Latest / Pod Save America / How Kamala Beats Trump (Final Ep.)

Transcript

How Kamala Beats Trump (Final Ep.) · Pod Save America

0:04
Speaker 1: Okay, we made it. We started this season in late
0:07
Speaker 1: May when Donald Trump was just slightly ahead of Joe Biden.
0:10
Speaker 1: Democrats were worried, but still hopeful. We end with Kamala
0:14
Speaker 1: Harris just slightly ahead of Donald Trump. Democrats are hopeful,
0:18
Speaker 1: but still worried. In a nearly three-month span, there were
0:22
Speaker 1: more seismic political developments than in maybe any presidential campaign
0:26
Speaker 1: of my lifetime. A felony conviction, an assassination attempt, A
0:32
Speaker 1: debate so catastrophic that an incumbent president dropped out of
0:35
Speaker 1: the race just weeks before he would have been nominated?
0:39
Speaker 1: Then his vice president picked up the torch, united the party,
0:42
Speaker 1: won the internet, energized the anti-MAGA coalition, and will accept
0:46
Speaker 1: that nomination this week on her way to potentially making history.
0:53
Speaker 1: But the race is still close. After all that, the
0:57
Speaker 1: race is still close. And I've been wondering... if it
1:00
Speaker 1: was always going to be close, no matter what happened.
1:03
Speaker 1: Because electorally, we've been an evenly divided country for a
1:08
Speaker 1: while now. And today, the two parties are as different
1:11
Speaker 1: as they've ever been. The choice may be hard for
1:14
Speaker 1: some voters, but it's pretty clear. But this shouldn't make
1:18
Speaker 1: us feel like nothing matters. In a close race, everything matters.
1:24
Speaker 1: The candidates, their campaigns, their messages, and the volunteers who
1:28
Speaker 1: carry that message to voters. especially voters who haven't yet
1:32
Speaker 1: decided what they'll do in November. The question is, how
1:36
Speaker 1: much does all that matter? Are we talking a few
1:39
Speaker 1: votes per precinct in the closest swing states? Or is
1:42
Speaker 1: the exuberance Democrats are feeling right now about something more?
1:47
Speaker 1: Maybe something bigger? This is why I wanted to talk
1:51
Speaker 1: to Lynn Vavrick again. She's the brilliant UCLA political scientist
1:55
Speaker 1: and friend of the pod, You heard in the first episode,
1:58
Speaker 1: talking about a term she uses to describe our deeply,
2:01
Speaker 1: closely divided electorate.
2:03
Speaker 2: So calcification sounds like polarization. But we think about it
2:07
Speaker 2: as polarization plus. And it makes politics feel stuck. Like
2:12
Speaker 2: calcification in the bones. It's rigid.
2:15
Speaker 1: I figured Lynn could give us her take on the
2:16
Speaker 1: state of the new race for president with 80 days left.
2:20
Speaker 1: Not based on polls or media coverage or how the
2:22
Speaker 1: campaigns are doing each day. but on her analysis of
2:25
Speaker 1: our calcified electorate and what might persuade voters to break
2:29
Speaker 1: out of it. You'll hear my conversation with Lynn next. Then,
2:34
Speaker 1: I figured we'd end the show by getting our marching
2:37
Speaker 1: orders from the Harris-Walls campaign itself. So I asked one
2:41
Speaker 1: of its newest members to chat, an old friend who's
2:43
Speaker 1: managed two of the three successful Democratic presidential campaigns of
2:47
Speaker 1: this century, Senior Harris Campaign Advisor David Plouffe. I'm Jon Favreau.
2:59
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Wilderness. Lynn Favreau, welcome back to The Wilderness.
3:05
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.
3:06
Speaker 1: We had you on the first episode where you talked
3:08
Speaker 1: about how the electorate isn't just polarized but calcified, which
3:12
Speaker 1: means it's roughly 50-50 between two parties, divided by identity-inflected issues,
3:19
Speaker 1: and that's made the last several elections feel especially close-heated and,
3:23
Speaker 1: of course, as we saw in 2020, even violent. And
3:25
Speaker 1: we talked about, in April— whether there are any developments
3:29
Speaker 1: that could break us out of those calcified elections. Since then,
3:33
Speaker 1: we've had one candidate who was convicted of a felony,
3:36
Speaker 1: won a debate, survived an assassination attempt, and is still
3:39
Speaker 1: getting roughly the same share of the vote that he
3:43
Speaker 1: had before. Then we had another candidate who lost the
3:46
Speaker 1: debate so badly that he ultimately had to drop out
3:49
Speaker 1: of the race and pass the baton to the first
3:51
Speaker 1: Black woman vice president, who is now leading the race
3:53
Speaker 1: for president by a few points with less than 100
3:56
Speaker 1: days to go.
3:57
Speaker 2: I wish I were a movie producer and you were
3:59
Speaker 2: pitching to me because I would green light this immediately.
4:02
Speaker 1: This is great. Or you'd be like, no one's going
4:03
Speaker 1: to believe that. So I wanted to have you back
4:06
Speaker 1: to know how you're making sense of all this and
4:08
Speaker 1: whether you think breaking out of calcification seems any more
4:12
Speaker 1: likely now.
4:13
Speaker 2: I will tell you that when all of those events
4:16
Speaker 2: started to happen, the little voice in my head said, Oh, boy.
4:21
Speaker 2: Here comes the biggest test of calcification we've seen.
4:24
Speaker 3: Yeah.
4:25
Speaker 1: It's one of my first thoughts as well.
4:26
Speaker 2: Oh, I love that.
4:27
Speaker 3: Okay.
4:28
Speaker 2: And then as the days passed and the weeks rolled
4:31
Speaker 2: on and crazier things, unexpected things started to happen.
4:34
Speaker 1: And....
4:36
Speaker 2: As you just said, there was not a lot of
4:39
Speaker 2: movement in the polls. And to be fair, nobody expected
4:42
Speaker 2: big movement.
4:43
Speaker 1: Right.
4:44
Speaker 2: But there really wasn't a lot. I thought, wow, okay,
4:47
Speaker 2: you know, calcification is really holding up well here. And
4:50
Speaker 2: this is sort of the best evidence that we could
4:53
Speaker 2: have ever dreamed up. So fast forward now to three
4:57
Speaker 2: weeks later, however many weeks it's been, some short number
4:59
Speaker 2: of days since all of this started. And you are
5:03
Speaker 2: starting to see movement in the polls. But don't confuse
5:09
Speaker 2: that with, oh, we're moving out of calcification, because what
5:12
Speaker 2: is the movement doing? The movement is taking us back
5:16
Speaker 2: to where we thought we would be initially. So we're
5:20
Speaker 2: back to, man, this is going to be a close race.
5:24
Speaker 1: So what did you initially think about the political impact
5:29
Speaker 1: of Biden stepping aside? What was your reaction when it
5:32
Speaker 1: first happened?
5:33
Speaker 2: Well, much like I think everyone else, I was surprised.
5:38
Speaker 2: And then you sort of have to work through, you know, wow,
5:41
Speaker 2: in my lifetime, I didn't think I'd see anything like, okay,
5:44
Speaker 2: so you get through all of that. But from, you know,
5:47
Speaker 2: a research point of view, I thought that a couple
5:51
Speaker 2: of things could happen. My first thought was, boy, everybody
5:54
Speaker 2: thinks this is fundamentally going to change the race. And
5:59
Speaker 2: maybe it changes the veneer. But it doesn't change the
6:03
Speaker 2: landscape of American politics. And so I wondered how long
6:07
Speaker 2: it was going to take for people to appreciate that.
6:11
Speaker 1: Yeah.
6:11
Speaker 2: And I think that I sort of like to talk
6:14
Speaker 2: about it this way. Let's say we've all been to
6:16
Speaker 2: a really nice party and, you know, the music's good
6:19
Speaker 2: and the company's good and the food is good and
6:21
Speaker 2: you're having a great time. Or vacations are like this.
6:25
Speaker 2: And you think, wow, if my life was like this,
6:27
Speaker 2: this would be great. But you know that when you
6:29
Speaker 2: leave the party or you leave the vacation, you're going
6:32
Speaker 2: back to your same old life. And that's a little
6:35
Speaker 2: bit what's happening for Democrats. We've been at a really
6:38
Speaker 2: nice party. But the underlying structure of this contest hasn't
6:43
Speaker 2: changed for voters in terms of what kind of worlds
6:46
Speaker 2: are on offer. But I wonder if.
6:51
Speaker 2: Harrison Walls can keep the party going. You know, this like,
6:55
Speaker 2: we are the joyful freedom ticket. And, you know, turn
6:59
Speaker 2: up the music, get on the bus, and just ride
7:02
Speaker 2: this thing into early voting.
7:04
Speaker 1: Which starts mid-September in some pretty key states.
7:07
Speaker 3: Yeah.
7:08
Speaker 2: And I mean, wow, what a trick.
7:10
Speaker 1: For people who might not know, like, what did you
7:12
Speaker 1: make of Kamala Harris's rise in the polls, right? For context,
7:18
Speaker 1: I think that it was a close race. And then
7:21
Speaker 1: the debate happened and then it wasn't a close race.
7:24
Speaker 1: And then now it's back to being a close race. And,
7:26
Speaker 1: you know, she's probably a little further ahead now than
7:30
Speaker 1: Biden was even before the debate. Not much, but a
7:33
Speaker 1: little bit. So, like, what do you make of the
7:34
Speaker 1: moving polls?
7:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that two things are important to keep
7:38
Speaker 2: in mind. The first is that a lot of those
7:42
Speaker 2: people who moved away from Biden after that debate performance,
7:47
Speaker 2: they were going to come back. And what makes you
7:49
Speaker 2: think they were going to come back? Well, we've seen
7:52
Speaker 2: it in other elections. And the sort of best parallel
7:56
Speaker 2: is 2012. There were two moments like this in 2012.
8:00
Speaker 2: And we know this because we had actual panel data.
8:02
Speaker 2: We were interviewing the same people over and over and
8:05
Speaker 2: over again. And Mitt Romney said 47% of Americans are
8:08
Speaker 2: never going to vote for me. And he lost vote share. Now,
8:12
Speaker 2: those people didn't go to Barack Obama. They went to,
8:15
Speaker 2: I'm undecided. I can't say I'm going to vote for
8:18
Speaker 2: this guy anymore. I'm undecided. But then, maybe a week
8:21
Speaker 2: or so later, Barack Obama had a bad debate performance.
8:25
Speaker 2: And those people, the same people who had moved away
8:28
Speaker 2: from Romney just prior, they moved back to Romney. And
8:31
Speaker 2: a bunch of people who were for Obama moved into undecided.
8:35
Speaker 2: But Obama went on. He had great— he' s Barack Obama. And
8:39
Speaker 2: they came back to him. And I think the same
8:41
Speaker 2: thing was likely to happen here. These people who moved
8:44
Speaker 2: away from Biden after the debate, they didn't go to
8:47
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. They moved into maybe I'll stay home. That's
8:50
Speaker 2: a big thing that's happening this cycle. Or I don't
8:54
Speaker 2: know who I'm going to vote for. They were probably
8:57
Speaker 2: going to come back if things, you know, equilibrated. They
9:01
Speaker 2: have come back. to Kamala Harris. And some other people
9:06
Speaker 2: who are already in those categories have come back. So
9:10
Speaker 2: it's different because the candidate is her. But it isn't
9:14
Speaker 2: like those people were never going to come back.
9:16
Speaker 1: Well, that was my next question, which is the big difference,
9:18
Speaker 1: of course, in 2012 is it's a new candidate, right?
9:20
Speaker 2: Yeah.
9:21
Speaker 1: But, you know, something that I've wondered for a while now,
9:23
Speaker 1: even before this switch happened, is in a very calcified electorate,
9:28
Speaker 1: how much does an entirely new candidate matter? I mean,
9:32
Speaker 1: obviously that remains to be seen, but how are you
9:34
Speaker 1: thinking about that?
9:35
Speaker 2: My guess is not very much, but we cannot confuse
9:41
Speaker 2: that with it's not pivotal. So in this environment where
9:46
Speaker 2: the parties want to build very different worlds and most
9:49
Speaker 2: people understand they want to build very different worlds, the
9:52
Speaker 2: set of people who are voting in elections pretty much
9:55
Speaker 2: know which world they prefer. OK, so when I say
9:59
Speaker 2: like you can swap out that candidate and it's not
10:02
Speaker 2: going to make much of a difference, if it makes
10:05
Speaker 2: a point, if it makes two points like these elections.
10:09
Speaker 2: are very, very close. That point or two, that could
10:14
Speaker 2: be pivotal. That could change the outcome. That could mean
10:16
Speaker 2: a different party is in the White House. That could
10:18
Speaker 2: mean the world is different. So small, but potentially pivotal. Yeah.
10:23
Speaker 1: The new development or the potentially new development is you
10:26
Speaker 1: had mentioned big thing that was happening this cycle is
10:29
Speaker 1: some people saying, I might not vote at all. So
10:31
Speaker 1: now Kamala Harris is the nominee. There's all this excitement, enthusiasm,
10:36
Speaker 1: the crowds are reminiscent of what we saw in 2008,
10:41
Speaker 1: haven't seen it since then. How much does that matter
10:44
Speaker 1: in terms of the final outcome when you think about
10:48
Speaker 1: the opportunity that the Harris-Walls campaign has to maybe bring
10:53
Speaker 1: some new people into the electorate who weren't just bummed
10:57
Speaker 1: out by Biden's debate performance and might come back, but
11:00
Speaker 1: hadn't even thought about being involved because they were like, oh,
11:03
Speaker 1: this is a rerun of Trump-Biden and I just don't.
11:04
Speaker 2: Want to I think it's important. And anytime you can
11:09
Speaker 2: bring more of your 100% guaranteed your voters into the electorate,
11:15
Speaker 2: that's a dollar worth spending because there's no chance that
11:18
Speaker 2: person's not voting for you. So if you can spend
11:20
Speaker 2: that dollar to get a guaranteed voter out, you should
11:23
Speaker 2: do that. It's a lot more efficient than spending that
11:26
Speaker 2: dollar to try to get that persuadable voter who you
11:29
Speaker 2: think is 60-40 for you, but you're just not sure.
11:33
Speaker 2: Because there's some chance they vote for the other guy.
11:35
Speaker 2: So I think this enthusiasm and just the whole party
11:41
Speaker 2: is for sure going to attract more people than the
11:44
Speaker 2: rerun of Trump-Biden would have attracted.
11:47
Speaker 1: It matters more than just good vibes and good feelings. Yeah.
11:51
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, political scientists always want to say, like,
11:54
Speaker 2: you know, stop judging the popularity of these candidates by
11:57
Speaker 2: crowd size. Even before Trump was obsessed with crowd size.
12:01
Speaker 2: And that's true. It is not a substitute for hard
12:05
Speaker 2: quantitative measurements of people's preferences.
12:07
Speaker 1: Right.
12:08
Speaker 2: But you don't have to have gone to get your
12:12
Speaker 2: PhD in political science to understand that when you see
12:15
Speaker 2: all of those people getting excited about this duo, that
12:21
Speaker 2: that means that there's more enthusiasm out there and that
12:25
Speaker 2: more people who thought maybe they were going to sit
12:27
Speaker 2: out this election may be reconsidering that decision.
12:31
Speaker 1: You were talking about how voters who participate in elections
12:35
Speaker 1: sort of understand there are two different worlds that they're
12:38
Speaker 1: choosing between, and they have a pretty good idea of that.
12:41
Speaker 1: Now we have a new candidate. We have a very
12:44
Speaker 1: compressed period. How do you think voters are making decisions
12:48
Speaker 1: about Harris, or at least making impressions of Harris, based
12:53
Speaker 1: on four weeks of campaigning so far?
12:56
Speaker 2: Well, part of this is really simple. So for the
12:59
Speaker 2: 40-whatever percent of the electorate, who consider themselves to be
13:04
Speaker 2: some kind of Democrat, those people knew they liked her
13:07
Speaker 2: already because she's a Democrat. So it's not so much
13:10
Speaker 2: that everyone's evaluating her anew. A little bit of this
13:13
Speaker 2: is people's party identifications are going to color their impression.
13:18
Speaker 2: So Democrats, as soon as it was clear she was
13:21
Speaker 2: the one, were all in. So really the question is,
13:25
Speaker 2: what about these independents?
13:27
Speaker 1: People who are undecided either about who they're voting for
13:30
Speaker 1: or whether they're voting at all.
13:31
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. And this is a group of people that
13:34
Speaker 2: I've been particularly interested in for a while and in
13:37
Speaker 2: this cycle in particular. And independents who voted for Joe
13:42
Speaker 2: Biden in 2020 really have moved away from saying they're
13:46
Speaker 2: going to vote for him or Kamala Harris in this cycle.
13:49
Speaker 2: And so I'm really interested in how many of these
13:53
Speaker 2: people they can get back. And so I think that
13:57
Speaker 2: if you were going to script a rollout, this is
14:00
Speaker 2: a pretty good one. It's hard for me to even
14:03
Speaker 2: think of like, oh, let's erase that day and substitute
14:06
Speaker 2: in a different one. I think they've done a tremendous
14:08
Speaker 2: job of looking like they know what they're doing, which
14:12
Speaker 2: is huge. Competence is huge. There haven't been many missteps.
14:17
Speaker 2: And they've ended up with this really great kind of
14:22
Speaker 2: freedom message that I just love because that is typically
14:27
Speaker 2: the purview of the other side.
14:29
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you about this because last
14:31
Speaker 1: time we spoke, we sort of ended the conversation talking
14:34
Speaker 1: about Biden's focus on democracy.
14:37
Speaker 2: Yes.
14:38
Speaker 1: And I know, you know, and we've gone back and
14:41
Speaker 1: forth on this. And I remember you saying like you
14:45
Speaker 1: weren't quite sure about whether a democracy message was going
14:48
Speaker 1: to bring anyone over who wasn't already with Biden.
14:52
Speaker 2: I'm sure that's a kind paraphrasing.
14:54
Speaker 3: Of what I said.
14:55
Speaker 2: Thank you.
14:56
Speaker 1: Freedom seems like it may be different or what do
14:59
Speaker 1: you think?
15:00
Speaker 2: I think it's definitely different. Even the walls line, you know,
15:03
Speaker 2: in Minnesota, there's a golden rule, like, you know, mind
15:06
Speaker 2: your own damn business. And we let people make their
15:08
Speaker 2: choices and, Even if we don't make the same— I mean,
15:11
Speaker 2: if you read to me, if we were on a
15:13
Speaker 2: political quiz show and you read, you know, a candidate
15:17
Speaker 2: said these lines, are they a Democrat or a Republican?
15:19
Speaker 2: In the last 80 years, right, we'd all say, oh,
15:21
Speaker 2: that's a Republican. Keep government out of our lives. Less government.
15:26
Speaker 2: I know better what's right for my community than the
15:28
Speaker 2: government does.
15:29
Speaker 3: Mm-hmm.
15:29
Speaker 2: And I just think it's been like this amazing feat
15:33
Speaker 2: that Kamala Harris, they've managed to co-opt that exact argument
15:39
Speaker 2: and say, I want you to make choices about what
15:43
Speaker 2: goes on in your community, in your household, in your life.
15:46
Speaker 2: That's you. The government shouldn't be telling you. Let's get
15:49
Speaker 2: government out of those decisions. And so back to your
15:52
Speaker 2: original question, what does that mean for these independents and
15:55
Speaker 2: undecided voters? I think that is a pretty powerful attention getter. Yeah.
16:00
Speaker 2: Because they have heard the same thing from Democratic candidates
16:05
Speaker 2: for a while now. Democracy is at risk. When we're
16:11
Speaker 2: the United States of America, there's nothing we can't do.
16:14
Speaker 2: This has been eight years of this. And this is
16:18
Speaker 2: a different idea.
16:20
Speaker 1: Yeah.
16:21
Speaker 2: And I think that's good. It all works together with
16:24
Speaker 2: this turn the page kind of moment that I thought
16:29
Speaker 2: was a huge opportunity when Biden said he wasn't going
16:31
Speaker 2: to seek the nomination. And I, in some ways, think
16:35
Speaker 2: that I wasn't sure Walz was the right turn the
16:38
Speaker 2: page candidate, but it's working out well.
16:41
Speaker 3: Yeah.
16:42
Speaker 1: No, I felt the same way. Talking about Trump, I
16:46
Speaker 1: mentioned that he sort of has stayed steady in terms
16:48
Speaker 1: of vote share, even with all that's happened. His favorability
16:51
Speaker 1: rating is higher. at this point than it was in
16:54
Speaker 1: even 2016 or 2020. Is this evidence of Trump having
16:58
Speaker 1: a high floor and a low ceiling? Like, what do
17:01
Speaker 1: you think's going on with Trump right now?
17:04
Speaker 2: You know, I mean, like, I think most people understand
17:06
Speaker 2: who he is and what he wants to do. And
17:11
Speaker 2: it's the same reason why, I mean, this seems like
17:13
Speaker 2: ancient history, but, like, remember when he was convicted of
17:15
Speaker 2: the 34? It feels like 10 years ago. But in
17:21
Speaker 2: that moment, everyone's like, wow, why haven't his numbers moved?
17:25
Speaker 2: And it's all baked in. Now, the assassination attempt, I think,
17:31
Speaker 2: that's a moment. And, you know, and that's sort of
17:36
Speaker 2: a moment for the country. It's not political. It's wow.
17:42
Speaker 2: Like this is a threat to America. And so I
17:46
Speaker 2: think there was, you know, you can see in the
17:49
Speaker 2: polling afterward, more people say they're going to vote for him. Now,
17:52
Speaker 2: this is all conflated with like the debate had just
17:54
Speaker 2: happened and there's a lot going on in a three
17:57
Speaker 2: week period.
17:58
Speaker 3: Yes.
17:58
Speaker 2: But so I don't obviously that's not baked in. But
18:03
Speaker 2: this is all part and parcel of calcification.
18:06
Speaker 1: Yeah.
18:06
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, sometime between now and
18:09
Speaker 2: Election Day. you know, unless the Harris campaign can keep
18:14
Speaker 2: the party going, there will be a moment when, you know,
18:18
Speaker 2: the curtain gets pulled back and we're like, oh, wait,
18:23
Speaker 2: we're still fighting over, you know, what's going to happen
18:26
Speaker 2: on the border, who gets to call themselves an American,
18:30
Speaker 2: you know, do women get to play, you know, who
18:34
Speaker 2: gets to play on women's sports teams and, All these
18:37
Speaker 2: things that they're very difficult topics because they're person based.
18:42
Speaker 3: Right.
18:42
Speaker 2: And I feel like we're just the reason I compare
18:44
Speaker 2: it to a party is we're getting a little bit
18:47
Speaker 2: as voters, a little bit of a reprieve from having
18:50
Speaker 2: to do the hard work, from having to think about
18:52
Speaker 2: the really difficult questions. And like my friends like to
18:57
Speaker 2: say to me, well, can't we just agree to disagree?
18:59
Speaker 2: And that's always like what you say to your kids
19:02
Speaker 2: right when you're trying to teach them how to be grown.
19:04
Speaker 2: Like you can agree to disagree. And so I feel
19:07
Speaker 2: like they think that they're being grownups when they say it.
19:10
Speaker 2: And I'm like, no. You know, someone has to sit
19:14
Speaker 2: down and write a policy.
19:16
Speaker 3: Right.
19:16
Speaker 2: Who do you get to marry? Right. You can't be
19:19
Speaker 2: married on Monday and Tuesday, not on Wednesday and Thursday,
19:22
Speaker 2: and on Friday only if you want to be. We
19:25
Speaker 2: can't agree to disagree.
19:25
Speaker 1: You can't get an abortion one day and not get
19:27
Speaker 1: an abortion another day.
19:28
Speaker 3: Right.
19:28
Speaker 2: There has to be a public policy. This is hard work.
19:31
Speaker 2: And I think we've, as voters, had a little bit
19:34
Speaker 2: of a break. from the stress of that.
19:37
Speaker 1: I talked to Anat Shankar-Osorio and Mike Podhorzer last episode.
19:41
Speaker 1: They have made the case for a couple of years
19:43
Speaker 1: now that the most powerful force in politics has been
19:47
Speaker 1: opposition to MAGA and Trump. And that ultimately Democrats need
19:51
Speaker 1: to make this election about MAGA in order to bring
19:55
Speaker 1: that coalition together in 2024 that won in 2020. That
20:00
Speaker 1: was clearly the Biden strategy. What do you think of
20:04
Speaker 1: that now? Because the conventions next week, And she's going
20:09
Speaker 1: to reintroduce herself to the country on her terms. She's
20:12
Speaker 1: got to define herself for people. She's going to talk
20:13
Speaker 1: about her agenda. But then there's also this anti-MAGA stuff.
20:18
Speaker 1: How do you see that?
20:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, again, like the real magic trick would
20:22
Speaker 2: be to take that set of people. And that's really
20:27
Speaker 2: what those guys were talking about. There's this majority of
20:30
Speaker 2: people who don't want MAGA in the White House. So
20:34
Speaker 2: the real trick would be to get those set of
20:36
Speaker 2: people involved. But instead of identifying the cutting line that
20:40
Speaker 2: separates them from everyone else as being MAGA and anti-MAGA,
20:44
Speaker 2: if you could get them to think of themselves in
20:47
Speaker 2: a different way, as a group, but in a different way.
20:50
Speaker 1: Not as an opposition to.
20:53
Speaker 3: Yeah.
20:53
Speaker 2: The freedom fighters.
20:54
Speaker 1: I don't know.
20:55
Speaker 2: I'm making this up as we go along. But like
20:57
Speaker 2: some way that is more centered on pretty clearly, if
21:02
Speaker 2: you had told me that like You know, Kamala Harris
21:04
Speaker 2: is going to end up as the candidate and people
21:06
Speaker 2: are going to be talking about how joyful her campaign is.
21:10
Speaker 2: A lot of that's going to be driven by her
21:11
Speaker 2: smile and her laugh. I would have been like, what
21:14
Speaker 2: planet are you on? You know, but that is literally
21:17
Speaker 2: what is happening. And I love that they're sort of
21:20
Speaker 2: leaning into it. And so you take that, you know,
21:24
Speaker 2: politics doesn't have to feel divisive all the time and
21:28
Speaker 2: take that joyfulness away. And you just create a group
21:31
Speaker 2: of those people that is more focused on her vision
21:35
Speaker 2: of this contest instead of Trump's vision.
21:38
Speaker 1: Right.
21:38
Speaker 2: When you're talking in your opponent's terms, you're losing. Yeah.
21:42
Speaker 2: And so let's not be Richard Nixon fighting John F.
21:46
Speaker 2: Kennedy by sneering like, oh, we've all been to New Frontiers.
21:51
Speaker 2: I mean, did we all know that was not the
21:53
Speaker 2: right answer?
21:53
Speaker 3: Right. Yes. So.
21:55
Speaker 2: Make the group something about their vision.
21:59
Speaker 1: I find this so interesting because I obviously come from
22:02
Speaker 1: this tradition, having worked for Obama, but then in the
22:06
Speaker 1: ensuing years, learned about sort of the power of negative partisanship.
22:12
Speaker 1: And it's so much of so many of these elections,
22:15
Speaker 1: and especially our calcified electorate, is driven by negative partisanship.
22:19
Speaker 1: And I'm trying to figure out how to square that
22:21
Speaker 1: with suddenly, again, we have this, let's build this sort
22:24
Speaker 1: of large coalition that is focused on something positive and
22:28
Speaker 1: exciting and what we're for and not what we're against?
22:31
Speaker 2: You know, I think that the secret is elites matter.
22:36
Speaker 2: And yes, like negative partisanship, which just so everyone's tracking,
22:40
Speaker 2: means that you really don't like the other side. You
22:43
Speaker 2: like your side a lot and you really don't like
22:45
Speaker 2: the other side. And that has been increasing over time,
22:47
Speaker 2: 100% for sure. There's lots of great work on this
22:51
Speaker 2: in political science.
22:52
Speaker 1: Okay.
22:53
Speaker 2: But That gets exacerbated in 2016 when Trump becomes the
22:58
Speaker 2: leader of the Republican Party and then moving through the
23:01
Speaker 2: COVID years into 2020 through that campaign. And then you've
23:05
Speaker 2: got Joe Biden, the leader of the Democratic Party, saying
23:09
Speaker 2: that those guys, they are putting democracy on the ballot.
23:12
Speaker 2: They're dangerous. And that's negative.
23:15
Speaker 1: Right.
23:15
Speaker 2: So the message is This is like, you know, we've
23:19
Speaker 2: known this for a long time. The messages that elites,
23:22
Speaker 2: whether that's candidates or media, are sending really do trickle
23:26
Speaker 2: down and affect voters. And so, you know, if she
23:30
Speaker 2: wants to go out there and be positive and hope, change, freedom, joy, like, yeah,
23:37
Speaker 2: you know, that is going to have an effect on people.
23:41
Speaker 2: And so I don't underestimate the power of political entrepreneurship
23:46
Speaker 2: and political leadership.
23:48
Speaker 1: Honestly, that's good to know, because otherwise it does. Some
23:51
Speaker 1: of the calcification stuff feels like we're just all stuck
23:54
Speaker 1: and it's less of an election than like a census.
23:57
Speaker 1: And you just who you are and who you voted for.
23:59
Speaker 1: That's what that's what's going on.
24:01
Speaker 2: I just I want to caution you there because calcification
24:03
Speaker 2: doesn't have to be dire. You know, there's just a
24:06
Speaker 2: few good things. People are paying attention. They know what
24:09
Speaker 2: the parties stand for. They know what they want so
24:12
Speaker 2: they can identify which party they'd rather see, which world
24:15
Speaker 2: they'd rather have built. Calcification doesn't mean the same party
24:19
Speaker 2: is going to win every election. I mean, we've seen
24:22
Speaker 2: that's not true. It just means the elections are going
24:24
Speaker 2: to be close. And so that's all. That's all. It
24:28
Speaker 2: doesn't have to mean that we're fighting. It doesn't have
24:31
Speaker 2: to be negative or confrontational. You know, yes, the worlds
24:34
Speaker 2: are more different than they were in the 1980s, 90s,
24:39
Speaker 2: and early 2000s. But that doesn't mean that it has
24:42
Speaker 2: to be as divisive as it's been.
24:44
Speaker 1: Well, calcification aside— Last question. Democrats have been talking, media, pundits, everyone,
24:51
Speaker 1: since I think maybe 2012. Like, could this be an
24:55
Speaker 1: election where the fever breaks, right? And the fever being
24:58
Speaker 1: sort of the more radical faction of the Republican Party
25:02
Speaker 1: that has now taken over much of the party. And
25:05
Speaker 1: we saw that with Trump, and it's really Trump's party.
25:07
Speaker 1: If Trump is defeated this time, under these circumstances, after
25:13
Speaker 1: this many years, Do you see any possibility that maybe
25:17
Speaker 1: the fever breaks or that we get out of this?
25:20
Speaker 2: I think that it isn't impossible, but it may be unlikely.
25:24
Speaker 2: But it does depend a little bit on what the
25:26
Speaker 2: outcome of 2024 looks like. So candidates want to win elections.
25:32
Speaker 2: And the best way to do that is to have
25:35
Speaker 2: a strategy that you know has won elections in the past.
25:38
Speaker 2: So if they lose and they lose very narrowly, There
25:42
Speaker 2: will probably be. Maybe it will be J.D.
25:44
Speaker 3: Vance.
25:44
Speaker 2: Maybe it won't be, depending on how sort of beat
25:46
Speaker 2: up he gets. It's interesting to think vice presidential nominees
25:52
Speaker 2: who are not on winning tickets, they don't really reemerge.
25:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true.
25:57
Speaker 2: But maybe it'll be him. But if they lose very narrowly,
26:00
Speaker 2: there will be someone else who comes with the same,
26:04
Speaker 2: I'm the heir apparent to this. Maybe it'll be Don Jr.
26:06
Speaker 2: Who knows? If they lose by a bigger margin... Then
26:12
Speaker 2: the next candidate who wants to win that election on
26:15
Speaker 2: the Republican ticket has to say, people aren't really buying
26:18
Speaker 2: what we're selling. Maybe we need a pivot. But if
26:22
Speaker 2: it's close, people are kind of buying what we're selling.
26:26
Speaker 2: If we can tweak the rules a little bit, if
26:27
Speaker 2: we can get out a few more voters in two states,
26:31
Speaker 2: we can win. So it's a little too soon to tell.
26:35
Speaker 1: And again, it's to your point, the candidates matter, the
26:37
Speaker 1: elites matter, the message they send matters.
26:40
Speaker 2: I think it all matters.
26:41
Speaker 1: And winning big in this calcified election.
26:44
Speaker 2: Very hard.
26:44
Speaker 1: Doesn't have to be that many points.
26:46
Speaker 2: Well, that's true. That's true. Three points, you know, again,
26:50
Speaker 2: the Electoral College is really what we're talking about. So
26:52
Speaker 2: what is that margin of votes for Electoral College wins?
26:57
Speaker 3: Right.
26:57
Speaker 2: And it's been, you know, 77,000 in 2016, whatever it was, 44,000
27:03
Speaker 2: in 2020. You know, it's been getting smaller and smaller. Okay.
27:07
Speaker 1: Lynn Vavrick, thank you as always.
27:09
Speaker 2: You're welcome.
27:10
Speaker 1: Coming by and sort of giving us the bigger picture
27:13
Speaker 1: where we are right now. Who knows what will happen
27:16
Speaker 1: between now and next time we talk.
27:18
Speaker 2: I mean, oh my gosh.
27:19
Speaker 1: Not going to predict anything.
27:20
Speaker 2: Craziness.
27:21
Speaker 1: Thank you for making us smarter as always.
27:23
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for having me.
27:24
Speaker 3: Okay.
27:39
Speaker 1: We got the lay of the land from Lynn, and
27:41
Speaker 1: now we'll hear about what we have to do to
27:43
Speaker 1: win this thing from former Obama campaign manager and current
27:46
Speaker 1: Harris senior advisor, David Plouffe. David Plouffe, welcome back to
27:50
Speaker 1: the wilderness.
27:51
Speaker 3: Jon Favreau, it's always good to be with you.
27:53
Speaker 1: Last time you were on, I asked you to scare
27:56
Speaker 1: the shit out of our listeners about the dangers of
27:58
Speaker 1: a second Trump term. You're now trying to prevent that
28:01
Speaker 1: from happening by coming out of campaign retirement. You've recently
28:05
Speaker 1: joined the Harris-Walls campaign as senior advisor for the Path
28:08
Speaker 1: to 270. and strategy. Tell me about what that role
28:12
Speaker 1: entails and how they got you to upend your life
28:16
Speaker 1: and join the campaign.
28:18
Speaker 3: Well, John, it basically, what it means is I do
28:20
Speaker 3: whatever Jen O'Malley, Dylan and Kamala Harris asked me to do. So,
28:23
Speaker 3: you know, it's a campaign you've been there.
28:25
Speaker 1: I have.
28:25
Speaker 3: So I think there's a lot of excitement, which is amazing.
28:29
Speaker 3: Obviously the race now, I think looks much more winnable
28:32
Speaker 3: than it did a few weeks ago. We're back to
28:34
Speaker 3: multiple pathways to 270. but it's a really abbreviated timeframe.
28:37
Speaker 3: So she's got to introduce herself, what the race is about,
28:40
Speaker 3: her ideas, and obviously continue to make the case about
28:43
Speaker 3: how dangerous a Trump second term would be. So one
28:46
Speaker 3: thing that's interesting, you remember this from the early Obama days,
28:48
Speaker 3: sometimes when you're faced with just a crushing calendar, it
28:54
Speaker 3: really quickens decision-making. And I think that's useful. There's just
28:57
Speaker 3: a lot to get done. So we, with the best
28:59
Speaker 3: evidence and data we have and best instincts are making
29:01
Speaker 3: a bunch of decision, but Jen did a great job
29:04
Speaker 3: of getting that campaign ready for general election. Obviously enormously
29:07
Speaker 3: challenging to have a switch at the top of the ticket,
29:10
Speaker 3: but they've kind of, you know, dealt with it without
29:12
Speaker 3: missing a beat. I've been spending a bunch of time
29:13
Speaker 3: in Wilmington. I'm super impressed by the team. And here
29:17
Speaker 3: we are with a chance to keep Trump out of
29:19
Speaker 3: the Oval Office and elect somebody who I think is
29:21
Speaker 3: a really exciting candidate, would be a great president.
29:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to ask, I mean, you've been
29:24
Speaker 1: on so many campaigns. What's it been like launching a
29:28
Speaker 1: campaign with an entirely new candidate with 100 Days to Go?
29:33
Speaker 1: What are some things that would surprise people about that?
29:36
Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a lot of great things about it, right?
29:38
Speaker 3: People are very enthusiastic. I think a lot of people
29:40
Speaker 3: are signing up and they say, hey, you know what?
29:42
Speaker 3: I can do everything I can for three months, maybe
29:43
Speaker 3: not for two years. Obviously, I think the reality was
29:47
Speaker 3: there was a lot of voters, Democrats, independents, Republicans, not
29:50
Speaker 3: thrilled about the rematch. And she's a breath of fresh air.
29:53
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of excitement. Obviously, you've got to
29:55
Speaker 3: get ads out the door.
29:56
Speaker 1: You have to.
29:56
Speaker 3: Understand where the electorate is. which is going to be
29:59
Speaker 3: slightly different in a Harris-Trump race than Biden-Trump. Obviously, you've
30:02
Speaker 3: got to get new signs. You've got a whole Democratic
30:04
Speaker 3: convention that has to be kind of rewired to some extent.
30:08
Speaker 3: Trump did one debate. Now we've got to get him
30:10
Speaker 3: to do at least one more debate. So it's like
30:12
Speaker 3: multiple fire hoses aimed at you every day. That means
30:15
Speaker 3: you've got to prioritize what really matters, what do we
30:17
Speaker 3: really have to dig into, what do we don't. But again,
30:20
Speaker 3: it's a great campaign team, and it's a mixture of
30:22
Speaker 3: people who were there in 20, some people who worked
30:25
Speaker 3: with us back in 12 and 8. You've got a
30:27
Speaker 3: lot of younger people who are bringing their great ideas,
30:30
Speaker 3: some of the best ideas of the people who might,
30:31
Speaker 3: this might be their first or second campaign. That's always
30:34
Speaker 3: the blessings of these things, as you know. So, and
30:36
Speaker 3: obviously the American people and people all around the country,
30:39
Speaker 3: I mean, the volunteer signups in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,
30:43
Speaker 3: every battleground state's been enormous. And a winner race like that,
30:47
Speaker 3: that matters. I mean, you gotta have people out there
30:49
Speaker 3: talking to people, registering voters, sharing content on social media.
30:52
Speaker 3: The book you guys wrote is a great guide for
30:55
Speaker 3: how to do that. And I think it's manageable for
30:57
Speaker 3: people to say, you know what? I'm going to really
30:59
Speaker 3: give a little more extra time in this than I
31:01
Speaker 3: might normally do because it's only 90 days.
31:03
Speaker 1: That makes sense.
31:04
Speaker 3: Hell, by the time this airs, it'll be down to
31:05
Speaker 3: 80 days. So it's an achievable time for people to say, okay,
31:10
Speaker 3: I'm going to take stock of my life and figure
31:11
Speaker 3: out how many hours can I give every week to this?
31:14
Speaker 1: That's great. Let's talk about the path to 270. How
31:17
Speaker 1: has your thinking about the map changed from when Biden
31:20
Speaker 1: was the nominee to now that Harris is the nominee?
31:23
Speaker 3: Well, listen, I think at the end of the days post-debate,
31:27
Speaker 3: The Biden campaign really was down to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,
31:30
Speaker 3: and the second congressional district of Nebraska. And obviously the
31:33
Speaker 3: numbers didn't look good in those places. But, you know,
31:36
Speaker 3: you probably had a plausible path. Maybe you would have
31:38
Speaker 3: a great debate. Trump makes some mistakes. The economy recovers
31:41
Speaker 3: a little bit. You have a chance. But Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada,
31:45
Speaker 3: I think we're off the table. They're back on the
31:47
Speaker 3: table in a big way. So she can win the
31:50
Speaker 3: blue wall in Nebraska, too, and win. I think she
31:53
Speaker 3: can win Nevada and Georgia. I think North Carolina is
31:55
Speaker 3: going to be really close. Because you know, you and
31:58
Speaker 3: I went through these races to win some of these states.
32:01
Speaker 3: You're going to have to really max out turnout, max
32:04
Speaker 3: out vote share amongst young voters, Hispanic voters, Asian voters,
32:08
Speaker 3: Black voters, suburban women who have become a base for us,
32:10
Speaker 3: but also do well enough with swing suburban voters and
32:13
Speaker 3: keep Trump's margins down in some exurban and rural areas.
32:16
Speaker 3: And so far, the data suggests that she can do that.
32:18
Speaker 3: There hasn't been a collapse from Biden where that was
32:21
Speaker 3: probably his strongest. Rural areas, seniors over 65, even when
32:25
Speaker 3: he was losing the race, he was doing probably what
32:27
Speaker 3: you'd like to see there or close to it. So
32:30
Speaker 3: that's my view is, you know, you don't want to
32:32
Speaker 3: come down to having make every shot to win the presidency.
32:36
Speaker 3: You want to be able to say, you know what,
32:38
Speaker 3: maybe two to three of the states we target, we
32:40
Speaker 3: won't win, but we can still win. But I think
32:42
Speaker 3: there's a credible pathway in all of them. I think
32:43
Speaker 3: Nevada has changed quite a bit. Georgia and North Carolina,
32:46
Speaker 3: I think, are dead even right now. Arizona as well.
32:49
Speaker 3: And obviously, I think in the blue wall states, we've
32:51
Speaker 3: seen a pretty dramatic change in those states from where
32:54
Speaker 3: it was. So it puts a lot of pressure on Trump.
32:56
Speaker 3: And so You know, hey, before the switch, Trump was
32:58
Speaker 3: running around Minnesota and New Hampshire and New Mexico and
33:01
Speaker 3: talking about expanding the map. I think those days are over.
33:04
Speaker 3: I think we're back to the core seven and that
33:06
Speaker 3: really important congressional district in Nebraska. And of course, listen,
33:09
Speaker 3: I mean, Florida, Texas, there are states that are close. But,
33:12
Speaker 3: you know, a presidential campaign has to be absolutely sure
33:15
Speaker 3: they can win it. And nobody's better than General Malley
33:17
Speaker 3: Dillon about being careful about it. She says, if you're
33:20
Speaker 3: going to go into a state, you've got to be
33:22
Speaker 3: all in.
33:22
Speaker 1: Yeah.
33:23
Speaker 3: You know, and that was certainly always my view back,
33:24
Speaker 3: you know. Head fakes aren't worth shit. Like you got
33:27
Speaker 3: to basically be all in. You don't have a second
33:29
Speaker 3: to waste or a person to waste or a dollar
33:31
Speaker 3: to waste. So I think that's the battlefield for now.
33:35
Speaker 1: It seems like she has consolidated a lot of the
33:38
Speaker 1: traditional Democratic constituencies that had been flirting with either third
33:43
Speaker 1: party or staying home or in some cases, Trump, Black voters,
33:48
Speaker 1: Latino voters, younger voters. It seems like she's doing obviously
33:51
Speaker 1: much better with those groups than Biden. Do you think
33:53
Speaker 1: she has more work to do with older voters or
33:56
Speaker 1: non-college white voters than Biden did? I know you said
33:58
Speaker 1: that her numbers so far seem like they're holding rural voters,
34:01
Speaker 1: but are those groups of voters that you guys are
34:04
Speaker 1: going to be focusing on particularly?
34:07
Speaker 3: Well, John, as you know, it's an hour-to-hour, day-to-day evaluation
34:11
Speaker 3: of that, right? And it will shift from day-to-day, week-to-week.
34:15
Speaker 3: But I would say as it relates to base voters, yes,
34:19
Speaker 3: huge improvement, but more room to grow. So that's got
34:22
Speaker 3: to be a huge focus. Yeah. keeping Donald Trump to
34:25
Speaker 3: eight to 10% with the black vote is a lot
34:27
Speaker 3: different than him getting 15 to 16, getting that Hispanic
34:31
Speaker 3: vote share. And when we think about like the black vote,
34:33
Speaker 3: Hispanic vote, any cohort, what it matters is the battleground states.
34:36
Speaker 3: When you look at the national Hispanic vote, that's gonna
34:39
Speaker 3: be a little bit skewed because of the Cuban vote
34:41
Speaker 3: down in Florida. But the Hispanic vote in these battleground states,
34:45
Speaker 3: if you can get north of 60, I mean, hell,
34:47
Speaker 3: it looked like Trump a month ago might be able
34:49
Speaker 3: to win the Hispanic vote in those states. I think
34:51
Speaker 3: she can build a margin And the same thing with
34:53
Speaker 3: younger voters. So I think there's still room to grow.
34:56
Speaker 3: So that's incredibly important. I think with swing voters, as
35:00
Speaker 3: we traditionally understand them, which are of every race, every ethnicity,
35:03
Speaker 3: but true swing voters, I think her being a new candidate,
35:07
Speaker 3: kind of this turn the page moment will help with them.
35:09
Speaker 3: She's got a lot of work to do to close
35:11
Speaker 3: the sale, but I think she's got a better opening.
35:13
Speaker 3: And then we're just going to have to watch those
35:15
Speaker 3: rural voters. Again, that was one of the reasons Biden won,
35:18
Speaker 3: as you know, in 20 was he outperformed Hillary in
35:21
Speaker 3: the eerie counties of the world, which is a big county,
35:23
Speaker 3: but also some of those small counties, just to use
35:25
Speaker 3: Pennsylvania as an example. I mean, the way to think
35:27
Speaker 3: about it, Donald Trump's going to win most rural counties.
35:29
Speaker 3: And if he wins them by 34 rather than 44,
35:33
Speaker 3: it's a big difference. And listen, some of those counties
35:36
Speaker 3: in 16, he was winning like 85, 15. You really
35:39
Speaker 3: want to prevent those because those add up. So that's
35:41
Speaker 3: the thing I always tell people, like the math to
35:43
Speaker 3: win a battleground state is just super complicated. And when
35:47
Speaker 3: you're feeling good about one segment of the electorate, Then
35:49
Speaker 3: you begin to get concerned about another. Like, you know,
35:51
Speaker 3: you're never all green. I never was anyway. There's always
35:54
Speaker 3: something that could go a little bit better on the dashboard.
35:57
Speaker 3: But I think the early signs are quite good. And,
35:59
Speaker 3: you know, we clearly, as it's stated in polls, have
36:01
Speaker 3: an enthusiasm gap. I think that's true in terms of fundraising.
36:05
Speaker 3: Definitely true in terms of volunteer engagement. activity where I
36:07
Speaker 3: think Kamala will have a huge advantage over Trump. But
36:10
Speaker 3: we have big moments left. Convention will be a big moment.
36:12
Speaker 3: That first debate will be a big moment. Trump is
36:14
Speaker 3: super lazy this time. You remember in 16, he was
36:16
Speaker 3: out there humping it. He wasn't 20 in part because
36:19
Speaker 3: he didn't give a shit about COVID, so he was reckless.
36:21
Speaker 3: But his schedule is remarkably lethargic. And there's two things,
36:25
Speaker 3: maybe both. One, he may just not have the stamina
36:28
Speaker 3: or his team really believes he hurts himself when he's
36:30
Speaker 3: in a state, but then I'm not sure you do
36:32
Speaker 3: these press conferences. So That is a huge advantage. I
36:35
Speaker 3: still believe that candidate on ground, you know, Kamala and
36:38
Speaker 3: Tim Walz are going to be on a bus over
36:40
Speaker 3: this weekend heading into the election and be all over
36:42
Speaker 3: the battleground states. That matters, particularly for a candidate like her,
36:44
Speaker 3: who a lot of voters, they might know her name
36:47
Speaker 3: and that's it. So it's an opportunity to introduce your biography,
36:50
Speaker 3: your values and the contrast in this race. So to me,
36:54
Speaker 3: that's an important ingredient here as we think about these
36:56
Speaker 3: battleground states is I think we're going to have a
36:58
Speaker 3: stronger ground effort with human beings on the ground, like
37:01
Speaker 3: talking to their neighbors. But I also think it looks
37:03
Speaker 3: like we're going to have more candidates. And listen, J.D.
37:05
Speaker 3: Vance is running around at a decent clip, which is fine.
37:07
Speaker 3: I mean, he's the least popular vice presidential pick in history,
37:10
Speaker 3: including Palin. And I will say this about Vance. You know,
37:13
Speaker 3: I think a legitimate thing, you know, Trump is now
37:16
Speaker 3: the oldest person ever to seek this office as a nominee.
37:20
Speaker 3: Certainly in our research, we're starting to see more voters
37:22
Speaker 3: now recognize that, you know, Biden kind of blocked that
37:25
Speaker 3: for him. You're starting to hear people refer to him
37:27
Speaker 3: as geriatric and he doesn't have plans for the future.
37:30
Speaker 3: And this is where J.D. Vance is relevant. If you're
37:32
Speaker 3: the oldest person ever to seek the office as a
37:34
Speaker 3: major party nominee, it's fair to ask, what if something
37:37
Speaker 3: were to happen to you if you got elected?
37:39
Speaker 1: And J.D.
37:39
Speaker 3: Vance is not a great answer for voters, particularly women voters,
37:42
Speaker 3: but all voters. I mean, he's a huge problem. And
37:45
Speaker 3: you can see when Trump gets asked about him, it's
37:47
Speaker 3: super uncomfortable. He'll say he doesn't matter or- It's great.
37:50
Speaker 3: So it's fascinating to me, but there's a lot of
37:52
Speaker 3: different things here. So that's one of the challenges of
37:54
Speaker 3: the campaign is you got Project 2025, you obviously have
37:57
Speaker 3: abortion- You've got Trump's attacks on democracy. You've got his age.
38:01
Speaker 3: There's a lot of things that concern voters. And our
38:04
Speaker 3: job is to make sure that, you know, we deliver
38:06
Speaker 3: those message properly to the voters that care, but also
38:09
Speaker 3: to deliver a really positive, forward looking agenda for Kamala Harris.
38:13
Speaker 3: And she's going to start laying that out starting Friday
38:16
Speaker 3: of this week with, I think, an important speech about
38:18
Speaker 3: her ideas about how to cut costs for middle class families.
38:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to ask about sort of the
38:22
Speaker 1: mix of messaging. Like Biden campaign strategy, which I think
38:27
Speaker 1: was the right one, was to make the race about Trump,
38:29
Speaker 1: remind people of who he is, what he did, what
38:32
Speaker 1: he'll do if he wins again. Part of the necessity
38:34
Speaker 1: of that strategy was that voters know who Joe Biden is,
38:37
Speaker 1: and most of them didn't approve of the job he
38:39
Speaker 1: was doing, so you want to make it about Trump.
38:41
Speaker 1: Most voters know who Kamala Harris is, but they don't
38:43
Speaker 1: know a lot about her and what she'd do as president.
38:46
Speaker 1: How do you think about the balance between making the
38:49
Speaker 1: campaign's message about Harris and making it about Trump?
38:53
Speaker 3: Well, John, you asked about time, the benefits and some
38:57
Speaker 3: of the challenges of time. We don't have much time.
38:59
Speaker 3: And you think about it, it's not just through Election Day.
39:01
Speaker 3: A lot of people are going to vote. Ballots start
39:03
Speaker 3: going out in battleground states very soon in North Carolina
39:07
Speaker 3: and Wisconsin. So you've got to introduce her biography, the
39:12
Speaker 3: things she's accomplished for people, why she did them, her values,
39:15
Speaker 3: what got her into public service. You've got to talk about,
39:18
Speaker 3: here's what I want to do on the economy, on
39:20
Speaker 3: job creation, on cutting costs. on healthcare, on protecting Medicare
39:24
Speaker 3: and Social Security, on foreign policy. But you're going to
39:27
Speaker 3: have to do that, I think, as much as possible
39:30
Speaker 3: with a contrast with Trump. So I think, yeah, she's
39:33
Speaker 3: got more to do than Biden did because she does
39:35
Speaker 3: have to introduce herself, reintroduce herself, provide more depth there.
39:38
Speaker 3: Super important. You know, voters understanding where someone comes from,
39:43
Speaker 3: how they grew up informs their values. It's super important
39:46
Speaker 3: for voters. So we have a lot of work to
39:47
Speaker 3: do there. But we also have to lay out a
39:49
Speaker 3: searing contrast. The way I think about it is you
39:51
Speaker 3: want as many voters as possible to think, okay, I'm
39:53
Speaker 3: going to compare Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the
39:55
Speaker 3: next four years. Let's see if they're both present. What
39:58
Speaker 3: would that mean for me and my family? And I
40:00
Speaker 3: still believe in every battleground state, there's more than 50%
40:04
Speaker 3: of the people, all things being equal, that would not
40:06
Speaker 3: like a return of Trump. By the way, I wish
40:08
Speaker 3: that number was 60 or 65. It's not. But it's
40:11
Speaker 3: enough to win the election. And we've got to make
40:13
Speaker 3: sure we tap into those people. But that's going to
40:14
Speaker 3: require not just the argument against him. It's going to require...
40:18
Speaker 3: I think, building confidence and real knowledge about who she
40:22
Speaker 3: is and what she stands for.
40:38
Speaker 1: I was going to ask about Trump because the guy
40:41
Speaker 1: over the last couple of months, you know, convicted of
40:44
Speaker 1: a felony, survives an assassination attempt. wins the debate and
40:48
Speaker 1: his vote share hasn't really changed. Her vote share has
40:52
Speaker 1: changed from Biden and even just, you know, as the
40:54
Speaker 1: days go on, his hasn't. He's also like maybe more
40:57
Speaker 1: popular at this point favorability wise than he was in
41:00
Speaker 1: 16 and 20. What do you think's going on with Trump?
41:03
Speaker 3: Well, I think Republicans now, I mean, his takeover is complete.
41:07
Speaker 3: So I think you see Republicans just giving him on
41:10
Speaker 3: questions like approval a stronger yes. It has become the cult.
41:15
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, he's guaranteed 46% of the vote
41:18
Speaker 3: in every battleground state. He won the presidency in 2016
41:23
Speaker 3: in some states under 47%. That was his national vote share.
41:26
Speaker 3: That was his national vote share in 20 as well.
41:28
Speaker 3: He got under 47, but there was less third party votes.
41:32
Speaker 3: So he was not able to get 270. I think
41:36
Speaker 3: that in some battleground states, he's at that 46. There
41:39
Speaker 3: are some where he's 47, 48, and that's the challenge
41:42
Speaker 3: of the campaign is to get him back to 46. Now,
41:44
Speaker 3: To your point, the third party vote share is collapsing
41:47
Speaker 3: in the Harris Trump race. And you'd like to think
41:51
Speaker 3: it's because, you know, RFK Jr. is eating dogs and
41:54
Speaker 3: throwing bears in Central Park and all the things he says.
41:57
Speaker 3: But I just think this dynamic is different. And there's
41:59
Speaker 3: some evidence that RFK may be taking a little more
42:01
Speaker 3: vote from Trump, although I think it's too early to
42:04
Speaker 3: really know what that'll be like on Election Day. So
42:06
Speaker 3: I think, yes, there are some people right now saying
42:10
Speaker 3: they're going to vote for Donald Trump. If they're a
42:12
Speaker 3: firm voter, they're not going anywhere. But a bunch of
42:14
Speaker 3: those people are soft. And so, yeah, when you think
42:16
Speaker 3: about it, you have to obviously max out your registration.
42:19
Speaker 3: You've got to max out your turnout. You've got to
42:21
Speaker 3: max out your vote share across all these cohorts. You've
42:23
Speaker 3: got to win the majority of the undecided vote. Then
42:26
Speaker 3: you've got to pull a little bit of off him.
42:28
Speaker 3: And I think that what I've seen in the research
42:30
Speaker 3: is those voters who might be soft Trump, kind of
42:33
Speaker 3: flirting with Trump, they're super curious about Kamala Harris. They're like, okay,
42:38
Speaker 3: a new entry now. I'm excited about that. I want
42:40
Speaker 3: to learn more about her. And if she can answer
42:42
Speaker 3: the mail there in terms of who she is and
42:44
Speaker 3: how she'll fight for them, and that she will be
42:46
Speaker 3: a better president for people like them. She can win
42:50
Speaker 3: this race. But yeah, we got to pull a little
42:52
Speaker 3: off of them. And I think it's really important for
42:53
Speaker 3: people to understand that your question is super important. It
42:56
Speaker 3: may not seem like a point, point and a half
42:59
Speaker 3: matters in terms of him being a little stronger, but
43:01
Speaker 3: it does.
43:02
Speaker 2: Yeah.
43:02
Speaker 3: And that's mathematically something that has to be addressed. You've
43:06
Speaker 3: got to get him down a little bit. Now, what
43:08
Speaker 3: I've seen is there's some states where he's already fallen
43:11
Speaker 3: kind of to the point where he wouldn't win the
43:13
Speaker 3: election at the level he's at now. But there's some
43:15
Speaker 3: other states where he's still in that like 48, 49 range. And,
43:19
Speaker 3: you know, you'd like to get him back down to
43:20
Speaker 3: where he was in 16 and 20.
43:22
Speaker 1: There was this thought some people expressed during the Biden
43:25
Speaker 1: Trump race where. Contrary to popular belief, Democrats would actually
43:29
Speaker 1: do better if it was a lower turnout election, if
43:31
Speaker 1: the electorate ended up looking more like a midterm election
43:35
Speaker 1: where Democrats have been doing well for the last several years.
43:38
Speaker 1: It does seem like now we're back in a world
43:40
Speaker 1: where increasing turnout, registering more voters is going to help us.
43:45
Speaker 1: But how do you think about those sort of not non-voters,
43:47
Speaker 1: but people, occasional voters, sporadic voters?
43:50
Speaker 2: Right.
43:50
Speaker 3: Well, So, you know, in politics, like in life, it's
43:53
Speaker 3: like important to delineate between what you can control and
43:56
Speaker 3: what you can't control. So what you can control is
43:59
Speaker 3: trying to register and turn out all the voters that
44:01
Speaker 3: you're pretty confident would vote for Kamala Harris, right? And
44:04
Speaker 3: so I think that's what you can not control, but
44:06
Speaker 3: you can control your effort and your thought and your
44:08
Speaker 3: resources there. You know, I think the question would be,
44:10
Speaker 3: so there was a lot of experts who were saying
44:12
Speaker 3: in the Biden and Trump race that maybe turnout could
44:14
Speaker 3: be quite a bit lower than 2020, maybe let's say
44:16
Speaker 3: 130 million. So let's say it is not going to
44:20
Speaker 3: be 130. Let's say it's 150, 155, 160, 165. The
44:25
Speaker 3: question is, OK, that added vote, who's it going to benefit?
44:29
Speaker 3: And there's no doubt that Trump will get some of
44:30
Speaker 3: that vote. Polls were showing that he was doing a
44:33
Speaker 3: little bit better. But I think Harris is going to
44:35
Speaker 3: be able to bring a lot of new people out
44:37
Speaker 3: as well, do well with new voters. Some of those
44:40
Speaker 3: are younger voters. They're excited about her. And I think
44:43
Speaker 3: we've already seen some pretty encouraging data in terms of
44:46
Speaker 3: registration since she became the candidate. And I think that
44:49
Speaker 3: the campaign obviously has a very good sense of who
44:52
Speaker 3: are voters at risk of not turning out, who would
44:54
Speaker 3: support her. So a lot of effort is going to
44:56
Speaker 3: go in there. And as you know, campaign can have
44:59
Speaker 3: all the money in the world, all the people resources
45:01
Speaker 3: in the world. But if there's not enthusiasm, it's hard
45:03
Speaker 3: to get that job done. You can't manufacture that. And
45:06
Speaker 3: right now we're seeing real enthusiasm for her. And I
45:08
Speaker 3: think that's going to matter a great deal. So what
45:10
Speaker 3: you want is if there is going to be bigger turnout,
45:12
Speaker 3: you just want to make sure that you've gotten your
45:14
Speaker 3: appropriate share of that. So you feel comfortable that you
45:17
Speaker 3: can win the race. at 130 million, 140, 150, 160.
45:20
Speaker 3: And my guess, it's a little bit early now to
45:24
Speaker 3: predict exactly what the turnout's going to be battleground state
45:26
Speaker 3: by battleground state. But by mid-September, I think we'll have
45:29
Speaker 3: a very good sense of that.
45:31
Speaker 1: Last question. We spent a lot of time this season
45:33
Speaker 1: trying to arm volunteers with advice and messaging that they
45:37
Speaker 1: can use when they're talking to people in their lives
45:39
Speaker 1: who haven't yet made up their minds about November. You're
45:41
Speaker 1: seeing all the research, you're talking to voters, you're figuring
45:44
Speaker 1: out what resonates with ads. What advice would you give
45:47
Speaker 1: to folks listening right now regarding what they should tell
45:51
Speaker 1: their family and friends and even strangers to get them
45:54
Speaker 1: to turn out for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, who
45:56
Speaker 1: aren't sure if they want to do that yet? Right.
45:58
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, I mean, I think, listen, let's
46:01
Speaker 3: just use an example. You and I today, I think
46:03
Speaker 3: on that awful platform X, both lifted up this video
46:07
Speaker 3: of the Project 2025 founder basically saying it's all bullshit.
46:10
Speaker 3: This is Trump's plan and it's a wink and a nod.
46:14
Speaker 3: You and I did that. Like what I would say
46:16
Speaker 3: is anytime someone who supports Kamala Harris sees something that
46:19
Speaker 3: moves them, maybe it is something about Trump. Maybe it
46:22
Speaker 3: is an ad. You know, she and Walls are going
46:25
Speaker 3: to have this YouTube video. They're hanging out together and
46:27
Speaker 3: it's quite a warm. Maybe it's that.
46:29
Speaker 1: It's great.
46:30
Speaker 3: Maybe it's a friend or family member of them who
46:32
Speaker 3: made a video. Say, you know, this is why I'm
46:34
Speaker 3: voting for Harris. Like, don't underestimate the power of we
46:38
Speaker 3: all carry around these amplification devices, which are phones and laptops.
46:42
Speaker 3: So whether you're on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, email list, text,
46:47
Speaker 3: share it. And I always tell people like the reason
46:51
Speaker 3: to do it is some of those people who think
46:55
Speaker 3: just like you will share it as well. And maybe
46:58
Speaker 3: you live in California or Texas, but your cousin or
47:02
Speaker 3: your friend shares it and their friend in Pennsylvania sees
47:05
Speaker 3: it and they share it in their cohort. Like they
47:07
Speaker 3: have Fox and Breitbart and Sinclair. They have their command
47:10
Speaker 3: and control, you know, megaphone system. We don't. I mean,
47:13
Speaker 3: we need people to share content that speaks to them.
47:16
Speaker 3: And there's nothing more organic. This is why I'm voting
47:18
Speaker 3: for Kamala Harris or this is why I've decided to vote. Right.
47:22
Speaker 1: Yeah.
47:22
Speaker 3: And of course, people should register on the Harris website.
47:26
Speaker 3: And you guys obviously have an amazing property with Vote
47:29
Speaker 3: Save to get more formally involved. But everybody has the
47:33
Speaker 3: opportunity in the course of their daily life. To share
47:36
Speaker 3: stuff that speaks to them. By the way, it doesn't
47:37
Speaker 3: even have to be Kamala. It could be that prescription
47:40
Speaker 3: drug announcement today from the White House. Make sure people
47:43
Speaker 3: know about that. And that Trump basically just called that
47:47
Speaker 3: today in his press conference a con job, lowering prescription
47:50
Speaker 3: drug prices. So I just think everyone's got to take
47:53
Speaker 3: it on themselves. And I get that it can be
47:54
Speaker 3: an ugly task because you share that stuff publicly and
47:58
Speaker 3: your MAGA brother fires back and it's ugly, but we
48:01
Speaker 3: just got to bowl through it. And everybody's got to
48:04
Speaker 3: basically use what devices they have in their life, particularly
48:08
Speaker 3: for Kamala Harris, who a lot of people don't know
48:10
Speaker 3: that much about right now. And so we got to
48:12
Speaker 3: fill in those blanks, right? And I think that you
48:15
Speaker 3: never know how you're going to reach somebody, even with
48:17
Speaker 3: all the money that's spent with advertising and targeting, and
48:20
Speaker 3: there'll be presidential debates. You never know if it's that
48:23
Speaker 3: little piece of video or an infographic or something you
48:25
Speaker 3: shared that somehow reaches its way to somebody in Wausau, Wisconsin,
48:32
Speaker 3: or in Wilmington, North Carolina, that then goes around in
48:35
Speaker 3: that circle and it reaches people and it has an effect.
48:39
Speaker 1: Yeah. In terms of messaging, it does sound like what
48:42
Speaker 1: you had previously said, contrasts that are future oriented seem
48:46
Speaker 1: to be sort of the most effective ways to persuade
48:49
Speaker 1: people that like, this is your life under Kamala Harris.
48:52
Speaker 1: This is your life under Donald Trump. Yeah.
48:54
Speaker 3: Well, you know, Project 2025 is Trump's blueprint. So we've
48:57
Speaker 3: got to make sure everybody knows about that, what's in that.
49:00
Speaker 3: The reason he's running away from it, and this is
49:01
Speaker 3: a guy who tends not to run away from anything.
49:03
Speaker 3: He doubles down as he realizes how toxic it is.
49:06
Speaker 3: This is what he'll do on abortion, obviously. We got
49:09
Speaker 3: to also remember, you got to tell the whole story.
49:11
Speaker 3: There are bans, Trump abortion bans in a third of
49:14
Speaker 3: the states because of Donald Trump. It's the thing he's
49:17
Speaker 3: most proud about. And if he's elected, the Republican. will
49:20
Speaker 3: pass a abortion ban nationally in Congress and whatever he says,
49:24
Speaker 3: he's going to sign it. Obviously, IVF, contraception. They've talked
49:29
Speaker 3: about monitoring pregnant women. Trump even said, yeah, I'd probably
49:31
Speaker 3: be okay if states do that. People have to know
49:33
Speaker 3: these things. And John, you know this having worked on campaigns.
49:36
Speaker 3: The things those of us in politics are or at
49:39
Speaker 3: least those of us that follow politics see, you go
49:41
Speaker 3: talk to 12 sort of undecided voters in Western Pennsylvania. Like,
49:45
Speaker 3: I didn't know that.
49:46
Speaker 2: Yeah.
49:47
Speaker 3: No idea. Yeah. So you got to assume a lot
49:50
Speaker 3: of these voters are not paying close attention. So have
49:53
Speaker 3: a conversation with them. But yeah. And then Kamala Harris,
49:55
Speaker 3: you know, plans to cut costs, strengthen the Affordable Care Act,
50:00
Speaker 3: obviously really focus on the care economy. So important to
50:04
Speaker 3: so many people. But yeah, that's going to be important.
50:06
Speaker 3: So I think, listen, if by the beginning of October,
50:09
Speaker 3: hopefully most of the voters that will decide this election
50:12
Speaker 3: know what Project 22 is and how it will affect them.
50:15
Speaker 3: They are more concerned about what Trump would do in
50:18
Speaker 3: a return from a women's health care standpoint. And of course,
50:21
Speaker 3: we know that part of this is the way you
50:23
Speaker 3: bring the past is he's the same angry, divisive, horrible person.
50:29
Speaker 3: Two things have changed. He's eight years older. He's the
50:32
Speaker 3: oldest person ever to seek this office. And now he
50:35
Speaker 3: has a plan. And you should be very scared because
50:37
Speaker 3: that's dangerous.
50:38
Speaker 1: That's good. On that note, thank you, David Plouffe. Thanks
50:42
Speaker 1: for doing this. And also the country thanks you for
50:45
Speaker 1: helping out.
50:46
Speaker 3: We're all in this together. You know that, brother.
50:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, we sure are. We sure are. Well, I'll let
50:50
Speaker 1: you get back to work. And thanks again.
50:51
Speaker 3: All right. See you.
50:59
Speaker 1: So Plouffe brings us back to where we started. In
51:01
Speaker 1: a close race, everything matters. The candidate matters, at least
51:05
Speaker 1: I think so, or I wouldn't have spent most of
51:07
Speaker 1: July pissing off a lot of people who rightly love
51:10
Speaker 1: and admire Joe Biden. But clearly, Kamala Harris being the
51:13
Speaker 1: new Democratic nominee has already mattered. Clearly, the decisions of
51:18
Speaker 1: the Biden turned Harris campaign will matter. Any number of
51:22
Speaker 1: unforeseen events between now and November could matter. There is
51:26
Speaker 1: literally nothing that would surprise me at this point. But
51:31
Speaker 1: what we do matters too. And it potentially matters most.
51:36
Speaker 1: People make up their minds about politics because they have
51:38
Speaker 1: countless conversations with friends, family, colleagues, or perfect strangers. And
51:45
Speaker 1: unlike any of the factors I just mentioned, candidates, campaigns,
51:50
Speaker 1: the crazy shit that keeps happening, we can control whether
51:54
Speaker 1: we have those conversations and how we approach them. The
51:58
Speaker 1: vibes weren't great when we started this season. Then they
52:02
Speaker 1: got worse. Then they got much better. But the vibes
52:06
Speaker 1: don't decide the election. Voters do. When most voters and
52:10
Speaker 1: most Democrats weren't excited about Biden running, it made sense
52:13
Speaker 1: to remind each other that this election isn't about Joe
52:16
Speaker 1: Biden or Donald Trump. It's about us and our future.
52:21
Speaker 1: But the truth is, for all the excitement we feel
52:24
Speaker 1: around Kamala Harris's incredibly promising candidacy, it's still about us.
52:29
Speaker 1: The people who haven't decided yet. The people whose votes
52:33
Speaker 1: will decide the election. They want to know who sees them,
52:36
Speaker 1: who gets them, who will fight for them. They want
52:40
Speaker 1: to know who will try to make their lives a
52:41
Speaker 1: little better and keep their families safe. They want to
52:45
Speaker 1: know what kind of country they're going to live in
52:47
Speaker 1: for the next four or eight years. As we've heard
52:51
Speaker 1: from all the focus groups, some of these people can
52:54
Speaker 1: be really annoying. They can be misinformed. They can have
52:57
Speaker 1: a weird combination of political views that make no sense
53:00
Speaker 1: to you. They can hold political views that make you
53:03
Speaker 1: really mad. That's okay. Judge them if you must. But
53:08
Speaker 1: we need their votes. That's how we win. We win
53:12
Speaker 1: because we persuade people to take an action that they
53:15
Speaker 1: otherwise wouldn't have taken. Someone who was thinking about voting
53:19
Speaker 1: for Trump or voting third party or even staying home.
53:23
Speaker 1: All of those are hard conversations, just in different ways.
53:27
Speaker 1: They require us to listen, to be open, to show empathy.
53:31
Speaker 1: to presume good intentions, to give each other a little grace.
53:37
Speaker 1: Maybe this sounds soft to you, but really, it's just math.
53:41
Speaker 1: There's no easy path to 270. I'd rather be us
53:45
Speaker 1: than them, and I'd definitely rather be us now than
53:47
Speaker 1: us in July. But we're not just posting and memeing
53:50
Speaker 1: and vibing and partying our way to victory here. This
53:54
Speaker 1: is going to be work. This is going to be hard.
53:57
Speaker 1: And the stakes haven't changed. The threat of a more vengeful,
54:01
Speaker 1: more powerful Trump presidency is right there. But so is
54:06
Speaker 1: the end of the Trump era in American politics. It's
54:11
Speaker 1: right there, too. We can see the path out of
54:14
Speaker 1: the wilderness. We can see the day where we finally
54:17
Speaker 1: get to stop talking about this fucking guy and move on.
54:21
Speaker 1: We just need to convince enough people that we should.
54:25
Speaker 1: We need to have those conversations, lots of them. And
54:28
Speaker 1: even if you only persuade a few voters, you can
54:32
Speaker 1: be the one who made all the difference. Because as
54:36
Speaker 1: it always has, everything matters. Now let's go win this thing.
54:59
Speaker 1: The Wilderness is a production of Crooked Media. It's written
55:03
Speaker 1: and hosted by me, Jon Favreau. Our senior producer and
55:06
Speaker 1: editor is Andrea B. Scott. Austin Fisher is our producer.
55:10
Speaker 1: And Farrah Safari is our associate producer. Sound design by
55:13
Speaker 1: Vassilis Fotopoulos. Music by Marty Fowler. Charlotte Landis and Jordan
55:18
Speaker 1: Cantor sound engineered the show. Thanks to Katie Long, Reid Cherlin,
55:22
Speaker 1: Matt DeGrotte, and Madeline Herringer for production support. To our
55:25
Speaker 1: video team, Rachel Gajewski, Joseph Dutra, Chris Russell, Molly Lobel,
55:29
Speaker 1: and David Tolles, who filmed and edited the show. If
55:33
Speaker 1: the wilderness has inspired you to get involved, head on
55:35
Speaker 1: over to votesaveamerica.com slash 2024 to sign up and find
55:39
Speaker 1: a volunteer shift near you.