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WARNING The Next Market Crash Could Be Brutal · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I don't think anybody is talking about how low the
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: VIX got. And not only my levels that I'm always
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: looking at is between the number 11 and 15. Whenever
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: we get to those levels, like historically, if we just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: go back, let's say three or four years, the last
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: time we got to 1525.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: A few months later, we shot up to 27 in 2021.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Five, we touched 16, and then a few months later,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: we got to 30. A couple days ago, we got
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: to 15. We're currently at 17. Normally, that's when you
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: get that little knot in your stomach like, okay, I've
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: seen this happen enough. I don't know what's going to
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: cause it, but I don't hear enough people talking about it.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: And the bond market could be the thing that causes it.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I think that's why they're trying to get in front
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: of it. but I could see us go from 15
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: to 27 over a three or four month period, which
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: I prefer not to happen in the fall. That's why
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: for me, if I'm going to have a storm, let
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the hurricanes and all that stuff happen. And not to
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: be remiss for what's happening to Gary, I want to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: be insensitive, but I want my issues to happen in
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the summertime.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: So when the fall comes, everyone's in a buying mood.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: If we hit 27 or 30 or 30.2, on the
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  Speaker 1: VIX in November and December?
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: No, we can't do that. No, we can't do that.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Because it's going to.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Bleed into January and now all the real think pieces
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: about 27 are going to come to light.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Man, I don't want that.
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: We cannot be in those volatile situations in November and December.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: That is the biggest quarter.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, for our tech companies, for sure, the Apple
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: of the world, Amazon, the Microsoft of the world.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: But yeah, 25 is when I'm like, all right, seatbelts on.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: And I've seen that happen over the past, since 2020,
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: so six years. We've gotten into those mid-20s in September
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: and October. So we're kind of gearing up for that.
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: But again, history, I think it's rewriting itself now. We
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: can see what happens.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Rewriting is the code word for manipulation.
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: Why can't we just be clean for two seconds?
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, it's me. It's me and Rashad.
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  Speaker 3: You know what?
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Me and Rashad are the trouble.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: It may be different, but if they rewrite it, when
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: it does, like when I was little, I would prefer
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: for my mom to spank me than her to call
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: my dad to get to spanking.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: It's going to be worse.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: If we have no midterm drop, no summer drop, No
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  Speaker 1: drop in the fall?
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  Speaker 2: The one that happens in February?
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Now, if we have a drop when all the new
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: hedge fund money is slushing in for that February and
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: March period, it's going to be hell on earth.
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: It's going to be. At some point, the roller coaster
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  Speaker 3: has to come down, right?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. Usually, the party.
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: which we call it in the words of Michael Novogratz,
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: you got to know when to leave the party or
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: at least step on the sideline for the party. And
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: we don't know when the party is, meaning that there's
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: going to be a deep correction.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: We haven't seen it yet. All signs are pointing that
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: it won't.
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: I know that 8,000 becomes the number that everybody's watching
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: for the S & P. So, all right, do we
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: get there first or do we climb back down to 7,300?
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  Speaker 1: I think we'll hit eight first and then we'll, they'll
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: let some of the air out of the balloon because
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: if you're raising capital, even with Bitcoin going up, say
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: their position is now back positive.
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: Yep.
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  Speaker 1: There's some engineering and games that they're playing. So we'll
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: get closer to 8,000. And then after that, The funds
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: have been brought in and they've settled in their accounts.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Okay, then we can let the market fall apart slowly.
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: We're going to need that capital for OpenAI. We're going
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: to need the capital for Anthropic. We still got some
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: big earnings. Obviously, we talked about NVIDIA, but Broadcom's coming
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: up at the top of September. Micron will come back
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: around mid-September.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Reportedly, Anderil is moving up their date.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: See what I'm saying?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Everyone's moving their date up so they don't get washed
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: out in 27. You don't want to be caught how
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Stripe was in 2022 and miss your moment.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Man, Stripe, man.
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  Speaker 3: That was the one that was the highest valuation.
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  Speaker 4: Yes.
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  Speaker 3: And yeah, that won't be a distinction that they will
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: have for sure.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Shout to Stripe. I love you from the bottom. Sponsor buy.
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: Fueled by Stripe.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Love you dearly. I never want any issues with Stripe
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: ever again.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: We don't need any 90-day remittances.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: We appreciate you.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: What is the biggest mistake you see in investing right now?
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: I got one that is good. I feel like we're
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: going to be on the same page.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to be on the same page,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: and I don't know how to express it, so I'm
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: going to just say it flat out. Too many of
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  Speaker 1: you want to be traders because you have no excitement
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in your life or something that brings you joy, opposed
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: to just holding for long-term and actually getting rich from
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: holding the assets long-term.
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  Speaker 2: Okay. For everyone who says, well, how do I get
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: the capital? I don't make only fans. I don't know.
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  Speaker 1: But for the first two years of your trading journey,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: it's going to be really hard. If this gets clipped
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: up on my page for all you traders, you'd be like, yo,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: when you don't even do, listen, I'm telling you, I've
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: been trading futures since 2015. The number of people I
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: know who quit before you get good at year three
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  Speaker 1: or year four is probably 85%. The best trading money
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and easiest trading money you'll ever make is holding the
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: equity long-term. And putting the trading first over, like even
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: when I reviewed portfolios on Stock Club, it was a
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  Speaker 1: bunch of people who sent me the options and future
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  Speaker 1: portfolio first.
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  Speaker 2: I'm like, that's not the long-term portfolio. It's not.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: I'm going to read what I wrote. I'm going to
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: read what I wrote down because I figured I'm like, yo,
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: we're going to be on the same page.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: I put panic buying. Okay. Most people think about panic selling.
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  Speaker 2: Yes.
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  Speaker 3: Oh my gosh. I'm going to lose all of it.
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  Speaker 2: Especially like in space.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: This is what I wrote.
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  Speaker 2: Tell us more.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: Too many people are chasing AI winners based on headlines
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  Speaker 4: and past performance without calculation of the valuations. position size,
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  Speaker 4: or what the future growth has already priced in. Literally,
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  Speaker 4: that is what I wrote down.
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  Speaker 3: And what does that mean?
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: We're watching this happen in real time, whether it be
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: in memory, whether it be in energy. People are saying
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: to myself, oh my gosh, I watched that person win.
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: I can win too. So here is the last sentence, though.
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  Speaker 4: You don't lose money because you missed the first move.
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: You lose money when fault evinces you to abandon your discipline.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: It's a key point. It's so important. You don't lose.
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  Speaker 4: So if you, let's say that, hey, you something go
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  Speaker 4: up 10, 15, 20%.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: You weren't in the position. You're not losing money.
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  Speaker 2: So what?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: So what?
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: But if it's a strong company that you're going to
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  Speaker 3: invest in long-term, you have a foundation, then you build.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: On top of the foundation. Then when is it going
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  Speaker 2: to add up?
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  Speaker 3: Discipline to what your plan is.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 4: Like you only lose when you're saying I don't want
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  Speaker 4: to miss out and you forget your plan.
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  Speaker 3: You throw it out the window. You lose your discipline.
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  Speaker 3: Once you lose that, then you lose money.
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  Speaker 2: You know who's a prime example of that? Eli Lilly.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: As soon as the AI.
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  Speaker 1: Trade got hot, you know who didn't go out to
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: buy GPUs and make a AI doctor? Lilly. They stay focused.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: They said, let me go get this peptide market. I
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: see y'all getting hot in the gray market. Let me
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: acquire everything that I need there in China. and they
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: focus on their core competency, and all the gains have
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: come from that.
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  Speaker 3: Who did they partner with?
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: Hefe.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: We're talking about healthcare tech or Hefe. Go look at
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  Speaker 4: their partnership with NVIDIA. We were there when they got announced.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: You don't have to deviate far from the plan. And
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: just chasing trades. I know you brought up light last week.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I brought up EUV. People start, yo, what's the price
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: of EUV? If you haven't gotten VOO or VTI, VGT,
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  Speaker 1: even if it should not be your first piece of
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  Speaker 1: exposure to a fucking ETF, I'm sorry.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: No. Right.
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  Speaker 4: So I'm glad you brought that point up because there
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: are a lot of people, oh my gosh, it's back
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: to its original price. Yes. There are people watching this
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: show for eight years, seven years for Market Mondays. They
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: have built a foundation and they're adding to that foundation.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: And we're giving them some ideas, things that they can
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: look at to increase their the portfolio, but it's a foundation.
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: And there's some people who are new to Market Mondays
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: who might've been watching this for the past six months.
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  Speaker 4: So don't forget the core pieces, like build the foundations first.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: First.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: Have some strong indexes, have some strong ETFs. Look at
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: the future growth of those, the companies inside of that
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: ETF before you decide. It's just not, hey, let me
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: just go out there and buy it. No. Make sure
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: that your portfolio is sufficient with an actual plan. You
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: know Ian's plan, two tech, two index. That has not
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: changed in seven years. Probably 15 years. And it's not
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: going to change. No.
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: I told you, look, I'm going to build my table.
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: It's going to be two indexes and two ETFs, and
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: I'm going to build on top of that table with
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: individual equities. Then we're going to try to get some
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: derivatives on top of it.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: What's your plan?
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Listen to me.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: That should be the plan. And if so, buy it.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: First is like hanging a chandelier and you have no
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: drywall in the house. That's the last thing you need
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: right now, my brother. Get the foundation. And also, too,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the other part, I know as a trader, it feels
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: backwards to tell you not to trade first. But the
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: opportunity cost in losing out on four, like the one
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: thing I will say, this is my thoughts, my thoughts only,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: not Troy, not Rashad, this Red Panda LLC rebellion. Everybody
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: who critiqued me, you also see they don't have as
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: many shares as I do. The net worth number is
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: not matching in alignment. So you have to be mindful
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: of where you get your advice from, right? I'm telling
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: you this as a person who has watched a bunch
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: of traders say, I can out-trade any long-term gains.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: You can't beat Father Time. Mm-mm.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: You cannot beat father time. Like, so you can try
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: and trade your way to get, but you're going to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: have a down day or the internet connection goes down,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: whether you're wired or wireless or the broker screw you.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Or for those of you using prop funds, your prop
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: firm goes out of business or they fuck over your
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: payout or they start trading again. There's a bunch of
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: things that can go wrong. A lot of things go
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: right when you have time on your side, but do
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: what you want.
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: You're not going to be time. This is why I
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: said it's the most valuable asset. It should be in
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: part of your investment plan for sure.
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: Whether it's going to be 15, 20 years or it's
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: going to be two and a half years if you're
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: in a call.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: Because it's the one thing that we cannot control and
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: we can't get back.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: If you learn from Leopold, time is the most valuable asset.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: And once they got his portfolio, once they got it,
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: you know how disrespectful they were with it?
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: We're going to let it run up a little bit.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: We're going to sell off 80% of it now that
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: that's in the profit, and we're going to keep that 20%.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: I have strong suspicion that part of that 20% is Micron, Sanders.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: And maybe Nibius.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: That was his largest position.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.