Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Trump issues fresh threats to Iran as search continues for missing U.S. pilot

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Trump issues fresh threats to Iran as search continues for missing U.S. pilot · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: And the US President is in a fiery mood today,
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  Speaker 1: issuing yet another threat to Iran. Donald Trump took to
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  Speaker 1: social media just a short time ago demanding that the
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  Speaker 1: Strait of horm Moves be reopened by Monday, saying this,
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  Speaker 1: Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a
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  Speaker 1: deal or reopen up the Hormu Strait. Time is running out,
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  Speaker 1: forty eight hours before all hell will rain down on them.
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  Speaker 1: Glory be to God.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 1: This ultimatum follows the April sixth deadline Trump had given
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  Speaker 1: Iran to reach that deal or to restore access to
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  Speaker 1: the critical waterway that carries about twenty percent of the
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  Speaker 1: world's oil. So, while the President is issuing threats the
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  Speaker 1: US military, it continues in its race against the clock
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  Speaker 1: to find a missing crew member after his fighter jet
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  Speaker 1: was shot down in a remote area of southwestern Iran.
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  Speaker 1: The F fifteen to E Strike Eagle was down yesterday.
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  Speaker 1: The pilot was ejected and rescued, but the other airmen
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  Speaker 1: remains missing. Iranian state media announced officials are offering a
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  Speaker 1: reward to end anyone who captures them and turns them
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  Speaker 1: over alive. And around the same time, in a separate incident,
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  Speaker 1: you can see this video verified by AFP, which appears
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  Speaker 1: to show people on the ground in Iran firing at
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  Speaker 1: US aircraft overhead. An A ten Warhog attack plane involved
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  Speaker 1: in the fighter jet crew rescue mission crashed near the
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  Speaker 1: Strait of Hormuz, and two US helicopters were also struck
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  Speaker 1: by hostile fire. The crew in that situation were injured,
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  Speaker 1: but they did make it out alive. So let's dig
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  Speaker 1: deeper into that and other elements of the war. We
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  Speaker 1: have reached Jonathan Schroden. He's the chief research officer for
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  Speaker 1: the Center for Naval Analysis and independent nonprofit research organization.
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  Speaker 1: Mister Sheridan, thank you so much for making time for us.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for having me.
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  Speaker 1: Mister Shrodan. I'm taking a look at your background, and
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  Speaker 1: you've got so much experience and knowledge on this subject,
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  Speaker 1: so I'm so glad we were able to connect with
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  Speaker 1: you today, specifically on the issue of special operations, and
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  Speaker 1: the rescue mission would certainly be one for this airman.
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  Speaker 1: He's been there a day. I just spoke with another
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  Speaker 1: an expert in this field and he said, it's good
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  Speaker 1: that it's now night again in Iran. Why would that
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  Speaker 1: be an advantage.
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  Speaker 2: Well, the pilots in the early part of what they
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  Speaker 2: get trained to do when they find themselves in this situation,
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  Speaker 2: which is there's a four letter acronym they use. It's
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  Speaker 2: just pronounced SE here it goes survive, escape resist or sorry, survive, evade,
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  Speaker 2: resist escape. And so he's not captured yet, thankfully, which
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  Speaker 2: means he is in the survive and evade phase of
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  Speaker 2: the training that these pilots get when they find themselves
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  Speaker 2: in this situation. So at nightfall is good if you're
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  Speaker 2: trying to survive an evade being captured, because it makes
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  Speaker 2: it obviously harder for people locally to detect you as
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  Speaker 2: you're trying to move around, find a good better places
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  Speaker 2: to hide out, find places to try and communicate to
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  Speaker 2: you know, to the US forces looking for you where
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  Speaker 2: you are. Those types of things are just better done
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  Speaker 2: at night than during the day.
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  Speaker 1: And the only reason we believe that he has not
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  Speaker 1: been captured at this stage is because the Iranians haven't
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  Speaker 1: said anything about it.
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  Speaker 2: Well, neither side has claimed to have identified where this
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  Speaker 2: particular crew member is at this time. I presume that
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  Speaker 2: if either side were to get hold of him that
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  Speaker 2: they would more or less immediately announce that they have
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  Speaker 2: done so, because it's in the interest of both sides
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  Speaker 2: to make that publicly known very very quickly.
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  Speaker 1: How would the American military go about finding this.
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  Speaker 2: Personel, Yeah, so you've probably seen videos that have been
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  Speaker 2: circulating online already of various helicopters C one thirty aircraft,
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  Speaker 2: the A ten Warthog that was apparently also the one
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  Speaker 2: that crashed, whose pilot has also been recovered. All of
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  Speaker 2: those aircraft are the types of aircraft that would be
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  Speaker 2: involved in what they call combat search and rescue a
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  Speaker 2: CESAR type mission, which is what this is. So you've
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  Speaker 2: seen videos of those aircraft flying around. They're obviously trying
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  Speaker 2: to locate the weapons systems officer is the type of
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  Speaker 2: crew member that's still at large, so trying to find
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  Speaker 2: that wso see if they can locate him or at
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  Speaker 2: least detect signs of his you know, evasion from Ranian
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  Speaker 2: forces on the ground, so that they could eventually set
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  Speaker 2: up a rescue for him. And if they get those
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  Speaker 2: types of identifying marks or some type of you know
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  Speaker 2: communication from him to lead them to him, then you
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  Speaker 2: would see, you know, an insertion of US forces likely
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  Speaker 2: using similar types of aircraft to try and bring about
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  Speaker 2: that type of rescue.
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  Speaker 1: Mister Sheridan, would this impact the way the US military
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  Speaker 1: moves forward in terms of where it's targeting, who it's targeting,
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  Speaker 1: because there's a possible that an American could be injured.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, they certainly wouldn't want to do strikes, air
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  Speaker 2: strikes in the area that they might suspect he's, you know,
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  Speaker 2: trying to evade in for exactly the reason you described.
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  Speaker 2: You don't want to inadvertently kill one of your own.
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  Speaker 2: And I read somewhere on the news this morning that
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  Speaker 2: Israel had agreed to pause its operations in this area
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  Speaker 2: as well for the same reason. So yes, I mean,
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  Speaker 2: I assume that they have established a sort of no
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  Speaker 2: strike zone at this point while they're conducting these combat
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  Speaker 2: search and rescue operations looking for this down and crew member.
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  Speaker 1: The Iranians have taken to mocking the US administration, specifically
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and they're saying that what went from a
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  Speaker 1: mission for regime changes now about finding a singular personnel member.
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  Speaker 1: I wonder so if the Iranian regime finds this airman
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  Speaker 1: first and then says we will return him safely if
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  Speaker 1: you end this war what does the administration do.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I don't think the administration would end all of
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  Speaker 2: its combat operations based on, you know, one prisoner of war.
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  Speaker 2: That's usually not how these things go. It would certainly
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  Speaker 2: complicate things though, when it comes to any attempt to
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  Speaker 2: negotiate a settlement to the war, because now, if the
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  Speaker 2: Iranians capture this gentleman, and I certainly hope for his
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  Speaker 2: sake and his family's sake that they don't. But if
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  Speaker 2: they do, that just gives them another point of strategic
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  Speaker 2: leverage that they can use in negotiations with the United States.
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  Speaker 2: They now have effectively, or they would have another card
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  Speaker 2: in their hand to play in those types of negotiations.
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  Speaker 2: So it would make it harder in that regard.
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  Speaker 1: While the military is still looking for the service member,
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  Speaker 1: the President hasn't commented on it publicly, and he's come
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  Speaker 1: out today on truth Social showing another threat to Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Does that further jeopardize the mission to save this.
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  Speaker 2: Individual, Well, I don't know that it impinges on the
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  Speaker 2: tactical aspect of the mission to try and recover him.
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  Speaker 2: The statements coming out of you know, the President's True
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  Speaker 2: Social Account, the White House, the Pentagon, over the last
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  Speaker 2: week or so, I think have been all relatively aimed
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  Speaker 2: at what you could describe as coercive diplomacy. Right, they
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  Speaker 2: clearly want negotiations with the Iranian government. It's unclear whether
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  Speaker 2: those types of talks are actually taking place or to
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  Speaker 2: what extent, but clearly they desire a negotiated settlement to
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  Speaker 2: end this. And you know, they're making a lot of
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  Speaker 2: threats and surging forces to the region, and my read
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  Speaker 2: of that is they're trying to generate more leverage on
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  Speaker 2: the US side to use in coercive diplomatic negotiations with
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian government.
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  Speaker 1: Jonathan Schrodon very good to speak to you today, sir.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for having me our pleasure.