Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/9/26: Oil Apocalypse, New Ayatollah Chosen, Jeff Sachs Dire Warning, Lindsey Graham Coached Bibi On Convincing Trump

Transcript

3/9/26: Oil Apocalypse, New Ayatollah Chosen, Jeff Sachs Dire Warning, Lindsey Graham Coached Bibi On Convincing Trump · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent
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  Speaker 3: dot Com. Turning down to oil, we're going to be
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: joining in the second by Rory Johnson. He's an excellent
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: oil analyst.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: But we do have to show you.
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: Some absolutely apocalyptic images coming out of Tehran. Let's go
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: to put these up here on the screen so we
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: can show all of you. The first here is some
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: of the destruction. This is an Iranian reporter standing in
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: front of an oil facility in the middle of Tehran,
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: one of the largest facilities which supplies the entire city.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: These are reporting is really is air strikes, which not
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: only struck the facility, but these black clouds started coming
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: all the way up into the sky and authorities there
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: in Tehran are now reporting risks of acid rain, black clouds,
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: and smoke across the entire city. So you can see
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: that the entire thing was on fire. There were storm
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: drains from which oil was actually flowing into civilian infrastructure
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: that remained on fire. I mean literally out of the
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: scene of a movie. We also have this video from
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: a CNN reporter who is on the ground in Tehran
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: actually showing the raining oil on top of everything in
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: the surrounding vicinity.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: I want to show you something else, because it's also raining,
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: but you can see that the rain, the rain water
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: is actually black, also saturated, it appears with oil. And
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: then if we look over there, you can see that
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: the water that's running down here also is black. So
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: that's what's coming down this morning, this sort of oil
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: filled brain that we have right now on the Iranian capital.
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: After the strikes their place.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Oil filled rain, and of course that was immediately responded
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: to by the Iranians who are targeting a lot of
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: oil facilities across the region. So to get into all
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: of that, where the price of oil will go and
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: where the markets stand as of right now. We're going
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: to welcome Roy Johnston. He is an independent oil analyst
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: and he's going to join the show. Now joining us now,
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: as I said, is Roy Johnston. He is the founder
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: of commoditycontext dot com and he's a longtime friend of
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: the show.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Rory, thanks for joining us.
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: Thanks for having me.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, not under the best circumstances.
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: Unfortunately, been following your work quite a bit independent oil
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: analysts and has really forecasted things with a very honest view.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: And so we want to start with Donald Trump's first truth,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: social and reaction to crude oil features going over one
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars per barrel.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Let's put it up here on the screen.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: He says, short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: is a very small price to pay.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Only fools would think differently.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: So, Rory, are you amongst those fools who think differently
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: here about the price of oil?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: And where do you see things right now?
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: I'm definitely among the fools on that one.
• 3:09
  Speaker 6: I think, as I was saying at the time when
• 3:12
  Speaker 6: the President you know, truths that.
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: It's kind of the worst thing he could say in
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: the current moment.
• 3:18
  Speaker 6: I think the important thing to keep in mind here
• 3:20
  Speaker 6: is that the main thing the oil market is attempting
• 3:23
  Speaker 6: to handicap is the duration of this disruption through the
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: straight ofform moves and the broader attacks against infrastructure in
• 3:30
  Speaker 6: the region.
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: So when the.
• 3:31
  Speaker 6: President says, you know, don't worry, it's a short term thing, no, biggie.
• 3:36
  Speaker 6: I think the market's concern is that he actually believes that,
• 3:39
  Speaker 6: because if he actually believes that, then this could go
• 3:42
  Speaker 6: on much longer than anyone had feared. I mean, going
• 3:45
  Speaker 6: into this, I did not think there was any chance.
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: I had never thought I would see this in my career.
• 3:51
  Speaker 6: This is the largest scale disruption of energy systems at
• 3:56
  Speaker 6: least since the nineteen seventies, and potentially, if this goes
• 3:59
  Speaker 6: on much longer, potentially the longest in history, you know,
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: the largest in history. So if this continues going on
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: and the President's statements make it seem like this is
• 4:08
  Speaker 6: all under control, this is absolutely not under control.
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: This is massive and prices.
• 4:12
  Speaker 6: Are exploding, and the longer this goes on, the worse
• 4:15
  Speaker 6: it's going to get.
• 4:16
  Speaker 7: How bad could it get.
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: I mean, it's one of those it's one of those
• 4:21
  Speaker 6: shocks where the supply loss is so large that what
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: you need to do is you need to incentivize demand
• 4:26
  Speaker 6: destruction across a whole variety of sectors air travel, freight,
• 4:31
  Speaker 6: consumer consumption, everything needs to go. And what you know,
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: when we think about the way this would manifest, basically
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: we have two sides of this. Either the prices to
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: rise and the incentives and shipping needs to rise to
• 4:43
  Speaker 6: such a level that people begin to risk making the
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: transit through the straight from OS or the war ends and.
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: The straight reopens.
• 4:50
  Speaker 6: Otherwise, if we still have this twenty million barrel a
• 4:53
  Speaker 6: day loss of supply from the goal system, and just
• 4:55
  Speaker 6: to put that in perspective, that is roughly the exact
• 4:58
  Speaker 6: same size of disruption, the size of demand loss that
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: that we kind of saw at the peak of COVID
• 5:05
  Speaker 6: demand destruction in March and April of twenty twenty. During
• 5:08
  Speaker 6: that period, we were all locked in, you know, planes
• 5:11
  Speaker 6: were not in the air. So what we're talking about
• 5:13
  Speaker 6: is is kind of what price would be needed to
• 5:15
  Speaker 6: replicate the conditions of the bottom of COVID. That's the
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: kind of scary part about this and the way this
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: would play out is you know, basically, we in advanced,
• 5:24
  Speaker 6: kind of wealthy countries probably are just going to pay
• 5:27
  Speaker 6: much much higher prices than pump because those prices will
• 5:29
  Speaker 6: be needed to incentivize those supplies of those fuels remaining
• 5:33
  Speaker 6: in our economies. The rest of you know, the developing
• 5:36
  Speaker 6: world where they can't afford these imports, this is going
• 5:39
  Speaker 6: to manifest is outright shortages for them. So that's this
• 5:41
  Speaker 6: way you're already seeing gas lines or seeing everything else.
• 5:44
  Speaker 6: This is something that we already at this stage, we've
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: already had such a massive kind of air bubble in
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: the system of the loss of disruption and experts already
• 5:52
  Speaker 6: this is already a kind of a historic crisis. If
• 5:56
  Speaker 6: this goes on longer, there's no telling how high we
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: could go. Two hundred dollars a barrel. It's like, it's
• 6:00
  Speaker 6: very very easy to just say numbers that are higher,
• 6:02
  Speaker 6: because there is no number high enough to incentivize the
• 6:05
  Speaker 6: level of destruction that we would need to see.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: That's crazy. Let's put C six up on the screen.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: This was your analysis, you say, as someone who routinely
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: mocks perma bullish clickbait oil forecast. I want to be
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: exceptionally clear, crude will go to two hundred dollars per
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: barrel en route higher unless traffic through the straight resumes.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Not clickbait, rather brutal physics and necessary economic incentive. So
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: to put it into perspective, you know, everybody not everybody's
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: a barrel expert.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: What does that mean in terms of what does that
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: mean in terms of gas prices at the pump? Last
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: time we talked Russia Ukraine, you got you know, potentially
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: six dollars a gallon.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: What does that look like two hundred dollars a barrel.
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so even as we stand right now today, the
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: price of our Bob gasoline kind of futures are implying
• 6:50
  Speaker 6: that we've already jumped back above four dollars a gallon
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: in the US and that is going to stick and
• 6:55
  Speaker 6: continue going higher.
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: So yeah, five six dollars a gallon, this is.
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: Going to be you know, again, we need to just
• 7:00
  Speaker 6: do something to break the demand cycle, and those are
• 7:04
  Speaker 6: the prices it's going to take. What I should note
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: is that while gasoline is going you're going to mainly
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: feel the loss of or the oil price spike in
• 7:13
  Speaker 6: that in the gasoline price. What we're seeing is an
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: even more acute disruption in Middle dislots, so those would
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: be your you know, your diesels, your jet fuels, et cetera.
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: And part of that is because the Middle East, in
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: addition to being obviously the world's largest kind of single
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: conduit of oil exports or crude oil exports, is also
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: a major supplier of jet fuel to Asia and largely
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: diesel to Europe. And the diesel to your replaced the
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: banned imports from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine twenty two,
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: which is roughly the last time that the oil market
• 7:44
  Speaker 6: was exploding, and we were talking, you know, the last
• 7:47
  Speaker 6: time I first jumped on this show, and this is
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: the kind of situation we're seeing again.
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: Even in the opening.
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: Salvo of this what we saw was jet fuel demand
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: in Asia jumped to the equivalent of more than two
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: hundred dollars a barrel already. And part of what's crazy
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: here is that the refined products market, particular in Asia,
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: is going to front run the impact that we're seeing
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: from crude. And that's because, you know, as of a
• 8:08
  Speaker 6: week and a half ago, tankers were still flowing out
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: of the straight from US, So it takes a month
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: to two months for those tankers to get.
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: To those their destinations.
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: So it's going to be a month or two and
• 8:17
  Speaker 6: so we start to feel the loss of those crude
• 8:19
  Speaker 6: supplies in those global finding systems.
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: But what we're already seeing is that.
• 8:24
  Speaker 6: Refineries, particularly in Asia, were to depend on this feedstock,
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: they're terrified. Their worst case scenario is shutting down. They
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: don't like tutting their facilities down. It's very complicated, very expensive,
• 8:33
  Speaker 6: very tough to get.
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: Them back up and running.
• 8:34
  Speaker 6: So they have preemptively reduced operating levels, let's say, from
• 8:38
  Speaker 6: you know, ninety percent to sixty five percent, in order
• 8:42
  Speaker 6: to kind of extend the runway. But what that's done
• 8:44
  Speaker 6: is it's immediately cut supplies of diesel, jet fuel, et
• 8:47
  Speaker 6: cetera to the region. So, you know, this is why
• 8:50
  Speaker 6: the products impact is front running what we're even going
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: to see in crude.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: So we are obviously much more energy independent than we
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: were in the seventies. Are their tools at the US
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: government's disposal that they could use to help blunt the
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: impact for consumers?
• 9:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so I think the most important and obvious kind
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: of tool in this toolkit is the Strategic Patrolum Reserve.
• 9:11
  Speaker 6: And we actually saw I just woke up and saw
• 9:13
  Speaker 6: the news that the G seven with the United States
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: is considering a release of strategic stocks through the IA.
• 9:20
  Speaker 6: Potentially was a three hundred or four hundred million barrels,
• 9:23
  Speaker 6: which would that's exactly what should be.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: Happening right now.
• 9:25
  Speaker 6: It's actually shocking to me that up until this point,
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: the Trump administration has so kind of stubbornly refused to
• 9:32
  Speaker 6: entertain the idea of an SPR release, and partly because
• 9:36
  Speaker 6: they tied themselves in so many knots lambasting the Biden
• 9:39
  Speaker 6: administration about the use of the SPR and twenty twenty two,
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: which again at that time was a historic crisis. And
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: then because you know, even even in the Big Beautiful
• 9:49
  Speaker 6: Bill last year, the Trump administration had attempted to get
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: more money for the SPR to refill because the SPR
• 9:54
  Speaker 6: is effectively out of money.
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: Now.
• 9:56
  Speaker 6: The Biden administration had refilled, you know, sixty seven million barrels,
• 10:01
  Speaker 6: but then they ran out of cash because the rest
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: of the cash have been remitted to Congress. They need
• 10:06
  Speaker 6: more money to get to fill the SPR, and they
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: weren't able to get I think the actual appropriation requests
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: dropped from like a one point two billion to like
• 10:13
  Speaker 6: one hundred and eighteen million or those are rough numbers,
• 10:16
  Speaker 6: but you know, you had a massive cut in that
• 10:18
  Speaker 6: volume of crude, which is one hundred million dollars for
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: refill and crude and the scars basically nothing, and we
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: needed a lot more than that. So I think that's
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: the situation we're in right now.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: So, Rory, what we've seen right now is effective closure
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: of the straits of horn Moves. I know that there
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: are other pipelines which are operating. However, the Iranians there's
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: been othersome reporting about potential strikes on those. If we
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: do see shut down with a RAMCO also LNG, what
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: does that look like, you know, for our global energy market?
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: As you're saying, it's just demand destruction. People were just
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: in the developed world in Africa, it's like stop driving,
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: You're not going anywhere.
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: Is that what it looks like basically? And I think
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: so there's important differentiation here.
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: So when we talk about the closure of the straight
• 10:55
  Speaker 6: from Moos, that's you Let's say, you know, these numbers
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: are all over the place. Let's say twenty million barrel.
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: Roughly twenty percent of global supplies travel through the strait.
• 11:03
  Speaker 6: When those were effectively shuttered, I think of it as
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: like a kinked garden hose, right, so you know nothing's
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: coming through, but if it only lasted a day or two,
• 11:10
  Speaker 6: you could just unkick the hose and things just.
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: Kind of flow back to normal.
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: What we were seeing in the attacks against energy infrastructure
• 11:17
  Speaker 6: in the region, that's even the larger tail wrist than
• 11:19
  Speaker 6: the straight than the closure of the strait itself. You know,
• 11:22
  Speaker 6: if this the straight closure is like a kinked garden hose,
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: these facility attacks are more like taking a shotgun and
• 11:27
  Speaker 6: then blasting off the faucet to which the hose is attached.
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: Everything in the oil market is repayable, but that's a
• 11:32
  Speaker 6: far larger, longer kind of repair operation. The other thing
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: we've seen beyond that is that the pressure from that
• 11:40
  Speaker 6: that you know.
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: Kinked hose has built back up.
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: And the other issue is that a lot of the producers,
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: most notably are Rock and Kuwait, don't have a lot
• 11:47
  Speaker 6: of domestic storage for their for their crude, so when
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: they can't ship it out, they basically start shutting in production.
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: And what we've already seen is as of yesterday. I
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: haven't check the numbers yet this morning.
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: As of yesterday a rock had already shut in forced
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: because of the lack of export optionality. They'd already shut
• 12:04
  Speaker 6: in more than three million barrels a day, which, again
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: rewinding twenty twenty two, when we would have last spoke,
• 12:09
  Speaker 6: that was the feared loss from Russia with three million
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: barrels that we never actually saw, and that feared loss
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: was enough to push oil prices above one.
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: Hundred and twenty dollars a barrel.
• 12:21
  Speaker 6: We already have realized that loss in the first week
• 12:24
  Speaker 6: of this of this crisis in the golf.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: And I think the question is of what we expected
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: loss in twenty twenty two, just to put it into context.
• 12:33
  Speaker 6: Exactly, and we've already lost it. So that can be
• 12:36
  Speaker 6: turned back on, but it can't be turned back on
• 12:38
  Speaker 6: like you know, flipping a switch. It's going to take
• 12:40
  Speaker 6: weeks potentially, you know, you know, days or potentially weeks up.
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: To a month.
• 12:44
  Speaker 6: And that is again, these are massive volumes of crude
• 12:47
  Speaker 6: and the system needs to open itself back up. And
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: at this stage, the market and myself increasingly has no
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: confidence that this that this conflict is going to end again.
• 12:57
  Speaker 6: I never thought we would get this far. What we'd
• 13:00
  Speaker 6: seen from President Trump up to this stage had been
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: a series ever since, you know, twenty nineteen, when he
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: killed General Sulamani.
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: It was quick, sharp, You had kind.
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: Of almost a symbolic exchange of fire between US forces
• 13:14
  Speaker 6: and the Iranians, you know, the Iranians would you know
• 13:17
  Speaker 6: this was also happened in June of last year and
• 13:20
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty five during the twelve Day war between Israel
• 13:22
  Speaker 6: and Iran. You would kind of get these kind of
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: feigned attacks that you know, they weren't the big deal,
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: but you know, Iran couldn't be seen to just roll over,
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: so it was kind of like, we're gonna hit you
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: with a couple of missiles in a warehouse or you know,
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: a base, but you know it's not it's not a
• 13:37
  Speaker 6: massive thing, and they can kind of just like, okay,
• 13:40
  Speaker 6: that's fine, and we'll pack up and go away.
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: This time, however, they've gone full boar. You know, Trump
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: has not let up as quickly.
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: It's not been a flashy kind of cinematic event followed
• 13:50
  Speaker 6: by a declaration of victory, which is I still think
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: what he was hoping to achieve here, but the Iranians
• 13:55
  Speaker 6: did not give him that opportunity, and therefore we are
• 13:58
  Speaker 6: now stuck in this kind of prolonged conflict. And the
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: White House very clearly does not have any kind of
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: durable escape plan, and they did not plan for any
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: of these energy contingencies. We hear about things like shipping traffic,
• 14:11
  Speaker 6: you know, war insurance coverage from the Treasury Department. You know,
• 14:15
  Speaker 6: this is stuff that if they were really planning this,
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: they should have had this figured out months ago.
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: The fact that the fact that we are just.
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: At this now, they are clearly reacting and they're flailing.
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, that is part of what is so crazy
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: to me. Like literally, anyone, if you say war in
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: the Middle East, the first thing they're going to.
• 14:29
  Speaker 7: Think of as oil.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Right, It's like the basic number one of what's going
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: to be impacted if you have some sort of war
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: anywhere in the Middle East. My last question for you,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: because I know you've got to run, we really appreciate
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: your time, is how does this ripple We're focused on oil,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: we're focused on gas pumps, but how does this ripple
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: thround the entire economy?
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: Yeah, so I mean, you know, this is going to
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: feel if this continues much like much like the kind
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: of supply chain disruptions that we experienced in COVID. We
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: talked about this kind of bullwhip effect that when in
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: COVID we lost all this demand, so supply contracted in
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: and then demand recovered and supply was unable to keep up.
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: This is basically we're starting on the second phase of that.
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: We've lost the supply and it's such a large portion
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: of supply that we can't really make it up easily.
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: So you're going to start rationing throughout the economy. That's
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: going to force all of these kind of various industries
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: and countries into kind of more zero sum competition where
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: the system's not designed.
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: To go to work like that.
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: So it's going to be really hard, you know, to
• 15:26
  Speaker 6: predict the kind of knock on effects here. But if again,
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: if the stage cloth all of this is contingent on traffic,
• 15:33
  Speaker 6: not you know, resuming through the straight But if that occurs,
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: or we're talking about is not a global reception, We're
• 15:37
  Speaker 6: talking about upwards of like some kind of global depression
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: level event.
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: If this occurs, wow.
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: Wow, sobering words up again not an alarmist person, a
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: very straight minded independent analyst.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: We appreciate you was always Rory. Thank you, thanks for.
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: Having me, guys.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: Joining us now to discuss a number of recent developments though,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: including the selection of a new Supreme Leader of Iran is.
• 16:02
  Speaker 7: Front of the show.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Treta Parsi of course at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Staycraft.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: Great to see, sir, Good, good to be with you, guys.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: So let's go and put d one up on the screen.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: As I mentioned, new Supreme Leader has been chosen. He's
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: the son of the previous Supreme Leader. Tell us about
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: the significance of this and how he may differ from
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: his father.
• 16:21
  Speaker 8: So let me first start off by saying that very
• 16:23
  Speaker 8: few people on the outside really know much about what's
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: going on in the assembly of expert s hope brigand
• 16:31
  Speaker 8: who actually elects the Supreme Leader. And I definitely cannot
• 16:35
  Speaker 8: claim to have any expertise, but from the outside, analyzing
• 16:40
  Speaker 8: this and reading the tea leaves over the course of
• 16:44
  Speaker 8: the last couple of years and months, I think it
• 16:47
  Speaker 8: was quite clear that prior to all of this, most
• 16:50
  Speaker 8: of our Kamani was not a leading candidate.
• 16:52
  Speaker 9: His name was still in.
• 16:53
  Speaker 8: There, but there was a lot of resistance to him,
• 16:57
  Speaker 8: not only from the previous Supreme Leader, but also from others.
• 17:00
  Speaker 8: It seems to me that the killing of his father
• 17:03
  Speaker 8: by Israel, the killing of his mother, his wife, and
• 17:07
  Speaker 8: his child, really actually made him much more of a
• 17:13
  Speaker 8: likely successor to the previous Supreme leader, particularly also mindful
• 17:19
  Speaker 8: of the fact that Trump came out and said that
• 17:22
  Speaker 8: harmony that mosh of a Hamede would be unacceptable. It's
• 17:25
  Speaker 8: exactly the type of endorsement that I think he needed,
• 17:28
  Speaker 8: because what the Iranians are trying to do right now
• 17:31
  Speaker 8: with this choice is to signal total and absolute defiance.
• 17:36
  Speaker 8: They chose someone who clearly mindful of the fact that
• 17:39
  Speaker 8: his wife, child, father and mother were killed by Israel,
• 17:43
  Speaker 8: is in no reconciliatory mood, and as a result, I think,
• 17:47
  Speaker 8: you know, the signal is very clear. The Iranians are
• 17:50
  Speaker 8: sticking to their guns. They're not going to back down.
• 17:52
  Speaker 8: They're certainly not going to surrender. That's the message they
• 17:55
  Speaker 8: want to get across with his choice. Even though I'm
• 17:58
  Speaker 8: really strongly confident that he was not the leading candidate
• 18:02
  Speaker 8: had it not been for what just happened.
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, because his father even preached against hereditary monarchy, because
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: he was pointing out like the degeneracy of the previous
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: Shah regime. That's what made it even more shocking. But it's,
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: like you said, the fact that Donald Trump himself said
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: that's not somebody we want to deal with, it seems
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: very clearly like that is the most That is the
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: message intended foremost is wartime leader, somebody who himself has
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: personally suffered. Father is a martyr in terms of not
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: only religious authority, but in terms of national message to
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: the populace and to the world that they're not backing down.
• 18:36
  Speaker 8: Yeah, and look, there's not a lot of interviews with
• 18:39
  Speaker 8: him at all. Frankly, you know, he has a reputation
• 18:42
  Speaker 8: of being more hardlined than his father.
• 18:45
  Speaker 9: I don't know if that's true or not.
• 18:47
  Speaker 8: A lot remains to be seen, mindful of the fact
• 18:49
  Speaker 8: that he was almost never seen in public before. But
• 18:53
  Speaker 8: if it is so that he is more hardlined, and
• 18:56
  Speaker 8: I think, unfortunately the regime is going to go in
• 18:58
  Speaker 8: a much more hardline direction now since they're in a
• 19:01
  Speaker 8: war situation, it just further shows that these type of escalations, conflict, etc.
• 19:07
  Speaker 8: Is exactly the opposite of what you want, if your
• 19:11
  Speaker 8: desire actually is to move Iran in a much more
• 19:14
  Speaker 8: open minded and liberal direction. We're seeing the clear opposite
• 19:18
  Speaker 8: taking place in front of our eyes, in which they
• 19:20
  Speaker 8: just selected a person who simpleism is to show defiance
• 19:24
  Speaker 8: against the United States and anyone who wants to see
• 19:27
  Speaker 8: reform take place inside of Iran.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: What does the selection mean for the likelihood that Iran
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: would actually pursue a nuclear weapon.
• 19:35
  Speaker 8: Well, we have a scenario which the fatwa of the
• 19:38
  Speaker 8: Supreme Leader is now essentially gone with the Supreme Leader.
• 19:42
  Speaker 8: That is the main interpretation of these fatwas is that
• 19:45
  Speaker 8: they only last as long as the Supreme the Ayatola
• 19:48
  Speaker 8: who issued them is alive, and then they need to
• 19:51
  Speaker 8: be reissued by someone else. I mean, I don't think
• 19:54
  Speaker 8: it will be particularly early in his agenda to reissue it,
• 19:59
  Speaker 8: and there may be a from amount of pressure on
• 20:01
  Speaker 8: him not to do so because I think, you know,
• 20:04
  Speaker 8: the shift in mood in Iran.
• 20:06
  Speaker 9: Is very very clear.
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: There's a lot of argumentation that this was a mistake
• 20:11
  Speaker 8: for them not to build it. I don't necessarily think
• 20:13
  Speaker 8: that the capacity to do so without being de ticted,
• 20:16
  Speaker 8: et cetera, et cetera really was there. But I think
• 20:19
  Speaker 8: there's a strong view in many quarters in Iran that
• 20:22
  Speaker 8: the previous Supreme Leader simply wasn't decisive enough to go
• 20:26
  Speaker 8: in either direction. He didn't build a bomb, and at
• 20:29
  Speaker 8: the same time, he was not willing to do the
• 20:31
  Speaker 8: kind of full scale engagement with the United States to
• 20:34
  Speaker 8: get a deal done because he kept on refusing allowing
• 20:38
  Speaker 8: any Iranian officials to directly speak to Trump, which I
• 20:41
  Speaker 8: think was a mistake that is now, all you know,
• 20:44
  Speaker 8: extremely unlikely to happen. I fear very much that the
• 20:48
  Speaker 8: selection of Harmony Sun now means that any exit ramp
• 20:54
  Speaker 8: that potentially was available is even more difficult to materialize.
• 21:00
  Speaker 9: Now.
• 21:00
  Speaker 8: Trump could potentially just choose to the clear victory walk
• 21:06
  Speaker 8: away and say, look, I killed the Supreme Leader, I
• 21:08
  Speaker 8: destroyed so much of their nuclear program, so much of
• 21:11
  Speaker 8: their missile program. The country has been set back ten years,
• 21:14
  Speaker 8: he said, and just declear victory and leave it. I
• 21:17
  Speaker 8: don't think it would end there, because from the standpoint
• 21:19
  Speaker 8: of the ivunience, if that were to happen, they would
• 21:23
  Speaker 8: actually be in a much worse situation compared to the
• 21:25
  Speaker 8: beginning of the war, because the country is destroyed. They
• 21:28
  Speaker 8: can hardly export any oil, they can't get any cash,
• 21:32
  Speaker 8: and no one's going to come in from the outside
• 21:34
  Speaker 8: to rebuild the country, and their pathway toward Centcrius relief
• 21:37
  Speaker 8: is essentially blown up. So I don't think that's an
• 21:40
  Speaker 8: acceptable situation for them. I suspect that they actually would
• 21:43
  Speaker 8: continue the war even if Trump pulls out. They would
• 21:46
  Speaker 8: continue to target GCC states, they would continue.
• 21:49
  Speaker 9: To target Israel.
• 21:50
  Speaker 8: I think they're going to fight until they get an
• 21:52
  Speaker 8: outcome that they believe also puts them not necessarily in
• 21:55
  Speaker 8: a better position, but in one in which their prospects
• 21:59
  Speaker 8: of getting to better position is great, and meaning that
• 22:02
  Speaker 8: there is some sort of an arrangement indirectly or directly
• 22:05
  Speaker 8: with the United States, when some sanctions relief, the country
• 22:08
  Speaker 8: can be built up again, they can sell their order, etc.
• 22:12
  Speaker 8: And that at this point they've lost so much they
• 22:15
  Speaker 8: have nothing to lose to go even further, and trying
• 22:18
  Speaker 8: to make sure that they use their last resources in
• 22:20
  Speaker 8: order to be able to turn the tables around, which
• 22:22
  Speaker 8: is kind of the same situation Trump isn't. I think
• 22:25
  Speaker 8: he realizes that this was a huge mistake. He's lost
• 22:28
  Speaker 8: and he's not desperately trying to turn the tables, turn
• 22:31
  Speaker 8: this failure into a victory before the market crashes and
• 22:36
  Speaker 8: his own base turns against this war. His own base
• 22:39
  Speaker 8: has not quite yet turned against the war, at least
• 22:41
  Speaker 8: not in a very forceful way. So I think he
• 22:44
  Speaker 8: thinks he still has some time, and he's throwing everything
• 22:46
  Speaker 8: at the Vonians in the hope of turning this defeat
• 22:49
  Speaker 8: into a victory.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very good point.
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: Now, we did originally want to talk to you about
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: some of this failed diplomacy and potential offerances you're talking about.
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen. It all
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: kicked off with a very interesting statement over the weekend
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: where the Iranian Interim Leadership Council approved that neighboring countries
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: would no longer be attacked unless an attack on Iran
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: originated from them. This was seen as a potential off
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: ramp where they said, look, you don't use bases to
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: attack us, that we won't attack you. However, Trump immediately
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: then came out and let's go to the next one, guys,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: where he said Iran, which is being beat to hell,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: has apologized and surrendered to its Middle Eastern neighbors, promised
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: they won't shoot at them anymore. The promise was made
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: only because of an Israeli attack. Your analysis is that
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: his immediate shootdown of that potential off ramp immediately actually
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: re escalated the situation.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Can you get into it.
• 23:42
  Speaker 8: Yeah, So there was very sense that negotiations taking place
• 23:45
  Speaker 8: initiated by regional states, the Iranians had come to an
• 23:49
  Speaker 8: agreement with them that there would be a movement towards
• 23:52
  Speaker 8: not targeting them unless actually their sword was used for attacks,
• 23:57
  Speaker 8: and in some cases they happened.
• 23:59
  Speaker 9: This started often with this video.
• 24:02
  Speaker 8: Message by Posiskion in which he actually went further than
• 24:05
  Speaker 8: what had been agreed upon within the Iranian system. He
• 24:07
  Speaker 8: issued a personal apology, which of course took all the headlines.
• 24:11
  Speaker 8: This actually generated a tremendous amount of anger within the
• 24:15
  Speaker 8: Iranian system against him, and he came out and kind
• 24:17
  Speaker 8: of retracted it and said that he was misunderstood. But
• 24:21
  Speaker 8: and the next step was then for some of these
• 24:23
  Speaker 8: GCC states to observe what happens. Well, the Iranians actually
• 24:27
  Speaker 8: implement that and then issued their own state. Then they
• 24:30
  Speaker 8: would take a couple of hours in between. Trump comes
• 24:33
  Speaker 8: with this truth social and as you see there he
• 24:35
  Speaker 8: insults Iran, he humiliates Iran, and then he says that
• 24:38
  Speaker 8: Yvon will be hit very hard today. And only a
• 24:41
  Speaker 8: short period after that, the United States hit the desalination
• 24:44
  Speaker 8: planned in Veshma Island, which is a major, major escalation.
• 24:49
  Speaker 8: It's also a violation of Article fifty four of the
• 24:53
  Speaker 8: Geneva Conventions Protocol one. So immediately after that, the Irani
• 24:58
  Speaker 8: started pounding g SEC states as well as Israel, and
• 25:02
  Speaker 8: this whole thing just fell apart.
• 25:03
  Speaker 9: Now it is not entirely clear to me.
• 25:05
  Speaker 8: I've not been able to get to the bottom of
• 25:07
  Speaker 8: this as to whether Trump did this deliberately because he
• 25:10
  Speaker 8: wanted to sabotage that mediation effort, or whether this was
• 25:15
  Speaker 8: something that essentially further reflects that the US government is
• 25:19
  Speaker 8: somewhat in this array. That the GCC states had informed
• 25:22
  Speaker 8: the US of this deal, informed them of the status
• 25:24
  Speaker 8: of these negotiations, but Trump was not in the loop
• 25:28
  Speaker 8: or didn't care, didn't understand that. Him coming out and
• 25:32
  Speaker 8: issuing this tweet and going forward with this attack with
• 25:34
  Speaker 8: completely destroy matters. But this is what happened, and the
• 25:39
  Speaker 8: fact is that this diplomacy collapsed. Now, I do believe
• 25:42
  Speaker 8: that there's some other efforts being made right now to
• 25:44
  Speaker 8: resurrect it. But it tells you how delicate the situation
• 25:49
  Speaker 8: is and how problematic it is if the United States
• 25:53
  Speaker 8: is really just improvising this.
• 25:54
  Speaker 9: War at this point.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Israel, of course directly interested in broadening
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: this war as much as they possibly can and seeming to.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: We just talked about how they were blaming the UAE
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: for this during strike on the desalination plant in Iran,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Yua saying that is not true at all. But you
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: can see the incentives there of Israel, And we could
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: put D four up on the screen. This is one
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: of the strikes that happened from Iran shortly after this
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: attempted diplomacy fell apart. That is Dubai International Airport. That
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: is I mean, I'm sure all three of us have
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: been there multiple times.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: That was a jet fuel hangar too.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: And yeah, to see this is pretty astonishing, busiest airport
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: in the world, at least it was. And meanwhile, on
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: the escalation frontlet's put D five up on the screen.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: US is deploying yet another so this will be the
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: third one carrier strike.
• 26:42
  Speaker 7: Group to the Middle East.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Just an extraordinary amount of firepower being amassed in the region,
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: So it looks like this thing is only going in
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: one direction and it is not towards an off ramp.
• 26:54
  Speaker 9: Sotinly true.
• 26:54
  Speaker 8: And I think what you said about there Isel's constant
• 26:58
  Speaker 8: messaging that this was done by Bahre nobody ue has
• 27:01
  Speaker 8: infuriated these states because it's so clear the Israelis want
• 27:06
  Speaker 8: these GCC states to fully enter this war because not
• 27:11
  Speaker 8: that that makes a huge military difference, but because it
• 27:15
  Speaker 8: further ruins Iran GCC relations for decades to come. What
• 27:19
  Speaker 8: the Iranians are doing already now, it's going to create
• 27:21
  Speaker 8: a tremendous amount of problems between the GCC and Iran
• 27:24
  Speaker 8: going forward. There's a lot of anger obviously against the Iranians
• 27:29
  Speaker 8: and the GCC, particularly among six states that went out
• 27:32
  Speaker 8: of their way to make sure that this war was
• 27:34
  Speaker 8: prevented and there still trying to stop it. But what
• 27:37
  Speaker 8: the Israelis are doing is that they're trying to get
• 27:39
  Speaker 8: everyone directly involved in this conflict in order to make
• 27:42
  Speaker 8: sure that even once this is over, Iran's relations with
• 27:45
  Speaker 8: these states are going to be in a terrible state
• 27:47
  Speaker 8: for decades to come. We also have if I could
• 27:51
  Speaker 8: just add one thing, as much as we're talking about
• 27:53
  Speaker 8: like this war is you know, Trump is improvising it.
• 27:55
  Speaker 8: He's lost control. I think we have to be clear
• 27:58
  Speaker 8: that from the Israeli standpoint, this is a splendid success.
• 28:03
  Speaker 8: It doesn't matter to them if it's much Tabo or
• 28:06
  Speaker 8: it's Hassan or whoever it is that becomes the next
• 28:08
  Speaker 8: Supreme leader. None of these things are important. What's important
• 28:11
  Speaker 8: for them is that the country is being bombed to smithers,
• 28:14
  Speaker 8: that their power is being set back decades, that the
• 28:17
  Speaker 8: balance is going to be shifting in Israel's direction at
• 28:21
  Speaker 8: the end of this Regardless of exactly how it ends politically,
• 28:24
  Speaker 8: the way it ends militarily is that Evan's resources are
• 28:28
  Speaker 8: not really being drained in its military capabilities are even
• 28:31
  Speaker 8: though they may, I don't think they will at all surrender,
• 28:34
  Speaker 8: Even if that is not a surrender that it ends with. Militarily,
• 28:37
  Speaker 8: their capabilities will be set back dramatically, and that shifts
• 28:40
  Speaker 8: the balance of power in Israel's direction, which is exactly
• 28:43
  Speaker 8: what they're looking for.
• 28:44
  Speaker 9: It just so happens to be that the United States
• 28:46
  Speaker 9: is paying for all of it.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: Right, They don't care at all about a stabile right
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: in fact, they don't want Iran to be stable. They
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: don't even care about American gas prices, they don't care
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: about American lives. They care least about the GCC countries.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: We're the only ones that have any interest. Oh, Asian
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: markets are tumbling, boohoo. You know they could care less.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: One of the things we've also seen, though, is the
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: explosion of civil conflict in Iraq. Let's go ahead and
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: put D six up here on the screen where we've
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: seen Iraqi resistance units who are in direct contact. This
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: was a claim with US forces. Hasn't been exactly confirmed,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: but we definitely know that there's a lot of stuff
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: going on in and around Iraq where there's been significant consternation.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: What is the possibility You've talked about.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: This on the show before, about resistance in Bahrain with
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: the Shia population in Iraq, attacks potentially there and a
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: broadening of some sort of like Arab Spring style uprising
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: in the middle of all this conflict if it continues
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: to blast.
• 29:40
  Speaker 8: We don't know quite yet exactly how strong the Iranian
• 29:44
  Speaker 8: intelligence capabilities are. I mean, clearly they have capabilities, but
• 29:48
  Speaker 8: their ability to actually ferment them unrest or support it
• 29:52
  Speaker 8: in Saudi Arabia and the eastern provinces, or in Bayhra,
• 29:55
  Speaker 8: and we've already seen some sporadic spontaneous protests, particularly by
• 30:00
  Speaker 8: her in early on, So that is an unknown, but
• 30:03
  Speaker 8: we definitely know that in Iraq there are plenty of
• 30:07
  Speaker 8: armed militias that are still quite loyal to Iran.
• 30:10
  Speaker 9: They believe that.
• 30:12
  Speaker 8: Particularly if the curves were to go in, I think
• 30:15
  Speaker 8: that definitely would have activated these other Iraqi militias against this,
• 30:19
  Speaker 8: and all of Iraq would have been once again being thrown
• 30:21
  Speaker 8: into some form of a civil war. So you know,
• 30:24
  Speaker 8: the idea that this would be quick, that this would
• 30:27
  Speaker 8: just entail Iran, all of that was disproven within the
• 30:30
  Speaker 8: first forty eight hours. But it can still get much
• 30:33
  Speaker 8: much worse than what we already have seen, particularly if
• 30:36
  Speaker 8: those groups are activated. We're already seen that there's open
• 30:39
  Speaker 8: fighting now between Hezbela and Lebanon, and of course the
• 30:42
  Speaker 8: Houtis are still sitting tight, whether they're sitting tight as
• 30:46
  Speaker 8: a warning to Saudi Arabia not to enter the war
• 30:49
  Speaker 8: and they would only go in if the Saudis going,
• 30:52
  Speaker 8: or whether they're waiting for a moment in which the
• 30:56
  Speaker 8: chalkpoint in the Strait of Hormos is becoming really really high,
• 30:59
  Speaker 8: and then add another problem to it by closing down
• 31:02
  Speaker 8: the Red Sea again, which would really just be devastating
• 31:05
  Speaker 8: to the entire global economy. It doesn't remain clear to
• 31:08
  Speaker 8: me exactly what the strategy is, but I think it's
• 31:10
  Speaker 8: very interesting that so far they've been sitting time. But
• 31:13
  Speaker 8: I don't think that that is because they don't have
• 31:15
  Speaker 8: the capability or the willingness to get in. It seems
• 31:18
  Speaker 8: to be a much more complex calculation that they have
• 31:21
  Speaker 8: that is all about timing rather than willingness.
• 31:23
  Speaker 7: I agree, Leslie.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Let's put this piece of news up on the screen.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: Saudi American diplomats in Saudi Arabia have been ordered to
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: leave State Department side to order diplomats to go. Order
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: departure of US employees and the Kingdom indicates senior diplomats
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: are bracing for possible search in violence in the war
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: with Iran.
• 31:41
  Speaker 7: What do you make of this development?
• 31:43
  Speaker 9: It shows that.
• 31:44
  Speaker 8: At this point the Iranians are the ones that are
• 31:46
  Speaker 8: determining the geography of this war. They have already been
• 31:50
  Speaker 8: able to hit major CIA stations inside of some of
• 31:54
  Speaker 8: the GCC states. They have also then later on identified
• 31:58
  Speaker 8: where those CIA personnel moved and they hit those places.
• 32:04
  Speaker 8: So their ability to strike, particularly with these drones that
• 32:07
  Speaker 8: are not being picked up by the air defense systems
• 32:10
  Speaker 8: in the same way precisely because they're moving so slowly.
• 32:13
  Speaker 9: If they were.
• 32:14
  Speaker 8: Moving faster, they actually would have been detected, has given
• 32:17
  Speaker 8: the Iranians a significant benefit. Saudi Arabia and the GCC
• 32:21
  Speaker 8: states are not asking Ukraine for help because the Ukrainians
• 32:24
  Speaker 8: have now four years of experienced dealing with some of
• 32:27
  Speaker 8: these drones that the Iranians are using. So we're seeing
• 32:30
  Speaker 8: I mean, this war is just expanding, it is providing
• 32:34
  Speaker 8: a tremendous amount of cost. But I do think that
• 32:37
  Speaker 8: the Trump administration has managed to keep the cost of
• 32:41
  Speaker 8: this war rather hidden from the American public, not just
• 32:45
  Speaker 8: in terms of the tremendous amount of money that is
• 32:48
  Speaker 8: being spent, but also the tremendous amount of facilities that
• 32:52
  Speaker 8: are being destroyed. We're talking about some fad radar detectors
• 32:57
  Speaker 8: that cost up to one billion dollars that have been
• 32:59
  Speaker 8: this Jordan will take years to rebuild. But also do
• 33:02
  Speaker 8: note that the administration is not saying a word about
• 33:05
  Speaker 8: the number of casualties. You have mentioned the number of dead,
• 33:09
  Speaker 8: not the number of casualties.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, great point, and all I mean not to mention.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: Even every day I read about some Pakistani laborer who
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: got killed, or heard multiple people in Bahrain and Kuwait.
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: I mean there's a lot of civilians who've been caught up,
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: and then that in Tehran. God only knows the number
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: of people who've been killed, probably in the thousands at
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: this point.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Absolutely such a disaster. Thank you very much, sir. I'm
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: sure we'll see you again.
• 33:36
  Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having me.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: So we wanted to ask in this show just how
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: bad are things and just how bad could things get.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: Professor Jeffrey Sachs, who you know we've had on this
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: program a number of times, was speaking to Glenn Deeson
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: over on his YouTube program, and he said that he
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: believes we are already in the early stages of World
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: War three.
• 33:57
  Speaker 7: Let's go ahead and take a listen to.
• 33:59
  Speaker 10: That is Real is a crazy rogue state with the
• 34:04
  Speaker 10: half its political leadership in the mindset of the fifth
• 34:09
  Speaker 10: century BC reading some text from King Josiah.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: And.
• 34:18
  Speaker 10: There Israel has just plunged the world into probably the
• 34:25
  Speaker 10: third World war, but into a phenomenal economic crisis. This
• 34:30
  Speaker 10: is the timing. The instigation is Israel's. The fact that
• 34:36
  Speaker 10: the US goes along with it is because it's completely
• 34:39
  Speaker 10: coherent with the US hegemonic project. But this is Israel
• 34:46
  Speaker 10: complete madness, and because of the whold of the Israel
• 34:51
  Speaker 10: lobby in the United States, that madness isn't even examined.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: I don't want to be alarmist, but I also want
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: to be clear eye about where we are and where
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: this could go. And already we have we can put
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: the next piece up on the screen. We have reports
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: that Russia is providing Aroun with intel, which makes perfect
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: sense about the locations and movements of American troop ships
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: and aircraft, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: reporting on the issue. In the same way we viewed
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity, Hey, let's get involved,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Let's do a proxy war. Maybe we can hurt Russia,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: maybe we can degrade their capability. They are viewing this
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: as a similar opportunity. In addition, US also has intelligence
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: suggesting I'm reading from the CNN report that China may
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: and missile components. Three people familiar with the matter said,
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: China relies heavily on Irani and oil, and has reportedly
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: been pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage for vessels through
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: the straight over moves. So we have directly impacted their
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: interests in terms of their energy landscape. Although I don't
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: want to overstate that, because China I think some ten
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: to fifteen percent of their oil comes from Iran, so
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not great for them, but it's not
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: a total incomplete disaster the way that it has been portrayed.
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, the people who are arguing, a, oh, this
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: is all about hurting China. This is all about hurting China.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: The math doesn't really math when you consider that the
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: country that is being you know, one of the countries
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: that is being hardest hit by this is US, their
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: geopolitical rival. So when you look at that, when you
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: look at the fact we're already in this proxy conflict
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: in Ukraine with Russia, when you look at you know,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: you've got a proxy conflict going on in Sudan as well.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: Obviously we're you know in our own hemisphere, Venezuela, you know,
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: kidnapping Maduro and quote unquote taking over there. Now we're
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: belligerently threatening Cuba as well. It does have some of
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: the ingredients, and especially with the uncontrolled escalation spiral that
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: we're already in, it does have some of the ingredients
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: of a broader conflagration, especially when you add on the
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: table the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons, which I
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: don't think either one of us can rule out.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: I mean, I wouldn't put it's zero, which is scary enough.
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know what five what are you at? I'm
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: at like three percent, which is I mean, it's too high.
• 37:05
  Speaker 7: World War three, okay, but.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the whole World War thing.
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: So even when people say world War three, the expectation
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: of World War three is just going to look like
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: World War two.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: World World War two looked nothing like World War One, okay.
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: So the idea that the new frontier of battle is
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: going to look exactly like some carbon copy of something
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: that happened eighty years ago is preposterous. It is going
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: to look actually exactly like it does right now. You
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: and I consider the Ukraine War to be a proxy conflict. Yes, well, okay,
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: that is a global conflict because all of NATO, the
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: United States sanctions, the entire economic system, all of these
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: US institutions which were designed post World War Two were
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: leveraged against Russia. That literally, to me is basically warfare.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: You could call it what you want, whether the US
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: boots are on the ground, if Russians are providing intelligence,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: it's the same thing. Also, who are we to complain
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: how many times do we do battle damage assessments and
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: we do more for the Ukrainians of the Russians done
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: for Tehran so far, and now we're complaining.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Good luck selling that.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: I'm club No consider you know, all of the weapons
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: and intelligence, intelligence training for years.
• 38:13
  Speaker 7: And years and exactly so that we.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: Folk think about, I mean, yeah, exactly like not to
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: turn it into a Ukraine thing, but that already was
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: a proxy conflict. This is a proxy conflict now, but
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: it's got a long history in the post World War
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: two era. This is what global conflicts look like. Afghanistan
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: became globalized, Vietnam became globalized, Syria globalized, Libya became global
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: like every one of these interventions, the Iraq conflict right.
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: The war in Iraq was not between the US and Saddam.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: That portion only lasted like three weeks. It was the
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: US versus Iran versus all of these other you know,
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: during the Syrians, during al Qaeda, like, all of these
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: people coming from all over the globe.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Same in Syria, I mean.
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Israel, has Bola from Labanon, like,
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: all of these people were involved. So World War three,
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: if you will, is going to look a lot more
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: like this because of mutually a short destruction and nuclear
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: weapons between the great superpowers. It will look a lot
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: more like those conflicts that happened throughout the Cold War.
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: That it is less destructive in terms of overall human life.
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: But I mean you can still be an abject disaster,
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: like how many people died in the wars in Iraq
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: and Afghanistan Americans maybe seven thousand, right, I mean there
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: were more people killed in a single hour of combat
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: in like some of the world wars in that But
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: that doesn't mean that the strategic implication was not an
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: absolute nightmare for all of us. So I think that's
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: why we need to recalibrate some of our expectations I
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: don't think Jeffrey Sachs is wrong.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Really, what I'm the most worried about.
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: Is the climb up the escalation ladder, which we talked
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: about from oil and to water, because there's no coming
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: back from that. Like once you start going after civilian infrastructure,
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: it's a disaster because everyone has to fight to the death.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: There's a clip going around.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: I was telling you earlier where Trump said unconditional strender.
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: I talked about that with Tucker, and Tucker made a
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: comment and he was like, unconditional surrender means that foreign
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: troops get to rape your wife and daughter. Provocative, But
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, look at the history of unconditional surrender. That
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: is unambiguously true. Randy Fine and Laura luomerol, like Tucker
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: says American troops are going to be It's like, that's
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: not the point, guys. The point is is that when
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: you're faced with that, as the Germans were with the
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: Soviet Union, you want to know how many you know,
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: not a lot.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: Of people talk about it.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: It's something like two point five million rapes that occurred
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: over the battle through the conquest of Germany.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: It's it's dark, like it's really really dark. Jengus Khan.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: That was unconditional surrender.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: And that's the point is that when you impose that
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: on a foreign populace, you have to do either what
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: the United States or the Union Army did to the
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: South during the Civil War is burn their civilian infrastructure
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: to the ground, take away all their food. In World
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: War Two, literally have to invade and go block by block.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: The Soviet Union, they incurred four hundred thousand casualties in
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: nineteen forty five, just in the last six months of
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: the war. There are four hundred thousand casualties on the
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: front line. Whenever you know, in the Battle of Berlin.
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: Think in the United States, how did we get unconditional
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: surrender in World War Two? We had to drop two
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: atomic bombs to force.
• 41:13
  Speaker 7: Them well, and then even know that we had to put.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Okay, well, use either two atomic bombs, which I mean,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: if you look at the decision matrix, it was either
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: two atomic bombs or hundreds of thousands of American casualties.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: There was no other option. That was it if you
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: want an unconditional surrender. And even then we still had
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: to revise our unconditional surrender to make it so that
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: the Emperor could stay as some sort of figurehead. That's
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: what it takes to achieve something like this, And that's
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: effectively like we're on the road now and it's only
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: been eight days.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Usually it doesn't even take it.
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: Usually it takes much longer than this to get to
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: some sort of disastrous position.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: Also, you have to think of this from the perspective
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: of the rest of the world. Right, it was one
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: thing when Trump is like, Okay, we're going to dominate
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: our hemisphere. Right, We're gonna do the you know, we're
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: gonna do whatever we want. We're going to make sure
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: we've installed these puppet regimes where we've kidnapped leaders and we've.
• 42:04
  Speaker 7: Brought everybody to heal. We're going to do that.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: And Russia and China you've got your you know, China particularly,
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: you've got your spheres of influence.
• 42:10
  Speaker 7: You do what you want over that. Okay, that's one thing.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: They love that. That's one they're like, we believe We're like, sure,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Donroe doctrine. We're cool. Yeah, they're like, then we get Taiwan, right, yeah.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: But now, especially when you consider we've you know, Trump
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: has not solved the Ukraine conflict. We are you know,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: in endless war in Ukraine. We are locked in a
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: proxy war with Russia and Ukraine. Okay, and now you
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: add to the mix. Oh, by the way, we're going
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: to destroy Iran. We're going to you know, do regime
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: change or collapse the regime or whatever in that recha. Well,
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: that's not our hemisphere. It becomes clear that the point
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: is to dominate the entire world. The point the response
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: from the Trump administration to you know, the the decline
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: of our empire and the decline of our superpower status
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: as the sole global hedgemon, is not to say, all right,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: let's come to some sort of accommodation with the world.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: The response is no, We're going to have a one
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: point five trillion dollar defense budget and we are going
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: to dominate the entire world. We're going to do whatever
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: we want to whoever we want, no holds barred, law
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: of the jungle. And I have to think that if
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: you're a China, if you're a Russia, if you're any
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: other you know, significant power in the world, that is
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: an unacceptable approach to you. So it is intentionally bringing
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: us into direct conflict with these other countries. And again,
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: this isn't theoretical. This is already happening now, especially with
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: China considering, you know, involving themselves directly in our war
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: in Iran, and you can understand why we're messing with
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: their stuff, We're messing with their oil, and we are
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: also asserting to the world that we are going to
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: try to dominate the entire world. We're going to blow
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: up the UN and these other you know, institutions of
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: global cooperation. We're going to put Trump at the head
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: of the quote unquote Board of Peace and you know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: allow him to serve in perpetuity and get to appoint
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: his successor, and you have to pay to get in,
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: and ultimately he has veto power. That is the direction
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: that they have clearly broadcast to the world. And so yeah,
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: the rest of the world at some point already is
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: going to have something to say about that.
• 44:17
  Speaker 7: So that's one piece.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: The other piece here is the possibility of the deployment
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: of nuclear weapons because now you have obviously Israel also
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: nuclear power and completely psychotic, and you know, parts of
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: it driven by these you know, religious fanaticism. Parts of
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: our government driven by religious fanaticism, which makes this whole
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: thing scary as well. Obviously, Iran is a literal theocracy,
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: so you have religious fanaticism there as well. And you
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: have these very dominant comments recently from Netnyahu. Let's put
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: a six up on the screen where he is promising
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: some sort of a major surprise for Iran. He says
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: that will completely destabilize the country. Now he's asking Irani's
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: to lay down their weapons and surrender or face death.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: He said, quote, the moment of truth is approaching, and
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: he will free Iran and make Iran and Israel allies. Okay,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: so we have that, So what is that major surprise?
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: That's a little uncomfortable. And then this also just came out.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: It can be e seven up on the screen. You've
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: got this guy who makes these like doomsday bunkers that
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: are supposed to be, you know, to allow you to
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: survive drone attacks, blistic missile strikes, or even nuclear armageddon.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: And he claims that two senior cabinet members in the
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Trump administration are among his clients. One of them texted
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: me yesterday asking me, quote, when will my bunker be ready?
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: So not exactly comforting when the people who are in
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: charge here are preparing their doomsday bunkers and trying to
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: rush delivery, concerned about how quickly they will have access
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: to this anti armagedon armageddon proof bunker for themselves.
• 45:54
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if it's true or not,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: but it is crazy, and.
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: I do think, you know, to the whole World War
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: point and actually what you were saying about how others
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: will react, I'm very world War one brain. So to
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: me this it's like everyone's like, oh, this is going
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: to cause World War three and I'm like, no, I
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: don't think so if we were to have like a
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: real massive thing. But what it does is it shatters
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: the illusions and the understandings that we all have. So
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: there was the Boer War, which a lot of people
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: don't know about, but you know, it's between Britain, and
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: what it did is it pierced like this idea of
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: splendid isolation. It really heightened the tensions between the Anglos
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: and the Germans.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: It led to the Triple On Tent.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: But more importantly, it normalized like a lot of the
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: modern trench warfare, the concentration camp. That's where a lot
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: of that stuff came from. But what it did is
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: it set the stage for well, wow, Britain is not
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: nearly as invincible as we all thought, which means we
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: need to rearm because oh it's a paper tiger maybe,
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: and that's what leads to the Great Clash in nineteen fourteen.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Well, I could see this very similarly. It's like you
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: have this.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, nobody could say that this was essential for
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: US security, just like Iraq. So you have this, you know,
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: foreign adventurous conflict. Some Americans will die, but not hundreds
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: of thousands or anything like that. I'm not minimizing their
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: debts in any way. I'm saying domestically, we can absorb that.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: If we could absorb seven thousand casualties from the Global
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: War on Terror, most people, how did the GWOT impact them? Well,
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: we all knew somebody who maybe have deployed and came
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: back with PTSD, But for the most people, it was
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: high gas prices, bad politics, etc. But it wasn't like
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: an attack literally on our everyday civilization. This is very similar.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Most people will be very upset, but it's not going
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: to directly impact your life in the way that.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: A real world war would.
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: But China, Russia, all any of these other countries, what
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: they're watching for. Is any of the kinks in our
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: armor interceptors, for example, the breakdown in the global order
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: the GCC countries after this is all over, you really
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: think they're going to be great friends with America.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: So we have to rebuild all these radar systems.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: You need permission, you have status to force agreements with
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: every one of these countries.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Are you re signing? I don't think so, I really don't.
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: Or we're going to have to bribe the shit out
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: of them with weapons we don't have, yeah.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Or we'll have to take from somebody else.
• 48:03
  Speaker 7: And how about this.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: Let's say China does take this as opportunity to move
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: on Taiwan. Then we're not ready for that. Not militarily,
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I personally think it would be
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: insane to get in a fight with China over Taiwan, ever,
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: but especially at this point. But we're also not prepared
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: domestically to We have not spun up the semiconductor capacity
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: that we need.
• 48:24
  Speaker 7: We're fucked.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, that's and that's the reason that anyone
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: cares about Taiwan. Really, it's not about human rights and democracy,
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: total incomplete bullshit. It's the semiconductors. That's the whole thing.
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: We aren't prepared for that. So what are we going
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: to do?
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Then?
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: Then we're you know, in a direct conflict with China.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I mean, I I do sort
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: of agree with Jeffrey Sachs and also with your point
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: that in a sense we are already in that conflict now.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: It doesn't look like World War one. It doesn't look
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: like World War two. To your point, it's not going
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: to especially in you know, the nuclear age where you
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: have not just US, but it's in Russia and China,
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: all these nuclear powers that are you know, hopefully not
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: itching to destroy the entire world, hopefully, but in terms
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: of the lines of conflict and being engaged in these
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: various proxy fights, I mean, it's already on. And there's
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: something else that I saw online that I thought was
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: an intelligent point as well. You know, we talked a
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: lot in the show about the possibility of boots on
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: the ground, and we're talking about specifically, you know, probably
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: special forces to begin with at least raid into Iran
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: to try to recover this loose nuclear material whatever. But
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: in a broader sense, we already have boots on the ground.
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a regional war, and we have
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of American service members who are in the region,
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: boots on the ground getting killed in action right now
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: and getting wounded. We don't know how many right now
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: as part of this fight. So in a sense, it's
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: a bit of a distinction without a difference, because there
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: is no doubt there are already American service member boots
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: on the ground in the middle of this war, in
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: the theater of combat where all of the action is happening.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: Of course, yeah, you're right. We have boots on the
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: ground and four deployed bases. Which for what to defend?
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: Who?
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: Israel?
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: Well, no, they would say, no, it's not to defend Israel.
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: Let's to defend the golf countries. How's that working out?
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: How's that working out for the golf countries?
• 50:07
  Speaker 7: You're feeling very defended right now.
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: They are furious on the timeline Amarati billionaires with massive
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: amounts of money invested here are all posting about how
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: upset they are with the United States. Also, just so
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: people know, the billionaires are the cutouts for the royal family.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: That's how it works over there.
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: You don't have free speech, you don't put out long
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: essays criticizing the US government without at least TACIT admission
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: or without TACIT permission from the monarchy are the people
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: who are in charge. These are all messages which are
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: intended for the United States. Again, not that anybody cares
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: last point on this, because it really makes me upset.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Our actual allies, like really good allies, South Korea and Japan.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Their stock market.
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: South Korea's stock market is down fourteen percent, Japan is
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: down like eight It's a disaster. The vast majority of
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: their oil comes from the Middle East. Their economies are
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: getting hammered, and we're losing. We're taking away possibly interceptors
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: and others like those I mean South Korea, Japan.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: These are not Israel, where we do fifty three billion
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: in bilatal trade.
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: I'm talking about hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars for
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: the global economy.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: And those people are mean.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: Get hung left out to dry by Washington. It's so disgraceful.
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: All right, Let's get to Lindsay Graham. Turning now to
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: the person who should be having the most fun in
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: this war, Lindsey Graham. He's at the height of his
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: powers here in Washington. How did he get there. It
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: turns out by colluding directly with Prime Minister net and
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: Yahoo of Israel and their own intelligence agencies, using their
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: tactics to lobby Donald Trump behind the scenes, and now
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: openly bragging about war and death and all the money
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: we're gonna make from this war. How we're even going
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: to free Cuba on Fox News airwaves. It's beyond two
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: thousand and three, madness. Let's take a listen.
• 51:52
  Speaker 11: This regime goes down, We're gonna have a new Mideast.
• 51:55
  Speaker 11: We're gonna make a ton of money. Nobody will threaten
• 51:58
  Speaker 11: the straits of horror moons, and we're going to win
• 52:01
  Speaker 11: chel in the United States. You just wait to see
• 52:04
  Speaker 11: what comes in the next two weeks.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: The next two weeks meaning what.
• 52:10
  Speaker 11: We're gonna blow the hell out of these people. This
• 52:13
  Speaker 11: regime is in a death row now. It is going
• 52:16
  Speaker 11: to be on its knees. I'm not looking for a
• 52:19
  Speaker 11: fair fight. If we get in a fight, I want
• 52:20
  Speaker 11: to win it.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: I want to win it quick.
• 52:22
  Speaker 11: I'm in Miami.
• 52:23
  Speaker 7: You see this hat, Free Cuba.
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: Stay tuned.
• 52:26
  Speaker 11: The liberation of Cuba is upon us.
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: It's just a matter of time.
• 52:30
  Speaker 9: Now.
• 52:30
  Speaker 11: You see this at make a ron great. President Trump said,
• 52:34
  Speaker 11: the only way to make a ron great is for
• 52:36
  Speaker 11: the people to take over. We're marching through the world.
• 52:39
  Speaker 11: We're cleaning out the bad guys. We're gonna have relationships
• 52:42
  Speaker 11: with new people that will make us prosperous. And say,
• 52:45
  Speaker 11: I've never seen anybody like it. This is Ronald reagand Plus,
• 52:50
  Speaker 11: Donald Trump is resetting the world in a way nobody
• 52:53
  Speaker 11: could have dreamed of a year ago. He is the
• 52:55
  Speaker 11: greatest commander in chief of all time. Our military is
• 52:58
  Speaker 11: the best of all time. Iran is going down, and
• 53:02
  Speaker 11: Cuba is next.
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: Does he even have a hat that says America on it?
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: You know, I mean, how many hats does this guy
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: have of foreign countries? It's crazy.
• 53:09
  Speaker 7: I mean, to the heroes, we're marching through the world.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, we're cleaning out all the bad guys. Plus,
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: it's like Jesus Christ. I mean, it's worse than two
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: thousand and five rud Er. Genuinely, We're marching through the
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: world insanity. And yet you know he's he's getting a
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: little nervous about the oil situation too.
• 53:30
  Speaker 7: I'll read this. I don't think we have this as
• 53:31
  Speaker 7: an element.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: But he says in this tweet, our allies in Israel
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: have shown amazing capability when it comes to collapsing the
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: murderous regime in Iran.
• 53:39
  Speaker 7: America is most appreciative. Speak for yourself.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: However, there will be a day soon the Iranian people
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: will be in charge of their own fate, not the
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: murderous Iatola's regime. In that regard, please be cautious about
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: what targets you select. Our goal is to liberate the
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: Iranian people in a fashion that does not cripple their
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: chance to start a new and better life when this
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: regime collapses. The oil economy of Iran will be essential
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: to that endeavor. So when they were murdering schoolgirls, he
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: didn't have any problem with that. He was, you know,
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: on error, ecstatic. We're merching through the world, blah blah blah.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: Now that the oil is threatened at home, that's.
• 54:10
  Speaker 7: That's too far. That's a bridge too far.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Asaga, we can't have an attacking the you know, any
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: of the oil impacted, that would be a real problem
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: for lit right.
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: But here's the reality and the reason why is that again,
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: America has a interest in a stable Iran afterwards. Why
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: because we want the prize of oil where the global empire.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Israel doesn't care.
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: And yet for him to be chimping out over this,
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: it's like, dude, this is what you signed us up for,
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: and let's go and put F two on the screen
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: because this shit is so crazy. To help make the
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: case on Iran, Graham traveled several times to Israel in
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: recent weeks, meeting with members of the country's intelligence agency. Quote,
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: they'll tell me things our own government won't tell me,
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: he said. He spoke with Prime Minister Netanyaho coaching him
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: on how to lobby the president for action. I mean,
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: you directly have a Senate, a senator United States Center
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: from South Carolina, who is traveling multiple times to the
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: country of Israel, where he's bragging about it. He's meeting
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: with them, he's being coached by them, coaching them. I mean,
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: they talk about his long game going all the way
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: back to twenty fifteen, about him sucking up to Donald
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: Trump after initially getting into it with on the campaign trail,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: about how he historically would butter Trump up, about comparing
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: the Ayatola to Hitler and saying that the only thing
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: you have to fear is fear itself. Saying, FDR, He's like,
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: you're going to be one of the greats. Reminded Trump
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: about ripping up Obama's nuclear deal at every turn. Quote
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: White House aids even would call him the annoying crazy
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: uncle because you would always be showing up at Trump's
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: golf clubs just sitting in his ear talking whispering sweet
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: nothings about how good it is whenever it comes to Iran,
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: and he's the proponent, not only as they point out,
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: of Iran but Lebanon. He wants to widen the war.
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: He's fundamentally with Israeli interests. And look, I won't you know,
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: speculate to Senator Graham's personal, you know, reasons for supporting this.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: But look, here's one at least I think fair hit
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: beyond any of the stuff about his own personal life.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: This guy doesn't have any children, you know, he doesn't
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: have any investment in the future of the country. He's
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: in his seventies. This is all just a game for him,
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: like at an intellectual exercise. He wants to be Richard
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: Russell or any of these other senators and get their
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: name on a building who had a great senator Fulbright
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: and get a scholarship named after him, Like that's what's
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: driving him, not any of our prosperity, any of our interests.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: And that's why it's so sickening.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: This is another reason why the old men in charge
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: of this country was a problem, because they start thinking
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: about their legacy and start doing insane things. Apparently is
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: a problem that we're having right now because I think
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: that's part of the calculus for Trump as well. He
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: wants to leave his mark on the world, and I
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: don't think he really, you know, gives a shit whether
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: it's a good mark or a bad.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: Or the ayahtola.
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: He was eighty six, you know, he was super cerebral.
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: That's what everybody said around me. Make any decisions. He's
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: an old man. He just wants to die a martyr.
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: Hen's yeah, we got gave it.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: To congratulations, accomplished his goal with our help. And just
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: look at this next to the response from the Iranian
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: foreign minister to the revelations about Lindsey Graham, which again
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: I just want to sit on for a.
• 57:16
  Speaker 7: Sec just think of how crazy this is.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: He is going to a foreign country, getting intelligence from them,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: coaching their leader about how to drag us into a war,
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: how to convince our president to take us into a war,
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: and apparently was successful. So he said here in response
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: to this very article in Iran, an official could never
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: travel to another country to collude with a foreign spy
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: service on how to coach our own president into doing
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: the bidding of foreigners. We would ask what the foreign
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: country may have on that official and promptly charge him
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: or her with high treason. And if we were functioning
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: society and thinking in the same direction, that is how
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: utterly insane this is. And with Lindsay Graham, you know,
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: you guys may remember going back to he was actually
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: in that presidential primary as like, and also ran in
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: the twenty sixteen presidential election, fierce critic of.
• 58:10
  Speaker 7: Trump because he worried that Trump would not.
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: Be excited about getting into these wars based on Trump's
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: rhetoric at the time as being you know, against the
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: Iraq war, et cetera. Then he turns into Trump's sick
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: a fan. Then you know, he's very critical of Trump
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: after January sixth, but very quickly he realizes, okay, the
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: way to be able to manipulate this man. And again
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: this is not to absolve Trump at all. Trust me,
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: I hate the man and I think he is leading
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: the country and the world into utter disaster and it
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: is one hundred percent all on him. But to understand
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: the forces around him, he thought that the best way
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: to manipulate.
• 58:42
  Speaker 7: Trump would be to get back in his good.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: Graces as quickly as possible after January sixth, and so
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: that's what he did, and we saw, you know, his
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: first to endorse him. He has been playing this game
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: for a while now, all to effectuate exactly this outcome.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: And so when you see him on Fox News and
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: he's the happiest man on the planet, watching bombs rain
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: down and murdered little schoolgirls and oil fall from the
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: sky and all of the region in flames, and he's
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: just happy as he could possibly be. Yeah, this is
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: the fulfillment of a lifelong and I do actually think
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: it's just an ideological like he has been very consistent
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: in his neo kan war mongering convictions over many many years,
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: and here he is. He finally found the guy who
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: was willing to go where no president had been willing
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: to go before. I don't know if you saw Tony
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: Blinkin talking about that the Israelis actually tried to use
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: this same approach with Obama, where they were like, well,
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: we're going to Bambaran no matter what, so you better
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: be with us, and Obama was like no, and guess what,
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: it didn't happen. I learned at the idea that we
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: had no choice because Israel's going, and no, you had
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: a choice. The choice would have been to say no
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: to Israel, but nobody's you know, he seems completely incapable
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: of doing it.
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: The moment I can to love doctor Parsi is when
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: we were all in school and he did two or
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: three weeks on that exact decision, the Decision point two
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: thousand and nine. He made us read all the profiles
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: and everything. And it's funny because all of the students
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: were like hardcore neo cons and so this was like
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: a shocking development to their minds about Israeli pressure.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: And I really came away from that.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: Class being like, man, he really remember this was a
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: long time ago for me, so I was in a
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: very different phase of my understanding of the American Empire,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: and I was like.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe these reelies aren't the good guys.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: Area I was reading this and I was like, this
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: is a real problem man, And then he spent weeks
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: actually making us study how these Raelies and the Iranians
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: had actually fine enough relations beforehand, like in the nineteen eighties,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: and clean break and the new strategy and how they
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: devised it all around Iran.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: This like blew my mind.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: Actually, at the time I got it was like twenty three,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: twenty four or something. But that's that's why it's so
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: important to know that history is that many previous presidents
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: Obama included, actually Israelis basically give them some sort of ultimatum,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: and enough of.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Them were like, they're like, who do you think you are?
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: I mean Bill Clinton famously, who's the fucking superpower here
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: whenever talking to them, So yeah, it could be done.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: It's only Trump who is either weak, compromised, I mean,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: who the hell knows, maybe just dumb. Enough is that
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: usually this simplest explanation is the easiest one. But regardless
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: of what it is, we're in it now, and now
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: that we're in it, it's there's no off ramp. There's
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: no off ramp. People like Lindsay Graham and all of
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: them are in charge. And people should also notice this
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: is that all of these neocom people who hated Trump,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: as you said, are sucking up to him more than ever.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: They're the ones who are now declaring, like what true man?
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: And you know what, at this point, I'm like, what
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: is the useful to define maga or whatever. It's like,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: you can have it. If you want this to be it,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: take it. You know, it's all go all in. I
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: hope you are. But the only danger, and I worry
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: about this I wonder if you do too, is how
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: can we make sure that this doesn't happen again? Because
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: this was supposed to be the entire project post you Rock.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: And one of the lessons from that is that we
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: allowed these people to be rehabilitated in society. Paul Wolfowits
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: and Douglas five and I mean all of these guys,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: I mean got jobs, right Washington, Rumsfeld.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: Bush changing Bush is like a lib icon. Now, oh
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: he's just a painter, Grandpa. It's like, no, he's not.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: No, that's I mean, that's that is the lesson. People
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: need to fucking go to jail. They need to go
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: to jail. There needs to be professional concercises. It's unbelievable
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: that we have some of the very same quote unquote
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: journalists who you know, cheerleader the Iraq war, who are
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: now still around to cheerlead the Iran war.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 7: It's crazy making.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, not only was there not accountability, but in
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: many instances these people continue to fail upward because as
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: long as you're wrong in a way that is regime
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: and empire compliant, then you're good to go. That cannot
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: continue to be the case if we want to avoid
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: this again in the future, and we need to be
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: you know, thinking about that right now, if we all
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: survive this, because the level of danger that has been
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: created for a financial catastrophe, for a violent catastrophe, you know,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: the potential blowback impacts, I.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 7: Mean we already already.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: What has been done is so consequential and so devastating
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: and you know, very hard to see how we watched blowback.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: We didn't even cover this used a long time ago.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: We would have There's some crazy shit going down in
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: New York that's some isis inspired plot or yah NYPI
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: is saying it's isis inspired?
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, you take it for what it is. Yeah, I
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: want to see.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 7: Any whether it was an ID.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: There was something what that's a story in New York
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: City right, Austin.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: I mean all of these other arrests. Look, you can
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: say false life, regardless of whether what it is. I mean,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: it's important that all of this stuff is starting to
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: heat up there.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: I mean people, look, whether those are legitimate or whatever,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: people around the world hate our guts right, and are
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: only going to hate us more the more they watch
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: our bombs fall on innocent schoolgirls and our president lie
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: about it and us throw our weight around the world.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 7: World. You don't think that's going to have consequences here
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 7: at home. You don't think that.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: I mean Trump got asked about this, He got asked
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: about that, and he was like, yeah, I guess that, Yeah,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: that could happen. I mean, just completely blase about the
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: potential consequences for a war that a minority, a minority
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: of the population is wants to fight at all. So yeah,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: Lindsay apparently is earning his place in history here.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 7: No doubt.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: He was extremely influential, and he played his cards right,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: and he knew how to manipulate Trump. Again, that is,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: this is all comes down to Trump. The buck stops
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: with him. But he was one of the forces that
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: was pushing in this direction, and he got his wish.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean his name will ring out, that's
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: for sure, knowing Washington, though, he'll get his name on
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: a damned building and then fifty years from now, but
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: the Graham Centered office building.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: That's how.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: You know, Kyle and I were talking about this. How
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: are they going to spend this thing? Like in the
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: history books? How can you possibly spend this thing?
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: He always do.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, I hate look, hate to be a genuine doomer.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: But everyone said that about Vietnam.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: Guess what.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: All those people were fine, they were super rich, you
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: know all yeah, but it's.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: Like nothing happened still is seen as a catastroph It's
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: like synonymous with an American military catastrophe, as is the
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: Iraq War, although they still try to, you know, to
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: spin it if you.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: Can say, you can say Iraq was a disaster. But
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: did anybody really pay a price? Every single one of
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: those generals, filthy rich, None of them paid any price.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: Not just the generals, all of the political leaders. I
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: knew some of these people. They're all still sitting here
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: pretty in Washington. Dick Cheney, his obituary said, what he's
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: basically a hero for democracy.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: George W. Bush is a painter. Like I said, Vietnam,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: Connie's back in the White House. Connie talk about that.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: George buy and Trump made Robert, these guys they died fine.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: You know, nobody paid any price.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: That fifty thousand people were killed, not to mention, was
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: a million or so Vietnamese, Cambodians, all these folks.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: LVJ. He died of a heart attack.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: It was like at the end of the day, Like
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: most of the time, it doesn't work out the way
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: we actually wanted to.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: It's honestly, it's tragic.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 7: We have to fight birds in the difference this time.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, We'll see you guys tomorrow.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: Kay,