Speaker 2: He's zero for two against him, no walks, no strikeouts.
37:28
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Schlitzler obviously has an edge here.
37:30
Speaker 2: Yankees are at a situational disadvantage, but they have the
37:34
Speaker 2: matchup edge in all three phases of this game, in
37:37
Speaker 2: my opinion, although the bullpen edge is a little bit
37:39
Speaker 2: slighter than the other two. Of course, the money is
37:42
Speaker 2: all pouring in on the Yankees too, so another reason
37:45
Speaker 2: why I don't want to fade the Yankees here. They
37:48
Speaker 2: got a minus two forty price on them here, though.
37:51
Speaker 2: You know the Yankees with Schlitzler though, you pretty much
37:54
Speaker 2: know you're paying too much of a price here though,
37:56
Speaker 2: So I think the Yankees are still overpriced here. Eighty
37:59
Speaker 2: nine of the cash on them though, fifty four percent
38:02
Speaker 2: of the tickets on Cleveland. That makes no sense to me.
38:04
Speaker 2: There's no way the public is playing Cleveland here. You
38:07
Speaker 2: think the public is face even though Cleveland has a
38:09
Speaker 2: good record. Do you really think they're fading the Yankees
38:12
Speaker 2: with Schlitler pitching? Probably not. The totals also really quite low.
38:17
Speaker 2: It's seven and a half juice to the under. I
38:20
Speaker 2: don't think i'd want to try to touch the total either,
38:22
Speaker 2: because Cantillo, you know, he's a bit of a mystery,
38:27
Speaker 2: but I don't trust him. Perhaps the approach here is
38:31
Speaker 2: to actually go Cleveland under their team total in this game.
38:35
Speaker 2: That might be the way to go. If you think
38:36
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a lower scoring game, Schlitler, I think
38:39
Speaker 2: it's likely to come in and dominate them. In my opinion,
38:43
Speaker 2: the hitting could be slowed down a bit by the
38:46
Speaker 2: situation and whatever. Cleveland, by the way, is starting a
38:48
Speaker 2: road trip. I forgot to mention that coming off of
38:50
Speaker 2: losing to the Red Sox at home, so Cleveland starting
38:54
Speaker 2: a road trip is usually a positive focus spot. But
38:58
Speaker 2: even so, I still think that Cleveland under their team
39:02
Speaker 2: total probably makes the most sense. I mean, their office
39:04
Speaker 2: just isn't that good. Even if they are focused. I
39:07
Speaker 2: don't see them doing a lot of damage at all
39:09
Speaker 2: against Schlitler. And then you gotta rest at Yankees bullpen
39:12
Speaker 2: as well coming into the equation, which isn't really that bad.
39:15
Speaker 2: So something like that might be the way to approach
39:18
Speaker 2: that game. But I'm not gonna play the game Kansas
39:21
Speaker 2: City at Cincinnati Cincinnati. Of course, you know I gave
39:26
Speaker 2: out the play on Cincinnati yesterday. I wound up being
39:28
Speaker 2: a no play because we needed Burns to start the game.
39:31
Speaker 2: Specifying starting pitchers must start, which, by the way, if
39:34
Speaker 2: I don't mention specifying action, the default behaviors you're specifying
39:40
Speaker 2: listed starters must start, because usually that's a huge part
39:43
Speaker 2: of the handicap. So listed starters must start is usually
39:47
Speaker 2: what you want. But there are certain situations where action
39:49
Speaker 2: makes sense, where like if you're fading a team that's
39:51
Speaker 2: going with a bullpen game and they might change who's
39:54
Speaker 2: actually gonna be, like the opener or whatever, that would
39:56
Speaker 2: be the situation where you do that. But of course
39:59
Speaker 2: Cincinnati did not win that game because they went with
40:01
Speaker 2: a bullpen game and the reliever they had starting the
40:04
Speaker 2: game gave up a grand slam in the first inning.
40:08
Speaker 2: So I would have leaned over in that game given
40:11
Speaker 2: that it was two bullpen games, which, like I said,
40:14
Speaker 2: I mentioned that in the comments. The game did go over,
40:16
Speaker 2: although after that grand slam in the top of the
40:18
Speaker 2: first the game was lower scoring than that for a while.
40:22
Speaker 2: In fact, Kansas City's pitching actually did a lot better
40:25
Speaker 2: than you would think in that game. So maybe it's
40:27
Speaker 2: a good thing we did not play Cincinnati there, or
40:32
Speaker 2: a good thing that we you know, had to wound
40:34
Speaker 2: up with a no play on that. Now Cincinnati is
40:37
Speaker 2: at home coming off an ugly loss, so maybe they
40:39
Speaker 2: will bounce back from that. I mean, Kansas City is
40:42
Speaker 2: not a good team, dude, and the National League has
40:45
Speaker 2: generally had a huge advantage over the American League in
40:48
Speaker 2: interleague play. This year, National League is a better league
40:52
Speaker 2: by far this year. I'm saying, you know, I'm not
40:55
Speaker 2: saying these just blindly play National League teams in interleague games.
40:59
Speaker 2: And in fact, I'm going against that in one of
41:01
Speaker 2: my plays today, actually two of them. Oh shit, I'm
41:04
Speaker 2: going with American League teams with two of my plays today.
41:07
Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's not good. But you know, you
41:11
Speaker 2: have to weigh the individual circumstances. But generally National League
41:15
Speaker 2: has had the upper hand. Cincinnati does not have a
41:18
Speaker 2: good bullpen, and they used a lot of their well,
41:20
Speaker 2: they used three relief pitches yesterday, but for a lot
41:22
Speaker 2: of pitches. Richardson was the guy that uses the opener yesterday.
41:26
Speaker 2: Lion Richardson, not not Simeon Woods. Richardson, who is I
41:32
Speaker 2: think still on Minnesota, but now coming out of their
41:34
Speaker 2: bullpen anyway, I'm rambling. Cincinnati's bullpen is bad. I don't
41:38
Speaker 2: think they set up very well here. Kansas City's bullpen
41:41
Speaker 2: is also bad, and they used four guys out of
41:44
Speaker 2: it yesterday. So whatever you want to do with this game,
41:46
Speaker 2: I would either bank on the bullpen's being bad or
41:50
Speaker 2: just avoid the bullpens. Cincinnati is a twenty eighth rank
41:54
Speaker 2: bullpen here, Kansas City is dead last, although it's still
41:58
Speaker 2: the case that the Angels the Astros both the worst
42:01
Speaker 2: bullpenny rays. Though Cincinnati's offense has been a bit better recently.
42:06
Speaker 2: Like I said, the ranked thirteenth, Kansas City twenty fifth,
42:09
Speaker 2: their offense has definitely been struggling. Even though they got
42:12
Speaker 2: some runs on the board yesterday. It was a decent
42:14
Speaker 2: situation for them to do it, though, And it's a
42:16
Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark here. Noah Cameron is pitching for the Royals.
42:21
Speaker 2: He's a guy who I liked quite a bit last year.
42:23
Speaker 2: He had a good early part to his career. He
42:26
Speaker 2: struggled this season though. Four point six to one e Ray,
42:29
Speaker 2: one point four to one Whip. He's been worse on
42:32
Speaker 2: the road. That's not a good sign for pitching in
42:34
Speaker 2: a hitter friendly road ballpark here. Five point five to
42:37
Speaker 2: seven Roady Ray. That's not great, but he's been pitching
42:40
Speaker 2: better recently. Over the month of May, he allowed three
42:44
Speaker 2: or four earned runs in every outing. Kansas City lost
42:47
Speaker 2: every one of those. Games, but it wasn't really his fault.
42:50
Speaker 2: They weren't putting up any runs in those games. He
42:52
Speaker 2: only allowed seventeen hits in twenty one and he's had
42:55
Speaker 2: six walks twenty strikeouts, So he seems like he's coming
42:58
Speaker 2: back into form. Dude. He is better recently. He's gone
43:02
Speaker 2: five plus innings in his last three games. Pitched okay
43:05
Speaker 2: against the Yankees last time out. That's a decent sign.
43:08
Speaker 2: So I think Cameron is finally kind of coming back
43:10
Speaker 2: into form here. It looks like his numbers over the
43:13
Speaker 2: course of the season too many hits for sure, the
43:16
Speaker 2: walk rate is okay, and the strike up rate is
43:18
Speaker 2: basically what you expect out of him. He's not a
43:20
Speaker 2: huge strike up pitcher. In against the Reds though, in
43:25
Speaker 2: fourteen at bats he hasn't pitched that well four to
43:28
Speaker 2: twenty nine batting average, eight to fifty seven OPS. So
43:30
Speaker 2: I don't really know if I want to bank on
43:32
Speaker 2: Cameron here, even though I generally like him. Bad matchup numbers,
43:36
Speaker 2: not good on the road, even though he is coming
43:39
Speaker 2: back into form. Andrew Abbott is going for Cincinnati here.
43:44
Speaker 2: His era looks pretty good three point eight eight. He's
43:46
Speaker 2: had a decent career. His whip this year, though, indicates
43:50
Speaker 2: that his ERA should be worse than this one point
43:53
Speaker 2: four to two whip. That's not good. Abbot has been
43:56
Speaker 2: worse at home pretty significantly, five point two eight home era,
44:00
Speaker 2: which again makes sense it's a hit or friendly ballpark.
44:02
Speaker 2: But just like Cameron, Abbott has been pitching better over
44:05
Speaker 2: the last month as well. He allowed three or fewer
44:08
Speaker 2: runs in every outing in May, one or fewer in
44:11
Speaker 2: all but one of them, when at least five innings
44:13
Speaker 2: in all of them. However, all but one of them
44:16
Speaker 2: was on the road, where he pitches better. But his
44:18
Speaker 2: one home start was a six inning shutout against Houston,
44:21
Speaker 2: so he did still pitch well in that game at
44:25
Speaker 2: home against a pretty good offense, So Abbott seems like
44:29
Speaker 2: he is finally coming around. His last start in April
44:31
Speaker 2: was pretty good as well, so Abbot seems to be
44:34
Speaker 2: kind of returning to what we think that he is,
44:36
Speaker 2: which is a decent pitcher. His strikeout walk ratio is
44:40
Speaker 2: an issue though, eighteen to twelve in May. That's not
44:42
Speaker 2: a good ratio. It's a pretty low strike gout raped,
44:45
Speaker 2: but the walk rate is also too high, so that's
44:48
Speaker 2: a bit of a concern. Nineteen hits and twenty eight innings,
44:50
Speaker 2: though that's pretty good. He's allowed right around one hit
44:54
Speaker 2: per inning on the season, but he seems to be
44:56
Speaker 2: improving upon that. His walk rate is a problem. Like
45:00
Speaker 2: I said over the course of the season is walk
45:02
Speaker 2: rate hasn't really been been fixed, so that's the really
45:06
Speaker 2: that's the worst number that he has there. And then
45:07
Speaker 2: a strike up rate is not really that high either,
45:10
Speaker 2: but he's not really a huge strikeout pitcher. His numbers
45:13
Speaker 2: against Kansas City are not really good and twenty three
45:15
Speaker 2: at bats three or four batting average allowed seven to
45:18
Speaker 2: seventy six ops four to three strikeout walk ratio. None
45:22
Speaker 2: of that looks good. What I will say is this
45:25
Speaker 2: game looks like it has a very strong market read
45:28
Speaker 2: on Kansas City. Here the money looks like it's all
45:31
Speaker 2: coming in that way, and you can see that reflected
45:32
Speaker 2: here too. Fifty eight percent of the tickets are on Cincinnati,
45:36
Speaker 2: which kind of makes sense. They have the better record,
45:38
Speaker 2: they have the picture with the better era, but seventy
45:41
Speaker 2: two percent of the money on Kansas City. I could
45:44
Speaker 2: kind of see the argument for it. Cincinnati is a
45:46
Speaker 2: small favorite around minus one twenty something here. I could
45:50
Speaker 2: kind of see the argument for it. I mean, the
45:52
Speaker 2: argument is probably basically just that, well, you're getting an
45:55
Speaker 2: underdogur price with Kansas City here. They did just end
45:58
Speaker 2: a losing streak yesterday, so that gives them momentum, So
46:02
Speaker 2: that might be part of the argument, Like they ended
46:04
Speaker 2: a six game losing streak, and a lot of times
46:06
Speaker 2: when a team ends a losing streak, they will play
46:09
Speaker 2: better in the next game because they'll have that new momentum.
46:11
Speaker 2: And in fact, Kansas City actually did just do that.
46:14
Speaker 2: They just ended like a four game losing streak not
46:16
Speaker 2: that long ago, and they won the next game after
46:18
Speaker 2: they did that, then they went on another losing streak,
46:22
Speaker 2: so there are some arguments for it. Maybe the other
46:24
Speaker 2: argument is just this is a close pitching matchup, so
46:27
Speaker 2: grab the underdog. I think I would actually still prefer
46:30
Speaker 2: going over in this game to anything else, So I
46:32
Speaker 2: don't like it as much as I would have yesterday
46:34
Speaker 2: with two bullpend games, but the totals at nine, the
46:37
Speaker 2: oddsmaker's kind of telling you they think there are gonna
46:40
Speaker 2: be some runs here. You got two bad bullpens. If
46:45
Speaker 2: either pitcher kind of falters in this game, you might
46:47
Speaker 2: be able to get this thing over the total, which
46:50
Speaker 2: is definitely possible. Even though both pitchers, like I said,
46:52
Speaker 2: they're both pitching better right now. They're both better generally
46:56
Speaker 2: than what they're season has looked like so far. So
46:59
Speaker 2: that's kind of my concerned with it, but probably slightly
47:01
Speaker 2: for me to be over in that game. The next
47:04
Speaker 2: game up will be a play for me, which is
47:07
Speaker 2: Toronto and Atlanta, and you probably already know what it
47:09
Speaker 2: is based off of my interleague talk. We are going
47:18
Speaker 2: to take Toronto money line first five innings here. You
47:21
Speaker 2: can get them a little bit of an underdog price
47:23
Speaker 2: here against Atlanta. Yes, we're fading the braves here. Now.
47:28
Speaker 2: There are a few good things about this. Obviously, I
47:30
Speaker 2: like the starting pitching matchup here for Toronto, and that's
47:32
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna focus on here, But there are other
47:35
Speaker 2: things I like about this too. Atlanta's in a negative spot.
47:38
Speaker 2: They were returning on from the road. They went to
47:40
Speaker 2: Boston and Cincinnati. Maybe not the worst road trip or
47:43
Speaker 2: turn spot, but still they better way for a week.
47:45
Speaker 2: More than a week. When you return home, a lot
47:47
Speaker 2: of times you gotta get back to family life. You
47:50
Speaker 2: get distracted. Both these teams were off yesterday as well,
47:54
Speaker 2: so that can kind of add to that a little bit.
47:56
Speaker 2: In my opinion, it can slow down the offenses a
47:59
Speaker 2: little bit as well, So I think that all kind
48:03
Speaker 2: of affects Atlanta. And Atlanta, by the way, they've not
48:05
Speaker 2: hit well at home this year. Really, I know they're
48:07
Speaker 2: one of the best offenses in baseball, but their offense
48:10
Speaker 2: is one of the few that's actually better on the
48:12
Speaker 2: road than at home. So that is something to consider
48:15
Speaker 2: Atlanta's offense. We had some unders on this show and
48:19
Speaker 2: they're a Red Sox series in Atlanta a couple of
48:22
Speaker 2: weeks ago, and we won both of those unders. So Atlanta,
48:25
Speaker 2: they do tend to play some lower scoring games at home.
48:27
Speaker 2: Their offense tends to struggle attle bit more at home,
48:31
Speaker 2: so I think that's good for this as well. Atlanta
48:33
Speaker 2: has the best bullpen in baseball, so that's not gonna
48:36
Speaker 2: factor into this handicap other than the fact that I
48:39
Speaker 2: think that's a disadvantage for Toronto, right So that's why
48:42
Speaker 2: I'm going first five here. I don't want to fade
48:44
Speaker 2: Atlanta's bullpen. They actually have the best bullpen era in
48:47
Speaker 2: baseball right now, and best whip so number one bullpen.
48:51
Speaker 2: Toronto's bullpen is not awful. They're eleventh, so I'm gonna
48:54
Speaker 2: take them out of the equation. Even though they're both rested,
48:58
Speaker 2: you know, it's not an vantage for Toronto, so I'm
49:01
Speaker 2: gonna take that part of the game out. Atlanta's third
49:04
Speaker 2: in offense, yes, we know, and Toronto's a bad offense
49:07
Speaker 2: right now. They're twenty fifth, So yes, Atlanta has a
49:10
Speaker 2: big offensive edge, but I think that's going to be
49:12
Speaker 2: countered by the fact that they don't hit as well
49:14
Speaker 2: in this ballpark and they're having to go up against
49:17
Speaker 2: Kevin Goussman. That's who we're gonna back in this outing here.
49:21
Speaker 2: Goussman is solid, dude. I mean, he's the Blue jays
49:23
Speaker 2: most consistent starter in my opinion. Three point one to
49:26
Speaker 2: three ERA one point zero nine whip. He's been almost
49:31
Speaker 2: as good on the road. His home road splits are
49:33
Speaker 2: a little bit in favor of home, but not too much.
49:35
Speaker 2: Three point four to five Roadie Ray is still pretty good.
49:38
Speaker 2: He's pitched well over the past month. He's only had
49:41
Speaker 2: one start where he gave up more than two hour
49:44
Speaker 2: in runs and yeah, he got shelled in that start
49:47
Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay, but there was some bad fielding in
49:50
Speaker 2: the game, couldn't get out of the inning that he
49:52
Speaker 2: was in, and Tampa Bay had just faced him, so
49:54
Speaker 2: I think Tampa Bay made adjustments and hit him better
49:57
Speaker 2: the next time. But he still had five strikeouts in
49:59
Speaker 2: no walk in that outing, so there were some indicators.
50:02
Speaker 2: He still didn't even pitch bad in that outing, and
50:04
Speaker 2: that was the only outing in May where he allowed
50:06
Speaker 2: a home run too. But other than that, he's allowed
50:08
Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in all of his May starts.
50:12
Speaker 2: His three starts after that, he allowed two combined runs.
50:15
Speaker 2: He's got at least five innings in all of those.
50:17
Speaker 2: Twenty six to four strike got walk ratio over that month.
50:20
Speaker 2: Good stuff. That shows that his command is there. But
50:24
Speaker 2: he did allow thirty two hits in twenty eight and
50:25
Speaker 2: the third innings, which is not good. But like I
50:28
Speaker 2: just said, he got really knocked around in that one
50:30
Speaker 2: start by Tampa Bay, and if you throw that out,
50:32
Speaker 2: his hit rate goes right back to normal. So Goussman
50:36
Speaker 2: is solid, dude. He's allowed only more than three on runs,
50:39
Speaker 2: He's only done that twice this season, and he's allowed
50:42
Speaker 2: more than two only three times. This season, his strike
50:46
Speaker 2: got rate is close to one per inning, his hit
50:48
Speaker 2: rate is below one per inning, and his walk rate
50:50
Speaker 2: is low. Solid numbers across the board and against the Braves,
50:54
Speaker 2: you know what's coming here. He does have good numbers
50:56
Speaker 2: against the Braves. In a big sample of a hundred
50:59
Speaker 2: excuse me, ninety one at bats, almost one hundred ninety
51:02
Speaker 2: one at bats, he's got nineteen strikeouts, two walks, one
51:05
Speaker 2: sixty five average allowed, five twelve ops, So we have
51:09
Speaker 2: a big sample here. Historically Gaussman has been good against
51:13
Speaker 2: these hitters, so that's a good sign as well for this.
51:16
Speaker 2: On the other side, we're gonna fade Bryce Elder. Elder,
51:20
Speaker 2: I know he's pitched well the season two point five YRRA,
51:23
Speaker 2: one point oh eight whip, but I don't consider him
51:25
Speaker 2: to be one of the top pitchers in the Braves rotation.
51:28
Speaker 2: He really struggled massively last year. He's been all over
51:32
Speaker 2: the place throughout his career. Like he was really good
51:34
Speaker 2: early in his career. I think an injury derailed his career,
51:38
Speaker 2: and then as he tried to come back from injury,
51:39
Speaker 2: his strikeout rate was way down. He was trying to
51:42
Speaker 2: learn how to pitch differently. And while yeah, it looked
51:45
Speaker 2: like he started pitching better again, he was pitching better
51:48
Speaker 2: this season. I know, two point five RRA, one point
51:51
Speaker 2: oh eight whip that's all good. Yes, he's got a
51:54
Speaker 2: really low hit rate this year, that's good. His walk
51:56
Speaker 2: rate's a little bit high, and his strikeout rate is low.
52:00
Speaker 2: But like I said, his velocity I think is not
52:02
Speaker 2: going to return to what it was really early in
52:04
Speaker 2: his career, even though I know he's still not even
52:06
Speaker 2: old at twenty seven, but I think the injury just
52:08
Speaker 2: kind of messed with that. So he is figuring out
52:11
Speaker 2: how to pitch otherwise. And yes, I know he's allowed
52:14
Speaker 2: three or four earned runs in every outing this season
52:16
Speaker 2: except his most recent one. But you got to be
52:19
Speaker 2: concerned by what you see here because he got knocked
52:22
Speaker 2: around by the Red Sox, who are not a very
52:24
Speaker 2: good offense and hadn't been hitting well at home, and
52:26
Speaker 2: that was one of those starts where the Red Sox
52:29
Speaker 2: put up some offense finally at home. Elder only had
52:33
Speaker 2: one strike gut in that outing too, so that's not
52:35
Speaker 2: a good sign. And he also had nine walks in
52:37
Speaker 2: twenty nine innings in May, which isn't awful, but you'd
52:40
Speaker 2: like to see that number be a little bit better
52:42
Speaker 2: than that. Twenty five strikeouts, twenty four hits. Those numbers
52:46
Speaker 2: were not that bad, but there's something here. It looks
52:48
Speaker 2: like Elders kind of falling out of form a little
52:50
Speaker 2: bit here. In my opinion, you could argue that maybe
52:54
Speaker 2: that's not the case, and then maybe that was a
52:55
Speaker 2: blip and it was an outlier, and maybe he will
52:57
Speaker 2: bounce back. You definitely could make that art argument. Elder
53:01
Speaker 2: has been better at home. We are fading that here,
53:03
Speaker 2: two point eighty r at home, but I don't like
53:07
Speaker 2: what we saw on him in his last downing against
53:08
Speaker 2: the Red Sox and against Toronto. He does not have
53:12
Speaker 2: good matchup numbers. They only have five hitter or excuse
53:15
Speaker 2: six hitters who have faced him. That's the majority of
53:17
Speaker 2: their starting line at at least thirty six at bats
53:20
Speaker 2: two seventy eight batting average, eight to ninety nine ops
53:23
Speaker 2: six to do strike out walker issue, And yes, I
53:26
Speaker 2: know a lot of the damages from Sanchez as the
53:29
Speaker 2: vast majority of those of bats. I get that, so
53:31
Speaker 2: he might be able to pitch around them. But yeah,
53:34
Speaker 2: I just think there's something about Elder it looks like
53:36
Speaker 2: you can start fading him man. So given the situation,
53:39
Speaker 2: given that Gaussman has good matchup numbers here, the money
53:43
Speaker 2: is agreeing with me on this as well. Atlanta's around
53:45
Speaker 2: minus one twenty something here for the full game. You're
53:48
Speaker 2: getting a similar price on Toronto in the first five
53:51
Speaker 2: here at a small or yeah, a small dog price here.
53:54
Speaker 2: Probably you're getting a little bit of a bigger dog
53:56
Speaker 2: price on the full game if you wanted to do that.
53:59
Speaker 2: I don't think I would disagree the Toronto full game.
54:03
Speaker 2: I just think isolating first five you get the best
54:05
Speaker 2: advantage you can get with Toronto here early in the game,
54:09
Speaker 2: when you know Atlanta might be still dealing with the
54:11
Speaker 2: home distractions while the game is beginning, and you get
54:14
Speaker 2: the starting pitching advantage here. In my opinion, seventy five
54:17
Speaker 2: percent of ticket sixty seven percent of the cash on Atlanta,
54:19
Speaker 2: so the ticket percentage is on them, less of the money.
54:23
Speaker 2: Will take Toronto as the small underdog first five and
54:26
Speaker 2: back Goussman, who I considered to be more trustworthy than Elder,
54:31
Speaker 2: who is not his elder. Gaussman is his elder. Who's
54:36
Speaker 2: your daddy basically, all right, So that is my first play.
54:41
Speaker 2: This next game up, I considered making a play. It's
54:44
Speaker 2: an interesting game White Sox in Minnesota. Minnesota actually got
54:48
Speaker 2: the win yesterday, ending a losing streak. So that's one thing,
54:51
Speaker 2: because I actually liked the White Sox in today's game,
54:54
Speaker 2: but I was considering maybe some other ways to approach it.
54:57
Speaker 2: But Minnesota ending a losing streak yesterday, with that in
55:00
Speaker 2: a five game losing streak, that might give them new
55:02
Speaker 2: momentum here, So that isn't positive for Minnesota in a way,
55:05
Speaker 2: even though the White Sox maybe in bounce back mode
55:08
Speaker 2: after losing, so there is that as well. The White
55:12
Speaker 2: Sox use three relief pitchers yesterday. Minnesota used three as well.
55:16
Speaker 2: Minnesota's bullpen is a train wreck, though they are twenty seventh.
55:20
Speaker 2: The White Sox bullpen is actually a bit more tolerable
55:23
Speaker 2: here at seventeenth, although I still don't really like either bullpen.
55:27
Speaker 2: But Minnesota is worse. White Sox offense has been shockingly good.
55:32
Speaker 2: They're number five right now in offense, tied with the
55:35
Speaker 2: other shocking team this year Pittsburgh and the Twins are
55:40
Speaker 2: fifteenth in offense here. Now. The other thing about Minnesota, though,
55:45
Speaker 2: is they just played the White Sox two series ago
55:48
Speaker 2: in Chicago, and the White Sox won three out of
55:51
Speaker 2: four in that series, So that might keep Minnesota focused
55:54
Speaker 2: here as well. Like after winning yesterday, I don't think
55:57
Speaker 2: Minnesota is gonna overlook. You know, a hot White Sox team,
56:01
Speaker 2: it's still ahead of them in the standings, and a
56:02
Speaker 2: White Sox team it just took three out of four
56:05
Speaker 2: against them, you know what I mean. So I think
56:07
Speaker 2: Minnesota will still be motivated here. As far as it's
56:11
Speaker 2: starting pitching. It is interesting. When I first looked at this,
56:13
Speaker 2: my thought was an under because I kind of like
56:16
Speaker 2: both of these starting pitchers here. Davis Martin has been
56:19
Speaker 2: another real surprise this year. He's pitching really well for
56:22
Speaker 2: the White Sox. Somehow, at the age of twenty nine,
56:25
Speaker 2: he's having a breakout season, and I while I don't
56:28
Speaker 2: think his numbers are totally sustainable, I don't think that
56:31
Speaker 2: it's a total mirage either. He's got a two VRA
56:35
Speaker 2: point nine to nine whip. He's been a little bit
56:37
Speaker 2: worse on the road, but two point six to one
56:39
Speaker 2: YRA not bad. He's allowed more than a tour in
56:44
Speaker 2: runs twice this season and once was his first start
56:47
Speaker 2: of the season. The other was a recent one at
56:50
Speaker 2: San Francisco where he got a little bit unlucky, I
56:52
Speaker 2: think based on his command numbers and whatever. His command
56:55
Speaker 2: numbers in fact were really good in the month of
56:57
Speaker 2: May thirty eight to six strike out walk race on
57:00
Speaker 2: twenty one hits a lot in thirty two thirds innings.
57:03
Speaker 2: Including his most recent start, which was against Minnesota, he
57:06
Speaker 2: allowed one on and run on two hits and six innings,
57:09
Speaker 2: five strikeouts, two walks, so he did really well in
57:11
Speaker 2: that outing. Now the question is does Minnesota now make
57:15
Speaker 2: adjustments and hit him better this time? They might, But
57:19
Speaker 2: even if they do, that still might not be good
57:21
Speaker 2: enough for Minnesota to win this game here, you know
57:23
Speaker 2: what I mean. Like, if Martin's gonna do worse here
57:27
Speaker 2: and he still allows like three runs or something at
57:30
Speaker 2: six innings, you know what I mean, that still might
57:32
Speaker 2: be enough to get Chicago win here. Chicago's won Martin's
57:36
Speaker 2: last eight starts, and in fact, ten of eleven of
57:39
Speaker 2: his starts they've won, and the only one they lost
57:41
Speaker 2: Chicago didn't score any runs. Martin's been really, really good, man.
57:46
Speaker 2: He's allowed way fer than one hit per inning over
57:49
Speaker 2: one strike upper inning in. His walk rate is also low,
57:52
Speaker 2: and Minnesota has seen him before because he's in their division,
57:55
Speaker 2: and even when Martin wasn't pitching well, Minnesota still didn't
57:58
Speaker 2: really hit him that well. Over numbers against Minnesota are good,
58:02
Speaker 2: including that last start against them, seventy two at bats
58:05
Speaker 2: two twenty two average, six, forty five ohps, seventeen to
58:09
Speaker 2: eleven strike up walk ratio. That walk number is the
58:11
Speaker 2: only real concern here. The rest of these numbers are good,
58:14
Speaker 2: so I think Martin will likely pitch well here. Again,
58:18
Speaker 2: he is going up against Connor Prelip. I think the
58:22
Speaker 2: handicap on him is going to be a little bit different. Man.
58:24
Speaker 2: Pre Lip is a young pitcher. He's he was pitching well,
58:27
Speaker 2: but he started to fall apart here. Man. He's got
58:29
Speaker 2: a five point one to three ERA, one point three
58:31
Speaker 2: to five whip not great. He's been really good at
58:34
Speaker 2: home though, two point eight to one homeyray, so that's good.
58:37
Speaker 2: But his last two outings were both very, very ugly.
58:42
Speaker 2: He was pitching pretty well up until that. Up until
58:44
Speaker 2: that point the Red Sox were able to get to him,
58:48
Speaker 2: even though the White Sox still managed to somehow win
58:50
Speaker 2: that game in Fenway, pre Lip did not pitch well there.
58:53
Speaker 2: I think I lost an over on the excuse me
58:55
Speaker 2: an under. The game went over, obviously, I think I
58:58
Speaker 2: lost an under on the show in that game. Then
59:00
Speaker 2: his next game, I think I might have at least
59:03
Speaker 2: leaned to an under in his next game, and that
59:05
Speaker 2: game got completely out of hand. He got lit up
59:08
Speaker 2: by the White Sox in that game. So now here's
59:11
Speaker 2: the thing. He had an unfamiliarity advantage going into that game.
59:16
Speaker 2: I talk about this when a young pitcher has an
59:17
Speaker 2: advantage or a young pitcher ten to seven advantage against
59:21
Speaker 2: lineups that have never faced him before, and that was
59:23
Speaker 2: the case with Prelip. The White Sox still knocked him around.
59:27
Speaker 2: So now the thing is his unfamiliarity advantage against the
59:30
Speaker 2: White Sox is gone. They just saw him, So that
59:33
Speaker 2: might be an extra disadvantage to him. Although how could
59:36
Speaker 2: he really pitch worse than this? I don't expecting a
59:38
Speaker 2: bitch worse than he did in his last outing this time.
59:41
Speaker 2: But even if he improves on that, I don't think
59:43
Speaker 2: it's gonna be good enough, you know what I mean.
59:45
Speaker 2: So I like the White Sox in this game for
59:47
Speaker 2: these reasons. Prelip also has been walking a lot of
59:50
Speaker 2: guys here. Twenty four strikeouts twelve walks over the month
59:54
Speaker 2: of May. That's not good. In twenty four and a
59:56
Speaker 2: third innings twenty five hits lad that walk rate is bad, dude,
1:00:00
Speaker 2: over the course of the season. Still a fairly high
1:00:03
Speaker 2: walk rate. It's a pretty low hit rate, which is good.
1:00:05
Speaker 2: And his strike gout rates good though. So he does
1:00:07
Speaker 2: have some talent, I think, but he's starting to really
1:00:11
Speaker 2: fall out a form here. The White Sox are gonna
1:00:13
Speaker 2: be I think, the first team to face him twice.
1:00:16
Speaker 2: And that's the thing, like with Martin. I know, Martin
1:00:19
Speaker 2: just pitched against the against the Twins, but he's so
1:00:22
Speaker 2: familiar to the Twins, I don't think that matters as much,
1:00:25
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, because they've already seen him
1:00:26
Speaker 2: a bunch. With pre Lip, the disadvantage comes in when
1:00:30
Speaker 2: you've never seen him before, and then once you have,
1:00:31
Speaker 2: if you see him again right away. I think that's
1:00:33
Speaker 2: the biggest disadvantage a young pitcher can have if they're
1:00:37
Speaker 2: facing that same team twice in a row, facing them
1:00:40
Speaker 2: for that second time. Ever, so I think he's at
1:00:43
Speaker 2: a disadvantage here. His numbers against the White Sox are terrible,
1:00:46
Speaker 2: which makes sense because it was just that one start
1:00:48
Speaker 2: that he made against them, seventeen at bats four to
1:00:51
Speaker 2: seventy one average, allowed one fifty six oh ps, four
1:00:55
Speaker 2: to two strike up walk ratio. So I like the
1:00:57
Speaker 2: White Sox here. They even I think, have a bullpen
1:01:00
Speaker 2: advantage here. But the money is not agreeing with me
1:01:03
Speaker 2: on this. The White Sox are favored, and you know,
1:01:05
Speaker 2: do they deserve to be a road favorite here? I
1:01:09
Speaker 2: don't know. It's it's debate the mom Maybe not, Maybe
1:01:12
Speaker 2: they shouldn't be a road favorite here. Martin is getting
1:01:14
Speaker 2: a lot of respect from the oddsmakers. Now minus one
1:01:18
Speaker 2: twenty or so is the price here on them. It
1:01:21
Speaker 2: looks like some of the Sharper books that like the
1:01:24
Speaker 2: Vegas books here, have that number a little bit lower though,
1:01:27
Speaker 2: which is a little bit of a lean towards Minnesota there,
1:01:29
Speaker 2: which that worries me a little bit that the market
1:01:32
Speaker 2: indicators are kind of indicating towards Minnesota. Ninety three percent
1:01:35
Speaker 2: of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on a
1:01:37
Speaker 2: very public White Sox side here, I'm gonna skip the game,
1:01:42
Speaker 2: but I do like I lean to the White Sox
1:01:44
Speaker 2: in that game. I consider putting it on my card,
1:01:46
Speaker 2: but I'll stay off of it. Dirty sock. What's up?
1:01:50
Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out all right? The next game is
1:01:54
Speaker 2: another one of my plays, actually, and it's gonna be
1:01:56
Speaker 2: a total, so you probably know what it is. San
1:01:59
Speaker 2: Francisco Milwaukee. It's one of my patented totals that I
1:02:03
Speaker 2: like to do. I feel like we just had this
1:02:04
Speaker 2: matchup not that long ago between these two teams. Maybe
1:02:07
Speaker 2: I'm wrong about that yesterday, though I don't know what
1:02:10
Speaker 2: happened with my man Roup yesterday. He got routed in
1:02:13
Speaker 2: the game yesterday. It looks like good thing we didn't
1:02:16
Speaker 2: go with anything related to what I thought about that
1:02:18
Speaker 2: game yesterday. Milwaukee won yesterday's game sixteen to two. That's insane.
1:02:24
Speaker 2: So maybe San Francisco will be a little bit motivated
1:02:26
Speaker 2: here to bounce back. Although San Francisco is not a
1:02:29
Speaker 2: very good team, and although they're pitching is usually what's
1:02:31
Speaker 2: good about them, they're hitting has been the problem over
1:02:35
Speaker 2: the last couple of years. And even though I know
1:02:37
Speaker 2: San Francisco broke out with a huge offensive game a
1:02:39
Speaker 2: couple of games ago, it was that course field against
1:02:42
Speaker 2: some bad Colorado pitching. That is not what we're looking
1:02:45
Speaker 2: at here. We're looking at the Brewers at home here.
1:02:47
Speaker 2: The Brewers did use four relief pitchers yesterday though, because
1:02:50
Speaker 2: they went with like a bullpen game yesterday. But they
1:02:53
Speaker 2: mostly used like long relief type of guys. So and
1:02:57
Speaker 2: they have a good starter on the mound today, which
1:03:00
Speaker 2: got to mention yet, I forgot to bring up the
1:03:02
Speaker 2: best bet visuals here. We're going under in this game,
1:03:07
Speaker 2: if that wasn't obvious, under seven and a half in
1:03:10
Speaker 2: this game, minus one twenty was the best price I
1:03:13
Speaker 2: could find out there. Minus one twenty five was around
1:03:17
Speaker 2: you know, you might have to go under seven, which
1:03:19
Speaker 2: I don't like as much. Of course, Streamyard is putting
1:03:22
Speaker 2: a timer on this. Come on, man, I hate when
1:03:25
Speaker 2: it does this. I'm gonna fix that right now. Yeah,
1:03:28
Speaker 2: the timers are off on the rest of the they
1:03:30
Speaker 2: you go under seven and a half there, I think
1:03:32
Speaker 2: you can still find it around this price out there.
1:03:34
Speaker 2: I'd prefer to have the hook here because seven is
1:03:37
Speaker 2: a key number. You need to break a three to
1:03:39
Speaker 2: three tie. So if you're taking under seven, there's a
1:03:42
Speaker 2: much higher likelihood of a push there or even a
1:03:45
Speaker 2: loss but I would still probably agree with it under seven. Obviously,
1:03:48
Speaker 2: if i'm if I'm recommending under seven and a half,
1:03:51
Speaker 2: I still agree with that. But I think finding an
1:03:53
Speaker 2: under seven and a half, even upwards of minus one
1:03:55
Speaker 2: twenty five, I think might be worth it here. Now. Yes,
1:03:58
Speaker 2: Milwaukee use some of their long relief men here, but
1:04:01
Speaker 2: they have a good starter on the mount and they
1:04:03
Speaker 2: have a good bullpen, so I'm okay with going full
1:04:05
Speaker 2: game on this. They have the number ten ranked bullpen here,
1:04:08
Speaker 2: one of the best bullpen. The r Rays Giants bullpen,
1:04:11
Speaker 2: I know, is ranked twenty first. I know they're a
1:04:14
Speaker 2: little sketchy, but their e rays still below four. Their
1:04:17
Speaker 2: eray is better than like all these teams around them,
1:04:19
Speaker 2: so I don't think their bullpen is that bad. If
1:04:22
Speaker 2: you want to go first five on this, you could
1:04:24
Speaker 2: do that too. San Francisco only these two relief pitches
1:04:26
Speaker 2: as well, and I think they were kind of long
1:04:28
Speaker 2: relief men too, because the game was completely out of
1:04:31
Speaker 2: hand yesterday, which also makes me like this under because
1:04:35
Speaker 2: when you have a game where one team does all
1:04:39
Speaker 2: the damage, right, so it's a high scoring game sixteen
1:04:42
Speaker 2: runs from Milwaukee yesterday, but it's a blowout. I think
1:04:45
Speaker 2: it makes sense to look towards the under in the
1:04:47
Speaker 2: next game, because the public's not gonna want to play
1:04:50
Speaker 2: an under because oh, my god, Milwaukee just scored sixteen
1:04:52
Speaker 2: runs yesterday. But also that, you know, so you're fading
1:04:58
Speaker 2: kind of the public sentiment after that what happen and
1:05:00
Speaker 2: yesterday there might be a little bit of an overreaction
1:05:02
Speaker 2: to it. But the good thing about it being a
1:05:04
Speaker 2: blowout is that none of the better pitchers pitched out
1:05:06
Speaker 2: of the bullpens. You know what I mean, when the
1:05:08
Speaker 2: game's completely out of hand, you see stuff like, oh,
1:05:11
Speaker 2: we're gonna have our catcher going and throw it in
1:05:13
Speaker 2: and you know what I mean, So the bullpens Usually
1:05:15
Speaker 2: in a game like that, the bullpens actually are set
1:05:17
Speaker 2: up a little bit better in the next game than
1:05:19
Speaker 2: you would think. So I like that here. The hitting
1:05:23
Speaker 2: hasn't really been that great up for either team. Milwaukee's
1:05:26
Speaker 2: just come around a little bit. They're nineteenth San Francisco.
1:05:29
Speaker 2: I know they ranked fifteenth right now, but they were
1:05:31
Speaker 2: a bottom several offense before that one breakout game. Or
1:05:35
Speaker 2: they scored nineteen in course field, I'm not buying it.
1:05:38
Speaker 2: They're not a good offense, so I think this is
1:05:40
Speaker 2: good in that respect as well, that the offenses could
1:05:44
Speaker 2: be held down a bit here. And I like to
1:05:46
Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup. We got two pretty young pitchers who
1:05:50
Speaker 2: were pretty unfamiliar with the offense as they're facing here.
1:05:53
Speaker 2: Trevor McDonald's pitching for the Giants. He let us down
1:05:56
Speaker 2: the last time we went with an under with his game,
1:05:58
Speaker 2: I know, but I'm gonna go back to it again here.
1:06:01
Speaker 2: I think he's not a bad pitcher. He's got a
1:06:03
Speaker 2: four point three four ERA not good, but a one
1:06:06
Speaker 2: point seven whip is good. Indicates that his r should
1:06:09
Speaker 2: probably be better than that. He's been good on the road.
1:06:11
Speaker 2: You know, it doesn't make a ton of sense because
1:06:13
Speaker 2: San Francisco is a pitcher friendly park but a three
1:06:16
Speaker 2: road RRA. So we're gonna play into the better of
1:06:18
Speaker 2: his home road splits here. His one. He had one
1:06:22
Speaker 2: bad start at home against the White Sox, and that
1:06:24
Speaker 2: was that start where we lost on an under in
1:06:26
Speaker 2: that one. I think Davis Martin was on the other
1:06:28
Speaker 2: side of that one. I don't know what happened in
1:06:30
Speaker 2: that game, but whatever, I might be wrong about Martin
1:06:34
Speaker 2: being involved in that game, but I think he was.
1:06:36
Speaker 2: I don't know. That was just a bad game all
1:06:38
Speaker 2: around there. McDonald was really bad in that game. But
1:06:42
Speaker 2: he did have four strikeouts one walk, so his command
1:06:45
Speaker 2: numbers were okay there. Actually he really got unlucky. I mean,
1:06:48
Speaker 2: look at what his pitching line was in that game.
1:06:50
Speaker 2: Three hits, yet he allowed seven earned runs on three
1:06:54
Speaker 2: hits in one walk. Are you serious? Like, how is
1:06:57
Speaker 2: that even possible? And none of the runs were unearned.
1:07:00
Speaker 2: I don't even get that. But if you hold a
1:07:02
Speaker 2: team to fewer than one hit an inning and only
1:07:04
Speaker 2: walk one guy while you're out there, the chances are
1:07:06
Speaker 2: gonna get blasted for that many runs are next to nothing.
1:07:10
Speaker 2: So I think he actually got unlucky. I think that
1:07:12
Speaker 2: was a misleading pitching line there. And then if you
1:07:17
Speaker 2: look at all the rest of his starts, he's allowed
1:07:19
Speaker 2: three or four earned runs and all the rest of
1:07:21
Speaker 2: them twenty seven to six strike up walk ratio overall
1:07:24
Speaker 2: this season, twenty five hits allout in twenty nine innings.
1:07:27
Speaker 2: All the rest of these numbers are good, and this
1:07:30
Speaker 2: includes a start on the road against the Dodgers where
1:07:32
Speaker 2: he was able to hold them in check enough that
1:07:35
Speaker 2: San Francisco won the game, even though they got some
1:07:37
Speaker 2: hits off him. He worked his way through it. And
1:07:40
Speaker 2: then the next outing you had to go to the
1:07:41
Speaker 2: A's Stadium, which we know is a very hitter friendly stadium,
1:07:44
Speaker 2: and he pitched well there too. Last time out, he
1:07:47
Speaker 2: pitched pretty well against an Arizona lineup. That is not
1:07:50
Speaker 2: a joke. So I like McDonald, dude. I think his
1:07:53
Speaker 2: one bad start is misleading, and he's unfamiliar to Milwaukee,
1:07:57
Speaker 2: so he has an extra advantage here of being a talent,
1:08:00
Speaker 2: young pitcher who the opposing offense has never faced before.
1:08:03
Speaker 2: So I think McDonald sets up to pitch well here,
1:08:06
Speaker 2: and he has pitched a little bit otherwise. He made
1:08:08
Speaker 2: two starts last year and made one relief appearance that
1:08:12
Speaker 2: year and one relief appearance of the year before that,
1:08:14
Speaker 2: and he was actually good in those appearances too, so
1:08:16
Speaker 2: he has a little bit of major league history here,
1:08:19
Speaker 2: including as a starter, so that looks good as well.
1:08:22
Speaker 2: Then on the other side, of course, we have the
1:08:24
Speaker 2: more trustworthy of the two pitchers, the more established pitcher,
1:08:28
Speaker 2: Kyle Harrison. I like this as well. He's been awesome, dude,
1:08:33
Speaker 2: which doesn't make me feel great because the Red Sox
1:08:37
Speaker 2: traded him away for Caleb Durban and a couple other guys.
1:08:41
Speaker 2: One point five to seven r RA for Harrison, one
1:08:43
Speaker 2: point zero three WHIP And while again those numbers are
1:08:46
Speaker 2: like unsustainably good, he's obviously good, and his other numbers
1:08:50
Speaker 2: support that he's been a little bit better at home.
1:08:53
Speaker 2: Those home road splits are pretty insignificant. He's allowed no
1:08:57
Speaker 2: runs over his last three starts I include one on
1:09:00
Speaker 2: the road against the Cubs or he struck out eleven. Yeah,
1:09:04
Speaker 2: he's just he's doing really really well right now. Obviously,
1:09:09
Speaker 2: he's allowed two or fewer in runs in every start
1:09:11
Speaker 2: this entire season, well over one strike up per inning,
1:09:14
Speaker 2: well below one hit per inning. Walk grade is fairly
1:09:17
Speaker 2: low as well. All of his numbers are good. Brewers
1:09:20
Speaker 2: have won all but one all but two of his
1:09:23
Speaker 2: starts the season, excuse me, and then won his last
1:09:25
Speaker 2: seven straight starts, including also he had one against the
1:09:29
Speaker 2: Yankees where he did struggle a little bit in that game,
1:09:31
Speaker 2: but he kind of worked his way through it enough
1:09:33
Speaker 2: that Milwaukee still wound up getting a win there and
1:09:36
Speaker 2: the bullpen actually pitched well there. So that's a good
1:09:38
Speaker 2: sign for this under here as well, because that game.
1:09:41
Speaker 2: I think we might have had the under in that
1:09:42
Speaker 2: game and it landed seven, so that I think wound
1:09:46
Speaker 2: up still going under the total. If we had that,
1:09:48
Speaker 2: I don't remember. And the start before that, Harrison had
1:09:52
Speaker 2: another shutout, a one hit, six inning shutout against Pittsburgh.
1:09:56
Speaker 2: It was also a good offense with double digit strikeouts. Yeah,
1:09:59
Speaker 2: we get Harrison's good. Now. The other thing about this
1:10:02
Speaker 2: is he's facing San Francisco, possibly for the first time
1:10:08
Speaker 2: since he was Yeah, so San Francisco had him until
1:10:12
Speaker 2: right at the end of last year. The Red Sox
1:10:14
Speaker 2: only had to make two starts. Now he's on Milwaukee
1:10:17
Speaker 2: this year, so this is gonna be his first time
1:10:19
Speaker 2: facing one of the teams that got rid of him,
1:10:21
Speaker 2: San Francisco, which is I think where he pretty much
1:10:23
Speaker 2: started his career. Yeah, so, he was on San Francisco
1:10:27
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty three, had a full season with them
1:10:30
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four pretty much as a starter. Then
1:10:33
Speaker 2: they got rid of him last year in the Dever's trade.
1:10:37
Speaker 2: Pitched a little bit with the Red Sox, but this
1:10:38
Speaker 2: is gonna be his first time going up against San Francisco,
1:10:41
Speaker 2: So I think that's an extra motivational ledge. Like I
1:10:44
Speaker 2: just said, I mentioned that with one of these other
1:10:45
Speaker 2: pitchers today too. It applies to Harrison as well. Usually,
1:10:48
Speaker 2: when these starting pitchers go up against the team that
1:10:51
Speaker 2: got rid of them, especially if it's the team that
1:10:53
Speaker 2: he spent almost his entire career with, usually this guy
1:10:57
Speaker 2: is gonna get pumped to face his former team and
1:10:59
Speaker 2: want to pitch, well, you know what I mean, like
1:11:01
Speaker 2: prove himself, be like this. You know you got rid
1:11:04
Speaker 2: of me, Well I'm gonna show you, you know what
1:11:06
Speaker 2: I mean. So I think it's a little bit of
1:11:08
Speaker 2: an extra motivator here. Even though yes, I know that
1:11:10
Speaker 2: means San Francisco is familiar with how he pitches and whatever,
1:11:13
Speaker 2: but they also it also means they haven't really seen
1:11:15
Speaker 2: him in a real game environment where he's really trying
1:11:18
Speaker 2: to get them out, except for a ray As basically
1:11:21
Speaker 2: who does basically all the damage against him. Yeah, San
1:11:25
Speaker 2: Francisco has three inters who face him before. They're four
1:11:27
Speaker 2: for ten off him with three strikeouts and no walks.
1:11:30
Speaker 2: But it's such a small sample size, I'm gonna almost
1:11:34
Speaker 2: just kind of throw this out. Really, what you need
1:11:38
Speaker 2: to read into is San Francisco is pretty unfamiliar with Harrison.
1:11:41
Speaker 2: Most of their lineup hasn't seen him before. He's been
1:11:43
Speaker 2: pitching great this season, so I think it's not going
1:11:47
Speaker 2: out on a limb to say. I think it's more
1:11:48
Speaker 2: like a Harrison's gonna pitch well than not here, especially
1:11:53
Speaker 2: against the San Francisco lineup that I don't think is good.
1:11:55
Speaker 2: So under is the call here. And finally we see
1:11:58
Speaker 2: market numbers coming in here. Eighty percent of the tickets
1:12:01
Speaker 2: ninety three percent of the cash on the under in
1:12:03
Speaker 2: this one, so the money is backing it. We got
1:12:05
Speaker 2: seven juice, seven and a half juice to the under,
1:12:08
Speaker 2: A various outlets here. If this thing would allow me
1:12:12
Speaker 2: to scroll up so I can see what book this is?
1:12:15
Speaker 2: What is going on? Dude? This site just it needs
1:12:19
Speaker 2: to be better designed. I think that was FD that site.
1:12:24
Speaker 2: It looks like it has the best number for you
1:12:26
Speaker 2: on this under right now. By the way, the money
1:12:28
Speaker 2: is heavily coming in in Toronto, by the way, so
1:12:31
Speaker 2: I like to see that too. This is the only
1:12:35
Speaker 2: game that looks like it has the total numbers. Actually,
1:12:38
Speaker 2: San Diego Philly looks like it does as well. But yeah,
1:12:41
Speaker 2: so the under looks like it's getting some action. I
1:12:43
Speaker 2: don't think the public is really coming in and playing
1:12:45
Speaker 2: it under here. I mean, these are still not name
1:12:47
Speaker 2: pitchers here, so I think this is mostly professional money here.
1:12:51
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think you'll find the best number at
1:12:53
Speaker 2: the FD book. It's right around. It looks like it's
1:12:56
Speaker 2: at minus one eighteen right now, so I would go
1:12:58
Speaker 2: even up to probably about minus one twenty five to
1:13:01
Speaker 2: get the hook on that. That's the play in that game.
1:13:04
Speaker 2: All right, where are we at here? We're over over
1:13:06
Speaker 2: an hour ten already because I've been rambling. Usually I
1:13:10
Speaker 2: take a break when I have about five games left
1:13:12
Speaker 2: to talk about. All right, Texas and Saint Louis. I
1:13:15
Speaker 2: do not have a play on this game, and Firefox
1:13:18
Speaker 2: did not let me open a new tab there. These
1:13:21
Speaker 2: two teams played yesterday. Texas won the game two to one.
1:13:24
Speaker 2: Jacob de Grom, with another win yesterday, pitched well, even
1:13:28
Speaker 2: though I pointed out there were some things I didn't
1:13:30
Speaker 2: like about the way de gram was pitching on the road,
1:13:33
Speaker 2: but he's gonna be a Hall of Fame pitcher man.
1:13:35
Speaker 2: Apparently it was his son's third birthday yesterday, so maybe
1:13:39
Speaker 2: that motivated de Groom a little bit. I didn't factor
1:13:41
Speaker 2: that into my handicap. I was not aware of that,
1:13:46
Speaker 2: but congratulations to all of them, to the de gram family.
1:13:51
Speaker 2: Texas used four relief pitchers yesterday though, including some of
1:13:55
Speaker 2: their better relievers, so that's not great. They have a
1:13:57
Speaker 2: good bullpen. They have the better bullpend here, but they're
1:14:00
Speaker 2: bullpen rest scenario is not that great. Saint Louis did
1:14:02
Speaker 2: use three themselves though in a close, low scoring game here,
1:14:06
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna still give Texas a bullpen advantage here.
1:14:08
Speaker 2: They are the number nine ranked bullpen. Saint Louis is eighteenth.
1:14:12
Speaker 2: I think Texas is probably better than ninth too. Uh.
1:14:15
Speaker 2: Saint Louis has the better offense, but they've fallen off
1:14:18
Speaker 2: of it. They're all the way down to twentieth. They're
1:14:20
Speaker 2: actually tied with the Red Sox, the Marlins, and the Rangers,
1:14:24
Speaker 2: so both these teams are tied right now in OPS
1:14:26
Speaker 2: at twentieth, although I think Saint Louis's offense is somewhat better.
1:14:30
Speaker 2: This is a pitcher friendly park here, by the way,
1:14:34
Speaker 2: in Saint Louis. Both these teams playing pitcher friendly ballparks.
1:14:37
Speaker 2: Nathany Yavaldi is getting the start for the Rangers. He
1:14:40
Speaker 2: was shaky at the beginning of the season, but he's
1:14:42
Speaker 2: obviously turned it on. He was great last year and
1:14:45
Speaker 2: he's pitching pretty well again right now. Three point nine
1:14:48
Speaker 2: three era, one point one point one whip. That's good.
1:14:51
Speaker 2: That whip indicateses Era probably should be a little bit lower.
1:14:54
Speaker 2: He's been good on the road three point five to nine.
1:14:56
Speaker 2: Roady Ray. Don't know why he struggled at home so far,
1:15:00
Speaker 2: because that's usually a very pitcher conducive ballpark there. Didn't
1:15:04
Speaker 2: pitch well last time out really against Houston. Gave up
1:15:07
Speaker 2: five runs at home, but if you dig into that,
1:15:10
Speaker 2: he went seven innings, he only got four hits, two walks,
1:15:12
Speaker 2: he allowed two home runs, so the home run ball
1:15:15
Speaker 2: has been a problem for Valdi. But it looks like
1:15:18
Speaker 2: he got kind of unlucky in that outing because basically
1:15:20
Speaker 2: everybody that reached base scored against him, and he had
1:15:23
Speaker 2: six strikeouts, So I don't think that was actually a
1:15:25
Speaker 2: bad start from him. And Houston had just faced him
1:15:29
Speaker 2: two starts prior to that too, and he had dominated them,
1:15:32
Speaker 2: so maybe they made some adjustments there a little bit,
1:15:34
Speaker 2: but he evolved. He is pitching well. He's allowed three
1:15:37
Speaker 2: or four earned runs and four of his last five outings. Overall,
1:15:41
Speaker 2: pretty good numbers, almost one strike up per inning, well
1:15:43
Speaker 2: below one hit per inning. Walk rate is fine, and
1:15:47
Speaker 2: his home run rate is the only problem. He's allowed
1:15:49
Speaker 2: too many home runs so far, so he has to
1:15:52
Speaker 2: fix that to some degree here. Saint Louis, even though
1:15:55
Speaker 2: he Havevaldi's been around for a long time. He's mostly
1:15:58
Speaker 2: been in the National League for quite a while now,
1:16:00
Speaker 2: I think, or excuse American League for quite a while.
1:16:03
Speaker 2: I think he was in the National League really early
1:16:04
Speaker 2: in his career on the Marlins, if I'm right about that. Yeah,
1:16:08
Speaker 2: I remember being on the Marlins. He was on the Dodgers,
1:16:10
Speaker 2: I guess prior to that. But he's been in the
1:16:12
Speaker 2: American League for a long time. Yankees, Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas.
1:16:17
Speaker 2: So that's why Saint Louis has basically never faced him before.
1:16:20
Speaker 2: He's been around for forever. Saint Louis has got a
1:16:23
Speaker 2: young lineup. Only two of their hitters have faced him before.
1:16:26
Speaker 2: Win is the only guy that has a hit off him.
1:16:28
Speaker 2: They're one for six combined with a single, no strikeouts,
1:16:31
Speaker 2: no walks, so Evaldi is actually unfamiliar to them, so
1:16:35
Speaker 2: that might be a little bit of an extra advantage
1:16:36
Speaker 2: to them, even though of course he Evaldi's no mystery
1:16:40
Speaker 2: to the major leagues, though, but it looks like he
1:16:43
Speaker 2: might pitch well here based on all the things that
1:16:45
Speaker 2: we just looked at. Dustin May is the pitcher I
1:16:48
Speaker 2: would trust less here going for Saint Louis, but he's
1:16:51
Speaker 2: actually been decent recently. He's coming off having a pretty
1:16:55
Speaker 2: good May. But maybe that maybe May just pitches well
1:16:57
Speaker 2: in May. I'm not sure. I haven't really looked and
1:17:01
Speaker 2: how that if that's been the case or not in
1:17:03
Speaker 2: prior years. His overall numbers don't look very good though,
1:17:06
Speaker 2: four point five to seventy RA, one point three whip.
1:17:09
Speaker 2: He's been a little bit worse at home four point
1:17:11
Speaker 2: eight six homye RA. But like I said, his May
1:17:14
Speaker 2: was actually good. He went six plus innings in all
1:17:16
Speaker 2: but one outing, allowed three or fewer earned runs in
1:17:20
Speaker 2: all but that one outing against Pittsburgh. They're a good lineups,
1:17:23
Speaker 2: so maybe you give him a pass for that. He
1:17:24
Speaker 2: still wasn't even really that bad in that outing. Twenty
1:17:27
Speaker 2: nine strikeouts in thirty to third innings in the month
1:17:30
Speaker 2: of May, twenty two hits. All those numbers are good
1:17:32
Speaker 2: the only problem was ten walks. He had too many walks,
1:17:36
Speaker 2: so that was the one issue there that month, and
1:17:38
Speaker 2: then the hitting didn't really help him either. Saint Louis
1:17:41
Speaker 2: lost four of his five outings there. His overall numbers
1:17:45
Speaker 2: they're not really that bad. He's allowed right around one
1:17:47
Speaker 2: hit per inning. His strike cut rates a little low,
1:17:49
Speaker 2: but right in line, but they think what you kind
1:17:51
Speaker 2: of expect out of him. His walk rates not really
1:17:53
Speaker 2: that bad either, so his overall numbers are really not
1:17:56
Speaker 2: that bad. Texas has not seen him much at all.
1:18:00
Speaker 2: Only Nimo and Peterson have ever faced him, but they've
1:18:03
Speaker 2: hit him well. When they have faced him. They're three
1:18:05
Speaker 2: for nine with a couple of doubles in their four strikeouts,
1:18:08
Speaker 2: two walks, three point thirty three average one ten ops.
1:18:12
Speaker 2: But it's a very limited sample size. I'm not gonna
1:18:16
Speaker 2: do anything with this one. But yeah, I don't know.
1:18:19
Speaker 2: I mean Texas, I mean to me, they have the
1:18:22
Speaker 2: pitching edge here, both of the starting pitcher and the bullpens.
1:18:26
Speaker 2: But the ticket percentages on Texas fifty nine percent, fifty
1:18:31
Speaker 2: three percent of the cash they'll want Saint Louis, So
1:18:33
Speaker 2: the money's indicating on Saint Louis and it looks like
1:18:36
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a low scoring game. Texas is favored
1:18:38
Speaker 2: on the road. He evolved getting respect in the market
1:18:41
Speaker 2: here at around minus one ten, maybe a little bit
1:18:44
Speaker 2: less than that. You know, the the Vegas, you know,
1:18:49
Speaker 2: Sharp Casino, Leans seems to be kind of leaning towards
1:18:52
Speaker 2: Saint Louis here along with the money. So do with
1:18:55
Speaker 2: that information what you want. I guess maybe the thinking is,
1:18:58
Speaker 2: you know, this matchups seems he's probably a little bit
1:19:01
Speaker 2: closer than maybe people think that it is, so you know,
1:19:04
Speaker 2: maybe it'll be a close, low scoring game. The oddsmaker
1:19:07
Speaker 2: seem to think so, because the total seven, and usually
1:19:10
Speaker 2: when it's that low, you know, it's that low for
1:19:13
Speaker 2: a reason. So maybe there is some indicator that maybe
1:19:17
Speaker 2: it makes sense that there's just a little bit of
1:19:19
Speaker 2: value playing Saint Louis as a home underdog. I would
1:19:22
Speaker 2: not want to do it. I think their bullpen's a
1:19:24
Speaker 2: big disadvantage too, So yeah, I don't really see it.
1:19:28
Speaker 2: If you do it, maybe you go first five only
1:19:31
Speaker 2: I don't know, and then you just hope for a
1:19:33
Speaker 2: pitching duel that's close. But if you're hoping for a
1:19:36
Speaker 2: pitching duel. Maybe you should just play the under. I
1:19:38
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know if I'd want to go
1:19:40
Speaker 2: full game under though Texas is better relievers not being available,
1:19:44
Speaker 2: and Saint Louis is bullpend not being particularly trustworthy, so
1:19:48
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's a game I don't want to
1:19:49
Speaker 2: have any money on.
1:19:50
Speaker 5: Though.
1:19:51
Speaker 2: The next game up is going to be my last play,
1:19:54
Speaker 2: and you probably know what it is based on my
1:19:56
Speaker 2: inter league discussion. I'll be right back. Hopefully we're gonna
1:19:59
Speaker 2: get a couple good plays out of this today, but
1:20:01
Speaker 2: I like these plays, so hopefully we can get it
1:20:03
Speaker 2: done and watch the White Sox will catch. We'll lose
1:20:07
Speaker 2: at least one of my plays and the White Sox
1:20:09
Speaker 2: will cash. Just watch that happen, because the White Sox
1:20:11
Speaker 2: are like one of the ones that was close to
1:20:13
Speaker 2: making my cot and didn't. But all right, I'll be
1:20:16
Speaker 2: right back. Okay, next game, like I said, is going
1:21:42
Speaker 2: to be a play for me, and we might need
1:21:43
Speaker 2: to break out the Van Halen for this one. I
1:21:53
Speaker 2: don't have a drop for this, and I know there's
1:21:55
Speaker 2: copyright and stuff like that. You might be able to
1:21:57
Speaker 2: use a short clip of a song. Nobody's gonna get
1:22:01
Speaker 2: what I'm even saying here, But we're gonna take the
1:22:03
Speaker 2: A's in the first five innings on the money line,
1:22:05
Speaker 2: which you can get a little bit of an underdog
1:22:07
Speaker 2: price here. I'm gonna take their bullpen out because their
1:22:11
Speaker 2: bullpen has definitely at a bit of a disadvantage here.
1:22:13
Speaker 2: They're not a good bullpen. But I like this play,
1:22:16
Speaker 2: and the reason why I made the Van Haleen reference
1:22:18
Speaker 2: is because we're gonna we're gonna jump on gauge jump here.
1:22:22
Speaker 2: I don't like the market read here. The money is
1:22:24
Speaker 2: fading me in this one fifty The tickets are on
1:22:27
Speaker 2: the A's seventy two percent of the cash on the Cubs.
1:22:30
Speaker 2: But it's a low totalm so it means wind is
1:22:33
Speaker 2: gonna be blowing in. It looks like basically in a
1:22:36
Speaker 2: Wrigley Field. I almost said, course Wrigley Field, uh seven
1:22:40
Speaker 2: and a half. Juice to the under is the total here.
1:22:43
Speaker 2: I think an underdog is a lot of times the
1:22:46
Speaker 2: way to look when the total is low, because it
1:22:48
Speaker 2: means a lower scoring game. So if you're getting plus
1:22:50
Speaker 2: money on what's supposed to be a close game, a
1:22:52
Speaker 2: lot of times it makes sense. But I like this
1:22:55
Speaker 2: for a lot of reasons, including gauge jump, which is
1:22:58
Speaker 2: one of the best names in baseball. By the way,
1:23:03
Speaker 2: neither of these teams played yesterday, so I think it's
1:23:06
Speaker 2: gonna be a lower scoring game for that reason as well,
1:23:09
Speaker 2: because the offenses may have cooled off a little bit,
1:23:11
Speaker 2: and we may have some distracted hitting here on the
1:23:13
Speaker 2: Cubs side especially, and the bullpens get a chance to rest.
1:23:18
Speaker 2: Now the Cubs are in a bad spot. This is very,
1:23:21
Speaker 2: very similar to that Toronto play that I gave out
1:23:24
Speaker 2: in that the Cubs were turning home from the road.
1:23:26
Speaker 2: I know they were staying within their division though they
1:23:28
Speaker 2: went to Pittsburgh and Saint Louis. It's not exactly a
1:23:30
Speaker 2: horrible travel spot, but it's still negative returning home from
1:23:34
Speaker 2: a road trip. You've been away for a week. You
1:23:37
Speaker 2: still got to get back to home life, you got
1:23:38
Speaker 2: stuff to do. You're playing an American League team. I
1:23:41
Speaker 2: don't know, man, it seems like the Cubs, even though
1:23:43
Speaker 2: they've been struggling a bit recently, they might not have
1:23:45
Speaker 2: full focus in a spot like this on an AL team. Meanwhile,
1:23:49
Speaker 2: the AA is they're coming in they are having to
1:23:53
Speaker 2: travel time zones. I get it. But it's easier for
1:23:56
Speaker 2: a team to travel from west further east in my opinion,
1:24:00
Speaker 2: because the shift in time zone doesn't, you know, affect
1:24:03
Speaker 2: their biological clock the same way. Like a team that's
1:24:06
Speaker 2: an easterly team going all the way out to the
1:24:08
Speaker 2: Pacific Coast to play like a late night game, they're
1:24:10
Speaker 2: playing like midnight their time by the end of it,
1:24:13
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, Like a West Coast team
1:24:15
Speaker 2: going and playing in Wrigley Field at eight h five
1:24:18
Speaker 2: pm Eastern. That's not a problem because like they're playing
1:24:21
Speaker 2: at like six pm their time, so it's like playing
1:24:23
Speaker 2: a standard evening game for them based on their biological clock.
1:24:27
Speaker 2: So I don't think that's an issue. They're starting a
1:24:29
Speaker 2: road trip off a bad home stand. They lost all
1:24:32
Speaker 2: but one game. They did beat the Yankees once during
1:24:34
Speaker 2: that home stand, but coming off a bad home stand
1:24:37
Speaker 2: a lot of times the team will be focused for
1:24:39
Speaker 2: that reason too. Just get out of home where things
1:24:42
Speaker 2: aren't working. The A's tend to not play well at
1:24:44
Speaker 2: home anyway. They don't have a home advantage in that
1:24:46
Speaker 2: horrible Triple A stadium they play, so they might relish
1:24:50
Speaker 2: in going on the road here. Man, So I think
1:24:52
Speaker 2: it's a better spot for the A's here. We're taking
1:24:55
Speaker 2: the bullpen out. Like I said, the Cubs do have
1:24:57
Speaker 2: the better bullpen here. The rank eighth the as or
1:25:00
Speaker 2: twenty seconds. So I'm just gonna take that part out
1:25:03
Speaker 2: of the equation here because obviously that's not an advantage
1:25:07
Speaker 2: for the A's there. The A's have been hitting well,
1:25:09
Speaker 2: they're number nine, the Cubs are number ten, so the
1:25:11
Speaker 2: A's can compete with the Cubs on the offensive side
1:25:14
Speaker 2: of things. But like I said, we're gonna back gauge
1:25:17
Speaker 2: jump here. He's a young prospect. He's made one start
1:25:22
Speaker 2: so far, and I know, why would we do this
1:25:23
Speaker 2: when he has a seven point two ERA and a
1:25:25
Speaker 2: two whip. Well, that was only one start. He made
1:25:29
Speaker 2: his first career start and it was in the A's stadium,
1:25:31
Speaker 2: by the way, so I think you gotta give him
1:25:33
Speaker 2: a little bit of a pass for that because that
1:25:35
Speaker 2: is a hitter friendly ballpark. And yes, Seattle was able
1:25:37
Speaker 2: to hit him. They got nine hits off him in
1:25:39
Speaker 2: five innings. But what I like about this is the
1:25:41
Speaker 2: A's I think we're I think this is gonna give
1:25:45
Speaker 2: him some confidence because the A's were like whatever, like
1:25:48
Speaker 2: We're just gonna let him go five innings, eighty eight pitches,
1:25:51
Speaker 2: full starters workload, and he had five strikeouts one walk,
1:25:54
Speaker 2: so his command was on point. So I like that
1:25:57
Speaker 2: even though he allowed hits, Seattle's been hit better recently
1:26:00
Speaker 2: was in the A's stadium. I think he's going to
1:26:02
Speaker 2: pitch well in this game in my opinion, going on
1:26:06
Speaker 2: the on the road this time, I think it's gonna
1:26:08
Speaker 2: be a more pitcher from the environment this time here,
1:26:11
Speaker 2: of course, because he's going away from the A's stadium here,
1:26:14
Speaker 2: and now that he has a game under his belt,
1:26:15
Speaker 2: I think that's going to allow him to settle in
1:26:17
Speaker 2: because a lot of times a guy might have some
1:26:19
Speaker 2: nerves in his first start in the majors. Now, I
1:26:22
Speaker 2: did look at Jump. His numbers in the minors were
1:26:25
Speaker 2: a little bit questionable. I will say he pitched a
1:26:28
Speaker 2: lot in Triple A this year and he had a
1:26:31
Speaker 2: good like strikeout number stuff like that. He definitely could
1:26:34
Speaker 2: fool hitters at the major league level. His problem was
1:26:37
Speaker 2: the walks. But what's good about this is we can
1:26:39
Speaker 2: see right here he only walked one guy in five
1:26:41
Speaker 2: innings in his first major league outings, so we might
1:26:44
Speaker 2: not have to be as worried about the walks as
1:26:46
Speaker 2: maybe it would look like looking at his Triple A numbers,
1:26:49
Speaker 2: So I know the walks at triple A don't look
1:26:52
Speaker 2: that good. His whip wasn't really that good as the
1:26:54
Speaker 2: r was. I think in like the lowish fours, which
1:26:57
Speaker 2: isn't really great. But this guy's considered to be a
1:27:00
Speaker 2: really good prospect. There's a reason for that. He throws
1:27:02
Speaker 2: mid to upper nineties on the fastball, He's got a
1:27:05
Speaker 2: deep pitch mix. He has some good moving stuff. I
1:27:09
Speaker 2: guess he has a slider and a sweeper that moved differently,
1:27:12
Speaker 2: a curveball and a change up. And I guess his
1:27:14
Speaker 2: moving stuff is good and like a good change of
1:27:18
Speaker 2: pace from his fastball. And he's a lefty, and I
1:27:22
Speaker 2: guess he has a kind of deceptive arm angle as well.
1:27:26
Speaker 2: Although he's from Aliso Viejo, California, So does that mean
1:27:29
Speaker 2: his last name is actually pronounced wop guy oom, but
1:27:34
Speaker 2: that's his actual name? Maybe it is, I don't know.
1:27:39
Speaker 2: Cage Jump sounds like an awesome name though, but yeah,
1:27:42
Speaker 2: we're gonna go with him here. The Cubs have never
1:27:44
Speaker 2: seen him before. He's a talented young pitcher, so I
1:27:47
Speaker 2: think he has the advantage over hitters that haven't seen
1:27:50
Speaker 2: him before. So let's do it, man, We'll go with
1:27:54
Speaker 2: the young pitcher here. We're going up against Jamison tie On,
1:27:57
Speaker 2: who you know. I know he's been around for a while.
1:27:59
Speaker 2: I think his ERA is not indicative of what he's
1:28:02
Speaker 2: been this year. I think he's a little bit better
1:28:04
Speaker 2: than that. But he struggled a bit this year. He's
1:28:06
Speaker 2: got a five point three seven ERA one point two
1:28:09
Speaker 2: eight whip. Not excellent, but his whip indicates his ERA
1:28:12
Speaker 2: should be a little bit better than it is. He's
1:28:14
Speaker 2: been better at home, so yes, we were fading his
1:28:17
Speaker 2: home road splits here. I know, four point three to
1:28:20
Speaker 2: three home ERA, but still, I mean that's not exactly excellent.
1:28:25
Speaker 2: He's struggled recently too, so he's not in good form
1:28:28
Speaker 2: right now. And one of those starts was at home
1:28:30
Speaker 2: against Houston. He got lit up in that outing. His
1:28:33
Speaker 2: last three outings, he's a lot four plus runs in
1:28:36
Speaker 2: each of them five innings or less in each of
1:28:39
Speaker 2: those outings as well. He's not in good form right now.
1:28:43
Speaker 2: Had a very devilish six point six six ERA in
1:28:47
Speaker 2: the month of May, allowed more than one hit per inning.
1:28:50
Speaker 2: Did have a twenty to seven strike out walk ratio,
1:28:52
Speaker 2: which isn't horrible, but thirty hits a lot in twenty
1:28:55
Speaker 2: five to two thirds innings not great. He's definitely looking
1:28:57
Speaker 2: like he's Yeah, he's falling out a form. He's out
1:29:01
Speaker 2: of form right now. Overall numbers are not horrible though,
1:29:05
Speaker 2: like I said on the season, fewer than one hit
1:29:07
Speaker 2: per inning. Strike out rad is about what you would
1:29:09
Speaker 2: expect out of him, not too high. Twenty walks is
1:29:13
Speaker 2: a bit concerning, though. He's walked a lot of guys.
1:29:14
Speaker 2: And then I think he may have allowed the home
1:29:17
Speaker 2: the most home runs in baseball. I think certainly he's
1:29:20
Speaker 2: allowed the most per inning. He's allowed nineteen home runs already.
1:29:23
Speaker 2: He's allowing basically a home run every three innings. That
1:29:27
Speaker 2: is insane. So that is not something that I would
1:29:30
Speaker 2: want to back. I'm okay with fading that. In fact,
1:29:34
Speaker 2: he allowed ten home runs in the month of May,
1:29:37
Speaker 2: eight over the last three outings. That's just crazy, dude.
1:29:41
Speaker 2: And I know home runs are a bit fluky, but
1:29:43
Speaker 2: still it looks like it's a trend with him and
1:29:46
Speaker 2: going up against the A's. You guessed it. His numbers
1:29:49
Speaker 2: are not great against the A's and thirty three at bats,
1:29:51
Speaker 2: ten strikeouts, one walk is pretty good. Two seventy three
1:29:54
Speaker 2: average eight to seventy ops though, so while they don't
1:29:57
Speaker 2: kill him, they do have the advantage over him historically here,
1:30:01
Speaker 2: so in a decent enough sample that we can gauge
1:30:05
Speaker 2: something from that. So we're gonna do it. Man, this
1:30:08
Speaker 2: is the only one of my players where I guess
1:30:09
Speaker 2: I'm fading the market here in this one. Even though
1:30:11
Speaker 2: you would think that the Cubs would be a public
1:30:13
Speaker 2: side in this game though, because nobody knows who the
1:30:16
Speaker 2: hell Jump is unless the public wants to jump on
1:30:20
Speaker 2: jump on him just because his name is so ridiculous.
1:30:23
Speaker 2: I don't know, but I like it. Here we'll take
1:30:26
Speaker 2: the A's in the first five, and of course, remember
1:30:28
Speaker 2: the market read is that those are the numbers for
1:30:31
Speaker 2: the full game market. First five market, it's a little
1:30:34
Speaker 2: bit different, so of course we're excluding the disadvantageous A's
1:30:39
Speaker 2: bullpen here. Let's do it. That is my last play
1:30:43
Speaker 2: of the day, So that's it for that. But if
1:30:47
Speaker 2: you want to hear my other opinions, of course you
1:30:49
Speaker 2: can hang on. I'm gonna finish off the baseball slate,
1:30:52
Speaker 2: which is taken forever, and then w NBA has a
1:30:55
Speaker 2: bunch of games today too. I'll get through that pretty
1:30:58
Speaker 2: quick though, I think, because I don't really have a
1:31:00
Speaker 2: strong opinion on any of it. And then hockey i'll
1:31:04
Speaker 2: talk about as well. Houston and Pittsburgh. These teams did
1:31:08
Speaker 2: not play yesterday either, and this is an interesting pitching
1:31:10
Speaker 2: matchup in this game. Houston did just lose to Milwaukee
1:31:14
Speaker 2: in a shutout at home, so Houston's in a decent
1:31:17
Speaker 2: bounce back spot. I think, situationally, staying at home off
1:31:20
Speaker 2: of getting shut out at home, that's not a bad spot.
1:31:24
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is coming in starting a road trip with momentum
1:31:27
Speaker 2: off a sweep of Minnesota, so Pittsburgh may be in
1:31:30
Speaker 2: a positive spot too, because I don't think they're gonna
1:31:32
Speaker 2: be in a letdown spot after sweeping Minnesota, Like, who cares,
1:31:36
Speaker 2: it's Minnesota. So I think Pittsburgh does have their momentum
1:31:39
Speaker 2: back here. Oh yeah, no bullpen usage because neither team
1:31:42
Speaker 2: played yesterday. I don't like either bullpen really, Pittsburgh's is
1:31:46
Speaker 2: okay at sixteenth. Houston's is still a train wreck, even
1:31:50
Speaker 2: though they've improved a little bit recently. They're still ranked
1:31:52
Speaker 2: twenty sixth in WHIP, but they still have the second
1:31:55
Speaker 2: worst bullpen era to the Anaheim Angels. Houston still has
1:32:00
Speaker 2: a very bad bullpen, although we'll see what happens if
1:32:04
Speaker 2: this improvement continues. Both offenses have been good Pittsburgh fifth,
1:32:08
Speaker 2: Houston seventh, and of course based on that, you might think, well,
1:32:11
Speaker 2: it makes sense that this would be an overgame. Maybe
1:32:14
Speaker 2: it does. Bubba Chandler is pitching for Pittsburgh. You know,
1:32:17
Speaker 2: I like Chandler. I think he has a lot of talent.
1:32:20
Speaker 2: I think he has good stuff. But his walk number
1:32:22
Speaker 2: has been unbelievably high. Like if he stopped walking people,
1:32:27
Speaker 2: I think he'd be a really good pitcher. He's got
1:32:29
Speaker 2: a four point eight five VRA one point five to
1:32:31
Speaker 2: two whip. Obviously, that is not good. He's been better
1:32:35
Speaker 2: on the road though, four point oh eight Roady Ram.
1:32:38
Speaker 2: He's showing some signs of improving maybe a bit here.
1:32:42
Speaker 2: Over the past few starts. He had a double digit
1:32:45
Speaker 2: strikeout total in one of them. Walk rate maybe went
1:32:49
Speaker 2: down a little bit there, but still in the month
1:32:50
Speaker 2: of May twenty five to sixteen strikeout walk ratio. That's
1:32:54
Speaker 2: still not gonna cut it. That is way too many
1:32:56
Speaker 2: walks and twenty hits a lot of twenty three innings,
1:32:58
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh in fact lost all five of those games.
1:33:01
Speaker 2: They've lost nine of his last ten starts. That's not good, dude,
1:33:05
Speaker 2: and it's because of the walks. A lot of it
1:33:08
Speaker 2: is because of the walks. He's got a pretty good
1:33:11
Speaker 2: strikeout rate one per inning, well below one hit per inning,
1:33:14
Speaker 2: but the walk rate is unbelievable. He has one of
1:33:17
Speaker 2: the highest walk rates in baseball. You gotta cut that out, man.
1:33:20
Speaker 2: He's got to figure out something and stop being that wild.
1:33:24
Speaker 2: Maybe he will. He's still young, he's twenty three. I
1:33:26
Speaker 2: think we could see a big improvement from him if
1:33:29
Speaker 2: he does fix that problem. But right now it is
1:33:31
Speaker 2: not fixed. But Houston has never faced him before, so
1:33:35
Speaker 2: that's where it's like, well, which way is this gonna go.
1:33:38
Speaker 2: He's not pitching well right now, and the unfamiliarity edge
1:33:41
Speaker 2: has not been that advantageous to him throughout this season,
1:33:44
Speaker 2: of course, because he is facing lineups that haven't seen
1:33:47
Speaker 2: him before in a lot of these games, and they're
1:33:49
Speaker 2: still getting to him or he's getting to himself because
1:33:52
Speaker 2: of the walks. So that's the problem. You have to
1:33:54
Speaker 2: try to gauge is his walk number gonna be better,
1:33:57
Speaker 2: And that's a really hard thing to figure out. So
1:34:00
Speaker 2: I think there's a wide very like a wide variance
1:34:04
Speaker 2: here with Bubba Schandler. He could be excellent, he could
1:34:07
Speaker 2: be horrible, all depending on how wild he is. So
1:34:09
Speaker 2: I don't know what we're gonna get out of him here. Man.
1:34:12
Speaker 2: Mike Burrows is pitching for Houston, and this is interesting
1:34:15
Speaker 2: because he's going up against a team that got rid
1:34:18
Speaker 2: of him. Pittsburgh is where he was for the early
1:34:21
Speaker 2: part of his career the last two seasons. He had
1:34:24
Speaker 2: a full season with Pittsburgh. Last year. He actually pitched
1:34:26
Speaker 2: fairly well for Pittsburgh last year, and he's not doing
1:34:29
Speaker 2: well this year for Houston five point four ERA one
1:34:31
Speaker 2: point four or five whip. But he might get pumped
1:34:34
Speaker 2: up because he's facing the team that got rid of him.
1:34:36
Speaker 2: Just like I said with Harrison and some of these
1:34:38
Speaker 2: other guys, these pitchers might pitch a little bit better
1:34:41
Speaker 2: going up against a team that got rid of them
1:34:43
Speaker 2: because they want to prove themselves, like you know, prove
1:34:47
Speaker 2: that it was a mistake that that team got rid
1:34:49
Speaker 2: of them. So Borrows might have some extra motivation here.
1:34:52
Speaker 2: But unlike Harrison, who I definitely trust because he's been
1:34:55
Speaker 2: pitching great, Burrows has not. Like I said, so he's
1:34:59
Speaker 2: not a very tr worthy pitcher Here's been worse at
1:35:01
Speaker 2: home to six point nine to two ERA. He did
1:35:04
Speaker 2: pitch well in his last game against Texas, six strikeouts,
1:35:08
Speaker 2: one walk, and seven innings, five hits, touring runs alowed.
1:35:11
Speaker 2: That was at Texas, though, where it seems like every
1:35:13
Speaker 2: game is low scoring. Texas doesn't score a lot there.
1:35:17
Speaker 2: But you know, Borrows looks like he is pitching a
1:35:19
Speaker 2: little bit better because he did have a good start
1:35:21
Speaker 2: in Cincinnati on May eighth, which is a hitter friendly ballpark.
1:35:26
Speaker 2: He fell back and he pitched poorly in the next
1:35:28
Speaker 2: outing at home, of course, against Seattle. Then his next
1:35:31
Speaker 2: outing wasn't too bad at Minnesota, though he did still
1:35:34
Speaker 2: have too many walks in that one. He's showing some
1:35:37
Speaker 2: signs of a little bit of improvement here, so I
1:35:39
Speaker 2: will say that he's allowed fewer than one hipper inning
1:35:42
Speaker 2: over the month of May thirty and thirty one to
1:35:45
Speaker 2: two thirds innings, twenty one strikeouts, not a high strike
1:35:47
Speaker 2: out rate, though nine walks isn't really that bad. He's
1:35:50
Speaker 2: not really a strike up pitcher. His strike out rate
1:35:52
Speaker 2: is pretty low on the season. His hit rate is
1:35:54
Speaker 2: too high though. He's allowed over one hit per inning
1:35:57
Speaker 2: by quite a bit. That's not good. On top of
1:35:59
Speaker 2: third teen home runs as well, so he's got to
1:36:02
Speaker 2: get those numbers down a bit. And his walk rate
1:36:04
Speaker 2: hasn't really been that great either, so he's still got
1:36:07
Speaker 2: some problems. Even looks like he is improving a bit. Pittsburgh,
1:36:11
Speaker 2: of course, will be a motivated outing for him, and
1:36:14
Speaker 2: only Ozona has ever faced him before and he's over
1:36:17
Speaker 2: one against him, so Burrows does have the unfamiliarity against
1:36:20
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh too, even though they know who he is because
1:36:22
Speaker 2: he was on their team, but they've never faced him
1:36:25
Speaker 2: in a real game environment. So I don't think I
1:36:28
Speaker 2: want an over here because if there is a chance
1:36:31
Speaker 2: both starting pitchers actually do well here, the money is
1:36:34
Speaker 2: backing Pittsburgh for what that's worth eighty two percent of
1:36:37
Speaker 2: tickets fifty nine percent of the cash on Houston at
1:36:40
Speaker 2: around a minus one ten price here, So the money
1:36:43
Speaker 2: is fading Houston and coming in on the Bobba Chandler
1:36:46
Speaker 2: side here. Again. I mean I think there's kind of
1:36:49
Speaker 2: a wide variance for both pictures in this one totals
1:36:52
Speaker 2: at nine. I mean, if you wanted to go over,
1:36:55
Speaker 2: I mean basically, you might still get this thing over
1:36:58
Speaker 2: if like one of the two pictures and then you
1:37:00
Speaker 2: have a bad Houston bullpen. Pittsburgh's bullpen isn't that great,
1:37:03
Speaker 2: but the offenses may have cooled off a bit because
1:37:06
Speaker 2: they rested yesterday. You know, the bullpens have everybody at
1:37:10
Speaker 2: their disposal today. So I don't want to do it.
1:37:12
Speaker 2: But those are my thoughts in that game. I don't
1:37:14
Speaker 2: really have any thoughts on that game that are worthwhile.
1:37:18
Speaker 2: Colorado and Anaheim, these two teams played yesterday. I thought
1:37:22
Speaker 2: it would be a high scoring game, and it was.
1:37:24
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe I should have added the over in
1:37:26
Speaker 2: that game, but well, I was correct. The way that
1:37:27
Speaker 2: I would have played that was Anaheim over their team total,
1:37:30
Speaker 2: and they got way over their team total. Despite losing
1:37:33
Speaker 2: the game nine to eight, they still went over their
1:37:35
Speaker 2: own team total. There. I just thought Soriano would potentially
1:37:38
Speaker 2: pitch better in that game, but he's just bad at home, dude,
1:37:42
Speaker 2: So that game it wasn't over. I was correct about that,
1:37:44
Speaker 2: but didn't make the cut for me. Is this game
1:37:48
Speaker 2: also going to be an over I don't know. I mean,
1:37:51
Speaker 2: I don't like it as much as yesterday's. Really, Colorado
1:37:54
Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday and Anaheim used five. It
1:37:59
Speaker 2: looks like although a suitor for only three pitches though,
1:38:02
Speaker 2: so he'd be available again. These bullpens are both bad.
1:38:05
Speaker 2: Though Anaheim's ranked twenty ninth, you could definitely make the
1:38:08
Speaker 2: argument they're the worst bullpen in baseball though they have
1:38:11
Speaker 2: the worst RA They're bad, not much better as Colorado
1:38:16
Speaker 2: at twenty fifth. And then the offenses. Colorado is seventeenth
1:38:21
Speaker 2: and the Angels are eighteenth, So these offenses have started
1:38:23
Speaker 2: to come around again a bit recently. These starting pitchers,
1:38:27
Speaker 2: though I don't really want to go over with this
1:38:29
Speaker 2: particular starting pitching matchup. Sugano is pitching for the Rockies here,
1:38:34
Speaker 2: Tomo Yuki Sugano. He's been okay. I mean, the advanced
1:38:37
Speaker 2: analytics guys hate this guy because he's kind of just
1:38:40
Speaker 2: a junk pitcher. He's he's come over to the majors
1:38:44
Speaker 2: at kind of an old age from a pitching professionally
1:38:46
Speaker 2: in Japan for a long time. But the one thing
1:38:48
Speaker 2: about it is. I don't think he's intimidated pitching in
1:38:50
Speaker 2: the majors, you know, because he's been a professional pitcher
1:38:53
Speaker 2: for so long. His numbers is still all right, especially
1:38:56
Speaker 2: given the fact that he's pitching in coursefield. He's got
1:38:59
Speaker 2: a four point one point two to five Whip three
1:39:04
Speaker 2: point six to two Roady Ray, so he pitches better
1:39:06
Speaker 2: away from course field. Hasn't exactly been great recently, but
1:39:10
Speaker 2: maybe not awful really, just his strikeout rate is really low.
1:39:15
Speaker 2: He went twenty six to two thirds innings in the
1:39:16
Speaker 2: month of May, did allow too many hits twenty nine hits,
1:39:19
Speaker 2: but some of that came in his most recent outing
1:39:22
Speaker 2: against the Dodgers, where he did not go five innings
1:39:24
Speaker 2: in that one. Still held him to three ear in
1:39:27
Speaker 2: runs before two thirds innings though, which wasn't that bad.
1:39:30
Speaker 2: Has ten strikeouts in the month of May, which is
1:39:32
Speaker 2: really low though, and seven walks isn't that bad. But
1:39:35
Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is just really low. He doesn't strike
1:39:38
Speaker 2: guys out, that's the case over the course of the season,
1:39:40
Speaker 2: but his hit rate is reasonable below one per inning,
1:39:43
Speaker 2: and his walk rate is pretty reasonable as well, pretty low.
1:39:46
Speaker 2: He's a lot of decent amount of home runs though
1:39:49
Speaker 2: eleven home runs. That's not great, but overall he's not
1:39:52
Speaker 2: that bad of a pitcher in my opinion. These guys
1:39:55
Speaker 2: that throw junk tend to throw off the advanced analytics guys.
1:39:58
Speaker 2: I think his numbers a against the Angels. They have
1:40:01
Speaker 2: not seen a lot of them. They only have five
1:40:02
Speaker 2: hitters who have faced him nineteen of bats two to eleven,
1:40:05
Speaker 2: batting average allowed, six eighty seven OPS, six strikeouts, two walks.
1:40:10
Speaker 2: Trout does have a home run off him, but other
1:40:12
Speaker 2: than that, not a lot of damage here. That's the
1:40:14
Speaker 2: only extra base hit. So generally he's actually pitched okay
1:40:18
Speaker 2: against the anti hitters that have faced him. He has
1:40:20
Speaker 2: some unfamiliarity here too, so Sugana might not pitch that
1:40:24
Speaker 2: bad here. Sugano, I should say. Grayson Rodriguez is pitching
1:40:29
Speaker 2: for the Angels. I know his numbers are bad seven
1:40:31
Speaker 2: point five to three ERA, one point six to seven with,
1:40:35
Speaker 2: but it's a very small sample size. He's trying to
1:40:37
Speaker 2: come back from an injury that kept him out of
1:40:41
Speaker 2: the major leagues for an entire season. Now, if you
1:40:44
Speaker 2: look at his career, he was actually good before that happened.
1:40:48
Speaker 2: Like he started pitching pretty well with Baltimore in twenty
1:40:50
Speaker 2: twenty four, and he's showing signs of improvement here. He's
1:40:53
Speaker 2: improved with every start this season. I mean, he got
1:40:56
Speaker 2: a bad draw on his first start, coming back from
1:40:59
Speaker 2: over a year away with an injury. He had to
1:41:01
Speaker 2: face the Dodgers. I mean, that's that is not an
1:41:04
Speaker 2: easy thing to do, and they lit him up. Yeah,
1:41:07
Speaker 2: he got somewhat unlucky as well in that outing, I
1:41:09
Speaker 2: would say, but then he pitched a little bit better
1:41:11
Speaker 2: against Texas the next time out, and then he had
1:41:13
Speaker 2: his best start against Detroit. And I know those are
1:41:16
Speaker 2: not powerful offenses. Detroit's offense has been awful, but we
1:41:19
Speaker 2: do see improvement from starting to start here from g Rod.
1:41:23
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's his nickname or not, but
1:41:24
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make it so. Maybe he's finding the G
1:41:29
Speaker 2: spot again and getting better here. But I think based
1:41:32
Speaker 2: on what we see on him in his short career,
1:41:34
Speaker 2: I think he's definitely better than what his numbers look like.
1:41:37
Speaker 2: This season, there's no question about that. He's trending in
1:41:40
Speaker 2: the right direction. He held Detroit to one and run
1:41:42
Speaker 2: in five innings on two hits, two walks, five strikeouts.
1:41:46
Speaker 2: You want to see his walk rate go down. Though
1:41:47
Speaker 2: he's got fourteen to third innings so far, eight walks,
1:41:50
Speaker 2: fourteen strikeouts. The strikeout rate is good, the walk rate
1:41:54
Speaker 2: not good, and sixteen hits isn't very good either, But
1:41:57
Speaker 2: again he is improving with each star here and Colorado
1:42:01
Speaker 2: only as three hitters have ever faced him, and they're
1:42:03
Speaker 2: zero for six offen with three strikeouts, two walks. So
1:42:07
Speaker 2: I actually think both pitchers could actually pitch okay here.
1:42:11
Speaker 2: And you know, in fact, I might even actually lean
1:42:13
Speaker 2: that way. I know it sounds insane, but I might
1:42:15
Speaker 2: actually lean towards the first five under in this game.
1:42:18
Speaker 2: I wouldn't go full game on it, obviously, these bullpens
1:42:21
Speaker 2: are just horrendous. The full game totals eight and a half,
1:42:25
Speaker 2: close to nine here, But I think first five innings
1:42:27
Speaker 2: under makes some sense here. The money is back in Colorado,
1:42:31
Speaker 2: by the way, sixty nine percent of tickets eighty six
1:42:33
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. Anaheim's around minus one
1:42:37
Speaker 2: fifty or so here. Rodriguez getting some respect in the market,
1:42:41
Speaker 2: or I think really it's more so that Colorado just
1:42:43
Speaker 2: gets constantly disrespected in the market. I think that might
1:42:46
Speaker 2: be why some of the money's hitting Colorado here, because
1:42:48
Speaker 2: maybe Sugano just shouldn't be that big of an underdog,
1:42:52
Speaker 2: or or maybe just Colorado generally shouldn't be especially against
1:42:56
Speaker 2: an Anaheim team that really probably doesn't deserve to be
1:42:58
Speaker 2: favored like that because they're also not a good team.
1:43:01
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going, man a huge, huge amount
1:43:05
Speaker 2: of baseball here. It's taking longer than usual. Dodgers at Arizona.
1:43:09
Speaker 2: Arizona got the win yesterday despite being in a return
1:43:12
Speaker 2: home spot. They overcame that potential distraction still got the
1:43:16
Speaker 2: win four to one yesterday and got a good outing
1:43:19
Speaker 2: out of e Rod. I guess yesterday Arizona used three
1:43:22
Speaker 2: relief pitchers. Yesterday Dodgers used two a couple of I
1:43:27
Speaker 2: think the better relievers came out because it was kind
1:43:29
Speaker 2: of a closer game. Both bullpens have been good. Dodgers
1:43:32
Speaker 2: are ranked two, Diamondbacks are ranked three, although their era
1:43:35
Speaker 2: is still not terrific. But I again, I'm having to
1:43:38
Speaker 2: admit that the whip is a good indicator because Arizona's
1:43:41
Speaker 2: bullpen is showing up and pitching better than I really
1:43:44
Speaker 2: ever thought they were. Because they started the season with
1:43:46
Speaker 2: no Lefti's in the bullpen at all. Dodgers still have
1:43:50
Speaker 2: the better bullpen though, and I don't think Arizona is
1:43:52
Speaker 2: actually the third best bullpen, but they may be somewhere,
1:43:55
Speaker 2: you know, around like maybe a top ten bullpen. Dodgers
1:44:00
Speaker 2: number one in offense, as we probably know, Diamondback's not
1:44:04
Speaker 2: bad at fourteenth, so both teams can hit. This pitching
1:44:08
Speaker 2: matchup is pretty interesting. Eric Lauer is pitching for the
1:44:11
Speaker 2: Dodgers here. He was really struggling with Toronto and they
1:44:16
Speaker 2: cut him. Even though he was pretty good for Toronto
1:44:18
Speaker 2: last year, wasn't good this year, so they cut him
1:44:21
Speaker 2: and the Dodgers decided to pick him up, and he
1:44:24
Speaker 2: actually pitched well in his first start with the Dodgers.
1:44:26
Speaker 2: Maybe a change of scenery good for him. He's got
1:44:29
Speaker 2: a five point nine to five ERA one point three
1:44:31
Speaker 2: to nine whip, most of that with Toronto. This year
1:44:34
Speaker 2: he's been basically the same home and away. It doesn't
1:44:36
Speaker 2: really matter, though his road ERA is above six, which
1:44:40
Speaker 2: isn't good. He's made one start, like I said, with
1:44:42
Speaker 2: the Dodgers so far. He got an easy draw though
1:44:45
Speaker 2: at home against Colorado. They're not a good offense on
1:44:48
Speaker 2: the road. Typically he went six innings, allowed, one on
1:44:50
Speaker 2: and run on, four hits, four strikeouts, one walk. But
1:44:53
Speaker 2: it is a good sign that he pitched well in
1:44:56
Speaker 2: that game. So maybe being with the Dodgers, maybe he's
1:44:59
Speaker 2: excited because he's on a contending team, you know what
1:45:01
Speaker 2: I mean. Like, maybe that's what you know, gets him
1:45:04
Speaker 2: up for these games, gets him hard for these games,
1:45:07
Speaker 2: you know what I mean? Like last year Toronto was
1:45:09
Speaker 2: a contender, this year not so much. So maybe now
1:45:12
Speaker 2: that he's with another contending team, maybe that's getting him excited. Man.
1:45:16
Speaker 2: So even though my lean in this game is gonna
1:45:19
Speaker 2: be to fade the Dodgers here, I don't know if
1:45:21
Speaker 2: I quite want to do it, because we still don't
1:45:22
Speaker 2: really know what Lower with the Dodgers really looks like.
1:45:25
Speaker 2: He might actually be good, but he does not have
1:45:28
Speaker 2: great numbers against the Diamondbacks and seventy nine career at
1:45:31
Speaker 2: bats big sample here two seventy eight average, nine zero
1:45:35
Speaker 2: three ops allowed, fourteen to seven strikeout walk ratio. Five
1:45:39
Speaker 2: of those walks are arnatto though, but still not good
1:45:41
Speaker 2: numbers here for Lower. He's going up against Garrett's favorite pitcher,
1:45:47
Speaker 2: Michael Saraka, who is having a pretty good season with
1:45:50
Speaker 2: the d Backs three point two five ERA, one point
1:45:53
Speaker 2: two whip. He's been really good at home, even though
1:45:56
Speaker 2: it's a hitter friendly ballpark here at home one point
1:45:59
Speaker 2: five to seven at home. I don't know what it
1:46:01
Speaker 2: is with him, but he pitches really well at home.
1:46:04
Speaker 2: He's been pretty good recently as well. The month of
1:46:07
Speaker 2: May twenty four to five strike out walk ratio, twenty
1:46:10
Speaker 2: four hits allout in thirty to third innings in a
1:46:12
Speaker 2: one point seven to eighty r race. So he's in
1:46:14
Speaker 2: good form right now. He allowed two or fewer runs
1:46:17
Speaker 2: in all those outings, and in fact, he's only allowed
1:46:19
Speaker 2: more than that twice this season. He did actually pitch
1:46:22
Speaker 2: against Toronto on April seventeenth here in Arizona. Oh sorry,
1:46:27
Speaker 2: that was Toronto. What am I saying? Because lower used
1:46:29
Speaker 2: to be on Toronto? My mind is all over the place.
1:46:31
Speaker 2: Never mind, he needs to face the Dodgers here. He
1:46:35
Speaker 2: has not faced them, but he has good numbers against
1:46:37
Speaker 2: the Dodgers, believe it or not. Twenty nine at bats
1:46:39
Speaker 2: against them, one seventy two average, allowed five to forty
1:46:43
Speaker 2: ops too many walks though nine strike got seven walks,
1:46:47
Speaker 2: only one extra base hit though a double from rushing,
1:46:51
Speaker 2: and overall his numbers are good this season. Overall strike
1:46:54
Speaker 2: got rate right around one per inning, hit rate below
1:46:56
Speaker 2: one per inning. Walk rate is good as well. So
1:46:59
Speaker 2: he's a pretty solid pitcher, I will say, and he
1:47:02
Speaker 2: matches up pretty well. So I do like Arizona in
1:47:04
Speaker 2: this game. I think the bullpens are a little bit
1:47:07
Speaker 2: of a washed too. Him mean, if you wanted to
1:47:09
Speaker 2: go first five, that still makes sense, because maybe you
1:47:12
Speaker 2: can make the argument the Dodgers because they do still
1:47:14
Speaker 2: have a slight bullpen edge here, and maybe you still
1:47:17
Speaker 2: want to go first five of Arizona here. Money's backing
1:47:20
Speaker 2: the Dodgers though, seventy seven percent of tickets eighty nine
1:47:23
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Dodgers. They are, of
1:47:25
Speaker 2: course favored because they're the Dodgers minus won twenty or
1:47:29
Speaker 2: so here, But did they really deserve to be a
1:47:31
Speaker 2: road favorite against a pretty capable Arizona team with lour
1:47:35
Speaker 2: as their starting pitcher who's still kind of unproven whether
1:47:39
Speaker 2: or not he's returned to form here, you know, So
1:47:41
Speaker 2: I don't think the Dodgers really deserve that kind of pricing.
1:47:45
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I would lean Arizona, and that
1:47:48
Speaker 2: one is the slight underdog there. Again, maybe first five
1:47:51
Speaker 2: is a little bit of the better way to go.
1:47:53
Speaker 2: Then we have Mets at Seattle. It was a close
1:47:56
Speaker 2: game yesterday. I leaned Seattle in the game, and Seattle
1:47:58
Speaker 2: got it done in extra innings and Naylor hit a
1:48:03
Speaker 2: home run but then left the game with back spasm.
1:48:05
Speaker 2: So I have no idea if he's gonna be in
1:48:07
Speaker 2: the lineup or not here. He is one of the
1:48:10
Speaker 2: mariners better hitters, of course, but with or without him,
1:48:13
Speaker 2: I don't think it changes a handicap that much. Mariners
1:48:16
Speaker 2: are on a nice win streak here. They won I
1:48:18
Speaker 2: think seven games in a row now or something. They
1:48:21
Speaker 2: were able to get the win yesterday. I think they
1:48:23
Speaker 2: are generally the better team here. Not going out on
1:48:26
Speaker 2: a limb saying that, because the Mets have been playing
1:48:28
Speaker 2: really poorly this season, but Seattle was playing poorly as
1:48:32
Speaker 2: well for a lot of the season. The Mets used
1:48:34
Speaker 2: a lot of relief pitchers yesterday because it was a
1:48:37
Speaker 2: bullpen game for them yesterday. They used five relief pitchers yesterday,
1:48:41
Speaker 2: including I think Warren was their open or Austin Warren Seattle,
1:48:46
Speaker 2: I think might have the slightly better bullpen. They did
1:48:48
Speaker 2: use four relief pitchers though, because remember it was an
1:48:50
Speaker 2: extra inning game. It was a close game, so a
1:48:52
Speaker 2: lot of guys had to come out of the bullpens.
1:48:54
Speaker 2: The Mets are ranked seventh in bullpen here. They are good.
1:48:57
Speaker 2: Their ERA is pretty good. The Mariners have one of
1:49:00
Speaker 2: the best eras in baseball, though they're thirteenth because their
1:49:03
Speaker 2: whip isn't as good. But I like both bullpens. I
1:49:07
Speaker 2: think Seattle's willpens a little bit better in my opinion,
1:49:09
Speaker 2: and sets up a little bit better based on the
1:49:11
Speaker 2: rest here, Seattle is definitely the better offense, even without
1:49:14
Speaker 2: Nail or Seattle's twelfth. Offensively, the Mets are dead last.
1:49:18
Speaker 2: What else is new? Thirtieth Mets are going with Jonah
1:49:23
Speaker 2: Thong starting this game. Really interesting. Man, he's still a
1:49:27
Speaker 2: young guy. I mean, it is possible that he starts
1:49:30
Speaker 2: doing something here. But he did make five starts with
1:49:33
Speaker 2: the Mets last year and things didn't go great. He
1:49:35
Speaker 2: had a seven point seven to one RRA and one
1:49:37
Speaker 2: point seven to seven whip, obviously not good. He did
1:49:41
Speaker 2: have one over one strike up per inning, though, which
1:49:44
Speaker 2: was good, but he allowed a lot of hits. His
1:49:46
Speaker 2: walk rate wasn't great, but his hit rate was also bad,
1:49:49
Speaker 2: so he struggled a bit in various ways. Maybe he's
1:49:52
Speaker 2: pitching a little bit better here. He's only made relief
1:49:54
Speaker 2: appearances so far this season, but he's got a zero
1:49:58
Speaker 2: r RA and a one point two whips so far. However,
1:50:01
Speaker 2: I would settle down a little bit because it was
1:50:03
Speaker 2: relief appearances against Miami and Cincinnati. At Miami and at
1:50:07
Speaker 2: home against Cincinnati, so he was in the better pitcher
1:50:11
Speaker 2: park in those two games as well. And he has
1:50:14
Speaker 2: five walks and three strikeouts so far. So he's walking
1:50:16
Speaker 2: almost one guy an inning. That's not good. Three hits
1:50:19
Speaker 2: a lot in sixty two thirds innings is fine. And
1:50:21
Speaker 2: Noah and Ron's cool. But I don't really trust Tong
1:50:24
Speaker 2: right now. He's a young pitcher. He does have talent,
1:50:27
Speaker 2: I know, but right now I don't really consider him
1:50:30
Speaker 2: to be trustworthy. No idea what you're gonna get out
1:50:32
Speaker 2: of him here. The Mariners haven't seen him before, though,
1:50:35
Speaker 2: so maybe he has a little bit of an advantage here.
1:50:37
Speaker 2: He's only twenty two years old, so he might start
1:50:39
Speaker 2: pitching better, but I don't want to bank on it.
1:50:41
Speaker 2: Here Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle. He's obviously the
1:50:45
Speaker 2: more established pitcher. Three point six p ninety R one
1:50:48
Speaker 2: point one point one whip good stuff from Gilbert, but shockingly,
1:50:53
Speaker 2: he's been way worse at home, which makes no sense,
1:50:55
Speaker 2: as usually every Seattle pitcher does. I feel like I'm
1:50:58
Speaker 2: a broken record, but typically Seattle all their pitchers pitch
1:51:01
Speaker 2: better at home because it's a more pitcher friendly park.
1:51:04
Speaker 2: But he's got a five point six to seven home
1:51:07
Speaker 2: ra and more innings pitched at home, and he's allowed
1:51:10
Speaker 2: ten times as many home runs at home this year
1:51:13
Speaker 2: in eleven more innings pitch as well, But still that's ridiculous.
1:51:17
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with him at home.
1:51:19
Speaker 2: Maybe he'll turn it around, because he's definitely pitching better recently.
1:51:22
Speaker 2: He's had three shutout appearances in his last four outings,
1:51:25
Speaker 2: but all of them are on the road, and his
1:51:27
Speaker 2: most recent home start he got not lit up, really,
1:51:30
Speaker 2: but he did allow a lot of runs to San
1:51:32
Speaker 2: Diego seven earned runs in that outing, three home runs,
1:51:36
Speaker 2: but he did all them to five hits, two walks,
1:51:39
Speaker 2: so he got pretty unlucky in that outing five strikeouts.
1:51:42
Speaker 2: But his road starts have been excellent recently, including a
1:51:45
Speaker 2: one hit, six inning shutout against the White Sox. He
1:51:48
Speaker 2: had a good start, shutout start on the road at
1:51:51
Speaker 2: the A's not easy to do either of those things, man,
1:51:54
Speaker 2: So I think Gilbert is good. But I just don't
1:51:56
Speaker 2: know what's going on with him at home right now.
1:51:58
Speaker 2: That is a little bit of a concern. But he's
1:52:00
Speaker 2: been good against the Mets in a huge sample eighty
1:52:03
Speaker 2: seven at bats because their former American League players all
1:52:08
Speaker 2: have a lot of at bats against him. Bishett Soto
1:52:10
Speaker 2: and especially Semion, who was in his division, all have
1:52:14
Speaker 2: a lot of at bats against them, but none of
1:52:16
Speaker 2: them have hit him well. He's got twenty eight strikeouts,
1:52:18
Speaker 2: three walks against them, one twenty six average allowed, three
1:52:22
Speaker 2: thirty nine ops. Semion does have a home run off him,
1:52:25
Speaker 2: but he's five for thirty eight against them and with
1:52:28
Speaker 2: two doubles. So Gilbert does match up well here. I
1:52:31
Speaker 2: know he hasn't been pitching well at home, but I
1:52:33
Speaker 2: kind of have a tendency to lean towards him pitching
1:52:35
Speaker 2: well here. The Mets, I mean they you know, their
1:52:39
Speaker 2: offense typically has not taken advantage of most pitchers this year.
1:52:45
Speaker 2: It actually looks like the Mets are undecided here right
1:52:47
Speaker 2: now too, so it might be like a bullpen game
1:52:50
Speaker 2: from the Mets here, and maybe Tong will come in
1:52:52
Speaker 2: after an opener or something. I don't know what they're doing.
1:52:55
Speaker 2: I'd probably prefer Seattle again, though they're around minus one
1:52:58
Speaker 2: fifty or so. We don't really see where the money's
1:53:00
Speaker 2: coming in yet. Maybe it's a little bit too much
1:53:02
Speaker 2: of a price to lay there. It's a low total
1:53:04
Speaker 2: seven and a half juice to the under. I don't
1:53:08
Speaker 2: know if I would trust an under, though, given what's
1:53:10
Speaker 2: going on with the Mets, and given them both bullpens
1:53:12
Speaker 2: are a little bit unrested here, I think a Seattle,
1:53:15
Speaker 2: you know, money line play maybe might make more sense
1:53:18
Speaker 2: there at below minus one fifty. All right, two hours.
1:53:21
Speaker 2: Just for baseball, we'll hit WNBA. We're in the WNBA
1:53:26
Speaker 2: Commissioner's Cup because guess what they do the same thing
1:53:29
Speaker 2: as the NBA. They have a Commissioner's Cup, which is
1:53:32
Speaker 2: really dumb. Whatever. I kind of treat them like regular
1:53:35
Speaker 2: season games anyway, though, maybe you know, the lesser teams,
1:53:40
Speaker 2: maybe the teams that know they're not gonna win the
1:53:41
Speaker 2: championship to have a little bit of a motivational edge
1:53:44
Speaker 2: in some of these games. But it's just like the
1:53:46
Speaker 2: NBA Cup and the home team is just the home
1:53:49
Speaker 2: team here, so like you know, these games are at
1:53:51
Speaker 2: the site of whoever the home team is. They're almost
1:53:54
Speaker 2: like regular season games. We have at Lanta hosting Connecticut.
1:53:57
Speaker 2: This is a big mismatch. At Lanta is one of
1:53:59
Speaker 2: the best teams in the league. Connecticut is awful. Atlanta
1:54:03
Speaker 2: is returning home from the road. They're only on the
1:54:05
Speaker 2: road for two games, but they were still away for
1:54:07
Speaker 2: a week or so against Minnesota and then Portland. Not
1:54:11
Speaker 2: a big deal beating Portland, but Minnesota is a big game.
1:54:14
Speaker 2: Now they're returning home from that, and they do have
1:54:16
Speaker 2: Indiana on deck, which may be a bigger game because
1:54:18
Speaker 2: it is still Caitlan Clark, even though I think their
1:54:21
Speaker 2: coach is an idiot and not managing the player as
1:54:23
Speaker 2: well and mismanaging the amount of talent. Indiana should have
1:54:26
Speaker 2: a way better record than they do based on the
1:54:28
Speaker 2: amount of talent, and the people that are blaming Caitlin
1:54:31
Speaker 2: Clark are stupid. Their coach is obviously an idiot, but anyway,
1:54:35
Speaker 2: Atlanta might be looking ahead to that plus they're in
1:54:37
Speaker 2: a return home spot. I would slightly lean to Connecticut here,
1:54:41
Speaker 2: but obviously it's not a strong opinion for me. Connecticut
1:54:44
Speaker 2: did just break a three game losing streak, so maybe
1:54:46
Speaker 2: they'll have a little bit of momentum from that. It
1:54:48
Speaker 2: was a return home spot too, which is kind of crazy.
1:54:51
Speaker 2: They beat La, who's kind of a mediocre team. Now
1:54:54
Speaker 2: they're starting another road trip. They may be focused here
1:54:56
Speaker 2: for that staying in the Eastern time zone. Don't have
1:55:00
Speaker 2: much on the game, but Atlanta's like a thirteen and
1:55:02
Speaker 2: a half fourteen point favorite here. It's a low total
1:55:06
Speaker 2: as well, Like all the totals today except for the
1:55:08
Speaker 2: Vegas LA game, are all pretty low, so the low
1:55:11
Speaker 2: total kind of indicates that the points are I mean,
1:55:13
Speaker 2: the low total does indicate the points are worth more.
1:55:17
Speaker 2: So it makes a little bit more sense to take
1:55:18
Speaker 2: an underdog of a huge magnitude with a low total
1:55:22
Speaker 2: like that. So Connecticut plus the points makes the most
1:55:25
Speaker 2: sense to me. In that game, WNBA started, I don't know,
1:55:32
Speaker 2: like a week into May. Maybe I have no idea,
1:55:37
Speaker 2: but this is the Commissioner's Cup, you know. The Cup
1:55:39
Speaker 2: happens in the middle of the rego season. It's it
1:55:42
Speaker 2: has nothing to do with the championship, but the WNBA
1:55:45
Speaker 2: season is still short. It's like a couple of months
1:55:49
Speaker 2: Chicago at Washington is the next game, or maybe a
1:55:53
Speaker 2: few months. I forget when the end of the season is.
1:55:56
Speaker 2: It's towards the end of the summer. Though. Washington lost
1:56:00
Speaker 2: at home to LA and their last outing just saw
1:56:03
Speaker 2: some some very some very attractive ladies here on the
1:56:06
Speaker 2: Minnesota team there, which I think they're the best team
1:56:09
Speaker 2: in the league. Probably when they get call here back.
1:56:12
Speaker 2: Geez man, oh man, uh one, why why do we
1:56:16
Speaker 2: not watch the WNBA man such attractive ladies they have here.
1:56:22
Speaker 2: Washington just lost at home to LA here it was
1:56:27
Speaker 2: in a return home spots, you know, that's in negative spots.
1:56:31
Speaker 2: So maybe they do bounce back here for a game
1:56:33
Speaker 2: against Chicago. Of course, a team by the way, like Connecticut,
1:56:36
Speaker 2: like Washington, they probably kind of know they're not going
1:56:39
Speaker 2: anywhere this year, especially Connecticut, so they might get a
1:56:41
Speaker 2: little bit extra up for these cup games. I think
1:56:44
Speaker 2: Chicago currently would not be a playoff team either though
1:56:47
Speaker 2: here Chicago is coming in off. Yeah, four straight losses,
1:56:52
Speaker 2: including getting annihilated by Minnesota. I think They've had a
1:56:55
Speaker 2: somewhat difficult schedule so far, though, yeah, kind of. They
1:56:58
Speaker 2: faced Minnesota three times already and beat them once. That's
1:57:02
Speaker 2: not horrible. So they're going out on the road for
1:57:04
Speaker 2: a game off of, you know, a blowout home loss
1:57:07
Speaker 2: to a pretty good Minnesota team. It looks like both
1:57:10
Speaker 2: teams should have focus in this game. The line has
1:57:13
Speaker 2: flipped to Chicago being a favorite here one and a
1:57:15
Speaker 2: half two, they're the better team. I guess I would
1:57:19
Speaker 2: lean towards Chicago in that game because they think both
1:57:21
Speaker 2: teams might have motivation in that one. I don't know, man,
1:57:24
Speaker 2: Chicago's three and one on the road, by the way,
1:57:26
Speaker 2: Washington own two at home, So the home road splits
1:57:29
Speaker 2: look good for Chicago there, and the public public betters
1:57:33
Speaker 2: might look at say, oh, but Chicago's three and five.
1:57:35
Speaker 2: Why would I lay a favorite price with them on
1:57:37
Speaker 2: the road against a three and four team? Right, So
1:57:39
Speaker 2: it's a little bit misleading. The records are a little
1:57:43
Speaker 2: bit misleading. The oddsmakers are talent in Chicago is the
1:57:45
Speaker 2: better team there. Portland at Golden State should be a
1:57:49
Speaker 2: bit of a mismatch here. Portland has definitely exceeded expectations
1:57:53
Speaker 2: though both teams in fact have the same record or
1:57:56
Speaker 2: no way, Golden State's five and three Portland six and four.
1:57:59
Speaker 2: But you know, the odds makers are gonna look or
1:58:01
Speaker 2: see the No, the recreational betters are gonna look at
1:58:05
Speaker 2: this and see Golden State's an eight and a half
1:58:07
Speaker 2: point favorite and want to take the underdog here, right
1:58:10
Speaker 2: because why would you know, why would the a team
1:58:13
Speaker 2: that has a similar record be laying that many points? Right? Well,
1:58:16
Speaker 2: the odds makers are telling you Golden State's the significantly
1:58:19
Speaker 2: better team than Portland, That's why. Now do I want
1:58:22
Speaker 2: Golden State off a tough game against Vegas? Not really.
1:58:26
Speaker 2: I mean they lost by double digits and the game
1:58:28
Speaker 2: was kind of over before it was over, so it
1:58:31
Speaker 2: wasn't really that close. So maybe they aren't a bounced
1:58:33
Speaker 2: back spot here. But I don't really want Golden State here.
1:58:37
Speaker 2: Portland is coming in off an upset win though they
1:58:39
Speaker 2: just beat Indiana. They blew Indiana out. That was a
1:58:43
Speaker 2: huge win for Portland. I believe they were a double
1:58:46
Speaker 2: Were they a double digit dog here? Yeah? They were
1:58:48
Speaker 2: an eleven and a half point underdog here. So that
1:58:50
Speaker 2: was a big win for Portland against a just discombobulated
1:58:55
Speaker 2: Indiana team here. Indiana just was horrible in the game
1:58:59
Speaker 2: shooting wise. You know, they took fewer shots, which does
1:59:04
Speaker 2: worrying me a little bit because they went to the
1:59:06
Speaker 2: line a ton. So that's kind of the problem I
1:59:07
Speaker 2: would have where it looks like there are some outliers
1:59:10
Speaker 2: here where Portland is gonna regress because they shot fifty
1:59:12
Speaker 2: one percent from the field thirty nine percent from three
1:59:15
Speaker 2: versus Indiana shooting forty one percent and twenty three percent, respectively.
1:59:21
Speaker 2: But the rebound battle was really close, and Indiana had
1:59:25
Speaker 2: twelve more points from the free throw line and still
1:59:28
Speaker 2: lost by that much. So that's not a good sign
1:59:31
Speaker 2: really for Indiana, and it kind of takes away from
1:59:34
Speaker 2: the regression points for Portland a little bit here. But
1:59:36
Speaker 2: still Portland is coming up that big upset, might be
1:59:40
Speaker 2: riding high. However, this is a Cup game against a
1:59:43
Speaker 2: team they know is good against Golden State, so I
1:59:44
Speaker 2: think Portland still might have a little bit of motivation
1:59:47
Speaker 2: here as well. So I'm not gonna touch the game,
1:59:49
Speaker 2: but I think because the public is probably gonna see, oh,
1:59:51
Speaker 2: Portland just killed Caitlin Clark. They're getting eight and a
1:59:54
Speaker 2: half points here, like, how could you possibly lay points
1:59:57
Speaker 2: with a close to five hundred Golden State team? You know,
2:00:01
Speaker 2: all of that has been leaning Golden State. Here, I
2:00:03
Speaker 2: would lay the points with Golden State. They're around eight
2:00:06
Speaker 2: and a half nine here. Now if I was gonna
2:00:09
Speaker 2: play that game, I would lay the points there, all right,
2:00:12
Speaker 2: And then we have Vegas in LA. This is my
2:00:14
Speaker 2: strongest opinion out of all these games, and I've had
2:00:18
Speaker 2: a good read on this series. Right because we had
2:00:22
Speaker 2: LA's first game of the season, I said, play Vegas.
2:00:26
Speaker 2: Vegas I think was only about a two point road
2:00:28
Speaker 2: favorite in that game, which is gonna come into what
2:00:30
Speaker 2: I think about this game here. Vegas easily covered that number,
2:00:34
Speaker 2: but if you dig into that box where it was
2:00:36
Speaker 2: a misleading result, which of course then led me to
2:00:39
Speaker 2: tell you to take Vegas or excuse you, take LA
2:00:43
Speaker 2: in the next game. So the reason why I liked
2:00:45
Speaker 2: Vegas in the first game was because Vegas had already
2:00:47
Speaker 2: played a game they got blown out, and that was
2:00:50
Speaker 2: another game I gave it a play on. Vegas got
2:00:52
Speaker 2: blown out in their home open, or their first game
2:00:55
Speaker 2: of the season, their ring ceremony against the team that
2:00:58
Speaker 2: they beat in the finals. So it was a huge
2:01:01
Speaker 2: revenge game for Phoenix and Vegas had a horrible game.
2:01:04
Speaker 2: So I said, take Vegas in the next game, because
2:01:07
Speaker 2: they already have a game under the belt, they already
2:01:09
Speaker 2: are used to playing. LA hadn't played since, like the
2:01:12
Speaker 2: preseason had been off for a while, so I liked
2:01:15
Speaker 2: that Vegas easily got the win for us, but again
2:01:18
Speaker 2: it was misleading. So then the next time we had
2:01:21
Speaker 2: these teams matching up, Vegas, I think it was returning
2:01:23
Speaker 2: home from a road trip. They'd had that misleading result
2:01:26
Speaker 2: against La, so I said, take La plus the points
2:01:29
Speaker 2: and they I think they were about a nine and
2:01:31
Speaker 2: a half point underdog in that game, and what happened.
2:01:34
Speaker 2: Yet LA got the outright win in that game. The
2:01:38
Speaker 2: fact that Vegas was a nine and a half point
2:01:39
Speaker 2: favorite in that game made no sense to me, because
2:01:41
Speaker 2: they were only a two point favorite in that vers game.
2:01:43
Speaker 2: Though I'm wondering if maybe there was like an injury
2:01:46
Speaker 2: or something like. I don't know, I haven't really looked
2:01:48
Speaker 2: at the box score. No, like Wilson, Gray Young, like
2:01:52
Speaker 2: those are all the best players on Vegas. They all
2:01:54
Speaker 2: played in that game, So I don't really know why
2:01:57
Speaker 2: that line was so much lower it makes no sense.
2:02:00
Speaker 2: So that's where I kind of arrive at this game, like,
2:02:03
Speaker 2: I like the spot for Vegas here to bounce back, Okay,
2:02:05
Speaker 2: because if you look at that game, it was a
2:02:07
Speaker 2: bit of an outlier that was in the direction of
2:02:10
Speaker 2: LA this time, Like, I don't think they really should
2:02:12
Speaker 2: have won this game outright based on the stats, even
2:02:15
Speaker 2: though we got the game right with a cover. They
2:02:17
Speaker 2: shot fifty five percent from the field forty eight percent
2:02:20
Speaker 2: from three. Uh, that indicates they were not really the
2:02:24
Speaker 2: better team in the game. They just shot way better.
2:02:26
Speaker 2: The Aces had more field goal attempts by nine, but
2:02:30
Speaker 2: they only shot forty five percent only thirty four percent
2:02:33
Speaker 2: from three. So LA had yeah, twelve more points from
2:02:37
Speaker 2: the three point from three point range in that game,
2:02:40
Speaker 2: Vegas out rebounded them. So Vegas was kind of the
2:02:43
Speaker 2: better team in the game and definitely had chances to
2:02:46
Speaker 2: win the game. So I know, I think it was
2:02:49
Speaker 2: still a good handicap. We got the game right, but
2:02:52
Speaker 2: now I think it swings back the other way where
2:02:54
Speaker 2: that was a misleading game for Vegas. The problem is
2:02:58
Speaker 2: Vegas was a two and a half pint favored the
2:03:00
Speaker 2: last time they were at LA and now there's seven
2:03:02
Speaker 2: and a half. What do we and the line actually
2:03:04
Speaker 2: had dropped to two or one and a half, but
2:03:06
Speaker 2: now it's seven and a half. I can't do it, man,
2:03:09
Speaker 2: I can't lay the points with Vegas when there's that
2:03:11
Speaker 2: much of a point disparity in like a span of
2:03:14
Speaker 2: two weeks. I don't really understand why that's the case,
2:03:17
Speaker 2: unless does LA have some injuries? Now, like, I have
2:03:20
Speaker 2: no idea what the fuck is going on here? Let
2:03:22
Speaker 2: me see. Yeah, I think that is why Kelsey Plumb
2:03:26
Speaker 2: is out. Yeah, that's why she's got an ankle sprain.
2:03:30
Speaker 2: So now, yeah, actually she's been out since May twenty third.
2:03:34
Speaker 2: I guess I didn't even realize that. So I was
2:03:37
Speaker 2: gonna say, well, LA would be in, you know, in
2:03:38
Speaker 2: a in an injured player theory spot. By the way,
2:03:40
Speaker 2: I think Plumb used to play for Vegas. So Plumb
2:03:43
Speaker 2: has already missed two games. By the way, so I
2:03:46
Speaker 2: missed out on the handicap in the LA Washington game.
2:03:50
Speaker 2: That would have been a little bit of a motivator
2:03:52
Speaker 2: the injured player theory spot. But then after you get
2:03:54
Speaker 2: through that injured player theory spot, a lot of times
2:03:56
Speaker 2: you don't play well in the next couple of games,
2:03:59
Speaker 2: so LA is now without plumbs. So actually that's the
2:04:01
Speaker 2: reason why Vegas is at an elevated price here. And Vegas,
2:04:06
Speaker 2: of course was nine and a half at home the
2:04:07
Speaker 2: last time, so this line is a little bit more
2:04:10
Speaker 2: in line with that. I guess if you think that
2:04:12
Speaker 2: each team only gets one point for home court, which
2:04:15
Speaker 2: actually might be about right in the WNBA. But there
2:04:17
Speaker 2: are more things to dislike about LA here. By the way,
2:04:20
Speaker 2: they're returning home from a long road trip, so that's
2:04:23
Speaker 2: another negative. You know, when a team returns on from
2:04:26
Speaker 2: the road, as I always say, they've been a ways,
2:04:27
Speaker 2: it's May twenty first. A lot of times it's a distraction.
2:04:30
Speaker 2: You got to get back to home life. The caveat
2:04:34
Speaker 2: that I would have is they're playing Vegas. That's still
2:04:36
Speaker 2: the returning champs. They're one and one against Vegas on
2:04:39
Speaker 2: the season. I think they're still going to be motivated
2:04:42
Speaker 2: to play Vegas, and it's a Cup game, so that
2:04:45
Speaker 2: might give them a little bit more motivation here, because
2:04:48
Speaker 2: of course Vegas might pay less attention to the Cup
2:04:50
Speaker 2: because they're they got their sights set on winning another championship.
2:04:54
Speaker 2: LA doesn't really have that as a goal. So those
2:04:58
Speaker 2: are my concerns with it. I like Vegas in the game,
2:05:01
Speaker 2: but I can't lay seven and a half on the
2:05:03
Speaker 2: road with them here. I think the line is just
2:05:05
Speaker 2: a little bit of an overreaction. I think it's too
2:05:07
Speaker 2: high at seven to seven and a half even eight now,
2:05:10
Speaker 2: and I think there are some factors that might still
2:05:12
Speaker 2: keep LA a little bit motivated. So I like Vegas.
2:05:16
Speaker 2: If you forced me to give you a play in
2:05:17
Speaker 2: the WNBA at all, I actually would probably lay the
2:05:20
Speaker 2: points with Vegas here, but I'm not gonna do that.
2:05:22
Speaker 2: It's not gonna make my card. And then we have
2:05:25
Speaker 2: on ABC we have the Stanley Cup Finals starting Vegas
2:05:28
Speaker 2: at Carolina. Carolina is a favorite, you know, they're probably
2:05:33
Speaker 2: about a minus two hundreds something favorite to win the
2:05:36
Speaker 2: Stanley Cup at this point. However, they do have less
2:05:40
Speaker 2: player experience. That's one thing I mentioned. And of course
2:05:42
Speaker 2: I can't even see it here even though I'm refreshing
2:05:45
Speaker 2: this page. Oh, I have to hide the fac the
2:05:48
Speaker 2: bay Q. Wait, where the fuck is the hockey game? Oh?
2:05:51
Speaker 2: Here it is? So yeah, we can see what the
2:05:53
Speaker 2: money looks like here now, So things to consider here, Yeah, Vegas.
2:05:59
Speaker 2: They have more player experience here, so they have some
2:06:02
Speaker 2: guys on the team that have been here that have
2:06:03
Speaker 2: done this before. They even have a coach that's won
2:06:06
Speaker 2: a final before in Tortorello, even though I know he's
2:06:09
Speaker 2: new to Vegas, So that's a little bit of a
2:06:12
Speaker 2: concern that, you know, do they have enough experience with
2:06:17
Speaker 2: him as their coach. I don't know, but the one
2:06:19
Speaker 2: advantage that Vegas does have in this series is the
2:06:22
Speaker 2: player experience here. But people might overrate Vegas. So Vegas.
2:06:32
Speaker 2: I'm kind of roody for Vegas as well, to be honest,
2:06:34
Speaker 2: just because it would help my bracket a little bit more.
2:06:38
Speaker 2: The more popular championship pick like Carolina got knocked out.
2:06:42
Speaker 2: I almost picked Carolina to win the championship over Vegas though.
2:06:46
Speaker 2: It was either Carolina over Vegas or Tampa over Vegas,
2:06:49
Speaker 2: and I went with the wrong one. It was bullshit
2:06:51
Speaker 2: that Tampa lost to Montreal man Montreal somehow winning that
2:06:56
Speaker 2: last game with only nine shots on goal. Absolute bullshit, correct, Vegas, dude.
2:07:02
Speaker 2: The left hates Vegas, so if you want to make
2:07:05
Speaker 2: it political, yeah, Vegas did not make a Pride post
2:07:09
Speaker 2: yesterday like all these other stupid teams. We're sick of
2:07:11
Speaker 2: that shit. Man. Instead, they pointed out that it is
2:07:14
Speaker 2: also cancer, what is it, cancer aware cancer survivors a
2:07:18
Speaker 2: month or something, so they mentioned that instead. That's a
2:07:20
Speaker 2: better thing to point out. Man. You know, yeah, cancer,
2:07:26
Speaker 2: it's a huge problem. Uh yeah. And plus my mom
2:07:29
Speaker 2: is a cancer survivor, so hey, it's it's her month.
2:07:32
Speaker 2: So I appreciated that quite a bit. And also the
2:07:36
Speaker 2: left they all were going after Vegas because of the
2:07:38
Speaker 2: Carter Heart thing, you know. The dude, I mean, I'm
2:07:41
Speaker 2: not gonna say it's like Duke lacrosse or anything that obvious,
2:07:45
Speaker 2: like and just crazy, but it's like, it's another one
2:07:48
Speaker 2: of those situations where I'm pretty sure what happened was
2:07:51
Speaker 2: a woman got drunk. She probably slept with multiple of
2:07:55
Speaker 2: these hockey players here. You know, it was just young
2:07:57
Speaker 2: people being stupid, being drunk, and then after the fact
2:08:00
Speaker 2: she regretted it and then made all these allegations against them,
2:08:03
Speaker 2: and it didn't hold up in court. A judge threw
2:08:06
Speaker 2: it out and said that, you know, this woman is
2:08:08
Speaker 2: not credible. She changed her story. I think her name
2:08:11
Speaker 2: is still not known, so the judge throughout so what
2:08:15
Speaker 2: more do you want man? So it is BS, but
2:08:16
Speaker 2: then you have everybody out there doing the same thing.
2:08:19
Speaker 2: They're doing with Trevor Bauer. Oh he's not allowed to
2:08:21
Speaker 2: come back to Major League Baseball. They're doing the same
2:08:23
Speaker 2: thing with Carter Hart, the goalie for Vegas here. Oh
2:08:27
Speaker 2: he's you know, he should be in prison. He's a
2:08:30
Speaker 2: sex of vend or a sex abuse or whatever. Well, no,
2:08:32
Speaker 2: there's no actual evidence of that, and it seems like
2:08:35
Speaker 2: it's more likely that it's one of those stupid me
2:08:37
Speaker 2: too types of situations where it was just a bunch
2:08:40
Speaker 2: of young, drunk people being dumb, you know what I mean.
2:08:44
Speaker 2: So whatever, So yeah, I think that's all some bullshit too.
2:08:49
Speaker 2: Heart is playing well throughout the playoffs, but so is
2:08:51
Speaker 2: Anderson for Carolina, So the two hot goalies throughout the
2:08:55
Speaker 2: playoffs are both playing here. I do think Vegas would
2:09:00
Speaker 2: tend to maybe get a little bit more respect because
2:09:02
Speaker 2: they did just beat Colorado, So you would think that
2:09:04
Speaker 2: the public could be a little bit more leaning towards
2:09:07
Speaker 2: Vegas here for that reason, But they might not because
2:09:10
Speaker 2: Carolina has been the better team throughout the course of
2:09:12
Speaker 2: the season, and both teams have been really hot throughout
2:09:15
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Carolina has lost one playoff game and Vegas
2:09:19
Speaker 2: hasn't lost that many more than that would they lose
2:09:21
Speaker 2: three four, I guess, So yeah, that's interesting. But I
2:09:27
Speaker 2: think Carolina won't get as much credit for beating Montreal
2:09:30
Speaker 2: because Montreal is just a young team that wasn't really
2:09:32
Speaker 2: expected to be there. But you got to give Vegas
2:09:35
Speaker 2: something because they're more battle tested. At least, Vegas did
2:09:39
Speaker 2: face the best team in hockey, Colorado and swept them
2:09:42
Speaker 2: out of the playoffs. But again, will that make Vegas
2:09:44
Speaker 2: in a letdown spot here? Will make them a little
2:09:46
Speaker 2: bit overrated? I don't think there's a letdown spot because
2:09:49
Speaker 2: this is the Stanley Cup Finals, but yeah, they might
2:09:52
Speaker 2: be a little bit, you know, over hyped off of
2:09:55
Speaker 2: that coming into this. And Vegas has had more time
2:09:58
Speaker 2: off as well, which I think is a negative because
2:10:01
Speaker 2: they just swept Colorado and like I said, when you're
2:10:02
Speaker 2: on a win streak like this, he won six games
2:10:05
Speaker 2: in a row, you don't want to have time off.
2:10:07
Speaker 2: It can cool you off. They haven't played since last Tuesday,
2:10:10
Speaker 2: so they've had a week off. Whereaus Carolina's momentum I
2:10:13
Speaker 2: continue because they played on Friday, because they lost their
2:10:17
Speaker 2: The only loss was Game one, which was a winner
2:10:20
Speaker 2: here on the show. By the way, Montreal beat Carolina
2:10:23
Speaker 2: in Game one of that series, and I think the
2:10:24
Speaker 2: whole reason for that was Carolina had an unprecedented eleven
2:10:28
Speaker 2: days off before that, so they were obviously rusty, horrible
2:10:33
Speaker 2: first period in that game, and then once they turned
2:10:35
Speaker 2: it on, they were good to go. They did have
2:10:37
Speaker 2: some close games after that, but they still dominated the series.
2:10:40
Speaker 2: If you look at the statistics, they crushed Montreal in
2:10:43
Speaker 2: that series. And now Carolina has less time off. They
2:10:46
Speaker 2: played on Friday, so I think that will hurt their
2:10:49
Speaker 2: momentum a little bit less. So Vegas has had six
2:10:52
Speaker 2: days off, Carolina has had three days off, So both
2:10:57
Speaker 2: teams are going to be rested, but I think the
2:10:58
Speaker 2: amount of rest might be in negative for Vegas because
2:11:01
Speaker 2: it might turn slightly more into rust. It's at least
2:11:03
Speaker 2: not eleven days off though, but I think that's a
2:11:05
Speaker 2: little bit of an advantage to Carolina here. Carolina is
2:11:09
Speaker 2: the better of the two teams, which is why they're favored.
2:11:13
Speaker 2: But again, Carolina is a team that hasn't made it
2:11:15
Speaker 2: to this level before Vegas has, so that's the thing.
2:11:18
Speaker 2: Like I said, that's the experience thing. Vegas has championship
2:11:21
Speaker 2: pedigree here with their coach and with the number of
2:11:24
Speaker 2: their players. Carolina does not. Because Carolina just wasn't able
2:11:28
Speaker 2: to do I don't think they have as much at
2:11:29
Speaker 2: least because they haven't been able to get through the
2:11:31
Speaker 2: Eastern Conference finals recently, you know, So I think that
2:11:35
Speaker 2: ways towards Vegas. That tilts, you know, in Vegas's favor
2:11:39
Speaker 2: a little bit here. But Vegas is also not good
2:11:42
Speaker 2: on the road, as I pointed out, although they beat
2:11:44
Speaker 2: Colorado twice on the road during the playoffs, but Vegas
2:11:47
Speaker 2: did not have a good road record during the regular season.
2:11:49
Speaker 2: Carolina was quite good at home. So the home road
2:11:53
Speaker 2: regular season splits do look like they helped Carolina here.
2:11:57
Speaker 2: During the regular season, these teams only played twice and
2:11:59
Speaker 2: Vagasgas won both games by three, which is pretty interesting.
2:12:04
Speaker 2: They were both way back in October, so these teams
2:12:07
Speaker 2: haven't played each other recently at all. But if we
2:12:10
Speaker 2: look at the first game was at Vegas. Vegas was
2:12:13
Speaker 2: undefeated at the time, and I believe Carolina either their
2:12:16
Speaker 2: first loss or second loss of the season, whatever that was. Now,
2:12:19
Speaker 2: if we look into this box score here, it was
2:12:23
Speaker 2: really close. Neither team dominated the game. Carolina had one
2:12:26
Speaker 2: more shot, but maybe that was because they were losing
2:12:29
Speaker 2: a good chunk of the game. Vegas won the faceot
2:12:31
Speaker 2: percentage and hits were close, so it looks like it
2:12:34
Speaker 2: was a close game. Vegas did put an empty netteran
2:12:37
Speaker 2: at the end. Vegas won the game four to one.
2:12:40
Speaker 2: It looks like it should have been a one goal
2:12:43
Speaker 2: game one way or the other, so maybe it was
2:12:44
Speaker 2: a little bit misleading. The second game they played, which
2:12:47
Speaker 2: was here in Carolina, still way back in October, Vegas
2:12:52
Speaker 2: won the game six to three, and Vegas actually kind
2:12:54
Speaker 2: of dominated this game. They won the shot battle by eleven,
2:12:57
Speaker 2: they won the hit battle by five, and they barely
2:13:01
Speaker 2: lost the face off battles. So if you look at
2:13:02
Speaker 2: the stats in this game, I know it was a
2:13:04
Speaker 2: six to three win. Maybe it shouldn't have been that
2:13:06
Speaker 2: much of a blowout, but Vegas did win this game. Statistically,
2:13:10
Speaker 2: each team had one power play goal, which you know,
2:13:12
Speaker 2: so I think that kind of cancels it out. If
2:13:14
Speaker 2: you're looking at how did these teams do even strength, Well,
2:13:19
Speaker 2: it was a four to two win I think for Vegas.
2:13:22
Speaker 2: If you factor it in even strength. Vegas put an
2:13:25
Speaker 2: empty net go in at the end of the game.
2:13:27
Speaker 2: Vegas had a great third period in the game. They
2:13:29
Speaker 2: actually fell behind three to two in the third period
2:13:32
Speaker 2: of that game and then put four goals in in
2:13:34
Speaker 2: the third period, one of them the empty net. Though,
2:13:37
Speaker 2: like I said, so interesting if Vegas had two multi
2:13:42
Speaker 2: goal scorers in the game but had no hat trick
2:13:45
Speaker 2: in the game. Interesting. But Vegas was actually the better
2:13:48
Speaker 2: team in that game, so they can actually compete with
2:13:51
Speaker 2: Carolina here. So all that being said, I'm not gonna
2:13:53
Speaker 2: play this game. I'm gonna wait. I'm gonna lean slightly
2:13:56
Speaker 2: towards Carolina in this game. But I think there were
2:13:59
Speaker 2: some things that worry me. Like I said, the pedigree
2:14:02
Speaker 2: that Vegas has and the fact that Vegas actually played
2:14:05
Speaker 2: Carolina well even here during the regular season has me
2:14:10
Speaker 2: concerned a little bit. But I think the extra rest
2:14:12
Speaker 2: for Vegas is a problem here. They're also having to
2:14:15
Speaker 2: travel to the West coast or to the East coast. Remember,
2:14:17
Speaker 2: Vegas has not played on the East coast for a
2:14:19
Speaker 2: long time now because they've been out west this whole time,
2:14:24
Speaker 2: So they're gonna have to go to Carolina for the
2:14:26
Speaker 2: first time during the postseason. There might be a little
2:14:29
Speaker 2: bit more of a home advantage here because the travel
2:14:31
Speaker 2: is gonna be three time zones across the country, right,
2:14:34
Speaker 2: So you might see the home advantage be a little
2:14:36
Speaker 2: bit more significant in this series. It might affect Carolina
2:14:39
Speaker 2: in the same way once they have to go on
2:14:41
Speaker 2: the road, because they won't have been out west for
2:14:43
Speaker 2: a long long time either. But yeah, I think maybe
2:14:46
Speaker 2: the rust develops for Vegas here. I'll lean Carolina slightly here.
2:14:49
Speaker 2: They're getting the money fifty four percent of tickets, seventy
2:14:52
Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on them minus one fifty
2:14:55
Speaker 2: something is the price here. So the oddsmakers are favoring
2:14:57
Speaker 2: Carolina here, telling you Caroline is the better team, which
2:15:01
Speaker 2: it is true they are, so they're getting more than
2:15:03
Speaker 2: home ice here. I would lean under for the total,
2:15:06
Speaker 2: but the money's coming in on the over sixty four
2:15:09
Speaker 2: percent of tickets, seventy four percent of the cash on
2:15:11
Speaker 2: the over. The warrior, I guess is if the goaltenders
2:15:14
Speaker 2: are kind of out of rhythm early in the game.
2:15:16
Speaker 2: But I think still, I think it under makes sense.
2:15:19
Speaker 2: It's five and a half. Both these teams play some
2:15:22
Speaker 2: pretty decent deepfense here. I think Vegas is actually the
2:15:26
Speaker 2: better offense out of the two, though Carolina is the
2:15:28
Speaker 2: better deepfense I think, which usually I like the better deepfense,
2:15:33
Speaker 2: but I think Vegas might be a little bit more
2:15:34
Speaker 2: balanced as far as that's concerned. Carolina just plays a
2:15:39
Speaker 2: lot of lower scoring games. But anyway, and if Carolina
2:15:42
Speaker 2: is controlling the pace of the game, that also kind
2:15:44
Speaker 2: of indicates towards the under here. But because both teams
2:15:47
Speaker 2: had so much time off, I think it affects the
2:15:49
Speaker 2: offense more than the deepfense because the defense can come out,
2:15:52
Speaker 2: rest of the offense can tend to be a bit
2:15:54
Speaker 2: out of rhythm. So an under or maybe like a
2:15:56
Speaker 2: first period under makes some sense to me in that game.
2:16:00
Speaker 2: But no play for me there, and that's gonna do it.
2:16:03
Speaker 2: We'll be back. I thought the NBA was starting on Thursday,
2:16:05
Speaker 2: but it's starting tomorrow, so we'll be back, probably talking
2:16:08
Speaker 2: about rest versus rust in that game too. Uh Spurs Knicks.
2:16:13
Speaker 2: As a Boston fan, I just have to root for
2:16:16
Speaker 2: the Spurs. I have to root against fucking New York Man,
2:16:19
Speaker 2: especially New York's celebrity fan base. Just get out of
2:16:22
Speaker 2: here with that shit. So hopefully the Spurs are gonna
2:16:25
Speaker 2: win at this point. No matter who was playing against
2:16:28
Speaker 2: the Knicks, that's who I was gonna be rooting for.
2:16:31
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. We have three plays today, all
2:16:33
Speaker 2: in baseball. We have Blue Jays money line first five
2:16:37
Speaker 2: backing Goussman in that one over Elder. We have under
2:16:41
Speaker 2: Giants Brewers seven and a half full game. There a
2:16:45
Speaker 2: little bit of a haftier price on it, but that's
2:16:47
Speaker 2: what I like. And then we have the A's first
2:16:50
Speaker 2: five backing gauge jump in that game against tie on.
2:16:56
Speaker 2: So let's uh yeah, that's a money line play. First
2:16:59
Speaker 2: five is let's get it done. Let's get back on
2:17:01
Speaker 2: the winning side here, two and one. I'd be satisfied
2:17:04
Speaker 2: with a two and one winning day. That's what That's
2:17:06
Speaker 2: what the goal is. Let's get back on the winning track.
2:17:09
Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. Learn a tone on Twitter, learn
2:17:11
Speaker 2: a tone on Instagram, like, subscribe to the channel here,
2:17:15
Speaker 2: tell everybody about it. We're gradually getting more subscribers here.
2:17:19
Speaker 2: So let's get it. Let's get to five hundred and
2:17:20
Speaker 2: then talk about the next milestone after that. Listen on
2:17:23
Speaker 2: an audio as well, that helps me out. Apple, Spotify,
2:17:26
Speaker 2: Spreaker covered in yuke My Ukulele cover channel. Check that
2:17:30
Speaker 2: out as well. Patreon dot com, sash learn a toe
2:17:33
Speaker 2: if you want to support me that way, I appreciate that.
2:17:36
Speaker 2: I know, for Harry Balls, I know I have to
2:17:39
Speaker 2: do that a cover. I said I was gonna do it.
2:17:41
Speaker 2: I will at some point. I gotta get my voice
2:17:43
Speaker 2: back a little bit. It's gonna be bad, dude. It's
2:17:45
Speaker 2: it's a Queen cover, and it's one of the easier
2:17:48
Speaker 2: ones to at least translate to you because it's not
2:17:51
Speaker 2: considered to be one of their like you know, like
2:17:53
Speaker 2: untouchable masterpieces. But it's still Queen is basically untouchable, you know.
2:17:59
Speaker 2: So I don't know. Hoefully I'll be able to do
2:18:01
Speaker 2: it some sort of justice. I'm gonna do that at
2:18:05
Speaker 2: some point, and then loser casts will be back tonight.
2:18:08
Speaker 2: I gotta choose a loser for tonight. I don't know
2:18:10
Speaker 2: who I want to choose. I mean, there are some
2:18:12
Speaker 2: political arena figures that we could choose. Somebody else might
2:18:16
Speaker 2: pick them, so I don't know. I'm gonna at least
2:18:18
Speaker 2: bring that up, but I think I'm gonna go with something.
2:18:20
Speaker 2: I want to go with something just ridiculous and funny
2:18:22
Speaker 2: and off the beaten path. So that's probably what I'm
2:18:26
Speaker 2: gonna be looking for. All five finds something I like
2:18:29
Speaker 2: to be current and relevant, but it's all political, so
2:18:31
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm kind of trying to push it
2:18:34
Speaker 2: into more humorous direction. And then the Giants g Spot
2:18:39
Speaker 2: podcast again. I know I keep mentioning it. We have
2:18:42
Speaker 2: one episode out there. There was a draft preview, but
2:18:44
Speaker 2: we need to do a season preview talk about what's
2:18:47
Speaker 2: happened in the draft. The Giants actually did just sign
2:18:49
Speaker 2: a few different players, so we're gonna be talking about
2:18:52
Speaker 2: some of that too. That they just signed a bunch
2:18:54
Speaker 2: of wide receivers I think, so whatever there they got
2:18:58
Speaker 2: some wide receiver depth. Now, anyway, that's gonna do it.
2:19:03
Speaker 2: I'll be back tomorrow. I suppose hopefully we get some
2:19:05
Speaker 2: wins today. Peace, but don't you go quiet. Don't you
2:19:12
Speaker 2: fade from the floor.
2:19:14
Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show with
2:19:18
Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me, now.
2:19:26
Speaker 6: Hold on, hold on nothingne now hold on, hold on.
2:19:38
Speaker 4: Let me for you that long bite's hord. But it
2:19:47
Speaker 4: don't get the
2:19:49
Speaker 5: Crown, hold on, hold on, and stay with me now