Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | MARKETS MONDAY | Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | MARKETS MONDAY | Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: A down day in the grains today.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm super psyched, be that as it may, about today's guest.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: I've waited for a little bit to bring him on.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: I've got my feet under me now, and there's no telling where this conversation might go, but I can guarantee we'll have a great chat with Bubba.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Agbol, your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman in a tie today.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's a big day, a big day.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: We we talked with an old friend from the radio show, Ted Hamer, the uh farm and farmer from Central Iowa last week, and I've got another great, great guest from back in my own personal archives in the Rolodex.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: I've been holding this one back just to make sure that you guys were ready, that we were all up to speed, and that we could put together a decent program worthy of a guest of his stature, Todd Bubba Horwitz joins me today, and I'm really excited about it.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about all sorts of stuff.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: He's got very strong opinions, good, good thoughts on the markets.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, I'm just gonna run down some questions that I have for him, but in conversations with Bubba in the past, if you've heard me chat with Bubba in the past or maybe seen him on other programs, you know it feels like everything is on the table here.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll we'll let the conversation unfold as it wants to, and we're certainly glad to have you along for the ride.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: I hope you enjoy the show.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: It is Ag Squawk in the afternoon here for Ag Bull Media.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: If you're not an Ag Bull subscriber, let me encourage you to visit Ag Bull.com.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: I've got a little box here coming that's gonna have one of the uh Bluetooth speakers that we're offering for a one-year subscription, 250 big ones, that's two months for free.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Or take it slow.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Take it slow.
• 2:11
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• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Just test the waters, it's fine.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: However, you want to do it is fine.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: But uh, if you gotta have that uh Bluetooth speaker, it's just a small, simple thank you from us just to say, hey, we appreciate you.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's for the uh one-year annual subscription.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: And having said that, let's just jump right into it here.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have a slide for it today.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: You know what?
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: Before we do export inspections, I do have some daily sales, looks like here in my notes.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: I almost missed them.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I've got 114,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, 261,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, all that for the 26-27 marketing year.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: And now over to those export inspections.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Not that great in the weekend of October 15.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Nearly half the prior week and nearly half of what they were in the same week last year, corn at 672.5,000 metric tons.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Once again, no sign of China on the corn side, with Mexico leading the list of buyers.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans were uh sharply higher, just over 2 million metric tons.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: And here we did see China at the top of the list at 1.28 million metric tons.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, wheat export inspections came in at 240,000 metric tons, 20% below that prior week, and 51% below year ago.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about the markets.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to the tail of the ticker where corn, soybeans, and wheat were under pressure from the opening bell this morning.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Livestock futures were mostly lower, with lean hogs narrowly mixed, rounding into the lunch hour.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Corn, soybeans, and wheat were extending session lows.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures mostly higher, with feeder futures leading gains, and lean hogs mostly lower.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about the settlements here.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: All told, I've got December corn down seven and one quarter cents today at 467.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: November soybeans down seven and three quarter cents, twelve fifty-three and one-half.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I do want to talk to Bubba about just some harvest pressure, some expectations that maybe we had.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: I know that I had looking at a five and a 13 in the dies corn and the November beans, and now here we are significantly lower than that, moderately lower than that.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if significantly is the right word for that.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: You know what?
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: We'll find out what the right word is from Bubba.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the meal and the oil, both of them lower in the soy complex.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago wheat down five and a quarter cents, 655 and a quarter at settlement.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then we've got uh Chicago KC wheat, 699 and one half.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: That one's down four and a half cents on the day.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Over to the livestocks, the feeder cattle, end of the day on the goodfoot, up to 02 and one half at 343.92 and a half.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: The December fat cattle, 228.02.5.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's down 32 and 12 cents.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: The October down, it looks like just five cents, 227.50.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: But out to the feb in the April, we were higher out there the further out that we get.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: So the deferred fat cattle a little higher on the day.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty sleepy day in the Fed cattle.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: And the lean hog futures, December contract 57 and one half lower, 66.35.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: The feb also 57 and one half lower at 68 and 65.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Let me thank plus 500.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 T4 software is where me and my squad get all of our real-time quotes, futures and options, and a host of dandy features.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you to plus 500 for programming support.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 trust plus 500.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: And with that, oh yeah.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's a big day.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: Todd Bubba Horwitz from BubbaTrading.com.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: How are you, my brother?
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Long time no talk.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Hope all is well with you.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: What's shaking, buddy?
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: The handsome newsman.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: I'm finally getting to see you on face.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: And by the way, I'm gonna give a plug for plus 500 too, because I've used it for over 20 years.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: I've been using plus 500 from the beginning, and it's a great platform.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Love it.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: Anybody who trades should use it.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's by far the best that's out there.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: Everything's great, Davis.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: How are you doing, buddy?
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm glad to see you again.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: We got a lot of lots to go over.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, I'm the only guest you have that has his own disclaimer, just in case, because I got I get out of hand sometimes.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we appreciate you being here, and we'll take you in whatever form we can get you because you've always got if if if not the most helpful things to say, at least things that that that lead people to think.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I and I feel like that's sort of part of the fiber of your being, is thinking about things and thinking about them from maybe different ways is gotta be sort of a I don't know if you recognize it this way, but a priority for you.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Is that am I saying that right, Bubba?
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: No, you're you're right.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: I've been very fortunate and like to help how to help the people out there.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that too many have been run over by scams and things like that in our industry.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, and I think that it's important that they recognize and that there's better ways to do things and safer ways to do things, and that uh, and there's also less expensive ways to do things.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, I like to I like to be a bit of help.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: That's yeah, that's kind of my way of giving back.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: I love that.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: I absolutely love that.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: You look looks like life is treating you well.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Looks like you're you know, you're still growing hair, you know, you got a little bit of a tan going there.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: You're in Vegas now, you're originally a Chicago boy.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: We're born and raised in Chicago, is that right?
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: Born and raised in Chicago and spent the first 60 some years of my life there.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: That can't be right.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: That must be a mathematical error.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: No way you've had 60 years.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm almost 70, big boy.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, for Pete's sake.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: I don't believe it.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: Not for a second there.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to me about Las Vegas.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: You and I have talked about this before many times, but economic conditions in Vegas had become strained, and I kind of lost touch with that whole setup there.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Can you talk to me about Vegas?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: The the cost of you know, some fried eggs and hash in the morning, how a cup of coffee?
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: What's it look like in Vegas right now economically?
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, it depends where you go, but where the average tourist goes, tourism is way down.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: It it it really sucks here.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, let's let's let's put it to you that way.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: You know, with the corporate bean counters looking to squeeze every dime out of every person, every possible dollar they can get.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you can't eat breakfast at on the strip for less than$35.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, it's kind of a joke, but of course they're paying it now because, again, tourism's down, I think, 10.5%.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: They've changed some of the rules of the table games.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they they they didn't realize how good they had it and what a great place it was.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: And they've systematically destroyed a lot of the tourism and the people that live here.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, prices have gone, you know, extremely high.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: And now again, we go to local places, so we know it's just like being anywhere else.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, if you're a traveler, if you're a tourist, if you're running a convention here, they're gonna take your eyes out with the with the prices that they charge.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: And it's it's it's sad because listen, I'll put it this way when the gangsters ran Las Vegas, it was clean, it was it was inexpensive, you could live a great life here on a low income.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now, with the with the corporations running everything, they cannot wait to charge enough and charge more.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: And they get away with X and then they'll charge a little bit more.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: And again, they're squeezing the customer, but they don't care.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: They care about the profit and the bottom line, and they don't realize that they'd make more profit with more people and have more people coming if they would, you know, go back a little bit and and quit trying to squeeze everybody.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Are they targeting a higher income bracket by doing this consciously and maybe trying to squeeze out, you know, some of the just regular middle class folks?
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, has it has it become a boutique city as far as tourism goes?
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Is that an intentional?
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: No, they keep they keep building here, so they're they're looking for everybody, but what they're not recognizing, Davis, is you know, over 20% of the population is 90 days past two on their credit cards.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: Over 9% of the people are are defaulting on their car loans, and over 8% are defaulting on their mortgages.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I kind of compare this time in in markets and even in Las Vegas.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: So we have more homes for sale here than ever in history before, and they're still building.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: You've got 0% financing they're offering now, which when when you when you do that, what they're really telling you is that they're stuck with a lot of bad debt and they need to get it off their books.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: So we've got that problem.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: And when I look at the overall market situation, I think this is a breed between 2001 when the Nasdaq had the crash and 2008 with the housing crash.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's what we're looking at is a combination of a of a of a 2001-2008 market bubble, market collapse, because there's a lot of reasons to believe that the equity markets are going to collapse here pretty soon.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: Where does the capital come from for these?
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: If you're talking about the city continuing to expand and building projects continuing to go on, who's who's fronting the money for all that?
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: How do you get the money?
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the banks are fronting the money, the organization are fronting the money, but at the end of the day, you know who's really fronting the money, right?
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's the you and me, the taxpayer.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: Because when the banks fail, and they'll fail again.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I personally, again, I have no evidence to this, but I personally believe the banks are overleveraged once again.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we already have that ridiculous fractional banking, which is 10 times that they can loan.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, the banks use the Fed funds rate, they borrow from the Federal Reserve, which is us, okay?
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: They borrow from the Federal Reserve, they take that liability, they turn it into an asset, and then they lend out 10 times the amount.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: So they're building more liability.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: And again, I think it's an overall problem, but that's how they keep building because of the banking industry.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: And listen, it's a it's a green factor.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: And look at it this way: if you had a business that you basically had no risk and you knew the Federal Reserve and the American taxpayer would bail you out if you went out of business, would you not gamble and take a lot of risk to knowing that you would get bailed out anyways?
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: As they did in 08, they should have never bailed out the banks in 2008.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: They should have bailed out the depositors and let the banks that fail fail.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: Because at the end of the day, true capitalism, businesses go out and new businesses come in and take their place.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: But they don't want that.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: They want to continue.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: And that I think you know what how anti-Fed I am, right?
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: You've heard me talk about it a number of times.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's like I'll tell the whole story.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_01: However, the guy we have in office now, Kevin Wars, seems to be the real deal.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's got a handle.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think he can correct all the problems that go all the way back to Greenspan to correct of the bubbles that they built, but I think he's got the right idea, which means interest rates are going higher, which is also going to be bad for the common person, which is why we've seen a dramatic slowdown in housing.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of issues there, but I think he's got the right idea because inflation is way too high.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: We had two hot reports last week, and they're not even accurate.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: They're way low to what real inflation is.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_01: But at the end of the day, I think for for a Fed that I don't like, I think he's doing a good job.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: I was gonna ask you about that.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: That would that was on toward the the lower end of my list of questions here, because you were you were critical of Jerome Powell throughout his entire tenure.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: I I I think uh you and I were interacting through the entire time that he was in charge of the Fed, and it just didn't seem like he could he could do anything to make you happy there.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: And but but you're a little friendlier on Kevin Warsh.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean I I I think you you know, Davis, farmers and producers, you and me, we're supposed to live in a free market society, right?
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: Prices are supposed to be determined by buyers and sellers.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: Buyers and sellers meet, they make prices covering, they exchange wealth, right?
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: The Fed, previous to warsh, was not doing that.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_01: They were trying to manipulate markets, they were making money cheaper so they could build this what we call a K-shaped economy, right?
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're not familiar with a K-shaped economy, a K looks like this, only the upper end of the K is doing well in these conditions, and it's and it's a it's a tragedy because they're destroying and wiping out the middle class, and that becomes very much problematic because the middle class are the taxpayers, they're the workers, they're the people that keep this country running.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: And if you put them out of business and you take jobs away from them, which is happening with AI, it becomes a much bigger problem because there's not going to be enough support to support all the products that we build and all the products that we need to continue to grow the economy.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned, and I and rightly so, that an increase in interest rates would uh would inflict pain on the downstream consumer, the common folk, the you know, folks like you and me.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: But isn't short-term pain, right?
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: Short-term pain for long-term gain.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: Is that is that the game that needs to be played here?
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: We need to increase interest rates, rip off the band-aid, yes, a period of pain to eventually cool things down a little bit.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh no, I would agree with that 100%.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: Listen, let's let's be honest about something, right?
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: My first mortgage is 14%.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know, a lot of people that are under the age of, let's say, 35, they have no idea what interest rates really are.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: The interest rate market is telling you, I mean, the tenure is 535 right now, and I think it's getting to six percent before the year's over.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: For years, the Federal Reserve ignored the bond market and what they wanted to do, and the bond market finally kind of put its foot down and is forcing the Fed's hand here.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: But if you go out, if an average guy, or let's say a farmer, farmer or producer, when they go borrow money, they're not borrowing money at the Fed funds rate.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: They're not borrowing money at oh, just over prime.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: They're borrowing money at risk capital at probably two to three points over what everybody else borrows at.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be it'll be a little bit more conflicting to the farmers and producers because of what they do.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's considered a higher risk program and higher risk capital.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: But at the end of the day, the only thing we can slow down these prices, and the only way we can slow down this inflation is to slow down the spending to let things get caught up and let people get back in business.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: And if we can get back to that and get back to a true capitalist society instead of a Federal Reserve-driven, you know, stock market society, because that's really all they really drove was the stock market.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, it's great for those who can invest, but how many people other than their 401ks pension funds are actually invested?
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: That is the uh the next question you have to ask yourself.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: And if you look at the recent volume, not very many.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: I uh I asked you once before.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let me let me go to this instead.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: I've I've heard talk that Warsh may have some higher political aspirations.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody told me once he he thinks that that Warsh wants to be president someday.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: Have you heard anything like that?
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: I have not, but again, let's be honest.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really I don't read too much of the news because again, if you're gonna look at the news, you've got to pick a side of whose news you're gonna read.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: Uh huh.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's we don't have neutral reporting.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we don't have Huntley and Brinkley anymore.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: We have if you're a Democrat, you watch this channel.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: If you're a Republican, you watch this channel, and you bounce back and forth.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: So, but I wouldn't listen, I like Kevin Warsh.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: Again, I think he's doing a good job.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I listen, I think the tenures are gonna be at six percent before the year's over.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, all right.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's a chance that there's two more rate hikes before the year's over.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: So I I think that, and it does he have he certainly could qualify for higher aspirations.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: Again, he's done a very good job.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: And what I really like about him, you never hear from him.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: Okay you don't you don't see him except at the meetings.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't heard from him since the last meeting, have you?
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, no, and that was a critique I think under the under Powell's under Powell's leadership is that they just telegraphed everything.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: If you knew what was going to happen before it actually happened, and then it it had basically no effect.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean there listen, the the Fed is is a private corporation, supposedly.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: We know it's really not, but you know, that's why they called it the Federal Reserve, the creature from Dreckel Island, you know, started in 1913.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: Look, it's it's it's it was operated and owned by four of the biggest criminals in the world, the Rothschild family, Paul Warburg, the Rockefellers, and JP Morgan.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: You tell me what chance the average American has against those people.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: The deck certainly uh has has been has been stacked, shall we say?
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_00: Let me ask you this you go out and shop for your own milk and eggs?
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: I do not, but my wife does, and it's very expensive.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Does she do you have any idea what's a gallon of milk go for or a half gallon?
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: I have no, I have not a clue, but uh but I I I know it's very, very expensive to go shopping.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_01: I see the receipts, yeah, but I never really look at the individual products because what am I gonna do?
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta, I gotta drink it, eat it anyway.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: So what's the what am I gonna do?
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of how kind of how it is with rates, isn't it?
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna do?
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: You can look at it, you can see it all day long.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna do?
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: You Bill, yeah.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_01: What really has happened is you see housing prices coming down because people got into the habit because you know, remember, we're a buy-the-month society, right?
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody looks at things, how much is it by the month?
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: So if I look at my mortgage rate, if it's X per month, I can buy a more expensive house because I can get a cheaper rate.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's a real bad situation that has been created by these longer, lower, lower for longer interest rates because it really didn't do any good.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, the biggest our biggest problem is we can't get our government to stop spending ridiculous amounts of money on stupid projects that don't work anyways and don't help the consumer.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, you know, again, I'm a Trump fan, but you know, he's spending way too much money and making too many promises that can't that he can't fulfill, and that's a problem, okay?
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_01: Because we're gonna have to pay interest on the debt, but at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: Cut the spending, go back to you know, real life.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if you and I lived like our government lives, we'd be in bankruptcy court or jail.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: Let's uh sometime you and I should should sit down and and drink an adult beverage and and talk about the uh the Trump strategy because I'm a little confused by it, but I don't want to get into it here because I don't, I just I detest politics.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm I'm with you on that.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: I just can't take it.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: I just absolutely can't take it.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: I listen, I agree.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: I I uh listen, our whole system is broken.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let let's move on.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: We won't talk about it.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, very good.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: How about this one?
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: You ever take the wife over to the sphere there?
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_00: I hear I hear all kinds of my wife is a big uh backstreet boys fan.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: Apparently, they've they've made quite the splash down there at the sphere.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_00: There's the wizard of oz.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: The wizard of oz are unbelievable.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: The wages are unbelievable.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, you saw the eagles there.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, now that'd be good.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: I can see the sphere from my house.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh on my backyard, I'm about a thousand feet above the strip, so I can see down to the strip from the back from my pool in the back yard.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: So, do you ever wake up in the morning and uh maybe before the sun comes out, it's still a little twilighty, and they've got it got an eyeball on the extra there, and they're just watching.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: All right, here's another one.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: Here's another one.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: I I want to get to corn and soybeans, but I'm just fascinating.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_01: And you're trying to keep me so I don't get too wound up.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: I can see your no, not at all.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Very calm conversation.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and here's the thing.
• 21:57
  SPEAKER_00: Not at all.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: Not at all.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I was just gonna say, you you do seem a little calmer under Warsh.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: You really do, like a little more at ease.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: I can your countenance is just sort of.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: More serene, Bubba.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: I love it.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it it's at least at least we're seeing some sort of a free market kind of trade.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, that's better.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, there's no real news coming out, which which makes me happy.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: And I got longer than my normal two-minute soundbite to get my thoughts out.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, we got a long way to go, Bubba.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_00: We got a long way to go.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: There's no commercial break coming up at all to save either of us.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: So uh we're in this together.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't hold out hope for a quick end to the Iran war.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: Let me just throw some gasoline on the fire there.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I nor do I hold out hope for the Russia-Ukraine war.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: And I feel like that that just equates to higher crude oil prices, higher gasoline prices, higher diesel prices, just higher prices until all this stuff gets wrapped up.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: I don't see an end in sight.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: Can you can you help me out there?
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh well, Russia-Ukraine six years now and still going.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that listen, that's about money.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's about stealing money.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: Look at all the money we've given them.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_01: That that's a whole crisis all to itself.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: The Iran war, we made a terrible mistake.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you want to go in, great, but you got to end it.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, not to talk politics, but this is going to become a political hotbed as well because of the high price you're paying at the pump, right?
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_01: No, you're right.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, a lot of places, I don't know what you're playing, you know, where you are.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_01: In Las Vegas, gas is over$5 a gallon at Costco.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: In Texas, I think it's in the 380s, but that's still very, very expensive.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: And again, if you're not making a a lot of money, that's a big part of your income, especially if you have to use your vehicle to go to work and or or salesperson driving around.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: I do see oil coming in.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think if you look out the curve, if you look at the backwardation that is in oil, okay, a year out oil is about$70 a barrel.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: I see, you know, if we if you look at it from the origination of the Iran War, which we got to 120, subsequently, each time we rallied, we rallied a little bit less.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_01: I would not be surprised to see crude in the 70s before the years out.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think that part of the crisis will be resolved because the truth of the matter is the oil that we have here, we have an over, we have a glut of oil in this country.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: The real problem comes back to the refiners and the oil companies.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_01: They're making a massive amount of profit.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_01: All the oil companies created record profits because they don't want to refine.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: So they're creating their own shortage, very similar to what the Packers are doing in the cattle markets.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: They're keeping these prices obnoxiously high when there's really no reason for it.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_00: I I feel like, and we can talk, I don't know if this gets political or not.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think so.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: But I've raised this question before, and I'll just throw it at you.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_00: I think the I think the original strategy with Iran didn't work.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think it was a good idea, a minimal damage, quick hit.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_00: Let's cut the head off the snake, and that'll be the end of that.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: But what happened is when we didn't cut the head off the snake, we broke the mirror.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_00: And so now we're dealing with all these little factions, all these little shards of trouble all over the place.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how you deal with that.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the answer is to that.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's a recipe for a prolonged conflict, dude.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, we we have a tendency in this country, if you go back to the Vietnam War, you go back to Afghanistan to create these situations that really could have been taken care of much more swiftly.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: Now, again, I don't want to hurt any innocent people.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, we we know that you know in Iran, I mean the religious fanatics are what 2% of the actual country of Iran.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but they carry a big voice and a big stick, right?
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_01: To me, unfortunately, I think you have to you have to hurt some innocence because you have to resolve this conflict.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: It it is is doing nobody no good.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that we're being too soft trying to resolve this.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now, certainly we have the power and the force to take over the straits, if that happens to be the case.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think we have the power and the force to end this quicker.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that that was the bigger problem.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think if you in a situation like this, when you're dealing with people who hate America anyways, and that that teach death to America, I think you just got to take them out.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: Now, and again, I don't want to see innocent people hurt.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's not, it's never my my goal.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_01: I want to treat the enemy, but at the end of the day, this is causing much more problems than than it than it's worth based on what's going on right now.
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I think we totally blew our overall opportunity to fix this problem, okay, and we're letting letting it linger on.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: Now, is it letting it linger on because of all the money it's creating for the defense contract?
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: There's always that, you know, that's that there's always that very skeptical side of myself.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: Where people, you know, because war is big money, right?
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: War is big money for big corporations.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: It it hurts the little guys, but the little guys in politics, they don't care about the little guys.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: They talk about how they like them, but I mean, you see what's going on with Alan Omar right now.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, and again, uh not to be political, but she's got no money, but all of a sudden she's got six million dollars.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so those are the problems, and those are those profits are created by situations just like this.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, well, let's uh let's let's make our way over toward the corn and the soybeans because I kind of started out the show thinking about, and as I was getting ready for the show today, I was thinking about you know, we had five some yeast corn, 13 some Novi beans just ahead of harvest.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it was kind of a surprise when we we arrived there, and then that we we stayed there so long.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now we're under some pressure, we're getting a little bit more yield data out.
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: USDA increased their yield number.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: Here we are now in you know, the high, not even the high fours and the the mid-12s in in the soybeans here.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_00: In a normal year, wouldn't we expect to have pressure this time of year anyway?
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_00: Did we get a little bit spoiled by that run up?
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: Because I thought, oh boy, here we go.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: Five now, we're going to six, boys.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do this.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: And now, like, I feel like this is just a little bit of a reality check and maybe even healthy for the corn and soybean markets.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: Can we get into that?
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, sure.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: I I think that they look okay.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I listen, I was very bullish all the way up.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: I'm still very bullish.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're actually probably gonna end up in a cyclical bull market and commodities when it's all said and done.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think you've seen a little bit of pressure.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the equities kept rallying, which took away some money there.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, finally last week we had a little bit of pressure in equities.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it's gonna take an equity meltdown to get us back into those fives and possibly six and seven in wheat, of course, and 13 in beans, but I think they're going a lot higher.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think if they can hold these lower levels where they are now, they've got a little bit of leeway to the downside.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: But if they can hold down here, I think we get a massive bull market out of it.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of new money will start flowing in.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think when you start to see uh the equity start to come off, I think that will bring money into uh the grain markets.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: Again, I'm not a big believer of all these reports and all the stuff we get.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: You know, USDA and Fed are like the same animal to me.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, yeah.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I think every farmer knows what his supply is and what he can sell.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: And one of the problems is obviously we haven't had any major weather events, which has created these shortages, but I think you're starting to see some of the funds starting to dip in.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, we know that the commodity space is like the secondary market where money goes.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: Now they don't trade often, but once they start trading, they really start to push.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I think we're getting to that point where we're getting a lot more, we're getting a lot more participation from the funds, and I think they're gonna start pushing them a lot higher here.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_01: And I I think it's gonna be sooner rather than later.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like funds are generally comfortable staying long, especially on the corn side.
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think we had a few of them peel off, but not like I had expected here.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, have I got that correct?
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: And if so, what keeps what keeps the hangers on hanging on here on the long side of the corn and and even those that are on the long side of the bean market?
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think they see that the the the trends are are changing.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_01: I I think they also look at the equity markets.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: Again, there's those are very closely related, you know, equities and and commodities because typically if it comes out of one, it goes into the other.
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I think we saw kind of what happened you know last week in the equities.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there's a little bit of a rally today, but not very big considering how much selling we saw.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that again, there these funds are starting to get active.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: And the more active they get, the bigger the rally is going to be.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's going to be the overall case here is that they're going to continue to participate.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: And as money starts to outflow out of equities, you know, the initial meltdown, you know, the initial heavy selling we saw last week was not real bullish for the grains at the time because when we get those heavy sell-offs, no asset class is safe, right?
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody's selling something to meet a margin call somewhere else.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_01: But once it settles in, and I think we're getting close to that point, I think that money that came out of equities will flow into the grain markets and into other commodities like cotton and cocoa and others.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I do look for a super cycle uh bull market in in the uh grains along with the rest of the commodity space.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: A super cycle that sounds awesome.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_00: Like uh, we got the Super El Nino, we got the super hurricanes.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now a super cycle in the grains.
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_00: I like the sound of that, but it kind of feels like, and I'm thinking corn specifically here in conversations I've had with with other market folk, you know, it it feels like it's a little a little early to jump in and a little early, you know.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's just sort of wait and see here where the bottom ends up.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_00: Is that a strategy that that appeals to you as well?
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, I I don't think you know, I think anybody who tries to buy a bottom or sell a top should go see a doctor and have their head examined.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, I I think that you have to wait.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I certainly I don't think there's any rush to rush in into the grain markets right now.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think they've shown over the last you know 10 days that they've basically been headed lower, one little rally in between.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: I would think you want to see how how they react on these lows here, and you want to buy them when they're on their way back up.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_01: And you don't have to step in with a full position and you know, let's say you want to put in you know$1,000.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't matter.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_01: You start you start out with$250.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_01: If they come back a little bit, you can average in.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_01: If they continue to rise, you can buy a little bit more.
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: So you pay a little bit more, but it doesn't really matter because you're looking for a much longer term cycle.
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_01: So you're looking for that that bull market to go.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: So at the end of the day, you know, you start out and you wait until you have a reason.
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_01: Like I have no reason to buy to add to my grain positions right now.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: Right now, they look like they're going down.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: And now I know in in wheat, probably 640 is probably a level, probably 450 in corn, probably 1230 or 1240 in soybeans.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: But if we stop and start rallying before that, then I will add to my positions because I do think that the the path of least resistance is going to be up.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, we would have collected with the news we had, we would have been much lower than we are right now.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_01: You have to look at the depth and the size of the sell-off and the weight that it carried versus everything else.
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_01: So we haven't been, you know, the selling's been coming on pretty light volume, which is unusual, right?
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_01: Selling usually comes on very heavy volume.
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_01: So this is telling me that there's more buyers waiting in the lurking, looking to buy, and more of these funds are waiting to participate.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm I'm looking for opportunities and for a reason to buy more.
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_01: I already own some and I'm looking for reasons to buy more.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, that uh that's an encouraging thought right there.
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_00: But you know what?
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: Let's just let's hit the pause here because I'm gonna switch lanes real quick, just a little bit.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_00: But first, bubba trading.com.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_00: BubbaTrading.com is where people want to go.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_00: Is that still the spot to find you if people want to want to holler at you?
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, it actually is go.bubbaTrading.com, but they'll find me either way.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_01: But go go.bubbaTrading.com, they can check me out.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_00: Go.bubbaTrading.com.
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_00: Take us over to the stock market a little bit because I've been watching this.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: We're waffling on either side of uh 52 on the Dow here, and it feels like as one of those psychological tipping points here.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know, I'm not a huge equities guy, and you know, I know your your bread and butter has been the ags, but you you did mention mention the equities there.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_00: How how stable are we around 52 and how much does it matter?
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_01: I don't I don't think we're stable at all.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_01: I think we're going significantly lower.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think that I am personally looking for a 40 to 60 percent haircut in this market before it's all set.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now, again, it's not gonna happen in one day, but there are so many warning signs out there from the massive amounts of debt that we have to to the you know defaults that we're starting to see, uh, to the jobs we're losing.
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: And don't forget the AI Ponzi scheme that we're dealing with right now.
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: I was gonna ask you about that.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they have over a trillion dollars on off-balance sheet debt.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_01: Think about that.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: Over a trillion dollars.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_01: Every well, the videos were six trillion.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_01: I yeah, but how much of that is debt and how much is that is real?
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, and I'm not listening I'm not saying it's not gonna work, but I mean the internet turned out to be a big boom, but valuations got too high in the 90s, created the big market collapse in 01.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_01: Housing got too overvalued in 08 and caused the big meltdown.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: And I think here you have a combination housing is too out of control, AI is too out of control.
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, think about the cost of building AI.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_01: You know, everybody complained about energy costs.
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, when Bitcoin first came out and people were mining it, their electric bills were crazy, and people said you can't do that because it's too expensive.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: Do you realize that AI takes about a hundred times more power to mine to work than Bitcoin did?
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_01: And unfortunately, you and me are paying for it in our electric bills.
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_01: And these data centers that they're building, what happens when they don't need any more data centers?
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they're you're they're propping up a lot of things on air without the proper amount of earnings to meet what they're the debt that they're committed to.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_01: So, like I said, am I right?
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_01: But what I think, I think that the market's due for a meltdown.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think it does collapse.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think we do get a one big sell-off, and I think it's gonna be a pretty nasty bear market for probably, you know, when it starts, it'll probably last six months to a year.
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and you know, it it brings me back to our our earlier part of this conversation here.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: Who's who's financing?
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_00: Who's putting up the front money to build more houses in a down housing market in Las Vegas?
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: Who's putting up who's pouring money into AI that that appears so sketchy right now?
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's uh like you had mentioned, it's almost good money after bad going in just because that's well, that's just where where the money goes, you know.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: That's the that's the FOMO trade from investors.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_01: That's the banks that are lending the money.
• 37:37
  SPEAKER_01: That's you know, that's the uh the big funds buying.
• 37:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, a group like BlackRock, who owns a lot of real estate anyways, you know, they kind of priced out the small investor, they could buy these houses because, again, they're not in a position that they're going to have to sell.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you have to look at you know their balance sheet.
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_01: They own so much real estate throughout the world that it's sickening because they're they're really pricing out the average guy in the street, yeah, because they can, and they can afford to hold on to those assets even empty for a while because of the way their funds are built.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_01: So the money is, but the money eventually will come from the taxpayer, in my opinion, because eventually the banks are going to be in trouble once again because I think they're over-leveraged, even though we get that monthly or quarterly audit that says that they're safe and sound.
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_01: I would like to I'd like to bet against that because I don't think they're so safe and sound.
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think they get away with a lot, and I think there's a lot of things.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think maybe Warfare might flush this out as well.
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_01: But I I again I think these whole the situation that you look at, they're lending too much money.
• 38:39
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, fractional banking where they can lend out 10 times what they're holding, I think they're more higher than that.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're probably closer to 20.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_01: So that they get any down move.
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's like any Ponzi scheme.
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_01: As long as you can create new money and have people come in, you can that Ponzi scheme will exist.
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_01: But once the markets start to dry up, once we start to see higher defaults, less borrowing, all of a sudden that Ponzi scheme the banks are running and the and the AI is running, dries up and it comes collapsing down.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: Just just ask those who invested with Bernie Madoff.
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, right.
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let me ask you about this one.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: Talk to our gold and silver bugs out there, because for a long time, and I was a guy that did this, and I haven't in quite a while, but you know, I'd go out with every paycheck and and spend just a just a little bit, get a little bit of a little bit of physical silver.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_00: If I was feeling spending maybe a little bit of a little bit of physical gold here, I'm looking at gold, you know, up north of 4,000 in the spot market, silver just shy of 60, platinum up over 16 right now.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_00: What about folks, you know, who are thinking, geez, you know, Uncle Bill and my granddad, and everybody said just buy a little silver and put it away for one day.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think those were under depressed prices compared to today.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_00: How do we how do we handle that?
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: Is there something else we should be doing, or or should we just stay steady, stay true to the plan, and and hope a dollar cost averages out at the end?
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um, well, it's gold and silver have proven to go up year over year every year.
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, I remember gold was$80 an ounce.
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I remember the Dow one was$800.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I think you keep investing.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_01: I I think the bigger problem that investors make is they invest money they don't have to invest, and they borrow or they leverage to buy it.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_01: A, I think you should be buying physical metals.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: Only traders should be trading the paper stuff.
• 40:38
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_01: Anybody who's investing should be buying physical metals.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, that's my opinion.
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_01: I own physical metals, I don't own any none of my long-term holdings that I'm holding with my son, okay, are in gold or silver.
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_01: Everything that I trade is on paper, okay, that I'm trading.
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_01: If I'm buying it to put it away and I'm investing in it, I'm holding it, and I'm buying it for the long term.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_01: I don't care what the price does.
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_01: I saw it go to 120.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure we're going back to 120 at some point.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_01: But again, investing is a very interesting point.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_01: You have to invest with money that you have that you're not going to need to pay the rent, the mortgage, the car payment.
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 41:23
  SPEAKER_01: That's why you take a little bit.
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_01: That's why everybody should figure out an amount.
• 41:27
  SPEAKER_01: Because you know, there's an old saying, you every paycheck you pay yourself first, right?
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_01: Whatever that amount is, it doesn't have to be a thousand dollars, it doesn't have to be two thousand, doesn't have to be, it can be ten dollars.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: But if you do it religiously and you buy versus every single paycheck, then you're gonna have a lot of money when you get to the finish line because those assets are going to grow, especially hard assets like gold and silver.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_01: Now they've been under pressure because of the higher interest rates, which makes sense.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_01: But again, they will go once again.
• 41:59
  SPEAKER_01: We will make new highs once again in gold and silver, and someday gold will trade 10,000.
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying anytime soon, yeah, but someday it'll trade 10,000.
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and you'll need that to keep up with inflation.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_01: Remember this if you go today and you buy a CD that's they're paying about 5% right now, you realize a CD at 5% is really just breaking even, it's just protecting your money, it's washing your money, not giving you any chance for real growth.
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_00: All right, you know what?
• 42:30
  SPEAKER_00: Let's uh let's start making our way toward the door here.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_00: We'll go slow.
• 42:35
  SPEAKER_00: We'll go slow.
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not ready to end the conversation just yet, but I want I want you to take all the things that we've been discussing here, talk to our farmer friends out there, talk to, you know, I've got I've got some regular non-farmer folks, just regular people who who are listening, who need to go out and buy eggs, who are thinking about, you know, oh geez, I'm gonna need a new car pretty soon.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna have to finance that, or at least part of it.
• 43:00
  SPEAKER_00: Start with the farmers, but but roll some of these ideas all into some some closing thoughts to help us get our heads around how we can best position ourselves, or in your mind, you know, do a good job of positioning ourselves with harvest in mind, with all this sort of stuff in mind here, Bubba.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_00: Start with the farmers.
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_00: What what's your what's your word to them?
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, just I uh as I've always said many times, is you just be hedged and they don't have to worry about it anymore.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_01: They hedge their product, they hedge their crop, and and and then they can hold on.
• 43:30
  SPEAKER_01: And they never want, you know, too many people have taught them how to give up the upside.
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to give up the upside.
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_01: I want to hedge the downside, but if we get that big bull market I'm looking for, I want to be able to benefit from the bull market that I think is coming.
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_01: But I do want to make sure that you know, we just roll down, we we had hedges on in in soybeans from 13 and change.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_01: We just roll them down today to 1250.
• 43:51
  SPEAKER_01: That's what the position that you need to be in because you're not investing, you're planting so that you can sell so that you can make a profit.
• 43:59
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty basic.
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_01: Regular investors should could keep investing.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_01: Look, whether the market sell off 40 to 60 or not, at the end of the day.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_01: In the history of the markets, they have gone up eight and a half percent year over year in history, and since 1950, they've gone up 10% year over year.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_01: And you can hedge your equities.
• 44:17
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I am always personally 100% invested in equities because I hedge my portfolio using options.
• 44:23
  SPEAKER_01: I actually teach how to do it and I have it automated so that I'm getting trades done for me, protecting my portfolio.
• 44:30
  SPEAKER_01: But again, nobody should be checking their 401k or their iris every single day on their iPhone.
• 44:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's it's silly because you're not selling it anyways.
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_01: So why aggravate yourself and understand the math of the market?
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_01: Eight and a half percent year over year for 200 years.
• 44:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's all you have to remember.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, very good.
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_00: Todd Bubba Horwitz, if you're not familiar with him, go.bubbatrading.com.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned you're gonna play a little bit of golf here in the next couple of days.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm curious, you you just just use sand wedges the whole time.
• 45:05
  SPEAKER_00: What how do you play golf out in a place like Las Vegas?
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_01: When you play at Shadow Creek, which is a northern style golf course that was built in the middle of the desert, that's you need a lot of clubs there.
• 45:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I'm playing at the win.
• 45:19
  SPEAKER_01: I'm taking I'm giving Xander the grand tour this week of some nice courses that the people owe me favors that I get on.
• 45:24
  SPEAKER_00: So oh, very nice, very nice.
• 45:27
  SPEAKER_00: I like to do this towards the end of the shows to get a feel for what's what's going on in the real world because I'm down here in my basement, Bubba.
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um, if you if you were to look out your window, I see you got a window off there just to your right.
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_00: If you look out in the window, what's the weather in Las Vegas like just right now, today?
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_01: Right now it's 65 and kind of cloudy.
• 45:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of weather kind of turned quickly here.
• 45:48
  SPEAKER_01: It was in the hundreds until two weeks ago, and now it's been in the 60s and 70s and even as low as the 50s.
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_01: We we got that little El Nino.
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_01: Ah, yes, the El Nino.
• 45:59
  SPEAKER_01: The two hurricanes changed the weather here quickly, but yeah.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's all right.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_00: I got I'm prepared for it.
• 46:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be ready to go.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_00: Out of boy, out of boy, resilient as ever.
• 46:08
  SPEAKER_00: The National Weather Service is calling for a nor'easter to create hazardous marine and coastal conditions along the mid-Atlantic through midweek.
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_00: Significant coastal flooding, beach erosion possible, another storm system forecast to bring high winds and heavy precipitations to well, I don't know if anybody's listening in Alaska, but uh heavy, heavy precip coming to southern Alaska.
• 46:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, everywhere else looks pretty quiet.
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, check out the map there.
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_00: Elsewhere, relatively benign weather, according to the National Weather Service.
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_01: We need some weather for the grains and the drive mire.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_00: We need a little something.
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_00: We need something.
• 46:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, everybody's busy harvesting right now, you know.
• 46:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's a good time for the for the markets to be quiet.
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_00: Bubba, let's get into some items of mild interest here.
• 46:48
  SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah, there's your temperature.
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_00: See, we're we're hanging right in there.
• 46:51
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, Vegas.
• 46:53
  SPEAKER_00: Vegas doesn't look too bad.
• 46:54
  SPEAKER_00: Nice, uh, you know, not its usual balmy self, but certainly tolerable.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_00: This day in 1512, for all you Protestants out there.
• 47:04
  SPEAKER_00: Martin Luther earned a doctorate in theology, 1512.
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't know they were giving them away that uh that early, 1512.
• 47:13
  SPEAKER_00: In 1945, it's the birthday of John Lithgow, American actor.
• 47:18
  SPEAKER_00: And here, I got a slide for this next one.
• 47:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's uh also the birthday of John Favreau, American actor, director, and screenwriter.
• 47:25
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna save Star Wars, apparently.
• 47:28
  SPEAKER_00: And if you ever watch Seinfeld, if you've seen the one where uh where Eric the clown puts out the fire with his big shoe, and George runs out and runs over the women and children.
• 47:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly it, knocks them to the side.
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_00: And his logic is I guess somebody needs to lead.
• 47:43
  SPEAKER_00: We needed a leader.
• 47:45
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I'm buying that, but uh John Favreau was he played the clown there.
• 47:49
  SPEAKER_00: You're stuck on some clown from the 60s, man.
• 47:53
  SPEAKER_00: And here's one 1987.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_00: You might remember this one.
• 47:56
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 47:56
  SPEAKER_00: This is probably before your time.
• 47:58
  SPEAKER_00: 1987.
• 47:59
  SPEAKER_00: This day was Black Monday.
• 48:01
  SPEAKER_01: The Doc Jones, October 19, 1987.
• 48:05
  SPEAKER_01: Never remember, never remembered.
• 48:06
  SPEAKER_01: I was on the trading floor, big boy.
• 48:08
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_00: 22% decline.
• 48:10
  SPEAKER_00: Uh added up to 508 points.
• 48:13
  SPEAKER_00: That tells you something about the valuations right there.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_00: Todd Bubba Horwitz from uh go.bubbaTrading.com.
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_00: Dude, I know you got to go get somewhere and uh do some do some important things, but thank you so much for spending some time today.
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_00: I appreciate your candor.
• 48:29
  SPEAKER_00: Um it's it's really great.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_00: I've I've enjoying reconnecting with you, brother, and I hope that that maybe we can coax you back on the show again.
• 48:38
  SPEAKER_01: I would love to come back on, you know, because I need to get more fired up.
• 48:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I gotta get that disclaimer going.
• 48:43
  SPEAKER_01: We rolled the disclaimer a number of times, so we are fully disclaimed.
• 48:47
  SPEAKER_01: I would I would love to come back on if you'll have me.
• 48:50
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely, absolutely.
• 48:51
  SPEAKER_00: I can't wait for next time.
• 48:53
  SPEAKER_00: Um, thank you.
• 48:55
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much for taking time with us.
• 48:57
  SPEAKER_00: Todd Bubba Horwitz, go.bubbaTrading.com.
• 49:00
  SPEAKER_00: And also thanks to trade the news.
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is actual news.
• 49:04
  SPEAKER_00: You can actually use use trade the news for news you can use.
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's trade the news for useful news.
• 49:11
  SPEAKER_00: May I also direct you once again, agbol.com.
• 49:14
  SPEAKER_00: You can dig deeper with Ag Bull Intel.
• 49:16
  SPEAKER_00: Take the markets by the hands with Ag Bull.
• 49:20
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm 855-737 F A R M for the details.
• 49:29
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching, everybody.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be back first thing in the morning to start off your Tuesday, and then I'll be talking with Scott Starter from Croptell.
• 49:37
  SPEAKER_00: Can't wait to see you tomorrow afternoon for more Agwak.