Latest / Auto Collabs / EVs, Tariffs, and Market Trends: A 2025 Outlook With Erin Keating of Cox Automotive | Public Policy Day 2025

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EVs, Tariffs, and Market Trends: A 2025 Outlook With Erin Keating of Cox Automotive | Public Policy Day 2025 · Auto Collabs

• 0:01
  We always like it when we get to sit with someone new that we haven't sat with. Yeah. Erin Keating. Nice to meet you guys, yeah. Executive analyst for, uh, Cox Automotive. Thanks for joining us. Absolutely.
• 0:09
  Happy to be here. I- So- Go ahead. No, I, I'm excited about- No, you. You. You...
• 0:13
  because a lot of people, they think, you know, when, when inside the industry at least, uh, the Cox Automotive Organization is, it hosts a ton of different resources from, like, an actual software or dealership operations perspective.
• 0:25
  But because of that, there's all this rich access to data.
• 0:29
  And the Cox organization, through your department and the department that Jonathan Smoke is head of, and all of, all of the analysts are a part of, are exposing so much that allows dealers and the rest of the world to kind of, like, have a peer into what's going on in the industry.
• 0:46
  Can you talk a little bit about, like, the, the, how much data- Yeah... is possible to access and how you guys are exposing it?
• 0:55
  I mean, it's insane because your, to your point, we have Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, so those are our two biggest marketplaces, and it's, I think our latest statistic was around 68% to 75% of individuals pass through those two marketplaces when they're shopping and buying vehicles.
• 1:09
  So just take that as consumer data that we get, right? And then we, of course, see all of the dealer tra- transactions through Dealertrack and other informa- you know, the dealer management system that we get.
• 1:19
  Um, so you get transactional data, you get vehicle data through all of our X time, everything else, and then you get market data that specifically Jonathan Smoke and our team adds to the data around the economy and so forth.
• 1:32
  And it just pulls out this, these really rich insights into what's going on with the consumers, with the OEMs, with the dealers, with public policy. You know, where can we see shifts in the market and so forth.
• 1:43
  So I am not one of the people that has to work in the data day to day.
• 1:46
  I'm one of the people that really benefits from super smart people on our team that get to pull all that data together and share it with me, and then I sort of try to help synthesize, like, what does this say when we put it in the larger context of the business?
• 1:57
  Um, which is really fascinating. Well, tell us a little bi- bit about what you do- Yeah... day to day. Well, I talk to people like you. If you're not all in the data.
• 2:04
  [laughs] I mean, not to say I'm never in the data, but you don't want me managing the spreadsheets. Just let me, let me tell you that. Me neither. Yeah. Kyle will vouch for that. Yes. [laughs] Amen.
• 2:13
  Uh, I mean, I did spend, uh, quite a long time within the automotive industry on the OEM side, the manufacturer side.
• 2:19
  Um, and so a lot of what I'm trying to do is to help look at what's happening across the industry for the dealers, for the consumers, mostly for the manufacturers as well, um, which is why I'm here today at the public policy.
• 2:30
  Like, what, what's going to have an impact on our industry?
• 2:34
  And then combining that with the powerful data analytics that we have to say, what do I want our internal stakeholders to understand about what's going on in the automotive industry?
• 2:43
  What do I need our external stakeholders to understand? Um, and then certainly creating content along the way of how can we help bring our data and information to those that need it.
• 2:53
  So some of the main topics that we've heard today, and even over the last week, EVs- Yeah... still a hot topic. What's gonna happen with them? Uh, another is, like, the actual transaction, the price of cars- Sure...
• 3:06
  the, how, how the economic impacts of this year, you know, interest rates, things like that.
• 3:12
  Uh, and then I think lastly is, like, how many cars are being bought and sold because the SAR has been kind of a moving target- Yeah... for quite some time.
• 3:21
  Can you maybe, like, speak to the thing that you're seeing or talking about the most right there or maybe across- Yeah... a few of them? It's a little bit of everything. It's a little bit of everything.
• 3:29
  Maybe pick your favorite. He's like, how about this and this? Certainly in the- You can pick favorites. Yeah, I can, I can. You're allowed. You know, I am a parent. I have two kids, and I will tell you- Ah.
• 3:36
  [laughs] What, what are you about to say? There's always one favorite. Easy. Oh, man. Do they know- It might change. Do they... Oh, [laughs] right. I was gonna say, do they know who they are? Yeah. It depends on the day.
• 3:44
  When they are, they do know who they are, but yeah. [laughs] At the moment they are, they know it. Yeah, at the moment they are, they know it. They feel the sun coming down on them. The other one knows it.
• 3:51
  Let's put it that way. Yeah. Um, so a lot of the discussion, obviously, for the last two weeks, we've had a lot of executive orders coming into the place.
• 3:58
  And, and really, um, this is one of the things I love about my position, is that I get to help those that are looking at the automotive industry and think more comprehensively about all the different parts of some of these executive orders.
• 4:09
  So, like, when people talk about EVs, I mean, we at Cox Automotive are pretty bullish. We think one in four vehicles are going to be electrified this year in the United States. Wow.
• 4:17
  Like- Is that hybrid or- Hy- yes, electrified. Some sort of hybrid. Sort of hybrid. Electrified. Half a hybrid to fully electric. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah.
• 4:23
  But we have seen electric vehicles- We're on our way to misquote you. Right. Yep. Just so you know. That happens all the time. [laughs] Um, it's all good. It wouldn't be a first. Yeah, exactly. I've heard. I've heard.
• 4:31
  So, but we are seeing that electric vehicles are continuing to pick up in popularity. And at the end of the day, listen, we've got 15 new vehicles show- you know, hitting the market this year.
• 4:40
  The manufacturers have been in production and been in planning for electric vehicles to come to the market in the years to come. Will there be slower opp, uh, adoption? Potentially.
• 4:49
  Um, you know, I am a fan of w- a lot of peop- folks saying, you know, had the market just worked. It's a great power to, powertrain alternative. I think people, it's good for people to have that choice to get it.
• 5:00
  Um, we certainly are getting a lot of questions around the CAFE standards. I will clarify, no, we don't believe that the CAFE standards have made cars specifically more expensive.
• 5:09
  They've contributed as well as a ton of other- And speaking of being misquoted. Right. Right, yes. Uh, uh, they've, they've, uh, they've contributed certainly.
• 5:16
  I mean, all regulation, safety regulations, everything contributes to the cost of the vehicle. It's a very complex industry we're in. Um, so answering a lot of questions around that, you know.
• 5:26
  Will, how will these legislations impact, um, individuals? The tariffs have certainly been a huge conversation, and, and those are a real serious, um, real serious threat, uh, admittedly, for manufacturers especially.
• 5:37
  It's gonna be really tough to walk their way through that if tariffs come this coming weekend. Yeah, and le- let's actually dive into that because it, it was a pretty hefty conversation over the last two days- Yes...
• 5:47
  specifically since we've- Yeah... since we've gotten here. And I think a lot of people when they hear tariffs think of, like, top line tariffs on the actual vehicle coming in. Right.
• 5:55
  Um, and a lot of the conversation in the industry right now for manufacturers, and it's not just vehicles that are manufactured completely outside of the US. Right.
• 6:04
  It's vehicles that are manufactured in the US but built in p- with parts- Right. Componentry parts... brought in from other. And so the- Right...
• 6:11
  so talk about, like, how there's a longer tail than just, like, the actual car- Totally... coming in. You know, 100%. You're, you're 100% right. There's, what, around 30,000 parts in a vehicle.
• 6:20
  That makes up a certain amount of componentry.
• 6:22
  That componentry gets, you know-Built in one state, might get moved over the border to go and get put into a big- a larger component or so forth, might get pulled back over the border.
• 6:31
  So it's not even just that it's all the different pieces that get tariffed.
• 6:35
  It could potentially get tariffed multiple times if we don't understand how that's happening, um, because there has been no clarity about how they will assess tariffs. Um, but then also think of the dealerships.
• 6:44
  You guys work with the dealerships all the time. They're ordering parts for their vehicles, so it's not just the end consumer that's gonna have- That's right... inflationary impacts from tariffs.
• 6:52
  That's how it gets to used cars, right? It's how it gets to used car. The whole market. The dealers who need to stock the parts that are coming from Mexico or Canada. So it's a lot more complicated.
• 7:01
  And for sure, and I had to, uh, my husband hopefully won't listen to this and won't mind, but I had to educate him on tar- how tariffs impact consumers. And I was like, "Yes, no, obviously you pay" [laughs]
• 7:12
  like- Right, right. There's gotta be an offset somewhere. There's not someone just absorbing the cost because they feel good about it, you know? So, yes, it ultimately does- [laughs] Yeah... leak down to the consumer.
• 7:20
  You will pay more. It will be amortized or, or, or, you know, spread across an entire lineup of vehicles, but, um, there's no automotive manufacturer that's immune to it either. There's not a- Wow...
• 7:29
  single manufacturer that is selling into the United States market that's not going to be impacted by this. So Jonathan Smoke- Yeah... is your boss. We've, we've- Yeah...
• 7:37
  been able to hang out with him a- Smoke and smoke... number of times. By the way, Jonathan, ever since this promotion, you don't call, you don't write. [laughs] Ever. Just gonna have some fun.
• 7:44
  Haven't even, haven't even heard him DJ since, since the promotion. Right? Right? I know. Where's the playlist? It's unbelievable. Where's the playlist? The playlist. Bring us the playlist.
• 7:51
  You didn't hear the, the end of the year playlist? The forecast playlist? Well, we saw the for- forecast. Oh, okay... playlist. Always. Yeah, that's it. With the electric boogie. Yeah, yeah. I know.
• 7:58
  But, but what i- what is his kind of initiative, and how is he leading the team heading into 2025?
• 8:03
  Yeah, I mean, well, one thing we all know, and he's been helping us really shape how we're functioning as a big team, is that we've gotta keep an eye on all of these things that are impacted by policy.
• 8:12
  So we are diving into content in the vehicles, where things are manufactured, how does that impact. We do a lot of deep diving into EVs, cost of EVs, the cost of incentives going away, so on and so forth.
• 8:24
  Um, and really he does a great job of helping us all. Some of us are not economists. Mm-hmm. We like to play one on TV.
• 8:30
  [laughs] And so he helps us also, you know, really synthesize the information from an economic perspective so that we can incorporate that into how we also deliver whatever pieces of data or variable insights that we're using.
• 8:42
  So he's a, he's a good leader, very smart guy. Um, you know, he doesn't write or- And you're not just saying that... call me either. No, I love him. He's a great guy. [laughs] He's, he is a, he is a pleasure to work for.
• 8:51
  No, seriously. I, I'm the one who went to him and said, "Hey, I want that job." I love it. So, yeah. [laughs] That's really cool. That's really cool. Well, Erin, thank you so much for giving us some time. Sure.
• 8:58
  Let's hope this isn't the last conversation. Yeah, no. Anytime. And thanks for serving the industry. Yeah, great to meet you guys. Yeah. Yeah, take care.