Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Circle vs Ripple🔥$CRCL vs $XRP A.I. Stablecoin Analysis🚀

Transcript

Circle vs Ripple🔥$CRCL vs $XRP A.I. Stablecoin Analysis🚀 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Stablecoins are on the rise today. We're going to be
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: breaking down both Circle and Ripple to take a look
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: at what's going on in this market, because this may
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: lead to something much bigger. So stay tuned. Before we
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: get started, I want to thank our sponsor, and that's EtherFi,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: where you guys can earn cash back as well as
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: doing tokenized stock trades. All of this is available over
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: on Ether.Fi, be smart money. A ton of features built
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: for every asset. You get to spend on this. There's
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: a whole slew of personal and business features. core platforms
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: that you can use, whether you get into making it
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: kind of your own new bank or whether or not
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you want to use this as a business platform or
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: even lux up and get into some of the better
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: yielding platforms that are out there. So check out EtherFi.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is visit it, EtherFi.com. Use
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: our link down below. It's going to get you set
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: up and you guys can get started where you can
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: get away from the banks. Now, I want to go
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: over And start with this tweet right here. This, of course,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: is Vitalik talking about cryptography and securing crypto may have
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of hidden flaws. And the thing he is
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: concerned about right now is that the bots can eventually
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: get in onto this. And this is what we are
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: seeing more and more exploits within crypto. But it also
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: is a potential where crypto can start to address this,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: which I think we're going to see exploits in the
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: traditional markets. And I'll talk about that. That is where
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I think the vector is going to be. In fact,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: this is a good example right here. Now we've got
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: hackers going after everything from fridges, you name it. I
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: think the problem eventually is going to be anything that
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: is connected is going to have a problem that includes
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: bank accounts and things of that nature. So we are
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: dealing with a new era around bots and what that
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: might look like. And that is the problem right now.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I want to go to this particular story here. This
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: is the biggest hack in crypto history that never happened.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: And this was in reference to XRP. And the issue
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: was that AI discovered a vulnerability that let anyone mint
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: infinite tokens on XRP. And here was the kicker that
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: you have to pay attention to was the timeline. This
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: was the incident response timeline that came up on this.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: The initial report back in 2026 in September, and this
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: was during the attack-a-thon event, the bug was confirmed on
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: September 18th. So basically a month later, by October 9th,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: that's when the actual report was published and the public
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: vulnerability disclosure. So 30 days in is how long it
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: took the team to be able to address it, be
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: able to announce this. Those are the kind of things
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I feel like just cannot happen, especially when you're talking
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: about a company like Ripple and especially with what's going
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: on the XRP ledger. Things that look around on this,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: of course, you had 473 mil in XRP hitting the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: NASDAQ today, and that is coming through Evernorth, which is
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: now trading on XRP. And this was huge news. I
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: had Ashish on not too long ago, and this, I think,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: will continue to be An interesting issue because now you've
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: got a very publicly oriented company trading on the public
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: stock exchange that is correlated directly to XRP. And this
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: is where I think things need to pay very close attention.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: One thing that Jack McDonald said right here was that
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: stablecoins are on the fly, and he's talking about bringing
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: together RLUSD on the XRP ledger. This, of course, was
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: linked to Standard Charter's custody capabilities and the LMAX group.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: This was news that just came out. They are now
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: in prime time, not only with what's going on with Evernorth,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: but you also have with Standard Charter going into this.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: All of this is now putting Ripple at a heavy
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: risk appetite, I think, in general, because you're going to
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: have investors coming in and you're also going to have
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: people targeting this. So this is a concern right now.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: The other thing I look at is just some of
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the data. If you look at the XRP ledger, this
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: is an example of TVL. And what's happened is it
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: has absolutely flatlined versus the rest of stablecoin market cap
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: that has continued to climb. And this is the thing.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are concerned that we
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: are not seeing a lot of activity in terms of
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the XRP ledger. Here, of course, is Bitcoin has a
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: similar track of just not a lot of activity on
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the chain. There is Ethereum starting to edge up, obviously,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: from right there back in 2020, explosion, bear market, and
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: then growth again. Then you go into the winner of
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: what I think will be this bull run is going
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: to be Solana, especially as it's tied to to anything
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: that is stablecoin oriented, which of course is USDC as
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the leader there, absolutely just been growing since pretty much
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: December of 23. One thing that did happen is when
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: you look at RLUSD and where its performance has been,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: right here it looked as though it was a possibility.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: This was back in August where Ethereum actually went under
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: in terms of XRP, RLUSD primarily. And that is the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: point I'm getting at because right after that, we've got
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: RLUSD flying on Ethereum. And why is that? Why are
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: we starting to see this kind of exposure right now
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: where RLUSD is being used mostly there? So let's look
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: at this because I think there are some opportunities here
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: for Ripple. I think there's some opportunities for anybody really
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: out there if you're operating in chain. If you go
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: in and look at this, people are willing to actually
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: go to other chains if there's one key, and that
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: is paying yields on this. And you can kind of
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: see it right here with Robinhood exploding, especially on USDG.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: And the reason was is Robinhood exposed out their USDG
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: rewards and yield, which is now 7%. Those are the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: kind of things that holders will do. And I think
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: we're going to see more and more of this very competitively,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: but it may center around circle. Now I want to
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: go over to a clip real quick, and this will
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: get into Monica Long talking about that this may have
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: not been that big a deal. Take a look.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: I would say to the people saying there's nothing going
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: on in XRP Ledger, First Ledger, Doppler Finance, Zamen, Flare,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Braza Bank, Just Token, I can keep going, Aviva Investors, DVS.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: And if you look at the RWA charts, it's considered
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: the number four chain for RWAs. So the proof is
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: in the pudding.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of names on there, and I would agree.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of names on there. The problem
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: is we're not seeing the activity on that, and that's
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: the issue I think that is facing users today. If
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: you go to the RWA league table, it's not the
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: number four unless this is at a different time, but
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: right now, Stellar is holding the number four slot right
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: behind Solana. And XRP Ledger is holding the number 10 slot.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So a small asset class comparison to what the overall
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: with Ethereum is. So RWA I don't think is going
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: to be the answer here for XRP Ledger if something
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: major does not change. And I think this is all
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: going to boil down to yields and also developer activity
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: that eventually is going to play out on this. Now
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I want to go over to the circle chart and
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: show you something here because this was pretty much the
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: bottom right here after that earnings. We got the earnings bump. Then,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: of course, Circle exploded right up there to 100 bucks.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: It slid back down to around 83. And this may
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: be an opportunity when you start to look at the
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Circle chart. And I'll show you guys something long term
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: here and what that might be. One of the reasons,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: of course, is what's happening with ARK. Now, ARK has
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: launched also. an AI studio, this is going to be
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: interesting because it will start to launch a lot of
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: different tools that will be available. So let's compare Circle
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: and what's happening with Ripple right now. Because Ripple, I
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: would agree that they're building on the TradFi rail system.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: That is something that is definitely going to be happening.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Circle is doing the same thing. The one thing that
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Circle is doing, though, is they are starting to enter
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the new economy. And that is building anything on chain
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: and getting ready for a Gentic. I think this is
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: the step that we are going to see more and
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: more companies taking. And it's kind of interesting because remember Circle,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the first public traded company that eventually is going to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: be looking at launching a token. Imagine how this might
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: work because you could look at Ripple and you'd have
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: to flip the process because that hasn't happened yet. Part
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: of that valuation right now is still held in XRP.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: So think about that and then look at what Circle's
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: future could look like. Here is a wait list project
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: right now. This is building agents for all sorts of
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: private workflows for you and me. And the thing that
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: is going to happen, I hope this actually launches. And
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: when it does, it'll be interesting. I think this is
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: what is the future of where we're going to see agents.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: And that is just going out, building small micro apps,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: getting the best yield for me, doing my bill pay.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: handling things like my tax advisory. These are the kind
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: of things I think this is going to shift the
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: whole idea of how software is used, how it's built.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: That's a bigger question. It's a bigger topic we probably
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: should cover on another video, but it gets into where
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Circle is heading, and that is the future overall. Take
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a look at ARK. That only validates it right there.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, this thing has absolutely skyrocketed up to almost
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: a half a billion versus what we have seen with
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: XRP Ledger and Of course, RLUSD. So to me, this
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: is the only play, I think, when you look at
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: stable coins right now. And it's not just that. Let's
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: take a look at some of the validator cohort that
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: they're courting right here. You got BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy in
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: their standard charter. Sumito, Visa, all of these playing into
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: the hand of where Jeremy Allaire is pushing. All right,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: so I want to show you a clip here because
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: this was Steve Kurz. He was on our show not
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: too long ago. And we were asking about what was
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: going on in Jeremy's presentation and how Circle was addressing
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: the market. And even Galaxy Digital was concerned that there
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: was going to be pressure from all these different places.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: And in retrospect, what we're seeing is they're actually using
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: ARK now as part of their strategy. So watch this clip.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: Visa, MasterCard, Stripe, and Coinbase are reportedly partnering on a
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: new stablecoin platform. Don't believe everything you read in the news.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: The track record of consortium coins, none of them have worked.
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: And any distribution that they've gotten, they've had to pay subsidies.
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: So these are actually money-losing products for those companies that
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: are subscale. And you look at the data, all these
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: other stablecoins and all of their transaction volume rounded to zero.
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: And don't believe everything you read in the news.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure about the don't believe what you hear.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: I'm sure there are a lot of consortium conversations that
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: are happening.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: All right. So that was Steve and I going at
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: it in reference to that because I was kind of
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: defending against Circle. And of course, if you look at
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Visa's own chain analytics, you can kind of see right
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: there the winner is clear. It's USDC. And not by
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: a little. It's by a long shot. Let me kind
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: of zoom in on that for you guys so you
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: can see these numbers. That's the numbers you're talking about,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: $ 41 billion in USDC versus USDG. This is in the
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: lending protocol side, which I think is going to be
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the greater thing to track here, all the way down
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: to PYUSD at only $ 421 million. And when you look
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: at even USDG, I mean, you can kind of see, guys,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: this is not even a horse race right now with
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: what's happening with Circle. So the opportunity is pretty big.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's do something here. Let's do a
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: comparison over on market cap of. Let's compare Circle. and XRP.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: If you look at the token versus where Circle is
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: right now, market cap, and this is now at about
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: a 3.8x performance. Let's compare that at the all-time high.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Changes things dramatically. Now you're talking about a 10x performance
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: in just the performance of where Circle is and would
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: be if it continues to move in the direction that
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: we're seeing it, which is playing into almost every major
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: market out there and really, I think, the future, which
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: is going to be agentic commerce and where that plays in.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's take a look at the Q1
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: 2025 XRP markets report. And this is an interesting day
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: because something happened here. And what happened was this right here.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Ripple's transparency has been used against the company, most notably
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: by the former SEC leadership. But that's gone, guys. That's
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: out of the way. And then after careful consideration, Ripple
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: made the decision to sunset the report in its current
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: form starting in Q2 25. This is a concern when
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: you have people that are sunsetting these transparency reports which
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I think Ripple should bring these back. If you bring
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: these back then it gives the holders an understanding of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: where this company is heading. More importantly the assets that
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: it holds because those are very very closely tied to
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the performance of XRP the token. So let's go take
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: a look at Ripple's pre-IPO valuation and their funding rounds.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: And remember, they did a recent raise. And normally when
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: you get these raises where the valuation is, remember, a
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: company can set their valuation on what they ever want.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: It's the market that sets the price. And what has
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: happened is that when these raises occurred, we actually saw
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: a deduction in the XRP price. So the market spoke
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: and says, no, it's not worth that. And remember- that
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: this is also a situation where Ripple is continuously selling
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: tokens into these kinds of things. So at some point,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: this is going to change in terms of the market,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: or they've got to use this money to be able
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: to drive the XRP price in some way. So be
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: thinking about that. So let's go over, because this is
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the thing that I think a lot of the market
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: is not completely getting. This is an example of the
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: worst time to sell Circle is, I think, one of
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the worst trades that we've seen just yet. And the
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: reason why is even more astonishing. Take a look.
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: My first stock sale in a very long period of
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: time has gone out. Circle stock did take a small
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: haircut on this. So sold around 61, cost basis around
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: the 70-ish number. Oh well. The Federal Reserve's FedNow system
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: has the real potential of destroying the need for instantaneous
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: 24-7 transactions from stable coins. FedNow cuts it out. instantaneous
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: peer to peer payments. And I'm not trying to shill
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: for the Fed. You know, it's not like.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: All right. So let's go compare here because this is
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Fed now versus USDC. You're talking about U.S. versus global.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: The market is much bigger. We're also talking about 24
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: seven anywhere, any time cost is fractional. If that finality
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: is immediate, And of course, you only need a wallet
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: for USDC. This is by far the winner and will
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: be the winner. FedNow is not even going to be
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: a close 100th compared to where USDC and Circle is
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: going to be heading. And when you look at it
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: right here, just in terms of the chart, this was
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: poor meet Kevin. I'm sorry, meet Kevin, but that was
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a bad time for me moving there. I mean, you're
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: up 40% and that's after the dip. If you were
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to take it and sell it out at the right time,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: you would have been up almost 70% on that high
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: trading at about $ 100 for Circle. So I think, though,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: that this is still a trade. And it's one that
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: we're going to be watching very closely. That's where Circle
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: has been right there at the top at about $ 300.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: And that was before adoption, regulation. alignment, and now RWA
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: and what we will see, I think, for the future,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: which is agentic commerce. And of course, that is all
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: going to be on USDC, which of course is riding
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: on Ethereum. And that is why, guys, those are the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: two biggest plays out there. Just to go back to
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: that FedNow comparison right there, I was saying 13 seconds
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: on Solana. This, of course, was wrong. This is the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: chart that we're looking at right now on speed when
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: it comes to transaction. And now what we're talking about
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: is literally 150 milliseconds. That's right, 150 milliseconds finality. Not
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: live yet, but that's the kind of thing we are
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: going to see. Right now it's setting on the first
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: full epoch that averaged 218 milliseconds, a far cry from
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: 13 seconds. And it's only going to get faster. and
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Solana being one of the major chains, of course, trading,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: and USDC is the stable coin for Solana. All this
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: makes sense because it's looking at the future of where
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: digital transactions are going to occur. And then it's going
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: to look at all the products and projects and, I think,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: innovations that are going to be built on these kind
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: of chains. And I think AI is just going to
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: be the beginning of it. Agentech is going to explode it.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: And that is the future of where a lot of
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: this is going. So stay tuned on this. If you
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: The link is in the description.