Latest / The Fourcast / Israel, Syria, Iran: how the Middle East is about to change

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Israel, Syria, Iran: how the Middle East is about to change · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast and this special look
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at what's next for the Middle East.
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Democracy in Syria, a ceasefire in Gaza, Iran on the brink,
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Israel unleashed, more unleashed.
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And then there's the Donald Trump factor.
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Could 2025 be the year the Middle East is completely
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rearranged? Well, to dig into all of this,
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I'm joined by two Channel 4 News, foreign affairs
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heavyweights Sukonda Kamani and Jonathan Rugman.
0:24
Welcome to you both. What surprised you most about
0:26
the last six months? Jonathan, you first.
0:29
I think what surprised me most was the fall of the Assad regime
0:34
in Syria in less than a fortnight.
0:37
And when I covered it for Channel 4 News, I wrote a script
0:41
and I said, well, I think the Iranians will rush to Assad's
0:45
defence and the Russians will unleash their jets and do what
0:50
they did in 2015 and push the rebels back.
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And what happened was that the advance was so quick and I think
0:58
the Iranians were so depleted by and their allies, Hezbollah, so
1:03
depleted by Israeli attacks that they didn't respond.
1:08
And I think the Russians responded probably too late and
1:13
made. They were busy elsewhere too.
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They were busy elsewhere, but perhaps more to the point, they
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at some point they decided that this guy in Damascus was no
1:21
longer worth defending, perhaps did they really want to unleash
1:25
another wave of air strikes and of the kind that they did in
1:29
Aleppo in 2015? So that's really surprised me.
1:33
And I think it's ending the year, for me at least, with a
1:36
degree of hope because I think that Jelani, the leader of this
1:41
rebel insurgency, I mean, the word that's often used about him
1:44
is that he's thoughtful and he's had quite a long time to think.
1:47
I mean, he's had years to sort of disassociate himself from al
1:51
Qaeda. And I think having covered the
1:54
Arab Spring in 2011, there was no second chance for those
1:59
countries. They've all slipped back either
2:03
into chaos or to a degree of authoritarianism.
2:05
The Arab Spring didn't work and now Syria has got a second
2:09
chance, which is a wonderful thing.
2:11
And a unique thing in the region.
2:12
A unique thing. And because maybe half a million
2:15
people have been killed in the intervening years, that is a
2:18
serious, sobering wake up call for Syrians as to whether they
2:21
really want another civil war or whether they can actually pull
2:25
off the second chance that they've now now been given.
2:29
We'll look at the, you know, what will happen to Syria in a
2:31
minute. But just quickly, Sekh, I mean,
2:33
there was this extraordinary scene of Prime Minister
2:36
Netanyahu standing not on the Golan Heights, but in the in the
2:40
buffer zone that Israel moved into as soon as the Assad regime
2:43
fell. And he gave a speech where he
2:45
said, if it hadn't been for us taking on Hezbollah, there
2:48
wouldn't have been this chain. And Iran, by the way, there
2:50
wouldn't have been this chain reaction that led to the fall of
2:52
the Assad regime, you know, in in a couple of weeks.
2:55
Do you think he's right to take that claim?
2:58
Well, well, first I mean just underlining what what Jonathan
3:00
was talking about, about the speed and and shock that this
3:04
advance was met with. I was on in Beirut just two days
3:10
basically before the Assad regime fell and and flew back
3:14
along with, you know, colleagues from the BBCCNN to my obvious.
3:18
You're covering yourself. Yeah, you're.
3:20
Covering my to my you. Left.
3:22
You left too early. You had good, but what you're
3:24
saying you had good reason to leave it also you thought was
3:27
going to. I mean, the consensus seemed to
3:29
be that at least for they'll, you know, they'll be fighting
3:32
around, if not Hammer, then around Homs, if not Homs, then
3:35
Damascus. But then, you know, on
3:37
reflection, you look back, for example, at events around the
3:40
fall of Kabul in in Afghanistan, and you think what really when,
3:44
when a force has momentum behind it, that things can just go
3:48
very. Why do we always get that wrong?
3:50
Because we always think that these regimes that have been
3:53
tyrannical, that have dug in, that have been there for years,
3:56
you know, surely they'll last a bit longer.
3:58
I mean, I'm in your camp as well.
3:59
I thought, oh, we can wait this one out until the beginning of
4:02
January. And we were wrong.
4:03
Absolutely. Why do they collapse like a
4:05
House of Cards? Well, I mean it, it differs from
4:08
from place to place, doesn't it? But I mean, for the reasons that
4:11
Jonathan was talking about the, the kind of and that you touched
4:14
on, I mean, the blows had been inflicted on the Iranian axis of
4:18
resistance, as they, as they call itself, have really been
4:21
unprecedented. I mean, Hezbollah played such a
4:24
key role in propping up the the Assad regime along with other
4:28
Iranian militias or Iranian backed militias along with the
4:31
Russians. And, and Hezbollah really took
4:35
such a took so many blows from as well in the last few months
4:39
when I was there talking to people in Hezbollah about the
4:42
prospect of them bring over to, to Syria to, to fight when there
4:46
was, you know, the possibility of still fighting back.
4:48
You know, 11 local Hezbollah official kind of shrugged his
4:52
shoulders and said, they've got a government there.
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It it was very clear they no longer saw this as their fight.
4:58
Let's talk about what you know this this new series will look
5:01
like. Because if you look at the map,
5:03
it's one hell of a patchwork of different interests and
5:06
different, you know, rebel groups.
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Do we think that Mister Al Jilani, who now calls himself by
5:11
his original name, will actually be end up being the the the
5:16
leader of Syria by the end of 2025?
5:20
It really is too early to say. I mean, as I said earlier, I
5:24
think I think he's, he's thought this through.
5:27
I think it's very interesting that he hasn't given the
5:30
Russians an ultimatum to get out.
5:33
I think he will that. Well, I think actually he's
5:36
playing quite a clever game because what's happening at the
5:38
moment is various delegations of governments are heading to
5:41
Damascus and engaging with him. And he's.
5:45
He's taking all comers. Yeah.
5:48
And he's. Not a charm offensive.
5:50
Isn't he giving interviews to people?
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He may feel he doesn't know the West anything.
5:53
You know, he, he was formerly with Al Qaeda himself, in spite
5:57
of the West having paid hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to
6:00
Syria over the last 10-12 years and the Russians not doing that.
6:05
But it's interesting that he hasn't kicked the Russians out
6:07
because the Russians pulverised Aleppo in 2015.
6:10
They forced the rebels into a into a corner in northwest
6:14
Syria, and even the Russians are still there.
6:16
Even their base is still there, which which tells you this is a
6:18
man who's really taking his time and probably doesn't want to be
6:26
duty bound to any particular camp.
6:28
And I would include the Turks in that, who are often credited for
6:31
having supported this rebel advance.
6:33
But if you look at him and try and imagine what he would be
6:36
like in two or three months time as a leader.
6:39
So at the moment he's giving interviews, you know, to a
6:41
couple of Western media organisations and basically
6:44
trying to go on the charm offensive.
6:46
He's using his original name, not his non de guerre.
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He's you know, he you know, he's still got the beard, but
6:52
everything else about him is kind of clubable if you like.
6:55
And you know, someone the West, the West, the so-called W can do
6:58
business with. But we know where he comes from.
7:01
And we know that some of the people that have given their,
7:03
you know, their limbs and their and and sacrificed some blood
7:07
over the years will say how in a minute, this secular country,
7:11
Syria, and it was very secular. That's not what we had in mind.
7:14
We don't want people. We don't want men kissing in the
7:16
streets or holding hands. We don't want, you know, women
7:21
behaving in a secular way. So what happens then?
7:24
I mean, I think it's a, it's a really interesting question.
7:26
I mean, at at the moment, as you say, Jelani Ahmed Al Sharar has
7:31
been making really all the right noises talking about respecting
7:34
minorities rights and going and, you know, meeting delegations
7:38
from the Alawites, from the Christians, from the Druze.
7:40
I mean, I saw some incredible pictures shared on social media
7:44
last night of I think Christmas celebrations in Homs with a
7:48
Pitbull pumping sound hip hop soundtrack, you know?
7:52
Christian hip hop. Yeah, I, I suspect, well, maybe
7:56
a believer, but. But So what does he when he sees
7:59
those scenes? What does he?
8:00
Think, Well, I mean, it's a, it's a, it's a question.
8:02
I mean, he's obviously allowing that to happen and people,
8:05
importantly, people feel confident enough in their
8:08
ability to go out and, and, and celebrate like that.
8:12
I was, I was watching his, his recent interview in which with,
8:16
with Jane Byrne from the BBC and, and they talked Jeremy
8:19
asked him about whether alcohol would be banned and he kind of
8:23
basically didn't, didn't want to answer and just said, I don't
8:27
want to talk. These are legal issues that I,
8:28
I, I don't have the right to talk about just yet.
8:31
But I mean, anyone who comes from any kind of political
8:35
Islamist background, whether it's, you know, Muslim
8:37
Brotherhood, let alone al Qaeda, I mean.
8:39
Booze is a no go. Area is a, is a no go area and
8:42
it's, you know, there are many Arab countries that were close
8:45
allies of the West where booze was also illegal.
8:47
But I mean, he will face pressures from both sides.
8:51
He will face pressures from his own ground troops who want to
8:54
see, if not, you know, a, a, a, a kind of a particular who will
9:01
want to see at least some form of more or steer Sharia
9:04
orientated society being created because that is the ideological
9:08
pool from which they have come from.
9:10
And then others, you know, minority groups, the West who
9:15
are pushing for a more secular society.
9:17
So far, he he seems to be making all the right noises in in being
9:21
open to to kind of allowing people to to pursue the kind of
9:24
lifestyle that they. Want, I think.
9:26
I think the West and the World Bank's reconstruction budgets
9:29
will be tied to an inclusive form of government.
9:33
You won't get the money if if you don't.
9:35
And, and of course, mistakes were committed in Afghanistan
9:39
after the fall of the last government with the Taliban in
9:41
place. I mean, we cut, you know, there
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people thought the Taliban would be much, you know, would not be
9:47
as severe as they were the first time they ran Afghanistan.
9:49
They turned out to be even worse.
9:50
Yeah, exactly. I mean, I was there and spent a
9:52
lot of time in the lead up to it and afterwards.
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I mean, and, and, and that was, I mean, it was very instructive
9:57
because I mean, there actually you had even members of the kind
10:01
of Taliban who thought that they were going to be somewhat less
10:06
strict in allowing female. Education pressure was too
10:08
great. Pressure was too great from,
10:09
from certain wings within the group.
10:11
I'm serious, such a different country, such a different
10:13
historical and political context and such a different patchwork
10:17
of of kind of groups living there that I, I, I, I think you
10:21
know, even in if you look at Idlib province where HDS has
10:25
been in power, that there had been reported problems of kind
10:28
of Christians, for example, having properties confiscated in
10:31
the past. Although I saw that apparently
10:33
perhaps that that may have been kind of resolved more recently.
10:36
But you you didn't see those kind of restrictions on kind of
10:39
women's education, for example. I don't think we're ever talking
10:43
about something like that developing.
10:46
But will it be a democracy? Will it be a secular country?
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I don't think that's very much, you know, a question that that
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we can't answer this and. Jonathan is the biggest kind of
10:56
conflict within Syria, the one between, you know, a very strict
11:01
version of Islam and the kind of secular tradition that the
11:04
Assads continued. Or is it between all the
11:07
different rival groups that have been flexing their muscles of
11:10
late? Or is it all that plus Turkey's
11:13
influence, Israel's influence, and of course still perhaps in
11:17
some form, Iran's influence? Well, there isn't a Syrian Army
11:22
as such. I mean, they've taken off their
11:24
uniforms and they've sort of disappeared and the rebels have
11:27
let them disappear and said, you know, we won't come after you
11:30
unless you are in a major commanding position and
11:34
committed to atrocities and so on.
11:36
So in a sense, I mean, the Syrian Army embodied a kind of
11:40
Alawite defence of the realm and that no longer really exists.
11:45
So, so to that extent, there is a bit of a free for all, but I,
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I, I just, I can't emphasise this enough.
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I think if you've lost half a million people, you know, you
11:55
sober up. Yeah, you, you would hope that
11:57
would be enough of a wake up call.
11:59
Look how long it took in Lebanon, you know, decades of
12:02
civil war before that. Finally.
12:04
But if you've lost those people, you also feel you have a, a
12:07
right, you know, an embalmed right to basically state your
12:12
claim on the future of your country.
12:14
But I wonder if there's, you know, is there a danger,
12:17
especially, you know, the Israelis are bombing, you know,
12:20
serious military capacities because they don't want to have
12:22
that fall into the wrong hands as a threat against them?
12:25
Again, are these outside influences that are prodding the
12:28
various factions of Syria in danger of creating something in
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the future that will impact negatively on everyone?
12:35
Yes, they are. And and I think the destruction
12:39
of the Syrian military by the Israelis, they say, well, you
12:45
know, I mean, I think the real reason is probably not to do
12:48
with with these rebels getting hold of those things.
12:50
It's probably more about stopping the Iranians from
12:53
having supply routes to to Hezbollah, which is which is
12:57
their bigger, their bigger worry.
13:00
And one has to question whether the Israeli military presence in
13:04
the buffer zone beyond the Golan Heights, which they've occupied.
13:07
It's going to be permanent or not.
13:08
It's going to be permanent or not, they say not.
13:10
They say this is for our our self defence.
13:13
But they've seen weakness and they've pounced and the Israelis
13:17
have taken advantage of that. OK.
13:18
You mentioned the Israelis. Let's move on.
13:20
Let's swiftly move on to Israel because it's a busy region with
13:22
lots of things to discuss. You know, Netanyahu was in such
13:26
a weak position even until a few months ago.
13:29
I guess the low point was the day that those six hostages
13:32
ended up dead. You know, there were mass
13:34
demonstrations against him. He had the trials looming.
13:38
And now that he's actually appeared in court for on the
13:39
corruption trial, you know, it has coincided with not just, you
13:44
know, the aftermath of the decapitation of Hezbollah.
13:47
Tick in his favour, that the fall of the Assad regime, which
13:51
he takes some responsibility for, very much a tick in his
13:54
favour. Iran cowed, another tick in his
13:56
favour. I bet you that if there were
13:58
elections in Israel tomorrow, he would win.
14:02
Well, I mean, you know, on the one hand you have, you know, the
14:06
IC International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for
14:10
him and for the former defence minister, you have Amnesty
14:16
describing Israel's actions in in Gaza as genocide as well as
14:22
the the ongoing ICJ case around genocide.
14:26
So on the one hand, which obviously Israel denies, on the
14:31
one hand you have Israel increasingly becoming something
14:34
of a global pariah state under Netanyahu.
14:38
But at the same time, from his perspective and from a right
14:42
wing Israeli perspective, he scored, as you say, as you point
14:45
to, you know, formidable military success.
14:49
I mean, for so long that I, the Israelis, had worried that a
14:53
direct confrontation with Iran would mean, you know, an
14:57
immensely destructive war with Hezbollah because Hezbollah was
15:00
is meant to be better armed and equipped than many nation
15:03
states. It turned out that basically
15:06
Hezbollah was a paper tiger and Iran is really something of a
15:10
paper tiger. I mean, throughout the kind of
15:11
last year and however many a couple of months, we've seen
15:15
that really neither Iran or Hezbollah were interested in
15:19
primarily escalating the conflict.
15:20
I mean, I would compare Iran with the Wizard of Oz.
15:22
You know, you pull back the curtain and there's a little old
15:25
man. Just not the threat that they
15:29
wanted to be. And I think Ayatollah Khamenei,
15:31
who's now in his mid 80s, is increasingly looking like a
15:35
dinosaur who's sort of fighting yesterday's wars with his axis
15:38
of resistance that's now been shattered.
15:40
There's internal criticism in Iran.
15:43
You know, where do we spend millions and millions propping
15:46
up the asset regime in Syria? And he's gone in days, you know,
15:49
when we've got our own economic problems at home.
15:52
So the Iranians are in a very bad place, you know.
15:55
They've also pressure internally, right?
15:56
So, I mean, you saw these demonstrations which have
15:58
disappeared because of draconian measures against them.
16:01
But that feeling of real disgust and distrust with the
16:05
government, with the ayatollahs, is still very much there.
16:07
And. And people I think who are kind
16:09
of critical of the regime in Iran, very much looking at
16:12
events in Syria and thinking right here's, you know,
16:14
something that was long thought of as a status quo, all of a
16:18
sudden being upended and, and, and being done so rapidly and,
16:23
and taking, taking heart from that.
16:25
And coming back to Netanyahu, though, I mean, interesting, I
16:27
think within Israel there is that there is now a majority of
16:31
people who want to see the war ended, who want to see a
16:34
ceasefire deal of sorts done for because they want the, the
16:39
hostages back. I think there's a substantial
16:42
portion of the Israeli public who would be OK with the idea of
16:46
going back to war at some stage. You know, but also Gaza's
16:49
future. I mean, you know, Gaza's best in
16:51
1945 in terms of what's left of it.
16:54
I mean, I mean, you look at, I mean, particularly at the
16:57
pictures of, of northern Gaza. I mean, it, it's, there's, it
17:00
seems like there's nothing standing.
17:01
I mean, we're talking about bait Hanoon, bait Lahir Jabalia.
17:05
I mean, it's, it's why, you know, so many people are are
17:09
making allegations of ethnic cleansing and even, you know,
17:11
papers like Arets and, you know, former defensive ministers
17:14
really making serious allegations like, like that.
17:18
But I just wondered whether whether all this if you take it
17:20
all into account and of course, Trump moving into the White
17:23
House on the 20th of January, you know, he's appointed Mike
17:27
Huckabee's ambassador to Israel, someone who doesn't even
17:29
acknowledge the existence of Palestinians and calls the West
17:32
Bank Judea and Samaria. You know, he's got people,
17:35
senior people in the administration who are even more
17:37
pro as well than the previous lot were.
17:40
Is the annexation of the West Bank, which is something that
17:42
Netanyahu has been flirting with for years now, going to happen?
17:46
Is the resettlement of the Gaza Strip, something which the
17:49
settler element of the government wants now, going to
17:51
happen? I think that what you're right
17:55
about what you say. And Netanyahu has described
17:57
Trump as the best American president Israel's ever had.
18:03
But Trump is also capable of standing up to Netanyahu, and I
18:05
think in a way that Biden hasn't.
18:07
Yeah. Trump wants his day in the sun.
18:10
Wasn't he on the South 1? He wants a deal done.
18:12
He wants, he wants, he wants deals all over the place.
18:14
He wants, you know, he wants a deal to end, end Ukraine.
18:17
He, he wants this war in Gaza over with you.
18:21
There are American hostages still missing.
18:23
But could that vanity be a good thing for the Middle East?
18:25
Could Trump's vanity about capturing that moment of
18:28
history, you know, rather like Clinton with Arafat and Rabin,
18:31
and we know how that ended on the South Lawn of the White
18:33
House. Could that actually translate
18:36
into some real, you know, into peaceful currency?
18:39
I don't think so because I, I, I think the, you're right that,
18:42
that the Israeli far right is emboldened by having Netanyahu.
18:47
They, they, they are talking about returning settlements to
18:51
Gaza. You know, they are talking about
18:53
more settlements in, in the West Bank.
18:55
So, you know, UN resolutions being sort of trampled into the
18:59
dust. But what hasn't changed to the
19:01
demographics which the Shipshev fact of the matter is there are
19:05
5 million Palestinians and are you seriously saying that
19:09
they're going to be part of a, a unitary larger Israeli state?
19:14
And I think the problem, I mean what might happen is that Trump
19:17
tries to resurrect his his plan for a Palestinian state, which
19:22
was nurtured by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner in the in the
19:24
first Trump presidency. But the problem with that is is
19:27
essentially a Swiss cheese of sort of Canton with Israeli
19:31
settlements still there. So in a way that what's always
19:36
been true for Netanyahu is that the status quo suits him
19:40
actually quite fine, which is sort of making promises to the
19:43
settlers, but not actually doing it, not committing to a
19:47
Palestinian state, but telling. So the muddling through?
19:50
Muddling through, yeah. I mean, figures in the Israeli
19:53
far right, like the finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, they
19:56
have are openly describing 2025 as the year of annexation of the
20:01
West Bank. But, but I think when they're
20:03
talking about annexation of the West Bank, even they are not at
20:06
the moment talking about all of this annexing the kind of the,
20:10
the, the Palestinian. Majority cities like Janine but
20:14
they're but exactly what they're talking about is annexation of
20:18
the settlement. Which is a formalisation of what
20:20
we have anyway, but it's a formalisation.
20:22
But then another and they would say an encroachment on the idea
20:25
of a, of a unitary state with the Palestinians living in a, in
20:28
a, in a kind of apartheid system as second class citizens.
20:32
The Israelis would deny that. Or, you know, just a kind of
20:35
Swiss cheese, but a but with bigger holes, as it were.
20:38
Yeah, exactly. And it and it I mean the.
20:40
Palestinians won't accept. Which of course.
20:42
Yeah, of course. It's totally unviable and, and,
20:44
but also fundamentally, I mean, if you, if you annex those, if
20:48
you annex the, the settlements you, you're, you are killing off
20:52
really, I mean, what, what already seems to be in, you
20:55
know, dying gas, the idea of A2 state solution.
20:58
So what I find really intriguing and you kind of touched on it
21:00
with Trump, is, you know, if that sort of Trump, you know,
21:03
you know, MBS, Mohammed bin Salman, axis, whatever you want
21:06
to call it, Nexus link handshake can be revived.
21:10
And of course, Jared Kushner was crucial in terms of, you know,
21:14
making the Abraham Accords happen, you know, getting cozy
21:17
with the Saudis and so on at a time, you know, when, when, when
21:20
that was tricky. I just wonder whether the Saudis
21:24
will say, OK, there's a deal to be done with you.
21:27
America giving us security guarantees with us recognising
21:31
Israel, but we absolutely need something viable for the
21:34
Palestinians. And does Trump then say this is
21:38
the bigger prize? You know, I could be, I could
21:40
get the Nobel, you know, if you, if you hold out to Trump, the
21:42
idea of getting the Nobel Peace Prize.
21:44
Yeah. Even better than being on the
21:45
cover of Time. Exactly.
21:46
And because he's done that already, right?
21:47
He's done that. He's done that.
21:48
This is the second time twice now.
21:49
This is the second time now. But if you can say to him, look,
21:52
Donald, this is what you need to do, 4 steps.
21:54
But they include the Saudis going on with the with the
21:56
Saudis play their part in that. But I mean, look, Jonathan, you
22:00
know much more about the Saudi calculations than than I do, so
22:03
I want to hear from that. But I mean, it seems to me that
22:05
really the the Saudis have been, I mean, that's really the offer
22:09
that Biden has been trying to press on the Israelis for for
22:12
but the Israelis. Aren't buying it but.
22:14
The Israelis aren't buying it because Netanyahu comes out and
22:16
says probably I'm the one who's prevented the creation of the
22:19
Palestinian state. You had the Israeli Knesset
22:21
coming out and voting as a majority, including opposition
22:23
figures against the, the and. Of course there'll be people in
22:26
Israel, they'll say if you you create the Israeli state,
22:28
Israel, Palestinian state, after October the 7th, you're
22:30
rewarding Hamas violence. Yeah, I mean, I I think in Saudi
22:35
Arabia you've got King Salman, who's in his late 80s as a as a
22:39
younger man, he was in charge of raising funds for the
22:42
Palestinian cause from wealthy Saudis.
22:45
And his son MBS may care less about the Palestinians, but
22:50
every Arab leader cares about the Palestinians to the extent
22:54
that the Arab world, you know, it's a young population.
22:57
Most Saudis are under the age of 30.
22:59
They're looking at their mobile phones.
23:00
They're seeing what's going on in Gaza.
23:03
And so even if their leaders may not care particularly, they know
23:08
that their people do and that they therefore have to do
23:10
something about it. Plus the fact that Saudi Arabia
23:12
is is custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and therefore has to
23:15
provide direction for the rest of the Islamic world.
23:18
And I think, yes, the Saudis would love to strike a security
23:21
deal with the United States. That's more important to them
23:24
than Israel, frankly. They already exchanged
23:27
technology with Israel, but the price just went up because Gaza
23:31
has been so terrible, such a disaster that that the MBS
23:36
cannot do a deal with the Israelis if they don't make a
23:40
really significant commitment to a Palestinian state, which
23:43
Netanyahu ain't going to do. And if he does, no one's going
23:46
to believe him. I agree.
23:47
With you 100%. Just finally and briefly, we've
23:49
just got a couple of minutes left.
23:51
Iran, are the Ayatollah still going to be in charge of Iran at
23:54
the end of 2025? You first.
23:57
Well, Ayatollah Khamenei now in his mid 80s, really tired
24:01
revolutionary. I mean, you know, this has been
24:03
going on since 1979. They are losing their
24:07
legitimacy. They're losing their popularity.
24:10
They've been embarrassed. They've witnessed the
24:12
assassination of a Hamas leader. They've witnessed the killing of
24:16
the Revolutionary Guard commander in, in, in Damascus.
24:21
I wouldn't want to count them out.
24:22
I mean, they still have oil wealth and this may be the
24:29
moment of of weakness where they might be actually be able to do
24:33
a deal with Donald Trump, which might sound countering to. 20
24:36
seconds. I mean, on, on Iran, I think
24:38
what, what's most likely or the big thing to watch is whether
24:41
they go make a push to, to, to create a nuclear bomb.
24:45
Because if you're if you're an Iranian Ayatollah right now and
24:48
you've seen the way the rest of the access of resistance has
24:50
been dismantled and destroyed, you must be thinking this is the
24:54
only thing that can prop us up. OK, got to leave it there.
24:57
Fascinating stuff. More to discuss, Sakanda Kamani,
25:00
Jonathan Rodman. Thanks to both of you.
25:01
That's it from this edition of The Forecast.
25:03
Until next time, goodbye.