Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Surprise Rate Cut Possible?📈Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: Things may be changing with the FED and could we
- 0:08Speaker 1: get a surprise rate cut today. We're going to break
- 0:10Speaker 1: it down for you. My name is Paul Barron. Welcome
- 0:12Speaker 1: back into tech path. Let's get going. I do want
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- 0:59Speaker 1: a couple of points I want to hit on first
- 1:02Speaker 1: and The biggest one right here, I think is the
- 1:04Speaker 1: bullish news that continues to roll out of Wall Street.
- 1:07Speaker 1: JP Morgan right now says US stocks have escaped a
- 1:10Speaker 1: black hole and have room to move a little bit higher.
- 1:13Speaker 1: And this is coming from a lot of analysts that
- 1:15Speaker 1: have already started to move in this direction. And I
- 1:18Speaker 1: think the real question is if we do get a
- 1:20Speaker 1: rate cut, is it a bad thing that could be
- 1:23Speaker 1: happening if Powell decides that and the Fed decide that
- 1:27Speaker 1: a rate cut is in order. Further into this, if
- 1:30Speaker 1: you look at where what's happening right now in terms
- 1:32Speaker 1: of investment, foreign investors are pouring money into the US stocks. Again,
- 1:36Speaker 1: equity funds have attracted almost a billion and a half
- 1:39Speaker 1: in that inflows over the past month and since February.
- 1:43Speaker 1: You look at that compared to European investors who've piled
- 1:46Speaker 1: back into US equities. And this, of course is even
- 1:50Speaker 1: during the trade war. So has this played out in
- 1:54Speaker 1: a benefit for Trump's policies? We'll see this is going
- 1:59Speaker 1: to be watching the data of this flow in the
- 2:02Speaker 1: next few months to determine how this is going to
- 2:04Speaker 1: play out. Let's go over to a clip real quick,
- 2:06Speaker 1: because This is Juran Powell talking about the framework and
- 2:10Speaker 1: the guides in which they're going to build around this. Now,
- 2:13Speaker 1: I don't know if this is reading between the lines
- 2:15Speaker 1: of what he's trying to put in here, but listen
- 2:17Speaker 1: to the clip and then we'll talk about it.
- 2:19Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 2:20Speaker 3: Keeping longer run inflation expectations anchored was a driving force
- 2:24Speaker 3: behind establishing the two percent target in the twenty twelve framework.
- 2:28Speaker 3: Maintaining that anchor was a major consideration behind the changes
- 2:31Speaker 3: in twenty twenty. Anchored expectations are critical to everything we do,
- 2:35Speaker 3: and we remain fully committed to the two percent target today.
- 2:39Speaker 3: In the current review, the Committee is engaged in discussions
- 2:42Speaker 3: about what we have learned from the experience of the
- 2:44Speaker 3: past five years. We planned a complete consideration of specific
- 2:48Speaker 3: changes to the consensus statement in coming months. We're paying
- 2:52Speaker 3: particular attention to the twenty twenty changes as we consider
- 2:55Speaker 3: discrete but important updates reflecting what we have learned about
- 2:58Speaker 3: the economy and the way the changes were interpreted by
- 3:01Speaker 3: the public. We may be entering a period of more
- 3:04Speaker 3: frequent and potentially more persistent supply shocks, a difficult challenge
- 3:07Speaker 3: for the economy and for central banks. While our policy
- 3:11Speaker 3: rate is currently well above the lower bound, in recent
- 3:14Speaker 3: decades we have cut the rate by about five hundred
- 3:16Speaker 3: basis points when the economy is in recession. Although getting
- 3:19Speaker 3: stuck at the lower bound is no longer the base case,
- 3:22Speaker 3: it is only prudent that the framework continue to address
- 3:24Speaker 3: that risk.
- 3:26Speaker 1: All right, So you can see that they're starting to,
- 3:29Speaker 1: at least in my opinion, starting to create some optics
- 3:31Speaker 1: around the potential of restructuring. How the FED is looking
- 3:36Speaker 1: at the current economy. Obviously their goal toward two percent
- 3:39Speaker 1: in terms of inflation, which seems to be happening right now. Now,
- 3:42Speaker 1: there's some other things that are playing into this when
- 3:45Speaker 1: you look at the pressure on not only banks but
- 3:48Speaker 1: the FED, and I think in general, how investments are
- 3:52Speaker 1: going forward. Here's Trump's administration preparing the biggest bank capital rollback.
- 3:57Speaker 2: This is since two thousand and eight.
- 3:58Speaker 1: If you guys remember two thousand and eight, that was
- 4:00Speaker 1: the savings loan debacle that happened, caused a massive economic
- 4:04Speaker 1: reset pretty much within the real estate market. A lot
- 4:07Speaker 1: of restrictions will put on banks.
- 4:09Speaker 2: If you look at what.
- 4:09Speaker 1: They're saying here, Trump administration is moving toward with a
- 4:13Speaker 1: sweeping plan to loosen the toughest capital requirements imposed on
- 4:16Speaker 1: US bank since the two thousand and eight financial collapse.
- 4:20Speaker 1: Penalizing banks for holding low risk assets like treasuries undermines
- 4:24Speaker 1: their ability to support market liquidity. So what he's getting
- 4:27Speaker 1: at here, and we'll get into this, what Pall is
- 4:30Speaker 1: saying is that the banks are too conservative right now
- 4:34Speaker 1: and if we don't get the banks active in the
- 4:35Speaker 1: market real estate loans, business loans, et cetera, starting to
- 4:39Speaker 1: risk market liquidity, that is a problem for economic growth.
- 4:43Speaker 1: That's the thing that, of course, the administration is trying
- 4:46Speaker 1: to stimulate going forward. Pale also signaled that we need
- 4:50Speaker 1: to work on treasury market structure, and this is part
- 4:53Speaker 1: of the answer that can be what he says, I
- 4:55Speaker 1: think reducing the calibration of the supplemental levery tratio.
- 5:00Speaker 2: So simply put, he's.
- 5:01Speaker 1: Looking at right now taking a concept around leverage against
- 5:06Speaker 1: where we are in terms of the market positions and
- 5:08Speaker 1: are and is the FED in a position where ratecut
- 5:12Speaker 1: could be coming in. So a lot of people are
- 5:14Speaker 1: critiquing this, and mainly they're looking at it is that
- 5:18Speaker 1: banks would be more exposed here. I don't know do
- 5:21Speaker 1: you guys think that banks, if they were to inject
- 5:24Speaker 1: back into the economy, that would obviously create more potential jobs, businesses,
- 5:31Speaker 1: real estate, loans, et cetera. If they injected back in
- 5:34Speaker 1: as opposed to setting back and just holding US treasuries,
- 5:38Speaker 1: how would that affect your life? Let me know in
- 5:40Speaker 1: the comments down below if you think that would be
- 5:41Speaker 1: a good thing for banks to continue on on the
- 5:44Speaker 1: conservative route or no, they need to get active in
- 5:46Speaker 1: the business if the grants relief on sovereign debt or
- 5:50Speaker 1: other countries might face all this calls to do the
- 5:53Speaker 1: same for Eurozone bonds and UK gilts. This could trigger
- 5:57Speaker 1: a new imbalance in the international system. And again that's
- 6:00Speaker 1: the point that I think the administration is trying to
- 6:02Speaker 1: get to, is that they're trying to balance what's happening
- 6:04Speaker 1: here in the US versus what's going on in Europe
- 6:08Speaker 1: in terms of potential of investment and growth in just
- 6:12Speaker 1: general growth like GDP, the COBEC is coming in with
- 6:16Speaker 1: right now the PPI inflation which is falling to two
- 6:19Speaker 1: point four. This was below the expectations, so pretty much
- 6:21Speaker 1: in line. This is more of a validator from the
- 6:24Speaker 1: previous print. We got last week on traditional inflation. The
- 6:28Speaker 1: key here is that everything is starting to slow down now.
- 6:31Speaker 1: Granted Palace said this, Minnie, analysts have said this is
- 6:34Speaker 1: that there may be a lagging effect here on these
- 6:38Speaker 1: tariffs because they were held in position that we might
- 6:41Speaker 1: see inflation bump a little bit on its next print
- 6:44Speaker 1: or two. So be on the lookout for that as
- 6:46Speaker 1: we start to see that play out. Now here's the
- 6:49Speaker 1: real question. Here's CNBC breaking down whether they should cut
- 6:53Speaker 1: or not cut.
- 6:53Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 6:55Speaker 4: You're talking April April second guitarists were announced, April ninth,
- 7:00Speaker 4: began to be implemented, then they were all changed again.
- 7:03Speaker 4: For the most part, companies have about a little more
- 7:06Speaker 4: than three and a half months of inventory on hand,
- 7:09Speaker 4: so the stuff that's being sold is probably largely pre
- 7:14Speaker 4: tariff inventory. Large So people in the markets want to
- 7:18Speaker 4: look at the data, want to see the impact. The
- 7:19Speaker 4: IMPACT's not going to show up for a few months.
- 7:21Speaker 5: What they were worried about suddenly they abandoned their growth concerns.
- 7:25Speaker 5: I mean, it just seems clear to me if the
- 7:28Speaker 5: inflation numbers are coming in a little bit weaker and
- 7:32Speaker 5: we're waiting for these growth effects, which are also lagged.
- 7:35Speaker 2: Don't you think growth effects are lagged too? Why not
- 7:38Speaker 2: preemptively do it? Absolutely, why not preemptively do it?
- 7:42Speaker 4: Because easy money is not a substitute for a shortage
- 7:48Speaker 4: of good And it may work out like you imagine
- 7:50Speaker 4: it workout. So it may work out like I'm forecasting.
- 7:53Speaker 4: The truth of the matter is, we don't know, and
- 7:56Speaker 4: we don't even know what the tariff rates are going
- 7:58Speaker 4: to be at this point because we're still in this
- 8:01Speaker 4: renegotiation phase. The unemployment rates four point two percent, which
- 8:05Speaker 4: is right on top of where the Fed things full
- 8:07Speaker 4: employment is an inflation is too high. And yes, April,
- 8:10Speaker 4: which is gonna be very noisy month, it is a
- 8:13Speaker 4: bit better than we thought, but it's too soon.
- 8:17Speaker 6: And I totally understand wanting to wait until all of
- 8:20Speaker 6: this passes through the economy and we can see exactly
- 8:23Speaker 6: what terris have done to the economy. But by the
- 8:25Speaker 6: time you wait, this is wait long term COVID. If
- 8:27Speaker 6: you just wait and wait and wait, you will be
- 8:29Speaker 6: too late.
- 8:31Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 8:31Speaker 1: Well, and you know that's the great name that mister
- 8:34Speaker 1: Trump has for mister Powell, and that is too late Powell,
- 8:36Speaker 1: And that may play out here. I would agree maybe
- 8:40Speaker 1: with the analyst on the CNBC side, is that it's
- 8:43Speaker 1: very clear that I think the at least when you
- 8:46Speaker 1: look of trying to skate to where the puck is
- 8:48Speaker 1: going to be, Palell is not necessarily doing that just yet.
- 8:52Speaker 1: And I think the market kind of sees this coming,
- 8:55Speaker 1: is that there is a little bit of an open
- 8:57Speaker 1: window here. And even Larry Fink talked about this, We're
- 8:59Speaker 1: going to have any days of volatility.
- 9:01Speaker 2: I agree with that.
- 9:02Speaker 1: And then after that, if the rate cuts are not
- 9:05Speaker 1: in position at least looming up to that, and pal
- 9:07Speaker 1: hasn't you know, possibly telegraphed that to a certain extent,
- 9:11Speaker 1: that's when I think we would see a problem in
- 9:13Speaker 1: the economy and that could.
- 9:15Speaker 2: Really spoil a crypto bull.
- 9:17Speaker 1: Run in the fall. So you guys need to think
- 9:19Speaker 1: about that. This is a very key thing right now.
- 9:22Speaker 1: One other thing I want to get to when you
- 9:24Speaker 1: look at markets is how many of the money managers
- 9:27Speaker 1: are responding to what's happening, and only crypto, but in
- 9:30Speaker 1: general even tech. Obviously, one of the biggest innovation funds
- 9:33Speaker 1: out there is the ARC Fund, and that's being led
- 9:36Speaker 1: by Kathy Wood her analysts. I should say the ARC
- 9:40Speaker 1: analysts now are saying that we predict big moves ahead
- 9:44Speaker 1: for both coinbase and Tesla, and I'll show you the
- 9:46Speaker 1: ARC fund here in a second. But if you look
- 9:48Speaker 1: at a couple of points here, Tesla, Palunteer, Coinbase, and
- 9:51Speaker 1: of course Shopify, those are the big ones that they're
- 9:53Speaker 1: banking on. And I'm going to show you guys their
- 9:56Speaker 1: position right now. Here's the roll up of these are
- 10:00Speaker 1: Tesla leading number one out of ten percent way, Coinbase
- 10:03Speaker 1: right behind it at seven point.
- 10:04Speaker 2: Five to four rowblocks, Roku.
- 10:06Speaker 1: The one I still think is the hidden gym might
- 10:09Speaker 1: be robin Hood, and there's many reasons for that with
- 10:12Speaker 1: everything that we're dealing with, but I think the key
- 10:15Speaker 1: here for Robinhood is their ability to grow with the
- 10:20Speaker 1: next generation investor, and I think that could play into it.
- 10:23Speaker 1: The fact that she's invested in both Robinhood and coinbase,
- 10:26Speaker 1: you know, kind of covering both sides of the plate,
- 10:28Speaker 1: which I think is good. Now, all of that being said,
- 10:31Speaker 1: the issue with Coinbase that is hitting right now is
- 10:35Speaker 1: they just got nailed with a cyber attack, and this
- 10:37Speaker 1: of course is bad for them.
- 10:39Speaker 2: Could it even kick.
- 10:40Speaker 1: Them out of the S and P five hundred. I
- 10:42Speaker 1: don't know, but this is what they got right now.
- 10:45Speaker 1: If you guys already know this name and address, phone, email, masked,
- 10:50Speaker 1: social security so it's last four digits masked bank accounts,
- 10:53Speaker 1: so they're probably The way that this will work is
- 10:56Speaker 1: if you don't know what social engineering is, pay attention
- 10:59Speaker 1: to that. This is where people call you and act
- 11:01Speaker 1: like they know what they're talking about and get you
- 11:04Speaker 1: to offer up information.
- 11:06Speaker 2: Don't do that.
- 11:07Speaker 1: Always double check question everything out there, whether it's email, text, phone,
- 11:12Speaker 1: does not matter. Question everything always, and double check everything
- 11:17Speaker 1: in relationship, especially.
- 11:18Speaker 2: To any of your exchanges.
- 11:19Speaker 1: And let me know in the comments if you had
- 11:21Speaker 1: to trust someone right now with crypto, would you trust
- 11:25Speaker 1: your bank number one, coinbase number two or Robinhood number
- 11:31Speaker 1: three and number four. We'll just keep it as DeFi
- 11:34Speaker 1: so one, two, three, four, just put your number in
- 11:36Speaker 1: the one, your bank two, Coinbase three, Robinhood four. Let
- 11:41Speaker 1: me know if you would go the defile route and
- 11:44Speaker 1: kind of control your own destiny. I want to go
- 11:46Speaker 1: to another strategy that's going around right now, and that
- 11:49Speaker 1: is how to play the bitcoinio scenario. And of course
- 11:53Speaker 1: you could go the ETF route. You could go direct
- 11:56Speaker 1: exposure some people maybe if they're new to crypto or
- 11:58Speaker 1: aren't ready to do that just yet. Or you could
- 12:01Speaker 1: go in and bet on a company that's really creating
- 12:05Speaker 1: infrastructure around that, such as Strategy.
- 12:07Speaker 2: Listen to this analyst right here. Take a look.
- 12:10Speaker 7: For decades, you usually long the market and then short
- 12:14Speaker 7: a name against it that creates the natural arbitrage in
- 12:17Speaker 7: and the hedge. There's bitcoin one hundred and three thousand. So
- 12:20Speaker 7: your long Bitcoin, your short micro Strategy, and you have
- 12:23Speaker 7: been for a good while.
- 12:25Speaker 8: Good while you're on and off for the last couple
- 12:26Speaker 8: of years.
- 12:27Speaker 7: Why so, because it's so levered to the price, short
- 12:30Speaker 7: the spread.
- 12:30Speaker 8: So that's the important thing that your viewers need to understand.
- 12:33Speaker 8: I don't know where bitcoin's going one hundred thousand, a million,
- 12:35Speaker 8: ten thousand, I don't know. I don't think anybody else knows.
- 12:38Speaker 8: But what I do know is it's generally profitable to
- 12:41Speaker 8: short one dollar for two and a half dollars or
- 12:43Speaker 8: three dollars. And if you look at where micro Strategy
- 12:47Speaker 8: and now more ominously some of the copycat companies that
- 12:49Speaker 8: are now raising lots of money are doing, is they
- 12:52Speaker 8: are basically selling retail investors the idea that we are
- 12:55Speaker 8: going to buy bitcoin in a corporate structure because of
- 12:58Speaker 8: what micro Strategy has done, you should us at a
- 13:00Speaker 8: similar premium, and therefore earnings are created by the difference
- 13:04Speaker 8: between what new investors are paying what the net asset
- 13:06Speaker 8: value is. But it's ridiculous. And so what we're doing
- 13:09Speaker 8: is we're doing exactly what micro Strategy and Michael Sailor
- 13:11Speaker 8: are doing. We're selling micro Strategy stock and buying bitcoin
- 13:14Speaker 8: and basically buying something for a dollar selling it for
- 13:17Speaker 8: two and a half dollars.
- 13:20Speaker 1: All right, So I'm gonna say this really straightforward. I
- 13:23Speaker 1: don't agree with his model.
- 13:25Speaker 7: Now.
- 13:25Speaker 2: Granted for me, I.
- 13:27Speaker 1: Would just get exposure directly to bitcoin anyway. But if
- 13:30Speaker 1: you are looking at hedging and you're trying to figure
- 13:32Speaker 1: out I want to buy or I at least have
- 13:34Speaker 1: exposure to bitcoin, but I'm not ready to buy bitcoin,
- 13:36Speaker 1: or I'm not ready to go into an ETF, then
- 13:38Speaker 1: Strategy is probably your bet. If you look at what
- 13:41Speaker 1: they're doing right now, Microsoft is bitcoin, They're premium under
- 13:45Speaker 1: pressure right now. This course's ETFs are getting a lot
- 13:47Speaker 1: more popular, and that'll be the question mark. Do ETFs
- 13:50Speaker 1: kind of eat this up. One thing I want to
- 13:52Speaker 1: hit on here is this is being largely fueled by
- 13:56Speaker 1: leverage and a narrative driven by retail investors. A step
- 14:00Speaker 1: back and think about that for a second, all right,
- 14:02Speaker 1: just instead of Bitcoin, throw the word AI in there
- 14:06Speaker 1: and think about that. It's being you know, by narrative
- 14:09Speaker 1: and leverage of a what's happening within the enthusiasms around
- 14:14Speaker 1: the market. Now, granted there is some technology there, but
- 14:16Speaker 1: again it's constantly changing. Bitcoin is a little bit different.
- 14:20Speaker 1: Channels's comments come after micro strategy has served more than
- 14:23Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty percent in the last year, So
- 14:25Speaker 1: if this guy was betting on that, it didn't turn
- 14:28Speaker 1: out well for it. The other point I want to
- 14:30Speaker 1: hit on right here is that if Bitcoin drops sharp, sharply, massed,
- 14:33Speaker 1: obviously strategy would face risk like debt, stress, dilution, more
- 14:37Speaker 1: impairment losses, much like anything. I mean, if you look
- 14:40Speaker 1: at the markets right now, what happened to Nvidia when
- 14:43Speaker 1: we started to see tariff imposed, what we saw with
- 14:46Speaker 1: coinbased stock just here recently after a data breach. All
- 14:50Speaker 1: these kind of things are going to hit markets and
- 14:53Speaker 1: scenarios playing out within how you're investing The key is
- 14:57Speaker 1: are you paying attention. If you're paying attention, you're okay,
- 15:00Speaker 1: because it's also going to get hit. Bitcoin's going to
- 15:02Speaker 1: get hit with a no rate cut or more pressure
- 15:05Speaker 1: on inflation. Those kind of things are all macro environments
- 15:09Speaker 1: and you know, situations that you guys should be paying
- 15:11Speaker 1: attention to anyway. So keep that in mind as you're betting.
- 15:15Speaker 1: For me, it's bitcoin direct. If you're going to go
- 15:17Speaker 1: with bitcoin or all coins, I feel like that might
- 15:20Speaker 1: be the better route, depending on how much your risk
- 15:22Speaker 1: tolerance is. So think about those things. It's important right
- 15:25Speaker 1: now because we're getting ready to roll into the next
- 15:28Speaker 1: phase of innovation and that's going to center around stable coins. Now,
- 15:32Speaker 1: your of course is eleanor is talking about something that's
- 15:34Speaker 1: kind of interesting. It's the big tech language of page
- 15:37Speaker 1: two in the Genius Act. Now, there was a statement
- 15:42Speaker 1: and a video that we did yesterday that is really
- 15:46Speaker 1: referencing this right here, and that is the idea, the
- 15:51Speaker 1: idea that meta who needs a stable coin potentially would
- 15:57Speaker 1: maybe look at Ripple as an acquis target. Now you
- 16:02Speaker 1: got to think about this, guys, because I feel like
- 16:04Speaker 1: we are in a position right now. First of all,
- 16:06Speaker 1: we're going I'm gonna give you a little bit of insight.
- 16:07Speaker 1: We're going to do a part two to that video
- 16:10Speaker 1: that we did yesterday. If you didn't get it, go
- 16:12Speaker 1: back and watch it and you'll see where we're coming from.
- 16:14Speaker 2: There's a lot of indicators there.
- 16:16Speaker 1: But the big deal that came out on this is
- 16:19Speaker 1: that big tech is now going to not be able
- 16:23Speaker 1: to go in and be participating around what's happening within
- 16:27Speaker 1: the Genius Bill, especially when it most likely comes to
- 16:31Speaker 1: stable coins. Now, if they get that through, then that
- 16:34Speaker 1: means I think about this because I'm kind of concerned
- 16:37Speaker 1: whether it's going to be big tech or could you
- 16:40Speaker 1: consider also big finance in that because now you've got
- 16:43Speaker 1: black Rock, JP, Morgan Banks, et cetera. Are they precluding
- 16:48Speaker 1: a whole industry from becoming involved in the financial industry.
- 16:52Speaker 1: Very interesting times right now on Capitol Hill as they
- 16:55Speaker 1: start to push this through. All Right, you guys, if
- 16:57Speaker 1: you're not in the diamond circle, get in on that.
- 16:59Speaker 1: We're going to see a lot happening in the next
- 17:00Speaker 1: few weeks. If you have not subscribed to the show
- 17:02Speaker 1: right now is your time hit subscribe right now, Join
- 17:06Speaker 1: that diamond circle and follow me on X.
- 17:08Speaker 2: Those are the three things you can.
- 17:10Speaker 1: Do for all the work we do out here, it's
- 17:12Speaker 1: just at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time, right
- 17:14Speaker 1: here on Techpath.