Latest / The Fourcast / Ukraine Russia war: will Putin really accept Trump's deal?

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Ukraine Russia war: will Putin really accept Trump's deal? · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
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So Ukraine has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire, the American
0:05
defence and intelligence is flowing again into Ukrainian
0:09
defence forces and everyone is waiting to see what Vladimir
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Putin does. The phrase everyone is using
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from Washington to London to European capitals is the ball is
0:20
in the Russian court. But what's likely to happen?
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What's it likely to mean? And will a ceasefire lead to a
0:27
peace? Joining me from Kiev, the
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Ukrainian capital, our international editor, Lindsay
0:32
Hills. Lindsay, there's there's lots
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that's confusing about this in that you would have thought in
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the past that if the Ukrainians were told to freeze the lines,
0:43
having lost 20% of their territory, they would throw
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their hands up in horror. Yet they seem to be pleased at
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this. Can can you explain what people
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are thinking and saying? The most important thing about
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this is the rapprochement between UK, Ukraine and the
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United States. That is what this is all about
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because after that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office
1:05
between President Zelensky and President Trump, and then the
1:09
way that the US cut off intelligence and military aid to
1:14
Ukraine, the Ukrainians knew that they had to scramble to get
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back into the Americans good books.
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And that is what this shows. Because the fact that there was
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a joint statement by Ukraine and the US saying they both agreed
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that there should be this 30 day ceasefire and that it was now up
1:35
to the Russians to reciprocate and up to the Americans to get
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the Russians to agree to it. That in the cliche that Marco
1:46
Rubio used puts the ball in the Russians court.
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And that is exactly where the Ukrainians want it to be at the
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moment. Do you think the Ukrainians
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think this process is actually going to lead to a ceasefire?
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I think that they're not quite sure.
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What they want is for it to become clear to the Americans
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that Russia is the obstacle, not them.
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That is how they see it. They say, look, we want an end
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to this war, but we have various terms, one of which is we want
2:21
our country back. We want our sovereignty.
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We want our children back, the children who were abducted by
2:29
the Russians and are being brought up in Russia under
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Russian rather than Ukrainian names.
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We want our prisoners of war back.
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There are all sorts of things that they want.
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But yes, they too want an end to the war.
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Whereas they think that President Trump has
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misunderstood the situation. And this is, of course, what
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President Zelensky was trying to explain in the Oval Office,
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which went so disastrously wrong.
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They think that what the Americans need to understand is
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that the problem is Russia and the fact that Russia wants to
3:02
control Ukraine and not to allow it to have its own sovereignty.
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So that is what they are hoping, that this will lead to, a
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clarifying moment that I think they think is more likely than a
3:15
ceasefire, at least one which might endure.
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From the Trump point of view, they will portray this as a
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enormous victory for Trump thinking because they will say,
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well, the trouble with the Ukrainians was they didn't
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really want peace. They weren't serious about
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peace. That's what that showdown in the
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Oval Office revealed and that we needed to bring them to heel by
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showing them just how tough we were.
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And now they have changed their minds and they are serious about
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peace. And that's why we can re engage.
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Do you think there has been any change in Ukrainian thinking
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since that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office?
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I mean, did it work in any way from the Trump point of view?
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Well, there's certainly been a change in thinking in terms of
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understanding how to deal with this American administration.
4:03
Absolutely. They totally realised that the
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way they were trying to deal with the administration,
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particularly at the highest level, was a disaster and and
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would not work at all. Now in terms of what they
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actually want for Ukraine, which is an enduring peace with
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security guarantees, which will stop the Russians coming back
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and distorting Ukrainian politics, controlling Ukraine,
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making demands to keep Ukrainian territory, none of that has
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changed. But how you get to where they
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want to go and how you handle this administration, that has
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completely changed. And in the short term, I suppose
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you could say that the what should we call it, the Trump
4:51
Doctrine has worked because they are working alongside the
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Americans now. And they are also extremely
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relieved that the Americans have agreed to switch back on the
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intelligence, including the including the Max, our satellite
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system, and get military aid back on back on track again.
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I suppose what I mean is, you know, the, the, the balls Trump
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analysis is they didn't want peace.
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They weren't prepared to compromise.
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Now they are. Is that a change that has really
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happened, or did Ukraine always know that in the final analysis,
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there would be a compromise on territory?
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We are nowhere near that. And that again, I think is one
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of the things which was misunderstood when when
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President Zelensky said to the Europeans that the end of the
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war is a long way off. And President Trump was furious
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about that because he wants to think that the end of the war is
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going to happen very quickly because that's what he decrees,
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you know, as if he had a magic wand and say, woof, it's all
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over. The Ukrainians understand very
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well that a 30 day ceasefire, even if it were to happen, is
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really not a lot. Both sides actually would rather
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like a 30 day ceasefire. I think give the soldiers a bit
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of a rest, you know, and then you can get preparing and
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planning for the further fighting that's to come during
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the fighting season, which is in the spring.
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It hasn't changed anything on what the Ukrainians want in the
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long term. Now, there are a lot of people
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within the Ukrainian government and military who know that they
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are not going to be able to get the territory back at the moment
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under the Ukrainian constitution.
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They are not going to and they cannot give away the territory
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and say that belongs to Russia now.
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But it's perfectly possible to say, OK, the lines stop here,
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it's frozen, but that is still our territory and we'll get it
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back one day. But of course, what the Russians
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are demanding is far more than that.
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They're saying they want a lot of territory which they don't
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control at the moment. I mean, there's even reports
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that they're saying that they want Odessa, they're trying to
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take as much as possible, and those are aligned.
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You know, they have maximalist demands.
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So the Ukrainians understand perfectly well that any kind of
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negotiation over a longer term peace is a very, very long and
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complex thing. It's not just a 30 day
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ceasefire. Now, from the Russian point of
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view, you know, there's a question as to why they why they
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would go along with this beyond the 30 day ceasefire.
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As you say, they may well say, well, the 30 day pause is quite
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useful for us, but but right now, particularly in the cursed
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region, they're doing pretty well.
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So, so, So what? What is in it for them to settle
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at this stage? Yeah, I think there's short,
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medium and long term. In the short term, I suspect
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that the Russians might try and spin this out for quite a while.
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I mean, they've said, you know, that they need to have a direct
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term contact with the White House before they're going to
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make any answer on this. And I think we're going to, you
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know, see quite a bit of backwards and forwards because
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in the coming days they are pushing the Ukrainians very hard
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out of curse, which is this small bit of Russian territory
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that the Ukrainians moved into and held part of since last
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summer. And it's.
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There, a big bargaining chip isn't.
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It yeah, it's a bargaining chip for the Ukrainians and I suspect
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it's a bargaining chip that they may soon lose because they are
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retreating and everyday we hear about more about the about the
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the Ukrainians having to to retreat.
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So it may be that that gets spun out.
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But then if you look in the medium term, the Russians are
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losing a lot of soldiers, a lot of people.
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And, you know, there's a question of how much longer they
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can carry on doing that for. And they are you losing a lot of
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equipment because the Ukrainians are in a defensive position at
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the moment and the Russians are trying to move forward.
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And when you're trying to move forward and when you're being
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proactive in that way, you often do have greater losses than the
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other side, which is just trying to hold the line.
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So in the medium term, I think some kind of ceasefire is quite
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useful for the Russians because they can use that to regroup, to
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get their weapons manufacture up.
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Maybe they would like to bring in and train more soldiers from
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other countries they've already got in ones from North Korea.
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So all of that, a pause in that way will be very helpful to the
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Russians. And in the long term, the issue
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of what are the Russians war aims, and this I think is where
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certainly President Trump appears to have not accepted or
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understood the war aim of Russia is to control Ukraine.
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That is what they want to do. Now, they have various ways of
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doing that. Militarily is one way.
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Politically is another way. So if they succeed in persuading
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President Trump that what Ukraine has to do is have
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elections six months after a ceasefire, there's all sorts of
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mischief they can do. The presidential election is one
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thing. What about local elections,
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Local elections in the territories they control, Local
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elections in the territories which are border where they
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control. It's all sorts of possibilities
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of bribing people and interfering and turning
10:23
Ukrainians against each other. Because, you know, elections are
10:26
always competitive, aren't they? And then you're not all fighting
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Russia, you're fighting each other.
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These are the kind of things that the Russians want to do.
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They want some kind of settlement that enables them to
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have power over Ukraine. That is their long term goal.
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I mean, you say that Putin is likely to string this out for a
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few days at least and that there'll be a negotiation over
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the ceasefire. What are his options beyond
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that? Well, his options are what they
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always are, to go into a negotiation where he has the
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advantage and where he will use every KGB trick in the book.
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And I've spoken to people who've negotiated, been on the
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Ukrainian side negotiating the Minsk accords.
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And, you know, everything is down to the last detail that
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they'll, the Russians will suddenly come in and say, we're
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going to spend a whole day negotiating the 100mm cannon.
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And then they will say, and then we're going to do this, then
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we're going to do that. And then suddenly they come in
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with 100 pages that you've got assigned tonight before you go
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back. So they do all of that, that
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stuff, all of the, the time. They make it very, very
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difficult. And they, they have lots of
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lawyers and they have, you know, they have incredibly skilled
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negotiators. And one of the things I think is
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very, which maybe President Trump hasn't sort of seen in
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that way is President Trump is a fairly blunt instrument.
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Either there's fighting or there's no, no fighting.
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That's all he cares about. He doesn't care about the
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detail. Vladimir Putin cares about every
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single detail and will try and make sure that in any
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negotiation every single detail is to Russia's advantage.
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So that, I think is what he is likely to do.
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And Trump can't do to Russia what he did to Ukraine, can he
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in in reality, which is to get furious and throw his weight
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around and insult them. That is not how he deals with
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Russia and it is not how he deals with Vladimir Putin.
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However, he could put on more sanctions.
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And the other thing which maybe would we can put him more than
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anything else would be if the price of oil went down.
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Now, President Biden tried to make that happen with his
12:36
negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis told them they
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weren't going to do that. President Trump, you know, it
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would be to his advantage in some ways if the price of oil
12:46
came right down, partly because it would be very good for
12:49
inflation in America. But it would also mean that the
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Russians had very, very little money because they are entirely
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dependent on oil, on the shadow fleet, which, you know, takes
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their sanctioned oil around the world.
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So if he wanted to, President Trump could try and push that
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angle and that might make a difference.
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It's it's worth then talking about the European position
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which remains, that they are prepared to send peacekeepers or
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Britain and France's position at least.
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And others are are considering it, which is looking
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increasingly daft, frankly, because Russia's not going to
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accept it. Yeah.
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And and it never was. The whole talk about
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peacekeepers is pushing the cart before the horse because there
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is no peace to keep. And certainly one of Russia's
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main concerns is NATO and they want Ukraine as a buffer zone, a
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neutral buffer zone under their their sway between them and
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NATO. If you bring in British and
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French forces who control who are going right up to the
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Russian border, then NATO's right on their border.
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That's done exactly the opposite of what they what they want.
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So it's very hard to see how that kind of peacekeeping force
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could ever be acceptable to the Russians.
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Yes. And and so it also makes you
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wonder whether Russia is considering the wider diplomatic
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victory that it can possibly see, because even if Donald
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Trump is back on Ukraine's side today, I'm guessing nobody in
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Ukraine feels that they can rely on that.
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There's a lesson that for, you know, there for all the other
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American partners, which is that you cannot rely on Washington
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really to be a, a sort of a steady security partner in the
14:48
future. And it's very difficult to see
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how that comes back anytime soon, even beyond the Trump
14:55
period, because, you know, the the Trump ideology could return
14:59
in the form of JD Vance or somebody else in the future.
15:02
So there is serious damage to the whole question of Western
15:06
security stability. And that's an enormous victory
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for Russia in the longer term. Absolutely.
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The other thing, the Russians obviously want the far right
15:17
parties in Europe to succeed and you know, increase their their
15:23
influence and so on. So you look at my Le Pen in
15:27
France and you know she had loans from Russia at one point.
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This came out in a in a court case, even though she did deny
15:35
it. The Afd in Germany, all of these
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various parties, they will continue to try and exert as
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much influence as they can within the European political
15:48
system as well as they are doing in in Ukraine.
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So, yeah, none of that is going to change.
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And from the Ukrainian point to view, Europe becomes ever more
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important. And I think that the issue about
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weapons is very important because, you know, we talk about
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the American weapons, which have been so useful to Ukraine.
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But at the same time, Ukraine has been developing its own
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weapons industry. It now produces 40% of the
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weaponry that it uses on the battlefield.
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A lot of that is very high tech drones.
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Ukraine is ahead of almost anywhere else in the world in
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the use of high tech drones, all sorts of extraordinary things
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that drones couldn't do before this war started.
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So the technology they are developing is also going to be
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very useful for Europe as it spends more and more on defence
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and actually, you know, it would be useful for the Americans as
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well. It's hard to know whether
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they're going to whether they're going to the bite on that, but
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Ukraine has an opportunity to integrate its defence production
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with Europe, which would strengthen Europe and Ukraine
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and that could leave America on the side.
17:01
Just to come back to the question of security guarantees,
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this is something that has dominated the conversation for
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weeks now. And I think, you know, the the
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Trump side have been saying, look, don't get ahead of
17:13
yourself when it comes to security guarantees.
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Security guarantees may be the final part of the jigsaw once
17:19
we're at negotiating stage. And from the Russian point of
17:23
view, as you, as you've laid out, there can't really be the
17:27
kind of security guarantee that Ukraine wants because there's no
17:32
way that Russia will accept NATO troops on its border of any
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kind. So the security guarantee is
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going to have to be something different, isn't it?
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And and not what we're talking about at the moment.
17:45
Yeah. And I don't know what that's
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going to be. You know, if I did, I'd, you
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know, probably be in charge of a small country somewhere in
17:52
Europe. But the point is, is because the
17:56
Ukrainians have this long experience of negotiating with
17:59
the Russians. So after the Russian invasion
18:01
and annexing of Crimea in 2014, as you'll remember, you had a
18:06
lot of rounds of peace negotiations in Minsk, the
18:10
capital of Belarus, Minsk 1, Minsk 2, all of these
18:14
negotiations and you had a ceasefire which both sides
18:18
actually violated, but particularly the Russians.
18:21
But the whole point about Minsk was the security guarantees
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didn't work. And that's why Russia was able
18:28
to come back for for more. And that is the great concern of
18:33
the Ukrainians and that is what the Russian, the Russians want
18:36
to leave that open. So even if they do do a deal,
18:40
they want to leave that open that they come can come back for
18:43
for more at some point. The other thing which I think is
18:46
really difficult for the Ukrainians and this again is a
18:48
longer term thing, is that if you leave this as a frozen
18:53
conflict, you're not going to get something like, for example,
18:56
you have in North and South Korea where South Korea was, you
19:00
know, has been able to to blossom and to develop
19:04
economically and so on, even though it has never had a formal
19:07
ceasefire with the North because the North, you know, it frankly
19:11
hasn't interfered. I mean, it might, you know,
19:14
there might be occasional raids and so on, but but it hasn't.
19:17
And that's because China doesn't want it to.
19:19
But here what you might get would be a diminished and
19:24
diminishing country. You've already got a lot of
19:26
Ukrainians who are living overseas.
19:29
There's a demographic crisis. One of the reasons that Zelensky
19:33
has not called for a full scale mobilization of men under the
19:37
age of 25 is that they're really worried about destroying that
19:42
generation of there being no men left and the women having left
19:47
the country. And then the population getting
19:49
smaller and smaller and smaller and always having this massive
19:53
threat to the east so that Ukraine in the end sort of
19:58
dwindles away. These are the long term fears
20:02
that Ukraine has. Of course there are NATO troops
20:06
on Russia's border already in a way, aren't there with with
20:09
Finland. Why does Russia tolerate that?
20:13
Yeah, Finland, the Baltic States and so on.
20:15
The reason it tolerates that and it doesn't tolerate Ukraine is
20:20
because it sees Ukraine as part of Russia.
20:23
It has a different attitude to Ukraine.
20:25
It does not see Ukraine as an independent country in any way.
20:29
But also there are many who say, well, after Ukraine, it would
20:32
like to move that way too. Finland they can't do anything
20:35
about but that they've got their eye on the Baltic states.
20:38
And certainly if you talk to any of the Baltic state leaders,
20:41
what they will say to you is after Ukraine we are in the
20:45
firing line and that is why we are so supportive of Ukraine.
20:48
They certainly think that Ukrainian soldiers are dying,
20:52
not just for Ukraine's independence, but for theirs as
20:55
well. Now, just finally, there's going
20:58
to be a temptation for people to have a look at the way we've
21:03
been thinking about Donald Trump and say, well, you know what?
21:07
He, he's the one who does make the difference.
21:09
And for all the chaos and for all the confusion, he has got
21:14
one side to agree to a ceasefire.
21:16
And who knows, he may get Russia to agree to a 30 day ceasefire
21:19
as well, whether or not it actually happens in in fact.
21:23
So. So what do we make, then, of
21:26
whether the world has been too quick to judge Trump as a man
21:31
who doesn't understand the way things are, when the facts on
21:36
the ground might show he's the one who's actually making a
21:39
difference? Well, the one thing he said,
21:41
which is absolutely true is that too many people are dying in
21:44
this war and too many, you know, soldiers on both sides are
21:49
losing their their lives. Of that he is absolutely right.
21:54
And I think that what he has done in trying to push some of
21:57
this through, yeah, you can say that this is not all bad.
22:02
In many ways this is positive. A ceasefire would be great.
22:06
The issue is what happens after a ceasefire.
22:09
And that, I think, is the problem because from the
22:11
Ukrainian point of view is this. If the ceasefire just enables
22:16
Russia to rearm, regroup and then come back for more, maybe
22:22
in a year's time, maybe after Donald Trump is no longer in
22:27
office, then that hasn't solved the problem in any way.
22:31
It has just delayed the the problem.
22:34
And so that, I think, is the key.
22:37
There are some things he has understood and he has pushed
22:39
through. And you cannot say that it's a
22:40
bad idea to stop the killing. Of course you can't.
22:44
But if it just makes Russia stronger and so there's more
22:48
killing later on, and Ukraine gets swallowed up, then maybe
22:52
Donald Trump wouldn't look like such a brilliant thing after
22:55
all. Lindsay Hilson, thank you very
22:57
much indeed. That's the forecast for this
22:59
morning. Until next time, bye bye.