Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 20 - 4/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 20 - 4/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 20 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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We are halfway through our work week on a big Wednesday, and we
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got a lot to get to. On today's POD, I have a six
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pack of sweats for you, including four Major League
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Baseball bets, three of which are sides, one of which is a
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windy over, which I'm excited to share.
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Also, I have two bets in the NBA, both on totals ones and
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over ones and under. And I want to mention a futures
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bet when we get to our NBA portion of the POD because a lot
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of these bets in terms of awards are kind of unbetable.
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Like, I'll leave you an update on a lot of these.
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Like, for example, we're looking great with our Yokich MVPI got
1:05
him plus 125. He's now -3000.
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You know, Victor Wimbunyama -10,000.
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Got him at a better number around even money, I think, or
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-125, something like that. Most improved.
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Tyrese Maxie got him as well. He's now -1600.
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I didn't bet Defensive Player of the Year award.
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Go Bear. He's -3000.
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A lot of people are pointing to Wenbunyama, which if you'll get
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some stats, he's got some great numbers defensively, but the
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betting market doesn't believe that they have Gobert there.
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But there's one award we have an opportunity to get some value
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here. It's a slight minus number, but
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I'm going to tell you what it is on the pod if you haven't bet it
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yet. And there's one last NBA award
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to get down on here today for a futures bet.
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So six pack overall for MLB, two NBA, as well as a futures bet to
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consider. Now looking back toward last
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night, guys couldn't breakthrough 3 and 3 -, 1 unit.
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We had a couple good hits with the Dodgers and the Yankees.
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Both came through for the team, got a good hit with the magic
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and the Rockets over 215. That one cashes well, the
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frustrating ones. Number one was the Guardians.
2:08
What kept us from a four and two winning night was a Guardians
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team that was like -225. We actually beat the closing
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line there. They closed -245.
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They get off and was so annoying about that one.
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This is why baseball to me, guys, you gotta have the
2:21
thickest skin when it comes to betting baseball, because it's
2:24
just so crazy, you know, swings one way or the other.
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Huge blowout losses or a big come from behind win or a blown
2:31
save from your bullpen. Baseball is just a weird sport
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like that. So you got to have that thick
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skin. But anyway, that was so
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frustrating with the guardians because we beat the closing line
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and they actually got down 5 nothing in the first inning.
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I'm like, OK, that's not good. But they came back, they tied it
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up. They had multiple chances, 5 to
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5 to win it. They're late and what happens
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they give up two runs and in the 9th inning couldn't come back or
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8th inning and they lost the game.
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So guardians, come on man. Losing to the White Sox.
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Pathetic. Phillies came up short and then
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the tough one there, which would have also get given us a winning
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night is that Kings over 5 1/2. Kings lose 3 to one.
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You know, a big dog win there from the Anaheim Ducks, but was
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kind of frustrating is that the Kings or the Ducks actually
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scored two, two goals in the beginning of the third period to
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make it 3:00 to 1:00. So we're sitting on four goals,
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only needed two more. We had pretty much, you know, 15
3:19
minutes left in the third and multiple power plays couldn't
3:23
breakthrough it end up being a three to one game.
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So we're going to continue to grind a lot of these, you know,
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consecutive 3 and three days. And when you're betting sports
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guys, you got to keep knocking at the door, knocking at the
3:33
door, knocking at the door and then you breakthrough like the
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kool-aid man. So let's see if we can
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breakthrough today and post a winning day with another six
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pack for today's sweats. So without further ado, let's
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dive right into it. I want to start off with, of
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course, Major League Baseball, because even though MLB is a
3:49
frustrating sport, it's still a sport that I love to grind every
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single day. And you got to have that long
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term marathon, not a Sprint approach because again, you
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could have and pretty much pretty decent start here MLB,
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but you could have a terrible April, a great May, and even
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better June and awful July. Like there's a lot of ups and
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downs. So just keep in mind it is super
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early. I think like 6% of the season
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has been played and we're only going to get better.
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That's another thing about baseball.
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You only get better as the season goes on as a data-driven
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better because you accumulate more betting systems, more
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information. You kind of figure out, hey
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these are the teams to bet against, these are the teams to
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bet on. So that's what gets me excited
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about continuing to grind each day in the arena.
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With that being said, let's get right into some sweats for
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today. Now I want to get the pot out
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quickly because this is an early game for me that I got down on.
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It is a three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time game.
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Seattle and Toronto. Now looking at this one guys,
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I'm going to go with the Jays shop round.
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I got the Jays at -115 so pretty good number here.
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Short chalk on Toronto. Some looks are as high as -120
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but what I like about this one is that this game open at pretty
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much a pick em. It was around -1 O 5 both sides
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and Publix down the middle 5050. Yet the Jays have gone minus one
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O 5 to -115. So theoretically in a vacuum
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this is what I call a 5050 line move.
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Theoretically line should move at all if the tickets are split.
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But we know that not all tickets are created equally.
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Some tickets are coming from average Joe bettors putting 5
5:12
bucks down betting on based on their gut instinct and bias.
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And then you have other bets coming from wise guys who have
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an edge, who know what they're doing, who have their respect to
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the book. So the fact that it's 5050 at
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Toronto went from -1 O 5 to -115, even see one book at -120
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tells me that wise guys when when this open out of pick them,
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said, hey we got Toronto as a favorite here.
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Let's hammer a discrepancy play and hit the Jays.
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Now I should have mentioned this little background.
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Jays are six and six. They've won the first two games
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of the series. They won five to two, then they
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won five to three. So this is your final game of
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the series. Looking for the sweep here.
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Pitching match up. The Mariners who are four and
5:49
eight are going with Logan Gilbert O&O 3.55 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by you say Kachuki the lefty O and one but
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a 2.79 ERA. So in addition to the 5050 line
6:00
move, we have a slightly better bats here, better offense for
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Toronto hitting 216 versus 211, as well as a much better on base
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percentage. So get guys on, get them over,
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get them in hitting on base. OBP 313 versus 278 for Seattle.
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Now other supplementary Nuggets here that would benefit Toronto,
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they're two and O at home, Seattle's one and four on the
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road. This is also quasi day game,
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basically 3:00, but the Jays are five and two in day games.
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The Mariners are O and five and then also I was leaning a little
6:33
bit toward the over here. The roof is open at Rogers
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Center. The wind is blowing out about
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60°, seven to 10 mile per hour. Winds blowing out to center.
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Good bet. Split here, 54% bets, 82% Money
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is on the over and a lot of these eight and a halfs or a lot
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of these eights are juiced up 8 / -, 115 -, 120.
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So if you like the over here, I'm not going to argue with you,
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but I'm going to go with Toronto.
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Here I'm going to back a hot team.
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Hopefully complete the sweep at a pretty decent number and
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Seattle's a team that I kind of like going into the year and
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sometimes Seattle does this. They start still they get hot
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later in the year and at some point on the pod I want to look
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at maybe adjusted win total opportunities.
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Teams that start off great that maybe we think will regress or
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start off poorly. We think we'll they'll regress
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positively. So at some point we're going to
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have to maybe look give it a little bit more time here but
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look at some adjusted win totals we Add all up guys. 5050 sharp
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line move. I'm going Toronto here.
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Let's go. Jays hopefully start the day off
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with a winner at -115. Keep on cruising.
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I got a total for you. Let's go to a four O 7 Eastern
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Time first pitch between Tampa Bay and the LA Angels.
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Now what do I like about this one?
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First off, I'll mention a little bit of dip toward the Angels.
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You know, you had like Tampa Bay -125, -, 130.
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They're down to like -120 -, 115.
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So maybe some smart money like the Angels if you do like that
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side. But I'm going to go with the OVA
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here. The OVA, what I like about this
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one is it opened at 9:00 with the total and it's really juiced
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up, 9 /, -, 115 -, 120. So we like to call this painted.
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That means when you're looking at your live odds page, every
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book is in unison leaning in the same direction.
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So we have juiced up overs across the board.
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I see one book who actually went to 9 1/2, and you'll see this in
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baseball, you know a lot where you know there's a triggering
8:16
number and then when it moves, the sharps don't like it as
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much. So like the triggering number
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here is the over 9. If this gets up to 9 1/2, you
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know is there buy back on the under, you know is there
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agreement sometimes maybe it will rise a full run.
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That's kind of rare. But my whole point being is if
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you like this over and I'm playing this over 9, you want to
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make sure you get that nine because again it's five to
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four-game you want to push that bet.
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You don't want to lose an over 9 1/2.
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But aside from the juice liability over a great bet split
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to the over only 46% bets but 61% of the money is going over,
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this is actually kind of a contrarian over opportunity.
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Less than half the tickets but more than half the money should
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be a great day if anyone's you know in Anaheim tonight 80° it's
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going to be windy to center so this would classify as a windy
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over 7 to 10 mph blowing out to dead center.
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If you look at windy over so far to start the year overs they
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progressed a little bit. They're down to 54% but windy
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overs 5 mile an hour or more blowing out to center are 11 and
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858% to start this year. Now pitching match up here Zach
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Littell one and O 0.82 ERA he's been good, but Jose Soriano
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going for the Angels O and 14.5 OERA so for the bats can get
9:30
going here. Now Tampa's hitting 253 Angels
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are hitting 2:30 so not you know the greatest Tampa 253 isn't bad
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as a team. What I'm going to do is kind of
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bet against this pitching staff because both teams have over
9:44
above 5 ER as Tampa Bay is a 5.25 LA Angels are a 5.2 O.
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These are two of the worst teams pitching wise to start the year
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and they have the two the two worst bullpens to start the
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year. Tampa Bay's pen has a 6.9 ERA.
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Angel's pen has a 6.43 ERA. So hopefully you get, I don't
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know, four to four-game going into the 7th and the bullpen
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gives it up. And both of these teams are
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profitable to the over. The Angels are seven and four to
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the over. Tampa Bay is 7 and five to the
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over, but we have a juiced up over 9.
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We have a great bet split. We have bad bullpens, bad
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pitching, 2 over teams, wind blowing out.
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I'm going to take a shot on Tampa Bay LA over 9.
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I got over 9 at -115. Keep on cruising.
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This series has frustrated me. Cubs in San Diego because I bet
10:31
the Cubs in the game in the first game that an 8 nothing
10:34
lead and blew it. And then I noticed that the Cubs
10:36
were sharp yesterday. But I said you just screwed me.
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I'm not going to go give you more money.
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What happens? The Cubs won.
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They're like plus 145 down to plus 1/20.
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I should have played them. So here I am trying to salvage a
10:47
win here in this series and I'm going to go with the fathers.
10:50
Give me the Padres guys. Padres jumped out to me.
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That's a really sharp steam move for tonight.
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Again, this is the rubber match you had.
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The Padres won the first one. Cubs won the second one.
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Pitching match Up here. Kyle Hendricks, the veteran
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ready for the Cubs O and 111.74 ERA.
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He's struggled a bit here to start Dylan Cease who the Padres
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picked up in the offseason O and one 3.38 ERA.
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But this to me is all about the steam on the San Diego Padres.
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The Padres opened rounding -135. Home favorite pods are now up to
11:20
-145. Some looks even closer, like
11:23
-150. So one way movement in favor of
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San Diego. Now this would classify as
11:28
another 5050 line move because the public split makes sense.
11:32
These teams have split the first two games.
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How do you not take the Cubs with some plus money but yet San
11:36
Diego at home? That's you know kind of
11:38
appealing as well. But 5050, yet big steam towards
11:41
San Diego, So tells me smart money is on the pods here.
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Now I'm going to bank on hopefully Kendricks or Kyle
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Hendricks getting knocked around because he's giving up four,
11:51
five runs in four innings against the Dodgers, Five runs
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in 3.2 innings against the Rangers.
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Hopefully the bats of San Diego get to Hendricks here, and this
12:00
was a little bit of a lean to the over for me as well.
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Eight over is juiced up -115 Chicago 7:00 and 4:00 to the
12:06
over and it's about 70% bets, 85% money to the over.
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But I'm just going to go with San Diego here.
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This is a game that overnight, early morning, early afternoon,
12:16
all steam in favor of San Diego. No buyback on the Cubs.
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Let's go San Diego fathers. I got San Diego at -145.
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Then last bet of the night. For me, this is what I would
12:27
call a value play. Not exactly a sharp play.
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And who am I talking about? I'm talking about the Baltimore
12:34
Orioles. I'm going to take a shot on the
12:36
OS today, guys. Now I think the important thing
12:38
is when you're betting a game, know why you're betting a game.
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Are you betting a game because of a great contrarian
12:44
opportunity, a great sharp line move, a good bet split, a good
12:47
betting system? Like, what's the reason why
12:49
you're betting a game 99 times out of 100?
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It's going to be, hey, it's just a classic system play.
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That means it's a, you know, sharp line move, low bets,
12:57
higher dollars, good system match.
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We're checking off, you know, the majority of the boxes that
13:01
we always look at. But sometimes there there are
13:03
value plays where you feel like the value is so good it's worth
13:07
a shot. That's what I mean here on
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Baltimore now, the Boston Red Sox are a contrarian favorite.
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The Red Sox open this one around -110.
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They pretty much stayed -110 even though 60% of bets are
13:19
going with Baltimore. So if you tell me you like the
13:21
Red Sox as a fade, the trendy dog contrarian favorite, I'm not
13:25
going to argue with you. But if you're going to give me
13:27
the Orioles with basically even money little bit of plus money
13:31
against the Red Sox team that I think is maybe on the verge of
13:35
going back to their losing ways. I got to take this.
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So I'm going Baltimore shop round.
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I got Baltimore at plus 100 even money.
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Now a couple things to like about Baltimore.
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They are a divisional dog and a dog in a high total game.
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So divisional dogs built in familiarity levels of playing
13:51
field benefits the the dog with the plus money dog high total
13:54
this total is 9 is also a good thing for a dog.
13:57
More expected run scored more variance more upset
14:00
opportunities. Now, pitching matchup doesn't
14:02
look great for Baltimore. Irvin the lefty.
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He's O and one 7.2 OERA. He'll be opposed by Cutter
14:07
Crawford, who has been great O&O, but it's 0.84 ERA.
14:11
But here's one system to think about tonight.
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I'll give you one more factor to like Baltimore.
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Do you guys know who the number one team was last year when they
14:18
were a dog? That's right, the OS.
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The Orioles went 44 and 34 last year as a dog, 56%.
14:26
Because of the plus money payouts.
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That was nearly a 25% ROI and 19 units one.
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They were the number one dog team in MLB.
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So if you're giving me another dog opportunity with the
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Orioles, who are the same if not better than last year and return
14:40
all the same players to me, it's a worthwhile bet.
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Now, two other factors here 1. Jackson Holiday.
14:47
I tweeted this out earlier today, but Jackson Holiday, the
14:51
son of Matt. You know you're getting old when
14:52
you remember Matt Holiday playing the Red Sox in the World
14:55
Series and now his kid is the #1 prospect in baseball.
14:57
But anyway, Jackson Holiday got called up.
15:00
I was looking at. I tweeted this out from my
15:02
Twitter account at Josh under score Insights.
15:05
But the AO Rookie of the Year odds.
15:07
Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter are your two favourites.
15:10
Langford plus 225. Carter plus 310.
15:13
Holiday is third favorite plus 3:20.
15:16
So if you tell me you want to put a half unit or a unit on
15:18
Holiday plus 320, I'm not going to argue with you.
15:20
Now I already bet Langford earlier I want to say I got him
15:23
around plus 300. But again, Holiday, that's if if
15:27
basically he plays as well or if he's as good as everyone's
15:30
saying, you know, he could be the favorite here in short
15:32
order. Now the second factor to bet
15:35
against the Red Sox is this team has got some issues.
15:38
They had a really good start. Obviously I'm a Red Sox fan, I
15:41
follow it closely. But the Red Sox had a great
15:43
start. They were seven and three to
15:44
start the year. They come home, the wheels are
15:47
starting to fall off. Trevor Story is out for the
15:49
year. He's the new Chris Sale,
15:51
basically who's made of Made of Glass.
15:53
Then also you have Nick Pavetta on the DL.
15:56
And then now you also have issues with just bad errors,
16:01
mental lapses, dropping the ball in left field.
16:04
Jaron Duran yesterday shortstop is now a question mark.
16:07
This is a team with the Red Sox who had a great start, but I'm
16:11
wondering if they're going back to losing weight.
16:12
So if you're giving me Baltimore even money, I'm going to take it
16:15
every time. Give me Baltimore guys at plus
16:17
100. So Toronto, San Diego, Baltimore
16:20
and Tampa Bay Angels over 9. Now over to the NBA because I
16:25
got 2 bets for you in the NBA tonight and then I have a
16:28
futures bet to finish off today's pot.
16:30
So two bets here in the NBA. First one I'm going to look
16:34
toward is Raptors and Nets. Raptors and Nets Tonight.
16:38
It's a 7:30 PM Eastern Time game and I'm seeing some sharp
16:41
movement here toward this. Over now.
16:44
If you look at the line movement here, this total opened around
16:48
218 1/2. It's now been bet up to 221.
16:52
Some looks for even 221 1/2. I looked at the bet split, 64%
16:56
bets, 79% of the money is on the over.
17:00
So again, 2/3 of bets, but nearly 80% of money is on the
17:03
over tells me the bigger sharper wagers are going over here.
17:07
Now both these teams are eliminated from the postseason.
17:10
So we have seen one thing here in the month of April where
17:14
overs are back to being very good.
17:16
They're 41 and 3058% in the month of April.
17:20
And if you dig deeper, it's a lot of these teams that are
17:22
eliminated from the postseason that are cashing the over.
17:25
So basically you're looking at, you don't really care.
17:28
You got nothing to play for. You're not going to make the
17:30
postseason. I translate that to you don't
17:34
really care and you don't really, you know, dig deep on
17:36
defense. So maybe these are like more
17:38
exhibition games with less pressure, more offense, less
17:41
defense. That's the way I look at it now,
17:43
the Raptors in particular, even though you probably can't name
17:46
any other starters, they're four and one to the over in the month
17:49
of April. Now, Toronto is quick in terms
17:51
of pace. They're the 11th fastest team in
17:53
terms of pace this year, and defensive efficiency, both
17:57
really bad. Toronto is 25th, defensive
18:00
efficiency. Brooklyn is 21st.
18:03
Toronto, last couple games they lost 140 to 123.
18:07
They won 1:30 to 1:22. So they've been scoring a lot of
18:11
points. They've been given up a lot of
18:12
points. And then also you look at the
18:15
referees tonight two out of the three refs are big over refs.
18:19
Brandon Schwab and Carl Lane 52 to 54% to the over.
18:23
But this is kind of a game that it's not very heavily bet.
18:26
It's not a sexy game. It's two bad teams yet why are
18:29
Sharps hammering this over If we get an up and down you know big
18:33
open game lot of scoring, not much defense.
18:35
That's what I'm going to bank on.
18:36
So I'm going Raptors and Nets over 221 last bet of the night.
18:43
It's moving right now which we're losing some value.
18:46
I got to get this pod uploaded and producing out here but it's
18:49
a late game Suns and Clippers. So Suns.
18:52
Clippers This is a sharp under play I'm going under here.
18:56
Suns Clippers. Total open 227.
18:59
It got down to 224 1/2. When I'll tell you guys this,
19:01
when I get ready to do the pod, I do some prep for about an hour
19:05
and a half. After I've looked at overnight
19:07
and monitored you know the games, I start to whittle down.
19:10
You know, pick my games. I have a notebook that I write
19:13
all my plays in which is basically my script for the
19:15
podcast and I wrote down under 224 1/2 and that was literally 5
19:20
seconds before he started the pod.
19:22
Now a good thing is this under keeps getting hit.
19:24
A bad thing is it keeps moving so much.
19:26
So now that 224 1/2 is down to 2:23 so this line is falling as
19:31
we speak. I'm still going to play it,
19:34
we'll call it now an under 223, but a great bet split to the
19:37
under 46% bets. 80% of the money is on the under.
19:42
So again that is a huge low bets, higher dollars bet
19:45
discrepancy. We have three under refs which
19:48
hopefully will be a benefit here.
19:50
Scott Twardowski, David Guthrie and Nick Buchert all between 51
19:54
and 53% to the under. Now the other other angle here
19:57
to be aware of is both these teams are on the second leg of a
20:00
back-to-back and they actually played each other last night and
20:04
you had the Clippers win one O 5 to 92.
20:08
So obviously sailed under here. I know there's some issues with
20:11
injuries. I want to say Kawhi Leonard may
20:13
be out. I believe James Harden might be
20:16
out. So you got a lot of backups in
20:18
here because this line is shooting up to the Suns.
20:20
They were -3. Now they're all the way up to -7
20:22
1/2. But I'm going to play this under
20:24
here. You also have, in terms of pace
20:26
to slower teams, Phoenix #15, the Clippers #22, they're both
20:31
top 15 defensive efficiency, so they're slow and they play good
20:35
defence. Clippers #14, Phoenix #13.
20:38
And if you are both on playing the second leg of a
20:41
back-to-back, take the Under. If it is a conference game, both
20:45
back-to-back, take the under conference game 17 and 10 to the
20:47
under 63%. So it's a good sign this line
20:51
keeps falling, but again, it's not a great sign that we're
20:54
losing some value. Hopefully it doesn't even come
20:55
close at this point. Now we're looking at under 223
20:59
Suns and Clippers. Now to finish off the pod.
21:03
I told you that I had a futures play for you, so I want to give
21:05
you an update and I always love betting futures because it gives
21:09
you something to look forward to.
21:11
Like in the midst of March Madness when every you know
21:14
contrarian dog is getting brought to the woodshed, I said
21:16
oh, at least I still got Yukon I can root for to win the title at
21:19
11 to one. I love futures because it's a
21:21
bankroll builder. It's something to look forward
21:23
to. If you do your homework you can
21:25
get good numbers and if you look at it this way, like if you're a
21:27
5050 better but you kill your futures, you're going to be
21:30
profitable better. Think of it the other way, maybe
21:33
you suck at futures but you're good on a daily basis.
21:35
Maybe then you bet less futures, but whole point being is you
21:38
want to always know that you can make money in both ways.
21:41
Betting daily for your daily grind, you know day-to-day bet
21:45
basis versus betting futures and then hopefully getting some good
21:49
plus money payouts. So with that being said, I want
21:51
to give you an update on these NBA awards.
21:54
So I mentioned this, I hinted at it earlier to start the pod, but
21:57
we are looking good with Yokich. I'm actually going to pull up my
21:59
app right now because I want to give you the exact numbers that
22:02
I got here with my bets. So hold on one second.
22:06
Pulling up my app, logging in, of course.
22:08
Shop around so that you can get the best number.
22:11
But I'm going to go to my bets. Let me see.
22:14
They're making me log in and geolocating, which of course
22:18
they got to do. But anyway, here we go.
22:20
So MVP, the whole point being is a lot of these are unbettable,
22:24
but they're great for us because we got good numbers.
22:27
If you had listened to my previous podcast before All
22:29
Systems Go got released, But Nicola Yokich, I got Yokich at
22:33
plus 1/25. I placed that bet on January
22:37
29th. He is now -3000.
22:41
So let's go Yokich MVP. But now these -3000, you can't
22:45
bet that number. It's way too it's way too
22:47
expensive, too much risk, no reward.
22:50
Rookie of the Year, Victor Wenbanyama.
22:52
I got Wenbanyama. Let me double check this.
22:55
I think I placed this like at the very beginning of the year.
22:58
I think it was -125. He is now -10,000.
23:02
So let's go Wemby. There's a portion of the year
23:05
where Chet Holmgren overlapped Wemby and I got a little
23:08
nervous, but great to see Wemby. Huge favorite now, but again,
23:11
it's unbetable. It's moved too much.
23:13
Most Improved Player, Tyrese Maxie.
23:17
I bet Tyrese Maxie at plus 100 even money that was on, let's
23:23
see 11:20. So November 20th, he is now
23:28
Tyrese Maxie -1600. Now I didn't bet this one
23:32
Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert is -3000 again.
23:34
I see a lot of people on Twitter banging the drum for Wemby
23:37
Rookie of the Year or sorry for Wemby Defensive Player of the
23:40
Year, which again he has a good case, but Wemby Yama is not even
23:44
close. Like I trust the betting market,
23:46
Gobert's probably going to win this thing even though I know
23:48
blocks and steals stacks. They like to call it how Wemby
23:52
Yama's actually better. But anyway, if you're holding
23:55
Gobert Rook Defensive Player of the Year, you're looking good.
23:57
So with that being said, there's one award left that isn't like a
24:01
-, 3000, -, 10,000, -, 1600, -, 3000.
24:06
In my opinion, it's still a bettable number.
24:08
And you know what that is? It is 6th man of the year.
24:13
Malik Monk. I'm going with Malik Monk now.
24:16
What I like about this one is the BET splits.
24:19
I got a new batch of data today from BET MGM and Malik Monk is
24:23
your favorite twin 6th man of the year.
24:25
But he's not -10,000, he's -145, so it's not a terrible number
24:30
here. -145 also, when I'm looking at these, the data that
24:35
I get from regardless of the book, I lean on DraftKings, Ben
24:38
MGM, the big ones 'cause they've taken the most action from the
24:42
public as well as some wise guys.
24:44
But Malik Monk is getting 16% of tickets, 33% of the money, so
24:50
that is a great bet split Malik Monk, His number one competitor
24:54
is Naz Reed. I I tweeted this out and someone
24:56
said, well what about Naz Reed? Well Nas Reed's he's right
24:59
there. He's plus one O 511% bets 20%
25:02
money. Now Monk is injured right now so
25:06
that's one thing that worries me but Monk also still played 72
25:10
games so again you got to play 65 games to qualify for the
25:13
award. But Monk is the bigger bet.
25:16
Split bets to dollars so 16 percent, 33% that's a 17%
25:20
difference. Nas Reed is again like 12% bets,
25:24
20% money, 8% difference, so bigger difference with Malik
25:28
Monk. And then you also look at one
25:31
thing that I'm wondering in Monk's 15.4 points per game, 72
25:35
games played, zero starts. If you look at Naz Reed, he
25:38
started 13 games. I know it's not a lot, but if
25:41
you look at Malcolm Brogdon last year, who won the award, which
25:44
you're able to cash on my previous pod in another
25:48
lifetime. But Brogdon didn't start a
25:50
single game. He came off the bench every
25:52
game. Naz Reed started 13, so you know
25:55
six. Man, are they going to hold that
25:56
against him? I don't know.
25:57
That's just one thing that maybe I'm reading too much into.
26:00
But 72 games for Monk, Zero starts, 15 points a game, 16%
26:04
bets, 33% money. I bet today Malik Monk to win
26:09
the 6th Man of the Year award, I got him at -145.
26:13
So let's see if we can add another futures bet, hopefully
26:16
to our portfolio. But that about does it for
26:19
today's episode of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
26:22
Podcast, Episode 20. Can you believe we we're up to
26:25
20 episodes. We're just flying by here.
26:28
But reminder, if you enjoy the All Systems Go pod.
26:31
If you want to make me happy and help me promote the All Systems
26:34
Go Sports betting podcast, then I have a couple things I I'm
26:38
going to ask of you. One the most important thing you
26:40
can do to help me get this pod to grow is give it five stars on
26:44
on Spotify as well as iTunes. So give it five stars if if
26:50
you're available to give a good review, that would mean a lot to
26:52
me as well. But give this pod five stars,
26:54
especially on Spotify, that's really important.
26:57
And then also you can follow the All Systems Go Twitter page,
27:00
which I tweet out all the episodes from, as well as my
27:03
personal accounts. You can follow at under score
27:06
ASG under score Podcast or at Josh under score Insights and
27:11
that would mean a lot to me as well.
27:13
Secondly, if you enjoyed these type of breakdowns again, I hope
27:16
every bet wins. Realistically, not every bet is
27:19
going to win. Sports betting is hard.
27:20
Again, if you haven't realized that yet, let me make it easy on
27:23
you. It's difficult, so you got to
27:24
keep grinding. But if this style of betting
27:27
makes sense to you, has helped you becoming sharper better, has
27:30
taken away your bias, has helped you to cash them tickets by
27:34
taking a more contrarian approach, looking at line
27:36
movement and betting systems. If any of that is the case and
27:38
you want to learn more about sports betting from a
27:40
data-driven perspective, then I have another ask of you.
27:44
Can you go buy my book? Support the team, Go to
27:46
Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to Sports
27:49
betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a
27:51
friend. It's the sharp contrarian Bible.
27:53
How lines are set. How and why they move.
27:55
How to read line movement. How to locate sharp action.
27:58
How to place a bet in person or online.
27:59
How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
28:01
management plan. All included in the everything
28:04
guide to sports betting. So that being said, guys, other
28:07
pod here in the books. Whether I see you at the encore
28:10
in Boston Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield, at the
28:16
at the where up at the I'm starting to forget all my my
28:20
spiel here at the end. Let's just go right to the
28:22
desert. Whether I see you at the desert
28:24
at the South point. Sweat and sharpen train plays.
28:26
Getting the lowest juice possible going to circa jumping
28:29
in the pool. When you cash a big ticket,
28:31
wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me and show me a
28:33
Dodgers ticket from last night. A Yankees ticket from last
28:36
night. A magic Rockets over 215.
28:39
Whatever you do, don't show me that Guardians ticket.
28:42
Come on Guardians, you come back all the way from down O five
28:45
only to screw us late. That one was frustrating.
28:48
But anyway, guys flash that ticket.
28:50
First one's on me, next one's on you.
28:51
We're going to post about the book Sweat sharp can train plays
28:54
all night long. Lastly, you know I got to end
28:57
the pod with this. Have you done your homework and
29:00
signed up for a free rhythm trial?
29:02
Rhythm Powers This pod. Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports
29:05
betting app for data backed picks and props.
29:07
And Oh my God, Gary Garrison is crushing rhythm.
29:09
But rhythm is great, and I want you guys to take advantage and
29:12
profit using Rhythm's advanced AI models for both.
29:16
Again, pics and props, but you got to sign up a specific way.
29:19
If you're on Spotify, you can just click the description of
29:22
the bio of the pod and there's a link there to sign up for
29:24
rhythm. That's probably the easiest way
29:26
to do it if you're on Spotify. Or you can just go to my Twitter
29:29
page or the All Systems Go Twitter page.
29:31
At the very top of our pages there is a pinned tweet with a
29:35
custom link. Click that, get signed up.
29:37
Give rhythm a shot. Allow allow rhythm to help you
29:40
make smart bets. And again, rhythm is great.
29:43
And I know they're great because a lot of guys who started rhythm
29:46
guys and gals, they went to MIT. Are we going to bet against
29:49
goodwill hunting and MIT? No, we're not.
29:52
So I'm so thankful that rhythm powers this pod.
29:55
And I know you guys are using rhythm to your advantage, which
29:58
is great to see. But anyway, guys, that about
30:00
does it. So my parting words, as always,
30:03
stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
30:05
yourself on the side of the house.
30:06
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:08
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
30:11
But always remember we are playing the long game and if we
30:13
can consistently get down on those sweet spots, Games that
30:16
fit our model against the public, with the house, with the
30:19
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, Get some CLV.
30:22
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
30:25
So enjoy the sweats, everyone. Another six pack here tonight.
30:28
Let's get that four and two day and get some.
30:30
Get some plus money and make some money.
30:32
But good luck everyone. Have a great Wednesday.
30:34
We'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 21 of the All Systems Go
30:37
Sports Betting Podcast. Good luck.