Latest / The Fourcast / Trump outflanked? How Iran is bypassing Strait of Hormuz blockade

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Trump outflanked? How Iran is bypassing Strait of Hormuz blockade · The Fourcast

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America has taken this reckless gamble and stumbled and messed
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everything up in the Gulf. The whole region is rewiring
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itself politically and economically.
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And in fact, it's working around the Strait of Hormuz, isn't it?
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Iran, which was supposed to be pummeled, decapitated,
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humiliated, facing civilizational extinction, has
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got lots of different options. So we're left with this polling
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status quo. With the price of oil at $120.00
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a barrel, this is terrible news for economies like ours.
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Hello and welcome to the forecast indicators with me,
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Matt Frey. And me, Mark Urban.
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And on forecast indicators, we look at the signals analysts
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watch out for most closely separate the wheat from the
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chaff, the signal from the noise, the telltale signs that
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suggest imminent and significant change may be coming.
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A very good reason to watch. Well, this week we're going to
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talk oil cartels, Trump truths and drones, always, Jones.
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So Mark, what is your first indicator?
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Well, look the first one and and I think this speaks to the sense
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in which nothing will ever be the same in the Gulf after this
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war. Is the United Arab Emirates
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fourth biggest oil producer etcetera, etcetera, hugely
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wealthy leaving the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
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Countries, OPEC and hinting that it may be reconsidering it's
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other memberships of multilateral organisations,
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possibly even including the Gulf Cooperation Council which is the
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defence arrangement among the Gulf states.
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Now I think this is really significant because it speaks to
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the question of tensions that have emerged between the Gulf
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states as a result of Iran malleting them with ballistic
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missiles, drones and all the rest of it.
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Tensions that we know of course were already there between the
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UAE and Saudi, but have now really intensified and possibly
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of new strategic new friendships and new arrangements.
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Now, what do I mean by that? Well, until all this happened on
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the 28th of February, the Americans were very much the
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kingpins of security in the Gulf.
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And now, you know, it's quite clear, the UAE and some of the
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others who are disappointed that the Americans got them into this
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when they said don't do it, they weren't listened to.
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And now there's every prospect that America might walk away,
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which we'll look at in a moment from this war, leaving them with
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their nightmare neighbors in Iran left as it were, trying to
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to find some kind of new security arrangements and.
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I mean, there's also a little bit of beef, isn't there?
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Well, quite a lot of beef between Saudi and UAE in Yemen
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where they're both backing rival factions in the Yemeni sort of
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ongoing burbling civil war. But what was also really
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interesting, another kind of indicator was that yesterday,
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was it yesterday, the UAE suddenly decided to demand, was
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it 3.5 billion U.S. dollars which they had loaned to
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Pakistan back immediately. Now, why would they do that to
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Pakistan? Why treat the Pakistanis like
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this? And I think a lot of it has to
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do with the fact that Pakistan's been on a bit of a journey.
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Yeah. No, no, you're absolutely right
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that that is another key, a key one that we've seen this week
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and that relates to what I just said about new arrangements or
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new alignments. So we knew that Pakistan was
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very solid with Saudi Arabia, for example, long history of
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defence engagement. And indeed they're said to have
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sent troops and fighter jets. They made a defence deal with
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them last. 2023 I think and. Last autumn, I think it was.
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And so when Iran attacks Saudi Arabia, you expect them to come
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in swinging on the side of Saudi Arabia.
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Well, not only did they not do that, but they are acting as as
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an intermediary and they're now we here allowing Iranian goods
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to come through Pakistani ports, which in some way undermines the
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idea of a blockade. Now, obviously the UAE are
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absolutely appalled by this. Hence they've asked for their
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money back, as you very rightly pointed out.
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And we see other things apparently emerging or seem to
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be emerging. So some people now talk about a
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strategic alignment between Israel, the UAE and India.
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Now obviously India and any, any group that Pakistan is in,
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they're going to want to be on the other side.
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But also the, you know, the obvious point here again, And
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it's it's worth stressing it every single time.
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What happened on the 28th of February was supposed to be over
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within days. It was supposed to decapitate a
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regime and replace it with something else, perhaps from the
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people in Iran. And instead, by kicking the
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hornet's nest, those Hornets have been flying everywhere and
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setting up new allegiances, breaking off old ones, and
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rearranging the geopolitical map of the Middle East in ways that
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we could really not have foretold.
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So Pakistan for me is fascinating.
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And I've been speaking to a couple of people about this
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country this week, and they all agree because it has this.
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It's like an octopus, you know, with tentacles just about
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everywhere. So imagine, remember Pakistan in
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2011 when Osama bin Laden was killed.
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He was found in Pakistan. It was not just a pariah state
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with a terrible human rights record.
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It also had a nuclear weapon. And it was perceived to be
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almost a failed state. So people were terrified that
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this failed state could, you know, with its news, could end
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up being a real menace. Now Pakistan, he's part of the
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Belt and Road project with China.
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It has very, it's almost a, you know, a puppet state of Beijing.
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It's got incredibly close relations with Trump's America.
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So they nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Others did, too. But, you know, they were
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important in that they were some of the first people to sign up
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to the Board of Peace. They also invested in Trump's
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crypto exchange. Asim Munir, the the defector
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military leader of Pakistan, is close to Zach Witkoff, Steve
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Witkoff's son. Steve Witkoff being the envoy
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and Zach persuaded Dad to basically take Pakistan
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seriously as an intermediary. So the Pakistan is in a very,
6:16
very strong position. This, of course, upset II is
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upset with America. Trump is upset with Delhi
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because they were buying sanctioned Russian oil when they
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shouldn't have been, which is rather ironic because those
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sanctions have been lifted anyway.
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But out of all this, Pakistan emerges, for now at least, in a
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linchpin position. The question is, and I wonder
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what you think, can they convert this into genuine currency?
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Because they need those peace talks to carry on and to bear
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fruit. And at least they got them to
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talk to each other directly for the first time at that level
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since in 47 years, Iran and America.
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But they need to bear fruit and they haven't done so far.
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And that gets us to the next problem, which is Iran, right.
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So how does how, what is Iran? What's Iran's game in this?
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Yeah, let's. Backtrack one step there to to
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the points you're quite rightly making about Pakistan and it's
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diplomatic opportunism. I mean, don't.
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You agree with me this? Clearly appalls the Emiratis,
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yeah, hence them recalling the money.
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Lo and behold, Saudi Arabia instantly stumps up and says
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don't worry, Pakistan will replace the money.
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And there you see something which I think at the at the sort
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of subtext level or, or the covert level of what's going on
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is really interesting. You know, why isn't Saudi Arabia
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angrier with Pakistan? They're facilitating Iranian
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exports and imports. They're acting as an
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intermediary when they're supposed to be on Saudi Arabia's
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side through this defence pact. And one there detects the idea
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that there's a bit of an arrangement that through the
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Pakistani mediation, the Saudis know that they can keep export
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supporting oil through their Red Sea route.
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There can be an understanding they won't attack Iran, they
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won't join, join the war against.
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And that is doubly infuriating for the Emiratis because you
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know, they're leaving. OPEC is all about in the longer
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term, then pumping more oil, selling more oil.
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It's about reducing caps, deciding yourself how much all
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you want to produce. Yeah.
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So, so there's all of that. And, and so, yes, so people talk
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about the historic grievance between the Emiratis and the
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Saudis, but but the Pakistan relationship with the US, with
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the Saudis and then with the Iranians, absolutely
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fascinating. And and yeah, I mean, look, the
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Iranians, I think quite a lot of analytical opinion now suggests
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that the blockade is causing a bit of a pinch.
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I mean, what else is there actually doing, jetting around
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the region and to Moscow? You're.
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Talking about the American blockade here.
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Yes, of course. What is the Iranian foreign
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minister doing if not trying to ease that pressure point
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somewhat? And of course, that's what
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they've said, is that first on the agenda is, is stopping the
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blockade, reopening hormones, not the nuclear issue.
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That's the Iranian line. Now you know, some of the
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analytical opinion. If you look at people who
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literally look at the satellite photos of old rusty Iranian
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tankers have noticed that some of them have been moved up to
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Hague Island to be used as floating storage pontoons
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because they are getting closer and closer to the point where
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all their storage is full. They have to stop pumping.
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So the Iranian mines, I think, are concentrated.
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The question is can they get via the Pakistani channel, lifting
9:41
of the American blockade while at the same time keeping their
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own toll booth arrangement going?
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Very unacceptable to Trump, I think.
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Indeed, but and there was sort of ironies with an irony.
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So if you look at the map, imagine the map.
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So you've got the American blockade that goes from the tip
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of Amman across the, you know, the wider opening of the Strait
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of Hormuz, you know, to where almost where Iran meets
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Pakistan, little bit further down the coast.
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And Pakistan is the port of Gwadar.
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Now apparently this port, which is a key port for Pakistan, has
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had, again, according to intelligence reports, 24/7
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activity. They're widening the port,
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they're making it bigger. Maybe they're even preparing it
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for oil exports. But this is of course, crucial
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for the Iranians. They, they ship their stuff
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across the land border to Pakistan.
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They go to the port of Gaza. From there it can sail to China
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or vice versa. Or they can just take the land
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route, which is, you know, more difficult, I suspect, because
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you have to go, you know, through the Himalayas and Tibet
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and so on. Right.
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Bit of bit of a detour. And I'm not even sure what the
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Belt and Road project has managed to create there in terms
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of Rd. links and rail links. But again, the bigger picture is
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that Iran, which was supposed to be pummeled, decapitated,
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humiliated, you know, facing civilizational extinction, he's
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got, well, first of all, hang on rather longer than everyone
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thought, has weaponized the straight very effectively, has
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got time on its side or it thinks it does and has got lots
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of different options, options with the Pakistanis, options
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with the Chinese. This is interesting.
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This is not the what the script said.
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No, absolutely. And I think if viewers or
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listeners are slightly head swimming at all the power,
11:26
political and economic combinations we're talking
11:28
about, I think one way of looking at it is the whole
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region is rewiring itself politically and economically.
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And in fact, it's working around the Strait of Hormuz, isn't it?
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Because that that Pakistani port you mentioned is a way for Iran
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to get its imports in and perhaps tankers out through
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Pakistani coastal waters. And similarly, the whole play
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now with the Emiratis implicitly is, well, we can pump oil across
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the United Arab Emirates to the port of Fujairah, which is
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outside the Gulf beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
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And when this all settles, we can increase increase production
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and increase the flow of that public.
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And that is all about rewiring. And, and some people in the Gulf
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like the Emirati saying no way are we paying to use the Strait
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of rumors. And the Iranians preparing
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themselves for the possibility that Trump does just walk away
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and they haven't got the blockade lifted.
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So they have to use a Pakistani port or some other method of
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trying to get around it. So everyone is doing different
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workarounds and trying out different options because they
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have to, right. And, you know, on the same
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level, Europeans are busy exporting, you know, more gas
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and oil from the United States, You know, in Houston, TX, their,
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their hats are getting bigger and bigger with their wallets.
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And but the Trump administration doesn't have, doesn't seem to
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have that many options. I mean, let me ask you one.
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Yeah, Let me ask you one, which is Reuters have had reporting
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this week on this possibility that Trump may just walk away,
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that they may just sort of say, well, you know, call us, call us
13:05
when you're interested. How likely do you think that is?
13:08
Well, he you. Know does Trump need the
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straight to be opened? He doesn't really.
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I mean, it's bad for the price of petrol and the price of gas
13:15
because that's set in the international market.
13:18
I don't know what options there would be for him to just say,
13:20
you know, we are not only energy self-sufficient in the US, we're
13:24
also the biggest exporter of carbon energy.
13:27
So why don't we just do our own thing here and, you know, and
13:29
cap the price or set the price artificially for our consumers
13:33
who are also voters in the midterm elections Because
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domestically this is really hurting him, right?
13:37
But strategically, he doesn't need the straight to be open
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nearly as much as the, you know, the Asians do.
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Well, actually the Europeans, because of course, the Chinese
13:45
have got their own workaround because they've got to deal with
13:47
Iran. You know, there's the potential
13:49
land route. But Chelsea, as we just
13:50
discussed, I think the Europeans are, you know, in a very
13:55
difficult place here. And of course, Trump is saying,
13:57
well, Europe, you should step up and send those boats.
14:00
But just coming back to Trump, Matt and the reporting that he's
14:05
suggesting everybody needs to prepare for an extended, How
14:10
does that play domestically in America?
14:12
Yeah, the US continuing with the blockade and the fleet and
14:16
everything being deployed there. Is that acceptable?
14:18
I think, to be honest, I think it's, I think people, the public
14:21
will get as bored as Trump has already got with this war.
14:25
And Trump, as we know, is all about the attentional economy.
14:29
He wants us to focus on the next thing.
14:31
Perhaps he'll distract everyone by finally mobilizing Marco
14:34
Rubio. Who's Marco Rubio, by the way,
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America's senior diplomat. He's gone into a witness
14:39
protection program over this whole war.
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Whether it's a smart move or not, we'll decide.
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But maybe he'll be, you know, maybe he'll be mobilized, you
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know, to give Cuba a go, whatever.
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But I think as long as Trump doesn't commit the ultimate
14:52
strategic mistake of, of sending thousands of boots into Iran,
14:58
And despite the, the fact that there's been a build up, you
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know, of military power, which we discussed a few weeks ago,
15:04
you know, all the, the, all the people we know more about this
15:07
than I do on the military side are saying to me, this is not
15:09
enough. No, no, it's not an invasion.
15:12
So I don't even think, I think even a limited thing.
15:15
Yeah. So what's the point of occupying
15:16
Hag Island? No, they haven't.
15:18
If you've, you know, if you've got a block, you know, an
15:20
American blockade in the Gulf. OK.
15:22
So I think that that military option on the ground is gone.
15:25
So you're back to the kind of permanent threat of war from the
15:29
air. We know that the Iranians are
15:31
quite good at resisting that. They can take a few more hits, a
15:34
few more bridges. And of course, the danger with
15:36
that is that you then export the war to the rest of the Gulf and
15:39
you know, the Saudis and even the Emiratis, and everyone is
15:42
begging, probably the Israelis and the Americans not to resume
15:45
that. So we're left with this
15:47
appalling status quo with the price of oil at $120.00 a
15:50
barrel. This is terrible news for
15:52
economies like ours in Britain. It's really bad news for the for
15:55
the Germans and the SE Asians, and I think Trump can withstand
15:59
that pain as long as he can somehow find a way of limiting
16:03
or mitigating the cost to the American consumer ahead of the
16:06
midterm elections. Yeah, have you heard the one
16:09
going around the dealing rooms? We thought Trump would Taco, but
16:13
in fact, it's Nacho. Not a chance.
16:16
Hormuz opens is what Nacho Heard that?
16:18
Yeah. That's very good.
16:19
That's what Nacho stands. We're gonna run out of Mexican
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dishes, aren't we? At the end of all this?
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Yeah. It will it, it could be, yeah.
16:25
No, I, I mean, it seems to me that in the Iranian calculation
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and and you know, people, yeah, I have right rightly along with
16:33
everyone else pointed out from the get go that their tolerance
16:35
of pain is higher. The the one wrinkle in that, of
16:39
course, is that the people really feeling the pain on this,
16:42
whether it's Sri Lanka, the Philippines, you know, the
16:45
countries that were so dependent on Gulf oil and not America.
16:49
There might be the issue of the gas pump price and the global
16:53
price of energy. But I think Trump has convinced
16:55
himself that that's something the US benefits from as.
16:57
Well, so if let's, I mean, you know, I remember going to Sri
17:00
Lanka if you years ago when they had terrible economic problems.
17:03
They basically ran out of dollars.
17:05
They couldn't afford to buy the oil off the tankers that were
17:09
sitting off the coast of Colombo.
17:11
And the petrol queues were unbelievable, right?
17:15
And there was popular unrest. This is Sri Lanka we're talking
17:17
about. And the president ended up
17:19
getting deposed. We now have a new government.
17:22
So this has political consequences in places like Sri
17:26
Lanka. It could have political
17:27
consequences elsewhere in Southeast Asia, you know, if the
17:31
fertilizer doesn't come the crops.
17:33
So we've discussed this before. I don't think Trump that that
17:36
enters into his imagination and I don't think he frankly cares
17:40
very much, but they will care. And that's.
17:43
So I think here we are talking at the beginning of the podcast
17:46
about all the unintended consequences and this was really
17:49
good at unintended consequences, you know, UAE opting out of
17:53
OPEC, etcetera. Those consequences will
17:57
accelerate the longer the straight stays closed in a
17:59
number of countries that we haven't even mentioned yet, the
18:03
known unknowns of this war. Yeah.
18:06
And I think that's something that could become deeply, you
18:08
know, UN destabilizing and alarming.
18:11
And let's see. And of course, an America First
18:15
America isn't too bothered by that in broad terms.
18:20
I mean, one of the areas where the conflict is still active,
18:27
and clearly the Iranians do care about it and so do the
18:30
Americans, is Lebanon, of course, with the Israeli fight
18:34
with Hezbollah. And there was a supposed renewal
18:38
of the ceasefire. But as we know, it's frayed.
18:41
The Israelis have been bombing, Hezbollah's been attacking them.
18:44
It is fraying. And that's one of the kind of
18:47
untidy elements of this. If this is left unresolved and
18:52
we get a Nacho and Trump walks away from the whole but.
18:55
I'll tell you also because I think if if Hezbollah and Israel
18:59
carry on at it, even if it's sporadic, both sides can torpedo
19:03
any deal done, if there is a deal done between the US and
19:07
Iran. So if the Israelis feel that,
19:10
you know, that Hezbollah has not been sufficiently weakened and
19:13
actually taking out Iran's proxies in the region has for
19:16
them been almost as important a goal in this war as stopping
19:21
nuclear enrichment and the missile program.
19:24
But if Hezbollah still has a pulse and they can still fire
19:27
missiles into northern Israel, and Israelis will then of course
19:30
respond, this is a hair trigger that could torpedo destroy any
19:36
deal if a deal is done between the United States and Iran.
19:40
Yes, although yeah, I mean Trump looks ready to strong arm
19:45
nursing. He's done it effectively.
19:47
If there's, how long does that work?
19:48
Viable deal. I mean the other thing and
19:50
here's another indicator for us right up and down Military 1 is
19:55
in the last several days increasing and effective use by
20:00
Hezbollah of so-called first person view drones.
20:04
Those drones piloted by someone using VR headset or a cell
20:08
phone. We've seen them, of course, very
20:10
extensively used the past couple of years on the Ukrainian
20:13
battlefield and they allow the person using it to go through
20:17
the door of a bunker or into a building.
20:20
They. Where did they get hold of this?
20:22
Who? The Hezbollah, do you know, the
20:25
technology is so easily transferable.
20:28
A lot of the parts are 3D printed.
20:30
You know it, it's an interesting question.
20:31
I mean, to have the Russians help them, have the Iranians
20:35
help them. They, they get access to
20:38
military technology from from Russia and Iran clearly.
20:42
But they've been a couple of incidents there.
20:44
There was a medevac helicopter that was hit a couple of days
20:47
ago that have really exposed the Israelis and shown how unready
20:51
they are for this. The Hezbollah have apparently
20:55
been using the fibre optic guided form of the literally a
20:59
little spool of fibre optic wire comes out the back so you can't
21:03
jam it. And there's a lot of
21:06
perturbation now, I think in the Israeli military.
21:10
But what on earth are they going to do?
21:11
Because when they launched that campaign into southern Lebanon,
21:15
they had all these ideas about a security zone.
21:18
And suddenly it looks like I think holding that security zone
21:21
could be much more expensive in terms of casualties.
21:24
So it's a, it's potentially a bit of a game changer, I think
21:27
in Lebanon and leaves Hezbollah potentially in a much stronger
21:31
position than we thought they might be.
21:34
Zooming out to the big question again, I mean, all we all wars
21:37
end when either one side is defeated or both sides are
21:40
exhausted and there's some political settlement at the end.
21:44
And I just wonder whether the complexity of what Trump's war
21:49
and Israel's war has unleashed in the region.
21:51
The the fact that so many people, including, as you
21:54
decided, Hezbollah are rather ingeniously and quickly coming
21:57
up with workarounds. You know, that allows them to
22:00
continue, whether we will at some stage reach a point of
22:04
exhaustion or stalemate where everyone just thinks, oh, my
22:07
God, this can't carry on. We've got to have a
22:09
comprehensive peace deal for the region, which involves all of
22:15
the people that we've been talking about.
22:17
Or are we dealing with such a kind of relatively low level of
22:21
conflict that it can just go on and on and on, which is a
22:25
nightmare? Not for everyone, but you know,
22:27
for the people living in northern Israel, for the people
22:30
living in southern Lebanon, you know, for the Gulf states trying
22:33
to continue their business model of being, you know, tourist
22:36
Mecca and a business Mecca in a safe neighborhood.
22:40
You know, for ordinary people living in Iran or Isfahan, I
22:43
don't know. What do you think is this?
22:44
Are we dealing with a permanent low level form of war here?
22:48
Or is it are we reaching a crescendo?
22:53
I I think potentially it is very hard to get the genie back in
22:57
the bottle. But I think one has to look at,
23:00
you know, is it in Iran's interest or, you know, indeed
23:03
Saudi Arabia's or the Emirates, whatever, for this current
23:06
situation to persist. And I, I don't think it is.
23:10
And I think that's why we see the Iranian foreign minister
23:13
flying around. Of course they want it to end.
23:15
Everyone wants it to end. It's just sort of like Iran now.
23:19
Yeah, exactly. And the debate?
23:21
With the degree of dignity left. You know, I think people in in,
23:26
in the Iranian leadership, particularly from the
23:28
Revolutionary Guard, you know, the leaders like General Vahidi,
23:31
the leader of the Revolutionary Guard, have seen the opportunity
23:35
to to take in something involving Hezbollah in Lebanon
23:39
to something involving raising money from the passage of of
23:44
ships through the Strait of Halls.
23:45
All these almost like a sort of panacea for all of Iran's
23:50
security and economic worries that all we can do all of this
23:54
if we play our cards right. And clearly they can't do all of
23:56
it. Now.
23:57
I would think it's to Iran's advantage that all of the
24:00
traffic, including the Saudi tankers and the Qatari and the
24:04
Kuwaiti ones all get moving again because then if they make
24:07
this toll booth scheme work, there's a big economic benefit.
24:11
But of course. Maybe with the Americans, as
24:13
we've discussed before. I mean, it gets back again just
24:16
briefly to Asim Munir, the defector leader of Pakistan, who
24:19
was in Tehran for two days last week.
24:22
And he actually visited Tehran. He went along.
24:25
And while he was there, he was constantly on the phone to a guy
24:29
called Donald Trump in Washington.
24:31
Now, this is fascinating. So maybe the Pakistanis are the
24:34
people, the midwives of this new order in the Middle East,
24:37
however messy it might look at the moment.
24:40
Or maybe not. But I just think the fundamental
24:43
point and you refer to it is that both Iran and the United
24:47
States and everyone else wants this thing to stop.
24:50
And if they can find the famous off ramp that that do a deal
24:55
which may not be perfect, but it's better than nothing, you
24:59
know, keeps the Iranians in place.
25:01
Israel will be unhappy about that, but they may have to live
25:04
with it because Trump, we've seen how Trump can call the
25:06
shots there. The America won't like it.
25:11
But maybe there's a shred there where he can say it's better
25:13
than Obama's deal. Because, you know, I've managed
25:16
to delay enrichment by 10 years as opposed to just five years.
25:19
Whatever, there'll be some fig leaf of a deal that people can
25:22
proffer. That's the optimistic scenario.
25:24
I think we should now move on finally to the big diplomatic
25:28
event of the week, which is, of course, the presence of our.
25:34
King, HRH. In Washington.
25:36
But I think there is a link because in all, well, in all the
25:40
permutations that we've discussed as to how you open up
25:46
the the Strait of Hormuz logjam or do people just work around
25:49
it? And what combination of those
25:51
things is going to happen? Europe and the UK do not figure,
25:55
do they? And in that sense, we're
25:58
bystanders. And even Trump seems to have
26:02
stopped insulting the Europeans and saying if you want the oil,
26:06
go and get it, that type of thing.
26:08
He doesn't seem to expect any further action.
26:11
And so now the king has been in Washington trying to mend
26:16
fences. And as as a long time denizen of
26:18
that town, Matt, do you regard this as a as a Tour de force, as
26:23
as one of the few things that is left in the British bag of
26:28
tricks? So in the case of this speech, I
26:31
thought this is the most difficult speech of his of his
26:34
reign, and it probably was in many.
26:35
I think that's. Fair and it and it's you know,
26:37
and it's going to be very tough and he's either going to you
26:40
know, you know, looked like a sycophant to Trump or he's going
26:44
to have his Love Actually moment and that'll be the end of any
26:47
kind of relationship with a special or not.
26:49
The speech he delivered in Congress before the joint houses
26:55
did several things that I thought were impossible in this
26:58
current American, you know, tribally divided nation, which
27:03
is it had both Republicans and Democrats on their feet dozen a
27:08
dozen times applauding. And crucially, even though it
27:13
was delivered by, you know, the representative of a country that
27:17
Trump has fallen out with, but also the representative of a
27:20
country that was once the colonial master.
27:23
This speech managed to make Americans feel good about
27:27
themselves like few other speeches, because it did so in
27:32
the kind of emollient nudge nudge, wink wink language of
27:36
royal diplomacy, delivered as only maybe a British Monacan to
27:42
an American audience. And I think if if we try to be
27:45
honest about the nature of our relationship, you've got all the
27:48
soft power, you have got the history.
27:50
And of course, that's what the king was speaking to this week
27:55
very successfully. And then you've got these areas,
27:59
which I guess are the sort of legacy of high Cold War
28:03
integration or cooperation, signals intelligence, the
28:06
nuclear fleet, you know, the submarine fleet and one or two
28:10
other areas like that. And, and I thought it was rather
28:13
interesting this week Ben Judah, who just stopped being a special
28:16
adviser to the government, used the phrase the specialist
28:20
relationship, which I think is quite a good summing up of where
28:24
it is in real. Terms at this point but it has a
28:27
touch of the Betty Ford clinic about you know you're trying to
28:29
get yourself off this drug that you've been high on for so many
28:32
years. I think we should retire
28:33
anything that starts with SPE forever.
28:36
Just one final thought. You know, Washington, what the
28:40
King did was highly entertaining and and I loved it and.
28:44
And finding the bell from the submarine.
28:47
Who would have thought? OK, that's all great.
28:49
But in the bigger picture, you've got America with this
28:53
entertaining little sideshow. You know, they they Burrow
28:56
themselves into a hole over the wall that they started.
28:59
Meanwhile, China, and remember that in the middle of May, Trump
29:03
will go to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping.
29:05
And that summit was one of the absolute, you know, that was
29:08
going to be one of the pillars of his second administration
29:12
after the trade war that he started and lost.
29:14
Meanwhile, the Chinese are rearranging the global furniture
29:18
in a far more complicated and I mean, complex way to their
29:21
advantage. Whether it's exploiting what's
29:24
going on in, you know, in Iran, which should really have harmed
29:27
them much more than it did, whether it's using Pakistan,
29:31
whether it's the fact that, you know, on the the trade war with
29:35
with America is something that they've done rather well on.
29:38
I mean, they have massive internal issues and a lot of
29:40
this is driven by the fact that there's high youth unemployment
29:43
in China, there's a property bubble, all that stuff.
29:45
But in terms of strategic thinking, they are mild.
29:50
I'm. Going to, I'm going to put in a
29:52
final dissenting note here, which is.
29:54
So we were getting on. Certainly last week, last week,
29:58
absolutely we we said strategic foresight, you know, whether
30:01
it's the petrol stockpile, whether it's the slow building
30:04
of relationships. But a couple of discordant
30:06
points that I've seen come up this week.
30:08
I mean, firstly, a prominent Morati pointing out that all the
30:12
drones that have been hitting them have Chinese components.
30:15
A lot of people in the Gulf won't forget that.
30:17
Secondly, the situation. They won't forget that America
30:20
basically didn't consult them. No, absolutely.
30:22
No, no they won't, absolutely. Hence they're looking to these
30:25
new relationships we've been talking about.
30:28
But but I mean, also it can't be in the Chinese interest that
30:32
their energy costs that much more, you know, either the toll
30:35
booth system or a continued blockade of some kind.
30:38
That can't be in their long term interest either.
30:40
So but I think in some respects there's bad news for them too.
30:44
But overall, you're right. I mean, in terms of showing up
30:49
that America has taken this reckless gamble and stumbled and
30:53
messed everything up in the Gulf.
30:55
Of course China profits, but of. Course, as as Trump told us, the
30:58
King agreed with him wholeheartedly behind closed
31:01
doors in the golden cage of the Oval Office about the the
31:05
righteous nature of this war. No, that that Iran shouldn't get
31:09
even Putin agrees with. That indeed.
31:11
Goodbye from both of us. See you next time.