Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s John Coyne explains how the NT will benefit from agreements with the US following AUSMIN talks

Transcript

Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s John Coyne explains how the NT will benefit from agreements with the US following AUSMIN talks · 360 with Katie Woolf

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Now, yesterday you may have heard the Foreign Minister Penny
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Wong as well as Defense Minister Richard Marles. They met
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln and also
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: the Secretary of Defense Austin Lloyd for a crucial meeting
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: on the Two Nations alliance and security. I know that
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: there was quite a bit of discussion in relation to
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: well the Pacific, indeed China's presence and the Center. They
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: were certainly center parts of those discussions, as well as
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: the nuclear submarines. But I do understand that they also
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: spoke about increased marine rotation. Joining us on the line
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  Speaker 1: right now is John Coyne here is the head of
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  Speaker 1: Northern Australia Strategic Policy Center at the Australian Strategic Policy Center.
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  Speaker 2: I should say good morning to you John.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning Gattie. We don't make it easy with titles
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: doing no and I read.
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  Speaker 2: It out back to front there. Good to have you
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  Speaker 2: on the show mate. Are you in the Northern Territory
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  Speaker 2: at the moment?
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  Speaker 3: Look, I am. I'm up for my last visit for
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: the year, experiencing the heat. So all the Territorians will
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: be laughing as that Southern guy comes up here again
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  Speaker 3: suffering from the heat and humidity.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, it is warm, there is no doubt about that, John,
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  Speaker 1: It's been very hot.
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  Speaker 2: Hey young. What's been on the agenda for you while
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  Speaker 2: you've been here though?
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  Speaker 3: Look, a lot of discussions with industry, a lot of
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  Speaker 3: discussions about what the Defense Strategic Review means for Northern
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  Speaker 3: Australia large, what it might mean to industry, and really
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  Speaker 3: discussions about how better you know, you can take a
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  Speaker 3: proactive or the Territorians and North Australian can take a
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  Speaker 3: proactive role in shaping that.
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  Speaker 1: Now, what did you make of the meeting that was
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  Speaker 1: held yesterday or earlier in the week and the comments
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  Speaker 1: from both Australian polies and also the US Defense Secretary
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  Speaker 1: and also US well, both Secretary of Defense, i should say,
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  Speaker 1: and Secretary.
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  Speaker 2: Of State for the US. What did you make of
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  Speaker 2: those meetings?
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  Speaker 3: Look, you know, Katie, there OSMON is one of those
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  Speaker 3: really really important meetings in terms of the bilateral relationship.
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  Speaker 3: So it happens every twelve months in the past, you know,
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  Speaker 3: Australia has been the little partner in all of this.
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  Speaker 3: So in answering that question, I've got two things. Where
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  Speaker 3: the first thing reaction is this is that it really
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  Speaker 3: reinforced that Australia is no longer the little partner in
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  Speaker 3: that relationship, mainly because we have the most important strategic
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  Speaker 3: geography in the Indo Pacific, you know, in terms of
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  Speaker 3: it's the Goldilock Spot, not too close to the South
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  Speaker 3: Johina Cee, but close enough so it's a fantastic place
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  Speaker 3: that for the military to train. So you know, the
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  Speaker 3: announcements really we're about expanding the rotational forces.
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  Speaker 1: Now.
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  Speaker 3: Twenty four hours beforehand, Richard Marles, the Defense Minister of
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  Speaker 3: Deputy PM, made a very clear staty curn around. He said,
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  Speaker 3: you know there's no to be no US Navy nuclear
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  Speaker 3: submarine bases in Australia. But if we look to this announcement,
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  Speaker 3: so what we're going to see is not just the
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  Speaker 3: US Marines coming in. He's also talking about more rotations
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  Speaker 3: of US Army, more rotations of US Navy bombers and
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  Speaker 3: fighter aircraft visiting more frequently. So there are good things
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  Speaker 3: because they show the health of our partnership with the
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  Speaker 3: US and our alliance on the other side of it.
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  Speaker 3: And for territorium, I think what that means is is
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  Speaker 3: more money coming into the economy, more opportunity in terms
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  Speaker 3: of construction. So I see it as a really positive
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  Speaker 3: economic out look and you know we have to get
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  Speaker 3: the details, but a really positive economic outlook for the
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  Speaker 3: Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's something that you and I have spoken
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  Speaker 1: about before, particularly our geography, and you know, we speak
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  Speaker 1: about Australia and our partnership with the US, but then
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  Speaker 1: when you talk about the Northern Territory, we are incredibly
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  Speaker 1: an incredibly strategic location, aren't.
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  Speaker 3: We look absolutely, But let's not all you know, sometimes
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  Speaker 3: and I talk, we've about these things and we think
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  Speaker 3: just in terms of you know, bombs, bases and things
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  Speaker 3: that go bang and a night, but really is also
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  Speaker 3: the other partners One of the things I've been talking
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  Speaker 3: to people a lot Northern Australia. So you know, I
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  Speaker 3: look at it. There's North Australia, you know, both Northern
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  Speaker 3: w A and Northern Queensland. Since federation, we sort of
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  Speaker 3: think about it as you know, the extent of Australian territory,
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  Speaker 3: you know, that bit that we then defend from. In reality,
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  Speaker 3: it's our connection point to the region. So you know,
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  Speaker 3: if you're living in cans you know that the world's
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  Speaker 3: largest expatriate population of PAF New Guinea lives in Cans. Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: you know, there's thousands of years of trade between First
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  Speaker 3: Nations people and people in Indonesia, East team Or and
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  Speaker 3: part of New Guinea. So it's it's important because it's
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  Speaker 3: also our connection to the world, to the region.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it certainly is. And so then what do you think.
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  Speaker 1: You know, obviously the discussions that were held between Australia
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  Speaker 1: and the US throughout you know, earlier in the week,
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  Speaker 1: there was a lot of discussion about like you've touched
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  Speaker 1: on about those submarines and also that discussion about the
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  Speaker 1: marine rotation. Do you think it's going to mean for
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  Speaker 1: us here in the territory that we'll see more marine activity.
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  Speaker 3: Look, I think you'll see more US military activity. Whether
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  Speaker 3: it's whether it's more marines or whether it's marines and army.
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  Speaker 3: I think that remains to be seen. But you know,
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  Speaker 3: for the average person in Darwin, you know, I would
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  Speaker 3: say to you, you know, yes, you're going to expect
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  Speaker 3: to see more military US military people coming and visiting,
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  Speaker 3: enjoying recreationally the region. We're going to see more ship
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  Speaker 3: visits and more planes flying in and that's going to
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  Speaker 3: drive a lot of economic growth. You know, they're going
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  Speaker 3: to want to eat, spend money, drink a beer, all
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  Speaker 3: of those sorts of things. So I think, you know, yes,
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  Speaker 3: you're going to see more I'm not sure if there's
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  Speaker 3: going to be marines, but certainly you know we're also
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  Speaker 3: going to see a strengthening of big visiting facilities here.
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  Speaker 3: So what by that. We're going to see some construction,
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  Speaker 3: no doubt where you know, on air fields and bases
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  Speaker 3: to make them more protected.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Well, on the strengthening of facilities, I guess you know,
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  Speaker 1: it does mean like you've touched on more money coming
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  Speaker 1: into the territory and at this point, you know we
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  Speaker 1: do need some investment.
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  Speaker 3: Look, you know, it's sort of stretching off that point.
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  Speaker 3: Though I've been running a Northern Australian Policy Center for
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  Speaker 3: about four and a half years. There's a real buy
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  Speaker 3: again around Northern Australian policy. It extends beyond just the military,
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  Speaker 3: and I think the discussions are really positive.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 3: You know, you can be cynical, so you know, you know,
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  Speaker 3: part academic, part practitioner. You can say, well, look in
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  Speaker 3: one hundred years in Federation. You know, it seems people
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  Speaker 3: in the South every ten or twenty years discover the North,
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  Speaker 3: make a whole heave of bold statements and then you
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  Speaker 3: know there's a failure to deliver on policy. See. But
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  Speaker 3: there's certainly some very positive signs across a range of issues,
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  Speaker 3: so you know, everything from rare earth and critical minerals
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  Speaker 3: through too. You know, there some exciting draft projects getting
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  Speaker 3: ready around you know, long foods, long shelf foods, staples.
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  Speaker 3: You know, I think there's a lot of exciting news
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  Speaker 3: and certainly you know the engagement on Northern Australian issues
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  Speaker 3: has changed over the last four years.
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  Speaker 1: Well that is good to hear and I think that
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  Speaker 1: that's what we always hope for here in the Northern
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  Speaker 1: Territory and in Northern Australia.
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  Speaker 2: Like we know we're.
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  Speaker 1: Important not just when you talk about you know, the
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  Speaker 1: defense side of things or geographically, but also when you
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  Speaker 1: talk about food security for the rest of Australia and
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  Speaker 1: and you know, our exports.
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  Speaker 3: Look absolutely you know, I mean that's sort of in
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  Speaker 3: the work that I do, I really try to highlight that.
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  Speaker 3: You know, we're a food protein basket for the region.
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  Speaker 3: You know, our mango go every where, you know, so
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  Speaker 3: it is a ursioning economy. Okay, Yes, there's there's challenges
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  Speaker 3: in how in a small economy, how you can maintain
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  Speaker 3: that growth at a steady pace and to avoid those
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  Speaker 3: you know, the economists boom and bust cycles, and you
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  Speaker 3: know territorians have seen them, those boom and bus cycles,
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  Speaker 3: so they understand that. So you know, there's some there's
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  Speaker 3: a lot of work to be done in terms of
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  Speaker 3: how do we how do we maintain that level of
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  Speaker 3: growth at a at a reasonable level.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, and I suppose at the moment too, you know,
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  Speaker 1: with with all the different expenses, with the cost of
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  Speaker 1: fuel and that kind of thing, it can be a
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  Speaker 1: bit more difficult, you know, in addition to all the
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  Speaker 1: usual troubles that you'd have, all the usual speed bumps
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  Speaker 1: you might have, I suppose, John.
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  Speaker 2: Well that's it.
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  Speaker 3: But you know, look, I've wrote about this a little
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  Speaker 3: while ago. So you know that in Sydney they have
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  Speaker 3: the Western Conics Rode. So when they were building it,
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  Speaker 3: you know, it's a big tunnel. When they were building it,
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  Speaker 3: they you know, they had to build and bring heavy
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  Speaker 3: machinery right through some of the worst traffic in at
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  Speaker 3: and they went and built that road, but no one
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  Speaker 3: turned around and said, oh, you know, it's really too
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  Speaker 3: difficult to build the road, too expensive to build that
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  Speaker 3: tunnel because you know, we've got to move a plant
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  Speaker 3: machinery at a certain times. Similarly, you know there's a
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  Speaker 3: road that's being finished in a tunnel that's going to
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  Speaker 3: be finished in Adelaide, and no one sort of sits
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  Speaker 3: there and goes in terms of construction, very very difficult.
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  Speaker 3: So you know, in the soil et cetera, difficult to
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  Speaker 3: build that tunnel, but no one says, look, it's really
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  Speaker 3: really difficult to build a tunnel in South Australia. So
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  Speaker 3: what we're going to do is we're going to move
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  Speaker 3: it and build it in Melbourne instead. And I think
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  Speaker 3: these are sorts of economic reality. So if you want
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  Speaker 3: economic growth in Northern Australia, you know my argument here
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  Speaker 3: is economically and socially prosperous Northern Australia is a secure Australia.
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  Speaker 3: So if that's what you want, some things do cost more,
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  Speaker 3: some things take longer. You know, it is hotter, you know,
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  Speaker 3: those sorts of things of other realities, But you don't
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  Speaker 3: turn around, look at the realities and go, well, Okay,
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  Speaker 3: it's too hard, we'll do it elsewhere.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, very true, doctor point of view. Had to look
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  Speaker 1: into our shiplift that we're building in the Northern Territory.
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  Speaker 3: Look, do you know what I was reading? You ask
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  Speaker 3: him that question? Look, yes, I do. The ship lift
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  Speaker 3: is an important investment in terms of developing Darlin Harbor
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  Speaker 3: and Darwin Port. I will, too, so very carefully not
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  Speaker 3: make comments on voluntary receivership for administration or anything else
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  Speaker 3: like that, because I don't think the facts are all
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  Speaker 3: very clear. Yeah, you know there is going to be that.
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  Speaker 3: It's going to be a policy challenge and the Northern
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  Speaker 3: Territory government going to have to go and unpicked that
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  Speaker 3: policy challenge over the coming days, weeks, and no doubt months.
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  Speaker 3: But if your question is is that ship lift important
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  Speaker 3: to Australia, Is it important to the economy, is it
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  Speaker 3: important to our geostrategic defense policy, et cetera? Absolutely well,
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  Speaker 3: Doctor John Coyn.
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  Speaker 1: I always enjoy our conversations. Thank you very much for
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: coming on the show this morning. And I hope you're
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: not you're not too warm while you're in the Northern Territory.
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: Thanks Katie, I am retreating this season in all this afternoon,
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: back to the cold will the South with fond memories
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: and happy to say goodbye the heat from the world.
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  Speaker 2: So thank you very much, good to have you on
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  Speaker 2: the show. Thanks for your time this morning.