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Valspar Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear the LEFTO. What's up? My Ron
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka totagg and Tambou back for another
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: edition of the Leverage Lane Show here on the Ship
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: and Nation YouTube station. Got my guy Alex blikel here
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: with me as always, gonna break down all things valspar Championship.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: He'll have the single entry side covered from a leverage perspective.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I'll be focusing on the MM. We'll go through it
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: as usual where we teach you how to play, not
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: just who to play.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: And my man Alex, We've got some big.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: News the top a little bit show changing because we've
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: got some ideas for today's show and to get into
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: it all. But anchorshey, I mean sorry, at Okha Batilla
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: w D's and he's out. We've got Sam Ryder in
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: he was at TGL, but you know he's not gonna
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: play this week, so no, okhay right off the rip,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: he's ten k over on draftings. How you do, my friend,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that news first.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is really really kind of big news for
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: the Slate. He was one of the more popular guys
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: up top. He was certainly one of the most popular
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: pivots off of Fitzpatrick. We had this like almost perfect
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: dynamic where we were going to be able to talk
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: a lot about the conditional ownership type stuff using ok shape,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: Bridgeman and Fitzpatrick is kind of the the focal point,
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: and all of that's kind of thrown out the window
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: now and we already had Fitzpatrick pushing forty percent ownership.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: Now he's going to be even higher Like this is.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: This is a major major change to the slate and
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: it's kind of cool that it happened literally like three
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: minutes before we went live, because it means that everyone
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: gets to watch you and I kind of sort through
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: what we think this means for the slate on the fly.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: Totally organic. There's there's no way we could possibly have
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: prepped for this conversation.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly, and I think it'll be important for me
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: to get to it, you know, especially we talk about
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: the common build and how he could leverage it, you know,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: we I think everybody knows this already. Look anywhere right now,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see Matt Fitzpatrick, as you mentioned, who's pretty popular,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: but I don't think as many people were going like
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: ax Shay fits, So it was a lot of lineups,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: even though Oxhay was getting ownership. It was a lot
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: of lineups that could go like ax Shay skip the
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: nine k range for example, or something like that. So
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I think it was some interesting stuff there. But this
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: is important too. I don't think people recognize this enough.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I know you guys account for it. We do over
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: at ship at Nation with the stone you'll everybody will
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: see it later tonight. But like the win equity in
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: this tournament, Okhay was what you know, five percent of
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: that six seven percent of whatever you had him at.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: He was a solid number that is going to disperse
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: to those guys closest around him. It makes the guys
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: that are more likely to win more likely to win that,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: you know that, than the others that are that are
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: down the board. So it'll dispurse out some. But we'll
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: talk about that more in a little bit. I got
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: to bring up first before we go back into any
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: more stuff. On the vals bar the comment of the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: week it said over thirty five minutes explaining waves and weather.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: I think we got it.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: This is a great start to the show because, as
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: we say off the top of every show, we teach
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: you how to play, not who to play, and I
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: left the guy's name out going to embarrass him, but
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: just saying it. I think it's still one of the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: most misunderstood concepts in all of dfs, and I think
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: there's another one we'll talk about today. But that's what
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the show is about. We want the beginning to be evergreen.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Last week's topic was wave advantages. I will say this, Alex.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: It was a two stroke advantage to the PMAM, But
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: what people will focus on is still the same dumb shit.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, but you all.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: You need you needed three of each in the winning
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: exact lineup that won the million dollars, So it's bullshit.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: It's not necessarily the case, and we talked to it
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: a ton last weeks, and not to go into it again,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: but just anything you want to add on the Players
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Week doesn't even have to be able to wave advantage stuff.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: I'm just curious if you had anything else on Players
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Week as a whole, because in the end I thought
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: it was actually pretty interesting and I've got a couple
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: takeaways from it for sure.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a conversation that came up in my
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: discord two where you know, the the winning lineup is
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: always a focal point. But also like the part of
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: that conversation I think a lot of people miss is
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: we should have expected the winning lineup to be a
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: three to three or a four to two to the
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: early why, because that's what most people were playing, and
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: so I think they were. If I remember correctly, it
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: was like thirteen percent of lineups had at least four
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: pm AM guys, and there were maybe like three percent
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: of lineups that were five to one in that direction
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: and less than one percent of lineups that were six
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: zero in that direction. So of course it's unlikely that
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: those are the lineups that ended up winning. It makes
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: sense that one of the lineups that came from the
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: other eighty seven percent one, And it's I think then,
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: telling that of that eighty seven percent, what lineup one
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: the one in the in the category that had the
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: least amount of early guys. So I actually do think
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: that the results like really bore that out. And the
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: one thing that was kind of unique about that about
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: that split was even though there was a two stroke advantage,
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: it didn't affect miscuts as much as we would normally expect,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: at least from popular guys. Like most of the popular
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: guys in that early late wave still made the cut,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: and oddly like it also didn't keep them from getting
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: into contention right like we saw Obert for example, leading
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: through two rounds. So it was really weird where there
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: absolutely was this very clear late early advantage, but it
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: didn't it didn't affect the chalky plays as much as
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: it could have, And so I think the early late
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: builds actually kind of got a little bit fortunate in
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: that way, and we didn't quite get the payoff for
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: late early builds that we probably deserved given that, given
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: the way that the actual scoring played out right and.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Good secondary point there, I think that maybe overlooked is
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the other thing is like everyone was he know to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: obviously with the late WD for sure sucked for everybody
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: he played a whole It was kind of an unfortunate event.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: But he's not going to back out unless he has to.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a tough situation. But just to
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: note it, everybody else still made the cut. It was
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: like him a nap out of the top fifteen or
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: something or twelve that didn't make the cut, but not
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: everybody was needed up there, Like only three or four
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: of them actually ended up showing up on the majority
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of winning lineups, so I mean that's part of it
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: as well. But it did lead to a higher six
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: of six, which for you and I typically is not
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: going to be the best.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: But I'll note this here. I mean, people say whatever
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: they want to say.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I know, I gotta I punched a ticket to the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Mega and that's a full pm AM stack and a
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: couple of the comments and I'm gonna segue this.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: It's not some sick brag here, I don't. I mean,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: this is awesome.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: It's nice getting a ticket and getting in early, but
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: just noting it. The Xander Matsiyama thing we talked a
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: lot about, and if you had everybody on Marikawa and
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: see Wu the guy's sandwich right between them were Xander
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: and Matsiama, And then you talked a lot about, Hey,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: if we're gonna go to that type of build, but
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: stay within the common roster construction, and that's gonna be
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: this week's topic, roster construction and lineup selection. The common
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: thought was, well, why don't you continue down the board
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: and see what a PMAM looks like. Well, when you
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: do this up top, and they were lower owned in
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: some places, But this is what's interesting. My lowest owned
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: guy is nine point two two percent. This is what
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I've talked about. The North South build that I got
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: to the Mega last week that didn't pay off was
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: another example of this. I could play high owned cam Jung.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: But where most landed and I'll show you more on
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: this than a second with Giant Squids Megamilli winner, We're
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about that. Where most landed in this was
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the seventy six, seventy five, seventy one's Burgers with Nap,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: with min Wu, with Batia, with all those different guys
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: in that range, and I had none of them. But
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I was able to go with Camjung and Straka as
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: my chalkier options. But there is still no Ludwig, there
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: is no Fitzpatrick, there is no Morikawa, there is no Scatti,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: there is none of those guys. So's it's again, like
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: you always say, it's not just who you play, it's
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: who you don't play. And this is the setup of
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: this here. And I landed on Scott Straca Bridgeman like
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: nobody was landing seventy nine, seventy six, and seventy three.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: They were landing in that seventy one, seventy four, seventy five,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: seventy seven. This kind of splits the difference on that
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: build in a very common build type where most started
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: with Morikawa and see Wu. So I want to talk
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: to you this week about roster construction because if you
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: know the thing about the wave advantage, you know, maybe
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I'm too bold on that, like the most misunderstood. My
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: point going back to that commenter was like people just
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: will say they understand it because of the results oriented
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: set up of what ended up actually happening, but they
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: probably won't use it to their advantage in the future.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: And I think we've talked a ton about this. You
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: are a single entry player, but you're but what people
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: confuse is you're also a one lineup player. So like
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: if you have one ticket in the Mega but everybody
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: else has nineteen, doesn't matter because that's what you're prepped
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: for and ready for, even though there is a bit
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: of a difference, right obviously in a single entry when
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: everyone only has one versus a single lineup where you
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: have won but a bunch of other people have nineteen
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: or thirty seven or whatever the number might be. That's
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the point here, But I wanted to
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: show did you get a chance to look at what
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Giant Squid did. He's obviously a multi time Millimaker winner,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: but he had Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Ludwig. And it's not about
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: not needing Cam Young. That's the interesting segment of this,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: but it's I think the overall portion. He had Straka,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: he had Spawn, and he had Connors, and I think
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of people see it and say, Okay, well
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: it's only really Spawn that was different. But what was
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: your first thoughts and looking at the winning lineup? You
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: nodded your head, so I feel like you've seen this before,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: But what were your thoughts on the winning lineup here?
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I did see the winning lineup. I think it's
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: a really solid lineup. It very clearly has you know, separators,
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: It has high probability plays, It does what we what
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: we say, you know makes a really good lineup. That
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: balance between the guys who can really help you separate
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: and the guys that can help preserve that advantage. What
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: I didn't get a chance to look at was, I
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: know he had multiple lineups, and I didn't get a
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: chance to look at his whole portfolio, which is something
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: that I typically like to do. I think it is
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: a mistake to just look at the winning lineup, particularly
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: when the person who one had multiple lineups, because their
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: strategy wasn't to make this lineup win, it was to
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: have something in their portfolio win, and so it makes
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: sense to look at everything they did. Now, I don't
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: know how many lineups he did have, but two.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: He had two lineups in this tournament. And this is
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: a great point you just brought up. I think it's
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: really important to think about that. I have a deep
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: dive on this, and we're not gonna spend thirty five minutes
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: on it, so we'll keep everybody happy here. We got
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: a lot to talk about with the Valspar. But this
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: is obviously the point of the beginning of the show.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: If you're watching this on playback or replay, the time
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: stamps are below, you could skip immediately ahead to where
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: we start talking about the Chalk lineup for Valspar and
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: how we're gonna leverage that instant Glenury and MM. But
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the review portion is where I think you can learn
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: a lot from and I loved your point there. If
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I see one, I don't just want to look at
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: the winner even if it is one of the best
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: DFS players in the entire world. It's not that it's
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I want to see. Okay, how did they think about it,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: knowing that they had two I could have had two.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: I loved my lineup and it sucked.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I'll show it to you. We'll do a double WHAMMI
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: here four fifteenth. I had Xander Naziama, I used the
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: low owned eight K guy and Shane Lowry. I went
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: all pm AM and I had some of the guys
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: that were really good leverage that kind of just looked
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: from that side of the things as low owned separators Hoguard, Kidiyama, Mitchell.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I know these guys popped in ranks. You and I
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: looked at you some of this stuff. I know you
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: were talking about some of these options last week, so
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: just to bring that together. It didn't work out, But
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: this is how I would play my one lineup. It
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: was exact same thought. If I had to play that
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: five twenty two lineup that won me the ticket, I
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: would have fifty thousand dollars. I'd be fifty thousand dollars richer.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: But going back to Giant Squid and why I think
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: roster construction is important. I think he probably hated this
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: lineup when the cards slipped, but I can kind of
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: see somewhat what he did here. He had a Scotty
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: lineup and a non Scotty lineup. That portion in my
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: brain is how I'm reading this Again. I don't have
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Julian in front of me. He's an awesome dude partner
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: over at sabers him, great guy, fun to hang out
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: with and party and talk to. But just to note this,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: if he went with it with Scotty in one and
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: not in the other, I get that angle.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: But then you look at what ends up happening in
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: a Scotty lineup.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: And we talked about this last week, and we've talked
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: about this all season, yourself included from day one saying
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: this is the Remember it's not just Scotty, it's what
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: does he do for the rest. What are your thoughts
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: on this build, because look at the ownership increase on
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: all the dudes that he kind of had to land
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: on once he went to Scotty.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the lineup that won is the one that deserved
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: to do really well. I'm not a big fan of
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: this one. And we talk a bunch about like this,
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: This concept of conditional ownership. And so when you see
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: these ownerships over here, when you see fourteen percent for
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: nor in fourteen percent for Fouler, like understand that in
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineups, those are probably a lot higher, and especially
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Nora Norn might have been like twenty five percent in
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineup something like that. So he really only had
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: one separator in that lineup, and it was the cheapest
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: and the least likely guy to actually do well in
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: the lineup. So that one, that one definitely was not
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: a lineup that I would love if I had it.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: But uh, it's it's obviously very hard to argue with
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: the process of the guy who won the Millie. So
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: I think we saw just how good he is a
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: building lineup to that other one. That other one is
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: an extremely well built lineup and it deserved to win.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go back to that when I just
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: want to shay, I like this stack seeker as well,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: that you kind of look up just to see and
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: there's no affiliation. You're actually zero with fantasy labs. I
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: just use it because it's easy to sort of see
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: through and go into. But yeah, like and it's I
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: know as people see it's only three and five and
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: four percent, but that's a lot in a tournament with
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: only six hundred and sixty five percent of the lineups
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: had Norn in them and five percent had Ricky in them,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and that sort of thing or close to a four
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: percent whatever it was when I just pulled up. So
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I think that's important to consider as well. But I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: want to go back to his main winner and we'll
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: probably get out of, you know, this segment in the
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: next five to ten minutes. But just to note it,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people looked at this lineup
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and said, okay, kind of just had JJ Spawn and
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Connor separate for him at low ownership, but they didn't
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: even right like Spawn sixty eight, Connor's pretty good at
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: seventy one and eighty four. But just noting it. To me,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: this is where people confuse stuff, though, is in looking
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: for those diamonds in the rough or like where's the
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: low owned leverage and what is the true separation when
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: it comes to roster construction for me, and this is
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: where I think it's another one of the misunderstood DFS
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: concepts because everyone's constructing rosters, but are they focused on
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: roster construction. There's a difference, right, We're all doing it,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: but are you actually thinking about it? And that's clearly
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: to me here he's thinking about it because he to me,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the full separation of this lineup was playing Tommy when
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: everyone's on either Scotty or dropping down to maricau Nobody
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: wanted Rory because of the back, and only fourteen percent
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: wanted Fleetwood. We talk about this all the time. Is
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Fleetwood higher owned on the sheet of the high ownership guys? Yeah,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: he's fourteen percent, but is he really chalk When Marikaua
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: for five hundred bucks less is forty percent. That's quite
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the separator from Moricaua skipping the nine k range all together.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Go there in a second, he has zero of them,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: playing Ludwig from the eight k's as the highest owned guy,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: but not having Cameron Young for example, and again obviously
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Cam Young would have a nice He went on to
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: win the tournament and then the ten, two and eight
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: matters a whole lot more when you see where everything lands,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: because in this tournament, as I said, the separation he's done.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: If you look Morikawa nine k range forty three percent,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: see Wu nine K range thirty one percent, even Henley
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: nine k twenty seven percent. Then you go into the
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: seven k range. Berger is almost thirty So that's where
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: again using Connors, it's Connor's almost ten percent owned, sure,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: but he's not almost thirty percent owned like Daniel Berger.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: And so there's that thought process to it. Min Wu
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Batia two of the next highest own Wait, what are
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: we seeing here, seventy one, seventy five, seventy seven, seventy
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: one at one fourth the ownership seventy five, seventy seven,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: seventy six, seventy four much lower owner. So he's kind
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: of just bounced around the board. And so to me,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: people aren't looking into this enough of the original statement
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: I've made for the longest time, it's not who you play,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: it's how you play them. It's literally a great separation build,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: and not just a lineup built on separation. The separation
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: is in the actual roster construction, not necessarily fully in
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the play, but within the plays. Eight percent versus twenty
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: eight on Burger, fourteen versus forty three on Morikawa, you
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: are still getting it. So hopefully people can understand that
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: and see it from that angle. In a tournament with
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: almost five thousand dollars to buy in and just six
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty seven people. You can still play really
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: good options that others agree are good options, but play
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: them in a unique way to the field. And sometimes
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: it's more important to look at that than it is
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: what all the models and the stats and the different
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: things tell you. And obviously you can combine that all
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: together and make for some really good lineups. Any further
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: thoughts on the giant squid stuff here from you, Alex.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Just on this bill, Yeah, not on this bill. Go
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: back to the uh the Scotty Bille for a second.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: I went in and found the actual numbers here, So yeah, perfect.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I talked about the I guarantee you hated that. What
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: did you say? I sorry to cut out say. And
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: the other thing about it was it was duped to
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I guarantee you hated that. Like he's thinking like maybe
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: I had something with him, but even if it had
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: them in the one, it was a full on chop,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: which I get other people be like, wow, half a
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: million is nothing, you know, say something bad about, but
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: at the time it's like that's not what he's looking
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: for when he's building this.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: Well, so that's actually like an awesome point. So right
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: off the bat, let's talk about, like how a lineup
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: like this gets duped when it has four guys under
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: twenty percent and one at like three percent. The answer
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: is because as soon as you click Scotty, you're like
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: funneled into this much smaller player pool that everyone has
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: to choose from, which is why these conditional ownerships get higher.
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: And so I just ran the numbers. Norn was fifty
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: percent more owned than fifty percent more owned with Scotty
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: than without Scotty. So in this case, like you know,
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: he's fifteen percent owned basically, so he's twenty two and
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: a half percent owned in Scotty lineups something like that.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: And that was pretty much true across all contest types.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: It was true in the Megamili, it was true in
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: the really small single entry with only two hundred and
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: seventy seven people. It exists everywhere because it's not just
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: like you know, the it's not like it's just some
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: psychological effect of oh, if I'm clicking Scotty, I'm more
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: likely to click nor. No, it's that you're literally funneled
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: into this much smaller player pool. You only have so
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: many options of course those guys are going to then
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: be higher on But that means when you're looking at
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: this lineup and saying, like, Okay, I've got four guys
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: under fifteen percent, there's a good chance I won't be duped,
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: or there's a good chance, you know, any of these
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: guys can be separators. No, they can't, because would you
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: need to have this lineup to be great? Is for
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: Scotty to number one, be great? But if Scotty's now
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: helping you to like get close to the top of
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: the leader board, you're now competing with other people who
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: have Scotty and other people who are choosing from this
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: exact same much smaller, much you know, shrunken player pool.
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: And so the fifteen percent are twenty five percent, the
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: ten percent is fifteen to twenty things like that, and
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: so it's just a lot harder to separate within these
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineups.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is the key point, and even
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: you know, Sean brings it up here. So again, this
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: is the true definition of it's not who you play,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: it's how you play. It's being being cognizant of what
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: these plays mean. Like when you're putting something together, think
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: about that next step. If you think Scotty lineup's gonna
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: land more with this on a certain week or whatever,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: you're looking at the Fitzpatrick lineups. And that's why we
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: talk shortly about vaus Bar. When we get to you know,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick and Smotherman or whatever, it ends up being like,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: not only will they both be popular, they'll be very
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: popular together because those lineups just start to blend and
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: make sense. Are to others out there doing tout shows
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: and pick shows and telling you these are great plays
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: and picks, they're not even thinking about any of the
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: stuff that we're talking about, so of course it seems
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: and when you're you know, I know people that are
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: sitting at work on lunch break or at the gym,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: on the treadmill, walking or running whatever they're putting together
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: line it's like, well, I heard Fitzpatrick sounds pretty good
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: to me. Smotherman sounds pretty good to me. Should just
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: throw these guys together. If you're thinking that, so is
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: everybody else. But the fact that they just mesh so
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: easily together is what makes that very common. And then
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: you're not only not getting separation in the lineup, you're
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: not getting separation in the roster construction, which is what
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: we just went through with this build here that I
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: that I showed you for Giants Quid.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I just again just brought this up. I've
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: got to I've got a sheet that does all my
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: conditiontional ownership for me, so I have did his plug
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: in names. But so this is a great question, and
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: it's exactly right. So let's let's compare Scotty with Norrin
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: to Oberg with Norn. In the single entry Oberg was
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: thirty three point ninety four percent, Scotty was sixteen point
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: nine seven percent, So we're talking about literally double, like
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: exactly double the amount of lineups included Oberg than and
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: then the lineups that included Scotty. And yet two point
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: nine percent of lineups had the combination of Scotty and Norn.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: Three point two percent had the combination of Oberg and Norn.
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: So you almost had the exact same combinatorial ownership for
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: Oberg and Noran as Scotty and Norn, despite the fact
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: that Scotty was used half as often as Obert. So
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: exactly right, that's what we're talking about with conditional ownership.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: The conditional ownership for Oberg was a lot lower with
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: Noorn than his overall ownership and the conditional ownership. All right,
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: I should say it the other way around. The conditional
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: ownership from Norn with ober was a lot less than
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: the conditional ownership of Norn with Scotty. And so when
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: you're using someone like Noron, it makes sense to use
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: him in a contrarian way, even if he's one of
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: the more popular options. You can use him in a
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: contrarian way and still then have him be a little
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: bit of a separator if your other guys hit right,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: if Oberg ends up being in contention the way he
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: was in Scotty doesn't play well. Now it doesn't matter
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: how owned Noorn is in Scotty lineups, because those lineups
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: are already dead. You've already beaten those lineups because Noorn
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: or because Oberg is outperforming Scotty so significantly, and now
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: the rest of your lineup is stronger. So you're only
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: competing now with the other Oberg lineups, the other more
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: balanced builds, not the Scotti builds, and there nor it's
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: lower owned and can potentially be a separator for you.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna round this segment out in the next
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: two minutes. I just want to clear up one other
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: thing too. I want to note for people because another thing.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: So Brandon Adams one of the better players across all sports,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: but one of the best players out there and just
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the extremely sharp guy across all categories, industries, whatever you
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: want to say.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: Awesome dude.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: So look at him. He came in said and twenty
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: second and twenty seven thirty first, and so I spent
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: some time on this. I'm not gonna go and do
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: a heavy deep dive here. This is kind of what
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: we do over in Mastermind and things like that, but
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: just noting it in some of the mentorship classes that
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I've gone through with people.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: And talking about it.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: But if you see him, this one lineup is great,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: like eight eight eight eight seven seven five, like talk
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: about a way to play Ludwig and Minwu. Differently, It's like, man,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: you nobody's starting with fits and going that ultra balance
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: and it still spent the money.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: It still had the higher one hundred.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: That's pretty cool, pretty different build, like to look at it,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: but but then you look, he did the Xander Matziama thing.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Of course, these are all the best lineups. I'm just
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: showing you right now.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: To start off, he did a three eight k guy
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: thing with Bobby Mack and can't Ley like if you
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: think about having a portfolio and building to actually win
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: this tournament. He did the Hobland Fleetwood thing where he
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: kind of skipped over the Henley, Sewoos and Morikawas and
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: use the guys above and below, and I'm just gonna
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go through all. There's a couple others,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: you know, starting with the balance build again with Henley,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: the Xander Maatziama again, the Fleetwood, then re eight k's
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: with no cam Young or fits. So if you see
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: how we played it, but that'd be aversell well Man
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: must be nice to somehow end up just completely fading
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Morikawa on a forty three percent withdraw right. Marikawa, Marikawa, Marikawa, Marikaw, Maricaw, Maricawa, Markaw, Morkaw.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: He didn't. He played a portfolio of lineups and played
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: them accordingly. I'm not going to go into this in
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: deep dive, but like Sung Jay, Headeci with.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: Xander in your Moricawa lineups, like even.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: In his Morikawa's he played it differently, And so just
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: going to note if you guys got time on your hands,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: or you're looking to actually get better at pjdfs.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: Hopefully the show is helping you do that.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: That's our number one goal here, but also to go
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: back and see the stuff that we're looking at from
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: players that we know are strong players and then seeing, okay,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: how do they do it? And again, everything that Brandon
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Adams did here is applicable in a three dollars twenty max.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: It's again field size much different, certainly, But I'm saying
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: the concepts and the thoughts of it, and it's not
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: just about the picks and the plays. It's about the
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: roster construction as a whole and finding yourself a way
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: to separate even if you are in a bit of
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: a chalkier type build or a more common type build,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: right you're you're building it a little bit of a
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: different way and having separators put in there and stuff.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: He's got some that are a little more chalky than
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: others in the Moricow ones, but if you look at
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: those top sort of ten lineups that he had, they
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: were all completely different. And it's not just lucky because
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: he faded morecow. He actually had fifty percent. I think
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: if you go here. Brandon Adams his exposure seventy five percent,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Ludwig almost sixty percent. Can't lay the guy you know
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: did what who knows? You know? Not much. He had
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: fifty percent more cow over the field and still made
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: out okay on the week one hundred and eighty four
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: thousand in profit. And that's versus also what he won
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: in satellite entries, right, I'm sure he won money on
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: those based on getting in on tickets and stuff like
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: that too. So love these types of conversations, Alex. I
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a big thing moving forward. If
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: you guys like stuff like this and you want to
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: get in that, shipper Nation can go check it out
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: shibatnation dot com click Winter Circle. See I can find
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: your membership for free or join the Nation. We've got
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: all the single sport offerings as well. All right, let's
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: get to the valspar and let's talk first. I think
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: about just weather and course fit, and if you think
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: course fit is more, it's not really about waves and
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: things like that.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: We talked through that a ton last week.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: But anything you want to add on weather, and then
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: anything you want to talk about on course fit, because
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: I think that's where you're gonna shine this week on
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: this course. There's definitely some good stuff I know you found.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's not a ton of weatherwise that I think
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: is worth noting. I think it's going to be more
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: relevant for Showdown than the main slate because we have
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: a very interesting balance here where the mornings look like
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: they're going to be quite chilly, and you get a
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: north wind and very cool attempts like low fifties to start,
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: especially tomorrow. That can lead to some to some very
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: difficult conditions where even if the wind does pick up
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit as the day goes on, it could
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: end up playing tougher in the morning. I think we'll
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: learn a lot from Thursday in terms of how it's
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: going to play Friday. But the weather looks very similar
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: Thursday as to Friday, so we should expect similar scoring conditions.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: Whatever difference there is between early and late scoring, it
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: is probably going to carry over into Friday. So no
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: real wave advantage anywhere. To the course fit point. This
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: is a really interesting golf course because it does test
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: guys in a pretty unique way. We have a big
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: spike in approach play predictive value and a big spike
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: in putting predictive value less than usual in both distance
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: and accuracy off the tee, And so this is actually
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: a pretty easy, of course, model to understand intuitively, Like
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: sometimes we see, you know, hey, this skill set really
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: really pops and I can't totally explain why that is.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: This one, I think is really easy. Both aspects of
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: driving are less important because there are a couple key
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: holes where number one guys are just taking iron off
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: the tee, and so the t shot itself is about
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: iron skill and not driving skill. But then also we
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: get five par threes here, so you're automatically getting one
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: additional approach play from level playing round to the field
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: and one fewer drive where you can you know, really
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: separate from the field. So that part's really easy to understand.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: And then I think the putting spike is also pretty
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: easy to understand because it's a difficult golf course where
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: you're going to have to make putts to make birdies.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: You're also gonna have to make a lot of putts
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: to save pars, and so the most predictive range of
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: putting is probably somewhere between like five and fifteen feet,
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: and you're gonna get a lot of puts from that
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: range both for birdie and par this week, which is
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: a little bit different than some other courses where a
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: lot of the birdies come from tappins and a lot
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: of the par saves come from you know, two putts
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: from thirty feet where there's no stress on the par putts.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: So more putts from the predictive range leads to a
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: spike and putting predictive value.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think one thing you know, people like to
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: bring up when it comes to putting. Obviously we talk
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: about a lot more in Showdown, Right, people can bring
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: it up all the time in PGA Showdown saying like, hey,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: so and so had a great round on approach, you
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: just couldn't find it with the putter, got to move
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: back to them. Here. Is there anything else you can
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: sort of lead when when you're discussing putting, just about
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: how people can because like what people will look at
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: is obviously just like currently putting stats, like who's a
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: good putter, but those players gonna have bad weeks putting
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: and somebody else can just pop or you know, if
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: guys that at this type of tournament, especially with the
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: greens and the way things are, that's like you it's
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: hard to make birdies, so when you make putts, I
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: mean obviously anything you make is gonna be pretty valid
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: and look good on the stat sheets. There's anything more
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: you can add to the putting conversation.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think putting's a very kind of almost fun
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: modeling discussion because it it touches on a lot of
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: like key mathematical points. So the first one is just
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: like if you are just purely trying to model putting,
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: and you want the most predictive model possible, where your
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: only goal is to predict the strokes gained putting for
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: this player in the next event, you need a pretty
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: large sample. You can't be looking at the last three
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: events or the last two events or anything like that.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: You need something like, you know, minimum last forty four rounds.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: What we use is like a decay weighted three hundred
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: and sixty five day look back, where I think we're
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: probably using like the last five years, and so every
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: three hundred and sixty five days, the weight of that
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: event doubles as you get closer and closer to quote
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: unquote recent form. So it's a really really massive sample
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: that you need to maximize putting. What we can then
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: do is just people who are doing our own research
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: and looking to try and get even better than the model.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Is to look at what the player has done in
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: the most predictive ranges lately. Because essentially the reason why
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: putting is so difficult in terms of like finding signal
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: from recent form is that what we're measuring how many
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: putts went in compared to how many should have gone
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: in is not reflected, is not reflective of the actual skill,
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: which is how well is he hitting his line, how
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: well is you know, his how dialed is his speed
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: on the greens, how how well is he aligning every
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: single putt. We don't get those answers from the actual results.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: We can potentially get those answers from watching and just seeing, like, Man,
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: every single putt he's missed today really look like it
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: should have gone in. I'm going to play him next
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: round in showdown because i think they're going to fall.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: That's a risky type of analysis because you're going to
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: be wrong quite often because putting is so volatile, but
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: it also can sometimes, you know, really pay off. But
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: I think the the other thing to look at is, like,
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: let's take a look at Zander for example, in the
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: in the final round. You can see that he gained
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: a lot of strokes, and importantly, he gained a lot
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: of strokes because he made putts that he should make.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: So fifteen, sixteen, seventeen all were very good puts, puts
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: that he could have missed, but they're not easy putts.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: He made those. He made a much longer one on eighteen,
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: so gain point eighty five strokes, and that one made
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: a bomb on number six to save par like, throw
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: that out the window, But that to me is an
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: indication of someone who was rolling the ball back that
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: day than in previous days where let's see, I think
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: it was day yeah, so day two he made bombs
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: on one, four and eight, So he gained this basically
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: the same amount of strokes on day two as he
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: did day four, but day one, all of the gains
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: came from bombs that you're not going to count on
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: him making the next day. In day four, he made
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: a handful of putts that are just much more indicate
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: indicator that are just much better indicators that he was
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: actually putting the ball well, and that type of putting
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: will continue. So it's it's a bit of an inexact
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: science there's a bit of like almost artistry to analyzing putting.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: But I think my biggest point here is like, if
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: you want to just rely on models and rely on numbers,
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: you need large samples. You can't be looking at Okay,
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: this guy has gained strokes putting in three straight events,
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: and therefore he's going to be good. It doesn't work
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, speaking of x and a couple quick notes, One
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: insane how well he finished for where it was even
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: a moment there when those guys had to ride through
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen, seventeen eighteen, you're like, WHOA, Xander's in the
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: clubhouse right now, and you can see his odds dropping
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: to like even I think it was got his you know,
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: twelve to one. I saw at one point it was
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: like he was once he was in there. Maybe these
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: guys faltered down the stretch. But for how bad he
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: played on Saturday Sunday, from what it looked like to
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: how it actually again, the putter helps, but he should
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: make putts. He's Andrey can do that. So things like
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: that that kind of worked in his favor of those irons,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: and everything looked quite off at times over Saturday Sunday,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: But a secondary note on him relating to the valspar
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I did see one of his interview questions, but just
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: a tidbit, but just noting it. He said that it's
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: nice to have greens that are actually green. They've had
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: some water, you know, coming in things like that, coming
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: into the week where we've got some rain. So maybe
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: we can hold some of these putts this time around.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: And again, like you said, he had some some putts
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: that he hold for sure. But this is like for everybody.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: So when people are saying, well, this person sucks at putting,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: or this person sucks at putting, it could be a
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: very small number or small sample or whatever that might be.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: But there's a chance you could find some of those
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: guys making some putts this week. So again, why I'm
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking at, you know, from standard you know,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: perspective above roster construction, what the field's doing. So let's
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: use that as a segue to get into it. We
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: had the ax Shay conversation off the top. I think
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: it just leads to more Fitzpatrick. But now I think
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: you do see people get to a little bit more Hobland,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit more Zander, a little bit more Bridgeman
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: who was already getting the ownership piled onto him there.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: So how do you sort of see this playing out
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: and what does the chalk build down the board from
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: you know, fits down however you want to look at this,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: I think it's pretty clear.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: What does that look like to you?
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: And then any anything else that you see from the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: ax Sha batiya withdraw fallout batiya.
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: So if we if we think all the way back
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: to h to last year, one of the one of
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: my favorite like examples of how we can use conditional
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: ownership to advantage came from last year Scottish Open and interestingly,
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick was kind of the major chalk and there were
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: two guys around him that were very clear pivots. There
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: was Ryan Fox and Harry Hall. And what we ended
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: up seeing was there's a very like clear pattern that
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: the field's views some guys as pivots off of a
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: certain player or they play that certain player, and there's
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: not a lot of combining the two. And so what
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: we saw that week at the Scottish was people used
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: Hall and Fox together significantly more often than they used
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: either of them with Fitzpatrick. So both of those guys
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: were pivots off of Fits. The combination of the two
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: pivots was significantly higher owned than using the Chalk with
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: one of his pivots. We had the like exact same
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: dynamic shaping up here where both Akshay and Bridgemen were
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: clear pivots off of Fitzpatrick. So we might have been
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: able to get like a really really nice combinatorial ownership
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: discount on fitzplus Akshay or fitzplus Bridgeman. I think that's
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: probably out the window now because it's now just Fits
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: and Bridgeman. I think all the guys around them are
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: going to get a little bit more ownership, So Hovelin
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: will probably get two to three more percentage points of ownership,
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: same for JT and Can't Lay and Speak, maybe even
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: Griff and Brooks Koepka. But I think we're mostly just
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: going to see a lot of that auc Shay ownership
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: go right to Bridgman. Why because so much of the
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: auc Shay ownership, like the Bridgeman ownership, is this is
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: my favorite play other than Matts Fits, other than Matt Fitzpatrick.
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: It's my favorite way to pivot off of Fitzpatrick. And
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: those people are probably still thinking I want to pivot
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: off of Fitzpatrick and now the next most likely guy
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: that they go to is Bridgeman. So I think the
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: biggest thing we're gonna see is Bridgeman could end up
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: pushing you know, thirty thirty five percent instead of the
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: twenty two percent that we hadn't projected at previously in
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: single entries.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, stay tuned to the end. My leverage lane will
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: cover some more on this as well. We did get
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: some breaking news too. Rory's Master's dinner menu came out,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: you know, real quick. You know, people love the food here.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Listen to these appees. Man rock shrimp tempura with a creamy,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: spicy sauce, bacon wrap dates and then he's got grilled
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: elk sliders with a caramelized onion jam and a roasted
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: garlic aoli. Get yourself a yellowfin tuna carpaccio for the
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: first course, a wag you filet mignon for the main course,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: or seared salmon, and then a sticky toffee pudding for
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: the dessert. That's that's pretty interesting. Roy's doing a big there,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: so congrats to him on a grand Slam dinner that's
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: not the Denny's Grand slam. I'll tell you what that's
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: that's a good one.
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: That peachin ricotta flatbread, that sounds delicious.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: I skip that, but it's actually incredible.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: And once I saw goat cheese and the bacon rap dates,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: I was much higher on moving it up because it's
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: the peach and rakota flatbread with balsamic, hot honey and basil.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: That is nice right there. I love that.
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: So if you want a green jacket, what would be
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: the one thing you had to put in yours?
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Man, that's a good question. I'm a big beef short
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: ribs guy, so I'm thinking I would go to short
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: ribs instead of the classic like strip bloind or whatever.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: I might go to a t bone though, get a
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: little t bone action there, so probably definitely would be beef.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Though beef would be one of the main courses for me.
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: It would I would honor Augusta by putting a chicken
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: pimento cheese sandwich on that list, because if for anyone
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: who hasn't been in the Master's maybe you're going for
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: the first time, maybe you've already gone before, but you
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: didn't do this. One of the best parts of the
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: experience is that they have these like incredibly cheap you know,
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: menu items that you just go in you get it.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: It takes two minutes to go through the line and
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: it costs like two fifty a sandwich or something like that.
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: And they have a very famous just like a plain
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: chicken biscuit, and then they have a very famous, just
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: plain pimento cheese sandwich. There's nothing but pimento cheese in
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: between the bread. The move is to get them both.
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: Take out the piece of chicken from the biscuit, put
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: it inside of the pimento cheese sandwich, and it becomes
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: the most delicious thing that you'll ever eat for four dollars.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: So I would elevated Maine that includes all of that,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: but like it's an actually it's like a chicken stuffed
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: breast with the pimento and then like elevate everything it
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: versus throwing the sandwich on there.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: That's what I would think.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: But it's hilarious you went that route.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: No, that's what I would want. The sandwich. I would
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: want to be as true to the I Guessa experience
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: as possible. I can have other courses that are are
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: much more upscale and fitting for the for the Master's dinner,
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: but that one would have to be on there just
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: in its truest form.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: We'll get back to the golf in just one second,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: but you should know me by now. It'stat Canada. Nothing
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: when it comes to like food. It's like my stuff
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: for hockey and all that stuff, like we'll watch the
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Olympic hockey, we'll watch the Four Nations that type of stuff.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: But there's no poutine going on the menu. That's like
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: the most basic shit you can get. It's like a
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: Canadian tradition. If you haven't tried it, try it. It's
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: it's not that good. So going back to the golf,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: I do think you nailed the Bridgeman piece there. People
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: already liked him anyway, and what is going to happen
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: I think too. I gotta note this as well, Fitzpatrick,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: which we'll get to how to like what the actual
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: lineup looks like in a second. It's still gonna start
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: with Fits, I think, but you could even see like
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Fits and m Bridgemen now go together if people are
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: looking to go that run. I still think the eight
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: K range has some guys that are pretty popular there.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: But in one second, the other note is when people
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: don't like Fitzpatrick. Once they find out that everyone starts
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: to hate on him because of his ownership, then they
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: think Bridgman is the good option, or they say or
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go up to Zander. And I think
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: this is another like just grand scheme overviewpoint about the
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Xander conversation. He's already getting ownership, by the way, like
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: twenty percent something a little more whatever you end up
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: getting them at. But one thing that's very common in
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: pgadfs that kind of plays in almost every week except
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: maybe the certain randoms, is if there is any type
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: of upper six k range, well, it never gets super popular,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: and while people aren't that high on it, what does
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: happen is as the week goes on, people get higher
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: on it. So now when you have a perfect storm
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: of akshay wd, they already like Xander. If they're not
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: going down to Fits and Bridgeman, they'll go up to Xander.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: It doesn't I mean, maybe it's Hoblin for you. Hoblin
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: could open up there now for you or something like that.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: But just to note it, I think people will be
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: even more comfortable with Xander now when they see down
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: in the lower sevens and upper six is all the
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: names like Novak and Brennan and Michael Kim and Lee
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: Hodges and Eric Cole and McCarthy and Howie and all
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: those guys now fit a Xander line. They already did,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: by the way, but now that people kind of have
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: to move it around, it's likely that somebody could say, Okay,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: well I heard smotherman' is gonna be popular. Let me
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: just take him down to I'm just making this up
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: on the spot, but exact money of like who would
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: it be. He's seventy four, Let's say you take him
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: down to a Kenaya or something like that, or whenever,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: someone who's still be lower owned, but it's now they
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: get to have Xander up top or something like that.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: So I just see that stuff happen so often, and
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: it opens up more as the week goes on.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about that chalk build bill real quick, tim.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: I've got one more point here on where to expect
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: the ax Shay ownership to go. The last question that
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: I think people should be thinking through when they're trying
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: to answer this question for themselves is who was on
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Akshay initially?
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: We all have our own processes, we all have our
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: own things that we care a little bit more about
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: than other things. So, you know, some people are all
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: about recent forms. Some people like myself are more about
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: long term baselines, things of that nature. So who is
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: on ak shay? People who really care about recent form,
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: people who want to play, Guys who have already shown
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: them this year that they can contend, they can win,
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: they can play a lot of really good golf. They're
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: they're very clearly informed. So you know, that type of
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: person is much more likely to go to a Bridgeman
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: than a Patrick Cantley. That type of person is much
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: more likely to go to Saha Tagala or Rio Hasatanay
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: rather than you know, JJ Spahn or Keegan Bradley or
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: Nick Taylor someone like that. So, uh, that's I think
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: the final point. And so when you're thinking about okay,
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: how can I adjust differently than than everyone else? If
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: if you were somebody on Akhay and you're saying, okay,
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: I don't get to play accha anymore, how can I
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: make sure that I don't just make the same swap
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: that everyone else is making. I think that's the answer
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: is is figure out, you know what type of pivot
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: everyone else is going to make who's in your position,
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: and then try and pivot in a different way, try
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: and go to somebody else that most people aren't going
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: to say, Oh, you know what, this guy actually is
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: a good pivot off of Aksha because they never initially
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: would have gone to him.
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: I love that call out.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Actually, you know, really unique way to think of it,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: and it seems obvious, but it's one that would most
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: would overlook, is what you said. It's like it's so
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: automatic to say if I was in on auction, it's
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: because of that form. Bridgeman and Fitzpatrick fit it perfectly,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: and then Xander showed up has shown up pretty much.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Here in the past.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Obviously Hoblin last year's winner, Like it's all right there
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: for you. But I think people are clearly going more
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: the recent form route than the historic route. But even
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: like a guy like Hoblin could fit it, but I
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: don't think they'll click it. But like he won last year,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: he's on a thirteenth thirteenth run, but neither of those
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: really popped at a SIGI and another big one in
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: the players, and so it's like maybe he's not as
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: common where people would go to like a Xander and realistically,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: Holin could be the better option there. So little things
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: like that are our ways to stand out and get
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: different and just find your unique build. What are you
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: seeing as the common build? If we're talking like a
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: single entry this week that people will land on most
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: commonly that starts with fits. I see a couple things
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: that I wanted to bring up and then get your take.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: One is the Smotherman conversation. Yep, looks like he's three
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: x owned pretty much everyone that's the exact same around him.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, this is not the show for it
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: because it's leverage Lane, not narrative street. This guy knows
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: that his wife is due on Monday. People have heard
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: about the Smotherman baby, you know on the way, et cetera.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: You know it's gonna be born on Monday or do
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: on Monday. First of all, that doesn't mean it's gonna
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: be born on Monday. Could be two weeks late for
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: all we know. Second of all, he knows that, and
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: he's still at the tournament. Third of all, he could leave,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: But like the way people just move off it, that's
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: like the worst reason to move off of him. In
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: my opinion, I think the word I think the best
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: reason to move off of him if you're doing it,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: is because he's three x owned thirty guys around him
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: that basically all project very similar on median projection and
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: all have same ceiling or more. But go ahead and
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: talk to me about this because I see Smotherman. And
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: then the one last thing I want to note was
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: just that eight K range factor of at least Saheath
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: and Rio of two guys there that I think are
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: popping a little bit. But there is other dudes in
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: there where I think people are not just playing the
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: one eight k guy this week. And then they also
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: you know, recency bias factor here what worked last week? Oh,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: if you had fans and Ludbig and Cam Young, they're
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: all in the ak range. Okay, even JT was in
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: the ak range last week. So I think people see
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: that too, and some of that carries over as well.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: But I'll get your thoughts.
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So in terms of where people are going, I'm
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: actually going to start this conversation in a very unique way,
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: and that is to start with what people are not doing.
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: We don't have anybody under seventy four hundred dollars projected
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: for double digit ownership, and we don't have anyone even
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: coming close to double digit ownership in single entries below
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: seventy four hundred dollars. There's a massive, massive, massive tear
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: break when you go from McGreevy, Smotherman, and Meisner down.
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: So those three are all going to be very popular,
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: especially Smotherman. I At the moment, we still have Smotherman
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: projected for twenty six percent and mcgree v and Meisner
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: are both at fifteen percent. This is another instance where
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: it wouldn't shock me if McGreevy and Meisner end up
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: being in line or even a touch higher than Smotherman,
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: just because it it does seem like the entire industry
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: is recognizing Smotherman as a v chalk and the and
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: not the entire industry is recognizing McGreevy and Miser. So
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: there might be enough people who think, ooh, I'm getting
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: a really nice, sneaky pivot here with McGreevy or Meisner,
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: and then you realize, oh, crap, no, I no, I
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: was not sneaky at all. That's what everyone was thinking.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: And and maybe I'm gonna add quickly.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: There that was Harris English last week, So good, good,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: good call it on this because that's the exactly exist.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: So the last week everyone thought, well, if it's Nap
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: and if it's Burger down below, and if it's Batia
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: and those guys are all there, Batiya, I keep screw
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: up the name, just noting it, but just saying it,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Like if it's those guys in that range, people think
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: they find the next sneaky guy, and then it turns
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: out and like Toots mcboots dfs there says could could
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: happen where it's it's it's little things like that, where
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: it's like, okay, he loses a little bit, but then
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: it lands right onto the other two that others are
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: currently just talking about, but they're secretly clicking them and
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: sometimes more than smother man. Not to cut you off,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: but go ahead. I think that was a really good
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: point one.
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: We saw it in a huge way at the opening
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: week this season at the Sony Open, when Rico Hoey
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: was projected as major chalk, Girard was projected as like
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: the secondary chalk to Hoey. Gerard ended up massive chalk
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: and Howei ended up slipping through the cracks a little
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: bit because everyone was like, oh my god, I don't
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: want to play Hoey at this massive ownership. We might
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: get the same sort of effect here with Smotherman. Where
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: is anyone going to be like, very confidently, energetically enthusiastically
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: playing a twenty six percent Smotherman. Now we're projecting higher
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: than most of the field, as we often do in
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: our single entry, but even if that's fifteen to twenty percent,
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: is anyone like really enthusiastic about a twenty percent Smotherman
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: who might have to miss the weekend because his wife
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: goes into labor. That seems a little bit iffy. So
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: that's an ownership projection that really could change for us
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: in our final edge us tonight. But for the rest
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: of the common build, I think the main point that
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to make with the fact that there's very little,
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: you know, ownership concentrating anywhere under seventy four hundred, is
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: a lot of lineups are going to try to make
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: seventy four hundred the week link the lowest spot in
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: the lineup, which obviously then means more balanced build. So
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: I can see a lot of lineups, as you said,
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: starting with Fitzpatrick, starting with Bridgeman, and then trying to
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: hit the eight k range hard in the seven K
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: range hard where maybe they have like you know, Bridgeman, Hisatune,
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: Thigala Connors and then they go to McGreevy and Meisner
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: or something like that, or Smotherman and Pierson, Coody, things
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: of that nature. So I think that's the type of
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: build that we're going to see a ton and that
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: will keep Xander's ownership in check a little bit. But
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: that can also pretty easily just be you know, Xander
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: instead of Bridgeman or Fitzpatrick, and then you just take
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: one of those eight K guys and you make them
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: a low AK guy or a high seven K guy.
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: So it's not like it's a big giant challenge to
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: get to Xander the way it's been a big challenge
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: to get to Scotty in the past few weeks.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: And then so with that AK range there, like I
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: could see it, I don't have it exactly in front
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: of me right now, but like basically Fitzpatrick, the Gala, Rio, Smotherman,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: pick one, if not multiples of those other guys in there.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: But I mean kind of looks like a one nine, two,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: eight three sevens type of situation.
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that would be that would be my
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: main guess, and then let's see, can we also how
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: does that change? So if we if we put Fitzpatrick
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: and Bridgeman in together, we're left with seventy six fifty,
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: So that could be you know, two nine K guys,
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: three sevens and one eight instead, So there there are
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: multiple variations. But I think regardless, most lineups are going
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: to be seven k's and nine k's or eight k's
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: and a whole lot of Hovelin and Schofley and then
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: not a whole lot of six K guys.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I wonder if people like just thinking about Pendrith
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit there, but it looks like they kind
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: of want to get up to re. It's if you
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: can get to Rio in there. I think it's even
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: if you put like Smotherman in one of the other two,
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: you kind of land in that seventy two hundred dollars range.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Who do you have super popular down there right now?
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: And I get no one's super popular, but anybody popping
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than others in the seventy one
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: seventy two range that you think can stand out and.
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: Not really I mean, the let's say, is so John
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Perry like seven percent at seventy three hundred, and then
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: they are a couple at five percent Michael Brennan seven percent,
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: and that that feels maybe a touch high to me
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: just because this is this is not the course for
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: his skill set.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: But so then I would say this. You know, another
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: thing that I see is like Homa and Clark, and
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: so like the build that I'm seeing too. That also
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: fits is if you have something like Fitzpatrick the Gala rio,
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: pick two of the McGreevy, Meisner and Smotherman, and it
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: lands you in the eight K range. And if you
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: go up one and down one, you could it be
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: like Aaron Raie or McCarty or smallier Bez And if
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: you go up it could be like Wyndham, Homo Rasmus
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: like in that range.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: So that kind of build does stand out more.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: And then obviously if you say okay, then I just
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: won't play Fitzpatrick, I'll play Bridgeman instead. It gets you
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: like a little bit more money, but you do still
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: end up on two to three eight K guys or
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: the upper seven K range. But right now it looks
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: like the upper seven range. So if you're talking about
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: guys like McCarty, Smally Bez Coody, Rogers, Thorborn, durn Olison,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: those guys, they look a lot less owned than that
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: mid seventy four hundred dollars seventy five hundred dollars range.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: And then of course once you go seventy three hundred
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: and below, when you've got guys like Glover and Sung,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Jay Mackenzie, Hughes, Tom kim Rico, Kevin Roy McCarthy, all
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: those guys not really getting played. And then the upper
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: sixes do actually have I don't know, ten to twelve
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: guys that are gonna project pretty solid or similar to
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: the lower sevens. So if you can get that route,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: I think that's another solid way to go as well
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: anything else on the common build that you want to
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: cover there.
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the more we've talked through this, the more I
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: think I need to really bump the ownership. Boost the ownership,
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: I should say of this like eighty six hundred to
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: ninety one hundred dollars range, let's say even nine thousand dollars.
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: I think Hasatsune, spawn Thigala, Nikolay and Connors are gonna
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: end up soaking up a lot of that Akha ownership
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: simply because h anyone who again, Like, let's let's think
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: through someone who was playing Acja. They're playing Akhay largely
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: because they have a lot of conviction on him. They
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: chose Akha already over Bridgeman or Fitzpatrick or Holin. They
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: don't necessarily want to pivot to somebody, so they're gonna
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: go to someone else that lets them then make it
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: two v two instead of a one v one. And
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: so I I think we'll see a lot of that
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: auction ownership go to Bridgeman, and then we'll see a
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: lot of that auction ownership go to Connor's Nikolai Thikala
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: spawn Hissatsune, and in those instances, they then get to
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: upgrade the weak link of their lineup to someone that
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: they feel more confident about, and they're gonna be They're
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: gonna be happier with that two v two than any
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: one v one that they can find. And so I
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: think all of that group to a spawned Thigala Nikolai Connor's,
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: I need to really up their ownership for this last roun.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: This fits as well, my man, Timmy Dublin. But I think,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: like again, you'll just see more one nine K multiple
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: eight k's again the recency bias factor is huge as well.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: But this fits fine, but fits fine.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: Get it. You know, bat Fitzpatrick is gonna.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Be very popular, and though if there is gonna be
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: two nine k's, most certainly Matt is gonna be one
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: of them. So anything else on leveraging it, I know,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: like when I get to my leverage lane, I'm gonna
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: talk a ton of different ways that I think you
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: could do it, and I've got one thing in particular,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: but you know, just some of the builds and stuff
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: that we talked about, kind of like those pockets and
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: using them obviously linked two different styles of builds that
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: you can do on this late like skipping the eight
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: k range, skipping the nine k's using an up guy above,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: and going into the nines. I think more often than
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: not you're seeing people fade the six k range entirely.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: I think this week you could play two to three
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: of them quite easily. Like it's it's very possible, and
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: there's just not a ton of difference between the lower
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: sevens and the upper sixes alone. And on top of
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: the fact of what could be the outcome of guys
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: like Smotherman and McGreevy and those, especially if they're gonna
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: be chalk where could be that as well. And then
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I think the other interesting thing would just be like
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: a really bad go back to Brandon Adams from last week,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: is like, if people are gonna commit to that mid
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: eight K range, are they gonna over commit to it?
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: Probably not.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: And you're you know, now that you've got all the
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: options in the world, are people really gonna want to
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: fade Zander and Hovelin? And you know, can't lay Griffin
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: on top of the main guys in Bridgeman and and
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Fits and those other guys that we talked about. So
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: you know, just some of the other thoughts there. Do
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: you have anything else you want to add for leveraging
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: the common build.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: I honestly I don't want to talk too much about
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: leveraging the common building because that is my leverage lane.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: So we'll get there when we get there. But the
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: last thing I'll say is, I actually also think one
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: thing we didn't say is going to be somewhat popular.
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: We're going to see some four eight K, two seven k's, no.
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: Nine or tens because that whole range, like I just
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: mentioned Connor's Nikolai Thigala Satsune spawn. It's very easy to
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: start a lineup with four of those five and then
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: that leaves you exactly with seventy four hundred left or
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: seventy five hundred left or seventy six something like that,
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: and so that puts us right into that really chalky
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: seven k range as well.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're starting with Connors in that at nine
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: k flat again, you'll be really if you if you
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: land on the exact two seventy four venty five hundred
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: dollar guys, it's gonna be a bad lineup overall. But
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: it depends on your field size and you're buying amount.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: If you're in something like a thirty one eighty with
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: one hundred people, I'm not saying it's great. I'm just saying, like,
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: I get how that would still be quite different than
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: what the field's doing.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: But remember, whoever, if if even if it's.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: Only five people in that tournament that to this type
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: of build, you're probably very close to those five people.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: So you did really exit you know what we all
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: talk about, Like everyone starts in one room and then
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: you're trying to exit to the main, the final room,
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: the final boss where all the money lands. It's like
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: you'd still be going with a crew along that way.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: To Alex's point of many people that are going to
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: land on that similar build, so I would look to
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: get different in other ways. It sounds like both of
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: us have that covered. When we get the leverage lane
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: at the end our lanes for the week, let's talk
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: quickly about one and done. We didn't hit it hard
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: on the show last week. We ended up texting afterwards
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: and rolled out Scotty. Our thought process being like, if
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: other people are going to these other options and get
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: a good Scottie week out of it, obviously it is
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: still the most amount of money. Why not, It's not
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: a segmented version or anything like that. Any extra thoughts
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: on the Scotty conversation quickly and then what we want
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: to do for this week and one and done or
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: how we're seeing it.
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: I thought it was a smart move. It just didn't
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: work out. One and done has been really rough for
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: me so far this year, for us so far this year,
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: and we still have plenty of time, but we got
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: to start making some better plays.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, can I add to that that this is a
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: good one? Actually, I sent this in our discord today.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'll throw it over in the Blick discord as well.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I thought it was really interesting and it's really not
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: specific to the one and done you're in. I know
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: for sure that people look at it from like Yo
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Mayo's one and Done is different than the splash one
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: that Rick route runs because it's segments. So like I
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: was gonna say, am I Rick run good ones? I
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: didn't use Scotty or Rory last week because it was
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: the last tournament of the segment, of the first segment,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: and I was so dead on that segment.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Why would I bury a good option?
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Now I can have Scotty and Rory in the same
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: segment somewhere along those lines, right, So I just want
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: to see this just one second. Here, I have it posted,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: I just gotta go back one or two messages and
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: find it. So anyway, Rick had posted this out earlier
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: in the season and I'd saved it, and I try
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: and give people some good motivation Alex along the way
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: as much as we can. I think mindset is a
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: huge thing. You know it from playing professional golf. It
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: matters in dfs as well. If you have a bad
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: mindset and you're just chasing into the weekend and showdown contests.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: You're probably going with a lazy approach.
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: I know you could still win money, but you're probably
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: not putting in the same amount of effort. You lost
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: a six of a six turned into a five or
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: six at the end thanks to Kiddiama or Lowry or
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: some loser that you played, and you're like, damn, I
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: had both of them, by the way in my Mega.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: So you don't know, as you'll put good money behind it.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: You put good money behind the money that you entered.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: It's bad money you're now putting in. But Rick had
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: posted this for one and done last year. The user
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: that won the fifty k and earned twenty four million
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: plus didn't look that crazy, he said. I admit I
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: was expecting to see fifteen winners and countless six figure paydays,
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: but that was not in fact the case, and I'm
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: mad living here. But some of them just to clear
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: up the timeframe and speed it up. But he says
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: he actually was below average for the first one third
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: of the season. In fact, he'd earned just under one million.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Heading into the Masters. He had like no money on
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: the go.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: He gets the winner at the Masters, the winner at
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: the RBC Heritage the winner at the Truest, the win
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: at the Memorial, and the winner at the Travelers. So
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: in about the next ten events he finds five winners,
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: and I know this is like, you know, oh, Landers,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: that must be nice, found five winners, but just showing
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: you're not actually dead because of how much these signature
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: events and majors matter. After that, what's crazy? This guy
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: still won by two and a half million dollars. That
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: was the first place total amount. He had a one
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: to seventy, a ninety, a one to twenty. Fitzpatrick did
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: get him seven thirty, but then he got a zero,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: a zero, a two eighty one, and a five hundred
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: to end, Like he didn't even have any good scores
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: to end out the season either, and he's still won
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: by two and a half million.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: So it really is.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: This one. So you're telling me there's a chance, and
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: don't forget my friend Kevin Garnett. Anything is possible, and
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: you check it out there like that. That is the
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: case where he had nothing going on in the beginning,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: nothing going on at the end. But with how many
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: signature events we have still, I know they were kind
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: of hoping to get away from those sounds like rollapp
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: is gonna move with the needle in the right direction here,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: but just noting that with the majors, that's where the
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: money lies. And if you can pick five winners out
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: of those, you can be in really good shape. That's
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: like twenty million dollars just on five winners, you know,
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: sixteen million ish on four winners. So any extra thoughts
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: just on that but not dead yet, is the point. Yeah.
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: By the way, I loved everything that roll Up had
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: to say, so I think he's gonna be like a
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: massive blessing for the tour. And when I first heard
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: about like this condensed schedule and they're trying to go
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: to this quote unquote scarcity model, I was pretty concerned.
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: I love every single change that I'm hearing about. So
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: that's all really really cool, And I can't wait to
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: get to that new schedule because I think it's gonna
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: be significantly better than what we have right now. And
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: in terms of one and Done, honestly, like the changes
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: are going to be amazing for one and Done, because
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: the issue with one and Done right now is the
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: signature events, the players, the majors, they're kind of all
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: that matter. Like weeks like this, they're very very fun weeks.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: They are they have the potential to be really fun
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: from like a game theory standpoint, because there are so
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: many fewer great players and so you know, you you
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: potentially can get like way off the board with someone
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: down the line and take a chance on being way
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: ahead of the curve on an up and coming player
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: in a way that you can't really do in signature
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: events because you're just sacrificing too much. But that doesn't
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: really help you here because you're not The potential game
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: just isn't that high, because the most you can win
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: is like, you know, the equivalent of a fourth place
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: finish in a signature event. So it's these kinds of
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: weeks are frustrating from one and done standpoint. I think
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: the main thing is just because we're further along in
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: the season doesn't change the fact that we still probably
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: want to play a lot of these guys in signature events,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: and so I still want to make sure that I'm
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: not you know, burning Zander or Hobland or if it's Patrick,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: I almost think you can throw Bridgeman in that Bridgeman
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: might be like the best player that I'm willing to
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: play this week, it's a really kind of tough decision.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: And then the other point is we're very much at
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: the part of the season where everyone out there should
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: kind of be making their own one and done decisions
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: based on where you're sitting the structure of your contests.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: As you just mentioned, I think one of the main
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: points to make is like you got to know whether
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: or not your contest has segments or not, because you
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: should be really trying to mag I'm in like a
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: pretty high stakes want and done with a good buddy
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: of mine who's in my discord, and we were doing poorly,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: so like we already have a planned that we're going
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: to spend one of our segments on Scotty, Rory Shoffley,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: and either Rom or Bryson, like all together that's going
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: to be the full segment. And obviously, like we wouldn't
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: have done that if we were in position to win
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: the first segment by using or Rory there. So, yeah,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: we're at the point of the season where I think
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: there's almost a ceiling to how helpful we can be
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: when talking about specific players in the one and done selections,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: and more we just want to be talking about like
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: these are the kind of variables that you should be
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: thinking about when making your decision.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you just have to point there. And I think
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: people are like, again, it's not DFS, and like we
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: could be splitting up the segment money, but that still
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: be like the segment can be winning, you know, like
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. If you're in for two undred bucks
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: or something in your segment, here a thousand bucks and
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: your segment's worth ten. Yeah, even if you are chopping
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: up ten, seven, eight, five, like four people chop it up.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: It's like if I have to use Rory, if I
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: have Rory, Scotty Bryson and Zander that I can use
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: in a segment, and that gets me the best money
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: and the most and scores, well, others won't be able
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: to do that. Not everybody will. So I'm trademarking this
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: right now. But the one and done currently to your point,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: is based on the season and the way it sets up,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: and we'll see what roll app does. It sounds like
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be good things, but it's go sig or
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: go home, And that's really what it comes down to.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: You.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: You've got to go big at the signature.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: Events or you're done, because you could win six of
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: these valsmart type of bed, pick six winners and not
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: even have ten million bucks right in your bank account.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: It's pretty crazy.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: But you can win four of the signatures or majors
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: and mix them together and be at like sixteen to
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: twenty million depending on the events or whatever. So sixteen
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: plut Like that's just a huge difference when twenty four
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: million got the job done last year. So you're kind
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: of trying to collect the money as you go at
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: these get what you can, but not burn the guys
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: that you know you're gonna want to use. At the signatures,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: there is no like that's what happens in NFL Survivors, right,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: Like people try and survive so long, but it's like
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: you need to be able to survive when the world's
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: actually ending at the end. You know, when the survivor
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: ends is typically towards the end, and that's when all
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: the biggest decisions are worth the most ev and the
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: most money. Everyone that's trying to survive in the beginning,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: it's like there's nothing to survive yet, like it's not
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: everyone's getting killed, only some people are.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: The end of the world when it happens is when
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: you need to survive. And that's the same in golf.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: You need to have these guys that you have as
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: options to stick around and then hope to get those through.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: So you should really be planning your signature events with
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: what you have left and then making your decisions. Somebody
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: just said, I think it was my guy, Timmydubbs said,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: you like a Can't layer Nick Taylor this week. I
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: don't know. For me, it's it's gonna be what I
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: look at on my stuff. You gotta go. Look. So,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: if if you plan out your signature events and your
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: majors and you don't have Can't laand Nick Taylor, and
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: that's how easy it is, and you don't use Nick
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Taylor or Can't I can't imagine you would be. So
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: it sounds like they're options at least, And then you
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: work backwards and say, Okay, if that's the case, is
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: there somewhere else that I would want Can't lay at
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: that I would use him or Nick Tylor where they're
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: going to be in a weaker field and that or
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: if if I do have Xander at the US Open
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: and I have Hovelin later in the season, that's something,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: and I have Fitzpatrick later in the season. That's something,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: and I'm putting them in for other slots. Then now
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: it gets you to your pool for this week of
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: what's left, and then those could become options for you.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: So I definitely think that that would be the way
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: to look at it. For me, for one and done,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: who do we want to use for this week? What
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: are you thinking?
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: I don't have any strong feelings. I think I'm interested
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: in Homa. I'm interested in h Man Kegan a little bit.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: He hasn't played well, but he's really low owed and
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: at this point I would almost be surprised if I
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: regret having used him earlier in the season. Like I
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: know a lot of people want to save him for
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: the Travelers, for example. I don't really feel the need
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: to save him for anything. So we could use him,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: we could go Pendrith or Davis Thompson, Rasmus Wyndham, Clark.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Man. It's really true, like you said, we're just trying
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: to collect some money here, so you know, I was
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: thinking of like going a little bit more off the board,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: but I think, like, who's the first guy that you
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: mentioned before, Keegan? I can't Homa?
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Like what else are we saving Homa?
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: For exactly.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, you can't wait he talks, he's only
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: had like thirty second places. It's like, again, the field
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: strength is different. He came thirty second at the Players.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: That's a you know, top field the world. This is
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: not the top field. And then on top of it,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: it's like maybe we only collect three hundred thousand or
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: two hundred forty thousand or start five hundred, like it's
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: just we're just getting money. It doesn't it's nothing really
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: matters the way the current setup is except for the signature. Yes,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: you want to collect as much as possible along the way,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: but you do not want your five or six wins
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: to happen at these events. If those are bonuses on top,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: you'll take it. I'm not saying don't get them. I'm
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: just saying it matters so much more to who you're
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: not using, and back to your DFS analogy of it.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: It's not just who you're playing, but it's who you're
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: not playing. It matters are of Okay, we're not using
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: we know we're not using Xander Hovelin, Fitzpatrick, guys like
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: that that we can save and use. So yeah, I
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: think that's fine if you wanted to. But honestly, even
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: Corey Connors might show up at a better place later on.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: He's got his you know what is the vlero Texas
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: open that we can always use the matter or something
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: like that. Just collect. He can be your collect money guy.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: The oh, but he's gonna be chalky. That's fine. You're
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: trying to collect five hundred thousand. He's probably capable. It's
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: like that's the type of tournament where the field strength
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: might not be there. I heard a lot of people
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: talk about Brooks by the way, and I guess we'll
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: this is like a one and done slash betting slash
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: GFS topic real quickly before we get out of here.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: But I do our lanes and stuff in the betting segment.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: But Brooks Kopka this week? Any thoughts about him being
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: sort of back? I know people kind of like him here.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: People bet him on all the futures after what they
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: saw last week for the other majors. What's your thoughts
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: on Brooks?
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: I like his form, but I don't like the course fit.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: I'd rather save him for one of these types events
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: where it's it's a weak field but it's a ball
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: striker's paradise, especially off the tee, and we just don't
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: get that here. And I also at this point want
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: him when putting isn't super predictive like it is this week,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: So I'll pass on Brooks are one and done this week,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: even though it's the type of event that I'm very
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: interested in playing him. And I do agree that I
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: think the form is really really encouraging. He seems like
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: he's he's got a lot of it figured out right now.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm good with home if you are. I
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: like that call.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's do that, all right.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Anything from a betting breakdown perspective this week, do you
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: have anything that you're keying in on? Any pick coms,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: any outrights and anything that you saw in the betting
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: side of things.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: I don't have any outrights yet. I need to actually
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: make some outrights for this week. The pick them stuff
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 3: has been awesome. We had another really good week this
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: past week. We're hitting it sixty five percent on individual picks.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: You need to hit at fifty three and a half
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: percent to be profitable over an underdog, so sixty five
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: percent is a really really good hit rate. I've been
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: really encouraged by it and to the point where I
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: think this week I'll probably have even more plays than
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: I've had in the past few weeks. The past few
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: weeks have pretty much been tailored mostly to round four,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: but this week I think I'll try to do a
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: lot more on the Pickham side because I don't feel
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: like I need to have such an advantage anymore now
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: that I know we're hitting it such a big clip,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: and so a lot of the analysis and the strategy
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: that I've been using has been working really well. And
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: excited to see that come to fruition for four rounds
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: instead of one this week.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Jason, if you can bring this question for next
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: week or throw it in the comments after the show
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: ends live, just because I think talking about that overall
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: percentage thing is a good one to circle back on.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: It's a, you know again, something that people have had
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: in their mind for for good reason. Right they're they're
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: getting to I always talk about the penthouse. It's like
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: people get to level one of like, yeah, you don't
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: want one hundred and fifty percent combined ownership, but there's
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: different things to consider.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: I just showed you earlier how I want a mega ticket.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: Last week with the lineup that would have done quite
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: well in other places too, but you know, I didn't
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: have it exactly in the right spots. But to say,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: you know, to pay it off, but to get the
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: ticket as nice. But it had nobody under Timber or
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: one guy at nine point two two or something. So
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: we'll talk more about that. You know, Timmy just brought
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: it up that Brandon Adams was like one hundred and three.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: It's that's the problem is if you corner yourself into
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: like eighty five and do it, I get for like
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: mm and larger field. Yes, it's kind of worth it
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: to take on even more risk because it's like you
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: want those separators when they actually are true separators. The
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: Nico Etravaria type play where it's like, okay, yeah, he's
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: a DFL or a winning player, like that's kind of
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: what you expect to get out of him, but you
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: kind of want to risk that. But it's not the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: picture of it all. And product ownership and things like
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: Alex talked about and the comminatorial ownership, all that stuff
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: matters a lot more. I agree, not just Brooks but
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: any players. The more good players we can see on
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: the tour and the more they're in the mix and
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: playing well. People bitch about it when like Homas Feet
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: and JT are back in the mix, like, oh, of
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: course those losers finally decided to do something. It's like
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: it's better when they do something. It's actually way better
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: for golf as a whole and for the fans.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: And everybody to be involved.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: I think last week's players did like a million more
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: or something in the ratings than the previous or something
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: like that. So just you know, interesting things like that
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: that we can see. I think it's definitely solid. And Jason,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: just to follow up, I know you're asking, that's my point.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: Actually would be a great example here with Fitzpatrick. You
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: can build good Fitzpatrick lineups if you want to, still
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: and even with him being almost forty and there will
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: be like if you think about him as Ludwig. Last
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: week Brandon Adams had thirty eight percent on Ludwig and
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: still one hundred and three percent. So when you force
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: in fits but then also for in or sorry, when
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: you play fits, but also force in eighty five percent
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: or whatever your magic number you're thinking of is, that's
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: where you can get yourself into trouble and you could
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: actually block yourself or box yourself out from a win,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: because there's tons of different ways to build with Fitzpatrick
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: where you could still include other chalk and things like that.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: But again, topic conversation for another day, Alex, I'll give
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: you the floor because I've got too ready so I
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: feel like you're gonna steal one. I just have that feeling,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: and if you do, that's okay. I got a backup plan.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: So give us your leverage lane for the week.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: Talking from a single entry perspective here, I don't know
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: if I'm in a steel yours mine is going to
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: be in response to that conversation that I had about
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: where I see so much of this auctionay ownership funneling too,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: and that is the upper eight K range. I think
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: all these guys are gonna get a ton of ownership
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: and the lower eight K range is going to remain very,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: very under owned. So my leverage lane is to kind
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: of hammer this low to mid eight K range Homa, Clark,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: Rasmus Thompson, Taylor, Pendrith, Keigan, Bradley, all these guys seem
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: like really good place to me. You can also extend
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: this down a little bit to smally bez Olison, maybe
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: even Coody a little bit. I think those guys are
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: going to be under owned because they're sandwiched in between
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: all of the ownership, which is that seventy four to
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: seventy five hundred range of McGreevy, Smotherman, Meisner, and then
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: the eighty six to nine thousand range of Connors, Nikolai, Thegala, Spawnedsatsine,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: everyone in between. I think as a chance to just
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: really slip through the cracks and be totally under owned.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: I like it, and it wasn't mine, so we're good.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: So actually, you know the funny concept of this show
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: and how he sort of migrated it as the seasons
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: progressed a little bit, is like you're the single entry,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: I'm the MM guy, so why not why not multi
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: lane it today? Little Chriss cross drive across two lanes here,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: just not into the ditch, hopefully, but just noting it.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: What I was gonna say is, I think my guy
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: stat brought it up earlier, him and I pretty contrarian players.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: He talks about all the time, going in your laying
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: one hundred miles an hour. I think there's definitely some
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: interest to me now to have like Xander Hobland builds
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: just together because those Xander Hoblin builds skip not not
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: only a popular nine K range, but a popular eight
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: K range which not only skips the plays. Oh, I
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: can't not play Fitzpatrick everywhere like all this Like, who
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: gives a shit. I'm just saying you get two of
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: the best golfers in the field. And what we talked
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: about earlier is you now cannot get easily at least
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: to multiple seven point four K guys, which is where
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: that So I'm just using that number seventy three to
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: seventy seven.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: However you want to frame it up.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: My point is you miss on all the popular plays
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: and the popular builds. So I almost certainly have some
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: lineups with Xander and Hovlin, right. I like that setup,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: and then you go down and then the second one
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: I want to bring up. I actually think this is
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: pretty interesting because I thought this is where you were
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: going earlier and you didn't fully go there. I liked
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: your way that you put it better because it's different altogether.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: Of you saying like when people don't land, I'm just
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: checking a number on this guy too. Yeah, when people
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: move off auk Shay right now, it's like, who are
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: the who are the people? And it's like those Aucja people.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: Sometimes are people that like anchoring, and then other times
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: it's people that like, you gotta keep throwing this in there. Uh,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: sometimes people that like recent form. And I like that
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: point because that's where people land now on Bridgeman, they
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: land on Fitzpatrick. It just leads to blowing them up
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: more and changes the other build styles. But I thought
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: you were gonna say you could also move to like
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: what type of player is Akshay? What did you like
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: about ak Shay? And I think this is true, and
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's fully true. We're gonna find
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: out this week. But I think another really interesting option
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: here is in the nine K range. And I think
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: it's justin Thomas right just to call it a singular
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: option here. And why I would think that is, I
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: think if you look at like the you know, some
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: of the numbers you throw out and put the things
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: that you put up there. Ok, Shay and j T
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: are like can be boombust. You know, they can put
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: up scoring when they do. And it's funny because I
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: don't think he'd be the guy that people would immediately
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: land on. It's to me, it's gonna be obvious. You've
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: got you know, Xander above, and you've got Fitzpatrick and
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: Bridgeman below, and then you jump all the way down
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: to that Connors to Rio range that you talk so like,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: even though JT is gonna have something, it's like, could
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: it be a situation where he is like the Fleetwood
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: to the more Kaua of last week. If it's is
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: going to be forty but JT's gonna be seventeen, that's
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: quite the gap in those two being in a very
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: similar range.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: And then the other thing is what's funny is if
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: you look.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: At JT eighth place last week and people can say
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: about how he got there, I don't really care, but
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: funny enough if you look at how he's done here, second, ten, third, third,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: different player at the time, but just saying his capability
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: in this field strength I think is fine. So I
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: think he's pretty interesting as well. If you land in
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: the nine k range and you want to use JT,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: but you could also have like a Hobland JT, which
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: would also force the eight k skip of that range
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: that you talked about, and maybe you could still get
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: to your guys in the lower eight K range combining
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: it all together. So yeah, I really think there's some
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: truly unique ways to build this week. It makes for
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: a much more fun DFS event. Even if you don't
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: love the event itself or it's not the greatest field
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: or have you look at it. We're still in this
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: game to make money, play profitably, and do things that way.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: So I'm looking forward to it, my friend. Any final
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: thoughts from you? Anythone want to add on my lanes there?
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: If not, you can let the people know where they
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: can find you.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: I've got a question for you for sure? Is this
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: a Sung Jay week?
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: Every week?
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: Is for me? But that's something I've created that situation
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: for myself by playing him pretty much every week. But
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: you know what, I didn't play him this season so
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: far really like a few lineups. I had him in
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: like one single entry where it kind of just fit
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: and I was like, oh, I gotta do it for
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: the bit, I'll play him there. I do think he's
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: interesting at seventy one hundred, so I won't say no
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: to Sung Jay this week. I just don't know if
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: I have full faith in uh where I was I
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: had it up here earlier the last week's stats too,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: like even like, so it's not about like did he
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: make the cut, because we know he missed his cuts
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: so far, but where was his stats last week?
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: So I'll tell you why I'm a little bit interested
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: because historically Sungjy's a very good iron player, but last
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: year he was an atrocious iron player, like worse than
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: Minwu Lee with the Irons, and we just saw him
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: gain a little bit at the players. He's playing a
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: new set of irons, and I think there's just a
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: chance that number one, like, we don't know how long
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: that risk injury was actually bothering him. The wrist injury
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: may have been one of the main reasons why he
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: was struggling with the Irons as much as he did
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: last year. It's also just possible that the time off
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: really helped him address the iron issues. So I think
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: the chance that he's going to figure out the Irons
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: and that they're going to be good in the next
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: few weeks is a lot higher than it was at
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: any point last year. The chance that he gains you know,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: a million strokes on and around the green is the
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: way he was doing a lot last year, is also
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: a little bit lower, just because you know, there's rust
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: after that much time off, and it was a little
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: bit unsustainable how much he was gaining around the greens.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: And part of the reason why he was gaining so
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: much around the greens is because he was missing green
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: after green after green. Yeah, so you know that that
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: can't be as high as it was last year if
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 3: he actually starts hitting more greens now. But all that
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: is to say, I do think this is a very
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: good time. Seventy one hundred low owned in a weak field,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty that could work in his favor.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: I hope it does. I definitely do what I noticed
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: last week. I remember because I was looking at him
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: for round two showdown. In round one, it looked like
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: he'd actually found the irons.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: It was pretty sweet.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: He only made two birdies, which was I know what
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: he was looking at him, and his approach looked horrible
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: because in round one he lost or he barely he
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: like broke even on approach. But there was one bad
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: hole whole sixteen he lost almost two strokes on approach,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: so it was like, oh man, that's all it is.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: But almost every other hole he was pretty solid on.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: But in round two he started making birdies, but he
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: had like nine holes where he lost decent on approach again,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: it was like he did again, So it's so off
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: and on. It's such a small sample. Guys, though, I
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: don't care about that anyway, so it's like just noting
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: it from your perspective.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: I think that's a good call. What I like more
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: is just that he's seventy one hundred.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: He's in a range where not many are landing or
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: nobody's really getting that kind of ownership, and he fits
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: the style of builds that I just talked about there perfectly,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: So I think that could be good as well. This
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: I'll land on before we get out here, and I'll
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: let you talk about what you've got going on, but
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: go collect said the approach and putting was while I
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: was looking them up. I wonder if the golfer's excelling
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: in those two categories will garner more ownership sometimes. But
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: I think this was a bit of the one and
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: done code cracking you talked about a little bit, not completely,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: but just saying like, that's what's happening in one and done,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: where you see people are leaning on typically what the
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: course fit is right, and what if it's all bombers.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: Then you see a lot of bombers in one and
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: done and it goes like that, and so on a
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: week like this, you could definitely see that with the
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: approach and putting and then the form coming in.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there also aren't many guys who like are so
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: clearly elite in those two skill sets the way that
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: Achay is, So it's hard to say, like, oh, if
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: that's what people were looking for, then they're going to
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: go to this player, because there isn't another player who's
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: as good in both categories as Achay is other than Xander.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let the people know they can find you. What
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: else you got going on this week? I know you
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: impacted the show, Yes, so you guys can go check
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: that out. You got your discord and everything. But yeah,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: just just let everybody know where where to find you
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: and what else have you got going on? Yeah?
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: At Alex Poka one on Twitter, and we just launched
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: a new March Madness simulation tool that's really cool and
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: it helps someone like me because I I don't know
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: what damn thinking about college basketball, So I'll be using
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: that to build all my brank brackets over at FT
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: and Fantasy and then we also have the PGA simms
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: there and and yeah, everything everything with my discord is
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: the same, talking a lot of a lot of good
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: strategy stuff and doing a March Madness giveaway and and
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: we've been really hot, as I said, in the props
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: and pick them, So I really treat props and pick
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: them as like my version of cash games, where that's
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: how I'm steadily building the bankroll. And then DFS is
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: more of like an upside and just you know, give
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: me a give me a ceiling every year, and that
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: is that kind of formula has been working extremely well.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: So if you want to add props and pick them
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: to to what you do, I definitely recommend checking out
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: my discord one hundred percent.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: I'm in there.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: I know Mayo's in there, I know others are as well.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: Like I said, it's awesome just to see how that's
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: all shaping and taking form. I love stuff like that.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: And then a lot more strategy stuff as well, like
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: we do over at Mastermind and with ship a Nation.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: If you guys want to check out ship Nation, you
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: can check it.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: Out pretty easily. If you want to just check out
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: for this week, use the code up top ship nineteen
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: get five days for nineteen dollars. If you go to
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: join the Nation, it's right there. It makes no sense
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: to take the daily trial just to get today's stuffespecially
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna be playing Showdown and you want in
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: the Discord and all of that you get Sabersim included.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: The five day trial for nineteen bucks is the best deal.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: You can just go there and click the cold The
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: code story is auto built in. If you click single Sport,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: it will take you to PGA and then you can
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: get anything from content only up to with Sabersim, up
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: to with Sabersim and the Rick run good tools for
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: less than forty five a month for everything, but as
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: low as twenty five a month if you want just
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: the Discord, the content, the Stone, all the other stuff
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: that we offer. And then our man Matt Gannon this
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: week is out there Boots on the ground again. He's
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: just on a tear right now checking it all out.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: He's got the Boots bullets, he's got the Boots Show
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: coming up here shortly, and then he'll have everything in
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: the slate plan with myself and Hoop as well. Check
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: it out. If you guys want to find me on
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: x At totagging Tambo MLB back soon. Like my man
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: Nate says, appreciate everybody for watching. We'll be back next
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: week for Alex for myself totagging Tambo lead ship it