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2026 Week Zero Line Moves, Injuries and Upset Alerts · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

0:00
Speaker 1: On today's show, it's Friday, and tomorrow starts week zero.
0:06
Speaker 1: Can you believe it? It's football. I've been watching it
0:10
Speaker 1: for 40 years. Are you kidding me? You're listening to
0:15
Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything. Game day, baby. Wake up or get out.
0:19
Speaker 1: Here's your host. My confident young man. A superb athlete.
0:23
Speaker 1: Gary Segers. Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college
0:32
Speaker 1: football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on
0:36
Speaker 1: all the different socials. Hopefully, you are having a wonderful
0:40
Speaker 1: start to your Fridays, wherever that might be. It is
0:44
Speaker 1: week zero of the 2026 college football season. We got
0:46
Speaker 1: some storylines to discuss. We got some games to discuss.
0:50
Speaker 1: There's only eight FBS versus FBS games this week, but
0:54
Speaker 1: they are intriguing. It's definitely a good week zero slate.
0:59
Speaker 1: I'm happy about it. If you've not already, subscribe to
1:02
Speaker 1: the podcast. I would certainly appreciate that. Leave a nice
1:05
Speaker 1: five-star written review wherever you might be. And I don't know.
1:11
Speaker 1: Tell me what you think of the show. All the
1:13
Speaker 1: good stuff. We're going to be doing an audio podcast
1:15
Speaker 1: every single week. We're going to be doing, hopefully, two
1:17
Speaker 1: YouTube shows every single week. The schedule gets a little
1:21
Speaker 1: bit crazy this time of year. So I've got three kids.
1:25
Speaker 1: One of them... Lives in the Northeast now. Much older.
1:30
Speaker 1: Goes to college up there. All that good stuff. But
1:34
Speaker 1: one of them is up there, and then I have
1:35
Speaker 1: an 8-year-old and a soon-to-be 3-year-old. And there's a lot
1:40
Speaker 1: of extracurricular activities that are being done at this exact moment.
1:45
Speaker 1: So I get a little busy. I've got fun things
1:50
Speaker 1: going on in the next week plus. So while football
1:55
Speaker 1: season is rolling on, I am going to spend a
1:58
Speaker 1: little time in Atlanta. I'm going to spend an evening
2:01
Speaker 1: in St. Louis watching the Foo Fighters open for ACDC.
2:06
Speaker 1: So there's a lot that I'll be getting into. But
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Speaker 1: none of that has anything to do with today's show.
2:13
Speaker 1: We are going to go over some storylines. We're going
2:14
Speaker 1: to talk about line movements, see where my head is, and,
2:19
Speaker 1: you know, at least according to the comments, where you
2:22
Speaker 1: guys' heads are. for this week's zero slate, which is interesting.
2:27
Speaker 1: We'll start with the opening game, 11 a.m. I guess
2:30
Speaker 1: 12 p.m. Eastern, but 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone.
2:35
Speaker 1: That's right. That's right. North Carolina and TCU. This one
2:39
Speaker 1: on ESPN. It's at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. The
2:43
Speaker 1: Aer Lingus College Football Classic. And I told you on
2:46
Speaker 1: the YouTube show that the underdog has won outright this
2:53
Speaker 1: in three of the four games that have happened in
2:56
Speaker 1: the past four seasons. This one is a rematch of
3:00
Speaker 1: last year's opener, where TCU just absolutely beat the brakes
3:05
Speaker 1: off of Bill Belichick's debut team. And, I mean, it
3:10
Speaker 1: was not even, what, 48-14? Just absolutely absurd. TCU scored
3:20
Speaker 1: two defensive touchdowns. in that game, they outgained North Carolina
3:25
Speaker 1: 542 yards to 222. I mean, it was a complete disaster.
3:32
Speaker 1: So this year, North Carolina has rebuilt their quarterback room.
3:36
Speaker 1: Max Johnson is now at Georgia Southern. Gio Lopez is
3:40
Speaker 1: over to Wake Forest, where he reunited with his South
3:43
Speaker 1: Alabama offensive coordinator, Robby Zell. And Billy Edwards Jr. has
3:48
Speaker 1: won the starting job at North Carolina. Very talented guy.
3:51
Speaker 1: He's got a new offensive coordinator, Bobby Petrino. I'm intrigued
3:56
Speaker 1: in this. Bobby Petrino with Bill Belichick is interesting, if
4:02
Speaker 1: nothing else. And then TCU, of course, on the other side.
4:06
Speaker 1: Gordon Sammis is the new offensive coordinator. He comes over
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Speaker 1: from UConn. They brought in Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig.
4:14
Speaker 1: And boy, is there a lot of hype around this kid.
4:19
Speaker 1: the way that they are going to do their offense
4:20
Speaker 1: is going to change considerably. Kendall Bryles is no longer
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Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator at TCU. That's why Gordon came in.
4:26
Speaker 1: And Josh Hoover, of course, left to go to Indiana.
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Speaker 1: That is intriguing as well. The line on this one opened...
4:37
Speaker 1: I want to say it opened at 6.5. It pushed
4:41
Speaker 1: out to 7.5. And they are up to 9.5 now.
4:48
Speaker 1: I mean, it is all love for TCU. There's... It's interesting,
5:00
Speaker 1: if nothing else. I mean, it's a three-point move towards TCU.
5:03
Speaker 1: If this thing hits double digits, I might have to
5:04
Speaker 1: go the other way to make an actual play. The
5:10
Speaker 1: under is intriguing because four of the five... Dublin games
5:18
Speaker 1: have gone under the total. Not to mention the fact that,
5:23
Speaker 1: at least with the TCU offense, things are going to
5:26
Speaker 1: be slightly different as far as pace. But the games
5:30
Speaker 1: have gone under by an average of over 8 points.
5:35
Speaker 1: And that total has already ticked down 47.5 to 46.5.
5:39
Speaker 1: And the crazy thing about that is that if you
5:44
Speaker 1: look at bet shares... The public money is on the over.
5:51
Speaker 1: People love betting the over, but the line moved the
5:53
Speaker 1: opposite direction. So somebody really smart, or I guess you
6:01
Speaker 1: could call him a sharp, has gone in on the under.
6:04
Speaker 1: So I'm intrigued there. I'm not going to change my
6:09
Speaker 1: stance on this as far as the side. I'm kind
6:13
Speaker 1: of leaning North Carolina. Bobby Petrino coming out of the gate.
6:17
Speaker 1: Nobody has any clue what to expect. But also nobody
6:21
Speaker 1: has any clue what to expect out of TCU. So
6:25
Speaker 1: I think it could be low scoring. If it's low scoring,
6:28
Speaker 1: the fact that this thing is almost double-digit spread, I
6:32
Speaker 1: tend to go with the dogs with that. So that's
6:36
Speaker 1: the way I'm leaning. I don't feel great about it
6:38
Speaker 1: because how could you possibly feel great about North Carolina?
6:41
Speaker 1: Like it's just impossible. Impossible. Game number two. is at
6:46
Speaker 1: 2 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone. This one on NBC,
6:50
Speaker 1: and it's USC hosting San Jose State. This thing is
6:54
Speaker 1: all the way out at USC minus 39.5 now. I mean,
6:58
Speaker 1: it's the biggest number on the board. It's the only
7:00
Speaker 1: ranked team that's playing. Lincoln Riley's got the number one
7:03
Speaker 1: freshman class. He's got an FBS-leading number of returning starters.
7:09
Speaker 1: Gary Patterson, of course, in running the defense now. This
7:13
Speaker 1: year's kind of playoff or bust. Lincoln Riley is 9-0
7:16
Speaker 1: in season opener, so I don't know that there's any
7:19
Speaker 1: chance at all that San Jose State is going to
7:23
Speaker 1: pull off the upset. Jaden Maiva, he's back again. Led
7:28
Speaker 1: the nation with a 91.2 QBR. Threw for over 3,700
7:31
Speaker 1: yards last year. 24 touchdowns. There are some injuries to
7:36
Speaker 1: pay attention to. The center, Killian O'Connor, he's out for
7:40
Speaker 1: the season. Veteran Tobias Raymond. He slides over to center.
7:46
Speaker 1: And then you've got some other things like defensive lineman
7:49
Speaker 1: Jakeem Stewart. He's expected to miss at least the first
7:52
Speaker 1: three games with a foot issue. But, you know, there's
7:58
Speaker 1: quite the runway for USC. They don't play Oregon until
8:01
Speaker 1: Week 5. So Week 4, they do have to travel
8:05
Speaker 1: out to Rutgers, and that is the dreaded West Coast
8:08
Speaker 1: to East Coast trip. So we'll see what goes on there.
8:10
Speaker 1: San Jose State, Walker Egette. was the starting quarterback last year. So,
8:16
Speaker 1: Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver is going to get the first
8:19
Speaker 1: crack at the offense this go-round. Very interesting on the
8:24
Speaker 1: other side of the ball, San Jose State returns zero
8:29
Speaker 1: defensive starters from last year. And this is Ken Neomatalola's
8:35
Speaker 1: third year. They went 3-9 last year. It's kind of
8:39
Speaker 1: gone downhill, but I mean, the circumstances certainly make sense
8:44
Speaker 1: of it. Over 92% of the tickets are on the
8:50
Speaker 1: under 60.5%. It's the most bet under on the board.
8:55
Speaker 1: Nearly half of the money is on about 6% of
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Speaker 1: the tickets, and it's all on USC. Lincoln Rally 6-1
9:06
Speaker 1: against the spread in the first two weeks against Group
9:08
Speaker 1: of Six competition at USC. This number is getting a
9:13
Speaker 1: little bit out of hand. Nothing too crazy. It's not
9:18
Speaker 1: to 40 yet. But it certainly seems like a number
9:22
Speaker 1: that could be gotten. I felt a lot better about
9:25
Speaker 1: it when it was at, what, 36.5, I think it was. So,
9:31
Speaker 1: you know, anything under 40 I still would feel okay
9:35
Speaker 1: about because I don't think San Jose State is going
9:39
Speaker 1: to score a lot. But I also expect USC to
9:43
Speaker 1: score a lot. The way that this could go San
9:50
Speaker 1: Jose State's way, you get two touchdowns and USC calls
9:54
Speaker 1: off the dogs because they've got Fresno State next week.
9:59
Speaker 1: But I don't... expect them to call off the dogs.
10:05
Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley likes to put up some crooked numbers, especially
10:09
Speaker 1: early in the season. So this thing went from 38.5
10:11
Speaker 1: to 39.5 recently. So long as it's under 40, I
10:13
Speaker 1: still feel high about USC. Game number three, NC State
10:20
Speaker 1: and Virginia, 3.30 p.m. Eastern Time, 2.30 p.m. Central God's
10:24
Speaker 1: Time Zone. Of course, ESPN. And the Wolfpack and the Cavaliers,
10:30
Speaker 1: Virginia right now favored by 4.5. And this is kind
10:33
Speaker 1: of the injury game of the slate. The ACC's first
10:37
Speaker 1: injury report came out listed 18 Virginia players. 16 of
10:42
Speaker 1: them are out. The most notable... The wide receiver, Rico Flores,
10:46
Speaker 1: who transferred in from UCLA, he's projected WR1. Out with
10:51
Speaker 1: the hamstring issue, linebacker Cam Robinson and Corey Costner are questionable.
10:58
Speaker 1: Tyler Coleman, who's only got six career catches, but he's
11:04
Speaker 1: up next as wide receiver one, I would believe, and
11:09
Speaker 1: he's going to be making his first career start. Good
11:11
Speaker 1: things out of camp about him. NC State came out
11:14
Speaker 1: of camp clean. No key players are listed. Teddy Hoffman's
11:18
Speaker 1: out for the season with a positive PED test. So
11:22
Speaker 1: something to pay attention to there. C.J. Bailey, the quarterback
11:24
Speaker 1: for NC State, back for year three as the Wolfpack starter.
11:30
Speaker 1: Hollywood Smothers transferred over to Texas, so Jaden Scott is
11:33
Speaker 1: going to take over in the backfield. Virginia is going
11:36
Speaker 1: to go with Bo Pribula at quarterback. Missouri transfer, who
11:41
Speaker 1: came over from Penn State before that. Had 11 touchdowns,
11:44
Speaker 1: 9 interceptions last season. But he averaged running like 10
11:48
Speaker 1: times a game. Fairly certain they are going to run
11:52
Speaker 1: him in this game. Fully expect that. The game was
11:56
Speaker 1: originally scheduled for Rio de Janeiro. And then, of course,
12:00
Speaker 1: they moved to Charlottesville. And way more people started jumping
12:05
Speaker 1: in on Virginia at that point. A lot of people
12:08
Speaker 1: love their offensive line. They got a senior... Or, sorry,
12:14
Speaker 1: a fifth-year senior? Is that right? Yeah, fifth-year senior, two
12:18
Speaker 1: sixth-year seniors, and two seventh-year seniors on the offensive line.
12:21
Speaker 1: They should be pretty good over there. This thing opened
12:25
Speaker 1: at 5.5. And I say opened. This thing's been open
12:30
Speaker 1: since God knows when. But it's down to 4.5 now.
12:36
Speaker 1: The total has gone from 53.5 to 52.5. I don't
12:37
Speaker 1: know if that's because of the Rico Flores news or...
12:43
Speaker 1: If it's just the fact that, I believe I heard
12:46
Speaker 1: Tom Fornelli talk about this on Cover 3. There have
12:49
Speaker 1: been 21 Week 0 or Week 1 conference games, P4
12:55
Speaker 1: conference games, and the under is 17-4. Virginia last year
13:04
Speaker 1: ran the ball all over, or sorry, NC State ran
13:10
Speaker 1: the ball all over Virginia last year. C.J. Bailey didn't
13:13
Speaker 1: have to do a whole lot. And Virginia, of course,
13:16
Speaker 1: with Bo Pribula at quarterback and that offensive line, they're
13:19
Speaker 1: probably going to try and run the ball a lot too.
13:23
Speaker 1: Probably look at a first half under. I think that
13:27
Speaker 1: would probably be the way that I would go. I
13:29
Speaker 1: think it's sitting at 23.5, so it's not a great number.
13:33
Speaker 1: But early on, first game of the season, week zero,
13:38
Speaker 1: kind of expect not a lot of points. early in
13:43
Speaker 1: that one. Game number four, Jacksonville State at North Dakota State. 4.30 p.m.
13:49
Speaker 1: Central Time on CBS Sports Network. This one at the
13:53
Speaker 1: Fargo Dome. And right now, most places have North Dakota
13:57
Speaker 1: State favored by seven. I think you can still find
14:01
Speaker 1: some six and a halves if you like the North
14:03
Speaker 1: Dakota State side. I don't think you can find very
14:05
Speaker 1: many seven and a halves if you like the Jacksonville
14:07
Speaker 1: State side. This thing, this is North Dakota State's first
14:12
Speaker 1: FBS game ever. Ever. I expect that crowd to be
14:15
Speaker 1: absolutely lit for this. 10 FCS national titles since 2011.
14:20
Speaker 1: 18 total if you include D2. And they are now
14:24
Speaker 1: in the Mountain West. So the Bison had to pay
14:29
Speaker 1: the $ 5 million to expedite the move. They didn't make
14:32
Speaker 1: the move until I want to say maybe it was March.
14:39
Speaker 1: It is a huge... Huge spot for North Dakota State.
14:44
Speaker 1: Cole Payton was the quarterback there for head coach Tim Pulasik. Pulasik,
14:50
Speaker 1: I guess you could say. New quarterback is going to
14:53
Speaker 1: be Nathan Hayes, and I think they're just going to
14:56
Speaker 1: keep doing the same thing that they've always done. They
14:58
Speaker 1: return starters on both sides, including the interior offensive line.
15:02
Speaker 1: Their tight end, Kessel, is a name that you've got
15:04
Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Jack State, of course, made the
15:08
Speaker 1: same jump in 2023. They bring back their Superstar quarterback,
15:11
Speaker 1: Caden Creel. Got a really experienced offense. They are missing
15:17
Speaker 1: their running back, but I think they're still going to
15:19
Speaker 1: be pretty good over there. This is second year for
15:22
Speaker 1: head coach Charles Kelly. And big line move on this one.
15:28
Speaker 1: Opened around 10 at most books. It's been bet all
15:32
Speaker 1: the way down to 6.5 or 7. It's a three-point
15:36
Speaker 1: fade of that debut hype. But I don't think people
15:44
Speaker 1: really know what to do with it. Like, Koshi, the
15:47
Speaker 1: prediction market, it's quoting 114 cents round trip on both sides.
15:55
Speaker 1: So there's... People don't know which direction to go with this.
15:59
Speaker 1: I seem to think that the Fargo Dome is going
16:02
Speaker 1: to be a massive, massive advantage. Now, this is not
16:06
Speaker 1: one that I'm rushing to bet, you know, three units
16:09
Speaker 1: on or something like that. But if you just want
16:11
Speaker 1: a little pizza money on the action... I do feel
16:13
Speaker 1: good about North Dakota State at 6.5. At 7, I'm
16:17
Speaker 1: just kind of... I'm kind of staying away. I think
16:22
Speaker 1: there is a world where Jacksonville State can win this game. But,
16:25
Speaker 1: I mean, that's asking a lot. The first FBS game,
16:29
Speaker 1: they are going to be fired up for this thing.
16:34
Speaker 1: And I'm intrigued to see what they look like. North
16:36
Speaker 1: Dakota State plays a lot of really difficult road games
16:39
Speaker 1: in the Mountain West this year. So your home games...
16:43
Speaker 1: Certainly got to knock those out. And this is not
16:44
Speaker 1: a conference game or anything like that, but still going
16:47
Speaker 1: to be a huge, huge game. Game number five, Sacramento
16:52
Speaker 1: State and Eastern Michigan. This one's on ESPN +. It's 5.30 p.m.
16:55
Speaker 1: Central Time. It's in Ypsilanti. Sac State's first FBS game,
17:00
Speaker 1: but their first FBS game is on the road, and
17:02
Speaker 1: it's three time zones away. So I'm curious about this.
17:12
Speaker 1: They're Alonzo Carter is going into his first season as
17:18
Speaker 1: head coach. Brennan Marion was the coach there before. Ran
17:22
Speaker 1: the go-go offense. And now, it's like nobody has a
17:26
Speaker 1: clue what this team is going to look like. Other
17:30
Speaker 1: than the fact that they're not real deep. This does
17:35
Speaker 1: not look like an FBS roster to me. I don't
17:39
Speaker 1: know exactly what to think. Sac State brings back the
17:42
Speaker 1: running back Jamar Curtis. Name to know on the defense,
17:47
Speaker 1: probably defensive lineman Xavier Williams. Eastern Michigan, they are super physical.
17:54
Speaker 1: Anybody that has listened to this show knows how much
17:56
Speaker 1: I like Chris Creighton. This line has been kind of stable. 8.5
18:05
Speaker 1: to 9.5, something like that. I want to say it
18:08
Speaker 1: was up at double digits at some point. My numbers
18:11
Speaker 1: don't get to double digits anymore. That does not mean
18:13
Speaker 1: that it can't get there. Noah Kim is back at
18:16
Speaker 1: quarterback for Eastern Michigan. This is going to be quite
18:21
Speaker 1: the shock to the system, I think, for Sac State.
18:27
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you, I don't really like the idea
18:29
Speaker 1: of Eastern Michigan as a favorite. Chris Creighton is in
18:32
Speaker 1: year 13 at Eastern Michigan, which is nuts to me.
18:37
Speaker 1: Absolutely nuts that he's been there for that long. But
18:41
Speaker 1: he's been around for a while. And, I mean, this
18:46
Speaker 1: is certainly the year, I mean, they bring back a ton.
18:49
Speaker 1: I think they're number 33 in the country in returning production.
18:52
Speaker 1: If I had to lean a certain way, I would
18:55
Speaker 1: go Eastern Michigan on this, just because I don't buy
18:58
Speaker 1: into Sacramento State at all. I don't think that this
19:02
Speaker 1: is a good football team. But, alas, we will see.
19:10
Speaker 1: Because I am intrigued. I am intrigued by it. Game
19:16
Speaker 1: number six, this one's at 6 p.m. Central Time on
19:19
Speaker 1: the ACC Network. Stanford hosting Hawaii, and last year, the
19:25
Speaker 1: last year on the island, Hawaii got that win 23-20. Now,
19:30
Speaker 1: the doctor that was playing quarterback for Stanford last year
19:37
Speaker 1: was not very good, and they kept trying to throw
19:39
Speaker 1: the football, even though they had a massive advantage in
19:44
Speaker 1: the trenches. They were able to run the football and
19:47
Speaker 1: yet they just kept making mistake after mistake. It was
19:51
Speaker 1: very interesting to watch. The line right now is Stanford
19:55
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, and I think Stanford has
20:00
Speaker 1: the advantage on the line of scrimmage again, but they
20:04
Speaker 1: are dealing with some injuries, which is why this line
20:06
Speaker 1: has shifted. I want to say it was at six
20:08
Speaker 1: at some point. 5.5, 6, and it has been bet
20:12
Speaker 1: back down. Total is 48.5 on this one. So as
20:19
Speaker 1: far as injuries, Hawaii's preseason all-mountain west wide receiver, Ashlock,
20:24
Speaker 1: had been recovering from a knee injury since camp opened
20:27
Speaker 1: back in late July. There's no timetable on that. He's
20:34
Speaker 1: banged up rather than out. I'm curious to see what's
20:39
Speaker 1: going to happen there. Stanford was dead last nationally in
20:43
Speaker 1: pass defense last year. Gave up 289 yards a game.
20:49
Speaker 1: Tevita Pritchard, the new head coach, he's got some things
20:54
Speaker 1: to work on here. So brought in Michigan transfer quarterback
20:57
Speaker 1: Davis Warren. Has four returning offensive linemen. Now obviously they've
21:01
Speaker 1: had some injury issues and we'll see what happens as
21:06
Speaker 1: far as that is concerned. This one, Stanford opened it,
21:11
Speaker 1: or not didn't open, but it got up to minus six.
21:15
Speaker 1: And now it's been bet back down to three and
21:16
Speaker 1: a half again. Hawaii's got like almost 80% of the
21:21
Speaker 1: spread handle. Which is kind of crazy considering that over
21:27
Speaker 1: 60% of the tickets are on Stanford. Which means there's
21:29
Speaker 1: a lot of actual money on Hawaii. Um. Timmy Chang,
21:37
Speaker 1: 3-0 against the spread in his first game against Power
21:39
Speaker 1: Forward competition. Like in the last three seasons, he tends
21:43
Speaker 1: to know how to do this. This seems like it's
21:46
Speaker 1: going to be an interesting ballgame. But I'm curious about
21:51
Speaker 1: that offensive line for Stanford. I'm curious what they're going
21:54
Speaker 1: to look like. Physically, talent-wise, etc., they should be significantly better.
22:02
Speaker 1: And when it comes to being a coach where you've
22:04
Speaker 1: got a massive talent advantage at the line of scrimmage,
22:08
Speaker 1: It should be just simple football. I think that Andrew Luck,
22:14
Speaker 1: the GM there, knows how this thing is supposed to operate.
22:18
Speaker 1: So we're going to see what this looks like. I
22:21
Speaker 1: tend to lean Stanford here, even with some offensive line news. But,
22:29
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you don't feel good about it because
22:30
Speaker 1: you don't know exactly what kind of a head coach
22:32
Speaker 1: Davida Pritchard is going to be. So if I had
22:35
Speaker 1: to lean away, still leaning Stanford... Don't feel great about it.
22:40
Speaker 1: But obviously that's why we play the games. We'll see
22:42
Speaker 1: what happens. Game number seven. New Mexico State at Florida State.
22:46
Speaker 1: This one at 6 p.m. Central Time. This one on
22:49
Speaker 1: the CW. So national broadcast. Ain't got to worry about
22:54
Speaker 1: having cable for this one. This one's in Tallahassee. Florida
22:57
Speaker 1: State all the way out to a 32.5 point favorite.
22:59
Speaker 1: I got this one at 30.5. Still feel pretty good
23:00
Speaker 1: at 32.5. If only because... I think this is a
23:11
Speaker 1: game where you've got to feel good. You've got to
23:14
Speaker 1: come out. You've got to put up numbers. You've got
23:16
Speaker 1: to build some confidence. Make yourself feel good. And Florida
23:19
Speaker 1: State's kind of known for doing that. Florida State went
23:23
Speaker 1: 5-7 last year. They had just two conference wins. Ashton
23:29
Speaker 1: Daniels is going to be the starting quarterback. Played at
23:32
Speaker 1: Auburn last year. He was at Stanford before that. Threw
23:35
Speaker 1: for 797 yards in four games at Auburn last year.
23:39
Speaker 1: But I think that he kind of fits what Norvell
23:44
Speaker 1: likes to do on offense. And let's not kid ourselves.
23:50
Speaker 1: The reason that Norvell is still there is because his
23:52
Speaker 1: buyout is over $ 50 million. At some point, if they
23:58
Speaker 1: don't perform well, the plug will get pulled on him
24:02
Speaker 1: this year, I would imagine, even though the buyout is
24:04
Speaker 1: still astronomical. It's still huge. they didn't spend a ton
24:09
Speaker 1: on this roster. So it's kind of a fin for yourself.
24:13
Speaker 1: If you can find a way to win ball games
24:15
Speaker 1: with this little amount of NIL, then, you know, we'll
24:19
Speaker 1: figure it out from there. But this is the kind
24:24
Speaker 1: of game, I mean, don't forget Florida State has SMU
24:26
Speaker 1: coming up next Monday on Labor Day at home. Um,
24:32
Speaker 1: New Mexico State's quarterback, their starter is 5-18 as a
24:36
Speaker 1: starter with the fourth worst passer efficiency in FBS since 2023.
24:42
Speaker 1: I mean, it's pretty rough. But when you look at it,
24:46
Speaker 1: New Mexico State has covered three straight as a dog.
24:49
Speaker 1: They're 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as
24:51
Speaker 1: an underdog. The line was at 30.5. It jumped to 31.5.
24:54
Speaker 1: It's out to 32.5. 79% of the tickets are on
24:56
Speaker 1: the under. But this is Florida State last year with
25:07
Speaker 1: Gus Malzahn at quarterback put up some outrageous numbers. They
25:11
Speaker 1: beat Alabama and then they scored, what, 62 on somebody
25:15
Speaker 1: and 77 on somebody else. They really smoked teams that
25:21
Speaker 1: were overmatched. But obviously Gus is not there anymore. Was
25:30
Speaker 1: that just a Gus thing to make sure that Their
25:33
Speaker 1: numbers look good all year. Anytime they overmatch somebody, they
25:37
Speaker 1: want to make sure their offensive numbers were good. With
25:40
Speaker 1: this one, they may not care. They just want to
25:42
Speaker 1: make sure people don't get hurt. I don't know. I
25:44
Speaker 1: still feel like Mike Norville likes to put up numbers.
25:50
Speaker 1: So I'm thinking Florida State here, but my model certainly
25:57
Speaker 1: does not think that. Model thinks this should be in
26:00
Speaker 1: the 20s. So I'm not playing it one way or
26:04
Speaker 1: the other. When I gave it out on the show
26:06
Speaker 1: on Monday, I leaned Florida State minus 30.5. But that
26:12
Speaker 1: thing has moved two points since then. So, you know,
26:16
Speaker 1: this is more or less a stay-away game for me.
26:19
Speaker 1: But I am curious to see what Florida State looks like.
26:22
Speaker 1: It's more so, can you not shoot yourself in the foot?
26:25
Speaker 1: How can you avoid that? That's what I would like
26:27
Speaker 1: to know. And then finally, last game of the night,
26:29
Speaker 1: 9 p.m. Central Time on Fox. big fox this one
26:33
Speaker 1: at allegiance stadium unlv hosting the memphis tigers unlv now
26:37
Speaker 1: a four and a half point favorite with a total
26:39
Speaker 1: of 56 and a half uh easily the best game
26:41
Speaker 1: on the board this week and the one that i
26:45
Speaker 1: think everybody's going to care about the most this week
26:47
Speaker 1: this is kind of a group of six cfp eliminator
26:51
Speaker 1: unlv has got 30 wins over the last three seasons
26:54
Speaker 1: they were number 20 in the cfp rankings before selection
26:57
Speaker 1: sunday last year they're um Everybody likes Dan Mullen, right?
27:03
Speaker 1: UNLV coach. If they have another big year, he's probably
27:07
Speaker 1: going to be back in the P4. We'll see if
27:11
Speaker 1: his former job in Starkville is open or not. Obviously,
27:14
Speaker 1: we'll see. But neither one of these teams has officially
27:18
Speaker 1: named a starter. With Memphis, it was reported by a
27:21
Speaker 1: couple of different places that Marcus Stokes is going to
27:24
Speaker 1: be your starter. But more than likely, both quarterbacks are
27:27
Speaker 1: going to play. Aaron Noland and Marcus Stokes. For UNLV...
27:31
Speaker 1: Mullen did not name a starter. So Michigan transfer Alex
27:35
Speaker 1: Orji or Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold. Both I think are
27:43
Speaker 1: going to play. I wouldn't look into which one starts
27:49
Speaker 1: the game. I wouldn't worry about that. Orji suffered a
27:54
Speaker 1: grade 3 LCL tear and a severe hamstring injury in
27:59
Speaker 1: week 2 last year. So he missed most of the season.
28:07
Speaker 1: I'm interested in the roster churn. I'm interested in what
28:11
Speaker 1: Memphis is going to look like. Memphis is going to
28:14
Speaker 1: have 11 new defensive starters. They're going to have nine
28:17
Speaker 1: transfers on offense. And, you know, that includes ex-Ohio State
28:21
Speaker 1: running back Dallin Hayden. UNLV's got more defensive stability, but,
28:28
Speaker 1: I mean, people could carve through them like butter last year.
28:31
Speaker 1: So I'm curious. This number went from UNLV minus six
28:36
Speaker 1: down to now four and a half. 76% of the
28:39
Speaker 1: spread money is on Memphis. So typically I don't like
28:42
Speaker 1: going with the public. But this does feel like one
28:45
Speaker 1: of those where Memphis has the more talented roster. But
28:51
Speaker 1: there's also a lot of unknowns. UNLV you feel good
28:56
Speaker 1: about because they're at home and you know at least
29:00
Speaker 1: some of the rosters. I'm interested. No road favorites anywhere
29:07
Speaker 1: this week. But that's, you know, that's to be expected.
29:14
Speaker 1: Under Money is everywhere right now. Like, on all of
29:19
Speaker 1: these games. So, as far as UNLV Memphis, like, I
29:26
Speaker 1: would lean Memphis. I'm certainly going to have a round
29:28
Speaker 1: Robin going. Uh, I'm going to do a round robin
29:33
Speaker 1: with North Carolina, Memphis, NC State, and... am I going
29:40
Speaker 1: to do Jacksonville State or... Yeah, I'm going to do
29:45
Speaker 1: a Jacksonville State on that round-robin. And I'll probably play
29:49
Speaker 1: a Yankee, so it's all the different things. Two-game parlays,
29:54
Speaker 1: three-game parlays, four-game parlay, you know, etc. No single betts.
29:58
Speaker 1: And we'll just see what happens. Early in the season
30:01
Speaker 1: is when you can find some good round robin opportunities.
30:05
Speaker 1: So pay attention to those. I'm not going to do
30:06
Speaker 1: any money line parlays or anything like that. There's only
30:09
Speaker 1: eight games this week. I mean, it is what it is.
30:13
Speaker 1: This is technically, I think, the last week zero. The
30:17
Speaker 1: NCAA voted in July 2026 that they were going to
30:20
Speaker 1: standardize the 14-week season. And they'll end the waiver process
30:26
Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. So The fact that
30:28
Speaker 1: Week Zero even exists, we can thank Hawaii for that
30:30
Speaker 1: because a lot of teams got to play that 13th
30:36
Speaker 1: game because of the trip to Hawaii in non-conference. Mountain
30:41
Speaker 1: West didn't get that opportunity, but that's the way it goes.
30:49
Speaker 1: You know, obviously two brand new FBS programs debut on Saturday,
30:53
Speaker 1: North Dakota State and Sacramento State. Four of the eight
30:59
Speaker 1: games have almost 80% of the tickets on the under
31:01
Speaker 1: this week. Look for that to continue in week one. And,
31:07
Speaker 1: you know, week zero lines, I mean, they can swing
31:09
Speaker 1: two or three points just on quarterback news alone. I'm
31:13
Speaker 1: curious what that's going to mean for UNLV and Memphis,
31:16
Speaker 1: who both will end up, you know, at some point
31:19
Speaker 1: announcing starters. I would just pay attention to what's happening there. So,
31:27
Speaker 1: with that said... I think it's time to get out
31:30
Speaker 1: of here. It's going to be an interesting week zero.
31:32
Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. Hopefully you are subscribed. If you
31:35
Speaker 1: haven't already, subscribe on the YouTube channel as well. Three
31:37
Speaker 1: Dog Thursday came out yesterday. So we are starting off
31:41
Speaker 1: with a bang there, TJ and Jason Powers. Doing it
31:44
Speaker 1: big every single week, every single Thursday, 10 a.m. Eastern,
31:49
Speaker 1: 9 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone. So going to
31:53
Speaker 1: be a good year. I'm excited about it. Hopefully you
31:55
Speaker 1: are as well. With that said, oh, don't forget, betting... CFB.com
32:01
Speaker 1: or buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. You can support the show there,
32:04
Speaker 1: become a member. I'll be posting plays. I'll be posting
32:07
Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff. So knock it out of the
32:10
Speaker 1: park if you would so kindly. But that's it. Let's
32:15
Speaker 1: get out of here. Take care of yourself. Take care
32:17
Speaker 1: of each other. God bless college football and hopefully all
32:21
Speaker 1: of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening to
32:24
Speaker 1: Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment, follow
32:29
Speaker 1: at GaryWCE on X, and check out the web store.