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March Madness Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast presented by bet
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: three six ' five. We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: It is almost the eve of March Madness. This will
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: be the biggest betting event we have for many months
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to come. So what do we do? We got March Madness,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: we bring in the Action Network. Og the Prime Minister
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, a man who has not slept since
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: July of twenty twenty three. He is the host of
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the Big Bets on Campus podcast. He is the host
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: of the Big Bets on Campus Live show. He is
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: a master of all sports, but specifically college basketball, so
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: much so that he is a famed one named Moniker
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: after his favorite college basketball player, Stuckey. Is going to
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: join us on the show, and he's gonna take us
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: all the way through the first round to the final four.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Tell us how we're gonna make some money? Of course,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I am joined by my co host, my companion, Michael
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Padre might be f professional better Simon Hunteto. So I'm in.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad. We made it mid March.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: March Madness is here, buddy, But we got away there
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: obviously first got to hear how you're feeling about your
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Bears moves, all the Bear chaos, how you feel about
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: Justin Fields and the moves you guys made a freegency
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: pretty exciting times in Chicago.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm up and down right like number one. I
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: can remember viscerally when the Bears drafted Justin Fields and
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: me and my kid were jumping off the couch, hugging, Screamingphorick.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And the fact that we are now talking about the
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields era being over in Chicago, when we were
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: desperately falling in love with this guy and his team
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: loved him, The city was loving him. We were loving
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the way he played with Abandon. I think the fact
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: that the Bears could only get a sixth round pick
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: is to me not reflective necessarily of the Bears missing
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: out on the market. Maybe they did, maybe they didn't.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, I think every other
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: team looked at the film and saw the same thing
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the Bears saw, which is why they're drafting Caleb Williams
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and saw a dynamic athlete who had not developed as
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: a passer, was not a guy who would get it
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: done Layton Games, who was not executing in the most
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: important moments of every game, and they got them. They
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: got rid of him for what they could get, and
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: this is the best it's going to be. So I'm
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: sad emotionally. I loved him as a player, I loved
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: him as a Bear. I wanted him.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: To do well.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: But dude, you're giving me a guy who everybody is
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: saying is a once in a generation quarterback. And he's
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: throwing a DJ Moore. He's handing off to DeAndre Swift,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: he's throwing to Keenan Allen, he's throwing to Cole Kmet
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Like all of a sudden, this is a very dynamic offense.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm over it really fast.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I will say that it's just the way the
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: NFL has moved now, right with the rookie pay scale.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Justin Fields is very talented, but there was a reason
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: he did drop in the draft, and there's a reason
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: that you know Williams has talked about in a different way.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: So with Justin Fields in this move with the Bears,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: we talked about they really didn't have any other choice.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: If he had come in and taken you guys to
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: the playoffs this season like Jordan Love did, with Green Bay.
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: I think then maybe they do trade out and make
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: different moves at this point, right because they would have
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: a reason to believe in them. So I know Bears
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: Fands were upset about. I agree with Lowhi. You said
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: that at the end of the day, it is it
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: does fall mainly onto Justin field shoulders, and you can
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: blame situation all you want.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: When there's players like CJ.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: You step in and can take guys who are not
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: that good on Houston make them into Pro Bowlers. That's
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: when they talk about you draft these quarterbacks that make
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: teams of sense. So yeah, if you're upset about losing
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Justin Fields ins Walks the number one pick overall with
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: tons of expectations and Williams n Yeah, just really exciting
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: tis right now, Chicago Chubb.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: We're gonna dig much much deeper into it. Next week.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: We'll talk free agency, the end of free agency, how
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: it's impacting draft, what we're seeing, how it's impacting, how
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: we're thinking about futures, and just general landscaping for the NFL.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about it next week. As a reminder,
• 4:46
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  Speaker 1: four free for the opening round one game tips off.
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• 6:12
  Speaker 1: All Right, I promised Stucky, who was so popular. I
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: like to remind people Stucky is so popular. Before we
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: launched Action Network, Stucky, with a private Twitter account, had
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: twenty three thousand followers that he was going through and
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: improving one by one. That's how much cred this guy has.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I know he's exhausted. He may have fallen asleep during
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: our blabbering intro. Stuck before we even get to it,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: before we get to the tournament, very quickly, because people
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: will listen to this pod today. We got playing games
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: tonight and tomorrow. I don't need reasons. Tell me right
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: now your picks for playing games tonight or tomorrow? Best ones.
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: For the playing games. And by the way, he said, King,
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: I go by Prime Minister, but that's okay.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: The Prime Minister of degenerate nation.
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I let's say tonight. I I really don't love
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: either game tonight tomorrow. I do like Colorado. I would
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: lean Grambling if I had to take both games. Tonight,
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: I would take Colorado State and I would take Wagner.
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: But I'm not in a rush to bet either. And
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: these get the first four games to me, unless I
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: really love something, it's kind of like the like I
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: actually have a bet. I have a bet on the
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: n I t tonight in Boston College, and I like
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: app State tomorrow night. But the first four to me,
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: it's sort of like betting on the coin toss or
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: the anthem, Like I don't want to I want to
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: wait until the actual thing. It's like that's how I
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: grew up. There was never our first four, so you
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: have like you used to have this break and then
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: Thursday at Tuelbow seven pm. You know, it's the longest morning.
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: You're finishing up your brackets, finishing up getting in all
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: of your contests. That's like Christmas morning for adults, finalizing all.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Of your bets.
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: So that's like when the tournament really starts for me.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: So these first four games, unless I really love love something,
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: which I don't, tonight, I'm a okay passing.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: We are big, big Wagner fans in the Millman House.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Since my wife is from Staten Island, we are going.
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: To I'm I am thirty to one to win the
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: any C. They were first team.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Ever, we are going to be rooting so hard for
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Wagner to represent Staten Island. All right, So, uh, you
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: come number one overall seed, number one seed in their
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: region and calling the East the region of death? What
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: is your logic there? How should this impact our betting?
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, interestingly enough, the defending champ hasn't won a
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: game in the second weekend in sixteen years, So the
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: defending champ hasn't had much success, and that was I
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: believe when Florida, who was the last team to go
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: back to back, won two straight national titles. But Yukon
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: is a juggernaut by any metric. They are supremely talented,
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: well coached, They run extremely good offense, they have a
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: ton of size, they have future NBA talent on the perimeter.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: There's really no weaknesses to this team, and they can
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: just put runs on you fast. So I know I
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: could see Yukon being the exception to the rule at
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: least of late and I have them advancing to the
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: Elite eight. I think that they're that good, they're that dominant.
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: But this region, if you look at it, the committee
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: did them no favors. You have in Yukon's region, who's
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: the number one overall seed. You got Iowa State as
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: your two they were the Big Twelve champ. You have
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: Auburn as your four SEC champ. Ranked in the top
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: five on Ken Palm, it's arguably a top five team.
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: They're the four seed. Your three seed is Illinois, one
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: of the most talented offensive teams in the country. They
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: just won the Big Ten championships. You got the you know,
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: the Big East, the Big Ten, the SEC, and the
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: Big Twelve conference champions all in this region. And then
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: guess what. You have San Diego State as the five,
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: Florida Atlantic the eight. New Yukon could play in the
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: second round. Both those teams with a number of the
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: same pieces last year, made it to the Final four
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: last year. So you have two Final four teams. In
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: addition is the teams that are seated five or less.
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: So this region is just absolutely loaded. And I mean
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: the fact that Yukon who you know, if you just
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: go based on Ken Palm, Yukon number one, Auburn also
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: in the top five, that could be a Sweet sixteen matchup.
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: So this is not an easy path but I don't.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: I just don't trust the Auburn guards. They're too erratic
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: for me. So while I don't think it's necessarily a
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: bad strategy to have Auburn if you're in a big
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: pool beating Yukon there, I personally just can't see it.
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: I think that Yukon has too much class and they're
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: just too dominant. But history suggests the national champ we'll
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: make it till the second weekend over the past fifteen years.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so interesting the conversation here. I live in
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Central Connecticut. I live thirty five forty minutes from Yukon's campus.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: My kid and I we went to Yukon game this year.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Danny Hurley is just becoming a legend in Central Connecticut
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: and in this state, not just because of how well
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: the team is playing, but he is no fox like.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: He is out there. He is yelling at fans, he
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: is representing in every way. He is so freaking competitive,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: he is so scrappy, he is so fun. I love
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: this Ucon team. I want them to advance. I'm glad
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: they got the number one seed. I feel like the
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: tournament does this every year. The NCAA does this every year,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: they put like all the best bet on teams in
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the same region, and it's so freaking annoying because you
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: spend four months tracking these teams and trying to get
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: a bead on who are the teams that you think
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: might be underrated that might give you a little bit
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: of an advantage when you get to projecting in the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: NCAA tournament as a better or as a racketeer, and
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: then they fuck you. The selection committee screws you every
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: single time. Stucky agree or disagree.
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean a lot of times they'll put like
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: two really good mid majors that I want to bet
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: on against each other in the first round, which I
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: always hate. This year, I had on our Big Bets
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: on Campus podcast, we put together a futures portfolio, one
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: bet a week over the past two months, and I
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: bet these four futures. Four of our futures are all
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: in the same region, with Houston and Kentucky winning the
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: national title. And then I have final four flyers on Texas,
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: A and M and Colorado who are all in the
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: South region. So hopefully at least one of those teams
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: comes out of the South. But you're right, yeah, the
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: committee more times than not botches.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: It.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Look, at the end of the day, whoever gets in
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: gets in, and it's betters, then all right, give us
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: the matchups and then hey, let's get the lines and
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: then let's bet it. But this seating this year was
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: just so bizarre, and we are like thanking the chairman
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: for like who you know, how many people build brackets.
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: It's like, it's not this this job that takes like
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: this effort that should be rewarded. It's like, come on,
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: you're putting together a turn of bracket and this is
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: supposed to be your job and they can never get
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: it right, Like dou Caine in New Mexico are seated
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: the same. That's just insanity. But whatever, I'm past all
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: of that. We're onto the games, We're onto the bracket,
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: and we're on to try and find some.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Bets that stuck here.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: Are there any big frauds that stand out to that
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: teams you want to fade head into this tournament that
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: you just haven't trusted heading into this thing, and now
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: they're playing against teams you do trust, and you're thinking
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: you're getting great value in that matchup.
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, generally speaking, the teams that profile as you
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: know upset can of dates is higher seeds. They all have,
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: you know, similar traits in that you know, if you
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: take them all together and then you map them out,
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: and a lot of times they're elite offenses with bad defenses.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: And there's three teams that really stick out in that regard.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: Unfortunately for me, I'm in Lexington. I hope Kentucky makes
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: a deep run for a future that I have, but
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: also for my wife's bars and the city. But Kentucky
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: elite offense, top ten, top five offense, arguably maybe the best,
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: a defense that sits outside the top one hundred and
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: overall just a efficiency. If you look at just that
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: profile top ten offense, defense outside the top one hundred,
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: no team is ever with that profile advanced past the
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: sweet sixteen. You know, also fits that profile in Alabama
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: team that you know, all offense, no defense they basically have.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: They have no rim defense. They have just no one
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: really that has just great defensive DNA. It's a pretty
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: flawed roster from that perspective. They shoot a ton of threes,
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: they have an offshooting night, they're gone because they can't
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: stop anybody. Same with Kentucky. Kentucky just can't stop anybody,
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: and that is just not a recipe for success in
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: the tournament. Illinois also fits that profile, major defensive issues,
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: elite top five ish offense in the country. They're adjusted
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: defensiveicialing around like ninetieth. They remind me of a lot
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: of Iowa. Two years ago, we saw Keegan Murray rip
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: through the Big Ten tournament. Think he scored one hundred
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: and six points over the weekend. That same thing almost
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: happened this weekend with Arren Shann, but I think scored
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: close to one hundred. Illinois ran through the Big Ten
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: tournament and they are, you know, fifth in overall justed
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: OFFENSI efficiency. That's what Iowa was, and they both were
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: around eighty fifth, ninetieth. So I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois. Now, look,
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: they have the talent Terren chen Damask that off of
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: the talent to make a deep run, but they fit
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: the profile of a team that gets upset early on,
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: and they're playing a team that fits the profile of
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: one that pulls off an upset. As a lower seat,
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: you want to look for teams that play slower, like
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: if you look, if you group together, then all the
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: big upsets by lower seeds. A lot of them play
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: half court games, slow it down, fewer possessions, more variants,
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: and more head State super talented team. They got this
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: kid Riley Minnix who is JUCO Player of the Year,
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: the OVC Player of the Year six seven is to
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: score inside and out. They also shoot and make a
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: ton of threes, which is another characteristic you're looking for.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: And they're going to slow the game down. They're not
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: overly reliant on one player, so Illinois if you're looking
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: for just a crazy upset that not a lot of
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: people are going to have in their bracket. I also
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: like morehead State against the spread. Whine has come down
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: a little bit, but they could put a scare into
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: Illinois as long as they stat of foul trouble don't
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: have much depth.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: And I want to get I want to get deeper
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: into the first round because I think there's a lot
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: of ringing mashups and even if we don't like the seating,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: there are some decent opportunities. Simon, can you name the
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• 18:10
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  Speaker 1: our college basketball analysts, had a really interesting tweet. I
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: know it was late last night or this morning, about twelve, five,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: thirteen four seeds. If you bet every twelve and thirteen
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: seed against the spread and on the money line, you've
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: made money in eleven of the past fifteen NCAA tournaments.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: It's about fifty eight percent against the spread, and you're
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: up about fifteen units against the On the money line,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: you're up about fourteen units in total. That means you'd
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: be placing sixteen bets eight against the spread eight money
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: line if you did the twelve five thirteen four Calabrese method.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Five twelve thirteen four is always an interesting matchup. You know,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: you mentioned Illinois and Moorhead State. That's a three fourteen.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: But as we're looking at these five twelves and these
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: thirteen fours, tell me what's standing out to you right now?
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean seven number thirteen seeds of one at
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: least well in the first round. Number thirteen seeds of
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: one in the first round over the past seven tournaments,
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: so you're averaging one per year, and one team seed
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: a thirteen or lower has won a first round game
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: in fourteen of the past fifteen NCAA tournaments. We've seen
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: a fifteen too win a game in each of the
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: past three tournaments getting to the sweet sixteenth. It's been
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: a crazy run for fifteen seeds. But looking at the
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: four thirteens, they all are really intriguing to me. As
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: you know, I could make a case why there could
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: be an upset, So we'll start. Let's start in the East.
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: We have Yale and Auburn. Auburn jobbed in their seating right,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: they could arguably metricwise, should be a one or at two.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: Now they get Yale. Yale does a couple things. Look,
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: we've seen IVY League teams like Princeton last year make
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: a runner. The Speed sixteen is a fifteen seed. They
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: beat a way more talented team in Arizona in the
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: first round of two seed, which is where you know, Arizona,
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: excuse me, where Auburn should really be here. What does
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: Yale do? They slow the game down, right, They have
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: a lot of They can shoot from three. They also
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: have some mid range shooters, which you need against the
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: Auburn defense that really does take away anything at the
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: rim and does effectively take away the three point shot.
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: But you know, they don't really turn it over. They're
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: good on the defensive glass. They're just not going to
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: beat themselves, and they're going to grind the game down
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: to a halt run, good offense. They're well coached, so
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: Auburn is. And look, not turning it over as important
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: against Auburn's defense. So if Yale can just grind that
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: game down to a halt and make it uncomfortable for Auburn.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: You know, then the nerves are going to start coming in.
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: Yale fits the profile a team that pulls off upsets
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: to the West, Colgate, what are we doing? Four to
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: thirteens the West? Alabama Charleston. This is the reason you
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: would pick Charleston. This is your three point variance game.
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: All this game is is three point variants. These are
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: two of the highest three point shooting rate teams in
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: the country. There's going to be breeze all over play.
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: So how does Alabama lose this game? And both these
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: defenses have holes all over they have an all shooting
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: then they go, you know, six of thirty from three.
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: They could lose this game. If Charleston isn't all shooting night,
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: they're going to lose by thirty because then Alabama, in
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: transitioning at the rim, is gonna eat them alive. But
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: that's what you're looking for when you want to pick
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: an upset two I think things you want to look for.
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: Can a team really slow it down, lower the possessions,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: if they shoot a lot of threes, that's even better,
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: Increase the variants even more, or you have a team
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: in a super fast paced game with a lot of
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: three point variants and they're capable of matching the other
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: three three. And if you want to know how high
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: scoring this game potentially could be, I believe the totals
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: at one seventy two have not seen a total that
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: high in a tournament game since nineteen ninety five. So
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: there should be a ton of points here. But if
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: Alabama is an all shooting night, their defense has major holes.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: Charleston can shoot the three they've been red hot of late,
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: as long as the regression bug doesn't hit. If Alabama's
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: all from three, Charleston's winning that game.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: In the South, by the way, I'll say our man
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, just because it's not NFL season doesn't mean
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: that Evanie Abrams doesn't dig into the stats. He tweeted
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: out that exact stat about this being the highest total
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: basically in almost twenty years, this Alabama Charleston game.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, now it was, and now it's up to one
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: seventy two, which is high since nineteen ninety five. In
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: the South, you have Duke who in twenty twelve and
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: in twenty fourteen. Some people don't remember they were upset
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: as a top three seed against Mercer and Lehigh with CJ. McCollum,
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: have been avoided any of those upsets since. But Vermont
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: well coached team. They are experienced, They have an outstanding defense,
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: and they slow the game down to a crawl. They
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: you know, don't go after any offensive rebounds because they
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: want to get back and do not let you get
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: in transition. They want the game to be super slow,
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: half court, grinded out style, and Duke doesn't play that
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: fast this year, so this should be a half court game.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: Vermont also shoots a ton of threes, so there's high
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: variants here. They're not great from the perimeter, but they have,
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: you know, a few different capable guys who can get hot,
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: so you know they're not going to beat themselves again.
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: They're good on the defensive glass, they don't foul, they
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: don't turn it over on the offensive end. If they're
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: hitting their threes in a lower scoring game. Right this
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: totals round, I think one point thirty one ish Vermont
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: could potentially have the opportunity. Now they're going to be
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: extremely at They're going to be an extreme disadvantage as
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: far as talent and athleticism, especially at the guard positions,
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: but their defense is legit. They have a kid at
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: the rim who's really good and a kid Bogues on
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: the outside who's a lockdown perimeter defender. They're making their threes.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: Look out. You could have Vermont putting a scare or
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: potentially pulling off an upset, as it did in two
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: thousand and five when TJ. Soorantine famously hit that shot
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: from the parking lot, which was Vermont's only tournament win
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: in program history. And then going to the West the Midwest,
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: we have what Samford Kansas. Now, what's interesting about this matchup.
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: I don't really love the matchup for Sanford because Samford
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: wants to run. They play what's called Bucky Ball under
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: their coach Bucky McMillan, Super up tempo, just run, run, running, gun, transition,
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: They press, they try to force turnovers. They run heavy,
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: extended pressure zone. Getting into a transition game with Kansas
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: and zoning Kansas isn't the best idea. They also don't
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: have size to deal with Hunter Dickinson. But there are
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: some things that potentially could work in sanford'sia. They are fast,
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: but they shoot a ton of threes. They allow a
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: ton of three, so they could have three point variants
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: working in their favor. It is a team, by the way,
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: that lost by fifty five to Purdue in the first
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: game of the season. They had no answer for Eaty.
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: But what makes this game interesting is that Kansas has injuries.
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: You know, two of their best players and two of
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: the best players in the country Kevin mccullor is going
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: to play at the next level Hunter Dickinson.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: They're big men.
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: They didn't play in the Big twelve tournament. Now some
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: of that was probably precautionary, but we don't know how
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: healthy they really are or how limited they'll be. And
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: kind of a nuanced thing here is this game will
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: be played in Salt Lake City. Samford is deep, one
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: of the deepest teams in the country, if not the most.
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: You know, they go, we'll go twelve deep. They have
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: eight guys who shoot over thirty eight percent from three,
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: and they will chuck threes. But they have a lot
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: of depth. They're playing in outitude. Kansas doesn't have a
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: lot of depth, and if they're also dealing with injuries,
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: you know, that could show in the second half of
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: this game, where Samford could potentially you know, in an
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: up tempo game, wear down Kansas, the legs could potentially
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: go so on paper, I don't love getting you know,
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: a team that's super fast paced, not not a lot
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: of size, and Kansas is such a good transition offense.
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: But the injuries, the altitude, Sanford's depth make it really interesting.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: So I can make a case for any of the four.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: What I would recommend, and what I usually do from
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: this crop is, you know the thirteen seeds, don't pick
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: them all to advance, pick one that you like and
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: roll with that. You don't want to go all upsets,
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: but you know, if there's a thirteen or fourteen that
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: you really like, you know, maybe pick one or two
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: from the thirteen to fifteen seed line. That's usually what
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: I do, and I'll have a piece out if it's
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: not up already. Actually, overk dot com, I rank all
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: of the potential upset chances of the thirteen through fifteen seeds.
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: And it's not just by projected lines. It's also looking
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: at the matchup and then the amount of variants in
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: that game, so the pace, the amount of threes, you know,
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: any injury concerns. So definitely could make a case for
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: all of the thirteens here, but don't go crazy and
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: pick them all.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: That piece is out because I'm reading it, Sorry, Simon,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I just wanted people to know. Go to actionnetwork dot
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: com download the Action Network Gap checkout Stucky's piece on
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: his best bets for seats thirteen to fifteen.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: Simon, go and just picking back off what he's saying.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: That's that I saw.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it was Evan or one of
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: our guys from Action tweeted out that if you're looking
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: for futures and the crazy upsets, college basketball's not the
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: greatest place. Apparently the last forty years, there's only been
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: four twenty one to one or longer long shots that
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: came through and won the national title. And surprisingly two
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: of the times those Yukon, which with one of them
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: was last year and the other two were Villanova, So
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: it tends to be if you're betting the future market.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: I think Stucky's kind of touching a little bit here
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: where it's like there's so many variances in shooting, you
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: just want to bet the best team for the most
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: part of the best coach in college basketball, And I mean,
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: people don't remember that Ukon team last year was one
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: of the best college basketball teams we've ever seen. Quietly,
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: people don't realize, I mean, I'm almost Obbausly. They won
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: every game by double digits. In their final Yeah, their
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: final game was against San Diego State, which is just
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: crazy to think back that San Diego State was almost.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: The winner of March Madness last year.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: So I got a lot of questions about people asking
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: me about the long shot stuff. I feel like, Stuck,
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: he's kind of talking about it right here where it's
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: like a lot of the best teams are kind of
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: going to move on here.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: So you know, I didn't know if you mentioned it yet, Stuck.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Do you have anything you haven't said.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: Yet of your favorite ATS bets for the next Thursday
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: Friday matchups?
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I let's see on. Let me pull up the
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: app to see what I have on Thursday. I already
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: talked about more at State. I think that's you know,
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: the line has come down a little bit. I still
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: like it a bit from where it is against Illinois,
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: a team that profiles is a great upset candidate, very
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: well coached experience. Going up against that Illinois team that
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: just really lacks defense. I also like Drake against Washington State. Drake,
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: you can be pretty close to home, might have a
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: little home crowd advantage, and I like the matchup for them.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: They're big men, can stay on the court in this
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: particular matchup. Their super experienced. They were here last year.
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: They were up by eight five to go in Miami.
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: You went to the final four and just choked away
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: the lead. Debrees their best player had one of his
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: worst games. I really like this matchup for Drake. Just
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: x's and O's off that written up as to why
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: I won't go too deep into it. I also like
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: Akron on Thursday. It's not a pick. I've seen a
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: lot of people talk about either way in the game
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: between Akron and Creighton. But the MAC has quietly been
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: very good as double did underdogs, and their coach John
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: Gross in particular, has been great in the tournament. He's
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: seven to one against the spread and has pulled off
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: a couple upsets when he was with Ohio now he's
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: with Akron. But this Acron team they folded down the stretch.
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: They kind of picked it up in the MAC tournament.
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: They got a little lucky. There was a Kent State
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: foul at the end of the game, thinking the game,
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: you know, if they had a foub but they were
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: actually up one with four to go. That's the only
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: reason that they're here. I still feel bad for that kid.
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: But they were just they couldn't make a three. They
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: were shooting like they shot like twenty eight percent from
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: three after February first, they were thirty four percent before.
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: So they were just running into some bad shooting variants.
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: But Ackron can do a number of things here. One,
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: they generally slowed the game down. They are very experienced,
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: and this was a team, you know, three or four
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: starters are back from a team that two years ago
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: in the tournament took UCLA down to the wire. Final
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: score of that game fifty seven to fifty three. Creyton
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: does not play fast. They're very methodical. Akron, you know,
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: is gonna slow this game down. You have to hit
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: mid range jumpers. Against Creighton. They play a drop defense
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: with KLK Brenner protects the rim Kent State. Excuse me.
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: Akron has a number of those guys who can hit
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: mid range jumpers. They have a big their center who
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: can step out and hit from three at like thirty
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: six thirty seven percent Enrique Freeman's a really good player.
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: This is really experienced team that's gonna slow the game
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: down right it to a halt. And if you're you know,
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: looking at the matchup on both sides, it's not a
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: terrible matchup for Akron, So I wouldn't be surprised if
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: that game is close late. I think that there's definitely
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: some value in the Zips Friday. I I like Baylor
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: to blow the doors off of Colgate. The athletic and
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: talent mismatch there is just too great, and Baylor should
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: be getting Nanston Love back. He's one of the best
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: six men in the country. They have three future NBA players.
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: I just I cannot see Colgate hanging around. This is
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: not the same Colgate team that we saw the past
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: couple of years. Their offensive adjusted deficiency last year forty fourth,
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: this year two hundred and twelve. They lost two really
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: important wing players. Their defense is a little bit better,
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: but they are They're just going to be athletically overmatched here.
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: So I think Baylor eventually pulls away from Colgate and
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: those offenses that were better than this year against kind
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: of similar teams in two of the past three years.
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: You know, They were in it against Wisconsin in kind
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: of a half court ish battle, but they lost by
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: twenty to Texas. They lost by seventeen to Arkansas. I
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: think that's what we're looking at against a Baylor team, young, talented,
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: They've changed their defense. They're gone more zone, which Drew
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: used to run of late, which has fixed some of
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: their issues, will make them even more dangerous in the tournament.
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: Outside of conference play, Drew had some teams that he
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: took to the legally because of his zone. I think bayl
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: are not the worst pick to make it to the
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: final four as well. That West Region with North Carolina
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: is the one very vulnerable one, especially compared to the others.
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: I think there could be chaos in that region if
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: I was very confident. I'm still filling out my bracket.
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: I went through all the first round games over the
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: past two days. I now have to go through every
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: potential matchup over the next day, so I haven't finalized
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: like how my bracket's breaking yet. But even though I've
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: gone through all the first rounds, I'm still not confident
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: who wins Michigan State Mississippi State. There's always this dilemma
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: the one seed that I want to fade and or
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: just knock them off my bracket. They always get the
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: eight to nine game that I don't have any confidence in.
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: So then if you pick if I picked Michigan State
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: to beat North Carolina, and by the way, that line
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: would be like three and a half, that Michigan State
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: and North Carolina are not that far apart. But if
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: I pick Michigan State and then they lose Misissippi State,
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: which wouldn't shock me, then my bracket's ruined regardless. But
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: I think Baylor has a really good shot of getting
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: to the final four.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: I have a joke sounds like sounds like Colgate maybe
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: didn't floss as well this year. That's why they're efficiency dropped.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: You know, guys, it's an audio medium, so you know,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: if anybody wants to laugh, Tito is coming after me
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: in the comments here. Good lord, that's terrible. You know what,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's time. I think it's time to transition.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: To some great wisdom to.
• 35:43
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  Speaker 1: favorites one twenty. I mean, look, you can find a
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  Speaker 1: lot about putting your head up a cow's ass, remember that,
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  Speaker 1: Tommy boy.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're getting there. Hey, I tell you what.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: You can take a good look at a butcher's ass
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  Speaker 1: by sticking your head up there.
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: But wouldn't you rather take his word for it? What?
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: All right, here's another great stat stock and I'm gonna
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna set you I'm going to set you up.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Everyone's been talking about this, but I just want people
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: to be clearer. So everyone loves ken Pom. Ken Palm
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: for years has been going on twenty plus years, has
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: been using these advanced analytics that everybody who follows college
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: basketball focuses on more when it comes to power rankings
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: than just about anything else.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: I can remember being in the back of the super
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Book talking to j Cornegie about what he was looking
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: at in college basketball. You know, fifteen years ago when
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: I first heard the phrase ken Pom and how bookmakers
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: were using ken Pom to help create their point spreads.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: So ken Pom pre tournament data twenty two of the
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: last twenty four national champions in ken Pom had a
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: top eighteen adjusted offense. Twenty three of the last twenty
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: four national champs had a top thirty seven adjusted defense.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: That leaves us with seven legit title contenders. These teams
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: were all in the top categories of ken Pom adjusted
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: offense and defense. Yukon, Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Creighton, Auburn, Duke.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: This does not include, by the way, North Carolina, Iowa State, Tennessee, Marquette.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about four one and two seeds right there, Illinois, Baylor, Kentucky, Alabama, Kansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Alabama,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: three teams that Stuck mentioned earlier as sort of being
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: those all offense, no defense teams that tend to struggle
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: in the tournament. All right, So knowing that Stuck, can
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: you give me your top futures bets right now?
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: Top futures bets? I don't know mine already that I
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: haven't looked at a futures odds board, but I would
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: say my pick. I'm a stubborn man. My picked since
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: the beginning of the season has been Houston. Now about
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: I'm getting very weird vibes because I I shouldn't say
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: since the beginning of the year, but this was, you know,
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: maybe a month or two into the season. I said,
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: Houston's the best team. They should not be plus nine
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: to fifty, ten to one, and you know now they're
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: I don't know, six, six to one. About halfway through
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: the NFL season, I said Baltimore is the best team.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: They should not be ten to one. They should be
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: the favorite. And that's where they ended up, just like
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: where Houston is now, right in the same ballpark as Yukon.
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: And then they ran into Patrick Mahomes and forgot how
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: to run the ball, so.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Chose not to run the ball, by the way, chose
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: not to run the ball.
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: Or throw with play action. But look, yeah, I'm not
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: still bitter, but I still think Houston is going to
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: get this done. Now. They it's really amazing what they've done.
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: Some of their injuries and so their depth is iffy.
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: They lost Tuggler, who's just a suit. He brings super length,
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: and they're gonna miss him a bit. Now they can
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: you know, they can still get it done without them.
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: But it's a very aggressive defense. It's the best defense
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: in the country for my money. So at times they
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: can foul, and you know, they foil at a pretty
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: high rate because they're so aggressive. So you know, all
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: it takes is I don't think that there's anyone that
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: they're gonna have trouble with getting passed to the second weekend.
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: Maybe Wade Taylor for Texas A and him if he
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: goes bananas, they should get to the second weekend. But
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: you know, you play like a super talented team and
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: you get in foul trouble early with all the injuries.
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: They lost the kid to Arsenal early in the year,
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: they lost someone another contributor to after that, so their
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: depth gets really thin if they get into foul trouble early,
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: which does scare me a bit. But I trusted Sampson,
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: who's a great coach. I trust Jamal Shed who's one
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: of the best point guards in the country that plays
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: in March, and he's a guy who is not looking
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: to score all the time. And you do have a
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: scoring threat on the outside. An LJ. Cryer can get
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: red hot from three party has a deep run in
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: the tournament national title with Baylor. But Shed can just
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: he is so smart, not only in the defensive ends,
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: one of the best defensive players in the country, but
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: he facilitates. But when the team's going through a scoring drought,
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: which Houston can do it, he could turn on the scoring.
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: And he's just such a good feel for knowing when
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: he needs to be that scoring threat and when he
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: needs to be that facilitator. Their defense is always going
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: to play, even when they have an off shooting day.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: It's not an elite shooting team. They don't take great shots,
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: but they are an elite on the offensive glass, which plays,
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: and you don't. You're not overly three point reliant. So
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna trust Shed, I'm gonna trust Sampson to get
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: this done, and hopefully Yukon gets picked off before the
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: National Championship, because that would mean Houston would be the
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: best team per my Power ratings in my head as well,
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: the best team left standing. I also liked their path,
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: like if you look at who they could face in
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: the Sweet sixteen, Wisconsin or Duke, Like Wisconsin can't defend
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: at the rim, They're going to get bullied, and that's
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: Duke's biggest problem in my eyes, similar to last year.
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: You know, Tennessee. That was the big talking point going
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: into that game, and it came true that Duke couldn't
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: handle the Tennessee physicality, and this Duke team also lacks
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: in that department you saw. I think that's part of
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: the reason why they got swept by Carolina is in
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: both those games, if you watch them, they just yea,
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: Carolina looked like men versus boys at times, and on
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: the perimeter and inside they were just bowling them. That's
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: what I think will happen if the chalk holds and
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: Duke gets to Houston. So I think Houston gets to
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: the Elite eight. And then in that bottom half, who
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: do you have Texas Tech potential dangerous team If you
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: look at all the starting fives at least one hundred possessions,
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: they have one that is has the highest overall justed
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: efficiency in all of college basketball. But they have a
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: couple guys that are injured. Are they going to be
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: fully healthy? Marquette Is Tyler Kohleck fully healthy, didn't play
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: the biggest tournament, hasn't played since last month, dealing with
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: an oblique injury is their most important player. And then
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: you know Florida just lost their big men. One of
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: their most important big men. Do an injury, a brutal
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: injury if you saw it to his leg. And then
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: you have Kentucky, a team that historically you can't trust
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: because they don't play enough defense to get through six games,
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: and especially elite compeition. So I think the South is
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: a really gettable region and a good break for how
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: the draw broke for Houston. So I'm gonna say Houston.
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: I like Houston to get out of here, and I'm
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: sticking with my guns and saying Houston wins at all.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: I feel like I've come to the conclusion on my
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: final four. Are you ready? Yep, Houston. I want to
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: say Auburn, but I'm going with Yukon. I'm going with Purdue,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: and then I think.
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: Out of the rest one so far, you're really going
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: on a limb here.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: It's Chalky. Listen, by the way, you're going out of
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: the limb because it doesn't happen as often as you think,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: so it actually is kind of risky. And then out
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: of the West, I'm going with Arizona, but I'm also
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: choosing four teams, Chalky, Chad, I'm choosing four teams that
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: are in that Ken palm seven, right, and so the
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: the one I would trade out. It's Chalky Chad, but
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: also a little bit homer Chad, because I'm favoring Yukon
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: just because it's more fun for me personally and locally
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: when Yukon is advancing, because our whole little town, it
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: was Harford gets a little crazy, and the mayor mayor
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: was Harford lives down the block and her family big,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: big yukonners, so it'll be a fun time on our block.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: And Chad decided to get crazy and went with the
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: two seed in the West. I can't happen. That is
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: that is just shocking. By the way, I will say
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: a crazy stat when you're filling out your bracket, maybe
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: this is the year it happens, and it doesn't mean
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: it can't happen. But a one versus the two in
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: the elite eight has not happened since twenty nineteen. So
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: that means in any region there hasn't been a one
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: versus a two that get there. They've gone oh fifteen, Well,
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: I guess that's it wasn't a tournament. Yeah, one verse
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: two is when you phone out your bracket, you know,
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: it doesn't mean it can't happen this year it won't,
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: but you know. It shows you how chaotic these brackets get.
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: So if you see yourself with like three regions that
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: have one verse two, you might want to switch some
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: things up. It's okay to I think I do have
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: one of the regions with one verse two this year.
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: But yeah, as an Eppisode twenty nine team, when Duke
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: played Michigan State, what are you gonna say?
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: Sorry, yes, Sam, what are you going to say?
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: You're good? You know my crazy theory.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: One of the first lessons I learned from professional better
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: is you bet on a blue team in college basketball.
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: And it sounds crazy people the blue bloods, but every year.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: I fill out my bracket that way.
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: If it's two teams matched up, I go with the
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: team that wears blue.
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: Long behold. If you go through just.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: Even the last couple, I don't even thirty twenty years,
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be predominant teams that wear blue that win
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: the national title. Again, I know it sounds stupid, but
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: it's the way it works, these blue blood teams. So yeah,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: for me, keeping it simple, I go blue heavy with
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: my final four. I got you converse Arizona Duke, Creyton
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: Duke versus Yukon in the final. I'm a Duke fan, obviously,
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: people know that with Yukon win it all, repeat champs
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: like stuck said to be the first one since Florida,
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: which if you don't remember, if you're too young to remember,
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: go watch those Florida teams basically had seniors and juniors
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: on the team that could easily gone to the NBA,
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: but stayed to win the national titles.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: So we're due. We're due for a repeat champ. So
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: I'm with chat. I like. I like the fun of
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: betting the Yukon that win it All this year.
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: One that's the craziest thing I've ever heard.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: But two blue bloods.
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: But two that's who that pick a random way to
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: fill out your bracket and you'll have just as good
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: a chance as someone who actually follows the sport. That's
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: just how it works. Can but trivia, can you name
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: the two champions over the past twenty years that did
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: not wear a blue It's only been.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: Two, but Baylor's won yep, And then we will Louisville.
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Louisville in twenty thirteen, which technically was vacated. And
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: by the way, chadlu people you mentioned, uh well, I'll
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: have to check back on the against the spread record
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: of blue teams over the best and just stay away
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: if it's blue verse blue. But you mentioned Jake Cornegae Legend,
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: Jay Uh and Ken Palm. I know a professional better.
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: When Ken Palm was first starting to come out, that
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: offered to pay Ken Pom to go away.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Wow, no way. Yeah, well it was too much of
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: an edge, and now everybody knows it. Apparently everybody knows
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: Ken Pomp except the Instateable Thing Selection Committee, who does
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: not have any idea what Ken Pom is, Otherwise they
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: would be seeding these teams a little bit differently. Stuckey
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: BBOC host Extraordinary Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. You got
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: two weeks, man, two weeks to hunker down, close and epic.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: What is that eight month run from the beginning of
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: college football to the end of college basketball? Thanks for
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: coming on The Favorites podcast, Buddy, Good.
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: Luck in the tournament everybody.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: As a reminder for the second time, catch every episode
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
• 50:18
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