Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 137 - 10/9/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 137 - 10/9/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 137 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Wednesday. Our work week rolls on and we
0:39
got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
0:41
I have a three pack of sweats for you guys, including a play
0:44
on a college football game tonight.
0:46
That's right, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State.
0:49
It's a big number, but I have an angle on this one in terms of a
0:52
system match as well as a great rhythm edge.
0:55
So stay tuned for that. And then we're going to get
0:57
right back to Major League Baseball playoffs, which have
0:59
been absolutely riveting. And I got 2 bets for you today,
1:02
guys. A couple of games here with some
1:05
good sharp line moves, good system matches and a couple of
1:07
interesting edges that hopefully we'll be able to take advantage
1:10
of. So as always, 3 pack.
1:12
Let's try to go 2 and one eke out a winning day.
1:15
Now before we dive into our sweats, let's bust out the
1:17
brooms baby. Great night last night.
1:20
Three and oh, plus 2.5 units that made our fourth straight
1:24
winning day. You love to see it.
1:26
Don't let the boys get hot, that's all I'm saying.
1:28
But a couple of great hits, including FIU.
1:31
That one was unbelievable because that was a big number
1:34
and we ended up taking the points getting plus 16 1/2 and
1:38
at the time it was like OK, open 20 down to 16 1/2.
1:41
We're getting the worst of the number, but we actually didn't
1:44
get the worst of the number. It end up closing at some shops
1:47
at 16 or even 15 1/2. I even saw a couple books even
1:51
close at 15. So that was one of those
1:53
teachable moments where even though you may not get the best
1:55
of the number, we are still super contrarian.
1:57
Only around 30% of bets run FIU, but they had the low bets,
2:01
higher dollars bet split. And that's one of those angles.
2:04
You know, I have a lot of catch phrases, you know, fade the
2:06
trendy dog, dog to fave line move, steam RLM 5050 line move.
2:11
You know, again, I have all these different kind of
2:13
different slogans that I've come up with overtime, but we got to
2:16
come up with some kind of slogan where there's just massive steam
2:19
and no buyback whatsoever. So maybe I'll throw it out to
2:22
you guys. I'll put out the bat signal.
2:23
We got to come up with a cool name for a spot like FIU last
2:26
night where it was just constant, constant RLM with no
2:30
buyback whatsoever. So FIU ended up losing in
2:33
overtime by 7. Why was that important?
2:36
Because they battled, there was a huge play at the goal line
2:38
where the guy for Liberty fumble, which would have put him
2:41
up 14 and said it was at 7:00 and then FIU came back and tied
2:45
it. So lost by 7.
2:47
But fine with us. We covered with the 16 1/2 and
2:49
beat the closing line. Then we had a nice winner with
2:51
the Sun in the links over in the WNBA over 151 1/2.
2:56
Remember that wasn't as much a data-driven play, but it was a
3:00
rhythm edge. Rhythm predicted a final total
3:02
closer to 157 and that thing flew over which was great to
3:06
see. WNBA Finals now start I believe
3:08
tomorrow, which I may have a play for.
3:10
Stay tuned on tomorrow's pod. And then to finish up the the
3:14
sweep and busting out the brooms.
3:16
The San Diego father's baby dad treated us well last night.
3:20
Father's got a big, gave up a Grand Slam and it got dicey.
3:24
But then it was there's no scoring the rest of the way.
3:26
San Diego bullpen shut the door on the Dodgers and that place, I
3:30
got to say guys, is buzzing. Now.
3:31
If you don't know, my wife is from San Diego and over the
3:35
summer we visited San Diego. We usually go once a year,
3:38
either in the summer or for the holidays.
3:39
And we went to a game at Petco Park and I just thought it was
3:42
the coolest atmosphere. And they got something going
3:45
this like reminds me of kind of Red Sox Yankees when my Red Sox
3:48
were legit. Obviously they're not anymore
3:51
because they won't spend any money.
3:52
But there's something going on with the Padres right now.
3:55
And they got a big win for us last night.
3:56
And I may have a bet one of the games tonight might be on that
3:59
Padres Dodgers game. So stay tuned.
4:01
But either way, guys, fourth straight winning day.
4:03
Let the good times roll. We're going to continue to
4:05
grind. And when you go 3 and O + 2.5
4:08
units or go O and 3 -, 3 units. As always, I always like to
4:11
mention this. Good bad day treading water
4:14
somewhere in the middle. The process the model never
4:17
changes. We're looking for system matches
4:19
bypass the games that have red flags or don't check off all the
4:22
boxes. Get down on the games that do so
4:25
without further ado, let's see if we can keep our winning
4:27
streak going. Let's try to make it a fifth
4:29
straight winning day. I want to start off with some
4:32
college football. By the way, I do have some NFL
4:35
early look headlines here in early numbers for week 6.
4:38
I wanted to mention that I am going to finish up the pod today
4:41
with some NFL early bets to place right now.
4:44
So back to college football. We are now in the routine of
4:47
having a game every single night, which is fantastic.
4:50
And hopefully we can not have another big dog to cover a
4:53
little little hint hint for you, Let's go to New Mexico State and
4:57
Jacksonville State. Maybe not the sexiest game
5:00
you've ever thought of, but this is a 7:30 PM.
5:02
Eastern Time kickoff on ESPN 2 and this is kind of a tale of
5:06
two teams. You look at the New Mexico State
5:08
Aggies, they come in one and four, they've lost four
5:11
straight. Jacksonville State 2:00 and
5:13
3:00, but they started O and three and they've won two
5:16
straight. Last two wins were blowout wins.
5:18
So the first thing you notice about this game is a huge
5:21
spread, 21 1/2 big, big point points here.
5:25
So the question is, is Jacksonville State going to roll
5:27
and blow them out by 22 or more or can New Mexico State lose by
5:32
21 or less? So I'm going to go with the
5:35
points with New Mexico State here.
5:37
Guys, couple things jumped out to me. 1st is kind of a line
5:40
movement. Now we open this game New Mexico
5:42
State as or let me flip it. We open this game Jacksonville
5:46
State at home around a 21 point favorite and early in the week
5:50
we got down to -20 and one shop even got down to -19 1/2.
5:56
So early on the move was toward New Mexico.
5:58
Now over the last 2448 hours, we have seen this line tick back up
6:02
to now Jacksonville state -21 1/2.
6:05
Why is that half, you know, point important?
6:08
Why is that hook important? Because key numbers 371421
6:13
hopefully the the hook may not, it may may matter, it may not,
6:17
but it is an important number here because if you lose by 21,
6:20
we want to cover with the hook on the 21 1/2.
6:22
So we're basically out of line freeze open around 2121 1/2 now
6:26
at this point. But if you look at the moves in
6:28
between, the fact that we got as low as 19 tells me that there
6:32
has been some money here leaning toward New Mexico State.
6:35
You know, we're not seeing Jacksonville State opening -21
6:38
and now they're up to -23 -, 24. It's kind of stayed where it's
6:42
at. And that's notable because
6:45
Jacksonville State is the popular bet tonight.
6:46
Now, it's not as lopsided as last night's game with Liberty
6:50
getting, you know, 70% of bets right now.
6:53
You're getting Jacksonville State at 56% of spread bets.
6:56
So it still is a public side, popular side.
6:59
So with New Mexico State, we are one contrarian only getting 44%
7:03
of bets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN.
7:06
Two number two, kind of a line freeze public.
7:10
Jacksonville state of the line really hasn't budged too much
7:12
off the opener. Some shops, some shops by the
7:14
way are at 21. So I would love to get the hook
7:17
21 1/2. That's what I got and see this
7:19
thing close at 20. Kind of like we saw that late
7:21
movement continue to go toward FIU last night.
7:25
But if you add in a couple more factors and I'm going to give
7:27
you the cherry on top of the end, but a lot of system matches
7:30
on New Mexico State that were lighting up on FIU yesterday. 1
7:34
is a conference dog. This is a Conference USA
7:37
matchup. So both teams same conference
7:39
built in familiarity rivalry aspect, levels of the playing
7:42
field benefits the team getting points, correlative betting big,
7:46
big dog, you know, 3 touchdown dog.
7:49
Any relatively low total game total.
7:50
This one is around 58 and a half, 59.
7:53
Obviously that's an incredibly high NFL total, but for college,
7:56
that isn't that high. You routinely see totals in the
7:59
60s or more than. If you look at the defenses here
8:03
like Jacksonville State, no question about it, they have the
8:05
far better offense. But both teams are allowing
8:09
almost the exact amount of points on defense.
8:12
Through five games, they're both allowing round 35 points a game.
8:15
New Mexico State is giving up 175 points.
8:18
Jacksonville State's giving up 172 points, so basically the
8:21
defenses are basically equal. So hopefully that is benefits in
8:25
Mexico State maybe looking a little bit better offensively
8:28
and keeping this number within 3 touchdowns.
8:31
Another angle here, rest first, tired.
8:33
New Mexico State has a big rest advantage tonight.
8:36
They last played on September 28th.
8:39
Jacksonville State last played on October 4th.
8:41
So New Mexico State is coming off a by rested ready to go.
8:45
And Jacksonville State is on a very short week.
8:47
They played on Friday. Now they got to come back and
8:50
play on a Wednesday. So kind of a really, you know,
8:52
big advantage here. I would say, you know, resting,
8:55
rehabbing injuries. But really hopefully the
8:56
coaching staff of New Mexico use this extra time, you know, to
9:00
devise a game plan specifically to hopefully.
9:02
I mean, they're going to they're going to try to win the game.
9:04
We're just trying to cover. But that is a big rest.
9:06
First tired. And then the cherry on top the
9:10
the angle here that sent me over the edge with New Mexico State
9:14
Rhythm, our friends at Rhythm who do a great job of setting
9:18
these AI back models and predictions for both game bets
9:21
and player props. I have two Rhythm system matches
9:24
here and they're both on New Mexico State.
9:26
I have one model that says New Mexico State should be plus 17.5
9:31
and I have another model where New Mexico State should be plus
9:33
19.4. So even if you go with the
9:36
higher one, the 19.4, if you're getting 21 1/2 and rhythm is
9:40
predicting closer to a 17/18/19 point game, boom, that's value
9:44
here to go with New Mexico State.
9:46
So this one might be tough to swallow.
9:49
It's a big number, but let's just hope NM state loses by 21
9:53
or less. Make sure you get the hook.
9:55
It's pretty widely available, but I am seeing some shops maybe
9:58
inch down toward 21. So make sure you line shop, make
10:02
sure you have multiple outs. Get that hook.
10:04
I am on New Mexico State plus 21 1/2.
10:08
Make sure you get the 21 1/2. Now over to some Major League
10:12
Baseball because we got 4 pack here of MLB games.
10:15
I believe this is the last day of the year where you're going
10:17
to have more than two games in a day.
10:19
So enjoy it if you're a baseball fan.
10:21
But two games caught my eye. Let's start off with
10:23
Philadelphia and New York. Big match up here in the NLDS,
10:28
Two rivals, bitter rivals here. The Mets had a big win last
10:31
time. I'm actually kicking myself for
10:32
not playing the Mets because they kind of had a decent,
10:36
decent line move in their favor. But if you look at tonight's
10:40
matchup, after the Mets won seven to two, Mets are now up
10:42
two to one in the series. Remember, these are five game
10:45
series. So if the Mets win tonight, it's
10:47
over. If they lose, you go Game 5 and
10:50
you go back to Philly. And if you're a Mets fan or Mets
10:52
backer, you don't want that. You want to close it off, close
10:55
it out here tonight. So 5:08 PM Eastern Time.
10:58
This one's on FS1 and the pitching matchup.
11:01
We have Ranger Suarez going for the fills.
11:04
He had a good regular season, 12 and eight, 3.46 ERA.
11:08
He'll be opposed by Jose Quintana, who in the regular
11:10
season went 10 and 10 with a 3.75 ERA.
11:13
More on these pictures in a second.
11:14
Cuz I think there's a big advantage for Cantana over
11:17
Suarez. What are we seeing across the
11:19
market? Well, we're seeing some line
11:21
movement toward the Mets. This game opened at basically a
11:25
favorite for the Phillies. You know, Phillies open at some
11:28
shops -110 -, 115. I saw an opener of close to
11:32
Phillies -120 guys, we have a dog to fave line move.
11:36
It's now flipped toward the Mets.
11:38
The Mets are now up to -115 -, 120.
11:41
So right off the bat, I noticed this big move toward New York.
11:44
I'm going Mets, by the way, guys, Mets at -115 but dog to
11:48
fave line move opening around plus 100 even money, even like a
11:52
plus one O 5 at some shops now -115 -. 120 dog to fave line
11:57
move open as a dog flip to a favorite really good bet split
12:00
as well. The Mets are only getting 56% of
12:03
bets, but 64% of dollars. So again, 56% that's technically
12:08
public. You know, anything 51 percent or
12:10
more, the majority is technically public by the
12:12
definition, but 56% bets. That isn't very lopsided.
12:16
You shouldn't flip dog to fave a huge move like that off of 56%.
12:21
So it tells me we have a quasi 5050 line move with a good low
12:25
bets, higher dollars, 64% of money.
12:28
And then also if you look at the starting pitchers.
12:30
This is important to me because Ranger Suarez is making his
12:32
first start this postseason. And if you go back to the month
12:36
of September when he made 5 starts, he had an ERA of six
12:40
point O 4. So this is a guy make it.
12:42
Yes, he yes, he is rested, but he's making his first postseason
12:46
start. He pitched poorly in September.
12:48
Flip it the other way, Jose Quintana is making his second
12:51
postseason start and he's so far O&O 0.00 ERA.
12:55
If you remember, he pitched against Milwaukee in the wild
12:59
card round and he went six innings, no runs, four hits,
13:03
five case. It was a four, two win.
13:04
So he pitched very, very well and that kind of lined up with
13:07
what he did in September. In September, Quintana made four
13:10
starts, had an ERA of 0.72. So on the one hand, Suarez, his
13:15
first start and he was bad in September, Cantana second start,
13:20
he was great in his first one and he was great in September.
13:22
So to me, the advantage here is Cantana.
13:24
Maybe that's why we're seeing this move toward the Mets and
13:26
Cantana. But also if you look at this
13:29
postseason, it's a relatively small sample size, but how do
13:33
both these teams hit against lefties?
13:35
The New York Mets are hitting 400 against left-handed pitchers
13:39
this year or this postseason. The Phillies are hitting $1.25
13:43
against left-handed pitchers. So this is a big advantage with
13:46
two lefties on the bump toward the Mets, who again are red hot
13:50
against southpaw's Mets have struggled.
13:52
You also have just classic correlative favorite low total
13:55
total. This one is 7 1/2.
13:57
So if your amount of expected run scored, more likely to come
13:59
from quote UN quote, the better team or the team was expected to
14:02
win that day. And then also a little bit of
14:04
home Rd. Philly.
14:06
They're 41 and 40 on the road. You know, slightly above 500.
14:09
Mets were 46 and 35 at home. So Philly not great on the road,
14:14
Mets great at home and the Mets got some good good vibes going
14:18
right now. I'm not betting the Mets because
14:20
of the vibes. I'm betting the Mets because
14:22
their dog to fave line move, a good bet split and hopefully an
14:25
advantage there on the bump with Quintana.
14:27
So shop around guys. I got the Mets at -115 again,
14:31
some books are as high as -120, but let's hope the Mets close it
14:34
out tonight in the Big Apple. Keep on cruising Dodgers,
14:39
Padres. I alluded to this game a little
14:41
bit here, but this is a big matchup game.
14:45
What are we at Game 4? San Diego's up two to one.
14:49
Remember the Dodgers won the first one, San Diego's won the
14:51
last two and the Dodgers, their season can end today and I'm
14:55
hoping that it does. This is a close out spot for San
14:58
Diego and I'm going Padres guys. I'll give you a couple reasons
15:01
like the Padres tonight, 1 is the pitching matchup.
15:06
Now we're actually let me start with the line move.
15:09
This game opened actually basically how to pick them.
15:12
When this line first opened after last night's game ended, a
15:16
lot of openers were -110 both sides.
15:19
And the first thing I noticed as I was celebrating San Diego
15:23
winning it last night, even though it got dicey, was that an
15:25
open -110 both sides, basically a pick em all movement has come
15:30
in on San Diego. San Diego is now up to -130 -,
15:34
135 some books even closer to -140 So it's always important to
15:38
me. We've talked about this after a
15:39
long season of MLB betting that when it opens at a pick, where's
15:44
the line go this open at a pick all movement towards San Diego
15:48
similar to the Mets good bet split for San Diego only 58% of
15:52
bets but 64% of dollars so relative, you know, 5050 line
15:57
move with a low bets higher dollars bet split.
16:00
And then here's where I think it's important and the
16:02
advantages for San Diego. The pitching match up here is
16:05
very interesting because the Dodgers are kind of undecided.
16:09
They don't know who they're going to throw.
16:10
Today you heard Dave Roberts say it's probably going to be a
16:13
bullpen day. That means you're going to get
16:15
an opener out of the pen. It's just going to be, you know,
16:17
a bunch of guys out of the pen throwing one inning or two
16:20
innings. On the flip side, San Diego's
16:24
going with Dylan Cease. Now.
16:25
Dylan Cease was not good in his first post season start against
16:29
the Dodgers. He lost Game 1.
16:30
He gave up five runs and 3.1 innings pitched.
16:33
But he had a good regular season, 1411, three .47 ERA in
16:38
September, he was good, 2.97 ERA and five starts.
16:42
And even though he got lit up in game one, I'm thinking, was it
16:45
nerves? He, you know, pitched obviously
16:47
for the White Sox where you don't make the playoffs very
16:49
often. Was that just a bad spot on the
16:52
road where, you know, he just didn't pitch well?
16:54
Maybe the nerves were too much. Maybe he was unprepared.
16:57
Who knows? I'm thinking, though, regression
16:59
to the mean, regression to the positive here.
17:02
So I'm banking on Cease, who was a traditional starter and had a
17:06
good year against the Dodgers, who are just going to throw a
17:08
bunch of bullpen arms. So to me, I'd rather go with the
17:11
guy who you know at times has been a Cy Young candidate over a
17:15
bunch of scrubs coming out of the pen.
17:17
Now, aside from the line move in the pitching matchup, couple
17:20
other things to like about San Diego.
17:23
There's been 16 games played regular season to postseason,
17:26
Padres and Dodgers, and the Padres are 10 and six against
17:30
the Dodgers. This would also be a favorite
17:32
low total total. This one is around 8 juiced
17:35
under a little bit. So Fearmont expected run score
17:37
more likely to come from again, quote UN quote the better team
17:41
offensively this postseason. The Dodgers are only hitting
17:44
216. You look at the Padres, they're
17:47
hitting 255. The Padres OPS is 815.
17:51
Dodgers are hitting OPS 620. Dodgers also have a couple
17:55
injuries. Miguel Rojas got hurt last
17:57
night. Freddie Freeman's got a bum
17:59
ankle. And you put it to the the San
18:01
Diego Padres, they're buzzing, man.
18:04
That stadium is just rocking. There's bad blood.
18:08
I think they want to close this thing out tonight.
18:10
Again, these are supplementary factors where again, the reason
18:13
why you're going San Diego, if you are, is the line move.
18:17
Not because, you know, they look like a team of destiny.
18:20
But I will say on the postseason show on Fox last night, it was
18:25
David Ortiz, Derek Jeter and a rod and a rod.
18:29
Even though, again, say what you will about a Rod, as a Sox fan,
18:32
I hated a Rod. But he made a good point where
18:35
the Dodgers for so long have been the Big Brother that beats
18:37
up on the little brother of San Diego.
18:39
And it feels like the little brother grew up and is ready to
18:42
beat up on the Big Brother. Kind of a passing of the torch,
18:45
if you will. So I'm going to back the Padres
18:48
again and open that to pick them.
18:49
All movements been towards San Diego.
18:51
I'm going to stay up late and hope that San Diego closes this
18:54
one out. I am on the Padres at -130
18:58
again, some shops as high as -135 so Mets, Padres and New
19:03
Mexico State plus 21 1/2. Can we get 2 out of three?
19:06
That is the goal now to finish up the pod.
19:09
I want to hit on a little bit of NFL for this weekend.
19:13
I think if you're betting NFL, of course, you know, you kind of
19:16
get into a routine of, you know, looking at games as soon as they
19:20
open, how they move, monitoring games throughout the week,
19:23
figuring out early, OK, where where's the smart money going?
19:27
Do I play it now because I'm getting a good number?
19:29
Do I wait? This is of course, if you want
19:31
to be a good NFL better. You can't wake up on a Sunday
19:34
morning and place all your bets after being blind to what's been
19:38
going on throughout the week. So I always enjoy when it comes
19:41
to, you know, Tuesday's we talked about college football
19:45
line moves coming up to target. You know, yesterday we talked
19:48
about a bunch of opportunities. Now let's look at the NFL.
19:52
So first bet that I made officially Chicago Bears.
19:57
You might have heard me talk about this one, but the Bears
19:59
opened around a pick em -1 or plus one on the on the road in
20:04
London. That's important here.
20:05
I'll tell you why in a second. But now the Bears are up to -2
20:08
some shops are even -2 1/2. Bears are getting 73% of bets,
20:12
83% of dollars. They have a much better defense,
20:16
only giving up seventeen points a game versus nearly 29 for the
20:20
Jaguars. But the big reason why I'm money
20:23
lining Chicago, I got a -, 130. Same situation there with the
20:26
Vikings over The Jets. International series favorites.
20:30
Say it with me. International series favorites.
20:33
It's a mouthful, but this is something I've been playing for
20:35
quite a while at this point. When you look at games outside
20:38
of the US, favorites are 35 and 10.
20:41
Straight up 77%. Someone hope that street
20:44
continues with the line move. I'm on Chicago money line at
20:48
-130 next game, Arizona and Green Bay.
20:53
Arizona comes in two and three. Just beat the 49ers. 2423
20:58
winning outright as a 7 1/2 point Rd. dog.
21:00
Packers, by the way, three and two held off the Rams. 2419
21:04
covered as a three-point Rd. favorite.
21:06
This one's interesting because it opened Green Bay -5 1/2 at
21:09
home and the public split down the middle.
21:12
They don't know what to do. And again, we always talk 5050.
21:15
Theoretically, a line shouldn't move at all, yet the line is
21:18
going toward Arizona. A lot of these five and a halfs
21:21
are now down to 5. So it tells me wise guys grabbed
21:23
Arizona with the hook Again, 5 1/2 is not a dead number like it
21:28
used to be. It's important 2722 game, you
21:31
know, 25202419 again, the hooks. Hook is important there, but you
21:36
also have a lot of system matches on Arizona Rd.
21:41
Dogs are 56% against the spread this year.
21:44
Dogs getting five points or more 19 and six ATS. 76% are big dog
21:49
system match Kyler Murray, two and one ATS is a dog this year,
21:53
27 and 15 ATS, 64% in his career.
21:57
Cards are a dog who can score system match so put up enough
22:00
points to keep pace. They're averaging 24 points a
22:03
game. That's 12th in the NFL.
22:05
Here's the thing, go though, a lot of books are at Arizona +5.
22:09
But if you have FanDuel, FanDuel right now is offering Arizona
22:13
plus 5 1/2. They're the only book I saw
22:15
across the market that is giving the hook.
22:17
So I jumped on the hook here. If you have a FanDuel account,
22:20
I'm in Massachusetts, legal state.
22:22
Of course I jumped on Arizona with the hook. 5 1/2 at -115
22:27
Another reason to shop around and have multiple outs, but I
22:30
took Arizona plus 5 1/2. Indianapolis Colts.
22:34
Tennessee Titans. This one is interesting because
22:38
the public is all over the Colts.
22:39
Colts two and three. Lost to the Jaguars 3734 last
22:43
week, but did cover the 3 1/2 Titans.
22:45
Meanwhile, one and three just got their first one.
22:48
Remember they crushed the Dolphins 31 to 12 winning
22:50
outright. Don't remind me because I was on
22:52
Dolphins in that game. The one out right as a 2 1/2
22:54
point dog. Now what are we seen across the
22:56
market? Will the Colts open this game as
23:00
around a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite?
23:02
And the public is saying Colts are the lesser of two evils.
23:06
Right now you're getting 73% of spread bets on the Colts.
23:10
But the lines not going to the Colts, it's going to Tennessee
23:13
-1 1/2 Indy it's down to -1 some shops even down to a pick.
23:18
So I'm thinking if you wait any longer, who knows this might hop
23:22
the fence and go to Tennessee -1.
23:25
Now what I like about Tennessee is they're super contrarian,
23:27
only getting 24% of spread bets. Their divisional dog 54% ATS
23:32
since 2020. They're also a conference dog
23:34
getting 4 or less 56% ATS since 2018.
23:38
But here's what what else I like about Tennessee.
23:41
They are a huge rest first tired advantage play.
23:43
The Titans are off a by Indy had to play on Sunday.
23:46
So you have one team rested off a buy and remember they won a
23:49
game prior to that. Big advantage there.
23:52
Rehab, injuries, rest up game plan.
23:55
So you have a rested team off a buy Tennessee versus A-Team who
23:58
is not rested in Indian Indianapolis.
24:02
Also it's a buy. Low sell high bad ATS team.
24:05
Titans one and three ATS versus sell high good ATS team.
24:09
Tennessee Colts are four and one ATS.
24:11
So people have big reason why probably the public is on the
24:13
Colts is that they don't like Tennessee.
24:15
They don't believe in Tennessee, but also Colts have covered a
24:18
lot for them. Tennessee has not.
24:20
So that kind of factors in. So I'm going Indianapolis or
24:25
sorry, I'm going Tennessee here now.
24:28
I just mentioned FanDuel had the hook on Arizona plus 5 1/2 guys.
24:32
FanDuel is giving the Tennessee Titans plus 1 1/2 right now.
24:37
They're the only book right now at one and a half. 1 1/2 at -115
24:40
So I jumped on the hook. Give me Tennessee rested
24:43
contrarian RLMI am on Tennessee plus 1 1/2 If you got if you got
24:47
the hook access to it. I'm playing it plus 1 1/2 -. 115
24:51
Let's go Titans keep on cruising since he and the Giants.
24:55
This one is interesting because it is just a blueprint play for
24:58
me to hold my nose and go hazmat Giants here this game.
25:03
Bengals come in one and four. They had a tough loss to the
25:05
Ravens. 4138 didn't cover the 2 1/2.
25:09
Giants are two and three had a huge win over the Seahawks.
25:11
They won 2920 outright as a 7 point Rd. dog.
25:14
Now what have we seen across the market here?
25:17
Well, since he and by the way, this is your Sunday Night
25:18
Football game most heavily back game of the week since he opened
25:22
as as high as a 5 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
25:24
Immediately the five and a half's got down to four and a
25:26
half. The four and a half's got down
25:28
to 3 1/2. Now all these three and a halfs
25:30
are juiced up like they're going to three.
25:32
So all movement has been toward the G men.
25:34
And why is that important? Because the G men are super
25:37
contrarian. 76% of bets are on Cincy.
25:41
So since he opened -5 1/2, they're getting three out of
25:43
four bets. Why is this line falling away
25:45
from them? Shouldn't it be up to -6 six and
25:48
a half? No, What's going the other way
25:50
toward the G men? So G men would be a prime time
25:52
dog, super contrarian. It's your top bet against the
25:55
public play. They're only getting 24% of
25:57
spread bets. Prime time dogs 56% ATS since
26:02
2020. Brian Dayball is 21 and 11 ATS.
26:05
66% as a dog. As head coach of the G Men,
26:09
Daniel Jones. Make fun of him if you want.
26:12
He's 29 and 22 ATS as a dog 57% And the Giants have a bit much
26:17
better offense. Hopefully this is what keeps it
26:18
close. The Giants are only giving up
26:21
20.8 points per game. That's 11th best in football.
26:25
The Bengals are giving up 29 points per game.
26:28
That's 31st, so a primetime matchup.
26:30
Everyone's playing since he lines fall into the G men guys.
26:33
I got G men. I already put it in plus 3 1/2
26:36
at -115 at FanDuel because I want to get that hook.
26:40
It looks like the three and halfs might be getting down to
26:42
three, lose by three. We need to cover that one.
26:45
So I have in pocket Giants plus 3 1/2.
26:48
I'll just mention one more. Washington, Baltimore.
26:52
This scares me a little bit because Washington is a little
26:56
bit public. I think they're getting around
26:57
64% of bets, but they open +7 at Baltimore.
27:02
Some shops are down to 6 1/2. And the rhythm model for this
27:06
game is I have two models. One says, believe it or not,
27:10
Washington should be favored by one point and the other model is
27:14
there plus 4.6. So even if you take the 4.6,
27:17
rhythm is telling me the value here is to take Washington.
27:19
This kind of reminds me a little bit of Arizona last week against
27:21
San Fran. And then little cherry on top,
27:24
Big Dog 6 1/2 or more, 13 and two against the spread this
27:28
year. So Washington, I don't like that
27:30
they're kind of the obvious play.
27:31
You know, they've been great, take the big points, but they
27:34
got a good rhythm edge and they have a good system match.
27:37
I didn't play the six and half yet because it's -110 both sides
27:41
I want to see, does it creep down to six or does it rise back
27:44
up to seven? I'm going to hold out for a 7,
27:46
but I'm leaning pretty hard on Washington as a big dog system
27:49
match and a rhythm system match. So Chicago money line, Arizona
27:54
plus 5 1/2, Tennessee plus 1 1/2, Giants plus 3 1/2.
27:58
Those are all in pocket bets that I've made and I'm holding
28:01
out and monitoring the commanders.
28:04
So that about does it for episode 137 of the All Systems
28:08
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
28:10
This is the part of the pod where you wrap things up and I
28:13
start by asking a favor of you. Can you guys make my day?
28:15
Can you do me a solid? Could you please spend 2 seconds
28:20
and give this podcast a five star review?
28:22
Go to the the button there on Spotify or iTunes where it says
28:25
rate and review. Boom, click five stars.
28:27
It would mean a lot to me. If you enjoy the pod, you want
28:30
to let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in
28:32
hosting this free pod every weekday, Monday to Friday.
28:36
Boom, give it five stars would help us to continue to grow,
28:39
rise up the charts and gain some more some more listens as we
28:43
always want to continue to grow and help regular betters become
28:47
sharper, data-driven betters. If there's an option to follow,
28:50
click that that we'll get alerted as soon as it drops each
28:52
day. And if you want to recommend it
28:54
to a friend, that would be fantastic as well.
28:56
But please, a five star review would go a long way.
28:59
Secondly, if you enjoy this pod and maybe you're intrigued by
29:03
the data-driven approach, not betting based on what your head
29:06
or your heart tells you or sorry, not betting based on what
29:09
your heart tells you, but based on betting based on what your
29:13
your head is telling you. And by your head I mean the
29:15
data, not betting what I think, want or hope will happen, but
29:19
what the market is telling me where the smart money is going
29:22
against the public with the sharps.
29:24
If this style of betting appeals to you and you want to learn
29:26
more about data-driven betting, go buy my book.
29:29
Believe it or not, I'm an author.
29:31
I wrote a book. Just go to Amazon.com and type
29:34
in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
29:36
Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
29:38
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
29:40
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
29:42
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
29:45
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
29:48
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
29:50
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
29:52
So pick one up when I see at the sports book, bring my book.
29:55
Bring the Everything Guide to the to the book.
29:58
I'll sign it for you. I'll buy you a beer or a ginger
30:00
ale next. Have you taken advantage of
30:04
Juice Reel or Rhythm? My two favorite sports betting
30:07
apps on the market because they help me win.
30:09
They're going to help you win. So with Rhythm, of course, they
30:13
are great for their AI backed models and predictions for game
30:15
bets and player props helped us cash that WNBA over last night.
30:20
Rhythm again or sorry Juice Reel is giving you a different kind
30:25
of a different, different indicators or different.
30:28
It's not quite like Rhythm, but I think it's it's it's really
30:31
awesome because it allows you to tell the best bet picks that are
30:35
AI backed models and predictions, but then also other
30:39
angles here where you can shop around and easily can give you
30:42
the best number by telling you all the current prices at all
30:45
the different books. Arbitrage opportunities,
30:47
guaranteed profits if you follow the risk ratios, the sharp Bush
30:51
opportunities where you can kind of have a confirmation of, hey,
30:54
am I with the, the good betters in the app or the bad betters in
30:57
the app. And then also those actual
31:00
dollar breakdowns, bets and dollars from people have synced
31:03
up their sports books to juice reel.
31:05
It's all included when you when you download juice reel.
31:08
So download Juice reel, download rhythm, but make sure you do it
31:11
in this particular way. Go to the bio descriptions for
31:14
each podcast and there'll be some custom links right in
31:17
there. So click those custom links.
31:19
That's very important so that they know that I referred you.
31:22
But for example, today's will say something like an episode
31:25
137. Josh dishes out a three pack of
31:28
Wednesday sweats across MLB, postseason and college football.
31:31
OK, scroll below that. You'll see those custom links
31:34
for Rhythm and Juice Reel. Download them and get started
31:37
with a 7 day free trial so they can help you win as they help me
31:40
win. Lastly, of course, couple things
31:43
to leave you with, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
31:46
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
31:47
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
31:51
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
31:54
and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
31:56
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
31:59
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners with low as
32:02
true as possible as found the South point or sweating sharp
32:04
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
32:07
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
32:09
you're just going to you're just going to grab the broom and
32:12
we're going to make eye contact Brooms, baby.
32:14
Another great night last night, a sweep 3 and O + 2.5 units.
32:18
Show me a Padres ticket and FIU ticket, A Sunlinks over ticket.
32:22
First one's on me. Next one's on you will post
32:24
about the book Sweat Sharp Contrarian Plays all Night long.
32:27
I wanted to mention before we get out of here, one last thing.
32:30
I'm having some people reach out to me and saying where are your
32:33
NHL best bets? Don't worry, we are going to bet
32:36
NHL. But I'm going to give it a few
32:38
more days here. I'd like to dust off my systems,
32:42
get a couple games under our belt, get a feel for some of
32:45
these teams and some monitoring of the market.
32:48
So don't worry, we are going to bet hockey.
32:51
I know it's open last night, even though my Bruins didn't
32:53
show up, but we will bet hockey, I'm just going to kind of take a
32:56
slow approach to it's a long season.
32:58
Let's give it some time to marinate and feel like we have
33:00
an edge when we enter versus being blind and not really
33:03
knowing the strengths or weaknesses of these teams
33:05
because it's so early. Secondly, if you are in Florida,
33:09
please be safe. Evacuate if they're telling you
33:12
to evacuate. You know, I have some friends
33:15
and relatives in Florida who are I've won in Orlando.
33:19
I have a friend in Jacksonville, you know, I know Tampa Bay and
33:23
where I think Sarasota really in the eye of a really bad storm.
33:28
So please be safe, be careful. If they tell you to leave, get
33:31
out of there. You know, hopefully, hopefully
33:33
everything is OK, but it sounds like it's going to be a bad one.
33:36
So, you know, we always talk sports and it's our passion.
33:40
But you know, you got you got to know what what's really
33:43
important in life, your, your life and your family and hope
33:46
everyone is OK. I'm thinking of you guys in
33:48
Florida, but that about does everyone another pod here in the
33:51
books. As always my parting address if
33:55
if you haven't heard it yet, but I'm sure you have.
33:58
By the way, my allergies are killing me.
33:59
I don't know what's going on just started sniffling.
34:01
But anyway, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
34:04
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
34:06
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
34:08
Will smart money when every time?
34:10
Of course not. Nothing is a locker a guarantee.
34:12
Betting is hard, but you know what, when you have four
34:15
straight winning days when you sweep the board, it gives you
34:17
confidence knowing that even though it's hard, we can win if
34:20
we stick to the model, which you guys know by now against the
34:23
public with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
34:27
get that closing line value. If we can do that long term,
34:30
we're going to be successful betters.
34:31
So a three pack tonight, guys, let's try to go 2 and one and
34:34
keep the good vibes rolling. We'll be back at it tomorrow for
34:37
a big thirsty Thursday on episode 138 of the All Systems
34:41
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
34:44
Good luck everybody, have a great Wednesday night.