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Episode 37 - 5/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode 37 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Monday. A new week begins.
• 0:37
  And how was your weekend guys? I had a great weekend.
• 0:39
  You know why? Because I thought my hockey
• 0:41
  season might be coming to an end.
• 0:43
  But Nope, we live to fight another day.
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  The Boston Bruins. I could feel that collapse deep
• 0:49
  in my bones and other three one series loss.
• 0:52
  But guess what? David Posternoc.
• 0:53
  In overtime the Bees win. We now move on to play the
• 0:57
  Florida Panthers. I do have a bet on tonight's
• 0:59
  game. One for the Panthers and the
• 1:01
  Bruins and even better, we cashed our Bruins series bet
• 1:04
  -125. It wasn't easy, had to go to
• 1:07
  overtime. In game seven we got our Bruins
• 1:09
  series bet. Also got a Cavs series bet which
• 1:12
  came through in game seven at home for Cleveland who now goes
• 1:15
  to face the Celtics. And if you're a Boston fan like
• 1:19
  me, I'm in Massachusetts obviously born and raised if you
• 1:21
  didn't know. But it's about as good as it
• 1:23
  gets. I think the next I want to say
• 1:25
  the next like seven days it goes Monday Bruins.
• 1:29
  Tuesday Celtics. Wednesday, Bruins.
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  Thursday, Celtics. Friday, Bruins.
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  Saturday, Celtics. Sunday, Bruins.
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  Monday, Celtics. So literally every single day
• 1:38
  moving forward, I have either my basketball team or my hockey
• 1:41
  team playing. So I'm in a pretty good mood
• 1:43
  here guys as we advance in the postseason, but a lot to get to
• 1:47
  on today's pod. Starting off a new week here, I
• 1:49
  do have a 5 pack of sweats for you including three Major League
• 1:52
  Baseball bats. One NHL bet as I mentioned,
• 1:55
  which not only is a bet that I was going to make anyway based
• 1:58
  on my own approach to handicapping the game, but I
• 2:00
  popped open one of my new favorite betting apps.
• 2:03
  There's two of them, It's Rhythm and it's Juice Reel.
• 2:06
  We talked about Juice Reel, which is a fantastic sports
• 2:08
  betting app. You can look at tracking your
• 2:10
  bets. They provide a couple AI
• 2:13
  generated picks each day, which are doing great with Robo
• 2:15
  Jackson, but also I'm going to introduce you to the Sharp Mush,
• 2:20
  which is very interesting. I'm going to tell you all about
• 2:22
  it and it actually overlaps with the way I was going to play this
• 2:24
  Bruins, Florida Panthers game tonight.
• 2:26
  So I'm going to tell you a little bit more about Juice Reel
• 2:28
  and then of course with rhythm. We have an NBA prop bet for you
• 2:32
  here. We're going to look at a player
• 2:33
  proper. We're going to look at this one
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  particular player tonight, hopefully go over 3 1/2
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  rebounds. So a lot to get to on today's
• 2:39
  pod. Also, I'm going to mention
• 2:40
  another series bet because I love having series bets in
• 2:43
  pocket, something that you have a rooting interest for
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  throughout the series. You can hedge it if it comes to
• 2:48
  that, but hopefully you can either take advantage of a good
• 2:51
  number before series begins like we played the Bruins and the
• 2:54
  Cavs before both games, both game one game games one were
• 2:58
  played. But also I'm going to take a
• 3:00
  shot on a series bet right now. We're already one team's up one
• 3:03
  O and I'm going to bet on this other team to come back and win
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  this year. So I'll tell you who that is on
• 3:07
  today's episode of the All Systems Go Pod episode 37.
• 3:11
  So A5 pack three MLB today, one NHL, one NBA, and then a series
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  bet as well. So without further ado, I want
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  to jump right in to some Major League Baseball because we got a
• 3:21
  bit of a smaller than usual Slate 10 game slate here today.
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  But they're a bunch of games that caught my eye, so let's
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  just get right to it. First one on the board, let's
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  look at San Francisco and Philadelphia.
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  Now, this is a pretty hefty price.
• 3:33
  I wrote about this game a little bit earlier today, The Sharp
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  Report for beeson.com, which you can always check out for my
• 3:38
  Twitter page at Josh under score Insights usually post that
• 3:41
  around noon each Eastern Time each day.
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  I got the Philadelphia Phillies earlier today at -210.
• 3:47
  Now it's a little bit higher now.
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  Again, -220, even -230. I don't really like playing
• 3:52
  numbers this high. It's about as high as I'll go as
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  202. Ten.
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  But I still think there's value here if you want to play it.
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  A good sign. The line keeps going to Philly.
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  Not a great sign if you haven't Betty yet 'cause this line keeps
• 4:02
  moving. But always remember in preface
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  by saying every play we make every recommended bet on the all
• 4:08
  systems go pod. It's always a bet to risk, not
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  bet to win. So if you're playing Philly now
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  -220, you're not risking 2.2 units to win one unit.
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  They'll be betting to win. You're always betting to risk.
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  Every bet is betting to risk. So risking 1 unit on Philly, now
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  -220, trying to get a half unit back if they win.
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  So always remember that because if you bet to win on a Philly
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  -220 and they lose, you lose 2.2 units instead of losing just one
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  unit. Which we betting to risk.
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  Always remember bet to risk, it'll save you if you ever lose
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  on favorites. Also give you more of an ROI
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  when you bet and cash a plus money dog.
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  But anyway, why do I like Philly today?
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  Let's set the stages of the 4th and final game of a four-game
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  series. Phillies are 24 and 11.
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  They won three straight. They won last night, Sunday
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  Night Baseball 5 to 4 as around a -, 110 home favorite.
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  Today's game four O 5:00 PM Eastern Time.
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  It's a little bit earlier. If you want to play it, make
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  sure you get it in. Get it in on time.
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  Giants 15 and 20. They're going with Mason Black,
• 5:03
  who's making his Major League Baseball debut first ever start.
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  He'll be opposed by the veteran righty Zach Wheeler for the
• 5:09
  Phills 3 and three 1.91 ERA. But to me guys, this is all
• 5:13
  about steam on Philly with absolutely no let up.
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  So even the line's getting worse.
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  It's getting more expensive. There really hasn't been any buy
• 5:19
  back on San Fran to move it back down, which again is a good sign
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  that basically smart money keeps hitting Philly even though the
• 5:25
  line gets a little bit more expensive.
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  But Philly open as low as -190 -, 195 again, I bet a -, 210
• 5:31
  this morning. Now they're all the way up to
• 5:33
  -220, even -230. At some shops.
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  They're getting 90% of bets, but 97% of the money.
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  So it tells us the Publix riding Philly.
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  Remember, not a lot of public in Major League Baseball.
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  Not like the NFL but also a ton of sharp money with a line
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  moving a good bet. Sweat in favor of Philly.
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  I'm going to make on the phills their bats.
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  They're hitting two 5542 bombs. 172 runs scored.
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  Giants hitting 2:38 with only 32 homers. 131 runs scored.
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  Here's an angle for you. Bigger favorites of -200 or more
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  when they're at home. So big home favorites, -200 or
• 6:05
  more. They're 38 and 1473% this year
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  and you might say, hey, that's a good win loss, but are you
• 6:11
  overcoming the juice because of the expensive price?
• 6:13
  You actually are. That's a 5% ROI.
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  Philly also is pretty good at home, 13 and 6, San Fran, just
• 6:19
  six and 13 on the road. Philly's plus 40 and run
• 6:22
  differential Giants are -36. And I did see a little bit of
• 6:26
  under money coming early, hit the under 8, dropped it down to
• 6:29
  7 1/2. But I'm going Philly here guys,
• 6:31
  hopefully to start the day with the winner again, I got Philly
• 6:34
  -210. Now if you're playing it, you're
• 6:36
  looking at around a -, 220. Again, shop around, have
• 6:39
  multiple outs because I see a a 220 out there.
• 6:41
  I see a 2:30, I see a 235. So make sure you bet at the book
• 6:45
  giving you the best number. Well, let's go Phil's, we'll
• 6:48
  call it a 220 here on the pod. Keep on cruising.
• 6:51
  Let's go to the Buckos at home against the Angels.
• 6:54
  And I'm going with Pittsburgh. Give me Pittsburgh.
• 6:57
  I, I got Pittsburgh at -155 earlier today.
• 7:00
  Now you're looking at around -160.
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  But to set the stage here, the Angels are visiting the Pirates.
• 7:05
  The Angels are 12 and 22. Started off pretty good.
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  Then Mike Trout got hurt pretty much the the wheels have fallen
• 7:11
  off. They're just three and 13 over
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  their last sixteen games. Just lost two or three against
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  the Guardians. They lost 4:00 to 1:00 on Sunday
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  as a + 130 Rd. dog. Meanwhile, the Pirates 16 and
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  19, another good start. They've tailed off a bit.
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  They did just win two out of three against the Rockies.
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  They won five to three yesterday as a -, 160 home favorite for
• 7:30
  tonight's interleague series opener LA.
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  Going with lefty Tyler Anderson. He's been pretty good.
• 7:35
  Two and three 2.23 ERA. He'll be opposed by Mitch
• 7:38
  Keller. They're ready for the Pirates
• 7:40
  two and three, 5.18 ERA. But once again, guys, big steam
• 7:44
  in favor of Pittsburgh. That's where I want to go.
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  Pittsburgh open this game as low as -130 -, 135.
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  Now they're up to -155 -, 160. So that is a pretty big steam
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  move here hitting Pittsburgh causing that big adjustment in
• 7:57
  their favor. Now the Pirates are getting 72%
• 8:01
  of bets, but 93% of the money. Really good bet split there
• 8:05
  nearly a + 20 or plus 21% discrepancy, basically.
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  Basically three out of four bets but no more than nine out of
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  $10. Telling us, even though it might
• 8:13
  be slightly public, a lot of wise guy money here is hitting
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  Pittsburgh, moving that number now interleague favorites off a
• 8:19
  win like the Pirates here. They're 45 and 2961% with a 4%
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  ROI this year. You also have some correlative
• 8:26
  betting value, which we favorite.
• 8:28
  Low total total in this one is 8.
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  Some books are even down to 7 1/2, but fewer amount of
• 8:33
  expected runs scored. More likely to come from, quote
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  UN quote, the better team who's expected to win based upon the
• 8:38
  favorite designation. Another thing I like about
• 8:40
  Pittsburgh, hopefully this will come true.
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  Better bullpen, 3.76 ERA versus 5.24.
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  Angels have had one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year.
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  And then you have coral tibetting once again.
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  Favorite low total total again 8 seven and a half.
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  I think I mentioned that. But anyway, I'm going to
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  Pittsburgh here. This is one of the early moves
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  overnight, early early morning that jumped out to me.
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  Just big steam hitting the buckles.
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  I don't know if it's Billy Walters or somebody else, but if
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  they like it and they're causing that big adjustment, I want to
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  be with that sharp steam move. Give me Pittsburgh.
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  I got the Bucks at -155 Last bit of the night in Major League
• 9:14
  Baseball for you little clash out West AL West between the
• 9:17
  Texas Rangers and the Oakland A's and I'm going to go with the
• 9:21
  Texas Rangers. Baby Walker, Texas Ranger.
• 9:24
  That's right. First, offsetting the stage
• 9:26
  Rangers 19 and 16. On the year they just took two
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  or three against the Royals. They won Sunday series finale 3
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  to 2 and X trainings cashing as a -, 135 Rd. favorite.
• 9:36
  Meanwhile the A's 17 and 18. They've done pretty well here.
• 9:40
  Bit bit of a surprise I must say, even though going into the
• 9:43
  year I want to say their win total was 57 and a lot of people
• 9:47
  love that under because hey, they had a such a bad year last
• 9:50
  year. But the fan graphs analytics, I
• 9:52
  want to say, projected like 62 wins.
• 9:55
  So I don't know if anyone did end up playing Oakland's season
• 9:57
  win total over, but they're not a shoo in this year.
• 9:59
  But hopefully they are. Or not a shoo in but not a what
• 10:03
  should I say? Not a team that just gets rolled
• 10:05
  every game anymore. They're competitive this year,
• 10:07
  but I hope they're not tonight because I'm going Texas Rangers
• 10:10
  anyway, Pitching match up tonight.
• 10:13
  Texas Rangers are going with Andrew Heaney, the lefty O and
• 10:16
  four 5.1 OERA. Oakland meanwhile is going with
• 10:19
  fellow southpaw Alex Wood one and two 6.32 ERA, but once
• 10:24
  again, good sharp move in favor of Texas.
• 10:26
  The Rangers open around -125 on the road.
• 10:29
  Now they're up to -135, some shops even hinting at around a
• 10:33
  -, 140. So pretty much all movement
• 10:35
  liability in favor of the Rangers.
• 10:37
  As soon as this line open you had consistent movement hitting
• 10:39
  Texas. Now the Rangers getting 79% of
• 10:42
  bets but 89% of dollars. So a low bets, higher dollars
• 10:46
  bet split once again banking on the offense of Texas to show up.
• 10:49
  Tonight they're hitting 252 with 160 four runs scored.
• 10:53
  Oakland sitting 2:15 with only 124 runs scored.
• 10:57
  System matches quite a few on Texas Rd. favorites this year.
• 11:00
  Very simple system 104 and 7060% with a 5% ROI.
• 11:05
  Meanwhile, Texas six and four against lefties and they're 32
• 11:09
  and 21 against lefty since the start of last year.
• 11:11
  That's a 60% win percentage. Another correlative betting
• 11:15
  fave. Low total, so -135.
• 11:17
  Texas total in this one was 8 down to 7, 1/2 as well as Texas
• 11:21
  9:00 and 7:00 on the road. Oakland 9 and 10 at home.
• 11:24
  So a little bit of steam. Good movement on a road
• 11:27
  favorite. Seems like a decent price to
• 11:28
  back Texas here with a good sharp steam move.
• 11:31
  I'm going Rangers. We got the Rangers at -135.
• 11:35
  South Philly, Pittsburgh, Texas. Can we get two out of three?
• 11:38
  That is the goal. Keep on cruising.
• 11:40
  Now let's go over to the NHL, because my Boston Bruins, just
• 11:44
  when I felt like they were going to rip my heart out and dance to
• 11:46
  the beat for two years in a row, they find a way to survive in
• 11:49
  advance. And I got at least two more
• 11:51
  weeks of hockey. So I'm very happy that the
• 11:53
  Boston Bruins stayed alive and now they are playing the Florida
• 11:57
  Panthers. So this is kind of a crazy
• 11:59
  series because if you remember last year Bruins won the regular
• 12:02
  season with the best record of all time.
• 12:05
  Then they had a three one lead against Florida.
• 12:06
  They coughed it up, they lost the series.
• 12:08
  So there's a lot of, you know, exercising of demons with this
• 12:11
  match up this year. But I must say, you know it's a
• 12:13
  kind of a role reversal because the Bruins were the big favorite
• 12:16
  against Florida and Blewett. Now it's it's the opposite this
• 12:19
  year. Florida's the big favorite
• 12:20
  against the Bruins. The Florida Panthers are -190
• 12:23
  series price Bruins are plus 160.
• 12:27
  In terms of tonight though couple things going on.
• 12:29
  There has been a little movement toward Boston.
• 12:31
  So Florida open like -175 now they're down to like -165.
• 12:35
  S like plus 155 to plus 145 in favor of Boston.
• 12:39
  So a little bit of movement toward the bees, but I keep
• 12:42
  looking at this total and it keeps staring at me the under 5
• 12:46
  1/2. So that's what I'm going to do.
• 12:47
  I'm playing under 5 1/2. I'll tell you why I'm playing
• 12:50
  it, then I'm going to tell you why Juice Reel also likes this
• 12:54
  under 5 1/2. And I'm going to introduce you
• 12:56
  to the sharp mush indicator, which is a really interesting
• 13:00
  idea and really cool thing that Juice Reel has to help you make
• 13:03
  smart bets. So anyway, if you look at the 5
• 13:07
  1/2 total seems low, right? Well it's 5 1/2 but it's really
• 13:11
  juiced up under 5 1/2 under -120 -, 125.
• 13:15
  It actually opened 5 1/2 under as low as -115.
• 13:19
  So the juice has risen on the under.
• 13:21
  I know it's kind of an oxymoron, how can you rise and go down?
• 13:24
  But whole point being is the oddsmakers are paying making you
• 13:27
  pay a more expensive price to go under 5 1/2 here -115 to -120 -
• 13:31
  125 till the smart money is leaning under here.
• 13:35
  Now decent bet split 45% bets. 55% money is on this under.
• 13:41
  But really I'm looking at the goalies and the defensive nature
• 13:44
  of both teams. Because if you look at goals
• 13:46
  allowed per game this year Florida was first in the NHL,
• 13:49
  only gave up 2.4 two goals a game.
• 13:51
  Boston only gave up two point 7A game.
• 13:53
  That's fifth best. SO top five defenses here also
• 13:58
  top six penalty kills. Florida and Boston are tied
• 14:01
  82.5% nearly 83%. So both PKS are good, but really
• 14:06
  it's the defense of these teams. In particular goaltending.
• 14:09
  Jeremy Swiman absolutely unbelievable.
• 14:11
  I haven't seen a goalie play that well in the post season
• 14:13
  since Tim Thomas in 2011, who was again the pride of the
• 14:17
  University of Vermont, my alma mater.
• 14:19
  But anyway, Jeremy Swiman against the Leafs Four and two
• 14:22
  1.49 goals against 950 save percentage.
• 14:25
  Guy was unbelievable. Bobrovsky.
• 14:28
  He was also good, four to one win series win against the the
• 14:32
  Lightning, 2.78 goals against 896 a percentage.
• 14:36
  And then if you look at during the regular season, This is why
• 14:38
  I think there's some optimism for Boston in the series.
• 14:41
  I know obviously Florida's a big favorite, -190, but the Bruins
• 14:44
  were four and O against Florida this year.
• 14:46
  They beat them three to 2/3 to 1/4 to 3:00 and 3:00 to 2:00.
• 14:50
  So if you average those games out, now this is an inexact
• 14:52
  science, but the average Boston, Florida game this year had 5.25
• 14:57
  goals. So if we're going under 5 1/2,
• 15:00
  again that's what we've seen throughout the regular season, 3
• 15:03
  to 1, three to two, those type of games, I think it's probably
• 15:06
  going to be tight checking, maybe feel it out, but to me
• 15:09
  it's a good opportunity to play the under tonight.
• 15:12
  So I I said hey, I'm going under 5 1/2.
• 15:14
  But then as I open up my Juice Reel app, which Juice Reel I'm
• 15:19
  very proud to partner with and they're going to help us out on
• 15:21
  the pod moving forward. They just have a really cool
• 15:25
  feature called Sharp Mush. So if you create an account, and
• 15:28
  I'm going to tell you in a second how to create a create an
• 15:30
  account with Juice Reel, because I want you guys to take
• 15:31
  advantage of this Juice Reel data.
• 15:34
  But you click the sharp mush and this is really interesting.
• 15:37
  It's a really cool idea. So the sharp Mush is a feature
• 15:40
  that measures the difference between what our best and worst
• 15:43
  bettors are betting on. So what does that mean?
• 15:46
  It means that Juice Reel who has thousands of members, basically
• 15:49
  Juice Reel because people sync their accounts and you track
• 15:54
  your bets. Juice Reel has the data of all
• 15:56
  their people who have their app and then they track the
• 15:59
  performance of all the bettors and basically they'll kind of
• 16:01
  designate you either a sharp or kind of a mush and not a very
• 16:05
  good better. So what they do is they they
• 16:07
  pick a game or they have every game basically.
• 16:09
  And then they look at, hey, do we have all of our wise guys on
• 16:13
  one side and all of our really bad betters on the other?
• 16:16
  If they can basically find angles in that way, then it
• 16:20
  becomes a sharp mush play. So what does that mean?
• 16:22
  What it means is that for this total, 80% of the sharpest
• 16:27
  betters on Mush Reel are taking the under 60%.
• 16:30
  I think 6570% of the worst betters on the app are taking
• 16:34
  the over. So basically what that means is
• 16:36
  that the sharp mush indicator is that the sharps are on the under
• 16:39
  here under 5 1/2 the mushes, the bad betters are on the over 5
• 16:43
  1/2. So it's just kind of a really
• 16:45
  cool, I don't know even know what you call it like just kind
• 16:48
  of a indicator or a way to identify almost like pro verse
• 16:52
  Joe's, the top pro verse Joe plays of the day.
• 16:55
  So this is just really awesome and I'm really learning more
• 16:58
  about Juice Reel. Juice Reel you can sync your
• 17:01
  sports books once you bet. Like if you sync your you know,
• 17:05
  your DraftKings, your FanDuel, your ESPN bet account with Juice
• 17:08
  Reel. Then anytime you place a bet in
• 17:10
  one of those sports books, it automatically loads onto Juice
• 17:13
  Reel. You get a report card.
• 17:14
  You can learn about yourself as a better you can track the Robo
• 17:18
  Jackson pics of the day. There's two more for today and
• 17:21
  Robo Jackson has been killing it now on the year because he was
• 17:24
  actually two and O yesterday with Robo Jackson and he is now
• 17:30
  235 and 185. I say he it's this is a it's an
• 17:33
  AI bot that basically has been known to do it all.
• 17:38
  All the data Juice Real has to offer find the absolute best
• 17:40
  bets across each sport SO2A day. So if you want to check out what
• 17:43
  those are again you have to sign up for Juice Reel.
• 17:47
  There's also a cool thing arbitrage.
• 17:49
  So you're not going to become a millionaire overnight, but
• 17:51
  arbitrage is basically where you bet both sides of the same bet
• 17:54
  at different books and you guarantee yourself an out a
• 17:56
  winner. So there's one here today, like
• 17:58
  Taylor Larnac Home runs, you can guarantee yourself a profit of
• 18:02
  $9 if you risk 490 on under a half Homer at -450 and risk 100
• 18:07
  on over half Homer at +500. No matter what happens, you're
• 18:10
  guaranteed to win $9. So it's just kind of a cool
• 18:13
  feature there. But I want you to take advantage
• 18:15
  of Juice Reel because it's an app that I believe in.
• 18:19
  I know the the CEO, Ricky Gold, great guy, and it can really
• 18:22
  benefit you and help you to make smart bets.
• 18:25
  So in order to sign up for Juice Reel, what I want you to do is
• 18:28
  if you're listening in either the iTunes or Spotify within the
• 18:32
  bio of this app or the bio of this within the bio description
• 18:38
  of this podcast, I should say there's going to be a link to
• 18:40
  sign up for Rhythm and sign up for Juice Reel.
• 18:42
  You can just click that. It's important you click that
• 18:45
  link because that's my referral link.
• 18:46
  I want them to know that I'm sending you their way because I
• 18:49
  want to help them grow and that's why you can start using
• 18:52
  Juice Reel to your advantage. So use Juice Reel and it is once
• 18:56
  again another James Santor special who is one of the wisest
• 19:00
  wise guys around who helped get both Rhythm and Juice Reel off
• 19:03
  the ground. So that's it.
• 19:05
  The Juice Reel, Sharp Mush play of the day and my play of the
• 19:07
  day overlap. We're going Bruins, Florida,
• 19:09
  Panthers under 5 1/2 goals now to finish it up in the NBA.
• 19:13
  There are are two games here at Titan in the NBA and the one
• 19:17
  that I'm going to focus on is the Timberwolves and the Nuggets
• 19:21
  as well as the Pacers and the Knicks.
• 19:23
  Them actually have a game on both these ones.
• 19:25
  Bad on both these. So let's start off with the
• 19:27
  first one, 7:30 PM Pacers, Knicks.
• 19:29
  I'm going to go with the player prop.
• 19:31
  I was looking at rhythm earlier today looking at some player
• 19:33
  prop opportunities here and one jumped out to me.
• 19:37
  Dante de Vincenzo. Remember him from Villanova?
• 19:41
  Are they the Knicks or are they the Villanova Wildcats with Josh
• 19:44
  Hart and Brunson and De Vincenzo?
• 19:45
  But anyway, I stumbled on Divincenzo on Rhythm over 3 1/2
• 19:50
  rebounds tonight. Now it's two stop -120, so
• 19:53
  little liability over tells us they're smart money leaning over
• 19:56
  here. But Divincenzo has gone over
• 19:58
  this number, so he's had at least 4 rebounds and four of his
• 20:01
  last five games and an eight of his last 10 games.
• 20:04
  Rhythm is projecting Divincenzo with 4.6 rebounds tonight, so if
• 20:09
  we're going over 3 1/2, they project 4.6.
• 20:12
  That's a pretty good edge there to take advantage of and in the
• 20:15
  post season. D Vincenzo.
• 20:17
  He's a starter. He's averaging 32 minutes per
• 20:19
  game. That's the fourth most minutes
• 20:21
  per game on the Knicks. So Knicks here are about a 5 1/2
• 20:24
  point favorite. That line did tick down a little
• 20:26
  bit. They're -6 1/2 down to 5 1/2.
• 20:30
  Total is ticked up a little bit in that 1216 to 2:17-ish, but
• 20:34
  I'm going to go with D Vincenzo over 3 1/2 rebounds.
• 20:37
  Can you get us four boards tonight?
• 20:39
  Let's go D Vincenzo. A rhythm special prop of the day
• 20:44
  and rhythm is fantastic at both at both their game and player
• 20:48
  prop picks. And I want you to sign up for
• 20:51
  rhythm by again. You can either go to my Twitter
• 20:53
  page at Josh under score Insights but make it easy.
• 20:55
  I'm going to start putting both the Juice reel and the Rhythm
• 20:59
  sign up links for the seven day free trial within the bio
• 21:02
  description of each podcast. So within this podcast today,
• 21:06
  click it. Both links will be there.
• 21:07
  You can give both rhythm and both juice reel a shot.
• 21:11
  Now I'm going to finish up the pod with a series bet because I
• 21:14
  like holding some series tickets.
• 21:16
  Gives you a rooting interest throughout the series and you
• 21:18
  can use that as a bankroll builder.
• 21:20
  You know we had to wait but we got we got the Bruins and the
• 21:22
  Cavs and I'm going to take advantage of a bylaw opportunity
• 21:26
  in terms of the Denver Nuggets. Now the Denver Nuggets are down
• 21:30
  O one in the series. They lost the first game to the
• 21:33
  T Wolves. Anthony Edwards was incredible.
• 21:36
  But looking toward tonight, couple things I noticed.
• 21:39
  One is the Lions going to Denver down O one or one O, whatever
• 21:42
  you want to call it Now they're down one game to nothing at
• 21:45
  home. Tonight the line is moving
• 21:46
  toward Denver. They open -5.
• 21:49
  They're up to -6 even now -6, 1/2.
• 21:51
  At some shops they match a couple systems.
• 21:53
  For me these are a little bit high for money lines but I got a
• 21:58
  lot of like -250. That's a little high for me but
• 22:01
  it they would match with favorite off a loss.
• 22:03
  Playoff home faves home teams all matching with Denver and I
• 22:06
  have an experience system if you made the playoffs last year and
• 22:09
  you are down in the series as a favorite so it's kind of a fade.
• 22:13
  The trendy dog tickets are basically split with 60% of the
• 22:16
  money is on Denver So I'm thinking to myself, hey, and
• 22:19
  also I noticed that Rudy Gobert. I want to say I read a report he
• 22:22
  may be his wife may be having a or his girlfriend might have a
• 22:25
  baby which is why he's questionable for tonight.
• 22:27
  He may miss the game. Maybe that's why the line's
• 22:29
  moving to Denver. But anyway opportunity here is
• 22:33
  you know, do I lay it with the Nuggets tonight?
• 22:35
  Do I lay the six 6 1/2 or do I look at the series price.
• 22:39
  That's what I'm doing. I'm going series price, guys.
• 22:41
  The Denver Nuggets open the series as a -, 220 favorite to
• 22:46
  win the series. That's a pretty substantial
• 22:48
  favorite. They've lost game one and guess
• 22:50
  what their price is now for Denver to again win the series,
• 22:53
  they got to, you know, even it up and then and then win the
• 22:56
  series they got to win four games so they got to win what
• 22:59
  for the next 6. But if you look at the series
• 23:02
  price now it's Denver plus one O 5.
• 23:06
  So what I'm going to do is I'm making a unit bet here on Denver
• 23:09
  at plus one O 5 to win the series.
• 23:12
  We're getting a pretty good buy low number here.
• 23:14
  Again, they are expected to win the series at a price of -220.
• 23:18
  Now we're getting plus one O 5 down one O.
• 23:20
  Hopefully they win tonight. Lions will be in their favor.
• 23:23
  Then that plus one O 5 will be gone and it'll be, I don't know,
• 23:26
  -120 -, 140. As the series shifts toward
• 23:29
  Minnesota I'm going to bank on the experience of the Denver
• 23:32
  Nuggets and also look at the bet splits here going into the
• 23:37
  series. 44% bets, but 64% of the money was on Denver to win the
• 23:42
  series. So a bit of a surprise they lost
• 23:44
  the opener. I think it's a good opportunity
• 23:46
  here to bet Denver tonight or bet them today before this game
• 23:49
  starts here tonight. Because if they win tonight,
• 23:52
  which the lion's moving in their favor, they're at home.
• 23:54
  You can't go down O2 and then go on the road.
• 23:56
  That's a pretty good number plus one O 5.
• 23:58
  So I'm taking the plus one O 5. Buying low on the nugs down one
• 24:01
  O in the series. Let's come back and win it.
• 24:03
  Let's go Yokich. I am on Denver plus one O 5
• 24:07
  Series price so that about does it.
• 24:10
  Another episode here in the books.
• 24:11
  Episode 37 of the all systems go pod.
• 24:14
  But reminder, if you enjoy the podcast, hopefully you do.
• 24:17
  Hopefully you use it as a tool to make sharper bets.
• 24:20
  Maybe you listen and play everything I say or play nothing
• 24:23
  I say. Tail fade whatever you want.
• 24:25
  But I'm very proud of the community we've created because
• 24:27
  this is an opinion based No no, no no no opinions.
• 24:31
  Know what I think. Know what I think will happen.
• 24:33
  What I want will happen Who's due.
• 24:35
  It's all about numbers. Reading the market.
• 24:36
  Reading the data And that's the niche and community that we've
• 24:39
  created. So thank you for listening each
• 24:41
  day. But also, can you make my day?
• 24:43
  Can you help me to promote and grow this podcast?
• 24:45
  All I need you to do is one thing for me.
• 24:48
  Can you give this podcast a five star review?
• 24:51
  Click five stars for either Spotify or iTunes.
• 24:54
  It would help us grow and continue to rise up the charts.
• 24:57
  But a five star review would go a long way.
• 24:59
  I'd really appreciate that. So if you're listening, can you
• 25:01
  give it five stars? If you can?
• 25:03
  Thank you. Next, if you enjoy the pod and
• 25:05
  you want to learn more about data-driven sports betting, how
• 25:08
  markets move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 25:11
  action, How to place a bet in person or online.
• 25:13
  How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
• 25:15
  management plan. Guess what?
• 25:17
  I wrote a book called The Everything Guide to Sports
• 25:19
  Betting. Just go to Amazon.com.
• 25:21
  Type in the Everything Guide to sports betting.
• 25:24
  Buy a copy for you or for a friend.
• 25:26
  It would mean a lot to me, guys. And when I see you at the bar or
• 25:28
  at the book or at the bar, how about the bar at the book?
• 25:31
  I'm going to buy you a beer and I'm going to sign that copy of
• 25:34
  the Everything Guided Sports Betting for you.
• 25:36
  So if you already bought it, thank you.
• 25:38
  If you're thinking of a gift or have no idea what to get mom for
• 25:41
  Mother's Day or dad for Father's Day or, you know, whatever the
• 25:44
  case may be, get him the Everything Guide to Sports
• 25:46
  Betting. Only 20 bucks and hopefully
• 25:48
  they'll they'll learn how to read the market and make smarter
• 25:50
  bets. That's always the goal.
• 25:52
  So that about does it, everyone. Another episode here in the
• 25:55
  books, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 25:58
  River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
• 26:01
  Mohegan Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
• 26:03
  Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
• 26:06
  And my neck of the woods in Boston.
• 26:08
  Or, of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 26:11
  down. Where Billy Walters sends his
• 26:12
  number runners where lowest juice possible is found at the
• 26:14
  South Point. Or Sweat and Sharp can train
• 26:16
  plays at circa jumping in the stadium swim pool.
• 26:20
  When the Boston Bruins win game seven and overtime, whatever the
• 26:23
  case may be, you're going to walk up to me and you're going
• 26:24
  to show me a Bruins series ticket or a Cavs series ticket.
• 26:29
  And guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 26:31
  you. We're going to post about the
• 26:32
  book such sharp contrarian plays all night long.
• 26:35
  So once again guys, sign up for that juice reel and rhythm 7 day
• 26:38
  free trial so you can start taking advantage of data-driven
• 26:41
  AI back picks. And guess what?
• 26:44
  I'll see you guys tomorrow for another big pod episode 38.
• 26:47
  But parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
• 26:49
  against the public, place yourself on the side of the
• 26:51
  house. Always be with the smart money,
• 26:54
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 26:56
  Of course not. If you haven't realized yet,
• 26:58
  sports betting is difficult. It ain't easy.
• 27:00
  But that that's what makes it challenging.
• 27:02
  That makes it. That's what makes it rewarding.
• 27:04
  When you're struggling, don't get down on yourself.
• 27:06
  When you're winning, don't get cocky.
• 27:08
  You're always somewhere even keel in the middle, flat
• 27:11
  betting, making data-driven bets.
• 27:12
  We can do that. We're going to be successful
• 27:14
  sports bettors. So against the public, with the
• 27:16
  house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays getting CLV.
• 27:19
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 27:22
  So let's go Bruins, let's go under 5 1/2.
• 27:25
  Let's cash some of these tickets, guys.
• 27:27
  I'll see you tomorrow for episode 38 of the All Systems Go
• 27:30
  Sports Betting podcast. Good luck.