Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 120: It’s Heating Up Out There and the Ring of Fire Is Fueling the Chaos with Gary Lezak

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120: It’s Heating Up Out There and the Ring of Fire Is Fueling the Chaos with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

0:00
Welcome back to another episode of the Cattle USA Daily podcast.
0:03
Today we are welcoming back Gary Lezak with the Weather 2020
0:06
team. Today we are talking all things
0:09
weather, what is happening across the Midwest, We're
0:12
talking heat waves, we're talking everything we're going
0:14
to see this next week. And then the what in the heck is
0:18
the Ring of Fire? That is what we're talking about
0:20
today too, and everything that goes along with that.
0:24
Gary breaks it all down and explains exactly what the jet
0:28
stream is doing and how it is going to affect all of us
0:31
throughout the Plains, but then also the northern states, the
0:34
southern states, everywhere across the Western, like
0:36
everywhere, how this Ring of Fire affects us and how the jet
0:39
stream is just making all of that happen.
0:41
So Gary breaks it all down for us.
0:44
Thank the Lord because it is way over my brain most of the time,
0:47
but he breaks it all down and we're going to go ahead and just
0:51
dive right into this episode with Gary and chat about all of
0:54
it. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
1:00
podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
1:03
industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
1:06
today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
1:09
passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
1:11
informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
1:15
episode, Gary. Lauren, good morning.
1:24
That was my worst. Good morning.
1:25
Let me do it again. You ready that?
1:27
Was much better, much better. Take two was chef's kiss.
1:30
Good morning. How are you?
1:32
How's life? How's how's everything going?
1:35
Everything is going fantastic. I mean the weather is crazy,
1:38
which we'll talk about. One of our products, the Global
1:41
Prediction, just got this great testimonial that that will
1:44
really explain what that's all about.
1:46
On the Intelligence Report. We did a whole thing on the Ring
1:51
of Fire. We're going to talk about that
1:53
today because the Ring of Fire is what we are in the pattern
1:57
we're in right now. We'll talk about that in a
2:00
minute, but a lot going on as we move towards the end of July and
2:04
early August. So, but yeah, I'm doing great.
2:06
How are you? I'm doing great.
2:08
It is hotter than hell here in Kansas.
2:11
It's. Good.
2:14
OK, it's not that bad if the humidity is pretty intense.
2:17
And I can't say it's that bad either because I also have a job
2:21
where I get to stay in the air conditioning all day.
2:24
I only have to go outside when I want to.
2:26
My poor husband. I sent him away to work this
2:28
morning and was like have fun honey.
2:31
Best of luck to you. Bring an extra T-shirt.
2:33
Send him away. You.
2:34
Hey husband, you're going away today.
2:36
Goodbye. Get out here.
2:38
I don't send him away. He he leaves on his own.
2:41
I'm still asleep when he leaves for work in the mornings.
2:43
Oh yes, it's, it's hot, but it's good.
2:46
It's good. We're we're loving it.
2:48
We there's no complaints otherwise.
2:50
Let me just tell you, you're gone.
2:53
Nope. Go for it.
2:53
Go for it. Let me tell you a little
2:55
statistic. Wichita, KS has not been 100°
2:59
this summer yet. OK, and there the the IT was 98
3:07
years ago the last time they went a whole summer without
3:10
being 100 degrees 98 years ago. Now this upper high anticyclone
3:17
heat wave cleaning machine is actually going to build into
3:21
Kansas and Oklahoma in the next 7 days and then it's going to go
3:26
away because the LRC tells you when it's going to build and
3:28
when it's going to go and it's going to build.
3:32
I just got chills. Do you know why?
3:34
Why? Blue Sky part of the pan is
3:38
cycling back through. If you've been listening to Cali
3:41
USA's podcast this whole time that we've been on this whole
3:45
year, every week, I don't think I think we might have missed one
3:49
week because you had to go on vacation.
3:51
Maybe one. Yeah, Uh huh.
3:53
You had to go on vacation. I had to, sorry.
3:56
You know, the Hawaii, Japan or the Philippines, I still talk to
4:00
you. I'm just, I've not been, I've
4:02
not been to the Japan. I've not been to so but but my
4:10
point is, if you've been on listening this whole time, we've
4:14
talked about what we, it evolved.
4:17
We started calling it the blue sky part of the pattern.
4:19
It cycles through between two other parts of the cycling
4:24
pattern. I know this, this sounds like
4:26
crazy to some of you out there. And for others out there right
4:29
now listening, you know that we talk about the LRC and the
4:33
second pattern. It's, it's just incredible.
4:35
It's the DNA of the atmosphere. But we had a severe weather
4:39
segment of the pattern, then the Kansas City Blizzard part of the
4:43
cycling pattern. We're in between those segments
4:46
right now. That's the blue sky part of the
4:48
pattern and then the Kansas City Blizzard part of the patterns
4:51
coming back. And some bottles just came out
4:54
with 12 inches of rain in the next two weeks.
4:59
The European model has 12 inches of rain in the next two weeks in
5:02
Kansas City. Wow.
5:04
And because of this Ring of Fire thing we're going to talk about,
5:08
I'm just babbling. I'm babbling.
5:10
You're fine. Go.
5:12
I I just I'm here. For it.
5:14
I'm going to shut up. Let me hear Lauren, everyone.
5:17
Nothing to say about the weather other than that it's hot and it
5:20
is humid and it's going to be hot and it's going to be humid
5:23
next week. So what's tell me what this Ring
5:26
of Fire is? Explain that for me.
5:29
The Ring of Fire, What happens during the summer is the jet
5:33
stream. Weekends.
5:34
The jet stream is caused by temperature contrast.
5:37
We've talked about this as well, and what happens is during the
5:41
summer, instead of being -50 in Canada, it's about 70° there.
5:46
So it's 120° warmer, which is amazing in some spots.
5:52
And then in Mexico it's 90 during the winter, or that minus
5:56
to the 90 is a 140° contrast. Now it's maybe 110, so there's a
6:03
40° contrast. This causes the jet stream to
6:06
lift north and be weaker. So the gestures at its weakest
6:12
strength and farthest N position during this next two week
6:15
stretch and what happens is the anticyclone.
6:21
The heat wave creating machine builds over the United States
6:25
and bad summers 198019882000 and 12.
6:33
These bad drought heat wave summers in Manhattan.
6:39
The reason I sort of mocked you slightly on your heat and
6:43
humidity concern. Some summers in Manhattan, KS,
6:47
it's 114°, not 96, OK, 100 and so yes, it's getting hot, but
6:56
it's not as hot as those bad, bad summers.
6:58
This summer it's not that way. But every summer when that
7:02
anticyclone forms the flow, it's the opposite of a storm.
7:07
So the flow around these anticyclones is clockwise, and
7:13
disturbances in the monsoon moisture is pulled out of Mexico
7:18
into the deserts Arizona and New Mexico, and they have the summer
7:23
monsoon. Monsoon means seasonal wind, but
7:26
it's caused by this anticyclone and it directs the moisture out
7:30
of the Gulf of Mexico into the mountains of Mexico.
7:34
They form into thunderstorms and then this higher humidity and
7:38
rain spreads N into Arizona and New Mexico.
7:43
Colorado goes up into the northern plains, then interacts
7:47
with the LRC in the jet stream and then it turns back over the
7:51
top and heads back into the the eastern part of the country.
7:55
It's called the Ring of Fire because you have heat,
7:59
tremendous heat, and that's going to build is probably going
8:02
to get Wichita it's first 100° day.
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If it falls short at 99, it would be great because we could
8:08
set that record, but it probably will as that heat builds up
8:13
around that is a Ring of Fire disturbances of causing
8:19
thunderstorms that can produce tremendous amounts of rain.
8:23
For example, the Guadalupe River disaster in Texas is MCSA Mezzo
8:29
Scale convective system or one of those disturbances that
8:31
formed there. That part of the pattern is also
8:34
cycling back through. It'll be fascinating if there's
8:38
another flooding event there. Let's hope not.
8:40
But regardless, that's what the Ring of Fire is, this anticycle
8:45
which is building in the next few days.
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And then it when it breaks down, it allows even more disturbances
8:51
to come in. So, so we're going to see
8:55
multiple rain chances, the entire agriculture Belt, the
8:59
Corn Belt, the Dairy Farmers Belt, you guys out there in the
9:05
Western Plains especially, you're influenced by these
9:08
complex of thunderstorms as well.
9:10
And this summer just happens to be in such a configuration that
9:15
almost every location is getting hit by one or two of these
9:19
disturbances. There's still a few spots around
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the Flint Hills just South of Manhattan.
9:25
The northern side of the Flint Hills is one spot that continues
9:28
to get missed. They've had one to two inches of
9:31
rain in the month of July, since June 1st, I think.
9:35
So it's been fairly dry. But even that area should is
9:40
almost destined to get one of these big complexes of
9:42
thunderstorms. Is it too late for some of the
9:45
corn and soybean crops? There's probably a few crops
9:48
that have failed, but there's a lot of them in the last week
9:53
that just got saved by five to seven straight days of some rain
9:59
and that's it's caused by the Ring of Fire.
10:01
Nice, fascinating. The weather, it is crazy.
10:06
It is crazy. I never would have thought that
10:09
like something like that is it's just so complex and it brings so
10:14
much to like how it affects everyone across the Midwest.
10:19
And it's just like a circle, like everyone's going to feel
10:21
some effects of this. Let's talk heat wave.
10:24
We're getting the heat wave that like we're kind of experiencing
10:27
right now and into next week that we're going to see across
10:29
like the Plains, especially here in the Midwest.
10:31
I know that's a lot of concern for a lot of ranchers, farmers,
10:35
all the people. What are your thoughts on that?
10:38
It's going to really build strong in the next few days.
10:41
Early next week it'll reach its peak strength and then it should
10:45
back off. Now when it backs off means it
10:48
shifts. South Texas could be a big
10:50
problem. Anybody's got interest down
10:52
there. It often is hard to break it
10:54
down there for a while. So the heat's going to build,
10:57
but it'll back off. The jet stream is going to come
10:59
across part of the pattern that produced the Duratio and severe
11:03
weather event across North Dakota and Minnesota about 41
11:07
days ago. Next week is going to come back
11:10
through all but so there's another significant severe
11:12
weather you have, but basically the heat's going to back off.
11:15
And so and then we'll go into August and we're not going to
11:19
have any major long lasting heat wave through the Corn Belt and
11:24
from Kansas northward, but there will be some heat as expected.
11:28
We thought the last week of July was going to do it, and we're
11:30
doing it. The blue sky part of the
11:33
pattern. Yes, yes, we are ready for that
11:35
blue sky. Part of the pattern, that is for
11:37
sure. What else are we seeing?
11:39
Any other highs, lows, highlights in the weather right
11:43
now? Just know that we're just 2 1/2
11:46
months away from the new LRC setting up.
11:48
It's going to be absolutely fascinating and I hope to take
11:52
you through that as we go into the next few months.
11:56
We're still in the same weather pattern that's set up last fall
11:59
and is cycling. The global predictor is one of
12:02
our products that's a real inexpensive one that everyone
12:05
can get right now for like just about nothing.
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It's $5.99 a month or 4999 a year and you just go to your App
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Store, search for Global Predictor Pro, get the pro
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version, don't get the free version.
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You're not going to be happy. You'll get it, but you'll want
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more. You'll want more.
12:23
That's what why you won't be happy.
12:24
And one person just used it. Lauren, I got this testimony.
12:28
I want to read this. Dan McElroy, he's just a
12:31
Facebook acquaintance. I don't know who this guy is,
12:34
but he wrote to me on May 28th. This is Gary.
12:38
When you say with Global Predictor Pro, you can get
12:42
information for anywhere in the world, does that include the
12:45
open ocean or is it only land masses?
12:48
I'm sailing across the Atlantic this summer and I wonder if I
12:53
can get predictions for the middle of the ocean with it.
12:55
And I said yes. It's uses geospatial radar and
13:00
satellite information from around the world.
13:03
Our sophisticated program, the LRC model, provides the the data
13:07
for this. So he then used it.
13:10
He looked it up and on Sunday he wrote back to me.
13:13
So that first one was May 28th. Here is this past Sunday.
13:16
Gary, a couple months ago, I asked a question about Global
13:20
Predictor Pro inquiring, inquiring whether it worked over
13:24
the open ocean. My Atlantic crossing is complete
13:28
and I wanted to share real world results with you in a couple of
13:33
words of words. Very close.
13:36
The variance in the global predictor versus actual was very
13:41
likely my lack of ability to predict our actual course and
13:45
being off by 100 or 200 miles. The global predictor said highs
13:49
in the upper 60s and lows and lower 60s across our entire
13:55
trip. Reality was mid to upper 60s and
14:00
upper 40s, so those were off by like 3°, so whatever.
14:04
Either way, we began planning from July Kansas City point of
14:09
view, thinking shorts, polos and the like.
14:12
After the global predictor, we repacked long sleeves and jeans
14:17
and a jacket and we were good. As for precipitation, the global
14:20
predictor did call for a bit of a midweek period of rain.
14:25
I may have been off enough to miss and in my random selections
14:29
and he goes in the end. I am impressed with the
14:31
accuracy. I will not have thought of Hi,
14:35
he's in July, but the gold predictor and we have an October
14:40
trip planned too and I know what the gold predictor says for
14:43
that. I will try to get report back to
14:45
you later. So there you go somebody and he
14:47
sent me his trip. He literally crossed from the
14:51
East Coast United States all the way to Europe.
14:54
That crazy many years ago the only way you can get this
14:58
weather forecast months in advance.
15:01
That is amazing. And that just goes to show the
15:03
accuracy of it and that, hey, we're going to give you the
15:08
weather predictions even for the middle of the ocean.
15:10
So I can't say that most of our people out there are going to be
15:15
crossing the middle of the ocean on a sailboat.
15:17
But hey, if you want to know what's happening in the middle
15:19
of the ocean, we got you. Right.
15:22
For, for, for fun when you're out to dinner with people or you
15:25
know, somebody's getting married and they're getting married in
15:27
Chicago or Naples or on a ship in the middle of the Atlantic or
15:31
the middle of the Pacific on a cruise line.
15:34
You can have the forecast for that.
15:37
Maybe it's the blue sky part of the pattern.
15:39
You know it's going to be nice. Oh my gosh, yes.
15:41
That would be like the perfect party trick.
15:43
Like, hey, hey, when is a big event that you have coming up?
15:45
Let me tell you what the weather is going to be in six months
15:48
from now. Best party trick.
15:49
I love it. I love it.
15:51
As far as just everything else is going.
15:54
Any other weather things that we need to hit on today or just
16:00
other parts of the pattern that we're going through?
16:02
I'm excited for the LRC to reset.
16:04
Do you have any predictions on what you think if the cycle
16:08
length is going to be yet? This is, this is.
16:11
I wish we could get that right. This is one of the aspects of
16:14
the elders say, who would make up something that you don't know
16:17
until it happens? I mean, yeah, that's how
16:20
weather, that's how people think the weather is.
16:22
In October and November. The new weather pattern will be
16:25
setting up. We'll discuss that as we get
16:27
closer to it. But we won't know for sure what
16:30
that cycle length is. We have not figured out yet how
16:33
to figure out the cycle length earlier than October or
16:36
November, and it usually takes till the end of December.
16:39
But once we know, we can then predict the blue sky part of the
16:43
pattern, the severe weather outbreak segment of the cycling
16:48
pattern, the Kansas City Blizzard part of the pattern,
16:51
You know when and where there's going to be hurricanes, when and
16:54
where there's going to be severe weather outbreaks.
16:56
Did you know that? 8% accurate.
16:58
I'm predicting when and where severe weather outbreaks will
17:02
happen. OK, over 90%.
17:04
And at the end of the day, we do predict about 52.
17:11
We just did an analysis, 52% of the day.
17:14
So in the last 291 days since October 5th, if you do your
17:22
math, it's been 291 days while recording this 292 days, just
17:27
over 50% of those days we have predicted there would be severe
17:30
weather and just under 50% we said it would be calmer.
17:34
The 2% of all the Tornadoes that have happened across the United
17:39
States this year have happened in the days we predicted, and
17:42
only 8% have happened in the days we did not predict.
17:48
That is incredible. That is insanely incredible.
17:53
That is wow, just. I didn't answer your question
17:56
though. To answer your question, yes,
17:59
there we still have to watch for the the ratio severe weather
18:02
outbreak part of the pattern that's going to hit North Dakota
18:05
and Minnesota possibly in the next week could be a little
18:07
farther S than that as well. It's one of those Ridge riders
18:10
on the Ring of Fire. And then we, as we go into
18:14
August and September, the gesture will gradually get
18:18
stronger and we'll start looking, could there be an early
18:23
frost before the end of September up north perhaps?
18:29
Will there be anything? Last year we were able to
18:31
predict the beginning of the new LRC would be colder and it was.
18:34
What will happen this year? I I have to line that up, but
18:37
that'll be a topic of another segment.
18:40
Oh, I love it. Heck yeah.
18:42
Well, we've, we've covered it all today.
18:44
We've, we've hit all of the aspects of it and I'm excited to
18:48
use the global predictor because because my husband and I are
18:51
going to Banff and glacier in the beginning of, at the end of
18:56
August and beginning of September.
18:57
So we've got, we've got a real life scenario that we're using
19:01
it ourselves of when, how, where.
19:04
Where's Banff and Glacier? Where's that?
19:07
So it's going to be the like northern side of the, not the
19:11
northern side, the southern side of the Canadian Rockies.
19:14
So Banff is just east of Calgary, about an hour.
19:18
Yeah, so Banff. Yeah.
19:20
And then Glacier is just South of all of that and it's about a
19:24
six hour drive to get from Banff to where we're staying in
19:28
Glacier. But we're.
19:29
Going to do like. Have some friends.
19:31
That are there, I have friends that are there right now and
19:34
they're coming started to Colorado to visit me in three
19:36
days that's so. Exciting.
19:38
That's a perfect They were mad. They're mad because the Goldberg
19:41
Inter showed thunderstorms every day, but there's been a
19:44
thunderstorm every day. But most of the day has been
19:46
good. There you go, there you go.
19:50
Would you look at that? I, we're using it to plan our
19:52
vacation and plan it accordingly.
19:54
I mean, our dates aren't going to change.
19:55
We're going to be there one way or another.
19:58
I am using it to like I'm using it to plan what days we're
20:01
getting. Because with Banff you can only
20:03
get like you can't drive just like up to there's two really
20:08
like popular lakes in trailheads and you can't drive up there
20:11
anymore. You have to take a shuttle up
20:13
there and those shuttles book out like 3 months in advance.
20:16
And so I. Was a little late to the draw on
20:19
this one, but I am using the cold predictor to decide which
20:22
days we're going to go up because I want the hiking day to
20:25
be a good day. I don't want to, I don't want it
20:26
to be raining or anything like that.
20:28
So. Wow, this is going to be a great
20:31
trip. It is going to be a phenomenal
20:34
trip. We are so excited.
20:36
I finally have everything booked.
20:37
Like we've had the Airbnbs booked for a while, but I
20:39
finally like this week got the rental car booked and then got
20:42
like our hotel booked for the night that we get there and then
20:44
the night that we're leaving and all of that jazz.
20:47
It's going to be so fun. We're so excited.
20:49
We it's our anniversary trip so we're about to hit a year of
20:53
being married. And so congratulations.
20:55
Thank you. Yes.
20:58
So our anniversary is on September 7th.
21:00
And so we decided early on in our marriage that we were like,
21:04
we're not going to do anniversary gifts, we're going
21:05
to do anniversary trips. And so every year we're going to
21:08
take a trip over our anniversary or at least near our anniversary
21:11
and do the whole thing. So we're going up to the going
21:15
up to Banff this year. Very excited.
21:17
September 4th is the Eagles are playing I think Baltimore for
21:21
opening day of the NFL. Thing is, Baltimore and then the
21:25
Chiefs play the Chargers in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
21:30
So fun. Gary, you have the football
21:33
schedule memorized and I shouldn't expect anything less
21:36
from you. Yeah, week, Week one at home
21:39
openers September 14th, and I'm going to be in Kansas City at
21:42
the game. Yeah, we love it.
21:45
Heck yeah. As you should be.
21:46
As you should be. That's like the perfect time to
21:48
go to a Chiefs game, too, because you don't have to show
21:49
up in your overalls and. That's right, I just want to
21:53
pick. That socks.
21:54
Not going to be 715. I don't blame you, I wouldn't
21:59
want to scoop snow out of my seat either.
22:01
So perfect. Well, Gary, as always, thank you
22:03
for your time today and for sharing just a little bit of
22:06
your insight and knowledge into what is happening in the world
22:09
as far as weather goes and predictive weather.
22:11
To all of our listeners out there, make sure you check out
22:14
the show notes. I have the link not only for the
22:16
Global Predictor Pro app where you guys can get a hold of that
22:19
for just $5 a month. Or I also have the link down
22:23
there where we have our exclusive partnership link with
22:25
Cattle USA and Weather 2020 where you can get that full
22:28
dashboard for a discount as well.
22:31
So make sure you guys check all of that out in the show notes.
22:33
And as always, we hope you have a blessed week and we'll see you
22:36
all tomorrow. Have a good one y'all.