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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | 10/11/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear. We lift up what's going on.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Everybody Happy Thursday. Whenever you're watching Friday Saturday, we're talking
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: UFC like always. I'm joined by my man, a big
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Marley twelve fight card. We had thirteen fights a couple
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: hours ago. We're just used to it by now. Balter
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Walker Mohammed usman out. They said they're not sure if
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get Walker replacement. I'd be a little surprised.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: It's all the way in Brazil four pm Eastern Star time,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: but yeah, this late, I'm expecting us to keep the
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: twelve fights. Hey, if we get all twelve fights, though,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty solid DFS card at great
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: main event, talking DFS, talking real life. Excited to break
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that down, Excited to break down the whole card. We
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: got Ben in here, little neck, Hysn Dan Hey, shout
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: out to our man. Ysn took down the Mini Max
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: within insane chop last week, good stuff. I saw the
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Algebrera Rio was on that one as well. I needed
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Ank alive to outscore Edmund Shabazi and for sixty five
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: k over here would have been a five way chop.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: One to eleven was a lot. I knew I was
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: a dog. Hey, put yourself in the spot, give yourself
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: a chance. I was wanting Prairie to do that same
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: game plan. Come out there like a man man, give
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Anklaia a chance to bink them in under a minute.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So I was loving every second of it. Obviously, I
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: didn't think he was a favorite in that type of fight,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: but needed one to eleven over here, what's going on? Dave
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Dan did hint at it? Tambo mentioned, So we are
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: giving away two course abers him and Chip in nation
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: memberships today. One of them. YSN. You let me know
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: if you remember or not right now. Ben was the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: first one in here. We've given one to Way, given
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: one away to Ben in the past, and Ben, I
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: actually brought you up last week. Yeah, Ben here for
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit, so I was hoping everything's well. It's
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: good to see HYSN always been in here watching live. YSM.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Let me know if you're a member or not, and
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: if you're not, you will get the first one. We
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: will have one more to give away later though that
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: we're gonna think of some way to some way to
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: do that. So if you're not a member, let us
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: know in chat that you would like to there you go, YSM,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: so why send email info at ship a Nation dot com.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: At ship a Nation dot com. Again, we're giving two ways,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: so one more after that. You're always in here supporting,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: we would love to have you, So email info at
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: shipnation dot com say that you're YSN. You were picked
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: on the MMA show and you will get one core
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: ship a Nation membership. So shout out to you, hey,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: if you're not a member. We also up above you
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: can see five days for nineteen dollars using the code
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: ship nineteen. No better time to get in MMA, NFL,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: college football, MLB playoffs, Nascar. I mean, you name it,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: we got it going. It's the best time of the year.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Five dollars for nine or five days for nineteen bucks.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: You cannot beat that deal. But we will be giving
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: away one ninety nine core and sabers and package later
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: on as well. Big Marley, are we doing today? Twelve fights? Excited?
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Good? Yeah?
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: I mean always excited for Charles olavera card spoiler. I'm
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: a little biased on this one, but I think it's
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: a pretty solid card. I was I was really planning
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: on going all in on Walter Walker. So I am
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: hoping that they get him a replacement. I mean, I
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: don't know if I'm still going to go all in
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: on them after this point, but I just think that
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: was such a perfect matchup for him.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: But it is heavyweight in Brazil.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: I feel like they can find somebody to take that spot,
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: so maybe we'll end up getting somebody there. We could
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: possibly still have somewhat of a free square, but even
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: without it, it's a pretty good card. I haven't really
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: spent too much time building lineup, so maybe I'll do
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: that as we go along.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: But I know I'm gonna be heavy on Charles Oliverta
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: this week.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, I like it. Yeah, You're absolutely right, Dave. I
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: mean no regret from doing the bet. I think I
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: thought Corey looked good until he got banked. Rob's just
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: that guy. I messed up my script with the new
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: lineup groups and stuff on Sabersim, Like I was doing
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: like my one or my forty or whatever I had
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: in the main and then like my hundred, like somehow
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: it got all messed up where I accidentally had like
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent mora. I was so concentrated on the
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: main stuff, like it just Sabersim gave me like the
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: top what they thought was the top sims and put
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: them all in that contest. So I was looked after him, like,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: what the heck I had one hundred percent. I got
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: lucky on this stuff I had. Yeah, but I learned
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: my lesson. I had a bunch of Corey and stuff
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: in the three dollars. Hey, it's it's good to see it, Ben.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I know you've been dealing with that, but that's awesome,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: awesome stuff that we can help out just for an hour.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Hope your day, your health, everything does get better. We
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: appreciate you coming in here for sure. Yeah. Any broadslide
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: overview Big Marley like, I see you have one two
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: five star fights, one two, three, four, five four star
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: fights on a twelve fight card. That's pretty good seeing
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: majority of the fights four or five stars. Any broad
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: sleep before we go fight by.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: Fight Now, I might end up changing those as we
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: go through this card. I knocked those out in the
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: last like ten minutes or so, and I feel like
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: the last couple of times we've done a podcast, you've
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: talked me into changing a couple of them. So I
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: really just looking forward to getting into it. There's a
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: couple of fights. I'm right in the middle. The ones
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: are all threes in the middle. I'm kind of hoping
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: you can lean me one way or another. Those are
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: the ones I can be swayed on. But other than that,
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: I feel good about a.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Side or another.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, last week I leaned you into Macy and
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Nathy couldn't have looked anywhere. So hopefully we don't have
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: something like that. Dude, all right, let's take it away.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: The first fight of the nights Lawan la serrata minus
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: two fifty five simon Oli Area plus two to fifteen
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Let's fights minus three fifty to finish, Laserrata great inside
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the distance Propp minus one seventy five olive Era plus
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: three fifty on the way back, I'll throw it to
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: you to start this one off right away. What are
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: we doing, ah man?
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: I feel like we're gonna have to use it just
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: because we have a minus four hundred fight ins inside
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: the distance. These are two guys we can't necessarily trust.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: Neither one of them are really winners in the UFC.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: Both of them are primarily grapplers low and that's good
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: for DFS. Olivera really has no chin at this point,
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: and to me, the line looks like people could not
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: wait to see the name Simon Olivera and just bet
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: against him, because nothing yells out that Lwandler Sta should
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: be a minus two fifty favorite. To me, he is younger,
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: he's got more potential, he hasn't been embarrassed as many
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: times in the UFC.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: He's got that going for him.
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: But he didn't strike me as a great wrestler who's
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: gonna just go out there and dominate Olivera on the ground.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: And he's not a power puncher who's gonna really test
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: Olivera's chin. So I think this is a fight that
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: could go either way in a grappling contest, and either
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: one of them could get submitted. So I have a
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: feeling I might be a little underweight on the Laserta
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: side and overweight on the Alavera side, which which is gross.
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: But I don't see anybody Roster and Olivera on this card,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: and I think that they'll just chase after the fade
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: and be on the the LASERDA make him a little
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: bit heavier own than he should be in my opinion,
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: So I'm not sure on this one ownership wise, but
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: I think I'll end up having more lineups with Laserda,
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: but more leverage with ALIVERA.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Makes a lot of sense. I very well might be
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the same. Like I just want to play a lot
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of this fight now right away. You see the last
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: name Laserda, you might be thinking Daniel Laserda, the guy
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: that was zero five and one in the UFC. That
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I mean it was running around the octagon against C. J. Rigara,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the guy that we literally went all in in almost
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: every single one of his fights. It's not him, but
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: this Laserda is he only has two fights in the UFC,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: both of them in twenty twenty three. So to me
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: a minus two forty five favorite when you haven't fought
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: in two years, there's it's very interesting to see that.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: It's like you said, it's almost a bet against OLIVERA.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: People just don't want to pick him. This odds. Like
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: you mentioned, the inside of the distance is good, but
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the submission prop Lserraa's plus one hundred by submission Olivera's
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: plus six hundred. We got Laserda in round one plus
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: two hundred. This fight minus three fifty to finish dig
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: the overtook a little money. It was minus four hundred
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: on Monday, but man seeing minus three fifty to finish,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy five for Laserata, plus two hundred inside
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: the distance. He's an easy click and he's someone that
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: you can go to Pluggin Mesquita and go all the
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: way to Lasara and leave seven night or leave seven hundred.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: You aren't giving up much upside at all. Olivera, if
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be pretty lowan, which I think he kind
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of will be, he's got to be one of my
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: favorite dogs on the card. I mean, I think Lasarrada
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: will be decently high owned, so you get some leverage.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I mean it's minus three fifty to finish if he wins,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: plus two to ten, isn't crazy? Like how does he
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: not score in this fight, especially if you think it
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: mainly plays out on the mat. So I easily could
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: have more Olivera to the field than Laserta. I wouldn't
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: be I mean, if I've overweight on both guys, I
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: would honestly like it. I like how people get scared
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: of the first fights of the night. They're all independent
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: to each other. It means nothing. This is a fight.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I probably want to get overweight on both sides. It
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: can hit them at heavily favored to finish and people
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: will want to click on more known names. I think
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: like their ownership is gonna be there. But for the
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: casuals that want to play people they know only building
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: a couple lineups, they don't know these two names, so
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: maybe they go to overlooked just a little bit in
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: that aspect. Anything else to add on that one.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Off memory.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: I think that Olivera has never been submitted in his career,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: but he has double digit submissions. I do think La
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: Serrata has around ten submissions as well, but he has
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: been subbed once himself, So I sometimes do look at
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: that when it comes to fights that I think are
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: going to take place on the ground, people who have.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Never been subbed before.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: It's hard to think that this is gonna be the
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: first time, but he should play out on the ground.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think it's a good fight to target,
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: and it's closer to a five star than it is
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: a three star.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: For one one hundred percent agree, Yeah, that's interesting. And
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: you see the guy that's never been subbed, Oliver or
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Userta's subprop open plus one thirty five and has taken
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: a good bit of money plus one hundred, So that's
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: how books seen it go down with Serrata buy sub
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling to the next fight on the card.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: The second biggest favorites, actually, excuse me, the third biggest
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: favorite on the card. Julia Palastree minus five fifty, Caroly
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Nicola Kaevitch plus four hundred plus two to fifty for
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish plaste two plus two to fifty
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: inside the distance, Colda Kaevitch plus twelve hundred, So some
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: money has come in on the under almost on the
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Plastery side. As you see, it was plus three hundred
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: to finish now plus two fifty, and Polastie was plus
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: three twenty five inside the distance now plus two fifty.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: She's like the same as basherat Zilal and hardy for
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: me last week. Maybe a little stronger since I do
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: think the upper tier might be a little weaker this week.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: And plus two to fifty inside the distance is pretty good.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I'll throw it two. Do you think there's any wrestling
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: upside in this one? And I see you having a
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: one star, so it doesn't look like you're getting to
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: this fight at all. But what if the past Pilaster
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: gets there, Are you gonna play any core, Carolina?
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: I think this is kind of like the hardy fight
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: for me last week, where I'm just not gonna pay
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: ninety four hundred dollars for Pilastere.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Almost got that first round, sub Oh dude, I was.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Sweating it to you, right she did.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: I was, I was actually gonna be pissed. Yeah, me too,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: but then she I didn't even see her final score.
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: I knew it wasn't gonna be enough. But I think
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: it is similar to that, but herbiing the one that
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: has more wrestling upside. Even one of them could mix
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: in takedowns here, But the way I see it is
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: that it's gonna mainly take place on the feet. KK
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: is probably like the more technical striker. She used to
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: be faster, but she's forty years old now slowing down.
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: She's not gonna be as high paced as she used
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: to be, So I think Pilaster is gonna be throwing
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: the harder shots. She'll keep up with her in the volume,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: and I think she has the slight wrestling edge. But
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: just ninety four hundred dollars is too much for me
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: to pay. So if I had to roster this fight
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: in any lineup, so I'm probably gonna have twenty or less,
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: I would guess, but if I'm handbuilding any lineup, so
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: I would rather click on the KK side of this one,
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: So full fade unless I do get to a little
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: bit of KK, because she's sixty eight hundred, it's WMMA,
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: so she is somewhat live and she could score around
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: ten X. And if that helps you get to some
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: other people that you really like and the upper range,
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: then I'm okay getting to her for that reason. But
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: I would need one hundred and fifty lineups before I
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: even started thinking about playing Pilastree.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely. This is one of my least favorite fights,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: if not my least favorite. I hardly get to any
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: of them. I mean, it's supposed to go the distance, Carolina.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Do you think Plastrew wrestles or do you think it's
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: fifteen minutes on the feet.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: I'd give her a one and a half takedown prop.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, So I mean, if it does mainly stand the feet,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Carolina gets back a sixty eight hundred dog that goes
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: fifteen minutes and averages over five significant strikes per minute.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: If we get a lot of favorites like we did
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: last week. I mean, if wick Clocks loses, you might
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: like Carolina was on the card and scored fifty, like
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that could be optimal on this card. So I agree
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Carolina is my preferred side.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: I don't.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I guess I like polast three maybe a little more
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: than Big Marley, just because the plus two to fifty
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. She's continued to take money and she'll
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: be super super low owned. Maybe in very chalky lineups,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: but it's clear as day, like when we get to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Joe Alvarez at ninety five hundred, just one hundred more,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: it's not likely that we see Polastree outscore him. So
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: and I'm not sure how many doubles spend lineups I want.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: The mid tier is strong this week, so not a
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: great fight at all, probably the worst on the card.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: KK my preferred side as well. Let's keep her rolling.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card, we have Lucas Hocha minus
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: one fourteen Stuart Nickel minus one oh six. This fight
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: is minus two hundred to finish plus one twenty on
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: the Hocha side inside the distance Nickel plus two fifty.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, man, just looking at all of that it
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: was minus one eighty to finish, now minus two hundred.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Hocha was minus one thirty Monday. Now it's pretty much
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: a pick him. So the under end Nicol has taken
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: some money. Sign me up on both sides of this one. Again,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: the mid tiers strong, so it'll keep the ownership in
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: check because the main events right there and we have
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: pinto Denise, but this fight's phenomenal. The mid tier is
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: super super strong. In my opinion, how do you see
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: this one going?
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it was kind of a striker versus
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: grappler matchup because Roacha is going to need to keep
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: this fight on the feet. He's got power and Nicol
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: can strike, but I think that this is not the
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: matchup you want to strike at because Roach's big weakness
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: is being able to stay on his feet. He's got
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: poor takedown defense and when he's on his back, he
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: can be kept there. And Nicol does like to wrestle.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: I think he's gonna go in there and shoot for
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: a takedown in the first minute and if he gets it,
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: he probably keeps it throughout the round and could put
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: some work in on the ground. And if Roacha can
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: get up, I think Nickel will chain wrestle in this one.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: So I like the underdog quite a bit here. He's
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: one of my he's my second favorite underdog on the
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: car you can guess my my first favorite. But I
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be low on the Roaches side. I'll get
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: a little bit. The more lineups i'll play, I'll get
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: a little bit, I guess. But if it was like
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: five or less lineups, I'd be really focused on the
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Nickel side. I think he should be the favorite in
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: this one because of that clear weakness on the Roaches side.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: And if Nicol won his last fight, he got the
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: takedown right away and then he got choked out with
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: the guillotine. I believe had that not happened, I think
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: we'd be looking at him at like minus two hundred here.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: So I like Nickel to win this fight on the ground.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I like the hoach A side too,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: just for the like you said, striker versus grapple, or
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: he's got power if he keeps it on the feet
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: minus two hundred to finish. I do think I agree,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: though Nickel might prefer play. It's pretty much a pick
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: them eight hundred savings. You get the wrestling upside and yeah,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I mean we talked about it in that fight. Like
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: Jesus Aguilar, he's just a guy. You cannot leave your
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: neck out there. He's one of the masters at the guillotine,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: so don't see that being a thread in this one.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: He'll be able to wrestle without worrying about getting his
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: neck taken. I think he has success good sophomore date
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: or sophomore bounce back spot, it looks like for him,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: and people are getting on that side. Again, was plus
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: one ten Monday now pretty much a pick them eight
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars savings, can easily leave it right there. So
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: I agree with you, but I do like coach as well.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Like I, he could knock out Nickel in round one.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: If he stuffs the takedowns eighty five hundred, he will
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: be lower owned, I think due to the pricing. And
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: again Gamrat Olivero Pinto Denise a very strong midsier there.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: So someone with upside and minus two hundred eighty minus
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: under to finish at eighty five hundred, you can do
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a lot worse than that. So I really like that
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: fight for DFS. All right, let's get too tied for
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the biggest favorite on the card in the highest priced
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: beatris Mosquito minus six fifty arena alex Seva plus four
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: seventy five minus two sixty for this fight to finish
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Mosquito minus two ten inside the distance alex Giva plus
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: eight hundred round one prop plus one seventy five Mosquito
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: And here we go another subprop that's got hammered. Mosquito
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: open plus one oh five by sub now minus one
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: thirty five and oh thirty four years old making her
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: UFC debut from LFA. Is the minus six fifty take
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: warranted and what does this do for DFS?
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's probably warranted.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: She's five and oh five and oh but she's got
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: a long grappling record. I mean, I think she's been
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: grappling since like early twenty ten's or something like that,
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: So she's been around and she's gonna want to get
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: this fight to the ground. When she does, I think
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: she can dominate there. She could, I mean, she's more
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: alive for the submission, but she could also just put
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: a ground of pound stoppage on alex Eva as well.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: I do think alex Eva will kind of accept takedowns
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: once it gets, you know, once she gets a hold
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: of her on the alex Eeva side, she does have
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: submissions in her game, but she's gonna want to keep
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: this fight on the feet. She's not really a good striker,
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: but she is an active striker, and she'll kind of
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: like she's just in at her limbs to try and
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: hurt her opponent. There's not like a lot of technique
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: there or anything, but if it is on the feet,
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: she should be winning those moments.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: But I don't think that's going to be the case.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: I think that Mosquito is gonna be going for he
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: takedowns early and often, and when she gets them, I
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: think she is gonna look dominant and she probably can
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: get a finish. So I am willing to pay ninety
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: six hundred dollars for her. Another reason I'm not going
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: to be getting to Plastria. I would rather just pay
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: two hundred dollars more for Mesquite Mosquito because I think
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: an average win for her scores more than Pilaster Ceiling.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree with that, but I do think
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: you're probably getting half the ownership with Pilastery, not that
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: I think we could just see Polastery like eight percent
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: so I like, this is just one where I'm I'm
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: just going to follow the line on this one, like
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: she's continued to take money or subprop continues to get hammered,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Like it just feels so obvious she's eventually going to
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: get it to the mat and when she does, she's
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: going to suburb. With all that being said, though, like
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: I mean alex Siva, she submitted Stephanie Egger in her
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: UFC debut as a big dog when people were on
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Egger to submit her really weird fight. She also like
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: she throws Haymakers. Now it's sloppy all this, but if
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: she does connect on Mosquita, I like, it wouldn't completely
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: shock me if we saw an alex Eva by Ko.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's better to bet it than THEFS. Maybe not,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: because if she does that, she's almost surely optimal and
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: no ownership. But man like, when she's out there, she
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: throws a bad intentions, there's no doubt about that. So
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I was a little surprised to see the line. But
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: it just keeps moving. Like the books, the autumns Makers,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: they see something like it's it's gonna be a free
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: take down it from there. It's so that kind of
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: took me off of alex Eva a little bit because
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: her losses could be like seven points, whereas Carolina her
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: loss could be like forty eight and still of the
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: chance where the ceiling, I would say, alex Eva has
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: a bigger one, but at those prices, we don't necessarily
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: need ceiling. So I take it you prefer KK as well.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was thinking about that as so, in like
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: the eighteen dollars contest one hundred k to first, I
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: think alex Eva makes more sense there because she has
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: a better chance of getting you one hundred k. But
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: if I was doing the five five five, where you
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: don't necessarily need the nuts to even win that fight,
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: I would uh that that contest.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, then I'd rather have KK in that.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Makes a lot of sense. Would definitely prefer Carolina in
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the five to fifty five as well. Yeah that's all
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: I got for that one, Big Driggs. What's going on? Man?
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Watching some football? Hey? Soon? Actually, right now, my brew
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: crew is on playing the Cubs. That might be extra
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: innings in the Dodgers. College football is on, NHL is on.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, what a night. Hey, we're tire talking fights though,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: got a nice twelve fight card in Brazil. But yeah,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: once we get off, there's a lot of sports to watch,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of sweating going on right now. I appreciation
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: and like Buddon, we always ask for that. That helps
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: us a ton. Subscribe button helps us out a ton
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: as well. Again you can see above five days for
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: nineteen dollars. You can try us out at schipinnation dot
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: com using the code ship nine, and we are gonna
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: give away one other membership. Y SM got the first
• 21:04
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• 21:07
  Speaker 1: not a member, let us know in the YouTube chat.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: We will be picking one before the show ends. Next
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: fight on the card, we are going to the Big
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Boys three Big Boy Oh shoot, there was three Big
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Boy cards fights on the card. Now there's two since
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: we lost Walker, but vitour Patrino minus three thirty Thomas
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Peterson plus two to seventy minus two ten for this
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: fight to finish, Patrino minus one thirty inside the distance
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Thomas Peterson plus four to twenty five Patrino round one
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: plus two seventy five. I'm gonna throw it to you
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: right away on this I see three point twenty five
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: takedowns per fifteen for Patrino. I see four point four
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: to two or takedowns per fifteen for Peterson. Do you
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: think this fight mainly plays out on the mat? How
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: do you see it going? Break it down?
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this could play out anywhere. Both guys
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: could end up striking in this one, and it could
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: be close in a striking match minute to minute. But
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: Patrino is just one of the scariest dudes. I love
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: the power from Patrino, and then maybe Peterson is a
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: better actual wrestler. But Patrino, I think is the stronger guy.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Maybe his power could make him be the better wrestler
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: in this one. I really am not sure enough to
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: give Patrino a minus three hundred line because I think
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Peterson keep this close anywhere. But I do think Patrino
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: could knock his head off in the first round.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: He could also take.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: Him down in every round and score pretty okay in
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: a decision. So I kind of like both sides of
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: this one. I am picking Patrino to get a knockout.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, I like seeing him get knockouts. He's just
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: such a scary striker. But if I end up with
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: more exposure to Peterson. I think I'd be okay with it.
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: I built one lineup earlier in the week, but Walker
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: was on it, So I don't even know what the
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: heck I'm gonna end up doing now, but I'd imagine
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: once I get back to building lineups, this will end
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: up in whatever that first lineup is that I build.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: So like a single entry or whatever you have it,
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: this is a fight I would want to target either
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: side of Maybe I start with Petreno, start building up
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: the lineup, see how it goes, and if I don't
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: like it, I take out Petreno, put in Peterson and
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: build from there.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: But I like this fight both sides.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: The worry would be that it does take place on
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: the feet and it is a minute to minute type
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: of fight. Neither one of those guys will score well
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: in that situation.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this fight too. I think I prefer Peterson,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: like I don't have a strong lean, but just like
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: if it was the minute to minute on the feet,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: and then like Peterson or got one takedown or whatever,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: he scored seventy two, like seventy two as a chance
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: as seventy one hundred to get there with Petrino. Well,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I saided earlier and I still agree. The upper tier
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is probably not as strong as last week's upper tier,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: but there's definitely upper tier fighters that have clear upside.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Now ninety five hundred, ninety six hundred, some of them
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: way up in the upper tier, but you still need
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: one hundred plus maybe one oh five plus up top.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: So like I don't ninety is very much in play
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: for Patrino, and I don't know if I want ninety. However,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: there's definitely upside for one hundred plus if he just
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: dominates the wrestling, like I don't think Peterson really gets up.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Peterson's tough to finish though he's a junkyard dog. He'll
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: walk forward and fight for your dollar. But man, just
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: like peer athleticism and just you look at these two
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: and they were in a bar fight, there's no chance
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: you're picking Thomas Peterson over Patrino. I don't believe the
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: one inch hide advantage. I'm excited to see wayans like
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: it could be two three inches says three inch three
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: each advantage. Yeah, I mean it's night and day when
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: you look at these two. But you can't always do
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: UFC like that. If you do like doing UFC like that.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Just play Patrino and not Peterson because they're gonna look
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: like two different species. But Peterson will fight for your dollar.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Junkyard dog. Both have takedown upside. Who's the better wrestler
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: might come down to probably Patrino because of his athleticism,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: but you're paying two k more for that, So yeah,
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: to fight, I want both sides of for sure. I
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: will say I do prefer the first fight, though in
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: a similar range, I do prefer le Sera to Olivera.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I believe you have them both four stars. Do you
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: have any preference there? If you had to pick what
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: fight's more likely to be optimal?
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: Dang, I don't know. I'd say that's close.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: I have less trust on the first fight. But maybe
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: that's a good thing, you know. Maybe, yeah, exactly give
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: me all the chaos.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. Maybe I have no idea. That's close.
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: I'd uh ask me in discord on Saturday, and I'll
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: see how my lineups end up.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: What I have more exposure to.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: I guess there you go. That makes some sense. All right,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, another
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: good fight. Clayton Carpenter minus one twenty five hufel Philo
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: plus one oh five plus one fifteen for this fight
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: to finish the underdog Filo better inside the distance propit
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: plus two ten Carpenter plus three point fifty. Very similar
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: to the last one in the sense of you go
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: and look at the takedowns over two for both guys.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Interesting though Filo the better inside the distance prop for
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: being the underdog, but it's also really not like if
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: you go look at his record almost all of his
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: wins by finish, where's Carpenter can go to decision? The
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: big difference we're looking at subprops in this fight Filo
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: plus three seventy five Carpenter plus five point fifty. Where's
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the st and the ko Filo plus six fifty Carpenter
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: plus nine to fifty. I was looking at this more
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: as like Carpenter probably edges it out on the feet,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: being more technical mixing stuff in better, whereas if it
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: hits the map. I mean, both are good wrestlers, but
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Fiela looks like the more dangerous grappler grappling upside in
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: this one. So for that reason, for being two hundred less,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I prefer Filo because I think he has more upside,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: But man, can Carpenter go out there and get five
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: plus takedowns, wear him out on top and get it
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: ninety eight that way?
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know that Carpenter has high ninety upside or not.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: I do think Philo is the more dangerous rappler of
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: the two, but I would think that Carpenter is probably
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: a little bit better of a wrestler and just more
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: active of a fighter. I trust him to shoot for
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: more takedowns throughout the fight, and if a fight doesn't
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: take place on the ground, then I like Carpenter to
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: be the better striker and the more active striker as well.
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: So I just think he probably does enough to win
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: this fight on the cards. And I don't know that
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: he's gonna want to get five plus takedowns against Philo,
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: whose best chance.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: Is gonna be on the ground.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: So I would think Carpenter kind of wants to keep
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: this fight standing, win his minutes there, and then if
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: Filo tries to shoot, maybe try to turn it around
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: on him, sprawl, get the takedown on him, stay safe
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: in top control. But if that is the case, you're
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: getting the sprawl in the top control, then you don't
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: even get the takedowns, so that's even worse. So I
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: don't know what I'm gonna do with this one. I
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: think it might even be closer to a two star
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: than a four star, and I don't even know who
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: my preferred side is. I would say, I'm just gonna
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: try to avoid this fight, and if I end up
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: with either of it, I'm okay with that. If I
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: was handbuilding and I ended up with Carpenter in the lineup,
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: I'd probably want to duplicate it, do the same thing
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: and put Filo in there too, But overall not if
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: I I'm looking to target, give me Carpenter to win.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's closer to a two than a
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: four star, probably too in a loaded mid tier range.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think I get to this fight too much.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's just more evenly matched open or it's
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: plus one ten on Monday to finish, not plus one
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: fifteen Like it's it's hard to see this fight getting
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: there going to the distance, So I don't love it
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: relative to others on the card. But it's not a
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: complete X fight since there is wrestling upside on both sides.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Man just two tilting outcomes in the last thirty seconds.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: I get this message. Little Jordan touchdown catch would have
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: been amazing. Then I see an Ian Hapholmer and the
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Brewers already now on three nothing in the first inning,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: So maybe you can only go uphill from here? All right, there,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: we will keep it going. Next fight on the card,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Michael asked, well, minus one four five. Lucas Al made
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: a plus one twenty five plus one ten for this
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. I'll made a plus two hundred inside
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: the distance as well, plus three seventy five. I mean,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: is this not like a copy and paste from the
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: last fight, like a little like pricing similar as was
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: a little bigger favorite, a little higher priced. But we
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: have the same inside the distance prop pretty much the
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: same inside of the distance props on both sides. I just
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: don't think this fight's gonna play out on the mat
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: like the other one. But I guess, like again, this
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: this is skewed. I put it on here, but he's
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: not gonna average nine point one significant strikes per minute
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: his whole career. Can you see this becoming a war though,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: because I think that's probably what we need for this
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: fight to get there?
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Um, yeah, it could be.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: It could definitely be a war, and I would think
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: a war favors ass Well minute wise because he is
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: a high paced striker, but he also eats a lot
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: of shots and I Made, I would say, is the
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: more dangerous striker of the two, and a war could
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: lead to I'm made to knocking as well out.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this one.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: I do like this one more though, And now I'd
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: say this one's probably closer to a four star rather
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: than a two star.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: It's just that I don't really have a preferred play.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't trust either side, but I do
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: think that either side could put up a decent score.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: And I honestly don't remember who I picked in this one,
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: so right now as I'm talking, that makes me kind
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: of lean al Mada rather save that thousand dollars. I
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: do think he could knock out as well in that
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: first round, But I did these fights on Sunday and
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: as well is kind of fading in my mind. I
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: remember the fight with him in Brogden Grad or something
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: like that. That was the Crazy Contender series fight, but
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: I only watched I want to say, two of his fights.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: I might have to go back and watch a little
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: bit more, but I think this one will be a
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: fun fight, low key fight of the night contender, but yeah,
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: give me now that I'm talking, give me the underdog.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I prefer the one k saving with Almeida as well,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: but yeah, like eight, I mean so as well. In
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the Contender series against grad, I was struck from one
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: to fifty five to one oh two, but was taken
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: down three times. Then as UFC debut, he was outstruck
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: one thirty six to one eighteen against Blagioki. But both
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: of those, I mean that those are big fights. Like
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: that's a lot of output right there. Someone can get
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: a third round or a second round finish.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: I like this.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you only know what tough he is because he
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: gets hit and that's not something we really like. So
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: I think Ameida has more pop. If it gets to
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: a war, just give me the one kse savings at
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: that point. So I think it's a good fight. Not
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: I would leave it a three star. I think I
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: would have it the same as you. I didn't really
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: disagree with any of your stars so far. Like I
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: prefer the the hoach Of fight, I prefer the Laserata fight,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: but I view it similar to the Carpenter fight, Like
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: you can see if it was optimal, I wouldn't be shocked.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: But I also don't want to be completely overweight. If
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: it was giving me fifty percent as well, I would
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: manually bump that down. That's just a little too much
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: for me. So solid fight has the ability to be
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: fun with a lot of volume. However, it is favored
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: to go the distance. Don't see really wrestling upside on
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: both sides, so probably need a KO. Yeah, it's also
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: a good point, is he is all right, let's keep
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: it rolling. Another three star fight for you. Ricardo Homos
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty con Ofly plus one fifty five minus
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: one fifteen for this fight to finish almost plus one
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: ninety five inside the distance Ofly plus three hundred. So
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: not much line movement in this fight at all. The
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: first some money it was minus one thirty Monday now
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: minus one fifteen money line pretty much did not change
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: on either side. When I look at this, I see
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Homos two point five seven takedowns per fifteen. I mean
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: he always loves his spinning shit like this. Dude. I
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: was there for the Danny Chavez Austin, Texas knockout. Oh man,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: that was that was scary. I mean, when it lands,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: it's it's nasty, but it hasn't landed really recently. Man,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Like I always remember the Jordaane fight, like Jordaines submits him,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: like come on, buddy, Like I don't know what to
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: do with Homos. Some one fight it look like a
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: million bucks. The other fight he looks like a flake.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Which one are we getting today?
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: I would I would hope this is one where he
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: could look like a million bucks because I don't think
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: Awfley is good. So I'm closer to a four star
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: on Ramos, two star off Awfully here, but I just
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: don't trust Ramos. He I think he is better everywhere,
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: but I don't trust him at all, and he does
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: like that spinning shit, and he could get taken down
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: off of some stupid spinning move that he does. And
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: if Awfully gets a takedown, I think he could hang
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: out in top control long enough to win that round.
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: I don't think he even does enough work in top
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: control where he has you know, ninety plus ceiling and
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: the decision, but he could get or around eighty. I
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: would think in the eighties would be fine at seventy
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: four hundred. So that's why I have it as a
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: three and a three because I'm not completely against Awfully
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: at that price.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, I just think he's awfully awful.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna I'm gonna pick Ramos to win, and
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: I think it could be by any method.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: I'll pick it to be by decision. And if that's
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: the case, what do we do with Ramos?
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: I feel like eighty eight hundred. I mean there's just
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: too many people around, like Laserta Hoach. I mean, heck,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: if I knew that, maybe even Oswal, I'd prefer the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Pento Denese fight, like I just obviously gamm raight only there.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I don't really want decisions on this card as a favorite.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean she could be by any methods, so
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know another one. I often just see where
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: my ownership ends up. But I would be fine with like, uh,
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent Ramos or forty five percent Ramos, and but
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: on the Offley side, it'd be more like five to
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: twenty will be okay.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if I had thirty percent, I don't think I
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: would say no to Aufuley.
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: I mean I personally would, because I got olive Era,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: I got Almeida and Nickel.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: I like those guys don't want to be on all them.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. It's like the price tag with the
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: money line with the fight expected to finish. Just seeing
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: that and just knowing how Homos can be a flake
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: on his worst days and fragile, like, I'm fine with
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: it at seventy four, I honestly don't have a preference
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: on the preferred side. Like Homos falls down the list
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: of my preferred fighters in the upper tier. He's not
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: going to hit like my top four that I always do,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: so probably awfully is my preferred play. But Tambo would
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: really love your your one liner right there hopefully is
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: awfully awful or whatever you said. That was pretty good.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: That's that's all I got.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Awfully awful.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, without even trying, he had a pretty good one.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: A right, A couple fights left. We are to the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: next one mid tier fight, the second of two heavyweight fights,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: and not to Denise minus one thirty five Mario Pinto
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: plus one fifteen minus won sixty for this fight to
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: finish Denise plus one eighty inside the distance Pinto plus
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: two hundred. I do not like to see that minus
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: two to fifty. This fight was to finish on Monday,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: now it's minus one sixty. That's a concern. I mean,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: if this fight does not finish, I do not see
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: it being optimal. Do you see either wrestling, Like neither
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: prefers wrestling. I think Pinto would be the one if anyone,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: probably denise the kickboxing background. But man, I think these
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: guys stand. I think they're a little worried about each
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: other's power and if something doesn't get through, like it
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: could be really boring. So I'm I have less interest
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: in this fight than I did Monday. I mean, minus
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: two fifty to finish versus minus one sixty, that's almost
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: a whole dollars. That's very noticeable and notable line movement. So, yeah,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: what's your take on this one?
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: I had to go back and see what my take
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: was actually, and I said that I don't think either
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: guy shoots in this one, and we'll probably get a
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: split decision type of fight from the judges. So that
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: makes me want to fade this fight, especially. I did
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: my four star just looking at minus two fifty inside
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: the distance, knowing that they both have power. But I
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: do think this could be a low paced striking match
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: where they both are durable enough to go three rounds,
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: and if it's gonna be heavily owned, then I'm gonna
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: go underweight to this one.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: The metrics make it.
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Look good, but yeah, they both are like decent enough
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: to survive. No one should be completely better anywhere. I
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: would say Pinto is the more powerful, scarier puncher, but
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: he's not a very active striker, and I think Denise
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: is just the cleaner, more technical kickboxer of the two.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: I picked Denise to win by split, but if it's
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: a split, I don't want exposure to either side. A
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: knockout I do want, so I'm not sure on this one.
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna lower that four star though I do know
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: that because the ownership will be there with a minus
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: two fifty inside the distance and it is right there
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: in the mid range. So maybe just underweight is my
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: play on this one.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I very well might start leading that way as well.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Denise is my preferred play just because of the four
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: hundred savings and a coin flip fight like you get
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: a little different leaving four hundred really easily. But man,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: right now, I very well might might switch that. I'm
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: gonna look at your projected ownership like always and build
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: out some teams, but Maleen is kind of underweight right
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: now too. Again, the mid tier is so strong. Main
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: events obviously way better as well. Mate, If you want
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: to call it mid tier, it's fine, so let's go that.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Obviously we both like Coach and nickelmore, but Carpenter fight
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: or this fight. You only can pick one.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: This fight just because I think they're both more likely
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: to finish.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, all right, So so far I only
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: have Dave and Dan that are interested in they're not
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: a member right now, and that are trying to win
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: a core membership. So we're gonna do one more fight,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: and then after that we're gonna do a little like
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: randomization thing. We're gonna I'm gonna pick like two fights
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: or something. You pick one fighter, Big Marley's gonna type
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in private chat, so it's gonna be the Petrino Peterson
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: and Mosquito alex Seva. So fights eight to nine. I
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: just picked two random ones. Do not say anything yet
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: in the chats. If there's anyone else that that is interested,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: you let us know. But otherwise Big Mothery's gonna have
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: a fighter in mind. You have one out of four
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: chance to get it right. If both of you get
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: it wrong on the first, we'll do it again. So
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: if anyone wants wants an entry again, you're not a member,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: let us know, and we're gonna give away one ninety
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: nine dollars core Sabersim package. All right, the highest or
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: tied for the biggest favorite on the car Joel Alvarez
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: minus six fifty Vicente Luk plus four to seventy five
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: minus four hundred for this fight to finish, Alvarez minus
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: two seventy five inside the distance Luk plus six hundred.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Alvarez in round one is plus one fifty. I mean, man,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: the UFC really had to do it like this. Luk
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: goes from ponds, old man ponds. We're gonna get a
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: little old man UFC that war out his ponds and
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: they give him this young I mean, he's thirty two,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: but he very well looks to be in his prime.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Stud Joel Alvarez is just better. Where have this fight goes?
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: I want a submission like, don't don't do Luk two dirty.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: It was not long ago before he was having brain
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: bleeds and all this stuff, like come on, be a
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: little nice, take him down, choke him out, have him
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: get up from a nap. I think Joelle can do
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: whatever he wants, though I'm worried that he knocks him out. Yeah,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: I think Luka is probably the worst play on the slate,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: one of them. I'm just really really high in Alvarez
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: in the spot. What about you?
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm Alvarez. I will yeah, so that's not
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: I know, I want a bunch of Alvarez here. But
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: on the other hand, I will get a little bit
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: of Luk. I mean, just in hopes that he can
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: shine the old Luk because, uh prime Luca I think
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: can hang with Alvarez. And Alvarez is only one fights
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: by finish, right, I don't think he's ever won a decision,
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: and I don't know what happens if this fight does
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: get to the third round. I would imagine he's fine.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, he looks like he's completely well rounded.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: He's just so almost did and he looked really good.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: What he had a third round finish Elvis Brenner, he
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: looked really in the third he was he was putting
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: it on him. He knocked him out in the third.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Let's see how much he outstruck him. Yes, three twelve
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: in the third round, he looked. Really, I'm not worried
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: about the cardio.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there's really nothing not to like about
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: Alvarez at this point. I think he could be a
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: future title contender, future title holder, gonna be the more
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: dangerous striker, more dangerous grappler. Yeah, nothing really not to like.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: But I will play a little bit of Luke because
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: I like him more than who are the two we
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: were talking about earlier Arena KK, Yeah, like him, probably
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: more than both of them. I think he's similar to
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: an Arena though, where I would rather have him in
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: the eighteen dollars and KK in five five five.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Agree with that. I would have lu K last out
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: of the three. But I do agree that KKs you
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: take the floor, like the floor matters in the five
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: fifty five or the one fifty or whatever, Like if
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: the contest is less than five hundred people, you don't
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: need the stones all the time, whereas you do more time.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: No in the eighteen So I agree with that statement,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: all right. No one else said anything, So we're between
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Dave and Dan again. It is fights eight and nine.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Vitor Petrino, Thomas Peterson, Mosquita and Alex Siva Big Marley
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: already told me. So you have one guess. You each
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: put one down below. If neither of you get it,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: then we will go to two more fights. But we
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: are two fights to talk about. You guys, put in
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: chat who your guess is, and it's completely random. There's
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: no rhyme or reason behind it. CO Main Events Montel
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Jackson taken on Davis and Figoredo minus three thirty five
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Montel plus two seventy five fig plus one thirty for
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish, Jackson plus one seventy five inside
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the distance fig plus five seventy five. I will never forget.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna find it to be safe. Demon Black Chare
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Montel Jackson. All right, Dan, you won, it was Patrina Petrino.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Shout out to you. Dan. You do get the ninety
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: nine dollars core package. Email info at Chipennation dot com.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: See if I can find say that you're Dan and
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: that you won the core package on the MMA show.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: So shout out to you Dan. Well maybe we'll give
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: away another one next week. We'll see. But appreciate all
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: seventeen of you hanging live watching on playback. Appreciate you
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: as well. Back to what I was saying, I'll never
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: forget your call against with Montel against black Year, what
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: deaded them in eighteen seconds. He has that type of power.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: You see averages over three takedowns per fifteen. There's ways
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: he can he can be an optimal, no doubt. Even
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: with this fight plus one thirty to finish like it
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: was plus one twenty, So the overs taking money, it's
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: just if he doesn't finish, and Figgy's tough man. There's
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: no doubt about that. It's hard for Montel to get
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: there at nine k if it goes a decision. But
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: man five inches in height, seven inches in reach, advantage
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: over three takedowns per fifteen has to be relative low ownership.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: He'll be in my pool. I don't love Figgy much.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know what kind of upside he has in
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: this one. What do you see?
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's sub or bust for Figgy. Montel
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: is just gonna be the better striker. I think he's
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: the better wrestler. He's gonna be so much bigger, stronger, longer.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: Figgy's always been the harder hitter in his in his
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: fights because it's been such a low weight class, and
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be the first time, He's not gonna
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: be the harder hitter.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Montel could knock him out. I will
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: be playing Montel.
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: I think he could go out there and laying five
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: six takedowns on Figgy too if he really wanted to,
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: but I think Montell probably wants to keep it standing.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: He's another guy who I think could be a future champion,
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: future contender type of guy. I always I don't think
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: I've ever picked against Montel, and I'm not gonna pick
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: against him here. Five star because I will be playing Montel.
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: I guess I'm overweight to him. And I got a
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: one star for Figgy because I'm not going to click
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: on any Figgy this week. Give me Montela to go
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: out there and an end Figgy.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Montel is definitely my preferred side too, and I do
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: think he has not sneaky up side. People might know it,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: but seeing the fight plus one thirty go the distance
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: and a pretty solid upper tier range, especially fights expected
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: to finish, I think he does come in pretty low
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: own and just like the casuals what I was talking
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: about earlier, with like the OLIVERA if people see Davis
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: and Figaredo for one hundred less and Olivera. Again, maybe
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: I'm discounting, like I know, the MMA fields got sharp,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: but I still believe there's people that sit on their
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: toilet to make a couple of teams, or they're with
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: their buddies or whatever and throw it in like they're
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: gonna play Davis and Figaredo over a lot of these
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: other people. Seeing that price tag, and I just I
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: would speak higher, probably see I hope so like I Yeah,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: I think OLIVERA is clearly the better play, better money line,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: better inside the distance problem, more upside. I don't even
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: think it's close. Yeah, it will be wild. Size difference
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: will be wild. Yeah, of course, Dan, of course, CARMEI
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: very nice of you guys, and our man Krmey he's
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: got Montel inside the distance as well. All right, main
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: event time again, appreciate every single one of you hanging
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: out like button subscribe button helps us out a ton,
• 46:00
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• 46:02
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• 46:06
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• 46:08
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  Speaker 1: college football, NHL, MLB, so much going on, NASCAR, NBA
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: will be back before you know it. We would love
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: to have you at the Nation main Eventsime Big Marley,
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: I wonder who you're on in this one Tayus Gamrock
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: minus one fourteen Charles olivera minus one oh six minus
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: two to fifty for this fight to finish, olivera plus
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: one fifteen inside the distance Gamrock plus two fifteen. A
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: lot of line movement in this one. Gamrock open minus
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: one forty five a day later, was the slight dog
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: at plus one oh five a day later after that
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: minus one oh two minus one ten, and just kept
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: going all the way down to minus one forty five
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: before Charles has taking some money in the past couple
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: of days. Now pretty much a pick'em. Are you worried
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: about Charles really recent and really really bad knockout loss
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: against Ilia or no, just because Gamrock's not that type
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: of fighter and then breakdown liar on Charles.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'd say I'm somewhat nervous about it, just
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: because I mean he was deaded and Gamrock does have
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: I would say knockout power more one punch power than
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: Oliver era has. Olivera's just so much more dangerous. He's
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: got a lot more ways to knock people out.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: But I also saw a video my guy.
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: Heygives Picks, posted on Instagram earlier today, and he said,
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: all these people that Toporia knocks out and you think
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: their career is about to be over because they're so dead,
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: they come back and they win their next fight.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: So he's got that going for him.
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: And I just think that OLIVERA is just so much
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: better than him everywhere, a better striker, better grappler, not everywhere,
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: because Gamrot's a better wrestler. If Gamrock wins his fight,
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: it's probably gonna have ten plus takedowns if OLIVERA wants
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: to stand up that much. I think OLIVERA will accept takedowns.
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: I think he will be fine hanging out on his
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: back for a while. But I don't think that Gamrot's
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: safe in top control. A guillotine could happen in the
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: first round, it could happen in the fifth round. I
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: also think OLIVERA could just dog walk him on the
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: feet and put him away there. But this fight's in Rio.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: I think that's gonna hype up oliver even more. He
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: was the one who was planning to be there. Gamrock
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: took this fight on somewhat short notice, and I think
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: that olivera anywhere in the world deserves this line but
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: in Rio, I would bump it up even more.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: So.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna with twenty or less lineups, I'm.
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: Gonna be all in on Oliver. That's just basically an
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: extra bet on Oliver for me. I already got a
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: little bit on him, but I want a little bit more.
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: So one hundred percent Oliver in my personal lineup, but
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: I have a two on Gamera because he has one
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: hundred and thirty point upside here.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: If you think he wins, play them for sure. Let's
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: say this fight goes the distance. How much of those
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: twenty five minutes it takes place on the ground A lot?
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: And I would say that Gamra is more alive to
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: win if it does go the distance, and he would
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: score well. So I would say half the fight takes
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: place on the ground, with Gamrot being the top control guy.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Gamrat is over two times likely to win a
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: decision plus two to seventy five versus plus six hundred.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: I agree with that.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: I think you would stay safe on top spend a
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: lot of time on top after wrestling, which would be
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: hard to give the other guy. The Phillys just lose.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Phillies might have just lost, which would be hard to
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: give Olivera the win if he spends majority of the
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: time on his back. Yeah, Phillies did lose. My Brewers
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: getting crushed too. One last thing I wanted to ask
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: about this fight. Then we're gonna head out and enjoy
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: some joy some sports again. Shout out to y s N.
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Shout out to Dan for the core memberships again. Email
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: info at ship nation dot com. I think in twenty
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: or less I will have one hundred percent of this fight.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: If I was making one to fifty, I would still
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: strongly consider making that rule. I guess. The only scary
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: part is Gamrock completely dominates the first two rounds and
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Charles gets his guillotine round three. So like, I can
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: see a path, but with only twelve fights, the mid
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: tiers strong, but like you can poke holes in some
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: of this stuff. Like I just think I'd rather play
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: this fight over like even Montel and leave the money
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: and get different that way. So because of their pricing,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: I'm debating doing it, But you agreed with like the
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: third round guillotine. So are you not gonna You're not
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: gonna make a rule.
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: Well, I'm just gonna I'm not gonna have one hundred
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: and fifty and I'm gonna have one hundred percent. I'm
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: gonna make my rule one hundred percent ol of air.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: I'm hitting a lot of button, But I one hundred
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: and fifty, I would I'd probably be all in. I
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: don't know that I would make a rule that I
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: have to be all in though, because I mean not
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: only the whole third round guillotine, but it could be
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: you know, a second round guillotine and they just get
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: outscored by other fights. But this isn't a big ceiling card,
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: so I think other cards that is that makes more
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: sense on. But there's like I don't know, like half
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: these fights have one hundred and ten point upside in
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: my opinion, so I don't know that that is very
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: love on this one. So yeah, I think you should
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: just load up on this one. This is my favorite
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: fight on the card by far. Alvarez, probably the best
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: fighter on the card, which is why I got the
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: five star there.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: But fight this is the one you want to be
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: all over.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, eight of the twelve fights are expected to finish.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, man, the only that's scary for you, you
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: got to expect zero dollars back is in play because
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: if Gamrat wins this fight, you could be looking at
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: one fifty like his upside is unmatched on this card
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: with how many takedowns is possible for him, So I
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: won't be making as strong of a lead. Just just
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: know when you make if Charles Oivera dominates, guess what,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: Big Marley's gonna be super super live for the shipper.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: But just know when you especially on a main event
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: and like against a high volume wrestler, it says it
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: all like Big Marley knows what he's getting at. I
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: just I just want others watching this to know if
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: you do make that lock Botton and Gamrock wins, like
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: you could be looking at a monster monster score that
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: that just didn't. Oh go your way. So that's all
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: I got any final thoughts.
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: On this card now, I'm basically making it just like
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: an extra bet. Uh what twenty lineups in the eighteen
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: dollars extra three to sixty on oliver A or something
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: like that. If I was making one hundred and fifty
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: in there I would not be doing one hundred percent OLIVERA.
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: But that's why I'm not doing one hundred fifty because
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: I don't even want the action on Gamro this weekend,
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: so I'm gonna keep it to twenty or less. Oliver
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: is gonna dog welcome in Rio and I'm gonna be
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: celebrating afterwards.
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: Can't wait.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: There you go. What a weekend we have on tap again.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: We got London football Sunday morning. We got two football
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: games on Monday as well, college football, MMA, NASCAR at HL.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of money to be made. Good luck
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: to everybody out there again. Shout out YSN and Dan
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: for the membership's email infoadshipenation dot com. Up on the
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: way out subscribe button helps us out a ton for
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Big Marley. I'm titled Be safe, Good luck, enjoy your weekend. Peace,