Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / 2024 Crop Tour Day 5

Transcript

2024 Crop Tour Day 5 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Today is a recap for day five for the crop tour here before our final review later this afternoon.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: I've got Dylan with us here.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: How's it going, Dylan?
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, not too bad.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: How about yourself, Mike?
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Good.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's good to be done here.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: We got our day five uh recap.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: We drove from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, kind of up towards uh Waterloo over to uh kind of the central northern part of Iowa and then straight over uh towards like Sioux Center, places like that.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: So uh kind of went through the heart of uh some of the best crop in the eastern st part of the state, and then we uh went through some troublesome areas, uh probably the most troublesome areas we saw on our crop tour, at least for the southern tour.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: What do you say?
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I would agree with that.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: We definitely saw a little more variability as we made our route today.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: So uh when we look at the route when we first started off, we had really good crop conditions in the eastern corn belt by like Cedar Rapids.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: They'll probably have near record crops or a record crop, and then as we moved north, what did you see at our our next stop there at uh La Porte City?
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it was looked pretty good there.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um a lot of moisture early on kind of ran into some uh nitrogen issues in there and having to reapply a couple times more than they thought.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: But the crop looked really, really good, I think, especially compared to the last couple years, that area can dry out a little bit.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh that was a pretty good crop, anyways.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: And then we started to move west, and our my goal here was to try to make a uh a map almost of to say when's a first field that we're gonna see that's subpar in a big enough way to notice from the road.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so that was really important.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: I thought that was a cool observation with it to see when that first field was gonna kick in, and it was Wesley, Iowa.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: That was when we started seeing excess signs of moisture for the first time, and then as we started to move more west, you know, Algona, the yield samples we took there was close to the heart of the problem, but not quite yet.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then Emmitsburg to like Spencer was by far the worst stretch of the whole crop tour.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: That was the stretch that was way, way, way too wet that we all heard the stories from at least, and then by the time you got back to about Sioux Center, uh, most of the water excess problems had been lifted.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: So if you draw a severity map from Wesley, it starts to Emmitsburg, Spencer is worst, and then by Sioux Center it's about better or normal again.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of the severity map that we had.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: And if you take, you know, even 30 miles south of Algona, it was fine.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: If you go north of Algona a little ways towards Okeboji, there's some pretty rough stuff there too.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: So it that's kind of the the the area, the circle that I would have drawn that uh that problem in, which is really significant, because that really started, you know, on the east side of Kasuth, which that is normally the largest corn production county in in Iowa, or up there at least, because of the the bigger size of the county.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: But it also that's a major corn, you look at the corn production map, that's really where the where that starts.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: So for us to have a problem in those like top handful of corn production counties in Iowa, and I mean the yield samples from that from the one piece we were going at was it averaged 219 the last three years for that piece.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And uh we took good, we took really bad samples, and we took really excellent, the best samples we could from that field.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: And uh the most we were getting out of it was like 181 from the samples we even took, let alone the spots that were drowned out.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: So from that area, you know, we're 50 off pretty easily on that, which the farmer was pretty much expecting from that piece, which was one of their better pieces.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: So for us to have that big of a problem in the top handful of our corn, the highest corn production counties in Iowa, I wasn't able to give Iowa a record, even though that the rest of the state was by far a record.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: So uh granite, I say this and we put Iowa at what, 203?
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: So like two bushels off record, so it was pretty close, I guess, close enough uh for what we would think.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: So that was kind of our recap of Iowa at least.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Rest of the state, everything looked excellent from the southwest part of the state to the eastern side of the state.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the northeastern side, maybe a little bit of nitrogen problems there because of the excess moisture, but good problem to have.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: And then as we went west, I gave the severity outlook there of Iowa, but nonetheless, still a really good crop in Iowa.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Uh too much rain generally makes grain still for the majority of the United States and uh for the state of Iowa.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: We saw that even with some pretty extreme stuff in the north anyway.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: So thank you for joining me on the day five recap.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, Dylan, any final thoughts?
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: No, I think you hit the point pretty hard.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: Uh a lot of variability there with the water and some drowned out spots, and yeah, hit a pretty good on the point.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: So, pretty much from day one leaving, that was the first time we pretty much saw a Batfield.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that was the first.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's incredible.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, probably the only time that's happened on my nine years of the crop tour.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: So thank you, Dylan.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you, Mike.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us at professional eggmarketing.com.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing, that's released every Friday.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: See you next time.